This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.   $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 260

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

$Silver - main 2605(SImain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  📉📊📉 Silver’s 16% Weekly Collapse Signals Liquidity Repricing at a Critical SPY Decision Zone 📉📊📉 🧠 A coordinated unwind across commodities is now feeding directly into broader risk assets. This is no longer an isolated move, it is a cross-asset repricing event that demands structured interpretation. Silver just posted a -16% weekly decline, its second-largest drop since 2011. Two months ago, it was up over 60%. That magnitude of reversal points to positioning stress, not standard volatility. 📉 Now sitting at -4.94% YTD in 2026 📉 Mome

Global financial markets have recently grown increasingly complex, and it is evident that market capital is currently undergoing a drastic risk repricing. Against this backdrop, both commodities and equity markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion, struggling to sustain their recent trajectories. Crude oil may be facing fading upward momentum, while US equities—battered by capital outflows and suppressed by rising yields—appear vulnerable to further weakness at any moment.​ Short Bets Intensify on US Equities Institutional trading desk data reveals that the selling pressure on US equities is not to be underestimated. Goldman Sachs' Prime Book data flashes a distinctively negative signal: US equities have faced sell-offs for the fourth consecutive week. More alarmingly, hedge funds are not

The market initially seemed to expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption to fade quickly, much like last year’s Iranian missile retaliation, but that has not happened. Shipping disruptions have persisted, oil has surged, and investors are paying much closer attention to the inflation and growth risks that come with a prolonged energy shock. What has changed even more is the dollar. After spending much of the past year in a weak trend, the greenback has started to behave very differently since the Strait disruption. With higher oil feeding inflation concerns, rate-cut expectations for this year have been pushed back sharply, and the market is now pricing in very little easing from the Fed, which is helping support dollar demand. If the next Fed chair also turns out to be more focused on balanc

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

By the 11th day of the U.S.–Iran war, markets have gone through extreme turbulence. WTI crude futures have surged in the short term from 80 dollars—a level many traders saw as a point to close positions—to nearly 120 dollars, and then, within just one day, plunged sharply back down to around 83. U.S. equity indices also tumbled quickly when the war escalated, only to stage a broad-based rebound afterward. At this point, many investors are likely asking themselves: how should we position our portfolios now? What opportunities in the market are still worth our close attention? To figure out what opportunities in the market are really worth seizing right now, we first need to understand the macro logic that is driving current volatility. Let’s take a look at the macro transmission chain we’re

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un