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2021-04-09

New trick

The United States hopes that global taxes will contribute to an effective fiscal policy cycle.

2021-05-27

It’s mgm studio not mgm resort

A major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion

2021-09-10

Who knows

The Federal Reserve's love is not unconditional!

2021-04-12

Be safe

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-01

Support

Sister Wood: China's "Disruptive Innovation Platform" is Rising

2021-03-27

Buy when others are fearful

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-25

QE lo

The Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?

2021-06-15

Mmh… interesting

Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?

2021-05-29

Of coz

Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?

2021-05-14

Really?

The Federal Reserve is no longer a "control freak," and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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In terms of valuation, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E recently reached 39 times, surpassing pre-2008 financial crisis levels and approaching the peak valuation of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The price-to-book ratio reached 4.8, which is close to the level of 2000. The price-to-sales ratio reached 3.3, the highest since data became available, more than double the peak before the 2008 crisis.</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内，美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点（截至2021年9月3日收盘），涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面，S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍，超过2008年金融危机之前水平，接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8，也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3，是有数据以来的最高，超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致：几乎直线倾斜向上，稍有偏离，很快被修复。只有一个区别，这轮上涨斜率更高（如图一：S&P 500指数月K线）。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势，背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先，也是最重要、最根本的，是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始，美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”（Greenspan put）就是指当股市下跌时，格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权（也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险），于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后，美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模，但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头，最后不仅没有缩小，反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松（QE2和QE3），于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初，鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱，发现新任主席爱心不足，立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后，鲍威尔紧急转弯，恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧，于是放心地继续斜线上涨，直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后，美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中，美联储使出浑身解数，不仅迅速将政策利率调到零，而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买，从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底，美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元，几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券，还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效，市场信心恢复，抄底资金涌入，S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往，让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然，这届美联储可能已经别无选择，必须对股市百般呵护，因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标（股市总市值/GDP）已经超过200%，这一方面说明股市估值高企，另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动，从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值，最近已经超过37万亿美元，还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%，蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏，股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里，公共退休基金（即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池）在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里，还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛，股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害，还可能导致社会混乱（想象如果公共退休金亏空违约）。\n对美联储来说，可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市，就是呵护经济。\n当然，美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新，美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样，直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离，它给市场搭了台，唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样，决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的，在笔者看来，是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易（Carry trade）的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空（借入）日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低，雷亚尔利率高，所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值，套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然，如果雷亚尔大幅贬值，该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易：如果贷款顺利付息还本，那么银行赚到息差，否则将大亏。再比如，保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易：如果受保人无事，那么保险公司赚到保险费，如果出事（例如重疾、财产损失等），则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易：如果发行者顺利还本付息，那么获得利息收入，而如果发生信用事件，则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出，套息交易有个共同特征：跟某个巨大的风险（高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等）共存，在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生，但是他希望岁月静好，至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说，套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在，而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货：如果即期VIX（S&P 500隐含波动率）保持稳定，那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”（roll yield），因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端；如果同时即期VIX下行，做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌，VIX大幅上升，那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的，也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权：如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨，那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏，如果市场稳定或上涨，可以增强持股收益。当然，如果股票或指数大跌，那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌，那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底（buy the dips）策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱，但是一旦市场发生大跌，那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响，其标题就是“大家都在干这个”（Everyone’s Doing It）。对很多资金管理者来说，参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报，如果不参与，业绩不如人，则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”，股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面，因为波动率空头压过多头（如股票空头），股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面，套息策略都是助涨的，因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来，就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的？因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性，比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好，在其他不变情况下，股价也就越高。事实上，套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降，诱导机构寻找收益（searching for yield），而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然，上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来，S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌，包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升，股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心，市场又重振旗鼓，再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态，说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者，完全不用更高级的工具，只需要做S&P 500指数的多头（比如买指数ETF）。在岁月静好期间，多头有比较稳定的收益入账，但一旦发生恐慌，可能“一觉回到解放前”，要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨，享受史上最高水平的估值，并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值，持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能：股市波动受到抑制，套息盘被验证能赚钱，吸引更多套息资金入场，同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者：美联储。\n但问题是，美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗？\n美联储的爱，不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提，通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%，已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说，就业情况已经不弱，而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%，远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂（transitory）的，很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落，从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性，而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色，不能看到未来。更重要的是，目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落，美联储应该加息，从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀，并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%，而且因为房屋库存水平较低（尤其是总价低的入门级房屋），同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位（也是宽松货币政策使然），房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍，推高房租水平，因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱，离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致，而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上，甚至不断升高，如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨，那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀，但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看，美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买（也就是所谓的taper），同时等待时机停止资产购买，最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘，这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘，其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险，给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率，斜率越陡，S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态，风险和收益必须匹配，所以股市崩盘风险越大，S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高，这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往，恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来，大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘：2018年一季度，2018年四季度，以及2020年一季度（见图一的三个圈圈）。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大，所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了，我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩，或者是其他冲击。一旦发生，就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环，最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中，所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时，他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓，“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升，而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压，比如风险平价基金（Risk-parity funds）需要降低股票仓位，但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者，但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时，人人都需要流动性，但没有人供应，所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发，导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心，也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费（美国GDP的大头），并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说，美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘，股票基本面会和高企的估值一起，跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场，是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说，目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲：S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期，S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里，美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后，股市套息交易会不会再来一轮？我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后，因为总需求迅速萎缩，通胀问题会迅速消失，失业问题会重返，这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤，下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗？当然可以，美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策，套息交易很可能还会复活。当然，未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高，现在难以判断。反例是日本股市，虽有央行加持，但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883388378,"gmtCreate":1631202362594,"gmtModify":1676530496386,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883388378","repostId":"1173243012","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173243012","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631201508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173243012?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 23:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Focus] BlackBerry shares rose over 6% after the company filed two patent applications in the United States.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173243012","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月9日，黑莓盘中涨超6%，此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请，分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","content":"<p>On September 9, BlackBerry shares rose more than 6% intraday after the company filed two patent applications in the United States: \"Method and System for Mobile State Detection of Sensor Devices\" and \"Predictor-Copy Encoding Mode for Cloud Encoding\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Focus] BlackBerry shares rose over 6% after the company filed two patent applications in the United States.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 23:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 9, BlackBerry shares rose more than 6% intraday after the company filed two patent applications in the United States: \"Method and System for Mobile State Detection of Sensor Devices\" and \"Predictor-Copy Encoding Mode for Cloud Encoding\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9d40affd7144ecdfdd62b9c8b3aed5","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173243012","content_text":"9月9日，黑莓盘中涨超6%，此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请，分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813894196,"gmtCreate":1630164759515,"gmtModify":1676530237106,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813894196","repostId":"2162711075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162711075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630140133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162711075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-28 16:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A hurricane is approaching, and oil prices have seen their biggest weekly increase since June last year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162711075","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"油企周五已经关闭了墨西哥湾59%的产能。墨西哥湾的海上油井占美国原油产量的17%，美国有超过45%的炼油产能位于墨西哥湾沿岸。","content":"<p>On Friday, Brent crude oil closed up 2.21%, up more than 11% this week, while WTI crude oil closed up 1.84%, up more than 10% this week.</p><p><b>Both recorded their biggest weekly gains since June 2020.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92868c7332f99db9188d1fb6bae2183\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de070d28c85f8c199300c304e76d957c\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), a major Hurricane Ida is expected to hit North America early next week.<b>Oil producers have shut down 59% of their capacity in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.</b></p><p><b>Offshore oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico account for 17% of U.S. crude oil production, and more than 45% of U.S. refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of Mizuho Energy Futures in New York, said:</p><p>Historically, crude oil prices have risen as hurricanes approach, even though refineries do not need crude oil when they are shut down during a storm. Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group, an independent Research and consulting firm, said:</p><p>Hurricanes are clearly the focus of market attention right now, at least in the short term. We will lose the supply of oil refineries and some demand. In addition,<b>The weakening of the dollar this week has reduced the cost of oil purchases for holders of other currencies, which has also supported oil prices to some extent.</b></p><p>In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged for the first time that he also supports the possibility of starting taper within the year, but also emphasized that this should not be interpreted as a signal that a rate hike is imminent. He reiterated that inflation is temporary and warned that the Delta virus poses near-term risks.</p><p>The the US Dollar Index closed down 0.36% at 92.70 points that day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d29271924d869edde84f8459e7eae5\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">OPEC+ will meet on September 1, and many market participants expect it to approve another increase in monthly production.</p><p>Energy Services Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>Data shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by five this week to 410, the highest number since April 2020. The number of active drilling rigs increased by 25 in August, the largest increase since January, and the first consecutive 12-month increase since July 2017.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A hurricane is approaching, and oil prices have seen their biggest weekly increase since June last year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA hurricane is approaching, and oil prices have seen their biggest weekly increase since June last year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 16:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, Brent crude oil closed up 2.21%, up more than 11% this week, while WTI crude oil closed up 1.84%, up more than 10% this week.</p><p><b>Both recorded their biggest weekly gains since June 2020.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92868c7332f99db9188d1fb6bae2183\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de070d28c85f8c199300c304e76d957c\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), a major Hurricane Ida is expected to hit North America early next week.<b>Oil producers have shut down 59% of their capacity in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.</b></p><p><b>Offshore oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico account for 17% of U.S. crude oil production, and more than 45% of U.S. refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of Mizuho Energy Futures in New York, said:</p><p>Historically, crude oil prices have risen as hurricanes approach, even though refineries do not need crude oil when they are shut down during a storm. Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group, an independent Research and consulting firm, said:</p><p>Hurricanes are clearly the focus of market attention right now, at least in the short term. We will lose the supply of oil refineries and some demand. In addition,<b>The weakening of the dollar this week has reduced the cost of oil purchases for holders of other currencies, which has also supported oil prices to some extent.</b></p><p>In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged for the first time that he also supports the possibility of starting taper within the year, but also emphasized that this should not be interpreted as a signal that a rate hike is imminent. He reiterated that inflation is temporary and warned that the Delta virus poses near-term risks.</p><p>The the US Dollar Index closed down 0.36% at 92.70 points that day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d29271924d869edde84f8459e7eae5\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">OPEC+ will meet on September 1, and many market participants expect it to approve another increase in monthly production.</p><p>Energy Services Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>Data shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by five this week to 410, the highest number since April 2020. The number of active drilling rigs increased by 25 in August, the largest increase since January, and the first consecutive 12-month increase since July 2017.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639105\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639105","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162711075","content_text":"本周五，布伦特原油收涨2.21%，本周累涨超11%，WTI原油收涨1.84%，本周累涨超10%。\n二者均创下自2020年6月以来的最大单周涨幅。\n\n据美国安全和环境执法局(BSEE)数据，因预计下周初将有一场重大飓风Ida袭击北美，石油生产商周五已经关闭了墨西哥湾59%的产能。\n墨西哥湾的海上油井占美国原油产量的17%，美国有超过45%的炼油产能位于墨西哥湾沿岸。\n纽约瑞穗能源期货主管 Bob Yawger 表示：\n\n 从历史上看，原油价格会随着飓风的临近而上涨，尽管炼油厂在风暴期间关闭时并不需要原油。\n\n独立研究咨询公司 Commodity Research Group 高级合伙人 Andrew Lebow 称：\n\n 飓风显然是当前市场关注的焦点，至少在短期内如此。我们将失去炼油厂的供应和一些需求。\n\n此外，本周美元的走软使得其它货币持有者购买石油的成本降低，也在一定程度上支撑了油价。\n美联储主席鲍威尔周五在Jackson Hole会议上的讲话中，首度承认他也支持年内可能开始taper，但也强调这不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。他重申了通胀是暂时的，并警告说Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n当日美元指数收跌0.36%，报92.70点。\nOPEC＋将于9月1日举行会议，不少市场人士预计或将批准再次增加月度产量。\n能源服务公司贝克休斯数据显示，本周美国活跃钻机数增加五座，至410座，为2020年4月以来最多。8月活跃钻机数增加25座，为1月以来最大增幅，这也是自2017年7月以来首次连续12个月增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836117280,"gmtCreate":1629464653540,"gmtModify":1676530049408,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Baba go","listText":"Baba go","text":"Baba go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836117280","repostId":"1114951642","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114951642","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1629456144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114951642?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The group of Chinese concept stocks falling below their IPO price has welcomed a major new friend: Alibaba.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114951642","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"港美股中概股的“破发兄弟”中，迎来了一位重磅的朋友，阿里巴巴。\n2021年8月17日，港股阿里巴巴暴跌4.77％，收报171.8港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n就在投资者们还在“幻想破发之后必有反弹”","content":"<p>Among the \"brothers\" of Hong Kong, US, and Chinese concept stocks that fell below their issue price, a significant friend has emerged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>。</p><p>On August 17, 2021, Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares plummeted 4.77% to close at HK$171.8, falling below its issue price of HK$176.</p><p>Just as investors were still \"fantasizing about a rebound after falling below the IPO price,\" Alibaba fell for three consecutive days, plummeting below the IPO price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30635fcd352a962b4e117b89a43c093\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b><b>\"Beggar stocks\" that collectively fell below their issue price</b></b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Chinese concept stocks have acquired a new nickname: \"Chinese beggar stocks\".</p><p>Regarding US stocks:</p><p>As of July 29, 2021, there were approximately 79 Chinese concept stocks that had been listed in the United States in the past three years and had not yet been delisted, of which more than 70% were trading below their issue price.</p><p>June 26, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>Missfresh's stock price plummeted 25% at the opening, and as of 1:45 a.m. Beijing time, it was quoted at $9.80, down about 25% from its IPO price of $13. At 2 a.m., Missfresh's stock price plummeted again to $8.68, a drop of 33%, creating a catastrophic drop in the issue price for Chinese concept stocks after their listing.</p><p>July 6, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Travel suffered a heavy blow in the US, with its stock price falling nearly 20% below its issue price.</p><p>Regarding Hong Kong stocks:</p><p>Kuaishou Technology, which listed in Hong Kong on February 5, 2021, was the world's largest IPO in the first half of the year, raising HK$48.3 billion. In addition, companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>All of them raised more than HK$23 billion, ranking fifth, sixth, and seventh globally, respectively.</p><p>However, all four of the aforementioned behemoth IPO companies have fallen sharply below their issue price. Among them, Kuaishou's stock price nearly doubled on its first day, but after a rollercoaster ride, it fell below its issue price of HK$115.</p><p>Data shows that the China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB.US) has seen capital outflows for two consecutive days, and the ETF has fallen by more than 40% year-to-date.</p><p>The ETF attracted record single-day capital inflows last month. However, analysts point out that due to the uncertain investment prospects of Chinese concept technology stocks, buyers who had previously entered the market to buy at the bottom have begun to abandon these stocks. In addition, some fund managers who were once optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, such as Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management, aggressively reduced their holdings of Chinese concept stocks, and other institutional and retail investors began to follow suit.</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>Alibaba has fallen below its IPO price multiple times in its history.</b></b></p><p>Alibaba has actually seen things like the issue price falling below its issue price many times before.</p><p>In 2008, Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price on the Hong Kong stock exchange.</p><p>In November 2007, Alibaba listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with its B2B business as its main business, raising HK$11.6 billion, becoming the largest financing scale for a Chinese internet company at the time. After its listing, its stock price soared to three times the issue price.</p><p>However, when the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, Alibaba's B2B business was greatly affected, and its stock price began to collapse. It fell below its issue price in March 2008 and fell to a low of HK$3.42 in October, a 30% drop from the issue price. It has fallen by more than 90% from the previous high of 41.4 yuan.</p><p>In 2012, Alibaba announced its privatization at HK$13.5 per share, costing HK$19 billion, and temporarily bid farewell to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>In 2015, Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price on the US stock market.</p><p>On September 20, 2014, Alibaba was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, closing at $93.89 on its first day, up 38.07% from its offering price.</p><p>On August 23, 2015, global stock markets plummeted, and US stocks, which opened at night, were not spared either. Within half an hour of opening, all three major indices fell by around 4%. Alibaba's stock, which continued its downward trend, opened at $58.16, falling below its IPO price of $68.</p><p>Alibaba was also in crisis in 2015. In August 2015, Alibaba's quarterly report was disappointing, with revenue growing by 28% year-on-year and retail sales in China growing by 34%. These two key indicators were lower than the average expectation of previous analysts and marked the slowest quarterly growth in three years.</p><p>In June 2015, Alibaba warned analysts that the ban on online lottery sales, the transfer of its micro and small finance business to Ant Financial Group, and the reduction in fees on the Juhuasuan platform would all impact revenue for the quarter. According to the group's CFO, Wu Wei, in an analyst conference call, if these impacts are excluded, the company's revenue should increase by about 36% year-on-year this quarter.</p><p>Following the share price drop in 2015, Alibaba proposed a $4 billion share buyback program, funded by Chairman Jack Ma and Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai.</p><p>Interestingly, this time, Alibaba's performance also fell short of expectations and its stock price continued to decline, so Alibaba still resorted to the \"share buyback\" tactic.</p><p>On the evening of August 3, 2021, Alibaba released a quarterly report on miss the market expectation, authorizing the company to increase the total amount of its share repurchase program from $10 billion to $15 billion, valid until the end of 2022. This repurchase program totals $15 billion (nearly 100 billion yuan). This is the largest share buyback program in Alibaba Group's history.</p><p>In 2015, when Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price, CEO Zhang Yong personally stepped in to encourage the company.</p><p>On August 25, 2015, Zhang Yong stated in a letter to employees: \"This is not the first global stock market crash; of course, it will not be the last. Alibaba's value is reflected in our pursuit of ideals and the value we create for our customers, and this value will not change with changes in stock prices. Please turn your attention from the stock market to our customers... forget about the stock price and remain calm.\" Stay grounded and keep moving forward!</p><p>The reason at the time was that Alibaba was very generous to its employees in terms of equity incentives. Therefore, the impact of stock price fluctuations on the personal wealth of Alibaba employees was greater than that of other companies. Zhang Yong published this letter at the time, partly to express his confidence in the company to employees and the outside world, and partly because Alibaba employees were indeed \"spending more and more time watching the market, which was affecting their work.\"</p><p>Alibaba's Hong Kong stock price has fallen below its issue price, and there has been no statement from Alibaba so far.</p><p>In addition, after Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market in 2019, its price also fell below its issue price.</p><p>In 2019, Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market with an issue price of HK$176. On November 26, Alibaba closed at HK$187.60 on its first day of trading, up 6.59%. The total market capitalization is HK$4.01 trillion, exceeding the total market capitalization of HK$3.2 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It has become the largest stock in Hong Kong by market capitalization.</p><p>On March 18, 2020, Alibaba closed at HK$173, falling below its issue price of HK$176.</p><p>However, on that occasion, Alibaba returned to its upward trend after a short-term correction.</p><p>This time, Alibaba's stock price hit a low of HK$155, which is far from the issue price and has not yet shown any signs of rebound. It can be considered that it has broken through the \"solid\" and \"comfortable\" situation.</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Do Chinese concept stocks have a future?</b></b></p><p>Regarding US stocks:</p><p>“The prospects for Chinese companies listed in the United States are uncertain; it depends on whether they can comply with U.S. accounting standards. Currently, U.S. regulations are very strict. This makes it even more necessary for Chinese companies preparing to list in the U.S. to be prepared for crisis response,” said Chen Kaifeng, chief economist at Huisheng Financial Management.</p><p>\"In the past, due to restrictions imposed by the H/H market listing system, some unprofitable companies with weighted voting rights had no choice but to list in the United States. However, against the backdrop of continued tightening of domestic and international regulatory policies this year, and the reform of the H/H market system creating conditions for the return of Chinese concept stocks to the US stock market, the return of Chinese concept stocks to the US stock market...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">Chinese capital</a>The market is an inevitable trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Chief strategist Dai Kang said.</p><p>As Chinese concept stocks in the US stock market face increasing difficulties, returning to Hong Kong for listing has become an option for many companies.