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2021-06-18

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HSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index

2021-07-13

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2021-07-13

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China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year

2021-07-08

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Eight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year

2021-06-21

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2021-06-17

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Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable

2021-06-06

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After seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi "win" the Latin American market?

2021-06-06

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Golden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! "Super Week" gold embarks on a "thrilling journey" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again

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15:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media: Branson is disappointing in heaven, this is a waste","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106225294","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"腾讯科技讯 7月13日消息，本周日理查德·布兰森（Richard Branson）实现了儿时的梦想，乘坐太空船来到距地86公里的太空边缘。他在太空船飞行到最高点时激动地说，“致所有的孩子——我曾经也是","content":"<p>Tencent News July 13th news, this Sunday, Richard Branson realized his childhood dream and took a spacecraft to the edge of space 86 kilometers above the ground. He said excitedly as the spacecraft reached its highest point, \"To all the children-I used to be a child with a dream of looking up at the stars. Now, I'm an adult on a spacecraft, looking at our beautiful earth. We can do this, imagine, what can you do?\"</p><p>Branson's trip to space is a milestone for the fledgling space tourism industry. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is scheduled to embark on his own space journey on July 20, Elon Musk plans to send a group of civilian astronauts into orbit later this year, and the space race between billionaires looks set to boost space tourism in the near future. But the impact of this business development is not as optimistic as Branson suggests, and the dream can come at a heavy cost to ordinary people.</p><p>The first is the environmental cost of space travel. Virgin Galactic claims that the carbon emissions of one suborbital space flight per passenger are comparable to flying across the Atlantic in business class, which is about 0.2 kilograms per kilometer, that is, hands, and more than 2.45 tons per passenger flying 11,100 kilometers on a flight.</p><p>But spaceflight takes longer distances and carries far fewer passengers than transatlantic flights. Branson's total mileage to the edge of space is 11,260 kilometers, with an average carbon emission of 12 kilograms per passenger per kilometer.</p><p>While Virgin Galactic says it will offset the corresponding carbon emissions, the corresponding cost is too high for a few minutes of weightlessness experience.</p><p>Blue Origin, a space company led by Bezos, claims that its capsules have a relatively low environmental impact because its liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen engines do not emit CO2. However, the production of hydrogen fuel currently relies heavily on fossil fuels such as natural gas, and the gasification process that produces hydrogen fuel releases large amounts of carbon dioxide.</p><p>One can simply ignore the environmental impact of space travel. But it only shows that the world's richest people are putting a surprising amount of resources into an effort that does not immediately benefit the masses of society.</p><p>Right now, the high temperature weather in the western United States has broken another record, with more than 24 million people receiving high temperature warnings and more than 100 deaths. Over the weekend, 55 fires in 12 states burned more than 3,000 square kilometres of land.</p><p>Death Valley in California, USA, reported nighttime lows of 42 degrees Celsius, the highest nighttime temperature ever recorded in North America. According to scientists, the recent heatwave in the Pacific Northwest \"would not have been practically possible\" without the influence of human factors on climate change.</p><p>Further mitigation of climate impacts is the most pressing challenge facing the planet at present, and this is the issue that billionaires should be interested in, rather than crossing the edge of space that humanity has already broken through.</p><p>Although the industry often claims that the space tourism business can generate huge revenues, saying that the entire market will reach $5 billion by 2025, the truth is that the people who can fulfill this dream have more cash than most people think.</p><p>Branson is worth nearly $8 billion. He leads Virgin Group with operations in 35 countries around the world, more than 40 companies and more than 60,000 employees.</p><p>Bezos, currently worth about $211 billion, and Musk have been vying for the position of the world's richest man. If the three put their resources together, they could solve any pressing global problem.</p><p>As passionate as Branson's imagination is, the journey to space is actually uneventful compared to Yuri Gagarin's first spaceflight more than 60 years ago.</p><p>Future Virgin Galactic tickets cost between $200,000 and $250,000, and the only hurdle Branson breaks is allowing the super-rich to float in suborbital for a few minutes, allowing passengers to experience the feeling of weightlessness.</p><p>Astronauts who have flown higher than Richard Branson tend to look back at Earth with a sense of unity and a strong sense that the Earth is fragile.</p><p>In his book \"The Orbital Perspective,\" NASA astronaut Ron Garan says that when he looks back at this \"paradise,\" he can't help but think that \"nearly a billion people don't yet have clean water to drink, countless people go to bed hungry every night, and there is still social injustice, conflict, poverty on Earth.\"</p><p>If only Branson would have paid more attention to the ordinary people fighting for him to go to space.</p>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media: Branson is disappointing in heaven, this is a waste</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media: Branson is disappointing in heaven, this is a waste\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 15:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tencent News July 13th news, this Sunday, Richard Branson realized his childhood dream and took a spacecraft to the edge of space 86 kilometers above the ground. He said excitedly as the spacecraft reached its highest point, \"To all the children-I used to be a child with a dream of looking up at the stars. Now, I'm an adult on a spacecraft, looking at our beautiful earth. We can do this, imagine, what can you do?\"</p><p>Branson's trip to space is a milestone for the fledgling space tourism industry. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is scheduled to embark on his own space journey on July 20, Elon Musk plans to send a group of civilian astronauts into orbit later this year, and the space race between billionaires looks set to boost space tourism in the near future. But the impact of this business development is not as optimistic as Branson suggests, and the dream can come at a heavy cost to ordinary people.</p><p>The first is the environmental cost of space travel. Virgin Galactic claims that the carbon emissions of one suborbital space flight per passenger are comparable to flying across the Atlantic in business class, which is about 0.2 kilograms per kilometer, that is, hands, and more than 2.45 tons per passenger flying 11,100 kilometers on a flight.</p><p>But spaceflight takes longer distances and carries far fewer passengers than transatlantic flights. Branson's total mileage to the edge of space is 11,260 kilometers, with an average carbon emission of 12 kilograms per passenger per kilometer.</p><p>While Virgin Galactic says it will offset the corresponding carbon emissions, the corresponding cost is too high for a few minutes of weightlessness experience.</p><p>Blue Origin, a space company led by Bezos, claims that its capsules have a relatively low environmental impact because its liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen engines do not emit CO2. However, the production of hydrogen fuel currently relies heavily on fossil fuels such as natural gas, and the gasification process that produces hydrogen fuel releases large amounts of carbon dioxide.</p><p>One can simply ignore the environmental impact of space travel. But it only shows that the world's richest people are putting a surprising amount of resources into an effort that does not immediately benefit the masses of society.</p><p>Right now, the high temperature weather in the western United States has broken another record, with more than 24 million people receiving high temperature warnings and more than 100 deaths. Over the weekend, 55 fires in 12 states burned more than 3,000 square kilometres of land.</p><p>Death Valley in California, USA, reported nighttime lows of 42 degrees Celsius, the highest nighttime temperature ever recorded in North America. According to scientists, the recent heatwave in the Pacific Northwest \"would not have been practically possible\" without the influence of human factors on climate change.</p><p>Further mitigation of climate impacts is the most pressing challenge facing the planet at present, and this is the issue that billionaires should be interested in, rather than crossing the edge of space that humanity has already broken through.</p><p>Although the industry often claims that the space tourism business can generate huge revenues, saying that the entire market will reach $5 billion by 2025, the truth is that the people who can fulfill this dream have more cash than most people think.</p><p>Branson is worth nearly $8 billion. He leads Virgin Group with operations in 35 countries around the world, more than 40 companies and more than 60,000 employees.</p><p>Bezos, currently worth about $211 billion, and Musk have been vying for the position of the world's richest man. If the three put their resources together, they could solve any pressing global problem.</p><p>As passionate as Branson's imagination is, the journey to space is actually uneventful compared to Yuri Gagarin's first spaceflight more than 60 years ago.</p><p>Future Virgin Galactic tickets cost between $200,000 and $250,000, and the only hurdle Branson breaks is allowing the super-rich to float in suborbital for a few minutes, allowing passengers to experience the feeling of weightlessness.</p><p>Astronauts who have flown higher than Richard Branson tend to look back at Earth with a sense of unity and a strong sense that the Earth is fragile.</p><p>In his book \"The Orbital Perspective,\" NASA astronaut Ron Garan says that when he looks back at this \"paradise,\" he can't help but think that \"nearly a billion people don't yet have clean water to drink, countless people go to bed hungry every night, and there is still social injustice, conflict, poverty on Earth.\"</p><p>If only Branson would have paid more attention to the ordinary people fighting for him to go to space.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210713/20210713A03F7900.html\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1179eec49c821ababfd4a56e81724abc","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210713/20210713A03F7900.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106225294","content_text":"腾讯科技讯 7月13日消息，本周日理查德·布兰森（Richard Branson）实现了儿时的梦想，乘坐太空船来到距地86公里的太空边缘。他在太空船飞行到最高点时激动地说，“致所有的孩子——我曾经也是一个孩子，怀着仰望星空的梦想。现在，我是宇宙飞船上的成年人，遥望着我们美丽的地球。我们能做到这件事，想象一下，你们能做什么？”\n布兰森的此次太空之行对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说具有里程碑意义。亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯定于7月20日开始自己的太空之旅，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)计划在今年晚些时候将一批平民宇航员送入轨道，亿万富翁们之间展开的太空竞赛似乎会在不久将来推动太空旅游业的发展。但这种业务发展所带来的影响并不像布兰森所暗示的那样乐观，而且这种梦想可能会给普通人带来沉重的代价。\n首先是太空旅行的环境成本。维珍银河声称，每名乘客进行一次亚轨道太空飞行的碳排放量与乘坐商务舱飞越大西洋相当，大约为每公里0.2千克，也就是手，每名乘客乘坐航班飞行11100公里碳排放量超过2.45吨。\n但太空飞行比跨大西洋飞行距离还要长，搭载的乘客也少得多。布兰森前往太空边缘的总里程为11260公里，平均每名乘客每公里的碳排放量达到12千克。\n虽然维珍银河表示，会抵消相应的碳排放量，但为了几分钟的失重体验，相应代价太大。\n贝索斯领导的太空公司蓝色起源声称，由于其液氢/液氧发动机不排放二氧化碳，其太空舱对环境影响相对较低。然而，生产氢燃料目前严重依赖天然气等化石燃料，而产生氢燃料的气化过程会释放大量二氧化碳。\n人们大可以不考虑太空旅行对环境的影响。但这只是表明世界上最富有的人正把体量惊人的资源用于一项没有立即惠及社会大众的努力。\n就在当下，美国西部高温天气再破纪录，超过2400万人接收到高温预警，超过100人死亡。周末期间，12个州发生了55起大火，烧毁了3000多平方公里的土地。\n美国加州死亡谷报告称，夜间的最低温都达到了42摄氏度，这是北美有记录以来的夜间最高温度。根据科学家的说法，如果没有人为因素对气候变化的影响，太平洋西北部最近的热浪“实际上是不可能发生的”。\n进一步减轻气候影响是目前地球面临的最紧迫挑战，这才该是亿万富翁们感兴趣的问题，而不是跨过人类早已经突破的太空边缘。\n虽然业内经常宣称太空旅游业务能带来巨额收入，说2025年整个市场规模将达到50亿美元，但事实在于能兑现这种梦想的人所拥有现金超出大多数人的想象。\n布兰森身价近80亿美元，他所领导的维珍集团业务遍及全球35个国家，拥有40多家公司，麾下员工超过6万人。\n目前身价约为2110亿美元的贝索斯和马斯克一直在争夺世界首富的位置。如果这三人把他们的资源集中起来，完全可以解决掉任何紧迫的全球问题。\n尽管布兰森的想象力让人很有激情，但与60多年前尤里·加加林(Yuri Gagarin)的首次太空飞行相比，这次太空之旅实际上平淡无奇。\n未来维珍银河的船票价格在20万到25万美元之间，布兰森打破的唯一障碍是让超级富豪们可以在亚轨道漂浮几分钟，让乘客体验失重的感觉。\n那些比理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)飞得更高的宇航员回首地球时，往往会有种团结一致的感觉，以及一种地球很脆弱的强烈感觉。\n美国宇航局宇航员罗恩·葛兰(Ron Garan)在《轨道视角》(The Orbital Perspective)一书中说，当他回顾这个“天堂”时，不禁想到“近10亿人还没有干净的水喝，无数人每晚饿着肚子上床睡觉，地球上仍存在社会不公、冲突、贫困。”\n如果布兰森能多关注一下为他上太空而奋斗的普通人就好了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142586677,"gmtCreate":1626161805099,"gmtModify":1703754559477,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142586677","repostId":"1154832282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154832282","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626159588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154832282?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 14:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154832282","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5G手机出货量1.28亿部，同比增长100.9%，占同期手机出货量73.4%。","content":"<p>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.</p><p>ICT Academy: From January to June, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 174 million units, up 13.7% year-on-year, and the shipment of 5G mobile phones amounted to 128 million units, up 100.9% year-on-year, accounting for 73.4% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.</p><p>ICT Academy: In June 2021, the domestic mobile phone market continued to decline year-on-year due to factors such as early release of demand (shipments increased by 100.1% year-on-year in the first quarter), shortage of mobile chips, and the absence of Huawei, but the decline narrowed from more than 30% in April and May to 10%, and achieved a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.7%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 14:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.</p><p>ICT Academy: From January to June, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 174 million units, up 13.7% year-on-year, and the shipment of 5G mobile phones amounted to 128 million units, up 100.9% year-on-year, accounting for 73.4% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.</p><p>ICT Academy: In June 2021, the domestic mobile phone market continued to decline year-on-year due to factors such as early release of demand (shipments increased by 100.1% year-on-year in the first quarter), shortage of mobile chips, and the absence of Huawei, but the decline narrowed from more than 30% in April and May to 10%, and achieved a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.7%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3838196910a7c13db676b51f15e68246","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154832282","content_text":"中国信通院数据显示，中国6月手机出货量2566.4万部，同比下降10.4%。\n信通院：1-6月国内市场手机总体出货量累计1.74亿部，同比增长13.7%，5G手机出货量1.28亿部，同比增长100.9%，占同期手机出货量73.4%。\n信通院：2021年6月，国内手机市场继续受需求提前释放（一季度出货量同比增长100.1%）、移动芯片短缺、华为缺位等因素影响，同比延续下降趋势，但降幅由4、5月的超过30%收窄至10%，并实现环比增长11.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149870568,"gmtCreate":1625718059254,"gmtModify":1703747052496,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149870568","repostId":"1129945496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129945496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625712407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129945496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Eight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129945496","media":"东北宏观by凤来仪","summary":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和","content":"<p><b>Summary of the Report</b></p><p>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation? We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy? With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair? We believe that the manufacturing industry will still be on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contract-on-contract growth will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair? We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate? The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?