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2021-06-15
Sad sad sad
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2021-03-30
Sad day today
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2021-03-24
My dear......
探索61
2021-03-07
pooooook gai v2.0
探索61
2021-03-02
All to Moooon
探索61
2021-06-14
Very sad
探索61
2021-02-26
All is good
探索61
2021-02-24
Go go go
探索61
2021-03-03
Gooooooooo
探索61
2021-05-05
How to share on Wechat and earn coin
探索61
2021-05-03
Hope today will be good
探索61
2021-03-27
Be happy, be smile
探索61
2021-03-22
Errrrrrrrr
探索61
2021-03-08
Pok gai v3.0
探索61
2021-03-06
FUNNY
探索61
2021-03-04
POK GAI
探索61
2021-03-26
Hmmmm. Today the market is interesting
探索61
2021-03-25
See how US market goes today. Hope will not be that bad
探索61
2021-03-21
Lalallalalal
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13:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"让巴菲特多次栽跟头的陷阱,小心了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187811778","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。1988年买入US Air,割肉离场;2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业,比如航空”;2013年说“对投资者来说,航空业是致命陷阱”;不料20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。</p><p>1988年买入US Air,割肉离场;2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业,比如航空”;2013年说“对投资者来说,航空业是致命陷阱”;不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票,还声称“看不出哪家更突出”;2020年2月,航空业风雨飘摇之际,巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售,却在5月初“割肉”,损失惨重。</p><p>数十年来,航空业经历无数“洗礼”,活下来的没有泛泛之辈,客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去,在航空业的至暗时刻买入,静待复苏,这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。</p><p>受疫情影响,2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%;全年客运量2.5亿人次,为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">中国国航</a>(60111.SH)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">东方航空</a>(600115.SH)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">南方航空</a>(600029.SH)同时发布《年度业务预告》,国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿,东航预计亏损368亿~398亿,南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。</p><p>2020年以来,三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿,平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。</p><p>将近2000亿亏损,钱去哪儿了?哪家韧性更强?“逆境反转”是否值得一博?</p><p><b>“三足鼎立”局面被打破</b></p><p><b>1)营收差距拉大</b></p><p>2019年,三大航空营收均创历史新高:南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。</p><p>疫情影响下,“三大航空”出现分化:</p><p>南航韧性最强,2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%;2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%;</p><p>国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙:2020年营收跌至2019年的50%;2021年回升到2019年的55%;2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2019年,国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%;2022年前三季,国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破,疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。</p><p><b>2)赚6年“架不住”亏1年</b></p><p>民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”,年利润不过几十亿,亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例,2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿,2022年亏损不低于372亿,6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。</p><p>相对而言,国航盈利能力算是最强的:2017年扣非净利润72亿,2018年66亿,2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后,国航亏损逐年加大:2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。</p><p>东航盈利滑坡最明显:峰值在2017年,扣非净利润45亿;2018年大幅降至19亿;2019年,疫情尚未出现,东航已经亏损5.9亿;2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿,与国航相当。</p><p>南航相对稳健:2017年扣非净利润52亿,2022年亏损不超过340亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>拉长时间尺度,表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年,六年扣非净利润合计355亿;疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年,8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期,南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。</p><p><b>航空股也呈周期性,目前所处的完整周期内,总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。</b></p><p><b>3)经营活动现金流“失守”</b></p><p>2020年疫情爆发,三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“,国航、东航一直守到2021年。</p><p>2021年,国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿,经营活动现流入净额却保持正值,分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”,经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高,国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>南航经营活动现金流一直为正,2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿,相当于营收的10.4%。</p><p>航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去,2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。</p><p><b>4)运力投放基于预判、代表信心</b></p><p>如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判,航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。</p><p>2019年,航空客运“如火如荼”,三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里(ASK)达3440亿客公里,国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。</p><p>2020年,形势急转直下,三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”,运营投放与2020年持平,南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 、1520亿客公里、1610亿客公里。</p><p>2022年H1,三大航空出现分化。国航、东航有些“输不起”,南航信心“坚挺”。上半年国航可用客座公里440亿、仅为2019年H1的31%。东航可用客座公里为2019年同期的34%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>南航可用客座公里达750亿、约为2019年H1的66%,说明对复苏的信心高于友商。</p><p><b>5)客座率生死攸关</b></p><p>疫情开始前,三大航空客座率都保持在80%以上,其中南航领先1~2个百分点。</p><p>2020年,三大航空客座率普遍下降10个百分点,全部陷入亏损。