农村小伙2 personal page - To The Moon

农村小伙2

一起交流挣钱

19Follow

183Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-04-07

**

Next 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3541569585216509","uuid":"3541569585216509","gmtCreate":1578475563144,"gmtModify":1585716013880,"name":"农村小伙2","pinyin":"ncxh2nongcunxiaohuo2","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"一起交流挣钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":183,"headSize":19,"tweetSize":98,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":17,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.03","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":341963486,"gmtCreate":1617771705845,"gmtModify":1704702926227,"author":{"id":"3541569585216509","authorId":"3541569585216509","name":"农村小伙2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541569585216509","authorIdStr":"3541569585216509"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**","listText":"**","text":"**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341963486","repostId":"1128707770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128707770","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617765006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128707770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-07 11:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Next 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128707770","media":"格隆汇","summary":"海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>The immediate concerns in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will reduce QE and when rate hike will take place; Foresight does not refer to our concerns about the long-term situation, but rather to our thinking about the prospects over the next 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part One: Immediate Concerns in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Looking at the post-pandemic prospects overseas through changes in the US economy</b></p><p><b>1. Post-pandemic recovery misalignment in overseas countries</b></p><p>First, let's talk about immediate concerns. The overseas economy seems to be doing well recently, but let's look at the chart below, which shows the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination as of last weekend (March 27). Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from what everyone expected after Pfizer announced the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than in the United States. This can prompt a lot of thought about the international situation, which will not be elaborated on here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries likely to break free from the constraints of the pandemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-pandemic prospects of overseas economies based on some future changes in the US economy, including how to view the impact of the US on Chinese exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of US real estate sales</b></p><p><b>As the pandemic draws to a close, the US real estate market is cooling down.</b>Last year, we believed that the current 10-year real estate upward cycle in the United States was only halfway through, but in February, sales data for existing and new homes in the United States fell rapidly. Why did we think last year that U.S. real estate was in a ten-year upward cycle? Looking at the three factors affecting the real estate market in the economy: urbanization process, credit environment, and population, the first two factors are currently considered neutral in the United States. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the home-buying age group (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and it can continue to rise until 2026. This is an important basis for our judgment. Furthermore, last year, US real estate sales did indeed reach a 14-year high, with a record high in value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-pandemic real estate sales boom in the United States stemmed from the pandemic-triggered demand for upgraded housing in the US and the shortened purchase cycle.</b>Looking back, the US real estate market performed unusually well last year, with a very steep slope. While the pandemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying a house, last year the main participants in the US real estate market were the middle class and high-net-worth groups. The post-pandemic sales boom in the US real estate market stemmed from the demand for improved housing triggered by the pandemic and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. If you've been buying a house in Shanghai or Beijing for at least six months to a year, you'll need some free time to view properties. The home-buying cycle has been greatly shortened under the pandemic. With online VR home viewing, the home-buying cycle can be completed in half a month to a month, which is why we saw that US real estate sales were very strong last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and a renewed lengthening of the homebuying cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales this year.</b>The current situation is that even if housing prices in the United States rise during the pandemic, the inventory of second-hand homes has fallen to a two-month destocking period. That is, according to January sales data, second-hand homes are sold out in two months. The lack of inventory will naturally constrain sales. New homes appear to be unaffected, as new construction starts will support the new housing supply. However, as the impact of the pandemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal, we have indeed seen a rebound in the new home inventory reduction cycle, but it is still at its lower limit.</p><p><b>Real estate starts replacing sales are considered the highlight of the year's real estate market.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is still quite good compared to before the pandemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising housing prices, and a strong real estate boom, U.S. real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared to last year, the most important highlight in the US real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction starts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the structure of the US economy and also affect China's export structure.</b></p><p>US demand has significantly boosted China's exports. How should we understand US demand since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted since the pandemic.</b>Before the pandemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumer was services, accounting for 70%. However, this recovery is completely different from that in China. In China, services began to slowly climb since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States did not increase from August last year to February this year. A qualitative change may only occur after herd immunity.</p><p>Since the pandemic, the US government has been transferring payments to residents, resulting in an increase in income rather than a decrease. Moreover, service consumption has been constrained, which will certainly cause American personal consumption tendencies to shift in other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. Meanwhile, the strong real estate consumption in the United States starting in the second quarter of last year will bring two direct demands: first, furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and second, the increased demand for cars after buying houses in the suburbs due to social distancing. Combined with the above factors, we have seen an exceptionally high year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year, reaching double digits, which is rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's exports To the United States To consumers.</p><p><b>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States is expected To decline significantly from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter of this year, and China's B2C exports To the United States may slow down.</b>The demand structure in the United States will undergo a significant change from the end of the second to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, with the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods declining substantially. There are three reasons: First, if fiscal policy has an impact on US consumption, and the third round of fiscal stimulus will definitely be the last round, with the pandemic almost over, what reason do you have to give money to everyone? Second, if we believe that the United States will achieve herd immunity around June or July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and crowd out the consumption demand for durable goods. Third, US real estate sales this year are destined to be less booming than last year, which may also dampen the post-real estate cycle and automobile consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>US real estate construction starts and capital expenditures are highlights, boosting China's B2B exports.</b>If US demand for durable goods or overall commodity consumption declines, then the boost To China's To C exports will naturally not be as friendly as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, the US economy still has bright spots. First, the real estate sector is starting construction very actively. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be okay in March. Secondly, the M1 level in the United States is very high, and businesses and ordinary people are very wealthy. The demand for capital expenditure, which was suppressed for a year last year, is expected to burst forth after herd immunity. Real estate construction starts coupled with capital expenditures mean that US B2B demand is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter: B2C declined but B2B improved.</p><p><b>(ii) The Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve may taper QE in Q3.</b></p><p>A good economy seems like a good thing, so why is it a near-term concern? Because a good economy gives a reason to tighten monetary policy. In the United States, both residents and businesses have money, and it is their own funds; consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy when it needs to. We believe the Federal Reserve is highly likely to reduce QE in the third quarter for two reasons.</p><p>First, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and the US government leverage ratio have been negatively correlated for decades. This is because the US can run a fiscal deficit. Every round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is nothing more than helping the fiscal government reduce the issuance costs of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are balanced under the infrastructure tax increase, we will not see the US deficit ratio rise significantly again in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States could achieve full employment by 2022. His speech contained monetary policy implications, meaning that the United States is likely to guide rate hike in the second half of next year. We can work backwards: after the financial crisis, rate hike needed to end QE first, and then reduce QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to reduce quantitative easing (QE) in 2014; looking back, QE may begin to be reduced in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 2.25% by the middle of next year.</b></p><p>We can use interest rate spreads to backtrack on what high the 10-year US Treasury yield might reach next year. Those who trade bonds will know that interest rate bonds have interest rate spread trading strategies such as bull steep, bear steep, bear flat, and bull flat. The United States has a very regular pattern. Regardless of the reasons for the economic recession and recovery, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has always followed a regular pattern, from an inverted curve to above 2.5%, and then to an inverted curve to above 2.5%. From the inverted curve to the peak of the interest rate spread, there must have been a bull surge, then a bear surge, and then a bear flattening. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Based on Yellen's speech, we are very likely to see the 10-year and 2-year interest rate spreads peak before the second half of next year.</p><p>Therefore, even conservatively speaking, the difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds will reach at least 2% in the second and third quarters of next year. Currently, the upper limit of the US benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will be slightly higher at 2.25% by the middle of next year. Perhaps a lot of funds were allocated during that period. For example, after the yield broke through 1% in January, large holders of US Treasury bonds, such as China and Japan, increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds and kept reducing their holdings when interest rates were very low last year. Overall, the upward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields should not be over yet, which means that there still seems to be risks in the US stock market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. There is a high risk of a correction in US stocks in Q3.</b></p><p>Judging from three factors: qualitative, quantitative, and calendar effects, US stocks still have room to rise in April and May, while the probability and magnitude of a decline in June and September are very high.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative perspective.</b>First, since last year, the market has performed very positively every time the US has eased its fiscal policy, and some retail investors have even begun to make waves. This is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfers. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, increasing market participation and risk appetite. In addition, some expenditures related to virus testing and vaccine procurement after the implementation of the third round of fiscal stimulus mean that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and positive economic expectations will also help. Finally, it is unlikely that the US government will tighten monetary policy during periods of fiscal easing. In the short term, US monetary policy will not tighten for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the US monetary policy could rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of US stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April and May performed well, while June and September were the worst of the 12 months.