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赤耳三皮

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2022-04-02

Okie

Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021

2022-01-03

Okie

Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.

2021-12-30

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2021-03-31

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2021-03-28

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Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress

2021-03-26

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Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.

2021-03-24

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2021-03-23

okie

Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.

2021-03-22

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2021-03-21

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Zhang Yidong: Growth-oriented core assets are expected to return the king in the second half of the year

2021-03-20

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2021-03-18

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2021-03-16

okie great

2021-03-15

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Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks

2021-03-12

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2021-03-11

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2021-03-10

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2021-03-05

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China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target

2021-03-05

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Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery

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23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139458358","media":"智通财经网","summary":"预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-01 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab89d977e495f0bfa031f9d1dca6c63","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1139458358","content_text":"4月1日（周五），微贷网股价走高，截止发稿，该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计，2021年全年，未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币（下同）之间；未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间；预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元；未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>：</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>：</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面，环龙控股申购结束。此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二，财经数据方面，投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外，美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI周三，美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时，投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外，英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面，美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率周五，全球财经数据方面，美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面，FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面，小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0,"518880":0,"GLD":0,"SGCmain":0,"SImain":0,"DUST":0,"NUGT":0,".SPX":0,"GCmain":0,"IAU":0,"SGUmain":0,"GDX":0,".DJI":0,"MGCmain":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354334953,"gmtCreate":1617140992272,"gmtModify":1704696268829,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354334953","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what really lacks imagination, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the housing bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to the beginning of 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The Interlaced Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>）。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the Chinese PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">洪灝的中国市场...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 14:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what really lacks imagination, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the housing bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to the beginning of 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The Interlaced Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>）。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the Chinese PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">洪灝的中国市场...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源：彭博，交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源：彭博，交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(图表4)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源：彭博，交银国际在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（图表5）。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源：彭博，交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力资料来源：彭博，交银国际总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（图表9）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 00:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121510889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616456389,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121510889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121510889","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"盘前，市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观，助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现，其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元，创下上市以来的新高，并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万，付费率达9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。","content":"<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-23 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121510889","content_text":"3月23日讯，3月22日(周一)美股收盘后，腾讯音乐(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。财报显示，公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元)，同比增长14.3%，市场预期83.34亿元，去年同期72.93亿元。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%，高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元)，同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元)，每ADS盈利0.71元，市场预期0.68元，去年同期0.62元。四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万，同比增长40.4%，环比净增长为430万，付费率历史性破9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。值得注意的是，2020年第四季度，公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%，极大丰富了长音频内容池；长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%，长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元)，2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示：“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型，我们进一步加强了内容的领先性，提高了用户的参与度，这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报，2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%，高于去年同期的6%。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359117830,"gmtCreate":1616373647320,"gmtModify":1704793146468,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359117830","repostId":"1145429048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350792599,"gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":"1119218309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119218309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616226176,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119218309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 15:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Growth-oriented core assets are expected to return the king in the second half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119218309","media":"红刊财经","summary":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n ","content":"<p>In the post-pandemic era, new stagflation is likely to become the norm, unlike in the 1970s, which now manifests itself as a structural asset bubble. I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain the judgment of this year's index bull market. There will be no big bear market in A shares or US stocks this year, but it will be dominated by structural markets. High-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they still face double-click in terms of performance and valuation. With the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return in the second half of the year. A good company will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continued to emphasize: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling and falling\". Holding a group is not a problem. