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AB_Iphone
2021-09-10
Who knows
美联储的爱,不是无条件的!
AB_Iphone
2021-09-09
Really?
【异动】黑莓涨超6%,公司在美国提交两项专利申请
AB_Iphone
2021-08-28
Weee
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AB_Iphone
2021-08-20
Baba go
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AB_Iphone
2021-08-19
Oh no
美联储要“收水”,美股真的会跌吗?跌多少?
AB_Iphone
2021-07-25
QE lo
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AB_Iphone
2021-07-15
Good
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AB_Iphone
2021-07-14
Go to the moon
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AB_Iphone
2021-07-02
Yeah… take a rest
提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市
AB_Iphone
2021-06-29
Serious?runnnnnn
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AB_Iphone
2021-06-21
How much
国产“网红”电动汽车,廉价背后的秘密
AB_Iphone
2021-06-15
Mmh… interesting
壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?
AB_Iphone
2021-06-15
Mmh… interesting
壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?
AB_Iphone
2021-06-11
2022
15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?
AB_Iphone
2021-06-06
?
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AB_Iphone
2021-05-29
Of coz
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AB_Iphone
2021-05-27
It’s mgm studio not mgm resort
流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅
AB_Iphone
2021-05-14
Really?
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AB_Iphone
2021-05-08
Gambate
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AB_Iphone
2021-04-16
Another EV truck?
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Go to Tiger App to see more news
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ><strong>国际金融报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致:几乎直线倾斜向上,稍有偏离,很快被修复。只有一个区别,这轮上涨斜率更高(如图一:S&P 500指数月K线)。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势,背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先,也是最重要、最根本的,是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始,美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”(Greenspan put)就是指当股市下跌时,格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权(也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险),于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后,美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模,但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头,最后不仅没有缩小,反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松(QE2和QE3),于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初,鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱,发现新任主席爱心不足,立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后,鲍威尔紧急转弯,恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧,于是放心地继续斜线上涨,直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后,美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中,美联储使出浑身解数,不仅迅速将政策利率调到零,而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买,从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底,美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元,几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券,还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效,市场信心恢复,抄底资金涌入,S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往,让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然,这届美联储可能已经别无选择,必须对股市百般呵护,因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标(股市总市值/GDP)已经超过200%,这一方面说明股市估值高企,另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动,从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值,最近已经超过37万亿美元,还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%,蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏,股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里,公共退休基金(即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池)在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里,还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛,股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害,还可能导致社会混乱(想象如果公共退休金亏空违约)。\n对美联储来说,可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市,就是呵护经济。\n当然,美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新,美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样,直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离,它给市场搭了台,唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样,决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的,在笔者看来,是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易(Carry trade)的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空(借入)日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低,雷亚尔利率高,所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值,套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然,如果雷亚尔大幅贬值,该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易:如果贷款顺利付息还本,那么银行赚到息差,否则将大亏。再比如,保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易:如果受保人无事,那么保险公司赚到保险费,如果出事(例如重疾、财产损失等),则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易:如果发行者顺利还本付息,那么获得利息收入,而如果发生信用事件,则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出,套息交易有个共同特征:跟某个巨大的风险(高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等)共存,在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生,但是他希望岁月静好,至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说,套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在,而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货:如果即期VIX(S&P 500隐含波动率)保持稳定,那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”(roll yield),因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端;如果同时即期VIX下行,做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌,VIX大幅上升,那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的,也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权:如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨,那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏,如果市场稳定或上涨,可以增强持股收益。当然,如果股票或指数大跌,那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌,那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底(buy the dips)策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱,但是一旦市场发生大跌,那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响,其标题就是“大家都在干这个”(Everyone’s Doing It)。对很多资金管理者来说,参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报,如果不参与,业绩不如人,则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”,股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面,因为波动率空头压过多头(如股票空头),股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面,套息策略都是助涨的,因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来,就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的?因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性,比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好,在其他不变情况下,股价也就越高。事实上,套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降,诱导机构寻找收益(searching for yield),而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然,上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来,S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌,包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升,股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心,市场又重振旗鼓,再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态,说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者,完全不用更高级的工具,只需要做S&P 500指数的多头(比如买指数ETF)。在岁月静好期间,多头有比较稳定的收益入账,但一旦发生恐慌,可能“一觉回到解放前”,要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨,享受史上最高水平的估值,并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值,持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能:股市波动受到抑制,套息盘被验证能赚钱,吸引更多套息资金入场,同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者:美联储。\n但问题是,美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗?\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提,通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%,已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说,就业情况已经不弱,而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%,远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂(transitory)的,很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落,从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性,而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色,不能看到未来。更重要的是,目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落,美联储应该加息,从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀,并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%,而且因为房屋库存水平较低(尤其是总价低的入门级房屋),同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位(也是宽松货币政策使然),房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍,推高房租水平,因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱,离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致,而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上,甚至不断升高,如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨,那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀,但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看,美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买(也就是所谓的taper),同时等待时机停止资产购买,最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘,这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘,其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险,给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率,斜率越陡,S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态,风险和收益必须匹配,所以股市崩盘风险越大,S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高,这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往,恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来,大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘:2018年一季度,2018年四季度,以及2020年一季度(见图一的三个圈圈)。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大,所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了,我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩,或者是其他冲击。一旦发生,就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环,最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中,所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时,他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓,“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升,而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压,比如风险平价基金(Risk-parity funds)需要降低股票仓位,但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者,但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时,人人都需要流动性,但没有人供应,所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发,导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心,也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费(美国GDP的大头),并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说,美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘,股票基本面会和高企的估值一起,跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场,是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说,目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲:S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期,S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里,美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后,股市套息交易会不会再来一轮?我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后,因为总需求迅速萎缩,通胀问题会迅速消失,失业问题会重返,这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤,下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗?当然可以,美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策,套息交易很可能还会复活。当然,未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高,现在难以判断。反例是日本股市,虽有央行加持,但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883388378,"gmtCreate":1631202362594,"gmtModify":1676530496386,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883388378","repostId":"1173243012","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173243012","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631201508,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173243012?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 23:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"【异动】黑莓涨超6%,公司在美国提交两项专利申请","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173243012","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","content":"<p>9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】黑莓涨超6%,公司在美国提交两项专利申请</title>\n<style 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23:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9d40affd7144ecdfdd62b9c8b3aed5","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173243012","content_text":"9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813894196,"gmtCreate":1630164759515,"gmtModify":1676530237106,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813894196","repostId":"2162711075","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836117280,"gmtCreate":1629464653540,"gmtModify":1676530049408,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baba go","listText":"Baba go","text":"Baba go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836117280","repostId":"1114951642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838608087,"gmtCreate":1629388257549,"gmtModify":1676530026718,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838608087","repostId":"1132455826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132455826","pubTimestamp":1629378280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132455826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储要“收水”,美股真的会跌吗?跌多少?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132455826","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌,但想要大跌下去的话,可能不会大。","content":"<p>一个讨论已久的taper问题,让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。</p>\n<p>美联储的会议纪要公布后,美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探,进而引发全球金融市场巨震,连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌,午后港股午盘接力,然后<b>下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃,全金融市场,几乎无一幸免。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5fddb05c7caa94a3b1f6ec9c93df7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在公布的美联储会议纪要中,美联储首次明确讨论Taper(缩减购债),还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。</p>\n<p><b>从民间讨论,到官方首次明确,并给出更加具体的时间,这个信号几成为一切恐慌的来源。</b></p>\n<p>似乎收水时间提前已是共识性结论,但问题是,美联储在这个问题上已经多次态度飘忽不定,这一次,它真能不顾一切摁下这个可能早就改摁的“核按钮”吗?</p>\n<p><i><b>01</b></i><b>高烧不退的通胀</b></p>\n<p>美联储的这个纪要并没有做出任何细节的决定,只是说就着价格稳定目标、就业目标方面已经接近让人满意的水平。但一如既往的,成员间“<b>还存在的分歧</b>”,主要问题在于很多人还是认为“<b>通胀的上涨是暂时的现象</b>”。</p>\n<p>说实在的,美联储最近有些坚守凯恩斯主义的意思,将“<b>充分就业</b>”放在了首位,通胀数据如今好像成了附庸。</p>\n<p>美国宽松的货币政策、巨量的财政补贴、复苏的经济不断刺激着CPI的增长,该指标自今年3月就突破2%的门槛,6、7月的同比增速更是到达了历史高位5.4%,经济呈现复苏过热的苗头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed5b554b6bc3ec62446ff022141ee8c\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国民众对着日益高涨的物价,早也苦不堪言,虽然还有很多居民可以领取丰厚的失业救助金,但生活消费品如肉类、水果、蔬菜等价格都出现疯狂飙升,让救助金的购买力不断下降。</p>\n<p>而如今参议院已通过的1.2万亿基建和3.5万亿美元的预算开支计划也还将持续不断地刺激着美国甚至全球基建相关的原材料价格的增长,这给未来通胀的进一步上涨埋下了可能。</p>\n<p>供应紧缺方面其实在PPI上也有体现,7月PPI同比上涨7.8%,PPI和CPI之间差距不断扩大,企业利润情况受到压缩,后期可能会传导至消费端价格。</p>\n<p>由此看来<b>,通胀的压力还是很大的,不一定能和预期一样平稳回落至正常水平,从这方面判断,CPI增速的不稳定性对于经济和股市都将不是利好的信息。</b></p>\n<p>按理说通胀数据过高,美联储就应该采用紧缩措施进行控制,但美联储迟迟未给出明确指示。而是不断安抚市场说“距离加息还很遥远”。</p>\n<p>这背后,除了德尔塔疫情再爆发的影响,也与目前就业数据的涨跌尚未能让人放心有关。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e46fbe9106463d3d09556d36fbc3cd2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但更主要的,<b>重病下猛药实为不得已的高风险疗法,并不是一招致胜就后顾无忧。