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赤耳三皮

赤耳三皮

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2022-04-02

Okie

微贷网暴涨70%，公司预计2021年收入在6.98至7.08亿元

2022-01-03

Okie

前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市

2021-12-30

Ok

Walmart set to dispense Pfizer, Merck COVID antiviral pills at certain stores

2021-03-31

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2021-03-28

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洪灝：价值王者归来进行时

2021-03-26

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消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO

2021-03-24

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2021-03-23

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腾讯音乐Q4及全年财报亮眼，盘后股价一度创新高

2021-03-22

Okie

前瞻：鲍威尔连续三日讲话，腾讯小米美团快手财报

2021-03-21

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张忆东：成长型核心资产下半年有望王者归来

2021-03-20

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杨洁篪、王毅同布林肯、沙利文举行中美高层战略对话

2021-03-18

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2021-03-16

okie great

2021-03-15

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Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks

2021-03-12

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2021-03-11

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2021-03-10

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GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close

2021-03-05

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China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target

2021-03-05

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Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery

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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月1日（周五），微贷网股价走高，截止发稿，该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计，2021年全年，未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币（下同）之间；未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间；预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元；未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab89d977e495f0bfa031f9d1dca6c63","relate_stocks":{"WEI":"微贷网"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1139458358","content_text":"4月1日（周五），微贷网股价走高，截止发稿，该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计，2021年全年，未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币（下同）之间；未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间；预计2021年全年，未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元；未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>摘要<b>：</b></p><blockquote>财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等</blockquote><blockquote>事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等</blockquote><blockquote>新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束</blockquote><p><b>1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周一，经济数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>美国Markit制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>中国香港零售销售额年率</b>等。<b>重点关注港股及美股开市情况。</b></p><p><b>新股方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">环龙控股</a>申购结束。</p><p>此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易<b>。港股、美股正常交易。</b></p><p><b>1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周二，财经数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>中国财新制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>美国ISM制造业PMI</b>。</p><p>此外，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a></b>将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。</p><p><b>1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI</b></p><p><b>周三，</b>美国将公布<b>小非农ADP就业数据</b>。同时，投资者可关注美国<b>当周API原油库存</b>、<b>EIA原油库存</b>、以及<b>美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值</b>等。</p><p><b>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></b>将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。</p><p><b>1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率</b>等数据将陆续公布<b>。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>美联储FOMC将公布<b>货币政策会议纪要</b>。</p><p><b>1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周五，全球财经数据方面，</b>美国将公布<b>12月季调后非农就业人口数据</b>以及<b>12月失业率。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。</p><p><b>新股方面，</b>小黄鸭母公司<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">德盈控股</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">金力永磁</a>申购结束。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>摘要<b>：</b></p><blockquote>财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等</blockquote><blockquote>事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等</blockquote><blockquote>新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束</blockquote><p><b>1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周一，经济数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>美国Markit制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>中国香港零售销售额年率</b>等。<b>重点关注港股及美股开市情况。</b></p><p><b>新股方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">环龙控股</a>申购结束。</p><p>此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易<b>。港股、美股正常交易。</b></p><p><b>1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周二，财经数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>中国财新制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>美国ISM制造业PMI</b>。</p><p>此外，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a></b>将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。</p><p><b>1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI</b></p><p><b>周三，</b>美国将公布<b>小非农ADP就业数据</b>。同时，投资者可关注美国<b>当周API原油库存</b>、<b>EIA原油库存</b>、以及<b>美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值</b>等。</p><p><b>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></b>将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。</p><p><b>1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率</b>等数据将陆续公布<b>。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>美联储FOMC将公布<b>货币政策会议纪要</b>。</p><p><b>1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周五，全球财经数据方面，</b>美国将公布<b>12月季调后非农就业人口数据</b>以及<b>12月失业率。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。</p><p><b>新股方面，</b>小黄鸭母公司<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">德盈控股</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">金力永磁</a>申购结束。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面，环龙控股申购结束。此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二，财经数据方面，投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外，美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI周三，美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时，投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外，英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面，美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率周五，全球财经数据方面，美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面，FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面，小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146550494","pubTimestamp":1640824803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146550494?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart set to dispense Pfizer, Merck COVID antiviral pills at certain stores","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146550494","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Walmart(NYSE:WMT)said it is now able to dispense prescriptions for COVID antiviral pills from Merck(","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Walmart(NYSE:WMT)said it is now able to dispense prescriptions for COVID antiviral pills from Merck(NYSE:MRK)and Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)at select stores in some states.</p><p>The company has provided a website for consumers to search to find a Walmart or Sam&#39;s Club pharmacy that has either Merck&#39;s molnupiravir or Pfizer&#39;s Paxlovid.</p><p>Walmart said the medications will only be available through curbside pickup or through drive-thru pharmacy windows.</p><p>Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said the company can make80M courses of Paxlovid.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart set to dispense Pfizer, Merck COVID antiviral pills at certain stores</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart set to dispense Pfizer, Merck COVID antiviral pills at certain stores\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3784041-walmart-set-to-dispense-pfizer-merck-covid-antiviral-pills-at-certain-stores><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Walmart(NYSE:WMT)said it is now able to dispense prescriptions for COVID antiviral pills from Merck(NYSE:MRK)and Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)at select stores in some states.The company has provided a website for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3784041-walmart-set-to-dispense-pfizer-merck-covid-antiviral-pills-at-certain-stores\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3784041-walmart-set-to-dispense-pfizer-merck-covid-antiviral-pills-at-certain-stores","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146550494","content_text":"Walmart(NYSE:WMT)said it is now able to dispense prescriptions for COVID antiviral pills from Merck(NYSE:MRK)and Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)at select stores in some states.The company has provided a website for consumers to search to find a Walmart or Sam's Club pharmacy that has either Merck's molnupiravir or Pfizer's Paxlovid.Walmart said the medications will only be available through curbside pickup or through drive-thru pharmacy windows.Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said the company can make80M courses of Paxlovid.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354334953,"gmtCreate":1617140992272,"gmtModify":1704696268829,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354334953","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"洪灝：价值王者归来进行时","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>概要</b></p><p>成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《<i><b>2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用</b></i>》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《<i><b>2021年展望：价值王者归来</b></i>》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。</p><p>当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。</p><p>全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。</p><p>周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。</p><p>尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。</p><p>这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《<b>Value Striking Back</b>》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。</p><p><b>价值正在王者归来</b></p><p><b>全球经济复苏</b></p><p>复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《<i><b>预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫</b></i>》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。</p><p>在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《<i><b>2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用</b></i>》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《<b><i>2021年展望：价值王者归来</i></b>》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。