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浴缸潜水员

浴缸潜水员

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浴缸潜水员

2021-08-27

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Daiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28

浴缸潜水员

2021-08-19

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浴缸潜水员

2021-07-26

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浴缸潜水员

2021-06-19

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@何安迪:一夜之間從65美元到清零，幣圈最大的噩夢終於出現了

浴缸潜水员

2021-03-16

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浴缸潜水员

2021-03-07

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Revelation from the sharp drop

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2021-03-07

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@格隆汇:SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼

浴缸潜水员

2021-03-07

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@生财小王子:搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白

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2021-02-22

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-21

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-20

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In-depth reflection: What exactly is the value logic of Bitcoin?

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2021-02-13

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-12

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Is the prospectus of "Nayuki Tea" as sweet as tea?

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2021-02-11

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-05

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Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks trigger a "short squeeze," with Liulishuo surging 250%.

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2021-02-02

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@Brain樣:你可能不知道的大衆汽車軋空慘案

浴缸潜水员

2021-02-01

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@青年财经资讯:中信香港銀行卡使用指南

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2021-01-15

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"New Bond King" Gunlak Looks Ahead to 2021: A Year of Tremendous Change

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2021-01-14

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@互联网怪盗团:每個人都有必要認真學習“財務報表分析”這門基本功