</b></p><p>We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p><b>1.1. The U.S. may have a comparative advantage in pandemic control</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the global pandemic, the primary factor determining the pace of economic recovery in various countries has been the situation of pandemic control. China took the lead in controlling the pandemic, resuming work and production smoothly, and restarting its economy, making it the only major economy to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been fully opened. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain a huge comparative advantage.</p><p>For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.<b>Developed countries have inherent advantages in the spread of vaccines</b>。 European and American countries are the producers of many kinds of vaccines, and at the same time monopolize the production of most vaccines. And most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that the popularization of vaccines has indeed played a significant role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people, who are more immune to the new coronavirus, so the slowdown in the popularity of vaccines has not caused the epidemic to rebound.</p><p>From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccines in the world: mRNA vaccine, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccine; adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile for several countries with high vaccine penetration rates. Among them, the vaccines received in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccines and mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of epidemic control, at present, the average number of new cases in the United States on the 7th has steadily declined, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. Recently, the epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Delta virus, a variant of the new coronavirus, while adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The outbreak in Chile has begun to decline since June, though at a slower pace than in the United States and Canada. The effectiveness of several COVID vaccines is currently medically inconclusive, but<b>From the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.</b>We analyzed more sample countries, and most of them agreed with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.</p><p>Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have administered a larger number of adenovirus vector vaccines. So far, Japan's vaccination rate is still low, only comparable to the world average. The vaccination progress in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve complete economic opening.<b>Our basic assumption is that the third quarter is the time when the epidemic in the United States is under control and the economy is fully open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2. US job market expected to accelerate recovery</b></p><p>The non-farm payroll data in the United States in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that suppressed the yield of the US dollar and US bonds and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.</p><p>There are three main factors that lead to the U.S. employment data in April and May falling short of expectations:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits for residents have reduced the urgency of the unemployed to find a job.</b>Some surveys show that compared with before the pandemic, the proportion of U.S. residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" has been lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to stay at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican-governed states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic-dominated states will exit later. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate in red states of the Republican Party after the pandemic was significantly lower than that in blue states of the Democratic Party.</p><p><b>Second, the pandemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.</b>Although many American people don't care about COVID-19, nor do they pay attention to prevention and control. But there are also many people who are very cautious about it. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to be able to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, creating a mismatch between supply and demand. This problem can only be effectively alleviated after the epidemic is fully controlled.</p><p><b>Third, due to the lockdown of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of parents of children to care for their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.</b>Relevant surveys in the United States show that the return to work rate of parents with younger children is significantly lower than average.</p><p><b>Obviously, the root of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors, which are expected to ease in the third quarter.</b>First of all, many states in the United States have planned to end unemployment benefits early. Under the current state plan, half of the states will end unemployment benefits by July 10, which will prompt more people to go out and find jobs. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to be fully opened, and the number of people who don't look for jobs due to fear of the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the demand for parents to care for children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,<b>We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth of non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment is not over yet, and the real estate market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>We believe that the manufacturing replenishment cycle brought by the production repair in the United States has not yet ended, which will continue to stimulate the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.</b>We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and inventory replenishment cycle after the COVID-19 epidemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of year-on-year inventory in each cycle as the origin, the replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. In this cycle, the process of inventory replenishment is faster than in the past, but the trend of wholesalers and retailers replenishing inventory is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be because the resumption of work and production is incomplete. With further recovery on the production side, manufacturers' replenishment is also expected to continue.<b>However, from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the US replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. housing market is starting to show signs of cooling.</b>The rising cost of building houses has pushed up home prices sharply, and mortgage rates in the United States began to rise early this year, limiting residents' ability to buy homes. Combined with a shortage of housing inventory, home sales began to decline.</p><p><b>However, housing spending will remain resilient.</b>On the one hand, although home sales in the United States have cooled down, we don't expect to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new listings will join the market to meet the previous demand of insufficient inventory and cannot be released. On the other hand, the demand for real estate replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of home construction spending lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even much stronger than before the pandemic. But the services sector fell to a freezing point due to economic lockdowns and recovered at a slower pace.</p><p>According to the Government Lockdown Index compiled by Oxford University, lockdowns in the United States have remained high so far due to the impact of the pandemic, which is constraining the recovery of the services sector. In the third quarter, with the epidemic under control and the economy fully opened up, there is a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in service-related industries compared with before the epidemic, which has great potential.<b>At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out. At present, the income of American residents is still far higher than that before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than that before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but the lack of consumption scenarios in the service industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above reasons, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control in the United States will have a comparative advantage in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, the economic performance of the United States will still be bright.</b></p><p><b>But in the long run,</b>The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the withdrawal experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. From the above discussion, it can also be seen that the fire of manufacturing replenishment and real estate will probably end this year, so<b>This year's boom in the U.S. economy is unsustainable in the long run.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation?</b></p><p>Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, great deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to the unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, the global future will see a big inflation trend. We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p><b>2.1. Long-term inflation hub in the United States will rise</b></p><p><b>From a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation that has prevailed globally will eventually fall, we do not believe that there will be a big deflationary environment, and the future inflation hub will be higher than in the past decade</b>There are two reasons:</p><p><b>First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is matched with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode mainly based on monetary policy</b>。 Relying mainly on monetary policy stimulus will lead to a large amount of money staying in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. On the other hand, fiscal policy can effectively promote the flow of money into the real economy, thus pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is the embodiment of the effect of fiscal policy.</p><p>Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the lack of supply in the labor market and the push up of wages. The following chart shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that when<b>When wage growth is matched by inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth is significantly lagging behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016</b>。 In fact, in recent years, the wage level in the United States has been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for inflation. The CPI in the United States approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. After the epidemic, this trend has accelerated, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually, this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the reduction of labor participation rate and the changes in economic structure brought by the epidemic have also brought a long-term impact on labor supply, and the cycle of rising wages driving inflation may last for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.</b>Since 2000, a well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries is that the continuous development of global trade has caused the cheap goods of emerging economies to impact the commodity prices of developed countries, and the huge low-price supply of developing countries has made developed countries unable to stimulate inflation no matter how they stimulate demand. An obvious example is that after China's entry into WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.</p><p>But this trend has been stymied and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after the populist governments of various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries generally started the \"manufacturing return\" plan. The G7 countries have taken the lead in introducing the world's lowest tax rate policy, aimed at attracting overseas tax-avoiding companies to return to their homes. At present and in the future, a series of policy objectives will be to increase the overseas costs of multinational companies. If multinational companies come to their home countries, they will also face higher labor costs, and the long-term rise in costs will also push the long-term upward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Current macro conditions do not provide the basis for big inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries, represented by the United States, will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that of the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation mainly lies in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).</p><p>Looking back at the history of inflation in the United States over the past 100 years, we can see that there were three periods of obvious great inflation: the period of World War I, the period of World War II, and the period of oil crisis in the 70s. We believe that the basis of big inflation is mainly as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in the money supply.</b>Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by the war, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply of the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher than that of the day-to-day water release period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.</p><p><b>Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand</b>。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing is easy to fall into the liquidity trap, which can't push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Third, the self-realization of inflation expectations, which comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives</b>。 The common feature of the three big inflation periods seems to be a fault on the supply side, which is manifested by the squeeze of military production out of civilian production and the disruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the surface reason, and the deep reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The gap in supply pushed up inflation expectations. In the three major inflation periods, the central banks of all countries did not have a clear inflation target. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's continuous expectation of monetary easing. Finally, inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promoted each other and realized themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, emerging economies may also cause imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we will only discuss large economies here, not this situation.</p><p>Combined with the above three big inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation in the world at present. The government debt ratio of the United States even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries are the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfied. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates, and there is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. The characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations, which is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks all over the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which play a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer thinks that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past big inflation period. The limitation of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.</p><p><b>Based on the above points, we believe that the world does not have the foundation of big inflation at present, and it is difficult to have sustained excessive inflation.</b></p><p><b>2.3. Short-term commodity prices have a high probability of pulling back, but the extent is expected to be limited</b></p><p>After discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to the judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have probably peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thus alleviating some inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>First of all, the global M2 growth rate has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.