</p><p>According to a Deloitte Research report, benefiting from secondary listings and IPOs with different equity structures, the total amount of IPO financing in Hong Kong increased by 138% year-on-year in the first half of 2021, reaching HK$209.7 billion. The amount of financing broke through the historical high of the same period in 2011 and is the highest record in many years. In the first half of 2021, the top four IPOs all raised more than HK$20 billion. Benefiting from several large IPOs, the average financing scale of the Hong Kong Main Board this year increased significantly by 182% to HK$1.81 billion.</p><p>However, these Chinese concept stocks also felt uncomfortable after listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange.</p><p>Regarding the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that Hong Kong stocks performed significantly worse than US stocks and A-shares in 2020, but the stagflation in Hong Kong stocks in the early stages provided ample room for a catch-up in the future, and multiple driving forces will drive the rise of Hong Kong stocks in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is entirely determined by the profitability of listed companies; Over the next two years, the profits of Hong Kong-listed companies are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Some companies have also set their sights on A-shares, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>。</p><p>On August 12, more than a year after its listing on the US stock market, Li Auto again went public, listing on the Hong Kong stock market, becoming the first company to do so.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Following this, it became the second emerging electric vehicle manufacturer to achieve dual listing. Issue price HK$118</p><p>Li Auto, one of the three giants of emerging energy vehicles, fell below its issue price on its first day of trading and subsequently fell continuously, closing at HK$104.6 on August 20.</p><p>Li Auto President Shen Yanan said that Li Auto may have to \"return to A\".</p><p>\"Li Auto US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares are all part of our overall plan to expand our funding channels, so we do not rule out the possibility of returning to the A-share market.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The group of Chinese concept stocks falling below their IPO price has welcomed a major new friend: Alibaba.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe group of Chinese concept stocks falling below their IPO price has welcomed a major new friend: Alibaba.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-20 18:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Among the \"brothers\" of Hong Kong, US, and Chinese concept stocks that fell below their issue price, a significant friend has emerged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>。</p><p>On August 17, 2021, Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares plummeted 4.77% to close at HK$171.8, falling below its issue price of HK$176.</p><p>Just as investors were still \"fantasizing about a rebound after falling below the IPO price,\" Alibaba fell for three consecutive days, plummeting below the IPO price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30635fcd352a962b4e117b89a43c093\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b><b>\"Beggar stocks\" that collectively fell below their issue price</b></b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Chinese concept stocks have acquired a new nickname: \"Chinese beggar stocks\".</p><p>Regarding US stocks:</p><p>As of July 29, 2021, there were approximately 79 Chinese concept stocks that had been listed in the United States in the past three years and had not yet been delisted, of which more than 70% were trading below their issue price.</p><p>June 26, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>Missfresh's stock price plummeted 25% at the opening, and as of 1:45 a.m. Beijing time, it was quoted at $9.80, down about 25% from its IPO price of $13. At 2 a.m., Missfresh's stock price plummeted again to $8.68, a drop of 33%, creating a catastrophic drop in the issue price for Chinese concept stocks after their listing.</p><p>July 6, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Travel suffered a heavy blow in the US, with its stock price falling nearly 20% below its issue price.</p><p>Regarding Hong Kong stocks:</p><p>Kuaishou Technology, which listed in Hong Kong on February 5, 2021, was the world's largest IPO in the first half of the year, raising HK$48.3 billion. In addition, companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>All of them raised more than HK$23 billion, ranking fifth, sixth, and seventh globally, respectively.</p><p>However, all four of the aforementioned behemoth IPO companies have fallen sharply below their issue price. Among them, Kuaishou's stock price nearly doubled on its first day, but after a rollercoaster ride, it fell below its issue price of HK$115.</p><p>Data shows that the China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB.US) has seen capital outflows for two consecutive days, and the ETF has fallen by more than 40% year-to-date.</p><p>The ETF attracted record single-day capital inflows last month. However, analysts point out that due to the uncertain investment prospects of Chinese concept technology stocks, buyers who had previously entered the market to buy at the bottom have begun to abandon these stocks. In addition, some fund managers who were once optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, such as Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management, aggressively reduced their holdings of Chinese concept stocks, and other institutional and retail investors began to follow suit.</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>Alibaba has fallen below its IPO price multiple times in its history.</b></b></p><p>Alibaba has actually seen things like the issue price falling below its issue price many times before.</p><p>In 2008, Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price on the Hong Kong stock exchange.</p><p>In November 2007, Alibaba listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with its B2B business as its main business, raising HK$11.6 billion, becoming the largest financing scale for a Chinese internet company at the time. After its listing, its stock price soared to three times the issue price.</p><p>However, when the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, Alibaba's B2B business was greatly affected, and its stock price began to collapse. It fell below its issue price in March 2008 and fell to a low of HK$3.42 in October, a 30% drop from the issue price. It has fallen by more than 90% from the previous high of 41.4 yuan.</p><p>In 2012, Alibaba announced its privatization at HK$13.5 per share, costing HK$19 billion, and temporarily bid farewell to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>In 2015, Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price on the US stock market.</p><p>On September 20, 2014, Alibaba was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, closing at $93.89 on its first day, up 38.07% from its offering price.</p><p>On August 23, 2015, global stock markets plummeted, and US stocks, which opened at night, were not spared either. Within half an hour of opening, all three major indices fell by around 4%. Alibaba's stock, which continued its downward trend, opened at $58.16, falling below its IPO price of $68.</p><p>Alibaba was also in crisis in 2015. In August 2015, Alibaba's quarterly report was disappointing, with revenue growing by 28% year-on-year and retail sales in China growing by 34%. These two key indicators were lower than the average expectation of previous analysts and marked the slowest quarterly growth in three years.</p><p>In June 2015, Alibaba warned analysts that the ban on online lottery sales, the transfer of its micro and small finance business to Ant Financial Group, and the reduction in fees on the Juhuasuan platform would all impact revenue for the quarter. According to the group's CFO, Wu Wei, in an analyst conference call, if these impacts are excluded, the company's revenue should increase by about 36% year-on-year this quarter.</p><p>Following the share price drop in 2015, Alibaba proposed a $4 billion share buyback program, funded by Chairman Jack Ma and Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai.</p><p>Interestingly, this time, Alibaba's performance also fell short of expectations and its stock price continued to decline, so Alibaba still resorted to the \"share buyback\" tactic.</p><p>On the evening of August 3, 2021, Alibaba released a quarterly report on miss the market expectation, authorizing the company to increase the total amount of its share repurchase program from $10 billion to $15 billion, valid until the end of 2022. This repurchase program totals $15 billion (nearly 100 billion yuan). This is the largest share buyback program in Alibaba Group's history.</p><p>In 2015, when Alibaba's stock price fell below its issue price, CEO Zhang Yong personally stepped in to encourage the company.</p><p>On August 25, 2015, Zhang Yong stated in a letter to employees: \"This is not the first global stock market crash; of course, it will not be the last. Alibaba's value is reflected in our pursuit of ideals and the value we create for our customers, and this value will not change with changes in stock prices. Please turn your attention from the stock market to our customers... forget about the stock price and remain calm.\" Stay grounded and keep moving forward!</p><p>The reason at the time was that Alibaba was very generous to its employees in terms of equity incentives. Therefore, the impact of stock price fluctuations on the personal wealth of Alibaba employees was greater than that of other companies. Zhang Yong published this letter at the time, partly to express his confidence in the company to employees and the outside world, and partly because Alibaba employees were indeed \"spending more and more time watching the market, which was affecting their work.\"</p><p>Alibaba's Hong Kong stock price has fallen below its issue price, and there has been no statement from Alibaba so far.</p><p>In addition, after Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market in 2019, its price also fell below its issue price.</p><p>In 2019, Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market with an issue price of HK$176. On November 26, Alibaba closed at HK$187.60 on its first day of trading, up 6.59%. The total market capitalization is HK$4.01 trillion, exceeding the total market capitalization of HK$3.2 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It has become the largest stock in Hong Kong by market capitalization.</p><p>On March 18, 2020, Alibaba closed at HK$173, falling below its issue price of HK$176.</p><p>However, on that occasion, Alibaba returned to its upward trend after a short-term correction.</p><p>This time, Alibaba's stock price hit a low of HK$155, which is far from the issue price and has not yet shown any signs of rebound. It can be considered that it has broken through the \"solid\" and \"comfortable\" situation.</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Do Chinese concept stocks have a future?</b></b></p><p>Regarding US stocks:</p><p>“The prospects for Chinese companies listed in the United States are uncertain; it depends on whether they can comply with U.S. accounting standards. Currently, U.S. regulations are very strict. This makes it even more necessary for Chinese companies preparing to list in the U.S. to be prepared for crisis response,” said Chen Kaifeng, chief economist at Huisheng Financial Management.</p><p>\"In the past, due to restrictions imposed by the H/H market listing system, some unprofitable companies with weighted voting rights had no choice but to list in the United States. However, against the backdrop of continued tightening of domestic and international regulatory policies this year, and the reform of the H/H market system creating conditions for the return of Chinese concept stocks to the US stock market, the return of Chinese concept stocks to the US stock market...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">Chinese capital</a>The market is an inevitable trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Chief strategist Dai Kang said.</p><p>As Chinese concept stocks in the US stock market face increasing difficulties, returning to Hong Kong for listing has become an option for many companies.</p><p>According to a Deloitte Research report, benefiting from secondary listings and IPOs with different equity structures, the total amount of IPO financing in Hong Kong increased by 138% year-on-year in the first half of 2021, reaching HK$209.7 billion. The amount of financing broke through the historical high of the same period in 2011 and is the highest record in many years. In the first half of 2021, the top four IPOs all raised more than HK$20 billion. Benefiting from several large IPOs, the average financing scale of the Hong Kong Main Board this year increased significantly by 182% to HK$1.81 billion.</p><p>However, these Chinese concept stocks also felt uncomfortable after listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange.</p><p>Regarding the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that Hong Kong stocks performed significantly worse than US stocks and A-shares in 2020, but the stagflation in Hong Kong stocks in the early stages provided ample room for a catch-up in the future, and multiple driving forces will drive the rise of Hong Kong stocks in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is entirely determined by the profitability of listed companies; Over the next two years, the profits of Hong Kong-listed companies are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Some companies have also set their sights on A-shares, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>。</p><p>On August 12, more than a year after its listing on the US stock market, Li Auto again went public, listing on the Hong Kong stock market, becoming the first company to do so.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Following this, it became the second emerging electric vehicle manufacturer to achieve dual listing. Issue price HK$118</p><p>Li Auto, one of the three giants of emerging energy vehicles, fell below its issue price on its first day of trading and subsequently fell continuously, closing at HK$104.6 on August 20.</p><p>Li Auto President Shen Yanan said that Li Auto may have to \"return to A\".</p><p>\"Li Auto US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares are all part of our overall plan to expand our funding channels, so we do not rule out the possibility of returning to the A-share market.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7064c4d7d0e0e65c6e1138157a714384","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114951642","content_text":"港美股中概股的“破发兄弟”中，迎来了一位重磅的朋友，阿里巴巴。\n2021年8月17日，港股阿里巴巴暴跌4.77％，收报171.8港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n就在投资者们还在“幻想破发之后必有反弹”之际，阿里巴巴又连续三日下跌，在发行价下方断崖俯冲。\n\n1、集体破发的“中丐股”\n今年以来，中概股有了新的诨号：“中丐股”。\n美股方面：\n截至2021年7月29日，近三年赴美上市并且目前未退市的中概股约有79家，其中有70%以上的企业处于破发状态。\n2021年6月26日，每日优鲜开盘暴跌25%，截至北京时间凌晨1：45，每日优鲜报价9.8美元，较IPO价为13美元下跌约25%；凌晨两点，每日优鲜再度暴跌至8.68美元，跌幅达33%，制造了中概股上市后堪称灾难级的破发现场。\n2021年7月6日，滴滴出行在美遭遇重挫，股价跌近20%，跌破发行价。\n港股方面：\n2021年2月5日在香港上市的快手科技是上半年全球最大IPO个股，募资规模483亿港元；另外，在港股上市的京东物流、百度集团、哔哩哔哩的募资规模都超过230亿港元，分别位列全球第五、第六、第七位。\n然而，当前上述四家巨无霸IPO的公司悉数深度破发，其中快手首日上涨近两倍，之后走出的“过山车”后，跌破115港元的发行价。\n数据显示，中国海外互联网ETF(KWEB.US)已经连续两天出现资金流出，该ETF今年至今为止已下跌超40%。\n该ETF曾在上个月吸引了创纪录的单日资金流入。然而，分析师指出，因中概科技股的投资前景不明，曾经入场抄底的买家开始放弃这些股票。再加上一些曾经看好中概股的基金经理，如Ark投资管理公司的Cathie Wood激进减持中概股，其他的机构及散户投资者也开始纷纷效仿。\n2、阿里巴巴史上多次破发\n破发什么的，其实阿里巴巴早就见得多了。\n2008年，阿里巴巴在港股破发过。\n2007年11月，阿里巴巴以B2B业务作为主体在港交所上市，募资116亿港元，成为当时中国互联网公司融资规模之最。上市后，其股价曾飙涨至发行价3倍。\n然而，2008年全球经济危机爆发，阿里B2B业务受到巨大影响，股价开始崩盘。2008年3月破发，10月跌至3.42港元低位，较发行价跌去30%。与此前41.4元高位相比跌超90%。\n2012年，阿里巴巴宣布以13.5港元/股耗资190亿港元进行私有化，暂时告别港交所。\n2015年，阿里巴巴在美股破发。\n2014年9月20日，阿里巴巴在美国纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，首日报收于93.89美元，较发行价上涨38.07%。\n2015年8 月 23 日，全球股市大跌，夜间开盘的美股也未能幸免，开盘半小时内三大指数跌幅均在 4% 上下。随大势继续下行的阿里巴巴股票开盘即报 58.16 美元，一举跌破了 IPO 发行价 68 美元。\n2015年的阿里巴巴也是身陷危机。2015年8月，阿里巴巴的季度报告令人失望，营收同比增长 28%、中国零售业务销售额增长 34%，这两大关键指标都低于先前分析师的平均预期，而且是三年来增速最慢的一季。\n2015年 6 月，阿里就曾向分析师们发出警告称，彩票在线销售被禁、将小微金融业务划归至蚂蚁金服集团，以及聚划算平台收费的降低，都将会对本季度的营收产生影响。根据集团 CFO 武卫在分析师电话会议上的说法，如果把这些影响都剔除，公司的营收本季度应同比增长 36% 左右。\n2015年那次破发后，阿里巴巴提出了一项 40 亿美元的股票回购计划，资金来自董事局主席马云及副主席蔡崇信。\n有意思的是，这一次阿里巴巴同样是业绩不及预期+股价持续下跌，阿里照样祭出“回购”这一招。\n2021年8月3日晚，阿里巴巴公布一份不及市场预期的季报后，授权公司将回购计划总额从100亿美元提升至150亿美元，有效期到2022年底。这项总额150亿美元（近1,000亿元人民币）的回购计划。这是阿里巴巴集团有史以来最大规模回购计划。\n2015年，阿里巴巴股价破发之际，CEO张勇亲自下场为公司打气。\n2015年8月25日，张勇在致员工的信中表示：“这不是第一次全球性的股灾；当然，也不会是最后一次；阿里巴巴的价值，体现在我们对理想的追求和为客户所创造的价值当中，这个价值不会随股价的变化而改变。请大家把眼光从股市回到客户身上……忘掉股价，心平气和；脚踏实地，继续前进！”\n彼时原因在于：当时的阿里巴巴在股权激励方面对员工非常慷慨，因此，股价涨跌对阿里员工个人财富的影响面及影响程度也较其它公司更大。张勇当时发表这封信，一方面是向员工及外界表达了对公司的信心，另一方面，可能是阿里员工的确“用于看盘的时间越来越多了，影响到工作”。\n此次阿里巴巴港股破发，暂时未看到阿里巴巴方面有表态。\n此外，2019年，阿里巴巴重回港股后，也破发过。\n2019年阿里巴巴重返香港股市，发行价176港元，11月26日，阿里巴巴上市首日报收187.60港元，上涨6.59%。总市值为4.01万亿港元，超过总市值3.2万亿港元的腾讯控股，成为香港股市市值第一的股票。\n2020年3月18日，阿里巴巴收报173港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n不过那一次，阿里巴巴短期调整后重回升势。\n这一次，阿里巴巴股价最低下探到155港元，距离发行价已经相去较远，而且尚未见反弹迹象，算是破“扎实”，破“安逸”了。\n3、中概股还有未来吗？\n美股方面：\n“在美国上市的中国公司前景很难说，要看是否能够符合美国的会计标准，目前美国的监管可谓非常严格。这对于准备在美上市的中国企业来说，更需做好危机应对准备。”美国汇盛金融管理公司首席经济学家陈凯丰说。\n“过去由于受AH市场上市制度限制影响，部分未盈利、同股不同权企业只能选择赴美上市。在今年国内外监管政策持续收紧，以及AH市场制度改革为中概股回归创造条件的背景下，美股中概股回归中国资本市场是大势所趋。”广发证券首席策略分析师戴康说。\n在美股中概股日益艰难之际，回港上市成为不少企业的选择。\n德勤研究报告称，受惠于第二上市和不同股权架构新股上市，2021年上半年香港新股融资总额同比上涨138%，达到2097亿港元，融资额突破了2011年同期的历史高点，为多年以来最高纪录；2021年上半年，前四名新股融资额都超过200亿港元，受惠于多只大型新股，使得今年香港主板平均融资规模大幅提升182%到18.1亿港元。\n然而，登陆港股之后，这些中概股也并不舒服。\n对于未来港股市场的走势，恒生科技ETF基金经理冉凌浩认为，2020年港股表现明显不如美股及A股，但港股前期的滞胀正是为将来的补涨提供了充足的空间，未来也将会有多重动能驱动港股上涨。长期来看，港股市场走势完全由上市公司盈利水平决定；未来两年，港股上市公司盈利有望快速上行，有力支撑港股走势。\n也有公司盯上了A股，如理想汽车。\n8月12日，在美股上市后一年多后，理想汽车再度IPO，登陆港股市场，成为继小鹏汽车之后，第二家双重上市的造车新势力企业。发行价118港元\n新势力三巨头之一的理想汽车，上市首日便破发，随后连续下跌，价值8月20日，收报104.6港元。\n理想汽车总裁沈亚楠表示，理想可能要“回A”。\n“理想汽车美股、港股、A股都是我们整盘扩展资金渠道的规划，所以我们不排除回归A股的可能。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838608087,"gmtCreate":1629388257549,"gmtModify":1676530026718,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838608087","repostId":"1132455826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132455826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629378280,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132455826?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will the US stock market really fall if the Federal Reserve \"tightens monetary policy\"? How much did it fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132455826","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌，但想要大跌下去的话，可能不会大。","content":"<p>A long-discussed taper issue has once again struck fear into global financial markets.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US stocks accelerated their decline late last night, triggering a major shock in global financial markets and causing commodities such as iron ore, energy, and non-ferrous metals to plummet across the board. This morning, Japanese and South Korean stock markets followed suit, falling sharply. Hong Kong stocks followed suit in the afternoon, and then...<b>European stock markets also suffered in the afternoon, and almost no financial market was spared.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5fddb05c7caa94a3b1f6ec9c93df7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the released minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the Fed explicitly discussed Taper (tapering bond purchases) for the first time, and also included a special chapter on \"discussing asset purchases\".</p><p><b>From public discussion to the first official clarification and more specific timeline, this signal has become the source of almost all panic.</b></p><p>It seems that the earlier timing of the water withdrawal is a consensus conclusion, but the problem is that the Federal Reserve has been indecisive on this issue many times. This time, can it really press this \"nuclear button\" that may have been pressed long ago?</p><p><i><b>01</b></i><b>Persistently high inflation</b></p><p>The Fed's minutes did not make any detailed decisions, only stating that the price stability and employment targets were close to satisfactory levels. But as always, among the members \"<b>Remaining differences</b>The main problem is that many people still believe that \"<b>The rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon</b>”。</p><p>To be honest, the Federal Reserve has recently been somewhat adhering to Keynesian principles, and will...<b>Full employment</b>\"Putting it first, inflation data now seems to have become a subsidiary.\"</p><p>The United States' loose monetary policy, massive fiscal subsidies, and recovering economy are continuously stimulating CPI growth. This indicator broke through the 2% threshold in March of this year, and the year-on-year growth rate in June and July reached a historical high of 5.4%, indicating that the economy is showing signs of overheating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed5b554b6bc3ec62446ff022141ee8c\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Americans are already suffering greatly from soaring prices. Although many residents can still receive generous unemployment benefits, the prices of consumer goods such as meat, fruits, and vegetables have skyrocketed, causing the purchasing power of the benefits to continue to decline.</p><p>The $1.2 trillion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion budget spending plans passed by the Senate will continue to stimulate the growth of infrastructure-related raw material prices in the United States and even globally, which has sown the seeds for further inflation in the future.</p><p>The supply shortage is also reflected in the PPI. In July, the PPI rose 7.8% year-on-year, and the gap between PPI and CPI continues to widen, squeezing corporate profits. This may be transmitted to consumer prices in the future.</p><p>Therefore, it seems<b>Inflationary pressures remain significant and may not fall back to normal levels as smoothly as expected. From this perspective, the instability of CPI growth will not be good news for either the economy or the stock market.</b></p><p>Logically, if inflation data is too high, the Federal Reserve should take tightening measures to control it, but the Fed has been slow to give clear instructions. Instead, they kept reassuring the market, saying that \"rate hike is still a long way off.\"</p><p>Behind this, in addition to the impact of the resurgence of the Delta epidemic, it is also related to the fact that the current rise and fall in employment data is not yet reassuring.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e46fbe9106463d3d09556d36fbc3cd2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But more importantly,<b>Strong medicine is a high-risk treatment that is a last resort for serious illnesses, and it does not guarantee a single victory without worries. Although the United States has achieved great results in supporting its economic recovery through massive monetary easing, it has sown significant side effects, including extremely high dependence and persistently high inflation.</b></p><p>This is precisely why the Federal Reserve has been hesitant and indecisive in its consideration of withdrawing water. Because it knows that once the drug is stopped, the cost could be very high.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i><b>Is the economy really overheating?</b></p><p>In fact, the strength of the US economy has not exceeded the Federal Reserve's expectations in some aspects, and there are contradictions between different data points.</p><p>First, the US manufacturing sector recovered steadily, with the manufacturing PMI reaching a new high of 63.40 in July, exceeding expectations.</p><p><b>However, the employment situation, which the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, does not seem to have yet reached its threshold.</b></p><p>Although the unemployment rate has declined significantly since the beginning of the year, now falling back to 5.4%, better than the expected 5.7%, it is still some distance from the 3-4% before the pandemic. In addition, in the week of August 12, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 375,000, which is still lower than the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e549a63987d92ac38cbcdadb19aa84\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of job vacancies is constantly increasing, which indicates that the increase in employment is not enough to meet the demand for jobs, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market is becoming increasingly serious.</p><p>The $1.9 trillion bailout bill pushed by Biden in March did not end until September, allowing eligible residents to receive substantial relief payments. Some residents, thinking they can earn money passively, naturally lose interest in finding jobs. This, to some extent, has inhibited the recovery of the local job market, preventing the supply of enterprise products from rising, and keeping market supply and demand tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df72758e634507d170c77cc7b60ecd1\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, consumer data has not yet met expectations. The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released July retail sales data, which showed a 1.1% month-on-month decline, compared to a 0.6% increase in the previous month.</p><p>Since personal consumption expenditures account for approximately 70% of the total U.S. economy, this data is closely watched by the market as an indicator of the overall health of the economy. The sluggish growth in the data indicates that US consumption has not yet recovered to its original and expected growth momentum. If subsidies are stopped later, consumption may lose its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c32bcf506c08d16090a67fb55ac030\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the pandemic, U.S. fiscal spending has been steadily increasing, reaching $7.7 trillion in fiscal year 2021, primarily for unemployment relief, nutrition assistance, and COVID-19 relief programs.</p><p>The Senate also recently passed Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion budget plan primarily focused on poverty alleviation and climate improvement. If it passes the House of Representatives review smoothly in the later stages, the high fiscal expenditure will increase again.</p><p>In reality, Biden's overall policy does not deviate from the consistent philosophy of the Democratic Party, still stimulating the economy through high fiscal spending, and the sources of funds he relies on are bond issuance and tax increases. If tax increases cannot cover the aforementioned expenditures, then bond issuance will be the only option.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low, it will be more conducive to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf4374f269e5ac0784aed8157abc09\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to research by Huaxi Securities, the United States experienced four interest rate cut cycles from 1984 to 2015. In all four periods, the Federal Reserve faced a significant economic downturn when it began cutting interest rates. Except for the period from 1984 to 1986, the economic recession occurred shortly after the interest rate cuts in the following three periods. However, in the middle and late stages of the interest rate cuts, the economy gradually recovered and regained growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879dbfed5c68d676a0a4d688b52dd2a9\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on historical trajectories, the US rate hike should only arrive when the economy itself recovers to a stable and normal growth rate before rate hike. However, judging from the current performance (such as consumption and employment indicators), it may not be time to consider rate hike yet.</p><p><b>However, faced with high inflation, it may be inevitable for the Federal Reserve to shift to an anti-inflation model. The upcoming employment data will be crucial. If the unemployment rate falls back to around 5%, a taper will arrive quickly.</b></p><p><i><b>03</b></i><b>Will the US stock market plummet this time?</b></p><p>The question of whether the US stock market will jump has been discussed countless times, and has also been proven wrong countless times.</p><p>So far, apart from the sudden impact of the pandemic last year, the US stock market has been in a bull market for 12 years. Even against the backdrop of increasing calls for water consolidation and significant volatility in overseas markets, the three major indices continued to reach new highs.</p><p>But this time, compared to the past,<b>With a more complex macroeconomic environment, higher inflation, and a larger debt scale, if a tightening cycle truly begins, can the US stock market withstand it as before?</b></p><p>Finance is the most fundamental influencing factor of market fluctuations, which is the economic and liquidity aspects.</p><p>On the economic front, although there are many side effects and significant problems, the overall strong economic recovery in the United States is a certainty. The continuous economic recovery will definitely gradually be reflected in the performance growth of enterprises, which is also a force supporting corporate stock prices.</p><p>US stocks began to far exceed expectations in the first quarter. Major industries such as automobiles, durable goods, retail, media, finance, healthcare, information technology, and raw materials all saw very high year-on-year EPS growth. In addition to the low base caused by the impact of the pandemic last year, the rapid economic recovery also played a significant role.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, companies in many industries continued to maintain stronger-than-expected earnings growth.</b></p><p>Currently, institutions are forecasting a consistent earnings growth rate of 38% for US stocks in 2021 (50%+ in the first half of the year), and 2022 is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels. Although the high growth rate driven by last year's low base will decline month by month starting in the second half of the year, the market expects profit growth in the third quarter to still be 24%, which is still considerable overall.<b>Correspondingly, the current valuation of US stocks does not seem too expensive.</b></p><p>As of now, the P/E of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 26.4 times, the Nasdaq Industrial Average is 40.3 times, and the S&P 500 is 27.2 times. Apart from the Nasdaq Industrial Average, it is generally not expensive compared to other major markets.