</p><p>2022年H1出现分化,南航运力投放增至疫情前的三分之二,客座率仍然领先;国航、东航运力投放大幅减少、仍无法阻止客座率下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>客座率差距10个百分点,三大航空毛利润率有天壤之别。</p><p>疫情前,三大航空毛利润率约为12%,毛利润金额国航保持领先。</p><p>2015~2019年,国航毛利润连续5年高于200亿。2019年为229亿,同期南航、东航毛利润分别为187亿、137亿。</p><p>疫情出现后,2020年、2021年,国航、东航毛利润率都低于负20%,2022年H1暴跌至负75%。南航相对没有那么夸张:2020年、2021年,毛利润率负3%,2022年H1为负21%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>从成本、费用,论“三大”短长</b></p><p>成本结构揭示了三大航空毛利润下降的根源:</p><p>2019年,三大航空公司油料成本约为营收的28%;薪酬、折旧、机场费用各占营收的六分之一;</p><p>2020年客座率下降,但低迷的油多少缓解了航司的困境,油料占营收的比例不升反降。由于三大航空有自己的“主场”,机场起降费用占营收的比例基本没有变化。但薪酬、折旧“刚性”十足,两项成本占营收的比例翻了一倍。</p><p>2022年H1,客座率进一步下降,国际油价飙升……诸多不利因素齐至,国航油料成本占营收的43%、折旧占42%、薪酬占37%,只有机场费用占比维持在13%。东航的情况比国航更糟,南航则表现出强大的韧性——油料占比较国航低8个百分点、薪酬低13个百分点、折旧低14个百分点……</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>与各项成本占营收比例相似,在疫情影响下销售、管理、财务三项费用占营收的比例也大幅提高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在营收、现金流、运力、客座率等所有维度,南航都显著优于国航、东航。如果行业从疫情中复苏后,南航优势依然明显,可以断定“三足鼎立”的格局被打破。</p><p>但是,如果在二级市场博“逆境反转”,韧性最强的南航未必是最佳标的,“招牌”靓丽的国航、“最惨”的东航股价表现有可能优于南航。</p><p>被称为“周期之王”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">中远海控</a>(601919.SH),2014年~2022年前三季,扣非净利润累计超过1850亿!而且造成亏损的散货运输业务已于2016年剥离。假如周期为十年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">中远海控</a>总利润远超1000亿。</p><p>从“全周期净盈利”和估值来看,航空股投资价值不如集装箱运输(中远海控与国航市值均为1700亿)。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>让巴菲特多次栽跟头的陷阱,小心了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n让巴菲特多次栽跟头的陷阱,小心了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-01 13:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。</p><p>1988年买入US Air,割肉离场;2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业,比如航空”;2013年说“对投资者来说,航空业是致命陷阱”;不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票,还声称“看不出哪家更突出”;2020年2月,航空业风雨飘摇之际,巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售,却在5月初“割肉”,损失惨重。</p><p>数十年来,航空业经历无数“洗礼”,活下来的没有泛泛之辈,客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去,在航空业的至暗时刻买入,静待复苏,这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。</p><p>受疫情影响,2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%;全年客运量2.5亿人次,为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">中国国航</a>(60111.SH)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">东方航空</a>(600115.SH)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">南方航空</a>(600029.SH)同时发布《年度业务预告》,国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿,东航预计亏损368亿~398亿,南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。</p><p>2020年以来,三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿,平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。</p><p>将近2000亿亏损,钱去哪儿了?哪家韧性更强?“逆境反转”是否值得一博?</p><p><b>“三足鼎立”局面被打破</b></p><p><b>1)营收差距拉大</b></p><p>2019年,三大航空营收均创历史新高:南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。</p><p>疫情影响下,“三大航空”出现分化:</p><p>南航韧性最强,2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%;2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%;</p><p>国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙:2020年营收跌至2019年的50%;2021年回升到2019年的55%;2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2019年,国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%;2022年前三季,国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破,疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。</p><p><b>2)赚6年“架不住”亏1年</b></p><p>民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”,年利润不过几十亿,亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例,2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿,2022年亏损不低于372亿,6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。</p><p>相对而言,国航盈利能力算是最强的:2017年扣非净利润72亿,2018年66亿,2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后,国航亏损逐年加大:2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。</p><p>东航盈利滑坡最明显:峰值在2017年,扣非净利润45亿;2018年大幅降至19亿;2019年,疫情尚未出现,东航已经亏损5.9亿;2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿,与国航相当。</p><p>南航相对稳健:2017年扣非净利润52亿,2022年亏损不超过340亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>拉长时间尺度,表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年,六年扣非净利润合计355亿;疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年,8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期,南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。</p><p><b>航空股也呈周期性,目前所处的完整周期内,总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。</b></p><p><b>3)经营活动现金流“失守”</b></p><p>2020年疫情爆发,三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“,国航、东航一直守到2021年。</p><p>2021年,国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿,经营活动现流入净额却保持正值,分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”,经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高,国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>南航经营活动现金流一直为正,2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿,相当于营收的10.4%。</p><p>航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去,2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。</p><p><b>4)运力投放基于预判、代表信心</b></p><p>如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判,航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。</p><p>2019年,航空客运“如火如荼”,三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里(ASK)达3440亿客公里,国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。</p><p>2020年,形势急转直下,三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”,运营投放与2020年持平,南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 、1520亿客公里、1610亿客公里。