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太境投资,支持某多,淘汰某宝!
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2startup
2020-12-31
ni'ce neo year
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2startup
2020-12-29
depolar & pluralism be the eco in midkingdom
@我是大夫:當前互聯網反壟斷的形勢及我們的任務
2startup
2020-12-29
he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland
@ItsChuck1:反壟斷之下,國內互聯網巨頭們集體大跌,作爲投資者我們該如何選擇
2startup
2020-12-25
nice.
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3、騰訊在商業化方面比較剋制,在金融領域十分審慎。騰訊優勢在遊戲,這個離民生比較遠,監管更多是防止青少年網","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333354102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333381308,"gmtCreate":1609172988504,"gmtModify":1704977719582,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","listText":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","text":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333381308","repostId":"333937351","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333937351,"gmtCreate":1609160637073,"gmtModify":1704977568821,"author":{"id":"3486552621547634","authorId":"3486552621547634","authorIdStr":"3486552621547634","name":"ItsChuck1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b660d900419f95ca98d01c2b015800","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486552621547634"},"themes":[],"title":"反壟斷之下,國內互聯網巨頭們集體大跌,作爲投資者我們該如何選擇","htmlText":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","listText":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","text":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b422633f4845c70c71ab5da0309d","width":"688","height":"459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333937351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339627286,"gmtCreate":1608830934745,"gmtModify":1704976826323,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339627286","repostId":"1167631435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":339627286,"gmtCreate":1608830934745,"gmtModify":1704976826323,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339627286","repostId":"1167631435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331999684,"gmtCreate":1609405149348,"gmtModify":1704978857300,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ni'ce neo year","listText":"ni'ce neo year","text":"ni'ce neo year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331999684","repostId":"1129349659","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333189027,"gmtCreate":1609209283969,"gmtModify":1704977839558,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"depolar & pluralism