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钱富人

钱富人

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2022-11-08

6

@liukuang:B站又備戰虛擬主播了

2024-01-06

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2023-04-07

6

@woships:$京東物流(02618)$ 好久沒分享了，紀念下。

2023-03-19

6

U.S. Stocks in the Banking Crisis: Tech Giants Become the Defensive First Choice

2023-03-19

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The Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.

2023-03-19

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2023-03-17

6

@蓝鲨消费:盤點美味伍俊峯:做預製菜要有敬畏之心

2022-12-11

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@经济观察报:國家藥監局已批准40個新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑

2022-10-13

6

@中国基金报:外交部：點贊！

2022-08-30

6

@小米死多头:如何看待黑客自作木馬程序，12年非法入侵幾十家基金、券商，只賺了185萬！

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好久沒分享了，紀念下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee404747e3890aa13535509ca0efa921","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/653820978","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650625922,"gmtCreate":1679202978268,"gmtModify":1679202978268,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564294526369736","idStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650625922","repostId":"1120537961","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650625077,"gmtCreate":1679202963001,"gmtModify":1679202963001,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564294526369736","idStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650625077","repostId":"1106466264","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106466264","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679202350,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106466264?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 13:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106466264","media":"IN咖","summary":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Ten years after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the bestselling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews many of the people at the center of the storm at the time, attempting to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 came close to a full-blown economic collapse, leading to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>Wall Street CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others described dramatic, all-weather negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment he realized Lehman's collapse could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin repeatedly asked this question to those who had reunited because of the documentary. They recall the nightmares they faced ten years ago, when they shared the same breath as the fate of finance worldwide.</p><p>The protagonist of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to collapse in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for financial support in times of crisis. Later, he called this event \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis process, the interconnected impact of regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>They discussed their own considerations, including their grasp of human nature, which was quite interesting.</p><p>He said,\"<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"A crisis always comes at some point.\"<b>But I don't worry about crises because I manage my behavior well.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was released in 2018, ten years after the crisis. This perfect timeline makes Buffett's retrospective and reflections even more relevant to the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>On the other side<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>This has spread investor concerns about the stability of the banking systems in Europe and the United States.</p><p>At this point, looking back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight he gave to decision-making information, and his consistent investment principles will be very inspiring.</p><p>Eason's translation is very enjoyable to read, and I hope everyone will find it helpful.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior in history, but it turns out that all the participants behaved poorly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008, looking at the big picture, what do you think led to the 2008 crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think housing will only go up and not down, and the residential market has reached $2 trillion. This is a very large asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then they discovered that it didn't rise all the way up.</p><p>They raised debts through real estate, which influenced the event from beginning to end of this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope were busy issuing mortgages on properties they knew they didn't need to hold, which they could immediately package and sell to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and it seems to have no impact on them whether the mortgage borrower's monthly payments are too high or whether they have overstated their income.</p><p>The people who provide them with refinancing are also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Of the 75 million American homebuyers, 50 million were involved in mortgage lending, while only 25 million were spared the impact. Fifty million borrowing households acquired homes through leverage, and many depended on it for survival, while their asset prices collapsed.</p><p>This was the largest financial behavior in history, but it turned out that all the participants behaved poorly.</p><p>They believed (that property prices only go up, not down), and this is what happens when people believe something absurd.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Were you worried when some hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you felt?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that if you spend your whole life involved in the American economy, its value will increase significantly over time, but it will also come with some bumps and bumps.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will experience some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, nor do I predict business (the future direction). I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did receive a call from a top Wall Street firm trying to sell us tens of billions (many, many, many billions) of Freddie Mac stock. I know something might be wrong.</p><p><b>“I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we would not invest in it (Lehman).”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after Bear Stearns collapsed and before Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae did, you received a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers) telling you that his stock was being targeted by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone who says that to me. I like people who short Berkshire Hathaway. How could a short seller hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion. Were you interested at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to his speech.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him to tell me your ideas, first tell me your quote, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could have Henry \"Hank” Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) call me about it.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely unqualified endorsements. He probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch went too far. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, that afternoon I flipped through Lehman's 10K report, which was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances, and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best billion-dollar quick buyer.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're not getting a call from Lehman Brothers, you're getting a call from AIG asking if you'd like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our sight. I said at the time, \"I can't solve this problem. We're going to have to pay about $27 billion. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going to go because of it.\"</p><p>The reality at the time was that they sent me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday, telling me that they were in crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means when they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means that they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We're probably the best billion-dollar-level quick buyer.</p><p>And in this case, they knew I was very interested in the insurance business. They could go bankrupt in a few days, so they were also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the Federal Reserve chairman at the time and realized what was happening, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people look back on the crisis and still see the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis, and debate whether the U.S. government should have intervened at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>And the Wall Street Journal wrote columns praising it (the U.S. government did not intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street people go, we've had enough of them.\"</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that they could do whatever they wanted. This may change to some extent under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during President Obama's term.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Federal Reserve wanted to intervene, they could have intervened at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything happening in the United States, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court might arrest me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in the national interest in that role.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise the public too much. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink significantly, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the public will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Federal Reserve, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then president of the New York Federal Reserve), and George Bush were arguing fiercely at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in the whole event is...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, he bought Merrill Lynch.</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG got a bailout. But then people began to worry again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>After Lehman collapsed, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell one after another (like dominoes), and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to consider the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress did not realize the seriousness of the problem, but Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but he realized the seriousness of the problem, which made me give him a high score.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, you'll remember when Goldman Sachs asks you for money.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury Department has reliable people in charge, the Federal Reserve has reliable people in charge, and the president is reliable, but Congress worries me. I think Goldman Sachs will be intact, as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole thing was Ken Lewis (Bank of America CEO) who bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice on buying Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: Bank of America actually bought Merrill Lynch for $30 billion at about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 a share for it, which was a fair price.</p><p>(If it doesn't do this,) Merrill Lynch's stock price on Monday might only be 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is not a mistake for the entire financial system. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after being acquired, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced the acquisition on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to bail out Lehman, they would have had to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on its own, and the whole thing would have changed.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Looking back at that period of history, are there any things you felt you should have done but didn't? What investments did not materialize?