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04-30

LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?

Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer

02-01

Like that say means got chance to cheong le. Attack.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-11-13

Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.

Sea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)

2023-08-18

To normalise at $150.

2023-07-28

Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol

Wall Street Closes Down, Dow Snaps Longest Winning Streak Since 1987

2023-07-24

Better crash it. Cheong ah.

Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for July 26

2023-05-23

Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.

Tesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)

2023-03-21

Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-20

Let's mark their words. WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-20

Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-16

Confirmed more to come.

72 Hours in Washington: How the Frenzied SVB Rescue Took Shape

2023-02-22

Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.

Another Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market

2023-02-21

Let's short it now.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-01-24

I will all in now.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-01-18

Means gonna dip soon?

Why Did Tesla Stock Rally Today? Price Cuts Could Have Some Upside

2022-12-28

Run while you have chance.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-27

Close eyes short all the way.

Tesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Means Fed is good for nothing?","listText":"LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?","text":"LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300907238936768","repostId":"2431394980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2431394980","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1714477589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2431394980?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-30 19:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431394980","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels \"do nothing, and everything will be done\" could sum up the Federal Reserve's latest approach to interest-rate policy.Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.The Fed's rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed's expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and \"bumpy\" fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of r","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels &#34;do nothing, and everything will be done&#34; could sum up the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest approach to interest-rate policy.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.</p><p>Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.</p><p>With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed&#39;s policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here&#39;s what to watch:</p><h2 id=\"id_1498624758\">The inflation setback</h2><p>Since officials&#39; meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.</p><p>In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.</p><p>Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had &#34;clearly not given us greater confidence&#34; that inflation would continue declining to 2% &#34;and instead indicate that it&#39;s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58ac79df25e9e0cc51876a3d5a5ba665\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed&#39;s expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and &#34;bumpy&#34; fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.</p><p>A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a &#34;bumpy&#34; path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.</p><h2 id=\"id_2135524953\">Rate policy remains &#34;well-positioned&#34;</h2><p>Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.</p><p>Even though officials won&#39;t submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday&#39;s meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.</p><p>At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.</p><p>&#34;Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,&#34; Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c677b4f92d37f945481eacde52c31cb2\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy&#39;s momentum.</p><p>If inflation stays firm &#34;that is what they will want to see, ultimately, &#34; said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.</p><h2 id=\"id_1610720027\">Low risks of a hawkish pivot</h2><p>The difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the &#34;if/then&#34; statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don&#39;t anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.</p><p>To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.</p><p>But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.</p><p>A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.</p><h2 id=\"id_2652152856\">The balance sheet</h2><p>Fed officials have said they could announce &#34;fairly soon&#34; their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.</p><p>At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to &#34;run off&#34; its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.</p><p>Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.</p><p>At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff &#34;by roughly half.&#34; Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn&#39;t change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.</p><p>The latest changes aren&#39;t related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.</p><p>The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don&#39;t know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-30 19:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels &#34;do nothing, and everything will be done&#34; could sum up the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest approach to interest-rate policy.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.</p><p>Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.</p><p>With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed&#39;s policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here&#39;s what to watch:</p><h2 id=\"id_1498624758\">The inflation setback</h2><p>Since officials&#39; meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.</p><p>In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.</p><p>Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had &#34;clearly not given us greater confidence&#34; that inflation would continue declining to 2% &#34;and instead indicate that it&#39;s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58ac79df25e9e0cc51876a3d5a5ba665\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed&#39;s expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and &#34;bumpy&#34; fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.</p><p>A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a &#34;bumpy&#34; path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.</p><h2 id=\"id_2135524953\">Rate policy remains &#34;well-positioned&#34;</h2><p>Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.</p><p>Even though officials won&#39;t submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday&#39;s meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.</p><p>At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.</p><p>&#34;Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,&#34; Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c677b4f92d37f945481eacde52c31cb2\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy&#39;s momentum.</p><p>If inflation stays firm &#34;that is what they will want to see, ultimately, &#34; said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.</p><h2 id=\"id_1610720027\">Low risks of a hawkish pivot</h2><p>The difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the &#34;if/then&#34; statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don&#39;t anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.</p><p>To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.</p><p>But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.</p><p>A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.</p><h2 id=\"id_2652152856\">The balance sheet</h2><p>Fed officials have said they could announce &#34;fairly soon&#34; their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.</p><p>At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to &#34;run off&#34; its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.</p><p>Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.</p><p>At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff &#34;by roughly half.&#34; Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn&#39;t change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.</p><p>The latest changes aren&#39;t related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.</p><p>The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don&#39;t know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1215":"特殊消费者服务",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2431394980","content_text":"By Nick TimiraosAn ancient Chinese proverb that counsels \"do nothing, and everything will be done\" could sum up the Federal Reserve's latest approach to interest-rate policy.Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed's policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here's what to watch:The inflation setbackSince officials' meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had \"clearly not given us greater confidence\" that inflation would continue declining to 2% \"and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.\"The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.The Fed's rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed's expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and \"bumpy\" fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a \"bumpy\" path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.Rate policy remains \"well-positioned\"Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.Even though officials won't submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday's meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.\"Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,\" Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy's momentum.If inflation stays firm \"that is what they will want to see, ultimately, \" said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.Low risks of a hawkish pivotThe difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the \"if/then\" statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don't anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.The balance sheetFed officials have said they could announce \"fairly soon\" their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to \"run off\" its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff \"by roughly half.\" Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn't change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.The latest changes aren't related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don't know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":269443518882048,"gmtCreate":1706798951413,"gmtModify":1706798955865,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le.&nbsp; Attack.","listText":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le.&nbsp; Attack.","text":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le. Attack.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/269443518882048","repostId":"2407307245","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":240928063320176,"gmtCreate":1699839292213,"gmtModify":1699839296923,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","listText":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","text":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/240928063320176","repostId":"2382474347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2382474347","pubTimestamp":1699837856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2382474347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-13 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2382474347","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sea Limited&#39;s upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok&#39;s significant competitive threat.</p></li><li><p>Analysts will also assess Shopee&#39;s Singles&#39; Day sales momentum as Southeast Asia&#39;s growth continues to slow.</p></li><li><p>Notwithstanding the recent respite as TikTok&#39;s ambitions stalled in Indonesia, the battle is still ongoing in other markets. Shopee could find it increasingly challenging to fend off TikTok&#39;s threat.</p></li><li><p>SE is still valued at a premium, notwithstanding its spectacular collapse. However, investors likely aren&#39;t keen on unsustainable spending as the &#34;free&#34; money era is over.</p></li><li><p>I argue why savvy investors must know when it&#39;s time to fold, as TikTok&#39;s threat is likely here to stay. SE could be dead money at best for a long time.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd10451e91a7f82b95ea9e296a739672\" alt=\"kokkai\" title=\"kokkai\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>kokkai</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3916398362\">TikTok&#39;s Threat Not Fully Extinguished</h2><p>Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is scheduled to report its third-quarter or FQ3 earnings release on November 14. Keen investors should recall the &#34;historic tumble&#34; following the company&#39;s stunning FQ2 release as SE re-tested a critical support level.</p><p>I&#39;m pleased to highlight to holders that SE sellers have failed to regain sufficient momentum to compel it down further. Despite that, the lack of sustained buying momentum from dip buyers suggests investors are likely expecting more assurances from management at its upcoming earnings conference.</p><p>Analysts will also be keen to assess Shopee&#39;s (e-commerce unit) Singles&#39; Day sales momentum as the critical shopping festival comes to an end. Chinese e-commerce retailers have focused on value-conscious consumers to drive volume this year, highlighting the ongoing challenges of bolstering consumer spending in China&#39;s economy.</p><p>I believe Sea Limited and its Southeast Asian peers (Shopee&#39;s most crucial e-commerce market) aren&#39;t immune to the macroeconomic and inflation headwinds. Accordingly, it was reported recently that &#34;Southeast Asia&#39;s internet economy is experiencing its slowest growth on record in 2023.&#34; As such, the region&#39;s e-commerce spending growth estimates have been reduced to 13% from last year&#39;s 20% growth. The reduction in estimates has raised fears of more intense competition and potentially lower structural growth in the medium term.</p><p>As such, investors must be wary of the previous fast-growth internet companies like Sea Limited, which relied on unsustainable consumer subsidies to gain market share rapidly. On that matter of sustainability, investors&#39; hugely negative reaction in Q2 largely resulted from the company&#39;s return to potentially unsustainable spending it embarked on in the years when money was cheap.</p><p>However, that era is expected to be well and truly over as interest rates surge, possibly normalizing at much higher levels. Notwithstanding its market share leadership, Shopee was threatened by TikTok&#39;s (BDNCE) attempt to disrupt its business model with its social commerce-driven e-commerce strategy.</p><p>Sea Limited investors received a respite from the Indonesian government in early October, as Indonesia swiftly banned the ability of TikTok and their social media peers to combine direct e-commerce payments on their platforms. The move was intended to protect Indonesia&#39;s micro, small, and medium enterprises, or MSMEs, as they dealt with the disruption from TikTok&#39;s merchants.</p><p>Analysts lauded the move as helping to lower the impetus for TikTok to chip away at the market leadership of Sea Limited and its e-commerce peers. As a result, the need for sustained shipping subsidies in Shopee&#39;s most crucial market could be reduced. However, it&#39;s critical to note that the Indonesian market represented about 25% of its total GMV. Excluding Indonesia, the region likely accounted for 40% of Shopee&#39;s total GMV, suggesting investors shouldn&#39;t rejoice just yet.</p><p>TikTok&#39;s growing ambitions in the US suggest that the company isn&#39;t afraid to tackle e-commerce behemoth Amazon (AMZN) in its most important market. Its ability to drive e-commerce spending through its social media network moat is a significant competitive advantage that Shoppe could find very hard to defend against. I must recognize that TikTok is a formidable competitor supported by a profitable parent, ByteDance, who seems determined to disrupt what used to be the disruptor in the region: Shopee.</p><h2 id=\"id_4277693492\">Is SE Stock A Buy?</h2><p>Sea Limited investors could point out that the company is not just about Shopee. Its gaming arm and its fintech segment are also crucial growth drivers. However, it&#39;s essential to recognize that Shopee is expected to remain the company&#39;s most important growth driver in the short- and medium-term. With SE valued as a growth stock (assigned an &#34;A-&#34; growth grade and a &#34;D&#34; valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant), the company needs a coherent and sustainable strategy to fend off TikTok&#39;s threat.</p><p>However, I&#39;m not sure what Sea Limited could muster as it&#39;s clear that investors no longer fancy massive spending to justify its market share gains. In other words, investors want Sea Limited to move away from those subsidies. However, TikTok&#39;s network effect moat has been built up with such ferocity and determination that it has a sustainable advantage that Sea Limited could find incredibly challenging to defend against.</p><p>While I&#39;m assured that SE wasn&#39;t battered below the $35 level decisively after its August re-test, I&#39;ve much less confidence in the company&#39;s ability to recover SE&#39;s malaise from here. In a high-interest rate environment, with a determined and capable competitor like TikTok, Shopee is looking increasingly more like the disrupted in time to come. With SE still valued at a premium, it could be dead money at best (in a consolidation zone). I am looking to cut my exposure substantially as I intend to rotate my funds to higher-quality moaty stocks.</p><p>Remember, we aren&#39;t likely heading back to the era of &#34;free&#34; money, which was the foundation of Shopee&#39;s unsustainable spending.</p><p><em>Rating: Downgraded to Hold.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-13 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2382474347","content_text":"Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as Southeast Asia's growth continues to slow.Notwithstanding the recent respite as TikTok's ambitions stalled in Indonesia, the battle is still ongoing in other markets. Shopee could find it increasingly challenging to fend off TikTok's threat.SE is still valued at a premium, notwithstanding its spectacular collapse. However, investors likely aren't keen on unsustainable spending as the \"free\" money era is over.I argue why savvy investors must know when it's time to fold, as TikTok's threat is likely here to stay. SE could be dead money at best for a long time.kokkaiTikTok's Threat Not Fully ExtinguishedSea Limited (NYSE:SE) is scheduled to report its third-quarter or FQ3 earnings release on November 14. Keen investors should recall the \"historic tumble\" following the company's stunning FQ2 release as SE re-tested a critical support level.I'm pleased to highlight to holders that SE sellers have failed to regain sufficient momentum to compel it down further. Despite that, the lack of sustained buying momentum from dip buyers suggests investors are likely expecting more assurances from management at its upcoming earnings conference.Analysts will also be keen to assess Shopee's (e-commerce unit) Singles' Day sales momentum as the critical shopping festival comes to an end. Chinese e-commerce retailers have focused on value-conscious consumers to drive volume this year, highlighting the ongoing challenges of bolstering consumer spending in China's economy.I believe Sea Limited and its Southeast Asian peers (Shopee's most crucial e-commerce market) aren't immune to the macroeconomic and inflation headwinds. Accordingly, it was reported recently that \"Southeast Asia's internet economy is experiencing its slowest growth on record in 2023.\" As such, the region's e-commerce spending growth estimates have been reduced to 13% from last year's 20% growth. The reduction in estimates has raised fears of more intense competition and potentially lower structural growth in the medium term.As such, investors must be wary of the previous fast-growth internet companies like Sea Limited, which relied on unsustainable consumer subsidies to gain market share rapidly. On that matter of sustainability, investors' hugely negative reaction in Q2 largely resulted from the company's return to potentially unsustainable spending it embarked on in the years when money was cheap.However, that era is expected to be well and truly over as interest rates surge, possibly normalizing at much higher levels. Notwithstanding its market share leadership, Shopee was threatened by TikTok's (BDNCE) attempt to disrupt its business model with its social commerce-driven e-commerce strategy.Sea Limited investors received a respite from the Indonesian government in early October, as Indonesia swiftly banned the ability of TikTok and their social media peers to combine direct e-commerce payments on their platforms. The move was intended to protect Indonesia's micro, small, and medium enterprises, or MSMEs, as they dealt with the disruption from TikTok's merchants.Analysts lauded the move as helping to lower the impetus for TikTok to chip away at the market leadership of Sea Limited and its e-commerce peers. As a result, the need for sustained shipping subsidies in Shopee's most crucial market could be reduced. However, it's critical to note that the Indonesian market represented about 25% of its total GMV. Excluding Indonesia, the region likely accounted for 40% of Shopee's total GMV, suggesting investors shouldn't rejoice just yet.TikTok's growing ambitions in the US suggest that the company isn't afraid to tackle e-commerce behemoth Amazon (AMZN) in its most important market. Its ability to drive e-commerce spending through its social media network moat is a significant competitive advantage that Shoppe could find very hard to defend against. I must recognize that TikTok is a formidable competitor supported by a profitable parent, ByteDance, who seems determined to disrupt what used to be the disruptor in the region: Shopee.Is SE Stock A Buy?Sea Limited investors could point out that the company is not just about Shopee. Its gaming arm and its fintech segment are also crucial growth drivers. However, it's essential to recognize that Shopee is expected to remain the company's most important growth driver in the short- and medium-term. With SE valued as a growth stock (assigned an \"A-\" growth grade and a \"D\" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant), the company needs a coherent and sustainable strategy to fend off TikTok's threat.However, I'm not sure what Sea Limited could muster as it's clear that investors no longer fancy massive spending to justify its market share gains. In other words, investors want Sea Limited to move away from those subsidies. However, TikTok's network effect moat has been built up with such ferocity and determination that it has a sustainable advantage that Sea Limited could find incredibly challenging to defend against.While I'm assured that SE wasn't battered below the $35 level decisively after its August re-test, I've much less confidence in the company's ability to recover SE's malaise from here. In a high-interest rate environment, with a determined and capable competitor like TikTok, Shopee is looking increasingly more like the disrupted in time to come. With SE still valued at a premium, it could be dead money at best (in a consolidation zone). I am looking to cut my exposure substantially as I intend to rotate my funds to higher-quality moaty stocks.Remember, we aren't likely heading back to the era of \"free\" money, which was the foundation of Shopee's unsustainable spending.Rating: Downgraded to Hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":210219292467288,"gmtCreate":1692345387518,"gmtModify":1692345392546,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To normalise at $150.","listText":"To normalise at $150.","text":"To normalise at $150.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210219292467288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":202623067947096,"gmtCreate":1690507056356,"gmtModify":1690507060303,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","listText":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","text":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202623067947096","repostId":"2354525277","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2354525277","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1690498951,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2354525277?