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农村小伙2
2021-04-07
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Next 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares
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Dislocation of post-epidemic recovery in overseas countries</b></p><p>Let's talk about recent worries first. Recently, the overseas economy seems to be okay, but first look at the picture below. As of last weekend (as of March 27), the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination. Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from everyone's expectations after Pfizer announced the availability of the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than that of the United States. This can trigger a lot of thinking about the international situation, so I won't expand on it here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries that may get rid of the constraints of the epidemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-epidemic outlook of the entire overseas economy from some future changes in the U.S. economy, including how to view the impact of the U.S. on China's exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of U.S. real estate sales</b></p><p><b>The epidemic is coming to an end, and U.S. real estate is cooling down.</b>Last year, we thought that the current 10-year real estate rising cycle in the United States had only reached the first half, but in February, the sales data of second-hand houses (existing houses) and first-hand houses (new houses) in the United States dropped rapidly. Why did we think U.S. real estate was in a decade-up cycle last year? From the perspective of the three factors that affect the real estate of the economy, urbanization process, credit environment and population, the first two factors are neutral in the United States at present. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the age group of buying houses (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and can continue to rise to 2026, which is an important basis for our judgment. And last year, U.S. real estate did hit a record high in sales volume in 14 years, with a record high amount.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle.</b>To reflect on it, last year's real estate in the United States was a bit unusual, and the slope was very steep. The epidemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying houses, but last year, the main participants in U.S. real estate were middle-class and high-net-worth groups. The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. Your house purchase cycle in Shanghai or Beijing is at least half a year to more than one year, and you need to have a spare time before you can look at the house. Under the epidemic, the house purchase cycle has been greatly shortened. With online VR viewing, the house purchase cycle may be completed in half a month to a month. Therefore, we saw very strong real estate sales in the United States last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and the renewed lengthening of the home purchase cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales during the year.</b>The current situation is that even if the price of second-hand houses in the United States rises under the epidemic, the inventory has dropped to two months' destocking time. That is, according to the sales data in January, the second-hand houses will be sold out in two months. The absence of inventory naturally constrains sales. It seems that new housing will not be affected, because there will be new starts to support the supply of new housing. However, as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal levels, we do see that the new home destocking cycle is rebounding but still at the lower limit.</p><p><b>The start of real estate construction replaces sales, which is called the highlight of real estate during the year.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is not bad compared with before the epidemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising house prices and high real estate prosperity, American real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared with last year, the most important bright spot in American real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the economic structure of the United States and also affect China's export structure</b></p><p>The demand of the United States has greatly boosted China's exports. How to understand the demand of the United States since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted after the epidemic.</b>Before the epidemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumption object was service, accounting for 70%. However, this part of the recovery is completely different from that of China. China's services have slowly climbed since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States has not increased from August last year to February this year. There may only be a qualitative change after herd immunity..</p><p>After the epidemic in the United States, the finance has been making transfer payments to residents. Income has risen instead of falling, and service consumption has been restricted, which will definitely shift personal consumption tendencies in the United States to other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. At the same time, real estate consumption in the United States has been relatively strong since the second quarter of last year, which will bring two direct demands. One is furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and the other is the increase in demand for cars after buying a house in the suburbs under social distance. With the superposition of the above factors, we saw that the year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year was unusually high, reaching double digits, which was rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's To C-end exports to the United States..</p><p><b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States will drop sharply, and China's To C-end exports to the United States may slow down.</b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, there will be a big change in the demand structure of the United States, that is, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods will drop significantly. There are three reasons: First, if finance has an impact on consumption in the United States, and the third round of fiscal stimulus must be the last round, the epidemic is coming to an end, what reason do you have to send money to everyone? Second, if we think that the United States achieves herd immunity around June-July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and squeeze out the durable goods consumption demand. Third, U.S. real estate sales this year are destined to be less prosperous than last year, which may also inhibit the post-real estate cycle and consumer demand for automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. real estate starts and capital expenditures are bright spots, which have boosted China's To B-end exports.</b>If the consumption demand of durable goods or entire commodities in the United States declines, it will naturally not be as friendly to China's To C-end exports as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, there are still bright spots in the U.S. economy. First, real estate construction is very active. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be OK in March; Second, the M1 in the United States is very high, and companies and ordinary people are very rich. The capital expenditure demands that were suppressed for a year last year are expected to burst out after herd immunity. The start of real estate construction plus capital expenditure means that the demand on the To B side in the United States is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter: the To C side declines but the To B side improves.</p><p><b>(2) The Federal Reserve may tighten currency in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed may cut QE in Q3</b></p><p>A good economy seems to be a good thing, so why is it a near worry? Because a good economy will give a reason to tighten monetary policy. Both residents and enterprises in the United States have money in their hands, and they are their own funds. Consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, for the Fed, when she needs to tighten monetary policy, she will not hesitate. In the third quarter, we believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut QE for two reasons.</p><p>First, in the past few decades, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has been negatively correlated with the leverage ratio of the U.S. government for a long time. This is because the U.S. can turn a fiscal deficit. Every QE in the U.S. is nothing more than helping the finance to suppress the issuance cost of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure of infrastructure is balanced with tax increases, we will not see the U.S. deficit ratio rising significantly in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States can achieve full employment in 2022. His speech contains monetary policy implications, which means that the United States is likely to guide rate hike's expectations in the second half of next year. We can push it backwards. After the financial crisis, rate hike needs to end QE before, and cut QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to cut QE in 2014, and backwards, QE may begin to be cut in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. U.S. bonds may hit 2.25% in mid-10Y next year</b></p><p>We can use the interest rate spread to backward what high point the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond may reach next year. Friends who make debts must know that interest rate bonds have carry trading strategies such as Niudou, Xiongdou, Xiongping and Niuping. The United States is very regular. No matter what the reason for the economic recession and recovery is, the spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds always runs regularly, from inverted to above 2.5%, then inverted to above 2.5%. From the inversion to the peak of the spread, it must have gone through a bull steep, then to a bear steep, and then into a bear flat. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Combined with Yellen's speech, we are likely to see the peak spread between 10-year and 2-year interest rates before the second half of next year.</p><p>It can be seen that even conservatively, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in the second and third quarters of next year will be at least more than 2%. The current upper limit of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield will be slightly higher than 2.25% in the middle of next year. Perhaps there was a lot of capital allocation at that stage. For example, after the yield rose above 1% in January, China and Japan, which originally held U.S. debt, increased their allocation of U.S. debt. Last year, when the interest rate was very low, they kept reducing their holdings. Overall, the upward trend of 10-year U.S. bond yields should not be over yet, which means that there seems to be still risks behind U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Q3 U.S. stock adjustment risk is relatively high</b></p><p>From the perspective of qualitative, quantitative and calendar effects, there is still room for U.S. stocks to rise in April and May, and the probability and magnitude of downward trend from June to September will be very large.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative point of view.</b>First of all, since last year, every time the United States has easing its fiscal policy, the market has performed very positively, and even some retail investors have begun to shout the situation, which is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfer payments. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, market participation will increase, and risk appetite will also increase. In addition, after the third round of fiscal stimulus, there will be some expenditures involving virus testing and vaccine procurement, which means that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and expectations for economic improvement will also help. Finally, it is difficult for the U.S. government to tighten the currency when the fiscal policy is easing. The U.S. monetary policy will not tighten in the short term for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the U.S. can rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of U.S. stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April, and May perform well, and the worst of the 12 months is June-September.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you will find that U.S. stocks are not only affected by the U.S. economy, but also by overseas economies. Because there are many multinational companies in the United States, the overseas profits of the entire enterprise account for 30%. The U.S. economy is not good enough to support the performance of the stock market. Therefore, the U.S. economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the U.S. stock market, which is different from the structure of the U.S. economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the U.S. stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the U.S. stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that the fitting to the U.S. stock market was okay. The comparison between the fitting results and the actual values shows that there is no signal of overrising U.S. stocks, and our results show that they will rise again in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking back in June, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks is very high.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, it can be seen from Figure 1 that the global herd immunity is misaligned, which is different from what was expected when the epidemic came out. In the same way, some flaws in demand for herd immunity will be exposed, that is, previous expectations are too optimistic. In addition, as long as the Federal Reserve will cut QE in the third quarter, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2% within the year, and there is a high probability that it will be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on U.S. stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in U.S. stocks in the early days of his term of office.