</p><p>Furthermore, the current P/E of the major giants that hold a large weight are not high. Among the top 20 companies with the largest market capitalization, apart from Tesla, the valuations of the others are really low, exceeding many people's expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329eb3056a9b9f6a55ff253a1f0bf801\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of liquidity, even a slight tightening of liquidity by the US dollar, as a global currency anchor, has never been a major problem for US stocks because global funds will replenish themselves. This has happened countless times in the past. Unless the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy drastically, the likelihood of a significant decline in US stocks is very small.</p><p>There have been numerous macroeconomic risk events in the past year, and the market has also experienced significant corrections. However, global funds still prefer larger stock markets, especially the US stock market, which has always been a top priority. In this situation, even if there is a bubble in the US stock market, it is unlikely that it will lose financial support, especially since the economic fundamentals are not bad.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a966f1e4c95f2e2355d57a28159ecb3\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Divergence in global market capital flows to stocks and bonds in 2021 - Source: Open Source Securities)</p><p>Overall, positive fundamentals, a still loose monetary environment, decent valuations, and the preferences of global funds—this is the underlying logic behind the fact that US stocks have always been more likely to rise than fall.</p><p>Under the current trend, these underlying factors have not changed, so US stocks may fall in the short term due to market sentiment, but the sharp drop may not be significant.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the US stock market really fall if the Federal Reserve \"tightens monetary policy\"? How much did it fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the US stock market really fall if the Federal Reserve \"tightens monetary policy\"? How much did it fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 21:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A long-discussed taper issue has once again struck fear into global financial markets.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US stocks accelerated their decline late last night, triggering a major shock in global financial markets and causing commodities such as iron ore, energy, and non-ferrous metals to plummet across the board. This morning, Japanese and South Korean stock markets followed suit, falling sharply. Hong Kong stocks followed suit in the afternoon, and then...<b>European stock markets also suffered in the afternoon, and almost no financial market was spared.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5fddb05c7caa94a3b1f6ec9c93df7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the released minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the Fed explicitly discussed Taper (tapering bond purchases) for the first time, and also included a special chapter on \"discussing asset purchases\".</p><p><b>From public discussion to the first official clarification and more specific timeline, this signal has become the source of almost all panic.</b></p><p>It seems that the earlier timing of the water withdrawal is a consensus conclusion, but the problem is that the Federal Reserve has been indecisive on this issue many times. This time, can it really press this \"nuclear button\" that may have been pressed long ago?</p><p><i><b>01</b></i><b>Persistently high inflation</b></p><p>The Fed's minutes did not make any detailed decisions, only stating that the price stability and employment targets were close to satisfactory levels. But as always, among the members \"<b>Remaining differences</b>The main problem is that many people still believe that \"<b>The rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon</b>”。</p><p>To be honest, the Federal Reserve has recently been somewhat adhering to Keynesian principles, and will...<b>Full employment</b>\"Putting it first, inflation data now seems to have become a subsidiary.\"</p><p>The United States' loose monetary policy, massive fiscal subsidies, and recovering economy are continuously stimulating CPI growth. This indicator broke through the 2% threshold in March of this year, and the year-on-year growth rate in June and July reached a historical high of 5.4%, indicating that the economy is showing signs of overheating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed5b554b6bc3ec62446ff022141ee8c\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Americans are already suffering greatly from soaring prices. Although many residents can still receive generous unemployment benefits, the prices of consumer goods such as meat, fruits, and vegetables have skyrocketed, causing the purchasing power of the benefits to continue to decline.</p><p>The $1.2 trillion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion budget spending plans passed by the Senate will continue to stimulate the growth of infrastructure-related raw material prices in the United States and even globally, which has sown the seeds for further inflation in the future.</p><p>The supply shortage is also reflected in the PPI. In July, the PPI rose 7.8% year-on-year, and the gap between PPI and CPI continues to widen, squeezing corporate profits. This may be transmitted to consumer prices in the future.</p><p>Therefore, it seems<b>Inflationary pressures remain significant and may not fall back to normal levels as smoothly as expected. From this perspective, the instability of CPI growth will not be good news for either the economy or the stock market.</b></p><p>Logically, if inflation data is too high, the Federal Reserve should take tightening measures to control it, but the Fed has been slow to give clear instructions. Instead, they kept reassuring the market, saying that \"rate hike is still a long way off.\"</p><p>Behind this, in addition to the impact of the resurgence of the Delta epidemic, it is also related to the fact that the current rise and fall in employment data is not yet reassuring.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e46fbe9106463d3d09556d36fbc3cd2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But more importantly,<b>Strong medicine is a high-risk treatment that is a last resort for serious illnesses, and it does not guarantee a single victory without worries. Although the United States has achieved great results in supporting its economic recovery through massive monetary easing, it has sown significant side effects, including extremely high dependence and persistently high inflation.</b></p><p>This is precisely why the Federal Reserve has been hesitant and indecisive in its consideration of withdrawing water. Because it knows that once the drug is stopped, the cost could be very high.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i><b>Is the economy really overheating?</b></p><p>In fact, the strength of the US economy has not exceeded the Federal Reserve's expectations in some aspects, and there are contradictions between different data points.</p><p>First, the US manufacturing sector recovered steadily, with the manufacturing PMI reaching a new high of 63.40 in July, exceeding expectations.</p><p><b>However, the employment situation, which the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, does not seem to have yet reached its threshold.</b></p><p>Although the unemployment rate has declined significantly since the beginning of the year, now falling back to 5.4%, better than the expected 5.7%, it is still some distance from the 3-4% before the pandemic. In addition, in the week of August 12, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 375,000, which is still lower than the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e549a63987d92ac38cbcdadb19aa84\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of job vacancies is constantly increasing, which indicates that the increase in employment is not enough to meet the demand for jobs, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market is becoming increasingly serious.</p><p>The $1.9 trillion bailout bill pushed by Biden in March did not end until September, allowing eligible residents to receive substantial relief payments. Some residents, thinking they can earn money passively, naturally lose interest in finding jobs. This, to some extent, has inhibited the recovery of the local job market, preventing the supply of enterprise products from rising, and keeping market supply and demand tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df72758e634507d170c77cc7b60ecd1\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, consumer data has not yet met expectations. The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released July retail sales data, which showed a 1.1% month-on-month decline, compared to a 0.6% increase in the previous month.</p><p>Since personal consumption expenditures account for approximately 70% of the total U.S. economy, this data is closely watched by the market as an indicator of the overall health of the economy. The sluggish growth in the data indicates that US consumption has not yet recovered to its original and expected growth momentum. If subsidies are stopped later, consumption may lose its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c32bcf506c08d16090a67fb55ac030\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the pandemic, U.S. fiscal spending has been steadily increasing, reaching $7.7 trillion in fiscal year 2021, primarily for unemployment relief, nutrition assistance, and COVID-19 relief programs.</p><p>The Senate also recently passed Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion budget plan primarily focused on poverty alleviation and climate improvement. If it passes the House of Representatives review smoothly in the later stages, the high fiscal expenditure will increase again.</p><p>In reality, Biden's overall policy does not deviate from the consistent philosophy of the Democratic Party, still stimulating the economy through high fiscal spending, and the sources of funds he relies on are bond issuance and tax increases. If tax increases cannot cover the aforementioned expenditures, then bond issuance will be the only option.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low, it will be more conducive to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf4374f269e5ac0784aed8157abc09\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to research by Huaxi Securities, the United States experienced four interest rate cut cycles from 1984 to 2015. In all four periods, the Federal Reserve faced a significant economic downturn when it began cutting interest rates. Except for the period from 1984 to 1986, the economic recession occurred shortly after the interest rate cuts in the following three periods. However, in the middle and late stages of the interest rate cuts, the economy gradually recovered and regained growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879dbfed5c68d676a0a4d688b52dd2a9\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on historical trajectories, the US rate hike should only arrive when the economy itself recovers to a stable and normal growth rate before rate hike. However, judging from the current performance (such as consumption and employment indicators), it may not be time to consider rate hike yet.</p><p><b>However, faced with high inflation, it may be inevitable for the Federal Reserve to shift to an anti-inflation model. The upcoming employment data will be crucial. If the unemployment rate falls back to around 5%, a taper will arrive quickly.</b></p><p><i><b>03</b></i><b>Will the US stock market plummet this time?</b></p><p>The question of whether the US stock market will jump has been discussed countless times, and has also been proven wrong countless times.</p><p>So far, apart from the sudden impact of the pandemic last year, the US stock market has been in a bull market for 12 years. Even against the backdrop of increasing calls for water consolidation and significant volatility in overseas markets, the three major indices continued to reach new highs.</p><p>But this time, compared to the past,<b>With a more complex macroeconomic environment, higher inflation, and a larger debt scale, if a tightening cycle truly begins, can the US stock market withstand it as before?</b></p><p>Finance is the most fundamental influencing factor of market fluctuations, which is the economic and liquidity aspects.</p><p>On the economic front, although there are many side effects and significant problems, the overall strong economic recovery in the United States is a certainty. The continuous economic recovery will definitely gradually be reflected in the performance growth of enterprises, which is also a force supporting corporate stock prices.</p><p>US stocks began to far exceed expectations in the first quarter. Major industries such as automobiles, durable goods, retail, media, finance, healthcare, information technology, and raw materials all saw very high year-on-year EPS growth. In addition to the low base caused by the impact of the pandemic last year, the rapid economic recovery also played a significant role.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, companies in many industries continued to maintain stronger-than-expected earnings growth.</b></p><p>Currently, institutions are forecasting a consistent earnings growth rate of 38% for US stocks in 2021 (50%+ in the first half of the year), and 2022 is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels. Although the high growth rate driven by last year's low base will decline month by month starting in the second half of the year, the market expects profit growth in the third quarter to still be 24%, which is still considerable overall.<b>Correspondingly, the current valuation of US stocks does not seem too expensive.</b></p><p>As of now, the P/E of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 26.4 times, the Nasdaq Industrial Average is 40.3 times, and the S&P 500 is 27.2 times. Apart from the Nasdaq Industrial Average, it is generally not expensive compared to other major markets.</p><p>Furthermore, the current P/E of the major giants that hold a large weight are not high. Among the top 20 companies with the largest market capitalization, apart from Tesla, the valuations of the others are really low, exceeding many people's expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329eb3056a9b9f6a55ff253a1f0bf801\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of liquidity, even a slight tightening of liquidity by the US dollar, as a global currency anchor, has never been a major problem for US stocks because global funds will replenish themselves. This has happened countless times in the past. Unless the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy drastically, the likelihood of a significant decline in US stocks is very small.</p><p>There have been numerous macroeconomic risk events in the past year, and the market has also experienced significant corrections. However, global funds still prefer larger stock markets, especially the US stock market, which has always been a top priority. In this situation, even if there is a bubble in the US stock market, it is unlikely that it will lose financial support, especially since the economic fundamentals are not bad.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a966f1e4c95f2e2355d57a28159ecb3\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Divergence in global market capital flows to stocks and bonds in 2021 - Source: Open Source Securities)</p><p>Overall, positive fundamentals, a still loose monetary environment, decent valuations, and the preferences of global funds—this is the underlying logic behind the fact that US stocks have always been more likely to rise than fall.</p><p>Under the current trend, these underlying factors have not changed, so US stocks may fall in the short term due to market sentiment, but the sharp drop may not be significant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1132455826","content_text":"一个讨论已久的taper问题，让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。\n美联储的会议纪要公布后，美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探，进而引发全球金融市场巨震，连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌，午后港股午盘接力，然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃，全金融市场，几乎无一幸免。\n\n在公布的美联储会议纪要中，美联储首次明确讨论Taper（缩减购债），还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。\n从民间讨论，到官方首次明确，并给出更加具体的时间，这个信号几成为一切恐慌的来源。\n似乎收水时间提前已是共识性结论，但问题是，美联储在这个问题上已经多次态度飘忽不定，这一次，它真能不顾一切摁下这个可能早就改摁的“核按钮”吗？\n01高烧不退的通胀\n美联储的这个纪要并没有做出任何细节的决定，只是说就着价格稳定目标、就业目标方面已经接近让人满意的水平。但一如既往的，成员间“还存在的分歧”，主要问题在于很多人还是认为“通胀的上涨是暂时的现象”。\n说实在的，美联储最近有些坚守凯恩斯主义的意思，将“充分就业”放在了首位，通胀数据如今好像成了附庸。\n美国宽松的货币政策、巨量的财政补贴、复苏的经济不断刺激着CPI的增长，该指标自今年3月就突破2%的门槛，6、7月的同比增速更是到达了历史高位5.4%，经济呈现复苏过热的苗头。\n\n美国民众对着日益高涨的物价，早也苦不堪言，虽然还有很多居民可以领取丰厚的失业救助金，但生活消费品如肉类、水果、蔬菜等价格都出现疯狂飙升，让救助金的购买力不断下降。\n而如今参议院已通过的1.2万亿基建和3.5万亿美元的预算开支计划也还将持续不断地刺激着美国甚至全球基建相关的原材料价格的增长，这给未来通胀的进一步上涨埋下了可能。\n供应紧缺方面其实在PPI上也有体现，7月PPI同比上涨7.8%，PPI和CPI之间差距不断扩大，企业利润情况受到压缩，后期可能会传导至消费端价格。\n由此看来，通胀的压力还是很大的，不一定能和预期一样平稳回落至正常水平，从这方面判断，CPI增速的不稳定性对于经济和股市都将不是利好的信息。\n按理说通胀数据过高，美联储就应该采用紧缩措施进行控制，但美联储迟迟未给出明确指示。而是不断安抚市场说“距离加息还很遥远”。\n这背后，除了德尔塔疫情再爆发的影响，也与目前就业数据的涨跌尚未能让人放心有关。\n\n但更主要的，重病下猛药实为不得已的高风险疗法，并不是一招致胜就后顾无忧。现在美国通过超大规模放水“吃猛药”扶持起立的经济复苏，虽然有了极大的成效，但埋下的后遗症却是极大，一个是依赖性极强，另一个是通胀高烧不退。\n正是如此，美联储在收水的考虑上，才一直飘忽不定，犹豫不决。因为它深知一旦药停，代价可能非常大。\n02经济真的过热了吗？\n其实美国经济的强度在一些表现上还没强到超出美联储的预期，不同的数据之间存在着矛盾。\n首先是美国制造业稳健恢复，7月份制造业PMI录得新高63.40，超出预期。\n但美联储最关注的就业方面的情况好像还没有触及其门槛。\n虽然自年初以来失业率下降明显，现回落至5.4%的水平，优于预期5.7%，但是和疫情前的3-4%还是有一定的距离。另外8月12日当周，首次申请失业金人数为37.5万人，距离疫情前平均水平20万人还是有差距。\n\n同时，职位空缺的数量不断增大，这说明就业的增量还不足以补足岗位的需求，劳动力市场的供需不平衡的情况日益严重。\n而拜登3月推动的1.9万亿美元纾困法案至9月才停止，符合资格的居民可以领取高额的救济金。部分居民想着能躺着挣钱，当然对找工作没了想法，这就从某种程度上抑制了本土就业市场的恢复，使得企业产品的供应上不来，市场供需依旧紧张。\n\n此外，消费数据还没有达到预期，美国商务部日前公布7月零售销售数据，环比下降1.1%，，前值为增长0.6%。\n由于个人消费支出占美国经济总量的约70%，该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。而数据的增长乏力，说明了美国消费还没有恢复原本的和预期的增长力度。后期如果停止了补助，消费可能会丧失增长动力。\n\n自疫情以来，美国财政支出规模不断增加，2021财年美国财政支出高达7.7万亿美元，支出主要用于失业救济、营养援助和新冠救援项目。\n参议院还在近日通过了拜登的1.2万亿美元的一揽子基建计划和主要致力于反贫困和改善气候环境3.5万亿的预算计划。若是在后期顺利通过众议院审核，那高额的财政支出又将拔高。\n实际上拜登的整体施政方针并没有超出民主党一贯的理念，依旧是通过高额的财政支出拉动经济，而其所依靠的资金来源就是通过发债及加税。如果加税没有办法弥补上述的支出金额，那只能又靠发债。\n而若美联储将利率保持较低利率，会更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n\n根据华西证券的研究，美国从1984年至2015年曾经历过四次降息周期。这四个时期，美联储开始降息时都面临着较大的经济下行。除了1984-1986这个时期，后面三个时期在降息不久后，都出现了经济衰退，而到降息中后期，经济逐渐得到恢复，重获增长动力。\n\n那用历史的轨迹推至今日，美国加息应该在经济自身恢复稳定正常的增速时，加息的脚步才会到来，而从现在的表现来说（比如消费、就业方面的指标）可能还没到达考虑加息的时刻。\n但面对高额的通胀率，美联储向抗通胀模式转向可能是不可避免，接下来的就业数据将是关键，若是失业率回落至5%左右，taper将会快速到来。\n03这一次美股会大跌吗？\n关于美股会不会蹦的话题，大家已经被讨论过了无数次，也被打脸了无数次。\n美股到现在为止，除了去年的疫情突发冲击，到如今已经长达12年的大牛市行情。即使是在收水呼声不断提升，海外市场明显震荡的背景下，三大指数依然不断创出新高。\n但这一次相比以往，是更复杂的宏观环境，更高的通胀问题以及更大的债务规模，如果真是一个收水周期的开始，美股还能一如既往扛得住吗？\n金融是市场的波动最底层的影响因素是经济面和流动性层面。\n在经济面，虽然一些副作用挺多问题也挺大，但总体上美国的经济强势复苏是确定性方向，经济不断复苏肯定会逐渐反应在企业层面的业绩增长，这也是支撑企业股价的力量。\n美股的一季度整体业绩就开始大超预期，包括汽车、耐用品、零售、媒体、金融、医疗保健、信息科技、原材料等主要行业的EPS同比增速都非常高，除了去年疫情冲击导致的低基数外，经济快速复苏也有很大作用。\n二季度，很多行业公司表现出来的业绩增长也继续维持超预期的强劲。\n现在机构对美股2021年的盈利一致性预期增速高达38%（上半年50%+），2022年有望回归疫情之前的水平。虽然下半年开始由去年低基数带来的高增速会逐月回落，但市场预期预计三季度盈利增速依然有24%，整体依然可观，对应下来，美股当下的估值并不显得太贵了。\n截止目前，美股道指的市盈率26.4倍，纳指40.3倍，标普500的指数27.2倍，除了纳指，总体上相对其他主要市场并不算贵。\n并且占据大权重的各大超级巨头目前的市盈率也并不高，市值最大的前top20中，除了特斯拉外，其余的估值真的还很低，超出很多人的意料。\n\n在流动性方面，实际上，美元的作为全球货币锚，即使是小幅度收紧流动性，其实对美股来说从来不是大问题，因为全球资金会回补，这个事情在过去发生过无数次了。除非美联储要超大幅度收水，否则美股出现大幅度下跌的可能性会非常小。\n近一年来的宏观风险事件非常多，市场也不乏大幅度回调，但全球的资金依然偏好更大的股市，尤其美股市场，一直是重中之重。这种情况下，美股就算有泡沫，也很难会失去资金支持，何况经济基本面趋势并不算差。\n\n（2021年全球市场资金股债流向分化    来源：开源证券）\n总体看，向好的基本面，加依然宽松的货币环境，加过得去的估值，加全球资金的偏好，这就是美股一直易涨难跌的底层逻辑。\n当前趋势下，这些底层因素还没有发生转变，所以美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌，但想要大跌下去的话，可能不会大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174752907,"gmtCreate":1627144259409,"gmtModify":1703484779261,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"QE lo","listText":"QE lo","text":"QE lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174752907","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153809933","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627105483,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153809933?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 13:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153809933","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27 and 28, and although stock market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. Besides the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, the more important question is whether the Federal Reserve has already provided details on tapering its policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made it clear during his testimony to Congress that he still believes inflationary pressures are largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an imminent policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>However, ING strategists mentioned that at the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference at the end of August, Fed officials will begin preparing to taper quantitative easing, further refining it at the FOMC meeting in September before making a formal announcement in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as quickly as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many companies urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to tighten, such as tapering QE. However, most people still expect the Federal Reserve to not announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will \"put the details of the tapering on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest that the Federal Reserve's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines became widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would begin hiring workers in large numbers. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has been generally unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment has forced the Federal Reserve to consider tapering some of the easing stimulus policies it has already implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that while wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. Compared to the same period last year, the consumer price index rose 5.4% in June, meaning that inflation-adjusted incomes fell by more than 2%. Even the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of Core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE), which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May compared to the same period last year.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised its 2021 inflation forecast to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be too optimistic. Inflation is likely to continue rising for the rest of the year. However, the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said that the Federal Reserve had made too many mistakes in the past and that he was willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a moderate period of time before tightening.</p><p>However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting show increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Federal Reserve currently buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still take several years.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about discussions on tapering bond purchases that began in June. Discussions around this issue are likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, as the Federal Reserve's current signals continue to favor earlier policy normalization. His remarks about Chairman Powell may suggest that while discussions about reducing quantitative easing have begun, there is still plenty of time before they need to reach a conclusion on the actions they will take.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27 and 28, and although stock market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. Besides the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, the more important question is whether the Federal Reserve has already provided details on tapering its policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made it clear during his testimony to Congress that he still believes inflationary pressures are largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an imminent policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>However, ING strategists mentioned that at the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference at the end of August, Fed officials will begin preparing to taper quantitative easing, further refining it at the FOMC meeting in September before making a formal announcement in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as quickly as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many companies urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to tighten, such as tapering QE. However, most people still expect the Federal Reserve to not announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will \"put the details of the tapering on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest that the Federal Reserve's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines became widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would begin hiring workers in large numbers. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has been generally unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment has forced the Federal Reserve to consider tapering some of the easing stimulus policies it has already implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that while wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. Compared to the same period last year, the consumer price index rose 5.4% in June, meaning that inflation-adjusted incomes fell by more than 2%. Even the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of Core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE), which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May compared to the same period last year.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised its 2021 inflation forecast to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be too optimistic. Inflation is likely to continue rising for the rest of the year. However, the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said that the Federal Reserve had made too many mistakes in the past and that he was willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a moderate period of time before tightening.</p><p>However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting show increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Federal Reserve currently buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still take several years.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about discussions on tapering bond purchases that began in June. Discussions around this issue are likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, as the Federal Reserve's current signals continue to favor earlier policy normalization. His remarks about Chairman Powell may suggest that while discussions about reducing quantitative easing have begun, there is still plenty of time before they need to reach a conclusion on the actions they will take.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a01b74d12bd250d548a4cdbf0d9091","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2153809933","content_text":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。除了市场急需知道鲍威尔目前的态度，更重要的是美联储是否已经有了缩减政策细节。\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近在国会作证时明确表示，他仍然认为通胀压力在很大程度上是暂时的，没有任何迫切需要发出政策即将转变的信号。毕竟，就业水平仍比疫情开始前低600多万，而最新的新冠疫情增加了另一层不确定性，可以用来为不采取行动辩护。\n但是ING策略师谈到即将在8月底举行的杰克逊霍尔美联储会议(Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference)上，美联储官员将开始为缩减量化宽松做准备，并在9月份的FOMC会议上进一步细化，然后在12月份正式宣布。\n经济正在增长，尽管可能没有今年早些时候一些人预期的那么快。此外许多企业迫切需要工人，但仍有数百万人失业。最近几周，疫苗接种率停滞不前，感染病例数量上升。尽管如此美联储正面临着收紧压力，如缩减QE。但大部分人还是预计美联储不会在下周会议上宣布任何新举措，但焦点是鲍威尔是否会把缩减细节“摆上桌面”来讨论。\n劳动力市场迹象暗示美联储的宽松远没有结束。经济学家和市场观察人士曾希望，到4月份疫苗广泛普及、许多经济限制开始解除的时候，雇主将开始大批雇佣工人。然而，现实却远没有这么乐观。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的最新数据显示非农增速在最近数月总体不是很稳定。\n另外一方面，当下通胀环境又让美联储不得不考虑缩减一些已经实施的宽松刺激政策。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的三个月移动平均数据显示，尽管6月份的工资比去年同期高出3.2%，但通货膨胀率却上升得更高。与去年同期相比，6月份消费者价格指数增长了5.4%，这意味着经通胀调整后的收入下降了2%以上。即便是美联储青睐的剔除食品和能源价格波动的核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)指标，5月份也较上年同期上涨了3.4%。\n事实上，一个月前，美联储将2021年的通胀预期从3月份的2.2%上调至3%，但即便如此也可能过于乐观。在今年余下的时间里，通胀可能会持续上升。不过，美联储也未必会不急于介入。在去年8月的一次讲话中，鲍威尔表示，美联储在过去犯了太多的错误，他愿意在收紧之前，让价格在一段适度的时间内超过央行2%的目标。\n不过，美联储最近一次会议的纪要显示，人们对讨论缩减债券购买规模的兴趣有所增加。美联储目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券，但短期加息可能仍需数年时间。\nING策略师认为尽管美联储预计在7月份的会议上不会改变政策，但市场可能会听到更多有关6月份开始的缩减购债讨论的消息。在8月份的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议上，围绕这一问题的讨论可能会升温，因为美联储目前发出的信号仍倾向于更早的政策正常化。其谈到鲍威尔主席可能会暗示，虽然有关缩减量化宽松的讨论已经开始，但在他们需要就他们将采取的行动得出结论之前，还有很多时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144613177,"gmtCreate":1626278907699,"gmtModify":1703757101017,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144613177","repostId":"1135388122","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145133308,"gmtCreate":1626194593804,"gmtModify":1703755379047,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go to the moon","listText":"Go to the moon","text":"Go to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145133308","repostId":"2150889655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156722704,"gmtCreate":1625237758108,"gmtModify":1703739217264,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah… take a rest","listText":"Yeah… take a rest","text":"Yeah… take a rest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156722704","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159458414,"gmtCreate":1624977786238,"gmtModify":1703849372685,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Serious?runnnnnn","listText":"Serious?runnnnnn","text":"Serious?runnnnnn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159458414","repostId":"2147863837","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120076995,"gmtCreate":1624290330917,"gmtModify":1703832697079,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How much","listText":"How much","text":"How much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120076995","repostId":"1196526895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196526895","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1624286593,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196526895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Domestic \"Internet Celebrity\" Electric Vehicles: The Secret Behind Their Cheapness","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196526895","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"国产廉价电动车，重出江湖。","content":"<p>Author/Wang Xiaoyu</p><p>Domestically produced inexpensive electric vehicles are making a comeback.</p><p>On June 8, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released domestic automobile sales data for May. Unexpectedly, surrounded by negative news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>China did not experience a sharp drop in sales, with 33,463 new cars sold in May, a 29% increase from 25,845 in April. As expected, the \"Wuling miracle car\" Hongguang MINI EV continued to top the list with 29,706 units sold.