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Anthropic reported to be launching it's IPO around mid-November with a valuation of above $1.5 trillion. I have to ask. With funds being squeezed and Treasury Bond sales collapsing (10 year yield have had to be raised about 5.2% to keep holder interested), where is the new money goong to come from to support the Anthropic IPO? You have to pay attention to this. Good luck.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Another rocket launch in under a week. SpaceX looks really busy. Wonder how this will show in their next quarterly results.
$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ A sense of caution is happening right now. Treasury yields are crazy high and Micron's share price fell even after posting stellar results. I feel money is being taken off the table now.
It is actually more scary that the market has not reacted worst after seeing this. It can only mean that much of the retail crowd is ignoring real facts and are not realising the true impact on the finance liquidity that this will lead to. And when the impact is felt, the correction of the market won't be just a correction.
The 10-Year Note Hasn’t Had a Quarter This Ugly in Over 3 Decades
What a dissappointing response to an otherwise good result announcement. This is again putting forth the question about valuation and the price-to-perfection theory that is abound. A Blackrock analyst has just made this comment on Bloomberg that Blackrock is pivoting away from the Ai plays. The feeling is, it has already hit the pinnacle value, and what was not said could also be the professionals are feeling it has gone beyond true value. This is the only explanation I can think of for all the poor price responses we have been seeing after the AI companies made otherwise stellar results and forward projections. The market has already priced in all possible good news.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Maybe too early to call but the response to earnings and projevtions seem to suggest a sell-on-news mode is very much still in play. Same as was for NVDA and others like MRVL, CRWV, etc.
Nasdaq/DOW/S&P I personally feel there is a large amount of exuberance in the markets right now. With all the data giving warning lights, the markets are still reaching higher. All this feels awfully familiar. In 2000, just before the dot.com burst, it was exactly like this. And it repeated in 2028, before the Sub-prime implosion. Guys, nothing wrong to take profits. Better to miss the boat with some money, that to lose it all. You can always join in again if you have cash on hand. But you are dead if you are broke and in debt. Just sharing my personal view.
This is one reason why many have called for sfaety checks and enhancements to the way AI is allowed to act. And there is also the truth that AI breaks copyright laws in sourcing information. The way they operate is they scoured whatever information is available in the web (including hacking into non-public sites) to deliver the information requested by users. So how does this speak into PDPA laws? It's a brave new world which many are rushing into without considering the full impact on society.
Gemini Hacked Three Companies in First Known Breakout by Google's AI
This is not surprising and I did see this happen when they first announced their last quarter results. The worry here is this did not just happen to Oracle, but also Marvell, Coreweave, Nividia, etc. All annouced sterling results which mostly beat revious results but also expectations of analyst. What this may suggest is, the market is completely out of sync with reality and much of today's valuation is really unrealistic. And also, the market is very very retail driven. This is dangerous as these are people who are mostly sheep following the calls of investment "gurus". And they are the ones who are buying with borrowed funds. Look what happened to the KOSPI last month to understand what is happening. And with the bond yields going nuts, plus Kezin Walsh now expected to raise rates, not o
Oracle's Stock Falls for the Fifth Day in a Row - Missing Out on the AI Bounce
$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ Daily high above $227 and closing at $221. Still up for the day versus previous day but what a dramatic movement. This is quite normal for MRVL. But one thing I am noticing is since it's high about a month ago, when Huang called it the next trillion $ company, it's been a steady retreat. What happens if the AI boom really disappears. Or even gets delayed about some are calling for now? Scary thought.
US Treasury's Yields Top 5% This from Bloomberg news just released. "It was a bit of a bad-news Monday for the US economy as 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, worsening the collision between rising inflation and swelling government and corporate borrowing." This is bad news for stocks as it means the money market is straining and liquidity is drawing away from private debts. And with hotter inflation, plus relatively strong job markets, the likelyhood of the Fed having to raise interest rates more than just once this year is higher. September is really going to be bad again.
Donald Trump may have to place Kevin Walsh under arrest now. Before he makes any decision....
Fed Chief Warsh Faces Impending Clash With Trump Over Interest Rate Decision
It is not surprising to see this happen today. After Anthropic CEO, and supported by Musk AND Altman, saying that we need to slow down AI development. I mean, both Musk and Altman agreeing on something? Seriously? What this may mean is the hypers will pause investments, meaning give less CAPEX buys. And this will hit those stocks which supply into this trade hugely. Especially as valuations are all the way past the moon already. Wednesday may be the nail that seals it. And September may turn out to be another bear month.
Movement Alert｜Marvell Technology Declines 3.43% Overnight, Trading at $226.9
This is the part I am payong most attention to right now. "a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y could tip the tide into a selloff." This is something we need to be aware of. The big money institution favors protection and returns as much as possible even as they love profit. A 5% treasury yield is guaranteed by the US Government. This have the potential to suck up liquidity from the markets big time. And let's not forget the US is busy raising cash to save the Japanese ¥. As well as fund their Iran quagmire.
The Fed Could Raise Interest Rates Three Times. Here's Where the Market Could Face the Stiffest Test.
Dario Amodei's call to slowdown in AI development. This is a alarming response to recent warning from a former Anthropic employee's whistle blow about the disregard to safety by the hyperdevelopers. And what was even more shocking was Elon Musl chimed in and agreed too. What does this mean for the AI bull run? Will it lead to a slowdown in investment to allow AI movement to catch a breathe? And if so, will it impact the growth forecast already built into the valuation of all these AI related companies? The real bearish signal would be announcements from hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google or Meta cutting AI infrastructure budgets. For MRVL and CRWV in particular, that distinction is important because their valuations are much more sensitive to expectations of continue
Us-Iran War Spreading. Besides Lebanon and Yemen, there Is now a new article from the WSJ that China helped Iran with the provision of satellite intelligence. Whether this is true or not, it may prompt Trump to create another situation to divert attention from his coming mid-term election disaster. This is especially as we see a gathering of the anti-US tariff victims in India right now. India, China, Russia, Brazil. And I will not be surprised to see Canada and some European countries apply to join. The UK too. Now that Trump is stirring up shit in Ireland. The
Larry probably feels his planned sale would probably tank the share price even more. But with Fed rate hikes expected, we are not sure this can help. Whatever the case, the sale would hurt the value of his remaining holding.
Larry Ellison Cancels Plan to Sell Oracle Stock
$Oracle(ORCL)$ If recent histories can be believed, (post-results for Nvidia, MRVL, etc.), it may very well be we will see selling on ORCL later. Let's see if ORCL will break the trend.
Why would you be disappointed? It's long known that the US treasury have been in deficit for a long time. If your cash flow is negative, where would be able to raise capital to buy back debts? Only way is to raise even more debts to bay back old debts. Hang on. Isn't this also a ponzi?
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Reaches Their Highest Levels Since 2023
Like NVDA and MRVL, and also CRWV, AVGO is now in a state where the valuation ramp-up is getting more and more scrutinised. The very real fear is the amount of cash investments to bring the AI theme into real profitability is really way over. Why Jensen Huang and his party of funders are talking up with a promised capitalisation of 0.5 trillion, is they know this. Everything hinges on the operating AI models out there actually turning real profit. So far, no AI business has done this. And the real fear is it seems that the only way to get this profitable is to throw even more money into it. It's like that old joke about some businesses which never see daylights. How do you become a millionaire dealing in these? You first need to be a billionair.
Broadcom's AI Revenue Grew 221% — and It's Still the "Frustrating" AI Laggard
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