๐ฟ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ค๐ข๐ข๐ช๐ฃ๐๐ฉ๐ฎ The Yield Curve Inversion Is The Deepest Since 1980s - This Is A Big Deal๐จ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐? Yield curve inversions have, historically, been one of the best recession forecasting tools we have. It has correctly predicted recessions for the last 50 years, the timing of that recession, however, can range anywhere from 5-24 months. ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฒ, ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ, ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ฎ๐น๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐.๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ Whatโs striking is that the current spread between the 10-year yield and 2-year yield (-70bps) is now greater than what we experienced before the dot com bubble and the global financial crisis. This indicator is important because the Fed monitors it, this consequently shapes their outlook on monetary policy. ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ป๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐?
It seems China is having a tough time getting away from its Covid Zero policy. Last week it felt like the country was starting to ease restrictions; this week some cities are facing tougher measures again after case numbers had increased. China stocks and oil lower on that news. Bitcoin and other cryptos again approaching their lows from around 2 weeks ago, as the extent of FTX becomes obvious and other firms are struggling with the fallout. A couple of economic data points this week will give more insight into the state of the German economy, arguably important for Europe going into this winter: Producer price index today, business and consumer confidence later this week. Have a good start to the week
$NTES Q3 results mentioned that the contract with Blizzard will be ending January 2023, which might have scared some investor, even though it was stated that this license only represented low single digits percent of total revenue and does not include the agreement from Diablo Immortal. Nonetheless, we see a 10.1% increase in net revenue YoY which includes an increase in Games and related of 9.1% and an increase of 22.5% of Cloud Music. Really glad to see Cloud Music doing well. While, Games increase is decent thanks to games like Identity V, Naraka: Bladepoint, Knives Out and Diablo Immortal, I have even higher hopes for the future as the company has a lot of content ready to be delivered during the end of 2022 and early 2023, including titles like Harry Potter: Magic Awakened (inter