</b>We calculated the sum of M2 of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator has a high correlation with RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year, which is leading most of the time and synchronous in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year. Empirically, there is a correction pressure on the overall commodity price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the gradual release of tightening signals from the Federal Reserve and the Chinese government's price control also helped to reduce speculation in commodities in the market</b>。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have obviously cooled down. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult to see a sustained price decline.</b></p><p><b>First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, and it is difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.</b>According to the global production index of various types of economies compiled by the Dutch Economic Analysis Bureau, the production level of emerging economies after excluding China has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend resumed at the end of the first quarter. Under the circumstances that the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets is generally backward and the epidemic prevention and control situation is poor, it is not yet known when the raw material supply gap will be made up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, although iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have recently pulled back, the price of crude oil, the mother of commodities, has been rising</b>。 The international oil price is highly correlated with the prices of coal, black, nonferrous and other commodities in China. At present, the oil price is likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of the overall inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction of commodity prices and a rise in base, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, with the risk of exceeding expectations. However, there is little pressure on CPI to rise. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge in demand; On the other hand, the price of pork dropped rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.</b></p><p><b>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy?</b></p><p>With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p><b>3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to taper bond purchases</b></p><p><b>Judging from the objective market reaction, at present, the Fed's QE has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to purchase bonds is declining.</b>The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to an all-time high, far higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of overnight reverse repurchase by the Federal Reserve means that the financial system deposits money in the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively pours \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excessive. Even to maintain the lower bound of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise IOER and ONRRP rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excess liquidity pushing short-end interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance of reducing bond purchases is also progressing steadily.</b>Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss the tapering of bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he was ready to discuss the tapering of bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing the tapering of bond purchases\". We think the Fed's current round of tapering of bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:</p><p>Phase 1: No discussion of tapering at all.</p><p>Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering.</p><p>Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 4: Announce the time plan to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 5: Officially start to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>This process fully reflects the Fed's communication with the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has stepped from the first phase to the second phase. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>Another signal revealed from the June Fed meeting is that the Fed is no longer completely ignoring inflation.</b>Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the monetary policy orientation. But at the June meeting, Powell noted that \"inflation could be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it could misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if the inflation expectation is too high, it will be prepared to adjust the policy.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed the attitude of inflation, but has made a policy response at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center of the United States will rise, and there is also the possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also urge the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.</p><p><b>3.2. The U.S. dollar will remain strong in the short term, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trend</b></p><p>As the Fed communicates fully with the market in this cycle and guides the market expectations successfully, we believe that the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual realization of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.</p><p><b>We believe that under the expectation of the Fed's tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but it will not enter a strong US dollar cycle.</b>We mentioned in the first part that the US economy should perform strongly in the third quarter, with a great comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis supporting the US dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.</p><p>However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily bring a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring a short-term strength of the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy are really improving. Although the US dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and the expectation of QE in the euro zone kept heating up and finally landed, passively pushing up the US dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major European debtor countries and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that in the United States, it is difficult to operate in reverse from 2014 to 2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the US economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the US dollar to maintain a strong momentum in the long run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the bond market, there was an interesting phenomenon after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: the short-term interest rate rose rapidly, but the long-term interest rate fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market is not skeptical about the Fed's short-term accelerated monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but it is not confident in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partly consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with the short-term interest rate of the United States, but it is not easy to remain strong in the long run.</p><p><b>However, we believe that there is still a great upward risk of long-term interest rates in the third quarter.</b>At present, an important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not bright enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate is also abnormally high, which can't dispel the market worries. At the same time, with the recent commodity price correction, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is difficult to fall soon, so the long-term yield of U.S. debt may continue to rise after a short correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?</b></p><p>Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p><b>4.1. In the second half of the year, the base increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarter</b></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2020, China took the lead in resuming production due to good control of the pandemic, and the substitution effect led to a bright export performance in the second half of the year, while the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth of exports in the second half of 2021.</b>In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then accelerated further, with year-on-year growth rates as high as 21% and 18% in November and December, respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even if the second half of the year maintains the compound growth rate of 13% in the first quarter to 2019, then the exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally drop sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.<b>Therefore, the influence of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline of export growth will be certain.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. Improvement on the global demand side to hedge the decline of substitution effects on the supply side</b></p><p><b>4.2.1. Improved demand due to global economic recovery is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, China's export performance has been very bright in the process of global economic recovery.<b>From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in the general trend and inflection point, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak under the background of improving global demand.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, although there is still epidemic disturbance and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the world as a whole, the economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will not change.</b>From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and is still expanding, reflecting that the global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30th, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index reached 3,383. The oil price and the freight rate of upstream raw materials kept hitting new highs, which also pointed to the current vigorous development of global industry to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not gone bad, and the supporting logic of exports has changed to some extent. It has been dominated by the previous supply-side production substitution and gradually transformed into the global demand-side to drive China's exports.</b>In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have driven the export growth rate most obviously since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2.2. Demand-side pull can greatly hedge the impact of weakening production substitution effects</b></p><p><b>The global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become the core export fundamentals of China.</b>First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely hedge the supply restored by overseas economies, thus weakening the substitution effect attenuation brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of global total exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, global total exports rose by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rates of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's share of global exports dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the proportion of EU exports with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the proportion of ASEAN exports as a whole has shown a slow decline.<b>Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of production substitution effect, which has limited impact, and exports will remain prosperous in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As of May 2021, among China's exports, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), medical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year, respectively, and the monthly pull rate of 28% export growth rate to China was 5.7% and 1.8%, respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by the mutant virus, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to the insufficient supply of vaccines, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is generally still below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has administered 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. With the gradual decline of China's demand for vaccines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used for supply and export. Therefore, the export of biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) will probably maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100% in the second half of the year, while the export of medical materials and pharmaceuticals will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. The disturbance of poor shipping will be greatly alleviated in the third and fourth quarters</b></p><p>Poor shipping is one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. The labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. China's container shortage caused by inefficient container turnover.<b>Looking forward to the second half of the year, the shortage of shipping and port labor caused by the pandemic will be alleviated with the vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency, so the drag of poor shipping on transportation efficiency will be obviously improved in the third and fourth quarters.</b></p><p>The labor shortage that caused poor shipping came from two aspects. On the one hand, because of the impact of the pandemic and massive fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits chose to stay home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers not being replenished in a timely manner. However, at present, the full vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the suspension of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to ease in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to the relevant data of the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on global international trade merchant ships, of which 15% come from India. After the second wave of epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port carrying Indian seafarers or ships passing through India, which increased the difficulty of seafarers' rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarers' rotation will gradually return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The restoration of port and seafarer labour will increase port capacity, thereby alleviating the problem of container accumulation at important ports. In addition, China's container manufacturers are also increasing their output. In the past five months, China's container exports have always remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers with increased capacity will gradually improve the current transportation efficiency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair?</b></p><p>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, at present, the capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, this year, both endogenous and exogenous financing of enterprises are guaranteed, and enterprises have the ability to invest additionally. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contracted growth rate will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p><b>5.1. Manufacturing is still on the upward track in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs remain relatively optimistic about the future recovery of manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.</b>The entrepreneur confidence index, which has leading significance for manufacturing investment, has risen rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, the highest level in the past 10 years. In the third and fourth quarters, with the price of commodities under control, the profit expectation is expected to further improve. Therefore, on the whole, the manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profit of industrial enterprises reached 36.4% year-on-year, and the compound year-on-year ratio was 20.2% in 2019. The high profit growth rate also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened their willingness to actively invest in production expansion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of capacity utilization rate, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Under the background of improving demand side of global economic recovery, the demand for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year exists objectively</b>。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, down from the fourth quarter of last year, but still at the highest level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new projects was 15.6%, representing a compound year-on-year growth rate of 4%, and the compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of each month in 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has steadily increased since 2020. The steady increase in investment in new projects and construction and installation also confirms to a certain extent that the market demand for further increasing investment in manufacturing industry in 2021 is objective.