$Alibaba(09988)$ 1)Can Alibaba repeat the feats of GME and BBY?I don't think it's appropriate to compare GME and BBBY to Alibaba. It's like comparing apple to orange.First off, GME and BBBY are 'hype up stocks' simply meant for the purpose of speculative plays. Besides, these businesses are not making money, doesn't have any track records of growing revenue or positive cashflow from their businesses. They attract mainly speculators who want to profit from short term plays. I highly doubt value investors like Charlie Munger or his associates would be keen to have a stake in these businesses.Alibaba on the other hand has real assets and proven track records of revenue growth and it continues
Yes, there are signs of market bottoming base on both price action and macroeconomic factors.Tailwinds1) FEDFED generally have been hawkish since start of this year with aggressive rate hike comments. However recent comments have been tone down with a more dovish approach possibly signaling lower rate hike and slower rate hike. Why? This brings to the next question - inflation 2) Inflation Inflation had so far been 1 of the main catalyst for the recent bear. However we all know that oil and gas and other commodities had came down from their high since June possible signs of inflation had peaked. While we can make excuse that the Russia Ukraine conflict is still ongoing however the chart don't lie.3) Big tech earning releaseThe big tech recent earning release had not met analysts expectatio
Many people said mr market is the best teacher in the investment/trading world. If you are right, you get richly rewarded, if you are wrong you get a slap and a wake up call. What I had learnt from Q1 2022 : My win and my lost - FB diagonal spread $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$ After the market dips back in Sep-Oct 2021, I took a position in FB via option using diagonal spread strategy sometimes in mid Oct. This is an investment grade option strategy I like to use when S&P is on an uptrend. (It is equivalent to owning 100 shares and selling covered calls. Instead of shares, I used ITM call as substitute). You may ask why I use option instead of shares? This boils down to cost. Owning 100 shares of
Previously, I had touched on $TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800)$which mirror the Hang Seng Index for long term investment. While this is a good index ETF, it might not be a suitable choice for investors with small account or investors who wish to accumulate it slowly and progressively over time.As such, I'm sharing a similar index ETF which mirror HSI that would suit small account investors $HS HSI ETF(02833)$What's the difference between $TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800)$versus $HS HSI ETF(02833)$? I did a comparison and here's my findings 1) 2800HK offer option and as such have more li
Base on what I have gathered, courtesy from lplresearch the average bear market drop is nearly 30% and last about a year. So where are we so far? From market peak to trough, S&P 500 is down 27.5% (4818 peak dated 4 Jan and 3491 trough dated 13 Oct) and is about 11 months now so statistically we are nearer to the start of the new bull than continuation of the current bear. For more details, you can refer to https://www.google.com/amp/s/lplresearch.com/2022/05/18/six-things-to-know-about-bear-markets/amp/ Bull case - so if we are assuming base on the thesis that S&P500 had bottomed, where could it be heading? According to Charlie Bilello (source I had obtained from Twitter), S&P returns on the next calendar year is generally bullish with the exception of 1931. Do note
Three Warnings to Remind In Stock Market 1) First and foremost, I don't recommend using leverage to invest. When it comes to investment which I will hold for at least 5-10 years or longer, it has to be money I have and money I don't need for future use. In short it has to be money I can park and sleep well with it. It is important to understand leverage and use it appropriate (disclaimer I only use leverage for trading portfolio but never for investment portfolio). Regardless of one's portfolio size, a failure to control leverage can have devastating effect. Bill Hwang is an example of excessive leverage resulting in huge losses within 2 days https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days 2) Predicting the stock m