现在美国通过超大规模放水“吃猛药”扶持起立的经济复苏,虽然有了极大的成效,但埋下的后遗症却是极大,一个是依赖性极强,另一个是通胀高烧不退。</b></p>\n<p>正是如此,美联储在收水的考虑上,才一直飘忽不定,犹豫不决。因为它深知一旦药停,代价可能非常大。</p>\n<p><i><b>02</b></i><b>经济真的过热了吗?</b></p>\n<p>其实美国经济的强度在一些表现上还没强到超出美联储的预期,不同的数据之间存在着矛盾。</p>\n<p>首先是美国制造业稳健恢复,7月份制造业PMI录得新高63.40,超出预期。</p>\n<p><b>但美联储最关注的就业方面的情况好像还没有触及其门槛。</b></p>\n<p>虽然自年初以来失业率下降明显,现回落至5.4%的水平,优于预期5.7%,但是和疫情前的3-4%还是有一定的距离。另外8月12日当周,首次申请失业金人数为37.5万人,距离疫情前平均水平20万人还是有差距。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e549a63987d92ac38cbcdadb19aa84\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同时,职位空缺的数量不断增大,这说明就业的增量还不足以补足岗位的需求,劳动力市场的供需不平衡的情况日益严重。</p>\n<p>而拜登3月推动的1.9万亿美元纾困法案至9月才停止,符合资格的居民可以领取高额的救济金。部分居民想着能躺着挣钱,当然对找工作没了想法,这就从某种程度上抑制了本土就业市场的恢复,使得企业产品的供应上不来,市场供需依旧紧张。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df72758e634507d170c77cc7b60ecd1\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外,消费数据还没有达到预期,美国商务部日前公布7月零售销售数据,环比下降1.1%,,前值为增长0.6%。</p>\n<p>由于个人消费支出占美国经济总量的约70%,该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。而数据的增长乏力,说明了美国消费还没有恢复原本的和预期的增长力度。后期如果停止了补助,消费可能会丧失增长动力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c32bcf506c08d16090a67fb55ac030\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>自疫情以来,美国财政支出规模不断增加,2021财年美国财政支出高达7.7万亿美元,支出主要用于失业救济、营养援助和新冠救援项目。</p>\n<p>参议院还在近日通过了拜登的1.2万亿美元的一揽子基建计划和主要致力于反贫困和改善气候环境3.5万亿的预算计划。若是在后期顺利通过众议院审核,那高额的财政支出又将拔高。</p>\n<p>实际上拜登的整体施政方针并没有超出民主党一贯的理念,依旧是通过高额的财政支出拉动经济,而其所依靠的资金来源就是通过发债及加税。如果加税没有办法弥补上述的支出金额,那只能又靠发债。</p>\n<p>而若美联储将利率保持较低利率,会更有利于积极财政政策实施。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf4374f269e5ac0784aed8157abc09\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据华西证券的研究,美国从1984年至2015年曾经历过四次降息周期。这四个时期,美联储开始降息时都面临着较大的经济下行。除了1984-1986这个时期,后面三个时期在降息不久后,都出现了经济衰退,而到降息中后期,经济逐渐得到恢复,重获增长动力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879dbfed5c68d676a0a4d688b52dd2a9\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>那用历史的轨迹推至今日,美国加息应该在经济自身恢复稳定正常的增速时,加息的脚步才会到来,而从现在的表现来说(比如消费、就业方面的指标)可能还没到达考虑加息的时刻。</p>\n<p><b>但面对高额的通胀率,美联储向抗通胀模式转向可能是不可避免,接下来的就业数据将是关键,若是失业率回落至5%左右,taper将会快速到来。</b></p>\n<p><i><b>03</b></i><b>这一次美股会大跌吗?</b></p>\n<p>关于美股会不会蹦的话题,大家已经被讨论过了无数次,也被打脸了无数次。</p>\n<p>美股到现在为止,除了去年的疫情突发冲击,到如今已经长达12年的大牛市行情。即使是在收水呼声不断提升,海外市场明显震荡的背景下,三大指数依然不断创出新高。</p>\n<p>但这一次相比以往,<b>是更复杂的宏观环境,更高的通胀问题以及更大的债务规模,如果真是一个收水周期的开始,美股还能一如既往扛得住吗?</b></p>\n<p>金融是市场的波动最底层的影响因素是经济面和流动性层面。</p>\n<p>在经济面,虽然一些副作用挺多问题也挺大,但总体上美国的经济强势复苏是确定性方向,经济不断复苏肯定会逐渐反应在企业层面的业绩增长,这也是支撑企业股价的力量。</p>\n<p>美股的一季度整体业绩就开始大超预期,包括汽车、耐用品、零售、媒体、金融、医疗保健、信息科技、原材料等主要行业的EPS同比增速都非常高,除了去年疫情冲击导致的低基数外,经济快速复苏也有很大作用。</p>\n<p><b>二季度,很多行业公司表现出来的业绩增长也继续维持超预期的强劲。</b></p>\n<p>现在机构对美股2021年的盈利一致性预期增速高达38%(上半年50%+),2022年有望回归疫情之前的水平。虽然下半年开始由去年低基数带来的高增速会逐月回落,但市场预期预计三季度盈利增速依然有24%,整体依然可观,<b>对应下来,美股当下的估值并不显得太贵了。</b></p>\n<p>截止目前,美股道指的市盈率26.4倍,纳指40.3倍,标普500的指数27.2倍,除了纳指,总体上相对其他主要市场并不算贵。</p>\n<p>并且占据大权重的各大超级巨头目前的市盈率也并不高,市值最大的前top20中,除了特斯拉外,其余的估值真的还很低,超出很多人的意料。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329eb3056a9b9f6a55ff253a1f0bf801\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在流动性方面,实际上,美元的作为全球货币锚,即使是小幅度收紧流动性,其实对美股来说从来不是大问题,因为全球资金会回补,这个事情在过去发生过无数次了。除非美联储要超大幅度收水,否则美股出现大幅度下跌的可能性会非常小。</p>\n<p>近一年来的宏观风险事件非常多,市场也不乏大幅度回调,但全球的资金依然偏好更大的股市,尤其美股市场,一直是重中之重。这种情况下,美股就算有泡沫,也很难会失去资金支持,何况经济基本面趋势并不算差。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a966f1e4c95f2e2355d57a28159ecb3\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(2021年全球市场资金股债流向分化 来源:开源证券)</p>\n<p>总体看,向好的基本面,加依然宽松的货币环境,加过得去的估值,加全球资金的偏好,这就是美股一直易涨难跌的底层逻辑。</p>\n<p>当前趋势下,这些底层因素还没有发生转变,所以美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌,但想要大跌下去的话,可能不会大。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储要“收水”,美股真的会跌吗?跌多少?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 21:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个讨论已久的taper问题,让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。\n美联储的会议纪要公布后,美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探,进而引发全球金融市场巨震,连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌,午后港股午盘接力,然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃,全金融市场,几乎无一幸免。\n\n在公布的美联储会议纪要中,美联储首次明确讨论Taper(缩减购债),还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。\n从民间...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1132455826","content_text":"一个讨论已久的taper问题,让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。\n美联储的会议纪要公布后,美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探,进而引发全球金融市场巨震,连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌,午后港股午盘接力,然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃,全金融市场,几乎无一幸免。\n\n在公布的美联储会议纪要中,美联储首次明确讨论Taper(缩减购债),还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。\n从民间讨论,到官方首次明确,并给出更加具体的时间,这个信号几成为一切恐慌的来源。\n似乎收水时间提前已是共识性结论,但问题是,美联储在这个问题上已经多次态度飘忽不定,这一次,它真能不顾一切摁下这个可能早就改摁的“核按钮”吗?\n01高烧不退的通胀\n美联储的这个纪要并没有做出任何细节的决定,只是说就着价格稳定目标、就业目标方面已经接近让人满意的水平。但一如既往的,成员间“还存在的分歧”,主要问题在于很多人还是认为“通胀的上涨是暂时的现象”。\n说实在的,美联储最近有些坚守凯恩斯主义的意思,将“充分就业”放在了首位,通胀数据如今好像成了附庸。\n美国宽松的货币政策、巨量的财政补贴、复苏的经济不断刺激着CPI的增长,该指标自今年3月就突破2%的门槛,6、7月的同比增速更是到达了历史高位5.4%,经济呈现复苏过热的苗头。\n\n美国民众对着日益高涨的物价,早也苦不堪言,虽然还有很多居民可以领取丰厚的失业救助金,但生活消费品如肉类、水果、蔬菜等价格都出现疯狂飙升,让救助金的购买力不断下降。\n而如今参议院已通过的1.2万亿基建和3.5万亿美元的预算开支计划也还将持续不断地刺激着美国甚至全球基建相关的原材料价格的增长,这给未来通胀的进一步上涨埋下了可能。\n供应紧缺方面其实在PPI上也有体现,7月PPI同比上涨7.8%,PPI和CPI之间差距不断扩大,企业利润情况受到压缩,后期可能会传导至消费端价格。\n由此看来,通胀的压力还是很大的,不一定能和预期一样平稳回落至正常水平,从这方面判断,CPI增速的不稳定性对于经济和股市都将不是利好的信息。\n按理说通胀数据过高,美联储就应该采用紧缩措施进行控制,但美联储迟迟未给出明确指示。而是不断安抚市场说“距离加息还很遥远”。\n这背后,除了德尔塔疫情再爆发的影响,也与目前就业数据的涨跌尚未能让人放心有关。\n\n但更主要的,重病下猛药实为不得已的高风险疗法,并不是一招致胜就后顾无忧。现在美国通过超大规模放水“吃猛药”扶持起立的经济复苏,虽然有了极大的成效,但埋下的后遗症却是极大,一个是依赖性极强,另一个是通胀高烧不退。\n正是如此,美联储在收水的考虑上,才一直飘忽不定,犹豫不决。因为它深知一旦药停,代价可能非常大。\n02经济真的过热了吗?\n其实美国经济的强度在一些表现上还没强到超出美联储的预期,不同的数据之间存在着矛盾。\n首先是美国制造业稳健恢复,7月份制造业PMI录得新高63.40,超出预期。\n但美联储最关注的就业方面的情况好像还没有触及其门槛。\n虽然自年初以来失业率下降明显,现回落至5.4%的水平,优于预期5.7%,但是和疫情前的3-4%还是有一定的距离。另外8月12日当周,首次申请失业金人数为37.5万人,距离疫情前平均水平20万人还是有差距。\n\n同时,职位空缺的数量不断增大,这说明就业的增量还不足以补足岗位的需求,劳动力市场的供需不平衡的情况日益严重。\n而拜登3月推动的1.9万亿美元纾困法案至9月才停止,符合资格的居民可以领取高额的救济金。部分居民想着能躺着挣钱,当然对找工作没了想法,这就从某种程度上抑制了本土就业市场的恢复,使得企业产品的供应上不来,市场供需依旧紧张。\n\n此外,消费数据还没有达到预期,美国商务部日前公布7月零售销售数据,环比下降1.1%,,前值为增长0.6%。\n由于个人消费支出占美国经济总量的约70%,该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。而数据的增长乏力,说明了美国消费还没有恢复原本的和预期的增长力度。后期如果停止了补助,消费可能会丧失增长动力。\n\n自疫情以来,美国财政支出规模不断增加,2021财年美国财政支出高达7.7万亿美元,支出主要用于失业救济、营养援助和新冠救援项目。\n参议院还在近日通过了拜登的1.2万亿美元的一揽子基建计划和主要致力于反贫困和改善气候环境3.5万亿的预算计划。若是在后期顺利通过众议院审核,那高额的财政支出又将拔高。\n实际上拜登的整体施政方针并没有超出民主党一贯的理念,依旧是通过高额的财政支出拉动经济,而其所依靠的资金来源就是通过发债及加税。如果加税没有办法弥补上述的支出金额,那只能又靠发债。\n而若美联储将利率保持较低利率,会更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n\n根据华西证券的研究,美国从1984年至2015年曾经历过四次降息周期。这四个时期,美联储开始降息时都面临着较大的经济下行。除了1984-1986这个时期,后面三个时期在降息不久后,都出现了经济衰退,而到降息中后期,经济逐渐得到恢复,重获增长动力。\n\n那用历史的轨迹推至今日,美国加息应该在经济自身恢复稳定正常的增速时,加息的脚步才会到来,而从现在的表现来说(比如消费、就业方面的指标)可能还没到达考虑加息的时刻。\n但面对高额的通胀率,美联储向抗通胀模式转向可能是不可避免,接下来的就业数据将是关键,若是失业率回落至5%左右,taper将会快速到来。\n03这一次美股会大跌吗?\n关于美股会不会蹦的话题,大家已经被讨论过了无数次,也被打脸了无数次。\n美股到现在为止,除了去年的疫情突发冲击,到如今已经长达12年的大牛市行情。即使是在收水呼声不断提升,海外市场明显震荡的背景下,三大指数依然不断创出新高。\n但这一次相比以往,是更复杂的宏观环境,更高的通胀问题以及更大的债务规模,如果真是一个收水周期的开始,美股还能一如既往扛得住吗?\n金融是市场的波动最底层的影响因素是经济面和流动性层面。\n在经济面,虽然一些副作用挺多问题也挺大,但总体上美国的经济强势复苏是确定性方向,经济不断复苏肯定会逐渐反应在企业层面的业绩增长,这也是支撑企业股价的力量。\n美股的一季度整体业绩就开始大超预期,包括汽车、耐用品、零售、媒体、金融、医疗保健、信息科技、原材料等主要行业的EPS同比增速都非常高,除了去年疫情冲击导致的低基数外,经济快速复苏也有很大作用。\n二季度,很多行业公司表现出来的业绩增长也继续维持超预期的强劲。\n现在机构对美股2021年的盈利一致性预期增速高达38%(上半年50%+),2022年有望回归疫情之前的水平。虽然下半年开始由去年低基数带来的高增速会逐月回落,但市场预期预计三季度盈利增速依然有24%,整体依然可观,对应下来,美股当下的估值并不显得太贵了。\n截止目前,美股道指的市盈率26.4倍,纳指40.3倍,标普500的指数27.2倍,除了纳指,总体上相对其他主要市场并不算贵。\n并且占据大权重的各大超级巨头目前的市盈率也并不高,市值最大的前top20中,除了特斯拉外,其余的估值真的还很低,超出很多人的意料。\n\n在流动性方面,实际上,美元的作为全球货币锚,即使是小幅度收紧流动性,其实对美股来说从来不是大问题,因为全球资金会回补,这个事情在过去发生过无数次了。除非美联储要超大幅度收水,否则美股出现大幅度下跌的可能性会非常小。\n近一年来的宏观风险事件非常多,市场也不乏大幅度回调,但全球的资金依然偏好更大的股市,尤其美股市场,一直是重中之重。这种情况下,美股就算有泡沫,也很难会失去资金支持,何况经济基本面趋势并不算差。\n\n(2021年全球市场资金股债流向分化 来源:开源证券)\n总体看,向好的基本面,加依然宽松的货币环境,加过得去的估值,加全球资金的偏好,这就是美股一直易涨难跌的底层逻辑。\n当前趋势下,这些底层因素还没有发生转变,所以美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌,但想要大跌下去的话,可能不会大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174752907,"gmtCreate":1627144259409,"gmtModify":1703484779261,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"QE lo","listText":"QE lo","text":"QE lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174752907","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144613177,"gmtCreate":1626278907699,"gmtModify":1703757101017,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144613177","repostId":"1135388122","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145133308,"gmtCreate":1626194593804,"gmtModify":1703755379047,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go to the moon","listText":"Go to the moon","text":"Go to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145133308","repostId":"2150889655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156722704,"gmtCreate":1625237758108,"gmtModify":1703739217264,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah… take a rest","listText":"Yeah… take a rest","text":"Yeah… take a rest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156722704","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168133884?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介:\n独立日是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介:</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介:</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介:\n独立日是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159458414,"gmtCreate":1624977786238,"gmtModify":1703849372685,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Serious?runnnnnn","listText":"Serious?runnnnnn","text":"Serious?runnnnnn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159458414","repostId":"2147863837","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120076995,"gmtCreate":1624290330917,"gmtModify":1703832697079,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How much","listText":"How much","text":"How much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120076995","repostId":"1196526895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196526895","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1624286593,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196526895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国产“网红”电动汽车,廉价背后的秘密","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196526895","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"国产廉价电动车,重出江湖。","content":"<p>作者/王笑渔</p>\n<p>国产廉价电动车,重出江湖。</p>\n<p>6月8日,乘联会公布了5月国内汽车销量数据。意料之外的是,被负面新闻缠绕的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>中国,并没有出现销量大跌的情况,5月仍售出了33,463辆新车,较4月份的25,845辆增长了29%。而意料之中的是,“五菱神车”宏光MINI EV以29,706辆的成绩,继续占据榜首。</p>\n<p>这份榜单,虽然洋洋洒洒列出15款新能源汽车,但是舆论的焦点无疑都汇聚在了第二、第三名,这两款来自特斯拉的“网红车”上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a821fb9d394d8f9f5386fd832ac7bb2a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果仔细再研究一下这个榜单。相信没有哪一家中国车企能笑得起来。</p>\n<p>5月销量榜的TOP15的车型中,有8款车售价在10万元(含10万元)以下,也就是说——卖得好的国产新能源汽车,绝大多数都是低端车型。</p>\n<p><b>一、廉价电动车重出江湖</b></p>\n<p>“跟老款长得一样,配置比老款更低,取消了安全气囊。”</p>\n<p>近日,虎嗅在探访位于北京朝阳区来广营地区的几家4S店后发现,新能源汽车销量榜上位列第四名的长安奔奔EV,实则是一款“减配”而来的廉价电动汽车。</p>\n<p>据这家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>4S店的销售介绍,他们这里目前出售的车型为奔奔E-star国民版,是老款长安奔奔EV的“同门兄弟”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0504107bbcf8796f95f6fe2e3a95ba84\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>两者虽然外观并无差别,但作为今年1月15日上市的车型,长安奔奔E-Star国民版的价格被拉低到了2.98万元起,比老款奔奔EV最低配版本4.98万元的起售价,还要低了2万元。</p>\n<p>新款降价2万卖,难道是厂家用心回馈消费者吗?这位长安汽车4S店销售告诉虎嗅,2.98万元和3.98万元的国民版取消了安全气囊。作为对比,老款奔奔EV最低售价为4.98万元的版本都标配了主/副驾驶安全气囊。</p>\n<p>都2021年了,安全气囊竟然不是标配?疑似减配的地方,在长安这款车上不止一处。根据HM\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>提供的车型参数可以发现,国民版还取消了驻车雷达、刹车辅助, 就连轮圈也从原来的铝合金换成了钢材,空调也只有暖风。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764bebc0e19571bb4c3d9edd00517db5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">截图自汽车之家</p>\n<p>在电池方面,新款的两个低配版本,都采用了磷酸铁锂电池。比老款的三元锂电池成本更低,但续航从原来的210km降低至150km。“想要快充的话,需要加999元可以选配”,这位销售告诉虎嗅。</p>\n<p>即便是减配,但超低的售价也吸引了无数消费者买单。一位在场销售表示,目前大部分配置都没有车,需要等起码1个月的时间才有车。“现在都可以定了,反正价格就这样”,临走前这位销售漫不经心的说道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0987d939878f26811eb9f12d9a3ccebe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不愁卖的廉价电动车不止奔奔。</p>\n<p>销量榜上的第七名奇瑞eQ,在奇瑞新能源销售门店售出的实则为“奇瑞小蚂蚁”——一款2016年问世的微型纯电动汽车。</p>\n<p>经历五年的市场洗礼,这款车依旧能卖上销量榜,靠的不是减配,而是优惠。比如6.98万元的中配版,现金优惠高达1万元,购车价不到6万元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581c7a8e469c3802e4d5d670f300357e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奇瑞小蚂蚁(拍摄:虎嗅)</p>\n<p>奇瑞新能源4S店的销售还表示,“现在还有现车,但下个月就不一定了,本月26号北京将释放一批新能源指标,7月会迎来旺季。”</p>\n<p>拿出上万元现金补贴的经销商不在少数。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>旗下的欧拉品牌,目前在售多款车型中,销量较好的为欧拉黑猫,最低配版售价为69,800元。4S店给出现金优惠为10,500元,购车价与奇瑞小蚂蚁同样不到6万元。如果指定配置,没有现车的话,需要等待至少1个月以上。</p>\n<p>低价+现金优惠,成了传统车企的新能源汽车销量秘诀。</p>\n<p><b>二、廉价背后的秘密</b></p>\n<p>在早期的新能源汽车领域,想要卖出低价靠的是补贴。</p>\n<p>举个例子,2017款奇瑞eQ电动车指导售价区间为16.99-17.19万元,在享受国家补贴、地方补贴和厂家补贴后,售价为6.98-7.18万元。以2017年当年北京的新能源汽车补贴政策计算,这款车能拿到国家、地方补贴为5.6万元。</p>\n<p>为补贴而应试考试的车企不在少数。最直接的证据就是续航,从2017年至今,新能源补贴政策对续航的门槛要求越来越高,致使车企不断推出高续航的车型来满足政策门槛。以2018年补贴政策为例,相比2017年的政策,对续航里程300km以下的车型补贴金额进行了下调,300km以上的车型补贴相应增加。</p>\n<p>今年的补贴政策就更有意思,根据2020年12月31日发布的补贴政策通知,纯电动乘用车续航里程在300公里以下的一律取消补贴。摆在国产车企面前,只有两个选择:一、把续航增加到300公里,拿到补贴;二、不要补贴,硬卖低续航的微型电动车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e77909845462fa45e894feee01125\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">欧拉黑猫(拍摄:虎嗅)</p>\n<p>第一类的产品,会直接把300km续航当做产品及格线。比如欧拉黑猫基础版续航为301km,奔奔E-star续航为301km,奇瑞小蚂蚁续航同样是301km。这样一来,在确保补贴金额最大化的同时,避免增加过多续航所带来的电池成本增加,最终就实现了产品定价的最低化。</p>\n<p>而五菱宏光MINI EV就属于第二类,不要补贴,只求最低价。2.88万元起的宏光MINI EV,续航只有120km。即便是高配版4.36万元的车型,续航也才170km,与补贴门槛的300km相去甚远。事实证明,不要国家补贴也能畅销。去年7月上市以来,宏光MINI EV连续9个月稳居中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>市场销冠。</p>\n<p>宏光MINI EV崛起,让更多车企开始探索无补贴的“无人区”。比如,前广汽<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>创始人廖兵创办的自由汽车,据一位知情人士向虎嗅透露,自由汽车目前准备进军10万元以下的微型纯电动市场,对标宏光MINI EV、长安奔奔EV等热销车型。还有,大众汽车旗下产品思皓E10X,起售价3.99万-7.59万元,提供NEDC工况150km、200km、302km三种续航版本。</p>\n<p>看到这,可能有很多人表示疑惑,原来燃油车都没有卖过这么便宜,现在纯电动汽车为何纷纷便宜到跟“老年代步车”抢市场呢?低价背后还有个秘密,是双积分制度。</p>\n<p>今年5月,工信息部发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理实施情况年度报告(2021)》。报告显示,2020年度,中国138家乘用车企业中,燃料消耗量负积分达666万,新能源正积分为328万分。这也就意味着,双积分仍存在338万分的缺口。</p>\n<p>稍微科普一下“双积分制度”:生产新能源车积正分,燃油车积负分,各类车积多少分有明确标准,以一年为限,车企的积分=平均燃油消耗量负积分+新能源汽车正积分。负积分可以与正积分之间进行交易,抵偿,转让等。</p>\n<p>根据规定,如果车企没有满足新能源的积分要求,将会受到暂停高油耗产品申报、暂停高油耗产品生产等处罚。不过,对于企业平均燃料消耗量负积分数量较大的车企来说,可以使用本企业结转的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业受让的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业产生的新能源汽车正积分,以及购买新能源汽车正积分这几种办法来抵偿负积分。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0b4ddf19202ec2e49e3241cc8c5422\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c4f49d586e24e4fca7c35064d8a579\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>简单来说,对于主要生产燃油车的企业,要么花钱买积分,要么多卖新能源汽车赚积分。</p>\n<p>不久前,有外媒报道,大众在中国的合资企业一汽-大众将从特斯拉购买新能源汽车积分,出价约为每个积分3000元人民币,远高于前几年的价格。