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-28 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Closes Down, Dow Snaps Longest Winning Streak Since 1987","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354525277","media":"Reuters","summary":"Meta jumps on upbeat Q3 sales outlookU.S. Q2 advance GDP at 2.4% vs estimated 1.8%BOJ may tweak yield capIndexes: Dow down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.64%, Nasdaq down 0.55%U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursd","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Meta jumps on upbeat Q3 sales outlook</p></li><li><p>U.S. Q2 advance GDP at 2.4% vs estimated 1.8%</p></li><li><p>BOJ may tweak yield cap</p></li><li><p>Indexes: Dow down 0.67%, S&amp;P 500 down 0.64%, Nasdaq down 0.55%</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b892ce8a62002fd762bc97ac6d49d88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday after news that the Bank of Japan will allow long-term interest rates to rise sent U.S. yields higher, snapping the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987.</p><p>The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Reuters confirmed the central bank may make minor tweaks to extend the lifespan of its yield control policy.</p><p>Michael Green, chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management, said reports of the Bank of Japan&#39;s plans were the biggest driver behind Wall Street&#39;s performance on Thursday.</p><p>Higher rates in Japan pushed the U.S. 10-year yield over 4% and reduced the attractiveness of stocks.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 237.4 points, or 0.67%, to 35,282.72, the S&amp;P 500 lost 29.29 points, or 0.64%, to 4,537.46 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 77.18 points, or 0.55%, to 14,050.11.</p><p>On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Traders now only see a 20% chance that the Fed could surprise with a quarter-point increase in September.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that Fed staff are no longer forecasting a U.S. recession, but did not rule out another rate hike, saying the Fed would follow future economic data.</p><p>On Thursday, a Commerce Department report showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the latest quarter, with an advance gross domestic product reading of 2.4%, above the 1.8% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.</p><p>Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco, said the strong economic data earlier in the day also made the market reassess its positioning after the Federal Reserve slightly upgraded its growth outlook on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;The markets are looking at the increased potential for another Fed rate hike that had largely been priced out. Now it&#39;s being priced back in,&#34; said Rupert, who expects a Fed rate hike in September.</p><p>Meta gained 4.40% after it reported a jump in second-quarter advertising revenue, topping Wall Street financial targets.</p><p>Microsoft, which on Tuesday surpassed estimates for quarterly revenue and profit, closed down 2.09%, as it laid out an aggressive spending plan to meet demand for its new artificial intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">$(AI)$</a>-powered services.</p><p>Outsized gains in megacap growth stocks have helped the Nasdaq lead the charge on Wall Street so far this year, with the index rising about 34%.</p><p>EBay forecast third-quarter profit below market expectations as the e-commerce platform spent more to bolster categories such as auto parts, refurbished goods and collectibles, sending its shares down 10.53%.</p><p>Chipmakers Nvidia and Micron rose 0.99% and 5.48% respectively after Lam Research forecast upbeat quarterly sales. Shares of Lam also advanced.</p><p>Southwest Airlines tumbled 8.94% after the airline posted a dip in second-quarter profit, while Royal Caribbean surged after the cruise operator lifted its annual profit forecast. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time and kept the door open to further tightening.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Closes Down, Dow Snaps Longest Winning Streak Since 1987</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Closes Down, Dow Snaps Longest Winning Streak Since 1987\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-07-28 07:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Meta jumps on upbeat Q3 sales outlook</p></li><li><p>U.S. Q2 advance GDP at 2.4% vs estimated 1.8%</p></li><li><p>BOJ may tweak yield cap</p></li><li><p>Indexes: Dow down 0.67%, S&amp;P 500 down 0.64%, Nasdaq down 0.55%</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b892ce8a62002fd762bc97ac6d49d88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday after news that the Bank of Japan will allow long-term interest rates to rise sent U.S. yields higher, snapping the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987.</p><p>The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Reuters confirmed the central bank may make minor tweaks to extend the lifespan of its yield control policy.</p><p>Michael Green, chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management, said reports of the Bank of Japan&#39;s plans were the biggest driver behind Wall Street&#39;s performance on Thursday.</p><p>Higher rates in Japan pushed the U.S. 10-year yield over 4% and reduced the attractiveness of stocks.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 237.4 points, or 0.67%, to 35,282.72, the S&amp;P 500 lost 29.29 points, or 0.64%, to 4,537.46 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 77.18 points, or 0.55%, to 14,050.11.</p><p>On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Traders now only see a 20% chance that the Fed could surprise with a quarter-point increase in September.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that Fed staff are no longer forecasting a U.S. recession, but did not rule out another rate hike, saying the Fed would follow future economic data.</p><p>On Thursday, a Commerce Department report showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the latest quarter, with an advance gross domestic product reading of 2.4%, above the 1.8% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.</p><p>Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco, said the strong economic data earlier in the day also made the market reassess its positioning after the Federal Reserve slightly upgraded its growth outlook on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;The markets are looking at the increased potential for another Fed rate hike that had largely been priced out. Now it&#39;s being priced back in,&#34; said Rupert, who expects a Fed rate hike in September.</p><p>Meta gained 4.40% after it reported a jump in second-quarter advertising revenue, topping Wall Street financial targets.</p><p>Microsoft, which on Tuesday surpassed estimates for quarterly revenue and profit, closed down 2.09%, as it laid out an aggressive spending plan to meet demand for its new artificial intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">$(AI)$</a>-powered services.</p><p>Outsized gains in megacap growth stocks have helped the Nasdaq lead the charge on Wall Street so far this year, with the index rising about 34%.</p><p>EBay forecast third-quarter profit below market expectations as the e-commerce platform spent more to bolster categories such as auto parts, refurbished goods and collectibles, sending its shares down 10.53%.</p><p>Chipmakers Nvidia and Micron rose 0.99% and 5.48% respectively after Lam Research forecast upbeat quarterly sales. Shares of Lam also advanced.</p><p>Southwest Airlines tumbled 8.94% after the airline posted a dip in second-quarter profit, while Royal Caribbean surged after the cruise operator lifted its annual profit forecast. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time and kept the door open to further tightening.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2354525277","content_text":"Meta jumps on upbeat Q3 sales outlookU.S. Q2 advance GDP at 2.4% vs estimated 1.8%BOJ may tweak yield capIndexes: Dow down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.64%, Nasdaq down 0.55%U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday after news that the Bank of Japan will allow long-term interest rates to rise sent U.S. yields higher, snapping the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987.The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Reuters confirmed the central bank may make minor tweaks to extend the lifespan of its yield control policy.Michael Green, chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management, said reports of the Bank of Japan's plans were the biggest driver behind Wall Street's performance on Thursday.Higher rates in Japan pushed the U.S. 10-year yield over 4% and reduced the attractiveness of stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 237.4 points, or 0.67%, to 35,282.72, the S&P 500 lost 29.29 points, or 0.64%, to 4,537.46 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 77.18 points, or 0.55%, to 14,050.11.On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Traders now only see a 20% chance that the Fed could surprise with a quarter-point increase in September.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that Fed staff are no longer forecasting a U.S. recession, but did not rule out another rate hike, saying the Fed would follow future economic data.On Thursday, a Commerce Department report showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the latest quarter, with an advance gross domestic product reading of 2.4%, above the 1.8% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco, said the strong economic data earlier in the day also made the market reassess its positioning after the Federal Reserve slightly upgraded its growth outlook on Wednesday.\"The markets are looking at the increased potential for another Fed rate hike that had largely been priced out. Now it's being priced back in,\" said Rupert, who expects a Fed rate hike in September.Meta gained 4.40% after it reported a jump in second-quarter advertising revenue, topping Wall Street financial targets.Microsoft, which on Tuesday surpassed estimates for quarterly revenue and profit, closed down 2.09%, as it laid out an aggressive spending plan to meet demand for its new artificial intelligence $(AI)$-powered services.Outsized gains in megacap growth stocks have helped the Nasdaq lead the charge on Wall Street so far this year, with the index rising about 34%.EBay forecast third-quarter profit below market expectations as the e-commerce platform spent more to bolster categories such as auto parts, refurbished goods and collectibles, sending its shares down 10.53%.Chipmakers Nvidia and Micron rose 0.99% and 5.48% respectively after Lam Research forecast upbeat quarterly sales. Shares of Lam also advanced.Southwest Airlines tumbled 8.94% after the airline posted a dip in second-quarter profit, while Royal Caribbean surged after the cruise operator lifted its annual profit forecast. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time and kept the door open to further tightening.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":201369778434256,"gmtCreate":1690189923670,"gmtModify":1690189927269,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","listText":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","text":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/201369778434256","repostId":"1156173048","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156173048","pubTimestamp":1690187853,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156173048?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-24 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for July 26","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156173048","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"With the July FOMC meetings just days away, all eyes are on the Fed.The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to levy a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting.With inflation down to","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>With the July FOMC meetings just days away, all eyes are on the Fed.</p></li><li><p>The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to levy a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting.</p></li><li><p>With inflation down to just 3%, there is some debate over whether the central bank needs to continue risking the greater economy to lower prices even further.</p></li></ul><p>Stock market crash fears are elevated ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve rate-hike decision. Indeed, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for July 25 and July 26. The implications of the meeting for the health of the stock market and the economy could be significant.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Many are expecting the Fed to raise rates again after it opted to pause in June, ending a 10-month streak of consecutive rate hikes. However, the decision remains a point of controversy among economists. Some believe the concern of an eventual “credit event” coming in the wake of the regional banking crisis earlier this year merits additional hesitance.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That said, the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks the implied probability of changes to the Federal Funds rate as determined by 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing data, is pricing in a 99.8% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase in July. This would put the benchmark rate in the range of 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in nearly 22 years.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed has long maintained its monetary policy decisions are data-dependent. This time around the data says that the Fed is already succeeding at its job. In fact, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed easing annual inflation of just 3%. That’s well below May’s 4% level and just a third of the peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The cooler print across the board underscores that inflation is edging lower, but the core remains ‘sticky,’ although also cooling but not fast enough for the Fed to declare victory,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “The July 26 meeting will still see a rate hike, but unless core inflation comes down at a faster pace, July 26 won’t be a one and done.”</p><h2 id=\"id_88158909\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Stock Market Crash Concerns Loom Large</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Despite the Fed’s success thus far, the central bank’s 2% inflation goal remains a point of controversy. The doves believe the Fed has already raised rates enough to sufficiently lower prices, hopefully without incurring an economic recession. The hawks, meanwhile, feel the current strength of the economy justifies an even more aggressive route forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">With unemployment holding relatively steady between 3.4% and 3.7% from March to July of this year, and stocks in the midst of a bull market, it seems the Fed has plenty of runway to attempt to forcibly lower prices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even metrics like economic growth and U.S. wages are doing excellent. The country is managing to lower prices while avoiding greater economic turmoil. The question remains whether next week’s rate-hike decision will mark the final rate increase in 2023.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In that regard, not everyone’s on the same page. “I see two more 25-basis-point hikes in the target range over the four remaining meetings this year as necessary to keep inflation moving toward our target,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller earlier this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As mentioned, however, data rules the day. Should evidence suggest that inflation is already on track to 2% without further hikes, or that the economy is spiraling into a wider recession, the Fed may opt for a dovish pivot — or at least play the wait-and-see game for the near future.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for July 26</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for July 26\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-24 16:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/07/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-july-26/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With the July FOMC meetings just days away, all eyes are on the Fed.The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to levy a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting.With inflation down to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/07/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-july-26/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/07/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-july-26/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156173048","content_text":"With the July FOMC meetings just days away, all eyes are on the Fed.The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to levy a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting.With inflation down to just 3%, there is some debate over whether the central bank needs to continue risking the greater economy to lower prices even further.Stock market crash fears are elevated ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve rate-hike decision. Indeed, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for July 25 and July 26. The implications of the meeting for the health of the stock market and the economy could be significant.Many are expecting the Fed to raise rates again after it opted to pause in June, ending a 10-month streak of consecutive rate hikes. However, the decision remains a point of controversy among economists. Some believe the concern of an eventual “credit event” coming in the wake of the regional banking crisis earlier this year merits additional hesitance.That said, the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks the implied probability of changes to the Federal Funds rate as determined by 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing data, is pricing in a 99.8% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase in July. This would put the benchmark rate in the range of 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in nearly 22 years.The Fed has long maintained its monetary policy decisions are data-dependent. This time around the data says that the Fed is already succeeding at its job. In fact, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed easing annual inflation of just 3%. That’s well below May’s 4% level and just a third of the peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022.“The cooler print across the board underscores that inflation is edging lower, but the core remains ‘sticky,’ although also cooling but not fast enough for the Fed to declare victory,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “The July 26 meeting will still see a rate hike, but unless core inflation comes down at a faster pace, July 26 won’t be a one and done.”Stock Market Crash Concerns Loom LargeDespite the Fed’s success thus far, the central bank’s 2% inflation goal remains a point of controversy. The doves believe the Fed has already raised rates enough to sufficiently lower prices, hopefully without incurring an economic recession. The hawks, meanwhile, feel the current strength of the economy justifies an even more aggressive route forward.With unemployment holding relatively steady between 3.4% and 3.7% from March to July of this year, and stocks in the midst of a bull market, it seems the Fed has plenty of runway to attempt to forcibly lower prices.Even metrics like economic growth and U.S. wages are doing excellent. The country is managing to lower prices while avoiding greater economic turmoil. The question remains whether next week’s rate-hike decision will mark the final rate increase in 2023.In that regard, not everyone’s on the same page. “I see two more 25-basis-point hikes in the target range over the four remaining meetings this year as necessary to keep inflation moving toward our target,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller earlier this month.As mentioned, however, data rules the day. Should evidence suggest that inflation is already on track to 2% without further hikes, or that the economy is spiraling into a wider recession, the Fed may opt for a dovish pivot — or at least play the wait-and-see game for the near future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970480680,"gmtCreate":1684817633040,"gmtModify":1684817637268,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","listText":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","text":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970480680","repostId":"2337622107","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2337622107","pubTimestamp":1684798085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2337622107?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-23 07:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2337622107","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e6eef20058b6f3e1b90fc3390b88ea4\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>As the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA&#39;s growth and profitability to suffer. That means that TSLA&#39;s P/E and PEG likely will come down. The way that is accomplished is by a falling price for TSLA stock. That is exactly what is happening, as you can see on the chart below.</p><p>Tesla is in a bear market looking for a bottom, not unlike the overall market, as represented by SPDR® S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The overvaluation of the mega-cap stocks that move the SPY higher continues. When the recession comes, these overvalued stocks should drop to the levels of last October, if not lower, especially TSLA with a Beta of 2. You can see the SPY breakout on the chart below, and we think this is the last hurrah for the October bounce. When the SPY turns down, it should take TSLA with it.</p><p>Everyone knows the growth cycle. The new company is growing like crazy and then the competition comes alive. The growth begins to slow, especially as the company becomes larger and larger. Finally it morphs from growth to value, a blue chip paying dividends. TSLA has moved from being aggressive growth to slower growth, but with a long runway still ahead of it. The only problem with that picture is that it is overvalued and price has to come down. Then there was the dumping of stock on the market so Elon could buy Twitter. Increased supply brings price down. Plus, institutional ownership of TSLA stock is a very low 44%.</p><p>All of this is well known by the market and can be seen in price trends. The short, intermediate, and long-term price trends are down and price is continuing a downward movement. You can see this on the chart below. The 200-day moving average, long-term trend is down. So is the intermediate 50-day trend and the short term 20-day trend moving average. TSLA is underperforming the market, and portfolio managers are dumping it because it is hurting their performance. You cannot beat the Index by holding underperforming stocks. However, bottom fishers do buy underperforming stocks like TSLA if the price is low enough.</p><p>Now, if TSLA could beat all the competition and maintain its aggressive growth in the future, that would change the downtrends. If its earnings revisions improved dramatically, that would change the downtrends. However, the market right now does not see that happening for TSLA and that is why price continues to drop. Great company, great profits, ahead of the competition, but how long will that last in such a competitive industry? TSLA is going to lose market share and the market is trying to compute how fast that is going to happen and how to value TSLA stock accordingly. Right now it thinks the price is too high. The charts show price dropping for that reason.</p><p>In our previous article, we showed the downtrends and the sell signal after earnings. When price gapped down after earnings, the bargain hunters came in and took the price back up, filling the gap down. This is classical technical movement of price. TSLA is in a downtrend, but it is not going to dive to the bottom. It is moving down in a very orderly manner to the next support level and then bouncing as the bargain hunters come in again. Then it goes down lower than before, forming the classical lower-high and lower-low in price until it finally hits bottom.</p><p>You can see the last bottom was $102 and you can see price moving in a slow, and orderly manner, back down to retest that price. As noted above, any improvement in growth, earnings revisions and profit margins would change the outcome. We don&#39;t think that happens. We see the growing competition taking market share from TSLA. The competition has shown that they are willing to lose money to catch up with TSLA.</p><p>Technically, we look for bounces in prices to change our Sell Signals. In the case of TSLA, we can see that the current bounce has not changed our Sell Signal, which uses both technicals and fundamentals. When this happens on a bounce, that becomes a confirmation of the Sell Signal and we expect the stock to move lower. That is what you can see on this weekly chart below:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4ff653f9f3ba4cd18dd5631fbee0fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"884\"/></p><p>TSLA bounce fails to change sell signals. (stockcharts.com)</p><p></p><p>Meanwhile the market has recently helped the TSLA stock price, along with the Musk interview. As you can see on the SPY chart below, there is a positive breakout above $420. This was caused by positive, no-default talk, but on Friday negotiations broke down and the SPY dropped below $420 looking for support at $415. On Sunday, Biden was on TV about negotiations and in touch with McCarthy.