</p><p>为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(<b>图表1</b>)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">和信贷</a>扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。</p><p><b>图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a></p><p>与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (<b>图表2</b>)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《<i><b>2021年展望:价值王者归来</b></i>》中所做的预测一致。</p><p><b>图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a></p><p><b>中美经济的交错联动</b></p><p>中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《<i><b>中美周期的冲突</b></i>》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。</p><p>中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(<b>图表3</b>)</p><p><b>图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p><b>价值正在王者归来</b></p><p>为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(<b>图表4</b>)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。</p><p>疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。</p><p>后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(<b>图表4</b>)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。</p><p><b>图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（<b>图表5</b>）。</p><p>正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。</p><p>从<b>图表5</b>中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。</p><p><b>图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (<b>图表6</b>)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《<i><b>展望2021:价值王者归来</b></i>》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?</p><p><b>图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(<b>图表7</b>)。这些观察结果与前文的<b>图表5</b>和<b>图表6</b>一致。</p><p>也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。</p><p><b>图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p><b>地缘政治风险扰动市场</b></p><p>最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(<b>图表8</b>)。</p><p>此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。</p><p><b>图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（<b>图表9</b>）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。</p><p><b>图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灝：价值王者归来进行时</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灝：价值王者归来进行时\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 14:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>洪灝的中国市场...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源：彭博，交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源：彭博，交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(图表4)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源：彭博，交银国际在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（图表5）。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源：彭博，交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力资料来源：彭博，交银国际总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（图表9）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-26 00:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121510889","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616456389,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121510889?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯音乐Q4及全年财报亮眼，盘后股价一度创新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121510889","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"盘前，市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观，助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现，其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元，创下上市以来的新高，并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万，付费率达9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。","content":"<p>3月23日讯，3月22日(周一)美股收盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。</p><p>公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>财报显示，公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元)，同比增长14.3%，市场预期83.34亿元，去年同期72.93亿元。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%，高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元)，同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。</p><p>四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元)，每ADS盈利0.71元，市场预期0.68元，去年同期0.62元。</p><p>四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万，同比增长40.4%，环比净增长为430万，付费率历史性破9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。</p><p>值得注意的是，2020年第四季度，公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%，极大丰富了长音频内容池；长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%，长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。</p><p>2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元)，2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。</p><p>腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示：“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型，我们进一步加强了内容的领先性，提高了用户的参与度，这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报，2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%，高于去年同期的6%。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯音乐Q4及全年财报亮眼，盘后股价一度创新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯音乐Q4及全年财报亮眼，盘后股价一度创新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-23 07:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月23日讯，3月22日(周一)美股收盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。</p><p>公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>财报显示，公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元)，同比增长14.3%，市场预期83.34亿元，去年同期72.93亿元。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%，高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元)，同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。</p><p>四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元)，每ADS盈利0.71元，市场预期0.68元，去年同期0.62元。</p><p>四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万，同比增长40.4%，环比净增长为430万，付费率历史性破9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。</p><p>值得注意的是，2020年第四季度，公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%，极大丰富了长音频内容池；长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%，长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。</p><p>2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元)，2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。</p><p>腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示：“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型，我们进一步加强了内容的领先性，提高了用户的参与度，这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报，2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%，高于去年同期的6%。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121510889","content_text":"3月23日讯，3月22日(周一)美股收盘后，腾讯音乐(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。公布财报后，其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%，并创下31.55美元的历史新高。财报显示，公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元)，同比增长14.3%，市场预期83.34亿元，去年同期72.93亿元。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%，高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元)，同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元)，每ADS盈利0.71元，市场预期0.68元，去年同期0.62元。四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万，同比增长40.4%，环比净增长为430万，付费率历史性破9%，高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。值得注意的是，2020年第四季度，公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%，极大丰富了长音频内容池；长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%，长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元)，2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示：“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型，我们进一步加强了内容的领先性，提高了用户的参与度，这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报，2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%，高于去年同期的6%。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359117830,"gmtCreate":1616373647320,"gmtModify":1704793146468,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359117830","repostId":"1145429048","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145429048","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616368223,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145429048?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 07:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：鲍威尔连续三日讲话，腾讯小米美团快手财报","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145429048","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国官员、华尔街人士纷纷发言：拜登上任来首次正式新闻发布会，鲍威尔等美联储官员连连讲话，财长耶伦也将发话，ARK木头姐连线华夏基金……新股纷至沓来：百度周二在港上市，B站周五暗盘，知乎周五登陆纽交所；","content":"<blockquote>美国官员、华尔街人士纷纷发言：拜登上任来首次正式新闻发布会，鲍威尔等美联储官员连连讲话，财长耶伦也将发话，ARK木头姐连线华夏基金……</blockquote><blockquote>新股纷至沓来：百度周二在港上市，B站周五暗盘，知乎周五登陆纽交所；</blockquote><blockquote>标普500指数变动，恩智浦半导体等4只美股将在周一盘前正式获纳；</blockquote><blockquote>美港股财报披露高峰期：腾讯、小米、美团、快手、农夫山泉、海底捞、安踏、蒙牛、泡泡玛特，华住、Adobe、游戏驿站……</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d49ee7e5c805aeb8963e72de98680bb\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周一（3月22日）中国LPR、标普500指数调整、康师傅/华润啤酒/腾讯音乐财报、百度暗盘</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efef879aef4c7fa3f944c68af06ba7a3\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">港股方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a></b>将公布中签结果并在下午开启暗盘交易；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00322\">康师傅控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">华润啤酒</a>等发布财报。</p><p>美股方面，重点关注：</p><ul><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500指数</a>变动（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">恩智浦</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PENN\">佩恩国民博彩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CZR\">凯撒娱乐</a>等将在美股盘前正式获纳，</p></li><li><p>美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，</p></li><li><p>以及盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>财报。</p></li></ul><p><b>周二（3月23日）关键词：</b><b>百度在港上市、快手/吉利汽车/海底捞/九毛九/斗鱼/游戏驿站财报</b></p><p><b>港股财报发布高峰期</b>到来，周二发布财报的包括：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>、金山软件、阅文集团等……</p><p>美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>等盘前发布财报；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>等在盘后发布财报。</p><p>新股方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>正式登陆港交所</b>；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>公开招股结束。</p><p>美国电动巴士制造商Proterra Inc 之前已同意通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACTDU\">ARCLIGHT CLEAN TRANSITION CORP II UNIT 1 CL A &amp; 1/5 WT EXP(16/03/2028)</a>合并上市。</p><p><b>苹果公司将于美国时间3月23日上午10点，约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开春季发布会，可能发布iOS 14.5正式版。</b></p><p>不确定的是，有媒体报道，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>春季发布会</b>将于美国时间3月23日上午10点/约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开，或发布iOS 14.5正式版。但<b>据彭博社消息，苹果或将延后至 4 月召开新品发布会</b>，其中新的 iPad Pro 2021将搭载A14X处理器。</p><p><b>周三（3月24日）关键词：鲍威尔/耶伦 讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d7bf82aa1f07a1afcf6d19da16bf36\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周三凌晨与晚间，多位美国官员将登台讲话，尤须关注<b>鲍威尔与耶伦</b>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC.US\">英特尔</a>CEO Pat Gelsinger曾在推特表示，他将在网络直播活动中进行演讲，宣布令人激动的事情。</p><p><b>港股明星股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a></b>都将发布财报，消费股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">安踏体育</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">蒙牛乳业</a></b>等也将披露业绩。