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>发布的研报显示,当前新能源积分交易价格已从最初的300元-500元/分,上涨至2500元-3000元/分,涨幅达9倍。全国工商联汽车经销商商会常务会长、新能源汽车专委会会长李金勇在采访中表示,今年的新能源积分将延续去年供不应求的局面,积分价格或将达到6000-10000元/分。</p>\n<p>另一种方式,就是多卖新能源汽车。比如上汽通用五菱2020年度,获得了44万新能源正积分,为上汽通用解决92万负积分提供了一定的保障。</p>\n<p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">长城汽车</a>旗下欧拉品牌的欧拉黑猫为例,2021年,一辆欧拉黑猫可获取新能源正积分2.08分,每分价格计为6000元,电池成本可下降100元/千瓦时,磷酸铁锂成本的降幅更大,虽然补贴减少了,但总成本仍可降低1.24万元。也就是说,电池成本的降低足以抵消补贴减少对企业造车成本的不利影响。</p>\n<p>一位欧拉汽车的销售告诉虎嗅,在欧拉品牌的销量帮助下,去年长城汽车完成了双积分任务,也就意味着长城汽车不需要额外花钱购买新能源正积分。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f96da395f189240abfe1bafe3ebad45e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图片来源:《电动汽车观察家》</p>\n<p>再比如,长安汽车2020年的平均燃料消耗量负积分接近62万分,新能源正积分只有不到3万分,还需要60万分需要抵偿。同理,如果购买积分,每分3000元,需要花费18亿元。如果生产奔奔EV,每辆车的新能源正积分算作2分,则需生产30万辆即可。有内部人士透露,即便低价卖车亏钱,也比购买积分付出的性价比高,这是长安力推超低价奔奔E-Star的主要原因。</p>\n<p><b>写在最后</b></p>\n<p>一个更有趣的现象,正在发生。</p>\n<p>今年6月17日,工信部就《纯电动乘用车技术条件》这项推荐性国家标准征求意见。标准增加了针对微型低速纯电动乘用车的技术要求,这意味着,“老年代步车”有望从监管灰色地带纳入正规化管理。</p>\n<p>“我认为把低速电动车纳入规范化管理,事实上给予了规范企业一个上升的通道,同时淘汰不规范的企业,不过这一定程度上导致微型车企业面临尴尬的局面。”</p>\n<p>中国汽车流通协会汽车市场研究分会秘书长崔东树在采访中表示,微型车企业要在高成本与求生存之间进行选择,上去的话成本就高了,下去的话就没有活路了。</p>\n<p>接下来,很可能你会看到这样的市场情形——国产车企生产的微型纯电动汽车,和“老头乐”开始抢市场。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国产“网红”电动汽车,廉价背后的秘密</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国产“网红”电动汽车,廉价背后的秘密\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 22:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>作者/王笑渔</p>\n<p>国产廉价电动车,重出江湖。</p>\n<p>6月8日,乘联会公布了5月国内汽车销量数据。意料之外的是,被负面新闻缠绕的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>中国,并没有出现销量大跌的情况,5月仍售出了33,463辆新车,较4月份的25,845辆增长了29%。而意料之中的是,“五菱神车”宏光MINI EV以29,706辆的成绩,继续占据榜首。</p>\n<p>这份榜单,虽然洋洋洒洒列出15款新能源汽车,但是舆论的焦点无疑都汇聚在了第二、第三名,这两款来自特斯拉的“网红车”上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a821fb9d394d8f9f5386fd832ac7bb2a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果仔细再研究一下这个榜单。相信没有哪一家中国车企能笑得起来。</p>\n<p>5月销量榜的TOP15的车型中,有8款车售价在10万元(含10万元)以下,也就是说——卖得好的国产新能源汽车,绝大多数都是低端车型。</p>\n<p><b>一、廉价电动车重出江湖</b></p>\n<p>“跟老款长得一样,配置比老款更低,取消了安全气囊。”</p>\n<p>近日,虎嗅在探访位于北京朝阳区来广营地区的几家4S店后发现,新能源汽车销量榜上位列第四名的长安奔奔EV,实则是一款“减配”而来的廉价电动汽车。</p>\n<p>据这家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>4S店的销售介绍,他们这里目前出售的车型为奔奔E-star国民版,是老款长安奔奔EV的“同门兄弟”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0504107bbcf8796f95f6fe2e3a95ba84\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>两者虽然外观并无差别,但作为今年1月15日上市的车型,长安奔奔E-Star国民版的价格被拉低到了2.98万元起,比老款奔奔EV最低配版本4.98万元的起售价,还要低了2万元。</p>\n<p>新款降价2万卖,难道是厂家用心回馈消费者吗?这位长安汽车4S店销售告诉虎嗅,2.98万元和3.98万元的国民版取消了安全气囊。作为对比,老款奔奔EV最低售价为4.98万元的版本都标配了主/副驾驶安全气囊。</p>\n<p>都2021年了,安全气囊竟然不是标配?疑似减配的地方,在长安这款车上不止一处。根据HM\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>提供的车型参数可以发现,国民版还取消了驻车雷达、刹车辅助, 就连轮圈也从原来的铝合金换成了钢材,空调也只有暖风。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764bebc0e19571bb4c3d9edd00517db5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">截图自汽车之家</p>\n<p>在电池方面,新款的两个低配版本,都采用了磷酸铁锂电池。比老款的三元锂电池成本更低,但续航从原来的210km降低至150km。“想要快充的话,需要加999元可以选配”,这位销售告诉虎嗅。</p>\n<p>即便是减配,但超低的售价也吸引了无数消费者买单。一位在场销售表示,目前大部分配置都没有车,需要等起码1个月的时间才有车。“现在都可以定了,反正价格就这样”,临走前这位销售漫不经心的说道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0987d939878f26811eb9f12d9a3ccebe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不愁卖的廉价电动车不止奔奔。</p>\n<p>销量榜上的第七名奇瑞eQ,在奇瑞新能源销售门店售出的实则为“奇瑞小蚂蚁”——一款2016年问世的微型纯电动汽车。</p>\n<p>经历五年的市场洗礼,这款车依旧能卖上销量榜,靠的不是减配,而是优惠。比如6.98万元的中配版,现金优惠高达1万元,购车价不到6万元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581c7a8e469c3802e4d5d670f300357e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奇瑞小蚂蚁(拍摄:虎嗅)</p>\n<p>奇瑞新能源4S店的销售还表示,“现在还有现车,但下个月就不一定了,本月26号北京将释放一批新能源指标,7月会迎来旺季。”</p>\n<p>拿出上万元现金补贴的经销商不在少数。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>旗下的欧拉品牌,目前在售多款车型中,销量较好的为欧拉黑猫,最低配版售价为69,800元。4S店给出现金优惠为10,500元,购车价与奇瑞小蚂蚁同样不到6万元。如果指定配置,没有现车的话,需要等待至少1个月以上。</p>\n<p>低价+现金优惠,成了传统车企的新能源汽车销量秘诀。</p>\n<p><b>二、廉价背后的秘密</b></p>\n<p>在早期的新能源汽车领域,想要卖出低价靠的是补贴。</p>\n<p>举个例子,2017款奇瑞eQ电动车指导售价区间为16.99-17.19万元,在享受国家补贴、地方补贴和厂家补贴后,售价为6.98-7.18万元。以2017年当年北京的新能源汽车补贴政策计算,这款车能拿到国家、地方补贴为5.6万元。</p>\n<p>为补贴而应试考试的车企不在少数。最直接的证据就是续航,从2017年至今,新能源补贴政策对续航的门槛要求越来越高,致使车企不断推出高续航的车型来满足政策门槛。以2018年补贴政策为例,相比2017年的政策,对续航里程300km以下的车型补贴金额进行了下调,300km以上的车型补贴相应增加。</p>\n<p>今年的补贴政策就更有意思,根据2020年12月31日发布的补贴政策通知,纯电动乘用车续航里程在300公里以下的一律取消补贴。摆在国产车企面前,只有两个选择:一、把续航增加到300公里,拿到补贴;二、不要补贴,硬卖低续航的微型电动车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e77909845462fa45e894feee01125\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">欧拉黑猫(拍摄:虎嗅)</p>\n<p>第一类的产品,会直接把300km续航当做产品及格线。比如欧拉黑猫基础版续航为301km,奔奔E-star续航为301km,奇瑞小蚂蚁续航同样是301km。这样一来,在确保补贴金额最大化的同时,避免增加过多续航所带来的电池成本增加,最终就实现了产品定价的最低化。</p>\n<p>而五菱宏光MINI EV就属于第二类,不要补贴,只求最低价。2.88万元起的宏光MINI EV,续航只有120km。即便是高配版4.36万元的车型,续航也才170km,与补贴门槛的300km相去甚远。事实证明,不要国家补贴也能畅销。去年7月上市以来,宏光MINI EV连续9个月稳居中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>市场销冠。</p>\n<p>宏光MINI EV崛起,让更多车企开始探索无补贴的“无人区”。比如,前广汽<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>创始人廖兵创办的自由汽车,据一位知情人士向虎嗅透露,自由汽车目前准备进军10万元以下的微型纯电动市场,对标宏光MINI EV、长安奔奔EV等热销车型。还有,大众汽车旗下产品思皓E10X,起售价3.99万-7.59万元,提供NEDC工况150km、200km、302km三种续航版本。</p>\n<p>看到这,可能有很多人表示疑惑,原来燃油车都没有卖过这么便宜,现在纯电动汽车为何纷纷便宜到跟“老年代步车”抢市场呢?低价背后还有个秘密,是双积分制度。</p>\n<p>今年5月,工信息部发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理实施情况年度报告(2021)》。报告显示,2020年度,中国138家乘用车企业中,燃料消耗量负积分达666万,新能源正积分为328万分。这也就意味着,双积分仍存在338万分的缺口。</p>\n<p>稍微科普一下“双积分制度”:生产新能源车积正分,燃油车积负分,各类车积多少分有明确标准,以一年为限,车企的积分=平均燃油消耗量负积分+新能源汽车正积分。负积分可以与正积分之间进行交易,抵偿,转让等。</p>\n<p>根据规定,如果车企没有满足新能源的积分要求,将会受到暂停高油耗产品申报、暂停高油耗产品生产等处罚。不过,对于企业平均燃料消耗量负积分数量较大的车企来说,可以使用本企业结转的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业受让的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业产生的新能源汽车正积分,以及购买新能源汽车正积分这几种办法来抵偿负积分。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0b4ddf19202ec2e49e3241cc8c5422\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c4f49d586e24e4fca7c35064d8a579\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>简单来说,对于主要生产燃油车的企业,要么花钱买积分,要么多卖新能源汽车赚积分。</p>\n<p>不久前,有外媒报道,大众在中国的合资企业一汽-大众将从特斯拉购买新能源汽车积分,出价约为每个积分3000元人民币,远高于前几年的价格。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>发布的研报显示,当前新能源积分交易价格已从最初的300元-500元/分,上涨至2500元-3000元/分,涨幅达9倍。全国工商联汽车经销商商会常务会长、新能源汽车专委会会长李金勇在采访中表示,今年的新能源积分将延续去年供不应求的局面,积分价格或将达到6000-10000元/分。</p>\n<p>另一种方式,就是多卖新能源汽车。比如上汽通用五菱2020年度,获得了44万新能源正积分,为上汽通用解决92万负积分提供了一定的保障。</p>\n<p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">长城汽车</a>旗下欧拉品牌的欧拉黑猫为例,2021年,一辆欧拉黑猫可获取新能源正积分2.08分,每分价格计为6000元,电池成本可下降100元/千瓦时,磷酸铁锂成本的降幅更大,虽然补贴减少了,但总成本仍可降低1.24万元。也就是说,电池成本的降低足以抵消补贴减少对企业造车成本的不利影响。</p>\n<p>一位欧拉汽车的销售告诉虎嗅,在欧拉品牌的销量帮助下,去年长城汽车完成了双积分任务,也就意味着长城汽车不需要额外花钱购买新能源正积分。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f96da395f189240abfe1bafe3ebad45e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图片来源:《电动汽车观察家》</p>\n<p>再比如,长安汽车2020年的平均燃料消耗量负积分接近62万分,新能源正积分只有不到3万分,还需要60万分需要抵偿。同理,如果购买积分,每分3000元,需要花费18亿元。如果生产奔奔EV,每辆车的新能源正积分算作2分,则需生产30万辆即可。有内部人士透露,即便低价卖车亏钱,也比购买积分付出的性价比高,这是长安力推超低价奔奔E-Star的主要原因。</p>\n<p><b>写在最后</b></p>\n<p>一个更有趣的现象,正在发生。</p>\n<p>今年6月17日,工信部就《纯电动乘用车技术条件》这项推荐性国家标准征求意见。标准增加了针对微型低速纯电动乘用车的技术要求,这意味着,“老年代步车”有望从监管灰色地带纳入正规化管理。</p>\n<p>“我认为把低速电动车纳入规范化管理,事实上给予了规范企业一个上升的通道,同时淘汰不规范的企业,不过这一定程度上导致微型车企业面临尴尬的局面。”</p>\n<p>中国汽车流通协会汽车市场研究分会秘书长崔东树在采访中表示,微型车企业要在高成本与求生存之间进行选择,上去的话成本就高了,下去的话就没有活路了。</p>\n<p>接下来,很可能你会看到这样的市场情形——国产车企生产的微型纯电动汽车,和“老头乐”开始抢市场。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0973327334b37476e8dc23769e2729e","relate_stocks":{"00305":"五菱汽车","000625":"长安汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196526895","content_text":"作者/王笑渔\n国产廉价电动车,重出江湖。\n6月8日,乘联会公布了5月国内汽车销量数据。意料之外的是,被负面新闻缠绕的特斯拉中国,并没有出现销量大跌的情况,5月仍售出了33,463辆新车,较4月份的25,845辆增长了29%。而意料之中的是,“五菱神车”宏光MINI EV以29,706辆的成绩,继续占据榜首。\n这份榜单,虽然洋洋洒洒列出15款新能源汽车,但是舆论的焦点无疑都汇聚在了第二、第三名,这两款来自特斯拉的“网红车”上。\n\n如果仔细再研究一下这个榜单。相信没有哪一家中国车企能笑得起来。\n5月销量榜的TOP15的车型中,有8款车售价在10万元(含10万元)以下,也就是说——卖得好的国产新能源汽车,绝大多数都是低端车型。\n一、廉价电动车重出江湖\n“跟老款长得一样,配置比老款更低,取消了安全气囊。”\n近日,虎嗅在探访位于北京朝阳区来广营地区的几家4S店后发现,新能源汽车销量榜上位列第四名的长安奔奔EV,实则是一款“减配”而来的廉价电动汽车。\n据这家长安汽车4S店的销售介绍,他们这里目前出售的车型为奔奔E-star国民版,是老款长安奔奔EV的“同门兄弟”。\n\n两者虽然外观并无差别,但作为今年1月15日上市的车型,长安奔奔E-Star国民版的价格被拉低到了2.98万元起,比老款奔奔EV最低配版本4.98万元的起售价,还要低了2万元。\n新款降价2万卖,难道是厂家用心回馈消费者吗?这位长安汽车4S店销售告诉虎嗅,2.98万元和3.98万元的国民版取消了安全气囊。作为对比,老款奔奔EV最低售价为4.98万元的版本都标配了主/副驾驶安全气囊。\n都2021年了,安全气囊竟然不是标配?疑似减配的地方,在长安这款车上不止一处。根据HM\">汽车之家提供的车型参数可以发现,国民版还取消了驻车雷达、刹车辅助, 就连轮圈也从原来的铝合金换成了钢材,空调也只有暖风。\n截图自汽车之家\n在电池方面,新款的两个低配版本,都采用了磷酸铁锂电池。比老款的三元锂电池成本更低,但续航从原来的210km降低至150km。“想要快充的话,需要加999元可以选配”,这位销售告诉虎嗅。\n即便是减配,但超低的售价也吸引了无数消费者买单。一位在场销售表示,目前大部分配置都没有车,需要等起码1个月的时间才有车。“现在都可以定了,反正价格就这样”,临走前这位销售漫不经心的说道。\n\n不愁卖的廉价电动车不止奔奔。\n销量榜上的第七名奇瑞eQ,在奇瑞新能源销售门店售出的实则为“奇瑞小蚂蚁”——一款2016年问世的微型纯电动汽车。\n经历五年的市场洗礼,这款车依旧能卖上销量榜,靠的不是减配,而是优惠。比如6.98万元的中配版,现金优惠高达1万元,购车价不到6万元。\n奇瑞小蚂蚁(拍摄:虎嗅)\n奇瑞新能源4S店的销售还表示,“现在还有现车,但下个月就不一定了,本月26号北京将释放一批新能源指标,7月会迎来旺季。”\n拿出上万元现金补贴的经销商不在少数。长城汽车旗下的欧拉品牌,目前在售多款车型中,销量较好的为欧拉黑猫,最低配版售价为69,800元。4S店给出现金优惠为10,500元,购车价与奇瑞小蚂蚁同样不到6万元。如果指定配置,没有现车的话,需要等待至少1个月以上。\n低价+现金优惠,成了传统车企的新能源汽车销量秘诀。\n二、廉价背后的秘密\n在早期的新能源汽车领域,想要卖出低价靠的是补贴。\n举个例子,2017款奇瑞eQ电动车指导售价区间为16.99-17.19万元,在享受国家补贴、地方补贴和厂家补贴后,售价为6.98-7.18万元。以2017年当年北京的新能源汽车补贴政策计算,这款车能拿到国家、地方补贴为5.6万元。\n为补贴而应试考试的车企不在少数。最直接的证据就是续航,从2017年至今,新能源补贴政策对续航的门槛要求越来越高,致使车企不断推出高续航的车型来满足政策门槛。以2018年补贴政策为例,相比2017年的政策,对续航里程300km以下的车型补贴金额进行了下调,300km以上的车型补贴相应增加。\n今年的补贴政策就更有意思,根据2020年12月31日发布的补贴政策通知,纯电动乘用车续航里程在300公里以下的一律取消补贴。摆在国产车企面前,只有两个选择:一、把续航增加到300公里,拿到补贴;二、不要补贴,硬卖低续航的微型电动车。\n欧拉黑猫(拍摄:虎嗅)\n第一类的产品,会直接把300km续航当做产品及格线。比如欧拉黑猫基础版续航为301km,奔奔E-star续航为301km,奇瑞小蚂蚁续航同样是301km。这样一来,在确保补贴金额最大化的同时,避免增加过多续航所带来的电池成本增加,最终就实现了产品定价的最低化。\n而五菱宏光MINI EV就属于第二类,不要补贴,只求最低价。2.88万元起的宏光MINI EV,续航只有120km。即便是高配版4.36万元的车型,续航也才170km,与补贴门槛的300km相去甚远。事实证明,不要国家补贴也能畅销。去年7月上市以来,宏光MINI EV连续9个月稳居中国新能源市场销冠。\n宏光MINI EV崛起,让更多车企开始探索无补贴的“无人区”。比如,前广汽蔚来创始人廖兵创办的自由汽车,据一位知情人士向虎嗅透露,自由汽车目前准备进军10万元以下的微型纯电动市场,对标宏光MINI EV、长安奔奔EV等热销车型。还有,大众汽车旗下产品思皓E10X,起售价3.99万-7.59万元,提供NEDC工况150km、200km、302km三种续航版本。\n看到这,可能有很多人表示疑惑,原来燃油车都没有卖过这么便宜,现在纯电动汽车为何纷纷便宜到跟“老年代步车”抢市场呢?低价背后还有个秘密,是双积分制度。\n今年5月,工信息部发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理实施情况年度报告(2021)》。报告显示,2020年度,中国138家乘用车企业中,燃料消耗量负积分达666万,新能源正积分为328万分。这也就意味着,双积分仍存在338万分的缺口。\n稍微科普一下“双积分制度”:生产新能源车积正分,燃油车积负分,各类车积多少分有明确标准,以一年为限,车企的积分=平均燃油消耗量负积分+新能源汽车正积分。负积分可以与正积分之间进行交易,抵偿,转让等。\n根据规定,如果车企没有满足新能源的积分要求,将会受到暂停高油耗产品申报、暂停高油耗产品生产等处罚。不过,对于企业平均燃料消耗量负积分数量较大的车企来说,可以使用本企业结转的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业受让的平均燃料消耗量正积分、使用本企业产生的新能源汽车正积分,以及购买新能源汽车正积分这几种办法来抵偿负积分。\n\n简单来说,对于主要生产燃油车的企业,要么花钱买积分,要么多卖新能源汽车赚积分。\n不久前,有外媒报道,大众在中国的合资企业一汽-大众将从特斯拉购买新能源汽车积分,出价约为每个积分3000元人民币,远高于前几年的价格。\n兴业证券发布的研报显示,当前新能源积分交易价格已从最初的300元-500元/分,上涨至2500元-3000元/分,涨幅达9倍。全国工商联汽车经销商商会常务会长、新能源汽车专委会会长李金勇在采访中表示,今年的新能源积分将延续去年供不应求的局面,积分价格或将达到6000-10000元/分。\n另一种方式,就是多卖新能源汽车。比如上汽通用五菱2020年度,获得了44万新能源正积分,为上汽通用解决92万负积分提供了一定的保障。\n以长城汽车旗下欧拉品牌的欧拉黑猫为例,2021年,一辆欧拉黑猫可获取新能源正积分2.08分,每分价格计为6000元,电池成本可下降100元/千瓦时,磷酸铁锂成本的降幅更大,虽然补贴减少了,但总成本仍可降低1.24万元。也就是说,电池成本的降低足以抵消补贴减少对企业造车成本的不利影响。\n一位欧拉汽车的销售告诉虎嗅,在欧拉品牌的销量帮助下,去年长城汽车完成了双积分任务,也就意味着长城汽车不需要额外花钱购买新能源正积分。\n图片来源:《电动汽车观察家》\n再比如,长安汽车2020年的平均燃料消耗量负积分接近62万分,新能源正积分只有不到3万分,还需要60万分需要抵偿。同理,如果购买积分,每分3000元,需要花费18亿元。如果生产奔奔EV,每辆车的新能源正积分算作2分,则需生产30万辆即可。有内部人士透露,即便低价卖车亏钱,也比购买积分付出的性价比高,这是长安力推超低价奔奔E-Star的主要原因。\n写在最后\n一个更有趣的现象,正在发生。\n今年6月17日,工信部就《纯电动乘用车技术条件》这项推荐性国家标准征求意见。标准增加了针对微型低速纯电动乘用车的技术要求,这意味着,“老年代步车”有望从监管灰色地带纳入正规化管理。\n“我认为把低速电动车纳入规范化管理,事实上给予了规范企业一个上升的通道,同时淘汰不规范的企业,不过这一定程度上导致微型车企业面临尴尬的局面。”\n中国汽车流通协会汽车市场研究分会秘书长崔东树在采访中表示,微型车企业要在高成本与求生存之间进行选择,上去的话成本就高了,下去的话就没有活路了。\n接下来,很可能你会看到这样的市场情形——国产车企生产的微型纯电动汽车,和“老头乐”开始抢市场。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160926090,"gmtCreate":1623770014210,"gmtModify":1703818931269,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160926090","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149978895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<blockquote>\n 石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n</blockquote>\n<p>据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。<b>这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。</b></p>\n<p>此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。<b>有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。</b></p>\n<p>不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。</p>\n<p>壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。</p>\n<p>去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。<b>美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。</b></p>\n<p>今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。</p>\n<p>上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。</p>\n<p><b>包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。</b></p>\n<p>其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。</p>\n<p>二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。</p>\n<p>行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">高露洁</a>能源,以减少其债务。</p>\n<p>能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。</p>\n<p>交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。<b>由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源,以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"What they are thinking","text":"What they are thinking","html":"What they are thinking"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160921628,"gmtCreate":1623769966764,"gmtModify":1703818929121,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160921628","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149978895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<blockquote>\n 石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n</blockquote>\n<p>据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。<b>这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。</b></p>\n<p>此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。<b>有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。</b></p>\n<p>不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。</p>\n<p>壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。</p>\n<p>去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。<b>美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。</b></p>\n<p>今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。</p>\n<p>上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。</p>\n<p><b>包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。</b></p>\n<p>其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。</p>\n<p>二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。</p>\n<p>行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">高露洁</a>能源,以减少其债务。</p>\n<p>能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。</p>\n<p>交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。<b>由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源,以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188302584,"gmtCreate":1623420817948,"gmtModify":1704203238739,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2022","listText":"2022","text":"2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188302584","repostId":"1104096254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104096254","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623401262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104096254?