be the eco in midkingdom","listText":"depolar & pluralism be the eco in midkingdom","text":"depolar & pluralism be the eco in midkingdom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333189027","repostId":"333354102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333354102,"gmtCreate":1609188172406,"gmtModify":1704977759425,"author":{"id":"3451725711716572","authorId":"3451725711716572","authorIdStr":"3451725711716572","name":"我是大夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcd00e92ccccb5a053f3719276231bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451725711716572"},"themes":[],"title":"當前互聯網反壟斷的形勢及我們的任務","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>這兩天,市場對中概互聯反應激烈,我也一直在思考反壟斷究竟會對互聯網企業帶來多深多強的影響,現分享一下對總體形勢和具體個股的看法。 以我在中央國家機關多年的工作經歷,但凡政治局定調的方針,相關職能部門一定會迅速行動,落實中央的指示精神和決策部署。短期內會有組合拳打出來,不幸的企業各有各的不幸;長期看,互聯網反壟斷一定不是一陣風,過去的事情可以翻篇,但未來一定會持續遏制“互聯網+資本”的強勢擴張,任何民營和外資都不能傷及國本。在中國,首先要講政治! 我判斷互聯網企業整體在半年內都不會太好,殺估值是必然的,本來今年就漲太多。當市場適應監管常態化後,會慢慢地回暖。 可以肯定,監管不是要一杆子打翻整個互聯網行業,也不是要整死某個企業。互聯網的特點就是克服物理界限從而弗遠**,這也是互聯網企業以規模求效率的內在動因。理解這一點,你就會明白爲什麼互聯網企業更容易形成壟斷格局。除非徹底消滅互聯網,否則即便消滅掉某個巨頭,還會有新的玩家填補這個空白。世界是厭惡真空的! 騰訊 1、騰訊屬於產品和內容型企業,而非平臺類,理論上不是本輪反壟斷重點,但樹大招風難免被波及。 2、騰訊在通訊社交領域是絕對壟斷,這主要得益於微信等產品的先發優勢和迭代能力,也有國家刻意保護的成分。因爲通訊社交涉及國家安全(想想阿拉伯之春是怎麼爆發的?),一個配合服從國家監管的本土巨頭要遠好於一個碎片化的市場。基辛格曾說,讓我說服歐盟,我電話該打給誰?從全球範圍看,通訊社交軟件在一個國家或地區都是一種產品壟斷。 3、騰訊在商業化方面比較剋制,在金融領域十分審慎。騰訊優勢在遊戲,這個離民生比較遠,監管更多是防止青少年網","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>這兩天,市場對中概互聯反應激烈,我也一直在思考反壟斷究竟會對互聯網企業帶來多深多強的影響,現分享一下對總體形勢和具體個股的看法。 以我在中央國家機關多年的工作經歷,但凡政治局定調的方針,相關職能部門一定會迅速行動,落實中央的指示精神和決策部署。短期內會有組合拳打出來,不幸的企業各有各的不幸;長期看,互聯網反壟斷一定不是一陣風,過去的事情可以翻篇,但未來一定會持續遏制“互聯網+資本”的強勢擴張,任何民營和外資都不能傷及國本。在中國,首先要講政治! 我判斷互聯網企業整體在半年內都不會太好,殺估值是必然的,本來今年就漲太多。當市場適應監管常態化後,會慢慢地回暖。 可以肯定,監管不是要一杆子打翻整個互聯網行業,也不是要整死某個企業。互聯網的特點就是克服物理界限從而弗遠**,這也是互聯網企業以規模求效率的內在動因。理解這一點,你就會明白爲什麼互聯網企業更容易形成壟斷格局。除非徹底消滅互聯網,否則即便消滅掉某個巨頭,還會有新的玩家填補這個空白。世界是厭惡真空的! 騰訊 1、騰訊屬於產品和內容型企業,而非平臺類,理論上不是本輪反壟斷重點,但樹大招風難免被波及。 2、騰訊在通訊社交領域是絕對壟斷,這主要得益於微信等產品的先發優勢和迭代能力,也有國家刻意保護的成分。因爲通訊社交涉及國家安全(想想阿拉伯之春是怎麼爆發的?),一個配合服從國家監管的本土巨頭要遠好於一個碎片化的市場。基辛格曾說,讓我說服歐盟,我電話該打給誰?從全球範圍看,通訊社交軟件在一個國家或地區都是一種產品壟斷。 3、騰訊在商業化方面比較剋制,在金融領域十分審慎。騰訊優勢在遊戲,這個離民生比較遠,監管更多是防止青少年網","text":"$騰訊控股(00700)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$這兩天,市場對中概互聯反應激烈,我也一直在思考反壟斷究竟會對互聯網企業帶來多深多強的影響,現分享一下對總體形勢和具體個股的看法。 以我在中央國家機關多年的工作經歷,但凡政治局定調的方針,相關職能部門一定會迅速行動,落實中央的指示精神和決策部署。短期內會有組合拳打出來,不幸的企業各有各的不幸;長期看,互聯網反壟斷一定不是一陣風,過去的事情可以翻篇,但未來一定會持續遏制“互聯網+資本”的強勢擴張,任何民營和外資都不能傷及國本。在中國,首先要講政治! 我判斷互聯網企業整體在半年內都不會太好,殺估值是必然的,本來今年就漲太多。當市場適應監管常態化後,會慢慢地回暖。 可以肯定,監管不是要一杆子打翻整個互聯網行業,也不是要整死某個企業。互聯網的特點就是克服物理界限從而弗遠**,這也是互聯網企業以規模求效率的內在動因。理解這一點,你就會明白爲什麼互聯網企業更容易形成壟斷格局。