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall. After a year of pandemic testing, many have high hopes for 2021. After the Spring Festival, the global stock market continued to adjust in stages. In macroeconomy, the upward trend of long-term bond yields in the United States and the liquidity tightening made investors more anxious. Under the premise of accelerated vaccination and a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus, can the overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities are hidden in the capital markets in 2021?</p><p>On March 18th, Zhang Yidong, managing director and global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, gave a keynote speech at CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall jointly organized by China Institute of Finance of Shanghai Jiaotong University and CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory, and shared his views on the above issues. In his view, at this stage, there is no need to be too sensitive to the rise of long-term bond yields in the United States. As the epidemic is gradually controlled, the relationship between supply and demand is rebalanced, inflation will not reach a sustained vicious out of control, and the global economic recovery will bring structural investment opportunities to the capital market.</p><p>Referring to the outlook of the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market of Hong Kong stocks, and the allocation of China's equity assets is in the ascendant. On the one hand, cyclical high-quality assets ushered in a good layout opportunity for style switching, and pro-cyclical leaders with international pricing power and international competitiveness benefited more; On the other hand, with the exit of game forces and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Economic recovery brings new 'troubles'</b></p><p><b>Hyperinflation will not have a new stagflation or become the norm</b></p><p>Let's talk about macroeconomics first. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery first. These are two very interesting key words, one is economic recovery and the other is troubles. The economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market is nervous about this good thing recently. I am worried that the capital market will face trend downward risks accompanied by trend forces such as economic recovery and significant upward trend of long-term bond interest rates.</p><p>I think we need to look at the essence from the fundamental logic. There is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are positive. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; In addition, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the US economy is expected to usher in a phased strong recovery in the next few months or even the next few quarters. With the repair of residents 'balance sheets, residents' willingness to consume will also increase with a high probability. Service-oriented consumption represented by transportation, including accommodation, tourism and other entertainment industries, will have a very strong space for repair.</p><p>Second, will it bring hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable product of economic recovery. Due to the combined effect of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound, resulting in hyperinflation. Then, we think that in the second half of this year, with the epidemic under control, the capacity utilization rate will gradually increase. Once the effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, the inflation in the United States may flatten or even fall back.</p><p>Third, we believe that U.S. monetary policy will remain loose. The latest U.S. unemployment rate remains high at 6.2%, far from the full employment target. The release of monetary policy is still on the way. At present, everyone's excessive pessimism is actually the logical confusion caused by the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields.</p><p>The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is more caused by the periodic imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, especially the rapid drop in the holding ratio of overseas investors from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that causes its yield to move upward. This tactical factor is still within the control of the Federal Reserve and does not constitute the source of trend systemic risk. Therefore, when the mystery of the upward trend of U.S. bond yield is solved, we can know that investors are overly sensitive to U.S. bond yield at present.</p><p>Fourth, in the post-pandemic era, new stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the US recovery is a bright spot, but we also believe that there is a possibility of new stagflation. This stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by the constrained supply in 1970s, but a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt and excessive issuance of credit currency, which is reflected in structural asset bubbles, which coexist with low macroeconomic growth for a long time. In the Internet age when populism prevails, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar will not collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory-fiscal deficit monetization will continue to be effective. Then, in the era of new stagflation in the next 5-10 years, it is necessary to find the most important tool for preserving and appreciating value in the structural asset bubble.</p><p><b>Global stocks usher in a short-term rally window, style shifts to value</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks will maintain the index bull market A shares US stocks are mainly structural</b></p><p>As far as the outlook of the capital market is concerned, the index of US debt volatility has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than twice the standard deviation since 2016. According to historical experience, we expect that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate in stages at about 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, the global stock market may usher in a rebound time window between mid-to-late March and April. However, the latest core inflation data in the United States from May to June may exceed expectations, thus triggering another panic in the global stock market.</p><p>We believe that in the second quarter and the third quarter, with the easing of overseas epidemics, the supply relationship of commodities will be further improved in the second half of the year, and the market will slowly look at the economic recovery with a normal mind. By then, the dominant factor of stock market volatility will become an opportunity for recovery, gradually replacing the current worry about systemic risk. Therefore, in the short and medium term, the global style turns to be dominated by value style, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.