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01179\">华住集团-S</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住集团</a>将在港股收盘后、美股盘前发布财报。</p><p><b>美股新股方面</b>，美国云主机厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCN\">DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.</a>、美国军工及国防承包商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRS\">Leonardo DRS, Inc.</a>等将上市。</p><p><b>周四（3月25日）关键词：</b>拜登新闻发布会、美联储官员讲话、美团/泡泡玛特/中国有赞 财报、B站暗盘、知乎上市<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efa66a195ccbcc6851563d9affdb42e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周四日内可留意<b>拜登举行上任以来的首次正式新闻发布会</b>，预计拜登届时会面临关于美墨边境、基建计划以及疫苗等热点问题，仍需留意多位<b>美联储官员讲话</b>。</p><p>此外，华尔街当下热门基金<b>ARK的创始人Catherine Wood</b>将与华夏基金总经理、CFA Institute全球理事李一梅连线直播，共同探讨颠覆性创新中的投资未来。</p><p><b>财报方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>等多只港股都将放榜，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>将在盘前发布业绩。</p><p>美股新股方面，数字营销管理平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEMR\">SEMrush Holdings, Inc.</a>、低成本电视制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZIO\">VIZIO HOLDING CORP.</a>等将上市。</p><p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02038\">富智康集团</a>母公司鸿海科技集团及其旗下LCD面板公司群创光电联合投资了Vizio，根据 OMDIA 的统计，以出货量来计算，Vizio 在 2018 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月期间为北美电视机市场第二大品牌。</p><p><b>周五（3月26日）关键词：德国景气指数、PCE、个人支出</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/345cc8dd2a053f7c51d1815cd2cf62cc\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">重点关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08083\">中国有赞</a>等财报。</p><p>新股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>将公布中签结果并开启暗盘交易；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>周五上市，此次公开发行将同步进行私募配售（CPP），共募资规模最高达11.2亿美元。</p><p>从28日9点开始，<b>英国开始实行夏令时</b>，至10月31日终止；英国金融市场的交易时间将较冬令时提前一个小时。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：鲍威尔连续三日讲话，腾讯小米美团快手财报</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：鲍威尔连续三日讲话，腾讯小米美团快手财报\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-22 07:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>美国官员、华尔街人士纷纷发言：拜登上任来首次正式新闻发布会，鲍威尔等美联储官员连连讲话，财长耶伦也将发话，ARK木头姐连线华夏基金……</blockquote><blockquote>新股纷至沓来：百度周二在港上市，B站周五暗盘，知乎周五登陆纽交所；</blockquote><blockquote>标普500指数变动，恩智浦半导体等4只美股将在周一盘前正式获纳；</blockquote><blockquote>美港股财报披露高峰期：腾讯、小米、美团、快手、农夫山泉、海底捞、安踏、蒙牛、泡泡玛特，华住、Adobe、游戏驿站……</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d49ee7e5c805aeb8963e72de98680bb\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周一（3月22日）中国LPR、标普500指数调整、康师傅/华润啤酒/腾讯音乐财报、百度暗盘</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efef879aef4c7fa3f944c68af06ba7a3\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">港股方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a></b>将公布中签结果并在下午开启暗盘交易；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00322\">康师傅控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">华润啤酒</a>等发布财报。</p><p>美股方面，重点关注：</p><ul><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500指数</a>变动（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">恩智浦</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PENN\">佩恩国民博彩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CZR\">凯撒娱乐</a>等将在美股盘前正式获纳，</p></li><li><p>美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，</p></li><li><p>以及盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>财报。</p></li></ul><p><b>周二（3月23日）关键词：</b><b>百度在港上市、快手/吉利汽车/海底捞/九毛九/斗鱼/游戏驿站财报</b></p><p><b>港股财报发布高峰期</b>到来，周二发布财报的包括：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>、金山软件、阅文集团等……</p><p>美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>等盘前发布财报；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>等在盘后发布财报。</p><p>新股方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>正式登陆港交所</b>；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>公开招股结束。</p><p>美国电动巴士制造商Proterra Inc 之前已同意通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACTDU\">ARCLIGHT CLEAN TRANSITION CORP II UNIT 1 CL A &amp; 1/5 WT EXP(16/03/2028)</a>合并上市。</p><p><b>苹果公司将于美国时间3月23日上午10点，约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开春季发布会，可能发布iOS 14.5正式版。</b></p><p>不确定的是，有媒体报道，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>春季发布会</b>将于美国时间3月23日上午10点/约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开，或发布iOS 14.5正式版。但<b>据彭博社消息，苹果或将延后至 4 月召开新品发布会</b>，其中新的 iPad Pro 2021将搭载A14X处理器。</p><p><b>周三（3月24日）关键词：鲍威尔/耶伦 讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d7bf82aa1f07a1afcf6d19da16bf36\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周三凌晨与晚间，多位美国官员将登台讲话，尤须关注<b>鲍威尔与耶伦</b>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC.US\">英特尔</a>CEO Pat Gelsinger曾在推特表示，他将在网络直播活动中进行演讲，宣布令人激动的事情。</p><p><b>港股明星股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a></b>都将发布财报，消费股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">安踏体育</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">蒙牛乳业</a></b>等也将披露业绩。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01179\">华住集团-S</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住集团</a>将在港股收盘后、美股盘前发布财报。</p><p><b>美股新股方面</b>，美国云主机厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCN\">DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.</a>、美国军工及国防承包商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRS\">Leonardo DRS, Inc.</a>等将上市。</p><p><b>周四（3月25日）关键词：</b>拜登新闻发布会、美联储官员讲话、美团/泡泡玛特/中国有赞 财报、B站暗盘、知乎上市<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efa66a195ccbcc6851563d9affdb42e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周四日内可留意<b>拜登举行上任以来的首次正式新闻发布会</b>，预计拜登届时会面临关于美墨边境、基建计划以及疫苗等热点问题，仍需留意多位<b>美联储官员讲话</b>。</p><p>此外，华尔街当下热门基金<b>ARK的创始人Catherine Wood</b>将与华夏基金总经理、CFA Institute全球理事李一梅连线直播，共同探讨颠覆性创新中的投资未来。</p><p><b>财报方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>等多只港股都将放榜，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>将在盘前发布业绩。</p><p>美股新股方面，数字营销管理平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEMR\">SEMrush Holdings, Inc.</a>、低成本电视制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZIO\">VIZIO HOLDING CORP.</a>等将上市。</p><p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02038\">富智康集团</a>母公司鸿海科技集团及其旗下LCD面板公司群创光电联合投资了Vizio，根据 OMDIA 的统计，以出货量来计算，Vizio 在 2018 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月期间为北美电视机市场第二大品牌。</p><p><b>周五（3月26日）关键词：德国景气指数、PCE、个人支出</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/345cc8dd2a053f7c51d1815cd2cf62cc\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">重点关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08083\">中国有赞</a>等财报。</p><p>新股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>将公布中签结果并开启暗盘交易；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>周五上市，此次公开发行将同步进行私募配售（CPP），共募资规模最高达11.2亿美元。</p><p>从28日9点开始，<b>英国开始实行夏令时</b>，至10月31日终止；英国金融市场的交易时间将较冬令时提前一个小时。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145429048","content_text":"美国官员、华尔街人士纷纷发言：拜登上任来首次正式新闻发布会，鲍威尔等美联储官员连连讲话，财长耶伦也将发话，ARK木头姐连线华夏基金……新股纷至沓来：百度周二在港上市，B站周五暗盘，知乎周五登陆纽交所；标普500指数变动，恩智浦半导体等4只美股将在周一盘前正式获纳；美港股财报披露高峰期：腾讯、小米、美团、快手、农夫山泉、海底捞、安踏、蒙牛、泡泡玛特，华住、Adobe、游戏驿站……周一（3月22日）中国LPR、标普500指数调整、康师傅/华润啤酒/腾讯音乐财报、百度暗盘港股方面，百度集团-SW将公布中签结果并在下午开启暗盘交易；康师傅控股、华润啤酒等发布财报。美股方面，重点关注：标普500指数变动（恩智浦、佩恩国民博彩、Generac控股、凯撒娱乐等将在美股盘前正式获纳，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，以及盘后的腾讯音乐财报。周二（3月23日）关键词：百度在港上市、快手/吉利汽车/海底捞/九毛九/斗鱼/游戏驿站财报港股财报发布高峰期到来，周二发布财报的包括：快手-W、吉利汽车、海底捞、九毛九、金山软件、阅文集团等……美股斗鱼、虎牙等盘前发布财报；Adobe和游戏驿站等在盘后发布财报。新股方面，百度集团-SW正式登陆港交所；哔哩哔哩-SW公开招股结束。美国电动巴士制造商Proterra Inc 之前已同意通过与ARCLIGHT CLEAN TRANSITION CORP II UNIT 1 CL A & 1/5 WT EXP(16/03/2028)合并上市。苹果公司将于美国时间3月23日上午10点，约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开春季发布会，可能发布iOS 14.5正式版。不确定的是，有媒体报道，苹果春季发布会将于美国时间3月23日上午10点/约北京时间24日凌晨1点召开，或发布iOS 14.5正式版。但据彭博社消息，苹果或将延后至 4 月召开新品发布会，其中新的 iPad Pro 2021将搭载A14X处理器。周三（3月24日）关键词：鲍威尔/耶伦 讲话周三凌晨与晚间，多位美国官员将登台讲话，尤须关注鲍威尔与耶伦。英特尔CEO Pat Gelsinger曾在推特表示，他将在网络直播活动中进行演讲，宣布令人激动的事情。港股明星股腾讯控股、小米集团-W都将发布财报，消费股安踏体育、蒙牛乳业等也将披露业绩。华住集团-S/华住集团将在港股收盘后、美股盘前发布财报。美股新股方面，美国云主机厂商DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.、美国军工及国防承包商Leonardo DRS, Inc.等将上市。周四（3月25日）关键词：拜登新闻发布会、美联储官员讲话、美团/泡泡玛特/中国有赞 财报、B站暗盘、知乎上市周四日内可留意拜登举行上任以来的首次正式新闻发布会，预计拜登届时会面临关于美墨边境、基建计划以及疫苗等热点问题，仍需留意多位美联储官员讲话。此外，华尔街当下热门基金ARK的创始人Catherine Wood将与华夏基金总经理、CFA Institute全球理事李一梅连线直播，共同探讨颠覆性创新中的投资未来。财报方面，农夫山泉、碧桂园、恒大汽车、中国移动等多只港股都将放榜，美股陌陌将在盘前发布业绩。美股新股方面，数字营销管理平台SEMrush Holdings, Inc.、低成本电视制造商VIZIO HOLDING CORP.等将上市。据报道，富智康集团母公司鸿海科技集团及其旗下LCD面板公司群创光电联合投资了Vizio，根据 OMDIA 的统计，以出货量来计算，Vizio 在 2018 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月期间为北美电视机市场第二大品牌。周五（3月26日）关键词：德国景气指数、PCE、个人支出重点关注美团-W、泡泡玛特、中国有赞等财报。新股方面，哔哩哔哩-SW将公布中签结果并开启暗盘交易；知乎周五上市，此次公开发行将同步进行私募配售（CPP），共募资规模最高达11.2亿美元。从28日9点开始，英国开始实行夏令时，至10月31日终止；英国金融市场的交易时间将较冬令时提前一个小时。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350792599,"gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":"1119218309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119218309","pubTimestamp":1616226176,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119218309?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 15:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张忆东：成长型核心资产下半年有望王者归来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119218309","media":"红刊财经","summary":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n ","content":"<blockquote>\n 后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，有希望在下半年王者归来。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 好公司它是永远在那里的，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在经历了一年的疫情考验后，许多人对2021年寄予厚望。春节过后，全球股市持续阶段性调整，宏观经济上美国长期债券收益率上行和流动性收紧使得投资者产生比较大的焦虑。在疫苗加速接种和新一轮1.9万亿财政大刺激的前提下，海外经济复苏是否能达到预期？2021年资本市场蕴藏着哪些投资机会？</p>\n<p>3月18日，兴业证券董事总经理、全球首席策略师张忆东在由上海交通大学中国金融研究院、CAFR-凯银联合研究实验室联合举办的《CAFR-凯银大讲堂》上进行了主题演讲，针对上述问题分享了他的观点。在他看来，现阶段无需对美国长债收益率的上升过于敏感，随着疫情逐步得到控制，供需关系达到再平衡，通胀不会达成持续性恶性失控，全球经济复苏将为资本市场带来结构性投资机会。</p>\n<p>提及对资本市场的展望和具体投资机会，张忆东表示坚定看好港股长期牛市，配置中国权益资产方兴未艾。一方面，周期类优质资产迎来风格切换的布局良机，具有国际定价权及国际竞争力的顺周期龙头受益更多；另一方面，随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，成长领域核心资产有希望在下半年王者归来。</p>\n<p><b>经济复苏带来新“烦恼”</b></p>\n<p><b>恶性通胀不会发生 新型滞胀或成为常态</b></p>\n<p>首先谈谈宏观经济。第一，我们先谈论一下经济复苏的烦恼。这是很有意思的两个关键词，一个是经济复苏，另外一个是烦恼。经济复苏是个好事，但最近资本市场对这个好事比较忐忑。担心会不会伴随着经济复苏、长债利率上行显著等趋势性力量，资本市场面临趋势性下行风险。</p>\n<p>我认为需要从基本面逻辑来看本质，毫无疑问经济基本面是向好的。一方面，疫苗接种在加速；另一方面，美国新一轮的1.9万亿美元财政大刺激已经获批；此外，再考虑到去年二季度的低基数，我们认为未来几个月甚至是未来几个季度，美国经济有望迎来阶段性的强复苏。随着居民资产负债表修复，居民消费意愿也将大概率提升，以交通运输为代表的服务型消费，包括住宿、旅游等娱乐行业修复的空间会非常强大。</p>\n<p>第二，会不会带来恶性的通胀？我的答案是不会。通胀是经济复苏的必然产物，受到需求增长强烈和去年低基数的共同作用，二季度通胀率可能会达到一个峰值，但是并不会形成持续性反弹，造成恶性通胀。那么我们认为在今年的下半年，随着疫情得到控制，产能利用率也会逐步提升，一旦有效需求得到一定的满足，供给关系再平衡之后，可能美国的通胀会走平，甚至是有所回落。</p>\n<p>第三，我们认为美国货币政策依然会维持宽松。美国最新的失业率依然高达6.2%，离充分就业目标还很远。货币政策的放水依然还在路上，目前大家过度悲观其实是美债收益率上行过快所引发的逻辑混乱。</p>\n<p>近期美国长债收益率的上行更多是因为阶段性的美国债券市场的供求关系的失衡所引发的，特别是海外投资者持有比例从近50%快速下降到了34%。是这种持有结构的变化导致了其收益率的上行。这一战术性因素，仍是美联储可控范围内的，不构成趋势性系统风险的源泉。因此，当美债收益率的上行之谜解开之后，就能够知道目前投资者对美债收益率的关注过度敏感了。</p>\n<p>第四，后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态。从中期的角度来说，美国复苏是个亮点，但是我们也相信说有可能会出现新型滞胀。这种滞胀不会像上世纪70年代供给受限导致石油危机、大宗商品价格上涨一样，而是需求不足、高债务、信用货币超发所驱动的滞涨，体现为结构性的资产泡沫，与宏观经济的低增长长期共存。民粹主义盛行的互联网时代，比起社会改革，欧美国家更愿意花钱来买时间，希望通过创新和科技进步来解决问题。