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发哥发发发
2021-01-25
bidu
回港上市或“撞车”，B站和百度谁更值得投资？
发哥发发发
2022-11-10
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
发哥发发发
2022-11-10
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
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href=\"http://yicai.com/news/100926080.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63289601f3ad098c752a92f3805088c6","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"http://yicai.com/news/100926080.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2105490697","content_text":"一个是成功破圈的“后浪”，手握“中视频”流量洼地；一个则在经历低谷后，因造车实现U型反弹。\n\n中概股回港IPO浪潮再次袭来。近日有消息称B站、百度先后向港交所正式提交了二次上市申请。交表时间接近，意味着两家公司接来下招股时间很可能 “撞车”。\n按照港交所流程，回港二次上市的公司可秘密交表，通过聆讯前，无需在联交所网站公布具体信息。关于二次上市，两家公司均表示不予置评。\nB站和百度，一个是成功破圈的“后浪”，手握“中视频”流量洼地；一个则在经历低谷后，因造车实现U型反弹。两家业务模式并不等同的公司在撞期之下，谁更值得投资？\n“目前尚不知道两家公司选择招股时机的主观动机，但从资本市场角度来讲，如果B站和百度两强相对，并不是一个很好的策略。”一位参与港股IPO项目的投资人士对第一财经记者说。去年蚂蚁金服、蓝月亮招股，对于其他想要IPO的公司来说会形成“吸血效应”，大家会尽量避开节奏。\n香颂资本执行董事沈萌在接受第一财经采访时表示，香港募股可以用孖展的方式杠杆撬动更大资金，尤其今年以来南下资金非常亢奋，满足两家公司的招股需求也不是难事，但是撞期可能会引发“面子”问题。“谁能在香港IPO冻结更大规模资金可能是关心的话题”。\n\n市值暴涨背后\n过去一年，B站和百度的市值都经历了进阶式的变化。\n其中，B站一年股价累计涨幅达360.37%。截至1月22日收盘，B站股价133.75美元，市值达到464.70亿美元，上市不到三年股价暴涨13倍。\n相比之下，百度股价则经历很长一段低谷，去年3月百度股价低至82美元，市值不足300亿美元，走到近7年最低点。直到第四季度，先后公布Apollo自动驾驶最新进展和造车消息推动了百度强劲上涨走势，2020年的最后一个交易日创下过去52 周内新高，市值超700亿美元。\n如果从过去一年的财报业绩来看，在2020年前三个季度，B站距离百度营收有近10倍之差，其中B站营收增速分别为69%、70%、74%，百度营收增速分别为-7%、-1%和1%。从盈利角度来看，B站亏损逐步加大，其中第三季度亏损扩大至171%，百度在去年实现扭亏为盈。\n不过，连续的亏损并没有阻碍B站在资本市场一路高歌。B站的市场表现一方面源自新生代消费群体的崛起，另一方面源自B站积极的用户增长、拉新策略和多元商业化试水。从跨年晚会到《后浪》、《入海》、《喜相逢》“破圈三部曲”，B站的内容破圈能力开始被市场所关注，同时B站用户数量和用户活跃度保持较快增长，去年8月B站单月活跃用户突破2亿，创下历史新高。\n尤其是在OGV（专业生产内容）领域B站动作频频，5.13亿港币入股欢喜传媒，《风犬少年的天空》、《夺冠》等影视作品落地B站。2020年4月索尼4亿美元战略投资B站，成为继腾讯、阿里后的又一重要战略投资人。\n内容之外，B站在商业化变现上也开始加快步伐。2020年B站的广告业务实现了连续7个季度的加速增长。\n和B站相比，过去一年的百度放下了“BAT的包袱”。很长一段时间，百度股价处于低谷的一个重要原因是自动驾驶、小度等新兴业务的价值未被体现。人工智能创业热潮在经历了市场优胜劣汰，有些融资困难、逐步销声匿迹，一度让外界认为“人工智能不赚钱”。