As humans, we will all go through different lifecycle from infancy to childhood, adulthood and senior years. As we grew older, we tend to pay more attention to our health. There's a saying ... health is wealth which bring us to a question. How can we be wealthy yet healthy? Is there a way to take advantage of our concern through investing?There are many listed health related companies but I'm no doctor or medical expert to know for sure which companies will excel and I'm not comfortable investing into individual companies hence to have a peace of mind I'm looking at $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$. It literally cover all areas within the healthcare industry.The Health Care Select Sector Index includes companies from the following in
"Sell in May and Go Away" I don't recall gurus such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, John Templeton, Ray Dalio, George Soros etc follow this infamous phrase in investing.When I invest, I take it seriously. I treat it as a business and I consider myself a business owner. Let's look at it from a business owner's perspective. Imagine if you start a brick and mortar store selling bubble tea, you will naturally spent a substantial amount of time and money to renovate, buy equipments for BAU, install security, recruitment etc. In this regard, would anyone who start a business exit their investment after 1 month, or 3 months or 6 months? Surely it makes no sense.So why do folks like to time the market by getting in and out frequently? Or rely on old Wall Street adage for buying and selling decisio
Here we go again, dishing out same formula rinse and repeat eh Elon 😉? Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Twitter short term investors taking a bet on Elon takeover bid of Twitter will unlikely take the bait this time round on Man Utd share. Besides, there's no reason too.Why? If one is taking a look at Man Utd financial, it doesn't make any logical sense to invest into a business with huge debts. If I'm to compare Twitter vs Man Utd and to choose one, I'm more likely to go with Twitter.To sums up, Elon Musk is probably bored, looking for some excitement to pass time. He is better off focusing on his core business or Space X generating more revenues, profits, increasing free cash flow, reducing debts on his businesses to gain more market share vs his competitors. Of cour
Base on my own experience, if FB is announcing earning release I would close all outstanding FB option positions before ER. I had shared previously that keeping open option positions will expose one to unlimited/limited risks (depending on what option strategies you had) given prices can go in any direction.If one is betting on directional option trade base on earning release, can consider option strategies such as bear put spread for bearish outlook, bull call spread for bullish outlook as they are cheaper as compare to buying single put or call. I'm less inclined to consider buying single put or call as it's more expensive and has a more bearish / bullish outlook with a lower win rate as compare to vertical spread. Of course if you got it right, the risk reward is mor
$Alibaba(09988)$I have my utmost respect for Ray Dalio for his wisdom and knowledge. However his decision to sell Alibaba doesn't deviate or influence my own research and conviction on Alibaba. When one invest in a stock, it would be useful to write down his/her own reasons (at least 3) for investing into that business. The same apply to exiting an investment.If there is no fundamental change in the business, there is no reason to exit the business unless you need to raise cash to redeploy them into another equally great business that you like. I believe many had given up on chinese stocks not because of fundamental but rather due to political concerns influencing their bottomline. This reason sounds valid however if I'm
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$Yes the stock is currently cheap but cheap can get cheaper. Fundamentally not a good investment. First, it is in a highly competitive industry where profit margin is low. Then looking deeper it has huge debt, no free cash flow, continue to burn cash to sustain its business. In a high interest rate environment, many businesses will unsustainable business model will fail. Hopefully not this company as I'm a user but not an investor.
1 company with consistent roic is $Walt Disney(DIS)$. Pre-covid their roic are between 11-19% from year 2012-2019. During the lockdown in 2020, it had fallen to negative roic. Since 2021, it has started its recovery, roic had since risen to 3%. I believe this is temporary (drop in roic) as travel is resuming and we are now in post covid phrases where more or less, lifes are back to the 'new norm'. Base on financial service providers $Walt Disney(DIS)$has a fair value of between $170-190. Their last closing price is around $130 which give them an average discount of 28% below their fair valuation.This sharing is for educational purposes, not a buy or sell recommendation, thanks.