</p><p>In the medium and long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, the allocation of foreign capital to China's equity assets is in the ascendant. As China's economy begins a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market in the economic development will become more and more prominent. On the other hand, the policy of housing for living and not speculation and the constraints on local debt have made China's capital market turn to a new stage driven by equity assets and capital market.</p><p>First of all, I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, thinking that it will maintain the index bull market this year. The Hong Kong stock market is still a global valuation depression, with cheap cyclical core assets, cost-effective consumption, medicine and growth industry leaders represented by the Internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, conforming to the new development trend, and gradually getting rid of the original label of low valuation but never rising. On the one hand, since September last year, the stocks with different rights of the same shares and the return of Chinese concept stocks to the secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the three sectors of technology, consumption and medicine have become the dominant sectors of Hong Kong's main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the total market value. With the adjustment of the index structure and more new economy companies coming to Hong Kong for listing, we believe that the Hang Seng Index hopefully replicates the trend of S&P 500 in the United States in the future and gets out of the structural long bull.</p><p>Secondly, we don't think that A shares or US stocks will have a big bear market this year, but more structural markets will be shown, which can be said to be \"half seawater and half flame\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuation last year will recover from the cold; On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from recovery and have strong profit flexibility will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The driving force at the core here is recovery, which not only brings the pains of growth, but also the opportunity for value.</p><p>U.S. stocks are clearly a rebalancing between growth stocks and value stocks this year. As long as U.S. liquidity is not tightening more than expected this year, there is no systemic bear market in the U.S. market. As the profit forecast continues to be raised, the dynamic P/E continues to decline benignly. Since the beginning of the year, the dynamic P/E of S&P 500 has dropped from about 28 times to 22 times, which is very obvious.</p><p>As for the A-share market, we also believe that as soon as mid-March, as slow as May and June, it should gradually digest the impact of the upward trend of U.S. bond yields and the worry of upward inflation, and bottom out and rebound. By then, we can face the economic recovery rationally, pay more attention to the opportunities brought by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and dilute the decline in risk appetite brought by the systemic bear market.</p><p><b>Quality Value Stocks Deposit Davis Double Click Opportunity in the First Half</b></p><p><b>Growth-oriented core assets in the second half of the year will return the king</b></p><p>Specific to investment opportunities. First, we believe that from mid-March, whether it is Hong Kong stocks or A shares, cyclical high-quality assets are expected to keep up with the rhythm of U.S. stock peers. Since November last year, US stocks have begun to switch styles. Cyclical high-quality assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, equipment and other industries, have increased significantly stronger than the \"popular fried chicken\" in the previous two years (science and technology, especially information technology industry, medical care, consumer staples and other industries). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the value stocks in the US capital market will continue to strengthen, which will also drive the style switching of Hong Kong A shares.</p><p>Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they still face double-click in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, the so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Among them, industries such as finance, real estate, energy and chemical industry have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and the financial results in the next two months can also fully release catalysts for the market.</p><p>Second, one thing to confirm is that this style switching is different from the previous \"coal flying color dance\" and \"infrastructure real estate big water release\". Because this year's policy insists on housing not speculation, and local debt also needs to resolve the stock risk, the promotion of the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as before. This time, the style is more reflected in two power sources.</p><p>The first driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and America. This means that the leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effect of the whole sector. It is necessary to look for alpha opportunities from the beta industry. It is not that all cyclical industry companies can seize this opportunity. Only the best core assets are more valuable.</p><p>The second driving force is the change on the supply side, that is, carbon emissions and carbon peak. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we pay more attention to the changes of industry structure, rather than the revaluation of style preference or cyclical value from the demand side. Take the steel industry as an example. Maybe some small steel mills with high energy consumption will eventually be difficult to persist or be acquired by large steel mills. The same is true of coal and chemical industry. This is a kind of structural optimization, which can also be said to be \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".</p><p>Knowing this, let's look at this style switching again. It doesn't mean that you can buy cyclical stocks casually with your eyes closed, nor can you speculate on cyclical stocks with speculative psychology. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to see these two core driving forces clearly.</p><p>Finally, there is still hope that the opportunity for core assets in the growth field will return in the second half of the year.</p><p>It should be noted that the growth core assets need to face a period of \"recovery\" in the first half of this year after rising in the past two years or even nearly three years. Now, the core assets that everyone is talking about are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous circle in the past two years. However, in recent times, all the bullish factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there are some \"wind and grass\" and people's hearts are scattered, all kinds of funds will start to face the situation of fund redemption and need to sell stocks, which will inevitably lead to a drop in net worth. As a result, even good asset targets will be killed and valued when this style switching occurs. Therefore, even if there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative rate of return, it is still bad in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select the opportunities of Alpha whose performance exceeds expectations. There is definitely this kind of opportunity, but this kind of opportunity may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. What ordinary investors have to grasp is actually a high probability.