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104096254","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。\n\n但是,协","content":"<p>上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531f18349f426a4f0493645dd7ec3657\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。</p>\n<p>不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。</p>\n<p>反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。</p>\n<p>Jefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:</p>\n<p>“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”</p>\n<p>需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。</p>\n<p>这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。</p>\n<p>那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?</p>\n<p>今年早些时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。</p>\n<p>目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。</p>\n<p>但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。</p>\n<p>\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。</p>\n<p>由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。</p>\n<p>对于像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。</p>\n<p>制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。</p>\n<p>高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f966cd05c6d82c619e66e17ae40aa65e\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"904\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>数据来源:高盛</span></p>\n<p>以半导体设计公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。</p>\n<p> “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。</p>\n<p>如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。</p>\n<p>此外,科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EA\">电子艺界</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和eBay,以及支付巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>,制药巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>和医疗器械制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COO\">库珀医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SYK\">史赛克</a>等也榜上有名。</p>\n<p>投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-11 16:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531f18349f426a4f0493645dd7ec3657\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。</p>\n<p>不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。</p>\n<p>反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。</p>\n<p>Jefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:</p>\n<p>“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”</p>\n<p>需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。</p>\n<p>这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。</p>\n<p>那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?</p>\n<p>今年早些时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。</p>\n<p>目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。</p>\n<p>但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。</p>\n<p>\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。</p>\n<p>由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。</p>\n<p>对于像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。</p>\n<p>制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。</p>\n<p>高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f966cd05c6d82c619e66e17ae40aa65e\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"904\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>数据来源:高盛</span></p>\n<p>以半导体设计公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。</p>\n<p> “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。</p>\n<p>如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。</p>\n<p>此外,科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EA\">电子艺界</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和eBay,以及支付巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>,制药巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>和医疗器械制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COO\">库珀医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SYK\">史赛克</a>等也榜上有名。</p>\n<p>投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1daa770db96139d9a5c7284b0b66f9","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","EA":"艺电","ILMN":"Illumina",".DJI":"道琼斯","ORCL":"甲骨文","V":"Visa","AAPL":"苹果","EBAY":"eBay",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104096254","content_text":"上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。\n\n但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。\n不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。\n反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。\nJefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:\n“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”\n需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。\n这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。\n那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?\n今年早些时候,高盛的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。\n目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。\n但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。\n\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。\n由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。\n对于像Facebook或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。\n制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。\n高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。\n \n数据来源:高盛\n以半导体设计公司英伟达为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。\n “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。\n如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。\n此外,科技巨头苹果,电子艺界,Adobe,甲骨文和eBay,以及支付巨头Visa,制药巨头安进和医疗器械制造商库珀医疗、爱德华兹和史赛克等也榜上有名。\n投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115620978,"gmtCreate":1622988333794,"gmtModify":1704194107207,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115620978","repostId":"2141285668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134614301,"gmtCreate":1622221255703,"gmtModify":1704181868867,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of coz","listText":"Of coz","text":"Of coz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134614301","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132085906,"gmtCreate":1622045275105,"gmtModify":1704178506595,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","listText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","text":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132085906","repostId":"2138514348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138514348","pubTimestamp":1622043062,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138514348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138514348","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,$亚马逊$与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","content":"<p>根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。</p>\n<p>按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">全食超市</a> (Whole Foods Market)的收购。</p>\n<p>亚马逊在新闻稿中表示,它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出,来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。</p>\n<p>亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示,该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP,亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示,将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。</p>\n<p>在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中,他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员,且在过去的一年里,有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。</p>\n<p>亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容,以便与Netflix、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权,例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧,该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。</p>\n<p>此外,亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月,亚马逊与NFL(美国职业橄榄球大联盟)签署了一项为期10年的协议,将以平均每年12亿美元的年费,每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时,它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。</p>\n<p>米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一,成立于1924年,曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖,12项最佳影片奖,在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。</p>\n<p>去年12月,米高梅聘请了投资银行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和LionTree LLC,寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外,还有其他企业参与竞购。</p>\n<p>据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 23:31 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138514348","content_text":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。\n亚马逊在新闻稿中表示,它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出,来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。\n亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示,该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP,亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示,将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。\n在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中,他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员,且在过去的一年里,有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。\n亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容,以便与Netflix、迪士尼等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权,例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧,该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。\n此外,亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月,亚马逊与NFL(美国职业橄榄球大联盟)签署了一项为期10年的协议,将以平均每年12亿美元的年费,每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时,它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。\n米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一,成立于1924年,曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖,12项最佳影片奖,在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。\n去年12月,米高梅聘请了投资银行摩根士丹利和LionTree LLC,寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外,还有其他企业参与竞购。\n据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","text":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","html":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198325118,"gmtCreate":1620930592034,"gmtModify":1704350680936,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198325118","repostId":"1162795644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Hv to observe further then","text":"Hv to observe further then","html":"Hv to observe further then"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107642413,"gmtCreate":1620487761032,"gmtModify":1704344307197,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gambate","listText":"Gambate","text":"Gambate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107642413","repostId":"2133795685","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347540248,"gmtCreate":1618504054384,"gmtModify":1704712003142,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another EV truck?","listText":"Another EV truck?","text":"Another EV truck?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347540248","repostId":"1118045413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Mmh... [Facepalm]","text":"Mmh... [Facepalm]","html":"Mmh... [Facepalm]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348819937,"gmtCreate":1617905835429,"gmtModify":1704704669846,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New trick","listText":"New trick","text":"New trick","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348819937","repostId":"1153796291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796291","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"‘金融是件专业的事情,投资不是拍脑袋决定的’-记录是一种维持连续思考最好的方式,我就是付鹏,一个我眼里的财经世界","home_visible":1,"media_name":"付鹏的财经世界","id":"75","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33671c46c6ed4ba5b38664f7d8985b0d"},"pubTimestamp":1617895300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153796291?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-08 23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"有效的财政政策循环,美国希望全球税收一起来买单","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796291","media":"付鹏的财经世界","summary":"拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资","content":"<p>拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;</p>\n<p>---付鹏 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">东北证券</a>首席经济学家<b>”</b></p>\n<p><b>01、财政政策的有效循环的关键——形成有效税基</b></p>\n<p><b>西方国家出现财政政策的无效循环源自于生产要素的缺失和公共支出过度推升政府债务的恶性循环;</b></p>\n<p>1)财政政策用于“投资”手段发挥作用,类似当年的美国和二十年前的中国一样,需要投资能够生成足够的经济增长和广泛性的居民收入,但是最终全球化的发展是资本逐利的选择,这其中投资有效的最重要的生产要素发生了转移,发达国家的生产制造业向新兴市场迁移、发达国家产业空心化,使得相应要素在收入分配中的角色无效化,催生了分配差距。这种分配差距也不仅表现在同一国家的不同阶层之间,也表现在发达国家和新兴市场之间。要素无效化和收入分配差距,使得社会福利支出和财政刺激难以形成广泛群体的收入增长,财富始终向少数掌握有效生产要素的人聚集,从而无法扩大税基,财政收入难以覆盖支出,从而刺激债务进一步扩张,催生了财政赤字“无底洞”式的增长,而超出收入能力的过度财政负债和高福利相互强化,形成了恶性循环。</p>\n<p> 2) 之后西方社会选择用财政政策通过社会福利体系减少居民部门支出以此来达到消费带动经济拉动税基的方式,也是有自身的瓶颈的,一方面西方民选政府的体制弊病之一是,<b>社会福利支出常年呈现过度化倾向</b>,而争取选票等制度性因素使得大部分政治家难有决心压缩福利;过度福利支出改变了民众的收入预期,加大了对政府的依赖;另一方面随着K型社会的不断加剧,中底层居民无法获得持续的广泛的收入增长,并且不断的在消费刺激的背景下形成了巨大的债务,这些债务最终抑制了消费的税基,最终是的走消费这条路的经济背后的财政仍就会陷入恶性循环;</p>\n<p><b>拜登新政未改西方社会沉疴,想要形成财政政策的有效循环还需辅以生产要素回流、弥补资本避税漏洞等诸多条件</b>。从投资角度来看,拜登新政中有关大规模基建的计划,在支出的投向上与以往相比具有新意,采用了新能源和旧基建并行的策略,但由于发展阶段和资源禀赋的不同,以及美国制造业外移和产业的空心化,美国的基建计划带来的边际收益和协同效应将远低于中国(当然目前中国自身在2008年之后其实也陷入到了类似的影响中,所以后续中国自身的投资刺激的空间也几乎大打折扣)。</p>\n<p>从融资角度来看,<b>能否成功征收“富人税”是拜登政府财政闭环中的关键,</b>包括将公司税率从21%提高到28%,收入超过40万美元的个人,所得税率从37%提高到39.6%,年收入超过100万美元的家庭,提高其资本利得税税率等。</p>\n<p>但如前所述,当前美国已经陷入了部分生产要素无效化格局,即便拜登的大规模财政刺激得到了有效的执行,但收入增长并不能被像罗斯福或里根时代一样沿着“基建链”传导,广大人群并未分享到收入增长,从而有效税基无法扩大。同时,由于类似爱尔兰、开曼群岛等避税天堂的存在,如果“富人税”的税率提高,国际间税差扩大,那么富人便会大量出逃,反而使得税基收窄。</p>\n<p><b>02、资本的自由流动和国际税率的逐底竞争</b></p>\n<p><b>由于资本的避税天性,如果无法避免全球各国的企业税率竞赛,那么拜登政府的征收富人税的计划最终容易变成空中楼阁。</b>在资本自由流动的世界中,国家间的税收竞争开始增强,这让许多国家减免了对资本的征税。后果就是对于很多国家的顶层收入者而言,税收已经变为累退的。资本具有避税的天性,比如各种税收抵免、慈善基金,将企业注册在避税天堂等等,为企业提供了大量的合法避税途径。</p>\n<p>拜登接受采访时提到财富500强企业中有五十多家公司过去三年里一分钱的税都没有交过。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为例,通过研发税收抵免、资产减值一次性抵免等各种避税手段,亚马逊在2017和2018年连续两年没有缴纳任何的联邦所得税,而在2019年该公司也只缴纳了1.62亿美元的联邦所得税。</p>\n<p>从数据来看,资本收益避税漏洞的存在,使得最富裕阶级的缴纳税率反而低于中低收入人群。根据Emmanuel Saez和Gabriel Zucman测算 ,2018年400个最富有家庭的平均有效缴税税率为23%,相比于收入水平位于50%分位数以下的家庭的平均有效缴税税率,低了1.2个百分点。因此,要真正使得加税政策能够发挥调节收入分配的作用,还需要<b>堵上资本避税的漏洞,否则最终加税的成本将大部分由中产阶级来承担</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e944396b8f4cd1624fcb6c128ec7f777\" tg-width=\"352\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>最富裕阶级平均实际缴税税率不断降低</p>\n<p>数据来源:Emmanuel Saez,Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay</p>\n<p><b>03、拜登真正的财政闭环计划里关键的一环“全球最低企业税率”</b></p>\n<p>所以拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df7fbc02cbd360020eda02ec907093ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>为此美国(最近主要是耶伦到处的游说)正在寻求与G20国家合作,制定全球公司最低税率,并对公司总部设在未采取最低税率国家和地区的企业取消税收优惠,此外把美国公司最低税率提高到21%,并逐个国家进行计算,以减少外包和海外避税行为。