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back at any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we had waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire Hathaway could have bought many things at a cheaper price. The stock price in March 2009 was much cheaper than in October 2008.</p><p>In late October 2008, I wrote a column in the New York Times. In the long run, I was right, but the price was much cheaper four or five months later.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you ever think about where the red lines are that this system has taken us so far, but it still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not handled properly, it may last longer. But we can always get out of a crisis, and we have already gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one force in the world that can make people deleverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, the crisis will arrive.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can the public and the new generation learn any lessons from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was established.</p><p>In the 19th century, our country experienced all kinds of panic.<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's intelligence; even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear, who at that time chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connection or impact between the crisis ten years ago and today's politics, government, and institutions?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memories. This was also the case in 1929, and it took a long time. When they experience extreme fear, something sticks and gets etched in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who would be blamed for falsely reporting some income on the loan application form when buying a house, believing that house prices will continue to rise, and thus refinancing?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? This is also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Many people have done very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always some people doing something fake. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can easily make money from it; you can take out a new loan in Bakersfield, California, and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, with the value of one security contract based on another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go through 300,000 pages of material to understand the primary security and the secondary securities based on it, etc. Moreover, for a considerable period of time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this method.</p><p>This is where the crisis will happen.</p><p><b>“Crises always come at some point, but I’m not worried about them. Because I manage my behavior well.”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>And why?</p><p><b>Buffett said that because I managed my behavior well, Berkshire Hathaway would remain very healthy even if another crisis came.</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about right now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people who don't understand it at all to the market. People are interested in asset appreciation, but they don't really understand it themselves.</p><p>When you think your much dumber neighbor has become rich because of rising asset prices, but you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always exist. But if you ask me which type of asset is in this state right now, I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can we better deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I never read the entire 2000-plus pages of the Dodd-Frank Act; I only read the outline.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. However, I (do) believe that this bill may prevent the Federal Reserve from handling the crisis quickly and collaboratively.</p><p>I would say that this was a terrible mistake. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion dollar housing market and more than 75 million homebuyers, you need a force capable of deleveraging.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, a metaphor I had never used before. I felt like I had never experienced anything like it.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high of 381 points and then plummeted. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones had already returned to 250 points, which did not plunge so many people into such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but Wall Street had far less influence then than it does now, probably due to 401ks and many other things. Housing will touch everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IN咖</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-19 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Ten years after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the bestselling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews many of the people at the center of the storm at the time, attempting to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 came close to a full-blown economic collapse, leading to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>Wall Street CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others described dramatic, all-weather negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment he realized Lehman's collapse could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin repeatedly asked this question to those who had reunited because of the documentary. They recall the nightmares they faced ten years ago, when they shared the same breath as the fate of finance worldwide.</p><p>The protagonist of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to collapse in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for financial support in times of crisis. Later, he called this event \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis process, the interconnected impact of regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>They discussed their own considerations, including their grasp of human nature, which was quite interesting.</p><p>He said,\"<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"A crisis always comes at some point.\"<b>But I don't worry about crises because I manage my behavior well.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was released in 2018, ten years after the crisis. This perfect timeline makes Buffett's retrospective and reflections even more relevant to the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>On the other side<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>This has spread investor concerns about the stability of the banking systems in Europe and the United States.</p><p>At this point, looking back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight he gave to decision-making information, and his consistent investment principles will be very inspiring.</p><p>Eason's translation is very enjoyable to read, and I hope everyone will find it helpful.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior in history, but it turns out that all the participants behaved poorly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008, looking at the big picture, what do you think led to the 2008 crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think housing will only go up and not down, and the residential market has reached $2 trillion. This is a very large asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then they discovered that it didn't rise all the way up.</p><p>They raised debts through real estate, which influenced the event from beginning to end of this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope were busy issuing mortgages on properties they knew they didn't need to hold, which they could immediately package and sell to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and it seems to have no impact on them whether the mortgage borrower's monthly payments are too high or whether they have overstated their income.</p><p>The people who provide them with refinancing are also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Of the 75 million American homebuyers, 50 million were involved in mortgage lending, while only 25 million were spared the impact. Fifty million borrowing households acquired homes through leverage, and many depended on it for survival, while their asset prices collapsed.</p><p>This was the largest financial behavior in history, but it turned out that all the participants behaved poorly.</p><p>They believed (that property prices only go up, not down), and this is what happens when people believe something absurd.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Were you worried when some hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you felt?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that if you spend your whole life involved in the American economy, its value will increase significantly over time, but it will also come with some bumps and bumps.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will experience some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, nor do I predict business (the future direction). I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did receive a call from a top Wall Street firm trying to sell us tens of billions (many, many, many billions) of Freddie Mac stock. I know something might be wrong.</p><p><b>“I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we would not invest in it (Lehman).”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after Bear Stearns collapsed and before Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae did, you received a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers) telling you that his stock was being targeted by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone who says that to me. I like people who short Berkshire Hathaway. How could a short seller hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion. Were you interested at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to his speech.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him to tell me your ideas, first tell me your quote, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could have Henry \"Hank” Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) call me about it.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely unqualified endorsements. He probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch went too far. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, that afternoon I flipped through Lehman's 10K report, which was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances, and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best billion-dollar quick buyer.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're not getting a call from Lehman Brothers, you're getting a call from AIG asking if you'd like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our sight. I said at the time, \"I can't solve this problem. We're going to have to pay about $27 billion. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going to go because of it.\"</p><p>The reality at the time was that they sent me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday, telling me that they were in crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means when they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means that they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We're probably the best billion-dollar-level quick buyer.</p><p>And in this case, they knew I was very interested in the insurance business. They could go bankrupt in a few days, so they were also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the Federal Reserve chairman at the time and realized what was happening, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people look back on the crisis and still see the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis, and debate whether the U.S. government should have intervened at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>And the Wall Street Journal wrote columns praising it (the U.S. government did not intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street people go, we've had enough of them.\"</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that they could do whatever they wanted. This may change to some extent under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during President Obama's term.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Federal Reserve wanted to intervene, they could have intervened at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything happening in the United States, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court might arrest me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in the national interest in that role.