</p><p>Although this list lists 15 new energy vehicles, the focus of public opinion is undoubtedly on the second and third place models, these two \"popular cars\" from Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a821fb9d394d8f9f5386fd832ac7bb2a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we take a closer look at this list... I believe no Chinese automaker can laugh.</p><p>Among the top 15 models in May's sales charts, eight were priced below 100,000 yuan (inclusive). In other words, the vast majority of the best-selling domestic new energy vehicles are low-end models.</p><p><b>I. Cheap electric vehicles are making a comeback</b></p><p>\"It looks the same as the old model, but the configuration is lower than the old model, and the airbags have been removed.\"</p><p>Recently, after visiting several 4S stores in the Laiguangying area of Chaoyang District, Beijing, Huxiu discovered that the Changan Benben EV, which ranks fourth on the new energy vehicle sales list, is actually a cheap electric vehicle with \"reduced features\".</p><p>According to this<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">Changan Automobile</a>The salesperson at the 4S store explained that the model they currently sell is the Benben E-star National Edition, which is a \"sibling\" of the older Changan Benben EV.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0504107bbcf8796f95f6fe2e3a95ba84\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the two models have no difference in appearance, as a model launched on January 15 this year, the price of the Changan Benben E-Star National Edition has been lowered to 29,800 yuan, which is 20,000 yuan lower than the starting price of 49,800 yuan for the base version of the old Benben EV.</p><p>The new model has been reduced in price by 20,000 yuan. Is this a way for the manufacturer to give back to consumers? The salesperson at a Changan Automobile 4S store told Huxiu that the 29,800 yuan and 39,800 yuan national versions have removed airbags. In comparison, the older Benben EV version, starting at 49,800 yuan, comes standard with driver and passenger airbags.</p><p>It's already 2021, and airbags aren't standard equipment? There are more than one suspected feature reductions in this Changan car. According to HM\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>The provided model specifications reveal that the National Edition has also removed parking radar and brake assist, even the wheels have been replaced from aluminum alloy to steel, and the air conditioning only has warm air.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764bebc0e19571bb4c3d9edd00517db5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Screenshot from Autohome</p><p>In terms of batteries, both low-end versions of the new model use lithium iron phosphate batteries. It is cheaper than the older ternary lithium battery, but the range has been reduced from 210km to 150km. \"If you want fast charging, you need to add an optional 999 yuan,\" the salesperson told Huxiu.</p><p>Even with the reduced features, the extremely low price attracted countless consumers to buy it. A salesperson present said that most of the configurations currently do not have cars, and it will take at least a month for them to be available. \"You can place your order now, that's the price anyway,\" the salesperson said casually before leaving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0987d939878f26811eb9f12d9a3ccebe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Benben isn't the only cheap electric vehicle that has no shortage of sales.</p><p>The Chery eQ, which ranked seventh on the sales list, was actually sold at Chery New Energy dealerships as the \"Chery Little Ant\"—a micro pure electric vehicle launched in 2016.</p><p>After five years of market testing, this car is still able to sell on the sales charts, not because of feature reductions, but because of discounts. For example, the mid-range version, priced at 69,800 yuan, offers cash discounts of up to 10,000 yuan, and the purchase price is less than 60,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581c7a8e469c3802e4d5d670f300357e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chery Little Ant (Photo: Huxiu)</p><p>A salesperson at Chery New Energy 4S store also said, \"There are still vehicles in stock, but that may not be the case next month. Beijing will release a batch of new energy vehicle quotas on the 26th of this month, and July will be the peak season.\"</p><p>Many distributors have offered cash subsidies of tens of thousands of yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Among the various models currently on sale under its ORA brand, the best-selling is the ORA Black Cat, with the lowest-end version priced at 69,800 yuan. The 4S store offered a cash discount of 10,500 yuan, and the purchase price was less than 60,000 yuan, the same as the Chery Ant. If you specify a configuration and there are no vehicles in stock, you will need to wait at least one month.</p><p>Low prices combined with cash discounts have become the secret to the sales of new energy vehicles for traditional automakers.</p><p><b>II. The Secret Behind Cheapness</b></p><p>In the early days of the new energy vehicle sector, subsidies were used to sell at low prices.</p><p>For example, the 2017 Chery eQ electric vehicle has a guide price range of 169,900-171,900 yuan. After enjoying national subsidies, local subsidies and manufacturer subsidies, the price is 69,800-71,800 yuan. Based on Beijing's new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2017, this car could receive a national and local subsidy of 56,000 yuan.</p><p>There are quite a few car companies that take exams in order to obtain subsidies. The most direct evidence is range. Since 2017, the new energy subsidy policy has raised the threshold for range, leading automakers to continuously launch long-range models to meet the policy threshold. Taking the 2018 subsidy policy as an example, compared with the 2017 policy, the subsidy amount for vehicles with a range of less than 300km was reduced, while the subsidy amount for vehicles with a range of more than 300km was increased accordingly.</p><p>This year's subsidy policy is even more interesting. According to the subsidy policy notice released on December 31, 2020, subsidies will be cancelled for all pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of less than 300 kilometers. Faced with domestic automakers, there are only two options: one is to increase the range to 300 kilometers and receive subsidies; Second, without subsidies, they insist on selling micro electric vehicles with low range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e77909845462fa45e894feee01125\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ORA Black Cat (Photo by Huxiu)</p><p>The first type of product will directly consider a 300km range as the product's passing grade. For example, the basic version of the ORA Black Cat has a range of 301km, the Benben E-star has a range of 301km, and the Chery Ant also has a range of 301km. In this way, while maximizing the subsidy amount, the increase in battery costs caused by excessive increases in range is avoided, ultimately minimizing product pricing.</p><p>The Wuling Hongguang MINI EV falls into the second category, requiring no subsidies and only the lowest price. The Hongguang MINI EV, starting at 28,800 yuan, has a range of only 120km. Even the high-end model priced at 43,600 yuan has a range of only 170km, which is far from the 300km subsidy threshold. As it turns out, it can sell well without government subsidies. Since its launch last July, the Hongguang MINI EV has maintained its position in the middle for nine consecutive months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>Market top seller.</p><p>The rise of the Hongguang MINI EV has prompted more automakers to explore subsidy-free \"uncharted territory\". For example, the former GAC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>According to an insider, Free Auto, founded by founder Liao Bing, is currently preparing to enter the micro pure electric vehicle market priced below 100,000 yuan, competing with best-selling models such as the Hongguang MINI EV and Changan Benben EV. In addition, Volkswagen's Sihao E10X, with a starting price of 39,900 to 75,900 yuan, offers three NEDC range versions: 150km, 200km, and 302km.</p><p>Seeing this, many people may wonder why gasoline-powered cars have never been sold so cheaply before, so why are pure electric vehicles so cheap that they are competing with \"elderly mobility scooters\" for market share? There's a secret behind the low price: a dual-points system.</p><p>In May of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the \"Annual Report on the Implementation of Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises (2021)\". The report shows that in 2020, among 138 passenger vehicle companies in China, there were 6.66 million negative fuel consumption credits and 3.28 million positive new energy vehicle credits. This means that there is still a gap of 3.38 million points in the dual-credit system.</p><p>Let me briefly explain the \"dual-credit system\": producing new energy vehicles accumulates positive points, while producing fuel vehicles accumulates negative points. There is a clear standard for the number of points accumulated for each type of vehicle, which is limited to one year. The credits of automakers = negative credits for average fuel consumption + positive credits for new energy vehicles. Negative points can be traded, offset, transferred, etc. with positive points.</p><p>According to regulations, if automakers fail to meet the credit requirements for new energy vehicles, they will be subject to penalties such as suspending the application for high-fuel-consumption products and suspending the production of high-fuel-consumption products. However, for automakers with a large number of negative average fuel consumption credits, they can use several methods to offset the negative credits: positive average fuel consumption credits carried over by the company, positive average fuel consumption credits acquired by the company, positive new energy vehicle credits generated by the company, and positive new energy vehicle credits purchased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0b4ddf19202ec2e49e3241cc8c5422\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c4f49d586e24e4fca7c35064d8a579\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Simply put, for companies that mainly produce gasoline-powered vehicles, they either have to spend money to buy credits or sell more new energy vehicles to earn credits.</p><p>Not long ago, foreign media reported that FAW-Volkswagen, Volkswagen's joint venture in China, will purchase new energy vehicle credits from Tesla at a price of approximately 3,000 yuan per credit, far higher than the price in previous years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The released research report shows that the current transaction price of new energy credits has increased from the initial 300-500 yuan/min to 2,500-3,000 yuan/min, an increase of 9 times. In an interview, Li Jinyong, executive chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the New Energy Vehicle Committee, said that this year's new energy vehicle credits will continue the situation of supply falling short of demand last year, and the credit price may reach 6,000-10,000 yuan per credit.</p><p>Another approach is to sell more new energy vehicles. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling earned 440,000 positive new energy vehicle credits in 2020, providing a certain guarantee for SAIC-GM to solve its 920,000 negative credits.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Taking the ORA Black Cat under its ORA brand as an example, in 2021, an ORA Black Cat could earn 2.08 new energy positive credits, each worth 6,000 yuan. The battery cost could be reduced by 100 yuan/kWh, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate could be reduced even more. Although the subsidies were reduced, the total cost could still be reduced by 12,400 yuan. In other words, the reduction in battery costs is sufficient to offset the adverse impact of reduced subsidies on companies' car manufacturing costs.</p><p>An ORA salesperson told Huxiu that, with the help of ORA brand sales, Great Wall Motors completed its dual-credit target last year, which means that Great Wall Motors does not need to spend extra money to purchase new energy vehicle positive credits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f96da395f189240abfe1bafe3ebad45e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Image source: Electric Vehicle Observer</p><p>For example, Changan Automobile's average fuel consumption score in 2020 was close to 620,000 negative points, while its new energy vehicle score was less than 30,000 positive points, and it still needed to offset 600,000 points. Similarly, if you buy points, each point costs 3,000 yuan, which would cost 1.8 billion yuan. If the Benben EV is produced, and each vehicle's new energy positive credit is counted as 2 points, then 300,000 units would need to be produced. An insider revealed that even if you lose money selling the car at a low price, it is still more cost-effective than buying points, which is the main reason why Changan is pushing the ultra-low price Benben E-Star.</p><p><b>At the end</b></p><p>An even more interesting phenomenon is happening.</p><p>On June 17 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the recommended national standard \"Technical Conditions for Pure Electric Passenger Vehicles\". The standard has added technical requirements for micro, low-speed pure electric passenger vehicles, which means that \"elderly mobility vehicles\" are expected to be included in formal management from a regulatory gray area.</p><p>\"I believe that including low-speed electric vehicles in standardized management actually gives standardized companies a channel to rise, while eliminating non-standardized companies. However, this has led to an awkward situation for microcar companies to some extent.\"</p><p>In an interview, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that microcar companies have to choose between high costs and survival. If they go up, the costs will be high, and if they go down, they will have no way to survive.</p><p>Next, you are likely to see a market situation like this: micro pure electric vehicles produced by domestic automakers are starting to compete with \"old man jokes\" for market share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Domestic \"Internet Celebrity\" Electric Vehicles: The Secret Behind Their Cheapness</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDomestic \"Internet Celebrity\" Electric Vehicles: The Secret Behind Their Cheapness\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author/Wang Xiaoyu</p><p>Domestically produced inexpensive electric vehicles are making a comeback.</p><p>On June 8, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released domestic automobile sales data for May. Unexpectedly, surrounded by negative news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>China did not experience a sharp drop in sales, with 33,463 new cars sold in May, a 29% increase from 25,845 in April. As expected, the \"Wuling miracle car\" Hongguang MINI EV continued to top the list with 29,706 units sold.</p><p>Although this list lists 15 new energy vehicles, the focus of public opinion is undoubtedly on the second and third place models, these two \"popular cars\" from Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a821fb9d394d8f9f5386fd832ac7bb2a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we take a closer look at this list... I believe no Chinese automaker can laugh.</p><p>Among the top 15 models in May's sales charts, eight were priced below 100,000 yuan (inclusive). In other words, the vast majority of the best-selling domestic new energy vehicles are low-end models.</p><p><b>I. Cheap electric vehicles are making a comeback</b></p><p>\"It looks the same as the old model, but the configuration is lower than the old model, and the airbags have been removed.\"</p><p>Recently, after visiting several 4S stores in the Laiguangying area of Chaoyang District, Beijing, Huxiu discovered that the Changan Benben EV, which ranks fourth on the new energy vehicle sales list, is actually a cheap electric vehicle with \"reduced features\".</p><p>According to this<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">Changan Automobile</a>The salesperson at the 4S store explained that the model they currently sell is the Benben E-star National Edition, which is a \"sibling\" of the older Changan Benben EV.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0504107bbcf8796f95f6fe2e3a95ba84\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the two models have no difference in appearance, as a model launched on January 15 this year, the price of the Changan Benben E-Star National Edition has been lowered to 29,800 yuan, which is 20,000 yuan lower than the starting price of 49,800 yuan for the base version of the old Benben EV.</p><p>The new model has been reduced in price by 20,000 yuan. Is this a way for the manufacturer to give back to consumers? The salesperson at a Changan Automobile 4S store told Huxiu that the 29,800 yuan and 39,800 yuan national versions have removed airbags. In comparison, the older Benben EV version, starting at 49,800 yuan, comes standard with driver and passenger airbags.</p><p>It's already 2021, and airbags aren't standard equipment? There are more than one suspected feature reductions in this Changan car. According to HM\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>The provided model specifications reveal that the National Edition has also removed parking radar and brake assist, even the wheels have been replaced from aluminum alloy to steel, and the air conditioning only has warm air.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764bebc0e19571bb4c3d9edd00517db5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Screenshot from Autohome</p><p>In terms of batteries, both low-end versions of the new model use lithium iron phosphate batteries. It is cheaper than the older ternary lithium battery, but the range has been reduced from 210km to 150km. \"If you want fast charging, you need to add an optional 999 yuan,\" the salesperson told Huxiu.</p><p>Even with the reduced features, the extremely low price attracted countless consumers to buy it. A salesperson present said that most of the configurations currently do not have cars, and it will take at least a month for them to be available. \"You can place your order now, that's the price anyway,\" the salesperson said casually before leaving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0987d939878f26811eb9f12d9a3ccebe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Benben isn't the only cheap electric vehicle that has no shortage of sales.</p><p>The Chery eQ, which ranked seventh on the sales list, was actually sold at Chery New Energy dealerships as the \"Chery Little Ant\"—a micro pure electric vehicle launched in 2016.</p><p>After five years of market testing, this car is still able to sell on the sales charts, not because of feature reductions, but because of discounts. For example, the mid-range version, priced at 69,800 yuan, offers cash discounts of up to 10,000 yuan, and the purchase price is less than 60,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581c7a8e469c3802e4d5d670f300357e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chery Little Ant (Photo: Huxiu)</p><p>A salesperson at Chery New Energy 4S store also said, \"There are still vehicles in stock, but that may not be the case next month. Beijing will release a batch of new energy vehicle quotas on the 26th of this month, and July will be the peak season.\"</p><p>Many distributors have offered cash subsidies of tens of thousands of yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Among the various models currently on sale under its ORA brand, the best-selling is the ORA Black Cat, with the lowest-end version priced at 69,800 yuan. The 4S store offered a cash discount of 10,500 yuan, and the purchase price was less than 60,000 yuan, the same as the Chery Ant. If you specify a configuration and there are no vehicles in stock, you will need to wait at least one month.</p><p>Low prices combined with cash discounts have become the secret to the sales of new energy vehicles for traditional automakers.</p><p><b>II. The Secret Behind Cheapness</b></p><p>In the early days of the new energy vehicle sector, subsidies were used to sell at low prices.</p><p>For example, the 2017 Chery eQ electric vehicle has a guide price range of 169,900-171,900 yuan. After enjoying national subsidies, local subsidies and manufacturer subsidies, the price is 69,800-71,800 yuan. Based on Beijing's new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2017, this car could receive a national and local subsidy of 56,000 yuan.</p><p>There are quite a few car companies that take exams in order to obtain subsidies. The most direct evidence is range. Since 2017, the new energy subsidy policy has raised the threshold for range, leading automakers to continuously launch long-range models to meet the policy threshold. Taking the 2018 subsidy policy as an example, compared with the 2017 policy, the subsidy amount for vehicles with a range of less than 300km was reduced, while the subsidy amount for vehicles with a range of more than 300km was increased accordingly.</p><p>This year's subsidy policy is even more interesting. According to the subsidy policy notice released on December 31, 2020, subsidies will be cancelled for all pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of less than 300 kilometers. Faced with domestic automakers, there are only two options: one is to increase the range to 300 kilometers and receive subsidies; Second, without subsidies, they insist on selling micro electric vehicles with low range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e77909845462fa45e894feee01125\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ORA Black Cat (Photo by Huxiu)</p><p>The first type of product will directly consider a 300km range as the product's passing grade. For example, the basic version of the ORA Black Cat has a range of 301km, the Benben E-star has a range of 301km, and the Chery Ant also has a range of 301km. In this way, while maximizing the subsidy amount, the increase in battery costs caused by excessive increases in range is avoided, ultimately minimizing product pricing.</p><p>The Wuling Hongguang MINI EV falls into the second category, requiring no subsidies and only the lowest price. The Hongguang MINI EV, starting at 28,800 yuan, has a range of only 120km. Even the high-end model priced at 43,600 yuan has a range of only 170km, which is far from the 300km subsidy threshold. As it turns out, it can sell well without government subsidies. Since its launch last July, the Hongguang MINI EV has maintained its position in the middle for nine consecutive months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>Market top seller.</p><p>The rise of the Hongguang MINI EV has prompted more automakers to explore subsidy-free \"uncharted territory\". For example, the former GAC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>According to an insider, Free Auto, founded by founder Liao Bing, is currently preparing to enter the micro pure electric vehicle market priced below 100,000 yuan, competing with best-selling models such as the Hongguang MINI EV and Changan Benben EV. In addition, Volkswagen's Sihao E10X, with a starting price of 39,900 to 75,900 yuan, offers three NEDC range versions: 150km, 200km, and 302km.</p><p>Seeing this, many people may wonder why gasoline-powered cars have never been sold so cheaply before, so why are pure electric vehicles so cheap that they are competing with \"elderly mobility scooters\" for market share? There's a secret behind the low price: a dual-points system.</p><p>In May of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the \"Annual Report on the Implementation of Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises (2021)\". The report shows that in 2020, among 138 passenger vehicle companies in China, there were 6.66 million negative fuel consumption credits and 3.28 million positive new energy vehicle credits. This means that there is still a gap of 3.38 million points in the dual-credit system.</p><p>Let me briefly explain the \"dual-credit system\": producing new energy vehicles accumulates positive points, while producing fuel vehicles accumulates negative points. There is a clear standard for the number of points accumulated for each type of vehicle, which is limited to one year. The credits of automakers = negative credits for average fuel consumption + positive credits for new energy vehicles. Negative points can be traded, offset, transferred, etc. with positive points.</p><p>According to regulations, if automakers fail to meet the credit requirements for new energy vehicles, they will be subject to penalties such as suspending the application for high-fuel-consumption products and suspending the production of high-fuel-consumption products. However, for automakers with a large number of negative average fuel consumption credits, they can use several methods to offset the negative credits: positive average fuel consumption credits carried over by the company, positive average fuel consumption credits acquired by the company, positive new energy vehicle credits generated by the company, and positive new energy vehicle credits purchased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0b4ddf19202ec2e49e3241cc8c5422\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c4f49d586e24e4fca7c35064d8a579\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Simply put, for companies that mainly produce gasoline-powered vehicles, they either have to spend money to buy credits or sell more new energy vehicles to earn credits.</p><p>Not long ago, foreign media reported that FAW-Volkswagen, Volkswagen's joint venture in China, will purchase new energy vehicle credits from Tesla at a price of approximately 3,000 yuan per credit, far higher than the price in previous years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The released research report shows that the current transaction price of new energy credits has increased from the initial 300-500 yuan/min to 2,500-3,000 yuan/min, an increase of 9 times. In an interview, Li Jinyong, executive chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the New Energy Vehicle Committee, said that this year's new energy vehicle credits will continue the situation of supply falling short of demand last year, and the credit price may reach 6,000-10,000 yuan per credit.</p><p>Another approach is to sell more new energy vehicles. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling earned 440,000 positive new energy vehicle credits in 2020, providing a certain guarantee for SAIC-GM to solve its 920,000 negative credits.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Taking the ORA Black Cat under its ORA brand as an example, in 2021, an ORA Black Cat could earn 2.08 new energy positive credits, each worth 6,000 yuan. The battery cost could be reduced by 100 yuan/kWh, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate could be reduced even more. Although the subsidies were reduced, the total cost could still be reduced by 12,400 yuan. In other words, the reduction in battery costs is sufficient to offset the adverse impact of reduced subsidies on companies' car manufacturing costs.</p><p>An ORA salesperson told Huxiu that, with the help of ORA brand sales, Great Wall Motors completed its dual-credit target last year, which means that Great Wall Motors does not need to spend extra money to purchase new energy vehicle positive credits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f96da395f189240abfe1bafe3ebad45e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Image source: Electric Vehicle Observer</p><p>For example, Changan Automobile's average fuel consumption score in 2020 was close to 620,000 negative points, while its new energy vehicle score was less than 30,000 positive points, and it still needed to offset 600,000 points. Similarly, if you buy points, each point costs 3,000 yuan, which would cost 1.8 billion yuan. If the Benben EV is produced, and each vehicle's new energy positive credit is counted as 2 points, then 300,000 units would need to be produced. An insider revealed that even if you lose money selling the car at a low price, it is still more cost-effective than buying points, which is the main reason why Changan is pushing the ultra-low price Benben E-Star.</p><p><b>At the end</b></p><p>An even more interesting phenomenon is happening.</p><p>On June 17 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the recommended national standard \"Technical Conditions for Pure Electric Passenger Vehicles\". The standard has added technical requirements for micro, low-speed pure electric passenger vehicles, which means that \"elderly mobility vehicles\" are expected to be included in formal management from a regulatory gray area.</p><p>\"I believe that including low-speed electric vehicles in standardized management actually gives standardized companies a channel to rise, while eliminating non-standardized companies. However, this has led to an awkward situation for microcar companies to some extent.\"</p><p>In an interview, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that microcar companies have to choose between high costs and survival. If they go up, the costs will be high, and if they go down, they will have no way to survive.</p><p>Next, you are likely to see a market situation like this: micro pure electric vehicles produced by domestic automakers are starting to compete with \"old man jokes\" for market share.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0973327334b37476e8dc23769e2729e","relate_stocks":{"00305":"五菱汽车","000625":"长安汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196526895","content_text":"作者／王笑渔\n国产廉价电动车，重出江湖。\n6月8日，乘联会公布了5月国内汽车销量数据。意料之外的是，被负面新闻缠绕的特斯拉中国，并没有出现销量大跌的情况，5月仍售出了33,463辆新车，较4月份的25,845辆增长了29％。而意料之中的是，“五菱神车”宏光MINI EV以29,706辆的成绩，继续占据榜首。\n这份榜单，虽然洋洋洒洒列出15款新能源汽车，但是舆论的焦点无疑都汇聚在了第二、第三名，这两款来自特斯拉的“网红车”上。\n\n如果仔细再研究一下这个榜单。相信没有哪一家中国车企能笑得起来。\n5月销量榜的TOP15的车型中，有8款车售价在10万元（含10万元）以下，也就是说——卖得好的国产新能源汽车，绝大多数都是低端车型。\n一、廉价电动车重出江湖\n“跟老款长得一样，配置比老款更低，取消了安全气囊。”\n近日，虎嗅在探访位于北京朝阳区来广营地区的几家4S店后发现，新能源汽车销量榜上位列第四名的长安奔奔EV，实则是一款“减配”而来的廉价电动汽车。\n据这家长安汽车4S店的销售介绍，他们这里目前出售的车型为奔奔E-star国民版，是老款长安奔奔EV的“同门兄弟”。\n\n两者虽然外观并无差别，但作为今年1月15日上市的车型，长安奔奔E-Star国民版的价格被拉低到了2.98万元起，比老款奔奔EV最低配版本4.98万元的起售价，还要低了2万元。\n新款降价2万卖，难道是厂家用心回馈消费者吗？这位长安汽车4S店销售告诉虎嗅，2.98万元和3.98万元的国民版取消了安全气囊。作为对比，老款奔奔EV最低售价为4.98万元的版本都标配了主/副驾驶安全气囊。\n都2021年了，安全气囊竟然不是标配？疑似减配的地方，在长安这款车上不止一处。