Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,

Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound PossibleAfter significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged in a heated debate in the Oval Office, with Trump even warning that Ukraine was “gambling on World War III.” Despite the dramatic confrontation broadcast live for the world to witness, the U.S. stock market displayed relatively little reaction. Instead, traders and investors appeared to focus on the possibility of progress in Russo-Ukrainian peace negotiations.While the markets initially dipped following the news, volatility quickly subsided, and stocks began to recover. The "fear index" on Wall Street briefly spiked but stabilized shortly after. Keith Lerner, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, commented that investors seemed to interpret Trump’s remarks as political theatrics ra

On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released revised data for the fourth quarter, indicating that the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP was 2.3%, unchanged from the initial estimate. While this represents a slowdown compared to previous quarters, it underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy.图片Meanwhile, inflation data presents a less optimistic picture. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—showed an annualized growth rate of 2.7% for the fourth quarter, revised upward from the previously reported 2.5%.图片Durable Goods Orders Surge in JanuaryIn addition, stronger-than-expected growth in the transportation sector propelled a sharp incre

In January and February 2025, copper prices both domestically and internationally have shown signs of strengthening. This trend is driven by two key factors: expectations of copper supply shortages and a recovery in copper demand, both domestically and abroad. Reflecting on the surge in copper prices from February to May 2024, it was primarily fueled by market optimism about increased copper consumption due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). However, weaker-than-expected domestic copper consumption subsequently limited the price rally.Looking ahead, we anticipate a renewed upward trend in copper prices. The primary drivers include a tightening copper supply worldwide, which has led to negative spot market treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for copper concentrates. Additio

During Thursday evening's live session, I emphasized that February represents a pivotal time window for U.S. stock indices. Unlike other periods, this month often dictates the market's trajectory for the entire year. As if on cue, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline on Friday, marking another "Black Friday." While the drop was not severe, its implications should not be underestimated. I advise caution in managing your U.S. stock index positions to guard against potential volatility. For a more detailed analysis of this critical period and corresponding strategies, join me in this Thursday's 8 PM live session.Economic Data Sparks Concerns: U.S. Bonds Surge, Stocks PlungeOn February 21, 2025, Wall Street witnessed one of the worst trading days of the year for U.S. stocks. Despite varyin

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, released overnight, provide key insights into the central bank's current policy directions. During the January 28–29 meeting, the Fed opted to maintain its interest rates, a decision aligned with market expectations. The minutes highlight three significant signals:1. Slowing Balance Sheet ReductionFederal Reserve officials discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing the reduction of its nearly $6.8 trillion asset portfolio. This discussion strongly suggests that such measures are likely to be implemented in the near future. The primary reason for this consideration is the potential complications arising from the U.S. federal debt ceiling issue in the coming months, which could cause significant fluctuations in the Fed's reserve balances.2. No

Under typical circumstances, Fridays without major economic data releases are usually marked by subdued market movements. However, last Friday saw gold prices experience the largest single-day decline since the current rally began. Does this signify the start of a collapse in gold prices, or is it merely a false retreat by the bulls? To answer this question, one must analyze the underlying news event that triggered this decline.Over the weekend, reports emerged that since Donald Trump’s presidency began, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, with signs of potential negotiations on the horizon. U.S. officials are set to meet with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the conflict. Details surrounding the talks remain limited, except for the fact that th

As the COMEX gold futures price edges closer to the $3,000/oz threshold, the current gold market demonstrates a price rally driven by strengthened technical patterns and underlying spot arbitrage dynamics. This momentum is further characterized by two prominent features. With market-wide concerns that Trump’s tariff policies might impose duties on physical gold imported into the U.S., this speculation could push gold prices towards a short squeeze above 3,000 points. Thus, this issue warrants a closer examination.Two Unusual Features in the Gold Futures Market1. Expanding Cross-Market Price SpreadThe price spread between London spot gold and COMEX futures has widened to exceed 2.5 times the historical standard deviation. At present, this arbitrage creates a risk-free profit margin of over

Global financial markets experienced significant turbulence during the Spring Festival holiday period. The Trump administration's new tariff policies triggered a rollercoaster pattern in European and U.S. stock markets, with initial gains reversed, while Asian markets and international crude oil prices faced downward pressure. Notably, COMEX April gold futures hit a historic high of $2,872 per ounce on February 3. The critical question now is: How will gold prices evolve moving forward? Our analysis suggests that three fundamental bullish factors could propel gold to new highs if current conditions persist.I. Tariff Policies Amplify Market Volatility, Highlighting Gold's Safe-Haven Status1. Trump Policy Impact Exceeds ExpectationsThe February 1 executive order imposing 25% additional tarif