</p><p>By the second half of this year, the financial report data will bring good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some sold game forces have been cleared. At that time, there will be a good opportunity for the layout of growth-oriented core assets. Say a good company, it will always be there. I, I have continued to emphasize since the beginning of 2016: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling and falling\". If the valuation of real core assets is too expensive, it will definitely fall. Holding a group is not a problem. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall.</p>","source":"lsy1573825873635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Growth-oriented core assets are expected to return the king in the second half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Growth-oriented core assets are expected to return the king in the second half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">红刊财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-20 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the post-pandemic era, new stagflation is likely to become the norm, unlike in the 1970s, which now manifests itself as a structural asset bubble. I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain the judgment of this year's index bull market. There will be no big bear market in A shares or US stocks this year, but it will be dominated by structural markets. High-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they still face double-click in terms of performance and valuation. With the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return in the second half of the year. A good company will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continued to emphasize: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling and falling\". Holding a group is not a problem. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall. After a year of pandemic testing, many have high hopes for 2021. After the Spring Festival, the global stock market continued to adjust in stages. In macroeconomy, the upward trend of long-term bond yields in the United States and the liquidity tightening made investors more anxious. Under the premise of accelerated vaccination and a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus, can the overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities are hidden in the capital markets in 2021?</p><p>On March 18th, Zhang Yidong, managing director and global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, gave a keynote speech at CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall jointly organized by China Institute of Finance of Shanghai Jiaotong University and CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory, and shared his views on the above issues. In his view, at this stage, there is no need to be too sensitive to the rise of long-term bond yields in the United States. As the epidemic is gradually controlled, the relationship between supply and demand is rebalanced, inflation will not reach a sustained vicious out of control, and the global economic recovery will bring structural investment opportunities to the capital market.</p><p>Referring to the outlook of the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market of Hong Kong stocks, and the allocation of China's equity assets is in the ascendant. On the one hand, cyclical high-quality assets ushered in a good layout opportunity for style switching, and pro-cyclical leaders with international pricing power and international competitiveness benefited more; On the other hand, with the exit of game forces and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Economic recovery brings new 'troubles'</b></p><p><b>Hyperinflation will not have a new stagflation or become the norm</b></p><p>Let's talk about macroeconomics first. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery first. These are two very interesting key words, one is economic recovery and the other is troubles. The economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market is nervous about this good thing recently. I am worried that the capital market will face trend downward risks accompanied by trend forces such as economic recovery and significant upward trend of long-term bond interest rates.</p><p>I think we need to look at the essence from the fundamental logic. There is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are positive. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; In addition, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the US economy is expected to usher in a phased strong recovery in the next few months or even the next few quarters. With the repair of residents 'balance sheets, residents' willingness to consume will also increase with a high probability. Service-oriented consumption represented by transportation, including accommodation, tourism and other entertainment industries, will have a very strong space for repair.</p><p>Second, will it bring hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable product of economic recovery. Due to the combined effect of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound, resulting in hyperinflation. Then, we think that in the second half of this year, with the epidemic under control, the capacity utilization rate will gradually increase. Once the effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, the inflation in the United States may flatten or even fall back.</p><p>Third, we believe that U.S. monetary policy will remain loose. The latest U.S. unemployment rate remains high at 6.2%, far from the full employment target. The release of monetary policy is still on the way. At present, everyone's excessive pessimism is actually the logical confusion caused by the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields.</p><p>The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is more caused by the periodic imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, especially the rapid drop in the holding ratio of overseas investors from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that causes its yield to move upward. This tactical factor is still within the control of the Federal Reserve and does not constitute the source of trend systemic risk. Therefore, when the mystery of the upward trend of U.S. bond yield is solved, we can know that investors are overly sensitive to U.S. bond yield at present.</p><p>Fourth, in the post-pandemic era, new stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the US recovery is a bright spot, but we also believe that there is a possibility of new stagflation. This stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by the constrained supply in 1970s, but a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt and excessive issuance of credit currency, which is reflected in structural asset bubbles, which coexist with low macroeconomic growth for a long time. In the Internet age when populism prevails, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar will not collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory-fiscal deficit monetization will continue to be effective. Then, in the era of new stagflation in the next 5-10 years, it is necessary to find the most important tool for preserving and appreciating value in the structural asset bubble.