根据HM\">汽车之家提供的车型参数可以发现，国民版还取消了驻车雷达、刹车辅助， 就连轮圈也从原来的铝合金换成了钢材，空调也只有暖风。\n截图自汽车之家\n在电池方面，新款的两个低配版本，都采用了磷酸铁锂电池。比老款的三元锂电池成本更低，但续航从原来的210km降低至150km。“想要快充的话，需要加999元可以选配”，这位销售告诉虎嗅。\n即便是减配，但超低的售价也吸引了无数消费者买单。一位在场销售表示，目前大部分配置都没有车，需要等起码1个月的时间才有车。“现在都可以定了，反正价格就这样”，临走前这位销售漫不经心的说道。\n\n不愁卖的廉价电动车不止奔奔。\n销量榜上的第七名奇瑞eQ，在奇瑞新能源销售门店售出的实则为“奇瑞小蚂蚁”——一款2016年问世的微型纯电动汽车。\n经历五年的市场洗礼，这款车依旧能卖上销量榜，靠的不是减配，而是优惠。比如6.98万元的中配版，现金优惠高达1万元，购车价不到6万元。\n奇瑞小蚂蚁（拍摄：虎嗅）\n奇瑞新能源4S店的销售还表示，“现在还有现车，但下个月就不一定了，本月26号北京将释放一批新能源指标，7月会迎来旺季。”\n拿出上万元现金补贴的经销商不在少数。长城汽车旗下的欧拉品牌，目前在售多款车型中，销量较好的为欧拉黑猫，最低配版售价为69,800元。4S店给出现金优惠为10,500元，购车价与奇瑞小蚂蚁同样不到6万元。如果指定配置，没有现车的话，需要等待至少1个月以上。\n低价+现金优惠，成了传统车企的新能源汽车销量秘诀。\n二、廉价背后的秘密\n在早期的新能源汽车领域，想要卖出低价靠的是补贴。\n举个例子，2017款奇瑞eQ电动车指导售价区间为16.99-17.19万元，在享受国家补贴、地方补贴和厂家补贴后，售价为6.98-7.18万元。以2017年当年北京的新能源汽车补贴政策计算，这款车能拿到国家、地方补贴为5.6万元。\n为补贴而应试考试的车企不在少数。最直接的证据就是续航，从2017年至今，新能源补贴政策对续航的门槛要求越来越高，致使车企不断推出高续航的车型来满足政策门槛。以2018年补贴政策为例，相比2017年的政策，对续航里程300km以下的车型补贴金额进行了下调，300km以上的车型补贴相应增加。\n今年的补贴政策就更有意思，根据2020年12月31日发布的补贴政策通知，纯电动乘用车续航里程在300公里以下的一律取消补贴。摆在国产车企面前，只有两个选择：一、把续航增加到300公里，拿到补贴；二、不要补贴，硬卖低续航的微型电动车。\n欧拉黑猫（拍摄：虎嗅）\n第一类的产品，会直接把300km续航当做产品及格线。比如欧拉黑猫基础版续航为301km，奔奔E-star续航为301km，奇瑞小蚂蚁续航同样是301km。这样一来，在确保补贴金额最大化的同时，避免增加过多续航所带来的电池成本增加，最终就实现了产品定价的最低化。\n而五菱宏光MINI EV就属于第二类，不要补贴，只求最低价。2.88万元起的宏光MINI EV，续航只有120km。即便是高配版4.36万元的车型，续航也才170km，与补贴门槛的300km相去甚远。事实证明，不要国家补贴也能畅销。去年7月上市以来，宏光MINI EV连续9个月稳居中国新能源市场销冠。\n宏光MINI EV崛起，让更多车企开始探索无补贴的“无人区”。比如，前广汽蔚来创始人廖兵创办的自由汽车，据一位知情人士向虎嗅透露，自由汽车目前准备进军10万元以下的微型纯电动市场，对标宏光MINI EV、长安奔奔EV等热销车型。还有，大众汽车旗下产品思皓E10X，起售价3.99万-7.59万元，提供NEDC工况150km、200km、302km三种续航版本。\n看到这，可能有很多人表示疑惑，原来燃油车都没有卖过这么便宜，现在纯电动汽车为何纷纷便宜到跟“老年代步车”抢市场呢？低价背后还有个秘密，是双积分制度。\n今年5月，工信息部发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理实施情况年度报告（2021）》。报告显示，2020年度，中国138家乘用车企业中，燃料消耗量负积分达666万，新能源正积分为328万分。这也就意味着，双积分仍存在338万分的缺口。\n稍微科普一下“双积分制度”：生产新能源车积正分，燃油车积负分，各类车积多少分有明确标准，以一年为限，车企的积分=平均燃油消耗量负积分+新能源汽车正积分。负积分可以与正积分之间进行交易，抵偿，转让等。\n根据规定，如果车企没有满足新能源的积分要求，将会受到暂停高油耗产品申报、暂停高油耗产品生产等处罚。不过，对于企业平均燃料消耗量负积分数量较大的车企来说，可以使用本企业结转的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业受让的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业产生的新能源汽车正积分，以及购买新能源汽车正积分这几种办法来抵偿负积分。\n\n简单来说，对于主要生产燃油车的企业，要么花钱买积分，要么多卖新能源汽车赚积分。\n不久前，有外媒报道，大众在中国的合资企业一汽-大众将从特斯拉购买新能源汽车积分，出价约为每个积分3000元人民币，远高于前几年的价格。\n兴业证券发布的研报显示，当前新能源积分交易价格已从最初的300元-500元/分，上涨至2500元-3000元/分，涨幅达9倍。全国工商联汽车经销商商会常务会长、新能源汽车专委会会长李金勇在采访中表示，今年的新能源积分将延续去年供不应求的局面，积分价格或将达到6000-10000元/分。\n另一种方式，就是多卖新能源汽车。比如上汽通用五菱2020年度，获得了44万新能源正积分，为上汽通用解决92万负积分提供了一定的保障。\n以长城汽车旗下欧拉品牌的欧拉黑猫为例，2021年，一辆欧拉黑猫可获取新能源正积分2.08分，每分价格计为6000元，电池成本可下降100元/千瓦时，磷酸铁锂成本的降幅更大，虽然补贴减少了，但总成本仍可降低1.24万元。也就是说，电池成本的降低足以抵消补贴减少对企业造车成本的不利影响。\n一位欧拉汽车的销售告诉虎嗅，在欧拉品牌的销量帮助下，去年长城汽车完成了双积分任务，也就意味着长城汽车不需要额外花钱购买新能源正积分。\n图片来源：《电动汽车观察家》\n再比如，长安汽车2020年的平均燃料消耗量负积分接近62万分，新能源正积分只有不到3万分，还需要60万分需要抵偿。同理，如果购买积分，每分3000元，需要花费18亿元。如果生产奔奔EV，每辆车的新能源正积分算作2分，则需生产30万辆即可。有内部人士透露，即便低价卖车亏钱，也比购买积分付出的性价比高，这是长安力推超低价奔奔E-Star的主要原因。\n写在最后\n一个更有趣的现象，正在发生。\n今年6月17日，工信部就《纯电动乘用车技术条件》这项推荐性国家标准征求意见。标准增加了针对微型低速纯电动乘用车的技术要求，这意味着，“老年代步车”有望从监管灰色地带纳入正规化管理。\n“我认为把低速电动车纳入规范化管理，事实上给予了规范企业一个上升的通道，同时淘汰不规范的企业，不过这一定程度上导致微型车企业面临尴尬的局面。”\n中国汽车流通协会汽车市场研究分会秘书长崔东树在采访中表示，微型车企业要在高成本与求生存之间进行选择，上去的话成本就高了，下去的话就没有活路了。\n接下来，很可能你会看到这样的市场情形——国产车企生产的微型纯电动汽车，和“老头乐”开始抢市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000625":0.9,"00305":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160926090,"gmtCreate":1623770014210,"gmtModify":1703818931269,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160926090","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149978895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地（主要位于德克萨斯州）约26万英亩（105200公顷）的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称，会谈是私下进行的，所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认，本次出售并不紧急，目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司（Occidental）合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一，而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力，他们要求减少化石燃料投资，以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放，同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增，因为一些公司试图增加持股，而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%，每桶近72美元，是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退，石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候，壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一，其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%，到2030年降低20%，到2035年降低45%，到2050年降低100%，以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而，荷兰一家法院上个月表示，壳牌的行动还不够，命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月，国际能源署（IEA）在一份报告中表示，如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标，则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示，为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求，未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示，壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油，约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油，约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示，为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金，雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周，西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源，以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔（Andrew Dittmar）表示，今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月，私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources，这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣，私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时，石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RDS.A":0.9,"RDS.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"What they are thinking","text":"What they are thinking","html":"What they are thinking"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160921628,"gmtCreate":1623769966764,"gmtModify":1703818929121,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160921628","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149978895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地（主要位于德克萨斯州）约26万英亩（105200公顷）的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称，会谈是私下进行的，所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认，本次出售并不紧急，目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司（Occidental）合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一，而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力，他们要求减少化石燃料投资，以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放，同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增，因为一些公司试图增加持股，而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%，每桶近72美元，是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退，石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候，壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一，其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%，到2030年降低20%，到2035年降低45%，到2050年降低100%，以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而，荷兰一家法院上个月表示，壳牌的行动还不够，命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月，国际能源署（IEA）在一份报告中表示，如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标，则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示，为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求，未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示，壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油，约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油，约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示，为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金，雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周，西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源，以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔（Andrew Dittmar）表示，今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月，私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources，这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣，私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时，石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RDS.A":0.9,"RDS.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188302584,"gmtCreate":1623420817948,"gmtModify":1704203238739,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"2022","listText":"2022","text":"2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188302584","repostId":"1104096254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115620978,"gmtCreate":1622988333794,"gmtModify":1704194107207,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115620978","repostId":"2141285668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134614301,"gmtCreate":1622221255703,"gmtModify":1704181868867,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Of coz","listText":"Of coz","text":"Of coz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134614301","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155283133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622216617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155283133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 23:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155283133","media":"虎嗅","summary":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电","content":"<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLosing money selling cars, making money selling software?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-28 23:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155283133","content_text":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。不止是自动驾驶功能，包括加速性能、联网服务，特斯拉都从车主身上赚到了钱。可能是英雄所见略同。软件付费的模式也被国内造车新势力所推崇。尤其是在自动辅助驾驶功能上，小鹏汽车的XPILOT、蔚来的NIO Pilot都需要用户付费数万元进行选购。付费选装本身没有争议，但是，传统车企在你没有选配的情况下几乎不会预装硬件。而包括特斯拉在内的很多智能电动汽车，会先预装大量硬件，芯片、传感器等等。购车价格里，似乎又隐形地包含了这些硬件配置的价格。比如蔚来ET7全系标配激光雷达，但软件大概率是额外付费才能用——付费模式，看来就像是毛利率极高的“收割模式”。然而，造车新势力中也有“异类”——理想汽车就旗帜鲜明的站在了“付费党”的对立面。最近理想汽车创始人李想在采访中就表示，自动驾驶都是标配，不额外向客户收取费用。“我们认为自动驾驶是智能电动车的最底层的操作系统。”卖硬件不赚钱，靠卖软件赚钱？这个移动互联网时代被喊烂的口号，如今悄然在汽车圈流行。一、销量上不去，都是空话先抛出一个观点：现阶段，在销量没有上去的时候，就开始谈新的商业模式，肯定有割韭菜的嫌疑。据财报显示，2021年第一季度，蔚来营收79.82亿元；理想汽车营收35.75亿元；小鹏汽车营收29.51亿元。其中，蔚来的汽车销售额为74.058亿元人民币，占总营收的92%；理想汽车的汽车销售额为34.6亿元，占总营收的96.7%；小鹏汽车的汽车销售额为28.10亿元，占总营收的95%。这意味着，九成的收入依旧来自于卖车。从销量上，“造车三宝”在一季度形成了蔚来、小鹏、理想的排名序列。其中，蔚来共交付20,060辆新车，同比增长422.7%，环比增长15.6%。小鹏汽车交付量达到了13,340辆，环比增长近3%，成功反超理想汽车。而理想汽车共交付了12,579辆理想ONE，虽同比增长334.4%，但环比减少了超13%。著名经济学家宋清辉认为，销量规模不足是三家新势力造车企业实现盈利的最大掣肘。国信证券发布的研报则认为，蔚来、小鹏、理想要想实现盈利，销量规模分别需要达到18万辆、6万辆、12万辆。自交付以来截至2021年4月，蔚来ES8、ES6、EC6三款车型的累计交付量约10.28万辆；一款车打天下的理想ONE累计交付量约为5.17万辆；小鹏P7和G3两款车型的累计交付量约5.87万辆，均未达到上述研报中的销量规模。所以，亏损也属于正常表现。今年一季度，理想汽车净亏损为3.6亿元，从去年四季度的季度盈利状态，跌回了亏损状态。可以看到，营销和销售渠道的投入加大，但环比销量却减少，直接就把理想拉回到盈亏线以下。同期蔚来、小鹏也仍在从亏损境地往盈利线爬。一季度，蔚来的净亏损为4.510亿元，同比下降73.3%，环比下降67.5%。而小鹏汽车的净亏损则为7.866亿元，相比上季度亏损幅度有所收窄。能不能赚钱，还有一个关键数据是毛利率。一季度，理想汽车的综合毛利率为17.3%，整车毛利率为16.9%，相比去年四季度的17.1%有所下降，原因是推出的促销活动导致平均单车收入下降。比较有趣的是小鹏和蔚来。一季度，小鹏汽车的综合毛利率11.2%，整车毛利率为10.1%，去年是-5.3%，上个季度是6.8%，上涨的原因除了材料成本降低，小鹏汽车自动驾驶XPILOT软件付费业务的销售收入计入，推动了毛利率的增长。同样的，蔚来的综合毛利率为19.5%，整车毛利率竟然高达21.2%。蔚来方面表示，毛利增长主要得益于100度电池和NIO Pilot选装率的增加。100度电池包的毛利贡献在5000元左右，NIO Pilot在8000元左右。目前，100度电池包一季度的选装率在25%。实际上，在体量相差不大、硬件采购成本没有太大出入的情况下，决定整车销售毛利率的关键因素就落在了软件订阅服务这一‘增值’部分。我们可以看到，蔚来、小鹏都在尝试“软件付费模式”的新路子，并且效果还不错。二、硬件交朋友，软件割韭菜据安信证券预计，特斯拉通过FSD付费模式，带来的累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元。预计在2030年，订阅服务收入更有望每年逾160亿美元。特斯拉“钱途无量”的收费项目分为三类：自动驾驶软件包、解锁特定功能、娱乐系统。1、FSD(Full Self-Driving)完全自动驾驶选装包。包括自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能。去年7月，其价格已经上涨至8000美元(国内64000元）。不久前，特斯拉还推出EAP增强辅助驾驶功能包，价格便宜一半。包含了绝大部分FSD的功能，但不含未来可能实现的自动驾驶功能，简单来说就是：FSD=EAP+PPT。2、OTA 付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3 车主只要付费3000美元（国内14100元），即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。还有升级续航，比如早期Model S 60可以付费升级至Model S 75同等的续航里程。但其实这是“锁电”，后期付费再给你远程解锁电量。3、高级车联网功能。特斯拉从2019 年开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费(9.9 美元/月)，车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉 OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。实际上，特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力，短期主要看销量、激活率、单价三大变量，长期看商业模式变化。销量方面，财报数据显示，特斯拉2021年第一季度共交付18.48万辆新车，超过此前华尔街普遍预测的17.3万辆，销售同比增长109%。这个数字，远超同期蔚来的2万台、小鹏的1.3万台、理想的1.26台。激活率方面，德意志银行在2020年出具的报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测，特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。虽然官方没有公布中国市场的激活率，但理想汽车创始人李想却给出了“不到2%的用户选装FSD”的评论。单价方面，特斯拉目前的FSD选购价格是最高的，达到了6.4万元。蔚来的NIO Pilot全配包选装价为3.9万元，小鹏汽车XPILOT需要2万元选配。目前，埃隆·马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式，转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。据外媒报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。无独有偶，在2020年四季度财报电话会上，李斌对蔚来自动驾驶系统按月开通、按月付费的服务订阅模式的商业前景进行了解读：“简单来讲，我认为AD as a Service(ADaaS)方式来收费会比现在的Take rate（转换率）更高，这使得一辆车在全生命周期都有收入的可能，对用户也更友好。”同样的，在今年一季报报中，小鹏汽车方面也表示，“XPILOT软件货币化将成为经常性收入，成为车辆销售收入的一部分”。据财报数据显示，通过XPILOT3.5，小鹏汽车已经获得8000万元的收入。从一次性付费转变到订阅式，才是健康的商业模式，对用户更是如此。“自动驾驶服务按需订阅比较适合，一旦自动驾驶普及、成为标配，也会推出其他的付费模式，比如流量费、车内体验费如看电影、广告费等。”威马汽车集团战略运营副总裁梅松林分析表示。举个例子，蔚来的电池租用服务，用户仅需按月支付电池租用服务费，无需在购车时一次性买断昂贵的电池包。你是愿意付7万买断一块电池，还是每月980租一个电池，想必大家自己心里都有一杆秤。而且，当你只需要在城市通勤时，就可以选择价格更便宜、续航更短的70kWh电池包，每月只要支付980元。当你有需求跑长途时，可额外再付880元/月，临时升级100kWh的电池包，不需要时再换回来。俗称按需购买。但是，相比一次买断，订阅制需要用户花更多的钱。比如像蔚来的电池包灵活升级，直接选择100kWh电池包是1480/月，如果是70kWh，短期灵活升级，是在980元的基础上，额外再付880元升级，相当于1860元/月，竟然比直接选100kWh还要贵上380元每月。小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏在财报电话会中表示：“按服务和按月来付费的话，实际上从总量来看比一次性买断价格会更高。”同时，他还表示，小鹏汽车正在考虑增加按其他形式付费的服务方式。本质上，除了付费方式变换，最重要的还是解决用户痛点。就比如特斯拉的百公里加速，花费1万多，可以从4.6秒提升4.1秒，对于大部分用户来说是毫无意义的。然而，花费2400元解锁后排座椅加热，对于北方的车主来说，这是刚需。包括像蔚来、理想汽车都会有相应的付费升级车辆相关硬件的案例，提供与否完全取决于用户。像蔚来的电池租用服务，就是解决了用户痛点。一方面，将昂贵的电池从车价中剥离，降低购车成本。另一方面，车辆不会因电池寿命减少而降低保值率。但话说回来，我们也可以看到，虽然特斯拉的体量够大，但在高额的单价面前，激活率可能并不理想。你已经花费25万购买一台国产特斯拉，还要再花6万4、占总车价25%的价格去购买一个软件包，确实需要三思而后行。三、付费模式，割得太早？软件付费的收入，至少在手机行业里还是前景可观的。此前有数据显示，苹果App Store 2018年收入约为485亿美元，2019年收入约为500亿美元，而2020年达到了640亿美元。App Store业务已成为苹果的一个重要增长领域。该部门的业绩被计入到苹果的服务部门。在截至9月底的2020财年，苹果服务部门的销售额为537亿美元。师从苹果的小米，除了卖手机以外，也在尝试更多的营收来源。比如小米以广告、游戏、金融科技、其他增值服务为主的互联网服务业务稳步发展，在一季度实现收入65.70亿元，同比增长11.4%，毛利率甚至达到了72.4%。小米在移动互联网时代的赚钱逻辑是：卖硬件不赚钱，规模上来以后，靠互联网业务赚钱。本质上，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏正式沿用这套方法，但也有车企会将小米模式在汽车上“过度尝试”。不久前，福特在美国申请了一项技术专利，将户外的广告宣传内容强制显示于汽车中控屏幕——这项技术利用内置于汽车的相机镜头，对户外广告板进行监控，再通过图像识别功能将广告内容显示于汽车屏幕上。福特表示系统甚至可以分析广告内容，提供网址链接或电话号码等资料。在国内，也有网友表示，自己购买的哈弗H6，在启动之后，中控屏幕会出现广告。这似乎有点不寒而栗，未来的汽车是否也会像小米电视、乐视电视一样，开机先看15秒的广告，付费99每月购买VIP会员才可以跳过广告？所以“反付费党”李想，则认为现在谈软件付费还为时尚早：“今天还是没有办法直接拿电脑或者是拿手机的商业模式套过来。最开始的时候大家认为手机的商业模式跟电脑是一样的，后来发现完全不同。”对比发现，以前PC时代、移动互联网时代的入口级产品都具有如下特征：1、数量：大量的用户使用基础；2、内容：大量的用户需求内容；3、技术：新兴的信息传播技术；4、时间：大量的用户使用时间；这些特征放在如今的智能电动汽车上，几乎完美融合。所以，决策者拍脑子就能得出结论：汽车，是下一个时代的流量入口，我们先占了坑再说。但是，你会发现一些有趣的现象，无论是以前电脑软件，还是现在是手机软件。从以前纯洁的工具App，逐渐变成大型内容平台，最后再变成内容丰富的广告平台。中国虽然诞生了大批的软件公司，但最后谈到盈利模式的时候，他们嘴里永远逃不开三个字：卖广告。只求求大厂们，放过汽车吧，我想好好开车。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132085906,"gmtCreate":1622045275105,"gmtModify":1704178506595,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","listText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","text":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132085906","repostId":"2138514348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138514348","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622043062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138514348?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138514348","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿，$亚马逊$与米高梅已签订最终收购协议，亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅，该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为，该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步，并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。据米高梅电影公司财报显示，其去年收入为14.96亿美元，高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","content":"<p>According to a press release issued on May 26 local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Amazon has signed a definitive acquisition agreement with MGM, agreeing to acquire MGM for $8.45 billion, slightly lower than the previously rumored $8.5-9 billion range. Some argue that the deal marks Amazon's boldest step in the entertainment industry and fuels its ambitions in streaming.</p><p>By value, this transaction is the second largest in Amazon's history, second only to Amazon's $13.7 billion acquisition in 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">Whole Foods Market</a>(Whole Foods Market) The acquisition.</p><p>In a press release, Amazon stated that it hopes to strengthen its film and television division, Amazon Studios, by leveraging MGM's legendary filmmaking history and its extensive production of more than 4,000 films and 17,000 television series.</p><p>Mike Hopkins, Amazon's senior vice president of Prime Video and Amazon Studios, said the real financial value behind the deal lies in the large number of IPs owned by MGM, which Amazon will work with the MGM team to redevelop and expand. MGM Chairman Kevin Ulrich said it was encouraging to combine MGM's legendary history with Amazon.</p><p>In his letter to shareholders this year, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos stated that Amazon now has 200 million Prime members worldwide, and that 175 million Prime members used Prime Video in the past year.</p><p>Amazon is expanding its Prime Video service with more movie and TV content to compete with Netflix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It will compete with other streaming platforms. It has spent hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing film and television distribution rights, such as the Lord of the Rings television series currently in production, with a first season budget of $465 million.</p><p>In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in live sports streaming. In March of this year, Amazon signed a 10-year agreement with the NFL (National Football League) to broadcast 15 games per season on its Prime Video platform for an average annual fee of $1.2 billion. At the same time, it also acquired the exclusive rights to broadcast the NFL's Thursday night games for the 2022-23 season.</p><p>MGM Studios is one of Hollywood's eight major film studios. Founded in 1924, it has produced well-known film and television programs such as Gone with the Wind, the James Bond series, and Tom and Jerry. His films have won 177 Academy Awards and 12 Best Picture awards to date, ranking first among major Hollywood film studios.</p><p>Last December, MGM hired investment bankers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And LionTree LLC, seeking a sale. Besides Amazon, other companies also participated in the bidding.</p><p>According to MGM Studios' financial report, its revenue last year was $1.496 billion, up from $1.18 billion in 2016.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to a press release issued on May 26 local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Amazon has signed a definitive acquisition agreement with MGM, agreeing to acquire MGM for $8.45 billion, slightly lower than the previously rumored $8.5-9 billion range. Some argue that the deal marks Amazon's boldest step in the entertainment industry and fuels its ambitions in streaming.</p><p>By value, this transaction is the second largest in Amazon's history, second only to Amazon's $13.7 billion acquisition in 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">Whole Foods Market</a>(Whole Foods Market) The acquisition.</p><p>In a press release, Amazon stated that it hopes to strengthen its film and television division, Amazon Studios, by leveraging MGM's legendary filmmaking history and its extensive production of more than 4,000 films and 17,000 television series.</p><p>Mike Hopkins, Amazon's senior vice president of Prime Video and Amazon Studios, said the real financial value behind the deal lies in the large number of IPs owned by MGM, which Amazon will work with the MGM team to redevelop and expand. MGM Chairman Kevin Ulrich said it was encouraging to combine MGM's legendary history with Amazon.</p><p>In his letter to shareholders this year, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos stated that Amazon now has 200 million Prime members worldwide, and that 175 million Prime members used Prime Video in the past year.</p><p>Amazon is expanding its Prime Video service with more movie and TV content to compete with Netflix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It will compete with other streaming platforms. It has spent hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing film and television distribution rights, such as the Lord of the Rings television series currently in production, with a first season budget of $465 million.</p><p>In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in live sports streaming. In March of this year, Amazon signed a 10-year agreement with the NFL (National Football League) to broadcast 15 games per season on its Prime Video platform for an average annual fee of $1.2 billion. At the same time, it also acquired the exclusive rights to broadcast the NFL's Thursday night games for the 2022-23 season.</p><p>MGM Studios is one of Hollywood's eight major film studios. Founded in 1924, it has produced well-known film and television programs such as Gone with the Wind, the James Bond series, and Tom and Jerry. His films have won 177 Academy Awards and 12 Best Picture awards to date, ranking first among major Hollywood film studios.</p><p>Last December, MGM hired investment bankers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And LionTree LLC, seeking a sale. Besides Amazon, other companies also participated in the bidding.</p><p>According to MGM Studios' financial report, its revenue last year was $1.496 billion, up from $1.18 billion in 2016.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138514348","content_text":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿，亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议，亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅，该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为，该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步，并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算，该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购，仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。\n亚马逊在新闻稿中表示，它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出，来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。\n亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示，该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP，亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示，将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。\n在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中，他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员，且在过去的一年里，有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。\n亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容，以便与Netflix、迪士尼等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权，例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧，该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。\n此外，亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月，亚马逊与NFL（美国职业橄榄球大联盟）签署了一项为期10年的协议，将以平均每年12亿美元的年费，每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时，它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。\n米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一，成立于1924年，曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖，12项最佳影片奖，在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。\n去年12月，米高梅聘请了投资银行摩根士丹利和LionTree LLC，寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外，还有其他企业参与竞购。\n据米高梅电影公司财报显示，其去年收入为14.96亿美元，高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","text":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","html":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198325118,"gmtCreate":1620930592034,"gmtModify":1704350680936,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198325118","repostId":"1162795644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162795644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620919056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162795644?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162795644","media":"金十数据","summary":"当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>Over the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Passively managed assets grew fivefold, generating substantial returns, while most actively managed assets suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>However, passive investment methods will soon become obsolete, and central banks are encouraging investors to adopt more active investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is beginning to formulate policy by analyzing real data rather than predicting it.<b><u>When the Federal Reserve's policies begin to become passive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>For the past decade, the central bank has determined market investment trends: monetary policy determines asset returns, and investors have become accustomed to making investment decisions based on central bank policies. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it does it very well, why bother doing market analysis? This is why investing directly in indices has yielded considerable returns.</p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, the dovish policies of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks have been heavily questioned, leading to interest rate volatility. This makes passive investing less simple than it used to be.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>This plan was intended to address the COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we have now seen its significant results. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Global manufacturing output has reached its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, inflation expectations and high interest rates led investors to sell bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on avoiding rate hike, arguing that current inflation levels are \"still a long way from\" the target, this still caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to surge from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is also reluctant to shift too quickly to a hawkish stance. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened its policies, to the point that the Fed eventually loosened liquidity. Furthermore, there is still no conclusion as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic is different from previous ones; its negative impact on the service industry (such as the catering and film industries) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Despite Powell's claim that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economic recovery is now faster than expected, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in 2022. These market expectations are reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track expected short-term interest rates. In contrast, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, outperforming the S&P 500 by 20% this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"going against\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market and thus reduces the effectiveness of passive investing. A \"Fed Put\" is a belief that the Federal Reserve is already prepared to intervene to rescue the market during a sharp market decline, and it will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's remarks took an interesting turn. Yellen claimed that interest rates must be raised to ensure that the economy does not overheat. These remarks frightened the market. U.S. tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of rising interest rates triggered a large sell-off in tech stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise sooner than the Federal Reserve has communicated.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then passively tracking stock indexes loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that future investment approaches need to be more proactive, meaning they need to study the investment potential of individual stocks rather than directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links the company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profits. When a company's earnings exceed stock price growth, active investors are likely to profit, as this typically leads to continuous earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policy over the past decade have reaped greater rewards. This kind of passive investing, though simple, is effective, while active investing \"gives up an entire forest for a single tree.\" However, the current shift in the roles of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>Over the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Passively managed assets grew fivefold, generating substantial returns, while most actively managed assets suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>However, passive investment methods will soon become obsolete, and central banks are encouraging investors to adopt more active investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is beginning to formulate policy by analyzing real data rather than predicting it.<b><u>When the Federal Reserve's policies begin to become passive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>For the past decade, the central bank has determined market investment trends: monetary policy determines asset returns, and investors have become accustomed to making investment decisions based on central bank policies. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it does it very well, why bother doing market analysis? This is why investing directly in indices has yielded considerable returns.</p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, the dovish policies of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks have been heavily questioned, leading to interest rate volatility. This makes passive investing less simple than it used to be.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>This plan was intended to address the COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we have now seen its significant results. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Global manufacturing output has reached its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, inflation expectations and high interest rates led investors to sell bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on avoiding rate hike, arguing that current inflation levels are \"still a long way from\" the target, this still caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to surge from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is also reluctant to shift too quickly to a hawkish stance. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened its policies, to the point that the Fed eventually loosened liquidity. Furthermore, there is still no conclusion as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic is different from previous ones; its negative impact on the service industry (such as the catering and film industries) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Despite Powell's claim that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economic recovery is now faster than expected, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in 2022. These market expectations are reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track expected short-term interest rates. In contrast, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, outperforming the S&P 500 by 20% this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"going against\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market and thus reduces the effectiveness of passive investing. A \"Fed Put\" is a belief that the Federal Reserve is already prepared to intervene to rescue the market during a sharp market decline, and it will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's remarks took an interesting turn. Yellen claimed that interest rates must be raised to ensure that the economy does not overheat. These remarks frightened the market. U.S. tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of rising interest rates triggered a large sell-off in tech stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise sooner than the Federal Reserve has communicated.