Jordathj personal page - To The Moon

Jordathj

Jordathj

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2021-06-18

Yes, for now not all The country are using ELectric Vehicle yet. Now it may be delayed. But Most of the country already announce that, They will stop selling patrol cars by 2025 and fully EV’s on 2030. For now surely will delay but by than, there will be more Swap Station when it’s fully EV.

NIO Is Winning

2021-06-18

Yes!$NIO Inc.(NIO)$is the best EV

NIO Is Winning

2021-06-18

Like and comment thanks

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential

2021-06-18

Like and comment thanks

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential

2021-06-18

Help like my comment thanks

Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P

2021-04-23

Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.

Why crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading

2021-04-21

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Still up.

2021-03-12

$UBS Group AG(UBS)$$UBS Group AG(UBS)$Thank You!!

2021-02-23

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?

2021-02-23

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?

2021-02-23

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Pretty dead

2021-02-22

Sounds good for decades

Palantir: Estimates And Expectations

2021-02-21

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$too high

2021-02-20

Waiting t boom

2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth

2021-02-20

Yes hoping for more good news

Taiwan says receives U.S. letter on auto chips, firms are doing what they should

2021-02-20

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Buy more than panic sell

2021-02-19

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$everythingis bloody red period except for cciv

2021-02-19

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$Todays

2021-02-18

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$anyone can advise me, should I hold this?

