Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the contradiction in risk appetite in the capital market has become increasingly prominent, and commodity prices have also entered a stage of high volatility.Taking gold as an example, the price of gold has experienced a correction after experiencing the "crazy growth" . On April 22 local time, COMEX gold futures for June delivery fell 3.01%, the largest one-day drop since June 2022.Two factors "suppress" precious metalsFor a long time, geopolitics has been the first factor affecting the prices of gold and silver. With the gradual escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the market's demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has also increased simultaneously. Howeve

As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”. At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to g

Driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, market concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East and the interruption of energy supplies such as oil, international crude oil once soared sharply. The picture shows the price trend of the May WTI crude oil futures contract, which is currently hovering at $86.35.PictureFrom the perspective of supply and demand, the sluggish demand has led to no large-scale destocking even though OPEC continued to cut production. However, U.S. crude oil took the opportunity to seize market share and increased production and exports on a large scale. The global crude oil supply is not tight. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to the geopolitical crisis and speculative buying under the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Looking ah

The bulls in the crude oil market that continued in the first quarter have helped the price return to the central axis level we defined. With the emergence of high pressure and the small deviation between US stocks and stock indexes, we expect that it will be more difficult for oil prices to go up. For low buy/long investments, now may be the time to at least partially lock in profits.At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we introduced the composition of crude oil price range: above 95/100 is the level of selling crude oil reserves by the US government (Biden made clear), while below 70 US dollars is the level of buying back crude oil reserves. The 84 line in the middle of the two is defined as the central axis because of the obvious change of hands. Under the big shock m

From the market situation in the past few years, it is not difficult to find that the current US government has a very strong control over the financial sector, and their trading methods are also comfortable. Since the first quarter of last year, NVIDIA, the first AI concept, is still the leading core variety, and they have also promoted the overall bull market of US stocks. This year, another one pushed to the front desk is BTC, which is well known but not much involved.Once upon a time, many Wall Street giants also said that BTC was defined as a channel for fraud and money laundering. However, this thing has boarded the hall of ETF in a twinkling of an eye. It is obviously unreasonable to say that there is no intentional promotion from Biden administration. Behind this is naturally the f

On Thursday night, the price of gold continued to hit a record high, which indicated that the market fully expected to cut interest rates. However, when the market fully expects, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will come out and pour cold water on the market.After all, expectation management is one of the important tasks of the Federal Reserve, so no matter what he says, the key depends on how the Fed does its follow-up actions. Even if the interest rate cut is really delayed, it is only an adjustment to re-hype the interest rate cut expectation. The market does not think that you will really exceed expectations, unless this week's non-farm data can exceed expectations, which may bring some adjustments to asset prices.First, pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock indexS

At the end of the month, the news from the terrorist attacks in Moscow shocked the market again, and also caused investors to worry about geopolitical progress. So will this event become a new driving factor and dominate the market in the second quarter? My personal opinion is that the possibility is relatively low. Unless there are more actions and conflicts between the two sides, the market will digest this topic quickly.First of all, from the market feedback, at first glance, there is a certain degree of risk aversion, but in fact, the assets themselves still show signs of "fighting", which shows that the event itself is not of high magnitude. For example, the US dollar did rebound and rise, but as we said before, the US Dollar Index is in the form of diamond, so it is not necessary to

Except for those categories that have been fluctuating for a long time, most assets that performed strongly in the first quarter or even set a new record high have experienced weak upside in the near future. Interestingly, the two leading brothers who lead the rise are unexpectedly in the same pace in the medium and long term. With the emergence of adjustment, compared with the rapid and rapid sharp drop, the way that may be buffered by time is also an option.As we all know, NVIDIA is the standard-bearer of AI concept and the engine of the bull market of US stocks last year, and the crazy performance of Bitcoin in the past few months is obvious to all. Although there is a certain degree of correlation between the two, it is not difficult to find that such a high degree of positive correlat

The most difficult situation in financial markets is that the news does not match the market, or the market price suddenly riots, and you can't find any news that can explain it. Last week's gold market was a similar situation. There is suspense but not much in the Fed's interest rate cut, which is not enough to support the rapid upward movement of gold price (there is nothing wrong with rising more or less, but the speed is really unexpected). For gold prices, an unproven,However, the logic that may conform to the current market reason is that there are funds that think that the gold reserves stored in the United States are not enough to cope with the delivery in the financial market, that is, the forced market in futures terminology.Although this possibility is very rare, once there are

When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300. At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the pe