$CNOOC(00883)$ FY2023 full year revenue breakdown is likely to show more volume moved but at lower prices as 2H23 oil prices will be lower on average compared to 1H23. I nevertheless expect a revenue beat compared to FY2022. Also expect costs to remain in similar range hence FY2023 profit margins will be same or slightly lower compared to FY2022. There will still be a comfortable buffer for dividend, although total for FY2023 could come in at total less than FY2022. Now what is exciting is that underlying oil prices have seemed to bottom from US$70+ and moving upwards. If it continues towards US$90-100 range, FY2024 will be a fantastic year.
$CNOOC(00883)$ yesterday reached all time high after bouncing off 50DMA, and with that tailwind of rising oil prices, it is poised to easily breach the $21 psychological resistance. This move is also definitely supported by brokers upgrade and recommendations for SOE reform beneficiaries. No doubt others on the list will also benefit but I'm holding on to $CNOOC(00883)$ for dividend next month.
The rally has started! Till the year end and maybe beyond when you will see elevated enthusiasm with Fed support, market support, institutions piling in and finally retail coming into the fray!
Gold has hit ATH over last few months and will look to target 2900 with several interesting drivers: 1. BRICS meeting end of Oct that will discuss new monetary unit, comprising up to 40% gold. 2. FED rate cut of at least 25bps , cementing the easing cycle continuing - all good for commodities, especially precious metals. 3. US elections uncertainty and support for economy boosted by liquidity injections. I am Long ETF miners and GLD/SLV in anticipation of the strong moves over the next couple of weeks.
$SD GOLD(01787)$ Watch out for the rising gold price and profitability of gold miners. Although the cost base may rise because of energy price inflation, the price of gold is expected to outpace the cost pressures.