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise the public too much. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink significantly, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the public will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Federal Reserve, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then president of the New York Federal Reserve), and George Bush were arguing fiercely at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in the whole event is...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, he bought Merrill Lynch.</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG got a bailout. But then people began to worry again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>After Lehman collapsed, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell one after another (like dominoes), and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to consider the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress did not realize the seriousness of the problem, but Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but he realized the seriousness of the problem, which made me give him a high score.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, you'll remember when Goldman Sachs asks you for money.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury Department has reliable people in charge, the Federal Reserve has reliable people in charge, and the president is reliable, but Congress worries me. I think Goldman Sachs will be intact, as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole thing was Ken Lewis (Bank of America CEO) who bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice on buying Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: Bank of America actually bought Merrill Lynch for $30 billion at about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 a share for it, which was a fair price.</p><p>(If it doesn't do this,) Merrill Lynch's stock price on Monday might only be 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is not a mistake for the entire financial system. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after being acquired, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced the acquisition on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to bail out Lehman, they would have had to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on its own, and the whole thing would have changed.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Looking back at that period of history, are there any things you felt you should have done but didn't? What investments did not materialize?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back at any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we had waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire Hathaway could have bought many things at a cheaper price. The stock price in March 2009 was much cheaper than in October 2008.</p><p>In late October 2008, I wrote a column in the New York Times. In the long run, I was right, but the price was much cheaper four or five months later.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you ever think about where the red lines are that this system has taken us so far, but it still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not handled properly, it may last longer. But we can always get out of a crisis, and we have already gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one force in the world that can make people deleverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, the crisis will arrive.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can the public and the new generation learn any lessons from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was established.</p><p>In the 19th century, our country experienced all kinds of panic.<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's intelligence; even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear, who at that time chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connection or impact between the crisis ten years ago and today's politics, government, and institutions?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memories. This was also the case in 1929, and it took a long time. When they experience extreme fear, something sticks and gets etched in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who would be blamed for falsely reporting some income on the loan application form when buying a house, believing that house prices will continue to rise, and thus refinancing?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? This is also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Many people have done very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always some people doing something fake. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can easily make money from it; you can take out a new loan in Bakersfield, California, and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, with the value of one security contract based on another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go through 300,000 pages of material to understand the primary security and the secondary securities based on it, etc. Moreover, for a considerable period of time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this method.</p><p>This is where the crisis will happen.</p><p><b>“Crises always come at some point, but I’m not worried about them. Because I manage my behavior well.”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>And why?</p><p><b>Buffett said that because I managed my behavior well, Berkshire Hathaway would remain very healthy even if another crisis came.</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about right now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people who don't understand it at all to the market. People are interested in asset appreciation, but they don't really understand it themselves.</p><p>When you think your much dumber neighbor has become rich because of rising asset prices, but you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always exist. But if you ask me which type of asset is in this state right now, I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can we better deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I never read the entire 2000-plus pages of the Dodd-Frank Act; I only read the outline.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. However, I (do) believe that this bill may prevent the Federal Reserve from handling the crisis quickly and collaboratively.</p><p>I would say that this was a terrible mistake. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion dollar housing market and more than 75 million homebuyers, you need a force capable of deleveraging.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, a metaphor I had never used before. I felt like I had never experienced anything like it.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high of 381 points and then plummeted. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones had already returned to 250 points, which did not plunge so many people into such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but Wall Street had far less influence then than it does now, probably due to 401ks and many other things. Housing will touch everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World）。在这部纪录片中，CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin）采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物，试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们，他们曾聚集在一起，试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）、约翰·塞恩（John Thain）和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗？索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦，曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时，高管们向巴菲特求助，希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来，他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中，对于危机过程中的一些细节，对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响，以及伯克希尔自身的考量，都有谈到，其中关于人性的拿捏，也很有意思。他说，“当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机，因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片，是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离，让巴菲特的回溯与思考，更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应，从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷，让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候，回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中，思考的方式，对于决策信息赋予的权重，以及所持有的一贯投资原则，对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译，很有悦读感，希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金：回到2008年，从大局来看，你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特：众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。（但我认为最重要的因素在于）人们认为房产会只涨不跌，而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们（通过资产证券化）将其当做货币使用，但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债，在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款，他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资，房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上，（参与其中人）对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务，只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋，很多人赖以生存，而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了（房产价格只涨不跌），当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时，这样的事情就会发生。索尔金：2008年早期，一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了，你当时感到担忧吗？你还记得你当时的心情吗？巴菲特：我没有担忧。因为我始终假设（如果）一生都参与到美国经济当中的话，它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨，但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂，所以我从不尝试预测市场，我也不会去预测生意（未来的走向），我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天，我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话，试图卖给我们几百亿美元（many，many，many billions）的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其（雷曼）进行投资。”索尔金：我不知道你是否还记得，在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前，你接到了迪克·福尔德（Richard Dick Fuld，雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO）的电话，他告诉你，他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特：是的，任何人对我这么说，我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人，卖空者怎么会伤害到你？索尔金：福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会，你当时感兴趣了吗？巴菲特：我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金：你如何回复他的？巴菲特：我告诉他，把你的想法告诉我，首先告诉我你的报价，然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着，他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上，我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森（Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson，时任美国财政部长）就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点，汉克就给我打了电话，他提出了一些完全不合格的背书，他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资，但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何，那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告，它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金：你看到了什么？巴菲特：我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西，以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金：现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话，询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特：我告诉他们，不要指望我们，我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵，所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以，那个时间点上，我拒绝了。不久之后，他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说，我无法解决这个问题，我们要支付大概270亿美元，我们有这个财力，但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是，他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料，告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金：你觉得，他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么？巴菲特：这意味着，他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西，我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例，他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭，因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我会选择介入。”索尔金：很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻，并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上，纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬（美国政府没有介入）。巴菲特：是的，当时所有人都想，“让这些华尔街的滚蛋，我们受够了他们”。很久以前，美联储主席说，无论他们想做什么，他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下，这点可能发生一定的改变，但是……（注：《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案，于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。）索尔金：所以你认为，如果美联储想要介入，他们当时可以介入。巴菲特：如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕，但我认为从国家利益的角度来看，那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金：所以你认为美联储犯了错？巴菲特：我不知道。因为，他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水，以及各种个人问题。然而，你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障，这么做非常困难。索尔金：当时，汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特：巨大。伯南克（时任美联储主席）、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner，时任纽约联储主席）以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论，但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯，他买下了美林。”索尔金：雷曼兄弟破产了，美国银行收购了美林，AIG得到了救助。