美元主导的国际货币体系短期内还不会崩盘，MMT新货币理论——财政赤字货币化将持续有效。那么在未来5-10年新型滞胀的大时代，需要在结构性的资产泡沫中寻找一个在最重要的保值增值工具。</p>\n<p><b>全球股市短期迎来反弹窗口，风格转向价值</b></p>\n<p><b>港股将维持指数牛市 A股美股以结构性为主</b></p>\n<p>就资本市场的展望来说，由于美债波动率的指数已经到了一个历史上的相对高位，达到了2016年以来的一倍标准差上方。根据历史经验，我们预期美国10年期国债收益率在现阶段的1.6%左右会阶段性震荡，形成一个大的平台。对应的，全球股市在3月中下旬到4月份之间可能会迎来一个反弹时间窗口，但是，5月至6月美国最新的核心通胀数据有可能超预期，从而引发又一次的全球股市恐慌情绪。</p>\n<p>我们认为，快则二季度，慢则的三季度，随着海外疫情的缓解，下半年大宗商品供给关系将进一步改善，市场将慢慢的以平常心来看待经济复苏。届时，股市波动的主导因素就将变成复苏带来的机会，逐步替代现阶段对于系统性风险的担忧。所以，中短期全球的风格转向以价值风格主导，受益于欧美复苏力度大的资产表现会更好。</p>\n<p>中长期我们最看好中国的权益资产，一方面，外资配置中国权益资产方兴未艾，随着中国经济开始高质量的新阶段，资本市场在经济发展中牵一发而动全身的这个战略地位会越来越凸显。另一方面，房住不炒政策以及对于地方债务的约束，都使得中国资本市场开始转向以权益资产、资本市场驱动的一个新阶段。</p>\n<p>首先，我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，认为它今年会维持指数牛市。港股市场仍是全球估值洼地，既有便宜的周期性的核心资产，同时也有性价比较好的消费、医药，及以互联网为代表的成长性行业龙头。香港资本市场正在拥抱中国新经济，顺应发展新趋势，逐步摆脱原先估值低却始终不上涨的这个标签。一方面，从去年9月份开始，同股不同权的、中概股回归二次上市的股票，纷纷被纳入到恒生指数。另一方面，科技、消费、医药这三个板块已经成为了香港主板市场的主导性板块，占整个市值比例超过了7成。伴随着指数结构的调整以及更多的新经济公司来到香港上市，我们认为未来恒生指数有希望复制美国标普500的走势，走出结构性的长牛。</p>\n<p>其次，我们也不认为 A股或美股今年会出现大的熊市，只是更多的会呈现出结构性行情，可以说是“一半海水一半火焰”。一方面，去年估值比较高的成长股会遇冷休养生息；另一方面，受益于复苏且盈利具有较强弹性的周期类核心资产，会驱动着行情形成趋势性机会。这里的核心的驱动力是复苏，复苏不仅带来成长的烦恼，同时也带来价值的机会。</p>\n<p>美股今年明显是成长股和价值股之间的再平衡。只要今年美国流动性不是超预期的收紧，那么美国市场不存在系统性的熊市。随着盈利预测不断上调，动态市盈率在持续良性的下降，标普500动态市盈率自年初以来已经从大概28倍降到了22倍，体现的非常明显。</p>\n<p>至于A股市场，我们也认为，快则三月中，慢则五六月应该会逐步消化美债收益率上行的冲击、通胀上行的担忧，见底回升。届时可以理性面对经济复苏，更加关注于盈利基本面的改善所带来的机会，而淡化系统性熊市所带来的风险偏好的下降。</p>\n<p><b>上半年优质价值股存戴维斯双击机会</b></p>\n<p><b>下半年成长型核心资产将王者归来</b></p>\n<p>具体到投资机会上。第一，我们认为从3月中旬开始，无论是港股还是A股，周期类的优质资产有望跟上美股同行的节奏。从去年11月份开始，美股已经开始了风格切换，与经济复苏相关的周期类优质资产，如能源金融、工业、设备等行业，涨幅表现明显强于前两年的“当红炸子鸡”（科技，特别是信息技术行业，以及医疗、必需消费品等行业）。如果二季度欧美经济持续复苏，那么美国资本市场价值股持续走强，也会带动港股 A股的风格切换。</p>\n<p>所以对港股而言，优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。尤其是今年上半年，所谓的深度价值型（deep value）核心资产，既具有相对收益，也具有绝对收益。其中像金融、地产，能源、化工这些行业有7%甚至更高的分红收益率，未来两个月财报业绩也能够给市场充分释放催化剂。</p>\n<p>第二，有一点要确认，这一次的风格切换和以往的“煤飞色舞”、“基建房地产大放水”有所不同。因为今年政策上坚持房住不炒，地方债务上也要化解存量风险，对于房地产产业链的推动不会像以往那么强烈，这一次的风格更多地体现在两个动力源。</p>\n<p>第一动力是欧美经济复苏。这代表着受益更多的会是具有国际定价权的及国际竞争力的龙头资产，而不是整个板块的效应。需要从贝塔行业里面寻找阿尔法机会，不是说所有的周期性行业公司都能抓住这个机会，只有最优秀的核心资产才更具价值。</p>\n<p>第二动力是供给端的变化，也就是碳排放和碳达峰。从国内政策红利的角度来说，我们更多关注的是行业结构的变化，而不是从需求端看风格偏好或周期价值的重估。拿钢铁行业举个例子，可能一些高能耗的小钢铁厂最终就会难以坚持或被大钢厂并购。煤炭、化工也是如此，这是一种结构的优化，也可以说是“供给侧改革2.0版”。</p>\n<p>了解这些我们再看这次的风格切换，并不是说闭着眼睛去随便买周期股，也不能以投机心理去炒作周期股。关键的还是要看基本面逻辑，也就是看清楚这两大核心驱动力。</p>\n<p>最后，成长领域核心资产的机会依然有希望在下半年王者归来。</p>\n<p>需要注意的是，成长型核心资产在经过了过去两年甚至将近三年的上涨之后，在今年上半年需要面临一段时间的“休养生息”。现在大家讲的核心资产更多是一个博弈的逻辑，基金经理募集到资金后，肯定是会投到自己最熟悉的公司，由此在过去的这一两年时间里形成良性循环。但是最近一段时间以来，所有的利多因素都已经充分反映到估值里，一旦有些“风吹草动”，人心散掉，各类基金就开始面临资金赎回、需要卖出股票的境况，这必然带来净值的回落。由此引发的结果就是，即使是好资产标的，在这种风格切换发生的时候也会被杀估值。所以即便现在有一些优质的成长型核心资产，动态市盈率或PS已经趋于合理了，但是从相对回报率的角度来说，在今年上半年依然是不好的。如果说有机会就精选那些业绩超预期的阿尔法的机会。这种机会肯定是有，但这种机会可能更加属于专业的机构投资者，而并不是对于普通投资者，普通投资者要把握的其实是个大概率。</p>\n<p>到了今年下半年，财报数据带来好的业绩体现，这些核心资产的动态估值将非常有优势，同时一些卖出的博弈型力量都已清仓出局了。那个时候将迎来成长型核心资产的布局良机。说好公司它是永远在那里的，我，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，真正核心资产估值太贵的话肯定也是会跌的，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。</p>","source":"lsy1573825873635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东：成长型核心资产下半年有望王者归来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-20 15:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg><strong>红刊财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n\n\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，有希望在下半年王者归来。\n\n\n 好公司它是永远在那里的，我2016年初...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119218309","content_text":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n\n\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，有希望在下半年王者归来。\n\n\n 好公司它是永远在那里的，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。\n\n在经历了一年的疫情考验后，许多人对2021年寄予厚望。春节过后，全球股市持续阶段性调整，宏观经济上美国长期债券收益率上行和流动性收紧使得投资者产生比较大的焦虑。在疫苗加速接种和新一轮1.9万亿财政大刺激的前提下，海外经济复苏是否能达到预期？2021年资本市场蕴藏着哪些投资机会？\n3月18日，兴业证券董事总经理、全球首席策略师张忆东在由上海交通大学中国金融研究院、CAFR-凯银联合研究实验室联合举办的《CAFR-凯银大讲堂》上进行了主题演讲，针对上述问题分享了他的观点。在他看来，现阶段无需对美国长债收益率的上升过于敏感，随着疫情逐步得到控制，供需关系达到再平衡，通胀不会达成持续性恶性失控，全球经济复苏将为资本市场带来结构性投资机会。\n提及对资本市场的展望和具体投资机会，张忆东表示坚定看好港股长期牛市，配置中国权益资产方兴未艾。一方面，周期类优质资产迎来风格切换的布局良机，具有国际定价权及国际竞争力的顺周期龙头受益更多；另一方面，随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，成长领域核心资产有希望在下半年王者归来。\n经济复苏带来新“烦恼”\n恶性通胀不会发生 新型滞胀或成为常态\n首先谈谈宏观经济。第一，我们先谈论一下经济复苏的烦恼。这是很有意思的两个关键词，一个是经济复苏，另外一个是烦恼。经济复苏是个好事，但最近资本市场对这个好事比较忐忑。担心会不会伴随着经济复苏、长债利率上行显著等趋势性力量，资本市场面临趋势性下行风险。\n我认为需要从基本面逻辑来看本质，毫无疑问经济基本面是向好的。一方面，疫苗接种在加速；另一方面，美国新一轮的1.9万亿美元财政大刺激已经获批；此外，再考虑到去年二季度的低基数，我们认为未来几个月甚至是未来几个季度，美国经济有望迎来阶段性的强复苏。随着居民资产负债表修复，居民消费意愿也将大概率提升，以交通运输为代表的服务型消费，包括住宿、旅游等娱乐行业修复的空间会非常强大。\n第二，会不会带来恶性的通胀？我的答案是不会。通胀是经济复苏的必然产物，受到需求增长强烈和去年低基数的共同作用，二季度通胀率可能会达到一个峰值，但是并不会形成持续性反弹，造成恶性通胀。那么我们认为在今年的下半年，随着疫情得到控制，产能利用率也会逐步提升，一旦有效需求得到一定的满足，供给关系再平衡之后，可能美国的通胀会走平，甚至是有所回落。\n第三，我们认为美国货币政策依然会维持宽松。美国最新的失业率依然高达6.2%，离充分就业目标还很远。货币政策的放水依然还在路上，目前大家过度悲观其实是美债收益率上行过快所引发的逻辑混乱。\n近期美国长债收益率的上行更多是因为阶段性的美国债券市场的供求关系的失衡所引发的，特别是海外投资者持有比例从近50%快速下降到了34%。是这种持有结构的变化导致了其收益率的上行。这一战术性因素，仍是美联储可控范围内的，不构成趋势性系统风险的源泉。因此，当美债收益率的上行之谜解开之后，就能够知道目前投资者对美债收益率的关注过度敏感了。\n第四，后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态。从中期的角度来说，美国复苏是个亮点，但是我们也相信说有可能会出现新型滞胀。这种滞胀不会像上世纪70年代供给受限导致石油危机、大宗商品价格上涨一样，而是需求不足、高债务、信用货币超发所驱动的滞涨，体现为结构性的资产泡沫，与宏观经济的低增长长期共存。民粹主义盛行的互联网时代，比起社会改革，欧美国家更愿意花钱来买时间，希望通过创新和科技进步来解决问题。美元主导的国际货币体系短期内还不会崩盘，MMT新货币理论——财政赤字货币化将持续有效。那么在未来5-10年新型滞胀的大时代，需要在结构性的资产泡沫中寻找一个在最重要的保值增值工具。\n全球股市短期迎来反弹窗口，风格转向价值\n港股将维持指数牛市 A股美股以结构性为主\n就资本市场的展望来说，由于美债波动率的指数已经到了一个历史上的相对高位，达到了2016年以来的一倍标准差上方。根据历史经验，我们预期美国10年期国债收益率在现阶段的1.6%左右会阶段性震荡，形成一个大的平台。对应的，全球股市在3月中下旬到4月份之间可能会迎来一个反弹时间窗口，但是，5月至6月美国最新的核心通胀数据有可能超预期，从而引发又一次的全球股市恐慌情绪。\n我们认为，快则二季度，慢则的三季度，随着海外疫情的缓解，下半年大宗商品供给关系将进一步改善，市场将慢慢的以平常心来看待经济复苏。届时，股市波动的主导因素就将变成复苏带来的机会，逐步替代现阶段对于系统性风险的担忧。所以，中短期全球的风格转向以价值风格主导，受益于欧美复苏力度大的资产表现会更好。\n中长期我们最看好中国的权益资产，一方面，外资配置中国权益资产方兴未艾，随着中国经济开始高质量的新阶段，资本市场在经济发展中牵一发而动全身的这个战略地位会越来越凸显。另一方面，房住不炒政策以及对于地方债务的约束，都使得中国资本市场开始转向以权益资产、资本市场驱动的一个新阶段。\n首先，我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，认为它今年会维持指数牛市。港股市场仍是全球估值洼地，既有便宜的周期性的核心资产，同时也有性价比较好的消费、医药，及以互联网为代表的成长性行业龙头。香港资本市场正在拥抱中国新经济，顺应发展新趋势，逐步摆脱原先估值低却始终不上涨的这个标签。一方面，从去年9月份开始，同股不同权的、中概股回归二次上市的股票，纷纷被纳入到恒生指数。另一方面，科技、消费、医药这三个板块已经成为了香港主板市场的主导性板块，占整个市值比例超过了7成。伴随着指数结构的调整以及更多的新经济公司来到香港上市，我们认为未来恒生指数有希望复制美国标普500的走势，走出结构性的长牛。\n其次，我们也不认为 A股或美股今年会出现大的熊市，只是更多的会呈现出结构性行情，可以说是“一半海水一半火焰”。一方面，去年估值比较高的成长股会遇冷休养生息；另一方面，受益于复苏且盈利具有较强弹性的周期类核心资产，会驱动着行情形成趋势性机会。这里的核心的驱动力是复苏，复苏不仅带来成长的烦恼，同时也带来价值的机会。\n美股今年明显是成长股和价值股之间的再平衡。只要今年美国流动性不是超预期的收紧，那么美国市场不存在系统性的熊市。随着盈利预测不断上调，动态市盈率在持续良性的下降，标普500动态市盈率自年初以来已经从大概28倍降到了22倍，体现的非常明显。\n至于A股市场，我们也认为，快则三月中，慢则五六月应该会逐步消化美债收益率上行的冲击、通胀上行的担忧，见底回升。届时可以理性面对经济复苏，更加关注于盈利基本面的改善所带来的机会，而淡化系统性熊市所带来的风险偏好的下降。\n上半年优质价值股存戴维斯双击机会\n下半年成长型核心资产将王者归来\n具体到投资机会上。第一，我们认为从3月中旬开始，无论是港股还是A股，周期类的优质资产有望跟上美股同行的节奏。从去年11月份开始，美股已经开始了风格切换，与经济复苏相关的周期类优质资产，如能源金融、工业、设备等行业，涨幅表现明显强于前两年的“当红炸子鸡”（科技，特别是信息技术行业，以及医疗、必需消费品等行业）。如果二季度欧美经济持续复苏，那么美国资本市场价值股持续走强，也会带动港股 A股的风格切换。\n所以对港股而言，优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。尤其是今年上半年，所谓的深度价值型（deep value）核心资产，既具有相对收益，也具有绝对收益。其中像金融、地产，能源、化工这些行业有7%甚至更高的分红收益率，未来两个月财报业绩也能够给市场充分释放催化剂。\n第二，有一点要确认，这一次的风格切换和以往的“煤飞色舞”、“基建房地产大放水”有所不同。因为今年政策上坚持房住不炒，地方债务上也要化解存量风险，对于房地产产业链的推动不会像以往那么强烈，这一次的风格更多地体现在两个动力源。\n第一动力是欧美经济复苏。这代表着受益更多的会是具有国际定价权的及国际竞争力的龙头资产，而不是整个板块的效应。需要从贝塔行业里面寻找阿尔法机会，不是说所有的周期性行业公司都能抓住这个机会，只有最优秀的核心资产才更具价值。\n第二动力是供给端的变化，也就是碳排放和碳达峰。从国内政策红利的角度来说，我们更多关注的是行业结构的变化，而不是从需求端看风格偏好或周期价值的重估。拿钢铁行业举个例子，可能一些高能耗的小钢铁厂最终就会难以坚持或被大钢厂并购。煤炭、化工也是如此，这是一种结构的优化，也可以说是“供给侧改革2.0版”。\n了解这些我们再看这次的风格切换，并不是说闭着眼睛去随便买周期股，也不能以投机心理去炒作周期股。关键的还是要看基本面逻辑，也就是看清楚这两大核心驱动力。\n最后，成长领域核心资产的机会依然有希望在下半年王者归来。\n需要注意的是，成长型核心资产在经过了过去两年甚至将近三年的上涨之后，在今年上半年需要面临一段时间的“休养生息”。现在大家讲的核心资产更多是一个博弈的逻辑，基金经理募集到资金后，肯定是会投到自己最熟悉的公司，由此在过去的这一两年时间里形成良性循环。但是最近一段时间以来，所有的利多因素都已经充分反映到估值里，一旦有些“风吹草动”，人心散掉，各类基金就开始面临资金赎回、需要卖出股票的境况，这必然带来净值的回落。由此引发的结果就是，即使是好资产标的，在这种风格切换发生的时候也会被杀估值。所以即便现在有一些优质的成长型核心资产，动态市盈率或PS已经趋于合理了，但是从相对回报率的角度来说，在今年上半年依然是不好的。如果说有机会就精选那些业绩超预期的阿尔法的机会。这种机会肯定是有，但这种机会可能更加属于专业的机构投资者，而并不是对于普通投资者，普通投资者要把握的其实是个大概率。\n到了今年下半年，财报数据带来好的业绩体现，这些核心资产的动态估值将非常有优势，同时一些卖出的博弈型力量都已清仓出局了。那个时候将迎来成长型核心资产的布局良机。说好公司它是永远在那里的，我，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，真正核心资产估值太贵的话肯定也是会跌的，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350616429,"gmtCreate":1616200580161,"gmtModify":1704792084022,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350616429","repostId":"1121651187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121651187","pubTimestamp":1616197580,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121651187?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 07:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杨洁篪、王毅同布林肯、沙利文举行中美高层战略对话","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121651187","media":"新华网","summary":"新华社美国安克雷奇3月19日电  当地时间3月18日至19日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪，国务委员兼外长王毅在安克雷奇同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文举行中美","content":"<div>\n<p>新华社美国安克雷奇3月19日电  当地时间3月18日至19日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪，国务委员兼外长王毅在安克雷奇同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文举行中美高层战略对话。双方围绕各自内外政策、中美关系以及共同关心的重大国际地区问题进行了坦诚、深入、长时间、建设性的沟通。双方认为对话是及时的、有益的，加深了相互理解。中方表示，中方是应美方邀请而来。中国农历...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9844264?channel=weixin\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xhw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杨洁篪、王毅同布林肯、沙利文举行中美高层战略对话\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-20 07:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9844264?channel=weixin><strong>新华网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新华社美国安克雷奇3月19日电  当地时间3月18日至19日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪，国务委员兼外长王毅在安克雷奇同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文举行中美高层战略对话。双方围绕各自内外政策、中美关系以及共同关心的重大国际地区问题进行了坦诚、深入、长时间、建设性的沟通。双方认为对话是及时的、有益的，加深了相互理解。中方表示，中方是应美方邀请而来。中国农历...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9844264?channel=weixin\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6b3ec4ed112f437b0da43e3b4c0339","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9844264?channel=weixin","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121651187","content_text":"新华社美国安克雷奇3月19日电  当地时间3月18日至19日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪，国务委员兼外长王毅在安克雷奇同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文举行中美高层战略对话。双方围绕各自内外政策、中美关系以及共同关心的重大国际地区问题进行了坦诚、深入、长时间、建设性的沟通。双方认为对话是及时的、有益的，加深了相互理解。中方表示，中方是应美方邀请而来。中国农历新年除夕，习近平主席同拜登总统成功通话，一致同意双方要加强沟通，管控分歧，拓展合作，这对今后一段时期中美关系发展具有重要指导意义。此次中方应邀来到安克雷奇同美方举行中美高层战略对话，是落实两国元首通话共识的重要举措，也是两国元首亲自决策举行的。过去几年，由于中国的正当权益受到无理打压，中美关系遭遇前所未有的严重困难。这种局面损害了两国人民利益，损害了世界稳定与发展，不应再继续下去了。中方愿同美方加强战略沟通，推动互利合作，妥善管控分歧，推动两国关系沿着健康稳定轨道向前发展，造福两国人民，促进世界持久和平与繁荣。中方强调，中国共产党的执政地位是历史的选择、人民的选择。中国的发展离不开中国共产党的领导，这是中国人民的高度共识，也是国际社会的普遍认知。中国特色社会主义制度是最符合中国国情的制度，是中国发展的“密码”。实践证明中国特色社会主义道路是一条正确的道路，我们将继续沿着这条康庄大道走下去。中国共产党的执政地位和制度安全不容损害，这是不可触碰的红线。中国的发展目标是一贯的、明确的，就是要通过艰苦奋斗实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标和中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦，根本目的是让全体中国人民过上好日子，这是我们制定一切政策的出发点。中国将立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局，实现高质量发展。任何人不能剥夺中国人民追求美好生活的权利。中国始终重视保护和促进人权，把改善民生、促进人的全面发展作为重点。中国特色社会主义民主是全民民主、协商民主，其核心是人民当家作主。