</p><p>Here is the daily SPY chart, and it still is holding on to our vertical, blue line buy signal. That could change with further bad news on the debt ceiling negotiations.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52f9df72b2ae7c46d56ee78d1efbb69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\"/></p><p>SPY drops on debt ceiling news (stockcharts.com)</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-23 07:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA's growth and profitability to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2337622107","content_text":"As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA's growth and profitability to suffer. That means that TSLA's P/E and PEG likely will come down. The way that is accomplished is by a falling price for TSLA stock. That is exactly what is happening, as you can see on the chart below.Tesla is in a bear market looking for a bottom, not unlike the overall market, as represented by SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The overvaluation of the mega-cap stocks that move the SPY higher continues. When the recession comes, these overvalued stocks should drop to the levels of last October, if not lower, especially TSLA with a Beta of 2. You can see the SPY breakout on the chart below, and we think this is the last hurrah for the October bounce. When the SPY turns down, it should take TSLA with it.Everyone knows the growth cycle. The new company is growing like crazy and then the competition comes alive. The growth begins to slow, especially as the company becomes larger and larger. Finally it morphs from growth to value, a blue chip paying dividends. TSLA has moved from being aggressive growth to slower growth, but with a long runway still ahead of it. The only problem with that picture is that it is overvalued and price has to come down. Then there was the dumping of stock on the market so Elon could buy Twitter. Increased supply brings price down. Plus, institutional ownership of TSLA stock is a very low 44%.All of this is well known by the market and can be seen in price trends. The short, intermediate, and long-term price trends are down and price is continuing a downward movement. You can see this on the chart below. The 200-day moving average, long-term trend is down. So is the intermediate 50-day trend and the short term 20-day trend moving average. TSLA is underperforming the market, and portfolio managers are dumping it because it is hurting their performance. You cannot beat the Index by holding underperforming stocks. However, bottom fishers do buy underperforming stocks like TSLA if the price is low enough.Now, if TSLA could beat all the competition and maintain its aggressive growth in the future, that would change the downtrends. If its earnings revisions improved dramatically, that would change the downtrends. However, the market right now does not see that happening for TSLA and that is why price continues to drop. Great company, great profits, ahead of the competition, but how long will that last in such a competitive industry? TSLA is going to lose market share and the market is trying to compute how fast that is going to happen and how to value TSLA stock accordingly. Right now it thinks the price is too high. The charts show price dropping for that reason.In our previous article, we showed the downtrends and the sell signal after earnings. When price gapped down after earnings, the bargain hunters came in and took the price back up, filling the gap down. This is classical technical movement of price. TSLA is in a downtrend, but it is not going to dive to the bottom. It is moving down in a very orderly manner to the next support level and then bouncing as the bargain hunters come in again. Then it goes down lower than before, forming the classical lower-high and lower-low in price until it finally hits bottom.You can see the last bottom was $102 and you can see price moving in a slow, and orderly manner, back down to retest that price. As noted above, any improvement in growth, earnings revisions and profit margins would change the outcome. We don't think that happens. We see the growing competition taking market share from TSLA. The competition has shown that they are willing to lose money to catch up with TSLA.Technically, we look for bounces in prices to change our Sell Signals. In the case of TSLA, we can see that the current bounce has not changed our Sell Signal, which uses both technicals and fundamentals. When this happens on a bounce, that becomes a confirmation of the Sell Signal and we expect the stock to move lower. That is what you can see on this weekly chart below:TSLA bounce fails to change sell signals. (stockcharts.com)Meanwhile the market has recently helped the TSLA stock price, along with the Musk interview. As you can see on the SPY chart below, there is a positive breakout above $420. This was caused by positive, no-default talk, but on Friday negotiations broke down and the SPY dropped below $420 looking for support at $415. On Sunday, Biden was on TV about negotiations and in touch with McCarthy.Here is the daily SPY chart, and it still is holding on to our vertical, blue line buy signal. That could change with further bad news on the debt ceiling negotiations.SPY drops on debt ceiling news (stockcharts.com)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943688032,"gmtCreate":1679407490827,"gmtModify":1679407495440,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.&nbsp;","listText":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.&nbsp;","text":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943688032","repostId":"2321566653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574766125413757","authorId":"3574766125413757","name":"Fyf","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4789a0e344ba7e3694a4eef335694cd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar","text":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar","html":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943147399,"gmtCreate":1679314330712,"gmtModify":1679314335381,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's mark their words.&nbsp; WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","listText":"Let's mark their words.&nbsp; WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","text":"Let's mark their words. WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943147399","repostId":"1116011777","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943163875,"gmtCreate":1679285828997,"gmtModify":1679285832781,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","listText":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","text":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943163875","repostId":"1124635791","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584911736417489","authorId":"3584911736417489","name":"Fly High","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8572d7c834f14d421f65ad1ce935d0c8","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]","text":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]","html":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949767271,"gmtCreate":1678899162993,"gmtModify":1678899166023,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Confirmed more to come.&nbsp;","listText":"Confirmed more to come.&nbsp;","text":"Confirmed more to come.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949767271","repostId":"1123603567","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123603567","pubTimestamp":1678891090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123603567?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-15 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"72 Hours in Washington: How the Frenzied SVB Rescue Took Shape","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123603567","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Haunted by the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, President Biden told aides that no taxpayer m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p>Haunted by the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, President Biden told aides that no taxpayer money should be used.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b0106b55e7e70bbac5760b5f522f56\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>It was approaching midnight in Washington and 9 p.m. in Santa Clara, California. The news was bad—and getting worse. Everyone from President Joe Biden on down was getting acrash courseonSilicon Valley Bank, the once-obscure tech lender that has now cast abig shadow over the financial markets.</p><p>At the White House and the US Department of the Treasury next door, bleary-eyed officials were racing to prevent the trouble at SVB from exploding into a full-blown banking crisis. A block west at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., regulators were arguing about what to do. Over at the Gridiron Club dinner, Washington’s annual see-and-be-seen white-tie journalism roast, a marquee guest, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, was conspicuously absent.</p><p>That Saturday, March 11, the fate of techdom’s preeminent bank—and with it, some feared, the future of the global economy—was being gamed out in Washington. Over the next 24 hours, almost everyone in the financial industry would be on tenterhooks as federal officials raced to complete a rescue before Asian markets opened Sunday night.</p><p>Almost a week later, the implications of the SVB fiasco, thesecond-biggest bank failure in US history, are still coming into focus. Questions keep piling up. How could SVB, a favorite of venture capitalists and unicorn startups, succumb to arun in the smartphone age? Why hadn’t banking regulators seen this coming?</p><p>Federal authorities want answers, too. The Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission haveopened investigationsinto the collapse. One potential focus:sales of SVB stockin the weeks before the failure by Greg Becker, chief executive officer of the bank’s parent company. Biden, meanwhile, has pledged a push totighten banking rules, which the Fed is already considering doing for midsize institutions like SVB.</p><p>This much is sure: All these years later, Washington is still haunted by the Wall Street fiascoes that triggered the Great Recession. The colossal bank bailouts of that era saved the economy, but they also rankled ordinary Americans, gave birth to the Tea Party movement on the right and Occupy Wall Street on the left, and transformed US politics. Backlash to the bailouts died down, but the resentment never really went away. It may have ultimately helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016, some political scientists havesaid.</p><p>Which is probably why President Biden has been reluctant to even say the word “bailout.” He vowed on March 13 that “no losses will be borne by the taxpayers.” For the time being, Biden is right. This doesn’t look like aLehman momentthat could upend the whole economy. But it<i>does</i>look likea Bear Stearns one—a smaller debacle pointing to more pain to come, in this case, because of the sharp rise in interest rates that triggered SVB’s problems and are still roiling the financial system.</p><p>Federal authorities have taken the extraordinary step ofguaranteeing all deposits at SVBand opening a broaderemergency lending program. By midweek, the fix was holding. If it doesn’t, the next move might have to be a suspension of the$250,000 limit on federal deposit insurance.</p><p>Policymakers, venture capitalists, banking executives and tech entrepreneurs are all struggling to figure out the next steps. SVB’s failure has changed the conversation about banking and the regulators who oversee it. Suddenly, everyone is thinking about other risks that might be lurking. On March 14,Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook for the entire US banking system, to negative from stable, citing the run on deposits at SVB. Two other lenders have gone bust, too: crypto playersSilvergate Capital Corp.andSignature Bank.</p><p>The death spiral at SVB began with credit ratings. In early March, Moody’s informed the bank it was considering a multilevel downgrade that would have pushed it to the brink of junk-bond status. In response, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hired by SVB to help it raise fresh capital, jumped into action. It offloaded a chunk of SVB’s investment portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss. On Wednesday, March 8, Goldman pitched a plan to investors to help plug that hole, and then some, by raising $2.25 billion in capital fromGeneral Atlanticand other investors. Itdidn’t work.</p><p>“The Catch-22 of the situation is that, by announcing the need to raise capital, they in essence accelerated customer concern, resulting in the liquidity stress that ultimately caused their collapse,” says Olivier Sarkozy, managing partner atFurther Global, a private equity firm. “It would have been far better to announce the $2.25 billion they were seeking had been secured.”</p><p>In the bankers’ view, they were racing the clock to defuse the Moody’s threat. That didn’t leave them enough time to canvass the market, line up the funding and present a neatly put-together deal. Then CEO Becker held what turned out to be a disastrous call with VCs and limited partners. “Stay calm,” he said. It was too late. Bankers tapping away at their phones watched, aghast, as social media lit up with reports of a viral bank run.</p><p>By 3 p.m. the next day, Thursday, March 9, the news out of Santa Clarahad reached the White House. Such high-profile venture firms asUnion Square Venturesand thePeter Thiel-backedFounders Fundhad already been encouraging the companies they invested in to yank their deposits, almost all of which were uninsured because they exceeded the $250,000 limit on federal guarantees. Founders Fund haddrained its own accountsfrom the bank by midday.</p><p>The message was echoed by other VC titans.Bookface, an internal social network for founders of companies backed by the startup acceleratorY Combinator, was abuzz, as was a messenger threadof more than 1,000 founders fromAndreessen Horowitz, with many encouraging each other to pull cash from the bank. By day’s end, depositors had tried to withdraw $42 billion.</p><p>Silicon Valley bigs—many with a libertarian, get-government-off-our-backs bent—quickly looked to Washington. They implored the administration to step in and rescue depositors, or risk having banks topple like dominoes. On Friday morning, March 10, the new White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and Lael Brainard, the former Fed vice chair who’djust becomedirector of Biden’s National Economic Council, went to the Oval Office to brief the president. They told him there was potential for the bank to be shut down—as it was later that day, even before the close of financial markets—and that there was a possibility of contagion, according to a source familiar with the discussion.</p><p>From dawn to midnight the following day, Zients, Brainard and other aides working in the White House’s West Wing developed a set of options. By Saturday afternoon, it was clear that regulators would probably need to take action to prevent contagion. When Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and top aides briefed Biden on the options, he was adamant: The federal government stood ready to protect depositors, small businesses and employees. Executives and investors could take their lumps. He didn’t want taxpayers to be on the hook, and any deal had to include firing management.</p><p>In the Bay Area, Iba Masood was struggling to make sense of it all. Masood, the co-founder and CEO of a tech startup calledTara.AI, had raised $14 million from investors. And she’d parked every penny of the company’s money at SVB. Masood began firing off emails and texts—hundreds and hundreds of them, until her carpal tunnel flared up. Tara.AI, she told her investors, was facing a perilous squeeze. She hopped in her C300 Mercedes-Benz and raced through a driving rainstorm to a Bank of America branch. Drenched, she hastily opened a corporate account. She felt good, she said, confident. She’d wake up the next morning and have the money in the new account.</p><p>But there was no next morning for SVB. It was too late. The money was frozen.</p><p>Trae Stephens, a partner at Founders Fund, said the firm had had a long, fruitful relationship with SVB. But that long, fruitful relationship wasn’t going to help Thiel’s firm honor its fiduciary duty to look out for its backers and limited partners. And it wasn’t going to help all those startups make payroll.</p><p>“The most inconvenient thing about the situation last week was actually the name of the bank. It got instantly politicized,” Stephens said in aMarch 14 interview on Bloomberg Television. To him, the idea that Washington had somehow bailed out rich VCs and techies is hogwash. “The government did what it needed to protect and shore up these smaller regional banks, to ensure there weren’t any further runs. It seems like they acted quickly—and did the right thing.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>72 Hours in Washington: How the Frenzied SVB Rescue Took Shape</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n72 Hours in Washington: How the Frenzied SVB Rescue Took Shape\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-15 22:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/svb-bailout-shaped-by-biden-administration-over-72-hours?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Haunted by the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, President Biden told aides that no taxpayer money should be used.It was approaching midnight in Washington and 9 p.m. in Santa Clara, California....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/svb-bailout-shaped-by-biden-administration-over-72-hours?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBNY":"签字银行","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","PACW":"西太平洋合众银行"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/svb-bailout-shaped-by-biden-administration-over-72-hours?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123603567","content_text":"Haunted by the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, President Biden told aides that no taxpayer money should be used.It was approaching midnight in Washington and 9 p.m. in Santa Clara, California. The news was bad—and getting worse. Everyone from President Joe Biden on down was getting acrash courseonSilicon Valley Bank, the once-obscure tech lender that has now cast abig shadow over the financial markets.At the White House and the US Department of the Treasury next door, bleary-eyed officials were racing to prevent the trouble at SVB from exploding into a full-blown banking crisis. A block west at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., regulators were arguing about what to do. Over at the Gridiron Club dinner, Washington’s annual see-and-be-seen white-tie journalism roast, a marquee guest, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, was conspicuously absent.That Saturday, March 11, the fate of techdom’s preeminent bank—and with it, some feared, the future of the global economy—was being gamed out in Washington. Over the next 24 hours, almost everyone in the financial industry would be on tenterhooks as federal officials raced to complete a rescue before Asian markets opened Sunday night.Almost a week later, the implications of the SVB fiasco, thesecond-biggest bank failure in US history, are still coming into focus. Questions keep piling up. How could SVB, a favorite of venture capitalists and unicorn startups, succumb to arun in the smartphone age? Why hadn’t banking regulators seen this coming?Federal authorities want answers, too. The Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission haveopened investigationsinto the collapse. One potential focus:sales of SVB stockin the weeks before the failure by Greg Becker, chief executive officer of the bank’s parent company. Biden, meanwhile, has pledged a push totighten banking rules, which the Fed is already considering doing for midsize institutions like SVB.This much is sure: All these years later, Washington is still haunted by the Wall Street fiascoes that triggered the Great Recession. The colossal bank bailouts of that era saved the economy, but they also rankled ordinary Americans, gave birth to the Tea Party movement on the right and Occupy Wall Street on the left, and transformed US politics. Backlash to the bailouts died down, but the resentment never really went away. It may have ultimately helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016, some political scientists havesaid.Which is probably why President Biden has been reluctant to even say the word “bailout.” He vowed on March 13 that “no losses will be borne by the taxpayers.” For the time being, Biden is right. This doesn’t look like aLehman momentthat could upend the whole economy. But itdoeslook likea Bear Stearns one—a smaller debacle pointing to more pain to come, in this case, because of the sharp rise in interest rates that triggered SVB’s problems and are still roiling the financial system.Federal authorities have taken the extraordinary step ofguaranteeing all deposits at SVBand opening a broaderemergency lending program. By midweek, the fix was holding. If it doesn’t, the next move might have to be a suspension of the$250,000 limit on federal deposit insurance.Policymakers, venture capitalists, banking executives and tech entrepreneurs are all struggling to figure out the next steps. SVB’s failure has changed the conversation about banking and the regulators who oversee it. Suddenly, everyone is thinking about other risks that might be lurking. On March 14,Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook for the entire US banking system, to negative from stable, citing the run on deposits at SVB. Two other lenders have gone bust, too: crypto playersSilvergate Capital Corp.andSignature Bank.The death spiral at SVB began with credit ratings. In early March, Moody’s informed the bank it was considering a multilevel downgrade that would have pushed it to the brink of junk-bond status. In response, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hired by SVB to help it raise fresh capital, jumped into action. It offloaded a chunk of SVB’s investment portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss. On Wednesday, March 8, Goldman pitched a plan to investors to help plug that hole, and then some, by raising $2.25 billion in capital fromGeneral Atlanticand other investors. Itdidn’t work.“The Catch-22 of the situation is that, by announcing the need to raise capital, they in essence accelerated customer concern, resulting in the liquidity stress that ultimately caused their collapse,” says Olivier Sarkozy, managing partner atFurther Global, a private equity firm. “It would have been far better to announce the $2.25 billion they were seeking had been secured.”In the bankers’ view, they were racing the clock to defuse the Moody’s threat. That didn’t leave them enough time to canvass the market, line up the funding and present a neatly put-together deal. Then CEO Becker held what turned out to be a disastrous call with VCs and limited partners. “Stay calm,” he said. It was too late. Bankers tapping away at their phones watched, aghast, as social media lit up with reports of a viral bank run.By 3 p.m. the next day, Thursday, March 9, the news out of Santa Clarahad reached the White House. Such high-profile venture firms asUnion Square Venturesand thePeter Thiel-backedFounders Fundhad already been encouraging the companies they invested in to yank their deposits, almost all of which were uninsured because they exceeded the $250,000 limit on federal guarantees. Founders Fund haddrained its own accountsfrom the bank by midday.The message was echoed by other VC titans.Bookface, an internal social network for founders of companies backed by the startup acceleratorY Combinator, was abuzz, as was a messenger threadof more than 1,000 founders fromAndreessen Horowitz, with many encouraging each other to pull cash from the bank. By day’s end, depositors had tried to withdraw $42 billion.Silicon Valley bigs—many with a libertarian, get-government-off-our-backs bent—quickly looked to Washington. They implored the administration to step in and rescue depositors, or risk having banks topple like dominoes. On Friday morning, March 10, the new White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and Lael Brainard, the former Fed vice chair who’djust becomedirector of Biden’s National Economic Council, went to the Oval Office to brief the president. They told him there was potential for the bank to be shut down—as it was later that day, even before the close of financial markets—and that there was a possibility of contagion, according to a source familiar with the discussion.From dawn to midnight the following day, Zients, Brainard and other aides working in the White House’s West Wing developed a set of options. By Saturday afternoon, it was clear that regulators would probably need to take action to prevent contagion. When Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and top aides briefed Biden on the options, he was adamant: The federal government stood ready to protect depositors, small businesses and employees. Executives and investors could take their lumps. He didn’t want taxpayers to be on the hook, and any deal had to include firing management.In the Bay Area, Iba Masood was struggling to make sense of it all. Masood, the co-founder and CEO of a tech startup calledTara.AI, had raised $14 million from investors. And she’d parked every penny of the company’s money at SVB. Masood began firing off emails and texts—hundreds and hundreds of them, until her carpal tunnel flared up. Tara.AI, she told her investors, was facing a perilous squeeze. She hopped in her C300 Mercedes-Benz and raced through a driving rainstorm to a Bank of America branch. Drenched, she hastily opened a corporate account. She felt good, she said, confident. She’d wake up the next morning and have the money in the new account.But there was no next morning for SVB. It was too late. The money was frozen.Trae Stephens, a partner at Founders Fund, said the firm had had a long, fruitful relationship with SVB. But that long, fruitful relationship wasn’t going to help Thiel’s firm honor its fiduciary duty to look out for its backers and limited partners. And it wasn’t going to help all those startups make payroll.