但之后，人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特：当雷曼破产之后，商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金，这些事情像（多米诺骨牌一样）一个接一个倒下，而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性，布什认识到了。我没有投票给他，但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金：那周的晚些时候，我接到了来自高盛的电话，你记得那通电话吗？巴菲特：我记得那通电话。哈哈，当高盛找你要钱，你会记得的。索尔金：你当时的想法是什么？巴菲特：我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的，只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损，只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯（美国银行CEO）在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林（注：实际上，美国银行以每股约29美元的价格，斥资300亿美元买下美林）。他周六做出了决定，周日宣布收购。当时，没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱，但是他说我们会支付30美元（一股）的价格买下它，这是个公正的价格。（如果不这么做，）美林周一（的股价）可能只有3毛钱。索尔金：你认为这是个大错误？巴菲特：对于整个金融系统来说，这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好，但在那个时点，如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购，它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻，如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困，他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去，整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金：回溯那段历史，你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事？哪些没有达成的投资？巴菲特：我可以回顾任何一周，找到这样的事情。如果当时，我们可以多等待4-5个月的话，伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬，我在纽约时报写了专栏文章，长期来看我是对的，但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金：你会不会思考，这个系统带我们前进了这么多，但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期，这些红线在哪里？巴菲特：如果危机没有被妥善处理，可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机，我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻，政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆，只有一种力量（指政府部门）。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做，危机就会到来。索尔金：对于公众、新一代人来说，他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训？巴菲特：没有。因为人们总会恐慌，这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时，我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。而且，这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历，害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人，你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶，在那个时候，他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金：你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗？巴菲特：是的，人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样，这（化解）需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧，有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是，不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入，认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等，谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金：所以，是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢？这也是个政治问题。巴菲特：很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情，但我不认为有人应该（为此负责）。我是说，始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上，这些人被房地产市场所吸引，因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱，你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后，它变成了一连串合约，一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品，我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且，在相当一段时间，大家都安然无恙，所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金：你担心另一场危机的到来吗？巴菲特：危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。索尔金：为什么？巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为，就算另一场危机到来，伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金：当下，你会担忧什么事情？巴菲特：资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣，但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有，而你没有变富，你的配偶就会问你：你就不能也弄明白（然后赚大钱）吗？这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态，我还没有观察到。索尔金：我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗？巴菲特：这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》，我只读了概要。我有一个种观点，我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我（确实）认为，这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地（处理危机）。我会说，这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储！你可能不喜欢它，它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情，但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家，你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金：在那一周，这些人不断地打电话给你，在当时你如何评估的？巴菲特：我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”，我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且，从即时的恐慌程度来讲，当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日，道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生，道琼斯已经回到了250点，它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街，但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在，这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650622740,"gmtCreate":1679202954282,"gmtModify":1679202954282,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564294526369736","idStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650622740","repostId":"1178013922","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650828803,"gmtCreate":1679048354503,"gmtModify":1679048354503,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564294526369736","idStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650828803","repostId":"650820733","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":650820733,"gmtCreate":1679046891624,"gmtModify":1679046891624,"author":{"id":"4103872978948020","authorId":"4103872978948020","name":"蓝鲨消费","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0017fc602a63f0c7c171c17a4ab548ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4103872978948020","idStr":"4103872978948020"},"themes":[],"title":"盤點美味伍俊峯:做預製菜要有敬畏之心","htmlText":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 韌性增長”的2022新消費品牌獨角獸峯會在杭州臨平成功舉辦。40餘位嘉賓的強大陣容，消費趨勢、投資方向等精彩內容，吸引了包括消費上市企業創始人、消費投資機構代表和投資人，新消費品牌獨角獸、未來獨角獸企業創始人和高管、數字化服務商等合計1000餘人次到場參加。此外，新浪財經、藍鯊消費視頻號等6個直播渠道還對大會進行了全程直播，總計吸引了83.5萬人次觀看。在峯會現場，盤點美味董事長伍俊峯做了《中式預製菜的機遇與挑戰》主題演講。他認爲，做預製菜一定要有敬畏之心。預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突。從選材開始（原料、輔料、調料、香料）到加工工藝，每個環節都要實行標準化，只有執行標準化，才能確保品質，形成穩定的供應，同時實現規模化生產，降本增效。以下爲伍俊峯演講全文，經藍鯊消費整理，有刪減：圖片大家好，我是上海盤點食品有限公司董事長伍俊峯。非常感謝主辦方給了我這樣的機會能夠跟大家分享一些我的思考。很多人認爲預製菜是一個新型行業，我覺得它根本不是一個新行業，更不是這幾年才催生出的。過去在鄉下辦喜事，需要提前幾天把菜做好。到現場，只需要簡單加熱，再炒幾個素菜就可以上桌了。我們這個行業如果真正地“練”起來它是絕對高大上，如果不這麼認爲，它也不高大上，這是兩個極端的思考方式。01口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突我認爲，中式菜餚的挑戰其實是口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突。舉個例子，兩個朋友一起去吃飯，一個說我想吃點辣的，另一個說我不愛吃辣。兩個人一起走到飯店裏就會很尷尬，往哪兒走呢？解決這個衝突的問題最好的方法是吃鴛鴦火鍋。餐飲裏完全可以做到辣與不辣共存。既要強調標準化，又要講究個性化，這不是很矛盾嗎？在我看來二者其實並不矛盾，是相輔相成的，要在標","listText":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 韌性增長”的2022新消費品牌獨角獸峯會在杭州臨平成功舉辦。40餘位嘉賓的強大陣容，消費趨勢、投資方向等精彩內容，吸引了包括消費上市企業創始人、消費投資機構代表和投資人，新消費品牌獨角獸、未來獨角獸企業創始人和高管、數字化服務商等合計1000餘人次到場參加。此外，新浪財經、藍鯊消費視頻號等6個直播渠道還對大會進行了全程直播，總計吸引了83.5萬人次觀看。在峯會現場，盤點美味董事長伍俊峯做了《中式預製菜的機遇與挑戰》主題演講。他認爲，做預製菜一定要有敬畏之心。預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突。從選材開始（原料、輔料、調料、香料）到加工工藝，每個環節都要實行標準化，只有執行標準化，才能確保品質，形成穩定的供應，同時實現規模化生產，降本增效。以下爲伍俊峯演講全文，經藍鯊消費整理，有刪減：圖片大家好，我是上海盤點食品有限公司董事長伍俊峯。非常感謝主辦方給了我這樣的機會能夠跟大家分享一些我的思考。很多人認爲預製菜是一個新型行業，我覺得它根本不是一個新行業，更不是這幾年才催生出的。過去在鄉下辦喜事，需要提前幾天把菜做好。到現場，只需要簡單加熱，再炒幾個素菜就可以上桌了。我們這個行業如果真正地“練”起來它是絕對高大上，如果不這麼認爲，它也不高大上，這是兩個極端的思考方式。01口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突我認爲，中式菜餚的挑戰其實是口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突。舉個例子，兩個朋友一起去吃飯，一個說我想吃點辣的，另一個說我不愛吃辣。兩個人一起走到飯店裏就會很尷尬，往哪兒走呢？解決這個衝突的問題最好的方法是吃鴛鴦火鍋。餐飲裏完全可以做到辣與不辣共存。既要強調標準化，又要講究個性化，這不是很矛盾嗎？在我看來二者其實並不矛盾，是相輔相成的，要在標","text":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 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藥品監督管理部門將加強相關產品上市後監管，保護患者用械安全。 附：國家藥監局已批准新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑","listText":"據國家藥監局網站消息，12月11日，經國家藥監局審查，批准中山生物工程有限公司的新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑產品。截至目前，國家藥監局已批准40個新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑產品。 藥品監督管理部門將加強相關產品上市後監管，保護患者用械安全。 附：國家藥監局已批准新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑","text":"據國家藥監局網站消息，12月11日，經國家藥監局審查，批准中山生物工程有限公司的新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑產品。截至目前，國家藥監局已批准40個新冠病毒抗原檢測試劑產品。 藥品監督管理部門將加強相關產品上市後監管，保護患者用械安全。 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TweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":664839135,"gmtCreate":1667910317729,"gmtModify":1676537983111,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/664839135","repostId":"664181962","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":664181962,"gmtCreate":1667873166166,"gmtModify":1676537977583,"author":{"id":"3525313951201310","authorId":"3525313951201310","name":"liukuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2e48e55ada1adf8c663ce8f5b526c4","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525313951201310","authorIdStr":"3525313951201310"},"themes":[],"title":"B站又備戰虛擬主播了","htmlText":"配圖來自Canva可畫隨着技術的不斷髮展，虛擬主播越來越爲人所熟知。實際上，虛擬主播是虛擬人下沉的結果，是新興形式與現有媒介融合的產物，同時也是技術進步、成本降低、消費者對其理解愈發深入所致的必然趨勢。需要特別指出的是，虛擬主播大致能夠分爲兩派：一派基於AI，另一派基於真人，也就是所謂的“中之人”，本文所提到的均爲後者。其中一個現象尤其值得注意：B站與虛擬主播在形式（ACG基底）和內核（小衆文化、強包容性）上達成了驚人的一致，以至於國內大多數虛擬主播都圍繞在B站周圍活動——反過來說，B站是盤踞在虛擬主播賽道中不可忽視的龐然大物。在虛擬主播產業鏈中，B站作爲平臺，牢牢把握住了溝通上下游的中間環節，並在縱向上逐漸延伸。B站的虛擬主播基因虛擬主播產業鏈中有許多相關企業，作爲數字人的一支，也有不少企業能夠做到從設計到生產再到運營的一站式服務，但只有B站在虛擬主播賽道中擁有如此強的影響力和品牌效應，以至於其成爲了虛擬主播進入賽場的第一選擇。之所以出現這種現象，歸根結底是因爲在上述服務之外，B站作爲平臺擁有極爲契合虛擬主播的基因，由此形成了相對於其他平臺的優勢。在表現形式上，B站的ACG基因與虛擬主播相通。B站以二次元社區起家，至今不能擺脫日式動漫的烙印，而虛擬主播最常見的皮套（指虛擬形象）大多帶有極強的ACG特徵——事實上，虛擬主播皮套的設計本身就受到ACG內容的極大影響。而表現形式層面的高度契合，使B站的用戶羣體對虛擬主播有着天然的高接受度，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易在這裏生根發芽。在內核上，B站強包容性和小衆文化聚居地的基因與虛擬主播契合。拋開表面特徵來看，虛擬主播實質是中之人的“理想形象”和“第二人格”，在不受約束的情況下，此二者經常以區別於主流的方式表現出來，因此成爲一種“小衆文化”，與B站內核遙相輝映。這種內核層面的高度契合使觀衆與虛擬主播達成了共鳴，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易","listText":"配圖來自Canva可畫隨着技術的不斷髮展，虛擬主播越來越爲人所熟知。實際上，虛擬主播是虛擬人下沉的結果，是新興形式與現有媒介融合的產物，同時也是技術進步、成本降低、消費者對其理解愈發深入所致的必然趨勢。需要特別指出的是，虛擬主播大致能夠分爲兩派：一派基於AI，另一派基於真人，也就是所謂的“中之人”，本文所提到的均爲後者。其中一個現象尤其值得注意：B站與虛擬主播在形式（ACG基底）和內核（小衆文化、強包容性）上達成了驚人的一致，以至於國內大多數虛擬主播都圍繞在B站周圍活動——反過來說，B站是盤踞在虛擬主播賽道中不可忽視的龐然大物。在虛擬主播產業鏈中，B站作爲平臺，牢牢把握住了溝通上下游的中間環節，並在縱向上逐漸延伸。B站的虛擬主播基因虛擬主播產業鏈中有許多相關企業，作爲數字人的一支，也有不少企業能夠做到從設計到生產再到運營的一站式服務，但只有B站在虛擬主播賽道中擁有如此強的影響力和品牌效應，以至於其成爲了虛擬主播進入賽場的第一選擇。之所以出現這種現象，歸根結底是因爲在上述服務之外，B站作爲平臺擁有極爲契合虛擬主播的基因，由此形成了相對於其他平臺的優勢。在表現形式上，B站的ACG基因與虛擬主播相通。B站以二次元社區起家，至今不能擺脫日式動漫的烙印，而虛擬主播最常見的皮套（指虛擬形象）大多帶有極強的ACG特徵——事實上，虛擬主播皮套的設計本身就受到ACG內容的極大影響。而表現形式層面的高度契合，使B站的用戶羣體對虛擬主播有着天然的高接受度，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易在這裏生根發芽。在內核上，B站強包容性和小衆文化聚居地的基因與虛擬主播契合。拋開表面特徵來看，虛擬主播實質是中之人的“理想形象”和“第二人格”，在不受約束的情況下，此二者經常以區別於主流的方式表現出來，因此成爲一種“小衆文化”，與B站內核遙相輝映。這種內核層面的高度契合使觀衆與虛擬主播達成了共鳴，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易","text":"配圖來自Canva可畫隨着技術的不斷髮展，虛擬主播越來越爲人所熟知。實際上，虛擬主播是虛擬人下沉的結果，是新興形式與現有媒介融合的產物，同時也是技術進步、成本降低、消費者對其理解愈發深入所致的必然趨勢。需要特別指出的是，虛擬主播大致能夠分爲兩派：一派基於AI，另一派基於真人，也就是所謂的“中之人”，本文所提到的均爲後者。其中一個現象尤其值得注意：B站與虛擬主播在形式（ACG基底）和內核（小衆文化、強包容性）上達成了驚人的一致，以至於國內大多數虛擬主播都圍繞在B站周圍活動——反過來說，B站是盤踞在虛擬主播賽道中不可忽視的龐然大物。在虛擬主播產業鏈中，B站作爲平臺，牢牢把握住了溝通上下游的中間環節，並在縱向上逐漸延伸。B站的虛擬主播基因虛擬主播產業鏈中有許多相關企業，作爲數字人的一支，也有不少企業能夠做到從設計到生產再到運營的一站式服務，但只有B站在虛擬主播賽道中擁有如此強的影響力和品牌效應，以至於其成爲了虛擬主播進入賽場的第一選擇。之所以出現這種現象，歸根結底是因爲在上述服務之外，B站作爲平臺擁有極爲契合虛擬主播的基因，由此形成了相對於其他平臺的優勢。在表現形式上，B站的ACG基因與虛擬主播相通。B站以二次元社區起家，至今不能擺脫日式動漫的烙印，而虛擬主播最常見的皮套（指虛擬形象）大多帶有極強的ACG特徵——事實上，虛擬主播皮套的設計本身就受到ACG內容的極大影響。而表現形式層面的高度契合，使B站的用戶羣體對虛擬主播有着天然的高接受度，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易在這裏生根發芽。在內核上，B站強包容性和小衆文化聚居地的基因與虛擬主播契合。拋開表面特徵來看，虛擬主播實質是中之人的“理想形象”和“第二人格”，在不受約束的情況下，此二者經常以區別於主流的方式表現出來，因此成爲一種“小衆文化”，與B站內核遙相輝映。這種內核層面的高度契合使觀衆與虛擬主播達成了共鳴，這就意味着虛擬主播更容易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1446c01eb8ee31880ddbcfa1a41bd26c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/664181962","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260094095061160,"gmtCreate":1704509590072,"gmtModify":1704509591525,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"66666666666666666666","listText":"66666666666666666666","text":"66666666666666666666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260094095061160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":653679659,"gmtCreate":1680855476372,"gmtModify":1680855476372,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crm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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$京東物流(02618)$&nbsp;</a>好久沒分享了，紀念下。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$京東物流(02618)$&nbsp;</a>好久沒分享了，紀念下。","text":"$京東物流(02618)$ 好久沒分享了，紀念下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee404747e3890aa13535509ca0efa921","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/653820978","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650625922,"gmtCreate":1679202978268,"gmtModify":1679202978268,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650625922","repostId":"1120537961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120537961","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1679201834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120537961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 12:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Stocks in the Banking Crisis: Tech Giants Become the Defensive First Choice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120537961","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"与初创企业不同，苹果、微软这样的大型科技公司拥有巨额现金储备，主营业务几乎不会受到银行问题的威胁。