中国不会将自己的民主制度和价值观强加给其他国家，同时坚定维护自身政治制度和价值观念，反对动辄拿人权问题作幌子对中方指责抹黑，干涉中方内政。中国的根本发展目标，对内就是满足人民群众对美好生活的向往，对外就是通过自身发展为全人类的发展进步作出贡献。中国无意干涉美国的政治制度，无意挑战或取代美国地位和影响。同时美方应当正确看待中国的政治制度和发展道路，正确看待中方一系列大政方针，正确看待中国对世界的影响。中国共产党的领导作用，党的领袖的核心地位，是在艰苦卓绝的实践中产生的，得到14亿中国人民的衷心拥护，这一集体意志坚如磐石，毫不动摇。中方指出，中国将坚定奉行独立自主的和平外交政策，坚持独立自主、坚持和平发展、坚持合作共赢、坚持多边主义、坚持公平正义，持续推动构建人类命运共同体。我们坚定捍卫国家主权和民族尊严，坚决反对别国对中国内部事务指手画脚，从中国人民和世界人民根本利益出发，根据事情本身的是非曲直独立决定政策立场。中国自己坚持走和平发展道路，也期待其他国家走和平发展道路，期待各国超越社会制度、文明宗教不同，和平共处、共创繁荣。合作共赢是中国发展的重要原则，也是中国对外交往的黄金法则。中国的发展成就是在开放条件下取得的，下一步谋求高质量发展也将在更加开放条件下推进。多边主义是现行国际体系的重要基石。真正的多边主义应当坚持《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则，尊重国际关系基本准则，尊重世界各国主权，尊重文明多样性，致力于国际关系民主化，而不应该拉“小圈子”，更不应该开历史倒车，以意识形态划线，重挑集团对抗。我们愿与美方在以联合国为代表的多边机制中维护真正的多边主义，为国际社会提供更多更优质的国际公共产品。我们一贯主张，国家无论大小、贫富、强弱，都是国际社会平等一员，不能谁的胳膊粗、拳头大谁说了算，更不能以大欺小、恃强凌弱。发展中国家的声音应该被倾听，发展中国家的权益理应得到保护。作为世界最大发展中国家和发达国家，中美应当携手深化南北合作，包括面向发展中国家开展第三方市场合作，共同推动实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标。中方表示，中美关系的本质是互利共赢而不是零和博弈。中美两国并不必然相互构成威胁，差异分歧并不构成中美对抗的理由，中美双方谁都无法承受冲突对抗的后果。中美两国应当相互信任而不是猜忌、相互理解而不是指责、相互合作而不是拆台，确保双方集中精力处理好各自国内的优先议程，实现各自的发展目标。两国可以在抗击新冠疫情、应对气候变化、推动世界经济复苏等当前国际社会最紧迫的三大任务上开展合作，在重大国际地区问题上加强沟通协调，为双方人文交流排除干扰，共同做大合作蛋糕，更多造福两国人民和世界人民。同时，合作应该是双向、互利的，平衡解决双方关切。中方对美政策保持高度稳定性和连续性，致力于同美方实现不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢，同时坚定捍卫自身主权、安全、发展利益。双方要根据两国元首通话精神，保持沟通渠道畅通，恢复正常对话交往机制，开展互利合作，妥善管控分歧，避免误解误判。两国有责任、有能力、有智慧找到不同政治制度大国相处之道，这将是中美两国为人类文明作出的历史性贡献。中方指出，过去几年来，由于美国上一届政府逆潮流而动，实行极端错误的反华政策，严重损害中国利益，严重损害中美关系，中方不得不采取正当必要措施维护自身主权、安全、发展利益。中方敦促美方消除上届政府对华错误政策影响，同时避免制造新的问题。中方指出，台湾问题事关中国主权和领土完整，涉及中国核心利益，没有任何妥协退让余地。我们敦促美方恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定，停止美台官方往来和军事联系，停止售台武器，不助台拓展所谓“国际空间”，慎重妥善处理台湾问题，不向“台独”势力发出任何错误信号，不要试图突破中方底线，以免严重损害中美关系和台海和平稳定。中方指出，中国香港特区的选举制度是中国的地方选举制度，完善香港特区选举制度是中央事权，如何设计、如何发展、如何完善是中国内政，任何外国政府、组织和个人都无权干涉。完善香港特区选举制度必须坚持“爱国者治港”。我们敦促美方恪守国际法和国际关系基本准则，尊重中国全国人大关于完善香港特区选举制度的决定，停止插手香港事务和中国内政，停止为“港独”势力撑腰打气，撤销对中国官员和机构的非法制裁，不要再试图搞乱香港，不要阻挡中国推进“一国两制”的进程。如果美国继续一意孤行，中国必将作出坚定回应。中方指出，把“种族灭绝”的帽子戴到中国头上，是本世纪最大的谎言。中方愿同美方在相互尊重的基础上进行交流，新疆的大门向世界敞开，但我们不接受带着偏见、居高临下、像教师爷一样到新疆去搞所谓“有罪推定”式的调查。希望美方尊重客观事实，停止攻击抹黑中国治疆政策，放弃在反恐问题上搞双重标准。中方指出，第十四世达赖是打着宗教幌子、长期从事反华分裂活动的政治流亡者。希望美方恪守承认西藏是中国一部分、不支持“藏独”的承诺，慎重妥善处理涉藏问题，撤销对中方有关官员的制裁，停止利用涉藏问题干涉中国内政。双方同意按照两国元首2月11日通话精神，保持对话沟通，开展互利合作，防止误解误判，避免冲突对抗，推动中美关系健康稳定发展。双方都希望继续这种高层战略沟通。双方均致力于加强在气候变化领域对话合作，双方将建立中美气候变化联合工作组。美方重申在台湾问题上坚持一个中国政策。双方探讨了为各自外交领事人员接种新冠疫苗作出对等安排。双方将本着对等互惠的精神就便利彼此外交领事机构和人员活动以及媒体记者相关问题进行商谈。双方讨论了根据疫情形势调整相关旅行和签证政策并逐步推动中美人员往来正常化事宜。双方还讨论了经贸、两军、执法、人文、卫生、网络安全以及气候变化、伊朗核、阿富汗、朝鲜半岛、缅甸等一系列问题，同意保持和加强沟通协调。双方表示将围绕二十国集团、亚太经合组织等多边活动加强协调磋商。【早前报道】新华社美国安克雷奇3月19日电 当地时间3月18日至19日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪，国务委员兼外长王毅在安克雷奇同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文举行中美高层战略对话。双方围绕各自内外政策、中美关系以及共同关心的重大国际地区问题进行了坦诚、深入、长时间、建设性的沟通。双方认为对话是及时的、有益的，加深了相互理解。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324438168,"gmtCreate":1616024084254,"gmtModify":1704789786576,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324438168","repostId":"1139464643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325991551,"gmtCreate":1615855571273,"gmtModify":1704787472674,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie great","listText":"okie great","text":"okie great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325991551","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322342951,"gmtCreate":1615777093273,"gmtModify":1704786344394,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322342951","repostId":"1133865277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133865277","pubTimestamp":1615775463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133865277?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133865277","media":"Barrons","summary":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popula","content":"<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s&nbsp;Invenomic&nbsp;fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.</p><p>That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.</p><p>“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.</p><p>How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”</p><p>Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.</p><p>For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.</p><p>But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.</p><p>Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”</p><p>Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.</p><p>What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.</p><p>Companies with high valuations like&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of&nbsp;Hotchkis &amp; Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.</p><p>In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.</p><p>That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.</p><p>Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.</p><p>Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133865277","content_text":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s Invenomic fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.Companies with high valuations like Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of Hotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328108362,"gmtCreate":1615504099556,"gmtModify":1704783688954,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328108362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321434389,"gmtCreate":1615460088641,"gmtModify":1704783043525,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321434389","repostId":"2118536986","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323802064,"gmtCreate":1615325805258,"gmtModify":1704781131008,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323802064","repostId":"2118364745","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2118364745","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1615328031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118364745?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 06:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118364745","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","content":"<html><body><p>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-10 06:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/node/20086590","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118364745","content_text":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367148162,"gmtCreate":1614927023556,"gmtModify":1704777066302,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367148162","repostId":"2117856806","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117856806","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614919574,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117856806?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 12:46","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117856806","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as invest","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.</p>\n<p>** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.</p>\n<p>** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.</p>\n<p>** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.</p>\n<p>** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.</p>\n<p>** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.</p>\n<p>** The Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.</p>\n<p>** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.</p>\n<p>** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.</p>\n<p>** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.</p>\n<p>** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina shares fall as parliamentary meeting sets conservative growth target\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 12:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.</p>\n<p>** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.</p>\n<p>** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.</p>\n<p>** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.</p>\n<p>** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.</p>\n<p>** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.</p>\n<p>** The Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.</p>\n<p>** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.</p>\n<p>** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.</p>\n<p>** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.</p>\n<p>** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117856806","content_text":"SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China shares ended a see-saw morning session lower on Friday as investors digested a modest annual growth target set in the premier's annual work report and a stronger commitment to supporting home-grown technology.\n** Chinese Premier Li Keqiang revealed a modest above-6% economic growth target for the country this year in his work report, below analyst consensus, as the economy emerges from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19.\n** The low target frees up Beijing to deal with economic issues detrimental to long-term stability, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.\n** \"The speech of Chairman Guo Shuqing of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Tuesday clearly conveyed the government's concern about the risk of bubbles in the current market, and also made it clear that interest rates will rise this year. His speech and today's government work report sent a consistent message,\" Zhang said.\n** Chinese shares have come under pressure in recent weeks on investor concern around policy tightening.\n** At the midday break, China's blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.51%, extending losses over the past two weeks to more than 9%. It fell more than 2% in early trade and briefly moved higher before stabilising.\n** The Shanghai Composite index dipped 0.34% to 3,491.69.\n** Real estate firms dropped 2.68% after Li said China would stabilise land and house prices and warned against speculation.\n** Tech firms outperformed after the work report said China would increase its annual research and development spending by more than 7% every year over the next five years.\n** The smaller Shenzhen index edged up 0.08%, the start-up board ChiNext Composite index rose 0.55% and Shanghai's tech-focused STAR50 index added 0.09%.\n** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong fell 0.26% to 11,296.26, while the Hang Seng Index was down 0.28% at 29,155.40.\n** The yuan was quoted at 6.4725 per U.S. dollar, 0.03% weaker than the previous close of 6.4708.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367143406,"gmtCreate":1614926811605,"gmtModify":1704777064153,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367143406","repostId":"2117568659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117568659","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614924128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117568659?