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2021-01-12

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13:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Daiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162010633","media":"新浪港股","summary":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<p><html><body><div><div><div><img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/hk_stock/min_660/01810.gif\"/></div></div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintained the target price of Xiaomi (01810) of HK$28, which is equivalent to the forecast market ratio of 28 times, while raising the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"hold\" to \"outperform\".</p><p>The bank believes that the recent correction of Xiaomi's share price and the flexibility of fundamentals under the regulatory crackdown have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was steadily better than expected, and the gross profit margin of hardware business in the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectation. The Group announced the acquisition of Deep Motion, an autonomous driving technology company, for its new electric vehicle business, believing that its strategy to gain market share in its products and sales channels has been effective.</p><p><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪港股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 13:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div><div><img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/hk_stock/min_660/01810.gif\"/></div></div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintained the target price of Xiaomi (01810) of HK$28, which is equivalent to the forecast market ratio of 28 times, while raising the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"hold\" to \"outperform\".</p><p>The bank believes that the recent correction of Xiaomi's share price and the flexibility of fundamentals under the regulatory crackdown have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was steadily better than expected, and the gross profit margin of hardware business in the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectation. The Group announced the acquisition of Deep Motion, an autonomous driving technology company, for its new electric vehicle business, believing that its strategy to gain market share in its products and sales channels has been effective.</p><p><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">新浪港股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2ef4a4294363170f247fce5d7ae479","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2162010633","content_text":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831787129,"gmtCreate":1629349936161,"gmtModify":1676530011386,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831787129","repostId":"1151591091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800304338,"gmtCreate":1627275675924,"gmtModify":1703486543161,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This 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雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","listText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","text":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb8429eedd000b87168acb260f2d7f2","width":"240","height":"159"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37515ff8aca46379b035ee5dfd148e9e","width":"550","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d949c356dc8ddbd3d861ef8132360e2d","width":"300","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166207379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325998229,"gmtCreate":1615855630161,"gmtModify":1704787473807,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325998229","repostId":"2119141992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296276,"gmtCreate":1615108172395,"gmtModify":1704778712701,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296276","repostId":"1150364023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150364023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615082582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150364023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Revelation from the sharp drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150364023","media":" 阿基米德Biotech","summary":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世","content":"<p>Legend has it that fish only have 7 seconds of memory.</p><p>How many days can an investor's memory last?</p><p>We feel that today is terrible, but we have forgotten that the market almost hit the daily limit down on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we have also forgotten that the maximum drop was 20% after the ChiNext index peaked on February 25 last year.</p><p>After a while, I'll forget about the hardships of these past few days.</p><p>The world will remain the same for some time to come; the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for the long term will not change.</p><p><b>About the cycle</b></p><p>The sharp drop after the Spring Festival should not be overstated; for now, it should be seen as a repetition of the standard process after the end of the spring rally, something that happens every year.</p><p>The decline in core assets was greater than in previous years because they rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal pleasure will inevitably have a brutal end.</p><p>A spring rally is bound to come. Even in the bleak and rainy year of 2018, the SSE 50 index saw 19 consecutive days of gains. The spring rally will definitely pass, and I'll tell you that those who experience a bull market are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market would last for about two months, with the highest point almost corresponding to the largest trading volume. During the decline, the volume would gradually decrease, and the decline would be rapid, reaching a low point within a month. Over the past two years, after the spring rally ended, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the ChiNext Index saw a maximum drop of 20%.</p><p>The market has fallen less than in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that cannot see the future, but it can illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will the price continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The US 10-year Treasury Bond yield continued to rise, indicating a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising in tandem. There is no longer any possibility of marginal easing in monetary policy; the only question left is when to shift.</p><p>Therefore, warnings immediately emerged: many people have not experienced the complete cycle and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stock cycles.</p><p>All I want to say is: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Do you know why we only invest in biopharmaceuticals? I just don't want to care about the macro and cyclical aspects.</p><p>In the midst of a systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>However, as long as the main downturn is weathered and the market enters a period of fluctuation, even if it is a gradual decline, the biopharmaceutical industry is not afraid. The advantages of certain growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own trajectory, resulting in a structural market trend.</p><p>The deleveraging in 2018, even if the memories are not good, may still be reminiscent. The market began a year-long decline in February, but CSI Healthcare and CSI Pharmaceutical hit new highs on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and the first centralized procurement, they could have maintained positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Today, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically weather bull and bear markets, and we need to have firm confidence in adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Regarding timing</b></p><p>An important phenomenon in the correction following the end of this spring rally is that trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only trading volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have been implemented yet, and it is also possible that residents' assets can be hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that newly launched funds still had 565.5 billion yuan to build positions, and 72 more equity funds were about to be raised, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Buffett's words are full of wisdom and never outdated; macroeconomic forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>The macroeconomic aspects are unclear, so I won't predict whether the bull and bear markets will shift or how liquidity will tighten in the future. I won't exaggerate the timing.</p><p>Risk appetite also needs to be maintained. Are you afraid when it falls, but wonder why you were afraid in the first place when it rises?</p><p>Have you experienced multiple rounds of ups and downs, or are you still unable to overcome this human nature?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too detached from worldly affairs. The pattern of autumn and winter pullbacks, spring rallies, and subsequent sell-offs is very obvious and can be exploited. However, investing based on predictions of bull and bear market shifts and a full-year decline is too timely.</p><p>Systemic risks will eventually pass. As long as the company itself does not collapse and its growth logic remains intact, it will eventually recover.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. Young fund investors' money cannot be concentrated in traditional industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream investment should still be in growth stocks with decent fundamentals.</p><p>The current problem is that valuations are indeed too overdrawn. Once they fall to a certain level, they become valuable. Leading high-quality assets are digesting their valuations and finding a balanced center. We can observe two anchors: one is Hengrui Medicine, which, if the existing valuation system does not collapse, will be the anchor of the entire biopharmaceutical sector; the other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling, as the trading volume was not large enough during the entire pullback/retracement.</p><p>The Shanghai Composite Index is still a long way from its target level, while the ChiNext Index is almost there. We should remain cautious and not be overly pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. Once systemic risks are released, investors should return to their fundamentals and growth potential.</p><p>liquidity tightening has no impact on biopharmaceutical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotions and timing are not the most important things; stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous quote from Sun Tzu's \"The Art of War\" is: \"Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.\" I didn't understand why such a bland expression was regarded as the golden rule. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is understanding, and it starts with understanding yourself. Experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement should have touched your hearts, and you can consider reflecting on it from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Do your stock holdings match your risk appetite? If you have a poor risk tolerance, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to overvalued, unprofitable, and highly volatile stocks, and to avoid heavily investing in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to handle the relationship between short-term and long-term? If you are very concerned about short-term returns, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to stocks that have great long-term potential but are a mess in the short term.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Organize stocks that are beyond your understanding. High valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitability are difficult to understand. You can choose stocks that you can understand. This will make your stock holding mindset more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses. Give yourself a chance to survive and give good stocks a chance to prove themselves. Tongce Medical, Aier Eye Hospital, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guardian have experienced huge declines. How can they remain completely unnoticed? No need for inner strength; index-based diversified allocation of holdings provides a ballast and a sense of layering. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Kangle Guardian have experienced multiple sharp declines, but they will rise even higher afterward because their allocations are tolerant of short-term mistakes. Don't give yourself a chance to expose your weaknesses, and don't push good stocks to the brink of collapse.</p><p>The emotional standard for measuring whether a portfolio position is reasonable is to feel comfortable and free from pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment matures through ups and downs, and nothing is smooth sailing. Measuring investment on an annual basis is much more relaxed.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic behind CXO's high growth is very strong. High valuations are not entirely due to group buying; once the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>Going away is like pulling silk, and the medical services sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, seeking a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>Tongce Medical's fundamentals and growth potential remain unchanged; the only problem is its high valuation, the controversy surrounding short-term fund alliances, and the loosening of its holdings.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the company continued its good operating trend in the fourth quarter and January of this year, opened on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, achieved good year-on-year growth, and its fundamentals were stable.</p><p>The two future growth curves are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached break-even within six months, demonstrating the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as bad as expected, and Wuhan has achieved very good results. In October 2020, the company's monthly revenue was around 5.5 million yuan, reaching the break-even point. Xi'an Cunji is a hope for expansion outside the province. It is better developed than Wuhan, and its location and talent pool are excellent. The trial operation began on October 9th, with an average monthly revenue of 3 million.</p><p>In the dental implant business, Zhejiang Province has approximately 300,000 dental implants per year, compared to South Korea's 3 million dental implants per year. Zhejiang Province has a huge future market potential for dental implants.</p><p>In the orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce's development of its own digital oral system is more conducive to promoting orthodontic services.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 was 550 million yuan, and it is expected to maintain a 30% growth rate over the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 70, which means that the performance has been overdrawn for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overruns and whether it can maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good sector, it is exclusively profitable, while others suffer losses and have almost no sales expenses, so it can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor amidst volatility; first, cautiously observe the results.</p><p>Time heals all; this isn't motivational quotes.</p><p>Dentistry is a nationwide consumer market, with leading companies having a market capitalization of less than 100 billion yuan. Will this remain the case forever?</p><p>Volatility is normal in the market; sometimes extreme situations can occur, which is inevitable from the moment you enter the market. Even after experiencing multiple rounds of ups and downs, we always become more optimistic when we are optimistic and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right from wrong, but acting on it is a different matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like a person who doesn't get sick, who gets sick once and then gets sick like a mountain. The month after the spring rally ended and the month at the end of the year were both severely affected.</p><p>They expressed a very pessimistic view during the peak of the spring market rally. Now, I also want to say, everything will pass.</p>","source":"lsy1611662960640","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Revelation from the sharp drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRevelation from the sharp drop\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 阿基米德Biotech</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Legend has it that fish only have 7 seconds of memory.</p><p>How many days can an investor's memory last?</p><p>We feel that today is terrible, but we have forgotten that the market almost hit the daily limit down on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we have also forgotten that the maximum drop was 20% after the ChiNext index peaked on February 25 last year.</p><p>After a while, I'll forget about the hardships of these past few days.</p><p>The world will remain the same for some time to come; the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for the long term will not change.</p><p><b>About the cycle</b></p><p>The sharp drop after the Spring Festival should not be overstated; for now, it should be seen as a repetition of the standard process after the end of the spring rally, something that happens every year.</p><p>The decline in core assets was greater than in previous years because they rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal pleasure will inevitably have a brutal end.</p><p>A spring rally is bound to come. Even in the bleak and rainy year of 2018, the SSE 50 index saw 19 consecutive days of gains. The spring rally will definitely pass, and I'll tell you that those who experience a bull market are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market would last for about two months, with the highest point almost corresponding to the largest trading volume. During the decline, the volume would gradually decrease, and the decline would be rapid, reaching a low point within a month. Over the past two years, after the spring rally ended, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the ChiNext Index saw a maximum drop of 20%.</p><p>The market has fallen less than in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that cannot see the future, but it can illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will the price continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The US 10-year Treasury Bond yield continued to rise, indicating a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising in tandem. There is no longer any possibility of marginal easing in monetary policy; the only question left is when to shift.</p><p>Therefore, warnings immediately emerged: many people have not experienced the complete cycle and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stock cycles.</p><p>All I want to say is: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Do you know why we only invest in biopharmaceuticals? I just don't want to care about the macro and cyclical aspects.</p><p>In the midst of a systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>However, as long as the main downturn is weathered and the market enters a period of fluctuation, even if it is a gradual decline, the biopharmaceutical industry is not afraid. The advantages of certain growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own trajectory, resulting in a structural market trend.</p><p>The deleveraging in 2018, even if the memories are not good, may still be reminiscent. The market began a year-long decline in February, but CSI Healthcare and CSI Pharmaceutical hit new highs on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and the first centralized procurement, they could have maintained positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Today, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically weather bull and bear markets, and we need to have firm confidence in adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Regarding timing</b></p><p>An important phenomenon in the correction following the end of this spring rally is that trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only trading volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have been implemented yet, and it is also possible that residents' assets can be hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that newly launched funds still had 565.5 billion yuan to build positions, and 72 more equity funds were about to be raised, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Buffett's words are full of wisdom and never outdated; macroeconomic forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>The macroeconomic aspects are unclear, so I won't predict whether the bull and bear markets will shift or how liquidity will tighten in the future. I won't exaggerate the timing.</p><p>Risk appetite also needs to be maintained. Are you afraid when it falls, but wonder why you were afraid in the first place when it rises?</p><p>Have you experienced multiple rounds of ups and downs, or are you still unable to overcome this human nature?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too detached from worldly affairs. The pattern of autumn and winter pullbacks, spring rallies, and subsequent sell-offs is very obvious and can be exploited. However, investing based on predictions of bull and bear market shifts and a full-year decline is too timely.</p><p>Systemic risks will eventually pass. As long as the company itself does not collapse and its growth logic remains intact, it will eventually recover.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. Young fund investors' money cannot be concentrated in traditional industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream investment should still be in growth stocks with decent fundamentals.</p><p>The current problem is that valuations are indeed too overdrawn. Once they fall to a certain level, they become valuable. Leading high-quality assets are digesting their valuations and finding a balanced center. We can observe two anchors: one is Hengrui Medicine, which, if the existing valuation system does not collapse, will be the anchor of the entire biopharmaceutical sector; the other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling, as the trading volume was not large enough during the entire pullback/retracement.</p><p>The Shanghai Composite Index is still a long way from its target level, while the ChiNext Index is almost there. We should remain cautious and not be overly pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. Once systemic risks are released, investors should return to their fundamentals and growth potential.</p><p>liquidity tightening has no impact on biopharmaceutical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotions and timing are not the most important things; stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous quote from Sun Tzu's \"The Art of War\" is: \"Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.\" I didn't understand why such a bland expression was regarded as the golden rule. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is understanding, and it starts with understanding yourself. Experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement should have touched your hearts, and you can consider reflecting on it from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Do your stock holdings match your risk appetite? If you have a poor risk tolerance, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to overvalued, unprofitable, and highly volatile stocks, and to avoid heavily investing in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to handle the relationship between short-term and long-term? If you are very concerned about short-term returns, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to stocks that have great long-term potential but are a mess in the short term.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Organize stocks that are beyond your understanding. High valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitability are difficult to understand. You can choose stocks that you can understand. This will make your stock holding mindset more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses. Give yourself a chance to survive and give good stocks a chance to prove themselves. Tongce Medical, Aier Eye Hospital, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guardian have experienced huge declines. How can they remain completely unnoticed? No need for inner strength; index-based diversified allocation of holdings provides a ballast and a sense of layering. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Kangle Guardian have experienced multiple sharp declines, but they will rise even higher afterward because their allocations are tolerant of short-term mistakes. Don't give yourself a chance to expose your weaknesses, and don't push good stocks to the brink of collapse.</p><p>The emotional standard for measuring whether a portfolio position is reasonable is to feel comfortable and free from pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment matures through ups and downs, and nothing is smooth sailing. Measuring investment on an annual basis is much more relaxed.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic behind CXO's high growth is very strong. High valuations are not entirely due to group buying; once the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>Going away is like pulling silk, and the medical services sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, seeking a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>Tongce Medical's fundamentals and growth potential remain unchanged; the only problem is its high valuation, the controversy surrounding short-term fund alliances, and the loosening of its holdings.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the company continued its good operating trend in the fourth quarter and January of this year, opened on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, achieved good year-on-year growth, and its fundamentals were stable.</p><p>The two future growth curves are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached break-even within six months, demonstrating the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as bad as expected, and Wuhan has achieved very good results. In October 2020, the company's monthly revenue was around 5.5 million yuan, reaching the break-even point. Xi'an Cunji is a hope for expansion outside the province. It is better developed than Wuhan, and its location and talent pool are excellent. The trial operation began on October 9th, with an average monthly revenue of 3 million.</p><p>In the dental implant business, Zhejiang Province has approximately 300,000 dental implants per year, compared to South Korea's 3 million dental implants per year. Zhejiang Province has a huge future market potential for dental implants.</p><p>In the orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce's development of its own digital oral system is more conducive to promoting orthodontic services.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 was 550 million yuan, and it is expected to maintain a 30% growth rate over the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 70, which means that the performance has been overdrawn for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overruns and whether it can maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good sector, it is exclusively profitable, while others suffer losses and have almost no sales expenses, so it can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor amidst volatility; first, cautiously observe the results.</p><p>Time heals all; this isn't motivational quotes.</p><p>Dentistry is a nationwide consumer market, with leading companies having a market capitalization of less than 100 billion yuan. Will this remain the case forever?</p><p>Volatility is normal in the market; sometimes extreme situations can occur, which is inevitable from the moment you enter the market. Even after experiencing multiple rounds of ups and downs, we always become more optimistic when we are optimistic and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right from wrong, but acting on it is a different matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like a person who doesn't get sick, who gets sick once and then gets sick like a mountain. The month after the spring rally ended and the month at the end of the year were both severely affected.</p><p>They expressed a very pessimistic view during the peak of the spring market rally. Now, I also want to say, everything will pass.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ\"> 阿基米德Biotech</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150364023","content_text":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世界还是老样子，拥抱核心资产、长持优质公司的局面不会改变的。\n关于周期\n对春节后大跌不过分演绎，暂时看作重复春季行情结束后的标准流程，每年都会发生的事情。\n核心资产跌幅比往年更大，是因为节前上涨过多，所谓残暴的欢愉，必将有残暴的结局。\n春季行情一定会来，即使凄风冷雨的2018年，上证50也出现了19连涨。春季行情也一定会走，告诉你牛市来了的人是最坏的。\n以往春季行情持续2个月左右，最高点几乎与最大成交量对应，在下跌过程中逐步缩量，而且下跌快速，在一个月内见到阶段低点。过去两年，春季行情结束后，上证指数跌幅超过10%，创业板最大跌幅为20%。\n现在大盘跌幅还不及往年。\n历史是一面镜子，不能看见未来，但可以照清我们所在的位置。\n在标准流程走完之后，是否会持续下跌？美国10年期国债收益率持续走高，代表实际利率回升，通胀升温，中国10年期国债收益率，也在同步走高。货币政策已无边际放松的可能，剩下的只是何时转向的问题。\n所以，立即有警告的声音出现：很多人没有经历过完整的周期轮回，看不见商品周期与科技股周期轮回。\n我只想说：去你的周期！\n知道为什么只投资生物医药吗？就是不想关心宏观和周期。\n系统性危机之下，无一幸免。\n但只要渡过主跌浪，进入震荡期，哪怕是阴跌，生物医药都不怕，头部公司确定性增长的优势将体现，回到自己的运行轨道上来，出现结构性行情。\n2018年去杠杆，记忆再不好可能依旧心有戚戚焉，大盘从2月开始为期一年的阴跌，但中证医疗、中证医药却在5月29日创出新高，如果不是贸易问题和第一次集采，全年可维持正收益。\n如今，贸易问题和集采不再是问题。\n生物医药基本上可以穿越牛熊，我们在逆境时需要坚定信心。\n\n关于择时\n这波春季行情结束之后的调整，有一个重要现象，成交量一直保持平稳。\n只有成交量不会撒谎。\n这到底意味着什么呢？\n流动性收紧可能还没落地，也有可能居民资产通过基金入市有所对冲。\n此前新发基金预估仍有5655亿元资金准备建仓，接下来还有72只权益类基金即将募集，规模预估为3271亿元。\n老巴的话充满了智慧，没有过时，宏观预测对股票投资无意义。\n宏观层面的东西扯不清楚，后面牛熊是否转换、流动性如何收紧，就不预测，不过分择时了。\n需要保持平稳的还有风险偏好，是不是跌的时候怕，涨的时候又觉得当初为什么要怕？\n是不是经历过多轮冷暖交替，还是无法克服这种人性？\n长线投资者无视任何波动，太不食人间烟火，秋冬回调、春季行情、随后的下杀，规律非常明显，是可以利用的。但基于牛熊转换、全年下跌的预测来投资，又过于择时了。\n系统性风险始终会过去的，只要公司本身没有暴雷，成长逻辑还在，最后都会修复的。\n居民资产入市是不可逆的，年轻基民的钱不可能集中于钢铁、有色、煤炭、银行这些传统行业，主流还是配置基本面尚可的成长股。\n现在的问题是估值确实透支得太厉害，跌到一定程度就有价值了，头部优质资产正在消化估值，寻找一个平衡的中枢。我们可以观察两个锚，一个是恒瑞医药，如果现有估值体系不崩溃，就是整个生物医药板块的定海神针，另一个是通策医疗什么时候止跌，整个回撤过程中，量能放得不够大。\n上证离目标位还有较大距离，创业板快到了，保持足够谨慎，也不用过于悲观。\n优质股票长期而言是由内生增长驱动，当系统性风险释放后，投资者的关切应回到基本面和成长性上。\n流动性收紧对生物医药业绩无影响，在存量经济时代，可持续的高增长有稀缺性，可享受溢价。\n情绪、择时不是最重要的事情，选股、配置才是。\n\n关于认知\n《孙子兵法》中最出名的一句话：知己知彼,百战不殆。以前不明白为什么很平淡的表述，被奉为圭臬。现在懂了，凡事最重要的是认知，而且是从认知自己开始，经历这波回撤，各位内心应有触动，可考虑从以下方面进行反思。\n1、持股是否与自己的风险偏好匹配？如果风险承受能力差，建议不要或谨慎配置高估值、未盈利、高波动股票，不要重仓疫苗股、港股、CXO。\n2、怎么处理短期和长期的关系？如果非常在意短期收益，建议不要或谨慎配置长期空间大但短期一塌糊涂的股票。\n3、不懂不做，对超出认知氛围的股票进行整理，高估值、大市值、未盈利都难以理解，可以选择能理解的品种，这样持股心态更平稳。\n4、不要去挑衅自己的弱点，给自己活下去的机会，给好股票证明自己的机会。通策医疗、爱尔眼科、华韩整形、康乐卫士跌幅巨大，怎样做到毫无感觉？无需内心强大，对持仓进行指数化分散配置，有压舱石有层次感。华韩整形、康乐卫士经历过多次暴跌，但过后又会涨得更高，因为配置对短期错误有包容性。不要给自己弱点暴露的机会，也不要把好股票逼上绝境。\n衡量组合仓位是否合理的感性标准，就是让自己感到舒服，没有压力。\n长线投资经过冷暖更迭才会成熟，凡事没有一帆风顺的，以年为单位来度量投资会淡然许多。\n关于通策\nCXO高增长逻辑很硬，高估值不完全是抱团所致，市场企稳之后又将是反弹最快的板块。\n病去如抽丝，医疗服务板块估计会持续震荡，寻找估值中枢，等待市场重新达成共识。\n基本面的崩溃是无底深渊。\n通策医疗的基本面和成长性没变，唯一问题是高估值，短期基金抱团受到争议，筹码松动。\n据通策医疗交流会透露，四季度和今年1月份延续良好的经营趋势，年初四就开业，同比增长良好，基本盘是稳定的。\n未来两条增长曲线是正常的。蒲公英计划推进顺利，部分诊所半年达到盈亏平衡，显示商业模式的可复制性。省外存济医院没有预期那么不堪，武汉取得很好效果。2020年10月单月550万左右收入，达到盈亏平衡线。西安存济是省外拓展的希望，比武汉发展更好，选址体量和人才都很好。10月9号开始试营业，平均月收入300万。\n种植业务，浙江全省大约30万颗，对标韩国一年300万颗，浙江省未来种植牙市场空间很大。\n正畸业务，年轻人正畸需求很旺盛，通策开发自己的数字化口腔系统，更有利于推广正畸业务。\n2020年估计利润5.5亿，未来两年维持30%增速，2023年利润12亿，PE70，也就是说业绩透支两三年。\n现在的问题是市场能不能接受估值透支，能不能维持30%增速。\n作为好赛道唯一龙头，独家盈利，别家亏损，销售费用几乎没有，是可以享受高溢价的。\n市场会在震荡中寻找到一个合适的锚，先谨慎观察结果。\n时间会治愈一切，这不是鸡汤。\n牙科属于全民级消费市场，龙头市值不到1000亿，会永远这样吗？\n波动是市场的常态，有时会遇到极端情况，这是进入市场的那一刻已经注定的。，即使经历过多轮涨跌，我们也总是会在乐观时更加乐观，悲观时更加悲观，明知对错，但做起来是另外一回事。\n生物医药大部时间比较平稳，就像不生病的人，偶然生一次病就病来如山倒。春季行情结束后一个月，年末一个月，挨打都比较惨。\n在春季行情最亢奋的时候，表达了非常悲观的看法。现在，我也要说，一切都会过去的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296135,"gmtCreate":1615108128227,"gmtModify":1704778713992,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o(∩_∩)o","listText":"o(∩_∩)o","text":"o(∩_∩)o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296135","repostId":"367210472","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":367210472,"gmtCreate":1614953502796,"gmtModify":1704777393275,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"39105730803552","authorIdStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼","htmlText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","listText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","text":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/defba801566b7ef284c60411abf03e21","width":"1150","height":"832"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a2ea2dd4ddc860b76248eabaa836713","width":"576","height":"425"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04912baf968ccaf9e0cf0433f58dcd7","width":"622","height":"350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367210472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296918,"gmtCreate":1615108094634,"gmtModify":1704778712379,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296918","repostId":"362539769","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362539769,"gmtCreate":1614647792251,"gmtModify":1704773471458,"author":{"id":"3473897258980608","authorId":"3473897258980608","name":"生财小王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda8b36c8158f92ecbc8381b5c65c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473897258980608","authorIdStr":"3473897258980608"},"themes":[],"title":"搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白","htmlText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","listText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","text":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8a4fd09f0b66373422754edf89a2b","width":"640","height":"234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69b5659348a6e6abd7d72a1b92655e7","width":"640","height":"1137"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a683acaf97eb94dcc597f38ecb17f6","width":"640","height":"342"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362539769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360505812,"gmtCreate":1613952505136,"gmtModify":1704886046375,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360505812","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360662299,"gmtCreate":1613907867911,"gmtModify":1704885842202,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360662299","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360995789,"gmtCreate":1613806050641,"gmtModify":1704885243792,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360995789","repostId":"2112897171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2112897171","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1613787793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112897171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 10:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"In-depth reflection: What exactly is the value logic of Bitcoin?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112897171","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。","content":"<p>Since Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin has broken through record highs for several consecutive years As of 7:00 a.m. Beijing time on February 18, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar had risen by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of $52,621.84 during the session.</p><p>I am no longer alarmed by this price.</p><p>However, many friends around me still keep asking why Bitcoin has risen so much and what its value is. I pondered this question for a long time in 2019 when my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and mainland China to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management.</p><p>Back then, while writing the book, I pondered deeply:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-examined my monetary banking textbooks from university and graduate school, had several in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also had a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had several in-depth conversations with experts who were on the front lines of blockchain and virtual asset research. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that conformed to traditional valuation methods.</p><p>Now, the book is finally complete. It is titled \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I believe that this book is probably the most in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market to date.</p><p>Of course, it should be pointed out that understanding the value logic of Bitcoin and being willing to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best example is my own: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a coin, and by the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had steadily reached $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I never expected Bitcoin to rise to over $50,000 now, otherwise I might have retired long ago.</p><p>Given that many people shared my early confusion about where the value of Bitcoin lay, I felt it necessary to write something. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the aforementioned book. Out of respect for the original author and copyright relationships, I cannot elaborate here, but I can briefly discuss in this article what the logic of value development in Bitcoin since 2020 is.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin Payment Value is Further Explored</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operational logic of Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, we all agreed that digital currency has a disruptive replacement effect on many areas of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function as a scale of value may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, we must mention several things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 was the launch of a globally renowned online payment system in early October 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold, and sell a variety of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal has also proposed allowing the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin for shopping.<b>This directly grants Bitcoin the same payment functionality as regular fiat currencies, marking a significant milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial applications for Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach has essentially opened a door for Bitcoin to traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting PayPal payments in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin, in 2021. PayPal plans to gradually roll out the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin will emerge as a payment tool from the martial arts world to the halls of fame. According to PayPal's plan, users will still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts for fiat currency before making purchases, but PayPal has provided a platform conversion function that will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects this to bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market capitalization of about $300 billion at the time. The doubling of the newly added market capitalization means that Bitcoin' future prices may also need to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active holdings by institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement merely outlined a blueprint for fundamental changes in Bitcoin, then the participation of large US funds directly boosted liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these are gray-scale trust funds.</b>Greyscale is the world's largest Digital Currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Greyscale was launched in 2013 by the Digital Currency Group with the goal of becoming \"a trusted authority in Digital Currency investment\".</p><p>Public information shows that the company has been publicly collecting Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest crypto digital asset trust product.</p><p>GBTC operates similarly to an ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like an ETF (i.e., investors can request to exchange each share of the ETF for the corresponding underlying asset). There is also a 12-month lock-up period for secondary market sales. Moreover, GBTC's primary market subscription is only open to qualified investors (personal net worth must be more than $1 million or annual income must exceed $200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold is at least $50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, total GBTC holdings had increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than six months, indicating that a large amount of institutional funds began to flow into Bitcoin in the second half of 2020. Entering 2021, the pace of GBTC purchases continued to accelerate. From early January to mid-February, as of the time of writing, GBTC's holdings of Bitcoin increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design issues, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats and never vomits, continuously buying Bitcoin and can only buy and hold silently. This move has already brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>Besides Grayscale, other institutions are constantly entering this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in serving institutional investors. The organization's founder, CEO, and chairman, Michael Novogratz, is a traditional...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>An elite figure, he previously served as a partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and prior to FIG...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>He was a partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for three years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry into the market is interpreted as a signal that institutions are accelerating their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced a $50 million investment in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which manages more than $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately $114 million, as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effects of PayPal and Grayscale continue to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is on February 8, 2021.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla announced that it expects to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment, and under the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla's founder Elon Musk even changed his profile picture to Bitcoin. Following this news, Bitcoin was quickly pushed above the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a new historical high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>A clear regulatory stance reduces uncertainty.</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which has greatly reduced investor uncertainty about the future development of Bitcoin.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world introduced corresponding measures or policies for Bitcoin, and began to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset trading, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory measures instead of simply rejecting or ignoring their development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is a separate topic. I will only provide a general background introduction here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the virtual asset sector, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset trading;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either virtual assets are included in licensing regulation.</b></p><p>Judging from the current developments in the United States, Singapore, and Hong Kong, governments in various countries should be more inclined to include virtual assets in the scope of legal licensing regulation rather than simply rejecting them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the DBS Digital Exchange, which includes the tokenization, trading, and custody of Digital assets. Through this platform, DBS utilizes blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market trading of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, including security token issuance, digital currency trading, and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple). All of the above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared to Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China explicitly proposed to bring virtual assets under regulation and launched a measure on November 3, 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The consultation is open to the public regarding whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The year before, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) had actually issued a \"Position Paper\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses. However, this practice only applies to platforms providing securities-based virtual asset trading services, and platforms providing non-securities-based virtual asset trading services are not subject to this regulation.</p><p>Therefore, I believe that the public consultation that began in Hong Kong in 2020 reflects a clearer attitude from Hong Kong regulators, namely, to include virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies in legal trading procedures, rather than excluding them.</p><p>In the long run, governments around the world currently appear to have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin. As of February 18, Bitcoin' market capitalization approached $1 trillion, but it has not yet surpassed the gold market (approximately $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the total stock of the U.S. bond market alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theoretical Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional fiat currencies due to the wide volume, and the unique mining mechanism of Bitcoin, no one dares to say whether Bitcoin's market capitalization will exceed that of other types of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used by individual central banks as a substitute for gold, or it will be stifled by countries. We can only take it one step at a time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In-depth reflection: What exactly is the value logic of Bitcoin?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn-depth reflection: What exactly is the value logic of Bitcoin?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-20 10:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin has broken through record highs for several consecutive years As of 7:00 a.m. Beijing time on February 18, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar had risen by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of $52,621.84 during the session.</p><p>I am no longer alarmed by this price.</p><p>However, many friends around me still keep asking why Bitcoin has risen so much and what its value is. I pondered this question for a long time in 2019 when my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and mainland China to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management.