2021-02-18

$SOS Limited(SOS)$Dip abit and it go up.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Now it may be delayed. But Most of the country already announce that, They will stop selling patrol cars by 2025 and fully EV’s on 2030. For now surely will delay but by than, there will be more Swap Station when it’s fully EV.","listText":"Yes, for now not all The country are using ELectric Vehicle yet. Now it may be delayed. But Most of the country already announce that, They will stop selling patrol cars by 2025 and fully EV’s on 2030. For now surely will delay but by than, there will be more Swap Station when it’s fully EV.","text":"Yes, for now not all The country are using ELectric Vehicle yet. Now it may be delayed. But Most of the country already announce that, They will stop selling patrol cars by 2025 and fully EV’s on 2030. For now surely will delay but by than, there will be more Swap Station when it’s fully EV.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166277653","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166279847,"gmtCreate":1624014680989,"gmtModify":1703826579846,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>is the best EV","listText":"Yes!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>is the best EV","text":"Yes!$NIO Inc.(NIO)$is the best EV","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166279847","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166949947,"gmtCreate":1623989532389,"gmtModify":1703825863417,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166949947","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574339928552137","authorId":"3574339928552137","name":"IsaacHuat93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574339928552137","authorIdStr":"3574339928552137"},"content":"CommeNt BaCk pls","text":"CommeNt BaCk pls","html":"CommeNt BaCk pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166954230,"gmtCreate":1623989447620,"gmtModify":1703825860438,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166954230","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166955018,"gmtCreate":1623989377034,"gmtModify":1703825857995,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like my comment thanks","listText":"Help like my comment thanks","text":"Help like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166955018","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144286417","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623970062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144286417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144286417","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 17  - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.The marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous d","content":"<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 06:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","AAPL":"苹果","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","DOG":"道指反向ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","NAB.AU":"NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD","03086":"华夏纳指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144286417","content_text":"June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.\nThe marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.\nMany investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.\nFed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.\n\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.\nTechnology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.\nInvestors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.\nMeanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.\nThe Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.\nInterest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.\nThe strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&P sectors.\nOther economically sensitive stocks, including materials and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574928367638029","authorId":"3574928367638029","name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorIdStr":"3574928367638029"},"content":"done please comment n like back","text":"done please comment n like back","html":"done please comment n like back"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372397805,"gmtCreate":1619175556107,"gmtModify":1704720792259,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","listText":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","text":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372397805","repostId":"1109677270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109677270","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619165270,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109677270?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109677270","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading after Bitcoin falling more than 8% as cryptos stumble ove","content":"<p>Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Bitcoin falling more&nbsp;than&nbsp;8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Riot Blockchain&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%,Marathon&nbsp;Digital,The9&nbsp;and&nbsp;SOS&nbsp;Limited&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;8%,Bit Digital&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;7%,Coinbase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1b71a6465ba625a78a685cbdd8d4f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.</p><p>Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.</p><p>\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 16:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Bitcoin falling more&nbsp;than&nbsp;8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Riot Blockchain&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%,Marathon&nbsp;Digital,The9&nbsp;and&nbsp;SOS&nbsp;Limited&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;8%,Bit Digital&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;7%,Coinbase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1b71a6465ba625a78a685cbdd8d4f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.</p><p>Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.</p><p>\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NCTY":"第九城市","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","SOS":"SOS Limited","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109677270","content_text":"Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading after Bitcoin falling more than 8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan Inc. and Riot Blockchain fell more than 9%,Marathon Digital,The9 and SOS Limited fell nearly 8%,Bit Digital fell nearly 7%,Coinbase fell nearly 4%.Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378388104,"gmtCreate":1619001198308,"gmtModify":1704718102728,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>Still up.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>Still up.&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$Still up.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01458777fed8f55fa0c153d55a88362d","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378388104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563489168295977","authorIdStr":"3563489168295977"},"content":"comment and like","text":"comment and like","html":"comment and like"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328530276,"gmtCreate":1615538572995,"gmtModify":1704784262497,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a>Thank You!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a>Thank You!!","text":"$UBS Group AG(UBS)$$UBS Group AG(UBS)$Thank You!