</p><p><b>Global stocks usher in a short-term rally window, style shifts to value</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks will maintain the index bull market A shares US stocks are mainly structural</b></p><p>As far as the outlook of the capital market is concerned, the index of US debt volatility has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than twice the standard deviation since 2016. According to historical experience, we expect that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate in stages at about 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, the global stock market may usher in a rebound time window between mid-to-late March and April. However, the latest core inflation data in the United States from May to June may exceed expectations, thus triggering another panic in the global stock market.</p><p>We believe that in the second quarter and the third quarter, with the easing of overseas epidemics, the supply relationship of commodities will be further improved in the second half of the year, and the market will slowly look at the economic recovery with a normal mind. By then, the dominant factor of stock market volatility will become an opportunity for recovery, gradually replacing the current worry about systemic risk. Therefore, in the short and medium term, the global style turns to be dominated by value style, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.</p><p>In the medium and long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, the allocation of foreign capital to China's equity assets is in the ascendant. As China's economy begins a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market in the economic development will become more and more prominent. On the other hand, the policy of housing for living and not speculation and the constraints on local debt have made China's capital market turn to a new stage driven by equity assets and capital market.</p><p>First of all, I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, thinking that it will maintain the index bull market this year. The Hong Kong stock market is still a global valuation depression, with cheap cyclical core assets, cost-effective consumption, medicine and growth industry leaders represented by the Internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, conforming to the new development trend, and gradually getting rid of the original label of low valuation but never rising. On the one hand, since September last year, the stocks with different rights of the same shares and the return of Chinese concept stocks to the secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the three sectors of technology, consumption and medicine have become the dominant sectors of Hong Kong's main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the total market value. With the adjustment of the index structure and more new economy companies coming to Hong Kong for listing, we believe that the Hang Seng Index hopefully replicates the trend of S&P 500 in the United States in the future and gets out of the structural long bull.</p><p>Secondly, we don't think that A shares or US stocks will have a big bear market this year, but more structural markets will be shown, which can be said to be \"half seawater and half flame\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuation last year will recover from the cold; On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from recovery and have strong profit flexibility will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The driving force at the core here is recovery, which not only brings the pains of growth, but also the opportunity for value.</p><p>U.S. stocks are clearly a rebalancing between growth stocks and value stocks this year. As long as U.S. liquidity is not tightening more than expected this year, there is no systemic bear market in the U.S. market. As the profit forecast continues to be raised, the dynamic P/E continues to decline benignly. Since the beginning of the year, the dynamic P/E of S&P 500 has dropped from about 28 times to 22 times, which is very obvious.</p><p>As for the A-share market, we also believe that as soon as mid-March, as slow as May and June, it should gradually digest the impact of the upward trend of U.S. bond yields and the worry of upward inflation, and bottom out and rebound. By then, we can face the economic recovery rationally, pay more attention to the opportunities brought by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and dilute the decline in risk appetite brought by the systemic bear market.</p><p><b>Quality Value Stocks Deposit Davis Double Click Opportunity in the First Half</b></p><p><b>Growth-oriented core assets in the second half of the year will return the king</b></p><p>Specific to investment opportunities. First, we believe that from mid-March, whether it is Hong Kong stocks or A shares, cyclical high-quality assets are expected to keep up with the rhythm of U.S. stock peers. Since November last year, US stocks have begun to switch styles. Cyclical high-quality assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, equipment and other industries, have increased significantly stronger than the \"popular fried chicken\" in the previous two years (science and technology, especially information technology industry, medical care, consumer staples and other industries). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the value stocks in the US capital market will continue to strengthen, which will also drive the style switching of Hong Kong A shares.</p><p>Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they still face double-click in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, the so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Among them, industries such as finance, real estate, energy and chemical industry have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and the financial results in the next two months can also fully release catalysts for the market.</p><p>Second, one thing to confirm is that this style switching is different from the previous \"coal flying color dance\" and \"infrastructure real estate big water release\". Because this year's policy insists on housing not speculation, and local debt also needs to resolve the stock risk, the promotion of the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as before. This time, the style is more reflected in two power sources.</p><p>The first driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and America. This means that the leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effect of the whole sector. It is necessary to look for alpha opportunities from the beta industry. It is not that all cyclical industry companies can seize this opportunity. Only the best core assets are more valuable.</p><p>The second driving force is the change on the supply side, that is, carbon emissions and carbon peak. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we pay more attention to the changes of industry structure, rather than the revaluation of style preference or cyclical value from the demand side. Take the steel industry as an example. Maybe some small steel mills with high energy consumption will eventually be difficult to persist or be acquired by large steel mills. The same is true of coal and chemical industry. This is a kind of structural optimization, which can also be said to be \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".