</p><p>Back then, while writing the book, I pondered deeply:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-examined my monetary banking textbooks from university and graduate school, had several in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also had a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had several in-depth conversations with experts who were on the front lines of blockchain and virtual asset research. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that conformed to traditional valuation methods.</p><p>Now, the book is finally complete. It is titled \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I believe that this book is probably the most in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market to date.</p><p>Of course, it should be pointed out that understanding the value logic of Bitcoin and being willing to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best example is my own: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a coin, and by the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had steadily reached $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I never expected Bitcoin to rise to over $50,000 now, otherwise I might have retired long ago.</p><p>Given that many people shared my early confusion about where the value of Bitcoin lay, I felt it necessary to write something. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the aforementioned book. Out of respect for the original author and copyright relationships, I cannot elaborate here, but I can briefly discuss in this article what the logic of value development in Bitcoin since 2020 is.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin Payment Value is Further Explored</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operational logic of Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, we all agreed that digital currency has a disruptive replacement effect on many areas of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function as a scale of value may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, we must mention several things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 was the launch of a globally renowned online payment system in early October 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold, and sell a variety of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal has also proposed allowing the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin for shopping.<b>This directly grants Bitcoin the same payment functionality as regular fiat currencies, marking a significant milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial applications for Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach has essentially opened a door for Bitcoin to traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting PayPal payments in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin, in 2021. PayPal plans to gradually roll out the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin will emerge as a payment tool from the martial arts world to the halls of fame. According to PayPal's plan, users will still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts for fiat currency before making purchases, but PayPal has provided a platform conversion function that will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects this to bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market capitalization of about $300 billion at the time. The doubling of the newly added market capitalization means that Bitcoin' future prices may also need to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active holdings by institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement merely outlined a blueprint for fundamental changes in Bitcoin, then the participation of large US funds directly boosted liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these are gray-scale trust funds.</b>Greyscale is the world's largest Digital Currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Greyscale was launched in 2013 by the Digital Currency Group with the goal of becoming \"a trusted authority in Digital Currency investment\".</p><p>Public information shows that the company has been publicly collecting Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest crypto digital asset trust product.</p><p>GBTC operates similarly to an ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like an ETF (i.e., investors can request to exchange each share of the ETF for the corresponding underlying asset). There is also a 12-month lock-up period for secondary market sales. Moreover, GBTC's primary market subscription is only open to qualified investors (personal net worth must be more than $1 million or annual income must exceed $200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold is at least $50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, total GBTC holdings had increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than six months, indicating that a large amount of institutional funds began to flow into Bitcoin in the second half of 2020. Entering 2021, the pace of GBTC purchases continued to accelerate. From early January to mid-February, as of the time of writing, GBTC's holdings of Bitcoin increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design issues, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats and never vomits, continuously buying Bitcoin and can only buy and hold silently. This move has already brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>Besides Grayscale, other institutions are constantly entering this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in serving institutional investors. The organization's founder, CEO, and chairman, Michael Novogratz, is a traditional...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>An elite figure, he previously served as a partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and prior to FIG...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>He was a partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for three years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry into the market is interpreted as a signal that institutions are accelerating their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced a $50 million investment in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which manages more than $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately $114 million, as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effects of PayPal and Grayscale continue to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is on February 8, 2021.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla announced that it expects to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment, and under the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla's founder Elon Musk even changed his profile picture to Bitcoin. Following this news, Bitcoin was quickly pushed above the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a new historical high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>A clear regulatory stance reduces uncertainty.</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which has greatly reduced investor uncertainty about the future development of Bitcoin.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world introduced corresponding measures or policies for Bitcoin, and began to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset trading, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory measures instead of simply rejecting or ignoring their development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is a separate topic. I will only provide a general background introduction here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the virtual asset sector, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset trading;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either virtual assets are included in licensing regulation.</b></p><p>Judging from the current developments in the United States, Singapore, and Hong Kong, governments in various countries should be more inclined to include virtual assets in the scope of legal licensing regulation rather than simply rejecting them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the DBS Digital Exchange, which includes the tokenization, trading, and custody of Digital assets. Through this platform, DBS utilizes blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market trading of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, including security token issuance, digital currency trading, and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple). All of the above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared to Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China explicitly proposed to bring virtual assets under regulation and launched a measure on November 3, 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The consultation is open to the public regarding whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The year before, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) had actually issued a \"Position Paper\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses. However, this practice only applies to platforms providing securities-based virtual asset trading services, and platforms providing non-securities-based virtual asset trading services are not subject to this regulation.</p><p>Therefore, I believe that the public consultation that began in Hong Kong in 2020 reflects a clearer attitude from Hong Kong regulators, namely, to include virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies in legal trading procedures, rather than excluding them.</p><p>In the long run, governments around the world currently appear to have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin. As of February 18, Bitcoin' market capitalization approached $1 trillion, but it has not yet surpassed the gold market (approximately $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the total stock of the U.S. bond market alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theoretical Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional fiat currencies due to the wide volume, and the unique mining mechanism of Bitcoin, no one dares to say whether Bitcoin's market capitalization will exceed that of other types of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used by individual central banks as a substitute for gold, or it will be stifled by countries. We can only take it one step at a time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a445b50c964238b080d2c25e6bf133","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112897171","content_text":"中国农历除夕之后，比特币单价连续突破历史新高。截至北京时间2月18日7时，比特币对美元的价格在过去24小时内上涨近6%，盘中触及52621.84美元，再创历史新高。\n对于这个价格，笔者心里已经波澜不惊。\n但是身边仍然有很多朋友不断地在问，为什么比特币能涨这么多，它的价值到底在哪里？这个问题，在我于2019年和朋友受香港和内地两地的区块链及虚拟资产研究机构的邀请，撰写一本关于加密货币与虚拟资产管理的书时，也曾经思考很久。\n当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”\n为此，我重新翻阅了大学和研究生时代的货币银行学课本，跟自己的金融学博导进行了多次深入的对话（他对于加密货币研究也有浓厚的兴趣），并且和正在第一线从事区块链和虚拟资产研究的专家进行了多次深入的对话，我终为比特币这种加密货币找到了符合传统价值认定方式的资产估值方式。\n现在，这本书终于完成了，书名是《重新定义金融：加密货币与数字资产》（西南财经大学出版社），我自认为，这本书可能也是迄今为止市面上关于虚拟资产管理的非常深入、全面的书。\n当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。最好的就是自己的例子：就在我刚开始写书的时候，比特币是约7200美元一枚，到2020年10月全书收官发行时，比特币已经稳稳地站上了12000美元。即便这样，说实话，我也没想到比特币会涨至现在的超过5万美元，不然可能早已金盆洗手了。\n鉴于很多人都有我早期的困惑，即比特币的价值在哪里，我觉得有必要写一点东西。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。\n\n01\n比特币支付价值被进一步挖掘\n在写书过程中，我和著作者一起研究了比特币的运作逻辑和价值演变的逻辑，最后大家认为，数字货币对传统金融的很多领域，都具有颠覆性的替代作用。\n举例来说，比特币在支付方式和价值储藏方面的功能正越来越被现阶段的机构投资者认可，而随着它被机构投资人和传统金融机构进一步接受，其价值尺度的功能也可能会进一步得到支持。\n说到机构的支持，这里就不得不提及2020年发生的几件事。\n首先是传统金融机构的配合。2020年对于比特币来说最具意义的一个变化是，在2020年10月初，全球知名在线支付系统PayPal发布公告称，它将允许用户在其平台上购买、持有和出售包括比特币在内的多种加密货币。除了交易比特币，PayPal还提出，将允许使用比特币等加密货币进行购物——这直接赋予比特币与普通法币一样的支付功能，这是加密货币的一个重要里程碑事件。\n尽管可以实际应用比特币的商业应用场景非常有限，但PayPal的做法相当于已经为比特币打开了一道迈向传统商业交易的大门。根据PayPal的公告，它将允许2600万家PayPal合作商店在2021年开始接受PayPal以加密货币付款，这些加密货币包括比特币、以太坊、比特币现金和莱特币。PayPal计划将该应用逐步向全球其他市场推广。\n如果PayPal计划成功推行，则比特币将作为支付工具，从江湖走向殿堂。根据PayPal的计划，用户仍然需要将账户中的加密货币先兑换成法币才能购物，但PayPal提供了转换平台功能，将令比特币的流通更为顺畅。市场预期，这会给比特币带来数千亿美元的新增需求，而当时比特币只有约3000亿美元左右的市值。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。\n\n02\n机构投资者加速配置\n其次是机构投资者的积极持仓，使得比特币和相关的数字货币已经正式成为一个独立的资产类别。如果说PayPal的一纸公告只是给比特币勾画了一个基本面变化的版图，那么美国大型基金的参与，则直接驱升了比特币市场里的流动性。\n其中最有名的是灰度信托基金。灰度是世界上最大的数字货币资产管理公司，公司英文名称是Greyscale Investments（简称Greyscale），Grayscale由Digital Currency Group于2013年发起，目标是成为“数字货币投资方面值得信赖的权威机构”。\n公开资料显示，该公司自2013年开始公开在市场上收集比特币。其中，2013年9月25日成立的灰度比特币信托（GBTC）是灰度旗下规模最大的加密数字资产信托产品。\nGBTC的运作类似于ETF（交易所交易基金），但它不像ETF那样有赎回机制（即投资者可以要求用每一份额的ETF兑换对应的底层资产），在二级市场的出手也有12个月的锁定期，而且GBTC的一级市场申购只面向合格投资者（个人净资产需要在100万美元以上或是连续两年年收入超过20万美元），申购门槛投资额至少在5万美元以上。\n截至2020年12月，GBTC的总持仓量不到半年的时间增长了58.3%至近57万枚比特币，这表明在2020年下半年，大量的机构资金开始涌入比特币。进入2021年，GBTC的买货步伐还在加速，从1月初至2月中旬本文截稿，GBTC持有的比特币又增加了近8万枚至65万枚比特币。\n由于产品设计的问题，灰度像个只吃不吐的貔貅，持续不断地买入比特币，并且只能默默地买入并持有，此举已经给机构投资者带来了一定的示范效应。\n除了灰度，还有其他的机构不断涌入这个市场，包括专门为机构投资者服务的Galax Digital。该机构的创始人、CEO兼董事长Michael Novogratz是传统金融界的精英人物，曾任Fortress Investment Group LLC的合伙人兼总裁，在FIG之前曾任高盛合伙人，并在纽约联邦储备银行投资顾问委员会任职3年。Galax Digital专门为机构投资者买入加密货币，因此它的积极入场，也被解读为是机构加速入市的信号。\n此外，2020年10月8日，移动支付巨头Square也宣布投资5000万美元的比特币。2020年10月13日，管理规模超过100亿美元的Stone Ridge Holdings宣布，该公司购入1万多枚比特币，价值约1.14亿美元，以作为其资产储备策略的一部分。\n随着PayPal和灰度的市场效应不断扩大，越来越多的机构投资者增加了对加密货币的需求。最新的案例是2021年2月8日，特斯拉宣布，预计将会开始接受比特币作为支付形式，根据新政策，特斯拉总共投资了15亿美元比特币。特斯拉创办人马斯克甚至把头像换成了比特币。此消息一出，比特币短线迅速被拉升突破4万美元关口，日内涨幅高达11%，报43172美元，并创下历史新高。\n\n03\n监管态度明确令不确定性降低\n第三个驱动力是2020年全球监管态度的明确，这使得投资者对于比特币的后期发展的不确定性大大降低。基本上，2020年全球范围内的监管机构对比特币都出台了相应的措施或政策，对比特币和虚拟资产交易开始持更正面的态度，例如决定采用规范化的监管手段，而非一味拒绝或忽略其发展。\n对于比特币和其他加密货币的监管，是另一个独立的话题。笔者这里仅介绍一下大概背景。\n联合国反洗钱金融行动特别工作组（FATF）在2015年便提出针对虚拟资产进行规管。2019年2月，FATF要求成员国把反洗钱和反恐融资（AML/CTF）延伸至虚拟资产领域，并提出两个主要选项：\n（1）要么全面取消虚拟资产交易；\n（2）要么把虚拟资产纳入发牌监管。\n从目前美国、新加坡及中国香港的发展来看，各国政府应该是更倾向于把虚拟资产纳入合法发牌监管范畴，而不是一味拒绝。\n在新加坡，2020年12月10日，星展银行宣布推出“星展数字交易平台”（DBS Digital Exchange），内容包含数字资产的货币化（tokenisation）、交易和保管。通过这个平台，DBS利用区块链技术，提供包括加密货币等数字资产的货币化和次级市场交易，包括证券型代币发行、数字货币交易和数字保管服务。\nDBS宣布，将会为4种货币（新加坡币、美元、港币、日圆）和4种最成熟的加密货币（比特币、以太币、比特币现金、瑞波币）提供相互兑换服务。而上述服务均已获得新加坡金融管理局原则性核准。\n相比新加坡，香港的步伐慢了一些，但形势也在积极发展。同样也是在2020年，作为FATF的一员，中国香港特区明确提出，将虚拟资产纳入监管，并且在2020年11月3日推出一项全民咨询，就虚拟资产交易所是否需要持牌，向社会各界公开咨询意见。\n而在此前一年，香港证监会（SFC）其实已在2019年11月就虚拟资产交易活动发表《立场书》，容许虚拟资产交易平台自愿申请牌照，但此做法只适用于证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台，非证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台并不受此制度监管。\n因此，香港2020年开始的公共咨询，笔者认为是香港监管层表现出更明确的态度，即要把加密货币这类虚拟资产纳入合法的交易程序，而不是拒之门外。\n从长远来看，全球政府目前似乎也没有联手打压比特币的计划。截至2月18日，比特币市值逼近1万亿美元，尚未超过黄金市场（约10万亿美元），更是没法和传统的债券及股票市场相比。根据中金的一份报告，仅美国整体债券市场的存量规模已经超过50万亿美元。\n但考虑到比特币的理论数量有限，以及传统法币由于量宽而不断贬值，以及比特币特有的挖矿机制，谁也不敢说未来比特币的市值是否会超过其他各类的资产，届时比特币会被个别央行用于当作黄金的替代品，抑或是被各国联手扼杀，只有走一步看一步了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386552479,"gmtCreate":1613216869691,"gmtModify":1704879469825,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386552479","repostId":"2110020695","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386936900,"gmtCreate":1613124786200,"gmtModify":1704878617075,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386936900","repostId":"1140853678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140853678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613097200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140853678?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-12 10:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the prospectus of \"Nayuki Tea\" as sweet as tea?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140853678","media":"资本侦探","summary":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股","content":"<p>On New Year's Eve 2014, Lenovo announced its acquisition of Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>When the mall submitted its IPO prospectus, the industry was in an uproar. On Lunar New Year's Eve 2021, Nayuki Tea, which had repeatedly declined to comment on IPO rumors, ...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">Hong Kong Stock Exchange</a>The prospectus was released. However, this news of \"striving to become the first tea beverage stock\" did not attract much attention.</p><p>In the recent Year of the Rat, new consumer companies have attracted a lot of attention from the capital market – Pop Mart surpassed HK$100 billion in market capitalization on its first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Its market capitalization surpassed $12.2 billion on its first day of trading; Recent reports also indicate that Genki Forest' latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (source: ChinaVenture).</p><p>We must strike while the iron is hot. This is the peak period for valuations in the consumer sector. How can a capital feast be without \"new tea drinks\" that are at the forefront of the storm?</p><p>To date, Nayuki has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg, after its Series C funding round at the beginning of this year, Nayuki's valuation is close to $2 billion (approximately RMB 13 billion).</p><p>Nayuki's teammates have also demonstrated their ability to attract funds - Heytea has raised more than 500 million yuan in four rounds of financing, and its post-investment valuation has reached 16 billion yuan. Behind it are stars such as IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, and Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital.</p><p>According to other data, in 2020, tea beverage brands completed 18 financing rounds, with a total disclosed amount of RMB 1.743 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing in the food/health product sector that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a glory or a bubble? Nayuki Tea's prospectus provides some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin was only 0.2%, and single-store sales declined rapidly.</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, Nayuki Tea's operating revenue was RMB 1.09 billion, RMB 2.5 billion and RMB 2.11 billion in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8%.</p><p>In 2020, the offline business was significantly affected by the pandemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Nayuki's tea is experiencing rapid revenue growth, its profit performance is significantly inferior.</p><p>Nayuki Tea reported net losses of RMB 56.58 million and RMB 11.735 million under non-IFRS standards in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.484 million in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin was only 0.2%, indicating that the company's profitability was too thin.</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that<b>This is due to the persistently high operating costs at the company's stores. The most significant costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rent and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, Nayuki Tea had 155, 327 and 422 stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Among them, the number of stores in 2019 and 2020 increased by 172 and 95 respectively compared with the previous reporting period.</p><p>Although Nayuki's number of stores is still expanding rapidly, it is clear that its store growth rate is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the number of stores continuing to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily sales per store and average daily order volume per store have both shown a continuous downward trend.</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales per store from January to September 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700 yuan, 27,700 yuan, and 20,100 yuan, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average sales per store declined rapidly.</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in single-store orders—as the number of Nayuki tea stores increases, the store density in core cities gradually increases, and the number of single-store orders continues to decline. Due to the decline in individual store turnover, while the overall cost at the store level remained unchanged, the profit margin at the store level also showed a continuous downward trend. Nayuki's profit margin per store in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continued decline in Nayuki's operating performance at the individual tea store level also poses a certain degree of hidden danger to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As is well known, under the single-store model in the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only increase if the average number of orders per store and the average order value continue to grow, and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing individual store profits can the costs of the middle and back offices be even out and the company achieve overall profitability.</p><p>Nayuki's tea is currently experiencing a rapid decline in individual store operating efficiency, which will greatly limit the company's overall expansion speed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What's new?</p><p>Previously, Nayuki released the \"2020 New Tea Beverage White Paper,\" which mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea beverage market would reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market would reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea beverage market would still be more than twice that of the coffee market. The market size of new-style tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to break through 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how large the market is, it is still just paper data. Luckin Coffee's lesson is still fresh in our minds. Would the outcome be very different if we replaced the word \"coffee\" with \"tea beverage\"?</p><p><b>High product homogenization but insufficient standardization—this is a common problem in the new tea beverage industry.</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, have low barriers to entry, and their formulas are easily imitated, leading to increasingly serious homogenization. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization,\" which is particularly important to the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In the tea sector, suppliers can support themselves by selling high-value tea to high-end business people, and raw material processing and production do not require large-scale industrialized production. The upstream system of China's tea beverage industry has not yet been established, and therefore cannot solve the problems of the downstream industry.</p><p>The production processes other than tea are also difficult to maintain. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea beverage products require human intervention. Even with the advent of equipment such as fructose machines, fruit slicing machines, and milk frothing machines in the new tea beverage market, the production process is still controlled by people. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand trembles when he puts the sugar in it.\"</p><p>So, how will Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>Currently, it appears that there are two main types of \"newness\" in new consumption:</p><p><b>One type is new consumer brands that have emerged along with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary and Florasis.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner at Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry over the years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet became a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls were built, and a large amount of investment was generated by consumer and catering brands;</p><p>2012-2013: The e-commerce platform landscape took shape, and Taobao brands gained favor from capital;</p><p>2016-2017: Social media boomed to an unprecedented level, driving the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom occurs during the initial stage of internet platform companies taking shape. On the one hand, there are fewer investment targets for technology companies, and on the other hand, internet platform companies begin to monetize their traffic. As consumers' attention shifts, many new brands and services are born. Consumer investment is about investing in targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, the products haven't fundamentally changed, but the channels are new, and consumer brands that seize these emerging channels are also new.