\n在2020年年中一场与百度员工的沟通活动上，百度董事长李彦宏曾表示：每家公司都有高光和低谷的时候，没有一家公司能够抓住所有的风口和机会，每家公司都有自己擅长和不擅长的东西，以技术创新为核心驱动是百度所擅长的。\n技术需要长期坚持，随着Apollo自动驾驶的业务落地、小度分拆和AI技术商业化前景逐渐清晰，这部分业务的价值正逐步得到体现。\n“过去Apollo非但不会有市场估值，甚至被认为是拖累百度业绩的成本项。现在，仅自动驾驶业务，市场已经给出了100 亿美元的估值。投入了8年，风终于来了。”此前一位百度自动驾驶事业群组人士对第一财经记者说。\n在以信息和知识为核心的移动生态领域稳健发展，以及AI加速落地的双重利好带动下，百度在2020年股价上涨股价累计上涨 70%。近期Cathie Wood创立的ARK基金持续加仓百度,主要还是因为看好自动驾驶的未来前景。\n“回归热”下还有哪些挑战？\n2020年港股IPO发行规模达到3975.28亿港元，同比增长27% 。港股前10大IPO中，中概股回归公司占据6席。\n此前阿里巴巴、京东、网易赴港二次上市引发了一波回归潮，如今B站、百度、拼多多二次上市传闻也愈演愈烈，新一轮的中概股二次上市热潮是否会到来？\n老虎证券分析表示，在待回港二次上市名单中，还有十余家符合条件的企业正蓄势待发，这样的节点在历史上还未曾出现过。去年瑞幸造假事件引发信任危机，交易所监管收紧带来的未知性，以及接下来的合规成本、估值风险，或许都是中概股回归的诉求。\n尤其是对于大中型市值的中概股，也很难有更好的选择，如果私有化或者回A股，那么成本、难度都将非常大，周期也会比较长。对于中概股自身来讲，二次上市本身也可以更好的匹配公司发展战略，对业绩、资本实力都有更好的提升。\n不过，对于计划在香港二次上市的B站和百度而言，仍面临不小挑战。\n对百度而言，在过去一年实现了扭亏为盈，但造车仍是一件“烧钱”的事。根据百度官方透露的信息，它将组建一家智能汽车公司，以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业，面向乘用车市场制造智能电动汽车。可以对比的是，蔚来、小鹏、理想等国内的造车新势力市值飙涨但尚未扭亏，并且高位增发融资，说明仍需大量的资金投入。\n从百度过往业绩来看，在线广告仍是驱动百度营收增长的主力。 汽车是一个高成长、高门槛的赛道，但百度尚未披露造车细节，接下来考验执行力和竞争力，而这一业务将多大程度上影响业绩目前还都是未知数。\n此外，过去一年时间里百度加大力度投入了健康、直播、电商、短视频等多个赛道，但这些领域都面临较为强劲的竞争对手。\n对B站而言，它的营收结构日趋平衡，各个业务增速迅猛，但相较于百度B站的盈利模式还未走通，面临营收和亏损同步扩大问题。以最新的2020年三季度业绩为例，亏损的扩大主要源自销售和营销费用的增加，在自制内容和版权内容持续投入的情况下，B站转型带来的财务阵痛仍不可避免。\n“破圈”所带来的新挑战也不容小觑。一面是挑剔的Z世代年轻用户，一面是不断提速的商业化进程，作为老赛道中的新选手，在走向全民视频平台的过程中，B站如何平衡商业化和社区氛围，如何将积淀下来的用户价值转化成被大众用户接受的商业价值，同时不失去平台的独特性，依旧是一个老问题。\n值得注意的是，快手预计将先于B站，将在下周一（1月25日）启动机构招股，并计划今年2月上市，作为短视频第一股，业界预计届时将迎来一场资本盛宴。大和分析师指出，快手即将上市，其估值和集资规模能够为衡量B站的价值提供一个参照基准。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960116978,"gmtCreate":1668093808095,"gmtModify":1676538012042,"author":{"id":"3565270727419079","authorId":"3565270727419079","name":"发哥发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccdf36163002f2f041eff87e9a7211c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565270727419079","idStr":"3565270727419079"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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