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then passively tracking stock indexes loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that future investment approaches need to be more proactive, meaning they need to study the investment potential of individual stocks rather than directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links the company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profits. When a company's earnings exceed stock price growth, active investors are likely to profit, as this typically leads to continuous earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policy over the past decade have reaped greater rewards. This kind of passive investing, though simple, is effective, while active investing \"gives up an entire forest for a single tree.\" However, the current shift in the roles of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162795644","content_text":"作者：林莫愁\n在过去十年中，简单的投资方式反而能够获得收益。被动管理之下的资产增长了五倍，收益可观，而大部分主动管理的资产则遭受亏损。在美国，只有不到20%的主动管理型基金收益超过了被动指数型基金。\n但被动投资方法很快就要过时了，央行正鼓励投资者采取更加积极的投资行为。欧洲央行正在接受审查，而美联储开始通过分析真实数据而不是通过预测数据来制定政策。当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。\n过去十年一直是央行决定市场投资动向：货币政策决定了资产回报率，投资者习惯了根据央行政策来做出投资决策。既然央行会竭尽所能去保护股市，而且它也做得很好，那为什么还要费尽心思地去做市场分析呢？正因如此，直接跟踪指数进行投资产生了可观的收益。\n然而，自今年年初以来，美联储鸽派、欧洲央行以及其他央行的政策一直备受质疑，并带来了利率波动。这使得被动投资的方式没有之前那么简单了。\n市场存在着一个非常显而易见的问题：为什么美联储每个月还在购买12亿美元的债券？\n这个计划是为了应对当时的新冠疫情，但是我们现在已经看到了它的显著成果。美国失业率已经从15%降至6%，这仅仅比疫情前的失业率高出2%。全球制造业产量达到了十年来的最高水平，家庭储蓄水平也是疫情前的两倍甚至三倍。\n今年年初，通胀预期和高利率让投资者纷纷抛售债券。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔坚持不加息，认为目前的通胀水平离目标“还有很大距离”，但这还是导致美国10年期国债收益率在短短六周的时间内从1%飙升至1.5%。\n当然，美联储也不愿意过快转变成鹰派态度。2013年时，市场的恐慌情绪在美联储实行收紧政策后蔓延，以至于最后美联储反而放开了流动性。此外，关于服务业将会如何复苏仍未有定论。新冠疫情带来的经济衰退与往前不同，它对于服务业（如餐饮业、电影业等）的负面影响会持续更久。\n然而，市场却不满足于上述理由。尽管鲍威尔声称加息至少要等到2024年，但现在经济复苏快于预期，交易员们预期在2022年美联储就会开始加息。这种市场预期均反应在了欧洲美元以及联邦基金期货的定价上，它们追踪的都是预期短期利率。与此相对应，银行板块（利率上升的最终受益者）的涨势非常强劲，今年已经比标普500指数高出了20%。\n投资者似乎要与央行“对着干”，这削弱了央行对于股市的控制，从而减少了被动投资的有效性。“美联储看跌期权（Fed Put）”，即相信美联储早已做好准备，在市场剧烈下跌时出手救市的实施也要在美联储能够控制股市时才有效。\n市场对财政部长耶伦言论的反应发生了一个有趣的转折。耶伦声称为了保证经济不会过热，利率必须提高一些。这番言论吓坏了市场，美国的科技股对利率很敏感，利率提高的预期引发了科技股的大量抛售。这进一步印证了投资者的推断：利率上升会比美联储传达的来得更早。\n如果利率注定要提高，那么被动跟踪股指的投资便失去了它的吸引力。\n这意味着未来的投资方式需要更主动，即需要研究单只股票的投资潜力，而不是直接跟踪指数。这需要投资者对公司的财务情况有深刻认识。\n主动投资把公司的商业模式和股价联系了起来。长期来看，一家公司的股价将会取决于它营业利润的年复合增长率。当公司盈利高于股价增长时，主动投资者便有可能获利，因为这通常会导致盈利的连续增长和更强劲的回报率。先不论未来现金流的价值，投资者必须在上升的利率成本与公司潜在的盈利增长之间进行权衡。\n过去十年随央行政策而动的投资者得到了更丰厚的回报。这种被动投资虽然简单却有效，而主动投资却“为了一棵树放弃了整片森林”。然而，如今央行与投资者角色的转换将改变这种情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"Hv to observe further then","text":"Hv to observe further then","html":"Hv to observe further then"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107642413,"gmtCreate":1620487761032,"gmtModify":1704344307197,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gambate","listText":"Gambate","text":"Gambate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107642413","repostId":"2133795685","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347540248,"gmtCreate":1618504054384,"gmtModify":1704712003142,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Another EV truck?","listText":"Another EV truck?","text":"Another EV truck?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347540248","repostId":"1118045413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"Mmh... [Facepalm]","text":"Mmh... [Facepalm]","html":"Mmh... [Facepalm]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348819937,"gmtCreate":1617905835429,"gmtModify":1704704669846,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New trick","listText":"New trick","text":"New trick","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348819937","repostId":"1153796291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796291","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"‘金融是件专业的事情，投资不是拍脑袋决定的’-记录是一种维持连续思考最好的方式，我就是付鹏，一个我眼里的财经世界","home_visible":1,"media_name":"付鹏的财经世界","id":"75","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33671c46c6ed4ba5b38664f7d8985b0d"},"pubTimestamp":1617895300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153796291?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States hopes that global taxes will contribute to an effective fiscal policy cycle.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796291","media":"付鹏的财经世界","summary":"拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率，防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税，只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率，才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资","content":"<p>key link in Biden's true fiscal policy loop is to get the world to raise tax rates along with him, preventing the US from unilaterally imposing taxes, which would inevitably lead some companies and capitalists to avoid legitimate taxes globally. Only when major economies around the world raise tax rates together can the US raise taxes to complete the investment loop while avoiding the risks of capital flight and global tax avoidance, and successfully complete Biden's tax collection and infrastructure gap.</p><p>---Fu Peng<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>Chief Economist<b>”</b></p><p><b>01. The Key to an Effective Cycle of Fiscal Policy – Forming an Effective Tax Base</b></p><p><b>The ineffective cycle of fiscal policy in Western countries stems from the lack of production factors and the a vicious circle of excessive public spending pushing up government debt.</b></p><p>1) Fiscal policy is used as a means of \"investment\" to play a role, similar to the United States back then and China twenty years ago. Investment is needed to generate sufficient economic growth and broad residents' income. However, the ultimate development of globalization is a profit-seeking choice of capital. Among them, the most important factors of production for which investment is effective have shifted. The relocation of production and manufacturing industries in developed countries to emerging markets and the hollowing out of industries in developed countries have rendered the role of corresponding factors in income distribution ineffective, giving rise to the distribution gap. This distributional gap is not only manifested between different social classes within the same country, but also between developed countries and emerging markets. The ineffectiveness of factors of production and the inequality in income distribution make it difficult for social welfare expenditures and fiscal stimulus to generate income growth for a wide range of groups. Wealth is always concentrated in a few people who master effective factors of production, thus making it impossible to expand the tax base. Fiscal revenue is difficult to cover expenditures, thus stimulating further expansion of debt and giving rise to a \"bottomless pit\" growth of the fiscal deficit. Excessive fiscal debt exceeding income capacity and high welfare reinforce each other, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>2) Subsequently, Western societies chose to use fiscal policy to reduce household spending through the social welfare system in order to drive consumption, the economy, and the tax base. This also had its own bottlenecks. On the one hand, one of the systemic drawbacks of Western democratically elected governments is...<b>Social welfare expenditures have been showing a tendency to be excessive for many years.</b>However, institutional factors such as winning votes make it difficult for most politicians to be determined to cut welfare benefits; Excessive welfare spending has changed people's income expectations and increased their dependence on the government; On the other hand, as the K-shaped society continues to intensify, the lower and middle classes are unable to achieve sustained and widespread income growth, and they are constantly accumulating huge debts against the backdrop of consumption stimulus. These debts ultimately suppress the tax base for consumption, and the fiscal system behind the economy that follows the path of consumption will still fall into a vicious circle.</p><p><b>Biden's new policies have not changed the deep-seated problems in Western societies. To create an effective cycle of fiscal policy, it needs to be supplemented by many conditions such as the return of production factors and the closure of capital tax avoidance loopholes.</b>。 From an investment perspective, the large-scale infrastructure plans in Biden's new policy are innovative in terms of spending allocation compared to the past, adopting a strategy of parallel development of new energy and old infrastructure. However, due to differences in development stages and resource endowments, as well as the relocation of US manufacturing and the hollowing out of industries, the marginal benefits and synergies brought by US infrastructure plans will be far lower than those of China (of course, China itself has actually fallen into a similar impact since 2008, so the room for China's own investment stimulus in the future is almost greatly reduced).</p><p>From a financing perspective,<b>The successful implementation of a \"tax on the wealthy\" is key to the Biden administration's fiscal loop.</b>This includes raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% for individuals with incomes exceeding $400,000, increasing the income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%, and increasing the capital gains tax rate for families with annual incomes exceeding $1 million.</p><p>However, as mentioned earlier, the United States has now fallen into a situation where some factors of production are ineffective. Even though Biden's large-scale fiscal stimulus has been effectively implemented, income growth cannot be transmitted along the \"infrastructure chain\" like during the Roosevelt or Reagan eras. The general public has not shared in income growth, thus preventing the effective tax base from expanding. At the same time, due to the existence of tax havens such as Ireland and the Cayman Islands, if the tax rate on the \"wealthy tax\" increases and the international tax gap widens, the wealthy will flee in large numbers, which will narrow the tax base.</p><p><b>02. Free flow of capital and bottom-out competition in international tax rates</b></p><p><b>Given the tax-avoiding nature of capital, the Biden administration's plan to tax the wealthy could easily become a castle in the air if corporate tax rate competition among countries around the world cannot be avoided.</b>In a world where capital flows freely, tax competition between countries has intensified, leading many countries to reduce or exempt taxes on capital. The consequence is that taxes have become regressive for the top income earners in many countries. Capital has a natural tendency to avoid taxes, such as various tax credits, charitable foundations, and registering companies in tax havens, which provide companies with a large number of legal ways to avoid taxes.</p><p>In an interview, Biden mentioned that more than 50 Fortune 500 companies have not paid a single penny in taxes in the past three years. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>For example, through various tax avoidance methods such as R&D tax credits and one-time asset impairment credits, Amazon did not pay any federal income tax for two consecutive years in 2017 and 2018, and in 2019, the company only paid $162 million in federal income tax.</p><p>Data shows that the existence of capital gains tax avoidance loopholes results in the wealthiest class paying lower tax rates than low- and middle-income groups. According to calculations by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, the average effective tax rate for the 400 wealthiest households in 2018 was 23%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the average effective tax rate for households with incomes below the 50% percentile. Therefore, for tax increase policies to truly play a role in regulating income distribution, it is still necessary...<b>Close the loopholes for capital to avoid taxes; otherwise, the cost of tax increases will ultimately be borne mostly by the middle class.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e944396b8f4cd1624fcb6c128ec7f777\" tg-width=\"352\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The average effective tax rate paid by the wealthiest class continues to decline.</p><p>Data Source Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay</p><p><b>03. A key element of Biden's true fiscal closed-loop plan is the \"global minimum corporate tax rate\".</b></p><p>Therefore, a key link in Biden's true fiscal policy loop is to get the world to raise tax rates along with him, preventing the United States from unilaterally imposing taxes, which would inevitably lead some companies and capitalists to avoid legitimate taxes globally. Only when major economies around the world raise tax rates together can the United States raise taxes to complete the investment loop while avoiding the risks of capital flight and global tax avoidance, and successfully complete Biden's tax collection and infrastructure gap.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df7fbc02cbd360020eda02ec907093ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this end, the United States (mainly through Yellen's recent lobbying) is seeking to cooperate with G20 countries to set a global minimum corporate tax rate, eliminate tax incentives for companies headquartered in countries and regions that do not adopt minimum tax rates, and raise the minimum corporate tax rate in the United States to 21% and calculate it country by country in order to reduce outsourcing and overseas tax avoidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441773f88460fb5ebe1bbda09430865b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"101\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, establishing a globally unified minimum tax rate remains very difficult to implement. Developing countries still need to lower taxes and other preferential conditions to attract foreign investment and achieve economic development. Even developed countries and some small countries with lower taxes are concerned that the global minimum tax rate will harm their own economies. Irish Finance Minister Donohoe has reservations about focusing on the global minimum corporate tax rate, believing that the debate on the global minimum corporate tax rate will take at least several months.</p><p>But on this point, I think the possibility of concerted global action to pay for the US treasury is very low. The global trade war has escalated to a technology war, and now it has extended to a fiscal war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b69570bcdcef2aaaf4e9d31731d47f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comparison of corporate income tax rates in major countries around the world</p><p>Data source: OECD</p><p>In addition, due to different tax systems in different countries, for example, China mainly uses indirect taxes, with taxes mainly coming from enterprises. In the United States, personal income tax is the largest tax category, and value-added tax accounts for the largest proportion of China's tax revenue. As the only major country in the world without value-added tax, Trump once said that the United States is at a disadvantage in international trade because it does not have value-added tax. For large technology companies, whether or not to levy a \"digital tax\" remains a major focus of negotiations between EU countries and the United States. Tax incentives provided by local governments in China are offset by the lowest global tax rates, and China has no advantage over the West in terms of business environment. This is also a way to guide American companies back to China through fiscal policy.</p><p><b>The global minimum tax rate will be an important part of the Biden administration's tax increase plan, and it will not be easy for the United States to expect global tax revenue to pay for its investment debt.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States hopes that global taxes will contribute to an effective fiscal policy cycle.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States hopes that global taxes will contribute to an effective fiscal policy cycle.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/75\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/33671c46c6ed4ba5b38664f7d8985b0d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">付鹏的财经世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-08 23:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>key link in Biden's true fiscal policy loop is to get the world to raise tax rates along with him, preventing the US from unilaterally imposing taxes, which would inevitably lead some companies and capitalists to avoid legitimate taxes globally. Only when major economies around the world raise tax rates together can the US raise taxes to complete the investment loop while avoiding the risks of capital flight and global tax avoidance, and successfully complete Biden's tax collection and infrastructure gap.</p><p>---Fu Peng<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>Chief Economist<b>”</b></p><p><b>01. The Key to an Effective Cycle of Fiscal Policy – Forming an Effective Tax Base</b></p><p><b>The ineffective cycle of fiscal policy in Western countries stems from the lack of production factors and the a vicious circle of excessive public spending pushing up government debt.</b></p><p>1) Fiscal policy is used as a means of \"investment\" to play a role, similar to the United States back then and China twenty years ago. Investment is needed to generate sufficient economic growth and broad residents' income. However, the ultimate development of globalization is a profit-seeking choice of capital. Among them, the most important factors of production for which investment is effective have shifted. The relocation of production and manufacturing industries in developed countries to emerging markets and the hollowing out of industries in developed countries have rendered the role of corresponding factors in income distribution ineffective, giving rise to the distribution gap. This distributional gap is not only manifested between different social classes within the same country, but also between developed countries and emerging markets. The ineffectiveness of factors of production and the inequality in income distribution make it difficult for social welfare expenditures and fiscal stimulus to generate income growth for a wide range of groups. Wealth is always concentrated in a few people who master effective factors of production, thus making it impossible to expand the tax base. Fiscal revenue is difficult to cover expenditures, thus stimulating further expansion of debt and giving rise to a \"bottomless pit\" growth of the fiscal deficit. Excessive fiscal debt exceeding income capacity and high welfare reinforce each other, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>2) Subsequently, Western societies chose to use fiscal policy to reduce household spending through the social welfare system in order to drive consumption, the economy, and the tax base. This also had its own bottlenecks. On the one hand, one of the systemic drawbacks of Western democratically elected governments is...<b>Social welfare expenditures have been showing a tendency to be excessive for many years.</b>However, institutional factors such as winning votes make it difficult for most politicians to be determined to cut welfare benefits; Excessive welfare spending has changed people's income expectations and increased their dependence on the government; On the other hand, as the K-shaped society continues to intensify, the lower and middle classes are unable to achieve sustained and widespread income growth, and they are constantly accumulating huge debts against the backdrop of consumption stimulus. These debts ultimately suppress the tax base for consumption, and the fiscal system behind the economy that follows the path of consumption will still fall into a vicious circle.</p><p><b>Biden's new policies have not changed the deep-seated problems in Western societies. To create an effective cycle of fiscal policy, it needs to be supplemented by many conditions such as the return of production factors and the closure of capital tax avoidance loopholes.</b>。 From an investment perspective, the large-scale infrastructure plans in Biden's new policy are innovative in terms of spending allocation compared to the past, adopting a strategy of parallel development of new energy and old infrastructure. However, due to differences in development stages and resource endowments, as well as the relocation of US manufacturing and the hollowing out of industries, the marginal benefits and synergies brought by US infrastructure plans will be far lower than those of China (of course, China itself has actually fallen into a similar impact since 2008, so the room for China's own investment stimulus in the future is almost greatly reduced).</p><p>From a financing perspective,<b>The successful implementation of a \"tax on the wealthy\" is key to the Biden administration's fiscal loop.</b>This includes raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% for individuals with incomes exceeding $400,000, increasing the income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%, and increasing the capital gains tax rate for families with annual incomes exceeding $1 million.</p><p>However, as mentioned earlier, the United States has now fallen into a situation where some factors of production are ineffective. Even though Biden's large-scale fiscal stimulus has been effectively implemented, income growth cannot be transmitted along the \"infrastructure chain\" like during the Roosevelt or Reagan eras. The general public has not shared in income growth, thus preventing the effective tax base from expanding. At the same time, due to the existence of tax havens such as Ireland and the Cayman Islands, if the tax rate on the \"wealthy tax\" increases and the international tax gap widens, the wealthy will flee in large numbers, which will narrow the tax base.</p><p><b>02. Free flow of capital and bottom-out competition in international tax rates</b></p><p><b>Given the tax-avoiding nature of capital, the Biden administration's plan to tax the wealthy could easily become a castle in the air if corporate tax rate competition among countries around the world cannot be avoided.</b>In a world where capital flows freely, tax competition between countries has intensified, leading many countries to reduce or exempt taxes on capital. The consequence is that taxes have become regressive for the top income earners in many countries. Capital has a natural tendency to avoid taxes, such as various tax credits, charitable foundations, and registering companies in tax havens, which provide companies with a large number of legal ways to avoid taxes.</p><p>In an interview, Biden mentioned that more than 50 Fortune 500 companies have not paid a single penny in taxes in the past three years. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>For example, through various tax avoidance methods such as R&D tax credits and one-time asset impairment credits, Amazon did not pay any federal income tax for two consecutive years in 2017 and 2018, and in 2019, the company only paid $162 million in federal income tax.</p><p>Data shows that the existence of capital gains tax avoidance loopholes results in the wealthiest class paying lower tax rates than low- and middle-income groups. According to calculations by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, the average effective tax rate for the 400 wealthiest households in 2018 was 23%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the average effective tax rate for households with incomes below the 50% percentile. Therefore, for tax increase policies to truly play a role in regulating income distribution, it is still necessary...<b>Close the loopholes for capital to avoid taxes; otherwise, the cost of tax increases will ultimately be borne mostly by the middle class.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e944396b8f4cd1624fcb6c128ec7f777\" tg-width=\"352\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The average effective tax rate paid by the wealthiest class continues to decline.</p><p>Data Source Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay</p><p><b>03. A key element of Biden's true fiscal closed-loop plan is the \"global minimum corporate tax rate\".</b></p><p>Therefore, a key link in Biden's true fiscal policy loop is to get the world to raise tax rates along with him, preventing the United States from unilaterally imposing taxes, which would inevitably lead some companies and capitalists to avoid legitimate taxes globally. Only when major economies around the world raise tax rates together can the United States raise taxes to complete the investment loop while avoiding the risks of capital flight and global tax avoidance, and successfully complete Biden's tax collection and infrastructure gap.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df7fbc02cbd360020eda02ec907093ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this end, the United States (mainly through Yellen's recent lobbying) is seeking to cooperate with G20 countries to set a global minimum corporate tax rate, eliminate tax incentives for companies headquartered in countries and regions that do not adopt minimum tax rates, and raise the minimum corporate tax rate in the United States to 21% and calculate it country by country in order to reduce outsourcing and overseas tax avoidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441773f88460fb5ebe1bbda09430865b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"101\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, establishing a globally unified minimum tax rate remains very difficult to implement. Developing countries still need to lower taxes and other preferential conditions to attract foreign investment and achieve economic development. Even developed countries and some small countries with lower taxes are concerned that the global minimum tax rate will harm their own economies. Irish Finance Minister Donohoe has reservations about focusing on the global minimum corporate tax rate, believing that the debate on the global minimum corporate tax rate will take at least several months.</p><p>But on this point, I think the possibility of concerted global action to pay for the US treasury is very low. The global trade war has escalated to a technology war, and now it has extended to a fiscal war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b69570bcdcef2aaaf4e9d31731d47f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comparison of corporate income tax rates in major countries around the world</p><p>Data source: OECD</p><p>In addition, due to different tax systems in different countries, for example, China mainly uses indirect taxes, with taxes mainly coming from enterprises. In the United States, personal income tax is the largest tax category, and value-added tax accounts for the largest proportion of China's tax revenue. As the only major country in the world without value-added tax, Trump once said that the United States is at a disadvantage in international trade because it does not have value-added tax. For large technology companies, whether or not to levy a \"digital tax\" remains a major focus of negotiations between EU countries and the United States. Tax incentives provided by local governments in China are offset by the lowest global tax rates, and China has no advantage over the West in terms of business environment. This is also a way to guide American companies back to China through fiscal policy.</p><p><b>The global minimum tax rate will be an important part of the Biden administration's tax increase plan, and it will not be easy for the United States to expect global tax revenue to pay for its investment debt.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796291","content_text":"拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率，防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税，只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率，才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险，顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口；\n---付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家”\n01、财政政策的有效循环的关键——形成有效税基\n西方国家出现财政政策的无效循环源自于生产要素的缺失和公共支出过度推升政府债务的恶性循环；\n1）财政政策用于“投资”手段发挥作用，类似当年的美国和二十年前的中国一样，需要投资能够生成足够的经济增长和广泛性的居民收入，但是最终全球化的发展是资本逐利的选择，这其中投资有效的最重要的生产要素发生了转移，发达国家的生产制造业向新兴市场迁移、发达国家产业空心化，使得相应要素在收入分配中的角色无效化，催生了分配差距。这种分配差距也不仅表现在同一国家的不同阶层之间，也表现在发达国家和新兴市场之间。要素无效化和收入分配差距，使得社会福利支出和财政刺激难以形成广泛群体的收入增长，财富始终向少数掌握有效生产要素的人聚集，从而无法扩大税基，财政收入难以覆盖支出，从而刺激债务进一步扩张，催生了财政赤字“无底洞”式的增长，而超出收入能力的过度财政负债和高福利相互强化，形成了恶性循环。\n 2)  之后西方社会选择用财政政策通过社会福利体系减少居民部门支出以此来达到消费带动经济拉动税基的方式，也是有自身的瓶颈的，一方面西方民选政府的体制弊病之一是，社会福利支出常年呈现过度化倾向，而争取选票等制度性因素使得大部分政治家难有决心压缩福利；过度福利支出改变了民众的收入预期，加大了对政府的依赖；另一方面随着K型社会的不断加剧，中底层居民无法获得持续的广泛的收入增长，并且不断的在消费刺激的背景下形成了巨大的债务，这些债务最终抑制了消费的税基，最终是的走消费这条路的经济背后的财政仍就会陷入恶性循环；\n拜登新政未改西方社会沉疴，想要形成财政政策的有效循环还需辅以生产要素回流、弥补资本避税漏洞等诸多条件。从投资角度来看，拜登新政中有关大规模基建的计划，在支出的投向上与以往相比具有新意，采用了新能源和旧基建并行的策略，但由于发展阶段和资源禀赋的不同，以及美国制造业外移和产业的空心化，美国的基建计划带来的边际收益和协同效应将远低于中国（当然目前中国自身在2008年之后其实也陷入到了类似的影响中，所以后续中国自身的投资刺激的空间也几乎大打折扣）。\n从融资角度来看，能否成功征收“富人税”是拜登政府财政闭环中的关键，包括将公司税率从21%提高到28%，收入超过40万美元的个人，所得税率从37%提高到39.6%，年收入超过100万美元的家庭，提高其资本利得税税率等。\n但如前所述，当前美国已经陷入了部分生产要素无效化格局，即便拜登的大规模财政刺激得到了有效的执行，但收入增长并不能被像罗斯福或里根时代一样沿着“基建链”传导，广大人群并未分享到收入增长，从而有效税基无法扩大。同时，由于类似爱尔兰、开曼群岛等避税天堂的存在，如果“富人税”的税率提高，国际间税差扩大，那么富人便会大量出逃，反而使得税基收窄。\n02、资本的自由流动和国际税率的逐底竞争\n由于资本的避税天性，如果无法避免全球各国的企业税率竞赛，那么拜登政府的征收富人税的计划最终容易变成空中楼阁。在资本自由流动的世界中，国家间的税收竞争开始增强，这让许多国家减免了对资本的征税。后果就是对于很多国家的顶层收入者而言，税收已经变为累退的。资本具有避税的天性，比如各种税收抵免、慈善基金，将企业注册在避税天堂等等，为企业提供了大量的合法避税途径。\n拜登接受采访时提到财富500强企业中有五十多家公司过去三年里一分钱的税都没有交过。以亚马逊为例，通过研发税收抵免、资产减值一次性抵免等各种避税手段，亚马逊在2017和2018年连续两年没有缴纳任何的联邦所得税，而在2019年该公司也只缴纳了1.62亿美元的联邦所得税。\n从数据来看，资本收益避税漏洞的存在，使得最富裕阶级的缴纳税率反而低于中低收入人群。根据Emmanuel Saez和Gabriel Zucman测算 ，2018年400个最富有家庭的平均有效缴税税率为23%，相比于收入水平位于50%分位数以下的家庭的平均有效缴税税率，低了1.2个百分点。因此，要真正使得加税政策能够发挥调节收入分配的作用，还需要堵上资本避税的漏洞，否则最终加税的成本将大部分由中产阶级来承担。