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2023-03-02

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The trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful

2021-06-15

Sad sad sad

2021-06-14

Very sad

2021-05-05

How to share on Wechat and earn coin

2021-05-03

Hope today will be good

2021-03-30

Sad day today

2021-03-27

Be happy, be smile

2021-03-26

Hmmmm. Today the market is interesting

2021-03-25

See how US market goes today. Hope will not be that bad

2021-03-24

My dear......

2021-03-22

Errrrrrrrr

2021-03-21

Lalallalalal

2021-03-12

Pookgai

2021-03-08

Pok gai v3.0

2021-03-07

pooooook gai v2.0

2021-03-06

FUNNY

2021-03-04

POK GAI

2021-03-03

Gooooooooo

2021-03-02

All to Moooon

2021-02-26

All is good

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13:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187811778","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。1988年买入US Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料20","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has been planted on airline stocks more than once.</p><p>In 1988, he bought US Air and left the market; In 2007, Buffett introspectively said that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money, such as aviation\"; Said in 2013 that \"for investors, the aviation industry is the deadly trap\"; Unexpectedly, in 2016, he bought the stocks of the four major airlines in the United States, and claimed that \"I can't see which one is more prominent\"; In February 2020, when the aviation industry was on the rocks, Buffett bought a lot of airline shares and vowed not to sell, only to \"cut the meat\" in early May and suffer heavy losses.</p><p>Over the past decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms\", and no ordinary people have survived. passenger load factor has remained at a high level, cost control ability is strong, and cash flow is good. The epidemic will always pass. Buying at the darkest moment of the aviation industry and waiting for recovery is a temptation that even the \"stock god\" can't resist.</p><p>Affected by the pandemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 was only 46.3% of that in 2019; Passenger traffic for the year was 250 million, 38.1% of 2019. January 31, 2023,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111.SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115.SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029.SH) at the same time released the \"Annual Business Forecast\". Air China deducts non-losses of 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion yuan annually, China Eastern Airlines is expected to lose 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion yuan, and China Southern Airlines is expected to lose 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion yuan. The three major airlines lost 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the non-net losses of the three major airlines have accumulated 187.2 billion to 196.1 billion, with an average of 64 billion each. A-share \"loss king\" is none other than the three major airlines.</p><p>With nearly 200 billion losses, where did the money go? Which is more resilient? Is \"Adversity Reversal\" worth a gamble?</p><p><b>The situation of \"three pillars\" was broken</b></p><p><b>1) Widening revenue gap</b></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of the three major airlines all reached a record high: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion, Air China ranked second with 136.2 billion, and China Eastern Airlines ranked bottom with 120.9 billion.</p><p>Under the influence of the epidemic, the \"three major airlines\" have differentiated:</p><p>China Southern Airlines has the strongest resilience, with its revenue in 2021 still exceeding 100 billion yuan, equivalent to 66% of 2019; Revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 70.2 billion, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>The trajectories of Air China and China Eastern Airlines are exactly the same: the revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; It rose back to 55% in 2019 in 2021; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of Air China and China Eastern Airlines was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of China Southern Airlines, respectively; In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines, respectively. The \"three-legged\" situation has been temporarily broken, and whether the balance can be restored after the epidemic deserves attention.</p><p><b>2) Earn 6 years \"can't stand\" and lose 1 year</b></p><p>The loss of the civil aviation industry can be described as a \"bottomless pit\", with annual profits of only a few billions and losses of tens of billions. Take Air China as an example. From 2014 to 2020, the total non-net profit deducted was 35.5 billion yuan, and the loss in 2022 was no less than 37.2 billion yuan. The money earned in six years was less than the loss in one year.</p><p>Relatively speaking, Air China's profitability is the strongest: 7.2 billion non-net profits were deducted in 2017, 6.6 billion in 2018, and it fell to 6.2 billion in 2019. After the beginning of the epidemic, Air China's losses increased year by year: 14.7 billion in 2020, 17.1 billion in 2021 and more than 37 billion in 2022.</p><p>China Eastern Airlines' profit decline is the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, deducting non-net profit of 4.5 billion; It fell sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, the epidemic has not yet appeared, and China Eastern Airlines has lost 590 million; The loss in 2020 was 12.7 billion, the loss in 2021 was 13.