</p><p><b>Another approach involves updating products, services, and user experiences; new tea drinks clearly fall into this category.</b>。</p><p>In the past, most milk teas were powdered and dissolved, containing neither milk nor tea. Milk tea shops were also relatively small, mostly 3 to 5 square meters. Later, the raw materials were upgraded, and milk tea made from tea powder and tea residue emerged, as well as milk foam tea. Modern tea drinks use healthier and fresher ingredients, and the interior spaces are more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>at the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>An interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Nayuki Tea, revealed that her breakthrough strategy also focused on the latter.</p><p>According to Peng Xin, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created a lot of customers for the product category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new-style tea drinks is not the same group of customers who drank milk tea shops on the street 5 years ago, but there are many white-collar workers and business people. Second, we see that the entire product category can be roughly divided into three dimensions. In fact, the market in the middle and top segments is actually increasing, while the market for products priced at around 5 or 10 yuan at the bottom is shrinking.\" Whether in first- or second-tier markets or lower-tier markets, there is an increasing emphasis on quality and a gradual shift towards high-end consumption.</p><p>In other words,<b>The existing market arises from the process of acquiring new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks and seizing the low-end product market through high-end products.</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes Nayuki Tea's growth strategy into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate its leading position in existing markets and expand its business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize overall operations to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capacity; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative and popular products, expand product range and sales channels to unleash the brand potential of Nayuki tea. It's worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on the \"Nayuki PRO\". Nayuki plans to open approximately 300 and 350 Nayuki tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which approximately 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Nayuki PRO is a store model launched last November, which divides its product operation model into four major modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to a Nayuki representative, unlike previous Nayuki stores that were mostly positioned in high-end business districts, Nayuki PRO will focus on first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>However, such actions seem to go against the general trend—Heytea opened Xixiaocha, Luckin opened self-pickup stores, and even...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Everyone is aggressively promoting \"Fei Kuai,\" which offers in-store pickup. Will the value of \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Nayuki's sales per square meter?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Nayuki's tea: the founder, Peng Xin, whose online name is \"Nayuki\", claims that based on her own experience, she designed the \"Nayuki Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-grip feel by using the size of her own hand as a sample. After she had the idea of making tea, she sought collaborators from various sources and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. They met in March and got engaged in May. Through the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Nayuki no Cha was born.</p><p>Today, when dreams become reality, when businesses require capital, and when the cold data of prospectuses are presented before our eyes, the story becomes increasingly complex.</p>","source":"lsy1585101920501","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the prospectus of \"Nayuki Tea\" as sweet as tea?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the prospectus of \"Nayuki Tea\" as sweet as tea?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资本侦探</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-12 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On New Year's Eve 2014, Lenovo announced its acquisition of Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>When the mall submitted its IPO prospectus, the industry was in an uproar. On Lunar New Year's Eve 2021, Nayuki Tea, which had repeatedly declined to comment on IPO rumors, ...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">Hong Kong Stock Exchange</a>The prospectus was released. However, this news of \"striving to become the first tea beverage stock\" did not attract much attention.</p><p>In the recent Year of the Rat, new consumer companies have attracted a lot of attention from the capital market – Pop Mart surpassed HK$100 billion in market capitalization on its first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Its market capitalization surpassed $12.2 billion on its first day of trading; Recent reports also indicate that Genki Forest' latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (source: ChinaVenture).</p><p>We must strike while the iron is hot. This is the peak period for valuations in the consumer sector. How can a capital feast be without \"new tea drinks\" that are at the forefront of the storm?</p><p>To date, Nayuki has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg, after its Series C funding round at the beginning of this year, Nayuki's valuation is close to $2 billion (approximately RMB 13 billion).</p><p>Nayuki's teammates have also demonstrated their ability to attract funds - Heytea has raised more than 500 million yuan in four rounds of financing, and its post-investment valuation has reached 16 billion yuan. Behind it are stars such as IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, and Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital.</p><p>According to other data, in 2020, tea beverage brands completed 18 financing rounds, with a total disclosed amount of RMB 1.743 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing in the food/health product sector that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a glory or a bubble? Nayuki Tea's prospectus provides some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin was only 0.2%, and single-store sales declined rapidly.</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, Nayuki Tea's operating revenue was RMB 1.09 billion, RMB 2.5 billion and RMB 2.11 billion in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8%.</p><p>In 2020, the offline business was significantly affected by the pandemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Nayuki's tea is experiencing rapid revenue growth, its profit performance is significantly inferior.</p><p>Nayuki Tea reported net losses of RMB 56.58 million and RMB 11.735 million under non-IFRS standards in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.484 million in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin was only 0.2%, indicating that the company's profitability was too thin.</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that<b>This is due to the persistently high operating costs at the company's stores. The most significant costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rent and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, Nayuki Tea had 155, 327 and 422 stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Among them, the number of stores in 2019 and 2020 increased by 172 and 95 respectively compared with the previous reporting period.</p><p>Although Nayuki's number of stores is still expanding rapidly, it is clear that its store growth rate is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the number of stores continuing to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily sales per store and average daily order volume per store have both shown a continuous downward trend.</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales per store from January to September 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700 yuan, 27,700 yuan, and 20,100 yuan, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average sales per store declined rapidly.</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in single-store orders—as the number of Nayuki tea stores increases, the store density in core cities gradually increases, and the number of single-store orders continues to decline. Due to the decline in individual store turnover, while the overall cost at the store level remained unchanged, the profit margin at the store level also showed a continuous downward trend. Nayuki's profit margin per store in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continued decline in Nayuki's operating performance at the individual tea store level also poses a certain degree of hidden danger to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As is well known, under the single-store model in the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only increase if the average number of orders per store and the average order value continue to grow, and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing individual store profits can the costs of the middle and back offices be even out and the company achieve overall profitability.</p><p>Nayuki's tea is currently experiencing a rapid decline in individual store operating efficiency, which will greatly limit the company's overall expansion speed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What's new?</p><p>Previously, Nayuki released the \"2020 New Tea Beverage White Paper,\" which mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea beverage market would reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market would reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea beverage market would still be more than twice that of the coffee market. The market size of new-style tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to break through 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how large the market is, it is still just paper data. Luckin Coffee's lesson is still fresh in our minds. Would the outcome be very different if we replaced the word \"coffee\" with \"tea beverage\"?</p><p><b>High product homogenization but insufficient standardization—this is a common problem in the new tea beverage industry.</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, have low barriers to entry, and their formulas are easily imitated, leading to increasingly serious homogenization. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization,\" which is particularly important to the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In the tea sector, suppliers can support themselves by selling high-value tea to high-end business people, and raw material processing and production do not require large-scale industrialized production. The upstream system of China's tea beverage industry has not yet been established, and therefore cannot solve the problems of the downstream industry.</p><p>The production processes other than tea are also difficult to maintain. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea beverage products require human intervention. Even with the advent of equipment such as fructose machines, fruit slicing machines, and milk frothing machines in the new tea beverage market, the production process is still controlled by people. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand trembles when he puts the sugar in it.\"</p><p>So, how will Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>Currently, it appears that there are two main types of \"newness\" in new consumption:</p><p><b>One type is new consumer brands that have emerged along with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary and Florasis.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner at Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry over the years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet became a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls were built, and a large amount of investment was generated by consumer and catering brands;</p><p>2012-2013: The e-commerce platform landscape took shape, and Taobao brands gained favor from capital;</p><p>2016-2017: Social media boomed to an unprecedented level, driving the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom occurs during the initial stage of internet platform companies taking shape. On the one hand, there are fewer investment targets for technology companies, and on the other hand, internet platform companies begin to monetize their traffic. As consumers' attention shifts, many new brands and services are born. Consumer investment is about investing in targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, the products haven't fundamentally changed, but the channels are new, and consumer brands that seize these emerging channels are also new.</p><p><b>Another approach involves updating products, services, and user experiences; new tea drinks clearly fall into this category.</b>。</p><p>In the past, most milk teas were powdered and dissolved, containing neither milk nor tea. Milk tea shops were also relatively small, mostly 3 to 5 square meters. Later, the raw materials were upgraded, and milk tea made from tea powder and tea residue emerged, as well as milk foam tea. Modern tea drinks use healthier and fresher ingredients, and the interior spaces are more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>at the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>An interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Nayuki Tea, revealed that her breakthrough strategy also focused on the latter.</p><p>According to Peng Xin, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created a lot of customers for the product category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new-style tea drinks is not the same group of customers who drank milk tea shops on the street 5 years ago, but there are many white-collar workers and business people. Second, we see that the entire product category can be roughly divided into three dimensions. In fact, the market in the middle and top segments is actually increasing, while the market for products priced at around 5 or 10 yuan at the bottom is shrinking.\" Whether in first- or second-tier markets or lower-tier markets, there is an increasing emphasis on quality and a gradual shift towards high-end consumption.</p><p>In other words,<b>The existing market arises from the process of acquiring new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks and seizing the low-end product market through high-end products.</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes Nayuki Tea's growth strategy into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate its leading position in existing markets and expand its business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize overall operations to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capacity; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative and popular products, expand product range and sales channels to unleash the brand potential of Nayuki tea. It's worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on the \"Nayuki PRO\". Nayuki plans to open approximately 300 and 350 Nayuki tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which approximately 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Nayuki PRO is a store model launched last November, which divides its product operation model into four major modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to a Nayuki representative, unlike previous Nayuki stores that were mostly positioned in high-end business districts, Nayuki PRO will focus on first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>However, such actions seem to go against the general trend—Heytea opened Xixiaocha, Luckin opened self-pickup stores, and even...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Everyone is aggressively promoting \"Fei Kuai,\" which offers in-store pickup. Will the value of \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Nayuki's sales per square meter?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Nayuki's tea: the founder, Peng Xin, whose online name is \"Nayuki\", claims that based on her own experience, she designed the \"Nayuki Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-grip feel by using the size of her own hand as a sample. After she had the idea of making tea, she sought collaborators from various sources and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. They met in March and got engaged in May. Through the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Nayuki no Cha was born.</p><p>Today, when dreams become reality, when businesses require capital, and when the cold data of prospectuses are presented before our eyes, the story becomes increasingly complex.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg\">资本侦探</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ffbe5a8ebba137bf409ca349490c9d3","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140853678","content_text":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股书。不过这一则“冲击茶饮第一股”的消息并没有让太多人驻足留意。在刚刚过去的鼠年里，新消费公司可谓赚足了资本市场的眼球——泡泡玛特上市首日突破千亿港元市值；完美日记（逸仙电商）上市首日市值突破122亿美元；最近还有消息称元气森林最新估值逼近300亿元（消息源自投中网）。打铁须趁热，这正是消费赛道估值的高峰期，资本盛宴里怎么能缺少风口浪尖的“新茶饮”？截至目前，奈雪的茶已完成多轮融资，据彭博社消息，今年年初的C轮融资后，奈雪的茶估值接近20亿美元(约130亿人民币)。而奈雪的茶的队友们也展现出了吸金的实力——喜茶经历4轮融资，累计获得融资超过5亿元人民币，投后估值也到了160亿元，背后不乏IDG资本、红杉资本、高瓴资本、美团旗下龙珠资本等明星。另据资料显示，2020年全年，茶饮品牌一共有18起融资，披露总金额达17.43亿元人民币，同比增长约700％，占到当年食品/保健品赛道融资总额的36％。新消费、新茶饮的崛起究竟是光芒还是泡沫？奈雪的茶这份招股书给出了一些答案。净利润率仅0.2%，单店销售额快速下降来细拆一下招股书的数据：招股书显示，奈雪的茶在2018年、2019年及2020年前9个月营业收入分别为10.9亿、25亿以及21.1亿元人民币，同比增速分别为130.2%和20.8%。其中2020年受疫情影响，线下业务在疫情期间受到较大影响，前9个月营收同比增长呈现大幅放缓趋势。在收入端呈现高速增长的情况下，奈雪的茶在盈利端的表现则要逊色不少。奈雪的茶2018年、2019年非国际财务报告准则下净亏损分别为5658万和1173.5万元，尽管在2020年公司取得净利润448.4万元，但整体净利润率仅为0.2%，公司盈利水平过于单薄。导致利润水平单薄的主要原因在于，公司门店层面经营成本的居高不下导致。其中最主要的成本包含原材料成本、员工成本、租金及相关门店经营开支以及固定资产折旧成本等。经营数据方面，奈雪的茶截止2018年、2019年、2020年9月30日门店数量分别为155、327、422家，其中2019年及2020年9月30日相比较上一报告期门店分别净增加172家和95家。尽管奈雪的茶目前门店数量仍处于快速扩张中，但明显看出其门店增速呈现下降趋势。在门店数量持续增加的情况下，奈雪的茶单店日销售额以及单店日均订单量均出现持续下降趋势。其2018年、2019年、2020年1月～9月单店日均销售额分别为3.07万、2.77万和2.01万元，呈现持续下降趋势，特别是在2020年，公司平均单店销售额出现快速下降。这在很大程度上是由于单店订单数下降导致——随着奈雪的茶门店数量的增加，门店密度在核心城市逐渐增加，单店订单数被持续拉低。而由于单店营业额的下降，但门店层面整体成本保持不变，也导致门店层面利润率呈现持续下降趋势。奈雪的茶在2020年前9个月单店利润率仅为12.6%，远低于2018年的24.9%和2019年的25.3%。奈雪的茶单店层面经营业绩的持续下降也为公司的持续扩张带来一定程度的隐患。众所周知，在零售行业单店模型下，只有在平均单店订单数及客单价持续增长，单店经营成本保持稳定的情况下，单店的经营利润才能提升。而单店利润的提升，才能最终平摊掉中台及后台的成本实现公司整体盈利。而奈雪的茶在现阶段已经出现单店经营效率的快速下降，这在很大程度上会限制公司整体的扩张速度。新在哪里？此前奈雪发布了《2020新式茶饮白皮书》中提到，2020年底中国茶饮市场总规模将达到4420亿元，中国咖啡市场总规模将达到2155亿元，茶饮市场规模仍将是咖啡市场规模的2倍以上。而新式茶饮市场规模在2020年将超过1000亿元，预计到2021年会突破1100亿。然而市场再大也只是纸面数据，瑞幸的教训言犹在耳，把咖啡二字替换成茶饮，结局会大不相同吗？产品高度同质化却标准化不足——这是新茶饮行业的通病。一方面，产品缺乏有效壁垒、门槛低、且配方易被模仿，同质化现象越来越严重。另一方面，消费行业尤为看重的“标品化”问题难以解决。由于在茶叶方面，对供应商而言，向高端商务人士散卖高客单价的茶叶足以养活自己，原材料加工、生产并不必大面积、大规模的工业化生产。中国茶饮行业的上游的体系一直没有架构起来，因此也解决不了下游的问题。茶叶之外的制作环节也难以稳定。新茶饮产品制作过程中几乎所有操作都要靠人来完成。新茶饮市场即便有了果糖机、水果切片设备、奶盖机等设备，产品的制作过程还是人说了算。“一杯茶有多甜，完全取决于店员放糖的手抖不抖。”那么，奈雪的茶会如何突围呢？目前看来，新消费的“新”主要有两种：一种是伴随着渠道迭代而崛起的新消费品牌，比如完美日记、花西子等。五岳资本合伙人钱坤曾总结过这些年消费行业的三次投资热潮：2007年～2008年：PC互联网成定局，线下购物中心大量兴建，大量消费和餐饮品牌的投资产生；2012年～2013年：电商平台格局形成，淘品牌获得资本的青睐；2016年～2017年：社交媒体空前繁荣，带动新型消费产品和服务的快速增长。每一次消费投资热潮都是在互联网平台公司初具规模的阶段，一方面科技公司投资标的变少，另一方面互联网平台公司开始流量变现，消费者注意力转移的过程中诞生了许多新品牌和新服务，消费投资就是在这个过程中投资那些能够快速增长并形成品牌认知的标的。简言之，产品没有根本性的变化，但渠道新了，抓住新崛起渠道的消费品牌也就新了。另一种则是产品、服务、体验的更新，新茶饮显然属于这一范畴。过去的奶茶大多数粉末冲化的，不含奶也不含茶，奶茶店的面积也比较小，大部分是3平方米～5平方米；之后原料有了升级，出现了以茶末、茶渣为基底制作的奶茶，也有了奶盖茶；而现在的新式茶饮原料更健康新鲜，店内空间也更加精美舒适。在今年年初36氪对奈雪的茶创始人彭心的专访中可以看到其突围思路也是集中在后者。在彭心看来，增长主要来自两个方面：“第一，我们为品类创造了很多客户，比如你会发现新式茶饮的主要的消费客群并不是5年前喝街边奶茶店的那一群客人，多了很多白领、商务人士；第二，我们看到其实目前整个的品类可以分为大概的三个维度，其实中部和头部这两块市场其实都是在增大的，尾部这种5块、10块左右的产品市场是在缩减的。不管是一二线市场还是下沉市场，都是越来越看重品质的，逐渐往高端消费去走。”也就是说，通过“新”茶饮去收获新的消费群体，以及通过高端产品，抢夺低端产品市场的过程中，所产生的存量市场。招股书中将奈雪的茶的增长策略归纳为五点：1. 巩固在现有市场的领导地位及扩大在新市场的业务范围；2. 进一步数字化整体运营以提高效率；3. 加强供应链能力；4. 提高顾客参与度以建立持久的联系；5. 新推出创新性的热门产品、扩展产品种类及销售渠道以释放奈雪的茶的品牌潜力。这里值得一提的是第一点明确落脚在了“奈雪PRO”上。奈雪的茶计划2021年、2022年主要在一线城市及新一线城市分别开设约300间、350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，其中约70%将规划为奈雪PRO茶饮店。奈雪PRO是其去年11月推出的店型，将产品经营模式分为咖啡、茶饮、轻烘焙、零食零售四大模块。据奈雪的茶相关负责人介绍，不同于此前奈雪门店多定位在高端商圈，奈雪PRO将精耕一线城市，进驻商务办公区、高密度社区。但这样的动作似乎和大趋势相悖——喜茶开喜小茶、瑞幸开自提店，连星巴克都在强推到店即取的“啡快”，“第三空间”的价值在未来还大吗？这是否会进一步降低奈雪的坪效？奈雪PRO店咖啡产品线菜单奈雪的茶背后其实有一段浪漫的爱情故事：创始人彭心的网名叫“奈雪”，她声称从自身体验出发，以自己手的握度尺寸打样，设计出符合女性纤细易握手感的“奈雪杯”。当她有了做茶的念头后，多方寻求合作者，终于找到了在深圳餐饮界浸淫多年的赵林。3月相识，5月订婚，在彭心和赵林的共同努力下，奈雪の茶诞生了。如今，当梦想照进现实，当事业需要资本，当招股书冰冷的数据摆在眼前，故事也就越来越复杂了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388018605,"gmtCreate":1613001370207,"gmtModify":1704877201018,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388018605","repostId":"1168524354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380852650,"gmtCreate":1612534968170,"gmtModify":1704872516793,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"250?","listText":"250?","text":"250?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380852650","repostId":"1178591238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178591238","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612528765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178591238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-05 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks trigger a \"short squeeze,\" with Liulishuo surging 250%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178591238","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。中概股$流利说$盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。$极光$盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。截至发稿，国际黄金期货价格报1803.25美元/盎司，涨幅0.67%。","content":"<p>On Friday, February 5, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively in pre-market trading. The U.S. Senate passed a budget blueprint for President Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan by a vote of 51-50, after nearly 15 hours of hard-fought bipartisan revisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market Market Data]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent Theory</a>The stock surged over 250% in pre-market trading and closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any announcements regarding events, financial reports, or other matters. According to NYSE regulations, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>The stock surged 125% in pre-market trading after the company recently announced a partnership with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>It rose more than 24% in pre-market trading. Lychees have risen by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Movement</a>It rose 34% in pre-market trading and over 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The market rallied briefly in pre-market trading, at one point surging over 22%, but has now fallen back to 14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>The stock price fluctuated in pre-market trading and is currently up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% in pre-market trading. According to media reports on Friday citing sources familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has finalized...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Investment banks, led by others, are advancing their listing in Hong Kong, with plans to complete the listing within the year and raise US$5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing date may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% in pre-market trading.