“The most inconvenient thing about the situation last week was actually the name of the bank. It got instantly politicized,” Stephens said in aMarch 14 interview on Bloomberg Television. To him, the idea that Washington had somehow bailed out rich VCs and techies is hogwash. “The government did what it needed to protect and shore up these smaller regional banks, to ensure there weren’t any further runs. It seems like they acted quickly—and did the right thing.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957103388,"gmtCreate":1677055539145,"gmtModify":1677055543514,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.&nbsp;","listText":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.&nbsp;","text":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957103388","repostId":"2313088427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2313088427","pubTimestamp":1677052978,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2313088427?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-22 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Another Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313088427","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The market can&#39;t catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.</li><li>Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.</li><li>The bull&#39;s dream of immaculate disinflation is officially dead at this rate.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6972930b2d7a385a08488f92f901\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><p>Another blow to the disinflation narrative came on February 20, despite the equity markets in the US being closed. The Manheim used car data showed that used car prices rose by 4.1% through the first half of February. That is the most significantincrease in used cars since October 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89d91e70dc942c54df2770d12ac7766\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>The index rose to 234.0, the highest value since July 2022, when it stood at 239.6. It provides even further evidence that inflation is embedded within this economy and bubbling up again. The used car index price is up 7.5% since the November lower. This type of data will probably feed into the inflation expectations continuing to rise.</p><p>Inflation swaps have risen dramatically since the CPI report last week. The February CPI inflation now sees inflation at 6.01%, which is up from 5.78% on January 13, the day before the CPI report. Meanwhile, the March CPI inflation swap is trading at 4.98%, up from 4.85% the day before the CPI report. These inflation swaps tell us that the market expects inflation to be persistently higher than previously expected and that expectations for that fast roll-off in data may be far slower than expected.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d951687ba73ef1f8b050a29073f1cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>Even worse, the pipe dream that inflation would hit 2% by June is long gone. Inflation swaps for June are now 2.8%, up 80 bps from the January 9 low of 2.03%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392857106146c96a18a47062f3613b59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>The PCE report is expected to come on Friday as well, showing that inflation in January will also be hot. PCE month-over-month in January is forecast to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month from 0.1% and be up by 5% year-over-year, in line with the December reading. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month versus an increase of 0.3% in December and 4.3% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in December. That would undoubtedly be a big blow again to the hope that inflation would ride off into the sunset.</p><p>But more importantly, this presents a real problem to the bullish narrative because the higher inflation stays, the higher rates will have to go. Historically, the year-over-year PCE is still more than 1.15% above the 30-year Treasury rate. That has only happened two other times in recent history, in the fall of 1979 and the summer of 1980, and it was brief, and the PCE year-over-year was just 0.3% above the 30-year rate. The inflation rate hasn&#39;t exceeded the 30-year Treasury in modern history.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9ffb43458d7d938bfaf532b549096\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>However, long-term rates have been slow to rise because the market has believed that inflation would be fast to come down. But the longer inflation stays high, and the slower it takes to fall, the more likely it becomes that long-term rates will rise above the inflation.</p><p>On average, the 30-year rate has traded 3.12% above the PCE inflation rate, implying an 8.12% 30-year rate, assuming PCE comes in at 5% this week. So either inflation needs to start falling fast, or long-term rates will have to head much higher soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2dcb9072feac5bc4f8cc15c9e0e0db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>This would have grave implications for the equity market that ran in front of the disinflation narrative. While it is not incorrect to believe that there is a disinflationary narrative because inflation is slowing, the question is how long it will take to come down and sticky it will be in that process. The longer it takes for inflation to come down to the Fed&#39;s 2% target, the more likely it is that rates on the long end of the curve will have to rise and the more damage that will cause to stock valuation in the long run.</p><p>Based on the data that continues to roll in, it appears the bulls will be wrong once again, just like they have been so many times since the beginning of 2022.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-22 16:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.The bull's dream of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313088427","content_text":"SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.The bull's dream of immaculate disinflation is officially dead at this rate.jetcityimageAnother blow to the disinflation narrative came on February 20, despite the equity markets in the US being closed. The Manheim used car data showed that used car prices rose by 4.1% through the first half of February. That is the most significantincrease in used cars since October 2021.BloombergThe index rose to 234.0, the highest value since July 2022, when it stood at 239.6. It provides even further evidence that inflation is embedded within this economy and bubbling up again. The used car index price is up 7.5% since the November lower. This type of data will probably feed into the inflation expectations continuing to rise.Inflation swaps have risen dramatically since the CPI report last week. The February CPI inflation now sees inflation at 6.01%, which is up from 5.78% on January 13, the day before the CPI report. Meanwhile, the March CPI inflation swap is trading at 4.98%, up from 4.85% the day before the CPI report. These inflation swaps tell us that the market expects inflation to be persistently higher than previously expected and that expectations for that fast roll-off in data may be far slower than expected.BloombergEven worse, the pipe dream that inflation would hit 2% by June is long gone. Inflation swaps for June are now 2.8%, up 80 bps from the January 9 low of 2.03%.BloombergThe PCE report is expected to come on Friday as well, showing that inflation in January will also be hot. PCE month-over-month in January is forecast to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month from 0.1% and be up by 5% year-over-year, in line with the December reading. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month versus an increase of 0.3% in December and 4.3% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in December. That would undoubtedly be a big blow again to the hope that inflation would ride off into the sunset.But more importantly, this presents a real problem to the bullish narrative because the higher inflation stays, the higher rates will have to go. Historically, the year-over-year PCE is still more than 1.15% above the 30-year Treasury rate. That has only happened two other times in recent history, in the fall of 1979 and the summer of 1980, and it was brief, and the PCE year-over-year was just 0.3% above the 30-year rate. The inflation rate hasn't exceeded the 30-year Treasury in modern history.BloombergHowever, long-term rates have been slow to rise because the market has believed that inflation would be fast to come down. But the longer inflation stays high, and the slower it takes to fall, the more likely it becomes that long-term rates will rise above the inflation.On average, the 30-year rate has traded 3.12% above the PCE inflation rate, implying an 8.12% 30-year rate, assuming PCE comes in at 5% this week. So either inflation needs to start falling fast, or long-term rates will have to head much higher soon.BloombergThis would have grave implications for the equity market that ran in front of the disinflation narrative. While it is not incorrect to believe that there is a disinflationary narrative because inflation is slowing, the question is how long it will take to come down and sticky it will be in that process. The longer it takes for inflation to come down to the Fed's 2% target, the more likely it is that rates on the long end of the curve will have to rise and the more damage that will cause to stock valuation in the long run.Based on the data that continues to roll in, it appears the bulls will be wrong once again, just like they have been so many times since the beginning of 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957395780,"gmtCreate":1676984487541,"gmtModify":1676984491531,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's short it now.","listText":"Let's short it now.","text":"Let's short it now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957395780","repostId":"2313707349","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952137630,"gmtCreate":1674522190621,"gmtModify":1676538944614,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I will all in now.","listText":"I will all in now.","text":"I will all in now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952137630","repostId":"2304155617","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956286544,"gmtCreate":1674014459188,"gmtModify":1676538916352,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Means gonna dip soon?","listText":"Means gonna dip soon?","text":"Means gonna dip soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956286544","repostId":"2304782485","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2304782485","pubTimestamp":1674009192,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2304782485?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-18 10:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Did Tesla Stock Rally Today? Price Cuts Could Have Some Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2304782485","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday with a 7.43% push higher","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was the biggest gainer in the S&amp;P 500 Index on Tuesday with a 7.43% push higher.</p><p>Strong vehicle registration data out of China helped to bring in some buyers. Following price cuts in the region, Tesla China EV registrations were 12,654 for the week of January 9 to January 15 in a big jump from the week prior.</p><p>Wall Street analysts were also largely positive on the impact of Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) price cuts in the U.S. The general view is that market share benefits could be dramatic if EV competitors struggle amid the new pricing backdrop. Tesla was also noted to have made an effort to have more vehicles qualify for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits as base prices for the Model Y and Model 3 in the U.S. are now below the required MSRP thresholds.</p><p>Shares of Tesla traded as high as $131.70 during the session to mark a new 2023 high. The EV stock is still well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Did Tesla Stock Rally Today? Price Cuts Could Have Some Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Did Tesla Stock Rally Today? Price Cuts Could Have Some Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-18 10:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3925202-why-did-tesla-stock-rally-today-price-cuts-could-have-some-upside><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday with a 7.43% push higher.Strong vehicle registration data out of China helped to bring in some buyers. Following price cuts ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3925202-why-did-tesla-stock-rally-today-price-cuts-could-have-some-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3925202-why-did-tesla-stock-rally-today-price-cuts-could-have-some-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2304782485","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday with a 7.43% push higher.Strong vehicle registration data out of China helped to bring in some buyers. Following price cuts in the region, Tesla China EV registrations were 12,654 for the week of January 9 to January 15 in a big jump from the week prior.Wall Street analysts were also largely positive on the impact of Tesla's (TSLA) price cuts in the U.S. The general view is that market share benefits could be dramatic if EV competitors struggle amid the new pricing backdrop. Tesla was also noted to have made an effort to have more vehicles qualify for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits as base prices for the Model Y and Model 3 in the U.S. are now below the required MSRP thresholds.Shares of Tesla traded as high as $131.70 during the session to mark a new 2023 high. The EV stock is still well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566532164444643","authorId":"3566532164444643","name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"After earnings as usual","text":"After earnings as usual","html":"After earnings as usual"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924828332,"gmtCreate":1672226541528,"gmtModify":1676538655832,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Run while you have chance.","listText":"Run while you have chance.","text":"Run while you have chance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924828332","repostId":"1189684428","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924068707,"gmtCreate":1672139569109,"gmtModify":1676538640486,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Close eyes short all the way.","listText":"Close eyes short all the way.","text":"Close eyes short all the way.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924068707","repostId":"1142500711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142500711","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672138150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142500711?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-27 18:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142500711","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4136c6b0da5a3322087d2fd222242768\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-27 18:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4136c6b0da5a3322087d2fd222242768\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142500711","content_text":"Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9949767271,"gmtCreate":1678899162993,"gmtModify":1678899166023,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Confirmed more to come.&nbsp;","listText":"Confirmed more to come.&nbsp;","text":"Confirmed more to come.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949767271","repostId":"1123603567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957103388,"gmtCreate":1677055539145,"gmtModify":1677055543514,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.&nbsp;","listText":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.&nbsp;","text":"Totally agreed. Should be fast and decisive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957103388","repostId":"2313088427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2313088427","pubTimestamp":1677052978,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2313088427?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-22 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Another Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313088427","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The market can&#39;t catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.</li><li>Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.</li><li>The bull&#39;s dream of immaculate disinflation is officially dead at this rate.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6972930b2d7a385a08488f92f901\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><p>Another blow to the disinflation narrative came on February 20, despite the equity markets in the US being closed. The Manheim used car data showed that used car prices rose by 4.1% through the first half of February. That is the most significantincrease in used cars since October 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89d91e70dc942c54df2770d12ac7766\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>The index rose to 234.0, the highest value since July 2022, when it stood at 239.6. It provides even further evidence that inflation is embedded within this economy and bubbling up again. The used car index price is up 7.5% since the November lower. This type of data will probably feed into the inflation expectations continuing to rise.</p><p>Inflation swaps have risen dramatically since the CPI report last week. The February CPI inflation now sees inflation at 6.01%, which is up from 5.78% on January 13, the day before the CPI report. Meanwhile, the March CPI inflation swap is trading at 4.98%, up from 4.85% the day before the CPI report. These inflation swaps tell us that the market expects inflation to be persistently higher than previously expected and that expectations for that fast roll-off in data may be far slower than expected.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d951687ba73ef1f8b050a29073f1cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>Even worse, the pipe dream that inflation would hit 2% by June is long gone. Inflation swaps for June are now 2.8%, up 80 bps from the January 9 low of 2.03%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392857106146c96a18a47062f3613b59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>The PCE report is expected to come on Friday as well, showing that inflation in January will also be hot. PCE month-over-month in January is forecast to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month from 0.1% and be up by 5% year-over-year, in line with the December reading. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month versus an increase of 0.3% in December and 4.3% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in December. That would undoubtedly be a big blow again to the hope that inflation would ride off into the sunset.</p><p>But more importantly, this presents a real problem to the bullish narrative because the higher inflation stays, the higher rates will have to go. Historically, the year-over-year PCE is still more than 1.15% above the 30-year Treasury rate. That has only happened two other times in recent history, in the fall of 1979 and the summer of 1980, and it was brief, and the PCE year-over-year was just 0.3% above the 30-year rate. The inflation rate hasn&#39;t exceeded the 30-year Treasury in modern history.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9ffb43458d7d938bfaf532b549096\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>However, long-term rates have been slow to rise because the market has believed that inflation would be fast to come down. But the longer inflation stays high, and the slower it takes to fall, the more likely it becomes that long-term rates will rise above the inflation.</p><p>On average, the 30-year rate has traded 3.12% above the PCE inflation rate, implying an 8.12% 30-year rate, assuming PCE comes in at 5% this week. So either inflation needs to start falling fast, or long-term rates will have to head much higher soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2dcb9072feac5bc4f8cc15c9e0e0db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>This would have grave implications for the equity market that ran in front of the disinflation narrative. While it is not incorrect to believe that there is a disinflationary narrative because inflation is slowing, the question is how long it will take to come down and sticky it will be in that process. The longer it takes for inflation to come down to the Fed&#39;s 2% target, the more likely it is that rates on the long end of the curve will have to rise and the more damage that will cause to stock valuation in the long run.</p><p>Based on the data that continues to roll in, it appears the bulls will be wrong once again, just like they have been so many times since the beginning of 2022.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother Massive Inflation Shock Is About To Hit The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-22 16:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.The bull's dream of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580134-another-inflation-shock-to-hit-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313088427","content_text":"SummaryThe market can't catch a break; even when the equity market is closed, more inflation data is announced.Used auto prices have risen by more than 4%, thus far in February.The bull's dream of immaculate disinflation is officially dead at this rate.jetcityimageAnother blow to the disinflation narrative came on February 20, despite the equity markets in the US being closed. The Manheim used car data showed that used car prices rose by 4.1% through the first half of February. That is the most significantincrease in used cars since October 2021.BloombergThe index rose to 234.0, the highest value since July 2022, when it stood at 239.6. It provides even further evidence that inflation is embedded within this economy and bubbling up again. The used car index price is up 7.5% since the November lower. This type of data will probably feed into the inflation expectations continuing to rise.Inflation swaps have risen dramatically since the CPI report last week. The February CPI inflation now sees inflation at 6.01%, which is up from 5.78% on January 13, the day before the CPI report. Meanwhile, the March CPI inflation swap is trading at 4.98%, up from 4.85% the day before the CPI report. These inflation swaps tell us that the market expects inflation to be persistently higher than previously expected and that expectations for that fast roll-off in data may be far slower than expected.BloombergEven worse, the pipe dream that inflation would hit 2% by June is long gone. Inflation swaps for June are now 2.8%, up 80 bps from the January 9 low of 2.03%.BloombergThe PCE report is expected to come on Friday as well, showing that inflation in January will also be hot. PCE month-over-month in January is forecast to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month from 0.1% and be up by 5% year-over-year, in line with the December reading. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month versus an increase of 0.3% in December and 4.3% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in December. That would undoubtedly be a big blow again to the hope that inflation would ride off into the sunset.But more importantly, this presents a real problem to the bullish narrative because the higher inflation stays, the higher rates will have to go. Historically, the year-over-year PCE is still more than 1.15% above the 30-year Treasury rate. That has only happened two other times in recent history, in the fall of 1979 and the summer of 1980, and it was brief, and the PCE year-over-year was just 0.3% above the 30-year rate. The inflation rate hasn't exceeded the 30-year Treasury in modern history.BloombergHowever, long-term rates have been slow to rise because the market has believed that inflation would be fast to come down. But the longer inflation stays high, and the slower it takes to fall, the more likely it becomes that long-term rates will rise above the inflation.On average, the 30-year rate has traded 3.12% above the PCE inflation rate, implying an 8.12% 30-year rate, assuming PCE comes in at 5% this week. So either inflation needs to start falling fast, or long-term rates will have to head much higher soon.BloombergThis would have grave implications for the equity market that ran in front of the disinflation narrative. While it is not incorrect to believe that there is a disinflationary narrative because inflation is slowing, the question is how long it will take to come down and sticky it will be in that process. The longer it takes for inflation to come down to the Fed's 2% target, the more likely it is that rates on the long end of the curve will have to rise and the more damage that will cause to stock valuation in the long run.Based on the data that continues to roll in, it appears the bulls will be wrong once again, just like they have been so many times since the beginning of 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924828332,"gmtCreate":1672226541528,"gmtModify":1676538655832,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Run while you have chance.","listText":"Run while you have chance.","text":"Run while you have chance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924828332","repostId":"1189684428","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189684428","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672225487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189684428?