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of financing situation, this year, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed, and enterprises have sufficient funds for additional investment.</b>In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, the profit of manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.</p><p><b>5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communication, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing lead the way</b></p><p>In 2021, global production recovery became the main theme, and under the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, export became a key clue in China's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communication and machinery are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, in the last three months, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that export is an important clue of manufacturing investment this year.<b>In terms of exports, this year's epidemic-related medicine, computer communication related to home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are expected to perform well, so the corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair?</b></p><p>In the post-pandemic recovery path, there has been a clear difference between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and cannot resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p><b>6.1. Restrictions on consumption imposed by residents' income will be gradually eased</b></p><p><b>From the total level, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level and consumption power of Chinese residents.</b>We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year conformity ratio. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the pandemic, thus limiting the spending power. However, this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption repair,<b>We believe that residents' income will steadily increase with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not be a long-term reason for restricting consumption.</b></p><p><b>Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to spend</b>。 The ratio of household consumption spending to income dropped to its lowest point after the pandemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again, and we think that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a great impact on residents' willingness to spend. In addition, the increase of residents' preventive savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens,<b>These factors will eventually fade, but it will take a long time for the change of residents' willingness to spend, especially their willingness to save, to reverse, so the future consumption recovery will still be a relatively slow process.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2. Consumption structure will gradually balance</b></p><p>Structurally, catering and travel-related consumption remains suppressed; In particular, consumption below the quota is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail volume, the recovery of the catering industry is far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe that this reflects two problems:<b>First, the willingness of residents to go out for dining is still low due to the impact of the epidemic, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering income. Second, during the pandemic, many small businesses may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above the designated size. However, the closure of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so it will also affect the total consumption. It will take a relatively long time for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption repair will be relatively slow</b>。</p><p>The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease in residents' willingness to travel after the pandemic, oil consumption growth remained weak even under last year's ultra-low base. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be repaired quickly.<b>The consumption structure will be more balanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?</b></p><p>We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p><b>7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policy</b></p><p>At present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc all over the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused a serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Europe and America. Since current vaccines are still protective against the virus, and vaccine accessibility in European and American countries is much higher than in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, the spread of a new round of local epidemic in China in Guangdong has also been controlled. There have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.<b>In summary, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that the pandemic will break out again on a large scale in major economies. The following analysis of the monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continuous control of the pandemic. But we also do not rule out the tail risk of the mutated virus shutting down the world's major economies again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.2. The normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lead to global synergy</b></p><p><b>As mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, some emerging economies have started to move ahead of rate hike this year</b>For example, the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates twice in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian central bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised 200 basis points at a time in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea has also publicly stated that interest rates will be raised by the end of the year.</p><p><b>We believe that this round of rate hike in some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of currency normalization of the Federal Reserve in the future, and it is also in line with historical experience</b>。 Many views in the market believe that the rate hike of emerging economies is mainly responding to high inflation, but high inflation itself is the result of the combined force of supply and demand contradiction and global liquidity easing. If we consider the economy purely, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered, and it seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment of the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the range should not be too large, which is inconsistent with the policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies that have taken action at present. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2015, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the leading rate hike was about a year ahead of the Federal Reserve. Against the background that the US economy has recovered beyond expectations and the FMOC meeting of the Federal Reserve is close to the hawkish statement, this rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for the future policy shift of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3. China's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year, and it will be difficult to turn loose</b></p><p>In the second quarter, China's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically flat, and the growth rate of social financing slowly declined. Combined with the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe that<b>In the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to loosening, so as to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.</b>According to the monetary policy implementation report of the central bank in the first quarter, while managing the main gate, the next stage of monetary policy will further play the leading role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, which will still become an important focus of monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.</p><p><b>7.3.1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in place</b></p><p><b>China's monetary policy follows the principle of \"inside\" and \"outside\", but the expected change of monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve has no impact on China's policy</b>。 From the historical experience, in response to the sharp downward risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve started its rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and has not adjusted its benchmark interest rate so far. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Fed's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the regular meeting of the central bank in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer \"strengthening the coordination of international macroeconomic policies and preventing external shocks\".</p><p>The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy were also relatively large, and lessons should be learned. China's stock market and housing prices in various cities have risen in turn. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with the stock market crash, while the housing bubble made the housing prices remain high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and at the same time, it is more difficult to control the stability of housing prices in the later period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.2. Monetary Policy Targets: Insufficient Reasons for China's Turn to Loosening in the Second Half of the Year</b></p><p><b>First, from the price target of monetary policy, the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be higher, which does not mean that prices can be eased if they go down</b>。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter the downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we don't think that if the inflationary pressure is small, the monetary policy can be loosened, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not constitute the reason that the currency should be tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment targets of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth continues to recover steadily and sustainably, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and the pressure of steady growth and employment is small.</b>On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the epidemic. The results of employment protection are remarkable, and the pressure is significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year with 2019 as the base period, and the economic vitality has recovered strongly. The GDP forecast for the second quarter reached 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited, and consumption fluctuates due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged, and manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a relatively strong growth trend.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter to be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer declining, and remaining at a high level</b>。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculation, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will remain stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, the economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and the monetary policy does not need to release water to further promote macro leverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, judging from the goal of basically stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, the pressure of strong trend appreciation of RMB during the year is not great.</b>In April, there was an obvious appreciation of RMB. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance to monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.3. Current currency volume, price and credit at desirable levels</b></p><p><b>First, from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past decade, and there is basically no room for further easing.</b>As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate has dropped by 2.2% after the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past decade. At present, there is no room for downward adjustment. The market's expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates is also relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the quantity indicators of monetary policy, the recent liquidity operation is mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate remains stable.</b>In the second quarter, the central bank's total net investment in open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which were increased in response to the tightening of liquidity in June. Generally, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds were basically abundant. That is to say, reasonable and abundant liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.</p><p><b>Third, from the point of view of credit, it is the policy goal to basically match the growth rate of money supply and social financing with nominal GDP. At present, there is no need to shift to easing</b>。 This year's government work report clearly states that the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the following figure, both the quarterly growth index of nominal GDP and the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month), the proxy variable of GDP growth rate, basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year. This year's growth rate of social financing will generally drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and in the second half of the year, it may rebound slightly with the decrease of the base. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.</p><p>All in all, we analyze it from multiple angles. The reasons for China's monetary policy to shift to loosening in the second half of the year are not sufficient, so we should pay attention to the risk of this expectation in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate?</b></p><p>The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>8.1. RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not enter a depreciation cycle</b></p><p><b>Looking back on the trend of exchange rates of various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, as is the RMB exchange rate.</b>In February last year, the epidemic first broke out in China, and the RMB depreciated. In March, when the overseas epidemic broke out and caused a liquidity crisis in the US dollar, all non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the plight of the epidemic, the economy recovered rapidly, and the RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the United States in autumn and winter began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while the popularization of vaccines in Europe accelerated, and the non-agricultural data was less than expected. The US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The RMB accelerated its appreciation in late May. After June, with the regulation of the central bank and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since April, the RMB has experienced a large appreciation, which is too fast. We believe that there is adjustment pressure in the short term.</p><p><b>First, the RMB is appreciating faster than the fundamental basis.</b>Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second quarter and third quarter of this year are the stages when the comparative advantage of the US economy is more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of RMB at this stage is away from the economic fundamentals.</p><p><b>Secondly, judging from the attitude of the central bank towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive exchange rate fluctuations, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system</b>。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, which has a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately stated its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, we don't think the RMB will depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.</p><p>Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of exchange rate, but only to suppress the excessive fluctuation of RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The basis of the final turnaround of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.<b>Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it is difficult to reverse the trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and it needs to import a lot to fulfill its commitment to the United States. This objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain firm to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products by a total of US$77.7 billion, US$32 billion and US$52.4 billion in two years on the basis of 2017 (the statistics of trade in services are not easy to discuss for the time being). According to U.S. -caliber trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by 2.11 billion, 4.52 billion and 2.09 billion US dollars in 2020.