</p><p>Knowing this, let's look at this style switching again. It doesn't mean that you can buy cyclical stocks casually with your eyes closed, nor can you speculate on cyclical stocks with speculative psychology. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to see these two core driving forces clearly.</p><p>Finally, there is still hope that the opportunity for core assets in the growth field will return in the second half of the year.</p><p>It should be noted that the growth core assets need to face a period of \"recovery\" in the first half of this year after rising in the past two years or even nearly three years. Now, the core assets that everyone is talking about are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous circle in the past two years. However, in recent times, all the bullish factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there are some \"wind and grass\" and people's hearts are scattered, all kinds of funds will start to face the situation of fund redemption and need to sell stocks, which will inevitably lead to a drop in net worth. As a result, even good asset targets will be killed and valued when this style switching occurs. Therefore, even if there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative rate of return, it is still bad in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select the opportunities of Alpha whose performance exceeds expectations. There is definitely this kind of opportunity, but this kind of opportunity may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. What ordinary investors have to grasp is actually a high probability.</p><p>By the second half of this year, the financial report data will bring good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some sold game forces have been cleared. At that time, there will be a good opportunity for the layout of growth-oriented core assets. Say a good company, it will always be there. I, I have continued to emphasize since the beginning of 2016: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling and falling\". If the valuation of real core assets is too expensive, it will definitely fall. Holding a group is not a problem. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg\">红刊财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119218309","content_text":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n\n\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，有希望在下半年王者归来。\n\n\n 好公司它是永远在那里的，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。\n\n在经历了一年的疫情考验后，许多人对2021年寄予厚望。春节过后，全球股市持续阶段性调整，宏观经济上美国长期债券收益率上行和流动性收紧使得投资者产生比较大的焦虑。在疫苗加速接种和新一轮1.9万亿财政大刺激的前提下，海外经济复苏是否能达到预期？2021年资本市场蕴藏着哪些投资机会？\n3月18日，兴业证券董事总经理、全球首席策略师张忆东在由上海交通大学中国金融研究院、CAFR-凯银联合研究实验室联合举办的《CAFR-凯银大讲堂》上进行了主题演讲，针对上述问题分享了他的观点。在他看来，现阶段无需对美国长债收益率的上升过于敏感，随着疫情逐步得到控制，供需关系达到再平衡，通胀不会达成持续性恶性失控，全球经济复苏将为资本市场带来结构性投资机会。\n提及对资本市场的展望和具体投资机会，张忆东表示坚定看好港股长期牛市，配置中国权益资产方兴未艾。一方面，周期类优质资产迎来风格切换的布局良机，具有国际定价权及国际竞争力的顺周期龙头受益更多；另一方面，随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，成长领域核心资产有希望在下半年王者归来。\n经济复苏带来新“烦恼”\n恶性通胀不会发生 新型滞胀或成为常态\n首先谈谈宏观经济。第一，我们先谈论一下经济复苏的烦恼。这是很有意思的两个关键词，一个是经济复苏，另外一个是烦恼。经济复苏是个好事，但最近资本市场对这个好事比较忐忑。担心会不会伴随着经济复苏、长债利率上行显著等趋势性力量，资本市场面临趋势性下行风险。\n我认为需要从基本面逻辑来看本质，毫无疑问经济基本面是向好的。一方面，疫苗接种在加速；另一方面，美国新一轮的1.9万亿美元财政大刺激已经获批；此外，再考虑到去年二季度的低基数，我们认为未来几个月甚至是未来几个季度，美国经济有望迎来阶段性的强复苏。随着居民资产负债表修复，居民消费意愿也将大概率提升，以交通运输为代表的服务型消费，包括住宿、旅游等娱乐行业修复的空间会非常强大。\n第二，会不会带来恶性的通胀？我的答案是不会。通胀是经济复苏的必然产物，受到需求增长强烈和去年低基数的共同作用，二季度通胀率可能会达到一个峰值，但是并不会形成持续性反弹，造成恶性通胀。那么我们认为在今年的下半年，随着疫情得到控制，产能利用率也会逐步提升，一旦有效需求得到一定的满足，供给关系再平衡之后，可能美国的通胀会走平，甚至是有所回落。\n第三，我们认为美国货币政策依然会维持宽松。美国最新的失业率依然高达6.2%，离充分就业目标还很远。货币政策的放水依然还在路上，目前大家过度悲观其实是美债收益率上行过快所引发的逻辑混乱。\n近期美国长债收益率的上行更多是因为阶段性的美国债券市场的供求关系的失衡所引发的，特别是海外投资者持有比例从近50%快速下降到了34%。是这种持有结构的变化导致了其收益率的上行。这一战术性因素，仍是美联储可控范围内的，不构成趋势性系统风险的源泉。因此，当美债收益率的上行之谜解开之后，就能够知道目前投资者对美债收益率的关注过度敏感了。\n第四，后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态。从中期的角度来说，美国复苏是个亮点，但是我们也相信说有可能会出现新型滞胀。这种滞胀不会像上世纪70年代供给受限导致石油危机、大宗商品价格上涨一样，而是需求不足、高债务、信用货币超发所驱动的滞涨，体现为结构性的资产泡沫，与宏观经济的低增长长期共存。民粹主义盛行的互联网时代，比起社会改革，欧美国家更愿意花钱来买时间，希望通过创新和科技进步来解决问题。美元主导的国际货币体系短期内还不会崩盘，MMT新货币理论——财政赤字货币化将持续有效。那么在未来5-10年新型滞胀的大时代，需要在结构性的资产泡沫中寻找一个在最重要的保值增值工具。\n全球股市短期迎来反弹窗口，风格转向价值\n港股将维持指数牛市 A股美股以结构性为主\n就资本市场的展望来说，由于美债波动率的指数已经到了一个历史上的相对高位，达到了2016年以来的一倍标准差上方。根据历史经验，我们预期美国10年期国债收益率在现阶段的1.6%左右会阶段性震荡，形成一个大的平台。对应的，全球股市在3月中下旬到4月份之间可能会迎来一个反弹时间窗口，但是，5月至6月美国最新的核心通胀数据有可能超预期，从而引发又一次的全球股市恐慌情绪。\n我们认为，快则二季度，慢则的三季度，随着海外疫情的缓解，下半年大宗商品供给关系将进一步改善，市场将慢慢的以平常心来看待经济复苏。届时，股市波动的主导因素就将变成复苏带来的机会，逐步替代现阶段对于系统性风险的担忧。所以，中短期全球的风格转向以价值风格主导，受益于欧美复苏力度大的资产表现会更好。\n中长期我们最看好中国的权益资产，一方面，外资配置中国权益资产方兴未艾，随着中国经济开始高质量的新阶段，资本市场在经济发展中牵一发而动全身的这个战略地位会越来越凸显。另一方面，房住不炒政策以及对于地方债务的约束，都使得中国资本市场开始转向以权益资产、资本市场驱动的一个新阶段。\n首先，我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，认为它今年会维持指数牛市。港股市场仍是全球估值洼地，既有便宜的周期性的核心资产，同时也有性价比较好的消费、医药，及以互联网为代表的成长性行业龙头。香港资本市场正在拥抱中国新经济，顺应发展新趋势，逐步摆脱原先估值低却始终不上涨的这个标签。一方面，从去年9月份开始，同股不同权的、中概股回归二次上市的股票，纷纷被纳入到恒生指数。另一方面，科技、消费、医药这三个板块已经成为了香港主板市场的主导性板块，占整个市值比例超过了7成。伴随着指数结构的调整以及更多的新经济公司来到香港上市，我们认为未来恒生指数有希望复制美国标普500的走势，走出结构性的长牛。\n其次，我们也不认为 A股或美股今年会出现大的熊市，只是更多的会呈现出结构性行情，可以说是“一半海水一半火焰”。一方面，去年估值比较高的成长股会遇冷休养生息；另一方面，受益于复苏且盈利具有较强弹性的周期类核心资产，会驱动着行情形成趋势性机会。这里的核心的驱动力是复苏，复苏不仅带来成长的烦恼，同时也带来价值的机会。\n美股今年明显是成长股和价值股之间的再平衡。只要今年美国流动性不是超预期的收紧，那么美国市场不存在系统性的熊市。随着盈利预测不断上调，动态市盈率在持续良性的下降，标普500动态市盈率自年初以来已经从大概28倍降到了22倍，体现的非常明显。\n至于A股市场，我们也认为，快则三月中，慢则五六月应该会逐步消化美债收益率上行的冲击、通胀上行的担忧，见底回升。届时可以理性面对经济复苏，更加关注于盈利基本面的改善所带来的机会，而淡化系统性熊市所带来的风险偏好的下降。\n上半年优质价值股存戴维斯双击机会\n下半年成长型核心资产将王者归来\n具体到投资机会上。第一，我们认为从3月中旬开始，无论是港股还是A股，周期类的优质资产有望跟上美股同行的节奏。从去年11月份开始，美股已经开始了风格切换，与经济复苏相关的周期类优质资产，如能源金融、工业、设备等行业，涨幅表现明显强于前两年的“当红炸子鸡”（科技，特别是信息技术行业，以及医疗、必需消费品等行业）。如果二季度欧美经济持续复苏，那么美国资本市场价值股持续走强，也会带动港股 A股的风格切换。\n所以对港股而言，优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。尤其是今年上半年，所谓的深度价值型（deep value）核心资产，既具有相对收益，也具有绝对收益。其中像金融、地产，能源、化工这些行业有7%甚至更高的分红收益率，未来两个月财报业绩也能够给市场充分释放催化剂。\n第二，有一点要确认，这一次的风格切换和以往的“煤飞色舞”、“基建房地产大放水”有所不同。因为今年政策上坚持房住不炒，地方债务上也要化解存量风险，对于房地产产业链的推动不会像以往那么强烈，这一次的风格更多地体现在两个动力源。\n第一动力是欧美经济复苏。这代表着受益更多的会是具有国际定价权的及国际竞争力的龙头资产，而不是整个板块的效应。需要从贝塔行业里面寻找阿尔法机会，不是说所有的周期性行业公司都能抓住这个机会，只有最优秀的核心资产才更具价值。\n第二动力是供给端的变化，也就是碳排放和碳达峰。从国内政策红利的角度来说，我们更多关注的是行业结构的变化，而不是从需求端看风格偏好或周期价值的重估。拿钢铁行业举个例子，可能一些高能耗的小钢铁厂最终就会难以坚持或被大钢厂并购。煤炭、化工也是如此，这是一种结构的优化，也可以说是“供给侧改革2.0版”。\n了解这些我们再看这次的风格切换，并不是说闭着眼睛去随便买周期股，也不能以投机心理去炒作周期股。关键的还是要看基本面逻辑，也就是看清楚这两大核心驱动力。\n最后，成长领域核心资产的机会依然有希望在下半年王者归来。\n需要注意的是，成长型核心资产在经过了过去两年甚至将近三年的上涨之后，在今年上半年需要面临一段时间的“休养生息”。现在大家讲的核心资产更多是一个博弈的逻辑，基金经理募集到资金后，肯定是会投到自己最熟悉的公司，由此在过去的这一两年时间里形成良性循环。但是最近一段时间以来，所有的利多因素都已经充分反映到估值里，一旦有些“风吹草动”，人心散掉，各类基金就开始面临资金赎回、需要卖出股票的境况，这必然带来净值的回落。由此引发的结果就是，即使是好资产标的，在这种风格切换发生的时候也会被杀估值。所以即便现在有一些优质的成长型核心资产，动态市盈率或PS已经趋于合理了，但是从相对回报率的角度来说，在今年上半年依然是不好的。如果说有机会就精选那些业绩超预期的阿尔法的机会。这种机会肯定是有，但这种机会可能更加属于专业的机构投资者，而并不是对于普通投资者，普通投资者要把握的其实是个大概率。\n到了今年下半年，财报数据带来好的业绩体现，这些核心资产的动态估值将非常有优势，同时一些卖出的博弈型力量都已清仓出局了。那个时候将迎来成长型核心资产的布局良机。说好公司它是永远在那里的，我，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，真正核心资产估值太贵的话肯定也是会跌的，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350616429,"gmtCreate":1616200580161,"gmtModify":1704792084022,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350616429","repostId":"1121651187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324438168,"gmtCreate":1616024084254,"gmtModify":1704789786576,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324438168","repostId":"1139464643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325991551,"gmtCreate":1615855571273,"gmtModify":1704787472674,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie great","listText":"okie great","text":"okie great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325991551","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322342951,"gmtCreate":1615777093273,"gmtModify":1704786344394,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322342951","repostId":"1133865277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133865277","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615775463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133865277?