除非徹底消滅互聯網,否則即便消滅掉某個巨頭,還會有新的玩家填補這個空白。世界是厭惡真空的! 騰訊 1、騰訊屬於產品和內容型企業,而非平臺類,理論上不是本輪反壟斷重點,但樹大招風難免被波及。 2、騰訊在通訊社交領域是絕對壟斷,這主要得益於微信等產品的先發優勢和迭代能力,也有國家刻意保護的成分。因爲通訊社交涉及國家安全(想想阿拉伯之春是怎麼爆發的?),一個配合服從國家監管的本土巨頭要遠好於一個碎片化的市場。基辛格曾說,讓我說服歐盟,我電話該打給誰?從全球範圍看,通訊社交軟件在一個國家或地區都是一種產品壟斷。 3、騰訊在商業化方面比較剋制,在金融領域十分審慎。騰訊優勢在遊戲,這個離民生比較遠,監管更多是防止青少年網","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333354102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333381308,"gmtCreate":1609172988504,"gmtModify":1704977719582,"author":{"id":"3571747364743154","authorId":"3571747364743154","authorIdStr":"3571747364743154","name":"2startup","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571747364743154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","listText":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","text":"he that believes may strand. mildness doesn't necessarily leads to push again in midland","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333381308","repostId":"333937351","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333937351,"gmtCreate":1609160637073,"gmtModify":1704977568821,"author":{"id":"3486552621547634","authorId":"3486552621547634","authorIdStr":"3486552621547634","name":"ItsChuck1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b660d900419f95ca98d01c2b015800","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486552621547634"},"themes":[],"title":"反壟斷之下,國內互聯網巨頭們集體大跌,作爲投資者我們該如何選擇","htmlText":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","listText":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","text":"先說下我的判斷:一、首先反壟斷和螞蟻這兩個事情我判斷對Alibaba是有中短期影響的,昨天調查組調查一天就結束調查、央行官媒發文,反壟斷和螞蟻的事情,都階段性告一段落,接下來是處罰和整改,央行官媒用詞偏中性,調查組用詞中性偏友好。PS:螞蟻沒上市,不在討論之列。二、但,也有長期影響的可能性,一是因爲如果阿里對二選一路徑依賴的話,反壟斷下阿里接下來的電商經營將面臨困難,給了PDD和JD機會,因爲加強反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張是長期政策,不會幾天就結束了。對阿里集團的整改也是需要時間的,不要看浙江省的消息,這事兒是中央層面的。具體整改措施沒有出來之前所謂抄底都是在賭博。阿里核心電商的利潤大概是一年150億美元,如果降到100億美元或是未來一兩年停止增長,那麼現在的估值依然很高。可以遇見的大概率事件:1、阿里巴巴取消二選一,那麼核心品類出淘去拼多多京東是必然的,利潤率會被削弱,利潤份額縮減,增長空間被限制。2、商家逃稅漏稅現象如果被打擊,那麼電商業務的利潤率也會被削弱,但這個影響可能沒那麼大。3、拼多多和京東的用戶數還在增長,尤其是拼多多將擁有8-9億活躍買家,如果sku再跟上來,對淘寶是足以致命性的挑戰。三、阿里巨量的SKU形成的規模效應和雙邊網絡效應、結合大量的電商基礎設施形成的護城河,目前來看還是很深的,阿里的人才密度、幹部板凳深度在全世界都是數一數二的,這些長期因素沒有變化。四、上邊的事情咱不懂,不好判斷,所以我們作爲投資人就要規避風險,超過自己認知能力邊界的就要規避,不要倖存者偏差,所以在螞蟻上市擱置之後我已經將持有的Alibaba減倉到之前持有量的10%五、我強調過好幾次,反壟斷能促進互聯網開放、繁榮,對不管有沒有壟斷地位的互聯網公司都是利好。六、我也強調過好多次,反壟斷反的是壟斷行爲,不是反壟斷地位,這些公司不存在被拆分的可能性,當然,未來的經營集中(M&A)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b422633f4845c70c71ab5da0309d","width":"688","height":"459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333937351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}