伴随着美股银行业危机持续，大型科技股重获投资者青睐。在过去的一周里，美股各类非银ETF基金表现亮眼，科","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Unlike start-ups,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Such big tech companies have huge cash reserves, and their main businesses are hardly threatened by banking problems. As the U.S. banking crisis continues, large-cap technology stocks have regained the favor of investors.</p><p>In the past week, various non-bank ETF funds in U.S. stocks have performed brightly, and the Technology Stock Fund (XLK) has performed strongly, rising 6.3% in a single week. This was followed by the Communications Industry Fund (XLC) and the Utilities Fund (XLU), which rose 6.1% and 4.1%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba89e3ce335f1502a7ccddc998ae688d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among them, large-cap technology stocks are the highlight. SPDR Significant Constituents<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>and Meta, which have gained 12.8% and 10%, respectively, over the past week. Tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>up 10.1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 7.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556abe3378ae67a6553af04b0bdb46af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The strong performance of large-cap tech stocks is tied to changing investor expectations.<b>In the aftermath of the banking crisis, investors are keen to find companies with solid performance. Unlike start-ups, big tech companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft have huge cash reserves that make them less vulnerable to balance sheet slips.</b>The former two also pay for Dividend — once a big no-no in the tech world, but now part of a drive to attract defensive investors.</p><p><b>Otherwise, the main businesses of big tech companies are hardly threatened by banking problems.</b>Morningstar analyst Ali Mogharabi believes that the US banking crisis will not have \"any material impact\" on the online media or advertising companies it covers.</p><p>The SVB bankruptcy is also expected to solidify the tech giant's existing industry position. According to Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner, quite a few startups are closely related to SVB. In addition to the short-term disruption of SVB's bankruptcy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The follow-up industry may emphasize that loan companies need to have stronger free cash/profitability, and the loan standard is expected to be further improved. This will further limit the ease with which small companies can access financing and enter the industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks in the Banking Crisis: Tech Giants Become the Defensive First Choice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks in the Banking Crisis: Tech Giants Become the Defensive First Choice\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-19 12:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Unlike start-ups,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Such big tech companies have huge cash reserves, and their main businesses are hardly threatened by banking problems. As the U.S. banking crisis continues, large-cap technology stocks have regained the favor of investors.</p><p>In the past week, various non-bank ETF funds in U.S. stocks have performed brightly, and the Technology Stock Fund (XLK) has performed strongly, rising 6.3% in a single week. This was followed by the Communications Industry Fund (XLC) and the Utilities Fund (XLU), which rose 6.1% and 4.1%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba89e3ce335f1502a7ccddc998ae688d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among them, large-cap technology stocks are the highlight. SPDR Significant Constituents<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>and Meta, which have gained 12.8% and 10%, respectively, over the past week. Tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>up 10.1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 7.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556abe3378ae67a6553af04b0bdb46af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The strong performance of large-cap tech stocks is tied to changing investor expectations.<b>In the aftermath of the banking crisis, investors are keen to find companies with solid performance. Unlike start-ups, big tech companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft have huge cash reserves that make them less vulnerable to balance sheet slips.</b>The former two also pay for Dividend — once a big no-no in the tech world, but now part of a drive to attract defensive investors.</p><p><b>Otherwise, the main businesses of big tech companies are hardly threatened by banking problems.</b>Morningstar analyst Ali Mogharabi believes that the US banking crisis will not have \"any material impact\" on the online media or advertising companies it covers.</p><p>The SVB bankruptcy is also expected to solidify the tech giant's existing industry position. According to Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner, quite a few startups are closely related to SVB. In addition to the short-term disruption of SVB's bankruptcy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The follow-up industry may emphasize that loan companies need to have stronger free cash/profitability, and the loan standard is expected to be further improved. This will further limit the ease with which small companies can access financing and enter the industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120537961","content_text":"与初创企业不同，苹果、微软这样的大型科技公司拥有巨额现金储备，主营业务几乎不会受到银行问题的威胁。伴随着美股银行业危机持续，大型科技股重获投资者青睐。在过去的一周里，美股各类非银ETF基金表现亮眼，科技股基金（XLK）表现强劲，单周上涨6.3%。其次是通讯行业基金（XLC），公用事业基金（XLU），涨幅分别达到6.1%和4.1%。这其中，大型科技股才是重头戏。SPDR重要成分股谷歌和Meta，过去一周分别上涨了12.8%和10%。科技巨头亚马逊上涨10.1%，特斯拉上涨7.5%。大型科技股的强劲表现与投资者预期变化息息相关。在银行业危机爆发后，投资者热衷于寻找有稳定业绩表现的公司。与初创企业不同，像苹果、Alphabet和微软这样的大型科技公司拥有巨额现金储备，这使它们不那么容易受到资产负债表下滑的影响。前两者还支付股息——这在科技界曾经是个大忌，但现在却是吸引防御性投资者的一部分。除此以外，大型科技公司的主营业务几乎不会受到银行问题的威胁。Morningstar分析师Ali Mogharabi分析认为，美股银行业危机不会对其覆盖的在线媒体或广告公司产生“任何实质性影响”。SVB破产还有望稳固科技巨头现有的行业地位。Mizuho分析师John Baumgartner表示，相当多的初创公司与SVB密切相关。除了SVB破产短期干扰外，美国银行业后续可能强调贷款公司需要有更强的自由现金/盈利能力，贷款标准有望进一步提升。这将进一步限制小公司获得融资并进入行业的便利性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650625077,"gmtCreate":1679202963001,"gmtModify":1679202963001,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650625077","repostId":"1106466264","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106466264","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679202350,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106466264?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 13:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106466264","media":"IN咖","summary":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Ten years after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the bestselling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews many of the people at the center of the storm at the time, attempting to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 came close to a full-blown economic collapse, leading to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>Wall Street CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others described dramatic, all-weather negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment he realized Lehman's collapse could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin repeatedly asked this question to those who had reunited because of the documentary. They recall the nightmares they faced ten years ago, when they shared the same breath as the fate of finance worldwide.</p><p>The protagonist of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to collapse in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for financial support in times of crisis. Later, he called this event \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis process, the interconnected impact of regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>They discussed their own considerations, including their grasp of human nature, which was quite interesting.</p><p>He said,\"<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"A crisis always comes at some point.\"<b>But I don't worry about crises because I manage my behavior well.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was released in 2018, ten years after the crisis. This perfect timeline makes Buffett's retrospective and reflections even more relevant to the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>On the other side<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>This has spread investor concerns about the stability of the banking systems in Europe and the United States.</p><p>At this point, looking back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight he gave to decision-making information, and his consistent investment principles will be very inspiring.</p><p>Eason's translation is very enjoyable to read, and I hope everyone will find it helpful.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior in history, but it turns out that all the participants behaved poorly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008, looking at the big picture, what do you think led to the 2008 crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think housing will only go up and not down, and the residential market has reached $2 trillion. This is a very large asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then they discovered that it didn't rise all the way up.</p><p>They raised debts through real estate, which influenced the event from beginning to end of this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope were busy issuing mortgages on properties they knew they didn't need to hold, which they could immediately package and sell to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and it seems to have no impact on them whether the mortgage borrower's monthly payments are too high or whether they have overstated their income.</p><p>The people who provide them with refinancing are also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Of the 75 million American homebuyers, 50 million were involved in mortgage lending, while only 25 million were spared the impact. Fifty million borrowing households acquired homes through leverage, and many depended on it for survival, while their asset prices collapsed.</p><p>This was the largest financial behavior in history, but it turned out that all the participants behaved poorly.</p><p>They believed (that property prices only go up, not down), and this is what happens when people believe something absurd.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Were you worried when some hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you felt?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that if you spend your whole life involved in the American economy, its value will increase significantly over time, but it will also come with some bumps and bumps.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will experience some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, nor do I predict business (the future direction). I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did receive a call from a top Wall Street firm trying to sell us tens of billions (many, many, many billions) of Freddie Mac stock. I know something might be wrong.</p><p><b>“I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we would not invest in it (Lehman).”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after Bear Stearns collapsed and before Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae did, you received a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers) telling you that his stock was being targeted by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone who says that to me. I like people who short Berkshire Hathaway. How could a short seller hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion. Were you interested at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to his speech.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him to tell me your ideas, first tell me your quote, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could have Henry \"Hank” Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) call me about it.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely unqualified endorsements. He probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch went too far. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, that afternoon I flipped through Lehman's 10K report, which was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances, and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best billion-dollar quick buyer.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're not getting a call from Lehman Brothers, you're getting a call from AIG asking if you'd like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our sight. I said at the time, \"I can't solve this problem. We're going to have to pay about $27 billion. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going to go because of it.\"</p><p>The reality at the time was that they sent me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday, telling me that they were in crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means when they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means that they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We're probably the best billion-dollar-level quick buyer.</p><p>And in this case, they knew I was very interested in the insurance business. They could go bankrupt in a few days, so they were also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the Federal Reserve chairman at the time and realized what was happening, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people look back on the crisis and still see the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis, and debate whether the U.S. government should have intervened at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>And the Wall Street Journal wrote columns praising it (the U.S. government did not intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street people go, we've had enough of them.\"</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that they could do whatever they wanted. This may change to some extent under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during President Obama's term.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Federal Reserve wanted to intervene, they could have intervened at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything happening in the United States, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court might arrest me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in the national interest in that role.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise the public too much. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink significantly, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the public will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Federal Reserve, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then president of the New York Federal Reserve), and George Bush were arguing fiercely at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in the whole event is...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, he bought Merrill Lynch.</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG got a bailout. But then people began to worry again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>After Lehman collapsed, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell one after another (like dominoes), and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to consider the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress did not realize the seriousness of the problem, but Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but he realized the seriousness of the problem, which made me give him a high score.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, you'll remember when Goldman Sachs asks you for money.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury Department has reliable people in charge, the Federal Reserve has reliable people in charge, and the president is reliable, but Congress worries me. I think Goldman Sachs will be intact, as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole thing was Ken Lewis (Bank of America CEO) who bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice on buying Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: Bank of America actually bought Merrill Lynch for $30 billion at about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 a share for it, which was a fair price.</p><p>(If it doesn't do this,) Merrill Lynch's stock price on Monday might only be 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is not a mistake for the entire financial system. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after being acquired, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced the acquisition on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to bail out Lehman, they would have had to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on its own, and the whole thing would have changed.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Looking back at that period of history, are there any things you felt you should have done but didn't? What investments did not materialize?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back at any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we had waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire Hathaway could have bought many things at a cheaper price. The stock price in March 2009 was much cheaper than in October 2008.</p><p>In late October 2008, I wrote a column in the New York Times. In the long run, I was right, but the price was much cheaper four or five months later.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you ever think about where the red lines are that this system has taken us so far, but it still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not handled properly, it may last longer. But we can always get out of a crisis, and we have already gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one force in the world that can make people deleverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, the crisis will arrive.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can the public and the new generation learn any lessons from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was established.</p><p>In the 19th century, our country experienced all kinds of panic.<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's intelligence; even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear, who at that time chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connection or impact between the crisis ten years ago and today's politics, government, and institutions?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memories. This was also the case in 1929, and it took a long time. When they experience extreme fear, something sticks and gets etched in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who would be blamed for falsely reporting some income on the loan application form when buying a house, believing that house prices will continue to rise, and thus refinancing?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? This is also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Many people have done very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always some people doing something fake. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can easily make money from it; you can take out a new loan in Bakersfield, California, and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, with the value of one security contract based on another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go through 300,000 pages of material to understand the primary security and the secondary securities based on it, etc. Moreover, for a considerable period of time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this method.</p><p>This is where the crisis will happen.</p><p><b>“Crises always come at some point, but I’m not worried about them. Because I manage my behavior well.”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>And why?</p><p><b>Buffett said that because I managed my behavior well, Berkshire Hathaway would remain very healthy even if another crisis came.</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about right now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people who don't understand it at all to the market. People are interested in asset appreciation, but they don't really understand it themselves.</p><p>When you think your much dumber neighbor has become rich because of rising asset prices, but you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always exist. But if you ask me which type of asset is in this state right now, I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can we better deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I never read the entire 2000-plus pages of the Dodd-Frank Act; I only read the outline.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. However, I (do) believe that this bill may prevent the Federal Reserve from handling the crisis quickly and collaboratively.</p><p>I would say that this was a terrible mistake. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion dollar housing market and more than 75 million homebuyers, you need a force capable of deleveraging.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, a metaphor I had never used before. I felt like I had never experienced anything like it.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high of 381 points and then plummeted. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones had already returned to 250 points, which did not plunge so many people into such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but Wall Street had far less influence then than it does now, probably due to 401ks and many other things. Housing will touch everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Credit Suisse crisis triggered panic; see how Buffett reviews and reflects on the details of the 2008 financial crisis.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IN咖</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-19 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Ten years after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the bestselling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews many of the people at the center of the storm at the time, attempting to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 came close to a full-blown economic collapse, leading to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>Wall Street CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others described dramatic, all-weather negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment he realized Lehman's collapse could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin repeatedly asked this question to those who had reunited because of the documentary. They recall the nightmares they faced ten years ago, when they shared the same breath as the fate of finance worldwide.</p><p>The protagonist of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to collapse in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for financial support in times of crisis. Later, he called this event \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis process, the interconnected impact of regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>They discussed their own considerations, including their grasp of human nature, which was quite interesting.</p><p>He said,\"<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"A crisis always comes at some point.\"<b>But I don't worry about crises because I manage my behavior well.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was released in 2018, ten years after the crisis. This perfect timeline makes Buffett's retrospective and reflections even more relevant to the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>On the other side<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>This has spread investor concerns about the stability of the banking systems in Europe and the United States.</p><p>At this point, looking back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight he gave to decision-making information, and his consistent investment principles will be very inspiring.</p><p>Eason's translation is very enjoyable to read, and I hope everyone will find it helpful.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior in history, but it turns out that all the participants behaved poorly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008, looking at the big picture, what do you think led to the 2008 crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think housing will only go up and not down, and the residential market has reached $2 trillion. This is a very large asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then they discovered that it didn't rise all the way up.