<b>So if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need a total of $153.4 billion more imports in these three areas this year</b>。 If you need to meet the two-year target, you need to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even without taking into account last year's shortfall, 2021 needs to increase by 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16%, respectively, compared with 2017.<b>Commitment fulfillment rates so far this year are still low and stressful.</b></p><p>Judging from the attitude of both China and the United States, both China and the United States have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The US even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering cutting tariffs on China.<b>Therefore, from the perspective of the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to have experienced a large depreciation at this time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>8.2. There is a basis for RMB to continue to appreciate in the medium and long term</b></p><p><b>Although there is pressure of RMB adjustment in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental basis of RMB appreciation is still strong.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more robust by comparison.</b>During the pandemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooded monetary and fiscal policies, and the balance sheets of central banks expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of M2's year-on-year growth rate is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. Fiscal policy is also limited. The absence of strong stimulus means less pressure to withdraw from future policies. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have largely returned to normal this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy exit. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious reverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. The depreciation of exchange rate will cause inflation to rise, which is behind the influence of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, which is behind the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries will rise, while inflationary pressures in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheating of housing, a recovery in the services sector and rising energy prices, while<b>China's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of the yuan, which in turn supports the exchange rate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of monetary policy, different from the depreciation cycle of RMB in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\", and the two are in the same direction, instead of the situation when the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. So<b>The normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p>","source":"lsy1601172882827","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">东北宏观by凤来仪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary of the Report</b></p><p>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation? We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy? With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair? We believe that the manufacturing industry will still be on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contract-on-contract growth will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair? We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate? The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?</b></p><p>We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p><b>1.1. The U.S. may have a comparative advantage in pandemic control</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the global pandemic, the primary factor determining the pace of economic recovery in various countries has been the situation of pandemic control. China took the lead in controlling the pandemic, resuming work and production smoothly, and restarting its economy, making it the only major economy to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been fully opened. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain a huge comparative advantage.</p><p>For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.<b>Developed countries have inherent advantages in the spread of vaccines</b>。 European and American countries are the producers of many kinds of vaccines, and at the same time monopolize the production of most vaccines. And most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that the popularization of vaccines has indeed played a significant role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people, who are more immune to the new coronavirus, so the slowdown in the popularity of vaccines has not caused the epidemic to rebound.</p><p>From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccines in the world: mRNA vaccine, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccine; adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile for several countries with high vaccine penetration rates. Among them, the vaccines received in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccines and mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of epidemic control, at present, the average number of new cases in the United States on the 7th has steadily declined, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. Recently, the epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Delta virus, a variant of the new coronavirus, while adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The outbreak in Chile has begun to decline since June, though at a slower pace than in the United States and Canada. The effectiveness of several COVID vaccines is currently medically inconclusive, but<b>From the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.</b>We analyzed more sample countries, and most of them agreed with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.</p><p>Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have administered a larger number of adenovirus vector vaccines. So far, Japan's vaccination rate is still low, only comparable to the world average. The vaccination progress in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve complete economic opening.<b>Our basic assumption is that the third quarter is the time when the epidemic in the United States is under control and the economy is fully open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2. US job market expected to accelerate recovery</b></p><p>The non-farm payroll data in the United States in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that suppressed the yield of the US dollar and US bonds and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.</p><p>There are three main factors that lead to the U.S. employment data in April and May falling short of expectations:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits for residents have reduced the urgency of the unemployed to find a job.</b>Some surveys show that compared with before the pandemic, the proportion of U.S. residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" has been lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to stay at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican-governed states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic-dominated states will exit later. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate in red states of the Republican Party after the pandemic was significantly lower than that in blue states of the Democratic Party.</p><p><b>Second, the pandemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.</b>Although many American people don't care about COVID-19, nor do they pay attention to prevention and control. But there are also many people who are very cautious about it. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to be able to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, creating a mismatch between supply and demand. This problem can only be effectively alleviated after the epidemic is fully controlled.</p><p><b>Third, due to the lockdown of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of parents of children to care for their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.</b>Relevant surveys in the United States show that the return to work rate of parents with younger children is significantly lower than average.</p><p><b>Obviously, the root of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors, which are expected to ease in the third quarter.</b>First of all, many states in the United States have planned to end unemployment benefits early. Under the current state plan, half of the states will end unemployment benefits by July 10, which will prompt more people to go out and find jobs. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to be fully opened, and the number of people who don't look for jobs due to fear of the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the demand for parents to care for children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,<b>We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth of non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment is not over yet, and the real estate market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>We believe that the manufacturing replenishment cycle brought by the production repair in the United States has not yet ended, which will continue to stimulate the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.</b>We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and inventory replenishment cycle after the COVID-19 epidemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of year-on-year inventory in each cycle as the origin, the replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. In this cycle, the process of inventory replenishment is faster than in the past, but the trend of wholesalers and retailers replenishing inventory is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be because the resumption of work and production is incomplete. With further recovery on the production side, manufacturers' replenishment is also expected to continue.<b>However, from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the US replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. housing market is starting to show signs of cooling.</b>The rising cost of building houses has pushed up home prices sharply, and mortgage rates in the United States began to rise early this year, limiting residents' ability to buy homes. Combined with a shortage of housing inventory, home sales began to decline.</p><p><b>However, housing spending will remain resilient.</b>On the one hand, although home sales in the United States have cooled down, we don't expect to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new listings will join the market to meet the previous demand of insufficient inventory and cannot be released. On the other hand, the demand for real estate replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of home construction spending lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even much stronger than before the pandemic. But the services sector fell to a freezing point due to economic lockdowns and recovered at a slower pace.</p><p>According to the Government Lockdown Index compiled by Oxford University, lockdowns in the United States have remained high so far due to the impact of the pandemic, which is constraining the recovery of the services sector. In the third quarter, with the epidemic under control and the economy fully opened up, there is a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in service-related industries compared with before the epidemic, which has great potential.<b>At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out. At present, the income of American residents is still far higher than that before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than that before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but the lack of consumption scenarios in the service industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above reasons, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control in the United States will have a comparative advantage in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, the economic performance of the United States will still be bright.</b></p><p><b>But in the long run,</b>The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the withdrawal experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. From the above discussion, it can also be seen that the fire of manufacturing replenishment and real estate will probably end this year, so<b>This year's boom in the U.S. economy is unsustainable in the long run.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation?</b></p><p>Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, great deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to the unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, the global future will see a big inflation trend. We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p><b>2.1. Long-term inflation hub in the United States will rise</b></p><p><b>From a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation that has prevailed globally will eventually fall, we do not believe that there will be a big deflationary environment, and the future inflation hub will be higher than in the past decade</b>There are two reasons:</p><p><b>First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is matched with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode mainly based on monetary policy</b>。 Relying mainly on monetary policy stimulus will lead to a large amount of money staying in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. On the other hand, fiscal policy can effectively promote the flow of money into the real economy, thus pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is the embodiment of the effect of fiscal policy.</p><p>Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the lack of supply in the labor market and the push up of wages. The following chart shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that when<b>When wage growth is matched by inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth is significantly lagging behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016</b>。 In fact, in recent years, the wage level in the United States has been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for inflation. The CPI in the United States approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. After the epidemic, this trend has accelerated, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually, this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the reduction of labor participation rate and the changes in economic structure brought by the epidemic have also brought a long-term impact on labor supply, and the cycle of rising wages driving inflation may last for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.</b>Since 2000, a well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries is that the continuous development of global trade has caused the cheap goods of emerging economies to impact the commodity prices of developed countries, and the huge low-price supply of developing countries has made developed countries unable to stimulate inflation no matter how they stimulate demand. An obvious example is that after China's entry into WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.</p><p>But this trend has been stymied and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after the populist governments of various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries generally started the \"manufacturing return\" plan. The G7 countries have taken the lead in introducing the world's lowest tax rate policy, aimed at attracting overseas tax-avoiding companies to return to their homes. At present and in the future, a series of policy objectives will be to increase the overseas costs of multinational companies. If multinational companies come to their home countries, they will also face higher labor costs, and the long-term rise in costs will also push the long-term upward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Current macro conditions do not provide the basis for big inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries, represented by the United States, will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that of the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation mainly lies in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).</p><p>Looking back at the history of inflation in the United States over the past 100 years, we can see that there were three periods of obvious great inflation: the period of World War I, the period of World War II, and the period of oil crisis in the 70s. We believe that the basis of big inflation is mainly as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in the money supply.