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1817b095ad69312e3a632f9037b2a7c7","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328530276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574675776285067","authorId":"3574675776285067","name":"Jack123321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a71a64ebe9e6180221eea4b12bb0f11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574675776285067","authorIdStr":"3574675776285067"},"content":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???","text":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???","html":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369445306,"gmtCreate":1614073209205,"gmtModify":1704887642031,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffde8eae72eeece420c427823b371ff","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369445306","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576795207143662","authorId":"3576795207143662","name":"NestBird8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd73912d8ca3d6a9b1a4922c16a149a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576795207143662","authorIdStr":"3576795207143662"},"content":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing","text":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing","html":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369272019,"gmtCreate":1614053726431,"gmtModify":1704887379379,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f77a6069e3842608c0d8ea7d13a5756","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369272019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369150568,"gmtCreate":1614009755854,"gmtModify":1704886949012,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Pretty dead","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Pretty dead","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Pretty dead","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908b28f5d7015081d6a5916344cd5782","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369150568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360751869,"gmtCreate":1613982812851,"gmtModify":1704886415471,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","listText":"Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","text":"Sounds good for decades","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360751869","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149321056","pubTimestamp":1613976796,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149321056?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-22 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Estimates And Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149321056","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir has all the characteristics of a great business.</li>\n <li>Let's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?</li>\n <li>The market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.</li>\n <li>At a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Overview of Palantir</b></p>\n<p>PLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.</p>\n<p>PLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.</p>\n<p>As a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.</p>\n<p>Finally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?</p>\n<p><b>FAANGM Performance as a Benchmark</b></p>\n<p>To get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1794cd64edb9d2cf465bd93ca4613257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)</span></p>\n<p>I wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Using the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.</p>\n<p>What scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a98f252b09771038babb2096895962\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Another option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75d86a5b8ac1fd5b09bdfe1e607580b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f249ea7966b4bc3fed90d01c49c315\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>The primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.</p>\n<p><b>Caveats and Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.</p>\n<p>The second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Estimates And Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Estimates And Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 14:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149321056","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\nThe market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.\nAt a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.\n\nPalantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.\nA Quick Overview of Palantir\nPLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.\nPLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.\nAs a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.\nFinally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?\nFAANGM Performance as a Benchmark\nTo get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)\nI wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.\nPalantir Valuation Scenarios\nUsing the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.\nWhat scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nAnother option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nFinally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nThe primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.\nCaveats and Risks\nThere are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.\nThe second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"\nConclusion\nIt is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360841571,"gmtCreate":1613891079993,"gmtModify":1704885741506,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>too high","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>too high","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$too high","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798e33891c18013ba1b2b17a8770f5c4","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360841571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360974887,"gmtCreate":1613822444849,"gmtModify":1704885353480,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting t boom","listText":"Waiting t boom","text":"Waiting t boom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360974887","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143100356","pubTimestamp":1613792715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143100356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143100356","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.</p><p>Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.</p><p>Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.</p><p>All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…</p><p><b>NIO Inc.NIO</b></p><p>Every major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.</p><p>NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.</p><p>Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.</p><p>With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.</p><p>NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6233d1784a5cb7db62b437f7632a3f\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.</p><p>At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.</p><p>NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.</p><p>Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.</p><p><b>CrowdStrikeCRWD</b></p><p>CrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.</p><p>Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.</p><p>CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f684cfbac7ba46e2cf8ab6e063461a2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.</p><p>The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.</p><p>CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”</p><p>Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.</p><p>In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.</p><p>CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.</p><p><b>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</b>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143100356","content_text":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…NIO Inc.NIOEvery major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.CrowdStrikeCRWDCrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360975240,"gmtCreate":1613822331880,"gmtModify":1704885352183,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes hoping for more good news","listText":"Yes hoping for more good news","text":"Yes hoping for more good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360975240","repostId":"2112840515","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2112840515","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1613792209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112840515?