</p><p>They raised debts through real estate, which influenced the event from beginning to end of this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope were busy issuing mortgages on properties they knew they didn't need to hold, which they could immediately package and sell to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and it seems to have no impact on them whether the mortgage borrower's monthly payments are too high or whether they have overstated their income.</p><p>The people who provide them with refinancing are also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Of the 75 million American homebuyers, 50 million were involved in mortgage lending, while only 25 million were spared the impact. Fifty million borrowing households acquired homes through leverage, and many depended on it for survival, while their asset prices collapsed.</p><p>This was the largest financial behavior in history, but it turned out that all the participants behaved poorly.</p><p>They believed (that property prices only go up, not down), and this is what happens when people believe something absurd.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Were you worried when some hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you felt?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that if you spend your whole life involved in the American economy, its value will increase significantly over time, but it will also come with some bumps and bumps.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will experience some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, nor do I predict business (the future direction). I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did receive a call from a top Wall Street firm trying to sell us tens of billions (many, many, many billions) of Freddie Mac stock. I know something might be wrong.</p><p><b>“I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we would not invest in it (Lehman).”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after Bear Stearns collapsed and before Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae did, you received a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers) telling you that his stock was being targeted by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone who says that to me. I like people who short Berkshire Hathaway. How could a short seller hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion. Were you interested at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to his speech.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him to tell me your ideas, first tell me your quote, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could have Henry \"Hank” Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) call me about it.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely unqualified endorsements. He probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch went too far. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, that afternoon I flipped through Lehman's 10K report, which was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the homepage, and I knew we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances, and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best billion-dollar quick buyer.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're not getting a call from Lehman Brothers, you're getting a call from AIG asking if you'd like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our sight. I said at the time, \"I can't solve this problem. We're going to have to pay about $27 billion. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going to go because of it.\"</p><p>The reality at the time was that they sent me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday, telling me that they were in crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means when they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means that they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We're probably the best billion-dollar-level quick buyer.</p><p>And in this case, they knew I was very interested in the insurance business. They could go bankrupt in a few days, so they were also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the Federal Reserve chairman at the time and realized what was happening, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people look back on the crisis and still see the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis, and debate whether the U.S. government should have intervened at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>And the Wall Street Journal wrote columns praising it (the U.S. government did not intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street people go, we've had enough of them.\"</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that they could do whatever they wanted. This may change to some extent under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during President Obama's term.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Federal Reserve wanted to intervene, they could have intervened at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything happening in the United States, I think I would have chosen to intervene regardless of whether I had the ability to do so or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court might arrest me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in the national interest in that role.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise the public too much. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink significantly, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the public will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Federal Reserve, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then president of the New York Federal Reserve), and George Bush were arguing fiercely at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in the whole event is...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, he bought Merrill Lynch.</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG got a bailout. But then people began to worry again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>After Lehman collapsed, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell one after another (like dominoes), and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to consider the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress did not realize the seriousness of the problem, but Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but he realized the seriousness of the problem, which made me give him a high score.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, you'll remember when Goldman Sachs asks you for money.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury Department has reliable people in charge, the Federal Reserve has reliable people in charge, and the president is reliable, but Congress worries me. I think Goldman Sachs will be intact, as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole thing was Ken Lewis (Bank of America CEO) who bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice on buying Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: Bank of America actually bought Merrill Lynch for $30 billion at about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 a share for it, which was a fair price.</p><p>(If it doesn't do this,) Merrill Lynch's stock price on Monday might only be 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is not a mistake for the entire financial system. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after being acquired, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced the acquisition on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to bail out Lehman, they would have had to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on its own, and the whole thing would have changed.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Looking back at that period of history, are there any things you felt you should have done but didn't? What investments did not materialize?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back at any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we had waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire Hathaway could have bought many things at a cheaper price. The stock price in March 2009 was much cheaper than in October 2008.</p><p>In late October 2008, I wrote a column in the New York Times. In the long run, I was right, but the price was much cheaper four or five months later.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you ever think about where the red lines are that this system has taken us so far, but it still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not handled properly, it may last longer. But we can always get out of a crisis, and we have already gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one force in the world that can make people deleverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, the crisis will arrive.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can the public and the new generation learn any lessons from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was established.</p><p>In the 19th century, our country experienced all kinds of panic.<b>When people are afraid, panic occurs. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's intelligence; even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear, who at that time chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connection or impact between the crisis ten years ago and today's politics, government, and institutions?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memories. This was also the case in 1929, and it took a long time. When they experience extreme fear, something sticks and gets etched in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who would be blamed for falsely reporting some income on the loan application form when buying a house, believing that house prices will continue to rise, and thus refinancing?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? This is also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Many people have done very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always some people doing something fake. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can easily make money from it; you can take out a new loan in Bakersfield, California, and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, with the value of one security contract based on another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go through 300,000 pages of material to understand the primary security and the secondary securities based on it, etc. Moreover, for a considerable period of time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this method.</p><p>This is where the crisis will happen.</p><p><b>“Crises always come at some point, but I’m not worried about them. Because I manage my behavior well.”</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>And why?</p><p><b>Buffett said that because I managed my behavior well, Berkshire Hathaway would remain very healthy even if another crisis came.</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about right now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people who don't understand it at all to the market. People are interested in asset appreciation, but they don't really understand it themselves.</p><p>When you think your much dumber neighbor has become rich because of rising asset prices, but you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always exist. But if you ask me which type of asset is in this state right now, I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Can we better deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I never read the entire 2000-plus pages of the Dodd-Frank Act; I only read the outline.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. However, I (do) believe that this bill may prevent the Federal Reserve from handling the crisis quickly and collaboratively.</p><p>I would say that this was a terrible mistake. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion dollar housing market and more than 75 million homebuyers, you need a force capable of deleveraging.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, a metaphor I had never used before. I felt like I had never experienced anything like it.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high of 381 points and then plummeted. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones had already returned to 250 points, which did not plunge so many people into such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but Wall Street had far less influence then than it does now, probably due to 401ks and many other things. Housing will touch everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World）。