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you'll find that the US stock market is influenced not only by the US economy but also by overseas economies. This is because there are many multinational corporations in the US, and overseas profits account for 30% of their total profits. A strong US economy is not enough to support stock market performance. Therefore, the US economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the US stock market, which differs from the structure of the US economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the US stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the US stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that it fits the US stock market well. A comparison of the fitted results and the actual values shows that there is no sign of an overpriced US stock market yet, and our results indicate that it will rise further in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to June, US stocks will face significant downward pressure.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, as can be seen from Figure 1, global herd immunity is misaligned and different from the expectations when the pandemic emerged. Some flaws in the needs of herd immunity will be exposed, that is, the previous expectations were too optimistic. In addition, if the Federal Reserve tapers QE in the third quarter, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will reach 2% this year, and it will most likely be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on US stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in the US stock market early in his term.</b>Looking further, US stocks have historically seen more gains than losses, but their declines have been very regular, concentrated in the first two years of each president's term. There are certainly economic factors, because the policy dividends had not yet been released in the two years before he took office, and the economy had just experienced a recession. However, it cannot be denied that there are other factors. The US stock market is the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a very impressive report card in the middle of his term. When will the risks in the US stock market be released? It might be better to release him early in his tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increases and infrastructure investment measures is the end of the bull market logic in the US stock market after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been raising tariffs and infrastructure issues. In fact, there was no chance of it being implemented this fiscal year, so why keep sending out such signals? Tax increases combined with infrastructure investment are essentially the end of the logic of the US bull market after the financial crisis, because the US bull market after the financial crisis was nothing more than a technology bull market, and the macroeconomic environment it depended on for survival was low inflation, low interest rates, and some US stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken EPS and the logic of US stock buybacks. Infrastructure investment, to some extent in conjunction with the US real estate market and other factors, may boost inflation expectations. If we had originally only focused on infrastructure, people would have thought that the US fiscal deficit would remain high and monetary policy would remain loose. However, coupled with fiscal balance under tax increases, ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the US stock market will face significant downward pressure this year.</p><p><b>Part Two: Foresight in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Two factors to assess the long-term trend of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10-year US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>The above are our immediate concerns. Let's take a look at the long-term considerations, which are not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields are affected by both economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, as everyone knows, US Treasury bonds are a special interest rate bond. If we talk about China's Treasury Bond, it is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals. US Treasury bonds have some allocation value and safe-haven value, but are influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend is definitely related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year US Treasury bonds and the growth rate of the US labor force are in the same trend. Non-economic factors include the monetization of fiscal deficits. With the US government's leverage ratio rising, the risk-free interest rate must decline; otherwise, the US will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it true that the risk-free interest rate must rise during a period of declining US government leverage? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about one question: why have the US risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio sometimes risen and sometimes fallen over the past few decades? This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. The United States has a two-party system, but each rotation does not mean that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 US presidential election, there have only been three alternations of governing influence between the two parties since World War I. The Democratic Party represents a large government. If people respect the Democratic Party, it means that society is calling for fairness. The Republican Party represents small government and pursues efficiency. Promoting the Republican Party means that society as a whole promotes efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a turning point. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the middle class had a very low proportion, and society began to favor the Democratic Party. How can fairness be achieved? It can be compared to a race between the tortoise and the hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the rules of the game should stop the rabbit from running fast. One way is to raise taxes and \"rob the rich to help the poor\" through secondary distribution. Second, the risk-free interest rate should be moderately raised. Low risk-free interest rates are conducive to increasing net worth, but they are unlikely to make a positive contribution to low-income groups.</p><p>By the 1980s, the social structure of the United States had been well optimized. After the two oil crises of the 1970s and the persistently high unemployment rate, society began to reject the Democratic Party's fairness policies and instead favored the Republican Party's efficiency policies. Therefore, with Reagan's election in 1980 as a landmark event, the United States entered a stage where the Republican Party's influence rose and it pursued efficiency. We saw a period of tax cuts, with government leverage rising and risk-free interest rates falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year US Treasury yields may rise over the next 10 years.</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election marked the third shift in influence between the two parties since World War I. Therefore, the US government's leverage ratio will decline in the future, while the risk-free interest rate may rise. Because the United States is a nation of immigrants, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of the labor force is expected to rebound slightly in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the central level of 10-year US Treasury bonds may shift slightly upwards over the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(II) US stock market style may be undergoing a long-term shift.</b></p><p><b>1. Technological decline; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>A decline in U.S. bond yields is more beneficial to long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a significant impact on the logic of US stocks. Technology stocks have benefited greatly over the past few decades because lower U.S. bond yields have been more beneficial to long-term assets. Both bull markets in the US stock market since the 1980s were technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets. This is because we use some logic to extrapolate what kind of stock price and valuation technology stocks might reach now, ten or twenty years from now.</p><p><b>The tech bull market is about to recede.</b>If we believe that the downward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields has ended, regardless of the rate of increase, and that US stock valuations (the S&P 500's 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E) are currently so high, theoretically the style of US stocks may change in the next 10 years. The tech bull market is about to recede.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"down-to-earth\" assets are better, including core consumption, medicine and education, etc. Second, there should also be opportunities in those related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The US stock-to-property ratio will decline over the next 10 years.</b></p><p><b>The US stock market and housing market have a rotation cycle of about 10 years, and the stock-to-housing ratio may decline in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the US market, namely the rotation between US stocks and real estate. First, although we believe that the next 10 years will see a decline in technology stocks, there will still be US assets that perform well. However, the technology and financial sectors do now account for a relatively high proportion of US stocks, including the S&P 500, which means that if technology stocks decline, the index's performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are currently in the first half of a ten-year upward cycle for U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the peak of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle for the stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is beneficial to non-US markets.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally, US stocks are considered a core asset class. During the rising phase of the US stock-to-property ratio, it is equivalent to global funds flocking to US stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may not be as great. At this time, US stocks should perform better than non-US markets. Conversely, a decline in the stock-to-property ratio most likely indicates that the funds are disbanding. Global funds will not be invested entirely in real estate in large quantities because it lacks liquidity. When funds disband in groups, they will seek opportunities in the United States and overseas markets, and non-US markets will have a significant impact.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another pattern in non-US markets. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong all proved the same pattern: as long as a country or region overcomes the middle-income trap and becomes a high-income country (region), its stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the following 10 years, or even 20 years for Japan at the time. The reasons are twofold: firstly, foreign capital will shift from underweight to standard or even overweight; and secondly, residents will relocate their assets.</p><p>If the opportunities in the stock market over the next 10 years lie in non-US stocks, then the opportunities in non-US stocks will lie in A-shares. We know that China will be able to overcome the middle-income trap around 2023-2024. In fact, China's economy has a large variance, and the per capita GDP of the Greater Bay Area has already surpassed that of the Greater Bay Area. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen some overseas indices allocating some A-shares. I believe there are long-term opportunities in the A-share market over the next 10 years. In the short term, people may be concerned about the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is a good thing in the long run. I hope everyone can be friends with time, and I wish everyone to become a winner in the market.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>The immediate concerns in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will reduce QE and when rate hike will take place; Foresight does not refer to our concerns about the long-term situation, but rather to our thinking about the prospects over the next 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part One: Immediate Concerns in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Looking at the post-pandemic prospects overseas through changes in the US economy</b></p><p><b>1. Post-pandemic recovery misalignment in overseas countries</b></p><p>First, let's talk about immediate concerns. The overseas economy seems to be doing well recently, but let's look at the chart below, which shows the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination as of last weekend (March 27). Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from what everyone expected after Pfizer announced the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than in the United States. This can prompt a lot of thought about the international situation, which will not be elaborated on here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries likely to break free from the constraints of the pandemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-pandemic prospects of overseas economies based on some future changes in the US economy, including how to view the impact of the US on Chinese exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of US real estate sales</b></p><p><b>As the pandemic draws to a close, the US real estate market is cooling down.</b>Last year, we believed that the current 10-year real estate upward cycle in the United States was only halfway through, but in February, sales data for existing and new homes in the United States fell rapidly. Why did we think last year that U.S. real estate was in a ten-year upward cycle? Looking at the three factors affecting the real estate market in the economy: urbanization process, credit environment, and population, the first two factors are currently considered neutral in the United States. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the home-buying age group (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and it can continue to rise until 2026. This is an important basis for our judgment. Furthermore, last year, US real estate sales did indeed reach a 14-year high, with a record high in value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-pandemic real estate sales boom in the United States stemmed from the pandemic-triggered demand for upgraded housing in the US and the shortened purchase cycle.</b>Looking back, the US real estate market performed unusually well last year, with a very steep slope. While the pandemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying a house, last year the main participants in the US real estate market were the middle class and high-net-worth groups. The post-pandemic sales boom in the US real estate market stemmed from the demand for improved housing triggered by the pandemic and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. If you've been buying a house in Shanghai or Beijing for at least six months to a year, you'll need some free time to view properties. The home-buying cycle has been greatly shortened under the pandemic. With online VR home viewing, the home-buying cycle can be completed in half a month to a month, which is why we saw that US real estate sales were very strong last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and a renewed lengthening of the homebuying cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales this year.