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441773f88460fb5ebe1bbda09430865b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"101\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但建立起全球统一的最低税率推行起来仍然存在很大难度,发展中国家仍然需要降低税收等一些优惠条件来吸引外资实现经济发展,而即便发达国家,部分税收较低的小国担忧全球最低税率会损害本国的经济。爱尔兰财长Donohoe对关注全球最低企业税率持保留意见,认为有关全球最低企业税率的辩论至少需要几个月的时间。</p>\n<p>但就这一点我就觉得全球一致行动来给美国财政买单这一环的可能性就非常低,全球贸易战打到技术战,现在延续到了财政战;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b69570bcdcef2aaaf4e9d31731d47f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>全球主要国家企业所得税率比较</p>\n<p>数据来源:OECD</p>\n<p>另外由于各国税收体制不同,例如中国是以间接税为主,税收主要来自于企业,而美国个人所得税为第一大税种,中国税收中占比最大的增值税,而美国作为世界上唯一没有增值税的大国,特朗普曾称美国因为没有增值税而在国际贸易中处于劣势。对于大型科技企业而言,“数字税”征收与否仍是欧盟国家和美国之间谈判的一大焦点。对于中国各个地方政府给的税收优惠会被全球最低税率给抵消掉,而营商环境方面中国对比西方没有优势,这也是用财政政策引导美国企业回流;</p>\n<p><b>全球最低税率将是拜登政府增税计划中重要的一部分,美国希望全球税收一起来为美国投资债务买单,不是件容易的事情。。。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>有效的财政政策循环,美国希望全球税收一起来买单</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n有效的财政政策循环,美国希望全球税收一起来买单\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/75\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/33671c46c6ed4ba5b38664f7d8985b0d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">付鹏的财经世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-08 23:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;</p>\n<p>---付鹏 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">东北证券</a>首席经济学家<b>”</b></p>\n<p><b>01、财政政策的有效循环的关键——形成有效税基</b></p>\n<p><b>西方国家出现财政政策的无效循环源自于生产要素的缺失和公共支出过度推升政府债务的恶性循环;</b></p>\n<p>1)财政政策用于“投资”手段发挥作用,类似当年的美国和二十年前的中国一样,需要投资能够生成足够的经济增长和广泛性的居民收入,但是最终全球化的发展是资本逐利的选择,这其中投资有效的最重要的生产要素发生了转移,发达国家的生产制造业向新兴市场迁移、发达国家产业空心化,使得相应要素在收入分配中的角色无效化,催生了分配差距。这种分配差距也不仅表现在同一国家的不同阶层之间,也表现在发达国家和新兴市场之间。要素无效化和收入分配差距,使得社会福利支出和财政刺激难以形成广泛群体的收入增长,财富始终向少数掌握有效生产要素的人聚集,从而无法扩大税基,财政收入难以覆盖支出,从而刺激债务进一步扩张,催生了财政赤字“无底洞”式的增长,而超出收入能力的过度财政负债和高福利相互强化,形成了恶性循环。</p>\n<p> 2) 之后西方社会选择用财政政策通过社会福利体系减少居民部门支出以此来达到消费带动经济拉动税基的方式,也是有自身的瓶颈的,一方面西方民选政府的体制弊病之一是,<b>社会福利支出常年呈现过度化倾向</b>,而争取选票等制度性因素使得大部分政治家难有决心压缩福利;过度福利支出改变了民众的收入预期,加大了对政府的依赖;另一方面随着K型社会的不断加剧,中底层居民无法获得持续的广泛的收入增长,并且不断的在消费刺激的背景下形成了巨大的债务,这些债务最终抑制了消费的税基,最终是的走消费这条路的经济背后的财政仍就会陷入恶性循环;</p>\n<p><b>拜登新政未改西方社会沉疴,想要形成财政政策的有效循环还需辅以生产要素回流、弥补资本避税漏洞等诸多条件</b>。从投资角度来看,拜登新政中有关大规模基建的计划,在支出的投向上与以往相比具有新意,采用了新能源和旧基建并行的策略,但由于发展阶段和资源禀赋的不同,以及美国制造业外移和产业的空心化,美国的基建计划带来的边际收益和协同效应将远低于中国(当然目前中国自身在2008年之后其实也陷入到了类似的影响中,所以后续中国自身的投资刺激的空间也几乎大打折扣)。</p>\n<p>从融资角度来看,<b>能否成功征收“富人税”是拜登政府财政闭环中的关键,</b>包括将公司税率从21%提高到28%,收入超过40万美元的个人,所得税率从37%提高到39.6%,年收入超过100万美元的家庭,提高其资本利得税税率等。</p>\n<p>但如前所述,当前美国已经陷入了部分生产要素无效化格局,即便拜登的大规模财政刺激得到了有效的执行,但收入增长并不能被像罗斯福或里根时代一样沿着“基建链”传导,广大人群并未分享到收入增长,从而有效税基无法扩大。同时,由于类似爱尔兰、开曼群岛等避税天堂的存在,如果“富人税”的税率提高,国际间税差扩大,那么富人便会大量出逃,反而使得税基收窄。</p>\n<p><b>02、资本的自由流动和国际税率的逐底竞争</b></p>\n<p><b>由于资本的避税天性,如果无法避免全球各国的企业税率竞赛,那么拜登政府的征收富人税的计划最终容易变成空中楼阁。</b>在资本自由流动的世界中,国家间的税收竞争开始增强,这让许多国家减免了对资本的征税。后果就是对于很多国家的顶层收入者而言,税收已经变为累退的。资本具有避税的天性,比如各种税收抵免、慈善基金,将企业注册在避税天堂等等,为企业提供了大量的合法避税途径。</p>\n<p>拜登接受采访时提到财富500强企业中有五十多家公司过去三年里一分钱的税都没有交过。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为例,通过研发税收抵免、资产减值一次性抵免等各种避税手段,亚马逊在2017和2018年连续两年没有缴纳任何的联邦所得税,而在2019年该公司也只缴纳了1.62亿美元的联邦所得税。</p>\n<p>从数据来看,资本收益避税漏洞的存在,使得最富裕阶级的缴纳税率反而低于中低收入人群。根据Emmanuel Saez和Gabriel Zucman测算 ,2018年400个最富有家庭的平均有效缴税税率为23%,相比于收入水平位于50%分位数以下的家庭的平均有效缴税税率,低了1.2个百分点。因此,要真正使得加税政策能够发挥调节收入分配的作用,还需要<b>堵上资本避税的漏洞,否则最终加税的成本将大部分由中产阶级来承担</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e944396b8f4cd1624fcb6c128ec7f777\" tg-width=\"352\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>最富裕阶级平均实际缴税税率不断降低</p>\n<p>数据来源:Emmanuel Saez,Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay</p>\n<p><b>03、拜登真正的财政闭环计划里关键的一环“全球最低企业税率”</b></p>\n<p>所以拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df7fbc02cbd360020eda02ec907093ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>为此美国(最近主要是耶伦到处的游说)正在寻求与G20国家合作,制定全球公司最低税率,并对公司总部设在未采取最低税率国家和地区的企业取消税收优惠,此外把美国公司最低税率提高到21%,并逐个国家进行计算,以减少外包和海外避税行为。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441773f88460fb5ebe1bbda09430865b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"101\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但建立起全球统一的最低税率推行起来仍然存在很大难度,发展中国家仍然需要降低税收等一些优惠条件来吸引外资实现经济发展,而即便发达国家,部分税收较低的小国担忧全球最低税率会损害本国的经济。爱尔兰财长Donohoe对关注全球最低企业税率持保留意见,认为有关全球最低企业税率的辩论至少需要几个月的时间。</p>\n<p>但就这一点我就觉得全球一致行动来给美国财政买单这一环的可能性就非常低,全球贸易战打到技术战,现在延续到了财政战;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b69570bcdcef2aaaf4e9d31731d47f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>全球主要国家企业所得税率比较</p>\n<p>数据来源:OECD</p>\n<p>另外由于各国税收体制不同,例如中国是以间接税为主,税收主要来自于企业,而美国个人所得税为第一大税种,中国税收中占比最大的增值税,而美国作为世界上唯一没有增值税的大国,特朗普曾称美国因为没有增值税而在国际贸易中处于劣势。对于大型科技企业而言,“数字税”征收与否仍是欧盟国家和美国之间谈判的一大焦点。对于中国各个地方政府给的税收优惠会被全球最低税率给抵消掉,而营商环境方面中国对比西方没有优势,这也是用财政政策引导美国企业回流;</p>\n<p><b>全球最低税率将是拜登政府增税计划中重要的一部分,美国希望全球税收一起来为美国投资债务买单,不是件容易的事情。。。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796291","content_text":"拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;\n---付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家”\n01、财政政策的有效循环的关键——形成有效税基\n西方国家出现财政政策的无效循环源自于生产要素的缺失和公共支出过度推升政府债务的恶性循环;\n1)财政政策用于“投资”手段发挥作用,类似当年的美国和二十年前的中国一样,需要投资能够生成足够的经济增长和广泛性的居民收入,但是最终全球化的发展是资本逐利的选择,这其中投资有效的最重要的生产要素发生了转移,发达国家的生产制造业向新兴市场迁移、发达国家产业空心化,使得相应要素在收入分配中的角色无效化,催生了分配差距。这种分配差距也不仅表现在同一国家的不同阶层之间,也表现在发达国家和新兴市场之间。要素无效化和收入分配差距,使得社会福利支出和财政刺激难以形成广泛群体的收入增长,财富始终向少数掌握有效生产要素的人聚集,从而无法扩大税基,财政收入难以覆盖支出,从而刺激债务进一步扩张,催生了财政赤字“无底洞”式的增长,而超出收入能力的过度财政负债和高福利相互强化,形成了恶性循环。\n 2) 之后西方社会选择用财政政策通过社会福利体系减少居民部门支出以此来达到消费带动经济拉动税基的方式,也是有自身的瓶颈的,一方面西方民选政府的体制弊病之一是,社会福利支出常年呈现过度化倾向,而争取选票等制度性因素使得大部分政治家难有决心压缩福利;过度福利支出改变了民众的收入预期,加大了对政府的依赖;另一方面随着K型社会的不断加剧,中底层居民无法获得持续的广泛的收入增长,并且不断的在消费刺激的背景下形成了巨大的债务,这些债务最终抑制了消费的税基,最终是的走消费这条路的经济背后的财政仍就会陷入恶性循环;\n拜登新政未改西方社会沉疴,想要形成财政政策的有效循环还需辅以生产要素回流、弥补资本避税漏洞等诸多条件。从投资角度来看,拜登新政中有关大规模基建的计划,在支出的投向上与以往相比具有新意,采用了新能源和旧基建并行的策略,但由于发展阶段和资源禀赋的不同,以及美国制造业外移和产业的空心化,美国的基建计划带来的边际收益和协同效应将远低于中国(当然目前中国自身在2008年之后其实也陷入到了类似的影响中,所以后续中国自身的投资刺激的空间也几乎大打折扣)。\n从融资角度来看,能否成功征收“富人税”是拜登政府财政闭环中的关键,包括将公司税率从21%提高到28%,收入超过40万美元的个人,所得税率从37%提高到39.6%,年收入超过100万美元的家庭,提高其资本利得税税率等。\n但如前所述,当前美国已经陷入了部分生产要素无效化格局,即便拜登的大规模财政刺激得到了有效的执行,但收入增长并不能被像罗斯福或里根时代一样沿着“基建链”传导,广大人群并未分享到收入增长,从而有效税基无法扩大。同时,由于类似爱尔兰、开曼群岛等避税天堂的存在,如果“富人税”的税率提高,国际间税差扩大,那么富人便会大量出逃,反而使得税基收窄。\n02、资本的自由流动和国际税率的逐底竞争\n由于资本的避税天性,如果无法避免全球各国的企业税率竞赛,那么拜登政府的征收富人税的计划最终容易变成空中楼阁。在资本自由流动的世界中,国家间的税收竞争开始增强,这让许多国家减免了对资本的征税。后果就是对于很多国家的顶层收入者而言,税收已经变为累退的。资本具有避税的天性,比如各种税收抵免、慈善基金,将企业注册在避税天堂等等,为企业提供了大量的合法避税途径。\n拜登接受采访时提到财富500强企业中有五十多家公司过去三年里一分钱的税都没有交过。以亚马逊为例,通过研发税收抵免、资产减值一次性抵免等各种避税手段,亚马逊在2017和2018年连续两年没有缴纳任何的联邦所得税,而在2019年该公司也只缴纳了1.62亿美元的联邦所得税。\n从数据来看,资本收益避税漏洞的存在,使得最富裕阶级的缴纳税率反而低于中低收入人群。根据Emmanuel Saez和Gabriel Zucman测算 ,2018年400个最富有家庭的平均有效缴税税率为23%,相比于收入水平位于50%分位数以下的家庭的平均有效缴税税率,低了1.2个百分点。因此,要真正使得加税政策能够发挥调节收入分配的作用,还需要堵上资本避税的漏洞,否则最终加税的成本将大部分由中产阶级来承担。\n\n最富裕阶级平均实际缴税税率不断降低\n数据来源:Emmanuel Saez,Gabriel Zucman: The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay\n03、拜登真正的财政闭环计划里关键的一环“全球最低企业税率”\n所以拜登真正的财政政策闭环里面的关键一环就是想让全球都伴随着他一起抬高税率,防止美国单方面搞征税必然会导致一些企业和资本家全球开溜合理避税,只有全球主要经济体大家一起抬高税率,才能够让美国抬高税收完成投资闭环的同时还避免资本外逃和全球避税的风险,顺利的完成拜登的收税-弥补基建的缺口;\n\n为此美国(最近主要是耶伦到处的游说)正在寻求与G20国家合作,制定全球公司最低税率,并对公司总部设在未采取最低税率国家和地区的企业取消税收优惠,此外把美国公司最低税率提高到21%,并逐个国家进行计算,以减少外包和海外避税行为。\n\n但建立起全球统一的最低税率推行起来仍然存在很大难度,发展中国家仍然需要降低税收等一些优惠条件来吸引外资实现经济发展,而即便发达国家,部分税收较低的小国担忧全球最低税率会损害本国的经济。爱尔兰财长Donohoe对关注全球最低企业税率持保留意见,认为有关全球最低企业税率的辩论至少需要几个月的时间。\n但就这一点我就觉得全球一致行动来给美国财政买单这一环的可能性就非常低,全球贸易战打到技术战,现在延续到了财政战;\n\n全球主要国家企业所得税率比较\n数据来源:OECD\n另外由于各国税收体制不同,例如中国是以间接税为主,税收主要来自于企业,而美国个人所得税为第一大税种,中国税收中占比最大的增值税,而美国作为世界上唯一没有增值税的大国,特朗普曾称美国因为没有增值税而在国际贸易中处于劣势。对于大型科技企业而言,“数字税”征收与否仍是欧盟国家和美国之间谈判的一大焦点。对于中国各个地方政府给的税收优惠会被全球最低税率给抵消掉,而营商环境方面中国对比西方没有优势,这也是用财政政策引导美国企业回流;\n全球最低税率将是拜登政府增税计划中重要的一部分,美国希望全球税收一起来为美国投资债务买单,不是件容易的事情。。。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132085906,"gmtCreate":1622045275105,"gmtModify":1704178506595,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","listText":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","text":"It’s mgm studio not mgm resort","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132085906","repostId":"2138514348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138514348","pubTimestamp":1622043062,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138514348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138514348","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,$亚马逊$与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","content":"<p>根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。</p>\n<p>按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">全食超市</a> (Whole Foods Market)的收购。</p>\n<p>亚马逊在新闻稿中表示,它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出,来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。</p>\n<p>亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示,该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP,亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示,将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。</p>\n<p>在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中,他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员,且在过去的一年里,有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。</p>\n<p>亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容,以便与Netflix、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权,例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧,该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。</p>\n<p>此外,亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月,亚马逊与NFL(美国职业橄榄球大联盟)签署了一项为期10年的协议,将以平均每年12亿美元的年费,每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时,它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。</p>\n<p>米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一,成立于1924年,曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖,12项最佳影片奖,在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。</p>\n<p>去年12月,米高梅聘请了投资银行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和LionTree LLC,寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外,还有其他企业参与竞购。</p>\n<p>据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n流媒体重磅收购敲定!亚马逊84.5亿美元买下米高梅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 23:31 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631370","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138514348","content_text":"根据当地时间5月26日发布的新闻稿,亚马逊与米高梅已签订最终收购协议,亚马逊同意以84.5亿美元收购米高梅,该价格略微低于早前传出的85-90亿美元这一区间。有观点认为,该交易标志着亚马逊在娱乐业中迈出了最大胆的一步,并为其在流媒体方面的雄心壮志提供动力。\n按金额计算,该交易是亚马逊历史上第二大收购,仅次于亚马逊在2017年以137亿美元对全食超市 (Whole Foods Market)的收购。\n亚马逊在新闻稿中表示,它希望借由米高梅传奇的电影制作史以及超过4000部电影和17000个电视剧的广泛产出,来加强旗下的影视部门Amazon Studios。\n亚马逊负责Prime Video业务和Amazon Studios的高级副总裁Mike Hopkins表示,该交易背后的真正财务价值是在于米高梅所拥有的大量IP,亚马逊将与米高梅的团队一起进行重新开发和拓展。米高梅董事会主席Kevin Ulrich表示,将米高梅的传奇历史和亚马逊联合起来是令人鼓舞的。\n在亚马逊CEO贝佐斯今年致股东的信中,他称亚马逊已在全球范围内拥有2亿Prime会员,且在过去的一年里,有1.75亿的Prime会员使用了Prime Video。\n亚马逊正在为其Prime Video服务扩展更多影视内容,以便与Netflix、迪士尼等其他流媒体平台竞争。其已花费数亿美元从购买影视发行版权,例如目前正在制作的《指环王》系列电视剧,该剧第一季预算为4.65亿美元。\n此外,亚马逊还在体育直播方面投入了大量资金。今年3月,亚马逊与NFL(美国职业橄榄球大联盟)签署了一项为期10年的协议,将以平均每年12亿美元的年费,每个赛季在其Prime Video平台转播15场比赛。与此同时,它还获得了NFL 2022-23年赛季周四夜赛的独家转播权。\n米高梅电影公司是好莱坞八大影业公司之一,成立于1924年,曾制作了《乱世佳人》、《007》系列、《猫和老鼠》等家喻户晓的影视节目。其出品的影片至今共获得177项奥斯卡奖,12项最佳影片奖,在好莱坞各大影片公司中独占鳌头。\n去年12月,米高梅聘请了投资银行摩根士丹利和LionTree LLC,寻求出售事宜。而除亚马逊之外,还有其他企业参与竞购。\n据米高梅电影公司财报显示,其去年收入为14.96亿美元,高于2016年的11.8亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","text":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha","html":"It caused MgM resort stock up too... Haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881301741,"gmtCreate":1631288544883,"gmtModify":1676530522085,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who knows ","listText":"Who knows ","text":"Who knows","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881301741","repostId":"1181368305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181368305","pubTimestamp":1631267491,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181368305?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储的爱,不是无条件的!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181368305","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller","content":"<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储的爱,不是无条件的!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ><strong>国际金融报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致:几乎直线倾斜向上,稍有偏离,很快被修复。只有一个区别,这轮上涨斜率更高(如图一:S&P 500指数月K线)。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势,背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先,也是最重要、最根本的,是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始,美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”(Greenspan put)就是指当股市下跌时,格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权(也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险),于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后,美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模,但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头,最后不仅没有缩小,反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松(QE2和QE3),于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初,鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱,发现新任主席爱心不足,立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后,鲍威尔紧急转弯,恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧,于是放心地继续斜线上涨,直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后,美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中,美联储使出浑身解数,不仅迅速将政策利率调到零,而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买,从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底,美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元,几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券,还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效,市场信心恢复,抄底资金涌入,S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往,让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然,这届美联储可能已经别无选择,必须对股市百般呵护,因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标(股市总市值/GDP)已经超过200%,这一方面说明股市估值高企,另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动,从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值,最近已经超过37万亿美元,还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%,蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏,股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里,公共退休基金(即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池)在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里,还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛,股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害,还可能导致社会混乱(想象如果公共退休金亏空违约)。\n对美联储来说,可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市,就是呵护经济。\n当然,美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新,美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样,直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离,它给市场搭了台,唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样,决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的,在笔者看来,是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易(Carry trade)的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空(借入)日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低,雷亚尔利率高,所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值,套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然,如果雷亚尔大幅贬值,该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易:如果贷款顺利付息还本,那么银行赚到息差,否则将大亏。