在这部纪录片中，CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin）采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物，试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们，他们曾聚集在一起，试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）、约翰·塞恩（John Thain）和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗？索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦，曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时，高管们向巴菲特求助，希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来，他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中，对于危机过程中的一些细节，对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响，以及伯克希尔自身的考量，都有谈到，其中关于人性的拿捏，也很有意思。他说，“当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机，因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片，是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离，让巴菲特的回溯与思考，更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应，从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷，让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候，回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中，思考的方式，对于决策信息赋予的权重，以及所持有的一贯投资原则，对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译，很有悦读感，希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金：回到2008年，从大局来看，你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特：众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。（但我认为最重要的因素在于）人们认为房产会只涨不跌，而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们（通过资产证券化）将其当做货币使用，但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债，在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款，他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资，房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上，（参与其中人）对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务，只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋，很多人赖以生存，而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了（房产价格只涨不跌），当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时，这样的事情就会发生。索尔金：2008年早期，一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了，你当时感到担忧吗？你还记得你当时的心情吗？巴菲特：我没有担忧。因为我始终假设（如果）一生都参与到美国经济当中的话，它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨，但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂，所以我从不尝试预测市场，我也不会去预测生意（未来的走向），我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天，我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话，试图卖给我们几百亿美元（many，many，many billions）的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其（雷曼）进行投资。”索尔金：我不知道你是否还记得，在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前，你接到了迪克·福尔德（Richard Dick Fuld，雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO）的电话，他告诉你，他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特：是的，任何人对我这么说，我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人，卖空者怎么会伤害到你？索尔金：福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会，你当时感兴趣了吗？巴菲特：我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金：你如何回复他的？巴菲特：我告诉他，把你的想法告诉我，首先告诉我你的报价，然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着，他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上，我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森（Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson，时任美国财政部长）就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点，汉克就给我打了电话，他提出了一些完全不合格的背书，他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资，但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何，那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告，它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金：你看到了什么？巴菲特：我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西，以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金：现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话，询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特：我告诉他们，不要指望我们，我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵，所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以，那个时间点上，我拒绝了。不久之后，他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说，我无法解决这个问题，我们要支付大概270亿美元，我们有这个财力，但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是，他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料，告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金：你觉得，他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么？巴菲特：这意味着，他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西，我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例，他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭，因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我会选择介入。”索尔金：很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻，并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上，纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬（美国政府没有介入）。巴菲特：是的，当时所有人都想，“让这些华尔街的滚蛋，我们受够了他们”。很久以前，美联储主席说，无论他们想做什么，他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下，这点可能发生一定的改变，但是……（注：《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案，于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。）索尔金：所以你认为，如果美联储想要介入，他们当时可以介入。巴菲特：如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕，但我认为从国家利益的角度来看，那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金：所以你认为美联储犯了错？巴菲特：我不知道。因为，他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水，以及各种个人问题。然而，你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障，这么做非常困难。索尔金：当时，汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特：巨大。伯南克（时任美联储主席）、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner，时任纽约联储主席）以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论，但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯，他买下了美林。”索尔金：雷曼兄弟破产了，美国银行收购了美林，AIG得到了救助。但之后，人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特：当雷曼破产之后，商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金，这些事情像（多米诺骨牌一样）一个接一个倒下，而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性，布什认识到了。我没有投票给他，但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金：那周的晚些时候，我接到了来自高盛的电话，你记得那通电话吗？巴菲特：我记得那通电话。哈哈，当高盛找你要钱，你会记得的。索尔金：你当时的想法是什么？巴菲特：我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的，只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损，只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯（美国银行CEO）在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林（注：实际上，美国银行以每股约29美元的价格，斥资300亿美元买下美林）。他周六做出了决定，周日宣布收购。当时，没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱，但是他说我们会支付30美元（一股）的价格买下它，这是个公正的价格。（如果不这么做，）美林周一（的股价）可能只有3毛钱。索尔金：你认为这是个大错误？巴菲特：对于整个金融系统来说，这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好，但在那个时点，如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购，它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻，如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困，他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去，整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金：回溯那段历史，你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事？哪些没有达成的投资？巴菲特：我可以回顾任何一周，找到这样的事情。如果当时，我们可以多等待4-5个月的话，伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬，我在纽约时报写了专栏文章，长期来看我是对的，但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金：你会不会思考，这个系统带我们前进了这么多，但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期，这些红线在哪里？巴菲特：如果危机没有被妥善处理，可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机，我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻，政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆，只有一种力量（指政府部门）。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做，危机就会到来。索尔金：对于公众、新一代人来说，他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训？巴菲特：没有。因为人们总会恐慌，这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时，我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。而且，这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历，害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人，你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶，在那个时候，他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金：你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗？巴菲特：是的，人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样，这（化解）需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧，有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是，不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入，认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等，谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金：所以，是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢？这也是个政治问题。巴菲特：很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情，但我不认为有人应该（为此负责）。我是说，始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上，这些人被房地产市场所吸引，因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱，你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后，它变成了一连串合约，一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品，我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且，在相当一段时间，大家都安然无恙，所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金：你担心另一场危机的到来吗？巴菲特：危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。索尔金：为什么？巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为，就算另一场危机到来，伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金：当下，你会担忧什么事情？巴菲特：资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣，但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有，而你没有变富，你的配偶就会问你：你就不能也弄明白（然后赚大钱）吗？这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态，我还没有观察到。索尔金：我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗？巴菲特：这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》，我只读了概要。我有一个种观点，我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我（确实）认为，这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地（处理危机）。我会说，这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储！你可能不喜欢它，它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情，但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家，你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金：在那一周，这些人不断地打电话给你，在当时你如何评估的？巴菲特：我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”，我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且，从即时的恐慌程度来讲，当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日，道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生，道琼斯已经回到了250点，它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街，但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在，这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650622740,"gmtCreate":1679202954282,"gmtModify":1679202954282,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650622740","repostId":"1178013922","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650828803,"gmtCreate":1679048354503,"gmtModify":1679048354503,"author":{"id":"3564294526369736","authorId":"3564294526369736","name":"钱富人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b84500d6d850f01df2d9386bbfe661","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564294526369736","authorIdStr":"3564294526369736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650828803","repostId":"650820733","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":650820733,"gmtCreate":1679046891624,"gmtModify":1679046891624,"author":{"id":"4103872978948020","authorId":"4103872978948020","name":"蓝鲨消费","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0017fc602a63f0c7c171c17a4ab548ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103872978948020","authorIdStr":"4103872978948020"},"themes":[],"title":"盤點美味伍俊峯:做預製菜要有敬畏之心","htmlText":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 韌性增長”的2022新消費品牌獨角獸峯會在杭州臨平成功舉辦。40餘位嘉賓的強大陣容，消費趨勢、投資方向等精彩內容，吸引了包括消費上市企業創始人、消費投資機構代表和投資人，新消費品牌獨角獸、未來獨角獸企業創始人和高管、數字化服務商等合計1000餘人次到場參加。此外，新浪財經、藍鯊消費視頻號等6個直播渠道還對大會進行了全程直播，總計吸引了83.5萬人次觀看。在峯會現場，盤點美味董事長伍俊峯做了《中式預製菜的機遇與挑戰》主題演講。他認爲，做預製菜一定要有敬畏之心。預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突。從選材開始（原料、輔料、調料、香料）到加工工藝，每個環節都要實行標準化，只有執行標準化，才能確保品質，形成穩定的供應，同時實現規模化生產，降本增效。以下爲伍俊峯演講全文，經藍鯊消費整理，有刪減：圖片大家好，我是上海盤點食品有限公司董事長伍俊峯。非常感謝主辦方給了我這樣的機會能夠跟大家分享一些我的思考。很多人認爲預製菜是一個新型行業，我覺得它根本不是一個新行業，更不是這幾年才催生出的。過去在鄉下辦喜事，需要提前幾天把菜做好。到現場，只需要簡單加熱，再炒幾個素菜就可以上桌了。我們這個行業如果真正地“練”起來它是絕對高大上，如果不這麼認爲，它也不高大上，這是兩個極端的思考方式。01口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突我認爲，中式菜餚的挑戰其實是口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突。舉個例子，兩個朋友一起去吃飯，一個說我想吃點辣的，另一個說我不愛吃辣。兩個人一起走到飯店裏就會很尷尬，往哪兒走呢？解決這個衝突的問題最好的方法是吃鴛鴦火鍋。餐飲裏完全可以做到辣與不辣共存。既要強調標準化，又要講究個性化，這不是很矛盾嗎？在我看來二者其實並不矛盾，是相輔相成的，要在標","listText":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 韌性增長”的2022新消費品牌獨角獸峯會在杭州臨平成功舉辦。40餘位嘉賓的強大陣容，消費趨勢、投資方向等精彩內容，吸引了包括消費上市企業創始人、消費投資機構代表和投資人，新消費品牌獨角獸、未來獨角獸企業創始人和高管、數字化服務商等合計1000餘人次到場參加。此外，新浪財經、藍鯊消費視頻號等6個直播渠道還對大會進行了全程直播，總計吸引了83.5萬人次觀看。在峯會現場，盤點美味董事長伍俊峯做了《中式預製菜的機遇與挑戰》主題演講。他認爲，做預製菜一定要有敬畏之心。預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突。從選材開始（原料、輔料、調料、香料）到加工工藝，每個環節都要實行標準化，只有執行標準化，才能確保品質，形成穩定的供應，同時實現規模化生產，降本增效。以下爲伍俊峯演講全文，經藍鯊消費整理，有刪減：圖片大家好，我是上海盤點食品有限公司董事長伍俊峯。非常感謝主辦方給了我這樣的機會能夠跟大家分享一些我的思考。很多人認爲預製菜是一個新型行業，我覺得它根本不是一個新行業，更不是這幾年才催生出的。過去在鄉下辦喜事，需要提前幾天把菜做好。到現場，只需要簡單加熱，再炒幾個素菜就可以上桌了。我們這個行業如果真正地“練”起來它是絕對高大上，如果不這麼認爲，它也不高大上，這是兩個極端的思考方式。01口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突我認爲，中式菜餚的挑戰其實是口味個性化與生產工業化的衝突。舉個例子，兩個朋友一起去吃飯，一個說我想吃點辣的，另一個說我不愛吃辣。兩個人一起走到飯店裏就會很尷尬，往哪兒走呢？解決這個衝突的問題最好的方法是吃鴛鴦火鍋。餐飲裏完全可以做到辣與不辣共存。既要強調標準化，又要講究個性化，這不是很矛盾嗎？在我看來二者其實並不矛盾，是相輔相成的，要在標","text":"藍鯊導讀：預製菜一直存在口味與工業化，生產標準化與產品個性化的衝突2023年2月25日—26日，由藍鯊消費主辦，主題爲“穿越週期 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