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133865277","media":"Barrons","summary":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popula","content":"<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s&nbsp;Invenomic&nbsp;fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.</p><p>That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.</p><p>“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.</p><p>How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”</p><p>Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.</p><p>For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.</p><p>But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.</p><p>Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”</p><p>Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.</p><p>What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.</p><p>Companies with high valuations like&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of&nbsp;Hotchkis &amp; Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.</p><p>In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.</p><p>That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.</p><p>Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.</p><p>Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133865277","content_text":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s Invenomic fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.Companies with high valuations like Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of Hotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328108362,"gmtCreate":1615504099556,"gmtModify":1704783688954,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328108362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321434389,"gmtCreate":1615460088641,"gmtModify":1704783043525,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321434389","repostId":"2118536986","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323802064,"gmtCreate":1615325805258,"gmtModify":1704781131008,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323802064","repostId":"2118364745","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367148162,"gmtCreate":1614927023556,"gmtModify":1704777066302,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367148162","repostId":"2117856806","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117856806","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614919574,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117856806?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 12:46","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117856806","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as invest","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.</p>\n<p>** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.</p>\n<p>** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.</p>\n<p>** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.</p>\n<p>** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.</p>\n<p>** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.</p>\n<p>** The Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.</p>\n<p>** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.</p>\n<p>** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.</p>\n<p>** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.</p>\n<p>** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 12:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.</p>\n<p>** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.</p>\n<p>** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.</p>\n<p>** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.</p>\n<p>** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.</p>\n<p>** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.</p>\n<p>** The Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.</p>\n<p>** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.</p>\n<p>** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.</p>\n<p>** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.</p>\n<p>** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117856806","content_text":"SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.\n** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.\n** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.\n** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.\n** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.\n** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.\n** The Shanghai Composite index dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.\n** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.\n** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.\n** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.\n** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.\n** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367143406,"gmtCreate":1614926811605,"gmtModify":1704777064153,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367143406","repostId":"2117568659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117568659","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614924128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117568659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 14:02","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117568659","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday","content":"<p>NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.</p><p>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.</p><p>Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.</p><p>\"As <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.</p><p>India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.</p><p>Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.</p><p>India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.</p><p>Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.</p><p>However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 14:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.</p><p>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.</p><p>Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.</p><p>\"As <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.</p><p>India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.</p><p>Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.</p><p>India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.</p><p>Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.</p><p>However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117568659","content_text":"NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.\"As one of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"DWT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 00:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323802064,"gmtCreate":1615325805258,"gmtModify":1704781131008,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323802064","repostId":"2118364745","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2118364745","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1615328031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118364745?