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Stocks related to retail investors flocking to the market generally rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electronics</a>Up 1.12%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>It rose 0.41%. Previously, brokerage firm Robinhood had removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% in pre-market trading after turning a profit year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of €1.09 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Oilfield services companies rose 0.94% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% in pre-market trading. Chevron offered to acquire Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>The stock rose 19.36% in pre-market trading after reports that U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle company Hyzon had agreed to a merger and IPO with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>The stock fell 6.88% in pre-market trading after the fourth-quarter loss was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% in pre-market trading. The company's full-year losses were worse than expected, and the company warned in its financial report that changes to Apple's IDFA policy would affect how mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>The stock rose more than 10% in pre-market trading, turning a profit year-on-year in the fourth quarter, with monthly active users increasing by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>The stock rose more than 8% in pre-market trading, reporting a 46% year-on-year increase in fourth-quarter net profit and nearly 400 million monthly active users.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>The stock rose more than 3% in pre-market trading, with full-year net profit far exceeding market expectations and sales of Remdesivir reaching $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices are rising. The crude oil market was encouraged by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, indicating a strong manufacturing sector, and hoped that lawmakers would quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $56.80 per barrel, up 1.01%. Brent crude oil was trading at $59.55 a barrel, up 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaigns, and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, international gold futures were trading at $1,803.25 per ounce, up 0.67%. Silver futures were trading at $26.585, up 1.34%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks trigger a \"short squeeze,\" with Liulishuo surging 250%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Chinese concept stocks trigger a \"short squeeze,\" with Liulishuo surging 250%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-05 20:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, February 5, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively in pre-market trading. The U.S. Senate passed a budget blueprint for President Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan by a vote of 51-50, after nearly 15 hours of hard-fought bipartisan revisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market Market Data]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent Theory</a>The stock surged over 250% in pre-market trading and closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any announcements regarding events, financial reports, or other matters. According to NYSE regulations, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>The stock surged 125% in pre-market trading after the company recently announced a partnership with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>It rose more than 24% in pre-market trading. Lychees have risen by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Movement</a>It rose 34% in pre-market trading and over 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The market rallied briefly in pre-market trading, at one point surging over 22%, but has now fallen back to 14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>The stock price fluctuated in pre-market trading and is currently up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% in pre-market trading. According to media reports on Friday citing sources familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has finalized...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Investment banks, led by others, are advancing their listing in Hong Kong, with plans to complete the listing within the year and raise US$5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing date may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% in pre-market trading.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Stocks related to retail investors flocking to the market generally rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electronics</a>Up 1.12%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>It rose 0.41%. Previously, brokerage firm Robinhood had removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% in pre-market trading after turning a profit year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of €1.09 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Oilfield services companies rose 0.94% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% in pre-market trading. Chevron offered to acquire Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>The stock rose 19.36% in pre-market trading after reports that U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle company Hyzon had agreed to a merger and IPO with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>The stock fell 6.88% in pre-market trading after the fourth-quarter loss was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% in pre-market trading. The company's full-year losses were worse than expected, and the company warned in its financial report that changes to Apple's IDFA policy would affect how mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>The stock rose more than 10% in pre-market trading, turning a profit year-on-year in the fourth quarter, with monthly active users increasing by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>The stock rose more than 8% in pre-market trading, reporting a 46% year-on-year increase in fourth-quarter net profit and nearly 400 million monthly active users.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>The stock rose more than 3% in pre-market trading, with full-year net profit far exceeding market expectations and sales of Remdesivir reaching $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices are rising. The crude oil market was encouraged by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, indicating a strong manufacturing sector, and hoped that lawmakers would quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $56.80 per barrel, up 1.01%. Brent crude oil was trading at $59.55 a barrel, up 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaigns, and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, international gold futures were trading at $1,803.25 per ounce, up 0.67%. Silver futures were trading at $26.585, up 1.34%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178591238","content_text":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。【盘前行情】热门中概股中概股流利说盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。根据纽交所规定，此次暴涨后流利说也无需向投资者解释说明。极光盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。荔枝盘前涨超24%。荔枝本周涨幅已达339%；猎豹移动盘前涨34%，本周涨超55%；途牛盘前短线拉升，一度涨超22%，现回落至14%；36氪盘前异动，现涨22.2%。腾讯音乐盘前涨3.8%。据媒体周五援引知情人士报道，腾讯音乐已经敲定摩根大通、摩根士丹利为首的投行推进赴港上市事宜，计划在年内完成上市，募集目标为50亿美元。后续可能会有更多的银行加入承销团队，上市时间也有可能发生变化。阿里巴巴盘前跌0.25%，拼多多盘前涨0.22%，京东盘前涨0.87%。重要美股散户抱团概念股盘前普涨，游戏驿站涨2.8%，AMC院线涨2.68%，高斯电子涨1.12%，黑莓涨0.41%。此前券商商Robinhood已移除了对股票及期权头寸的临时限制。赛诺菲盘前涨2.5%，第四季度同比扭亏为盈，实现净利润10.9亿欧元。雪佛龙盘前涨0.94%，油田服务公司Noble Midstream盘前涨超6%。雪佛龙提出以每股12.47美元的价格收购Noble Midstream。特殊目的收购公司Decarbonization 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補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","listText":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","text":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5940d6fc4343daacb6f099edfb02c865","width":"549","height":"295"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632ef8bcb915f71f3e9d2e05f1f3cc6c","width":"660","height":"231"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a76884fada9083aa9bc1208b85673a","width":"660","height":"265"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312946244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334811243,"gmtCreate":1610724577082,"gmtModify":1704985939833,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334811243","repostId":"1126562453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126562453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610716609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126562453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-15 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Bond King\" Gunlak Looks Ahead to 2021: A Year of Tremendous Change","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126562453","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货","content":"<p><i>Gunlach, the \"new bond king,\" recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and US Treasury Bond, serving as a hedge against the deflationary outlook; At the other end are half stocks—mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks—and half real assets (real estate or gold) as hedges against inflationary prospects. \"This is a winning formula.”</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking ahead to 2021, the key word given by Jeffrey Gundlach, the \"new bond king,\" is \"tremendous change.\" During this year, many major trends that had prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must prepare for this: the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will increase, and the dollar will weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Two-Line Capital in Los Angeles is a giant in the fixed-income mutual fund and ETF industry, known as the Bond King. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his annual forecast for global markets and the economy in 2021.</p><p>Gunlack's expected report is subtitled \"Aqualung,\" a tribute to Jeff Koons' famous sculpture of the same name created in the 1970s (Gunlack himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba diving is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gunlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy) that help financial markets survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gunlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are currently the most favored asset classes by investors, while value-oriented fixed income products, cash, and UK stocks are the most neglected.</p><p>Despite subsequent news of significant progress in vaccines, global GDP expectations have remained unchanged since the middle of last year. Gunlach points out that the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all the negative performance and return to the GDP growth trend line before the outbreak of the pandemic, and now we are still surviving on all those policies.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term trend line for GDP growth has been around 2.5%, while currently, US economic output is still around $1 trillion offline. Therefore, Gunlach believes that the economy has not yet truly emerged from the recession.</p><p>The technology sector accounts for 6% of U.S. GDP and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500. As shown in the figure below, Gunlach commented that this demonstrates that \"the severity of wealth inequality is obvious.\"</p><p>According to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, Americans travel less than half as frequently as they did before the pandemic, but the situation has improved slightly around Thanksgiving and Christmas. Gunlach said this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that suppressed demand does exist.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to work remotely from home five days a week has surged from 27% before the pandemic to 61% in October, while the proportion of people willing to work from home at least one day a week is as high as 95%. Gunlach predicted that this would force companies to make “difficult decisions” to restructure their work to accommodate changes in employee thinking.</p><p>When the pandemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs occurred in sectors such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. As economic restructuring deepens, more and more high-paying jobs are becoming victims of layoffs, and Gunlach believes that the layoffs spreading up the income ladder are just the beginning.</p><p>Now, consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gunlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policies. Consumers did spend more money, but most of that money went to areas that generated fewer jobs, such as online retail.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies increased significantly, with the United States being particularly notable, where debt surged from the equivalent of 97% of GDP to 127%.</p><p>Gunlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet also grew roughly in tandem. Currently, the Federal Reserve's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from purchasing mortgage-backed bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it has exploded. A double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward trend. However, Gunlach currently remains neutral on the US dollar because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit can truly have a substantial impact on the dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice, in 2016 and in the early stages of this pandemic, and now its decline is an inevitable trend. Gunlach stated that the S&P 500 is currently enjoying the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a major \"game changer.\" For quite some time prior, inflation had remained moderate, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the correlation between these assets will also become closer.</p><p>Currently, based on P/E and earnings expectations, the S&P 500 is 6% higher than the overall non-US market, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gunlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, \"and perhaps the United States' performance relative to other places has reached its peak.\"</p><p>Currently, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of US stocks is 32, while the overall price-to-earnings ratio of other markets around Gunlach points out that, contrary to what many people think, US stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the dot-com bubble era. \"The cyclical adjustment P/E in the United States is higher than in other parts of the world, and this has not always been the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as its representatives, Emerging market stocks have consistently outperformed US stocks since June, reversing the momentum that had been trending since the beginning of 2019. Gunlach advises investors to increase their holdings in Asian markets. The fact is that the performance of Latin American markets has declined slightly during this period, while the strength of emerging markets is mainly due to the contribution of Asian markets, with South Korea being particularly eye-catching. However, Gunlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of vaccines. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) averaged close to 30 in mid-2020, roughly three times the average reading since 2013. Gunlach believes this is precisely the harbinger of \"profound changes\".</p><p>The Nasdaq's performance relative to the S&P 500 has actually reached a level comparable to that of the internet age. Gunlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks had \"overheated their engines\". If this level of enthusiasm exceeds the extreme levels of 1999, \"then we're doomed,\" meaning that US stock prices will decline across the board.</p><p>Other signs of dramatic change include that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is no longer outperforming micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer outperforming the Russell 2000, a small-cap index. Gunlach commented that small-cap stocks have gotten off to a \"roaring start\" this year, and those with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain above-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie companies,\" those whose interest costs have exceeded their profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American companies over the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive pricing strategies, and their presence and increase have a de-inflationary effect, creating long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gunlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, Bank of Japan stocks have fallen by 84%. European bank stocks trailed American banks until the global financial crisis erupted. Since then, Bank of America stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low or even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The fact that the Federal Reserve has never taken the step of negative interest rates is crucial to the performance of U.S. banks.</p><p>Based on the consumer price index, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than two decades, but Gunlach believes that this situation is unlikely to continue. Although the possibilities of deflation (due to debt levels) and inflation (due to money printing) still coexist in the future, Gunlach predicts that the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5% by June 2021.</p><p>Gunlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and US Treasury Bond, serving as a hedge against the deflationary outlook; At the other end are half stocks—mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks—and half real assets (real estate or gold) as hedges against inflationary prospects. \"This is a winning formula.”</p><p>Gunlach stated that he currently maintains a neutral stance on gold and believes that now is not a suitable opportunity to buy. He also took a neutral stance on Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasized that the latter's volatility was too drastic—\"You could lose 20% in an hour.\" The recent surge in Bitcoin has largely relied on narratives endorsed by institutional investors, such as statements from billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stock prices are already quite expensive, but not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the return on equity cycle-adjusted earnings versus the 10-year Treasury Bond return. Stocks are actually still near the bottom of their range, indicating that they are relatively cheap compared to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>Based on the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Many other indicators send similar signals—current bond yields are too low, Gunlach added.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed intervenes to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually steepen. \"Without yield curve control, the yield spread between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will reach 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will drive yields higher is that over the past seven years, foreign investors have generally been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond. Gunlach questioned whether the Treasury could find enough buyers to ensure its desire to issue new bonds without causing yields to skyrocket.</p><p>He added that bank loans currently look relatively \"cheap\" and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Bond King\" Gunlak Looks Ahead to 2021: A Year of Tremendous Change</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Bond King\" Gunlak Looks Ahead to 2021: A Year of Tremendous Change\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-15 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Gunlach, the \"new bond king,\" recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and US Treasury Bond, serving as a hedge against the deflationary outlook; At the other end are half stocks—mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks—and half real assets (real estate or gold) as hedges against inflationary prospects. \"This is a winning formula.”</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking ahead to 2021, the key word given by Jeffrey Gundlach, the \"new bond king,\" is \"tremendous change.\" During this year, many major trends that had prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must prepare for this: the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will increase, and the dollar will weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Two-Line Capital in Los Angeles is a giant in the fixed-income mutual fund and ETF industry, known as the Bond King. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his annual forecast for global markets and the economy in 2021.</p><p>Gunlack's expected report is subtitled \"Aqualung,\" a tribute to Jeff Koons' famous sculpture of the same name created in the 1970s (Gunlack himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba diving is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gunlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy) that help financial markets survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gunlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are currently the most favored asset classes by investors, while value-oriented fixed income products, cash, and UK stocks are the most neglected.</p><p>Despite subsequent news of significant progress in vaccines, global GDP expectations have remained unchanged since the middle of last year. Gunlach points out that the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all the negative performance and return to the GDP growth trend line before the outbreak of the pandemic, and now we are still surviving on all those policies.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term trend line for GDP growth has been around 2.5%, while currently, US economic output is still around $1 trillion offline. Therefore, Gunlach believes that the economy has not yet truly emerged from the recession.</p><p>The technology sector accounts for 6% of U.S. GDP and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500. As shown in the figure below, Gunlach commented that this demonstrates that \"the severity of wealth inequality is obvious.\"</p><p>According to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, Americans travel less than half as frequently as they did before the pandemic, but the situation has improved slightly around Thanksgiving and Christmas. Gunlach said this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that suppressed demand does exist.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to work remotely from home five days a week has surged from 27% before the pandemic to 61% in October, while the proportion of people willing to work from home at least one day a week is as high as 95%. Gunlach predicted that this would force companies to make “difficult decisions” to restructure their work to accommodate changes in employee thinking.</p><p>When the pandemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs occurred in sectors such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. As economic restructuring deepens, more and more high-paying jobs are becoming victims of layoffs, and Gunlach believes that the layoffs spreading up the income ladder are just the beginning.