</b>Looking further, U.S. stocks have risen more and fallen less over the years, but the decline is very regular, concentrated in the two years before each president takes office. There must be economic factors, because the policy dividend has not been released two years before taking office, and the economy has just experienced a recession. But it is not denied that there are other factors. U.S. stocks are the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a beautiful report card in the middle of his administration. When will the risk of US stocks be released? Maybe it would be better to release it early in office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increase + infrastructure is the terminator of the logic of the bull market in US stocks after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been proposing tax increases and infrastructure construction. In fact, there is no chance to land this fiscal year, but why do you keep releasing such signals? Tax increases and infrastructure construction are equivalent to the terminator of the logic of the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis, because the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis is nothing more than a technology bull, and the macro environment on which it depends is low inflation, low interest rates, and some U.S. stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken the logic of EPS and U.S. stock repurchases, and infrastructure is matched to U.S. real estate and other factors to a certain extent, which may have some boost to inflation expectations. Originally, if we only did infrastructure construction, everyone would think that the U.S. fiscal deficit would be very high and monetary policy would be loose. However, with the fiscal balance under the tax increase, the ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks this year is relatively high.</p><p><b>Part 2: Foresight in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Two factors look at the long-term trend of U.S. debt</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10Y U.S. bonds</b></p><p>The above are our near-term worries. Let's take a look at the long-term worries, not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>U.S. bond yields are affected by economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, we all know that U.S. debt is a special interest rate bond. If China's Treasury Bond is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals, U.S. debt has some allocation value and safe-haven value, and is influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend must be related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year U.S. bonds and the growth rate of the U.S. labor force are on the same trend. The non-economic factor is the monetization of fiscal deficit. When the leverage ratio of the US government goes up, the risk-free interest rate must go down, otherwise the United States will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it the downward stage of the leverage ratio of the US government, and the risk-free interest rate must go up? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about a question, why the risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio in the United States sometimes went up and sometimes went down in the past few decades. This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. In the United States, the two parties take turns in power, but not every time they take turns to obtain certificates, it means that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 U.S. election, there were only three alternations of the ruling influence of the two parties after World War I. The Democratic Party represents the big government. If everyone praises the Democratic Party more, that is, the society is calling for fairness; The Republican Party represents a small government and pursues efficiency. Advocating the Republican Party means that the whole society advocates efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a node. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the proportion of the middle class was very low, and the society began to admire the Democratic Party. How to achieve fairness? He can be compared to a game of tortoise and hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, we should prevent the rabbit from running fast in the rules of the game. First, increase taxes and \"rob the rich and help the poor\" through secondary distribution; The second is to moderately raise the risk-free interest rate. A low risk-free interest rate is conducive to the increase of net wealth, but it is difficult to make a positive contribution to low-income people.</p><p>In the 1980s, the social structure of the United States was well optimized. After the two oil crises in the 1970s and the persistent high unemployment rate, the society began to reject the fair policy of the Democratic Party, but instead praised the efficiency policy of the Republican Party. Therefore, in 1980, with Reagan's election as a landmark event, the United States has entered a stage of rising Republican influence and pursuing efficiency. We see tax cut periods, government leverage increases and risk-free rates fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year U.S. bond yields may rise in the next 10 years</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election are the third alternation of bipartisan influence since World War I. Therefore, in the future, the leverage ratio of the US government will decrease, and the risk-free interest rate can rise. Because the United States is an immigrant country, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of labor force will rebound a little in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the 10-year U.S. bond center may move up slightly in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) The style of US stocks may welcome a long-term switch</b></p><p><b>1. The ebb of science and technology; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>The downward shift in U.S. bond yields is better for long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a great impact on the logic of US stocks. In the past few decades, technology stocks have benefited greatly because the downward shift in U.S. bond yields is more favorable for long-term assets. The two bull markets in U.S. stocks after the 1980s were both technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets, because for technology stocks, we use some logic in the next ten or twenty years to deduce what kind of stock price and valuation it may achieve now.</p><p><b>The tech bull is about to ebb.</b>If we think that the downward trend in the 10-year U.S. bond yield is over, no matter what its upward trend is, and now the valuation of U.S. stocks (the S&P 500's 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E) is so high, theoretically the style of U.S. stocks may change in the next 10 years. The technology bull is about to ebb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"grounded\" assets will be better, including core consumption, medicine and education. Second, there should also be opportunities related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The U.S. stock-to-housing ratio will fall in the next 10 years</b></p><p><b>There is a rotation cycle of about 10 years between the U.S. stock market and the housing market, and the ratio of stocks to houses may fall back in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the U.S. market, that is, the rotation between U.S. stocks and real estate. First, although we think that the next 10 years will be the ebb of technology stocks, there will still be U.S. assets that perform well. But now the technology and financial industries do account for a relatively high weight in U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 index, which means that if technology stocks ebb, the index performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are now in the first half of the ten-year upward cycle of U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the high point of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle of stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is good for the non-US market.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally speaking, U.S. stocks are considered a type of core asset. In the rising stage of U.S. stock-to-real estate ratio, it is equivalent to global funds holding U.S. stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may be relatively small. At this time, the performance of U.S. stocks should be better than that of non-U.S. markets. On the other hand, the decline in the stock-to-property ratio is likely to indicate that the capital group is dissolving. Global funds will not be invested in real estate in large quantities because there is no liquidity. When funds are dissolved in groups, funds will go to the United States to look for opportunities overseas, and non-American markets will be expressive.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another rule in the non-American market. No matter Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, China, the same rule has been proved. As long as a country or region crosses the trap of middle-income countries and becomes a high-income country (region), the stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the next 10 years or even Japan's 20 years at that time. On the one hand, the reason is that foreign capital will change from low-allocation to standard or even over-allocation, and on the other hand, residents' assets will move.</p><p>In the next 10 years, if the opportunity for the stock market is in non-American, then the opportunity for non-American will be in A-shares. We know that China can cross the middle-income country trap probably from 2023 to 2024. In fact, China's economic variance is very large, and the per capita GDP of Greater Bay Area has already crossed it. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen that some overseas indexes have already allocated some A-shares. I believe that A-shares will have long-term opportunities in the next 10 years. In the short term, everyone may struggle with the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is good in the long term. I hope everyone can be friends of time, and I wish everyone a winner in the market.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>Recent worries in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will cut QE and rate hike; Foresight does not refer to our worries about the long-term situation, but more about our thinking about the prospect of 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part 1: Recent worries in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Looking at overseas post-epidemic prospects from changes in the U.S. economy</b></p><p><b>1. Dislocation of post-epidemic recovery in overseas countries</b></p><p>Let's talk about recent worries first. Recently, the overseas economy seems to be okay, but first look at the picture below. As of last weekend (as of March 27), the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination. Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from everyone's expectations after Pfizer announced the availability of the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than that of the United States. This can trigger a lot of thinking about the international situation, so I won't expand on it here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries that may get rid of the constraints of the epidemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-epidemic outlook of the entire overseas economy from some future changes in the U.S. economy, including how to view the impact of the U.S. on China's exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of U.S. real estate sales</b></p><p><b>The epidemic is coming to an end, and U.S. real estate is cooling down.</b>Last year, we thought that the current 10-year real estate rising cycle in the United States had only reached the first half, but in February, the sales data of second-hand houses (existing houses) and first-hand houses (new houses) in the United States dropped rapidly. Why did we think U.S. real estate was in a decade-up cycle last year? From the perspective of the three factors that affect the real estate of the economy, urbanization process, credit environment and population, the first two factors are neutral in the United States at present. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the age group of buying houses (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and can continue to rise to 2026, which is an important basis for our judgment. And last year, U.S. real estate did hit a record high in sales volume in 14 years, with a record high amount.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle.</b>To reflect on it, last year's real estate in the United States was a bit unusual, and the slope was very steep. The epidemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying houses, but last year, the main participants in U.S. real estate were middle-class and high-net-worth groups. The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. Your house purchase cycle in Shanghai or Beijing is at least half a year to more than one year, and you need to have a spare time before you can look at the house. Under the epidemic, the house purchase cycle has been greatly shortened. With online VR viewing, the house purchase cycle may be completed in half a month to a month. Therefore, we saw very strong real estate sales in the United States last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and the renewed lengthening of the home purchase cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales during the year.</b>The current situation is that even if the price of second-hand houses in the United States rises under the epidemic, the inventory has dropped to two months' destocking time. That is, according to the sales data in January, the second-hand houses will be sold out in two months. The absence of inventory naturally constrains sales. It seems that new housing will not be affected, because there will be new starts to support the supply of new housing. However, as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal levels, we do see that the new home destocking cycle is rebounding but still at the lower limit.