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 14:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117568659","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday","content":"<p>NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.</p><p>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.</p><p>Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.</p><p>\"As <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.</p><p>India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.</p><p>Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.</p><p>India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.</p><p>Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.</p><p>However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil guzzler India says OPEC+ decision to hit economic recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 14:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.</p><p>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.</p><p>Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.</p><p>\"As <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.</p><p>India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.</p><p>Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.</p><p>India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.</p><p>Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.</p><p>However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117568659","content_text":"NEW DELHI, March 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, on Friday said the decision by major producers to continue with output cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose after announcement and are up 33% this year.Brent crude futures for May on Friday rose nearly 1%, to $67.44 a barrel, and are on track for a near 2% gain this week.\"As one of the largest crude-consuming countries, India is concerned that such actions by producing countries have the potential to undermine consumption-led recovery and more so hurt consumers, especially in our price-sensitive market,\" Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters.India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\"We were really hopeful that OPEC and OPEC+ would have eased the production cuts to some degree taking into account the fragile recovery of the global economy, particularly in developing countries,\" Pradhan said.Rising oil prices are posing fiscal challenges for India, where heavily-taxed retail fuel prices have touched record highs in some parts of the country, threatening the demand-driven recovery.India, Asia's third-largest economy, imports about 84% of its oil and relies on Middle Eastern supplies for meeting over three-fifths of its demand.Responding to India's repeated request for an increase in output, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman responded on Thursday by saying India should start using oil it  bought cheaply during the price collapse last year.However, he said, \"we will continue to work with each other...we share their (India's) view that avoidance of volatility (in prices) will help both producers and consumers.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>消息称小红书聘请CFO，考虑在美进行IPO</title>\n<style 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00:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行（ipo）打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露，该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官，并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323802064,"gmtCreate":1615325805258,"gmtModify":1704781131008,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323802064","repostId":"2118364745","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2118364745","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock 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content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-10 06:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/node/20086590","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118364745","content_text":"GameStop To Report Q4 Earnings On Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2021 After Market Close","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>摘要<b>：</b></p><blockquote>财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等</blockquote><blockquote>事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等</blockquote><blockquote>新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束</blockquote><p><b>1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周一，经济数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>美国Markit制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>中国香港零售销售额年率</b>等。<b>重点关注港股及美股开市情况。</b></p><p><b>新股方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">环龙控股</a>申购结束。</p><p>此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易<b>。港股、美股正常交易。</b></p><p><b>1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周二，财经数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>中国财新制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>美国ISM制造业PMI</b>。</p><p>此外，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a></b>将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。</p><p><b>1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI</b></p><p><b>周三，</b>美国将公布<b>小非农ADP就业数据</b>。同时，投资者可关注美国<b>当周API原油库存</b>、<b>EIA原油库存</b>、以及<b>美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值</b>等。</p><p><b>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></b>将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。</p><p><b>1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率</b>等数据将陆续公布<b>。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>美联储FOMC将公布<b>货币政策会议纪要</b>。</p><p><b>1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周五，全球财经数据方面，</b>美国将公布<b>12月季调后非农就业人口数据</b>以及<b>12月失业率。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。</p><p><b>新股方面，</b>小黄鸭母公司<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">德盈控股</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">金力永磁</a>申购结束。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：美国非农大戏上演！港股、美股周一开市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>摘要<b>：</b></p><blockquote>财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等</blockquote><blockquote>事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等</blockquote><blockquote>新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束</blockquote><p><b>1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周一，经济数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>美国Markit制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>中国香港零售销售额年率</b>等。<b>重点关注港股及美股开市情况。</b></p><p><b>新股方面，</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">环龙控股</a>申购结束。</p><p>此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易<b>。港股、美股正常交易。</b></p><p><b>1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周二，财经数据方面，</b>投资者可关注<b>中国财新制造业PMI</b>、以及<b>美国ISM制造业PMI</b>。</p><p>此外，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a></b>将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。</p><p><b>1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI</b></p><p><b>周三，</b>美国将公布<b>小非农ADP就业数据</b>。同时，投资者可关注美国<b>当周API原油库存</b>、<b>EIA原油库存</b>、以及<b>美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值</b>等。</p><p><b>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></b>将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。</p><p><b>1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率</b>等数据将陆续公布<b>。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>美联储FOMC将公布<b>货币政策会议纪要</b>。</p><p><b>1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>周五，全球财经数据方面，</b>美国将公布<b>12月季调后非农就业人口数据</b>以及<b>12月失业率。</b></p><p><b>财经事件方面，</b>FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。</p><p><b>新股方面，</b>小黄鸭母公司<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">德盈控股</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">金力永磁</a>申购结束。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要：财经数据方面：中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面：AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面：环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词：美国ISM制造业PMI，港股通/沪深股通暂停交易，港股、美股开市周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面，环龙控股申购结束。此外，因元旦假期安排，A股休市，港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词：中国财新制造业PMI，美国ISM制造业PMI，AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二，财经数据方面，投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外，美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会，总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士（Dr. Lisa Su）将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词：小非农ADP就业数据，API原油，EIA原油，Markit服务业PMI周三，美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时，投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外，英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四：美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四，全球财经数据方面，中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面，美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词：美国非农就业人口，美国12月失业率周五，全球财经数据方面，美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面，FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面，小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011179175,"gmtCreate":1648848050573,"gmtModify":1676534408086,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011179175","repostId":"1139458358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"洪灝：价值王者归来进行时","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>概要</b></p><p>成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《<i><b>2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用</b></i>》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《<i><b>2021年展望：价值王者归来</b></i>》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。</p><p>当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。</p><p>全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。</p><p>周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。</p><p>尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。</p><p>这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《<b>Value Striking Back</b>》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。</p><p><b>价值正在王者归来</b></p><p><b>全球经济复苏</b></p><p>复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《<i><b>预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫</b></i>》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。</p><p>在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《<i><b>2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用</b></i>》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《<b><i>2021年展望：价值王者归来</i></b>》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。</p><p>为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(<b>图表1</b>)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">和信贷</a>扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。</p><p><b>图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a></p><p>与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (<b>图表2</b>)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《<i><b>2021年展望:价值王者归来</b></i>》中所做的预测一致。