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan says receives U.S. letter on auto chips, firms are doing what they should","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112840515","media":"Reuters","summary":"TAIPEI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said on Saturday she had received a ","content":"<html><body><p>TAIPEI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said on Saturday she had received a letter from the White House on the global shortage of auto chips and Taiwanese semiconductor firms are \"doing what they should\" to address the problem.</p><p>   Tight chip supplies have caused problems for auto makers globally, who in some cases are having to curtail production.</p><p>   This week U.S. President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Brian Deese, thanked Wang for her efforts to resolve the shortage in coordination with the island's manufacturers. </p><p>   Wang told reporters that she had received the letter on Friday night, adding she had previously met with local chip makers on the issue, referring to meetings she has held in recent weeks.  </p><p>   \"Going forward, manufacturers are doing what they should,\" she said.</p><p>   This is a problem affecting car makers around the world, including in the United States, Japan and Europe, and Taiwan is an important supplier, Wang added.</p><p>   \"We are helping as much as we can,\" she said.</p><p>   The shortage has affected Volkswagen   , Ford Motor Co   , Subaru Corp   , Toyota Motor Corp   , Nissan Motor Co Ltd   , Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and other car makers.</p><p>   Chip makers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC)    , the world's largest contract chip maker, have pledged to prioritise production. </p><p>   The issue has become a diplomatic <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. As well as the letter from the United States, Germany's economy minister has also written to Wang asking for help.</p><p> (Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)</p><p>((ben.blanchard@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan says receives U.S. letter on auto chips, firms are doing what they should</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan says receives U.S. letter on auto chips, firms are doing what they should\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-20 11:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>TAIPEI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said on Saturday she had received a letter from the White House on the global shortage of auto chips and Taiwanese semiconductor firms are \"doing what they should\" to address the problem.</p><p>   Tight chip supplies have caused problems for auto makers globally, who in some cases are having to curtail production.</p><p>   This week U.S. President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Brian Deese, thanked Wang for her efforts to resolve the shortage in coordination with the island's manufacturers. </p><p>   Wang told reporters that she had received the letter on Friday night, adding she had previously met with local chip makers on the issue, referring to meetings she has held in recent weeks.  </p><p>   \"Going forward, manufacturers are doing what they should,\" she said.</p><p>   This is a problem affecting car makers around the world, including in the United States, Japan and Europe, and Taiwan is an important supplier, Wang added.</p><p>   \"We are helping as much as we can,\" she said.</p><p>   The shortage has affected Volkswagen   , Ford Motor Co   , Subaru Corp   , Toyota Motor Corp   , Nissan Motor Co Ltd   , Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and other car makers.</p><p>   Chip makers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC)    , the world's largest contract chip maker, have pledged to prioritise production. </p><p>   The issue has become a diplomatic <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. As well as the letter from the United States, Germany's economy minister has also written to Wang asking for help.</p><p> (Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)</p><p>((ben.blanchard@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","F":"福特汽车","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112840515","content_text":"TAIPEI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said on Saturday she had received a letter from the White House on the global shortage of auto chips and Taiwanese semiconductor firms are \"doing what they should\" to address the problem.   Tight chip supplies have caused problems for auto makers globally, who in some cases are having to curtail production.   This week U.S. President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Brian Deese, thanked Wang for her efforts to resolve the shortage in coordination with the island's manufacturers.    Wang told reporters that she had received the letter on Friday night, adding she had previously met with local chip makers on the issue, referring to meetings she has held in recent weeks.     \"Going forward, manufacturers are doing what they should,\" she said.   This is a problem affecting car makers around the world, including in the United States, Japan and Europe, and Taiwan is an important supplier, Wang added.   \"We are helping as much as we can,\" she said.   The shortage has affected Volkswagen   , Ford Motor Co   , Subaru Corp   , Toyota Motor Corp   , Nissan Motor Co Ltd   , Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and other car makers.   Chip makers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC)    , the world's largest contract chip maker, have pledged to prioritise production.    The issue has become a diplomatic one. As well as the letter from the United States, Germany's economy minister has also written to Wang asking for help. (Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)((ben.blanchard@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360975026,"gmtCreate":1613822188965,"gmtModify":1704885351537,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Buy more than panic sell","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Buy more than panic sell","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Buy more than panic sell","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c0987899b31a14c41ab12a614dcb5c","width":"1125","height":"3437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360975026","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387901692,"gmtCreate":1613705246716,"gmtModify":1704883880014,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>everythingis bloody red period except for cciv&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>everythingis bloody red period except for cciv&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$everythingis bloody red period except for cciv","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6eefe6228a3ab71b3eed51baf9ae45","width":"1125","height":"3707"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387901692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387903958,"gmtCreate":1613705125874,"gmtModify":1704883880502,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>Todays","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>Todays","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$Todays","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d36cb51d1191b2120756e460aa7043","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387903958","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384286486,"gmtCreate":1613656500345,"gmtModify":1704883280690,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15cf835f5be346932b1467640ba3bcc","width":"1125","height":"3617"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384286486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556687184992627","authorId":"3556687184992627","name":"kC247","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556687184992627","authorIdStr":"3556687184992627"},"content":"Do you have position? [Question]","text":"Do you have position? [Question]","html":"Do you have position? [Question]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384342259,"gmtCreate":1613619490471,"gmtModify":1704882792964,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Dip abit and it go up.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Dip abit and it go up.","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$Dip abit and it go up.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc25635bf8bc181e41db831587cdfa80","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384342259","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":328530276,"gmtCreate":1615538572995,"gmtModify":1704784262497,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a>Thank You!