</b>The current situation is that even if housing prices in the United States rise during the pandemic, the inventory of second-hand homes has fallen to a two-month destocking period. That is, according to January sales data, second-hand homes are sold out in two months. The lack of inventory will naturally constrain sales. New homes appear to be unaffected, as new construction starts will support the new housing supply. However, as the impact of the pandemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal, we have indeed seen a rebound in the new home inventory reduction cycle, but it is still at its lower limit.</p><p><b>Real estate starts replacing sales are considered the highlight of the year's real estate market.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is still quite good compared to before the pandemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising housing prices, and a strong real estate boom, U.S. real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared to last year, the most important highlight in the US real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction starts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the structure of the US economy and also affect China's export structure.</b></p><p>US demand has significantly boosted China's exports. How should we understand US demand since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted since the pandemic.</b>Before the pandemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumer was services, accounting for 70%. However, this recovery is completely different from that in China. In China, services began to slowly climb since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States did not increase from August last year to February this year. A qualitative change may only occur after herd immunity.</p><p>Since the pandemic, the US government has been transferring payments to residents, resulting in an increase in income rather than a decrease. Moreover, service consumption has been constrained, which will certainly cause American personal consumption tendencies to shift in other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. Meanwhile, the strong real estate consumption in the United States starting in the second quarter of last year will bring two direct demands: first, furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and second, the increased demand for cars after buying houses in the suburbs due to social distancing. Combined with the above factors, we have seen an exceptionally high year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year, reaching double digits, which is rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's exports To the United States To consumers.</p><p><b>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States is expected To decline significantly from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter of this year, and China's B2C exports To the United States may slow down.</b>The demand structure in the United States will undergo a significant change from the end of the second to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, with the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods declining substantially. There are three reasons: First, if fiscal policy has an impact on US consumption, and the third round of fiscal stimulus will definitely be the last round, with the pandemic almost over, what reason do you have to give money to everyone? Second, if we believe that the United States will achieve herd immunity around June or July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and crowd out the consumption demand for durable goods. Third, US real estate sales this year are destined to be less booming than last year, which may also dampen the post-real estate cycle and automobile consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>US real estate construction starts and capital expenditures are highlights, boosting China's B2B exports.</b>If US demand for durable goods or overall commodity consumption declines, then the boost To China's To C exports will naturally not be as friendly as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, the US economy still has bright spots. First, the real estate sector is starting construction very actively. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be okay in March. Secondly, the M1 level in the United States is very high, and businesses and ordinary people are very wealthy. The demand for capital expenditure, which was suppressed for a year last year, is expected to burst forth after herd immunity. Real estate construction starts coupled with capital expenditures mean that US B2B demand is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter: B2C declined but B2B improved.</p><p><b>(ii) The Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve may taper QE in Q3.</b></p><p>A good economy seems like a good thing, so why is it a near-term concern? Because a good economy gives a reason to tighten monetary policy. In the United States, both residents and businesses have money, and it is their own funds; consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy when it needs to. We believe the Federal Reserve is highly likely to reduce QE in the third quarter for two reasons.</p><p>First, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and the US government leverage ratio have been negatively correlated for decades. This is because the US can run a fiscal deficit. Every round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is nothing more than helping the fiscal government reduce the issuance costs of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are balanced under the infrastructure tax increase, we will not see the US deficit ratio rise significantly again in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States could achieve full employment by 2022. His speech contained monetary policy implications, meaning that the United States is likely to guide rate hike in the second half of next year. We can work backwards: after the financial crisis, rate hike needed to end QE first, and then reduce QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to reduce quantitative easing (QE) in 2014; looking back, QE may begin to be reduced in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 2.25% by the middle of next year.</b></p><p>We can use interest rate spreads to backtrack on what high the 10-year US Treasury yield might reach next year. Those who trade bonds will know that interest rate bonds have interest rate spread trading strategies such as bull steep, bear steep, bear flat, and bull flat. The United States has a very regular pattern. Regardless of the reasons for the economic recession and recovery, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has always followed a regular pattern, from an inverted curve to above 2.5%, and then to an inverted curve to above 2.5%. From the inverted curve to the peak of the interest rate spread, there must have been a bull surge, then a bear surge, and then a bear flattening. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Based on Yellen's speech, we are very likely to see the 10-year and 2-year interest rate spreads peak before the second half of next year.</p><p>Therefore, even conservatively speaking, the difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds will reach at least 2% in the second and third quarters of next year. Currently, the upper limit of the US benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will be slightly higher at 2.25% by the middle of next year. Perhaps a lot of funds were allocated during that period. For example, after the yield broke through 1% in January, large holders of US Treasury bonds, such as China and Japan, increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds and kept reducing their holdings when interest rates were very low last year. Overall, the upward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields should not be over yet, which means that there still seems to be risks in the US stock market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. There is a high risk of a correction in US stocks in Q3.</b></p><p>Judging from three factors: qualitative, quantitative, and calendar effects, US stocks still have room to rise in April and May, while the probability and magnitude of a decline in June and September are very high.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative perspective.</b>First, since last year, the market has performed very positively every time the US has eased its fiscal policy, and some retail investors have even begun to make waves. This is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfers. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, increasing market participation and risk appetite. In addition, some expenditures related to virus testing and vaccine procurement after the implementation of the third round of fiscal stimulus mean that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and positive economic expectations will also help. Finally, it is unlikely that the US government will tighten monetary policy during periods of fiscal easing. In the short term, US monetary policy will not tighten for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the US monetary policy could rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of US stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April and May performed well, while June and September were the worst of the 12 months.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you'll find that the US stock market is influenced not only by the US economy but also by overseas economies. This is because there are many multinational corporations in the US, and overseas profits account for 30% of their total profits. A strong US economy is not enough to support stock market performance. Therefore, the US economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the US stock market, which differs from the structure of the US economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the US stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the US stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that it fits the US stock market well. A comparison of the fitted results and the actual values shows that there is no sign of an overpriced US stock market yet, and our results indicate that it will rise further in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to June, US stocks will face significant downward pressure.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, as can be seen from Figure 1, global herd immunity is misaligned and different from the expectations when the pandemic emerged. Some flaws in the needs of herd immunity will be exposed, that is, the previous expectations were too optimistic. In addition, if the Federal Reserve tapers QE in the third quarter, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will reach 2% this year, and it will most likely be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on US stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in the US stock market early in his term.</b>Looking further, US stocks have historically seen more gains than losses, but their declines have been very regular, concentrated in the first two years of each president's term. There are certainly economic factors, because the policy dividends had not yet been released in the two years before he took office, and the economy had just experienced a recession. However, it cannot be denied that there are other factors. The US stock market is the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a very impressive report card in the middle of his term. When will the risks in the US stock market be released? It might be better to release him early in his tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increases and infrastructure investment measures is the end of the bull market logic in the US stock market after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been raising tariffs and infrastructure issues. In fact, there was no chance of it being implemented this fiscal year, so why keep sending out such signals? Tax increases combined with infrastructure investment are essentially the end of the logic of the US bull market after the financial crisis, because the US bull market after the financial crisis was nothing more than a technology bull market, and the macroeconomic environment it depended on for survival was low inflation, low interest rates, and some US stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken EPS and the logic of US stock buybacks. Infrastructure investment, to some extent in conjunction with the US real estate market and other factors, may boost inflation expectations. If we had originally only focused on infrastructure, people would have thought that the US fiscal deficit would remain high and monetary policy would remain loose. However, coupled with fiscal balance under tax increases, ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the US stock market will face significant downward pressure this year.</p><p><b>Part Two: Foresight in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Two factors to assess the long-term trend of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10-year US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>The above are our immediate concerns. Let's take a look at the long-term considerations, which are not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields are affected by both economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, as everyone knows, US Treasury bonds are a special interest rate bond. If we talk about China's Treasury Bond, it is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals. US Treasury bonds have some allocation value and safe-haven value, but are influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend is definitely related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year US Treasury bonds and the growth rate of the US labor force are in the same trend. Non-economic factors include the monetization of fiscal deficits. With the US government's leverage ratio rising, the risk-free interest rate must decline; otherwise, the US will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it true that the risk-free interest rate must rise during a period of declining US government leverage? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about one question: why have the US risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio sometimes risen and sometimes fallen over the past few decades? This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. The United States has a two-party system, but each rotation does not mean that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 US presidential election, there have only been three alternations of governing influence between the two parties since World War I. The Democratic Party represents a large government. If people respect the Democratic Party, it means that society is calling for fairness. The Republican Party represents small government and pursues efficiency. Promoting the Republican Party means that society as a whole promotes efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a turning point. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the middle class had a very low proportion, and society began to favor the Democratic Party. How can fairness be achieved? It can be compared to a race between the tortoise and the hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the rules of the game should stop the rabbit from running fast. One way is to raise taxes and \"rob the rich to help the poor\" through secondary distribution. Second, the risk-free interest rate should be moderately raised. Low risk-free interest rates are conducive to increasing net worth, but they are unlikely to make a positive contribution to low-income groups.</p><p>By the 1980s, the social structure of the United States had been well optimized. After the two oil crises of the 1970s and the persistently high unemployment rate, society began to reject the Democratic Party's fairness policies and instead favored the Republican Party's efficiency policies. Therefore, with Reagan's election in 1980 as a landmark event, the United States entered a stage where the Republican Party's influence rose and it pursued efficiency. We saw a period of tax cuts, with government leverage rising and risk-free interest rates falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year US Treasury yields may rise over the next 10 years.</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election marked the third shift in influence between the two parties since World War I. Therefore, the US government's leverage ratio will decline in the future, while the risk-free interest rate may rise. Because the United States is a nation of immigrants, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of the labor force is expected to rebound slightly in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the central level of 10-year US Treasury bonds may shift slightly upwards over the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(II) US stock market style may be undergoing a long-term shift.</b></p><p><b>1. Technological decline; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>A decline in U.S. bond yields is more beneficial to long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a significant impact on the logic of US stocks. Technology stocks have benefited greatly over the past few decades because lower U.S. bond yields have been more beneficial to long-term assets. Both bull markets in the US stock market since the 1980s were technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets. This is because we use some logic to extrapolate what kind of stock price and valuation technology stocks might reach now, ten or twenty years from now.</p><p><b>The tech bull market is about to recede.</b>If we believe that the downward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields has ended, regardless of the rate of increase, and that US stock valuations (the S&P 500's 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E) are currently so high, theoretically the style of US stocks may change in the next 10 years. The tech bull market is about to recede.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"down-to-earth\" assets are better, including core consumption, medicine and education, etc. Second, there should also be opportunities in those related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The US stock-to-property ratio will decline over the next 10 years.</b></p><p><b>The US stock market and housing market have a rotation cycle of about 10 years, and the stock-to-housing ratio may decline in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the US market, namely the rotation between US stocks and real estate. First, although we believe that the next 10 years will see a decline in technology stocks, there will still be US assets that perform well. However, the technology and financial sectors do now account for a relatively high proportion of US stocks, including the S&P 500, which means that if technology stocks decline, the index's performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are currently in the first half of a ten-year upward cycle for U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the peak of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle for the stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is beneficial to non-US markets.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally, US stocks are considered a core asset class. During the rising phase of the US stock-to-property ratio, it is equivalent to global funds flocking to US stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may not be as great. At this time, US stocks should perform better than non-US markets. Conversely, a decline in the stock-to-property ratio most likely indicates that the funds are disbanding. Global funds will not be invested entirely in real estate in large quantities because it lacks liquidity. When funds disband in groups, they will seek opportunities in the United States and overseas markets, and non-US markets will have a significant impact.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another pattern in non-US markets. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong all proved the same pattern: as long as a country or region overcomes the middle-income trap and becomes a high-income country (region), its stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the following 10 years, or even 20 years for Japan at the time. The reasons are twofold: firstly, foreign capital will shift from underweight to standard or even overweight; and secondly, residents will relocate their assets.</p><p>If the opportunities in the stock market over the next 10 years lie in non-US stocks, then the opportunities in non-US stocks will lie in A-shares. We know that China will be able to overcome the middle-income trap around 2023-2024. In fact, China's economy has a large variance, and the per capita GDP of the Greater Bay Area has already surpassed that of the Greater Bay Area. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen some overseas indices allocating some A-shares. I believe there are long-term opportunities in the A-share market over the next 10 years. In the short term, people may be concerned about the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is a good thing in the long run. I hope everyone can be friends with time, and I wish everyone to become a winner in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1128707770","content_text":"作者：张静静\n海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息；远虑并不是指我们对于长期形势的担忧、更多是对于5-10年前景的思考，包括海外资产风格的变化，还有美股风格的变化。\n第一部分：海外市场的近忧\n（一）由美国经济变化看海外疫后前景\n1. 海外各国疫后恢复错位\n先说近忧，最近海外经济看起来还可以，但是先看下面这张图，截止到上周末（截至3月27日）主要海外经济体完成疫苗接种的人口占比。释放了两个信号，第一个信号，总体形势好像和去年11月9日辉瑞宣布疫苗问世后大家的预期不太一样，即便是欧洲这样的经济体，和美国相比疫苗接种进展慢了很多，这个可以引发很多关于国际形势的思考，此处不过多展开。第二个信号，美国和英国作为可能最先摆脱疫情约束的国家，未来经济发展很有代表性。因此，我们可以从美国经济未来一些变化评估整个海外经济疫后前景，包括怎么看美国对中国出口的影响以及美联储货币政策何时收紧。\n\n2. 如何理解美国地产销售降温\n疫情即将结束，美国地产降温。我们去年认为当下美国10年地产上升周期只走到了前半程，但2月份美国二手房（成屋）和一手房（新屋）销售数据掉得很快。为什么我们去年认为美国地产处于十年上升周期？从影响经济体的地产的三个因素，城镇化过程、信用环境和人口来看，前两个因素在美国当下都算中性的，第三个因素我们参考购房年龄段人口（20-49岁）而非人口总数，该指标增速在2016年触底且同比转正，可以持续上升至2026年，这是我们判断的重要依据。并且去年美国地产确实创下14年以来销量新高，金额历史新高。\n\n\n疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。反思一下，去年美国地产好的有点异常，斜率非常陡峭。疫情确实带来购房成本下移，但去年参与到美国房地产的主要是中产和高净值群体，疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。各位在上海或者北京的购房周期起码在半年到一年以上，需要有一个工作之余的时间才可以看房。疫情之下购房周期被大大缩短了，凭借线上VR看房，可能半个月到一个月就完成了购房周期，因此我们才看到了去年美国地产销售非常强劲。\n\n低库存和购房周期重新被拉长必然约束年内美国地产销售。现在的情况是疫情下美国二手房即便房价上涨，库存跌到了2个月去库存时间，即按照一月份销售数据，两个月二手房就卖光了。没有库存自然会约束销售。新屋好像不受影响，因为会有新开工支持新屋供给。但随着疫情影响减弱，购房周期回归到正常的水平，我们确实看到了新屋去库存周期在反弹但仍然处于下限。\n地产开工取代销售称为年内地产亮点。美国地产销售数据确实有所回落，但跟疫前相比也还不错。此外，现在低库存、房价上涨、地产景气度高情况下，美国地产开发商将积极开工。所以和去年相比今年美国地产甚至经济环境里最重要的亮点不是销售，而是地产开工。\n\n3. 群体免疫将改变美国经济结构，亦影响中国出口结构\n美国的需求对中国形成了很大出口的拉动，如何理解去年至今美国的需求？\n美国的经济结构在疫情之后发生了扭曲。疫情之前，以个人消费为例，主要消费对象是服务，占到了7成。但该部分恢复与中国完全不一样，中国自去年二季度开始服务开始慢慢爬升，而美国去年8月份到今年2月份服务消费同比增速没有上升，可能只有群体免疫之后才会有一个质变。\n美国疫情之后财政一直在向居民进行转移支付，收入不降反升，且服务消费受到约束，肯定会使美国个人消费倾向朝其他方向转移，比如说耐用品的消费。同时去年二季度开始美国地产消费比较强劲，会带来两个直接的需求，一是地产后周期的家具家电，二是社交距离下买了郊区的房子后对汽车需求上升。以上因素叠加，我们看到去年二季度之后美国个人耐用品消费同比增速异常高，达到两位数，过去几十年都很罕见，这个也对中国对美国To C端出口形成很大的拉动。\n今年二季度末到三季度初美国耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降，中国对美To C端出口或将放缓。今年二季度末到三季度初美国需求结构会有一个很大的变化，就是耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降。有三个原因：第一，如果财政对于美国的消费有影响的话，而第三轮的财政刺激一定是最后一轮，疫情都要结束了，你还有什么理由给大家发钱呢？第二，如果我们认为大概6-7月份，或者三季度初美国实现群体免疫，压抑了一年的服务类消费需求会有一个报复性脉冲并对耐用品消费需求形成挤出。第三，美国地产今年注定了销售会不像去年那么景气，可能也会抑制地产后周期以及汽车的消费需求。\n\n美国地产开工和资本开支是亮点，对中国To B端出口形成拉动。如果美国在耐用品或者整个商品消费需求是下降的，那自然对中国To C端出口拉动没有像去年那么友好，甚至有可能是放缓的。幸运的是美国经济仍有亮点，一是地产开工非常积极，2月份有寒潮数据不具代表性，3月份应该还可以；二是美国M1很高，企业和老百姓手上都非常有钱，去年压制了一年的资本开支诉求有望在群体免疫后迸发。地产开工加上资本开支意味着美国To B端需求非常强劲，在二季度末至三季度初对中国的出口结构会有影响：To C端下滑但To B端改善。\n（二）美联储或于Q3收紧货币\n1.  美联储或于Q3削减QE\n经济好似乎是好事情，为何又是近忧呢？因为经济好会给货币政策收紧一个理由。美国无论是居民还是企业手里都有钱，并且是自有资金，消费和投资对于无风险利率上升并不敏感。因此对于美联储来讲，当她需要收紧货币政策时也会毫不犹豫。三季度我们认为美联储大概率削减QE，有两个原因。\n第一，过去几十年10年期美债收益率和美国政府杠杆率长期负相关，这是因为美国可以财政赤字化，美国每一次QE无非是帮财政压一压国债的发行成本，如果第三轮财政刺激是最后一轮，而基建在加税情况下财政收支平衡，我们未来看不到美国赤字率再大幅上升了。货币政策可以不那么激进。\n第二，美联储前主席耶伦在2月7日和3月7日两次提及如果第三轮财政刺激落地，2022年可以看到美国实现充分就业。其讲话包含货币政策含义，意味着美国在明年下半年很可能会引导加息预期了。我们可以倒推，金融危机之后，加息之前需要先结束QE，结束QE之前要先削减QE。14年用了10个月时间削减，倒推起来今年三季度或开始削减QE。\n\n2.  明年中10Y美债或触及2.25%\n我们可以用利差倒推明年10年期美债可能到什么样的高点。做债的朋友一定知道，利率债有牛陡、熊陡、熊平和牛平这样的利差交易策略。美国非常规律，无论经济衰退和复苏原因是什么，10年期和2年期美债利差始终规律运行，从倒挂到2.5%以上，再到倒挂再到2.5%以上。从倒挂到利差峰值一定经历了一个牛陡再到熊陡，随后进入熊平。熊平也就是在引导加息预期或者加息周期中。结合耶伦的讲话，明年下半年之前，我们很有可能看到10年期和2年期利差峰值出现。\n由此可见，即便保守来看明年二三季度10年期与2年期美债收益率差值起码也会到2%以上。目前美国基准利率上限是0.25%，因此明年中10年期美债收益率会在2.25%略高一点的位置。也许那个阶段就有很多资金配置了，比如说1月份收益率升破1%以后中国和日本这种本来持有美债的大户又增配了美债，去年利率很低的时候一直再减持。总体来看，10年期美债收益率的上行趋势应该还没有结束，意味着好像美股后面还是有风险的。\n\n3.  Q3美股调整风险较大\n从定性、定量和日历效应三个因素看，美股4、5月份还有上涨空间，6-9月份下行概率和幅度会很大。\n第一，定性角度看。首先，去年以来每次美国宽财政的时候市场表现非常积极，甚至有散户开始叱诧风云，和美国人有时间、又有财政转移支付发的钱相关。第三轮财政刺激落地之后，理论上还会有一定的散户入场，市场参与度提高，风险偏好也会提高。此外，在第三轮财政刺激落地之后有一些涉及病毒检测和疫苗采购的部分开支，意味着美国会更接近群体免疫，经济向好预期也会有所帮助。最后，宽财政的时候美国政府很难会紧货币，短期2-3个月美国货币政策不会收紧，理论上4、5月份美国在定性上来看是可以上涨的。\n第二，从日历效应看。美股日历效应非常有规律，一般11、12、4、5月表现的不错，12个月中最差的就是6-9月份。\n第三，定量角度看。我们有一个四因子模型。简单说一下，你会发现美股不仅受美国经济影响，也会受海外经济影响，因为美国跨国公司很多，整个企业在境外的盈利占比达到三成，美国经济好不足以支持股市表现，因此美国经济和海外经济是我们考虑的第一个和第二个因素。第三个因素是美股结构，它和美国经济结构的差异，但这是一个慢变量就先不考虑了。第四个因素是无风险利率，第五个是风险溢价。剔除美股结构后，我们得到美股四因子模型，将四个因素建模我们回顾发现对美股拟合还可以。拟合结果和实际值的比较显示美股还没有超涨的信号，并且我们的结果显示4、5月份还会涨一涨。\n\n6月份往后看，美股调整压力非常大。从日历效应和四因子模型来看是如此，从定性角度来讲，6、7月份如果美国可以实现群体免疫，从图1可以看出全球群体免疫是错位的，和疫情问世时的预期是不一样的，群体免疫的时候需求的一些瑕疵会曝露出来，即此前的预期过于乐观了。再加上只要三季度美联储会去削减QE，10年期美债收益率在年内到2%，且大概率由实际利率驱动，这个时候美股下跌压力会比较大。\n拜登上任初期或寻求释放美股风险。进一步看，美股历年涨多跌少，但是下跌非常有规律，集中在每一个总统上任前两年。有一定有经济因素，因为上任前两年政策红利还没有释放出来，且经济刚经历衰退。但不否认有其他因素，美股是总统的成绩单，总统希望执政的中期有一个很漂亮的成绩单。美股风险什么时候释放呢？可能上任初期释放会比较好。\n\n加税+基建组合拳是金融危机后美股牛市逻辑的终结者。最近美国一直在提要加税和基建。其实这个财年根本没有机会落地了，但为什么一直要释放这样的信号？加税叠加基建，相当于是金融危机后美国牛市逻辑的终结者，因为金融危机后美国牛市无非是科技牛，赖以生存的宏观环境就是低通胀、低利率、再加上部分的美股回购。加税削弱EPS和美股回购逻辑，基建一定程度上配合美国的地产和其他一些因素，可能对于通胀预期有一些提振。本来只做基建的话，大家会认为后面美国财政赤字还会很高，货币政策还会宽松。但是配合加税下财政平衡，超宽松的货币政策可能不复存在了。整体来看，今年美股调整压力是比较大的。\n第二部分：海外市场的远虑\n（一）两因素看美债长期走势\n1.  10Y美债的长期定价因素\n以上是我们的近忧，我们看一下远虑，不是担忧而是我们的一些思考。\n美债收益率受经济因素与非经济因素影响。一方面大家知道美债他是一个特殊的利率债，如果讲中国的国债主要还是由中国的经济基本面影响的话，美债具有一些配置价值和避险价值，有非经济因素影响。经济因素方面，长期趋势一定和人口有关的，大体来看10年期美债走势和美国的劳动力人口增速是同趋势的。非经济因素是财政赤字货币化，美国政府杠杆率上行下无风险利率一定要下行，否则美国会面临债务问题。\n社会结构及财政政策驱动非经济变量。是不是美国政府杠杆率下行阶段，无风险利率一定要上行呢？虽然没有因果关系，但是可以想一个问题，美国过去几十年无风险利率和政府杠杆率为什么有的时候上行、有的时候下行。这和美国社会结构有很大关系。美国是两党轮流执政，但不是每次轮流执证就意味着两党的影响力在交替。包括2020年美国大选这一次，一战之后只有三次两党执政影响力的交替。民主党代表大政府，如果大家比较推崇民主党，即社会在呼吁公平；共和党代表小政府，是追求效率的，推崇共和党意味着整个社会是推崇效率的。\n在大萧条的时候，1933年罗斯福当选是一个节点，当时美国社会结构扭曲，中产占比很低，社会开始推崇民主党。如何实现公平呢？可以把他比作一个龟兔赛跑的游戏，缩小贫富差距应该在游戏规则里面去阻止兔子跑得快，一是加税，通过二次分配方式“劫富济贫”；二是适度上调无风险利率，低无风险利率有利于财富净值上涨，但对于低收入人群难有正贡献。\n到了80年代，美国社会结构优化得很好了，经历了70年代两次石油危机持续高失业率之后社会开始排斥民主党的公平性政策，反而对于共和党的效率性政策比较推崇。所以80年以里根当选为标志性事件，美国进入到了共和党影响力上升追求效率的阶段。我们看到减税期，政府杠杆率上升，无风险利率下降。\n\n2.  未来10年10年期美债收益率或走高\n特朗普败选和拜登当选就是一战之后的第三次两党影响力的交替。所以未来美国政府杠杆率会下降，无风险利率可以上升。美国因为是一个移民国家，二战之后还有婴儿潮和回声婴儿潮，未来10-20年劳动力人口增速会反弹一点。所以10年期美债中枢在未来10年可能是小幅上移的。\n\n（二）美股风格或迎长期切换\n1.  科技退潮；核心消费医药跑赢\n美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产。这样的变化会对美股逻辑有很大的影响。在过去几十年，科技股一直很受益，是因为美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产的。80年代后美股两次牛市都是科技牛，即长久期资产的牛市，因为对于科技股我们是用未来十年二十年之后的一些逻辑反推现在可能它可以达到什么样的股价和估值。\n科技牛即将退潮。如果我们认为10年期美债收益率下行趋势结束了，无论其上行幅度是怎样的，且现在美股估值（标普500指数10年席勒周期调整市盈率）又这么高，理论上美股风格在未来10年可能有变化。科技牛就要退潮。\n\n哪些板块会表现不错呢？第一，要缩小贫富差距，“接地气”资产会比较好，包括核心消费、医药和教育等等。第二，和基建以及地产相关的也应该有机会。\n2.  未来10年美国股房比回落\n美国股市与房市存在大约10年的轮动周期，未来10年股房比或回落。此外，我们还会发现美国的市场还有一个很有意思的大类资产之间的轮动，即美股和房地产之间的轮动。第一，虽然我们认为后面的10年是科技股退潮，还是会有表现不错的美国资产。但现在科技及金融行业确实是在美股包括标普500指数当中占比权重比较高，这意味着如果科技股退潮，指数表现是相对有点疲弱的。第二，我们反复强调现在位于美国地产十年上升周期的前半程。第三，美国现在的股房比到了纳斯达克泡沫破灭的高点，意味着可能未来的10年是股房比的下降周期。\n\n股房比回落利好非美市场。这一变化背后对应配置逻辑是：全球来讲美股算一类核心资产，在美国股房比上升阶段，相当于全球资金在抱团美股，对于其他的市场来讲，可能机会相对就不那么大，这个时候美股的表现应该比非美的市场好一些。反过来，股房比的下降大概率说明资金抱团在解散。全球的资金不会大量全部投进房地产，因为不具备流动性。资金抱团性解散的时候，资金会去美国海外找机会，非美的市场会有表现力。\n非美市场的机会在A股。非美市场中还有一条规律，无论是当年的日本、韩国以及中国香港地区，都证明了同一个规律，只要一个国家或者一个地区跨过了中等收入国家陷阱成为一个高收入国家（地区）的时候，随后的10年甚至日本当时是20年，股市可以跑赢美国，领跑全球。原因一方面是外资会从低配到标配甚至超配，一方面是居民资产搬家。\n未来10年如果股市的机会在非美，那么非美的机会在A股。我们知道大概2023-2024年中国是可以跨过中等收入国家陷阱的。其实中国经济方差很大，大湾区人均GDP已经跨过去了，因此此前若干年我们看到一些海外指数已经在配置一些A股。我相信未来10年A股是有长期机会。短期大家可能会纠结于A股市场的风险，我相信长期是不错的。希望大家可以做时间的朋友，预祝大家成为市场的赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":341963486,"gmtCreate":1617771705845,"gmtModify":1704702926227,"author":{"id":"3541569585216509","authorId":"3541569585216509","name":"农村小伙2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541569585216509","idStr":"3541569585216509"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**","listText":"**","text":"**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341963486","repostId":"1128707770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128707770","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617765006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128707770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-07 11:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Next 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128707770","media":"格隆汇","summary":"海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>The immediate concerns in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will reduce QE and when rate hike will take place; Foresight does not refer to our concerns about the long-term situation, but rather to our thinking about the prospects over the next 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part One: Immediate Concerns in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Looking at the post-pandemic prospects overseas through changes in the US economy</b></p><p><b>1. Post-pandemic recovery misalignment in overseas countries</b></p><p>First, let's talk about immediate concerns. The overseas economy seems to be doing well recently, but let's look at the chart below, which shows the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination as of last weekend (March 27). Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from what everyone expected after Pfizer announced the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than in the United States. This can prompt a lot of thought about the international situation, which will not be elaborated on here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries likely to break free from the constraints of the pandemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-pandemic prospects of overseas economies based on some future changes in the US economy, including how to view the impact of the US on Chinese exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of US real estate sales</b></p><p><b>As the pandemic draws to a close, the US real estate market is cooling down.</b>Last year, we believed that the current 10-year real estate upward cycle in the United States was only halfway through, but in February, sales data for existing and new homes in the United States fell rapidly. Why did we think last year that U.S. real estate was in a ten-year upward cycle? Looking at the three factors affecting the real estate market in the economy: urbanization process, credit environment, and population, the first two factors are currently considered neutral in the United States. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the home-buying age group (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and it can continue to rise until 2026. This is an important basis for our judgment. Furthermore, last year, US real estate sales did indeed reach a 14-year high, with a record high in value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-pandemic real estate sales boom in the United States stemmed from the pandemic-triggered demand for upgraded housing in the US and the shortened purchase cycle.</b>Looking back, the US real estate market performed unusually well last year, with a very steep slope. While the pandemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying a house, last year the main participants in the US real estate market were the middle class and high-net-worth groups. The post-pandemic sales boom in the US real estate market stemmed from the demand for improved housing triggered by the pandemic and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. If you've been buying a house in Shanghai or Beijing for at least six months to a year, you'll need some free time to view properties. The home-buying cycle has been greatly shortened under the pandemic. With online VR home viewing, the home-buying cycle can be completed in half a month to a month, which is why we saw that US real estate sales were very strong last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and a renewed lengthening of the homebuying cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales this year.</b>The current situation is that even if housing prices in the United States rise during the pandemic, the inventory of second-hand homes has fallen to a two-month destocking period. That is, according to January sales data, second-hand homes are sold out in two months. The lack of inventory will naturally constrain sales. New homes appear to be unaffected, as new construction starts will support the new housing supply. However, as the impact of the pandemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal, we have indeed seen a rebound in the new home inventory reduction cycle, but it is still at its lower limit.</p><p><b>Real estate starts replacing sales are considered the highlight of the year's real estate market.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is still quite good compared to before the pandemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising housing prices, and a strong real estate boom, U.S. real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared to last year, the most important highlight in the US real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction starts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the structure of the US economy and also affect China's export structure.</b></p><p>US demand has significantly boosted China's exports. How should we understand US demand since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted since the pandemic.</b>Before the pandemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumer was services, accounting for 70%. However, this recovery is completely different from that in China. In China, services began to slowly climb since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States did not increase from August last year to February this year. A qualitative change may only occur after herd immunity.</p><p>Since the pandemic, the US government has been transferring payments to residents, resulting in an increase in income rather than a decrease. Moreover, service consumption has been constrained, which will certainly cause American personal consumption tendencies to shift in other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. Meanwhile, the strong real estate consumption in the United States starting in the second quarter of last year will bring two direct demands: first, furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and second, the increased demand for cars after buying houses in the suburbs due to social distancing. Combined with the above factors, we have seen an exceptionally high year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year, reaching double digits, which is rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's exports To the United States To consumers.</p><p><b>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States is expected To decline significantly from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter of this year, and China's B2C exports To the United States may slow down.</b>The demand structure in the United States will undergo a significant change from the end of the second to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, with the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods declining substantially. There are three reasons: First, if fiscal policy has an impact on US consumption, and the third round of fiscal stimulus will definitely be the last round, with the pandemic almost over, what reason do you have to give money to everyone? Second, if we believe that the United States will achieve herd immunity around June or July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and crowd out the consumption demand for durable goods. Third, US real estate sales this year are destined to be less booming than last year, which may also dampen the post-real estate cycle and automobile consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>US real estate construction starts and capital expenditures are highlights, boosting China's B2B exports.</b>If US demand for durable goods or overall commodity consumption declines, then the boost To China's To C exports will naturally not be as friendly as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, the US economy still has bright spots. First, the real estate sector is starting construction very actively. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be okay in March. Secondly, the M1 level in the United States is very high, and businesses and ordinary people are very wealthy. The demand for capital expenditure, which was suppressed for a year last year, is expected to burst forth after herd immunity. Real estate construction starts coupled with capital expenditures mean that US B2B demand is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter: B2C declined but B2B improved.</p><p><b>(ii) The Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve may taper QE in Q3.</b></p><p>A good economy seems like a good thing, so why is it a near-term concern? Because a good economy gives a reason to tighten monetary policy. In the United States, both residents and businesses have money, and it is their own funds; consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy when it needs to. We believe the Federal Reserve is highly likely to reduce QE in the third quarter for two reasons.</p><p>First, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and the US government leverage ratio have been negatively correlated for decades. This is because the US can run a fiscal deficit. Every round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is nothing more than helping the fiscal government reduce the issuance costs of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are balanced under the infrastructure tax increase, we will not see the US deficit ratio rise significantly again in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States could achieve full employment by 2022. His speech contained monetary policy implications, meaning that the United States is likely to guide rate hike in the second half of next year. We can work backwards: after the financial crisis, rate hike needed to end QE first, and then reduce QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to reduce quantitative easing (QE) in 2014; looking back, QE may begin to be reduced in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 2.25% by the middle of next year.</b></p><p>We can use interest rate spreads to backtrack on what high the 10-year US Treasury yield might reach next year. Those who trade bonds will know that interest rate bonds have interest rate spread trading strategies such as bull steep, bear steep, bear flat, and bull flat. The United States has a very regular pattern. Regardless of the reasons for the economic recession and recovery, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has always followed a regular pattern, from an inverted curve to above 2.5%, and then to an inverted curve to above 2.5%. From the inverted curve to the peak of the interest rate spread, there must have been a bull surge, then a bear surge, and then a bear flattening. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Based on Yellen's speech, we are very likely to see the 10-year and 2-year interest rate spreads peak before the second half of next year.</p><p>Therefore, even conservatively speaking, the difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds will reach at least 2% in the second and third quarters of next year. Currently, the upper limit of the US benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will be slightly higher at 2.25% by the middle of next year. Perhaps a lot of funds were allocated during that period. For example, after the yield broke through 1% in January, large holders of US Treasury bonds, such as China and Japan, increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds and kept reducing their holdings when interest rates were very low last year. Overall, the upward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields should not be over yet, which means that there still seems to be risks in the US stock market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. There is a high risk of a correction in US stocks in Q3.</b></p><p>Judging from three factors: qualitative, quantitative, and calendar effects, US stocks still have room to rise in April and May, while the probability and magnitude of a decline in June and September are very high.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative perspective.</b>First, since last year, the market has performed very positively every time the US has eased its fiscal policy, and some retail investors have even begun to make waves. This is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfers. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, increasing market participation and risk appetite. In addition, some expenditures related to virus testing and vaccine procurement after the implementation of the third round of fiscal stimulus mean that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and positive economic expectations will also help. Finally, it is unlikely that the US government will tighten monetary policy during periods of fiscal easing. In the short term, US monetary policy will not tighten for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the US monetary policy could rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of US stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April and May performed well, while June and September were the worst of the 12 months.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you'll find that the US stock market is influenced not only by the US economy but also by overseas economies. This is because there are many multinational corporations in the US, and overseas profits account for 30% of their total profits. A strong US economy is not enough to support stock market performance. Therefore, the US economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the US stock market, which differs from the structure of the US economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the US stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the US stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that it fits the US stock market well. A comparison of the fitted results and the actual values shows that there is no sign of an overpriced US stock market yet, and our results indicate that it will rise further in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to June, US stocks will face significant downward pressure.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, as can be seen from Figure 1, global herd immunity is misaligned and different from the expectations when the pandemic emerged. Some flaws in the needs of herd immunity will be exposed, that is, the previous expectations were too optimistic. In addition, if the Federal Reserve tapers QE in the third quarter, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will reach 2% this year, and it will most likely be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on US stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in the US stock market early in his term.