Expectations for 100bps dropped from 80% to 45% after both Fed officials commented. The market also welcome this. 100bps is not totally off the table though and with Canada central bank actually doing a 100bps few days ago, it set a precedent that Fed might just follow as well. Luckily the oil price had also come down during the last few days so the pressure on Fed to do 100bps is lesser. Else with the political pressure from Biden, Fed might give in and actually do 100bps. I believed the June 75bps instead of the planned 50bps is due to political pressure. Anyway, 2 more weeks to July FOMC, expecting a few more Fed officials to drop their hints. Let's see how it goes.

Will the rebound continue? Here are some food for thoughts. While the FOMC announcement on hike and QT meets market expectations, and Powell comments is more dovish this time, does it means there is a change to the general trend? Hikes will still come and to Fed, 2.4% is the neutral rate so more hikes will definitely come. QT is also going to start and will start to affect the liquidity eventually. So while the FOMC announcement looks dovish this time, more hikes and QT is unavoidable. Valuation will be affected and owners of high valuation stocks will need to be cautious. Tech stocks had a good run during 2020 and 2021 so they are one of those with higher than normal valuation.

The moment I read that the author is suggesting a 8% jump on Monday, I start to be wary. Sounds more like a article to pump price and induce FOMO. If a investor buy, it's because of its good business fundamentals, future growth, etc. Stock split did nothing to improve fundamental or growth. It only at most improve the liquidity of the stock, making it more accessible to more people. So if one really decide to buy on Monday itself, it's more of a move by short term trader/gambler to bet on short term movement. Hope they get their bets right.

Apple should still see a good earning report next week but the forward guidance might be reduce with the consumer demand falling. Also with the poor market sentiment, I don't think Apple will be able to hold its price. With its higher than historical PE, there is also greater chance for Apple to revert back to its norm. Also chance for Apple to remain standing is low. 

I'm expecting another 175 bps hike and the QT to show its effect on liquidity as it goes forward. I'm also expecting the inflation to come down towards the end of the year and Fed to start softening their stance. So I think the market has more room to dip, especially when the July earnings comes out. July earnings are forecasted to be not as good. But I hope the supply chain, Ukraine war, crude oil can improve by Oct/Nov so we can start seeing the market recover. So we may actually see the market going back upwards during Nov/Dec. So guess there will be a bit more pain before the recovery. Don't think the incoming storm will be a big one. Anyway, it's just my guessing.

Many Fed officials are already talking about it during the last 2 weeks but the market still decide to rally. Only when Powell talks about the same thing, the market finally reacted. Basically it's the same that Fed is always talking about. High rates of around 4% is needed, rates are here to stay for some time, and yes, there will be pain. Unemployment will go up, market will slow down and might even experience hard landing. Pain, soft/hard landing are already in the speeches during few months ago. It's a real bear market so let's not bluff ourselves. There will be some relief rally from time to time, even as much as 20%. Make use of it if you have the technical skill but do not mistake it as the start of a whole new bull. Take care and be cautious.

While I don't believe in 3) hold forever, the rest of the 3 are good advices. Just wanted to highlight on quality businesses on sales. While there are many hot businesses that claimed to 5-10x in near future, do note these companies are also carry much risks. There are those businesses that prove to others by becoming the king in their industry and make great profits, but there are also many that eventually don't make the cut and bankrupt/delist . The number of failures outnumbered the success cases by many times. It's just that we only remember the winners and forget about the losers. So the odds is not as high to pick a winner among so many. That's why it's safer to buy proven winners (strong profitable quality businesses) right from the start. While the chance of 5-10x will be low, but

It's a relief rally. Last few rebounds are very short, only 1-3 days. Not sure how long this rebound can last. Powell will be due for a speech on Tuesday. FOMC minutes will be out on Wednesday. Depending on how the Wall Street media portray these 2 events, the rally may extend or might be just cut short and resume it's downtrend. Don't hope for a reversal. It has not come yet. Good luck everyone and stay strong.

What is the chance of Fed doing a 100bps and its effect? Last month, the guidance from Fed for July hike is 50-75. But we know that Fed guidance is not worth anything. How many times had Fed guidance changed during the last minute? June 75bs hike will be a good example for last minute change to 75bps hike just because of May high CPI. Now there is 2 weeks before 26-27 July FOMC. More than enough time for Fed to drop hints. Bostic from Fed had start the ball rolling by saying it's on the table. In my opinion, 100bps can be very possible. But what's the implications? 2Y/10Y yield curve was inverted since last week and start to widen even more with the 2Y yield spiking up today due to market expectations of 100 bps hike. We know prolonged inverted yield of higher magnitude often point to inco

Tomorrow, Powell report to the Senate will reveal more info on Fed plans on how they are going to tackle inflation and their views on the economy. Expecting this week to be volatile with Wall St media interpreting this to fit and push their agenda. What Powell going to say is not important since Fed had already reveal their current plans during last week FOMC. There should be not much new info. What's important is how the media going to interpret it and push the market up or down. If pushing the market up, treat it as a relief rally that will not last more than a few days. Don't get tricked into chasing the rising prices. At this moment, it's still not time to be greedy. Good luck to all.