</p><p><b>The start of real estate construction replaces sales, which is called the highlight of real estate during the year.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is not bad compared with before the epidemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising house prices and high real estate prosperity, American real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared with last year, the most important bright spot in American real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the economic structure of the United States and also affect China's export structure</b></p><p>The demand of the United States has greatly boosted China's exports. How to understand the demand of the United States since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted after the epidemic.</b>Before the epidemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumption object was service, accounting for 70%. However, this part of the recovery is completely different from that of China. China's services have slowly climbed since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States has not increased from August last year to February this year. There may only be a qualitative change after herd immunity..</p><p>After the epidemic in the United States, the finance has been making transfer payments to residents. Income has risen instead of falling, and service consumption has been restricted, which will definitely shift personal consumption tendencies in the United States to other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. At the same time, real estate consumption in the United States has been relatively strong since the second quarter of last year, which will bring two direct demands. One is furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and the other is the increase in demand for cars after buying a house in the suburbs under social distance. With the superposition of the above factors, we saw that the year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year was unusually high, reaching double digits, which was rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's To C-end exports to the United States..</p><p><b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States will drop sharply, and China's To C-end exports to the United States may slow down.</b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, there will be a big change in the demand structure of the United States, that is, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods will drop significantly. There are three reasons: First, if finance has an impact on consumption in the United States, and the third round of fiscal stimulus must be the last round, the epidemic is coming to an end, what reason do you have to send money to everyone? Second, if we think that the United States achieves herd immunity around June-July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and squeeze out the durable goods consumption demand. Third, U.S. real estate sales this year are destined to be less prosperous than last year, which may also inhibit the post-real estate cycle and consumer demand for automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. real estate starts and capital expenditures are bright spots, which have boosted China's To B-end exports.</b>If the consumption demand of durable goods or entire commodities in the United States declines, it will naturally not be as friendly to China's To C-end exports as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, there are still bright spots in the U.S. economy. First, real estate construction is very active. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be OK in March; Second, the M1 in the United States is very high, and companies and ordinary people are very rich. The capital expenditure demands that were suppressed for a year last year are expected to burst out after herd immunity. The start of real estate construction plus capital expenditure means that the demand on the To B side in the United States is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter: the To C side declines but the To B side improves.</p><p><b>(2) The Federal Reserve may tighten currency in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed may cut QE in Q3</b></p><p>A good economy seems to be a good thing, so why is it a near worry? Because a good economy will give a reason to tighten monetary policy. Both residents and enterprises in the United States have money in their hands, and they are their own funds. Consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, for the Fed, when she needs to tighten monetary policy, she will not hesitate. In the third quarter, we believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut QE for two reasons.</p><p>First, in the past few decades, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has been negatively correlated with the leverage ratio of the U.S. government for a long time. This is because the U.S. can turn a fiscal deficit. Every QE in the U.S. is nothing more than helping the finance to suppress the issuance cost of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure of infrastructure is balanced with tax increases, we will not see the U.S. deficit ratio rising significantly in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States can achieve full employment in 2022. His speech contains monetary policy implications, which means that the United States is likely to guide rate hike's expectations in the second half of next year. We can push it backwards. After the financial crisis, rate hike needs to end QE before, and cut QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to cut QE in 2014, and backwards, QE may begin to be cut in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. U.S. bonds may hit 2.25% in mid-10Y next year</b></p><p>We can use the interest rate spread to backward what high point the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond may reach next year. Friends who make debts must know that interest rate bonds have carry trading strategies such as Niudou, Xiongdou, Xiongping and Niuping. The United States is very regular. No matter what the reason for the economic recession and recovery is, the spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds always runs regularly, from inverted to above 2.5%, then inverted to above 2.5%. From the inversion to the peak of the spread, it must have gone through a bull steep, then to a bear steep, and then into a bear flat. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Combined with Yellen's speech, we are likely to see the peak spread between 10-year and 2-year interest rates before the second half of next year.</p><p>It can be seen that even conservatively, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in the second and third quarters of next year will be at least more than 2%. The current upper limit of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield will be slightly higher than 2.25% in the middle of next year. Perhaps there was a lot of capital allocation at that stage. For example, after the yield rose above 1% in January, China and Japan, which originally held U.S. debt, increased their allocation of U.S. debt. Last year, when the interest rate was very low, they kept reducing their holdings. Overall, the upward trend of 10-year U.S. bond yields should not be over yet, which means that there seems to be still risks behind U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Q3 U.S. stock adjustment risk is relatively high</b></p><p>From the perspective of qualitative, quantitative and calendar effects, there is still room for U.S. stocks to rise in April and May, and the probability and magnitude of downward trend from June to September will be very large.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative point of view.</b>First of all, since last year, every time the United States has easing its fiscal policy, the market has performed very positively, and even some retail investors have begun to shout the situation, which is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfer payments. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, market participation will increase, and risk appetite will also increase. In addition, after the third round of fiscal stimulus, there will be some expenditures involving virus testing and vaccine procurement, which means that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and expectations for economic improvement will also help. Finally, it is difficult for the U.S. government to tighten the currency when the fiscal policy is easing. The U.S. monetary policy will not tighten in the short term for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the U.S. can rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of U.S. stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April, and May perform well, and the worst of the 12 months is June-September.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you will find that U.S. stocks are not only affected by the U.S. economy, but also by overseas economies. Because there are many multinational companies in the United States, the overseas profits of the entire enterprise account for 30%. The U.S. economy is not good enough to support the performance of the stock market. Therefore, the U.S. economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the U.S. stock market, which is different from the structure of the U.S. economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the U.S. stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the U.S. stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that the fitting to the U.S. stock market was okay. The comparison between the fitting results and the actual values shows that there is no signal of overrising U.S. stocks, and our results show that they will rise again in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking back in June, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks is very high.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, it can be seen from Figure 1 that the global herd immunity is misaligned, which is different from what was expected when the epidemic came out. In the same way, some flaws in demand for herd immunity will be exposed, that is, previous expectations are too optimistic. In addition, as long as the Federal Reserve will cut QE in the third quarter, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2% within the year, and there is a high probability that it will be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on U.S. stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in U.S. stocks in the early days of his term of office.</b>Looking further, U.S. stocks have risen more and fallen less over the years, but the decline is very regular, concentrated in the two years before each president takes office. There must be economic factors, because the policy dividend has not been released two years before taking office, and the economy has just experienced a recession. But it is not denied that there are other factors. U.S. stocks are the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a beautiful report card in the middle of his administration. When will the risk of US stocks be released? Maybe it would be better to release it early in office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increase + infrastructure is the terminator of the logic of the bull market in US stocks after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been proposing tax increases and infrastructure construction. In fact, there is no chance to land this fiscal year, but why do you keep releasing such signals? Tax increases and infrastructure construction are equivalent to the terminator of the logic of the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis, because the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis is nothing more than a technology bull, and the macro environment on which it depends is low inflation, low interest rates, and some U.S. stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken the logic of EPS and U.S. stock repurchases, and infrastructure is matched to U.S. real estate and other factors to a certain extent, which may have some boost to inflation expectations. Originally, if we only did infrastructure construction, everyone would think that the U.S. fiscal deficit would be very high and monetary policy would be loose. However, with the fiscal balance under the tax increase, the ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks this year is relatively high.</p><p><b>Part 2: Foresight in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Two factors look at the long-term trend of U.S. debt</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10Y U.S. bonds</b></p><p>The above are our near-term worries. Let's take a look at the long-term worries, not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>U.S. bond yields are affected by economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, we all know that U.S. debt is a special interest rate bond. If China's Treasury Bond is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals, U.S. debt has some allocation value and safe-haven value, and is influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend must be related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year U.S. bonds and the growth rate of the U.S. labor force are on the same trend. The non-economic factor is the monetization of fiscal deficit. When the leverage ratio of the US government goes up, the risk-free interest rate must go down, otherwise the United States will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it the downward stage of the leverage ratio of the US government, and the risk-free interest rate must go up? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about a question, why the risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio in the United States sometimes went up and sometimes went down in the past few decades. This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. In the United States, the two parties take turns in power, but not every time they take turns to obtain certificates, it means that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 U.S. election, there were only three alternations of the ruling influence of the two parties after World War I. The Democratic Party represents the big government. If everyone praises the Democratic Party more, that is, the society is calling for fairness; The Republican Party represents a small government and pursues efficiency. Advocating the Republican Party means that the whole society advocates efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a node. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the proportion of the middle class was very low, and the society began to admire the Democratic Party. How to achieve fairness? He can be compared to a game of tortoise and hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, we should prevent the rabbit from running fast in the rules of the game. First, increase taxes and \"rob the rich and help the poor\" through secondary distribution; The second is to moderately raise the risk-free interest rate. A low risk-free interest rate is conducive to the increase of net wealth, but it is difficult to make a positive contribution to low-income people.</p><p>In the 1980s, the social structure of the United States was well optimized. After the two oil crises in the 1970s and the persistent high unemployment rate, the society began to reject the fair policy of the Democratic Party, but instead praised the efficiency policy of the Republican Party. Therefore, in 1980, with Reagan's election as a landmark event, the United States has entered a stage of rising Republican influence and pursuing efficiency. We see tax cut periods, government leverage increases and risk-free rates fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year U.S. bond yields may rise in the next 10 years</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election are the third alternation of bipartisan influence since World War I. Therefore, in the future, the leverage ratio of the US government will decrease, and the risk-free interest rate can rise. Because the United States is an immigrant country, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of labor force will rebound a little in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the 10-year U.S. bond center may move up slightly in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) The style of US stocks may welcome a long-term switch</b></p><p><b>1. The ebb of science and technology; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>The downward shift in U.S. bond yields is better for long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a great impact on the logic of US stocks. In the past few decades, technology stocks have benefited greatly because the downward shift in U.S. bond yields is more favorable for long-term assets. The two bull markets in U.S. stocks after the 1980s were both technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets, because for technology stocks, we use some logic in the next ten or twenty years to deduce what kind of stock price and valuation it may achieve now.</p><p><b>The tech bull is about to ebb.</b>If we think that the downward trend in the 10-year U.S. bond yield is over, no matter what its upward trend is, and now the valuation of U.S. stocks (the S&P 500's 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E) is so high, theoretically the style of U.S. stocks may change in the next 10 years. The technology bull is about to ebb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"grounded\" assets will be better, including core consumption, medicine and education. Second, there should also be opportunities related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The U.S. stock-to-housing ratio will fall in the next 10 years</b></p><p><b>There is a rotation cycle of about 10 years between the U.S. stock market and the housing market, and the ratio of stocks to houses may fall back in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the U.S. market, that is, the rotation between U.S. stocks and real estate. First, although we think that the next 10 years will be the ebb of technology stocks, there will still be U.S. assets that perform well. But now the technology and financial industries do account for a relatively high weight in U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 index, which means that if technology stocks ebb, the index performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are now in the first half of the ten-year upward cycle of U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the high point of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle of stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is good for the non-US market.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally speaking, U.S. stocks are considered a type of core asset. In the rising stage of U.S. stock-to-real estate ratio, it is equivalent to global funds holding U.S. stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may be relatively small. At this time, the performance of U.S. stocks should be better than that of non-U.S. markets. On the other hand, the decline in the stock-to-property ratio is likely to indicate that the capital group is dissolving. Global funds will not be invested in real estate in large quantities because there is no liquidity. When funds are dissolved in groups, funds will go to the United States to look for opportunities overseas, and non-American markets will be expressive.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another rule in the non-American market. No matter Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, China, the same rule has been proved. As long as a country or region crosses the trap of middle-income countries and becomes a high-income country (region), the stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the next 10 years or even Japan's 20 years at that time. On the one hand, the reason is that foreign capital will change from low-allocation to standard or even over-allocation, and on the other hand, residents' assets will move.</p><p>In the next 10 years, if the opportunity for the stock market is in non-American, then the opportunity for non-American will be in A-shares. We know that China can cross the middle-income country trap probably from 2023 to 2024. In fact, China's economic variance is very large, and the per capita GDP of Greater Bay Area has already crossed it. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen that some overseas indexes have already allocated some A-shares. I believe that A-shares will have long-term opportunities in the next 10 years. In the short term, everyone may struggle with the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is good in the long term. I hope everyone can be friends of time, and I wish everyone a winner in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1128707770","content_text":"作者：张静静\n海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息；远虑并不是指我们对于长期形势的担忧、更多是对于5-10年前景的思考，包括海外资产风格的变化，还有美股风格的变化。\n第一部分：海外市场的近忧\n（一）由美国经济变化看海外疫后前景\n1. 海外各国疫后恢复错位\n先说近忧，最近海外经济看起来还可以，但是先看下面这张图，截止到上周末（截至3月27日）主要海外经济体完成疫苗接种的人口占比。释放了两个信号，第一个信号，总体形势好像和去年11月9日辉瑞宣布疫苗问世后大家的预期不太一样，即便是欧洲这样的经济体，和美国相比疫苗接种进展慢了很多，这个可以引发很多关于国际形势的思考，此处不过多展开。第二个信号，美国和英国作为可能最先摆脱疫情约束的国家，未来经济发展很有代表性。因此，我们可以从美国经济未来一些变化评估整个海外经济疫后前景，包括怎么看美国对中国出口的影响以及美联储货币政策何时收紧。\n\n2. 如何理解美国地产销售降温\n疫情即将结束，美国地产降温。我们去年认为当下美国10年地产上升周期只走到了前半程，但2月份美国二手房（成屋）和一手房（新屋）销售数据掉得很快。为什么我们去年认为美国地产处于十年上升周期？从影响经济体的地产的三个因素，城镇化过程、信用环境和人口来看，前两个因素在美国当下都算中性的，第三个因素我们参考购房年龄段人口（20-49岁）而非人口总数，该指标增速在2016年触底且同比转正，可以持续上升至2026年，这是我们判断的重要依据。并且去年美国地产确实创下14年以来销量新高，金额历史新高。\n\n\n疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。反思一下，去年美国地产好的有点异常，斜率非常陡峭。疫情确实带来购房成本下移，但去年参与到美国房地产的主要是中产和高净值群体，疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。各位在上海或者北京的购房周期起码在半年到一年以上，需要有一个工作之余的时间才可以看房。疫情之下购房周期被大大缩短了，凭借线上VR看房，可能半个月到一个月就完成了购房周期，因此我们才看到了去年美国地产销售非常强劲。\n\n低库存和购房周期重新被拉长必然约束年内美国地产销售。现在的情况是疫情下美国二手房即便房价上涨，库存跌到了2个月去库存时间，即按照一月份销售数据，两个月二手房就卖光了。没有库存自然会约束销售。新屋好像不受影响，因为会有新开工支持新屋供给。但随着疫情影响减弱，购房周期回归到正常的水平，我们确实看到了新屋去库存周期在反弹但仍然处于下限。\n地产开工取代销售称为年内地产亮点。美国地产销售数据确实有所回落，但跟疫前相比也还不错。此外，现在低库存、房价上涨、地产景气度高情况下，美国地产开发商将积极开工。所以和去年相比今年美国地产甚至经济环境里最重要的亮点不是销售，而是地产开工。\n\n3. 群体免疫将改变美国经济结构，亦影响中国出口结构\n美国的需求对中国形成了很大出口的拉动，如何理解去年至今美国的需求？\n美国的经济结构在疫情之后发生了扭曲。疫情之前，以个人消费为例，主要消费对象是服务，占到了7成。但该部分恢复与中国完全不一样，中国自去年二季度开始服务开始慢慢爬升，而美国去年8月份到今年2月份服务消费同比增速没有上升，可能只有群体免疫之后才会有一个质变。\n美国疫情之后财政一直在向居民进行转移支付，收入不降反升，且服务消费受到约束，肯定会使美国个人消费倾向朝其他方向转移，比如说耐用品的消费。同时去年二季度开始美国地产消费比较强劲，会带来两个直接的需求，一是地产后周期的家具家电，二是社交距离下买了郊区的房子后对汽车需求上升。以上因素叠加，我们看到去年二季度之后美国个人耐用品消费同比增速异常高，达到两位数，过去几十年都很罕见，这个也对中国对美国To C端出口形成很大的拉动。\n今年二季度末到三季度初美国耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降，中国对美To C端出口或将放缓。今年二季度末到三季度初美国需求结构会有一个很大的变化，就是耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降。有三个原因：第一，如果财政对于美国的消费有影响的话，而第三轮的财政刺激一定是最后一轮，疫情都要结束了，你还有什么理由给大家发钱呢？第二，如果我们认为大概6-7月份，或者三季度初美国实现群体免疫，压抑了一年的服务类消费需求会有一个报复性脉冲并对耐用品消费需求形成挤出。第三，美国地产今年注定了销售会不像去年那么景气，可能也会抑制地产后周期以及汽车的消费需求。\n\n美国地产开工和资本开支是亮点，对中国To B端出口形成拉动。如果美国在耐用品或者整个商品消费需求是下降的，那自然对中国To C端出口拉动没有像去年那么友好，甚至有可能是放缓的。幸运的是美国经济仍有亮点，一是地产开工非常积极，2月份有寒潮数据不具代表性，3月份应该还可以；二是美国M1很高，企业和老百姓手上都非常有钱，去年压制了一年的资本开支诉求有望在群体免疫后迸发。地产开工加上资本开支意味着美国To B端需求非常强劲，在二季度末至三季度初对中国的出口结构会有影响：To C端下滑但To B端改善。\n（二）美联储或于Q3收紧货币\n1. 美联储或于Q3削减QE\n经济好似乎是好事情，为何又是近忧呢？因为经济好会给货币政策收紧一个理由。美国无论是居民还是企业手里都有钱，并且是自有资金，消费和投资对于无风险利率上升并不敏感。因此对于美联储来讲，当她需要收紧货币政策时也会毫不犹豫。三季度我们认为美联储大概率削减QE，有两个原因。\n第一，过去几十年10年期美债收益率和美国政府杠杆率长期负相关，这是因为美国可以财政赤字化，美国每一次QE无非是帮财政压一压国债的发行成本，如果第三轮财政刺激是最后一轮，而基建在加税情况下财政收支平衡，我们未来看不到美国赤字率再大幅上升了。货币政策可以不那么激进。\n第二，美联储前主席耶伦在2月7日和3月7日两次提及如果第三轮财政刺激落地，2022年可以看到美国实现充分就业。其讲话包含货币政策含义，意味着美国在明年下半年很可能会引导加息预期了。我们可以倒推，金融危机之后，加息之前需要先结束QE，结束QE之前要先削减QE。14年用了10个月时间削减，倒推起来今年三季度或开始削减QE。\n\n2. 明年中10Y美债或触及2.25%\n我们可以用利差倒推明年10年期美债可能到什么样的高点。做债的朋友一定知道，利率债有牛陡、熊陡、熊平和牛平这样的利差交易策略。美国非常规律，无论经济衰退和复苏原因是什么，10年期和2年期美债利差始终规律运行，从倒挂到2.5%以上，再到倒挂再到2.5%以上。从倒挂到利差峰值一定经历了一个牛陡再到熊陡，随后进入熊平。熊平也就是在引导加息预期或者加息周期中。结合耶伦的讲话，明年下半年之前，我们很有可能看到10年期和2年期利差峰值出现。\n由此可见，即便保守来看明年二三季度10年期与2年期美债收益率差值起码也会到2%以上。目前美国基准利率上限是0.25%，因此明年中10年期美债收益率会在2.25%略高一点的位置。也许那个阶段就有很多资金配置了，比如说1月份收益率升破1%以后中国和日本这种本来持有美债的大户又增配了美债，去年利率很低的时候一直再减持。总体来看，10年期美债收益率的上行趋势应该还没有结束，意味着好像美股后面还是有风险的。\n\n3. Q3美股调整风险较大\n从定性、定量和日历效应三个因素看，美股4、5月份还有上涨空间，6-9月份下行概率和幅度会很大。\n第一，定性角度看。首先，去年以来每次美国宽财政的时候市场表现非常积极，甚至有散户开始叱诧风云，和美国人有时间、又有财政转移支付发的钱相关。第三轮财政刺激落地之后，理论上还会有一定的散户入场，市场参与度提高，风险偏好也会提高。此外，在第三轮财政刺激落地之后有一些涉及病毒检测和疫苗采购的部分开支，意味着美国会更接近群体免疫，经济向好预期也会有所帮助。最后，宽财政的时候美国政府很难会紧货币，短期2-3个月美国货币政策不会收紧，理论上4、5月份美国在定性上来看是可以上涨的。\n第二，从日历效应看。美股日历效应非常有规律，一般11、12、4、5月表现的不错，12个月中最差的就是6-9月份。\n第三，定量角度看。我们有一个四因子模型。简单说一下，你会发现美股不仅受美国经济影响，也会受海外经济影响，因为美国跨国公司很多，整个企业在境外的盈利占比达到三成，美国经济好不足以支持股市表现，因此美国经济和海外经济是我们考虑的第一个和第二个因素。第三个因素是美股结构，它和美国经济结构的差异，但这是一个慢变量就先不考虑了。第四个因素是无风险利率，第五个是风险溢价。剔除美股结构后，我们得到美股四因子模型，将四个因素建模我们回顾发现对美股拟合还可以。拟合结果和实际值的比较显示美股还没有超涨的信号，并且我们的结果显示4、5月份还会涨一涨。\n\n6月份往后看，美股调整压力非常大。从日历效应和四因子模型来看是如此，从定性角度来讲，6、7月份如果美国可以实现群体免疫，从图1可以看出全球群体免疫是错位的，和疫情问世时的预期是不一样的，群体免疫的时候需求的一些瑕疵会曝露出来，即此前的预期过于乐观了。再加上只要三季度美联储会去削减QE，10年期美债收益率在年内到2%，且大概率由实际利率驱动，这个时候美股下跌压力会比较大。\n拜登上任初期或寻求释放美股风险。进一步看，美股历年涨多跌少，但是下跌非常有规律，集中在每一个总统上任前两年。有一定有经济因素，因为上任前两年政策红利还没有释放出来，且经济刚经历衰退。但不否认有其他因素，美股是总统的成绩单，总统希望执政的中期有一个很漂亮的成绩单。美股风险什么时候释放呢？可能上任初期释放会比较好。\n\n加税+基建组合拳是金融危机后美股牛市逻辑的终结者。最近美国一直在提要加税和基建。其实这个财年根本没有机会落地了，但为什么一直要释放这样的信号？加税叠加基建，相当于是金融危机后美国牛市逻辑的终结者，因为金融危机后美国牛市无非是科技牛，赖以生存的宏观环境就是低通胀、低利率、再加上部分的美股回购。加税削弱EPS和美股回购逻辑，基建一定程度上配合美国的地产和其他一些因素，可能对于通胀预期有一些提振。本来只做基建的话，大家会认为后面美国财政赤字还会很高，货币政策还会宽松。但是配合加税下财政平衡，超宽松的货币政策可能不复存在了。整体来看，今年美股调整压力是比较大的。\n第二部分：海外市场的远虑\n（一）两因素看美债长期走势\n1. 10Y美债的长期定价因素\n以上是我们的近忧，我们看一下远虑，不是担忧而是我们的一些思考。\n美债收益率受经济因素与非经济因素影响。一方面大家知道美债他是一个特殊的利率债，如果讲中国的国债主要还是由中国的经济基本面影响的话，美债具有一些配置价值和避险价值，有非经济因素影响。经济因素方面，长期趋势一定和人口有关的，大体来看10年期美债走势和美国的劳动力人口增速是同趋势的。非经济因素是财政赤字货币化，美国政府杠杆率上行下无风险利率一定要下行，否则美国会面临债务问题。\n社会结构及财政政策驱动非经济变量。是不是美国政府杠杆率下行阶段，无风险利率一定要上行呢？虽然没有因果关系，但是可以想一个问题，美国过去几十年无风险利率和政府杠杆率为什么有的时候上行、有的时候下行。这和美国社会结构有很大关系。美国是两党轮流执政，但不是每次轮流执证就意味着两党的影响力在交替。包括2020年美国大选这一次，一战之后只有三次两党执政影响力的交替。民主党代表大政府，如果大家比较推崇民主党，即社会在呼吁公平；共和党代表小政府，是追求效率的，推崇共和党意味着整个社会是推崇效率的。\n在大萧条的时候，1933年罗斯福当选是一个节点，当时美国社会结构扭曲，中产占比很低，社会开始推崇民主党。如何实现公平呢？可以把他比作一个龟兔赛跑的游戏，缩小贫富差距应该在游戏规则里面去阻止兔子跑得快，一是加税，通过二次分配方式“劫富济贫”；二是适度上调无风险利率，低无风险利率有利于财富净值上涨，但对于低收入人群难有正贡献。\n到了80年代，美国社会结构优化得很好了，经历了70年代两次石油危机持续高失业率之后社会开始排斥民主党的公平性政策，反而对于共和党的效率性政策比较推崇。所以80年以里根当选为标志性事件，美国进入到了共和党影响力上升追求效率的阶段。我们看到减税期，政府杠杆率上升，无风险利率下降。\n\n2. 未来10年10年期美债收益率或走高\n特朗普败选和拜登当选就是一战之后的第三次两党影响力的交替。所以未来美国政府杠杆率会下降，无风险利率可以上升。美国因为是一个移民国家，二战之后还有婴儿潮和回声婴儿潮，未来10-20年劳动力人口增速会反弹一点。所以10年期美债中枢在未来10年可能是小幅上移的。\n\n（二）美股风格或迎长期切换\n1. 科技退潮；核心消费医药跑赢\n美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产。这样的变化会对美股逻辑有很大的影响。在过去几十年，科技股一直很受益，是因为美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产的。80年代后美股两次牛市都是科技牛，即长久期资产的牛市，因为对于科技股我们是用未来十年二十年之后的一些逻辑反推现在可能它可以达到什么样的股价和估值。\n科技牛即将退潮。如果我们认为10年期美债收益率下行趋势结束了，无论其上行幅度是怎样的，且现在美股估值（标普500指数10年席勒周期调整市盈率）又这么高，理论上美股风格在未来10年可能有变化。科技牛就要退潮。\n\n哪些板块会表现不错呢？第一，要缩小贫富差距，“接地气”资产会比较好，包括核心消费、医药和教育等等。第二，和基建以及地产相关的也应该有机会。\n2. 未来10年美国股房比回落\n美国股市与房市存在大约10年的轮动周期，未来10年股房比或回落。此外，我们还会发现美国的市场还有一个很有意思的大类资产之间的轮动，即美股和房地产之间的轮动。第一，虽然我们认为后面的10年是科技股退潮，还是会有表现不错的美国资产。但现在科技及金融行业确实是在美股包括标普500指数当中占比权重比较高，这意味着如果科技股退潮，指数表现是相对有点疲弱的。第二，我们反复强调现在位于美国地产十年上升周期的前半程。第三，美国现在的股房比到了纳斯达克泡沫破灭的高点，意味着可能未来的10年是股房比的下降周期。\n\n股房比回落利好非美市场。这一变化背后对应配置逻辑是：全球来讲美股算一类核心资产，在美国股房比上升阶段，相当于全球资金在抱团美股，对于其他的市场来讲，可能机会相对就不那么大，这个时候美股的表现应该比非美的市场好一些。反过来，股房比的下降大概率说明资金抱团在解散。全球的资金不会大量全部投进房地产，因为不具备流动性。资金抱团性解散的时候，资金会去美国海外找机会，非美的市场会有表现力。\n非美市场的机会在A股。非美市场中还有一条规律，无论是当年的日本、韩国以及中国香港地区，都证明了同一个规律，只要一个国家或者一个地区跨过了中等收入国家陷阱成为一个高收入国家（地区）的时候，随后的10年甚至日本当时是20年，股市可以跑赢美国，领跑全球。原因一方面是外资会从低配到标配甚至超配，一方面是居民资产搬家。\n未来10年如果股市的机会在非美，那么非美的机会在A股。我们知道大概2023-2024年中国是可以跨过中等收入国家陷阱的。其实中国经济方差很大，大湾区人均GDP已经跨过去了，因此此前若干年我们看到一些海外指数已经在配置一些A股。我相信未来10年A股是有长期机会。短期大家可能会纠结于A股市场的风险，我相信长期是不错的。