</p><p><b>图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a></p><p><b>中美经济的交错联动</b></p><p>中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《<i><b>中美周期的冲突</b></i>》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。</p><p>中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(<b>图表3</b>)</p><p><b>图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p><b>价值正在王者归来</b></p><p>为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(<b>图表4</b>)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。</p><p>疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。</p><p>后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(<b>图表4</b>)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。</p><p><b>图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（<b>图表5</b>）。</p><p>正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。</p><p>从<b>图表5</b>中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。</p><p><b>图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (<b>图表6</b>)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《<i><b>展望2021:价值王者归来</b></i>》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?</p><p><b>图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(<b>图表7</b>)。这些观察结果与前文的<b>图表5</b>和<b>图表6</b>一致。</p><p>也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。</p><p><b>图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p><b>地缘政治风险扰动市场</b></p><p>最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(<b>图表8</b>)。</p><p>此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。</p><p><b>图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p><p>总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（<b>图表9</b>）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。</p><p><b>图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灝：价值王者归来进行时</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灝：价值王者归来进行时\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 14:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>洪灝的中国市场...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源：彭博，交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源：彭博，交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(图表4)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源：彭博，交银国际在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（图表5）。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源：彭博，交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力资料来源：彭博，交银国际总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（图表9）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322342951,"gmtCreate":1615777093273,"gmtModify":1704786344394,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322342951","repostId":"1133865277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133865277","pubTimestamp":1615775463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133865277?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133865277","media":"Barrons","summary":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popula","content":"<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s&nbsp;Invenomic&nbsp;fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.</p><p>That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.</p><p>“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.</p><p>How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”</p><p>Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.</p><p>For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.</p><p>But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.</p><p>Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”</p><p>Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.</p><p>What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.</p><p>Companies with high valuations like&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of&nbsp;Hotchkis &amp; Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.</p><p>In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.</p><p>That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.</p><p>Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.</p><p>Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Value Managers Rejoice: What’s Next for Value vs. Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133865277","content_text":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, Motamed’s Invenomic fund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both the Russell 2000 Value Index of the smallest, cheapest stocks and the Russell 1000 Value Index of the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. The Russell 3000 Growth Index had aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus the Russell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks likeKinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) orShopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.Companies with high valuations like Tesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager of Hotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354334953,"gmtCreate":1617140992272,"gmtModify":1704696268829,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354334953","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359117830,"gmtCreate":1616373647320,"gmtModify":1704793146468,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359117830","repostId":"1145429048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350792599,"gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":"1119218309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350616429,"gmtCreate":1616200580161,"gmtModify":1704792084022,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350616429","repostId":"1121651187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324438168,"gmtCreate":1616024084254,"gmtModify":1704789786576,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie&nbsp;","listText":"Okie&nbsp;","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324438168","repostId":"1139464643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139464643","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注TMT趋势，追踪资本动态","home_visible":1,"media_name":"略大参考","id":"1025091182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de07e0f22147b0ad351b86fff86dd4"},"pubTimestamp":1615992620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139464643?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 22:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄峥辞任拼多多董事长，他离段永平更近了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139464643","media":"略大参考","summary":"黄峥用资本实现了人生自由，现在他要实现对资本的再分配自由。\n\n3月17日，拼多多创始人黄峥发布2021年度致股东信，宣布不再担任董事长和拼多多管理职位。经董事会批准后，董事长职位交棒给现任CEO陈磊。","content":"<blockquote>\n 黄峥用资本实现了人生自由，现在他要实现对资本的再分配自由。\n</blockquote>\n<p>3月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>创始人黄峥发布2021年度致股东信，宣布不再担任董事长和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>管理职位。经董事会批准后，董事长职位交棒给现任CEO陈磊。</p>\n<p>此外，黄峥的1:10的超级投票权也将失效，名下股份的投票权将委托<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>董事会，以投票的方式来进行决策。同时黄峥承诺，个人名下的股票在未来3年内继续锁定，不出售。</p>\n<p>黄峥在拼多多高速发展阶段，卸任董事长一职的操作，像素级Copy他的“精神偶像”段永平。后者在40岁的时候，选择“急流勇退”，退出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>的日常管理，举家搬到美国。</p>\n<p>中国企业家里，贪恋牌桌不愿离场的很多。段永平不是，他在人生的不同阶段，选择的牌桌不一样。因为对妻子的承诺，段永平拥抱家庭，搬去美国。这种“放弃”，并没有令他的人生有所缩减，反让他成为一名价值投资人。</p>\n<p>将军从来不会只有一处战场，黄峥辞任拼多多董事长后，将专注于食品科学和生命科学领域。他说为十年后的拼多多探索高速高质量纵深发展的新空间。</p>\n<p>略大参考之前发表过《黄峥复制了段永平》的文章，讲了段永平“信人所以大成”的经营哲学。此处旧闻重发，亦可再读。</p>\n<p>40岁的黄峥，选择卸任拼多多CEO职务，远离公司一线业务，思考未来的长期规划。</p>\n<p>他的人生导师段永平，也是在40岁这一年退出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>日常经营管理，举家定居美国，每年只回国几次，参加公司董事会。</p>\n<p>几乎相似的人生节奏，背后是两位长期主义者对价值的思考。他们关注资本的积累，也关注分配，在他们的思维里，金钱、公司等资本要素，都不如“人”来得更有价值。</p>\n<p>段永平不在江湖，但江湖上一直有他的传闻，因为他成就了多位优秀的企业家。他建议丁磊做游戏，成就了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>近20年的繁荣，他将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>一分为三，有了如今的OPPO和VIVO。</p>\n<p>他发掘黄峥，并一路指点历练，后者硬生生在巨头割据的电商市场，用五年时间跑出中国第二大电商平台。</p>\n<p>段永平不在江湖，外界却一直关注他的神话。因为他的价值观在不同的企业家身上得到贯彻。段永平糅合了松下幸之助和巴菲特的经营理念和投资方法，如今，黄峥又复制了段永平。</p>\n<p><b>1、育人</b></p>\n<p>最近，拼多多突然搞出两个大新闻。一是，黄峥宣布卸任CEO，由原CTO陈磊接任。</p>\n<p>二是，黄峥出让部分股权，用于合伙人建设和慈善事业，他的控股比例由43.3%降低到29.4%。</p>\n<p>一家成立五年即成长为中国第二大电商平台，且市值已经破千亿美元的电商企业，掌舵人突然宣布退出一线业务，关注长期发展，不免令外界惊诧。</p>\n<p>拼多多的任命也很特别。</p>\n<p>作为强调流量的电商企业，它的新任CEO 却是技术出身的CTO，而非通常情况下，被认为更擅长营销和流量的高管。比如， 接替了刘强东的徐雷，就以擅长营销跟统筹著称。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2535382e675e55622a06f9a1059b87d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：陈磊</p>\n<p>另一方面，黄峥宣布要完善合伙人制度，划出其个人名下3.71亿股拼多多普通股(约占公司总股数7.74%)，用来完善合伙人集体。</p>\n<p>黄峥说，“我希望通过这次调整，管理层可以逐步把更多的管理工作和责任交给更年轻的同事，让团队加速成长，让拼多多成为一个更好更强的持续充满创业活力的公司。”</p>\n<p>这个想法跟他两年前的思考几乎背道而驰。</p>\n<p>拼多多上市第二天召开全体员工会，现场有员工问上市之后有“期权”吗？黄峥说没有，决绝的回答同当时欢庆的气氛并不相宜。</p>\n<p><b>企业的核心并不应该只有一把手。</b>我们提到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，会想到马云，但并不仅限于马云，也包括张勇、井贤栋、彭蕾等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>合伙人。</p>\n<p>提到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，我们会想到马化腾、刘炽平、张小龙、任宇昕等等。</p>\n<p>拼多多跑出了中国商业史上独一无二的速度，快到在资本介入社交电商赛道之前，就已经跑出了规模。但是，提到拼多多，除了黄峥，你还能想到谁？</p>\n<p>一家企业长期发展一定要培养人才梯队。显然，拼多多需要除黄峥之外，另具辨识度的名片。</p>\n<p>何况，黄峥这张名片，本身个性也不够强烈。</p>\n<p>这位创业者低调神秘，不喜站在人前，就像他的导师段永平一样。</p>\n<p>段永平因为持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>股票获超50倍的收入，一战封神，被封为中国的股神。但据他自己说，购入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>股票时，会很刻意规避5%的限额，因为按照SEC的规定，持股超过5%需要申报。段永平不希望被外界关注到，他会选择将持有的网易股票捐给家族基金Enllgnt Foundation，或者是卖掉一部分股票，达到不需要向SEC申报的持股比例。</p>\n<p>此番，黄峥拿出个人名下10.11%的股票用于慈善和合伙人计划，被外界解读为不愿意当中国的第二富豪。</p>\n<p>这种做法也很黄峥，他曾说过，自己如果不是拼多多的CEO，根本不愿意接受媒体采访。</p>\n<p><b>2、本分</b></p>\n<p>“我只想要富一次。”</p>\n<p>这是段永平用62万美金成功竞拍巴菲特午餐之后，获得的“秘籍”，当时黄峥也在现场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787c67be5c6423ab9a4f39e362d75b04\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：段永平</p>\n<p>如果将时间的长度锁定为一生，就会知道“只富一次”是多难达到的目标。漫漫人生路程中的任何一个失误，都会将现有积累起来的基业全数打翻，重新来过。</p>\n<p>巴菲特讲，投资成功九十九次，一次投资失败，会将一切收益归零。</p>\n<p>段永平将这份理念拓展为“发现错了马上改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”。<b>他将及时止损的逻辑发挥到极致。</b></p>\n<p>段永平曾用这个逻辑说明他当初为何离开小霸王，创办步步高。他说，如果你感觉到5年以后，这项业务是没有未来，那么现在结束，是付出代价最小的时候。</p>\n<p>而这些原则的底层逻辑，是段永平的价值哲学。他将此定义为“本分”。</p>\n<p>段永平是将经营之神松下幸之助和投资之神巴菲特的理念合二为一的人。他借鉴松下幸之助的管理经验“素直”——这个词汇通常用来形容一个人不受任何事物束缚，能够做出正确判断——创造出了“本分”的概念。</p>\n<p>段永平说本分就是回到事物的本原，就是做对的事情和把事情做对。他说很多人经常做一些明知是错的事情，是因为抵挡不了短期利益的诱惑。</p>\n<p>黄峥将本分也作为拼多多的价值观，他将拼多多的本分解释为专注于为消费者创造价值。</p>\n<p>任命陈磊为公司的CEO，很符合他对本分的看法。</p>\n<p>拼多多代表的电商匹配场景里，“货找人”，即AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>推荐将扮演更重要的角色。而陈磊研究分布式AI，被视为将提高消费者与商品的匹配效率，实现「货找人」的 AI 电商应用场景。</p>\n<p>黄峥的本分还体现于拼多多上市后，他曾宣布拼多多的高管所持股份锁定三年不能卖。</p>\n<p><b>3、分配</b></p>\n<p>每一位长期价值者都会关注巴菲特。</p>\n<p>黄峥称赞巴菲特是一位极具天赋的，能把资本的游戏玩到极致的资本家；更是一位可爱的人，他清楚地知道钱不是目的。他一方面享受着资本游戏带给他的快乐，另一方面有智慧地把绝大多数钱捐给了比他年轻的比尔盖茨，放心地让盖茨去完成财富应有的再分配。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9495192c4af777f58df94ab83a6424e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：黄峥与巴菲特</p>\n<p>黄峥关注财富积累，也关心分配。拼多多是他关注财务分配的一次实验，如果将“用户”不确定的需求确定化，它将创造新的需求，它可以成为用户同企业谈判的筹码。</p>\n<p>拼多多以拼的形式，汇总用户需求，去获取低价。