</b>Looking further, US stocks have historically seen more gains than losses, but their declines have been very regular, concentrated in the first two years of each president's term. There are certainly economic factors, because the policy dividends had not yet been released in the two years before he took office, and the economy had just experienced a recession. However, it cannot be denied that there are other factors. The US stock market is the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a very impressive report card in the middle of his term. When will the risks in the US stock market be released? It might be better to release him early in his tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increases and infrastructure investment measures is the end of the bull market logic in the US stock market after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been raising tariffs and infrastructure issues. In fact, there was no chance of it being implemented this fiscal year, so why keep sending out such signals? Tax increases combined with infrastructure investment are essentially the end of the logic of the US bull market after the financial crisis, because the US bull market after the financial crisis was nothing more than a technology bull market, and the macroeconomic environment it depended on for survival was low inflation, low interest rates, and some US stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken EPS and the logic of US stock buybacks. Infrastructure investment, to some extent in conjunction with the US real estate market and other factors, may boost inflation expectations. If we had originally only focused on infrastructure, people would have thought that the US fiscal deficit would remain high and monetary policy would remain loose. However, coupled with fiscal balance under tax increases, ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the US stock market will face significant downward pressure this year.</p><p><b>Part Two: Foresight in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Two factors to assess the long-term trend of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10-year US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>The above are our immediate concerns. Let's take a look at the long-term considerations, which are not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields are affected by both economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, as everyone knows, US Treasury bonds are a special interest rate bond. If we talk about China's Treasury Bond, it is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals. US Treasury bonds have some allocation value and safe-haven value, but are influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend is definitely related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year US Treasury bonds and the growth rate of the US labor force are in the same trend. Non-economic factors include the monetization of fiscal deficits. With the US government's leverage ratio rising, the risk-free interest rate must decline; otherwise, the US will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it true that the risk-free interest rate must rise during a period of declining US government leverage? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about one question: why have the US risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio sometimes risen and sometimes fallen over the past few decades? This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. The United States has a two-party system, but each rotation does not mean that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 US presidential election, there have only been three alternations of governing influence between the two parties since World War I. The Democratic Party represents a large government. If people respect the Democratic Party, it means that society is calling for fairness. The Republican Party represents small government and pursues efficiency. Promoting the Republican Party means that society as a whole promotes efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a turning point. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the middle class had a very low proportion, and society began to favor the Democratic Party. How can fairness be achieved? It can be compared to a race between the tortoise and the hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the rules of the game should stop the rabbit from running fast. One way is to raise taxes and \"rob the rich to help the poor\" through secondary distribution. Second, the risk-free interest rate should be moderately raised. Low risk-free interest rates are conducive to increasing net worth, but they are unlikely to make a positive contribution to low-income groups.</p><p>By the 1980s, the social structure of the United States had been well optimized. After the two oil crises of the 1970s and the persistently high unemployment rate, society began to reject the Democratic Party's fairness policies and instead favored the Republican Party's efficiency policies. Therefore, with Reagan's election in 1980 as a landmark event, the United States entered a stage where the Republican Party's influence rose and it pursued efficiency. We saw a period of tax cuts, with government leverage rising and risk-free interest rates falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year US Treasury yields may rise over the next 10 years.</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election marked the third shift in influence between the two parties since World War I. Therefore, the US government's leverage ratio will decline in the future, while the risk-free interest rate may rise. Because the United States is a nation of immigrants, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of the labor force is expected to rebound slightly in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the central level of 10-year US Treasury bonds may shift slightly upwards over the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(II) US stock market style may be undergoing a long-term shift.</b></p><p><b>1. Technological decline; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>A decline in U.S. bond yields is more beneficial to long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a significant impact on the logic of US stocks. Technology stocks have benefited greatly over the past few decades because lower U.S. bond yields have been more beneficial to long-term assets. Both bull markets in the US stock market since the 1980s were technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets. This is because we use some logic to extrapolate what kind of stock price and valuation technology stocks might reach now, ten or twenty years from now.</p><p><b>The tech bull market is about to recede.</b>If we believe that the downward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields has ended, regardless of the rate of increase, and that US stock valuations (the S&P 500's 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E) are currently so high, theoretically the style of US stocks may change in the next 10 years. The tech bull market is about to recede.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"down-to-earth\" assets are better, including core consumption, medicine and education, etc. Second, there should also be opportunities in those related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The US stock-to-property ratio will decline over the next 10 years.</b></p><p><b>The US stock market and housing market have a rotation cycle of about 10 years, and the stock-to-housing ratio may decline in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the US market, namely the rotation between US stocks and real estate. First, although we believe that the next 10 years will see a decline in technology stocks, there will still be US assets that perform well. However, the technology and financial sectors do now account for a relatively high proportion of US stocks, including the S&P 500, which means that if technology stocks decline, the index's performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are currently in the first half of a ten-year upward cycle for U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the peak of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle for the stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is beneficial to non-US markets.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally, US stocks are considered a core asset class. During the rising phase of the US stock-to-property ratio, it is equivalent to global funds flocking to US stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may not be as great. At this time, US stocks should perform better than non-US markets. Conversely, a decline in the stock-to-property ratio most likely indicates that the funds are disbanding. Global funds will not be invested entirely in real estate in large quantities because it lacks liquidity. When funds disband in groups, they will seek opportunities in the United States and overseas markets, and non-US markets will have a significant impact.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another pattern in non-US markets. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong all proved the same pattern: as long as a country or region overcomes the middle-income trap and becomes a high-income country (region), its stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the following 10 years, or even 20 years for Japan at the time. The reasons are twofold: firstly, foreign capital will shift from underweight to standard or even overweight; and secondly, residents will relocate their assets.</p><p>If the opportunities in the stock market over the next 10 years lie in non-US stocks, then the opportunities in non-US stocks will lie in A-shares. We know that China will be able to overcome the middle-income trap around 2023-2024. In fact, China's economy has a large variance, and the per capita GDP of the Greater Bay Area has already surpassed that of the Greater Bay Area. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen some overseas indices allocating some A-shares. I believe there are long-term opportunities in the A-share market over the next 10 years. In the short term, people may be concerned about the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is a good thing in the long run. I hope everyone can be friends with time, and I wish everyone to become a winner in the market.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext 10 years: Stock market opportunities are in non-American, non-American opportunities are in A-shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Jingjing</p><p>The immediate concerns in overseas markets refer to changes in the next 1-2 years, such as when the Federal Reserve will reduce QE and when rate hike will take place; Foresight does not refer to our concerns about the long-term situation, but rather to our thinking about the prospects over the next 5-10 years, including changes in the style of overseas assets and changes in the style of US stocks.</p><p><b>Part One: Immediate Concerns in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Looking at the post-pandemic prospects overseas through changes in the US economy</b></p><p><b>1. Post-pandemic recovery misalignment in overseas countries</b></p><p>First, let's talk about immediate concerns. The overseas economy seems to be doing well recently, but let's look at the chart below, which shows the proportion of people in major overseas economies who have completed vaccination as of last weekend (March 27). Two signals were released. The first signal is that the overall situation seems to be different from what everyone expected after Pfizer announced the vaccine on November 9 last year. Even in economies like Europe, vaccination progress is much slower than in the United States. This can prompt a lot of thought about the international situation, which will not be elaborated on here. The second signal is that the United States and the United Kingdom, as the first countries likely to break free from the constraints of the pandemic, are very representative of their future economic development. Therefore, we can assess the post-pandemic prospects of overseas economies based on some future changes in the US economy, including how to view the impact of the US on Chinese exports and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc3964cfe464d8b9b308923e73653b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How to understand the cooling of US real estate sales</b></p><p><b>As the pandemic draws to a close, the US real estate market is cooling down.</b>Last year, we believed that the current 10-year real estate upward cycle in the United States was only halfway through, but in February, sales data for existing and new homes in the United States fell rapidly. Why did we think last year that U.S. real estate was in a ten-year upward cycle? Looking at the three factors affecting the real estate market in the economy: urbanization process, credit environment, and population, the first two factors are currently considered neutral in the United States. For the third factor, we refer to the population of the home-buying age group (20-49 years old) rather than the total population. The growth rate of this indicator bottomed out in 2016 and turned positive year-on-year, and it can continue to rise until 2026. This is an important basis for our judgment. Furthermore, last year, US real estate sales did indeed reach a 14-year high, with a record high in value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc4908fd452d734d5e35bed60131a31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56639bbb70c070bac844e2ab650fdbb6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The post-pandemic real estate sales boom in the United States stemmed from the pandemic-triggered demand for upgraded housing in the US and the shortened purchase cycle.</b>Looking back, the US real estate market performed unusually well last year, with a very steep slope. While the pandemic has indeed brought down the cost of buying a house, last year the main participants in the US real estate market were the middle class and high-net-worth groups. The post-pandemic sales boom in the US real estate market stemmed from the demand for improved housing triggered by the pandemic and the shortening of the home purchase cycle. If you've been buying a house in Shanghai or Beijing for at least six months to a year, you'll need some free time to view properties. The home-buying cycle has been greatly shortened under the pandemic. With online VR home viewing, the home-buying cycle can be completed in half a month to a month, which is why we saw that US real estate sales were very strong last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80472dbe9457714389c42c12458b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Low inventory and a renewed lengthening of the homebuying cycle will inevitably constrain U.S. real estate sales this year.</b>The current situation is that even if housing prices in the United States rise during the pandemic, the inventory of second-hand homes has fallen to a two-month destocking period. That is, according to January sales data, second-hand homes are sold out in two months. The lack of inventory will naturally constrain sales. New homes appear to be unaffected, as new construction starts will support the new housing supply. However, as the impact of the pandemic weakens and the home purchase cycle returns to normal, we have indeed seen a rebound in the new home inventory reduction cycle, but it is still at its lower limit.</p><p><b>Real estate starts replacing sales are considered the highlight of the year's real estate market.