希望大家可以做时间的朋友，预祝大家成为市场的赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":341963486,"gmtCreate":1617771705845,"gmtModify":1704702926227,"author":{"id":"3541569585216509","authorId":"3541569585216509","name":"农村小伙2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541569585216509","idStr":"3541569585216509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**","listText":"**","text":"**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341963486","repostId":"1128707770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128707770","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617765006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128707770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-07 11:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Next 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128707770","media":"格隆汇","summary":"海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>Recent worries in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will cut QE and rate hike; Foresight does not refer to our worries about the long-term situation, but more about our thinking about the prospect of 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part 1: Recent worries in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Looking at overseas post-epidemic prospects from changes in the U.S. economy</b></p><p><b>1. Dislocation of post-epidemic recovery in overseas countries</b></p><p>Let's talk about recent worries first. Recently, the overseas economy seems to be okay, but first look at the picture below. As of last weekend (as of March 27), the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination. Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from everyone's expectations after Pfizer announced the availability of the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than that of the United States. This can trigger a lot of thinking about the international situation, so I won't expand on it here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries that may get rid of the constraints of the epidemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-epidemic outlook of the entire overseas economy from some future changes in the U.S. economy, including how to view the impact of the U.S. on China's exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of U.S. real estate sales</b></p><p><b>The epidemic is coming to an end, and U.S. real estate is cooling down.</b>Last year, we thought that the current 10-year real estate rising cycle in the United States had only reached the first half, but in February, the sales data of second-hand houses (existing houses) and first-hand houses (new houses) in the United States dropped rapidly. Why did we think U.S. real estate was in a decade-up cycle last year? From the perspective of the three factors that affect the real estate of the economy, urbanization process, credit environment and population, the first two factors are neutral in the United States at present. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the age group of buying houses (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and can continue to rise to 2026, which is an important basis for our judgment. And last year, U.S. real estate did hit a record high in sales volume in 14 years, with a record high amount.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle.</b>To reflect on it, last year's real estate in the United States was a bit unusual, and the slope was very steep. The epidemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying houses, but last year, the main participants in U.S. real estate were middle-class and high-net-worth groups. The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. Your house purchase cycle in Shanghai or Beijing is at least half a year to more than one year, and you need to have a spare time before you can look at the house. Under the epidemic, the house purchase cycle has been greatly shortened. With online VR viewing, the house purchase cycle may be completed in half a month to a month. Therefore, we saw very strong real estate sales in the United States last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and the renewed lengthening of the home purchase cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales during the year.</b>The current situation is that even if the price of second-hand houses in the United States rises under the epidemic, the inventory has dropped to two months' destocking time. That is, according to the sales data in January, the second-hand houses will be sold out in two months. The absence of inventory naturally constrains sales. It seems that new housing will not be affected, because there will be new starts to support the supply of new housing. However, as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal levels, we do see that the new home destocking cycle is rebounding but still at the lower limit.</p><p><b>The start of real estate construction replaces sales, which is called the highlight of real estate during the year.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is not bad compared with before the epidemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising house prices and high real estate prosperity, American real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared with last year, the most important bright spot in American real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the economic structure of the United States and also affect China's export structure</b></p><p>The demand of the United States has greatly boosted China's exports. How to understand the demand of the United States since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted after the epidemic.</b>Before the epidemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumption object was service, accounting for 70%. However, this part of the recovery is completely different from that of China. China's services have slowly climbed since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States has not increased from August last year to February this year. There may only be a qualitative change after herd immunity..</p><p>After the epidemic in the United States, the finance has been making transfer payments to residents. Income has risen instead of falling, and service consumption has been restricted, which will definitely shift personal consumption tendencies in the United States to other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. At the same time, real estate consumption in the United States has been relatively strong since the second quarter of last year, which will bring two direct demands. One is furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and the other is the increase in demand for cars after buying a house in the suburbs under social distance. With the superposition of the above factors, we saw that the year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year was unusually high, reaching double digits, which was rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's To C-end exports to the United States..</p><p><b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States will drop sharply, and China's To C-end exports to the United States may slow down.</b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, there will be a big change in the demand structure of the United States, that is, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods will drop significantly. There are three reasons: First, if finance has an impact on consumption in the United States, and the third round of fiscal stimulus must be the last round, the epidemic is coming to an end, what reason do you have to send money to everyone? Second, if we think that the United States achieves herd immunity around June-July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and squeeze out the durable goods consumption demand. Third, U.S. real estate sales this year are destined to be less prosperous than last year, which may also inhibit the post-real estate cycle and consumer demand for automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. real estate starts and capital expenditures are bright spots, which have boosted China's To B-end exports.</b>If the consumption demand of durable goods or entire commodities in the United States declines, it will naturally not be as friendly to China's To C-end exports as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, there are still bright spots in the U.S. economy. First, real estate construction is very active. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be OK in March; Second, the M1 in the United States is very high, and companies and ordinary people are very rich. The capital expenditure demands that were suppressed for a year last year are expected to burst out after herd immunity. The start of real estate construction plus capital expenditure means that the demand on the To B side in the United States is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter: the To C side declines but the To B side improves.</p><p><b>(2) The Federal Reserve may tighten currency in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed may cut QE in Q3</b></p><p>A good economy seems to be a good thing, so why is it a near worry? Because a good economy will give a reason to tighten monetary policy. Both residents and enterprises in the United States have money in their hands, and they are their own funds. Consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, for the Fed, when she needs to tighten monetary policy, she will not hesitate. In the third quarter, we believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut QE for two reasons.</p><p>First, in the past few decades, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has been negatively correlated with the leverage ratio of the U.S. government for a long time. This is because the U.S. can turn a fiscal deficit. Every QE in the U.S. is nothing more than helping the finance to suppress the issuance cost of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure of infrastructure is balanced with tax increases, we will not see the U.S. deficit ratio rising significantly in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States can achieve full employment in 2022. His speech contains monetary policy implications, which means that the United States is likely to guide rate hike's expectations in the second half of next year. We can push it backwards. After the financial crisis, rate hike needs to end QE before, and cut QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to cut QE in 2014, and backwards, QE may begin to be cut in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. U.S. bonds may hit 2.25% in mid-10Y next year</b></p><p>We can use the interest rate spread to backward what high point the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond may reach next year. Friends who make debts must know that interest rate bonds have carry trading strategies such as Niudou, Xiongdou, Xiongping and Niuping. The United States is very regular. No matter what the reason for the economic recession and recovery is, the spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds always runs regularly, from inverted to above 2.5%, then inverted to above 2.5%. From the inversion to the peak of the spread, it must have gone through a bull steep, then to a bear steep, and then into a bear flat. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Combined with Yellen's speech, we are likely to see the peak spread between 10-year and 2-year interest rates before the second half of next year.</p><p>It can be seen that even conservatively, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in the second and third quarters of next year will be at least more than 2%. The current upper limit of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield will be slightly higher than 2.25% in the middle of next year. Perhaps there was a lot of capital allocation at that stage. For example, after the yield rose above 1% in January, China and Japan, which originally held U.S. debt, increased their allocation of U.S. debt. Last year, when the interest rate was very low, they kept reducing their holdings. Overall, the upward trend of 10-year U.S. bond yields should not be over yet, which means that there seems to be still risks behind U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Q3 U.S. stock adjustment risk is relatively high</b></p><p>From the perspective of qualitative, quantitative and calendar effects, there is still room for U.S. stocks to rise in April and May, and the probability and magnitude of downward trend from June to September will be very large.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative point of view.</b>First of all, since last year, every time the United States has easing its fiscal policy, the market has performed very positively, and even some retail investors have begun to shout the situation, which is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfer payments. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, market participation will increase, and risk appetite will also increase. In addition, after the third round of fiscal stimulus, there will be some expenditures involving virus testing and vaccine procurement, which means that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and expectations for economic improvement will also help. Finally, it is difficult for the U.S. government to tighten the currency when the fiscal policy is easing. The U.S. monetary policy will not tighten in the short term for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the U.S. can rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of U.S. stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April, and May perform well, and the worst of the 12 months is June-September.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you will find that U.S. stocks are not only affected by the U.S. economy, but also by overseas economies. Because there are many multinational companies in the United States, the overseas profits of the entire enterprise account for 30%. The U.S. economy is not good enough to support the performance of the stock market. Therefore, the U.S. economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the U.S. stock market, which is different from the structure of the U.S. economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the U.S. stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the U.S. stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that the fitting to the U.S. stock market was okay. The comparison between the fitting results and the actual values shows that there is no signal of overrising U.S. stocks, and our results show that they will rise again in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking back in June, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks is very high.