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-28 19:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Rebounded 2.6% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189684428","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Cathie Wood bought 25,147 shares of the company at an estimated valuation of about $2.7 million. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock rebounded 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p>On a day <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc</a> stock dropped to over two-year lows, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management took the opportunity to load up on the EV maker’s shares, displaying its unflinching trust in the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e999900e8c2f56c055cd968f2b36cb\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ARK’s flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), bought 25,147 shares of the company at an estimated valuation of about $2.7 million. Shares of Tesla closed 11.41% lower on Tuesday after a Reuters report indicated the company was intending to run a reduced production schedule in January at its Shanghai plant causing concerns over demand.</p><p>The company’s Shanghai plant accounted for over half of its output in the first three quarters of 2022. Based on forecasts for the fourth quarter, analysts expect output to fall short of its goal by about 45%.</p><p>Since mid-December, Wood’s funds have loaded up over 214,000 shares of the EV maker.</p><p>Tesla is the third largest holding of ARKK with a weight of 6.46% while it is the second largest holding of the ARK Autonomous Tech. &amp; Robotics ETF (ARKQ) with a weight of 7.7%, according to the latest data available on the company’s website.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Rebounded 2.6% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Rebounded 2.6% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-28 19:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock rebounded 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p>On a day <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc</a> stock dropped to over two-year lows, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management took the opportunity to load up on the EV maker’s shares, displaying its unflinching trust in the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e999900e8c2f56c055cd968f2b36cb\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ARK’s flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), bought 25,147 shares of the company at an estimated valuation of about $2.7 million. Shares of Tesla closed 11.41% lower on Tuesday after a Reuters report indicated the company was intending to run a reduced production schedule in January at its Shanghai plant causing concerns over demand.</p><p>The company’s Shanghai plant accounted for over half of its output in the first three quarters of 2022. Based on forecasts for the fourth quarter, analysts expect output to fall short of its goal by about 45%.</p><p>Since mid-December, Wood’s funds have loaded up over 214,000 shares of the EV maker.</p><p>Tesla is the third largest holding of ARKK with a weight of 6.46% while it is the second largest holding of the ARK Autonomous Tech. &amp; Robotics ETF (ARKQ) with a weight of 7.7%, according to the latest data available on the company’s website.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189684428","content_text":"Tesla stock rebounded 2.6% in premarket trading.On a day Tesla Inc stock dropped to over two-year lows, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management took the opportunity to load up on the EV maker’s shares, displaying its unflinching trust in the company.ARK’s flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), bought 25,147 shares of the company at an estimated valuation of about $2.7 million. Shares of Tesla closed 11.41% lower on Tuesday after a Reuters report indicated the company was intending to run a reduced production schedule in January at its Shanghai plant causing concerns over demand.The company’s Shanghai plant accounted for over half of its output in the first three quarters of 2022. Based on forecasts for the fourth quarter, analysts expect output to fall short of its goal by about 45%.Since mid-December, Wood’s funds have loaded up over 214,000 shares of the EV maker.Tesla is the third largest holding of ARKK with a weight of 6.46% while it is the second largest holding of the ARK Autonomous Tech. & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) with a weight of 7.7%, according to the latest data available on the company’s website.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":202623067947096,"gmtCreate":1690507056356,"gmtModify":1690507060303,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","listText":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","text":"Should let it go up for 30 days to curb inflation. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202623067947096","repostId":"2354525277","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943163875,"gmtCreate":1679285828997,"gmtModify":1679285832781,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","listText":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","text":"Lol. Till more bank collapse. Then a total reset to the whole economy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943163875","repostId":"1124635791","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124635791","pubTimestamp":1679284873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124635791?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-20 12:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Raise Rates This Week And Signal For Many More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124635791","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe Fed should follow the ECB's approach and hike rates by 25 bps.The Fed has gone on and on ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The Fed should follow the ECB&#39;s approach and hike rates by 25 bps.</li><li>The Fed has gone on and on about the importance of price stability.</li><li>Now is the time for them to prove how important price stability is.</li></ul><p>This week, the Federal Reserve meeting places the Fed in what some call a difficult situation. They can either stick to their initial plan of raising rates by another 25 basis points and signaling more hikes in the future, or they can capitulate, do nothing, and maintain the December dot plot.</p><p>Before the Silicon Valley Bank incident, it was a straightforward decision for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal a peak terminal rate of approximately 5.50%. However, following the news of Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s failure, investors seem perplexed.</p><p><b>Two Different Directions</b></p><p>Two distinct forces are at play here, complicating matters. However, if the Fed follows the European Central Bank&#39;s example, the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal that more hikes are on the horizon. After all, the President of the New York Fed stated in November that &#34;using monetary policy to mitigate financial stability vulnerabilities can lead to unfavorable outcomes for the economy.&#34;</p><p>There are two aspects to consider: price stability and financial stability. It appears that the Fed has been attempting to control the pace of the economy and the demand side of the equation through interest rates while using its balance sheet and lending facility to manage the liquidity side of the equation.</p><p>One could argue that there is still too much liquidity in the system, particularly with nearly $2 trillion per day directed to the Fed through the Reverse Repo facility. Fed board member Chris Waller noted on January 20, &#34;Every day firms are handing us over $2 trillion in liquidity they don’t need. They give us reserves. We give them securities. They don’t need the cash.&#34; The reverse repo facility at the New York Fed has maintained a level above $2 trillion throughout the entire Silicon Valley Bank events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f118b499329d97da0825b05f3167204c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>If we are to believe that monetary policy should not be used to address financial stability issues and there is ample liquidity in the system. Then it becomes difficult for the Fed<i>not</i>to raise rates by 25 basis points this week and signal more rate hikes.</p><p><b>Using Its Tools</b></p><p>The Fed also has various tools to ensure banks have the necessary liquidity, including using the discount window and its new Bank Term Funding Program. Additionally, some banks could merely opt to reallocate the tremendous amounts of cash being placed into the reverse repo facility every day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc62dcf1410a19a9df7d6153d09507d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>If it is true that the Fed firmly believes that without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone and that price stability is the foundation for sustained economic and financial stability, then the Fed could and probably should continue to raise rates. At the same time, they can use other tools along with the excess liquidity in the system to ensure that banks have continued access to their needs.</p><p><b>Inflation Is Still High</b></p><p>The &#34;super&#34; core CPI, which is the core CPI excluding housing, rose by 0.5% in February, up from 0.36% in January. On a year-over-year basis, it ticked down to 6.13% from 6.19% in January but remained well above the pre-pandemic trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f485f5959294cbbb9452920ade06c092\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, core CPI remains notably high at 5.54% year-over-year, down slightly from 5.58% in January. Additionally, it increased by 0.45% month-over-month, up from 0.41% in January. It is difficult to argue that inflation has significantly eased in recent months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e4d65c344ff8eedaecca221eaeb15a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Since hitting its lowest point in December, month-over-month core CPI has risen for three consecutive months and at an accelerating pace. This trend is certainly not in line with the Fed&#39;s desired direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de953260316ccd32d384f235a899a276\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>Its Own Problems</b></p><p>Additionally, the problem of Silicon Valley Bank may be specific to the bank itself, as the decisions on how they managed their bonds appeared to be conscious. A Wall Street Journal article noted that the bank allowed $14 billion in hedges to expire, exposing the bank to rising rates and contributing to its financial issues. Furthermore, by mid-2022, the bank indicated in a presentation to investors that it shifted its focus to protecting itself from falling rates. This left the bank exposed to further increases in interest rates. It appears the bank bet on rates dropping and lost.</p><p>It&#39;s not to say that risks do not exist or that other banks might not be vulnerable. However, one would think that with the new Bank Term Funding Program, banks could convert their held-to-maturity assets into the cash they need to alleviate any existing funding pressure.</p><p>If one were to use the market as an overall gauge, it seems that the bad news has been absorbed quite well. According to the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, financial conditions through March 16 have eased since March 10.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e09e5db3cc3d8f56dc2f08cd1d1be6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Remarkably, the average Bloomberg Corporate High Yield Option Adjusted Spread has not widened significantly. It is currently lower than it was in July or September of 2022. Furthermore, it is considerably lower than where it stood during the February 2016 collapse in oil prices and well below the levels experienced during the European debt crisis in 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a3c9c9d91b5494de44749e9e283ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 (SP500) rose 1.4% this past week, while the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) rose 5.8%. Even the Biotech ETF (XBI), which relies heavily on access to capital and is sensitive to lending conditions, rallied by 1.1%. So if there were really worries in markets about the stability of the financial system, one would think risky assets would fall, not rise. Based solely on the equity market reaction, one could argue that the Fed should raise rates by 50 bps on Wednesday because contagion concerns appear not to exist if stocks have a vote and probably demonstrate how much excess liquidity remains.</p><p>Yes, bond yields have fallen, but as discussed earlier this week, this is mechanical due to CTA funds aggressively covering short positions.</p><p><b>The Fed Should Hike</b></p><p>If the Fed remains committed to everything it has stated over the past year regarding the importance of price stability, it still has much more work to do. It should follow the same path that the European Central Bank (ECB) recently took, emphasizing the separation between using monetary policy to address inflation and bank lending facilities to address financial stability risks.</p><p>This would entail the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points and signaling that more rate hikes are coming, with no rate cuts expected in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Raise Rates This Week And Signal For Many More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Raise Rates This Week And Signal For Many More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-20 12:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4588536-the-fed-should-raise-rates-this-week-and-signal-for-many-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe Fed should follow the ECB's approach and hike rates by 25 bps.The Fed has gone on and on about the importance of price stability.Now is the time for them to prove how important price ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4588536-the-fed-should-raise-rates-this-week-and-signal-for-many-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4588536-the-fed-should-raise-rates-this-week-and-signal-for-many-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1124635791","content_text":"SummaryThe Fed should follow the ECB's approach and hike rates by 25 bps.The Fed has gone on and on about the importance of price stability.Now is the time for them to prove how important price stability is.This week, the Federal Reserve meeting places the Fed in what some call a difficult situation. They can either stick to their initial plan of raising rates by another 25 basis points and signaling more hikes in the future, or they can capitulate, do nothing, and maintain the December dot plot.Before the Silicon Valley Bank incident, it was a straightforward decision for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal a peak terminal rate of approximately 5.50%. However, following the news of Silicon Valley Bank's failure, investors seem perplexed.Two Different DirectionsTwo distinct forces are at play here, complicating matters. However, if the Fed follows the European Central Bank's example, the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal that more hikes are on the horizon. After all, the President of the New York Fed stated in November that \"using monetary policy to mitigate financial stability vulnerabilities can lead to unfavorable outcomes for the economy.\"There are two aspects to consider: price stability and financial stability. It appears that the Fed has been attempting to control the pace of the economy and the demand side of the equation through interest rates while using its balance sheet and lending facility to manage the liquidity side of the equation.One could argue that there is still too much liquidity in the system, particularly with nearly $2 trillion per day directed to the Fed through the Reverse Repo facility. Fed board member Chris Waller noted on January 20, \"Every day firms are handing us over $2 trillion in liquidity they don’t need. They give us reserves. We give them securities. They don’t need the cash.\" The reverse repo facility at the New York Fed has maintained a level above $2 trillion throughout the entire Silicon Valley Bank events.BloombergIf we are to believe that monetary policy should not be used to address financial stability issues and there is ample liquidity in the system. Then it becomes difficult for the Fednotto raise rates by 25 basis points this week and signal more rate hikes.Using Its ToolsThe Fed also has various tools to ensure banks have the necessary liquidity, including using the discount window and its new Bank Term Funding Program. Additionally, some banks could merely opt to reallocate the tremendous amounts of cash being placed into the reverse repo facility every day.BloombergIf it is true that the Fed firmly believes that without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone and that price stability is the foundation for sustained economic and financial stability, then the Fed could and probably should continue to raise rates. At the same time, they can use other tools along with the excess liquidity in the system to ensure that banks have continued access to their needs.Inflation Is Still HighThe \"super\" core CPI, which is the core CPI excluding housing, rose by 0.5% in February, up from 0.36% in January. On a year-over-year basis, it ticked down to 6.13% from 6.19% in January but remained well above the pre-pandemic trends.BloombergMeanwhile, core CPI remains notably high at 5.54% year-over-year, down slightly from 5.58% in January. Additionally, it increased by 0.45% month-over-month, up from 0.41% in January. It is difficult to argue that inflation has significantly eased in recent months.BloombergSince hitting its lowest point in December, month-over-month core CPI has risen for three consecutive months and at an accelerating pace. This trend is certainly not in line with the Fed's desired direction.BloombergIts Own ProblemsAdditionally, the problem of Silicon Valley Bank may be specific to the bank itself, as the decisions on how they managed their bonds appeared to be conscious. A Wall Street Journal article noted that the bank allowed $14 billion in hedges to expire, exposing the bank to rising rates and contributing to its financial issues. Furthermore, by mid-2022, the bank indicated in a presentation to investors that it shifted its focus to protecting itself from falling rates. This left the bank exposed to further increases in interest rates. It appears the bank bet on rates dropping and lost.It's not to say that risks do not exist or that other banks might not be vulnerable. However, one would think that with the new Bank Term Funding Program, banks could convert their held-to-maturity assets into the cash they need to alleviate any existing funding pressure.If one were to use the market as an overall gauge, it seems that the bad news has been absorbed quite well. According to the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, financial conditions through March 16 have eased since March 10.BloombergRemarkably, the average Bloomberg Corporate High Yield Option Adjusted Spread has not widened significantly. It is currently lower than it was in July or September of 2022. Furthermore, it is considerably lower than where it stood during the February 2016 collapse in oil prices and well below the levels experienced during the European debt crisis in 2011.BloombergThe S&P 500 (SP500) rose 1.4% this past week, while the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) rose 5.8%. Even the Biotech ETF (XBI), which relies heavily on access to capital and is sensitive to lending conditions, rallied by 1.1%. So if there were really worries in markets about the stability of the financial system, one would think risky assets would fall, not rise. Based solely on the equity market reaction, one could argue that the Fed should raise rates by 50 bps on Wednesday because contagion concerns appear not to exist if stocks have a vote and probably demonstrate how much excess liquidity remains.Yes, bond yields have fallen, but as discussed earlier this week, this is mechanical due to CTA funds aggressively covering short positions.The Fed Should HikeIf the Fed remains committed to everything it has stated over the past year regarding the importance of price stability, it still has much more work to do. It should follow the same path that the European Central Bank (ECB) recently took, emphasizing the separation between using monetary policy to address inflation and bank lending facilities to address financial stability risks.This would entail the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points and signaling that more rate hikes are coming, with no rate cuts expected in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584911736417489","authorId":"3584911736417489","name":"Fly High","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8572d7c834f14d421f65ad1ce935d0c8","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]","text":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]","html":"More banks will face run on deposits and US financial crisis... Spread globally expected.... [Spurting]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957395780,"gmtCreate":1676984487541,"gmtModify":1676984491531,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's short it now.","listText":"Let's short it now.","text":"Let's short it now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957395780","repostId":"2313707349","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2313707349","pubTimestamp":1676980069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2313707349?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-21 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Punishes Shorts-Sellers With Losses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313707349","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Tesla shorts have paper losses of $7.2 billion: S3 PartnersApple, Meta, Amazon rallies also weighing","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Tesla shorts have paper losses of $7.2 billion: S3 Partners</li><li>Apple, Meta, Amazon rallies also weighing on short sellers</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8117c91b7c84ca105317a8e0e83712a2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla has surged 69% so far in 2023. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg</span></p><p>The surge in technology stocks that’s caused renewed losses for short sellers this year looks to be running out of steam, encouraging bears to maintain their bets against long-time targets such as Tesla Inc., Apple Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms Inc.</a></p><p>Ten of the most-shorted stocks this year delivered almost $17 billion in combined mark-to-market losses for bears through Thursday, according to data-analytics firm S3 Partners. Tesla, which has surged 69% so far in 2023, leads the group by dealing a $7.2 billion blow to traders shorting the stock. The electric-car maker is followed by Nvidia Corp., Apple, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff795aa0e3e7156f3ac6b280292ebbc6\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The recent pain for short sellers is in contrast to 2022 when combined paper gains from the top 10 bearish bets were $57 billion, according to S3. Investors last year punished the most speculative companies, such as those with elevated price-earnings ratios, as interest-rate hikes sapped the market’s risk appetite.</p><p>“If you shorted unprofitable names with high PEs you made a lot of money; if you are short right now you are getting squeezed real hard,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. He’s co-manager of the Steward Equity Market Neutral Fund, which had short positions in more than 80 companies, including software developers <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> and Cloudflare Inc., as of Dec. 31.</p><p>Tesla has always been a big short-seller target. At the end of last year, it was the most-shorted stock and traders who had bet against it were sitting on paper gains of about $16 billion, according to S3.</p><p>Things changed this year as appetite returned for the growth and tech stocks that slumped in 2022. The stock has surged this year and the Nasdaq 100 Index flirted with bull-market territory.</p><p>Yet skeptics say this rally will soon fizzle out, making many highly valued stocks attractive short-seller targets again.</p><p>The market’s valuation is full, growth drivers at big tech companies have been slowing and their stocks are “still extremely expensive,” said Brad Lamensdorf, a manager of the AdvisorShares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDGE\">Ranger Equity Bear ETF</a>.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 trades at 23 times forward earnings, up from about 19 times four months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, results from the largest technology and internet companies showed that Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com and Meta missed estimates by an average of about 8%, according to data from Bank of America.