再比如,保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易:如果受保人无事,那么保险公司赚到保险费,如果出事(例如重疾、财产损失等),则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易:如果发行者顺利还本付息,那么获得利息收入,而如果发生信用事件,则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出,套息交易有个共同特征:跟某个巨大的风险(高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等)共存,在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生,但是他希望岁月静好,至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说,套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在,而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货:如果即期VIX(S&P 500隐含波动率)保持稳定,那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”(roll yield),因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端;如果同时即期VIX下行,做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌,VIX大幅上升,那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的,也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权:如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨,那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏,如果市场稳定或上涨,可以增强持股收益。当然,如果股票或指数大跌,那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌,那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底(buy the dips)策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱,但是一旦市场发生大跌,那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响,其标题就是“大家都在干这个”(Everyone’s Doing It)。对很多资金管理者来说,参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报,如果不参与,业绩不如人,则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”,股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面,因为波动率空头压过多头(如股票空头),股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面,套息策略都是助涨的,因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来,就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的?因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性,比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好,在其他不变情况下,股价也就越高。事实上,套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降,诱导机构寻找收益(searching for yield),而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然,上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来,S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌,包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升,股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心,市场又重振旗鼓,再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态,说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者,完全不用更高级的工具,只需要做S&P 500指数的多头(比如买指数ETF)。在岁月静好期间,多头有比较稳定的收益入账,但一旦发生恐慌,可能“一觉回到解放前”,要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨,享受史上最高水平的估值,并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值,持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能:股市波动受到抑制,套息盘被验证能赚钱,吸引更多套息资金入场,同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者:美联储。\n但问题是,美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗?\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提,通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%,已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说,就业情况已经不弱,而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%,远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂(transitory)的,很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落,从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性,而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色,不能看到未来。更重要的是,目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落,美联储应该加息,从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀,并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%,而且因为房屋库存水平较低(尤其是总价低的入门级房屋),同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位(也是宽松货币政策使然),房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍,推高房租水平,因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱,离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致,而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上,甚至不断升高,如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨,那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀,但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看,美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买(也就是所谓的taper),同时等待时机停止资产购买,最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘,这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘,其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险,给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率,斜率越陡,S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态,风险和收益必须匹配,所以股市崩盘风险越大,S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高,这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往,恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来,大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘:2018年一季度,2018年四季度,以及2020年一季度(见图一的三个圈圈)。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大,所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了,我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩,或者是其他冲击。一旦发生,就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环,最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中,所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时,他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓,“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升,而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压,比如风险平价基金(Risk-parity funds)需要降低股票仓位,但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者,但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时,人人都需要流动性,但没有人供应,所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发,导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心,也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费(美国GDP的大头),并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说,美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘,股票基本面会和高企的估值一起,跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场,是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说,目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲:S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期,S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里,美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后,股市套息交易会不会再来一轮?我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后,因为总需求迅速萎缩,通胀问题会迅速消失,失业问题会重返,这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤,下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗?当然可以,美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策,套息交易很可能还会复活。当然,未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高,现在难以判断。反例是日本股市,虽有央行加持,但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342957269,"gmtCreate":1618163215751,"gmtModify":1704707041451,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be safe","listText":"Be safe","text":"Be safe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342957269","repostId":"1129676573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Ya... Take cautious approach","text":"Ya... Take cautious approach","html":"Ya... Take cautious approach"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357443724,"gmtCreate":1617291814168,"gmtModify":1704698502488,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Support","listText":"Support","text":"Support","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357443724","repostId":"1185961704","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185961704","pubTimestamp":1617291608,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185961704?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 23:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"木头姐:中国的“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185961704","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日,方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中,大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。她强调,在中国,不要只关注单个公司的崛起,更重要的是“颠覆性","content":"<p>近日,方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中,大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。</p><p>她强调,<b>在中国,不要只关注单个公司的崛起,更重要的是“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起,这是实现指数式增长的根本力量,包括DNA测序、机器人技术、储能、人工智能和区块链。</b></p><p>她举例说,<b>在DNA测序方面,中国企业正在后来居上,中国的协作机器人也已经发展至前沿水平</b>。她说:“我们看到更多的机器人和更高的生产率,这对整个经济都有好处。”</p><p>她还说,<b>在政府和私营部门的合作之下,中国的人工智能和芯片技术得到了加强</b>。</p><p>另外,从环境和技术角度来看,<b>中国对电动汽车的重视给她留下了“非常深刻的印象”,</b>“中国允许<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>进入,表明了政府决心让电动汽车在中国遍地开花。”</p><p>Cathie Wood专注于创新与科技投资,旗下基金产品在过去三年中创造了远超大盘与同类基金的强劲回报,被誉为“科技女股神”“牛市女皇”。</p><p>Cathie Wood旗下旗舰产品方舟创新ETF(ARKK)在2020年实现了惊人的152%的回报率,资管规模一度达到200亿美元。该基金用约10%的资产押注特斯拉,该股股价从去年年初的84美元飙升至去年年底的749美元,增幅超过900%。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐:中国的“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐:中国的“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-01 23:40 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3625946><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日,方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中,大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。她强调,在中国,不要只关注单个公司的崛起,更重要的是“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起,这是实现指数式增长的根本力量,包括DNA测序、机器人技术、储能、人工智能和区块链。她举例说,在DNA测序方面,中国企业正在后来居上,中国的协作机器人也已经发展至前沿水平。她说:“我们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3625946\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5b714196a7f48e3a1873938c3772315","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3625946","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1185961704","content_text":"近日,方舟投资管理公司创始人Cathie Wood在与MSCI亚太区研究部主管魏震博士的连线直播中,大谈“颠覆性创新技术”在中国的发展前景。她强调,在中国,不要只关注单个公司的崛起,更重要的是“颠覆性创新平台”在崛起,这是实现指数式增长的根本力量,包括DNA测序、机器人技术、储能、人工智能和区块链。她举例说,在DNA测序方面,中国企业正在后来居上,中国的协作机器人也已经发展至前沿水平。她说:“我们看到更多的机器人和更高的生产率,这对整个经济都有好处。”她还说,在政府和私营部门的合作之下,中国的人工智能和芯片技术得到了加强。另外,从环境和技术角度来看,中国对电动汽车的重视给她留下了“非常深刻的印象”,“中国允许特斯拉进入,表明了政府决心让电动汽车在中国遍地开花。”Cathie Wood专注于创新与科技投资,旗下基金产品在过去三年中创造了远超大盘与同类基金的强劲回报,被誉为“科技女股神”“牛市女皇”。Cathie Wood旗下旗舰产品方舟创新ETF(ARKK)在2020年实现了惊人的152%的回报率,资管规模一度达到200亿美元。该基金用约10%的资产押注特斯拉,该股股价从去年年初的84美元飙升至去年年底的749美元,增幅超过900%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352989314,"gmtCreate":1616857146438,"gmtModify":1704799624308,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy when others are fearful","listText":"Buy when others are fearful","text":"Buy when others are fearful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352989314","repostId":"2122472374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2122472374","pubTimestamp":1616770512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2122472374?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Stock Has Crashed 20%: Here's Why You Should Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2122472374","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The high-flying chipmaker has been battered on the stock market this year, but it could soon turn around.","content":"<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (NASDAQ:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>) stock hit a 52-week high in January this year, but the price for this high-flying chipmaker has pulled back over 20% since then thanks to a variety of factors such as the broader sell-off in tech stocks and rival <b>Intel</b>'s (NASDAQ:INTC) resurgence under new leadership.</p>\n<p>However, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> look at the pace of AMD's growth and its outlook for the year tells us that the recent sell-off in the stock may not be justified. The chipmaker ended 2020 on a high and expects to deliver massive growth once again this year. More importantly, investors shouldn't worry too much about the potential impact of Intel's recent announcements on AMD's fortunes just yet, as the latter has enough going for it to ward off any threat from its bigger rival.</p>\n<p>Let's see why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20fce0458082e183812db30c73121bac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>AMD data by YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>AMD isn't going to fall behind Intel anytime soon</h2>\n<p>AMD chipped away substantially at Intel's dominance in PC central processing units (CPUs) and server processors last year. The chipmaker ended 2020 with a 21.7% share of the x86 processor market, which includes chips used in servers, laptops, and desktops, up from 15.1% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.</p>\n<p>However, there has been chatter of Intel being on the path of a turnaround, as it had reclaimed some of its market share from AMD in the fourth quarter of 2020 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. That chatter has only become stronger as Chipzilla reportedly looks to erase AMD's technological leadership with aggressive capacity investments.</p>\n<p>Intel recently announced a capital expenditure budget of $20 billion for 2021, a big increase over last year's $14 billion outlay, as it looks to shore up its manufacturing. The company says that the delays it faced with the 10-nanometer (nm) and 7nm chip manufacturing processes are now fixed. In fact, Intel says that its 7nm client CPUs code-named Meteor Lake are in development and will tape in the next quarter. Intel is expected to start shipping its 7nm PC chips to customers in 2023, while data center chips based on the platform are also expected in that year.</p>\n<p>AMD has already been selling 7nm processors for quite some time now, giving it an advantage over Intel, which fumbled its transition to the competing 10nm platform and has remained stuck on the 14nm platform for a long time now. What's more, investors need not be afraid of Intel's progress on the 7nm front, as Chipzilla's timeline for the launch of those chips hasn't changed.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d1a80e2bc655d91abe37c8c8083b1ab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>In fact, AMD can be expected to raise its game by the time Intel's 7nm chips hit the market by transitioning to the competing 5nm manufacturing node within the next couple of years. A smaller processing node will allow AMD to pack more transistors closer to each other, leading to improved computing performance and lower power consumption.</p>\n<p>Therefore, AMD can remain ahead of Intel once it makes the transition to a smaller 5nm process node. Chipzilla is unlikely to regain its technology lead until the launch of its own 5nm process, the timeline for which is unknown right now. As it turns out, AMD's foundry partner <b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b> is reportedly working to increase the production capacity of 5nm chips. That should bode well for AMD, as it is expected to become TSMC's second-largest customer and enjoy stronger bargaining power.