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$UBS Group AG(UBS)$</a>Thank You!!","text":"$UBS Group AG(UBS)$$UBS Group AG(UBS)$Thank You!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1817b095ad69312e3a632f9037b2a7c7","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328530276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574675776285067","authorId":"3574675776285067","name":"Jack123321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a71a64ebe9e6180221eea4b12bb0f11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574675776285067","authorIdStr":"3574675776285067"},"content":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???","text":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???","html":"Lol, profit 153k%. Solid???"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369445306,"gmtCreate":1614073209205,"gmtModify":1704887642031,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$I think that the merging is a good news but I don’t understand why people are selling off. Anyone can tell me why?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffde8eae72eeece420c427823b371ff","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369445306","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576795207143662","authorId":"3576795207143662","name":"NestBird8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd73912d8ca3d6a9b1a4922c16a149a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576795207143662","authorIdStr":"3576795207143662"},"content":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing","text":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing","html":"Because of Overvalutation of the company meaning each stock roughly worth $15 Only. Retail buy the rumour sell the news. Welcome to lesson #1 Of investing"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386242574,"gmtCreate":1613190201698,"gmtModify":1704879354612,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>Best price to hold for longterm.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>Best price to hold for longterm.","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$Best price to hold for longterm.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd852faa1d61b358e539a9c62dc6bc5f","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386242574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565330354273383","authorId":"3565330354273383","name":"jrzxc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2621a3e917e8375d70efee5c05d2ca63","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565330354273383","authorIdStr":"3565330354273383"},"content":"awesome cost basis!","text":"awesome cost basis!","html":"awesome cost basis!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369150568,"gmtCreate":1614009755854,"gmtModify":1704886949012,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Pretty dead","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Pretty dead","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Pretty dead","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908b28f5d7015081d6a5916344cd5782","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369150568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378388104,"gmtCreate":1619001198308,"gmtModify":1704718102728,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>Still up.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>Still up.&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$Still up.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01458777fed8f55fa0c153d55a88362d","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378388104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563489168295977","authorIdStr":"3563489168295977"},"content":"comment and like","text":"comment and like","html":"comment and like"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385865620,"gmtCreate":1613532275060,"gmtModify":1704881700740,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That’s bad&nbsp;","listText":"That’s bad&nbsp;","text":"That’s bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385865620","repostId":"2112887342","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2112887342","pubTimestamp":1613532092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112887342?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'We still believe the market is ripe for a pullback': Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112887342","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"With the markets at all time highs, \"corrections may be coming,\" followed by more gains, says Tony D","content":"<p>With the markets at all time highs, \"corrections may be coming,\" followed by more gains, says Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity.</p>\n<p>\"We still believe the market is ripe for a pullback, but the focus should remain on our core fundamental thesis and the global reflation theme,\" Dwyer wrote in a note to investors.</p>\n<p>Dwyer highlights the Federal Reserve's focus on obtaining sustainably higher inflation as well as money availability at historic levels.</p>\n<p>The \"economy is just in the beginning of a long-duration recovery, consensus EPS forecasts are still too conservative, and like 2010 any valuation contraction should be a result of a sharp EPS ramp rather than something more onerous,\" he noted.</p>\n<p>Early during Tuesday's trading session the Dow (^DJI), the S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) all touchedrecord highsagain, an incredible comeback from almost a year ago when the pandemic was shutting down economies.</p>\n<p>\"The macro backdrop and market action coming off the March 2020 low continues to track the gains coming out of the Great Financial Crisis, which means corrections may be coming followed by even more gains,\" he added.</p>\n<p>\"Despite the prospect of a potential pullback, our investment themes remain in place given historic excess liquidity fueling a synchronized global recovery,\" said the note.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'We still believe the market is ripe for a pullback': Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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gains, says Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity.\n\"We still believe the market is ripe for a pullback, but the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-still-believe-the-market-is-ripe-for-a-pullback-analyst-185301278.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-still-believe-the-market-is-ripe-for-a-pullback-analyst-185301278.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112887342","content_text":"With the markets at all time highs, \"corrections may be coming,\" followed by more gains, says Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity.\n\"We still believe the market is ripe for a pullback, but the focus should remain on our core fundamental thesis and the global reflation theme,\" Dwyer wrote in a note to investors.\nDwyer highlights the Federal Reserve's focus on obtaining sustainably higher inflation as well as money availability at historic levels.\nThe \"economy is just in the beginning of a long-duration recovery, consensus EPS forecasts are still too conservative, and like 2010 any valuation contraction should be a result of a sharp EPS ramp rather than something more onerous,\" he noted.\nEarly during Tuesday's trading session the Dow (^DJI), the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) all touchedrecord highsagain, an incredible comeback from almost a year ago when the pandemic was shutting down economies.\n\"The macro backdrop and market action coming off the March 2020 low continues to track the gains coming out of the Great Financial Crisis, which means corrections may be coming followed by even more gains,\" he added.\n\"Despite the prospect of a potential pullback, our investment themes remain in place given historic excess liquidity fueling a synchronized global recovery,\" said the note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372397805,"gmtCreate":1619175556107,"gmtModify":1704720792259,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","listText":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","text":"Surely gonna have rioting soon in US.