</p><p>“The risk-reward is very poor in the market, which makes hedging or short selling attractive,” said Lamensdorf.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Punishes Shorts-Sellers With Losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Punishes Shorts-Sellers With Losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 19:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/tesla-leads-shorts-seller-losses-as-bears-hold-on-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla shorts have paper losses of $7.2 billion: S3 PartnersApple, Meta, Amazon rallies also weighing on short sellersTesla has surged 69% so far in 2023. Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergThe surge in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/tesla-leads-shorts-seller-losses-as-bears-hold-on-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/tesla-leads-shorts-seller-losses-as-bears-hold-on-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313707349","content_text":"Tesla shorts have paper losses of $7.2 billion: S3 PartnersApple, Meta, Amazon rallies also weighing on short sellersTesla has surged 69% so far in 2023. Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergThe surge in technology stocks that’s caused renewed losses for short sellers this year looks to be running out of steam, encouraging bears to maintain their bets against long-time targets such as Tesla Inc., Apple Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc.Ten of the most-shorted stocks this year delivered almost $17 billion in combined mark-to-market losses for bears through Thursday, according to data-analytics firm S3 Partners. Tesla, which has surged 69% so far in 2023, leads the group by dealing a $7.2 billion blow to traders shorting the stock. The electric-car maker is followed by Nvidia Corp., Apple, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.The recent pain for short sellers is in contrast to 2022 when combined paper gains from the top 10 bearish bets were $57 billion, according to S3. Investors last year punished the most speculative companies, such as those with elevated price-earnings ratios, as interest-rate hikes sapped the market’s risk appetite.“If you shorted unprofitable names with high PEs you made a lot of money; if you are short right now you are getting squeezed real hard,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. He’s co-manager of the Steward Equity Market Neutral Fund, which had short positions in more than 80 companies, including software developers Palantir Technologies Inc. and Cloudflare Inc., as of Dec. 31.Tesla has always been a big short-seller target. At the end of last year, it was the most-shorted stock and traders who had bet against it were sitting on paper gains of about $16 billion, according to S3.Things changed this year as appetite returned for the growth and tech stocks that slumped in 2022. The stock has surged this year and the Nasdaq 100 Index flirted with bull-market territory.Yet skeptics say this rally will soon fizzle out, making many highly valued stocks attractive short-seller targets again.The market’s valuation is full, growth drivers at big tech companies have been slowing and their stocks are “still extremely expensive,” said Brad Lamensdorf, a manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF.The Nasdaq 100 trades at 23 times forward earnings, up from about 19 times four months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, results from the largest technology and internet companies showed that Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com and Meta missed estimates by an average of about 8%, according to data from Bank of America.“The risk-reward is very poor in the market, which makes hedging or short selling attractive,” said Lamensdorf.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300907238936768,"gmtCreate":1714483186736,"gmtModify":1714483314237,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?","listText":"LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?","text":"LOL. Means Fed is good for nothing?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300907238936768","repostId":"2431394980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2431394980","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1714477589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2431394980?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-30 19:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431394980","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels \"do nothing, and everything will be done\" could sum up the Federal Reserve's latest approach to interest-rate policy.Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.The Fed's rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed's expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and \"bumpy\" fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of r","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels &#34;do nothing, and everything will be done&#34; could sum up the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest approach to interest-rate policy.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.</p><p>Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.</p><p>With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed&#39;s policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here&#39;s what to watch:</p><h2 id=\"id_1498624758\">The inflation setback</h2><p>Since officials&#39; meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.</p><p>In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.</p><p>Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had &#34;clearly not given us greater confidence&#34; that inflation would continue declining to 2% &#34;and instead indicate that it&#39;s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58ac79df25e9e0cc51876a3d5a5ba665\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed&#39;s expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and &#34;bumpy&#34; fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.</p><p>A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a &#34;bumpy&#34; path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.</p><h2 id=\"id_2135524953\">Rate policy remains &#34;well-positioned&#34;</h2><p>Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.</p><p>Even though officials won&#39;t submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday&#39;s meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.</p><p>At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.</p><p>&#34;Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,&#34; Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c677b4f92d37f945481eacde52c31cb2\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy&#39;s momentum.</p><p>If inflation stays firm &#34;that is what they will want to see, ultimately, &#34; said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.</p><h2 id=\"id_1610720027\">Low risks of a hawkish pivot</h2><p>The difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the &#34;if/then&#34; statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don&#39;t anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.</p><p>To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.</p><p>But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.</p><p>A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.</p><h2 id=\"id_2652152856\">The balance sheet</h2><p>Fed officials have said they could announce &#34;fairly soon&#34; their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.</p><p>At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to &#34;run off&#34; its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.</p><p>Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.</p><p>At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff &#34;by roughly half.&#34; Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn&#39;t change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.</p><p>The latest changes aren&#39;t related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.</p><p>The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don&#39;t know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-30 19:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels &#34;do nothing, and everything will be done&#34; could sum up the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest approach to interest-rate policy.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.</p><p>Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.</p><p>With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed&#39;s policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here&#39;s what to watch:</p><h2 id=\"id_1498624758\">The inflation setback</h2><p>Since officials&#39; meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.</p><p>In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.</p><p>Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had &#34;clearly not given us greater confidence&#34; that inflation would continue declining to 2% &#34;and instead indicate that it&#39;s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58ac79df25e9e0cc51876a3d5a5ba665\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed&#39;s expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and &#34;bumpy&#34; fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.</p><p>A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a &#34;bumpy&#34; path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.</p><h2 id=\"id_2135524953\">Rate policy remains &#34;well-positioned&#34;</h2><p>Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.</p><p>Even though officials won&#39;t submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday&#39;s meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.</p><p>At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.</p><p>&#34;Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,&#34; Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c677b4f92d37f945481eacde52c31cb2\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy&#39;s momentum.</p><p>If inflation stays firm &#34;that is what they will want to see, ultimately, &#34; said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.</p><h2 id=\"id_1610720027\">Low risks of a hawkish pivot</h2><p>The difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the &#34;if/then&#34; statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don&#39;t anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.</p><p>To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.</p><p>But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.</p><p>A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.</p><h2 id=\"id_2652152856\">The balance sheet</h2><p>Fed officials have said they could announce &#34;fairly soon&#34; their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.</p><p>At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to &#34;run off&#34; its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.</p><p>Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.</p><p>At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff &#34;by roughly half.&#34; Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn&#39;t change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.</p><p>The latest changes aren&#39;t related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.</p><p>The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don&#39;t know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1215":"特殊消费者服务",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2431394980","content_text":"By Nick TimiraosAn ancient Chinese proverb that counsels \"do nothing, and everything will be done\" could sum up the Federal Reserve's latest approach to interest-rate policy.Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed's policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here's what to watch:The inflation setbackSince officials' meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had \"clearly not given us greater confidence\" that inflation would continue declining to 2% \"and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.\"The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.The Fed's rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed's expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and \"bumpy\" fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a \"bumpy\" path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.Rate policy remains \"well-positioned\"Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.Even though officials won't submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday's meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.\"Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,\" Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy's momentum.If inflation stays firm \"that is what they will want to see, ultimately, \" said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.Low risks of a hawkish pivotThe difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the \"if/then\" statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don't anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.A key measure on wages will be released Tuesday morning by the Labor Department, which will report the employment-cost index for the first quarter. Fed officials consider that measure the most comprehensive measure of pay growth. Signs that wage pressures have continued to ease would likely allay concerns about stickier service-sector inflation.The balance sheetFed officials have said they could announce \"fairly soon\" their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to \"run off\" its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff \"by roughly half.\" Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn't change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.The latest changes aren't related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don't know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943688032,"gmtCreate":1679407490827,"gmtModify":1679407495440,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.&nbsp;","listText":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.&nbsp;","text":"Sibeh funny. People who lead need to be decisive and have good foresight.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943688032","repostId":"2321566653","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2321566653","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1679386155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2321566653?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-21 16:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Will Either Pause Or Hike Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points. What Are the Pros and Cons of Each Approach?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321566653","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"'Fed decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation'The Federa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>&#39;Fed decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation&#39;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ad09266cbdd6fff0c6be313c6bd4f6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The Federal Reserve, chaired by Jerome Powell, will meet on Wednesday. In a rarity, the outcome regarding an interest-rate hike is unclear.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and, for once, the outcome is unclear.</p><p>This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.</p><p>Fed officials, starting with former chair Ben Bernanke, have perfected the art of having the market price in what the central bank will do -- at least regarding interest rates -- at each upcoming meeting. That has happened 100% of the time, Bianco said on Twitter.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s meeting this week is different because it follows the sudden collapse of confidence in the U.S. banking system following the government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank as well as the tremors around the world that have led to the shotgun wedding of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse and its longtime rival, UBS.</p><p>At the moment, the market probabilities are 73% for a quarter-percentage-point move and 27%  for no move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market seems to be growing in confidence of a hike, analysts said, based on movements on the front end of the curve.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s decision will come on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern and will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</p><p>&#34;Depending on your perspective, the Fed&#39;s decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation from the markets,&#34; said Ian Katz, a financial sector analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.</p><p>Here are the pros and cons for both a pause and a 25-basis-point hike.</p><h2>The case for and against a pause</h2><p>The main rationale for a pause is that the banking system is under stress.</p><p>&#34;While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient. We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now,&#34; said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients Monday morning</p><p>Former New York Fed President William Dudley said he would recommend a pause. &#34;The case for zero is &#39;do no harm,&#39;&#34; he said.</p><p>The case against a pause is that it could spark more worries about the banking system.</p><p>&#34;I think if they pause, they are going to have to explain exactly what they are seeing, what is giving them more concern. I am not sure a pause is comforting,&#34; said former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson in a television interview on Monday</p><h2>The case for and against a 25-basis-point hike</h2><p>The main reason for a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, to a range of 4.75%-5%, is that it could project confidence.</p><p>&#34;What you need from policymakers is steady hands, steady ship,&#34; said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC. &#34;You don&#39;t need overaction ... flip-flopping around in projections or opinions.&#34;</p><p>The Fed should say that it has managed to contain confidence so far and that &#34;we can press ahead with the inflation fight,&#34; he added.</p><p>Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he didn&#39;t think &#34;the recent bank failures pose systemic risks to the broad financial system and economy.&#34;</p><p>He noted that &#34;inflation is still running hot&#34; and the Fed has better ways to alleviate banking-sector stress than interest rates.</p><p>The case against hiking is that doing so could further exacerbate concerns about the stability of the banking sector.</p><p>&#34;A rate hike now might have to be quickly reversed to deal with a deeper, less contained recession and disinflation. Why would the Fed raise rates when it may be forced to cut rates so much sooner than previously hoped?&#34; asked Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.</p><p>Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said he thinks economic activity is slowing, which gives the Fed time.</p><p>&#34;There is no rush to hike. We are not going to see hyperinflation as a result,&#34; he said.</p><p>Stocks  rose Monday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note  inched up to 3.46%, still well below the 4% level seen prior to the banking crisis.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Will Either Pause Or Hike Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points. What Are the Pros and Cons of Each Approach?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Will Either Pause Or Hike Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points. What Are the Pros and Cons of Each Approach?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-21 16:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>&#39;Fed decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation&#39;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ad09266cbdd6fff0c6be313c6bd4f6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The Federal Reserve, chaired by Jerome Powell, will meet on Wednesday. In a rarity, the outcome regarding an interest-rate hike is unclear.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and, for once, the outcome is unclear.</p><p>This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.</p><p>Fed officials, starting with former chair Ben Bernanke, have perfected the art of having the market price in what the central bank will do -- at least regarding interest rates -- at each upcoming meeting. That has happened 100% of the time, Bianco said on Twitter.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s meeting this week is different because it follows the sudden collapse of confidence in the U.S. banking system following the government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank as well as the tremors around the world that have led to the shotgun wedding of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse and its longtime rival, UBS.</p><p>At the moment, the market probabilities are 73% for a quarter-percentage-point move and 27%  for no move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market seems to be growing in confidence of a hike, analysts said, based on movements on the front end of the curve.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s decision will come on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern and will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</p><p>&#34;Depending on your perspective, the Fed&#39;s decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation from the markets,&#34; said Ian Katz, a financial sector analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.</p><p>Here are the pros and cons for both a pause and a 25-basis-point hike.</p><h2>The case for and against a pause</h2><p>The main rationale for a pause is that the banking system is under stress.</p><p>&#34;While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient. We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now,&#34; said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients Monday morning</p><p>Former New York Fed President William Dudley said he would recommend a pause. &#34;The case for zero is &#39;do no harm,&#39;&#34; he said.</p><p>The case against a pause is that it could spark more worries about the banking system.</p><p>&#34;I think if they pause, they are going to have to explain exactly what they are seeing, what is giving them more concern. I am not sure a pause is comforting,&#34; said former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson in a television interview on Monday</p><h2>The case for and against a 25-basis-point hike</h2><p>The main reason for a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, to a range of 4.75%-5%, is that it could project confidence.</p><p>&#34;What you need from policymakers is steady hands, steady ship,&#34; said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC. &#34;You don&#39;t need overaction ... flip-flopping around in projections or opinions.&#34;</p><p>The Fed should say that it has managed to contain confidence so far and that &#34;we can press ahead with the inflation fight,&#34; he added.</p><p>Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he didn&#39;t think &#34;the recent bank failures pose systemic risks to the broad financial system and economy.&#34;</p><p>He noted that &#34;inflation is still running hot&#34; and the Fed has better ways to alleviate banking-sector stress than interest rates.</p><p>The case against hiking is that doing so could further exacerbate concerns about the stability of the banking sector.</p><p>&#34;A rate hike now might have to be quickly reversed to deal with a deeper, less contained recession and disinflation. Why would the Fed raise rates when it may be forced to cut rates so much sooner than previously hoped?&#34; asked Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.</p><p>Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said he thinks economic activity is slowing, which gives the Fed time.</p><p>&#34;There is no rush to hike. We are not going to see hyperinflation as a result,&#34; he said.</p><p>Stocks  rose Monday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note  inched up to 3.46%, still well below the 4% level seen prior to the banking crisis.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321566653","content_text":"'Fed decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation'The Federal Reserve, chaired by Jerome Powell, will meet on Wednesday. In a rarity, the outcome regarding an interest-rate hike is unclear.The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and, for once, the outcome is unclear.This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.Fed officials, starting with former chair Ben Bernanke, have perfected the art of having the market price in what the central bank will do -- at least regarding interest rates -- at each upcoming meeting. That has happened 100% of the time, Bianco said on Twitter.The Fed's meeting this week is different because it follows the sudden collapse of confidence in the U.S. banking system following the government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank as well as the tremors around the world that have led to the shotgun wedding of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse and its longtime rival, UBS.At the moment, the market probabilities are 73% for a quarter-percentage-point move and 27%  for no move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market seems to be growing in confidence of a hike, analysts said, based on movements on the front end of the curve.The Fed's decision will come on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern and will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.