</b>Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by the war, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply of the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher than that of the day-to-day water release period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.</p><p><b>Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand</b>。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing is easy to fall into the liquidity trap, which can't push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Third, the self-realization of inflation expectations, which comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives</b>。 The common feature of the three big inflation periods seems to be a fault on the supply side, which is manifested by the squeeze of military production out of civilian production and the disruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the surface reason, and the deep reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The gap in supply pushed up inflation expectations. In the three major inflation periods, the central banks of all countries did not have a clear inflation target. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's continuous expectation of monetary easing. Finally, inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promoted each other and realized themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, emerging economies may also cause imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we will only discuss large economies here, not this situation.</p><p>Combined with the above three big inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation in the world at present. The government debt ratio of the United States even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries are the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfied. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates, and there is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. The characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations, which is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks all over the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which play a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer thinks that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past big inflation period. The limitation of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.</p><p><b>Based on the above points, we believe that the world does not have the foundation of big inflation at present, and it is difficult to have sustained excessive inflation.</b></p><p><b>2.3. Short-term commodity prices have a high probability of pulling back, but the extent is expected to be limited</b></p><p>After discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to the judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have probably peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thus alleviating some inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>First of all, the global M2 growth rate has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.</b>We calculated the sum of M2 of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator has a high correlation with RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year, which is leading most of the time and synchronous in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year. Empirically, there is a correction pressure on the overall commodity price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the gradual release of tightening signals from the Federal Reserve and the Chinese government's price control also helped to reduce speculation in commodities in the market</b>。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have obviously cooled down. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult to see a sustained price decline.</b></p><p><b>First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, and it is difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.</b>According to the global production index of various types of economies compiled by the Dutch Economic Analysis Bureau, the production level of emerging economies after excluding China has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend resumed at the end of the first quarter. Under the circumstances that the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets is generally backward and the epidemic prevention and control situation is poor, it is not yet known when the raw material supply gap will be made up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, although iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have recently pulled back, the price of crude oil, the mother of commodities, has been rising</b>。 The international oil price is highly correlated with the prices of coal, black, nonferrous and other commodities in China. At present, the oil price is likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of the overall inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction of commodity prices and a rise in base, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, with the risk of exceeding expectations. However, there is little pressure on CPI to rise. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge in demand; On the other hand, the price of pork dropped rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.</b></p><p><b>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy?</b></p><p>With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p><b>3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to taper bond purchases</b></p><p><b>Judging from the objective market reaction, at present, the Fed's QE has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to purchase bonds is declining.</b>The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to an all-time high, far higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of overnight reverse repurchase by the Federal Reserve means that the financial system deposits money in the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively pours \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excessive. Even to maintain the lower bound of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise IOER and ONRRP rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excess liquidity pushing short-end interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance of reducing bond purchases is also progressing steadily.</b>Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss the tapering of bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he was ready to discuss the tapering of bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing the tapering of bond purchases\". We think the Fed's current round of tapering of bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:</p><p>Phase 1: No discussion of tapering at all.</p><p>Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering.</p><p>Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 4: Announce the time plan to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 5: Officially start to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>This process fully reflects the Fed's communication with the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has stepped from the first phase to the second phase. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>Another signal revealed from the June Fed meeting is that the Fed is no longer completely ignoring inflation.</b>Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the monetary policy orientation. But at the June meeting, Powell noted that \"inflation could be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it could misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if the inflation expectation is too high, it will be prepared to adjust the policy.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed the attitude of inflation, but has made a policy response at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center of the United States will rise, and there is also the possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also urge the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.</p><p><b>3.2. The U.S. dollar will remain strong in the short term, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trend</b></p><p>As the Fed communicates fully with the market in this cycle and guides the market expectations successfully, we believe that the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual realization of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.</p><p><b>We believe that under the expectation of the Fed's tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but it will not enter a strong US dollar cycle.</b>We mentioned in the first part that the US economy should perform strongly in the third quarter, with a great comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis supporting the US dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.</p><p>However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily bring a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring a short-term strength of the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy are really improving. Although the US dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and the expectation of QE in the euro zone kept heating up and finally landed, passively pushing up the US dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major European debtor countries and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that in the United States, it is difficult to operate in reverse from 2014 to 2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the US economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the US dollar to maintain a strong momentum in the long run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the bond market, there was an interesting phenomenon after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: the short-term interest rate rose rapidly, but the long-term interest rate fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market is not skeptical about the Fed's short-term accelerated monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but it is not confident in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partly consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with the short-term interest rate of the United States, but it is not easy to remain strong in the long run.</p><p><b>However, we believe that there is still a great upward risk of long-term interest rates in the third quarter.</b>At present, an important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not bright enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate is also abnormally high, which can't dispel the market worries. At the same time, with the recent commodity price correction, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is difficult to fall soon, so the long-term yield of U.S. debt may continue to rise after a short correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?</b></p><p>Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p><b>4.1. In the second half of the year, the base increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarter</b></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2020, China took the lead in resuming production due to good control of the pandemic, and the substitution effect led to a bright export performance in the second half of the year, while the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth of exports in the second half of 2021.</b>In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then accelerated further, with year-on-year growth rates as high as 21% and 18% in November and December, respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even if the second half of the year maintains the compound growth rate of 13% in the first quarter to 2019, then the exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally drop sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.<b>Therefore, the influence of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline of export growth will be certain.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. Improvement on the global demand side to hedge the decline of substitution effects on the supply side</b></p><p><b>4.2.1. Improved demand due to global economic recovery is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, China's export performance has been very bright in the process of global economic recovery.<b>From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in the general trend and inflection point, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak under the background of improving global demand.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, although there is still epidemic disturbance and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the world as a whole, the economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will not change.</b>From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and is still expanding, reflecting that the global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30th, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index reached 3,383. The oil price and the freight rate of upstream raw materials kept hitting new highs, which also pointed to the current vigorous development of global industry to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not gone bad, and the supporting logic of exports has changed to some extent. It has been dominated by the previous supply-side production substitution and gradually transformed into the global demand-side to drive China's exports.</b>In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have driven the export growth rate most obviously since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2.2. Demand-side pull can greatly hedge the impact of weakening production substitution effects</b></p><p><b>The global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become the core export fundamentals of China.</b>First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely hedge the supply restored by overseas economies, thus weakening the substitution effect attenuation brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of global total exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, global total exports rose by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rates of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's share of global exports dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the proportion of EU exports with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the proportion of ASEAN exports as a whole has shown a slow decline.<b>Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of production substitution effect, which has limited impact, and exports will remain prosperous in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As of May 2021, among China's exports, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), medical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year, respectively, and the monthly pull rate of 28% export growth rate to China was 5.7% and 1.8%, respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by the mutant virus, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to the insufficient supply of vaccines, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is generally still below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has administered 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. With the gradual decline of China's demand for vaccines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used for supply and export. Therefore, the export of biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) will probably maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100% in the second half of the year, while the export of medical materials and pharmaceuticals will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. The disturbance of poor shipping will be greatly alleviated in the third and fourth quarters</b></p><p>Poor shipping is one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. The labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. China's container shortage caused by inefficient container turnover.<b>Looking forward to the second half of the year, the shortage of shipping and port labor caused by the pandemic will be alleviated with the vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency, so the drag of poor shipping on transportation efficiency will be obviously improved in the third and fourth quarters.