</b>U.S. real estate sales data has indeed declined, but it is still quite good compared to before the pandemic. In addition, with low inventory, rising housing prices, and a strong real estate boom, U.S. real estate developers will actively start construction. Therefore, compared to last year, the most important highlight in the US real estate and even the economic environment this year is not sales, but real estate construction starts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc8cd2b05a99584cc0416b22e5134c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Herd immunity will change the structure of the US economy and also affect China's export structure.</b></p><p>US demand has significantly boosted China's exports. How should we understand US demand since last year?</p><p><b>The economic structure of the United States has been distorted since the pandemic.</b>Before the pandemic, taking personal consumption as an example, the main consumer was services, accounting for 70%. However, this recovery is completely different from that in China. In China, services began to slowly climb since the second quarter of last year, while the year-on-year growth rate of service consumption in the United States did not increase from August last year to February this year. A qualitative change may only occur after herd immunity.</p><p>Since the pandemic, the US government has been transferring payments to residents, resulting in an increase in income rather than a decrease. Moreover, service consumption has been constrained, which will certainly cause American personal consumption tendencies to shift in other directions, such as the consumption of durable goods. Meanwhile, the strong real estate consumption in the United States starting in the second quarter of last year will bring two direct demands: first, furniture and home appliances in the post-real estate cycle, and second, the increased demand for cars after buying houses in the suburbs due to social distancing. Combined with the above factors, we have seen an exceptionally high year-on-year growth rate of personal durable goods consumption in the United States after the second quarter of last year, reaching double digits, which is rare in the past few decades. This has also greatly boosted China's exports To the United States To consumers.</p><p><b>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods in the United States is expected To decline significantly from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter of this year, and China's B2C exports To the United States may slow down.</b>The demand structure in the United States will undergo a significant change from the end of the second to the beginning of the third quarter of this year, with the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending on durable goods declining substantially. There are three reasons: First, if fiscal policy has an impact on US consumption, and the third round of fiscal stimulus will definitely be the last round, with the pandemic almost over, what reason do you have to give money to everyone? Second, if we believe that the United States will achieve herd immunity around June or July, or the beginning of the third quarter, the service consumption demand that has been suppressed for a year will have a retaliatory pulse and crowd out the consumption demand for durable goods. Third, US real estate sales this year are destined to be less booming than last year, which may also dampen the post-real estate cycle and automobile consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5bacda21b9e9bbceaaab83f4b649ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>US real estate construction starts and capital expenditures are highlights, boosting China's B2B exports.</b>If US demand for durable goods or overall commodity consumption declines, then the boost To China's To C exports will naturally not be as friendly as last year, and may even slow down. Fortunately, the US economy still has bright spots. First, the real estate sector is starting construction very actively. The cold wave data in February is not representative, but it should be okay in March. Secondly, the M1 level in the United States is very high, and businesses and ordinary people are very wealthy. The demand for capital expenditure, which was suppressed for a year last year, is expected to burst forth after herd immunity. Real estate construction starts coupled with capital expenditures mean that US B2B demand is very strong, which will have an impact on China's export structure from the end of the second To the beginning of the third quarter: B2C declined but B2B improved.</p><p><b>(ii) The Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy in Q3</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve may taper QE in Q3.</b></p><p>A good economy seems like a good thing, so why is it a near-term concern? Because a good economy gives a reason to tighten monetary policy. In the United States, both residents and businesses have money, and it is their own funds; consumption and investment are not sensitive to rising risk-free interest rates. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy when it needs to. We believe the Federal Reserve is highly likely to reduce QE in the third quarter for two reasons.</p><p>First, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and the US government leverage ratio have been negatively correlated for decades. This is because the US can run a fiscal deficit. Every round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is nothing more than helping the fiscal government reduce the issuance costs of Treasury Bond. If the third round of fiscal stimulus is the last round, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are balanced under the infrastructure tax increase, we will not see the US deficit ratio rise significantly again in the future. Monetary policy can be less aggressive.</p><p>Second, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen mentioned twice on February 7 and March 7 that if the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, the United States could achieve full employment by 2022. His speech contained monetary policy implications, meaning that the United States is likely to guide rate hike in the second half of next year. We can work backwards: after the financial crisis, rate hike needed to end QE first, and then reduce QE before ending QE. It took 10 months to reduce quantitative easing (QE) in 2014; looking back, QE may begin to be reduced in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5277d3cc539d073e615a7b68b3977cae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 2.25% by the middle of next year.</b></p><p>We can use interest rate spreads to backtrack on what high the 10-year US Treasury yield might reach next year. Those who trade bonds will know that interest rate bonds have interest rate spread trading strategies such as bull steep, bear steep, bear flat, and bull flat. The United States has a very regular pattern. Regardless of the reasons for the economic recession and recovery, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has always followed a regular pattern, from an inverted curve to above 2.5%, and then to an inverted curve to above 2.5%. From the inverted curve to the peak of the interest rate spread, there must have been a bull surge, then a bear surge, and then a bear flattening. Xiong Ping is also guiding rate hike expectations or rate hike cycles. Based on Yellen's speech, we are very likely to see the 10-year and 2-year interest rate spreads peak before the second half of next year.</p><p>Therefore, even conservatively speaking, the difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds will reach at least 2% in the second and third quarters of next year. Currently, the upper limit of the US benchmark interest rate is 0.25%, so the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will be slightly higher at 2.25% by the middle of next year. Perhaps a lot of funds were allocated during that period. For example, after the yield broke through 1% in January, large holders of US Treasury bonds, such as China and Japan, increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds and kept reducing their holdings when interest rates were very low last year. Overall, the upward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields should not be over yet, which means that there still seems to be risks in the US stock market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04adbbbc6e96219ab0197b6da0e1117d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. There is a high risk of a correction in US stocks in Q3.</b></p><p>Judging from three factors: qualitative, quantitative, and calendar effects, US stocks still have room to rise in April and May, while the probability and magnitude of a decline in June and September are very high.</p><p><b>First, from a qualitative perspective.</b>First, since last year, the market has performed very positively every time the US has eased its fiscal policy, and some retail investors have even begun to make waves. This is related to the fact that Americans have time and money from fiscal transfers. After the third round of fiscal stimulus is implemented, theoretically, a certain number of retail investors will enter the market, increasing market participation and risk appetite. In addition, some expenditures related to virus testing and vaccine procurement after the implementation of the third round of fiscal stimulus mean that the United States will be closer to herd immunity, and positive economic expectations will also help. Finally, it is unlikely that the US government will tighten monetary policy during periods of fiscal easing. In the short term, US monetary policy will not tighten for 2-3 months. Theoretically, the US monetary policy could rise qualitatively in April and May.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the calendar effect.</b>The calendar effect of US stocks is very regular. Generally, November, December, April and May performed well, while June and September were the worst of the 12 months.</p><p><b>Third, from a quantitative perspective.</b>We have a four-factor model. To put it simply, you'll find that the US stock market is influenced not only by the US economy but also by overseas economies. This is because there are many multinational corporations in the US, and overseas profits account for 30% of their total profits. A strong US economy is not enough to support stock market performance. Therefore, the US economy and overseas economies are the first and second factors we consider. The third factor is the structure of the US stock market, which differs from the structure of the US economy, but this is a slow variable and will not be considered for now. The fourth factor is the risk-free interest rate, and the fifth is the risk premium. After removing the structure of the US stock market, we obtained a four-factor model of the US stock market. After modeling the four factors, we reviewed and found that it fits the US stock market well. A comparison of the fitted results and the actual values shows that there is no sign of an overpriced US stock market yet, and our results indicate that it will rise further in April and May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9563ff60d13dbb78834b3c53c3fdf8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to June, US stocks will face significant downward pressure.</b>This is true from the perspective of the calendar effect and the four-factor model. From a qualitative point of view, if the United States can achieve herd immunity in June and July, as can be seen from Figure 1, global herd immunity is misaligned and different from the expectations when the pandemic emerged. Some flaws in the needs of herd immunity will be exposed, that is, the previous expectations were too optimistic. In addition, if the Federal Reserve tapers QE in the third quarter, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will reach 2% this year, and it will most likely be driven by real interest rates. At this time, the downward pressure on US stocks will be relatively high.</p><p><b>Biden may seek to release risks in the US stock market early in his term.</b>Looking further, US stocks have historically seen more gains than losses, but their declines have been very regular, concentrated in the first two years of each president's term. There are certainly economic factors, because the policy dividends had not yet been released in the two years before he took office, and the economy had just experienced a recession. However, it cannot be denied that there are other factors. The US stock market is the president's report card, and the president hopes to have a very impressive report card in the middle of his term. When will the risks in the US stock market be released? It might be better to release him early in his tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1468f73ff1d490754a323147fd60966\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The combination of tax increases and infrastructure investment measures is the end of the bull market logic in the US stock market after the financial crisis.</b>Recently, the United States has been raising tariffs and infrastructure issues. In fact, there was no chance of it being implemented this fiscal year, so why keep sending out such signals? Tax increases combined with infrastructure investment are essentially the end of the logic of the US bull market after the financial crisis, because the US bull market after the financial crisis was nothing more than a technology bull market, and the macroeconomic environment it depended on for survival was low inflation, low interest rates, and some US stock buybacks. Tax increases weaken EPS and the logic of US stock buybacks. Infrastructure investment, to some extent in conjunction with the US real estate market and other factors, may boost inflation expectations. If we had originally only focused on infrastructure, people would have thought that the US fiscal deficit would remain high and monetary policy would remain loose. However, coupled with fiscal balance under tax increases, ultra-loose monetary policy may no longer exist. Overall, the US stock market will face significant downward pressure this year.</p><p><b>Part Two: Foresight in Overseas Markets</b></p><p><b>(I) Two factors to assess the long-term trend of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p><b>1. Long-term pricing factors for 10-year US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>The above are our immediate concerns. Let's take a look at the long-term considerations, which are not worries but some of our thoughts.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields are affected by both economic and non-economic factors.</b>On the one hand, as everyone knows, US Treasury bonds are a special interest rate bond. If we talk about China's Treasury Bond, it is mainly influenced by China's economic fundamentals. US Treasury bonds have some allocation value and safe-haven value, but are influenced by non-economic factors. In terms of economic factors, the long-term trend is definitely related to population. Generally speaking, the trend of 10-year US Treasury bonds and the growth rate of the US labor force are in the same trend. Non-economic factors include the monetization of fiscal deficits. With the US government's leverage ratio rising, the risk-free interest rate must decline; otherwise, the US will face debt problems.