$United States Natural Gas Fund LP(UNG)$ Whilst AI stocks are all the rage at the moment, natural gas has been languishing... prices are extremely low now, below the cost of production. History has shown that when this happen the average price was always higher long term. The reason is similar to any commodity, producers will begin to curtail production causing supply to fall below demand & price move upwards as a consequence. A recent report from Baker Hughes showed that gas rig count is now 30% lower than a year ago. The 2 biggest natural gas producers in the U.S. had announced production cuts. Whilst I don't know when prices will rebound, given these statistics and historical low prices, the odds are in favor of a sign
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$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ looking at the previous halving events, there is usually a dip immediately after the halving.Probably a sell the news event) . After a short period it begins an strong upward trend. In the attached graph one can see the brown windows where bitcoin trends strongly upward when entering the window. In this cycle we have just entered the window. If history repeats itself like the previous cycle, be prepared for a strong upward cycle. Stay tuned
In the past halving cycles there is always some dip pre and for a short period, post halving. After that a massive run-up.See first chart. They say this cycle it's different because of the spot ETF participation. That means there is a lot of more institutional money in the game, less volatility ( compared to previous cycle but still very volatile compared to stocks). On top of that the HK spot EPF approval will bring even more institutional money. Maybe the run-up won't be as massive but from a supply-demand perspective, it only favors demand. If one can hold for a while, it's a higher probability bet that price will eventually go up. Chart wise, current price is hovering Slightly above confirmed support ( see chart yellow line). Together wi
$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ Bitcoin has another flush overnight and is near major support ( see chart). If this holds we can see a rebound and a quick swing trade opportunity to $66k for a near 10% gain.If this Support is broken it will flush down again. Of course it's anyone's guess especially with something as volatile as crypto. The plus is the approval of Bitcoin ETF in HK. Will that bring buying interest at this support.... watch this carefully. As BTC is volatile, please do your research thoroughly
Set Up for next week: Heightened geo-political tension & S&P technicals Breaking news of drone attacks by Iran on Israel following Friday's fall at the start of earnings season is the setting up next week's reading scene. With the prospect of less and less rate cuts compounded by heightened geo political tensions, market is increasingly nervous. This can be seen by the sudden spike in Vix on Friday ( second chart). Furthermore on a technical basis the S&P has broken out of its channel (3rd chart). All these doesn't set up well for the S&P to get beck into its support channel. We need a stellar report from Netflix or Fed officials coming out with more soothing messages on rate cuts. Stay very cautious
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@TigerOptions:Is Alibaba Worth Trading?
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@ETF Tracker:Riding the Gold Rush: Is Now the Time to Invest?
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@TigerOptions:Gold's Shine Could Dim the Stock Market's Glitter
Favorable Risk-Reward
Favorable Risk-Reward
Favorable Risk Reward. $United States Natural Gas Fund LP(UNG)$ Whilst AI stocks has been shooting to the moon, natural gas has been languishing... prices are extremely low now, below the cost of production. History has shown that when this happen the average price was always higher long term. The reason is similar to any commodities, producers will begin to curtail production causing supply to come below demand. A recent report from Baker Hughes showed that gas rig count is now 30% lower than a year ago. The 2 biggest natural gas producers in the U.S. had announced production cuts. Whilst I don't know when prices will rebound, given these statistics and historical low prices, the odds are in favor of a significant rebound. To me it's a highly favo
Overnight, BTC was flushed down for a second time in a week but was defended at the previous all time high mark around $69k+ and then rebounded ( see attached chart). For now the bulls have won. It is important that the BTC weekly price close higher than the previous week to keep the bullish momentum. I wonder how strong the defence is given that that the support has been got twice in a few days. For now I'll say it's strong given the strength of the rebound. Obviously this price action will influence the price of COIn and MSTR. Watch BTC price closely over the next few days
Yesterday BTC had a dip to $69k at the previous all time high and held.This is a strong sign of support by the buyers. Subsequently it drifted back up and hit passed $73k. As long as the support holds, it augurs well for both Coin and MSTR
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
This market rally has been led by NVIDIA.... to know if this is a pullback or start of a reversal one needs to look at the technicals of this stock. On Friday, NVIDIA's price action showed a reversal engulfing candle, the sign of price reversal. But there has been a few pullbacks before in this rally... why is this time is different ? The difference is the volume. On Friday, the reversal engulfing candle is enforced by huge volume... 106 million shares transacted, the highest volume in more than a year. That means it is not manipulated by a small group but a widespread action. If NVIDIA let the market up, it may be the one to lead the market down.... the start of a market reversal... watch the market closely over the next few weeks, especially NVIDIA.
Gold stock opportunities. Despite Gold prices hovering near all time, gold stocks are languishing. Gold stocks’ recent pounding is highly illogical, driven by irrational and unsustainable fear. Seeing gold stocks so darned low relative to high prevailing gold prices is an anti-bubble. The disparity between GDX ( gold miners) and GLD ( gold price) is at one of its highest. Historically, gold mining shares tracks gold prices. This means at some point, gold stocks will soon blast higher in a big mean reversion. That will be a great opportunity not to be missed. Good time to start accumulating gold miners
The current bull run is based on the assumption that the Fed has successfully slayed the inflation dragon. In fact a famous researcher JL Steno indicated the dramatic drop in yield recently is almost equivalent to 4 rate cuts already. This would be fine if indeed inflation does continue to drop. However, Steno pointed out that inflation story may not be over whilst the market already factored in the perfect conditions (& powered by liquidity). This leaves us very vulnerable to any surprises. Past the new year's rally, we may get surprises not in line with this perfect conditions. Be prepared for a drastic move in the other direction. At this level we should not FOMO in
Santa meets Goldilocks
November had been a great month. The US Economy is a Goldilocks situation, low unemployment with disinflation, enabling the Fed to hold off raising rates. Furthermore, it's the time of the year where traditionally stocks rally oftentimes known as the Santa Claus rally... Santa meets Goldilocks. Investors optimism is at all time high, everything is nearly perfect. The AAII sentiment index indicates pessimism is at all time low. Vix is trending at very low levels. This is when we should be reminded and be very cautious ... " be fearful when everyone is greedy. Don't FOMO
Santa meets Goldilocks
A short tribute to Charlie Munger
Last night, we saw the passing of one of the greatest investor of our time, Charlie Munger, he has many famous quotes, the one that is the foundation of Berkshire Hathaway's investment philosophy is “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting." Finding a few great companies and let the power of compounding multiply your wealth. Berkshire is a testament of this buy and hold strategy... Coca Cola, Apple, BoA, Amex ... over time an investment in BRK beats the S&P handsomely
A short tribute to Charlie Munger
Will US inflation continue to soften?
Recently, the US market has been on a tear especially after the release of June CPI data that showed 12 months inflation moderating to 3%, the lowest year on year increase in 2 years. A deeper look at the June CPI days, showed softer food prices contributed to the soft data. This is underpinned by lower oil prices compared to a year ago, where oil prices were over $100 . In recent weeks, oil prices have risen to a 3 months high and food prices have risen, driven by collapse of the Black Sea grain deal & india curbing rice export. These two price increases will reverse the factors that lead to the soft June CPI numbers. In fact BoA believes that June CPI print maybe the last for favorable YoY effect and project that inflation may rise again ( see their projection in the attached c
Will US inflation continue to soften?
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