</b></p><p>The labor shortage that caused poor shipping came from two aspects. On the one hand, because of the impact of the pandemic and massive fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits chose to stay home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers not being replenished in a timely manner. However, at present, the full vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the suspension of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to ease in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to the relevant data of the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on global international trade merchant ships, of which 15% come from India. After the second wave of epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port carrying Indian seafarers or ships passing through India, which increased the difficulty of seafarers' rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarers' rotation will gradually return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The restoration of port and seafarer labour will increase port capacity, thereby alleviating the problem of container accumulation at important ports. In addition, China's container manufacturers are also increasing their output. In the past five months, China's container exports have always remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers with increased capacity will gradually improve the current transportation efficiency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair?</b></p><p>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, at present, the capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, this year, both endogenous and exogenous financing of enterprises are guaranteed, and enterprises have the ability to invest additionally. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contracted growth rate will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p><b>5.1. Manufacturing is still on the upward track in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs remain relatively optimistic about the future recovery of manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.</b>The entrepreneur confidence index, which has leading significance for manufacturing investment, has risen rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, the highest level in the past 10 years. In the third and fourth quarters, with the price of commodities under control, the profit expectation is expected to further improve. Therefore, on the whole, the manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profit of industrial enterprises reached 36.4% year-on-year, and the compound year-on-year ratio was 20.2% in 2019. The high profit growth rate also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened their willingness to actively invest in production expansion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of capacity utilization rate, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Under the background of improving demand side of global economic recovery, the demand for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year exists objectively</b>。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, down from the fourth quarter of last year, but still at the highest level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new projects was 15.6%, representing a compound year-on-year growth rate of 4%, and the compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of each month in 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has steadily increased since 2020. The steady increase in investment in new projects and construction and installation also confirms to a certain extent that the market demand for further increasing investment in manufacturing industry in 2021 is objective.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of financing situation, this year, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed, and enterprises have sufficient funds for additional investment.</b>In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, the profit of manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.</p><p><b>5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communication, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing lead the way</b></p><p>In 2021, global production recovery became the main theme, and under the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, export became a key clue in China's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communication and machinery are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, in the last three months, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that export is an important clue of manufacturing investment this year.<b>In terms of exports, this year's epidemic-related medicine, computer communication related to home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are expected to perform well, so the corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair?</b></p><p>In the post-pandemic recovery path, there has been a clear difference between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and cannot resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p><b>6.1. Restrictions on consumption imposed by residents' income will be gradually eased</b></p><p><b>From the total level, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level and consumption power of Chinese residents.</b>We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year conformity ratio. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the pandemic, thus limiting the spending power. However, this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption repair,<b>We believe that residents' income will steadily increase with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not be a long-term reason for restricting consumption.</b></p><p><b>Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to spend</b>。 The ratio of household consumption spending to income dropped to its lowest point after the pandemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again, and we think that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a great impact on residents' willingness to spend. In addition, the increase of residents' preventive savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens,<b>These factors will eventually fade, but it will take a long time for the change of residents' willingness to spend, especially their willingness to save, to reverse, so the future consumption recovery will still be a relatively slow process.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2. Consumption structure will gradually balance</b></p><p>Structurally, catering and travel-related consumption remains suppressed; In particular, consumption below the quota is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail volume, the recovery of the catering industry is far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe that this reflects two problems:<b>First, the willingness of residents to go out for dining is still low due to the impact of the epidemic, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering income. Second, during the pandemic, many small businesses may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above the designated size. However, the closure of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so it will also affect the total consumption. It will take a relatively long time for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption repair will be relatively slow</b>。</p><p>The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease in residents' willingness to travel after the pandemic, oil consumption growth remained weak even under last year's ultra-low base. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be repaired quickly.<b>The consumption structure will be more balanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?</b></p><p>We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p><b>7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policy</b></p><p>At present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc all over the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused a serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Europe and America. Since current vaccines are still protective against the virus, and vaccine accessibility in European and American countries is much higher than in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, the spread of a new round of local epidemic in China in Guangdong has also been controlled. There have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.<b>In summary, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that the pandemic will break out again on a large scale in major economies. The following analysis of the monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continuous control of the pandemic. But we also do not rule out the tail risk of the mutated virus shutting down the world's major economies again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.2. The normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lead to global synergy</b></p><p><b>As mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, some emerging economies have started to move ahead of rate hike this year</b>For example, the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates twice in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian central bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised 200 basis points at a time in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea has also publicly stated that interest rates will be raised by the end of the year.</p><p><b>We believe that this round of rate hike in some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of currency normalization of the Federal Reserve in the future, and it is also in line with historical experience</b>。 Many views in the market believe that the rate hike of emerging economies is mainly responding to high inflation, but high inflation itself is the result of the combined force of supply and demand contradiction and global liquidity easing. If we consider the economy purely, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered, and it seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment of the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the range should not be too large, which is inconsistent with the policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies that have taken action at present. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2015, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the leading rate hike was about a year ahead of the Federal Reserve. Against the background that the US economy has recovered beyond expectations and the FMOC meeting of the Federal Reserve is close to the hawkish statement, this rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for the future policy shift of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3. China's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year, and it will be difficult to turn loose</b></p><p>In the second quarter, China's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically flat, and the growth rate of social financing slowly declined. Combined with the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe that<b>In the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to loosening, so as to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.</b>According to the monetary policy implementation report of the central bank in the first quarter, while managing the main gate, the next stage of monetary policy will further play the leading role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, which will still become an important focus of monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.</p><p><b>7.3.1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in place</b></p><p><b>China's monetary policy follows the principle of \"inside\" and \"outside\", but the expected change of monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve has no impact on China's policy</b>。 From the historical experience, in response to the sharp downward risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve started its rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and has not adjusted its benchmark interest rate so far. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Fed's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the regular meeting of the central bank in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer \"strengthening the coordination of international macroeconomic policies and preventing external shocks\".</p><p>The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy were also relatively large, and lessons should be learned. China's stock market and housing prices in various cities have risen in turn. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with the stock market crash, while the housing bubble made the housing prices remain high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and at the same time, it is more difficult to control the stability of housing prices in the later period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.2. Monetary Policy Targets: Insufficient Reasons for China's Turn to Loosening in the Second Half of the Year</b></p><p><b>First, from the price target of monetary policy, the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be higher, which does not mean that prices can be eased if they go down</b>。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter the downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we don't think that if the inflationary pressure is small, the monetary policy can be loosened, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not constitute the reason that the currency should be tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment targets of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth continues to recover steadily and sustainably, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and the pressure of steady growth and employment is small.</b>On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the epidemic. The results of employment protection are remarkable, and the pressure is significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year with 2019 as the base period, and the economic vitality has recovered strongly. The GDP forecast for the second quarter reached 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited, and consumption fluctuates due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged, and manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a relatively strong growth trend.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter to be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer declining, and remaining at a high level</b>。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculation, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will remain stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, the economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and the monetary policy does not need to release water to further promote macro leverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, judging from the goal of basically stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, the pressure of strong trend appreciation of RMB during the year is not great.</b>In April, there was an obvious appreciation of RMB. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance to monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.3. Current currency volume, price and credit at desirable levels</b></p><p><b>First, from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past decade, and there is basically no room for further easing.</b>As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate has dropped by 2.2% after the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past decade. At present, there is no room for downward adjustment. The market's expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates is also relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the quantity indicators of monetary policy, the recent liquidity operation is mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate remains stable.</b>In the second quarter, the central bank's total net investment in open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which were increased in response to the tightening of liquidity in June. Generally, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds were basically abundant. That is to say, reasonable and abundant liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.</p><p><b>Third, from the point of view of credit, it is the policy goal to basically match the growth rate of money supply and social financing with nominal GDP. At present, there is no need to shift to easing</b>。 