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, it can be seen from Figure 1 that the global herd immunity is misaligned, which is different from what was expected when the epidemic came out. In the same way, some flaws in demand for herd immunity will be exposed, that is, previous expectations are too optimistic. In addition, as long as the Federal Reserve will cut QE in the third quarter, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2% within the year, and there is a high probability that it will be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on U.S. stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in U.S. stocks in the early days of his term of office.</b>Looking further, U.S. stocks have risen more and fallen less over the years, but the decline is very regular, concentrated in the two years before each president takes office. There must be economic factors, because the policy dividend has not been released two years before taking office, and the economy has just experienced a recession. But it is not denied that there are other factors. U.S. stocks are the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a beautiful report card in the middle of his administration. When will the risk of US stocks be released? Maybe it would be better to release it early in office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increase + infrastructure is the terminator of the logic of the bull market in US stocks after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been proposing tax increases and infrastructure construction. In fact, there is no chance to land this fiscal year, but why do you keep releasing such signals? Tax increases and infrastructure construction are equivalent to the terminator of the logic of the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis, because the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis is nothing more than a technology bull, and the macro environment on which it depends is low inflation, low interest rates, and some U.S. stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken the logic of EPS and U.S. stock repurchases, and infrastructure is matched to U.S. real estate and other factors to a certain extent, which may have some boost to inflation expectations. Originally, if we only did infrastructure construction, everyone would think that the U.S. fiscal deficit would be very high and monetary policy would be loose. However, with the fiscal balance under the tax increase, the ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks this year is relatively high.</p><p><b>Part 2: Foresight in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Two factors look at the long-term trend of U.S. debt</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10Y U.S. bonds</b></p><p>The above are our near-term worries. Let's take a look at the long-term worries, not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>U.S. bond yields are affected by economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, we all know that U.S. debt is a special interest rate bond. If China's Treasury Bond is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals, U.S. debt has some allocation value and safe-haven value, and is influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend must be related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year U.S. bonds and the growth rate of the U.S. labor force are on the same trend. The non-economic factor is the monetization of fiscal deficit. When the leverage ratio of the US government goes up, the risk-free interest rate must go down, otherwise the United States will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it the downward stage of the leverage ratio of the US government, and the risk-free interest rate must go up? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about a question, why the risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio in the United States sometimes went up and sometimes went down in the past few decades. This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. In the United States, the two parties take turns in power, but not every time they take turns to obtain certificates, it means that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 U.S. election, there were only three alternations of the ruling influence of the two parties after World War I. The Democratic Party represents the big government. If everyone praises the Democratic Party more, that is, the society is calling for fairness; The Republican Party represents a small government and pursues efficiency. Advocating the Republican Party means that the whole society advocates efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a node. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the proportion of the middle class was very low, and the society began to admire the Democratic Party. How to achieve fairness? He can be compared to a game of tortoise and hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, we should prevent the rabbit from running fast in the rules of the game. First, increase taxes and \"rob the rich and help the poor\" through secondary distribution; The second is to moderately raise the risk-free interest rate. A low risk-free interest rate is conducive to the increase of net wealth, but it is difficult to make a positive contribution to low-income people.</p><p>In the 1980s, the social structure of the United States was well optimized. After the two oil crises in the 1970s and the persistent high unemployment rate, the society began to reject the fair policy of the Democratic Party, but instead praised the efficiency policy of the Republican Party. Therefore, in 1980, with Reagan's election as a landmark event, the United States has entered a stage of rising Republican influence and pursuing efficiency. We see tax cut periods, government leverage increases and risk-free rates fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year U.S. bond yields may rise in the next 10 years</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election are the third alternation of bipartisan influence since World War I. Therefore, in the future, the leverage ratio of the US government will decrease, and the risk-free interest rate can rise. Because the United States is an immigrant country, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of labor force will rebound a little in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the 10-year U.S. bond center may move up slightly in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) The style of US stocks may welcome a long-term switch</b></p><p><b>1. The ebb of science and technology; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>The downward shift in U.S. bond yields is better for long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a great impact on the logic of US stocks. In the past few decades, technology stocks have benefited greatly because the downward shift in U.S. bond yields is more favorable for long-term assets. The two bull markets in U.S. stocks after the 1980s were both technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets, because for technology stocks, we use some logic in the next ten or twenty years to deduce what kind of stock price and valuation it may achieve now.</p><p><b>The tech bull is about to ebb.</b>If we think that the downward trend in the 10-year U.S. bond yield is over, no matter what its upward trend is, and now the valuation of U.S. stocks (the S&P 500's 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E) is so high, theoretically the style of U.S. stocks may change in the next 10 years. The technology bull is about to ebb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"grounded\" assets will be better, including core consumption, medicine and education. Second, there should also be opportunities related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The U.S. stock-to-housing ratio will fall in the next 10 years</b></p><p><b>There is a rotation cycle of about 10 years between the U.S. stock market and the housing market, and the ratio of stocks to houses may fall back in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the U.S. market, that is, the rotation between U.S. stocks and real estate. First, although we think that the next 10 years will be the ebb of technology stocks, there will still be U.S. assets that perform well. But now the technology and financial industries do account for a relatively high weight in U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 index, which means that if technology stocks ebb, the index performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are now in the first half of the ten-year upward cycle of U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the high point of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle of stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is good for the non-US market.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally speaking, U.S. stocks are considered a type of core asset. In the rising stage of U.S. stock-to-real estate ratio, it is equivalent to global funds holding U.S. stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may be relatively small. At this time, the performance of U.S. stocks should be better than that of non-U.S. markets. On the other hand, the decline in the stock-to-property ratio is likely to indicate that the capital group is dissolving. Global funds will not be invested in real estate in large quantities because there is no liquidity. When funds are dissolved in groups, funds will go to the United States to look for opportunities overseas, and non-American markets will be expressive.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another rule in the non-American market. No matter Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, China, the same rule has been proved. As long as a country or region crosses the trap of middle-income countries and becomes a high-income country (region), the stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the next 10 years or even Japan's 20 years at that time. On the one hand, the reason is that foreign capital will change from low-allocation to standard or even over-allocation, and on the other hand, residents' assets will move.</p><p>In the next 10 years, if the opportunity for the stock market is in non-American, then the opportunity for non-American will be in A-shares. We know that China can cross the middle-income country trap probably from 2023 to 2024. In fact, China's economic variance is very large, and the per capita GDP of Greater Bay Area has already crossed it. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen that some overseas indexes have already allocated some A-shares. I believe that A-shares will have long-term opportunities in the next 10 years. In the short term, everyone may struggle with the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is good in the long term. I hope everyone can be friends of time, and I wish everyone a winner in the market.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext 10 years: Opportunities for the stock market are in non-US, and opportunities for non-US are in A-shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>Recent worries in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will cut QE and rate hike; Foresight does not refer to our worries about the long-term situation, but more about our thinking about the prospect of 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part 1: Recent worries in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Looking at overseas post-epidemic prospects from changes in the U.S. economy</b></p><p><b>1. Dislocation of post-epidemic recovery in overseas countries</b></p><p>Let's talk about recent worries first. Recently, the overseas economy seems to be okay, but first look at the picture below. As of last weekend (as of March 27), the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination. Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from everyone's expectations after Pfizer announced the availability of the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than that of the United States. This can trigger a lot of thinking about the international situation, so I won't expand on it here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries that may get rid of the constraints of the epidemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-epidemic outlook of the entire overseas economy from some future changes in the U.S. economy, including how to view the impact of the U.S. on China's exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of U.S. real estate sales</b></p><p><b>The epidemic is coming to an end, and U.S. real estate is cooling down.</b>Last year, we thought that the current 10-year real estate rising cycle in the United States had only reached the first half, but in February, the sales data of second-hand houses (existing houses) and first-hand houses (new houses) in the United States dropped rapidly. Why did we think U.S. real estate was in a decade-up cycle last year? From the perspective of the three factors that affect the real estate of the economy, urbanization process, credit environment and population, the first two factors are neutral in the United States at present. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the age group of buying houses (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and can continue to rise to 2026, which is an important basis for our judgment. And last year, U.S. real estate did hit a record high in sales volume in 14 years, with a record high amount.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle.</b>To reflect on it, last year's real estate in the United States was a bit unusual, and the slope was very steep. The epidemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying houses, but last year, the main participants in U.S. real estate were middle-class and high-net-worth groups. The post-epidemic real estate sales boom in the United States stems from the epidemic triggering the demand for improved home purchases in the United States and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. Your house purchase cycle in Shanghai or Beijing is at least half a year to more than one year, and you need to have a spare time before you can look at the house. Under the epidemic, the house purchase cycle has been greatly shortened. With online VR viewing, the house purchase cycle may be completed in half a month to a month. Therefore, we saw very strong real estate sales in the United States last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and the renewed lengthening of the home purchase cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales during the year.