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372397805","repostId":"1109677270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109677270","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619165270,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109677270?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109677270","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading after Bitcoin falling more than 8% as cryptos stumble ove","content":"<p>Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Bitcoin falling more&nbsp;than&nbsp;8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Riot Blockchain&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%,Marathon&nbsp;Digital,The9&nbsp;and&nbsp;SOS&nbsp;Limited&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;8%,Bit Digital&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;7%,Coinbase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1b71a6465ba625a78a685cbdd8d4f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.</p><p>Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.</p><p>\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 16:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Bitcoin falling more&nbsp;than&nbsp;8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Riot Blockchain&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%,Marathon&nbsp;Digital,The9&nbsp;and&nbsp;SOS&nbsp;Limited&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;8%,Bit Digital&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;7%,Coinbase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1b71a6465ba625a78a685cbdd8d4f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.</p><p>Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.</p><p>\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NCTY":"第九城市","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","SOS":"SOS Limited","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109677270","content_text":"Crypto stocks tumbled in premarket trading after Bitcoin falling more than 8% as cryptos stumble over Biden tax plans.Canaan Inc. and Riot Blockchain fell more than 9%,Marathon Digital,The9 and SOS Limited fell nearly 8%,Bit Digital fell nearly 7%,Coinbase fell nearly 4%.Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered hefty losses on Friday amid fears that U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes will curb investment in digital assets.Bitcoin slumped 8% to below $48000 / piece in a third straight session of losses while Ether and XPR suffered double digit tumbles.\"The crypto currency came under fresh pressure on the Biden tax headlines,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, is on track for a 15% loss on the week. However, the latest tumbles come in the wake of a sharp rally with Bitcoin still up 65% since the start of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369272019,"gmtCreate":1614053726431,"gmtModify":1704887379379,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$What happen to CCIV? After post market closes the price drop to 40.00. The announcement o Churchill and Lucid is today 23/02 8.30pm right?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f77a6069e3842608c0d8ea7d13a5756","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369272019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360974887,"gmtCreate":1613822444849,"gmtModify":1704885353480,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting t boom","listText":"Waiting t boom","text":"Waiting t boom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360974887","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143100356","pubTimestamp":1613792715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143100356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143100356","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.</p><p>Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.</p><p>Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.</p><p>All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…</p><p><b>NIO Inc.NIO</b></p><p>Every major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.</p><p>NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.</p><p>Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.</p><p>With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.</p><p>NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6233d1784a5cb7db62b437f7632a3f\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.</p><p>At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.</p><p>NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.</p><p>Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.</p><p><b>CrowdStrikeCRWD</b></p><p>CrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.</p><p>Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.</p><p>CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f684cfbac7ba46e2cf8ab6e063461a2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.</p><p>The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.</p><p>CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”</p><p>Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.</p><p>In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.</p><p>CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.</p><p><b>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</b>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143100356","content_text":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…NIO Inc.NIOEvery major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.CrowdStrikeCRWDCrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360751869,"gmtCreate":1613982812851,"gmtModify":1704886415471,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","listText":"Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","text":"Sounds good for decades","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360751869","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149321056","pubTimestamp":1613976796,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149321056?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-22 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Estimates And Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149321056","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir has all the characteristics of a great business.</li>\n <li>Let's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?</li>\n <li>The market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.</li>\n <li>At a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Overview of Palantir</b></p>\n<p>PLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.</p>\n<p>PLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.</p>\n<p>As a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.</p>\n<p>Finally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?</p>\n<p><b>FAANGM Performance as a Benchmark</b></p>\n<p>To get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1794cd64edb9d2cf465bd93ca4613257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)</span></p>\n<p>I wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Using the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.</p>\n<p>What scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a98f252b09771038babb2096895962\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Another option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75d86a5b8ac1fd5b09bdfe1e607580b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f249ea7966b4bc3fed90d01c49c315\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>The primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.</p>\n<p><b>Caveats and Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.</p>\n<p>The second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Estimates And Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Estimates And Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 14:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149321056","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\nThe market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.\nAt a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.\n\nPalantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.\nA Quick Overview of Palantir\nPLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.\nPLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.\nAs a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.\nFinally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?