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 was about 37 billion, which is equivalent to that of Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: 5.2 billion non-net profit was deducted in 2017, and the loss in 2022 will not exceed 34 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Lengthen the time scale, and Air China performs best. From 2014 to 2019, the six-year non-net profit totaled 35.5 billion; Losses since the pandemic have not exceeded 71.7 billion. From 2014 to 2022, the net loss of profit and loss in eight years was 36 billion. In the same period, China Southern Airlines had a net loss of 40 billion yuan and China Eastern Airlines had a net loss of 55 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Airlines stocks are also cyclical, and in the full cycle at present, the total profit will be far less than the total loss.</b></p><p><b>3) \"Loss\" of cash flow from operating activities</b></p><p>When the epidemic broke out in 2020, the three major airlines all fell into huge losses. However, the \"line of defense\" of cash flow from operating activities has been kept by Air China and China Eastern Airlines until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern suffered losses of 17.1 billion and 13.5 billion, respectively, while the net cash inflow from operating activities remained positive at 12.9 billion and 5.7 billion, respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines finally \"broke\", with cash flows from operating activities of negative 4.9 billion and negative 260 million respectively. Fortunately, the proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China being 11.6% and China Eastern Airlines only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' cash flow from operating activities has been positive, with a loss of 12.6 billion and a positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion in 2021. Loss of 18.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2022 and positive operating cash flow of 7.3 billion, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult time for the aviation industry has passed, and the cash flow of the three major aviation operating activities in 2023 is likely to \"turn positive\".</p><p><b>4) Transportation capacity investment is based on prediction and represents confidence</b></p><p>If the land reserve reflects the developer's prediction of the market, the airline capacity is based on the expectation of the industry's prosperity. In the future, flight sorties, personnel arrangements, flight increases and decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was in full swing, and the investment in three major aviation operations reached its peak. Among them, the available passenger kilometers (ASK) of China Southern Airlines reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while those of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, and all the three major air transportation capacities were cut in half. The theme of 2021 is \"wait and see\", and the operational investment is the same as that of 2020. China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines are 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers and 161 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In H1 2022, the three major airlines differentiated. Air China and China Eastern Airlines are somewhat \"unable to afford to lose\", while China Southern Airlines has \"strong\" confidence. In the first half of the year, Air China's available passenger kilometers were 44 billion, only 31% of that in H1 2019. Available passenger kilometers of China Eastern were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers reached 75 billion, about 66% of H1 2019, indicating that it is more confident in recovery than its friends.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is at stake</b></p><p>Before the beginning of the epidemic, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1~2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the three major aviation passenger load factor generally declined by 10 percentage points, and all fell into the red.</p><p>In H1 2022, there was a differentiation, with China Southern's capacity increasing to two-thirds of the pre-pandemic level, and passenger load factor still leading; The capacity of Air China and China Eastern Airlines has been greatly reduced, but it still can't stop the decline of passenger load factor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>passenger load factor differs by 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are vastly different.</p><p>Before the pandemic, the gross profit margin of the three major airlines was about 12%, and Air China maintained the lead in gross profit amount.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit exceeded 20 billion for five consecutive years. In 2019, the gross profit of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines was 18.7 billion and 13.7 billion, respectively.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were below minus 20% in 2020 and 2021, and plummeted to minus 75% in H1 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margin was negative 3%, and in H1 2022, it was negative 21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the short and long of \"three big\" from the perspective of cost and expense</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root causes of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, the fuel costs of the three major airlines were approximately 28% of revenue; Compensation, depreciation and airport fees each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>Passenger occupancy rate declined in 2020, but sluggish oil somewhat alleviated the plight of airlines, and the proportion of oil in revenue declined instead of rising. As the three major airlines have their own \"home fields\", the proportion of airport take-off and landing costs in revenue has basically remained unchanged. However, salary and depreciation are \"rigid\", and the proportion of the two costs in revenue has doubled.