</p><p><b>Social structure and fiscal policy drive non-economic variables.</b>Is it true that the risk-free interest rate must rise during a period of declining US government leverage? Although there is no causal relationship, we can think about one question: why have the US risk-free interest rate and government leverage ratio sometimes risen and sometimes fallen over the past few decades? This has a lot to do with the structure of American society. The United States has a two-party system, but each rotation does not mean that the influence of the two parties is alternating. Including the 2020 US presidential election, there have only been three alternations of governing influence between the two parties since World War I. The Democratic Party represents a large government. If people respect the Democratic Party, it means that society is calling for fairness. The Republican Party represents small government and pursues efficiency. Promoting the Republican Party means that society as a whole promotes efficiency.</p><p>During the Great Depression, Roosevelt's election in 1933 was a turning point. At that time, the social structure of the United States was distorted, the middle class had a very low proportion, and society began to favor the Democratic Party. How can fairness be achieved? It can be compared to a race between the tortoise and the hare. To narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the rules of the game should stop the rabbit from running fast. One way is to raise taxes and \"rob the rich to help the poor\" through secondary distribution. Second, the risk-free interest rate should be moderately raised. Low risk-free interest rates are conducive to increasing net worth, but they are unlikely to make a positive contribution to low-income groups.</p><p>By the 1980s, the social structure of the United States had been well optimized. After the two oil crises of the 1970s and the persistently high unemployment rate, society began to reject the Democratic Party's fairness policies and instead favored the Republican Party's efficiency policies. Therefore, with Reagan's election in 1980 as a landmark event, the United States entered a stage where the Republican Party's influence rose and it pursued efficiency. We saw a period of tax cuts, with government leverage rising and risk-free interest rates falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b650b0a8b2daf9e35e97e81de41ed089\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. 10-year US Treasury yields may rise over the next 10 years.</b></p><p>Trump's defeat and Biden's election marked the third shift in influence between the two parties since World War I. Therefore, the US government's leverage ratio will decline in the future, while the risk-free interest rate may rise. Because the United States is a nation of immigrants, there were baby boomers and echo baby boomers after World War II, and the growth rate of the labor force is expected to rebound slightly in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, the central level of 10-year US Treasury bonds may shift slightly upwards over the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad0a1f426cc9ee9f5a440ce463a3eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(II) US stock market style may be undergoing a long-term shift.</b></p><p><b>1. Technological decline; Core consumer pharmaceuticals outperform</b></p><p><b>A decline in U.S. bond yields is more beneficial to long-term assets.</b>Such changes will have a significant impact on the logic of US stocks. Technology stocks have benefited greatly over the past few decades because lower U.S. bond yields have been more beneficial to long-term assets. Both bull markets in the US stock market since the 1980s were technology bulls, that is, bull markets for long-term assets. This is because we use some logic to extrapolate what kind of stock price and valuation technology stocks might reach now, ten or twenty years from now.</p><p><b>The tech bull market is about to recede.</b>If we believe that the downward trend in 10-year US Treasury yields has ended, regardless of the rate of increase, and that US stock valuations (the S&P 500's 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E) are currently so high, theoretically the style of US stocks may change in the next 10 years. The tech bull market is about to recede.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d1bc515ce9d8674a55b722f8d74e55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors will perform well?</b>First, to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, \"down-to-earth\" assets are better, including core consumption, medicine and education, etc. Second, there should also be opportunities in those related to infrastructure and real estate.</p><p><b>2. The US stock-to-property ratio will decline over the next 10 years.</b></p><p><b>The US stock market and housing market have a rotation cycle of about 10 years, and the stock-to-housing ratio may decline in the next 10 years.</b>In addition, we will also find that there is a very interesting rotation between major asset classes in the US market, namely the rotation between US stocks and real estate. First, although we believe that the next 10 years will see a decline in technology stocks, there will still be US assets that perform well. However, the technology and financial sectors do now account for a relatively high proportion of US stocks, including the S&P 500, which means that if technology stocks decline, the index's performance will be relatively weak. Second, we have repeatedly emphasized that we are currently in the first half of a ten-year upward cycle for U.S. real estate. Third, the current stock-to-house ratio in the United States has reached the peak of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, which means that the next 10 years may be a downward cycle for the stock-to-house ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c8ebc264be68f04ddb392b1ad7964\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The decline in the stock-to-property ratio is beneficial to non-US markets.</b>The corresponding allocation logic behind this change is: globally, US stocks are considered a core asset class. During the rising phase of the US stock-to-property ratio, it is equivalent to global funds flocking to US stocks. For other markets, the opportunities may not be as great. At this time, US stocks should perform better than non-US markets. Conversely, a decline in the stock-to-property ratio most likely indicates that the funds are disbanding. Global funds will not be invested entirely in real estate in large quantities because it lacks liquidity. When funds disband in groups, they will seek opportunities in the United States and overseas markets, and non-US markets will have a significant impact.</p><p><b>Opportunities in non-US markets lie in A-shares.</b>There is another pattern in non-US markets. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong all proved the same pattern: as long as a country or region overcomes the middle-income trap and becomes a high-income country (region), its stock market can outperform the United States and lead the world in the following 10 years, or even 20 years for Japan at the time. The reasons are twofold: firstly, foreign capital will shift from underweight to standard or even overweight; and secondly, residents will relocate their assets.</p><p>If the opportunities in the stock market over the next 10 years lie in non-US stocks, then the opportunities in non-US stocks will lie in A-shares. We know that China will be able to overcome the middle-income trap around 2023-2024. In fact, China's economy has a large variance, and the per capita GDP of the Greater Bay Area has already surpassed that of the Greater Bay Area. Therefore, in the past few years, we have seen some overseas indices allocating some A-shares. I believe there are long-term opportunities in the A-share market over the next 10 years. In the short term, people may be concerned about the risks of the A-share market, but I believe it is a good thing in the long run. I hope everyone can be friends with time, and I wish everyone to become a winner in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/457857","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1128707770","content_text":"作者：张静静\n海外市场的近忧指的是未来1-2年的变化，比如美联储何时削减QE、什么时候加息；远虑并不是指我们对于长期形势的担忧、更多是对于5-10年前景的思考，包括海外资产风格的变化，还有美股风格的变化。\n第一部分：海外市场的近忧\n（一）由美国经济变化看海外疫后前景\n1. 海外各国疫后恢复错位\n先说近忧，最近海外经济看起来还可以，但是先看下面这张图，截止到上周末（截至3月27日）主要海外经济体完成疫苗接种的人口占比。释放了两个信号，第一个信号，总体形势好像和去年11月9日辉瑞宣布疫苗问世后大家的预期不太一样，即便是欧洲这样的经济体，和美国相比疫苗接种进展慢了很多，这个可以引发很多关于国际形势的思考，此处不过多展开。第二个信号，美国和英国作为可能最先摆脱疫情约束的国家，未来经济发展很有代表性。因此，我们可以从美国经济未来一些变化评估整个海外经济疫后前景，包括怎么看美国对中国出口的影响以及美联储货币政策何时收紧。\n\n2. 如何理解美国地产销售降温\n疫情即将结束，美国地产降温。我们去年认为当下美国10年地产上升周期只走到了前半程，但2月份美国二手房（成屋）和一手房（新屋）销售数据掉得很快。为什么我们去年认为美国地产处于十年上升周期？从影响经济体的地产的三个因素，城镇化过程、信用环境和人口来看，前两个因素在美国当下都算中性的，第三个因素我们参考购房年龄段人口（20-49岁）而非人口总数，该指标增速在2016年触底且同比转正，可以持续上升至2026年，这是我们判断的重要依据。并且去年美国地产确实创下14年以来销量新高，金额历史新高。\n\n\n疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。反思一下，去年美国地产好的有点异常，斜率非常陡峭。疫情确实带来购房成本下移，但去年参与到美国房地产的主要是中产和高净值群体，疫后美国地产销售热源于疫情触发美国改善性购房需求以及购房周期的缩短。各位在上海或者北京的购房周期起码在半年到一年以上，需要有一个工作之余的时间才可以看房。疫情之下购房周期被大大缩短了，凭借线上VR看房，可能半个月到一个月就完成了购房周期，因此我们才看到了去年美国地产销售非常强劲。\n\n低库存和购房周期重新被拉长必然约束年内美国地产销售。现在的情况是疫情下美国二手房即便房价上涨，库存跌到了2个月去库存时间，即按照一月份销售数据，两个月二手房就卖光了。没有库存自然会约束销售。新屋好像不受影响，因为会有新开工支持新屋供给。但随着疫情影响减弱，购房周期回归到正常的水平，我们确实看到了新屋去库存周期在反弹但仍然处于下限。\n地产开工取代销售称为年内地产亮点。美国地产销售数据确实有所回落，但跟疫前相比也还不错。此外，现在低库存、房价上涨、地产景气度高情况下，美国地产开发商将积极开工。所以和去年相比今年美国地产甚至经济环境里最重要的亮点不是销售，而是地产开工。\n\n3. 群体免疫将改变美国经济结构，亦影响中国出口结构\n美国的需求对中国形成了很大出口的拉动，如何理解去年至今美国的需求？\n美国的经济结构在疫情之后发生了扭曲。疫情之前，以个人消费为例，主要消费对象是服务，占到了7成。但该部分恢复与中国完全不一样，中国自去年二季度开始服务开始慢慢爬升，而美国去年8月份到今年2月份服务消费同比增速没有上升，可能只有群体免疫之后才会有一个质变。\n美国疫情之后财政一直在向居民进行转移支付，收入不降反升，且服务消费受到约束，肯定会使美国个人消费倾向朝其他方向转移，比如说耐用品的消费。同时去年二季度开始美国地产消费比较强劲，会带来两个直接的需求，一是地产后周期的家具家电，二是社交距离下买了郊区的房子后对汽车需求上升。以上因素叠加，我们看到去年二季度之后美国个人耐用品消费同比增速异常高，达到两位数，过去几十年都很罕见，这个也对中国对美国To C端出口形成很大的拉动。\n今年二季度末到三季度初美国耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降，中国对美To C端出口或将放缓。今年二季度末到三季度初美国需求结构会有一个很大的变化，就是耐用品的消费支出的同比增速会大幅下降。有三个原因：第一，如果财政对于美国的消费有影响的话，而第三轮的财政刺激一定是最后一轮，疫情都要结束了，你还有什么理由给大家发钱呢？第二，如果我们认为大概6-7月份，或者三季度初美国实现群体免疫，压抑了一年的服务类消费需求会有一个报复性脉冲并对耐用品消费需求形成挤出。第三，美国地产今年注定了销售会不像去年那么景气，可能也会抑制地产后周期以及汽车的消费需求。\n\n美国地产开工和资本开支是亮点，对中国To B端出口形成拉动。如果美国在耐用品或者整个商品消费需求是下降的，那自然对中国To C端出口拉动没有像去年那么友好，甚至有可能是放缓的。幸运的是美国经济仍有亮点，一是地产开工非常积极，2月份有寒潮数据不具代表性，3月份应该还可以；二是美国M1很高，企业和老百姓手上都非常有钱，去年压制了一年的资本开支诉求有望在群体免疫后迸发。地产开工加上资本开支意味着美国To B端需求非常强劲，在二季度末至三季度初对中国的出口结构会有影响：To C端下滑但To B端改善。\n（二）美联储或于Q3收紧货币\n1.  美联储或于Q3削减QE\n经济好似乎是好事情，为何又是近忧呢？因为经济好会给货币政策收紧一个理由。美国无论是居民还是企业手里都有钱，并且是自有资金，消费和投资对于无风险利率上升并不敏感。因此对于美联储来讲，当她需要收紧货币政策时也会毫不犹豫。三季度我们认为美联储大概率削减QE，有两个原因。\n第一，过去几十年10年期美债收益率和美国政府杠杆率长期负相关，这是因为美国可以财政赤字化，美国每一次QE无非是帮财政压一压国债的发行成本，如果第三轮财政刺激是最后一轮，而基建在加税情况下财政收支平衡，我们未来看不到美国赤字率再大幅上升了。货币政策可以不那么激进。\n第二，美联储前主席耶伦在2月7日和3月7日两次提及如果第三轮财政刺激落地，2022年可以看到美国实现充分就业。其讲话包含货币政策含义，意味着美国在明年下半年很可能会引导加息预期了。我们可以倒推，金融危机之后，加息之前需要先结束QE，结束QE之前要先削减QE。14年用了10个月时间削减，倒推起来今年三季度或开始削减QE。\n\n2.  明年中10Y美债或触及2.25%\n我们可以用利差倒推明年10年期美债可能到什么样的高点。做债的朋友一定知道，利率债有牛陡、熊陡、熊平和牛平这样的利差交易策略。美国非常规律，无论经济衰退和复苏原因是什么，10年期和2年期美债利差始终规律运行，从倒挂到2.5%以上，再到倒挂再到2.5%以上。从倒挂到利差峰值一定经历了一个牛陡再到熊陡，随后进入熊平。熊平也就是在引导加息预期或者加息周期中。结合耶伦的讲话，明年下半年之前，我们很有可能看到10年期和2年期利差峰值出现。\n由此可见，即便保守来看明年二三季度10年期与2年期美债收益率差值起码也会到2%以上。目前美国基准利率上限是0.25%，因此明年中10年期美债收益率会在2.25%略高一点的位置。也许那个阶段就有很多资金配置了，比如说1月份收益率升破1%以后中国和日本这种本来持有美债的大户又增配了美债，去年利率很低的时候一直再减持。总体来看，10年期美债收益率的上行趋势应该还没有结束，意味着好像美股后面还是有风险的。\n\n3.  Q3美股调整风险较大\n从定性、定量和日历效应三个因素看，美股4、5月份还有上涨空间，6-9月份下行概率和幅度会很大。\n第一，定性角度看。首先，去年以来每次美国宽财政的时候市场表现非常积极，甚至有散户开始叱诧风云，和美国人有时间、又有财政转移支付发的钱相关。第三轮财政刺激落地之后，理论上还会有一定的散户入场，市场参与度提高，风险偏好也会提高。此外，在第三轮财政刺激落地之后有一些涉及病毒检测和疫苗采购的部分开支，意味着美国会更接近群体免疫，经济向好预期也会有所帮助。最后，宽财政的时候美国政府很难会紧货币，短期2-3个月美国货币政策不会收紧，理论上4、5月份美国在定性上来看是可以上涨的。\n第二，从日历效应看。美股日历效应非常有规律，一般11、12、4、5月表现的不错，12个月中最差的就是6-9月份。\n第三，定量角度看。我们有一个四因子模型。简单说一下，你会发现美股不仅受美国经济影响，也会受海外经济影响，因为美国跨国公司很多，整个企业在境外的盈利占比达到三成，美国经济好不足以支持股市表现，因此美国经济和海外经济是我们考虑的第一个和第二个因素。第三个因素是美股结构，它和美国经济结构的差异，但这是一个慢变量就先不考虑了。第四个因素是无风险利率，第五个是风险溢价。剔除美股结构后，我们得到美股四因子模型，将四个因素建模我们回顾发现对美股拟合还可以。拟合结果和实际值的比较显示美股还没有超涨的信号，并且我们的结果显示4、5月份还会涨一涨。\n\n6月份往后看，美股调整压力非常大。从日历效应和四因子模型来看是如此，从定性角度来讲，6、7月份如果美国可以实现群体免疫，从图1可以看出全球群体免疫是错位的，和疫情问世时的预期是不一样的，群体免疫的时候需求的一些瑕疵会曝露出来，即此前的预期过于乐观了。再加上只要三季度美联储会去削减QE，10年期美债收益率在年内到2%，且大概率由实际利率驱动，这个时候美股下跌压力会比较大。\n拜登上任初期或寻求释放美股风险。进一步看，美股历年涨多跌少，但是下跌非常有规律，集中在每一个总统上任前两年。有一定有经济因素，因为上任前两年政策红利还没有释放出来，且经济刚经历衰退。但不否认有其他因素，美股是总统的成绩单，总统希望执政的中期有一个很漂亮的成绩单。美股风险什么时候释放呢？可能上任初期释放会比较好。\n\n加税+基建组合拳是金融危机后美股牛市逻辑的终结者。最近美国一直在提要加税和基建。其实这个财年根本没有机会落地了，但为什么一直要释放这样的信号？加税叠加基建，相当于是金融危机后美国牛市逻辑的终结者，因为金融危机后美国牛市无非是科技牛，赖以生存的宏观环境就是低通胀、低利率、再加上部分的美股回购。加税削弱EPS和美股回购逻辑，基建一定程度上配合美国的地产和其他一些因素，可能对于通胀预期有一些提振。本来只做基建的话，大家会认为后面美国财政赤字还会很高，货币政策还会宽松。但是配合加税下财政平衡，超宽松的货币政策可能不复存在了。整体来看，今年美股调整压力是比较大的。\n第二部分：海外市场的远虑\n（一）两因素看美债长期走势\n1.  10Y美债的长期定价因素\n以上是我们的近忧，我们看一下远虑，不是担忧而是我们的一些思考。\n美债收益率受经济因素与非经济因素影响。一方面大家知道美债他是一个特殊的利率债，如果讲中国的国债主要还是由中国的经济基本面影响的话，美债具有一些配置价值和避险价值，有非经济因素影响。经济因素方面，长期趋势一定和人口有关的，大体来看10年期美债走势和美国的劳动力人口增速是同趋势的。非经济因素是财政赤字货币化，美国政府杠杆率上行下无风险利率一定要下行，否则美国会面临债务问题。\n社会结构及财政政策驱动非经济变量。是不是美国政府杠杆率下行阶段，无风险利率一定要上行呢？虽然没有因果关系，但是可以想一个问题，美国过去几十年无风险利率和政府杠杆率为什么有的时候上行、有的时候下行。这和美国社会结构有很大关系。美国是两党轮流执政，但不是每次轮流执证就意味着两党的影响力在交替。包括2020年美国大选这一次，一战之后只有三次两党执政影响力的交替。民主党代表大政府，如果大家比较推崇民主党，即社会在呼吁公平；共和党代表小政府，是追求效率的，推崇共和党意味着整个社会是推崇效率的。\n在大萧条的时候，1933年罗斯福当选是一个节点，当时美国社会结构扭曲，中产占比很低，社会开始推崇民主党。如何实现公平呢？可以把他比作一个龟兔赛跑的游戏，缩小贫富差距应该在游戏规则里面去阻止兔子跑得快，一是加税，通过二次分配方式“劫富济贫”；二是适度上调无风险利率，低无风险利率有利于财富净值上涨，但对于低收入人群难有正贡献。\n到了80年代，美国社会结构优化得很好了，经历了70年代两次石油危机持续高失业率之后社会开始排斥民主党的公平性政策，反而对于共和党的效率性政策比较推崇。所以80年以里根当选为标志性事件，美国进入到了共和党影响力上升追求效率的阶段。我们看到减税期，政府杠杆率上升，无风险利率下降。\n\n2.  未来10年10年期美债收益率或走高\n特朗普败选和拜登当选就是一战之后的第三次两党影响力的交替。所以未来美国政府杠杆率会下降，无风险利率可以上升。美国因为是一个移民国家，二战之后还有婴儿潮和回声婴儿潮，未来10-20年劳动力人口增速会反弹一点。所以10年期美债中枢在未来10年可能是小幅上移的。\n\n（二）美股风格或迎长期切换\n1.  科技退潮；核心消费医药跑赢\n美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产。这样的变化会对美股逻辑有很大的影响。在过去几十年，科技股一直很受益，是因为美国债券收益率下移比较利好长久期资产的。80年代后美股两次牛市都是科技牛，即长久期资产的牛市，因为对于科技股我们是用未来十年二十年之后的一些逻辑反推现在可能它可以达到什么样的股价和估值。\n科技牛即将退潮。如果我们认为10年期美债收益率下行趋势结束了，无论其上行幅度是怎样的，且现在美股估值（标普500指数10年席勒周期调整市盈率）又这么高，理论上美股风格在未来10年可能有变化。科技牛就要退潮。\n\n哪些板块会表现不错呢？第一，要缩小贫富差距，“接地气”资产会比较好，包括核心消费、医药和教育等等。第二，和基建以及地产相关的也应该有机会。\n2.  未来10年美国股房比回落\n美国股市与房市存在大约10年的轮动周期，未来10年股房比或回落。此外，我们还会发现美国的市场还有一个很有意思的大类资产之间的轮动，即美股和房地产之间的轮动。第一，虽然我们认为后面的10年是科技股退潮，还是会有表现不错的美国资产。但现在科技及金融行业确实是在美股包括标普500指数当中占比权重比较高，这意味着如果科技股退潮，指数表现是相对有点疲弱的。第二，我们反复强调现在位于美国地产十年上升周期的前半程。第三，美国现在的股房比到了纳斯达克泡沫破灭的高点，意味着可能未来的10年是股房比的下降周期。\n\n股房比回落利好非美市场。这一变化背后对应配置逻辑是：全球来讲美股算一类核心资产，在美国股房比上升阶段，相当于全球资金在抱团美股，对于其他的市场来讲，可能机会相对就不那么大，这个时候美股的表现应该比非美的市场好一些。反过来，股房比的下降大概率说明资金抱团在解散。全球的资金不会大量全部投进房地产，因为不具备流动性。资金抱团性解散的时候，资金会去美国海外找机会，非美的市场会有表现力。\n非美市场的机会在A股。非美市场中还有一条规律，无论是当年的日本、韩国以及中国香港地区，都证明了同一个规律，只要一个国家或者一个地区跨过了中等收入国家陷阱成为一个高收入国家（地区）的时候，随后的10年甚至日本当时是20年，股市可以跑赢美国，领跑全球。原因一方面是外资会从低配到标配甚至超配，一方面是居民资产搬家。\n未来10年如果股市的机会在非美，那么非美的机会在A股。我们知道大概2023-2024年中国是可以跨过中等收入国家陷阱的。其实中国经济方差很大，大湾区人均GDP已经跨过去了，因此此前若干年我们看到一些海外指数已经在配置一些A股。我相信未来10年A股是有长期机会。短期大家可能会纠结于A股市场的风险，我相信长期是不错的。希望大家可以做时间的朋友，预祝大家成为市场的赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}