\nFAANGM Performance as a Benchmark\nTo get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)\nI wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.\nPalantir Valuation Scenarios\nUsing the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.\nWhat scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nAnother option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nFinally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nThe primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.\nCaveats and Risks\nThere are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.\nThe second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"\nConclusion\nIt is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383752870,"gmtCreate":1612897947490,"gmtModify":1704875806041,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> It’s going UP!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> It’s going UP!!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ It’s going UP!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d29e8ba839a85b4681698ea07da80e8","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383752870","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574217232286803","authorId":"3574217232286803","name":"xiaowuPro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8439c65ea7b47633f64ca4f32acee0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574217232286803","authorIdStr":"3574217232286803"},"content":"I also own this company","text":"I also own this company","html":"I also own this company"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384286486,"gmtCreate":1613656500345,"gmtModify":1704883280690,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$anyone can advise me, should I hold this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15cf835f5be346932b1467640ba3bcc","width":"1125","height":"3617"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384286486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556687184992627","authorId":"3556687184992627","name":"kC247","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556687184992627","authorIdStr":"3556687184992627"},"content":"Do you have position? [Question]","text":"Do you have position? [Question]","html":"Do you have position? [Question]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382946874,"gmtCreate":1613354912098,"gmtModify":1704880011331,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>It’s going up bit by bit&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>It’s going up bit by bit&nbsp;","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$It’s going up bit by bit","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd852faa1d61b358e539a9c62dc6bc5f","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382946874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388697333,"gmtCreate":1613052999622,"gmtModify":1704877829453,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>izzit still a good buy?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>izzit still a good buy?","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$izzit still a good buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6712dbfa47e5b4b99a94ec9ab4d79ce4","width":"1125","height":"3797"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388697333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166949947,"gmtCreate":1623989532389,"gmtModify":1703825863417,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166949947","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574339928552137","authorId":"3574339928552137","name":"IsaacHuat93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574339928552137","authorIdStr":"3574339928552137"},"content":"CommeNt BaCk pls","text":"CommeNt BaCk pls","html":"CommeNt BaCk pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166955018,"gmtCreate":1623989377034,"gmtModify":1703825857995,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like my comment thanks","listText":"Help like my comment thanks","text":"Help like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166955018","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144286417","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623970062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144286417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144286417","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 17  - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.The marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous d","content":"<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 06:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","AAPL":"苹果","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","DOG":"道指反向ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","NAB.AU":"NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD","03086":"华夏纳指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144286417","content_text":"June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.\nThe marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.\nMany investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.\nFed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.\n\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.\nTechnology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.\nInvestors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.\nMeanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.\nThe Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.\nInterest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.\nThe strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&P sectors.\nOther economically sensitive stocks, including materials and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574928367638029","authorId":"3574928367638029","name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorIdStr":"3574928367638029"},"content":"done please comment n like back","text":"done please comment n like back","html":"done please comment n like back"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387901692,"gmtCreate":1613705246716,"gmtModify":1704883880014,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>everythingis bloody red period except for cciv&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>everythingis bloody red period except for cciv&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$everythingis bloody red period except for cciv","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6eefe6228a3ab71b3eed51baf9ae45","width":"1125","height":"3707"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387901692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386328820,"gmtCreate":1613138738260,"gmtModify":1704878798500,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it still go up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it still go up?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it still go up?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a65f8ceeff862934480b71466d578d","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386328820","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458863135577894","authorId":"3458863135577894","name":"火柴叔叔","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bf342e3e40af160be7323bb48d944a3e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458863135577894","authorIdStr":"3458863135577894"},"content":"[Handshake] 60.96","text":"[Handshake] 60.96","html":"[Handshake] 60.96"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166954230,"gmtCreate":1623989447620,"gmtModify":1703825860438,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166954230","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360841571,"gmtCreate":1613891079993,"gmtModify":1704885741506,"author":{"id":"3573710338829184","authorId":"3573710338829184","name":"Jordathj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e0aad9b17e68a2896a9e4b8908c95b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573710338829184","authorIdStr":"3573710338829184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>too high","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>too high","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$too high","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798e33891c18013ba1b2b17a8770f5c4","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360841571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}