</p><p>2022年H1,三大航空出现分化。国航、东航有些“输不起”,南航信心“坚挺”。上半年国航可用客座公里440亿、仅为2019年H1的31%。东航可用客座公里为2019年同期的34%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>南航可用客座公里达750亿、约为2019年H1的66%,说明对复苏的信心高于友商。</p><p><b>5)客座率生死攸关</b></p><p>疫情开始前,三大航空客座率都保持在80%以上,其中南航领先1~2个百分点。</p><p>2020年,三大航空客座率普遍下降10个百分点,全部陷入亏损。</p><p>2022年H1出现分化,南航运力投放增至疫情前的三分之二,客座率仍然领先;国航、东航运力投放大幅减少、仍无法阻止客座率下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>客座率差距10个百分点,三大航空毛利润率有天壤之别。</p><p>疫情前,三大航空毛利润率约为12%,毛利润金额国航保持领先。</p><p>2015~2019年,国航毛利润连续5年高于200亿。2019年为229亿,同期南航、东航毛利润分别为187亿、137亿。</p><p>疫情出现后,2020年、2021年,国航、东航毛利润率都低于负20%,2022年H1暴跌至负75%。南航相对没有那么夸张:2020年、2021年,毛利润率负3%,2022年H1为负21%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>从成本、费用,论“三大”短长</b></p><p>成本结构揭示了三大航空毛利润下降的根源:</p><p>2019年,三大航空公司油料成本约为营收的28%;薪酬、折旧、机场费用各占营收的六分之一;</p><p>2020年客座率下降,但低迷的油多少缓解了航司的困境,油料占营收的比例不升反降。由于三大航空有自己的“主场”,机场起降费用占营收的比例基本没有变化。但薪酬、折旧“刚性”十足,两项成本占营收的比例翻了一倍。</p><p>2022年H1,客座率进一步下降,国际油价飙升……诸多不利因素齐至,国航油料成本占营收的43%、折旧占42%、薪酬占37%,只有机场费用占比维持在13%。东航的情况比国航更糟,南航则表现出强大的韧性——油料占比较国航低8个百分点、薪酬低13个百分点、折旧低14个百分点……</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>与各项成本占营收比例相似,在疫情影响下销售、管理、财务三项费用占营收的比例也大幅提高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在营收、现金流、运力、客座率等所有维度,南航都显著优于国航、东航。如果行业从疫情中复苏后,南航优势依然明显,可以断定“三足鼎立”的格局被打破。</p><p>但是,如果在二级市场博“逆境反转”,韧性最强的南航未必是最佳标的,“招牌”靓丽的国航、“最惨”的东航股价表现有可能优于南航。</p><p>被称为“周期之王”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">中远海控</a>(601919.SH),2014年~2022年前三季,扣非净利润累计超过1850亿!而且造成亏损的散货运输业务已于2016年剥离。假如周期为十年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">中远海控</a>总利润远超1000亿。</p><p>从“全周期净盈利”和估值来看,航空股投资价值不如集装箱运输(中远海控与国航市值均为1700亿)。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5b688e580614406d82926376bf229c","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc 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Air,割肉离场;2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业,比如航空”;2013年说“对投资者来说,航空业是致命陷阱”;不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票,还声称“看不出哪家更突出”;2020年2月,航空业风雨飘摇之际,巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售,却在5月初“割肉”,损失惨重。数十年来,航空业经历无数“洗礼”,活下来的没有泛泛之辈,客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去,在航空业的至暗时刻买入,静待复苏,这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。受疫情影响,2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%;全年客运量2.5亿人次,为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日,中国国航(60111.SH)、东方航空(600115.SH)和南方航空(600029.SH)同时发布《年度业务预告》,国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿,东航预计亏损368亿~398亿,南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。2020年以来,三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿,平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。将近2000亿亏损,钱去哪儿了?哪家韧性更强?“逆境反转”是否值得一博?“三足鼎立”局面被打破1)营收差距拉大2019年,三大航空营收均创历史新高:南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。疫情影响下,“三大航空”出现分化:南航韧性最强,2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%;2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%;国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙:2020年营收跌至2019年的50%;2021年回升到2019年的55%;2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。2019年,国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%;2022年前三季,国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破,疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。2)赚6年“架不住”亏1年民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”,年利润不过几十亿,亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例,2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿,2022年亏损不低于372亿,6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。相对而言,国航盈利能力算是最强的:2017年扣非净利润72亿,2018年66亿,2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后,国航亏损逐年加大:2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。东航盈利滑坡最明显:峰值在2017年,扣非净利润45亿;2018年大幅降至19亿;2019年,疫情尚未出现,东航已经亏损5.9亿;2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿,与国航相当。南航相对稳健:2017年扣非净利润52亿,2022年亏损不超过340亿。拉长时间尺度,表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年,六年扣非净利润合计355亿;疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年,8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期,南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。航空股也呈周期性,目前所处的完整周期内,总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。3)经营活动现金流“失守”2020年疫情爆发,三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“,国航、东航一直守到2021年。2021年,国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿,经营活动现流入净额却保持正值,分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”,经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高,国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。南航经营活动现金流一直为正,2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿,相当于营收的10.4%。航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去,2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。4)运力投放基于预判、代表信心如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判,航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。2019年,航空客运“如火如荼”,三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里(ASK)达3440亿客公里,国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。2020年,形势急转直下,三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”,运营投放与2020年持平,南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 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