Need to weight the pro and con. The environment forward will be difficult since we have seen advertisement revenue is dropping for many companies. This revenue will continue to drop as more companies are looking at reducing the expenses. The pro is that Meta is still very profitable (though it's margin is declining) and have good positive cashflow. Meta is also actively reducing their expenses. It's PE is also at an attractive valuation now. For those who believed in Meta, it is at a good buying price. For those who think Meta will be phased out by other social media, then avoid it. It's up to individual perception of this company and its future. (Not going to mention Metaverse as it's just too far in the future for any consideration)

White House had already come out during Monday to warn about the "high" CPI numbers for June. Managing of expectations, hoping the market will not react too badly on Wed. So we can expect June CPI numbers to be very bad if they actually had to come out to give "warning" and downplay it's significance . There is even a fake report on CPI numbers today saying June CPI is 10.2 and US BLS had came out to discredit it. But no smoke without fire. Let's see if June CPI will exceed 9. Forecast is 8.8 and May CPI is 8.6. Also, 90% had predicted Fed July hike is 75bps. That align with what a few Fed officials spoke during the last 2 weeks. The major change is actually that there is no more expectations of 50 bps hike, but instead, some 10% of the market participants are predictin

People from Fed got more hawkish again and said there is no plans for pause for hike in Sept and it depends on inflation. A few banks come out to warn about economy slow down and market ahead might be rocky. Yet these few negative news don't make any impact and market continues to grind higher. But I don't think this is a reversal. Let's hope this rebound maintain a bit longer. Take note that FOMC will be on 14-15 June. The hike of 0.5 is almost confirmed and should already be priced into the market. QT just started but nobody know the actual impact. But we should only see in later this year when the QT effects start to stack up month after month. So expecting the market to bounce within the range of 4000-4300 for June. Do not see any news for bull/bear to break this range.

Powell to give his testimony at the Congress later today. Guess the market will be volatile. Will market open low then pulled up as Powell speaks? I do not know. But the last few times, the market is pulled up but fell back on the following day. Playing short term is equivalent to guessing. We may get it right, or we may get it wrong. Some good technical traders will have a better winning rates. But for normal folks like us, stick to longer term and observe the macro environment. Watch the July earnings and make plans accordingly. Normal folks will have a higher winning rate if we invest with a longer time horizon. So just ignore the daily movement unless you are a good short term trader.

Powell is going to speak again tonight since it's a 2 day testimony. Based on what he said yesterday, it's apparent that he had hinted again of the economy might go into recession. He acknowledged that rising interest rate could drive the economy into recession but that is not Fed intended outcome. Also mentioned 100bps hike is not off the table. Fed is committed to bringing down inflation. All these means that there will be more pain/decline to come in the months forwards and Fed will not turn around from its aggressive policy of hikes/QT. Guess the market bottom has not come yet. For mid/long term investors, we can wait for a few months until we see the Fed starting to soften it's stance. For short term traders, there will be a lot of opportunities with the current volatile market. Good

Sideway movement for the last few days. Tech had a good bounce after being sold down. CPI readings on Friday might break this sideway movement. Breaking upwards or downwards, it's anyone's guess. But even if breaking upwards, the room for upside is limited. As such, the reward to bet on upwards movement is too low for the risk involved. My reasoning for limited room for upside is due to lower earning forecast. Strengthening of USD is hurting the profit of big companies that have a lot of overseas sales. Also, US consumer demand starts to taper off with retailers reporting increase in inventory and also drop in saving in US families. Consumer spending make up of 70% of the GDP. Good thing is consumer spending rise in Apr but can it keep up with the fall in savings and rising

(TLDR : Fed hike/QT will continue its aggressive course regardless of Friday CPI)8th day of sideway movement. Market is waiting for CPI numbers on Friday before making its move. Breaking upwards or breaking downwards, we do not know. But what I do know is that even if CPI number is slightly lower, meaning there is a "chance" that inflation had past its peak, Fed will still carry on with June/July of 0.5% hike each. Firstly, Fed look at few months of data before it can be convinced that inflation reached and come down from its peak. So just May CPI alone is not enough to make Fed changed its course. We also need June/Jul/Aug CPI data to convince Fed of any change of its current policy. Next, Fed current hike and QT is actually too small to effectively bring down inflation fast. Pa

Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as media

He said this 75 basis point hike is rare and such move will not be common. But he also mentioned for July hike, it may be 50 or 75. Having two 75 basis points hike in a row is viewed as not common? Basically he is trying to sooth the investors sentiment. So the market is currently reacting positively. But after people calm down and read into detail (3 - 3.5% by end 2022, unemployment will go up), how will the market react? Previous few times, market went up after Powell speech and come straight down on the next day. Will this time he the same?

From a business perspective, Apple is a company with super strong cashflow. It's revenue growth is decent too. The brand loyalty is strong and they have the pricing power. But when we look at the current macro environment, where valuation of companies are heavily cut across all industries, it is hard to justify higher price/valuation. Many strong companies with high growth in revenue and profit, previously are rewarded with high valuation. They have all come down greatly from their highs. Apple had come down similarly and based on its historical PE, it seems that there may be another 25-30% to come down. Not saying Apple will come down that much, but saying there is a possibility. Apple definitely is worth picking up as it comes to the 120s region. Just remember to save some cash to pick u