</p>\n<p>同样，黄峥个人也像他的导师段永平一样，走在\"资本先积累再分配\"的道路。</p>\n<p><b>起初，他用钱解决自由。</b>通过在Google的工作经历，他一定程度上解决了财务自由。拼多多上市后，一路高涨的市值，让这份自由更具财富价值。</p>\n<p><b>现在，他要实现对钱的自由。</b>在拼多多内部的告知信中，他宣布划出个人名下10.11%的拼多多股份，用于慈善和拼多多的合伙人建设。</p>\n<p>黄峥说钱是工具，不是目的。段永平说钱很麻烦。</p>\n<p>他们都将自己积累的资本投入到慈善事业中。段永平捐助了浙江大学的图书馆，并宣布竺可桢基金会的每一元慈善支出，他将同比例配相关资金。黄峥选择成立“繁星慈善基金”，推动社会责任建设和科学研究。</p>\n<p>在他们眼中，钱只是一串数字。他们终究要用公益、慈善去实现对资本的自由。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄峥辞任拼多多董事长，他离段永平更近了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1025091182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de07e0f22147b0ad351b86fff86dd4);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">略大参考 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-17 22:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 黄峥用资本实现了人生自由，现在他要实现对资本的再分配自由。\n</blockquote>\n<p>3月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>创始人黄峥发布2021年度致股东信，宣布不再担任董事长和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>管理职位。经董事会批准后，董事长职位交棒给现任CEO陈磊。</p>\n<p>此外，黄峥的1:10的超级投票权也将失效，名下股份的投票权将委托<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>董事会，以投票的方式来进行决策。同时黄峥承诺，个人名下的股票在未来3年内继续锁定，不出售。</p>\n<p>黄峥在拼多多高速发展阶段，卸任董事长一职的操作，像素级Copy他的“精神偶像”段永平。后者在40岁的时候，选择“急流勇退”，退出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>的日常管理，举家搬到美国。</p>\n<p>中国企业家里，贪恋牌桌不愿离场的很多。段永平不是，他在人生的不同阶段，选择的牌桌不一样。因为对妻子的承诺，段永平拥抱家庭，搬去美国。这种“放弃”，并没有令他的人生有所缩减，反让他成为一名价值投资人。</p>\n<p>将军从来不会只有一处战场，黄峥辞任拼多多董事长后，将专注于食品科学和生命科学领域。他说为十年后的拼多多探索高速高质量纵深发展的新空间。</p>\n<p>略大参考之前发表过《黄峥复制了段永平》的文章，讲了段永平“信人所以大成”的经营哲学。此处旧闻重发，亦可再读。</p>\n<p>40岁的黄峥，选择卸任拼多多CEO职务，远离公司一线业务，思考未来的长期规划。</p>\n<p>他的人生导师段永平，也是在40岁这一年退出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>日常经营管理，举家定居美国，每年只回国几次，参加公司董事会。</p>\n<p>几乎相似的人生节奏，背后是两位长期主义者对价值的思考。他们关注资本的积累，也关注分配，在他们的思维里，金钱、公司等资本要素，都不如“人”来得更有价值。</p>\n<p>段永平不在江湖，但江湖上一直有他的传闻，因为他成就了多位优秀的企业家。他建议丁磊做游戏，成就了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>近20年的繁荣，他将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>一分为三，有了如今的OPPO和VIVO。</p>\n<p>他发掘黄峥，并一路指点历练，后者硬生生在巨头割据的电商市场，用五年时间跑出中国第二大电商平台。</p>\n<p>段永平不在江湖，外界却一直关注他的神话。因为他的价值观在不同的企业家身上得到贯彻。段永平糅合了松下幸之助和巴菲特的经营理念和投资方法，如今，黄峥又复制了段永平。</p>\n<p><b>1、育人</b></p>\n<p>最近，拼多多突然搞出两个大新闻。一是，黄峥宣布卸任CEO，由原CTO陈磊接任。</p>\n<p>二是，黄峥出让部分股权，用于合伙人建设和慈善事业，他的控股比例由43.3%降低到29.4%。</p>\n<p>一家成立五年即成长为中国第二大电商平台，且市值已经破千亿美元的电商企业，掌舵人突然宣布退出一线业务，关注长期发展，不免令外界惊诧。</p>\n<p>拼多多的任命也很特别。</p>\n<p>作为强调流量的电商企业，它的新任CEO 却是技术出身的CTO，而非通常情况下，被认为更擅长营销和流量的高管。比如， 接替了刘强东的徐雷，就以擅长营销跟统筹著称。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2535382e675e55622a06f9a1059b87d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：陈磊</p>\n<p>另一方面，黄峥宣布要完善合伙人制度，划出其个人名下3.71亿股拼多多普通股(约占公司总股数7.74%)，用来完善合伙人集体。</p>\n<p>黄峥说，“我希望通过这次调整，管理层可以逐步把更多的管理工作和责任交给更年轻的同事，让团队加速成长，让拼多多成为一个更好更强的持续充满创业活力的公司。”</p>\n<p>这个想法跟他两年前的思考几乎背道而驰。</p>\n<p>拼多多上市第二天召开全体员工会，现场有员工问上市之后有“期权”吗？黄峥说没有，决绝的回答同当时欢庆的气氛并不相宜。</p>\n<p><b>企业的核心并不应该只有一把手。</b>我们提到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，会想到马云，但并不仅限于马云，也包括张勇、井贤栋、彭蕾等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>合伙人。</p>\n<p>提到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，我们会想到马化腾、刘炽平、张小龙、任宇昕等等。</p>\n<p>拼多多跑出了中国商业史上独一无二的速度，快到在资本介入社交电商赛道之前，就已经跑出了规模。但是，提到拼多多，除了黄峥，你还能想到谁？</p>\n<p>一家企业长期发展一定要培养人才梯队。显然，拼多多需要除黄峥之外，另具辨识度的名片。</p>\n<p>何况，黄峥这张名片，本身个性也不够强烈。</p>\n<p>这位创业者低调神秘，不喜站在人前，就像他的导师段永平一样。</p>\n<p>段永平因为持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>股票获超50倍的收入，一战封神，被封为中国的股神。但据他自己说，购入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>股票时，会很刻意规避5%的限额，因为按照SEC的规定，持股超过5%需要申报。段永平不希望被外界关注到，他会选择将持有的网易股票捐给家族基金Enllgnt Foundation，或者是卖掉一部分股票，达到不需要向SEC申报的持股比例。</p>\n<p>此番，黄峥拿出个人名下10.11%的股票用于慈善和合伙人计划，被外界解读为不愿意当中国的第二富豪。</p>\n<p>这种做法也很黄峥，他曾说过，自己如果不是拼多多的CEO，根本不愿意接受媒体采访。</p>\n<p><b>2、本分</b></p>\n<p>“我只想要富一次。”</p>\n<p>这是段永平用62万美金成功竞拍巴菲特午餐之后，获得的“秘籍”，当时黄峥也在现场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787c67be5c6423ab9a4f39e362d75b04\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：段永平</p>\n<p>如果将时间的长度锁定为一生，就会知道“只富一次”是多难达到的目标。漫漫人生路程中的任何一个失误，都会将现有积累起来的基业全数打翻，重新来过。</p>\n<p>巴菲特讲，投资成功九十九次，一次投资失败，会将一切收益归零。</p>\n<p>段永平将这份理念拓展为“发现错了马上改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”。<b>他将及时止损的逻辑发挥到极致。</b></p>\n<p>段永平曾用这个逻辑说明他当初为何离开小霸王，创办步步高。他说，如果你感觉到5年以后，这项业务是没有未来，那么现在结束，是付出代价最小的时候。</p>\n<p>而这些原则的底层逻辑，是段永平的价值哲学。他将此定义为“本分”。</p>\n<p>段永平是将经营之神松下幸之助和投资之神巴菲特的理念合二为一的人。他借鉴松下幸之助的管理经验“素直”——这个词汇通常用来形容一个人不受任何事物束缚，能够做出正确判断——创造出了“本分”的概念。</p>\n<p>段永平说本分就是回到事物的本原，就是做对的事情和把事情做对。他说很多人经常做一些明知是错的事情，是因为抵挡不了短期利益的诱惑。</p>\n<p>黄峥将本分也作为拼多多的价值观，他将拼多多的本分解释为专注于为消费者创造价值。</p>\n<p>任命陈磊为公司的CEO，很符合他对本分的看法。</p>\n<p>拼多多代表的电商匹配场景里，“货找人”，即AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>推荐将扮演更重要的角色。而陈磊研究分布式AI，被视为将提高消费者与商品的匹配效率，实现「货找人」的 AI 电商应用场景。</p>\n<p>黄峥的本分还体现于拼多多上市后，他曾宣布拼多多的高管所持股份锁定三年不能卖。</p>\n<p><b>3、分配</b></p>\n<p>每一位长期价值者都会关注巴菲特。</p>\n<p>黄峥称赞巴菲特是一位极具天赋的，能把资本的游戏玩到极致的资本家；更是一位可爱的人，他清楚地知道钱不是目的。他一方面享受着资本游戏带给他的快乐，另一方面有智慧地把绝大多数钱捐给了比他年轻的比尔盖茨，放心地让盖茨去完成财富应有的再分配。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9495192c4af777f58df94ab83a6424e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图：黄峥与巴菲特</p>\n<p>黄峥关注财富积累，也关心分配。拼多多是他关注财务分配的一次实验，如果将“用户”不确定的需求确定化，它将创造新的需求，它可以成为用户同企业谈判的筹码。</p>\n<p>拼多多以拼的形式，汇总用户需求，去获取低价。</p>\n<p>同样，黄峥个人也像他的导师段永平一样，走在\"资本先积累再分配\"的道路。</p>\n<p><b>起初，他用钱解决自由。</b>通过在Google的工作经历，他一定程度上解决了财务自由。拼多多上市后，一路高涨的市值，让这份自由更具财富价值。</p>\n<p><b>现在，他要实现对钱的自由。</b>在拼多多内部的告知信中，他宣布划出个人名下10.11%的拼多多股份，用于慈善和拼多多的合伙人建设。</p>\n<p>黄峥说钱是工具，不是目的。段永平说钱很麻烦。</p>\n<p>他们都将自己积累的资本投入到慈善事业中。段永平捐助了浙江大学的图书馆，并宣布竺可桢基金会的每一元慈善支出，他将同比例配相关资金。黄峥选择成立“繁星慈善基金”，推动社会责任建设和科学研究。</p>\n<p>在他们眼中，钱只是一串数字。他们终究要用公益、慈善去实现对资本的自由。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb5f854961c549280cf75e7f5b207f9","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139464643","content_text":"黄峥用资本实现了人生自由，现在他要实现对资本的再分配自由。\n\n3月17日，拼多多创始人黄峥发布2021年度致股东信，宣布不再担任董事长和拼多多管理职位。经董事会批准后，董事长职位交棒给现任CEO陈磊。\n此外，黄峥的1:10的超级投票权也将失效，名下股份的投票权将委托拼多多董事会，以投票的方式来进行决策。同时黄峥承诺，个人名下的股票在未来3年内继续锁定，不出售。\n黄峥在拼多多高速发展阶段，卸任董事长一职的操作，像素级Copy他的“精神偶像”段永平。后者在40岁的时候，选择“急流勇退”，退出步步高的日常管理，举家搬到美国。\n中国企业家里，贪恋牌桌不愿离场的很多。段永平不是，他在人生的不同阶段，选择的牌桌不一样。因为对妻子的承诺，段永平拥抱家庭，搬去美国。这种“放弃”，并没有令他的人生有所缩减，反让他成为一名价值投资人。\n将军从来不会只有一处战场，黄峥辞任拼多多董事长后，将专注于食品科学和生命科学领域。他说为十年后的拼多多探索高速高质量纵深发展的新空间。\n略大参考之前发表过《黄峥复制了段永平》的文章，讲了段永平“信人所以大成”的经营哲学。此处旧闻重发，亦可再读。\n40岁的黄峥，选择卸任拼多多CEO职务，远离公司一线业务，思考未来的长期规划。\n他的人生导师段永平，也是在40岁这一年退出了步步高日常经营管理，举家定居美国，每年只回国几次，参加公司董事会。\n几乎相似的人生节奏，背后是两位长期主义者对价值的思考。他们关注资本的积累，也关注分配，在他们的思维里，金钱、公司等资本要素，都不如“人”来得更有价值。\n段永平不在江湖，但江湖上一直有他的传闻，因为他成就了多位优秀的企业家。他建议丁磊做游戏，成就了网易近20年的繁荣，他将步步高一分为三，有了如今的OPPO和VIVO。\n他发掘黄峥，并一路指点历练，后者硬生生在巨头割据的电商市场，用五年时间跑出中国第二大电商平台。\n段永平不在江湖，外界却一直关注他的神话。因为他的价值观在不同的企业家身上得到贯彻。段永平糅合了松下幸之助和巴菲特的经营理念和投资方法，如今，黄峥又复制了段永平。\n1、育人\n最近，拼多多突然搞出两个大新闻。一是，黄峥宣布卸任CEO，由原CTO陈磊接任。\n二是，黄峥出让部分股权，用于合伙人建设和慈善事业，他的控股比例由43.3%降低到29.4%。\n一家成立五年即成长为中国第二大电商平台，且市值已经破千亿美元的电商企业，掌舵人突然宣布退出一线业务，关注长期发展，不免令外界惊诧。\n拼多多的任命也很特别。\n作为强调流量的电商企业，它的新任CEO 却是技术出身的CTO，而非通常情况下，被认为更擅长营销和流量的高管。比如， 接替了刘强东的徐雷，就以擅长营销跟统筹著称。\n\n图：陈磊\n另一方面，黄峥宣布要完善合伙人制度，划出其个人名下3.71亿股拼多多普通股(约占公司总股数7.74%)，用来完善合伙人集体。\n黄峥说，“我希望通过这次调整，管理层可以逐步把更多的管理工作和责任交给更年轻的同事，让团队加速成长，让拼多多成为一个更好更强的持续充满创业活力的公司。”\n这个想法跟他两年前的思考几乎背道而驰。\n拼多多上市第二天召开全体员工会，现场有员工问上市之后有“期权”吗？黄峥说没有，决绝的回答同当时欢庆的气氛并不相宜。\n企业的核心并不应该只有一把手。我们提到阿里巴巴，会想到马云，但并不仅限于马云，也包括张勇、井贤栋、彭蕾等阿里巴巴合伙人。\n提到腾讯，我们会想到马化腾、刘炽平、张小龙、任宇昕等等。\n拼多多跑出了中国商业史上独一无二的速度，快到在资本介入社交电商赛道之前，就已经跑出了规模。但是，提到拼多多，除了黄峥，你还能想到谁？\n一家企业长期发展一定要培养人才梯队。显然，拼多多需要除黄峥之外，另具辨识度的名片。\n何况，黄峥这张名片，本身个性也不够强烈。\n这位创业者低调神秘，不喜站在人前，就像他的导师段永平一样。\n段永平因为持有网易股票获超50倍的收入，一战封神，被封为中国的股神。但据他自己说，购入网易股票时，会很刻意规避5%的限额，因为按照SEC的规定，持股超过5%需要申报。段永平不希望被外界关注到，他会选择将持有的网易股票捐给家族基金Enllgnt Foundation，或者是卖掉一部分股票，达到不需要向SEC申报的持股比例。\n此番，黄峥拿出个人名下10.11%的股票用于慈善和合伙人计划，被外界解读为不愿意当中国的第二富豪。\n这种做法也很黄峥，他曾说过，自己如果不是拼多多的CEO，根本不愿意接受媒体采访。\n2、本分\n“我只想要富一次。”\n这是段永平用62万美金成功竞拍巴菲特午餐之后，获得的“秘籍”，当时黄峥也在现场。\n\n图：段永平\n如果将时间的长度锁定为一生，就会知道“只富一次”是多难达到的目标。漫漫人生路程中的任何一个失误，都会将现有积累起来的基业全数打翻，重新来过。\n巴菲特讲，投资成功九十九次，一次投资失败，会将一切收益归零。\n段永平将这份理念拓展为“发现错了马上改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”。他将及时止损的逻辑发挥到极致。\n段永平曾用这个逻辑说明他当初为何离开小霸王，创办步步高。他说，如果你感觉到5年以后，这项业务是没有未来，那么现在结束，是付出代价最小的时候。\n而这些原则的底层逻辑，是段永平的价值哲学。他将此定义为“本分”。\n段永平是将经营之神松下幸之助和投资之神巴菲特的理念合二为一的人。他借鉴松下幸之助的管理经验“素直”——这个词汇通常用来形容一个人不受任何事物束缚，能够做出正确判断——创造出了“本分”的概念。\n段永平说本分就是回到事物的本原，就是做对的事情和把事情做对。他说很多人经常做一些明知是错的事情，是因为抵挡不了短期利益的诱惑。\n黄峥将本分也作为拼多多的价值观，他将拼多多的本分解释为专注于为消费者创造价值。\n任命陈磊为公司的CEO，很符合他对本分的看法。\n拼多多代表的电商匹配场景里，“货找人”，即AI智能推荐将扮演更重要的角色。而陈磊研究分布式AI，被视为将提高消费者与商品的匹配效率，实现「货找人」的 AI 电商应用场景。\n黄峥的本分还体现于拼多多上市后，他曾宣布拼多多的高管所持股份锁定三年不能卖。\n3、分配\n每一位长期价值者都会关注巴菲特。\n黄峥称赞巴菲特是一位极具天赋的，能把资本的游戏玩到极致的资本家；更是一位可爱的人，他清楚地知道钱不是目的。他一方面享受着资本游戏带给他的快乐，另一方面有智慧地把绝大多数钱捐给了比他年轻的比尔盖茨，放心地让盖茨去完成财富应有的再分配。\n\n图：黄峥与巴菲特\n黄峥关注财富积累，也关心分配。拼多多是他关注财务分配的一次实验，如果将“用户”不确定的需求确定化，它将创造新的需求，它可以成为用户同企业谈判的筹码。\n拼多多以拼的形式，汇总用户需求，去获取低价。\n同样，黄峥个人也像他的导师段永平一样，走在\"资本先积累再分配\"的道路。\n起初，他用钱解决自由。通过在Google的工作经历，他一定程度上解决了财务自由。拼多多上市后，一路高涨的市值，让这份自由更具财富价值。\n现在，他要实现对钱的自由。在拼多多内部的告知信中，他宣布划出个人名下10.11%的拼多多股份，用于慈善和拼多多的合伙人建设。\n黄峥说钱是工具，不是目的。段永平说钱很麻烦。\n他们都将自己积累的资本投入到慈善事业中。段永平捐助了浙江大学的图书馆，并宣布竺可桢基金会的每一元慈善支出，他将同比例配相关资金。黄峥选择成立“繁星慈善基金”，推动社会责任建设和科学研究。\n在他们眼中，钱只是一串数字。他们终究要用公益、慈善去实现对资本的自由。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325991551,"gmtCreate":1615855571273,"gmtModify":1704787472674,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie 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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1615457238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118536986?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 18:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Xinte Energy Says Group To Sell 152,400 Tons Of Polysilicon In Total To Qinghai Gaojing From July 2021 To December 2025","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118536986","media":"Reuters","summary":"March 11 (Reuters) - Xinte Energy Co Ltd   :   * UNDER DEAL, GROUP SHALL SELL 152,400 TONS OF POLYSI","content":"<html><body><p>March 11 (Reuters) - Xinte Energy Co Ltd   :</p><p>   * UNDER DEAL, GROUP SHALL SELL 152,400 TONS OF POLYSILICON IN TOTAL TO QINGHAI GAOJING FROM JULY 2021 TO DECEMBER 2025</p><p>   * TOTAL SUM UNDER AGREEMENT ABOUT RMB16.916 BILLION</p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Xinte Energy Says Group To Sell 152,400 Tons Of Polysilicon In Total To Qinghai Gaojing From July 2021 To December 2025</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Xinte Energy Says Group To Sell 152,400 Tons Of Polysilicon In Total To Qinghai Gaojing From July 2021 To December 2025\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 18:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>March 11 (Reuters) - Xinte Energy Co Ltd   :</p><p>   * UNDER DEAL, GROUP SHALL SELL 152,400 TONS OF POLYSILICON IN TOTAL TO QINGHAI GAOJING FROM JULY 2021 TO DECEMBER 2025</p><p>   * TOTAL SUM UNDER AGREEMENT ABOUT RMB16.916 BILLION</p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01799":"新特能源"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118536986","content_text":"March 11 (Reuters) - Xinte Energy Co Ltd   :   * UNDER DEAL, GROUP SHALL SELL 152,400 TONS OF POLYSILICON IN TOTAL TO QINGHAI GAOJING FROM JULY 2021 TO DECEMBER 2025   * TOTAL SUM UNDER AGREEMENT ABOUT RMB16.916 BILLIONSource text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}