</p>\n<p>Additionally, AMD can be expected to keep up the pressure on Intel in the data center space after the launch of its latest EPYC server processors. AMD claims that the latest EPYC 7003 processors based on the 7nm process are twice as fast as Intel's competing chips. Third-party tests conducted by <i>AnandTech</i> indicate the same.</p>\n<p>More importantly, AMD has a solid lineup of clients using the latest EPYC server processors. They include <b>Amazon</b>, <b>Cisco</b>, <b>Dell Technologies</b>, <b>Alphabet</b>'s Google, <b>Microsoft</b>, <b>Lenovo</b>, and <b>Tencent</b>. So it won't be surprising to see AMD log big gains in the data center market in both the short and the long run.</p>\n<h2>Buy when others are fearful</h2>\n<p>AMD stock has become cheaper thanks to the recent pullback, trading at 38 times trailing earnings. That's really cheap compared to last year's average trailing earnings multiple of 124, thanks to the sharp spike in the company's earnings and a lower share price. The good news is that AMD's bottom-line growth is here to stay thanks to a variety of catalysts, and it may not be long before the stock price follows suit.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df9f57ab94b1797b8d6fa062e624a07\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>AMD EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>All of this makes AMD a growth stock worth buying right now, as it continues to remain in a solid position against Intel and has additional growth drivers in the bag.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock Has Crashed 20%: Here's Why You Should Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock Has Crashed 20%: Here's Why You Should Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-26 22:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/26/amd-stock-has-crashed-20-heres-why-you-should-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) stock hit a 52-week high in January this year, but the price for this high-flying chipmaker has pulled back over 20% since then thanks to a variety of factors such ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/26/amd-stock-has-crashed-20-heres-why-you-should-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/26/amd-stock-has-crashed-20-heres-why-you-should-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2122472374","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) stock hit a 52-week high in January this year, but the price for this high-flying chipmaker has pulled back over 20% since then thanks to a variety of factors such as the broader sell-off in tech stocks and rival Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) resurgence under new leadership.\nHowever, one look at the pace of AMD's growth and its outlook for the year tells us that the recent sell-off in the stock may not be justified. The chipmaker ended 2020 on a high and expects to deliver massive growth once again this year. More importantly, investors shouldn't worry too much about the potential impact of Intel's recent announcements on AMD's fortunes just yet, as the latter has enough going for it to ward off any threat from its bigger rival.\nLet's see why.\nAMD data by YCharts\nAMD isn't going to fall behind Intel anytime soon\nAMD chipped away substantially at Intel's dominance in PC central processing units (CPUs) and server processors last year. The chipmaker ended 2020 with a 21.7% share of the x86 processor market, which includes chips used in servers, laptops, and desktops, up from 15.1% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.\nHowever, there has been chatter of Intel being on the path of a turnaround, as it had reclaimed some of its market share from AMD in the fourth quarter of 2020 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. That chatter has only become stronger as Chipzilla reportedly looks to erase AMD's technological leadership with aggressive capacity investments.\nIntel recently announced a capital expenditure budget of $20 billion for 2021, a big increase over last year's $14 billion outlay, as it looks to shore up its manufacturing. The company says that the delays it faced with the 10-nanometer (nm) and 7nm chip manufacturing processes are now fixed. In fact, Intel says that its 7nm client CPUs code-named Meteor Lake are in development and will tape in the next quarter. Intel is expected to start shipping its 7nm PC chips to customers in 2023, while data center chips based on the platform are also expected in that year.\nAMD has already been selling 7nm processors for quite some time now, giving it an advantage over Intel, which fumbled its transition to the competing 10nm platform and has remained stuck on the 14nm platform for a long time now. What's more, investors need not be afraid of Intel's progress on the 7nm front, as Chipzilla's timeline for the launch of those chips hasn't changed.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nIn fact, AMD can be expected to raise its game by the time Intel's 7nm chips hit the market by transitioning to the competing 5nm manufacturing node within the next couple of years. A smaller processing node will allow AMD to pack more transistors closer to each other, leading to improved computing performance and lower power consumption.\nTherefore, AMD can remain ahead of Intel once it makes the transition to a smaller 5nm process node. Chipzilla is unlikely to regain its technology lead until the launch of its own 5nm process, the timeline for which is unknown right now. As it turns out, AMD's foundry partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is reportedly working to increase the production capacity of 5nm chips. That should bode well for AMD, as it is expected to become TSMC's second-largest customer and enjoy stronger bargaining power.\nAdditionally, AMD can be expected to keep up the pressure on Intel in the data center space after the launch of its latest EPYC server processors. AMD claims that the latest EPYC 7003 processors based on the 7nm process are twice as fast as Intel's competing chips. Third-party tests conducted by AnandTech indicate the same.\nMore importantly, AMD has a solid lineup of clients using the latest EPYC server processors. They include Amazon, Cisco, Dell Technologies, Alphabet's Google, Microsoft, Lenovo, and Tencent. So it won't be surprising to see AMD log big gains in the data center market in both the short and the long run.\nBuy when others are fearful\nAMD stock has become cheaper thanks to the recent pullback, trading at 38 times trailing earnings. That's really cheap compared to last year's average trailing earnings multiple of 124, thanks to the sharp spike in the company's earnings and a lower share price. The good news is that AMD's bottom-line growth is here to stay thanks to a variety of catalysts, and it may not be long before the stock price follows suit.\nAMD EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts\nAll of this makes AMD a growth stock worth buying right now, as it continues to remain in a solid position against Intel and has additional growth drivers in the bag.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Yep... U still believe in AMD","text":"Yep... U still believe in AMD","html":"Yep... U still believe in AMD"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174752907,"gmtCreate":1627144259409,"gmtModify":1703484779261,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"QE lo","listText":"QE lo","text":"QE lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174752907","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160926090,"gmtCreate":1623770014210,"gmtModify":1703818931269,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmh… interesting","listText":"Mmh… interesting","text":"Mmh… interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160926090","repostId":"1149978895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149978895","pubTimestamp":1623768566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149978895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149978895","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其","content":"<blockquote>\n 石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n</blockquote>\n<p>据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。<b>这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。</b></p>\n<p>此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。<b>有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。</b></p>\n<p>不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。</p>\n<p>壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。</p>\n<p>去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。<b>美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。</b></p>\n<p>今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。</p>\n<p>上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。</p>\n<p><b>包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。</b></p>\n<p>其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。</p>\n<p>二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。</p>\n<p>行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">高露洁</a>能源,以减少其债务。</p>\n<p>能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。</p>\n<p>交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。<b>由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n壳牌考虑出售美国最大油田100亿美元股份,打的是什么牌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a261ad569fd59235933d32965a76983","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76075","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149978895","content_text":"石油巨头壳牌考虑出售价值高达100亿美元的油田股份,会不会影响石油价格呢?\n\n据知情人士透露,石油巨头荷兰皇家壳牌公司正在审查其在美国最大油田的持有股份,并考虑出售该股份。这是因为壳牌公司希望专注于其利润最高的石油和天然气产业并增加其低碳投资。\n此次出售可能是壳牌在二叠纪盆地(主要位于德克萨斯州)约26万英亩(105200公顷)的部分或全部土地。有不愿透露姓名的消息人士称,会谈是私下进行的,所持股份价值可能高达100亿美元。\n不过CNBC已单独确认,本次出售并不紧急,目前正在与买家或潜在多个买家进行谈判。其中一些涉及的土地是与西方石油公司(Occidental)合资企业的一部分。壳牌对此拒绝评价。\n壳牌是世界上最大的石油公司之一,而石油公司正受到来自投资者的压力,他们要求减少化石燃料投资,以阻止碳排放导致的全球气候变化。壳牌、BP Plc和道达尔集团已承诺通过增加对可再生能源的投资来降低碳排放,同时剥离一些石油和天然气股份。\n去年美国大型的页岩油田的兼并现象激增,因为一些公司试图增加持股,而另一些公司则希望利用石油价格上涨的机会出售股份。美国石油期货今年上涨49%,每桶近72美元,是2020年低点的两倍多。这是因为随着疫情的消退,石油需求恢复。\n今年早些时候,壳牌制定了石油行业最具有雄心的气候战略之一,其目标是到2023年将其产品的碳强度至少降低6%,到2030年降低20%,到2035年降低45%,到2050年降低100%,以上目标以2016年的水平为基准。然而,荷兰一家法院上个月表示,壳牌的行动还不够,命令其到2030年将排放量从2019年的水平降低45%。\n上个月,国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示,如果消费者希望达到联合国支持的旨在限制全球变暖的目标,则应立即停止对新化石燃料项目的投资。\n包括壳牌在内的石油巨头表示,为了满足对汽车燃料和化学品的需求,未来几年全球将需要大量新的石油和天然气投资。\n其网站显示,壳牌在二叠纪的石油和天然气产量在2020年平均日产19.3万桶油,约占其当年总产量的6%。\n二叠纪每天大约生产450万桶石油,约占美国总产量的40%。\n行业专家表示,为了剥离不需要的资产并筹集现金,雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和其他公司希望今年进行更多的交易。上周,西方石油公司同意以5.08亿美元的价格将其部分二叠纪资产出售给高露洁能源,以减少其债务。\n能源研究机构Enverus的并购分析师安德鲁·迪特马尔(Andrew Dittmar)表示,今年大多数二叠纪交易的成交价在每英亩7000美元至12000美元之间。\n交易活动的增加推高了交易价格。4月,私人持有的DoublePoint Energy以每英亩约40000美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources,这是自2014-2016年生产商抢占二叠纪地区以来的最高水平。\n包括KKR旗下的独立能源公司在内的几家规模较小的页岩公司今年已经合并。由于对石油公司IPO缺乏兴趣,私募股权所有者希望在等待投资者对新发股票感兴趣的同时,石油公司可以增加石油产量。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"What they are thinking","text":"What they are thinking","html":"What they are thinking"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134614301,"gmtCreate":1622221255703,"gmtModify":1704181868867,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of coz","listText":"Of coz","text":"Of coz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134614301","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198325118,"gmtCreate":1620930592034,"gmtModify":1704350680936,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198325118","repostId":"1162795644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Hv to observe further then","text":"Hv to observe further then","html":"Hv to observe further then"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343403218,"gmtCreate":1617741856834,"gmtModify":1704702445207,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Try to avoid","listText":"Try to avoid","text":"Try to avoid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343403218","repostId":"1177008478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177008478","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617719498,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177008478?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Archegos爆仓概念股涨幅扩大,跟谁学涨超14%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177008478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月6日,Archegos爆仓风波相关股票涨幅扩大,跟谁学涨超14%,爱奇艺涨超8%,唯品会涨超6%,腾讯音乐涨超5%,探索传播涨超4%。","content":"<p>4月6日,Archegos爆仓风波相关股票涨幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>涨超14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超5%,探索传播涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387a087a553164f05da8f0eec39ee687\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Archegos爆仓概念股涨幅扩大,跟谁学涨超14%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArchegos爆仓概念股涨幅扩大,跟谁学涨超14%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 22:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月6日,Archegos爆仓风波相关股票涨幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>涨超14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超5%,探索传播涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387a087a553164f05da8f0eec39ee687\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528f1b5f95c1aa85d740d858963e7e8f","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺","VIPS":"唯品会","TME":"腾讯音乐","DISCA":"探索传播"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177008478","content_text":"4月6日,Archegos爆仓风波相关股票涨幅扩大,跟谁学涨超14%,爱奇艺涨超8%,唯品会涨超6%,腾讯音乐涨超5%,探索传播涨超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Agree. Not my type","text":"Agree. Not my type","html":"Agree. Not my type"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359305494,"gmtCreate":1616335671318,"gmtModify":1704792971834,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But the SLR news will post some impact too","listText":"But the SLR news will post some impact too","text":"But the SLR news will post some impact too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359305494","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p>\n<p>In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p>\n<p>“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p>\n<p>Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p>\n<p>The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p>\n<p>With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p>\n<p>In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p>\n<p>“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p>\n<p>“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p>\n<p>The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p>\n<p>Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 23:12 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327634768,"gmtCreate":1616079529954,"gmtModify":1704790734266,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well... market need time to access this new stock","listText":"Well... market need time to access this new stock","text":"Well... market need time to access this new stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327634768","repostId":"1122053265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122053265","pubTimestamp":1616078024,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122053265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Olo fell more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122053265","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(March 18) Olo fell more than 10% on the first day after IPO.