</p><p>In H1 2022, passenger load factor further declined, and international oil prices soared... Many unfavorable factors came together. Air China's fuel cost accounted for 43% of revenue, depreciation accounted for 42%, salary accounted for 37%, and only airport expenses accounted for 13%. The situation of China Eastern Airlines is worse than that of Air China, while China Southern Airlines shows strong resilience-the proportion of oil is 8 percentage points lower than that of Air China, the salary is 13 percentage points lower, and the depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, under the influence of the epidemic, the proportion of sales, management and finance expenses to revenue also increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines is significantly better than Air China and China Eastern Airlines in all dimensions such as revenue, cash flow, capacity and passenger load factor. If the industry recovers from the epidemic, the advantages of China Southern Airlines are still obvious, and it can be concluded that the \"three-legged\" pattern has been broken.</p><p>However, if there is a \"reversal of adversity\" in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which has the strongest resilience, may not be the best target, and the share price of Air China, which has a beautiful \"signature\", and China Eastern Airlines, which has the \"worst\", may outperform China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"King of Cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holdings</a>(601919.SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, the accumulated non-net profit after deduction exceeded 185 billion! Moreover, the loss-making bulk cargo transportation business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holdings</a>Total profits well over 100 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, the investment value of aviation stocks is not as good as that of container transportation (both COSCO Shipping Holdings and Air China have a market value of 170 billion).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-01 13:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has been planted on airline stocks more than once.</p><p>In 1988, he bought US Air and left the market; In 2007, Buffett introspectively said that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money, such as aviation\"; Said in 2013 that \"for investors, the aviation industry is the deadly trap\"; Unexpectedly, in 2016, he bought the stocks of the four major airlines in the United States, and claimed that \"I can't see which one is more prominent\"; In February 2020, when the aviation industry was on the rocks, Buffett bought a lot of airline shares and vowed not to sell, only to \"cut the meat\" in early May and suffer heavy losses.</p><p>Over the past decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms\", and no ordinary people have survived. passenger load factor has remained at a high level, cost control ability is strong, and cash flow is good. The epidemic will always pass. Buying at the darkest moment of the aviation industry and waiting for recovery is a temptation that even the \"stock god\" can't resist.</p><p>Affected by the pandemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 was only 46.3% of that in 2019; Passenger traffic for the year was 250 million, 38.1% of 2019. January 31, 2023,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111.SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115.SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029.SH) at the same time released the \"Annual Business Forecast\". Air China deducts non-losses of 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion yuan annually, China Eastern Airlines is expected to lose 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion yuan, and China Southern Airlines is expected to lose 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion yuan. The three major airlines lost 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the non-net losses of the three major airlines have accumulated 187.2 billion to 196.1 billion, with an average of 64 billion each. A-share \"loss king\" is none other than the three major airlines.</p><p>With nearly 200 billion losses, where did the money go? Which is more resilient? Is \"Adversity Reversal\" worth a gamble?</p><p><b>The situation of \"three pillars\" was broken</b></p><p><b>1) Widening revenue gap</b></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of the three major airlines all reached a record high: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion, Air China ranked second with 136.2 billion, and China Eastern Airlines ranked bottom with 120.9 billion.</p><p>Under the influence of the epidemic, the \"three major airlines\" have differentiated:</p><p>China Southern Airlines has the strongest resilience, with its revenue in 2021 still exceeding 100 billion yuan, equivalent to 66% of 2019; Revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 70.2 billion, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>The trajectories of Air China and China Eastern Airlines are exactly the same: the revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; It rose back to 55% in 2019 in 2021; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of Air China and China Eastern Airlines was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of China Southern Airlines, respectively; In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines, respectively. The \"three-legged\" situation has been temporarily broken, and whether the balance can be restored after the epidemic deserves attention.</p><p><b>2) Earn 6 years \"can't stand\" and lose 1 year</b></p><p>The loss of the civil aviation industry can be described as a \"bottomless pit\", with annual profits of only a few billions and losses of tens of billions. Take Air China as an example. From 2014 to 2020, the total non-net profit deducted was 35.5 billion yuan, and the loss in 2022 was no less than 37.2 billion yuan. The money earned in six years was less than the loss in one year.</p><p>Relatively speaking, Air China's profitability is the strongest: 7.2 billion non-net profits were deducted in 2017, 6.6 billion in 2018, and it fell to 6.2 billion in 2019. After the beginning of the epidemic, Air China's losses increased year by year: 14.7 billion in 2020, 17.1 billion in 2021 and more than 37 billion in 2022.