CY09
CY09
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avatarCY09
2022-05-01
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$prepare for another round of downward surprises. The company has an unprofitable model where if it raises fares too much, ppl will just switch to taxis. It's food delivery space has too many competitors as well. Target price is $1.10
avatarCY09
2022-05-06
I will keep most of my purchase as they are china ADRs, china ADRs have been sold down to low values where they are half the value of their US and Europe peers. The sell down has happened over the past year. You would have sold in may 2021 & go away.But this is May 2022, you should be holding to purchases. Maybe will consider selling in may 2023
avatarCY09
2022-08-01
Unprofitable company losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectoryBy then, about 1 billion share based compensation would have been issued which means dilution of about 10% of shares base. Furthermore we will not know how much profits it earns in 2026 (likely 200 mil based on growth rate). A sell and I expect shares to be worth in the $20s range 
avatarCY09
2022-05-06
has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 47% decline from current share price
avatarCY09
2022-08-27
$Twilio(TWLO)$Unprofitable company losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectoryBy then, about 1 billion share based compensation would have been issued which means dilution of about 10% of shares base. Furthermore we will not know how much profits it earns in 2026 (likely 200 mil based on growth rate). A sell and I expect shares to be worth in the $20s rangenge
avatarCY09
2022-05-18
$Sea Ltd(SE)$The latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining and losses from Shopee is growing. GMV has slowed and seamoney is not growing fastSea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.
avatarCY09
2022-06-18
$Tencent Music(TME)$The only profitable music streaming company in the world. However on a price to sales ratio, it is the lowest among all. My estimate based on average of ratios of all music streaming company is that TME is worth $10.80. which means a 100+% upside
avatarCY09
2022-06-08
$Shopify(SHOP)$Has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 40% decline from current share price
avatarCY09
2022-08-28
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$Heading lower. In the next 2-3 quarters, investors will see massive share dilution as grab has started giving out share based compensation to employees. My previous target price was $2.50 without dilution, assuming 15% dilution, expect $2.10 to be where it will go
avatarCY09
2022-06-17
$Shopify(SHOP)$HHas trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 30% decline from current share price
avatarCY09
2022-06-10
$Sea Ltd(SE)$Latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining and losses from Shopee is growing. GMV has slowed and seamoney is not growing fastSea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.
avatarCY09
2022-11-22
$Twilio(TWLO)$  Latest results show it is on course to losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectory
avatarCY09
2022-05-30
$Shopify(SHOP)$Has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 40% decline from current share price
avatarCY09
2022-05-22
$Shopify(SHOP)$Has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 40% decline from current share price
avatarCY09
2022-08-05
$Twilio(TWLO)$Unprofitable company losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectoryBy then, about 1 billion share based compensation would have been issued which means dilution of about 10% of shares base. Furthermore we will not know how much profits it earns in 2026 (likely 200 mil based on growth rate). A sell and I expect shares to be worth in the $20s range
avatarCY09
2022-05-27
$Sea Ltd(SE)$latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining, losses from Shopee grew and GMV has slowed. In a sentence, Sea Group's share prices looks set to go down further.Sea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.Furthermore, it seems Grab has keeping itself toe to toe with Sea despite the latter having a larger warchest. Grab's latest financial results shows it has slowed its cash burning rate and is able to survive 10 more quarters on its current cash balance. This means shopee has to balance burning 8 billion in cash o
avatarCY09
2022-07-03
$Sea Ltd(SE)$Latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining and losses from Shopee is growing. GMV has slowed and seamoney is not growing fastSea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.-to.-to.
avatarCY09
2022-07-15
$Sea Ltd(SE)$  A Giant in the Making that will take Advantage of China's Government BlunderSea is large in 2 aspects, it has a sprawling gaming, esports and e commerce empire in Garena and Shopee. These two are major players in South East Asia and Garena's games are one of the most downloaded in the world.However, it has competitors in the form of Tencent (Gaming/Esports) and Alibaba (Lazada) competing with them in the same space and region. While the giant 2 has deep financial pockets, they have a major obstacle in their own government that is reducing their profitability and cashflow generation ability. This is affecting their China business.Hence, I am of the view that because of the distraction in China, these 2 Chinese giants will have the
avatarCY09
2022-06-02
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$heading lower. In the next 2-3 quarters, investors will see massive share dilution as grab has started giving out share based compensation to employees. My previous target price was $2.50 without dilution, assuming 15% dilution, expect $2.10 to be where it will go
avatarCY09
2022-05-21
$Sea Ltd(SE)$latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining, losses from Shopee grew and GMV has slowed. In a sentence, Sea Group's share prices looks set to go down further.Sea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.Furthermore, it seems Grab has keeping itself toe to toe with Sea despite the latter having a larger warchest. Grab's latest financial results shows it has slowed its cash burning rate and is able to survive 10 more quarters on its current cash balance. This means shopee has to balance burning 8 billion in cash o

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