First off, can we have the option of choosing both market instead of just 1 out of 2 😂. From the HSI chart, price action is showing higher low and higher high in the daily timeframe. In the weekly, there appear to be resistance around 19400 region. Whether it will break up or down remain to be seen. Personally, I would prefer the market to reverse before hitting higher to prove that the market have legs for further upside and signs of market reversal and start of the new bull run so let's see. As for which market to invest in 2023, it boils down to 1) individual risk appetite - Hong Kong is weighted heavily by geopolitical tensions and government intervention and policies hence it has a higher risk as compare to US market. However, consider it's cheap valuation, it's risk reward
Why did I choose Tiger?I choose Tiger primarily because I wanted exposure to HK/China companies and had wanted to build a portfolio onto it. I believe in the China growth story especially the fact that she is well position to become the number 1 economy in the coming decade. Not many brokerage had direct exposure to this region at that point in time back in 2020. The local SG brokerage had many other add on charges that made investing less attractive. I am glad tiger made itself known with great promo and generate a lot of hype and vibes back in 2020. Fees and charges wise are also compelling from a retailer's perspective hence it's a no brainer to choose tiger over other competitors.The additional bonuses I get from tigers included many educational articles and videos
It feels like deja vu. I've been hearing this delisting subject since I'm vested in $Alibaba(09988)$. This ain't new and I won't be surprised this subject will be bought up again sometime in the future. The business didn't change overnight but as usual, the over reaction exceeds rationale even when it comes to 'recycle' news. The positive take is that a primary listing in HK exchange is in the pipeline. Once approved it will give Alibaba more liquidity via the "HK connect" program which allows domestic investors (i.e chinese national) to invest in China companies listed in the HK exchange. This helps to increase trading volume in HK exchange and over time less dependent on US exchange. Currently, stock price lik
Alibaba Added to SEC's Delisting Watchlist, Shares Fall
Well, what a disappointing result for $Netflix(NFLX)$. Since hitting all time high of $700 in Nov 2021, it had been downtrending. A 63% drop in their share price over 5 months speak volume. Will it get worse? Possibly since overall sentiment had been weak and negative. Will I invest in it? Hell no 😂. Will I trade it? Yes. So how can we take advantage of headline news to trade $Netflix(NFLX)$after its earning release? Is there a cheaper way to trade it without risking a large amount of money? I'm thinking to trade $Netflix(NFLX)$via broken wing butterfly using put 250/230/220 with DTE 6 May 2022. Why? It fits both criteria o
Despite the fact that banking stocks are facing headwinds from fintech companies, our SG banking sector remain robust base on earning releases. Besides, all our SG banks easily meet the Tier 1 capital ratio under the watchful eye of MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore).Of the 3 SG banks, I would recommend $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$over $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$and $UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ to my tiger friends. Why?1) Let's compare PB ratioOCBC has a PB ratio of 1.01 (courtesy from tiger)DBS has a PB ratio of 1.4 ( courtesy from tiger)UOB has a PB ratio of 1.2 ( courtesy from tiger)From this quick glance, OCBC
Personally I like the vibes within the community where we share trading and investing ideas and win coins along the way. You don't get that in other brokerage platforms. Yup, Tigers has also make efforts to improve existing features to make it better along the way. Kudos to them and jobs well done 👏. So are there ways for better improvement? Certainly 😉. Previously I brought up the idea of Tigers collaborating with independent research agencies such as Morningstar or Simply Wall St or other reputable research firms which will certainly brings in more customers and businesses and will benefit Tigers bottomline. Not many investors understand or use fundamental analysis to buy stocks. For many retailers who want to buy stocks, reading analysts article will not help them but confuse
Market will remain choppy until FOMC. Since market already 'price in' 50 bp rate hike, I reckon it will likely turn bullish since indexes are already near/ at support level (possibly double bottom). Besides price action, we are also seeing oversold in technical indicators together with VIX crossing 30 recently. These are positive confluence however it is just probability. There's nothing to stop FED from churning out surprises.As traders, I will avoid over trading and keep my SL tight. As investors, I will ignore 'these noises' and add positions at the price I want.Nothing has changed in my game plan. I like to keep it simple, think logically and will not be influenced by market noises.