\n\n最富裕阶级平均实际缴税税率不断降低\n数据来源：Emmanuel Saez,Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay\n03、拜登真正的财政闭环计划里关键的一环“全球最低企业税率”\n所以拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率，防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税，只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率，才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险，顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口；\n\n为此美国（最近主要是耶伦到处的游说）正在寻求与G20国家合作，制定全球公司最低税率，并对公司总部设在未采取最低税率国家和地区的企业取消税收优惠，此外把美国公司最低税率提高到21%，并逐个国家进行计算，以减少外包和海外避税行为。\n\n但建立起全球统一的最低税率推行起来仍然存在很大难度，发展中国家仍然需要降低税收等一些优惠条件来吸引外资实现经济发展，而即便发达国家，部分税收较低的小国担忧全球最低税率会损害本国的经济。爱尔兰财长Donohoe对关注全球最低企业税率持保留意见，认为有关全球最低企业税率的辩论至少需要几个月的时间。\n但就这一点我就觉得全球一致行动来给美国财政买单这一环的可能性就非常低，全球贸易战打到技术战，现在延续到了财政战；\n\n全球主要国家企业所得税率比较\n数据来源：OECD\n另外由于各国税收体制不同，例如中国是以间接税为主，税收主要来自于企业，而美国个人所得税为第一大税种，中国税收中占比最大的增值税，而美国作为世界上唯一没有增值税的大国，特朗普曾称美国因为没有增值税而在国际贸易中处于劣势。对于大型科技企业而言，“数字税”征收与否仍是欧盟国家和美国之间谈判的一大焦点。对于中国各个地方政府给的税收优惠会被全球最低税率给抵消掉，而营商环境方面中国对比西方没有优势，这也是用财政政策引导美国企业回流；\n全球最低税率将是拜登政府增税计划中重要的一部分，美国希望全球税收一起来为美国投资债务买单，不是件容易的事情。。。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132085906,"gmtCreate":1622045275105,"gmtModify":1704178506595,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","listText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","text":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132085906","repostId":"2138514348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138514348","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622043062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138514348?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138514348","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿，$亚马逊$与米高梅已签订最终收购协议，亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅，该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为，该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步，并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。据米高梅电影公司财报显示，其去年收入为14.96亿美元，高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","content":"<p>According to a press release issued on May 26 local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Amazon has signed a definitive acquisition agreement with MGM, agreeing to acquire MGM for $8.45 billion, slightly lower than the previously rumored $8.5-9 billion range. Some argue that the deal marks Amazon's boldest step in the entertainment industry and fuels its ambitions in streaming.</p><p>By value, this transaction is the second largest in Amazon's history, second only to Amazon's $13.7 billion acquisition in 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">Whole Foods Market</a>(Whole Foods Market) The acquisition.</p><p>In a press release, Amazon stated that it hopes to strengthen its film and television division, Amazon Studios, by leveraging MGM's legendary filmmaking history and its extensive production of more than 4,000 films and 17,000 television series.</p><p>Mike Hopkins, Amazon's senior vice president of Prime Video and Amazon Studios, said the real financial value behind the deal lies in the large number of IPs owned by MGM, which Amazon will work with the MGM team to redevelop and expand. MGM Chairman Kevin Ulrich said it was encouraging to combine MGM's legendary history with Amazon.</p><p>In his letter to shareholders this year, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos stated that Amazon now has 200 million Prime members worldwide, and that 175 million Prime members used Prime Video in the past year.</p><p>Amazon is expanding its Prime Video service with more movie and TV content to compete with Netflix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It will compete with other streaming platforms. It has spent hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing film and television distribution rights, such as the Lord of the Rings television series currently in production, with a first season budget of $465 million.</p><p>In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in live sports streaming. In March of this year, Amazon signed a 10-year agreement with the NFL (National Football League) to broadcast 15 games per season on its Prime Video platform for an average annual fee of $1.2 billion. At the same time, it also acquired the exclusive rights to broadcast the NFL's Thursday night games for the 2022-23 season.</p><p>MGM Studios is one of Hollywood's eight major film studios. Founded in 1924, it has produced well-known film and television programs such as Gone with the Wind, the James Bond series, and Tom and Jerry. His films have won 177 Academy Awards and 12 Best Picture awards to date, ranking first among major Hollywood film studios.</p><p>Last December, MGM hired investment bankers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And LionTree LLC, seeking a sale. Besides Amazon, other companies also participated in the bidding.</p><p>According to MGM Studios' financial report, its revenue last year was $1.496 billion, up from $1.18 billion in 2016.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA major acquisition of streaming media has been finalized! Amazon buys MGM for $8.45 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to a press release issued on May 26 local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Amazon has signed a definitive acquisition agreement with MGM, agreeing to acquire MGM for $8.45 billion, slightly lower than the previously rumored $8.5-9 billion range. Some argue that the deal marks Amazon's boldest step in the entertainment industry and fuels its ambitions in streaming.</p><p>By value, this transaction is the second largest in Amazon's history, second only to Amazon's $13.7 billion acquisition in 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">Whole Foods Market</a>(Whole Foods Market) The acquisition.</p><p>In a press release, Amazon stated that it hopes to strengthen its film and television division, Amazon Studios, by leveraging MGM's legendary filmmaking history and its extensive production of more than 4,000 films and 17,000 television series.</p><p>Mike Hopkins, Amazon's senior vice president of Prime Video and Amazon Studios, said the real financial value behind the deal lies in the large number of IPs owned by MGM, which Amazon will work with the MGM team to redevelop and expand. MGM Chairman Kevin Ulrich said it was encouraging to combine MGM's legendary history with Amazon.</p><p>In his letter to shareholders this year, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos stated that Amazon now has 200 million Prime members worldwide, and that 175 million Prime members used Prime Video in the past year.</p><p>Amazon is expanding its Prime Video service with more movie and TV content to compete with Netflix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It will compete with other streaming platforms. It has spent hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing film and television distribution rights, such as the Lord of the Rings television series currently in production, with a first season budget of $465 million.</p><p>In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in live sports streaming. In March of this year, Amazon signed a 10-year agreement with the NFL (National Football League) to broadcast 15 games per season on its Prime Video platform for an average annual fee of $1.2 billion. At the same time, it also acquired the exclusive rights to broadcast the NFL's Thursday night games for the 2022-23 season.</p><p>MGM Studios is one of Hollywood's eight major film studios. Founded in 1924, it has produced well-known film and television programs such as Gone with the Wind, the James Bond series, and Tom and Jerry. His films have won 177 Academy Awards and 12 Best Picture awards to date, ranking first among major Hollywood film studios.</p><p>Last December, MGM hired investment bankers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And LionTree LLC, seeking a sale. Besides Amazon, other companies also participated in the bidding.</p><p>According to MGM Studios' financial report, its revenue last year was $1.496 billion, up from $1.18 billion in 2016.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138514348","content_text":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿，亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议，亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅，该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为，该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步，并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算，该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购，仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。\n亚马逊在新闻稿中表示，它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出，来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。\n亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示，该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP，亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示，将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。\n在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中，他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员，且在过去的一年里，有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。\n亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容，以便与Netflix、迪士尼等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权，例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧，该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。\n此外，亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月，亚马逊与NFL（美国职业橄榄球大联盟）签署了一项为期10年的协议，将以平均每年12亿美元的年费，每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时，它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。\n米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一，成立于1924年，曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖，12项最佳影片奖，在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。\n去年12月，米高梅聘请了投资银行摩根士丹利和LionTree LLC，寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外，还有其他企业参与竞购。\n据米高梅电影公司财报显示，其去年收入为14.96亿美元，高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","text":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","html":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881301741,"gmtCreate":1631288544883,"gmtModify":1676530522085,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Who knows&nbsp;","listText":"Who knows&nbsp;","text":"Who knows","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881301741","repostId":"1181368305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181368305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631267491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181368305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's love is not unconditional!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181368305","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内，美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点（截至2021年9月3日收盘），涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面，S&P 500的Shiller","content":"<p><div>In less than three quarters, the S&P 500 index rose from a low of 2,191.86 in March 2020 to 4,545.85 points (as of the close of trading on September 3, 2021), an increase of more than 100%. In terms of valuation, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E recently reached 39 times, surpassing pre-2008 financial crisis levels and approaching the peak valuation of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The price-to-book ratio reached 4.8, which is close to the level of 2000. The price-to-sales ratio reached 3.3, the highest since data became available, more than double the peak before the 2008 crisis.</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's love is not unconditional!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's love is not unconditional!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国际金融报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>In less than three quarters, the S&P 500 index rose from a low of 2,191.86 in March 2020 to 4,545.85 points (as of the close of trading on September 3, 2021), an increase of more than 100%. In terms of valuation, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E recently reached 39 times, surpassing pre-2008 financial crisis levels and approaching the peak valuation of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The price-to-book ratio reached 4.8, which is close to the level of 2000. The price-to-sales ratio reached 3.3, the highest since data became available, more than double the peak before the 2008 crisis.</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内，美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点（截至2021年9月3日收盘），涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面，S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍，超过2008年金融危机之前水平，接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8，也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3，是有数据以来的最高，超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致：几乎直线倾斜向上，稍有偏离，很快被修复。只有一个区别，这轮上涨斜率更高（如图一：S&P 500指数月K线）。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势，背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先，也是最重要、最根本的，是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始，美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”（Greenspan put）就是指当股市下跌时，格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权（也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险），于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后，美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模，但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头，最后不仅没有缩小，反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松（QE2和QE3），于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初，鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱，发现新任主席爱心不足，立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后，鲍威尔紧急转弯，恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧，于是放心地继续斜线上涨，直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后，美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中，美联储使出浑身解数，不仅迅速将政策利率调到零，而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买，从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底，美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元，几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券，还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效，市场信心恢复，抄底资金涌入，S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往，让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然，这届美联储可能已经别无选择，必须对股市百般呵护，因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标（股市总市值/GDP）已经超过200%，这一方面说明股市估值高企，另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动，从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值，最近已经超过37万亿美元，还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%，蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏，股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里，公共退休基金（即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池）在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里，还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛，股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害，还可能导致社会混乱（想象如果公共退休金亏空违约）。\n对美联储来说，可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市，就是呵护经济。\n当然，美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新，美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样，直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离，它给市场搭了台，唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样，决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的，在笔者看来，是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易（Carry trade）的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空（借入）日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低，雷亚尔利率高，所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值，套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然，如果雷亚尔大幅贬值，该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易：如果贷款顺利付息还本，那么银行赚到息差，否则将大亏。再比如，保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易：如果受保人无事，那么保险公司赚到保险费，如果出事（例如重疾、财产损失等），则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易：如果发行者顺利还本付息，那么获得利息收入，而如果发生信用事件，则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出，套息交易有个共同特征：跟某个巨大的风险（高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等）共存，在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生，但是他希望岁月静好，至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说，套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在，而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货：如果即期VIX（S&P 500隐含波动率）保持稳定，那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”（roll yield），因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端；如果同时即期VIX下行，做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌，VIX大幅上升，那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的，也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权：如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨，那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏，如果市场稳定或上涨，可以增强持股收益。当然，如果股票或指数大跌，那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌，那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底（buy the dips）策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱，但是一旦市场发生大跌，那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响，其标题就是“大家都在干这个”（Everyone’s Doing It）。对很多资金管理者来说，参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报，如果不参与，业绩不如人，则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”，股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面，因为波动率空头压过多头（如股票空头），股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面，套息策略都是助涨的，因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来，就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的？因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性，比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好，在其他不变情况下，股价也就越高。事实上，套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降，诱导机构寻找收益（searching for yield），而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然，上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来，S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌，包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升，股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心，市场又重振旗鼓，再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态，说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者，完全不用更高级的工具，只需要做S&P 500指数的多头（比如买指数ETF）。在岁月静好期间，多头有比较稳定的收益入账，但一旦发生恐慌，可能“一觉回到解放前”，要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨，享受史上最高水平的估值，并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值，持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能：股市波动受到抑制，套息盘被验证能赚钱，吸引更多套息资金入场，同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者：美联储。\n但问题是，美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗？\n美联储的爱，不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提，通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%，已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说，就业情况已经不弱，而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%，远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂（transitory）的，很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落，从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性，而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色，不能看到未来。更重要的是，目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落，美联储应该加息，从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀，并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%，而且因为房屋库存水平较低（尤其是总价低的入门级房屋），同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位（也是宽松货币政策使然），房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍，推高房租水平，因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱，离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致，而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上，甚至不断升高，如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨，那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀，但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看，美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买（也就是所谓的taper），同时等待时机停止资产购买，最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘，这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘，其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险，给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率，斜率越陡，S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态，风险和收益必须匹配，所以股市崩盘风险越大，S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高，这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往，恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来，大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘：2018年一季度，2018年四季度，以及2020年一季度（见图一的三个圈圈）。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大，所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了，我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩，或者是其他冲击。一旦发生，就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环，最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中，所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时，他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓，“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升，而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压，比如风险平价基金（Risk-parity funds）需要降低股票仓位，但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者，但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时，人人都需要流动性，但没有人供应，所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发，导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心，也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费（美国GDP的大头），并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说，美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘，股票基本面会和高企的估值一起，跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场，是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说，目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲：S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期，S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里，美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后，股市套息交易会不会再来一轮？我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后，因为总需求迅速萎缩，通胀问题会迅速消失，失业问题会重返，这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤，下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗？当然可以，美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策，套息交易很可能还会复活。当然，未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高，现在难以判断。反例是日本股市，虽有央行加持，但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342957269,"gmtCreate":1618163215751,"gmtModify":1704707041451,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be safe","listText":"Be safe","text":"Be safe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342957269","repostId":"1129676573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"Ya... Take cautious approach","text":"Ya... Take cautious approach","html":"Ya... Take cautious approach"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357443724,"gmtCreate":1617291814168,"gmtModify":1704698502488,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Support","listText":"Support","text":"Support","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357443724","repostId":"1185961704","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185961704","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617291608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185961704?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-01 23:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Sister Wood: China's \"Disruptive Innovation Platform\" is Rising","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185961704","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日，方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中，大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。她强调，在中国，不要只关注单个公司的崛起，更重要的是“颠覆性","content":"<p>Recently, Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment Management, discussed the development prospects of \"disruptive innovative technologies\" in China during a live broadcast with Dr. Zhen Wei, Head of Research for Asia Pacific at MSCI.</p><p>She emphasized,<b>In China, we should not only focus on the rise of individual companies, but more importantly, on the emergence of \"disruptive innovation platforms,\" which are the fundamental forces for achieving exponential growth, including DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain.</b></p><p>She gave an example,<b>In DNA sequencing, Chinese companies are catching up, and China's collaborative robots have also developed to the forefront.</b>。 She said, \"We're seeing more robots and higher productivity, which is good for the entire economy.\"</p><p>She also said,<b>China's artificial intelligence and chip technology have been strengthened through cooperation between the government and the private sector.</b>。</p><p>In addition, from an environmental and technological perspective,<b>She was \"very impressed\" by China's emphasis on electric vehicles.</b>\"China allows<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The entry demonstrates the government's determination to make electric vehicles widespread in China.</p><p>Cathie Wood focuses on innovation and technology investment. Over the past three years, her fund products have generated strong returns far exceeding those of the broader market and similar funds, earning her the reputation of \"tech stock goddess\" and \"bull market queen\".</p><p>Cathie Wood's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) achieved an astonishing 152% return in 2020, with assets under management once reaching $20 billion. The fund bet about 10% of its assets on Tesla, and the stock price soared from $84 at the beginning of last year to $749 at the end of last year, an increase of more than 900%.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sister Wood: China's \"Disruptive Innovation Platform\" is Rising</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSister Wood: China's \"Disruptive Innovation Platform\" is Rising\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-01 23:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment Management, discussed the development prospects of \"disruptive innovative technologies\" in China during a live broadcast with Dr. Zhen Wei, Head of Research for Asia Pacific at MSCI.</p><p>She emphasized,<b>In China, we should not only focus on the rise of individual companies, but more importantly, on the emergence of \"disruptive innovation platforms,\" which are the fundamental forces for achieving exponential growth, including DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain.</b></p><p>She gave an example,<b>In DNA sequencing, Chinese companies are catching up, and China's collaborative robots have also developed to the forefront.</b>。 She said, \"We're seeing more robots and higher productivity, which is good for the entire economy.\"</p><p>She also said,<b>China's artificial intelligence and chip technology have been strengthened through cooperation between the government and the private sector.</b>。</p><p>In addition, from an environmental and technological perspective,<b>She was \"very impressed\" by China's emphasis on electric vehicles.</b>\"China allows<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The entry demonstrates the government's determination to make electric vehicles widespread in China.</p><p>Cathie Wood focuses on innovation and technology investment. Over the past three years, her fund products have generated strong returns far exceeding those of the broader market and similar funds, earning her the reputation of \"tech stock goddess\" and \"bull market queen\".</p><p>Cathie Wood's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) achieved an astonishing 152% return in 2020, with assets under management once reaching $20 billion. The fund bet about 10% of its assets on Tesla, and the stock price soared from $84 at the beginning of last year to $749 at the end of last year, an increase of more than 900%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3625946\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5b714196a7f48e3a1873938c3772315","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3625946","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1185961704","content_text":"近日，方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中，大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。她强调，在中国，不要只关注单个公司的崛起，更重要的是“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起，这是实现指数式增长的根本力量，包括DNA测序、机器人技术、储能、人工智能和区块链。她举例说，在DNA测序方面，中国企业正在后来居上，中国的协作机器人也已经发展至前沿水平。她说：“我们看到更多的机器人和更高的生产率，这对整个经济都有好处。”她还说，在政府和私营部门的合作之下，中国的人工智能和芯片技术得到了加强。另外，从环境和技术角度来看，中国对电动汽车的重视给她留下了“非常深刻的印象”，“中国允许特斯拉进入，表明了政府决心让电动汽车在中国遍地开花。”Cathie Wood专注于创新与科技投资，旗下基金产品在过去三年中创造了远超大盘与同类基金的强劲回报，被誉为“科技女股神”“牛市女皇”。Cathie Wood旗下旗舰产品方舟创新ETF（ARKK）在2020年实现了惊人的152%的回报率，资管规模一度达到200亿美元。该基金用约10%的资产押注特斯拉，该股股价从去年年初的84美元飙升至去年年底的749美元，增幅超过900%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352989314,"gmtCreate":1616857146438,"gmtModify":1704799624308,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy when others are fearful","listText":"Buy when others are fearful","text":"Buy when others are fearful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352989314","repostId":"2122472374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"Yep... U still believe in AMD","text":"Yep... U still believe in AMD","html":"Yep... U still believe in AMD"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174752907,"gmtCreate":1627144259409,"gmtModify":1703484779261,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"QE lo","listText":"QE lo","text":"QE lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174752907","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153809933","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627105483,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153809933?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 13:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153809933","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27 and 28, and although stock market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. Besides the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, the more important question is whether the Federal Reserve has already provided details on tapering its policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made it clear during his testimony to Congress that he still believes inflationary pressures are largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an imminent policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>However, ING strategists mentioned that at the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference at the end of August, Fed officials will begin preparing to taper quantitative easing, further refining it at the FOMC meeting in September before making a formal announcement in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as quickly as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many companies urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to tighten, such as tapering QE. However, most people still expect the Federal Reserve to not announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will \"put the details of the tapering on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest that the Federal Reserve's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines became widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would begin hiring workers in large numbers. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has been generally unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment has forced the Federal Reserve to consider tapering some of the easing stimulus policies it has already implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that while wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. Compared to the same period last year, the consumer price index rose 5.4% in June, meaning that inflation-adjusted incomes fell by more than 2%. Even the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of Core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE), which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May compared to the same period last year.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised its 2021 inflation forecast to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be too optimistic. Inflation is likely to continue rising for the rest of the year. However, the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said that the Federal Reserve had made too many mistakes in the past and that he was willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a moderate period of time before tightening.</p><p>However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting show increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Federal Reserve currently buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still take several years.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about discussions on tapering bond purchases that began in June. Discussions around this issue are likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, as the Federal Reserve's current signals continue to favor earlier policy normalization. His remarks about Chairman Powell may suggest that while discussions about reducing quantitative easing have begun, there is still plenty of time before they need to reach a conclusion on the actions they will take.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's major July meeting is next week! What key points should we focus on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27 and 28, and although stock market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. Besides the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, the more important question is whether the Federal Reserve has already provided details on tapering its policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made it clear during his testimony to Congress that he still believes inflationary pressures are largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an imminent policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>However, ING strategists mentioned that at the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference at the end of August, Fed officials will begin preparing to taper quantitative easing, further refining it at the FOMC meeting in September before making a formal announcement in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as quickly as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many companies urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to tighten, such as tapering QE. However, most people still expect the Federal Reserve to not announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will \"put the details of the tapering on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest that the Federal Reserve's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines became widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would begin hiring workers in large numbers. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has been generally unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment has forced the Federal Reserve to consider tapering some of the easing stimulus policies it has already implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that while wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. Compared to the same period last year, the consumer price index rose 5.4% in June, meaning that inflation-adjusted incomes fell by more than 2%. Even the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of Core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE), which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May compared to the same period last year.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised its 2021 inflation forecast to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be too optimistic. Inflation is likely to continue rising for the rest of the year. However, the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said that the Federal Reserve had made too many mistakes in the past and that he was willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a moderate period of time before tightening.</p><p>However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting show increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Federal Reserve currently buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still take several years.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about discussions on tapering bond purchases that began in June. Discussions around this issue are likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, as the Federal Reserve's current signals continue to favor earlier policy normalization. His remarks about Chairman Powell may suggest that while discussions about reducing quantitative easing have begun, there is still plenty of time before they need to reach a conclusion on the actions they will take.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a01b74d12bd250d548a4cdbf0d9091","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2153809933","content_text":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。除了市场急需知道鲍威尔目前的态度，更重要的是美联储是否已经有了缩减政策细节。\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近在国会作证时明确表示，他仍然认为通胀压力在很大程度上是暂时的，没有任何迫切需要发出政策即将转变的信号。毕竟，就业水平仍比疫情开始前低600多万，而最新的新冠疫情增加了另一层不确定性，可以用来为不采取行动辩护。\n但是ING策略师谈到即将在8月底举行的杰克逊霍尔美联储会议(Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference)上，美联储官员将开始为缩减量化宽松做准备，并在9月份的FOMC会议上进一步细化，然后在12月份正式宣布。\n经济正在增长，尽管可能没有今年早些时候一些人预期的那么快。此外许多企业迫切需要工人，但仍有数百万人失业。最近几周，疫苗接种率停滞不前，感染病例数量上升。尽管如此美联储正面临着收紧压力，如缩减QE。但大部分人还是预计美联储不会在下周会议上宣布任何新举措，但焦点是鲍威尔是否会把缩减细节“摆上桌面”来讨论。\n劳动力市场迹象暗示美联储的宽松远没有结束。经济学家和市场观察人士曾希望，到4月份疫苗广泛普及、许多经济限制开始解除的时候，雇主将开始大批雇佣工人。然而，现实却远没有这么乐观。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的最新数据显示非农增速在最近数月总体不是很稳定。\n另外一方面，当下通胀环境又让美联储不得不考虑缩减一些已经实施的宽松刺激政策。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的三个月移动平均数据显示，尽管6月份的工资比去年同期高出3.2%，但通货膨胀率却上升得更高。与去年同期相比，6月份消费者价格指数增长了5.4%，这意味着经通胀调整后的收入下降了2%以上。即便是美联储青睐的剔除食品和能源价格波动的核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)指标，5月份也较上年同期上涨了3.4%。\n事实上，一个月前，美联储将2021年的通胀预期从3月份的2.2%上调至3%，但即便如此也可能过于乐观。在今年余下的时间里，通胀可能会持续上升。不过，美联储也未必会不急于介入。在去年8月的一次讲话中，鲍威尔表示，美联储在过去犯了太多的错误，他愿意在收紧之前，让价格在一段适度的时间内超过央行2%的目标。\n不过，美联储最近一次会议的纪要显示，人们对讨论缩减债券购买规模的兴趣有所增加。美联储目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券，但短期加息可能仍需数年时间。\nING策略师认为尽管美联储预计在7月份的会议上不会改变政策，但市场可能会听到更多有关6月份开始的缩减购债讨论的消息。在8月份的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议上，围绕这一问题的讨论可能会升温，因为美联储目前发出的信号仍倾向于更早的政策正常化。其谈到鲍威尔主席可能会暗示，虽然有关缩减量化宽松的讨论已经开始，但在他们需要就他们将采取的行动得出结论之前，还有很多时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160926090,"gmtCreate":1623770014210,"gmtModify":1703818931269,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160926090","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149978895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShell is considering selling a $10 billion stake in the largest oil field in the United States. What card is it playing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Will oil giant Shell consider selling up to $10 billion worth of oilfield shares affect oil prices? According to sources familiar with the matter, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its stake in the largest oil field in the United States and considering selling it.<b>This is because Shell wants to focus on its most profitable oil and gas industry and increase its low-carbon investments.</b></p><p>This sale may involve some or all of Shell's approximately 260,000 acres (105,200 hectares) of land in the Permian Basin, primarily located in Texas.<b>Sources who declined to be named said the talks were conducted privately, and the shares held could be worth as much as $10 billion.</b></p><p>However, CNBC has separately confirmed that the sale is not urgent and that negotiations are currently underway with the buyer or multiple potential buyers. Some of the land involved is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Part of a joint venture of the company (Occidental). Shell declined to comment.</p><p>Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, is under pressure from investors to reduce investment in fossil fuels to stop global climate change caused by carbon emissions. Shell, BP Plc and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions by increasing investment in renewable energy, while divesting some oil and gas stakes.</p><p>Mergers and acquisitions in large U.S. shale oil fields surged last year as some companies sought to increase their stakes while others looked to take advantage of rising oil prices to sell their shares.<b>U.S. oil futures have risen 49% this year to nearly $72 a barrel, more than double their 2020 low. This is because oil demand has recovered as the pandemic subsides.</b></p><p>Earlier this year, Shell launched one of the oil industry’s most ambitious climate strategies, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by at least 6% by 2023, 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 100% by 2050, based on 2016 levels. However, a Dutch court said last month that Shell's actions were not enough, ordering it to reduce its emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030.</p><p>Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that consumers should immediately stop investing in new fossil fuel projects if they want to meet UN-backed targets aimed at limiting global warming.</p><p><b>Oil giants, including Shell, say the world will need a significant amount of new oil and gas investment in the coming years to meet demand for automotive fuels and chemicals.</b></p><p>According to its website, Shell's Permian oil and gas production averaged 193,000 barrels of oil per day in 2020, accounting for about 6% of its total production that year.</p><p>The Permian period produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 40% of total U.S. production.</p><p>Industry experts say that in order to divest unwanted assets and raise cash,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>And other companies hope to make more deals this year. Last week, Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian assets to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate</a>Energy to reduce its debt.</p><p>Andrew Dittmar, a mergers and acquisitions analyst at energy research firm Enverus, said most Permian deals this year have sold for between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre.</p><p>The increase in trading activity has pushed up transaction prices. In April, privately held DoublePoint Energy was sold to Pioneer Natural Resources for approximately $40,000 per acre, the highest price since producers seized the Permian region in 2014-2016.</p><p>Several smaller shale companies, including KKR's independent energy company, have merged this year.<b>Due to a lack of interest in oil company IPOs, private equity owners hope that oil companies can increase oil production while waiting for investors to show interest in new shares.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份，会不会影响石油价格呢？\n\n据知情人士透露，石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份，并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地（主要位于德克萨斯州）约26万英亩（105200公顷）的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称，会谈是私下进行的，所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认，本次出售并不紧急，目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司（Occidental）合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一，而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力，他们要求减少化石燃料投资，以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放，同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增，因为一些公司试图增加持股，而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%，每桶近72美元，是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退，石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候，壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一，其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%，到2030年降低20%，到2035年降低45%，到2050年降低100%，以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而，荷兰一家法院上个月表示，壳牌的行动还不够，命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月，国际能源署（IEA）在一份报告中表示，如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标，则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示，为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求，未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示，壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油，约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油，约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示，为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金，雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周，西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源，以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔（Andrew Dittmar）表示，今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月，私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources，这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣，私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时，石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RDS.A":0.9,"RDS.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"What they are thinking","text":"What they are thinking","html":"What they are thinking"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134614301,"gmtCreate":1622221255703,"gmtModify":1704181868867,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Of coz","listText":"Of coz","text":"Of coz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134614301","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155283133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622216617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155283133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 23:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155283133","media":"虎嗅","summary":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电","content":"<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLosing money selling cars, making money selling software?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-28 23:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155283133","content_text":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。不止是自动驾驶功能，包括加速性能、联网服务，特斯拉都从车主身上赚到了钱。可能是英雄所见略同。软件付费的模式也被国内造车新势力所推崇。尤其是在自动辅助驾驶功能上，小鹏汽车的XPILOT、蔚来的NIO Pilot都需要用户付费数万元进行选购。付费选装本身没有争议，但是，传统车企在你没有选配的情况下几乎不会预装硬件。而包括特斯拉在内的很多智能电动汽车，会先预装大量硬件，芯片、传感器等等。购车价格里，似乎又隐形地包含了这些硬件配置的价格。比如蔚来ET7全系标配激光雷达，但软件大概率是额外付费才能用——付费模式，看来就像是毛利率极高的“收割模式”。然而，造车新势力中也有“异类”——理想汽车就旗帜鲜明的站在了“付费党”的对立面。最近理想汽车创始人李想在采访中就表示，自动驾驶都是标配，不额外向客户收取费用。“我们认为自动驾驶是智能电动车的最底层的操作系统。”卖硬件不赚钱，靠卖软件赚钱？这个移动互联网时代被喊烂的口号，如今悄然在汽车圈流行。一、销量上不去，都是空话先抛出一个观点：现阶段，在销量没有上去的时候，就开始谈新的商业模式，肯定有割韭菜的嫌疑。据财报显示，2021年第一季度，蔚来营收79.82亿元；理想汽车营收35.75亿元；小鹏汽车营收29.51亿元。其中，蔚来的汽车销售额为74.058亿元人民币，占总营收的92%；理想汽车的汽车销售额为34.6亿元，占总营收的96.7%；小鹏汽车的汽车销售额为28.10亿元，占总营收的95%。这意味着，九成的收入依旧来自于卖车。从销量上，“造车三宝”在一季度形成了蔚来、小鹏、理想的排名序列。其中，蔚来共交付20,060辆新车，同比增长422.7%，环比增长15.6%。小鹏汽车交付量达到了13,340辆，环比增长近3%，成功反超理想汽车。而理想汽车共交付了12,579辆理想ONE，虽同比增长334.4%，但环比减少了超13%。著名经济学家宋清辉认为，销量规模不足是三家新势力造车企业实现盈利的最大掣肘。国信证券发布的研报则认为，蔚来、小鹏、理想要想实现盈利，销量规模分别需要达到18万辆、6万辆、12万辆。自交付以来截至2021年4月，蔚来ES8、ES6、EC6三款车型的累计交付量约10.28万辆；一款车打天下的理想ONE累计交付量约为5.17万辆；小鹏P7和G3两款车型的累计交付量约5.87万辆，均未达到上述研报中的销量规模。所以，亏损也属于正常表现。今年一季度，理想汽车净亏损为3.6亿元，从去年四季度的季度盈利状态，跌回了亏损状态。可以看到，营销和销售渠道的投入加大，但环比销量却减少，直接就把理想拉回到盈亏线以下。同期蔚来、小鹏也仍在从亏损境地往盈利线爬。一季度，蔚来的净亏损为4.510亿元，同比下降73.3%，环比下降67.5%。而小鹏汽车的净亏损则为7.866亿元，相比上季度亏损幅度有所收窄。能不能赚钱，还有一个关键数据是毛利率。一季度，理想汽车的综合毛利率为17.3%，整车毛利率为16.9%，相比去年四季度的17.1%有所下降，原因是推出的促销活动导致平均单车收入下降。比较有趣的是小鹏和蔚来。一季度，小鹏汽车的综合毛利率11.2%，整车毛利率为10.1%，去年是-5.3%，上个季度是6.8%，上涨的原因除了材料成本降低，小鹏汽车自动驾驶XPILOT软件付费业务的销售收入计入，推动了毛利率的增长。同样的，蔚来的综合毛利率为19.5%，整车毛利率竟然高达21.2%。蔚来方面表示，毛利增长主要得益于100度电池和NIO Pilot选装率的增加。100度电池包的毛利贡献在5000元左右，NIO Pilot在8000元左右。目前，100度电池包一季度的选装率在25%。实际上，在体量相差不大、硬件采购成本没有太大出入的情况下，决定整车销售毛利率的关键因素就落在了软件订阅服务这一‘增值’部分。我们可以看到，蔚来、小鹏都在尝试“软件付费模式”的新路子，并且效果还不错。二、硬件交朋友，软件割韭菜据安信证券预计，特斯拉通过FSD付费模式，带来的累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元。预计在2030年，订阅服务收入更有望每年逾160亿美元。特斯拉“钱途无量”的收费项目分为三类：自动驾驶软件包、解锁特定功能、娱乐系统。1、FSD(Full Self-Driving)完全自动驾驶选装包。包括自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能。去年7月，其价格已经上涨至8000美元(国内64000元）。不久前，特斯拉还推出EAP增强辅助驾驶功能包，价格便宜一半。包含了绝大部分FSD的功能，但不含未来可能实现的自动驾驶功能，简单来说就是：FSD=EAP+PPT。2、OTA 付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3 车主只要付费3000美元（国内14100元），即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。还有升级续航，比如早期Model S 60可以付费升级至Model S 75同等的续航里程。但其实这是“锁电”，后期付费再给你远程解锁电量。3、高级车联网功能。特斯拉从2019 年开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费(9.9 美元/月)，车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉 OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。实际上，特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力，短期主要看销量、激活率、单价三大变量，长期看商业模式变化。销量方面，财报数据显示，特斯拉2021年第一季度共交付18.48万辆新车，超过此前华尔街普遍预测的17.3万辆，销售同比增长109%。这个数字，远超同期蔚来的2万台、小鹏的1.3万台、理想的1.26台。激活率方面，德意志银行在2020年出具的报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测，特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。虽然官方没有公布中国市场的激活率，但理想汽车创始人李想却给出了“不到2%的用户选装FSD”的评论。单价方面，特斯拉目前的FSD选购价格是最高的，达到了6.4万元。蔚来的NIO Pilot全配包选装价为3.9万元，小鹏汽车XPILOT需要2万元选配。目前，埃隆·马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式，转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。据外媒报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。无独有偶，在2020年四季度财报电话会上，李斌对蔚来自动驾驶系统按月开通、按月付费的服务订阅模式的商业前景进行了解读：“简单来讲，我认为AD as a Service(ADaaS)方式来收费会比现在的Take rate（转换率）更高，这使得一辆车在全生命周期都有收入的可能，对用户也更友好。”同样的，在今年一季报报中，小鹏汽车方面也表示，“XPILOT软件货币化将成为经常性收入，成为车辆销售收入的一部分”。据财报数据显示，通过XPILOT3.5，小鹏汽车已经获得8000万元的收入。从一次性付费转变到订阅式，才是健康的商业模式，对用户更是如此。“自动驾驶服务按需订阅比较适合，一旦自动驾驶普及、成为标配，也会推出其他的付费模式，比如流量费、车内体验费如看电影、广告费等。”威马汽车集团战略运营副总裁梅松林分析表示。举个例子，蔚来的电池租用服务，用户仅需按月支付电池租用服务费，无需在购车时一次性买断昂贵的电池包。你是愿意付7万买断一块电池，还是每月980租一个电池，想必大家自己心里都有一杆秤。而且，当你只需要在城市通勤时，就可以选择价格更便宜、续航更短的70kWh电池包，每月只要支付980元。当你有需求跑长途时，可额外再付880元/月，临时升级100kWh的电池包，不需要时再换回来。俗称按需购买。但是，相比一次买断，订阅制需要用户花更多的钱。比如像蔚来的电池包灵活升级，直接选择100kWh电池包是1480/月，如果是70kWh，短期灵活升级，是在980元的基础上，额外再付880元升级，相当于1860元/月，竟然比直接选100kWh还要贵上380元每月。小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏在财报电话会中表示：“按服务和按月来付费的话，实际上从总量来看比一次性买断价格会更高。”同时，他还表示，小鹏汽车正在考虑增加按其他形式付费的服务方式。本质上，除了付费方式变换，最重要的还是解决用户痛点。就比如特斯拉的百公里加速，花费1万多，可以从4.6秒提升4.1秒，对于大部分用户来说是毫无意义的。然而，花费2400元解锁后排座椅加热，对于北方的车主来说，这是刚需。包括像蔚来、理想汽车都会有相应的付费升级车辆相关硬件的案例，提供与否完全取决于用户。像蔚来的电池租用服务，就是解决了用户痛点。一方面，将昂贵的电池从车价中剥离，降低购车成本。另一方面，车辆不会因电池寿命减少而降低保值率。但话说回来，我们也可以看到，虽然特斯拉的体量够大，但在高额的单价面前，激活率可能并不理想。你已经花费25万购买一台国产特斯拉，还要再花6万4、占总车价25%的价格去购买一个软件包，确实需要三思而后行。三、付费模式，割得太早？软件付费的收入，至少在手机行业里还是前景可观的。此前有数据显示，苹果App Store 2018年收入约为485亿美元，2019年收入约为500亿美元，而2020年达到了640亿美元。App Store业务已成为苹果的一个重要增长领域。该部门的业绩被计入到苹果的服务部门。在截至9月底的2020财年，苹果服务部门的销售额为537亿美元。师从苹果的小米，除了卖手机以外，也在尝试更多的营收来源。比如小米以广告、游戏、金融科技、其他增值服务为主的互联网服务业务稳步发展，在一季度实现收入65.70亿元，同比增长11.4%，毛利率甚至达到了72.4%。小米在移动互联网时代的赚钱逻辑是：卖硬件不赚钱，规模上来以后，靠互联网业务赚钱。本质上，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏正式沿用这套方法，但也有车企会将小米模式在汽车上“过度尝试”。不久前，福特在美国申请了一项技术专利，将户外的广告宣传内容强制显示于汽车中控屏幕——这项技术利用内置于汽车的相机镜头，对户外广告板进行监控，再通过图像识别功能将广告内容显示于汽车屏幕上。福特表示系统甚至可以分析广告内容，提供网址链接或电话号码等资料。在国内，也有网友表示，自己购买的哈弗H6，在启动之后，中控屏幕会出现广告。这似乎有点不寒而栗，未来的汽车是否也会像小米电视、乐视电视一样，开机先看15秒的广告，付费99每月购买VIP会员才可以跳过广告？所以“反付费党”李想，则认为现在谈软件付费还为时尚早：“今天还是没有办法直接拿电脑或者是拿手机的商业模式套过来。最开始的时候大家认为手机的商业模式跟电脑是一样的，后来发现完全不同。”对比发现，以前PC时代、移动互联网时代的入口级产品都具有如下特征：1、数量：大量的用户使用基础；2、内容：大量的用户需求内容；3、技术：新兴的信息传播技术；4、时间：大量的用户使用时间；这些特征放在如今的智能电动汽车上，几乎完美融合。所以，决策者拍脑子就能得出结论：汽车，是下一个时代的流量入口，我们先占了坑再说。但是，你会发现一些有趣的现象，无论是以前电脑软件，还是现在是手机软件。从以前纯洁的工具App，逐渐变成大型内容平台，最后再变成内容丰富的广告平台。中国虽然诞生了大批的软件公司，但最后谈到盈利模式的时候，他们嘴里永远逃不开三个字：卖广告。只求求大厂们，放过汽车吧，我想好好开车。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198325118,"gmtCreate":1620930592034,"gmtModify":1704350680936,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198325118","repostId":"1162795644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162795644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620919056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162795644?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162795644","media":"金十数据","summary":"当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>Over the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Passively managed assets grew fivefold, generating substantial returns, while most actively managed assets suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>However, passive investment methods will soon become obsolete, and central banks are encouraging investors to adopt more active investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is beginning to formulate policy by analyzing real data rather than predicting it.<b><u>When the Federal Reserve's policies begin to become passive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>For the past decade, the central bank has determined market investment trends: monetary policy determines asset returns, and investors have become accustomed to making investment decisions based on central bank policies. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it does it very well, why bother doing market analysis? This is why investing directly in indices has yielded considerable returns.</p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, the dovish policies of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks have been heavily questioned, leading to interest rate volatility. This makes passive investing less simple than it used to be.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>This plan was intended to address the COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we have now seen its significant results. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Global manufacturing output has reached its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, inflation expectations and high interest rates led investors to sell bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on avoiding rate hike, arguing that current inflation levels are \"still a long way from\" the target, this still caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to surge from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is also reluctant to shift too quickly to a hawkish stance. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened its policies, to the point that the Fed eventually loosened liquidity. Furthermore, there is still no conclusion as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic is different from previous ones; its negative impact on the service industry (such as the catering and film industries) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Despite Powell's claim that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economic recovery is now faster than expected, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in 2022. These market expectations are reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track expected short-term interest rates. In contrast, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, outperforming the S&P 500 by 20% this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"going against\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market and thus reduces the effectiveness of passive investing. A \"Fed Put\" is a belief that the Federal Reserve is already prepared to intervene to rescue the market during a sharp market decline, and it will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's remarks took an interesting turn. Yellen claimed that interest rates must be raised to ensure that the economy does not overheat. These remarks frightened the market. U.S. tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of rising interest rates triggered a large sell-off in tech stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise sooner than the Federal Reserve has communicated.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then passively tracking stock indexes loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that future investment approaches need to be more proactive, meaning they need to study the investment potential of individual stocks rather than directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links the company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profits. When a company's earnings exceed stock price growth, active investors are likely to profit, as this typically leads to continuous earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policy over the past decade have reaped greater rewards. This kind of passive investing, though simple, is effective, while active investing \"gives up an entire forest for a single tree.\" However, the current shift in the roles of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve is no longer a \"control freak,\" and active investment strategies are becoming more profitable.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>Over the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Passively managed assets grew fivefold, generating substantial returns, while most actively managed assets suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>However, passive investment methods will soon become obsolete, and central banks are encouraging investors to adopt more active investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is beginning to formulate policy by analyzing real data rather than predicting it.<b><u>When the Federal Reserve's policies begin to become passive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>For the past decade, the central bank has determined market investment trends: monetary policy determines asset returns, and investors have become accustomed to making investment decisions based on central bank policies. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it does it very well, why bother doing market analysis? This is why investing directly in indices has yielded considerable returns.</p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, the dovish policies of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks have been heavily questioned, leading to interest rate volatility. This makes passive investing less simple than it used to be.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>This plan was intended to address the COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we have now seen its significant results. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Global manufacturing output has reached its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, inflation expectations and high interest rates led investors to sell bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on avoiding rate hike, arguing that current inflation levels are \"still a long way from\" the target, this still caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to surge from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is also reluctant to shift too quickly to a hawkish stance. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened its policies, to the point that the Fed eventually loosened liquidity. Furthermore, there is still no conclusion as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic is different from previous ones; its negative impact on the service industry (such as the catering and film industries) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Despite Powell's claim that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economic recovery is now faster than expected, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in 2022. These market expectations are reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track expected short-term interest rates. In contrast, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, outperforming the S&P 500 by 20% this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"going against\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market and thus reduces the effectiveness of passive investing. A \"Fed Put\" is a belief that the Federal Reserve is already prepared to intervene to rescue the market during a sharp market decline, and it will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's remarks took an interesting turn. Yellen claimed that interest rates must be raised to ensure that the economy does not overheat. These remarks frightened the market. U.S. tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of rising interest rates triggered a large sell-off in tech stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise sooner than the Federal Reserve has communicated.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then passively tracking stock indexes loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that future investment approaches need to be more proactive, meaning they need to study the investment potential of individual stocks rather than directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links the company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profits. When a company's earnings exceed stock price growth, active investors are likely to profit, as this typically leads to continuous earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policy over the past decade have reaped greater rewards. This kind of passive investing, though simple, is effective, while active investing \"gives up an entire forest for a single tree.\" However, the current shift in the roles of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162795644","content_text":"作者：林莫愁\n在过去十年中，简单的投资方式反而能够获得收益。被动管理之下的资产增长了五倍，收益可观，而大部分主动管理的资产则遭受亏损。在美国，只有不到20%的主动管理型基金收益超过了被动指数型基金。\n但被动投资方法很快就要过时了，央行正鼓励投资者采取更加积极的投资行为。欧洲央行正在接受审查，而美联储开始通过分析真实数据而不是通过预测数据来制定政策。当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。\n过去十年一直是央行决定市场投资动向：货币政策决定了资产回报率，投资者习惯了根据央行政策来做出投资决策。既然央行会竭尽所能去保护股市，而且它也做得很好，那为什么还要费尽心思地去做市场分析呢？正因如此，直接跟踪指数进行投资产生了可观的收益。\n然而，自今年年初以来，美联储鸽派、欧洲央行以及其他央行的政策一直备受质疑，并带来了利率波动。这使得被动投资的方式没有之前那么简单了。\n市场存在着一个非常显而易见的问题：为什么美联储每个月还在购买12亿美元的债券？\n这个计划是为了应对当时的新冠疫情，但是我们现在已经看到了它的显著成果。美国失业率已经从15%降至6%，这仅仅比疫情前的失业率高出2%。全球制造业产量达到了十年来的最高水平，家庭储蓄水平也是疫情前的两倍甚至三倍。\n今年年初，通胀预期和高利率让投资者纷纷抛售债券。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔坚持不加息，认为目前的通胀水平离目标“还有很大距离”，但这还是导致美国10年期国债收益率在短短六周的时间内从1%飙升至1.5%。\n当然，美联储也不愿意过快转变成鹰派态度。2013年时，市场的恐慌情绪在美联储实行收紧政策后蔓延，以至于最后美联储反而放开了流动性。此外，关于服务业将会如何复苏仍未有定论。新冠疫情带来的经济衰退与往前不同，它对于服务业（如餐饮业、电影业等）的负面影响会持续更久。\n然而，市场却不满足于上述理由。尽管鲍威尔声称加息至少要等到2024年，但现在经济复苏快于预期，交易员们预期在2022年美联储就会开始加息。这种市场预期均反应在了欧洲美元以及联邦基金期货的定价上，它们追踪的都是预期短期利率。与此相对应，银行板块（利率上升的最终受益者）的涨势非常强劲，今年已经比标普500指数高出了20%。\n投资者似乎要与央行“对着干”，这削弱了央行对于股市的控制，从而减少了被动投资的有效性。“美联储看跌期权（Fed Put）”，即相信美联储早已做好准备，在市场剧烈下跌时出手救市的实施也要在美联储能够控制股市时才有效。\n市场对财政部长耶伦言论的反应发生了一个有趣的转折。耶伦声称为了保证经济不会过热，利率必须提高一些。这番言论吓坏了市场，美国的科技股对利率很敏感，利率提高的预期引发了科技股的大量抛售。这进一步印证了投资者的推断：利率上升会比美联储传达的来得更早。\n如果利率注定要提高，那么被动跟踪股指的投资便失去了它的吸引力。\n这意味着未来的投资方式需要更主动，即需要研究单只股票的投资潜力，而不是直接跟踪指数。这需要投资者对公司的财务情况有深刻认识。\n主动投资把公司的商业模式和股价联系了起来。长期来看，一家公司的股价将会取决于它营业利润的年复合增长率。当公司盈利高于股价增长时，主动投资者便有可能获利，因为这通常会导致盈利的连续增长和更强劲的回报率。先不论未来现金流的价值，投资者必须在上升的利率成本与公司潜在的盈利增长之间进行权衡。\n过去十年随央行政策而动的投资者得到了更丰厚的回报。这种被动投资虽然简单却有效，而主动投资却“为了一棵树放弃了整片森林”。然而，如今央行与投资者角色的转换将改变这种情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"content":"Hv to observe further then","text":"Hv to observe further then","html":"Hv to observe further then"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}