</b>The current situation is that even if the price of second-hand houses in the United States rises under the epidemic, the inventory has dropped to two months' destocking time. That is, according to the sales data in January, the second-hand houses will be sold out in two months. The absence of inventory naturally constrains sales. It seems that new housing will not be affected, because there will be new starts to support the supply of new housing. However, as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal levels, we do see that the new home destocking cycle is rebounding but still at the lower limit.</p><p><b>The start of real estate construction replaces sales, which is called the highlight of real estate during the year.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is not bad compared with before the epidemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising house prices and high real estate prosperity, American real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared with last year, the most important bright spot in American real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the economic structure of the United States and also affect China's export structure</b></p><p>The demand of the United States has greatly boosted China's exports. How to understand the demand of the United States since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted after the epidemic.</b>Before the epidemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumption object was service, accounting for 70%. However, this part of the recovery is completely different from that of China. China's services have slowly climbed since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States has not increased from August last year to February this year. There may only be a qualitative change after herd immunity..</p><p>After the epidemic in the United States, the finance has been making transfer payments to residents. Income has risen instead of falling, and service consumption has been restricted, which will definitely shift personal consumption tendencies in the United States to other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. At the same time, real estate consumption in the United States has been relatively strong since the second quarter of last year, which will bring two direct demands. One is furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and the other is the increase in demand for cars after buying a house in the suburbs under social distance. With the superposition of the above factors, we saw that the year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year was unusually high, reaching double digits, which was rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's To C-end exports to the United States..</p><p><b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States will drop sharply, and China's To C-end exports to the United States may slow down.</b>From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, there will be a big change in the demand structure of the United States, that is, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods will drop significantly. There are three reasons: First, if finance has an impact on consumption in the United States, and the third round of fiscal stimulus must be the last round, the epidemic is coming to an end, what reason do you have to send money to everyone? Second, if we think that the United States achieves herd immunity around June-July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and squeeze out the durable goods consumption demand. Third, U.S. real estate sales this year are destined to be less prosperous than last year, which may also inhibit the post-real estate cycle and consumer demand for automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. real estate starts and capital expenditures are bright spots, which have boosted China's To B-end exports.</b>If the consumption demand of durable goods or entire commodities in the United States declines, it will naturally not be as friendly to China's To C-end exports as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, there are still bright spots in the U.S. economy. First, real estate construction is very active. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be OK in March; Second, the M1 in the United States is very high, and companies and ordinary people are very rich. The capital expenditure demands that were suppressed for a year last year are expected to burst out after herd immunity. The start of real estate construction plus capital expenditure means that the demand on the To B side in the United States is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter: the To C side declines but the To B side improves.</p><p><b>(2) The Federal Reserve may tighten currency in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed may cut QE in Q3</b></p><p>A good economy seems to be a good thing, so why is it a near worry? Because a good economy will give a reason to tighten monetary policy. Both residents and enterprises in the United States have money in their hands, and they are their own funds. Consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, for the Fed, when she needs to tighten monetary policy, she will not hesitate. In the third quarter, we believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut QE for two reasons.</p><p>First, in the past few decades, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has been negatively correlated with the leverage ratio of the U.S. government for a long time. This is because the U.S. can turn a fiscal deficit. Every QE in the U.S. is nothing more than helping the finance to suppress the issuance cost of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure of infrastructure is balanced with tax increases, we will not see the U.S. deficit ratio rising significantly in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States can achieve full employment in 2022. His speech contains monetary policy implications, which means that the United States is likely to guide rate hike's expectations in the second half of next year. We can push it backwards. After the financial crisis, rate hike needs to end QE before, and cut QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to cut QE in 2014, and backwards, QE may begin to be cut in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. U.S. bonds may hit 2.25% in mid-10Y next year</b></p><p>We can use the interest rate spread to backward what high point the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond may reach next year. Friends who make debts must know that interest rate bonds have carry trading strategies such as Niudou, Xiongdou, Xiongping and Niuping. The United States is very regular. No matter what the reason for the economic recession and recovery is, the spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds always runs regularly, from inverted to above 2.5%, then inverted to above 2.5%. From the inversion to the peak of the spread, it must have gone through a bull steep, then to a bear steep, and then into a bear flat. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Combined with Yellen's speech, we are likely to see the peak spread between 10-year and 2-year interest rates before the second half of next year.</p><p>It can be seen that even conservatively, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in the second and third quarters of next year will be at least more than 2%. The current upper limit of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield will be slightly higher than 2.25% in the middle of next year. Perhaps there was a lot of capital allocation at that stage. For example, after the yield rose above 1% in January, China and Japan, which originally held U.S. debt, increased their allocation of U.S. debt. Last year, when the interest rate was very low, they kept reducing their holdings. Overall, the upward trend of 10-year U.S. bond yields should not be over yet, which means that there seems to be still risks behind U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Q3 U.S. stock adjustment risk is relatively high</b></p><p>From the perspective of qualitative, quantitative and calendar effects, there is still room for U.S. stocks to rise in April and May, and the probability and magnitude of downward trend from June to September will be very large.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative point of view.</b>First of all, since last year, every time the United States has easing its fiscal policy, the market has performed very positively, and even some retail investors have begun to shout the situation, which is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfer payments. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, market participation will increase, and risk appetite will also increase. In addition, after the third round of fiscal stimulus, there will be some expenditures involving virus testing and vaccine procurement, which means that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and expectations for economic improvement will also help. Finally, it is difficult for the U.S. government to tighten the currency when the fiscal policy is easing. The U.S. monetary policy will not tighten in the short term for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the U.S. can rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of U.S. stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April, and May perform well, and the worst of the 12 months is June-September.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you will find that U.S. stocks are not only affected by the U.S. economy, but also by overseas economies. Because there are many multinational companies in the United States, the overseas profits of the entire enterprise account for 30%. The U.S. economy is not good enough to support the performance of the stock market. Therefore, the U.S. economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the U.S. stock market, which is different from the structure of the U.S. economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the U.S. stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the U.S. stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that the fitting to the U.S. stock market was okay. The comparison between the fitting results and the actual values shows that there is no signal of overrising U.S. stocks, and our results show that they will rise again in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking back in June, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks is very high.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, it can be seen from Figure 1 that the global herd immunity is misaligned, which is different from what was expected when the epidemic came out. In the same way, some flaws in demand for herd immunity will be exposed, that is, previous expectations are too optimistic. In addition, as long as the Federal Reserve will cut QE in the third quarter, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2% within the year, and there is a high probability that it will be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on U.S. stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in U.S. stocks in the early days of his term of office.</b>Looking further, U.S. stocks have risen more and fallen less over the years, but the decline is very regular, concentrated in the two years before each president takes office. There must be economic factors, because the policy dividend has not been released two years before taking office, and the economy has just experienced a recession. But it is not denied that there are other factors. U.S. stocks are the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a beautiful report card in the middle of his administration. When will the risk of US stocks be released? Maybe it would be better to release it early in office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increase + infrastructure is the terminator of the logic of the bull market in US stocks after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been proposing tax increases and infrastructure construction. In fact, there is no chance to land this fiscal year, but why do you keep releasing such signals? Tax increases and infrastructure construction are equivalent to the terminator of the logic of the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis, because the U.S. bull market after the financial crisis is nothing more than a technology bull, and the macro environment on which it depends is low inflation, low interest rates, and some U.S. stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken the logic of EPS and U.S. stock repurchases, and infrastructure is matched to U.S. real estate and other factors to a certain extent, which may have some boost to inflation expectations. Originally, if we only did infrastructure construction, everyone would think that the U.S. fiscal deficit would be very high and monetary policy would be loose. However, with the fiscal balance under the tax increase, the ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the adjustment pressure of U.S. stocks this year is relatively high.</p><p><b>Part 2: Foresight in overseas markets</b></p><p><b>(1) Two factors look at the long-term trend of U.S. debt</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10Y U.S. bonds</b></p><p>The above are our near-term worries. Let's take a look at the long-term worries, not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>U.S. bond yields are affected by economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, we all know that U.S. debt is a special interest rate bond. If China's Treasury Bond is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals, U.S. debt has some allocation value and safe-haven value, and is influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend must be related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year U.S. bonds and the growth rate of the U.S. labor force are on the same trend. The non-economic factor is the monetization of fiscal deficit. When the leverage ratio of the US government goes up, the risk-free interest rate must go down, otherwise the United States will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it the downward stage of the leverage ratio of the US government, and the risk-free interest rate must go up? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about a question, why the risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio in the United States sometimes went up and sometimes went down in the past few decades. This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. In the United States, the two parties take turns in power, but not every time they take turns to obtain certificates, it means that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 U.S. election, there were only three alternations of the ruling influence of the two parties after World War I. The Democratic Party represents the big government. If everyone praises the Democratic Party more, that is, the society is calling for fairness; The Republican Party represents a small government and pursues efficiency. Advocating the Republican Party means that the whole society advocates efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a node. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the proportion of the middle class was very low, and the society began to admire the Democratic Party. How to achieve fairness? He can be compared to a game of tortoise and hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, we should prevent the rabbit from running fast in the rules of the game. First, increase taxes and \"rob the rich and help the poor\" through secondary distribution; The second is to moderately raise the risk-free interest rate. A low risk-free interest rate is conducive to the increase of net wealth, but it is difficult to make a positive contribution to low-income people.</p><p>In the 1980s, the social structure of the United States was well optimized. After the two oil crises in the 1970s and the persistent high unemployment rate, the society began to reject the fair policy of the Democratic Party, but instead praised the efficiency policy of the Republican Party. Therefore, in 1980, with Reagan's election as a landmark event, the United States has entered a stage of rising Republican influence and pursuing efficiency. We see tax cut periods, government leverage increases and risk-free rates fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year U.S. bond yields may rise in the next 10 years</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election are the third alternation of bipartisan influence since World War I. Therefore, in the future, the leverage ratio of the US government will decrease, and the risk-free interest rate can rise. Because the United States is an immigrant country, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of labor force will rebound a little in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the 10-year U.S. bond center may move up slightly in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) The style of US stocks may welcome a long-term switch</b></p><p><b>1. The ebb of science and technology; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>The downward shift in U.S. bond yields is better for long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a great impact on the logic of US stocks. In the past few decades, technology stocks have benefited greatly because the downward shift in U.S. bond yields is more favorable for long-term assets. The two bull markets in U.S. stocks after the 1980s were both technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets, because for technology stocks, we use some logic in the next ten or twenty years to deduce what kind of stock price and valuation it may achieve now.</p><p><b>The tech bull is about to ebb.</b>If we think that the downward trend in the 10-year U.S. bond yield is over, no matter what its upward trend is, and now the valuation of U.S. stocks (the S&P 500's 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E) is so high, theoretically the style of U.S. stocks may change in the next 10 years. The technology bull is about to ebb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"grounded\" assets will be better, including core consumption, medicine and education. Second, there should also be opportunities related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The U.S. stock-to-housing ratio will fall in the next 10 years</b></p><p><b>There is a rotation cycle of about 10 years between the U.S. stock market and the housing market, and the ratio of stocks to houses may fall back in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the U.S. market, that is, the rotation between U.S. stocks and real estate. First, although we think that the next 10 years will be the ebb of technology stocks, there will still be U.S. assets that perform well. But now the technology and financial industries do account for a relatively high weight in U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 index, which means that if technology stocks ebb, the index performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are now in the first half of the ten-year upward cycle of U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the high point of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle of stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is good for the non-US market.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally speaking, U.S. stocks are considered a type of core asset. In the rising stage of U.S. stock-to-real estate ratio, it is equivalent to global funds holding U.S. stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may be relatively small. At this time, the performance of U.S. stocks should be better than that of non-U.S. markets. On the other hand, the decline in the stock-to-property ratio is likely to indicate that the capital group is dissolving. Global funds will not be invested in real estate in large quantities because there is no liquidity. When funds are dissolved in groups, funds will go to the United States to look for opportunities overseas, and non-American markets will be expressive.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another rule in the non-American market. No matter Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, China, the same rule has been proved. As long as a country or region crosses the trap of middle-income countries and becomes a high-income country (region), the stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the next 10 years or even Japan's 20 years at that time. On the one hand, the reason is that foreign capital will change from low-allocation to standard or even over-allocation, and on the other hand, residents' assets will move.</p><p>In the next 10 years, if the opportunity for the stock market is in non-American, then the opportunity for non-American will be in A-shares. We know that China can cross the middle-income country trap probably from 2023 to 2024. In fact, China's economic variance is very large, and the per capita GDP of Greater Bay Area has already crossed it. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen that some overseas indexes have already allocated some A-shares. I believe that A-shares will have long-term opportunities in the next 10 years. In the short term, everyone may struggle with the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is good in the long term. I hope everyone can be friends of time, and I wish everyone a winner in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1128707770","content_text":"作者：张静静\n海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息；远虑并不是指我们对于长期形势的担忧、更多是对于5-10年前景的思考，包括海外资产风格的变化，还有美股风格的变化。\n第一部分：海外市场的近忧\n（一）由美国经济变化看海外疫后前景\n1. 海外各国疫后恢复错位\n先说近忧，最近海外经济看起来还可以，但是先看下面这张图，截止到上周末（截至3月27日）主要海外经济体完成疫苗接种的人口占比。释放了两个信号，第一个信号，总体形势好像和去年11月9日辉瑞宣布疫苗问世后大家的预期不太一样，即便是欧洲这样的经济体，和美国相比疫苗接种进展慢了很多，这个可以引发很多关于国际形势的思考，此处不过多展开。第二个信号，美国和英国作为可能最先摆脱疫情约束的国家，未来经济发展很有代表性。因此，我们可以从美国经济未来一些变化评估整个海外经济疫后前景，包括怎么看美国对中国出口的影响以及美联储货币政策何时收紧。\n\n2. 如何理解美国地产销售降温\n疫情即将结束，美国地产降温。我们去年认为当下美国10年地产上升周期只走到了前半程，但2月份美国二手房（成屋）和一手房（新屋）销售数据掉得很快。为什么我们去年认为美国地产处于十年上升周期？从影响经济体的地产的三个因素，城镇化过程、信用环境和人口来看，前两个因素在美国当下都算中性的，第三个因素我们参考购房年龄段人口（20-49岁）而非人口总数，该指标增速在2016年触底且同比转正，可以持续上升至2026年，这是我们判断的重要依据。并且去年美国地产确实创下14年以来销量新高，金额历史新高。\n\n\n疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。反思一下，去年美国地产好的有点异常，斜率非常陡峭。疫情确实带来购房成本下移，但去年参与到美国房地产的主要是中产和高净值群体，疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。各位在上海或者北京的购房周期起码在半年到一年以上，需要有一个工作之余的时间才可以看房。疫情之下购房周期被大大缩短了，凭借线上VR看房，可能半个月到一个月就完成了购房周期，因此我们才看到了去年美国地产销售非常强劲。\n\n低库存和购房周期重新被拉长必然约束年内美国地产销售。现在的情况是疫情下美国二手房即便房价上涨，库存跌到了2个月去库存时间，即按照一月份销售数据，两个月二手房就卖光了。没有库存自然会约束销售。新屋好像不受影响，因为会有新开工支持新屋供给。但随着疫情影响减弱，购房周期回归到正常的水平，我们确实看到了新屋去库存周期在反弹但仍然处于下限。\n地产开工取代销售称为年内地产亮点。美国地产销售数据确实有所回落，但跟疫前相比也还不错。此外，现在低库存、房价上涨、地产景气度高情况下，美国地产开发商将积极开工。所以和去年相比今年美国地产甚至经济环境里最重要的亮点不是销售，而是地产开工。\n\n3. 群体免疫将改变美国经济结构，亦影响中国出口结构\n美国的需求对中国形成了很大出口的拉动，如何理解去年至今美国的需求？\n美国的经济结构在疫情之后发生了扭曲。疫情之前，以个人消费为例，主要消费对象是服务，占到了7成。但该部分恢复与中国完全不一样，中国自去年二季度开始服务开始慢慢爬升，而美国去年8月份到今年2月份服务消费同比增速没有上升，可能只有群体免疫之后才会有一个质变。\n美国疫情之后财政一直在向居民进行转移支付，收入不降反升，且服务消费受到约束，肯定会使美国个人消费倾向朝其他方向转移，比如说耐用品的消费。同时去年二季度开始美国地产消费比较强劲，会带来两个直接的需求，一是地产后周期的家具家电，二是社交距离下买了郊区的房子后对汽车需求上升。以上因素叠加，我们看到去年二季度之后美国个人耐用品消费同比增速异常高，达到两位数，过去几十年都很罕见，这个也对中国对美国To C端出口形成很大的拉动。\n今年二季度末到三季度初美国耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降，中国对美To C端出口或将放缓。今年二季度末到三季度初美国需求结构会有一个很大的变化，就是耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降。有三个原因：第一，如果财政对于美国的消费有影响的话，而第三轮的财政刺激一定是最后一轮，疫情都要结束了，你还有什么理由给大家发钱呢？第二，如果我们认为大概6-7月份，或者三季度初美国实现群体免疫，压抑了一年的服务类消费需求会有一个报复性脉冲并对耐用品消费需求形成挤出。第三，美国地产今年注定了销售会不像去年那么景气，可能也会抑制地产后周期以及汽车的消费需求。\n\n美国地产开工和资本开支是亮点，对中国To B端出口形成拉动。如果美国在耐用品或者整个商品消费需求是下降的，那自然对中国To C端出口拉动没有像去年那么友好，甚至有可能是放缓的。幸运的是美国经济仍有亮点，一是地产开工非常积极，2月份有寒潮数据不具代表性，3月份应该还可以；二是美国M1很高，企业和老百姓手上都非常有钱，去年压制了一年的资本开支诉求有望在群体免疫后迸发。地产开工加上资本开支意味着美国To B端需求非常强劲，在二季度末至三季度初对中国的出口结构会有影响：To C端下滑但To B端改善。\n（二）美联储或于Q3收紧货币\n1. 美联储或于Q3削减QE\n经济好似乎是好事情，为何又是近忧呢？因为经济好会给货币政策收紧一个理由。美国无论是居民还是企业手里都有钱，并且是自有资金，消费和投资对于无风险利率上升并不敏感。因此对于美联储来讲，当她需要收紧货币政策时也会毫不犹豫。三季度我们认为美联储大概率削减QE，有两个原因。\n第一，过去几十年10年期美债收益率和美国政府杠杆率长期负相关，这是因为美国可以财政赤字化，美国每一次QE无非是帮财政压一压国债的发行成本，如果第三轮财政刺激是最后一轮，而基建在加税情况下财政收支平衡，我们未来看不到美国赤字率再大幅上升了。货币政策可以不那么激进。\n第二，美联储前主席耶伦在2月7日和3月7日两次提及如果第三轮财政刺激落地，2022年可以看到美国实现充分就业。其讲话包含货币政策含义，意味着美国在明年下半年很可能会引导加息预期了。我们可以倒推，金融危机之后，加息之前需要先结束QE，结束QE之前要先削减QE。14年用了10个月时间削减，倒推起来今年三季度或开始削减QE。\n\n2. 明年中10Y美债或触及2.25%\n我们可以用利差倒推明年10年期美债可能到什么样的高点。做债的朋友一定知道，利率债有牛陡、熊陡、熊平和牛平这样的利差交易策略。美国非常规律，无论经济衰退和复苏原因是什么，10年期和2年期美债利差始终规律运行，从倒挂到2.5%以上，再到倒挂再到2.5%以上。从倒挂到利差峰值一定经历了一个牛陡再到熊陡，随后进入熊平。熊平也就是在引导加息预期或者加息周期中。结合耶伦的讲话，明年下半年之前，我们很有可能看到10年期和2年期利差峰值出现。\n由此可见，即便保守来看明年二三季度10年期与2年期美债收益率差值起码也会到2%以上。目前美国基准利率上限是0.25%，因此明年中10年期美债收益率会在2.25%略高一点的位置。也许那个阶段就有很多资金配置了，比如说1月份收益率升破1%以后中国和日本这种本来持有美债的大户又增配了美债，去年利率很低的时候一直再减持。总体来看，10年期美债收益率的上行趋势应该还没有结束，意味着好像美股后面还是有风险的。\n\n3. Q3美股调整风险较大\n从定性、定量和日历效应三个因素看，美股4、5月份还有上涨空间，6-9月份下行概率和幅度会很大。\n第一，定性角度看。首先，去年以来每次美国宽财政的时候市场表现非常积极，甚至有散户开始叱诧风云，和美国人有时间、又有财政转移支付发的钱相关。第三轮财政刺激落地之后，理论上还会有一定的散户入场，市场参与度提高，风险偏好也会提高。此外，在第三轮财政刺激落地之后有一些涉及病毒检测和疫苗采购的部分开支，意味着美国会更接近群体免疫，经济向好预期也会有所帮助。最后，宽财政的时候美国政府很难会紧货币，短期2-3个月美国货币政策不会收紧，理论上4、5月份美国在定性上来看是可以上涨的。\n第二，从日历效应看。美股日历效应非常有规律，一般11、12、4、5月表现的不错，12个月中最差的就是6-9月份。\n第三，定量角度看。我们有一个四因子模型。简单说一下，你会发现美股不仅受美国经济影响，也会受海外经济影响，因为美国跨国公司很多，整个企业在境外的盈利占比达到三成，美国经济好不足以支持股市表现，因此美国经济和海外经济是我们考虑的第一个和第二个因素。第三个因素是美股结构，它和美国经济结构的差异，但这是一个慢变量就先不考虑了。第四个因素是无风险利率，第五个是风险溢价。剔除美股结构后，我们得到美股四因子模型，将四个因素建模我们回顾发现对美股拟合还可以。拟合结果和实际值的比较显示美股还没有超涨的信号，并且我们的结果显示4、5月份还会涨一涨。\n\n6月份往后看，美股调整压力非常大。从日历效应和四因子模型来看是如此，从定性角度来讲，6、7月份如果美国可以实现群体免疫，从图1可以看出全球群体免疫是错位的，和疫情问世时的预期是不一样的，群体免疫的时候需求的一些瑕疵会曝露出来，即此前的预期过于乐观了。再加上只要三季度美联储会去削减QE，10年期美债收益率在年内到2%，且大概率由实际利率驱动，这个时候美股下跌压力会比较大。\n拜登上任初期或寻求释放美股风险。进一步看，美股历年涨多跌少，但是下跌非常有规律，集中在每一个总统上任前两年。有一定有经济因素，因为上任前两年政策红利还没有释放出来，且经济刚经历衰退。但不否认有其他因素，美股是总统的成绩单，总统希望执政的中期有一个很漂亮的成绩单。美股风险什么时候释放呢？可能上任初期释放会比较好。\n\n加税+基建组合拳是金融危机后美股牛市逻辑的终结者。最近美国一直在提要加税和基建。其实这个财年根本没有机会落地了，但为什么一直要释放这样的信号？加税叠加基建，相当于是金融危机后美国牛市逻辑的终结者，因为金融危机后美国牛市无非是科技牛，赖以生存的宏观环境就是低通胀、低利率、再加上部分的美股回购。加税削弱EPS和美股回购逻辑，基建一定程度上配合美国的地产和其他一些因素，可能对于通胀预期有一些提振。本来只做基建的话，大家会认为后面美国财政赤字还会很高，货币政策还会宽松。但是配合加税下财政平衡，超宽松的货币政策可能不复存在了。整体来看，今年美股调整压力是比较大的。\n第二部分：海外市场的远虑\n（一）两因素看美债长期走势\n1. 10Y美债的长期定价因素\n以上是我们的近忧，我们看一下远虑，不是担忧而是我们的一些思考。\n美债收益率受经济因素与非经济因素影响。一方面大家知道美债他是一个特殊的利率债，如果讲中国的国债主要还是由中国的经济基本面影响的话，美债具有一些配置价值和避险价值，有非经济因素影响。经济因素方面，长期趋势一定和人口有关的，大体来看10年期美债走势和美国的劳动力人口增速是同趋势的。非经济因素是财政赤字货币化，美国政府杠杆率上行下无风险利率一定要下行，否则美国会面临债务问题。\n社会结构及财政政策驱动非经济变量。是不是美国政府杠杆率下行阶段，无风险利率一定要上行呢？虽然没有因果关系，但是可以想一个问题，美国过去几十年无风险利率和政府杠杆率为什么有的时候上行、有的时候下行。这和美国社会结构有很大关系。美国是两党轮流执政，但不是每次轮流执证就意味着两党的影响力在交替。包括2020年美国大选这一次，一战之后只有三次两党执政影响力的交替。民主党代表大政府，如果大家比较推崇民主党，即社会在呼吁公平；共和党代表小政府，是追求效率的，推崇共和党意味着整个社会是推崇效率的。\n在大萧条的时候，1933年罗斯福当选是一个节点，当时美国社会结构扭曲，中产占比很低，社会开始推崇民主党。如何实现公平呢？可以把他比作一个龟兔赛跑的游戏，缩小贫富差距应该在游戏规则里面去阻止兔子跑得快，一是加税，通过二次分配方式“劫富济贫”；二是适度上调无风险利率，低无风险利率有利于财富净值上涨，但对于低收入人群难有正贡献。\n到了80年代，美国社会结构优化得很好了，经历了70年代两次石油危机持续高失业率之后社会开始排斥民主党的公平性政策，反而对于共和党的效率性政策比较推崇。所以80年以里根当选为标志性事件，美国进入到了共和党影响力上升追求效率的阶段。我们看到减税期，政府杠杆率上升，无风险利率下降。\n\n2. 未来10年10年期美债收益率或走高\n特朗普败选和拜登当选就是一战之后的第三次两党影响力的交替。所以未来美国政府杠杆率会下降，无风险利率可以上升。美国因为是一个移民国家，二战之后还有婴儿潮和回声婴儿潮，未来10-20年劳动力人口增速会反弹一点。所以10年期美债中枢在未来10年可能是小幅上移的。\n\n（二）美股风格或迎长期切换\n1. 科技退潮；核心消费医药跑赢\n美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产。这样的变化会对美股逻辑有很大的影响。在过去几十年，科技股一直很受益，是因为美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产的。80年代后美股两次牛市都是科技牛，即长久期资产的牛市，因为对于科技股我们是用未来十年二十年之后的一些逻辑反推现在可能它可以达到什么样的股价和估值。\n科技牛即将退潮。如果我们认为10年期美债收益率下行趋势结束了，无论其上行幅度是怎样的，且现在美股估值（标普500指数10年席勒周期调整市盈率）又这么高，理论上美股风格在未来10年可能有变化。科技牛就要退潮。\n\n哪些板块会表现不错呢？第一，要缩小贫富差距，“接地气”资产会比较好，包括核心消费、医药和教育等等。第二，和基建以及地产相关的也应该有机会。\n2. 未来10年美国股房比回落\n美国股市与房市存在大约10年的轮动周期，未来10年股房比或回落。此外，我们还会发现美国的市场还有一个很有意思的大类资产之间的轮动，即美股和房地产之间的轮动。第一，虽然我们认为后面的10年是科技股退潮，还是会有表现不错的美国资产。但现在科技及金融行业确实是在美股包括标普500指数当中占比权重比较高，这意味着如果科技股退潮，指数表现是相对有点疲弱的。第二，我们反复强调现在位于美国地产十年上升周期的前半程。第三，美国现在的股房比到了纳斯达克泡沫破灭的高点，意味着可能未来的10年是股房比的下降周期。\n\n股房比回落利好非美市场。这一变化背后对应配置逻辑是：全球来讲美股算一类核心资产，在美国股房比上升阶段，相当于全球资金在抱团美股，对于其他的市场来讲，可能机会相对就不那么大，这个时候美股的表现应该比非美的市场好一些。反过来，股房比的下降大概率说明资金抱团在解散。全球的资金不会大量全部投进房地产，因为不具备流动性。资金抱团性解散的时候，资金会去美国海外找机会，非美的市场会有表现力。\n非美市场的机会在A股。非美市场中还有一条规律，无论是当年的日本、韩国以及中国香港地区，都证明了同一个规律，只要一个国家或者一个地区跨过了中等收入国家陷阱成为一个高收入国家（地区）的时候，随后的10年甚至日本当时是20年，股市可以跑赢美国，领跑全球。原因一方面是外资会从低配到标配甚至超配，一方面是居民资产搬家。\n未来10年如果股市的机会在非美，那么非美的机会在A股。我们知道大概2023-2024年中国是可以跨过中等收入国家陷阱的。其实中国经济方差很大，大湾区人均GDP已经跨过去了，因此此前若干年我们看到一些海外指数已经在配置一些A股。我相信未来10年A股是有长期机会。短期大家可能会纠结于A股市场的风险，我相信长期是不错的。希望大家可以做时间的朋友，预祝大家成为市场的赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