</p><p>Now, consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gunlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policies. Consumers did spend more money, but most of that money went to areas that generated fewer jobs, such as online retail.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies increased significantly, with the United States being particularly notable, where debt surged from the equivalent of 97% of GDP to 127%.</p><p>Gunlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet also grew roughly in tandem. Currently, the Federal Reserve's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from purchasing mortgage-backed bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it has exploded. A double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward trend. However, Gunlach currently remains neutral on the US dollar because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit can truly have a substantial impact on the dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice, in 2016 and in the early stages of this pandemic, and now its decline is an inevitable trend. Gunlach stated that the S&P 500 is currently enjoying the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a major \"game changer.\" For quite some time prior, inflation had remained moderate, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the correlation between these assets will also become closer.</p><p>Currently, based on P/E and earnings expectations, the S&P 500 is 6% higher than the overall non-US market, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gunlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, \"and perhaps the United States' performance relative to other places has reached its peak.\"</p><p>Currently, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of US stocks is 32, while the overall price-to-earnings ratio of other markets around Gunlach points out that, contrary to what many people think, US stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the dot-com bubble era. \"The cyclical adjustment P/E in the United States is higher than in other parts of the world, and this has not always been the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as its representatives, Emerging market stocks have consistently outperformed US stocks since June, reversing the momentum that had been trending since the beginning of 2019. Gunlach advises investors to increase their holdings in Asian markets. The fact is that the performance of Latin American markets has declined slightly during this period, while the strength of emerging markets is mainly due to the contribution of Asian markets, with South Korea being particularly eye-catching. However, Gunlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of vaccines. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) averaged close to 30 in mid-2020, roughly three times the average reading since 2013. Gunlach believes this is precisely the harbinger of \"profound changes\".</p><p>The Nasdaq's performance relative to the S&P 500 has actually reached a level comparable to that of the internet age. Gunlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks had \"overheated their engines\". If this level of enthusiasm exceeds the extreme levels of 1999, \"then we're doomed,\" meaning that US stock prices will decline across the board.</p><p>Other signs of dramatic change include that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is no longer outperforming micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer outperforming the Russell 2000, a small-cap index. Gunlach commented that small-cap stocks have gotten off to a \"roaring start\" this year, and those with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain above-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie companies,\" those whose interest costs have exceeded their profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American companies over the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive pricing strategies, and their presence and increase have a de-inflationary effect, creating long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gunlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, Bank of Japan stocks have fallen by 84%. European bank stocks trailed American banks until the global financial crisis erupted. Since then, Bank of America stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low or even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The fact that the Federal Reserve has never taken the step of negative interest rates is crucial to the performance of U.S. banks.</p><p>Based on the consumer price index, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than two decades, but Gunlach believes that this situation is unlikely to continue. Although the possibilities of deflation (due to debt levels) and inflation (due to money printing) still coexist in the future, Gunlach predicts that the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5% by June 2021.</p><p>Gunlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and US Treasury Bond, serving as a hedge against the deflationary outlook; At the other end are half stocks—mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks—and half real assets (real estate or gold) as hedges against inflationary prospects. \"This is a winning formula.”</p><p>Gunlach stated that he currently maintains a neutral stance on gold and believes that now is not a suitable opportunity to buy. He also took a neutral stance on Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasized that the latter's volatility was too drastic—\"You could lose 20% in an hour.\" The recent surge in Bitcoin has largely relied on narratives endorsed by institutional investors, such as statements from billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stock prices are already quite expensive, but not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the return on equity cycle-adjusted earnings versus the 10-year Treasury Bond return. Stocks are actually still near the bottom of their range, indicating that they are relatively cheap compared to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>Based on the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Many other indicators send similar signals—current bond yields are too low, Gunlach added.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed intervenes to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually steepen. \"Without yield curve control, the yield spread between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will reach 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will drive yields higher is that over the past seven years, foreign investors have generally been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond. Gunlach questioned whether the Treasury could find enough buyers to ensure its desire to issue new bonds without causing yields to skyrocket.</p><p>He added that bank loans currently look relatively \"cheap\" and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ce8ecf1c322228b36ddbb621a98231","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126562453","content_text":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n\n\n展望2021年，“新债王”冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）给出的关键词是“沧桑巨变”。在这一年当中，许多之前盛行多年的大趋势都会宣告反转，而投资者对此必须做好准备——美国股市的表现将不及世界其他地方，通货膨胀将会抬升，波动率将会强化，美元将会趋向疲软。\n这位洛杉矶双线资本创始人、首席执行官是一位固定收益共同基金及ETF行业的巨头，有债王的美誉。本周早些时候，在一次线上研讨会期间，他发布了自己的2021年全球市场及经济年度预期。\n冈拉克预期报告的副标题是“水肺”（Aqualung），以此来致敬昆斯（Jeff Koons）上世纪70年代创作的著名同名雕塑（冈拉克本人是一位现代派艺术爱好者）。水肺是一种人工装置，可以让潜水者在水下呼吸，冈拉克在这里用其比喻各种金融工具（比如货币政策），金融市场正是靠着这些工具在极端环境当中存活下来的。\n以下即冈拉克今年预期的内容概要。\n根据德意志银行的客户调查，美国股票和新兴市场股票是投资者当下最青睐的资产门类，而最受冷落的，则是价值导向型固定收益产品、现金和英国股票。\n虽然后来传出了疫苗取得重大进展的消息，但是从去年年中以来，全球国内生产总值预期就没有改变过。冈拉克指出，其实现在经济依然是在衰退当中。“你必须能够让各种消极表现全部充分反转，回到疫情爆发前的国内生产总值增长趋势线上，而我们现在，其实依然是在依靠着所有那些政策而存活。”\n2016年以来，国内生产总值的长期增长趋势线是2.5%左右，而现在，美国经济产出还处在线下大约1万亿美元的地方。因此，冈拉克认为，经济尚未真正走出衰退。\n科技行业在美国国内生产总值当中占比6%，在就业当中占比2%，但是该板块在标普500指数总市值当中却占比高达38%。如下图所示，冈拉克的点评是，这正说明“财富不均衡的严重程度显而易见”。\n根据美国运输安全管理局的数据，美国人的旅行频率还不及疫情爆发前的一半，但是在感恩节和圣诞节前后，局面已经略有改观。冈拉克说，这一发展可以视为初步的证据，证明确实存在着受到压制的需求。\n调查发现，愿意每周五天都居家远程办公的人所占据比例已经从疫情前的27%猛增到10月间的61%，而愿意每周至少一天在家上班的人，更是高达95%。冈拉克预言说，这将迫使企业做出“艰难的决定”，对工作进行重新设置，以适应员工想法的改变。\n疫情刚刚爆发时，最初的裁员潮是出现在旅行、休闲娱乐和旅馆等领域。伴随经济重组的深入，越来越多高薪职位也开始成为裁员的牺牲品，而冈拉克相信，裁员沿着收入阶梯向上蔓延，现在还只是一个开始。\n现在，商品消费量已经开始增长，但是就业情况却在恶化。冈拉克说，这其实正是刺激政策的“黑暗面”的逐渐显现。消费者确实是花掉了更多的钱，但是这些钱大多流向了产生就业机会较少的领域，比如线上零售业。\n从2019年第三季度结束到2020年第三季度结束，不少主要经济体的债务对国内生产总值比率都出现了大幅度升高，其中美国尤其引人注目，债务从相当于国内生产总值的97%猛增到了127%。\n冈拉克指出，联储资产负债表大致也是同步增长。目前，联储的计划是，在2021年当中让资产负债表每月增长120亿美元，其中80亿美元是来自量化宽松，40亿美元是来自购买抵押债券。\n美国贸易赤字已经开始扩张，达到了国内生产总值的3.4%，虽然扩张幅度有限，但是绝对数字已经是2008年以来最大的了。至于财政赤字，更是呈现“爆炸”态势。双赤字的局面就意味着美元只能是处在长期下滑的通道当中。不过冈拉克目前对美元还是中立的立场，因为双赤字要真正对美元形成实质性的影响，还有十八个月到二十四个月的滞后期。\n“最重大的方向性变化就将是美元的疲软。”此前，美元指数于2016年，以及本次疫情的最初阶段曾经两次见顶，而现在下滑已经是大势所趋。冈拉克表示，标普500指数目前还享受着零利率政策的支撑，但是通货膨胀将成为重量级的“游戏改变者”。此前相当时间内，通货膨胀持续温和，为股票和债券价格提供了有力的支持。不过，伴随通货膨胀高企，这些资产之间的关联也会变得更加密切。\n目前，基于盈利预期的市盈率，标普500指数要比非美市场整体高出6%，远远超出正常情况下的2%。冈拉克指出，这一表现差异已经达到了2008年以来所仅见的水平，“也许美国相对于其他地方的表现已经到了见顶的时刻”。\n目前，美股的周期调整市盈是32，而世界其他市场整体只有16。冈拉克指出，其实与许多人以为的不同，美股并不是总要贵过其他股票的，在互联网泡沫时代之前尤其如此。“美国的周期调整市盈率高于世界其他地方，这绝不是历来如此的。”\n以iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF和SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust分别为代言人，新兴市场股票的表现6月以来就一直要好过美股，一举扭转了2019年年初以来的势头。冈拉克建议投资者增持亚洲市场。事实是，这段时间里，拉丁美洲市场表现还略有下滑，新兴市场的强势主要都是亚洲市场的贡献，其中韩国尤其抢眼。不过冈拉克又补充道，拉美正在卷土重来，因为当地经济正在成为疫苗最早的受益者之一。他的建议是，如果投资者有一定的风险承受力，不妨考虑拉美。\n以芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）2020年当中的平均读数逼近30，大约相当于2013年以来平均读数的近三倍。冈拉克认为，这正是“沧桑巨变”的先声。\n纳指相对于标普500指数的表现，其实已经达到了可以和互联网时代相提并论的水平。冈拉克警告说，所谓FAANG股票已经“引擎过热”。如果这种热度再超过1999年的极端水平，“那就完蛋了”，意思是说，美股价格将全线下滑。\n其他沧桑巨变的迹象还包括，道指的表现当下已经不再好于微型股票了，标普500指数的表现也不再好于小型股票指标罗素2000指数了。冈拉克评论道，小型股票在今年获得了一个“咆哮的开始”，那些资产负债表较差的企业股票，已经无法再维持好于平均水准的表现了。\n那些“僵尸企业”，即利息成本已经超过利润的企业，在全部美国企业当中的占比过去十年以来从8%增加到了15%。这些企业往往都是价格策略激进的玩家，他们的存在和增加造成了去通货膨胀影响，对价格形成了长期压力。\n冈拉克举出了全球银行股票的数据。1995年至今，日本银行股票已经累计下跌84%。欧洲银行股票表现一直追随着美国银行，直至全球金融危机爆发。从那之后，美国银行股票就将欧洲银行远远抛在了身后。这主要是因为低利率乃至负利率对日本和欧洲银行的业务及财务表现造成了非常严重的影响。美国联储始终没有迈出负利率的那一步，这一点对美国银行的表现至关重要。\n以消费价格指数为参照，美国的通货膨胀率已经超过二十年都不到3%了，但是冈拉克认为，这样的局面恐怕很难再持续下去了。虽然说起来，未来依然是通货紧缩（因为债务水平）和通货膨胀（因为印钞）两种可能性并存，但是冈拉克的判断是，到2021年6月，消费者价格指数就将涨过2.5%。\n冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n冈拉克表示，自己目前对黄金是中立的立场，认为目前不是买进的合适机会。他对比特币也是中立的立场，但是同时又强调后者波动太过剧烈——“你可能一小时就亏掉20%”。比特币近期的暴涨背后，很大程度上是依靠着机构投资者背书的叙事，比如亿万富翁投资人琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）的表态。\n股票价格已经相当昂贵，只是相对于债券还算不上昂贵。下图为基于股票周期调整盈利的收益率与十年期国债收益率的相对表现。股票其实依然居于区间接近底部的位置，说明它们相对于债券还算廉价。\n\n根据铜金比率推算，十年期国债收益率本应该是2%才对。冈拉克补充说，其他许多指标也都发出了类似的信号——当前的债券收益率过低了。\n因此，他的预测是，除非联储出手进行收益率曲线控制，不然曲线必然会逐渐趋向陡峭。“如果不发生收益率曲线控制，两年期和十年期国债的收益率差将达到300个基点。”\n另外一个将使得收益率走高的因素是，过去七年时间当中，外国投资者整体而言其实一直是美国国债的净卖家。冈拉克据此发出质疑——财政部想要在不导致收益率飞速上扬的i情况下发行新债，他们是否能够找到足够多的买家，来确保自己的愿望得以实现？\n他还说，银行贷款目前看上去较为“廉价”，而且将从通货膨胀和利率走高的前景当中获益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335680421,"gmtCreate":1610586554963,"gmtModify":1704984725645,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335680421","repostId":"332565330","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332565330,"gmtCreate":1610435760000,"gmtModify":1704983660740,"author":{"id":"3527667638457531","authorId":"3527667638457531","name":"互联网怪盗团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887d4a1db5c87bb18e811a63bbad5e18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667638457531","authorIdStr":"3527667638457531"},"themes":[],"title":"每個人都有必要認真學習“財務報表分析”這門基本功","htmlText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","listText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","text":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e6a17be2534f81a01c0e6769ac5f2d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332565330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332530258,"gmtCreate":1610428893174,"gmtModify":1704983608331,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332530258","repostId":"1107390539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800304338,"gmtCreate":1627275675924,"gmtModify":1703486543161,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is an error","listText":"This is an error","text":"This is an error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800304338","repostId":"1127686463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162607824,"gmtCreate":1624060008268,"gmtModify":1703827720654,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162607824","repostId":"166207379","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166207379,"gmtCreate":1624009730088,"gmtModify":1703826463812,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568081734360099","authorIdStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"一夜之間從65美元到清零，幣圈最大的噩夢終於出現了","htmlText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","listText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","text":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb8429eedd000b87168acb260f2d7f2","width":"240","height":"159"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37515ff8aca46379b035ee5dfd148e9e","width":"550","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d949c356dc8ddbd3d861ef8132360e2d","width":"300","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166207379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819188105,"gmtCreate":1630044566007,"gmtModify":1676530209246,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819188105","repostId":"2162010633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2162010633","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630040923,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162010633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 13:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Daiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162010633","media":"新浪港股","summary":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<p><html><body><div><div><div><img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/hk_stock/min_660/01810.gif\"/></div></div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintained the target price of Xiaomi (01810) of HK$28, which is equivalent to the forecast market ratio of 28 times, while raising the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"hold\" to \"outperform\".</p><p>The bank believes that the recent correction of Xiaomi's share price and the flexibility of fundamentals under the regulatory crackdown have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was steadily better than expected, and the gross profit margin of hardware business in the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectation. The Group announced the acquisition of Deep Motion, an autonomous driving technology company, for its new electric vehicle business, believing that its strategy to gain market share in its products and sales channels has been effective.</p><p><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaiwa: Xiaomi Rises to Outperform Rating Target Price of HK$28\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪港股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 13:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div><div><img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/hk_stock/min_660/01810.gif\"/></div></div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintained the target price of Xiaomi (01810) of HK$28, which is equivalent to the forecast market ratio of 28 times, while raising the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"hold\" to \"outperform\".</p><p>The bank believes that the recent correction of Xiaomi's share price and the flexibility of fundamentals under the regulatory crackdown have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was steadily better than expected, and the gross profit margin of hardware business in the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectation. The Group announced the acquisition of Deep Motion, an autonomous driving technology company, for its new electric vehicle business, believing that its strategy to gain market share in its products and sales channels has been effective.</p><p><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">新浪港股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2ef4a4294363170f247fce5d7ae479","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2162010633","content_text":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831787129,"gmtCreate":1629349936161,"gmtModify":1676530011386,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831787129","repostId":"1151591091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325998229,"gmtCreate":1615855630161,"gmtModify":1704787473807,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325998229","repostId":"2119141992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296276,"gmtCreate":1615108172395,"gmtModify":1704778712701,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296276","repostId":"1150364023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150364023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615082582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150364023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Revelation from the sharp drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150364023","media":" 阿基米德Biotech","summary":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世","content":"<p>Legend has it that fish only have 7 seconds of memory.</p><p>How many days can an investor's memory last?</p><p>We feel that today is terrible, but we have forgotten that the market almost hit the daily limit down on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we have also forgotten that the maximum drop was 20% after the ChiNext index peaked on February 25 last year.</p><p>After a while, I'll forget about the hardships of these past few days.</p><p>The world will remain the same for some time to come; the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for the long term will not change.</p><p><b>About the cycle</b></p><p>The sharp drop after the Spring Festival should not be overstated; for now, it should be seen as a repetition of the standard process after the end of the spring rally, something that happens every year.</p><p>The decline in core assets was greater than in previous years because they rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal pleasure will inevitably have a brutal end.</p><p>A spring rally is bound to come. Even in the bleak and rainy year of 2018, the SSE 50 index saw 19 consecutive days of gains. The spring rally will definitely pass, and I'll tell you that those who experience a bull market are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market would last for about two months, with the highest point almost corresponding to the largest trading volume. During the decline, the volume would gradually decrease, and the decline would be rapid, reaching a low point within a month. Over the past two years, after the spring rally ended, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the ChiNext Index saw a maximum drop of 20%.</p><p>The market has fallen less than in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that cannot see the future, but it can illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will the price continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The US 10-year Treasury Bond yield continued to rise, indicating a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising in tandem. There is no longer any possibility of marginal easing in monetary policy; the only question left is when to shift.</p><p>Therefore, warnings immediately emerged: many people have not experienced the complete cycle and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stock cycles.</p><p>All I want to say is: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Do you know why we only invest in biopharmaceuticals? I just don't want to care about the macro and cyclical aspects.</p><p>In the midst of a systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>However, as long as the main downturn is weathered and the market enters a period of fluctuation, even if it is a gradual decline, the biopharmaceutical industry is not afraid. The advantages of certain growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own trajectory, resulting in a structural market trend.</p><p>The deleveraging in 2018, even if the memories are not good, may still be reminiscent. The market began a year-long decline in February, but CSI Healthcare and CSI Pharmaceutical hit new highs on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and the first centralized procurement, they could have maintained positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Today, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically weather bull and bear markets, and we need to have firm confidence in adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Regarding timing</b></p><p>An important phenomenon in the correction following the end of this spring rally is that trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only trading volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have been implemented yet, and it is also possible that residents' assets can be hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that newly launched funds still had 565.5 billion yuan to build positions, and 72 more equity funds were about to be raised, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Buffett's words are full of wisdom and never outdated; macroeconomic forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>The macroeconomic aspects are unclear, so I won't predict whether the bull and bear markets will shift or how liquidity will tighten in the future. I won't exaggerate the timing.</p><p>Risk appetite also needs to be maintained. Are you afraid when it falls, but wonder why you were afraid in the first place when it rises?</p><p>Have you experienced multiple rounds of ups and downs, or are you still unable to overcome this human nature?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too detached from worldly affairs. The pattern of autumn and winter pullbacks, spring rallies, and subsequent sell-offs is very obvious and can be exploited. However, investing based on predictions of bull and bear market shifts and a full-year decline is too timely.</p><p>Systemic risks will eventually pass. As long as the company itself does not collapse and its growth logic remains intact, it will eventually recover.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. Young fund investors' money cannot be concentrated in traditional industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream investment should still be in growth stocks with decent fundamentals.</p><p>The current problem is that valuations are indeed too overdrawn. Once they fall to a certain level, they become valuable. Leading high-quality assets are digesting their valuations and finding a balanced center. We can observe two anchors: one is Hengrui Medicine, which, if the existing valuation system does not collapse, will be the anchor of the entire biopharmaceutical sector; the other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling, as the trading volume was not large enough during the entire pullback/retracement.</p><p>The Shanghai Composite Index is still a long way from its target level, while the ChiNext Index is almost there. We should remain cautious and not be overly pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. Once systemic risks are released, investors should return to their fundamentals and growth potential.</p><p>liquidity tightening has no impact on biopharmaceutical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotions and timing are not the most important things; stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous quote from Sun Tzu's \"The Art of War\" is: \"Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.