\"Depending on your perspective, the Fed's decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation from the markets,\" said Ian Katz, a financial sector analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.Here are the pros and cons for both a pause and a 25-basis-point hike.The case for and against a pauseThe main rationale for a pause is that the banking system is under stress.\"While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient. We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now,\" said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients Monday morningFormer New York Fed President William Dudley said he would recommend a pause. \"The case for zero is 'do no harm,'\" he said.The case against a pause is that it could spark more worries about the banking system.\"I think if they pause, they are going to have to explain exactly what they are seeing, what is giving them more concern. I am not sure a pause is comforting,\" said former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson in a television interview on MondayThe case for and against a 25-basis-point hikeThe main reason for a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, to a range of 4.75%-5%, is that it could project confidence.\"What you need from policymakers is steady hands, steady ship,\" said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC. \"You don't need overaction ... flip-flopping around in projections or opinions.\"The Fed should say that it has managed to contain confidence so far and that \"we can press ahead with the inflation fight,\" he added.Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he didn't think \"the recent bank failures pose systemic risks to the broad financial system and economy.\"He noted that \"inflation is still running hot\" and the Fed has better ways to alleviate banking-sector stress than interest rates.The case against hiking is that doing so could further exacerbate concerns about the stability of the banking sector.\"A rate hike now might have to be quickly reversed to deal with a deeper, less contained recession and disinflation. Why would the Fed raise rates when it may be forced to cut rates so much sooner than previously hoped?\" asked Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said he thinks economic activity is slowing, which gives the Fed time.\"There is no rush to hike. We are not going to see hyperinflation as a result,\" he said.Stocks  rose Monday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note  inched up to 3.46%, still well below the 4% level seen prior to the banking crisis.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574766125413757","authorId":"3574766125413757","name":"Fyf","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4789a0e344ba7e3694a4eef335694cd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar","text":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar","html":"Are you Malaysian? The word sibeh is very familiar"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956286544,"gmtCreate":1674014459188,"gmtModify":1676538916352,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Means gonna dip soon?","listText":"Means gonna dip soon?","text":"Means gonna dip soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956286544","repostId":"2304782485","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566532164444643","authorId":"3566532164444643","name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"After earnings as usual","text":"After earnings as usual","html":"After earnings as usual"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943147399,"gmtCreate":1679314330712,"gmtModify":1679314335381,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's mark their words.&nbsp; WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","listText":"Let's mark their words.&nbsp; WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","text":"Let's mark their words. WILL NOT HIKE RATES THIS WEEK.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943147399","repostId":"1116011777","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116011777","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679311539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116011777?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-20 19:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says the Fed Will Not Hike Rates This Week Because of Banking System Stress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116011777","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Goldman Sachs said the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates on Wednesday as most of Wall Street","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Goldman Sachs said the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates on Wednesday as most of Wall Street expects because of the emerging banking crisis, CNBC reported.</p><p>“We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system,” Goldman economists wrote in a note Monday. “While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient.”</p><p>As of Friday, most economists expected the Fed to hike by a quarter percentage point this week, not wanting to delay its inflation fight despite the upheaval in the financial sector.</p><p>“This would mean taking a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem,” the Goldman note stated. “The inflation problem actually looks less urgent now than last summer because near-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply and long-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.”</p><p>The Fed’s current target range is 4.5% to 4.75% following a quarter percentage point increase last month before the banking stress came to light.</p><p>After this pause, Goldman expects the Fed to resume hiking at its next meeting in May by a quarter percentage point and tack on two more quarter-point increases in June and July.</p><p>Markets still largely expect the central bank to hike following this week’s two-day meeting. Futures traders assigned a 65% chance of a quarter-point increase, according to CME Group calculations Monday morning.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Says the Fed Will Not Hike Rates This Week Because of Banking System Stress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says the Fed Will Not Hike Rates This Week Because of Banking System Stress\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-20 19:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Goldman Sachs said the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates on Wednesday as most of Wall Street expects because of the emerging banking crisis, CNBC reported.</p><p>“We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system,” Goldman economists wrote in a note Monday. “While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient.”</p><p>As of Friday, most economists expected the Fed to hike by a quarter percentage point this week, not wanting to delay its inflation fight despite the upheaval in the financial sector.</p><p>“This would mean taking a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem,” the Goldman note stated. “The inflation problem actually looks less urgent now than last summer because near-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply and long-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.”</p><p>The Fed’s current target range is 4.5% to 4.75% following a quarter percentage point increase last month before the banking stress came to light.</p><p>After this pause, Goldman expects the Fed to resume hiking at its next meeting in May by a quarter percentage point and tack on two more quarter-point increases in June and July.</p><p>Markets still largely expect the central bank to hike following this week’s two-day meeting. Futures traders assigned a 65% chance of a quarter-point increase, according to CME Group calculations Monday morning.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116011777","content_text":"Goldman Sachs said the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates on Wednesday as most of Wall Street expects because of the emerging banking crisis, CNBC reported.“We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system,” Goldman economists wrote in a note Monday. “While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient.”As of Friday, most economists expected the Fed to hike by a quarter percentage point this week, not wanting to delay its inflation fight despite the upheaval in the financial sector.“This would mean taking a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem,” the Goldman note stated. “The inflation problem actually looks less urgent now than last summer because near-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply and long-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.”The Fed’s current target range is 4.5% to 4.75% following a quarter percentage point increase last month before the banking stress came to light.After this pause, Goldman expects the Fed to resume hiking at its next meeting in May by a quarter percentage point and tack on two more quarter-point increases in June and July.Markets still largely expect the central bank to hike following this week’s two-day meeting. Futures traders assigned a 65% chance of a quarter-point increase, according to CME Group calculations Monday morning.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924068707,"gmtCreate":1672139569109,"gmtModify":1676538640486,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Close eyes short all the way.","listText":"Close eyes short all the way.","text":"Close eyes short all the way.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924068707","repostId":"1142500711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142500711","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672138150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142500711?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-27 18:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142500711","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4136c6b0da5a3322087d2fd222242768\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Shares Dropped 2% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-27 18:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4136c6b0da5a3322087d2fd222242768\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142500711","content_text":"Tesla shares dropped 2% in premarket trading. The stock has fallen more than 65% this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":269443518882048,"gmtCreate":1706798951413,"gmtModify":1706798955865,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le.&nbsp; Attack.","listText":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le.&nbsp; Attack.","text":"Like that say means got chance to cheong le. Attack.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/269443518882048","repostId":"2407307245","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2407307245","pubTimestamp":1706787000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2407307245?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-01 19:30","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Analysis By An User","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2407307245","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Sea Limited operates three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, focusing on digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital payments and financial services.Garena's revenue has been declining","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sea Limited operates three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, focusing on digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital payments and financial services.</p></li><li><p>Garena&#39;s revenue has been declining, while Shopee has become the main source of sales for Sea Limited.</p></li><li><p>The company might not be as cheaply valued as it seems. More than a 5% net income margin seems unlikely in this business.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd10451e91a7f82b95ea9e296a739672\" alt=\"kokkai\" title=\"kokkai\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>kokkai</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3388058985\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>I am a user of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) main revenue generator, the e-commerce store Shopee. I like the app and am optimistic about its future, but I am still cautious about investing in the share. Currently, the company is still on the verge of profitability, which means the investor suffers from large fluctuations in the share price and an increasing number of outstanding shares. Generally, the stock valuation is challenging as it is not possible to calculate a P/E ratio. My alternative calculation, which assumes a future net income margin of 5%, shows that the valuation is not attractive enough to enter here.</p><h3 id=\"id_1005777186\">Company Overview</h3><p>The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Singapore. It is active throughout Southeast Asia with the online store Shopee and the financial business. The gaming division is accessible worldwide.</p><blockquote><p>Our mission is to better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology. We operate three core businesses across digital entertainment, e-commerce, as well as digital payments and financial services, known as Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, respectively.</p><p>Sea Limited, company profile</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9abf21dace6a8e19aac766794824454\" alt=\"sea limited\" title=\"sea limited\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\"/><span>sea limited</span></p><h3 id=\"id_628844462\">The past: Financial Progress &amp; Trends</h3><p>First, a short overview over a more extended period for revenues, expenses, and net income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967c33e0e6680415a866159dcfe2d707\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I have created this overview of the income statement of the last quarter compared to the previous year, showing where money is spent and how the revenue and cost development is YoY.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f650975e11b1e2652b3f0f62de049f5e\" alt=\"author\" title=\"author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"/><span>author</span></p><p>Overall, the figures are not very impressive, and revenue growth, in particular, has been stagnant for several quarters. But the company has also reduced its costs significantly, resulting in a lower overall loss than the previous year. Sea Limited has been on the verge of profitability for around five quarters. Compared to 2022 and before, this is still a positive development overall, as the company had never made any profit during this time.</p><h3 id=\"id_3667394951\">Their three segments</h3><p>Undoubtedly, many readers are already aware of the various developments in SE&#39;s three segments. However, this analysis would not be complete without looking at these three segments separately.</p><h4 id=\"id_2034055949\">Garena</h4><blockquote><p>Garena is the developer and publisher of Free Fire, a popular mobile battle royale game. Free Fire is one of the largest mobile games in the world.</p><p>sea.com</p></blockquote><p>The company owes its rapidly rising revenue from 2022 onwards primarily to this area. However, as the pandemic flattened out more and more, user numbers and, thus, revenue also fell. Since 2022, however, user numbers have tended to remain relatively constant or fall only slightly, but the number of paying users has decreased, as seen in the following chart. In the last quarter, this segment saw a slight increase in revenue for the first time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0520c94062c4e8cdd37a771536dca41\" alt=\"Investor presentation\" title=\"Investor presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/><span>Investor presentation</span></p><p>Given the total quarterly revenue of over $3.3B, this segment has lost its great importance. Of course, the company is still trying to squeeze out as much money as possible, but the focus has shifted to the other segments.</p><h4 id=\"id_3380274388\">Shopee</h4><p>This is the big online marketplace, the Amazon of Southeast Asia, so to speak, or at least is intended to become so. This is where SE now generates most of its sales: $2.2.B last quarter (+16.2% YoY). SE divides this revenue further into two areas.</p><blockquote><p>Core marketplace revenue, mainly consisting of transaction-based fees and advertising revenues, was up 31.7% year-on-year to US$1.3 billion. Value-added services revenue, mainly consisting of revenues related to logistics services, was down 4.2% year-on-year to US$592.8 million.</p><p>Q3 Results</p></blockquote><p>Shopee is still relatively young. Singapore was its first market in 2015 and since then expanded into numerous Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Sea Limited has, therefore, made clever use of the pandemic. They used the money from the Garmena segment boom and the general stock-market hype to raise a lot of money to push Shopee. In the meantime, the company has freed itself from its dependence on the gaming sector. This is very pleasing for investors, as online games are volatile and fast-moving. A well-known online store is better suited for sustainable revenues.</p><p>However, it must be said that this segment is still clearly unprofitable, although the figures are improving. The following chart shows only the e-commerce area.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47e999d20aff1fb17ad0c54f3b9025e5\" alt=\"Investor presentation\" title=\"Investor presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\"/><span>Investor presentation</span></p><h4 id=\"id_2455520323\">SeaMoney</h4><blockquote><p>SeaMoney offers various digital financial services and products including mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, banking, and insurtech.</p><p>sea.com</p></blockquote><p>I will cover this area quickly; fortunately, it is growing strongly and steadily. This segment now generates just as much revenue as the gaming division.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fabacc1d12cf19c3ef04736256bb9115\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h3 id=\"id_1339260969\">My experience with Shopee</h3><p>I have spent 5 of the last 12 years in Southeast Asia and witnessed the development of e-commerce firsthand. About ten years ago, there was virtually no e-commerce, and it has only started to appear since the pandemic. Even now, the percentage of the online shopping population is significantly lower than in Western countries.</p><p>For example, in 2018, I wouldn&#39;t have even thought of ordering anything online in Thailand or Malaysia. It&#39;s different now, and that&#39;s how many people feel. There is quite a duopoly in most countries: Shopee and Lazada.</p><p>My assessment of Shopee has nothing to do with my stock analysis. Although I have tried both and can&#39;t say why, I only order from Shopee nowadays. Lazada seems even more chaotic and annoying with pop-ups. However, Shopee is also too packed for my taste: the navigation and search work well, but there&#39;s too much on the screen. Nevertheless, I like the app overall, and several Thai people I know also prefer Shopee to Lazada.</p><h3 id=\"id_4251351616\">The present: Valuation &amp; current developments</h3><p>The company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $21.8B. The market cap is $23B, which means the company has more cash than debt. It isn&#39;t easy to assess the valuation as the company is not yet profitable in the long term. In my opinion, the analysts&#39; figures for forward PE are relatively worthless, as we don&#39;t even know whether the company will be profitable at all in the next 12 months. Also, these are non-GAAP numbers, which often look significantly better than the GAAP numbers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3e4c46db297e0d1adf955096da6fc4d\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, the PS ratio and the comparison with other e-commerce companies are interesting in this case.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2074f2a3a4c27da46eb918b8d80c09e8\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>An example calculation for Sea Limited: With annual sales of $13B (the 2023 number) and a net income margin of 5%, this would result in a profit of $650M. That would be $1.14 per outstanding share, and by my calculation, the P/E ratio would be around 35 at the current share price (Amazon has a 3.6% net income margin and Mercado Libre 7.5%).</p><p>Let&#39;s say in 2027, the revenue is $17B. I leave the margin at 5% as more seems unlikely in the e-commerce sector. Then, the net profit would be $850M, and the P/E ratio on today&#39;s share price would be 27. This does not take into account that the number of outstanding shares will probably continue to rise, which is still the case; see below.</p><p>Also, from $13B to $17B is an annual increase of about 7%, i.e., more than recently. In addition to these points, there are also other risks.</p><h2 id=\"id_3716838109\">Risks</h2><p>On the one hand, the gaming division is still tending to flatten out (due to a slight increase in the last quarter, we cannot yet speak of a turnaround). It seems more likely that sales will continue to fall rather than suddenly climb back to 2021 levels.</p><p>The most significant risk overall is the competition. Although e-commerce is a growing market in Southeast Asia and Shopee is currently the leader in many countries, the e-commerce market in Asia is very fast and changing. The following graphic visualizes the emergence of a new potentially powerful competitor due to their already huge user numbers: TikTok.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db87a11feed7ed5b9ab36ca4ae1c454f\" alt=\"businesstimes.com\" title=\"businesstimes.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"/><span>businesstimes.com</span></p><p>Lazada is part of Alibaba (BABA) and has significantly stronger financial possibilities. New companies could also emerge; Southeast Asia is an exciting market for Chinese companies.</p><h2 id=\"id_801398814\">Share dilution, insider trades &amp; SBCs</h2><p>For me, these three things are standard checks I make in every article, as excessive stock dilution and stock-based compensation can put us, shareholders, at a disadvantage. In addition, insider trades sometimes contain valuable info about the confidence of management itself.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caba574426f07e79f9dfbf0c617bbd0a\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I don&#39;t know why the SBCs stopped so abruptly in 2022; maybe there is a lack of data at YCharts. I haven&#39;t found any information on insider sales either.</p><h2 id=\"id_285685190\">Conclusion</h2><p>Overall, I am optimistic about the company&#39;s future and believe it will achieve sustainable profitability. However, I think my sample calculations have shown that the current valuation is not as attractive as it seems at first glance. Overall, there is not enough potential in the share to take the risk. What risk? We have seen it many times: one bad quarter and the share price drops by 20 %. The e-commerce sector in Southeast Asia is still young, and now TikTok has entered the market too. The outlook for SE´s gaming segment is a guessing game, and Shopee is not yet profitable. For my taste, there are more attractive opportunities in the market.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Investor&#39;s Checklist</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Check</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Description</strong></p></td></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Rising revenues?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>yes, but slowing</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Increasing over longer periods</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Improving margins?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>the stock hasn´t reached sustainable profitability yet</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Possible competitive edge</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PEG ratio below one?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>no</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PEG ratio below one may suggest undervaluation</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Sufficient cash reserves?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>yes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Vital for the survival &amp; growth, especially of unprofitable companies</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Rewards shareholders?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>no</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Returning capital to shareholders</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Shareholder negatives?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>yes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Actions that disadvantage shareholders</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Stock in an uptrend?</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>no</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Trading above its 200-day moving average?</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Analysis By An User</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Analysis By An User\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-01 19:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666270-sea-limited-analysis-by-an-user><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea Limited operates three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, focusing on digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital payments and financial services.Garena's revenue has been declining...