</p><p>China Eastern Airlines' profit decline is the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, deducting non-net profit of 4.5 billion; It fell sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, the epidemic has not yet appeared, and China Eastern Airlines has lost 590 million; The loss in 2020 was 12.7 billion, the loss in 2021 was 13.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 was about 37 billion, which is equivalent to that of Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: 5.2 billion non-net profit was deducted in 2017, and the loss in 2022 will not exceed 34 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Lengthen the time scale, and Air China performs best. From 2014 to 2019, the six-year non-net profit totaled 35.5 billion; Losses since the pandemic have not exceeded 71.7 billion. From 2014 to 2022, the net loss of profit and loss in eight years was 36 billion. In the same period, China Southern Airlines had a net loss of 40 billion yuan and China Eastern Airlines had a net loss of 55 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Airlines stocks are also cyclical, and in the full cycle at present, the total profit will be far less than the total loss.</b></p><p><b>3) \"Loss\" of cash flow from operating activities</b></p><p>When the epidemic broke out in 2020, the three major airlines all fell into huge losses. However, the \"line of defense\" of cash flow from operating activities has been kept by Air China and China Eastern Airlines until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern suffered losses of 17.1 billion and 13.5 billion, respectively, while the net cash inflow from operating activities remained positive at 12.9 billion and 5.7 billion, respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines finally \"broke\", with cash flows from operating activities of negative 4.9 billion and negative 260 million respectively. Fortunately, the proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China being 11.6% and China Eastern Airlines only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' cash flow from operating activities has been positive, with a loss of 12.6 billion and a positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion in 2021. Loss of 18.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2022 and positive operating cash flow of 7.3 billion, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult time for the aviation industry has passed, and the cash flow of the three major aviation operating activities in 2023 is likely to \"turn positive\".</p><p><b>4) Transportation capacity investment is based on prediction and represents confidence</b></p><p>If the land reserve reflects the developer's prediction of the market, the airline capacity is based on the expectation of the industry's prosperity. In the future, flight sorties, personnel arrangements, flight increases and decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was in full swing, and the investment in three major aviation operations reached its peak. Among them, the available passenger kilometers (ASK) of China Southern Airlines reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while those of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, and all the three major air transportation capacities were cut in half. The theme of 2021 is \"wait and see\", and the operational investment is the same as that of 2020. China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines are 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers and 161 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In H1 2022, the three major airlines differentiated. Air China and China Eastern Airlines are somewhat \"unable to afford to lose\", while China Southern Airlines has \"strong\" confidence. In the first half of the year, Air China's available passenger kilometers were 44 billion, only 31% of that in H1 2019. Available passenger kilometers of China Eastern were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers reached 75 billion, about 66% of H1 2019, indicating that it is more confident in recovery than its friends.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is at stake</b></p><p>Before the beginning of the epidemic, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1~2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the three major aviation passenger load factor generally declined by 10 percentage points, and all fell into the red.</p><p>In H1 2022, there was a differentiation, with China Southern's capacity increasing to two-thirds of the pre-pandemic level, and passenger load factor still leading; The capacity of Air China and China Eastern Airlines has been greatly reduced, but it still can't stop the decline of passenger load factor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>passenger load factor differs by 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are vastly different.</p><p>Before the pandemic, the gross profit margin of the three major airlines was about 12%, and Air China maintained the lead in gross profit amount.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit exceeded 20 billion for five consecutive years. In 2019, the gross profit of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines was 18.7 billion and 13.7 billion, respectively.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were below minus 20% in 2020 and 2021, and plummeted to minus 75% in H1 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margin was negative 3%, and in H1 2022, it was negative 21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the short and long of \"three big\" from the perspective of cost and expense</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root causes of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, the fuel costs of the three major airlines were approximately 28% of revenue; Compensation, depreciation and airport fees each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>Passenger occupancy rate declined in 2020, but sluggish oil somewhat alleviated the plight of airlines, and the proportion of oil in revenue declined instead of rising. As the three major airlines have their own \"home fields\", the proportion of airport take-off and landing costs in revenue has basically remained unchanged. However, salary and depreciation are \"rigid\", and the proportion of the two costs in revenue has doubled.