\" I didn't understand why such a bland expression was regarded as the golden rule. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is understanding, and it starts with understanding yourself. Experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement should have touched your hearts, and you can consider reflecting on it from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Do your stock holdings match your risk appetite? If you have a poor risk tolerance, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to overvalued, unprofitable, and highly volatile stocks, and to avoid heavily investing in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to handle the relationship between short-term and long-term? If you are very concerned about short-term returns, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to stocks that have great long-term potential but are a mess in the short term.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Organize stocks that are beyond your understanding. High valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitability are difficult to understand. You can choose stocks that you can understand. This will make your stock holding mindset more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses. Give yourself a chance to survive and give good stocks a chance to prove themselves. Tongce Medical, Aier Eye Hospital, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guardian have experienced huge declines. How can they remain completely unnoticed? No need for inner strength; index-based diversified allocation of holdings provides a ballast and a sense of layering. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Kangle Guardian have experienced multiple sharp declines, but they will rise even higher afterward because their allocations are tolerant of short-term mistakes. Don't give yourself a chance to expose your weaknesses, and don't push good stocks to the brink of collapse.</p><p>The emotional standard for measuring whether a portfolio position is reasonable is to feel comfortable and free from pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment matures through ups and downs, and nothing is smooth sailing. Measuring investment on an annual basis is much more relaxed.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic behind CXO's high growth is very strong. High valuations are not entirely due to group buying; once the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>Going away is like pulling silk, and the medical services sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, seeking a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>Tongce Medical's fundamentals and growth potential remain unchanged; the only problem is its high valuation, the controversy surrounding short-term fund alliances, and the loosening of its holdings.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the company continued its good operating trend in the fourth quarter and January of this year, opened on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, achieved good year-on-year growth, and its fundamentals were stable.</p><p>The two future growth curves are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached break-even within six months, demonstrating the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as bad as expected, and Wuhan has achieved very good results. In October 2020, the company's monthly revenue was around 5.5 million yuan, reaching the break-even point. Xi'an Cunji is a hope for expansion outside the province. It is better developed than Wuhan, and its location and talent pool are excellent. The trial operation began on October 9th, with an average monthly revenue of 3 million.</p><p>In the dental implant business, Zhejiang Province has approximately 300,000 dental implants per year, compared to South Korea's 3 million dental implants per year. Zhejiang Province has a huge future market potential for dental implants.</p><p>In the orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce's development of its own digital oral system is more conducive to promoting orthodontic services.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 was 550 million yuan, and it is expected to maintain a 30% growth rate over the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 70, which means that the performance has been overdrawn for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overruns and whether it can maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good sector, it is exclusively profitable, while others suffer losses and have almost no sales expenses, so it can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor amidst volatility; first, cautiously observe the results.</p><p>Time heals all; this isn't motivational quotes.</p><p>Dentistry is a nationwide consumer market, with leading companies having a market capitalization of less than 100 billion yuan. Will this remain the case forever?</p><p>Volatility is normal in the market; sometimes extreme situations can occur, which is inevitable from the moment you enter the market. Even after experiencing multiple rounds of ups and downs, we always become more optimistic when we are optimistic and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right from wrong, but acting on it is a different matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like a person who doesn't get sick, who gets sick once and then gets sick like a mountain. The month after the spring rally ended and the month at the end of the year were both severely affected.</p><p>They expressed a very pessimistic view during the peak of the spring market rally. Now, I also want to say, everything will pass.</p>","source":"lsy1611662960640","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Revelation from the sharp drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRevelation from the sharp drop\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 阿基米德Biotech</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Legend has it that fish only have 7 seconds of memory.</p><p>How many days can an investor's memory last?</p><p>We feel that today is terrible, but we have forgotten that the market almost hit the daily limit down on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we have also forgotten that the maximum drop was 20% after the ChiNext index peaked on February 25 last year.</p><p>After a while, I'll forget about the hardships of these past few days.</p><p>The world will remain the same for some time to come; the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for the long term will not change.</p><p><b>About the cycle</b></p><p>The sharp drop after the Spring Festival should not be overstated; for now, it should be seen as a repetition of the standard process after the end of the spring rally, something that happens every year.</p><p>The decline in core assets was greater than in previous years because they rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal pleasure will inevitably have a brutal end.</p><p>A spring rally is bound to come. Even in the bleak and rainy year of 2018, the SSE 50 index saw 19 consecutive days of gains. The spring rally will definitely pass, and I'll tell you that those who experience a bull market are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market would last for about two months, with the highest point almost corresponding to the largest trading volume. During the decline, the volume would gradually decrease, and the decline would be rapid, reaching a low point within a month. Over the past two years, after the spring rally ended, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the ChiNext Index saw a maximum drop of 20%.</p><p>The market has fallen less than in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that cannot see the future, but it can illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will the price continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The US 10-year Treasury Bond yield continued to rise, indicating a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising in tandem. There is no longer any possibility of marginal easing in monetary policy; the only question left is when to shift.</p><p>Therefore, warnings immediately emerged: many people have not experienced the complete cycle and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stock cycles.</p><p>All I want to say is: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Do you know why we only invest in biopharmaceuticals? I just don't want to care about the macro and cyclical aspects.</p><p>In the midst of a systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>However, as long as the main downturn is weathered and the market enters a period of fluctuation, even if it is a gradual decline, the biopharmaceutical industry is not afraid. The advantages of certain growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own trajectory, resulting in a structural market trend.</p><p>The deleveraging in 2018, even if the memories are not good, may still be reminiscent. The market began a year-long decline in February, but CSI Healthcare and CSI Pharmaceutical hit new highs on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and the first centralized procurement, they could have maintained positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Today, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically weather bull and bear markets, and we need to have firm confidence in adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Regarding timing</b></p><p>An important phenomenon in the correction following the end of this spring rally is that trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only trading volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have been implemented yet, and it is also possible that residents' assets can be hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that newly launched funds still had 565.5 billion yuan to build positions, and 72 more equity funds were about to be raised, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Buffett's words are full of wisdom and never outdated; macroeconomic forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>The macroeconomic aspects are unclear, so I won't predict whether the bull and bear markets will shift or how liquidity will tighten in the future. I won't exaggerate the timing.</p><p>Risk appetite also needs to be maintained. Are you afraid when it falls, but wonder why you were afraid in the first place when it rises?</p><p>Have you experienced multiple rounds of ups and downs, or are you still unable to overcome this human nature?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too detached from worldly affairs. The pattern of autumn and winter pullbacks, spring rallies, and subsequent sell-offs is very obvious and can be exploited. However, investing based on predictions of bull and bear market shifts and a full-year decline is too timely.</p><p>Systemic risks will eventually pass. As long as the company itself does not collapse and its growth logic remains intact, it will eventually recover.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. Young fund investors' money cannot be concentrated in traditional industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream investment should still be in growth stocks with decent fundamentals.</p><p>The current problem is that valuations are indeed too overdrawn. Once they fall to a certain level, they become valuable. Leading high-quality assets are digesting their valuations and finding a balanced center. We can observe two anchors: one is Hengrui Medicine, which, if the existing valuation system does not collapse, will be the anchor of the entire biopharmaceutical sector; the other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling, as the trading volume was not large enough during the entire pullback/retracement.</p><p>The Shanghai Composite Index is still a long way from its target level, while the ChiNext Index is almost there. We should remain cautious and not be overly pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. Once systemic risks are released, investors should return to their fundamentals and growth potential.</p><p>liquidity tightening has no impact on biopharmaceutical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotions and timing are not the most important things; stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous quote from Sun Tzu's \"The Art of War\" is: \"Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.\" I didn't understand why such a bland expression was regarded as the golden rule. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is understanding, and it starts with understanding yourself. Experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement should have touched your hearts, and you can consider reflecting on it from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Do your stock holdings match your risk appetite? If you have a poor risk tolerance, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to overvalued, unprofitable, and highly volatile stocks, and to avoid heavily investing in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to handle the relationship between short-term and long-term? If you are very concerned about short-term returns, it is recommended to avoid or be cautious about allocating to stocks that have great long-term potential but are a mess in the short term.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Organize stocks that are beyond your understanding. High valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitability are difficult to understand. You can choose stocks that you can understand. This will make your stock holding mindset more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses. Give yourself a chance to survive and give good stocks a chance to prove themselves. Tongce Medical, Aier Eye Hospital, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guardian have experienced huge declines. How can they remain completely unnoticed? No need for inner strength; index-based diversified allocation of holdings provides a ballast and a sense of layering. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Kangle Guardian have experienced multiple sharp declines, but they will rise even higher afterward because their allocations are tolerant of short-term mistakes. Don't give yourself a chance to expose your weaknesses, and don't push good stocks to the brink of collapse.</p><p>The emotional standard for measuring whether a portfolio position is reasonable is to feel comfortable and free from pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment matures through ups and downs, and nothing is smooth sailing. Measuring investment on an annual basis is much more relaxed.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic behind CXO's high growth is very strong. High valuations are not entirely due to group buying; once the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>Going away is like pulling silk, and the medical services sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, seeking a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>Tongce Medical's fundamentals and growth potential remain unchanged; the only problem is its high valuation, the controversy surrounding short-term fund alliances, and the loosening of its holdings.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the company continued its good operating trend in the fourth quarter and January of this year, opened on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, achieved good year-on-year growth, and its fundamentals were stable.</p><p>The two future growth curves are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached break-even within six months, demonstrating the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as bad as expected, and Wuhan has achieved very good results. In October 2020, the company's monthly revenue was around 5.5 million yuan, reaching the break-even point. Xi'an Cunji is a hope for expansion outside the province. It is better developed than Wuhan, and its location and talent pool are excellent. The trial operation began on October 9th, with an average monthly revenue of 3 million.</p><p>In the dental implant business, Zhejiang Province has approximately 300,000 dental implants per year, compared to South Korea's 3 million dental implants per year. Zhejiang Province has a huge future market potential for dental implants.</p><p>In the orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce's development of its own digital oral system is more conducive to promoting orthodontic services.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 was 550 million yuan, and it is expected to maintain a 30% growth rate over the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 70, which means that the performance has been overdrawn for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overruns and whether it can maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good sector, it is exclusively profitable, while others suffer losses and have almost no sales expenses, so it can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor amidst volatility; first, cautiously observe the results.</p><p>Time heals all; this isn't motivational quotes.</p><p>Dentistry is a nationwide consumer market, with leading companies having a market capitalization of less than 100 billion yuan. Will this remain the case forever?</p><p>Volatility is normal in the market; sometimes extreme situations can occur, which is inevitable from the moment you enter the market. Even after experiencing multiple rounds of ups and downs, we always become more optimistic when we are optimistic and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right from wrong, but acting on it is a different matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like a person who doesn't get sick, who gets sick once and then gets sick like a mountain. The month after the spring rally ended and the month at the end of the year were both severely affected.</p><p>They expressed a very pessimistic view during the peak of the spring market rally. Now, I also want to say, everything will pass.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ\"> 阿基米德Biotech</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150364023","content_text":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世界还是老样子，拥抱核心资产、长持优质公司的局面不会改变的。\n关于周期\n对春节后大跌不过分演绎，暂时看作重复春季行情结束后的标准流程，每年都会发生的事情。\n核心资产跌幅比往年更大，是因为节前上涨过多，所谓残暴的欢愉，必将有残暴的结局。\n春季行情一定会来，即使凄风冷雨的2018年，上证50也出现了19连涨。春季行情也一定会走，告诉你牛市来了的人是最坏的。\n以往春季行情持续2个月左右，最高点几乎与最大成交量对应，在下跌过程中逐步缩量，而且下跌快速，在一个月内见到阶段低点。过去两年，春季行情结束后，上证指数跌幅超过10%，创业板最大跌幅为20%。\n现在大盘跌幅还不及往年。\n历史是一面镜子，不能看见未来，但可以照清我们所在的位置。\n在标准流程走完之后，是否会持续下跌？美国10年期国债收益率持续走高，代表实际利率回升，通胀升温，中国10年期国债收益率，也在同步走高。货币政策已无边际放松的可能，剩下的只是何时转向的问题。\n所以，立即有警告的声音出现：很多人没有经历过完整的周期轮回，看不见商品周期与科技股周期轮回。\n我只想说：去你的周期！\n知道为什么只投资生物医药吗？就是不想关心宏观和周期。\n系统性危机之下，无一幸免。\n但只要渡过主跌浪，进入震荡期，哪怕是阴跌，生物医药都不怕，头部公司确定性增长的优势将体现，回到自己的运行轨道上来，出现结构性行情。\n2018年去杠杆，记忆再不好可能依旧心有戚戚焉，大盘从2月开始为期一年的阴跌，但中证医疗、中证医药却在5月29日创出新高，如果不是贸易问题和第一次集采，全年可维持正收益。\n如今，贸易问题和集采不再是问题。\n生物医药基本上可以穿越牛熊，我们在逆境时需要坚定信心。\n\n关于择时\n这波春季行情结束之后的调整，有一个重要现象，成交量一直保持平稳。\n只有成交量不会撒谎。\n这到底意味着什么呢？\n流动性收紧可能还没落地，也有可能居民资产通过基金入市有所对冲。\n此前新发基金预估仍有5655亿元资金准备建仓，接下来还有72只权益类基金即将募集，规模预估为3271亿元。\n老巴的话充满了智慧，没有过时，宏观预测对股票投资无意义。\n宏观层面的东西扯不清楚，后面牛熊是否转换、流动性如何收紧，就不预测，不过分择时了。\n需要保持平稳的还有风险偏好，是不是跌的时候怕，涨的时候又觉得当初为什么要怕？\n是不是经历过多轮冷暖交替，还是无法克服这种人性？\n长线投资者无视任何波动，太不食人间烟火，秋冬回调、春季行情、随后的下杀，规律非常明显，是可以利用的。但基于牛熊转换、全年下跌的预测来投资，又过于择时了。\n系统性风险始终会过去的，只要公司本身没有暴雷，成长逻辑还在，最后都会修复的。\n居民资产入市是不可逆的，年轻基民的钱不可能集中于钢铁、有色、煤炭、银行这些传统行业，主流还是配置基本面尚可的成长股。\n现在的问题是估值确实透支得太厉害，跌到一定程度就有价值了，头部优质资产正在消化估值，寻找一个平衡的中枢。我们可以观察两个锚，一个是恒瑞医药，如果现有估值体系不崩溃，就是整个生物医药板块的定海神针，另一个是通策医疗什么时候止跌，整个回撤过程中，量能放得不够大。\n上证离目标位还有较大距离，创业板快到了，保持足够谨慎，也不用过于悲观。\n优质股票长期而言是由内生增长驱动，当系统性风险释放后，投资者的关切应回到基本面和成长性上。\n流动性收紧对生物医药业绩无影响，在存量经济时代，可持续的高增长有稀缺性，可享受溢价。\n情绪、择时不是最重要的事情，选股、配置才是。\n\n关于认知\n《孙子兵法》中最出名的一句话：知己知彼,百战不殆。以前不明白为什么很平淡的表述，被奉为圭臬。现在懂了，凡事最重要的是认知，而且是从认知自己开始，经历这波回撤，各位内心应有触动，可考虑从以下方面进行反思。\n1、持股是否与自己的风险偏好匹配？如果风险承受能力差，建议不要或谨慎配置高估值、未盈利、高波动股票，不要重仓疫苗股、港股、CXO。\n2、怎么处理短期和长期的关系？如果非常在意短期收益，建议不要或谨慎配置长期空间大但短期一塌糊涂的股票。\n3、不懂不做，对超出认知氛围的股票进行整理，高估值、大市值、未盈利都难以理解，可以选择能理解的品种，这样持股心态更平稳。\n4、不要去挑衅自己的弱点，给自己活下去的机会，给好股票证明自己的机会。通策医疗、爱尔眼科、华韩整形、康乐卫士跌幅巨大，怎样做到毫无感觉？无需内心强大，对持仓进行指数化分散配置，有压舱石有层次感。华韩整形、康乐卫士经历过多次暴跌，但过后又会涨得更高，因为配置对短期错误有包容性。不要给自己弱点暴露的机会，也不要把好股票逼上绝境。\n衡量组合仓位是否合理的感性标准，就是让自己感到舒服，没有压力。\n长线投资经过冷暖更迭才会成熟，凡事没有一帆风顺的，以年为单位来度量投资会淡然许多。\n关于通策\nCXO高增长逻辑很硬，高估值不完全是抱团所致，市场企稳之后又将是反弹最快的板块。\n病去如抽丝，医疗服务板块估计会持续震荡，寻找估值中枢，等待市场重新达成共识。\n基本面的崩溃是无底深渊。\n通策医疗的基本面和成长性没变，唯一问题是高估值，短期基金抱团受到争议，筹码松动。\n据通策医疗交流会透露，四季度和今年1月份延续良好的经营趋势，年初四就开业，同比增长良好，基本盘是稳定的。\n未来两条增长曲线是正常的。蒲公英计划推进顺利，部分诊所半年达到盈亏平衡，显示商业模式的可复制性。省外存济医院没有预期那么不堪，武汉取得很好效果。2020年10月单月550万左右收入，达到盈亏平衡线。西安存济是省外拓展的希望，比武汉发展更好，选址体量和人才都很好。10月9号开始试营业，平均月收入300万。\n种植业务，浙江全省大约30万颗，对标韩国一年300万颗，浙江省未来种植牙市场空间很大。\n正畸业务，年轻人正畸需求很旺盛，通策开发自己的数字化口腔系统，更有利于推广正畸业务。\n2020年估计利润5.5亿，未来两年维持30%增速，2023年利润12亿，PE70，也就是说业绩透支两三年。\n现在的问题是市场能不能接受估值透支，能不能维持30%增速。\n作为好赛道唯一龙头，独家盈利，别家亏损，销售费用几乎没有，是可以享受高溢价的。\n市场会在震荡中寻找到一个合适的锚，先谨慎观察结果。\n时间会治愈一切，这不是鸡汤。\n牙科属于全民级消费市场，龙头市值不到1000亿，会永远这样吗？\n波动是市场的常态，有时会遇到极端情况，这是进入市场的那一刻已经注定的。，即使经历过多轮涨跌，我们也总是会在乐观时更加乐观，悲观时更加悲观，明知对错，但做起来是另外一回事。\n生物医药大部时间比较平稳，就像不生病的人，偶然生一次病就病来如山倒。春季行情结束后一个月，年末一个月，挨打都比较惨。\n在春季行情最亢奋的时候，表达了非常悲观的看法。现在，我也要说，一切都会过去的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296135,"gmtCreate":1615108128227,"gmtModify":1704778713992,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o(∩_∩)o","listText":"o(∩_∩)o","text":"o(∩_∩)o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296135","repostId":"367210472","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":367210472,"gmtCreate":1614953502796,"gmtModify":1704777393275,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"39105730803552","authorIdStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼","htmlText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","listText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","text":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/defba801566b7ef284c60411abf03e21","width":"1150","height":"832"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a2ea2dd4ddc860b76248eabaa836713","width":"576","height":"425"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04912baf968ccaf9e0cf0433f58dcd7","width":"622","height":"350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367210472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296918,"gmtCreate":1615108094634,"gmtModify":1704778712379,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296918","repostId":"362539769","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362539769,"gmtCreate":1614647792251,"gmtModify":1704773471458,"author":{"id":"3473897258980608","authorId":"3473897258980608","name":"生财小王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda8b36c8158f92ecbc8381b5c65c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473897258980608","authorIdStr":"3473897258980608"},"themes":[],"title":"搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白","htmlText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","listText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","text":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8a4fd09f0b66373422754edf89a2b","width":"640","height":"234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69b5659348a6e6abd7d72a1b92655e7","width":"640","height":"1137"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a683acaf97eb94dcc597f38ecb17f6","width":"640","height":"342"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362539769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360505812,"gmtCreate":1613952505136,"gmtModify":1704886046375,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360505812","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360662299,"gmtCreate":1613907867911,"gmtModify":1704885842202,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360662299","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}