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 06:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118364745","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","content":"<html><body><p>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-10 06:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/node/20086590","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118364745","content_text":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>：</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>：</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面，环龙控股申购结束。此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二，财经数据方面，投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外，美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI周三，美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时，投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外，英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面，美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率周五，全球财经数据方面，美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面，FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面，小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0,"518880":0,"GLD":0,"SGCmain":0,"SImain":0,"DUST":0,"NUGT":0,".SPX":0,"GCmain":0,"IAU":0,"SGUmain":0,"GDX":0,".DJI":0,"MGCmain":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121510889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616456389,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121510889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121510889","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"盘前，市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观，助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现，其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元，创下上市以来的新高，并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万，付费率达9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。","content":"<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-23 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121510889","content_text":"3月23日讯，3月22日(周一)美股收盘后，腾讯音乐(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。财报显示，公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元)，同比增长14.3%，市场预期83.34亿元，去年同期72.93亿元。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%，高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元)，同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元)，每ADS盈利0.71元，市场预期0.68元，去年同期0.62元。四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万，同比增长40.4%，环比净增长为430万，付费率历史性破9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。值得注意的是，2020年第四季度，公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%，极大丰富了长音频内容池；长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%，长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元)，2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示：“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型，我们进一步加强了内容的领先性，提高了用户的参与度，这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报，2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%，高于去年同期的6%。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011179175,"gmtCreate":1648848050573,"gmtModify":1676534408086,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011179175","repostId":"1139458358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139458358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648826231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139458358?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139458358","media":"智通财经网","summary":"预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-01 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab89d977e495f0bfa031f9d1dca6c63","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1139458358","content_text":"4月1日（周五），微贷网股价走高，截止发稿，该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计，2021年全年，未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币（下同）之间；未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间；预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元；未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what really lacks imagination, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the housing bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to the beginning of 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The Interlaced Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>）。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the Chinese PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">洪灝的中国市场...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 14:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what really lacks imagination, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the housing bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to the beginning of 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The Interlaced Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>）。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the Chinese PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">洪灝的中国市场...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源：彭博，交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源：彭博，交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(图表4)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源：彭博，交银国际在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（图表5）。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源：彭博，交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力资料来源：彭博，交银国际总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（图表9）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322342951,"gmtCreate":1615777093273,"gmtModify":1704786344394,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322342951","repostId":"1133865277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133865277","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615775463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133865277?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133865277","media":"Barrons","summary":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popula","content":"<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s&nbsp;Invenomic&nbsp;fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.</p><p>That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.</p><p>“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.</p><p>How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”</p><p>Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.</p><p>For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.</p><p>But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.</p><p>Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”</p><p>Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.</p><p>What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.</p><p>Companies with high valuations like&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of&nbsp;Hotchkis &amp; Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.</p><p>In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.</p><p>That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.</p><p>Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.</p><p>Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133865277","content_text":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s Invenomic fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.Companies with high valuations like Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of Hotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}