</p><p>In H1 2022, passenger load factor further declined, and international oil prices soared... Many unfavorable factors came together. Air China's fuel cost accounted for 43% of revenue, depreciation accounted for 42%, salary accounted for 37%, and only airport expenses accounted for 13%. The situation of China Eastern Airlines is worse than that of Air China, while China Southern Airlines shows strong resilience-the proportion of oil is 8 percentage points lower than that of Air China, the salary is 13 percentage points lower, and the depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, under the influence of the epidemic, the proportion of sales, management and finance expenses to revenue also increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines is significantly better than Air China and China Eastern Airlines in all dimensions such as revenue, cash flow, capacity and passenger load factor. If the industry recovers from the epidemic, the advantages of China Southern Airlines are still obvious, and it can be concluded that the \"three-legged\" pattern has been broken.</p><p>However, if there is a \"reversal of adversity\" in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which has the strongest resilience, may not be the best target, and the share price of Air China, which has a beautiful \"signature\", and China Eastern Airlines, which has the \"worst\", may outperform China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"King of Cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holdings</a>(601919.SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, the accumulated non-net profit after deduction exceeded 185 billion! Moreover, the loss-making bulk cargo transportation business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holdings</a>Total profits well over 100 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, the investment value of aviation stocks is not as good as that of container transportation (both COSCO Shipping Holdings and Air China have a market value of 170 billion).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5b688e580614406d82926376bf229c","relate_stocks":{"LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc 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Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票，还声称“看不出哪家更突出”；2020年2月，航空业风雨飘摇之际，巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售，却在5月初“割肉”，损失惨重。数十年来，航空业经历无数“洗礼”，活下来的没有泛泛之辈，客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去，在航空业的至暗时刻买入，静待复苏，这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。受疫情影响，2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%；全年客运量2.5亿人次，为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日，中国国航（60111.SH）、东方航空（600115.SH）和南方航空（600029.SH）同时发布《年度业务预告》，国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿，东航预计亏损368亿~398亿，南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。2020年以来，三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿，平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。将近2000亿亏损，钱去哪儿了？哪家韧性更强？“逆境反转”是否值得一博？“三足鼎立”局面被打破1）营收差距拉大2019年，三大航空营收均创历史新高：南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。疫情影响下，“三大航空”出现分化：南航韧性最强，2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%；2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%；国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙：2020年营收跌至2019年的50%；2021年回升到2019年的55%；2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。2019年，国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%；2022年前三季，国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破，疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。2）赚6年“架不住”亏1年民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”，年利润不过几十亿，亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例，2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿，2022年亏损不低于372亿，6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。相对而言，国航盈利能力算是最强的：2017年扣非净利润72亿，2018年66亿，2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后，国航亏损逐年加大：2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。东航盈利滑坡最明显：峰值在2017年，扣非净利润45亿；2018年大幅降至19亿；2019年，疫情尚未出现，东航已经亏损5.9亿；2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿，与国航相当。南航相对稳健：2017年扣非净利润52亿，2022年亏损不超过340亿。拉长时间尺度，表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年，六年扣非净利润合计355亿；疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年，8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期，南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。航空股也呈周期性，目前所处的完整周期内，总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。3）经营活动现金流“失守”2020年疫情爆发，三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“，国航、东航一直守到2021年。2021年，国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿，经营活动现流入净额却保持正值，分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”，经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高，国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。南航经营活动现金流一直为正，2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿，相当于营收的10.4%。航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去，2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。4）运力投放基于预判、代表信心如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判，航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。2019年，航空客运“如火如荼”，三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里（ASK）达3440亿客公里，国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。2020年，形势急转直下，三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”，运营投放与2020年持平，南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 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