\n\nOlo Inc. , which makes software to he","content":"<p>(March 18) Olo fell more than 10% on the first day after IPO.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b25f9fb26beb83b3fa173df2771056\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"458\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4681c0a4d52ce0565554bc7edab87b\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"458\"></p>\n<p>Olo Inc. , which makes software to help restaurants handle online orders, saw its stock soar Wednesday following a hotinitial public offering thatvalued the firm at some $3.6B.</p>\n<p>Olo rose to as high as $35 intraday, up 40% from its $25 IPO price. Shares later pulled back some, but still closed at $34.75, up 39% on the session.</p>\n<p>Olo provides Software as a Service (or \"SAAS\") to eateries to help with online ordering, pickup and delivery.</p>\n<p>The company’s 400+ restaurant clients include such well-known chains as Chili’s, Five Guys, Shake Shack(NYSE:SHAK), Sweetgreen and Wingstop(NASDAQ:WING).</p>\n<p>Shake Shack founder Daniel Meyer owns about 1.1% of Olo’s Class B shares and sits on the company’s board.</p>\n<p>Olo raised $450M by selling 18M shares at $25 apiece. The IPO priced above its expected $20-$22 range.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Olo fell more than 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOlo fell more than 10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 22:33 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673712-restaurant-software-firm-olo-pops-after-450-million-dollar-ipo><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 18) Olo fell more than 10% on the first day after IPO.\n\nOlo Inc. , which makes software to help restaurants handle online orders, saw its stock soar Wednesday following a hotinitial public ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673712-restaurant-software-firm-olo-pops-after-450-million-dollar-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OLO":"PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ET"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673712-restaurant-software-firm-olo-pops-after-450-million-dollar-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1122053265","content_text":"(March 18) Olo fell more than 10% on the first day after IPO.\n\nOlo Inc. , which makes software to help restaurants handle online orders, saw its stock soar Wednesday following a hotinitial public offering thatvalued the firm at some $3.6B.\nOlo rose to as high as $35 intraday, up 40% from its $25 IPO price. Shares later pulled back some, but still closed at $34.75, up 39% on the session.\nOlo provides Software as a Service (or \"SAAS\") to eateries to help with online ordering, pickup and delivery.\nThe company’s 400+ restaurant clients include such well-known chains as Chili’s, Five Guys, Shake Shack(NYSE:SHAK), Sweetgreen and Wingstop(NASDAQ:WING).\nShake Shack founder Daniel Meyer owns about 1.1% of Olo’s Class B shares and sits on the company’s board.\nOlo raised $450M by selling 18M shares at $25 apiece. The IPO priced above its expected $20-$22 range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Ya... Just 2nd day. Be patience","text":"Ya... Just 2nd day. Be patience","html":"Ya... Just 2nd day. Be patience"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188302584,"gmtCreate":1623420817948,"gmtModify":1704203238739,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2022","listText":"2022","text":"2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188302584","repostId":"1104096254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104096254","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623401262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104096254?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104096254","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。\n\n但是,协","content":"<p>上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531f18349f426a4f0493645dd7ec3657\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。</p>\n<p>不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。</p>\n<p>反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。</p>\n<p>Jefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:</p>\n<p>“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”</p>\n<p>需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。</p>\n<p>这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。</p>\n<p>那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?</p>\n<p>今年早些时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。</p>\n<p>目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。</p>\n<p>但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。</p>\n<p>\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。</p>\n<p>由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。</p>\n<p>对于像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。</p>\n<p>制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。</p>\n<p>高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f966cd05c6d82c619e66e17ae40aa65e\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"904\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>数据来源:高盛</span></p>\n<p>以半导体设计公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。</p>\n<p> “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。</p>\n<p>如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。</p>\n<p>此外,科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EA\">电子艺界</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和eBay,以及支付巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>,制药巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>和医疗器械制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COO\">库珀医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SYK\">史赛克</a>等也榜上有名。</p>\n<p>投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15%的全球最低公司税率对股市意味着什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-11 16:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531f18349f426a4f0493645dd7ec3657\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。</p>\n<p>不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。</p>\n<p>反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。</p>\n<p>Jefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:</p>\n<p>“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”</p>\n<p>需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。</p>\n<p>这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。</p>\n<p>那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?</p>\n<p>今年早些时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。</p>\n<p>目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。</p>\n<p>但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。</p>\n<p>\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。</p>\n<p>由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。</p>\n<p>对于像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。</p>\n<p>制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。</p>\n<p>高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f966cd05c6d82c619e66e17ae40aa65e\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"904\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>数据来源:高盛</span></p>\n<p>以半导体设计公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。</p>\n<p> “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。</p>\n<p>如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。</p>\n<p>此外,科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EA\">电子艺界</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和eBay,以及支付巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>,制药巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>和医疗器械制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COO\">库珀医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SYK\">史赛克</a>等也榜上有名。</p>\n<p>投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1daa770db96139d9a5c7284b0b66f9","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","EA":"艺电","ILMN":"Illumina",".DJI":"道琼斯","ORCL":"甲骨文","V":"Visa","AAPL":"苹果","EBAY":"eBay",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104096254","content_text":"上周末,七国集团(G7)就跨国公司纳税规则达成协议,同意向跨国公司征收至少15%的企业税。但这并不是说要马上实施,对大多数公司来说,短期它的影响是有限的,甚至在一段时间内基本感觉不到影响。\n\n但是,协议中的两项措施——一种按照企业经营地对企业征税的制度,以及15%的最低企业税率——最终会使跨国公司更难将收入转移到避税天堂,从而减少纳税。\n不过,鉴于15%的利率相对较低,还有大量细节有待了解,因此直接影响不会很大。不过,从各国争相以低税率吸引跨国公司到要收15%最低税率的转变,可能意味着未来公司整体纳税额将上升。\n反过来说,更高的公司税通常会拖累市场,因为它们侵蚀了公司的收益。不过,投资者应该了解美国财政部长耶伦与加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国达成的全球一揽子计划。接下来,这项协议将提交20国集团(G20)以及由经合组织(OECD)召集的137个国家联盟。\nJefferies策略师Sean Darby分析了G7协议:\n“首先,跨国公司将在其经营所在的每个国家支付至少15%的全球最低公司税率,”他写道,“其次,……税收将适用于任何利润率不低于10%的全球性公司。此后,上述利润的20%将在其经营所在的国家/地区分配和征税。”\n需要明确的是,G7提案是一项国际协议,代表着各国在处理跨国公司税收方面向前迈出了一大步。但各国有自己的税法,立法者需要数年时间来起草、谈判和通过——而且最后看起来可能与G7的提案大相径庭。例如,美国共和党目前就反对提高公司税。\n这些国家需要通过立法来执行七国集团协议,这也解释了为什么不会马上感受到上周末提案的影响。然后, 再加上15%的最低公司税率, 这并不是那么高。\n那15%的最低税率对美股有何影响?\n今年早些时候,高盛的大卫·科斯汀 (David Kostin) 计算得出,15%的最低税率将对标普500指数2022年的每股收益造成1美元的拖累。与民主党政策制定者目前设想的其他公司税上调相比,这并不算多。\n目前美国的企业所得税税率为21%,低于2017年共和党领导国会时的35%。将法定公司税率从21%提高到28%——介于当前税率和2018年之前的税率之间——将使该指数明年每股203美元的预期收益减少8美元。根据科斯汀的计算,拜登政府的另外两项提案,即全球无形低税收收入率翻倍至21%和额外的社会保障工资税,如果获得通过,每项提案都可能在2022年吃掉标普500指数收益中的5美元。\n但是,根据Gavekal的两位分析师估计,如果全球就最低税率15%达成的协议,其影响将比仅仅从标普500指数收益中减去一美元更为广泛——如果它能够将国际竞争抛在后面并鼓励各国全面提高公司税率研究。\n\"通过克服长期以来对国家税收主权的偏见,支持超越国家层面的合作,该协议减少了国际税收竞争,\"Yanmei Xie和Udith Sikand写道。从长远来看,这只会意味着更高的有效公司税率。\n由于无形资产而拥有大量收入的公司将受到七国集团提案的影响最大。Jefferies 的Darby表示,这尤其针对大型互联网公司和制药公司。\n对于像Facebook或谷歌母公司Alphabet这样提供数字服务的公司来说,目前很容易在爱尔兰这样的低税收管辖区注册公司总部,并将其海外利润转移到那里。\n制药公司也是如此,公司在一个国家注册专利,但在全球销售药品。这与一家在工厂雇佣工人并在该国销售实物的制造公司形成鲜明对比, 后者无法采取这种避税策略。\n高盛的Kostin对标普500指数成分股进行了筛选,提取出30家公司,这些公司的收入至少有50%来自美国以外,且外国实际税率低于15%,它们绝大多数集中在科技或医疗保健行业。\n \n数据来源:高盛\n以半导体设计公司英伟达为例。根据Kostin的估计,该公司67%的收入来自国外,并为这些利润缴纳4%的有效税率。根据该公司的数据,英伟达最近一个财年的整体有效税率为1.7%,而其净利润率为26%。它为超过43亿美元的净收入缴纳了7700万美元的税款。\n “我们2021和2020财年的有效税率低于美国21%的法定税率,这主要是因为在英属维尔京群岛、以色列和香港等司法管辖区赚取的收入,其税率低于美国法定税率,还有美国联邦研究税收抵免的承认以及与股票薪酬相关的超额税收优惠,”英伟达在其最新的年度报告中写道。\n如果按照G7的提议,英伟达的纳税将会上升,允许各国对公司在其境内开展的业务征收更高的税率,而不管它最终将这些利润通过哪个外国实体。\n此外,科技巨头苹果,电子艺界,Adobe,甲骨文和eBay,以及支付巨头Visa,制药巨头安进和医疗器械制造商库珀医疗、爱德华兹和史赛克等也榜上有名。\n投资者不太可能根据G7的最新举措对他们的股票进行取舍。但要注意这些可能只是即将出台的更严厉公司税收措施的前兆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354979540,"gmtCreate":1617123660480,"gmtModify":1704696221360,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why 1 day drop, next day up","listText":"Why 1 day drop, next day up","text":"Why 1 day drop, next day up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354979540","repostId":"1146030833","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146030833","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617113703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146030833?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】部分明星中概股走强,唯品会涨超11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146030833","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月30日,部分明星中概股盘中走强,唯品会涨超11%,跟谁学涨超7%,爱奇艺涨超6%,百度涨超5%,哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车、达达集团涨超3%。","content":"<p>3月30日,部分明星中概股盘中走强,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc07e192da2d0db42baee5d2b0e7281\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】部分明星中概股走强,唯品会涨超11%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】部分明星中概股走强,唯品会涨超11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-30 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月30日,部分明星中概股盘中走强,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc07e192da2d0db42baee5d2b0e7281\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"VIPS":"唯品会","IQ":"爱奇艺","BIDU":"百度","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146030833","content_text":"3月30日,部分明星中概股盘中走强,唯品会涨超11%,跟谁学涨超7%,爱奇艺涨超6%,百度涨超5%,哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车、达达集团涨超3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"No clue at all... Are you playing?","text":"No clue at all... Are you playing?","html":"No clue at all... Are you playing?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350146766,"gmtCreate":1616169613355,"gmtModify":1704791885905,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Serious? Then is bad for bank","listText":"Serious? Then is bad for bank","text":"Serious? Then is bad for bank","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350146766","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.</blockquote><p>The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b></blockquote><p>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><blockquote><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b></blockquote><p>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...</blockquote><p>While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p>* * *</p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* * *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"That's y today xlf sector drop","text":"That's y today xlf sector drop","html":"That's y today xlf sector drop"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883388378,"gmtCreate":1631202362594,"gmtModify":1676530496386,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883388378","repostId":"1173243012","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173243012","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631201508,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173243012?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 23:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"【异动】黑莓涨超6%,公司在美国提交两项专利申请","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173243012","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","content":"<p>9月9日,黑莓盘中涨超6%,此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请,分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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