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666270-sea-limited-analysis-by-an-user\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4558":"双十一","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","SG9999006266.SGD":"MANULIFE SINGAPORE EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","SG9999002679.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Balanced SGD","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999001135.SGD":"United ASEAN Fund SGD","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","LU0532188223.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - ASEAN Equity A (acc) SGD","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","SGXZ58947870.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999002620.SGD":"LionGlobal South East Asia SGD","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","SG9999004360.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Thrift Fund SGD","SE":"Sea Ltd","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666270-sea-limited-analysis-by-an-user","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2407307245","content_text":"Sea Limited operates three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, focusing on digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital payments and financial services.Garena's revenue has been declining, while Shopee has become the main source of sales for Sea Limited.The company might not be as cheaply valued as it seems. More than a 5% net income margin seems unlikely in this business.kokkaiInvestment ThesisI am a user of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) main revenue generator, the e-commerce store Shopee. I like the app and am optimistic about its future, but I am still cautious about investing in the share. Currently, the company is still on the verge of profitability, which means the investor suffers from large fluctuations in the share price and an increasing number of outstanding shares. Generally, the stock valuation is challenging as it is not possible to calculate a P/E ratio. My alternative calculation, which assumes a future net income margin of 5%, shows that the valuation is not attractive enough to enter here.Company OverviewThe company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Singapore. It is active throughout Southeast Asia with the online store Shopee and the financial business. The gaming division is accessible worldwide.Our mission is to better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology. We operate three core businesses across digital entertainment, e-commerce, as well as digital payments and financial services, known as Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, respectively.Sea Limited, company profilesea limitedThe past: Financial Progress & TrendsFirst, a short overview over a more extended period for revenues, expenses, and net income.Data by YChartsI have created this overview of the income statement of the last quarter compared to the previous year, showing where money is spent and how the revenue and cost development is YoY.authorOverall, the figures are not very impressive, and revenue growth, in particular, has been stagnant for several quarters. But the company has also reduced its costs significantly, resulting in a lower overall loss than the previous year. Sea Limited has been on the verge of profitability for around five quarters. Compared to 2022 and before, this is still a positive development overall, as the company had never made any profit during this time.Their three segmentsUndoubtedly, many readers are already aware of the various developments in SE's three segments. However, this analysis would not be complete without looking at these three segments separately.GarenaGarena is the developer and publisher of Free Fire, a popular mobile battle royale game. Free Fire is one of the largest mobile games in the world.sea.comThe company owes its rapidly rising revenue from 2022 onwards primarily to this area. However, as the pandemic flattened out more and more, user numbers and, thus, revenue also fell. Since 2022, however, user numbers have tended to remain relatively constant or fall only slightly, but the number of paying users has decreased, as seen in the following chart. In the last quarter, this segment saw a slight increase in revenue for the first time.Investor presentationGiven the total quarterly revenue of over $3.3B, this segment has lost its great importance. Of course, the company is still trying to squeeze out as much money as possible, but the focus has shifted to the other segments.ShopeeThis is the big online marketplace, the Amazon of Southeast Asia, so to speak, or at least is intended to become so. This is where SE now generates most of its sales: $2.2.B last quarter (+16.2% YoY). SE divides this revenue further into two areas.Core marketplace revenue, mainly consisting of transaction-based fees and advertising revenues, was up 31.7% year-on-year to US$1.3 billion. Value-added services revenue, mainly consisting of revenues related to logistics services, was down 4.2% year-on-year to US$592.8 million.Q3 ResultsShopee is still relatively young. Singapore was its first market in 2015 and since then expanded into numerous Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Sea Limited has, therefore, made clever use of the pandemic. They used the money from the Garmena segment boom and the general stock-market hype to raise a lot of money to push Shopee. In the meantime, the company has freed itself from its dependence on the gaming sector. This is very pleasing for investors, as online games are volatile and fast-moving. A well-known online store is better suited for sustainable revenues.However, it must be said that this segment is still clearly unprofitable, although the figures are improving. The following chart shows only the e-commerce area.Investor presentationSeaMoneySeaMoney offers various digital financial services and products including mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, banking, and insurtech.sea.comI will cover this area quickly; fortunately, it is growing strongly and steadily. This segment now generates just as much revenue as the gaming division.Seeking AlphaMy experience with ShopeeI have spent 5 of the last 12 years in Southeast Asia and witnessed the development of e-commerce firsthand. About ten years ago, there was virtually no e-commerce, and it has only started to appear since the pandemic. Even now, the percentage of the online shopping population is significantly lower than in Western countries.For example, in 2018, I wouldn't have even thought of ordering anything online in Thailand or Malaysia. It's different now, and that's how many people feel. There is quite a duopoly in most countries: Shopee and Lazada.My assessment of Shopee has nothing to do with my stock analysis. Although I have tried both and can't say why, I only order from Shopee nowadays. Lazada seems even more chaotic and annoying with pop-ups. However, Shopee is also too packed for my taste: the navigation and search work well, but there's too much on the screen. Nevertheless, I like the app overall, and several Thai people I know also prefer Shopee to Lazada.The present: Valuation & current developmentsThe company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $21.8B. The market cap is $23B, which means the company has more cash than debt. It isn't easy to assess the valuation as the company is not yet profitable in the long term. In my opinion, the analysts' figures for forward PE are relatively worthless, as we don't even know whether the company will be profitable at all in the next 12 months. Also, these are non-GAAP numbers, which often look significantly better than the GAAP numbers.Data by YChartsHowever, the PS ratio and the comparison with other e-commerce companies are interesting in this case.Data by YChartsAn example calculation for Sea Limited: With annual sales of $13B (the 2023 number) and a net income margin of 5%, this would result in a profit of $650M. That would be $1.14 per outstanding share, and by my calculation, the P/E ratio would be around 35 at the current share price (Amazon has a 3.6% net income margin and Mercado Libre 7.5%).Let's say in 2027, the revenue is $17B. I leave the margin at 5% as more seems unlikely in the e-commerce sector. Then, the net profit would be $850M, and the P/E ratio on today's share price would be 27. This does not take into account that the number of outstanding shares will probably continue to rise, which is still the case; see below.Also, from $13B to $17B is an annual increase of about 7%, i.e., more than recently. In addition to these points, there are also other risks.RisksOn the one hand, the gaming division is still tending to flatten out (due to a slight increase in the last quarter, we cannot yet speak of a turnaround). It seems more likely that sales will continue to fall rather than suddenly climb back to 2021 levels.The most significant risk overall is the competition. Although e-commerce is a growing market in Southeast Asia and Shopee is currently the leader in many countries, the e-commerce market in Asia is very fast and changing. The following graphic visualizes the emergence of a new potentially powerful competitor due to their already huge user numbers: TikTok.businesstimes.comLazada is part of Alibaba (BABA) and has significantly stronger financial possibilities. New companies could also emerge; Southeast Asia is an exciting market for Chinese companies.Share dilution, insider trades & SBCsFor me, these three things are standard checks I make in every article, as excessive stock dilution and stock-based compensation can put us, shareholders, at a disadvantage. In addition, insider trades sometimes contain valuable info about the confidence of management itself.Data by YChartsI don't know why the SBCs stopped so abruptly in 2022; maybe there is a lack of data at YCharts. I haven't found any information on insider sales either.ConclusionOverall, I am optimistic about the company's future and believe it will achieve sustainable profitability. However, I think my sample calculations have shown that the current valuation is not as attractive as it seems at first glance. Overall, there is not enough potential in the share to take the risk. What risk? We have seen it many times: one bad quarter and the share price drops by 20 %. The e-commerce sector in Southeast Asia is still young, and now TikTok has entered the market too. The outlook for SE´s gaming segment is a guessing game, and Shopee is not yet profitable. For my taste, there are more attractive opportunities in the market.Investor's ChecklistCheckDescriptionRising revenues?yes, but slowingIncreasing over longer periodsImproving margins?the stock hasn´t reached sustainable profitability yetPossible competitive edgePEG ratio below one?noPEG ratio below one may suggest undervaluationSufficient cash reserves?yesVital for the survival & growth, especially of unprofitable companiesRewards shareholders?noReturning capital to shareholdersShareholder negatives?yesActions that disadvantage shareholdersStock in an uptrend?noTrading above its 200-day moving average?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":210219292467288,"gmtCreate":1692345387518,"gmtModify":1692345392546,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To normalise at $150.","listText":"To normalise at $150.","text":"To normalise at $150.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210219292467288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":240928063320176,"gmtCreate":1699839292213,"gmtModify":1699839296923,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","listText":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","text":"Like that say sure will surge. Let's watch.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/240928063320176","repostId":"2382474347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2382474347","pubTimestamp":1699837856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2382474347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-13 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2382474347","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sea Limited&#39;s upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok&#39;s significant competitive threat.</p></li><li><p>Analysts will also assess Shopee&#39;s Singles&#39; Day sales momentum as Southeast Asia&#39;s growth continues to slow.</p></li><li><p>Notwithstanding the recent respite as TikTok&#39;s ambitions stalled in Indonesia, the battle is still ongoing in other markets. Shopee could find it increasingly challenging to fend off TikTok&#39;s threat.</p></li><li><p>SE is still valued at a premium, notwithstanding its spectacular collapse. However, investors likely aren&#39;t keen on unsustainable spending as the &#34;free&#34; money era is over.</p></li><li><p>I argue why savvy investors must know when it&#39;s time to fold, as TikTok&#39;s threat is likely here to stay. SE could be dead money at best for a long time.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd10451e91a7f82b95ea9e296a739672\" alt=\"kokkai\" title=\"kokkai\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>kokkai</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3916398362\">TikTok&#39;s Threat Not Fully Extinguished</h2><p>Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is scheduled to report its third-quarter or FQ3 earnings release on November 14. Keen investors should recall the &#34;historic tumble&#34; following the company&#39;s stunning FQ2 release as SE re-tested a critical support level.</p><p>I&#39;m pleased to highlight to holders that SE sellers have failed to regain sufficient momentum to compel it down further. Despite that, the lack of sustained buying momentum from dip buyers suggests investors are likely expecting more assurances from management at its upcoming earnings conference.</p><p>Analysts will also be keen to assess Shopee&#39;s (e-commerce unit) Singles&#39; Day sales momentum as the critical shopping festival comes to an end. Chinese e-commerce retailers have focused on value-conscious consumers to drive volume this year, highlighting the ongoing challenges of bolstering consumer spending in China&#39;s economy.</p><p>I believe Sea Limited and its Southeast Asian peers (Shopee&#39;s most crucial e-commerce market) aren&#39;t immune to the macroeconomic and inflation headwinds. Accordingly, it was reported recently that &#34;Southeast Asia&#39;s internet economy is experiencing its slowest growth on record in 2023.&#34; As such, the region&#39;s e-commerce spending growth estimates have been reduced to 13% from last year&#39;s 20% growth. The reduction in estimates has raised fears of more intense competition and potentially lower structural growth in the medium term.</p><p>As such, investors must be wary of the previous fast-growth internet companies like Sea Limited, which relied on unsustainable consumer subsidies to gain market share rapidly. On that matter of sustainability, investors&#39; hugely negative reaction in Q2 largely resulted from the company&#39;s return to potentially unsustainable spending it embarked on in the years when money was cheap.</p><p>However, that era is expected to be well and truly over as interest rates surge, possibly normalizing at much higher levels. Notwithstanding its market share leadership, Shopee was threatened by TikTok&#39;s (BDNCE) attempt to disrupt its business model with its social commerce-driven e-commerce strategy.</p><p>Sea Limited investors received a respite from the Indonesian government in early October, as Indonesia swiftly banned the ability of TikTok and their social media peers to combine direct e-commerce payments on their platforms. The move was intended to protect Indonesia&#39;s micro, small, and medium enterprises, or MSMEs, as they dealt with the disruption from TikTok&#39;s merchants.</p><p>Analysts lauded the move as helping to lower the impetus for TikTok to chip away at the market leadership of Sea Limited and its e-commerce peers. As a result, the need for sustained shipping subsidies in Shopee&#39;s most crucial market could be reduced. However, it&#39;s critical to note that the Indonesian market represented about 25% of its total GMV. Excluding Indonesia, the region likely accounted for 40% of Shopee&#39;s total GMV, suggesting investors shouldn&#39;t rejoice just yet.</p><p>TikTok&#39;s growing ambitions in the US suggest that the company isn&#39;t afraid to tackle e-commerce behemoth Amazon (AMZN) in its most important market. Its ability to drive e-commerce spending through its social media network moat is a significant competitive advantage that Shoppe could find very hard to defend against. I must recognize that TikTok is a formidable competitor supported by a profitable parent, ByteDance, who seems determined to disrupt what used to be the disruptor in the region: Shopee.</p><h2 id=\"id_4277693492\">Is SE Stock A Buy?</h2><p>Sea Limited investors could point out that the company is not just about Shopee. Its gaming arm and its fintech segment are also crucial growth drivers. However, it&#39;s essential to recognize that Shopee is expected to remain the company&#39;s most important growth driver in the short- and medium-term. With SE valued as a growth stock (assigned an &#34;A-&#34; growth grade and a &#34;D&#34; valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant), the company needs a coherent and sustainable strategy to fend off TikTok&#39;s threat.</p><p>However, I&#39;m not sure what Sea Limited could muster as it&#39;s clear that investors no longer fancy massive spending to justify its market share gains. In other words, investors want Sea Limited to move away from those subsidies. However, TikTok&#39;s network effect moat has been built up with such ferocity and determination that it has a sustainable advantage that Sea Limited could find incredibly challenging to defend against.</p><p>While I&#39;m assured that SE wasn&#39;t battered below the $35 level decisively after its August re-test, I&#39;ve much less confidence in the company&#39;s ability to recover SE&#39;s malaise from here. In a high-interest rate environment, with a determined and capable competitor like TikTok, Shopee is looking increasingly more like the disrupted in time to come. With SE still valued at a premium, it could be dead money at best (in a consolidation zone). I am looking to cut my exposure substantially as I intend to rotate my funds to higher-quality moaty stocks.</p><p>Remember, we aren&#39;t likely heading back to the era of &#34;free&#34; money, which was the foundation of Shopee&#39;s unsustainable spending.</p><p><em>Rating: Downgraded to Hold.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Dead Money At Best - Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-13 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650883-sea-earnings-preview-dead-money-time-to-move-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2382474347","content_text":"Sea Limited's upcoming earnings conference will scrutinize how the company intends to fend off TikTok's significant competitive threat.Analysts will also assess Shopee's Singles' Day sales momentum as Southeast Asia's growth continues to slow.Notwithstanding the recent respite as TikTok's ambitions stalled in Indonesia, the battle is still ongoing in other markets. Shopee could find it increasingly challenging to fend off TikTok's threat.SE is still valued at a premium, notwithstanding its spectacular collapse. However, investors likely aren't keen on unsustainable spending as the \"free\" money era is over.I argue why savvy investors must know when it's time to fold, as TikTok's threat is likely here to stay. SE could be dead money at best for a long time.kokkaiTikTok's Threat Not Fully ExtinguishedSea Limited (NYSE:SE) is scheduled to report its third-quarter or FQ3 earnings release on November 14. Keen investors should recall the \"historic tumble\" following the company's stunning FQ2 release as SE re-tested a critical support level.I'm pleased to highlight to holders that SE sellers have failed to regain sufficient momentum to compel it down further. Despite that, the lack of sustained buying momentum from dip buyers suggests investors are likely expecting more assurances from management at its upcoming earnings conference.Analysts will also be keen to assess Shopee's (e-commerce unit) Singles' Day sales momentum as the critical shopping festival comes to an end. Chinese e-commerce retailers have focused on value-conscious consumers to drive volume this year, highlighting the ongoing challenges of bolstering consumer spending in China's economy.I believe Sea Limited and its Southeast Asian peers (Shopee's most crucial e-commerce market) aren't immune to the macroeconomic and inflation headwinds. Accordingly, it was reported recently that \"Southeast Asia's internet economy is experiencing its slowest growth on record in 2023.\" As such, the region's e-commerce spending growth estimates have been reduced to 13% from last year's 20% growth. The reduction in estimates has raised fears of more intense competition and potentially lower structural growth in the medium term.As such, investors must be wary of the previous fast-growth internet companies like Sea Limited, which relied on unsustainable consumer subsidies to gain market share rapidly. On that matter of sustainability, investors' hugely negative reaction in Q2 largely resulted from the company's return to potentially unsustainable spending it embarked on in the years when money was cheap.However, that era is expected to be well and truly over as interest rates surge, possibly normalizing at much higher levels. Notwithstanding its market share leadership, Shopee was threatened by TikTok's (BDNCE) attempt to disrupt its business model with its social commerce-driven e-commerce strategy.Sea Limited investors received a respite from the Indonesian government in early October, as Indonesia swiftly banned the ability of TikTok and their social media peers to combine direct e-commerce payments on their platforms. The move was intended to protect Indonesia's micro, small, and medium enterprises, or MSMEs, as they dealt with the disruption from TikTok's merchants.Analysts lauded the move as helping to lower the impetus for TikTok to chip away at the market leadership of Sea Limited and its e-commerce peers. As a result, the need for sustained shipping subsidies in Shopee's most crucial market could be reduced. However, it's critical to note that the Indonesian market represented about 25% of its total GMV. Excluding Indonesia, the region likely accounted for 40% of Shopee's total GMV, suggesting investors shouldn't rejoice just yet.TikTok's growing ambitions in the US suggest that the company isn't afraid to tackle e-commerce behemoth Amazon (AMZN) in its most important market. Its ability to drive e-commerce spending through its social media network moat is a significant competitive advantage that Shoppe could find very hard to defend against. I must recognize that TikTok is a formidable competitor supported by a profitable parent, ByteDance, who seems determined to disrupt what used to be the disruptor in the region: Shopee.Is SE Stock A Buy?Sea Limited investors could point out that the company is not just about Shopee. Its gaming arm and its fintech segment are also crucial growth drivers. However, it's essential to recognize that Shopee is expected to remain the company's most important growth driver in the short- and medium-term. With SE valued as a growth stock (assigned an \"A-\" growth grade and a \"D\" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant), the company needs a coherent and sustainable strategy to fend off TikTok's threat.However, I'm not sure what Sea Limited could muster as it's clear that investors no longer fancy massive spending to justify its market share gains. In other words, investors want Sea Limited to move away from those subsidies. However, TikTok's network effect moat has been built up with such ferocity and determination that it has a sustainable advantage that Sea Limited could find incredibly challenging to defend against.While I'm assured that SE wasn't battered below the $35 level decisively after its August re-test, I've much less confidence in the company's ability to recover SE's malaise from here. In a high-interest rate environment, with a determined and capable competitor like TikTok, Shopee is looking increasingly more like the disrupted in time to come. With SE still valued at a premium, it could be dead money at best (in a consolidation zone). I am looking to cut my exposure substantially as I intend to rotate my funds to higher-quality moaty stocks.Remember, we aren't likely heading back to the era of \"free\" money, which was the foundation of Shopee's unsustainable spending.Rating: Downgraded to Hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":201369778434256,"gmtCreate":1690189923670,"gmtModify":1690189927269,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","listText":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","text":"Better crash it. Cheong ah.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/201369778434256","repostId":"1156173048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970480680,"gmtCreate":1684817633040,"gmtModify":1684817637268,"author":{"id":"3575949343225606","authorId":"3575949343225606","name":"Kekemon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acc569fb2b4b8cb1641acae354a1df48","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","listText":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","text":"Lol. So certain. Must buy in already.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970480680","repostId":"2337622107","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}