This year's government work report clearly states that the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the following figure, both the quarterly growth index of nominal GDP and the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month), the proxy variable of GDP growth rate, basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year. This year's growth rate of social financing will generally drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and in the second half of the year, it may rebound slightly with the decrease of the base. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.</p><p>All in all, we analyze it from multiple angles. The reasons for China's monetary policy to shift to loosening in the second half of the year are not sufficient, so we should pay attention to the risk of this expectation in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate?</b></p><p>The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>8.1. RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not enter a depreciation cycle</b></p><p><b>Looking back on the trend of exchange rates of various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, as is the RMB exchange rate.</b>In February last year, the epidemic first broke out in China, and the RMB depreciated. In March, when the overseas epidemic broke out and caused a liquidity crisis in the US dollar, all non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the plight of the epidemic, the economy recovered rapidly, and the RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the United States in autumn and winter began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while the popularization of vaccines in Europe accelerated, and the non-agricultural data was less than expected. The US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The RMB accelerated its appreciation in late May. After June, with the regulation of the central bank and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since April, the RMB has experienced a large appreciation, which is too fast. We believe that there is adjustment pressure in the short term.</p><p><b>First, the RMB is appreciating faster than the fundamental basis.</b>Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second quarter and third quarter of this year are the stages when the comparative advantage of the US economy is more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of RMB at this stage is away from the economic fundamentals.</p><p><b>Secondly, judging from the attitude of the central bank towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive exchange rate fluctuations, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system</b>。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, which has a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately stated its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, we don't think the RMB will depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.</p><p>Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of exchange rate, but only to suppress the excessive fluctuation of RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The basis of the final turnaround of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.<b>Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it is difficult to reverse the trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and it needs to import a lot to fulfill its commitment to the United States. This objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain firm to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products by a total of US$77.7 billion, US$32 billion and US$52.4 billion in two years on the basis of 2017 (the statistics of trade in services are not easy to discuss for the time being). According to U.S. -caliber trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by 2.11 billion, 4.52 billion and 2.09 billion US dollars in 2020.<b>So if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need a total of $153.4 billion more imports in these three areas this year</b>。 If you need to meet the two-year target, you need to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even without taking into account last year's shortfall, 2021 needs to increase by 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16%, respectively, compared with 2017.<b>Commitment fulfillment rates so far this year are still low and stressful.</b></p><p>Judging from the attitude of both China and the United States, both China and the United States have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The US even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering cutting tariffs on China.<b>Therefore, from the perspective of the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to have experienced a large depreciation at this time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>8.2. There is a basis for RMB to continue to appreciate in the medium and long term</b></p><p><b>Although there is pressure of RMB adjustment in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental basis of RMB appreciation is still strong.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more robust by comparison.</b>During the pandemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooded monetary and fiscal policies, and the balance sheets of central banks expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of M2's year-on-year growth rate is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. Fiscal policy is also limited. The absence of strong stimulus means less pressure to withdraw from future policies. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have largely returned to normal this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy exit. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious reverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. The depreciation of exchange rate will cause inflation to rise, which is behind the influence of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, which is behind the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries will rise, while inflationary pressures in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheating of housing, a recovery in the services sector and rising energy prices, while<b>China's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of the yuan, which in turn supports the exchange rate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of monetary policy, different from the depreciation cycle of RMB in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\", and the two are in the same direction, instead of the situation when the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. So<b>The normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A\">东北宏观by凤来仪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3818aa8c04676880c8fa36fc370f4054","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129945496","content_text":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样？随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？我们认为2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。\n\n\n报告正文\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？\n我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n1.1.美国在疫情控制上可能具有相对优势\n自全球疫情爆发以来，决定各国经济复苏速度的首要因素就是疫情控制情况。中国率先控制住疫情，复工复产顺利推进，经济重启，成为了2020年主要经济体中唯一实现正增长的国家。而其它国家疫情均出现了大规模的反弹，经济始终无法全面开放。能够在疫情防控上取得领先的国家毫无疑问将获得巨大的相对优势。\n对于海外各国而言，疫苗普及率和疫苗的有效性是能否成功防控疫情的关键。在疫苗的普及方面，发达国家具备先天的优势。欧美国家是很多种疫苗的生产国，同时垄断了大部分疫苗的产量。而新兴经济体大多难以在短时间内获得疫苗。所以近期发达国家疫情防控形势普遍好于发展中国家。目前美国疫苗普及速度虽然放缓，但是新增病例已经持续下降，反映出疫苗普及对疫情防控确实起到了明显作用。而且美国拒绝接种的人群大多为年轻人，对新冠病毒的免疫能力更强，所以疫苗普及速度的放缓并未造成疫情反弹。\n从疫苗有效性方面来看，目前全球主要的新冠疫苗分三种：mRNA疫苗，以辉瑞-Moderna疫苗为代表；腺病毒载体疫苗，以牛津-阿斯利康疫苗为代表；灭活疫苗，以中国疫苗为代表。我们选取了美国以及加拿大、英国、智利几个疫苗普及率均很高的国家分析。其中，美国和加拿大接种的疫苗以mRNA疫苗为主；英国接种的疫苗的疫苗以腺病毒载体疫苗和mRNA疫苗为主；智利接种的疫苗以灭活疫苗为主。\n从疫情控制情况来看，目前美国7日平均新增病例稳步下降，加拿大疫情也得到了较好的控制。而英国近期疫情出现了明显反弹。有医学专家表示英国新增病例中大部分为新冠病毒的变种Delta病毒，而腺病毒载体疫苗对Delta病毒的防控效果不佳。智利疫情自6月以来开始下降，不过速度相对美国和加拿大较慢。目前医学上对几种新冠疫苗的有效性尚无定论，但从数据上看，短期内似乎mRNA疫苗在疫情防控上更具优势。我们分析了更多的样本国家，大多符合这一结论，在此不一一列举。\n美国疫苗接种以mRNA疫苗为主。相对应的，欧洲国家接种了较大量的腺病毒载体疫苗。日本到目前为止仍然接种率偏低，仅与世界平均水平相当。而新兴市场疫苗接种进度普遍落后。所以在今年下半年美国在疫情防控方面可能具有一定相对优势，有望先行控制住疫情并实现经济的完全开放。我们的基本假设是三季度是美国疫情得到控制、经济完全开放的时点。这是美国经济能够继续强劲复苏的必要条件。\n\n\n1.2.美国就业市场有望加快复苏\n美国4月和5月的非农就业数据不及预期，这也是此前压制美元、美债收益率和阻碍美联储货币政策正常化的重要因素。但我们认为美国就业放缓是暂时的，三季度美国就业市场有望加速复苏。\n导致4、5月份美国就业数据不及预期的主要有以下三个因素：\n第一，美国政府对居民的现金补贴和失业金补贴降低了失业者找工作的急切程度。一些调查结果显示，相对于疫情之前，近期美国居民找工作是出于“经济压力”的比例更低了。很多失业者更愿意躺在家里领取财政补贴。共和党执政的州普遍计划更早结束失业救济金，民主党主导的州则将更晚退出。而相应的，疫情后共和党的红州失业率也明显低于民主党的蓝州。\n第二，疫情仍然影响着部分人外出工作的意愿。虽然美国民众中很多人并不在乎新冠病毒、也不注意防控。但也有很多人对此十分谨慎。美国求职网站ZipRecruiter的数据显示，有半数以上的求职者希望能够远程工作，然而只有10%的雇主会提供远程的职位，造成了供需的错配。只有疫情充分得到控制之后这个问题才能有效缓解。\n第三，由于众多学校、教育机构在疫情期间的封锁，儿童的父母居家照顾孩子的需求提升，难以外出工作。美国有相关调查表明，有低龄儿童的父母的复工率明显低于平均水平。\n很明显，以上三个原因的根本都在于疫情及相关影响，且都是短期因素，这些因素有望在三季度缓解。首先，目前美国已经有很多州计划提早结束失业救济金。按照各州目前计划，在7月10日之前将有半数州结束失业金，这将促使更多人外出寻找工作机会。其次，我们认为三季度美国疫情将持续缓解，经济有望全面开放，因担忧疫情而不去找工作的人数也将大大减少。再次，三季度随着各学校和教育机构重新开启，父母居家照顾儿童的需求也将降低，促使这部分群体外出工作。所以，我们认为三季度美国就业市场将有明显反弹，6月非农就业人数的超预期增长已经开始反映这一趋势。\n\n1.3.美国制造业补库存尚未结束，房地产市场仍存韧性\n我们认为美国生产修复带来的制造业补库存周期尚未结束，将对三季度经济有持续拉动，甚至可能持续至年底。我们对比了2000年以来美国典型的四次补库存周期的经验，分别为互联网泡沫后的补库存、金融危机后的补库存，2016年全球共振补库存及本次新冠疫情后的补库存周期。如下图所示，以各周期中库存同比的最低点为原点，补库存阶段通常会持续12个月以上，最长可达24个月左右。本轮周期中补库存的进程快于以往，但批发商和零售商补库存的趋势显然还没有结束，制造商补库存虽然冲高回落，但我们认为可能因为复工复产不完全。随着生产端的进一步复苏，制造商补库存也有望持续。不过从趋势对比来看，美国补库存周期很难在明年保持强劲势头。\n\n\n美国房地产市场开始出现降温迹象。不断上升的建房成本大幅推升了房屋价格，同时美国抵押贷款利率也在今年年初开始回升，这限制了居民的购房能力，加之房屋库存的短缺，使得房屋销售量开始下降。\n不过房屋建造支出仍将保持一定韧性。一方面，美国房屋销售虽然降温，但我们预计不会快速回落，因为利率绝对水平仍然不高，有新房源加入市场后会满足此前库存不足而无法释放的需求。另一方面，美国房地产补库存的需求仍在，房屋建造支出的周期滞后于销售周期，所以对经济的拉动仍然存在。\n\n\n1.4.服务业将随着经济开放而强劲复苏\n疫情爆发以来，强力的财政刺激政策带来了商品消费的V型反弹，甚至远强于疫情之前。但是服务业则由于经济的封锁而降至冰点，之后复苏的速度也较慢。\n根据牛津大学编制的政府封锁指数，由于疫情的影响，美国至今封锁程度仍然较高，这制约着服务业的复苏。而三季度随着疫情得到控制、经济完全开放，服务业恢复的空间很大。从就业情况来看，目前服务业相关行业就业人数较疫情之前仍有很大缺口，潜力很大。同时，我们认为服务业消费和商品消费有望相互促进而非挤出。目前美国居民收入仍然远远高于疫情之前，储蓄水平也大幅高于疫情之前，所以居民消费能力有充分保障。制约消费的并非预算约束，而是缺乏服务业的消费场景。\n\n\n综合以上几点原因，我们认为三季度美国疫情防控将具备相对优势，就业市场有望加速复苏，制造业、房地产业存在韧性且服务业将强劲复苏。所以下半年尤其是三季度美国经济表现仍将亮眼。\n不过从长期来看，美国本轮经济强势复苏的源头是远超其它国家的财政和货币政策刺激。未来美国难有新的纾困法案，而美联储货币政策也在正常化的途中，明年之后美国将面临政策退出带来的阵痛。从金融危机之后美国数轮QE的退出经验来看，货币政策的退出都会带来经济下行的压力。从上文的论述中也可以看出，制造业补库存和房地产的火热在今年大概率结束，所以美国经济今年的繁荣在长期难以持续。\n\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？\n通胀是今年全球宏观经济的核心关注点之一。而市场对通胀的看法较为两极化，一种观点认为由于贫富差距的扩大和全球化贸易重启，大通缩将为长期的趋势；另一种观点认为由于史无前例的货币放水和供给不足，全球未来将出现大通胀趋势。我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n2.1.美国长期通胀中枢会抬升\n从长期角度来看，虽然近期全球普遍存在的高通胀会最终回落，但我们并不认为会出现大通缩环境，未来通胀中枢将会高于过去十年，有以下两点理由：\n第一，本轮中巨量的财政刺激与货币刺激相配合，与以往危机后以货币政策为主的刺激方式不同。主要依靠货币政策刺激会导致大量货币滞留在金融体系之中，无法流入实体经济内，其结果是金融资产价格大幅上涨。而财政政策则能有效推动货币流入实体经济，从而推升实体通胀。今年全球大超预期的通胀就是财政政策效果的体现。\n“直升机撒钱”的另一个直接结果是造成了劳动力市场供给的不足，同时推升了工资水平。下图中展示了美国商品生产部门平均时薪和美国CPI的关系，可以看出当薪资水平增长与通胀相匹配时，通胀就存在持续上行的动力，比如20世纪70年代以及2001-2008年。而当薪资增长明显落后于通胀之时，通胀上升也会乏力，比如1980-2000年及2011-2016年。事实上近年来美国近两年工资水平一直在持续上升，这是推动通胀上行的重要动力，美国CPI同比在2017年和2018年就几度逼近3%。而疫情后这一趋势出现加速，薪资与CPI之比达到20世纪70年代的水平，这也将推动通胀继续加速上涨。通常这一趋势都不是短期之内可以终结的，虽然目前的劳动力供给不足很大程度上是由于短期因素，但不可否认劳动参与率的降低和疫情带来的经济结构变化也给劳动力供给带来了长期的影响，薪资上升推动通胀上涨的循环可能还会持续较长时间。\n\n第二，去全球化和发达国家的制造业回流政策会带来长期的通胀压力。2000年以来发达国家低通胀的一个众所周知的原因，就是全球化贸易的不断发展导致新兴经济体的廉价商品冲击了发达国家的商品价格，发展中国家巨量的低价供给使得发达国家无论如何刺激需求也无法拉动通胀。很明显的例子就是中国加入WTO之后，美国商品CPI迅速跳水，体现出全球化贸易带来的低通胀效应。\n但这一趋势已经受到了阻碍，甚至开始扭转。一是全球化贸易已经进入瓶颈，近年来全球贸易开放指数出现震荡下降，尤其是各国民粹主义政府上台之后，全球化遭遇的挑战更大，新兴市场的廉价商品压低发达国家通胀的趋势受阻，中美贸易摩擦就是典型的例子。二是发达国家普遍开始“制造业回流”计划。G7国家率先推行全球最低税率政策，意在吸引海外避税的公司回归本国。当前和未来的一系列政策目标都会是增加跨国公司在海外的成本，而跨国公司如果会到本国，也将面临更高的劳动力成本，成本的长期上升也会推动通胀的长期上行。\n\n2.2.当前宏观条件不具备大通胀的基础\n如上文所述，我们认为以美国为代表的发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升。那么是否会出现如上世纪70年代类似的大通胀？目前市场对通胀的关注点主要在于美国，我们以美国的角度出发，讨论是否存在大通胀（通胀率长期维持在5%以上）的基础。\n回顾美国百年来的通胀历史，可以看出明显的大通胀时期有三个：第一次世界大战时期，第二次世界大战时期，70年代石油危机时期。我们认为大通胀的基础主要有以下几点：\n\n第一，财政或货币的扩张导致货币供给量大增。一战与二战都是战争导致的财政赤字货币化，货币供给激增；而石油危机前实际上也是由于越南战争导致了美国货币供给大增，M2同比甚至远高于金融危机之后的天量放水时期。通胀的本质是货币现象，这一经济规律其实并未失效，但前提是实体经济中流通的货币增加。\n第二，货币政策需要有一定的空间刺激长期需求。当利率水平较高、货币政策空间较大时，降息等货币政策能够有效促进货币在实体经济中流通；而当利率水平很低时，货币宽松就容易陷入流动性陷阱，无法推动货币进入实体经济，进而在金融体系中空转，造成货币政策失效。\n第三，通胀预期的自我实现，这来自于货币政策目标的模糊。三次大通胀时期的共同特点似乎是供给端出现断层，分别表现为军用生产挤出民用生产，以及石油供给中断。但我们认为这只是表层原因，深层原因在于通胀预期的抬升。供给的缺口推升了通胀预期，而在三次大通胀时期，各国央行均未有明确的通胀目标，而是在经济和通胀之间反复徘徊，始终没有真正紧缩货币，导致市场对货币宽松有持续的预期，最终通胀预期与货币宽松预期相互促进，自我实现。\n\n此外，新兴经济体也可能会因为债务危机、货币贬值而导致输入性恶性通胀，不过我们在此只讨论大型经济体，不考虑此种情况.\n结合以上三点大通胀基础，我们来分析目前的状况。首先，财政及货币的巨量刺激，目前全球是符合这一情况的，美国政府债务率甚至超过了二战时期，其它国家也大多如此。全球M2飙升，货币供给泛滥。其次，货币政策有一定空间。这一点是不满足的，发达国家目前几乎全部是零利率或负利率，美联储资产负债表上积压大量基础货币，流动性陷阱的特征明显。最后，通胀预期的自我实现，这一点在当前难以实现。因为现在全球央行基本都设立了明确的通胀目标，对管理市场预期起到了非常重要且有效的作用，市场不再认为央行会无视通胀而刺激经济。虽然美联储改变了通胀的框架，但仍然有明确的管控通胀的要求，与过去大通胀时期完全不同。货币政策对通胀目标的限定使得市场难以出现过高的通胀预期。\n综合以上几点，我们认为目前全球并不具备大通胀的基础，难以出现持续的过高通胀。\n2.3.短期大宗商品价格大概率回调，但幅度预计有限\n论述了长期通胀前景后，我们回归对年内通胀的走势判断。我们认为近期大宗商品价格大概率已经见顶，可能会有所回调，从而缓解部分通胀压力。\n首先，全球M2增速已经出现拐点，指向大宗商品价格有下行压力。我们计算了G4和金砖四国的M2总和同比，这一指标与RJ/CRB商品价格指数同比有高度的相关性，大多时候具有领先性，少数时段为同步。领先时段多为半年左右。这一指标于今年2月见顶，经验上来看商品整体价格存在回调压力。\n\n其次，美联储逐步释放的收紧信号和中国政府的价格调控也有助于降低市场大宗商品的投机热度。近期数据来看，铜、原油等此前被市场投机者关注的品种已经明显降温。大宗商品市场正在向基本面回归。\n\n不过我们认为大宗商品价格的回调有限，难以出现价格的持续下降。\n首先，新兴市场生产恢复不快，难以迅速增加原材料供给。从荷兰经济分析局编制的全球各类别经济体生产指数来看，除去中国后的新兴经济体生产水平到一季度末尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，且在一季度末重新出现下行趋势。在新兴市场疫苗普及普遍落后、疫情防控情况不佳的情况下，原材料供给缺口何时能够弥补尚未可知。\n\n其次，虽然铁矿石、铜、煤炭等商品近期出现回调，但大宗商品之母——原油价格不断上涨。国际油价与中国煤炭、黑色、有色等大宗商品价格相关度极高，目前来看三季度油价大概率居高不下甚至继续上涨，将阻碍整体通胀水平的下行。\n\n基于以上判断，我们认为下半年在商品价格小幅回调及基数抬升的效应下，中国PPI同比将小幅回落，但将处于高位震荡，存在超预期的风险。不过CPI上升的压力很小。一方面中国消费复苏平稳，需求端不会出现暴增；另一方面猪肉价格快速下跌至较低的位置，大大拖累了CPI的增速。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样?\n随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n3.1.美联储缩减购债势在必行\n从客观的市场反应来看，目前美联储QE已经导致市场流动性过剩，继续购债的必要性在下降。美国隔夜逆回购数量已经攀升至历史高位，远远高于前几轮QE后期的情况。与中国逆回购投放流动性不同，美联储隔夜逆回购的上升意味着金融系统将货币存入美联储而换取债券等资产，即市场主动将“水”倒灌进美联储，表明市场流动性已经严重过剩。甚至为了维持利率走廊的下限，美联储6月会议不得不上调IOER和ONRRP利率各5个基点，以避免过量的流动性将短端利率下压至零以下。各种流动性过剩的迹象表明美联储有必要加快缩减购债的进程。\n\n从美联储的主观意愿来看，对缩减购债的预期引导也在稳步进行。虽然6月美联储会议并未正式讨论缩减购债，但鲍威尔指出已经准备讨论缩减购债，这与此前“不讨论缩减购债”的论调相比已经向前迈了一步。我们认为美联储本轮缩减购债将大致分为五个阶段：\n第一阶段：完全不讨论缩减购债。\n第二阶段：准备讨论缩减购债。\n第三阶段：正式讨论缩减购债。\n第四阶段：公布缩减购债的时间计划。\n第五阶段：正式开始缩减购债。\n这一过程充分体现出美联储与市场的沟通。目前美联储已经从第一阶段跨入第二阶段。预计7月或8月就将正式讨论缩减购债，三季度末或四季度初可能公布缩减购债的时间计划，可能在今年年末或明年年初正式开始实施。\n6月美联储会议透露出的另一个信号是，美联储不再完全无视通胀了。此前在CPI数据超预期上升时，美联储官员都会出面“降温”，强调通胀是短期因素，不会因此改变货币政策取向。但在6月会议上，鲍威尔指出“通货膨胀可能会比我们预期的更高、更持久”，意味着美联储已经承认自己可能会误判通胀。同时指出“如果通胀预期过高，将准备调整政策。”表明美联储已经不完全是淡化通胀的态度，而是随时做好了政策应对。如我们前文所述，美国长期通胀中枢将会抬升，短期也存在超预期的可能，这也会促使美联储加快货币政策正常化的步伐。\n3.2.美元将维持短期强势，美债收益率有望重拾升势\n由于本轮周期中美联储与市场沟通非常充分，对市场预期的引导也较为成功，所以我们认为美联储货币政策正常化的进程不会对市场造成很大扰动，股市不会因此受到明显冲击。不过随着收紧预期的逐步兑现，汇率和债市会有相应变化。\n我们认为在美联储紧缩预期之下，美元指数短期之内将维持较强势头，但不会进入强美元周期。我们在第一部分提到，美国三季度经济应会表现强劲，相对其它主要经济体有较大的相对优势，这是支撑美元的基本面基础。同时我们认为美联储货币政策收紧的预期会在三季度逐步升温，这是美元强势的政策面基础。\n不过从长期来看，美联储货币政策正常化不必然带来美元的强周期。回顾2008年之后美国几轮QE的经验，每次QE退出会带来美元的短期强势，但势头能否维持仍取决于美国经济基本面是否真正转好。QE3退出后虽然美元进入了强周期，但当时的更大背景是欧债危机再度爆发，欧元区QE预期不断升温并最终落地，被动推升了美元。而目前从欧洲几个主要债务国和德国的国债利差来看，欧债危机的风险已经大大减弱，欧元区货币政策正常化进程虽然慢于美国，但很难出现2014-2015年反向操作的情况。而如上文所述，我们认为明年之后美国经济很可能出现相对劣势，所以美元长期来看难以维持强劲势头。\n\n\n对于债市而言，美联储6月鹰派会议之后出现了一个较为有趣的现象：短端利率快速上升，但长端利率反而大幅下行，收益率曲线扁平化。这反映出市场目前对美联储短期加快收紧货币政策甚至加息是不怀疑的，但对于长期经济和通胀并没有信心。这与我们对美元指数的判断逻辑是部分相符的，美元表现与美国短端利率相关性更大，而长期来看则不易维持强劲。\n但我们认为三季度长端利率仍有较大的上行的风险。目前市场对长期增长悲观的很重要原因在于就业数据表现不够亮眼，即使6月份非农就业数据超预期上升，但失业率也反常走高，并不能够打消市场忧虑。同时随着近期大宗商品价格回调，通胀预期也有所下降。但如上文所述，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度有望加速复苏，而通胀也难以很快下降，所以美债长端收益率在短暂回调之后可能继续上升。\n\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？\n在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n4.1.下半年基数升高，出口增速逐季下降\n2020年从第三季度起，由于对疫情的良好控制，中国率先恢复生产，替代效应导致下半年出口表现亮眼，而对应的高基数将导致2021年下半年的出口同比增速受到明显抑制。2020年6月份中国出口总额同比增长0%，而7月份同比增长跃升至7%，且之后进一步提速，在11、12月同比增速分别高达21%与18%。在如此高基数的影响下，今年三四季度难以维持上半年的出口总额的超高同比增速。从数据上来看，即使假设下半年保持了第一季度对2019年13%的复合增速，那么三四季度的出口也将分别自然从一季度的49%大幅回落至18%和9%，故基数效应的影响在下半年的出口增速表现上起着主导作用，出口增速的逐季回落将是确定性的。\n\n4.2.全球需求端好转，对冲供给端的替代效应的衰减\n4.2.1. 全球经济修复带来的需求改善，是下半年出口的核心基本面\n中国作为世界工业大国，是全球产业链中极为重要的一环，故在历次的全球经济复苏过程中，中国的出口表现均十分亮眼。从数据上看，中国出口总额同比增速与OECD的实际GDP同比增速之间在大趋势和拐点上有着较强的相关性，也印证了在全球需求端好转的背景下，中国的出口表现往往不弱。\n\n当前虽然仍有疫情扰动，全球经济复苏尚不均衡，但从发达国家及全球整体来看，经济复苏的态势已经十分明显，且随着疫苗的接种，全球经济将持续转好，大势不改。从数据上来看，目前OECD综合领先指标在2021年3月份以来超过100且仍在持续扩张，反映出未来6个月全球的经济增长将保持强势。同时，截至6月30日，WTI原油现货价达73.47，波罗的海干散货指数达3383，油价和上游原材料的运价不断创出新高，也在一定程度上指向当前全球工业的蓬勃发展。\n\n所以，我们认为中国出口的基本面并没有走坏，出口的支撑逻辑发生了一定的变化，由之前的供给端生产替代主导，逐渐转化为全球需求端拉动中国出口。此外，从中国出口结构来看，2021年以来对出口增速拉动最为明显的项目均为工业生产的中游原材料及中游机械设备，也印证了我们逻辑转换的观点。\n\n4.2.2.   需求面拉动可极大程度对冲生产替代效应减弱的影响\n下半年全球的经济复苏将成为中国最核心的出口基本面。首先，全球需求总量的上升，对中国出口有着直接的拉动作用；其次，这种新释放出来的需求边际增量将很大程度上对冲海外经济体所恢复的供给，从而减弱海外供给恢复给中国带来的替代效应衰减。从数据上来看，在2019年全球出口总额全年负增长的背景下，中国出口占比仅为13%至14%。而2021年3月和4月全球出口总额同比分别大幅上涨26%与47%，对比2019年的复合增速高达7%与5%。在此期间中国在全球的出口份额降低至15%左右。同时，近一年来，疫苗接种较好的欧盟出口份额占比仅始终围绕13%小幅震荡，而东盟出口份额占比整体呈现出缓慢回落的形态。故全球需求端的复苏在极大程度上对冲了生产替代效应的衰退，生产替代效应的衰退影响有限，下半年出口将保持景气。\n\n4.3.下半年疫苗医药的出口仍有韧性\n截至2021年5月中国出口商品中，生物技术（疫苗等）、医药材及药品分别同比增加1240%和99%，对中国28%的出口增速的当月拉动率分别为5.7%和1.8%。目前欧洲仍受变异病毒影响，而东南亚等新兴经济体疫情正在爆发，由于疫苗供给不足，新兴经济体疫苗接种率普遍仍在10%以下，对中国疫苗和药品的需求仍大。同时截至2021年6月30日，中国已接种12.4亿剂新冠疫苗，随着中国对疫苗需求量的逐渐下降，大量疫苗产能可以用于供应出口，故下半年生物技术相关商品（疫苗等）的出口将大概率至少维持100%以上的复合同比增长，而医药材及药品的出口将至少保持50%以上的复合同比增速。\n\n4.4.航运不畅的扰动将在第三四季度大幅缓解\n航运不畅是此前影响中国进出口的重要因素之一。当前航运不畅的主要原因来自于：1.疫情造成的劳动力短缺；2. 集装箱周转低效导致的中国集装箱短缺。展望下半年，疫情导致的航运及港口劳动力的短缺等问题将随着疫苗的接种和就业市场的复苏而得到缓解；而集装箱的短缺，将随着集装箱的大量生产和周转效率的加快而得到解决，故航运不畅对运输效率的拖累在三四季度将会有明显好转。\n造成航运不畅的劳动力短缺来自于两方面，一方面是因为疫情和大规模财政刺激的影响，许多接受失业补助的工人选择呆在家里，导致了港口工人和货运司机无法得到及时的补充。但目前美国疫苗完全接种率已高达46%，随着美国失业救济的停止发放，以及疫苗的进一步普及，港口劳动力的短缺有望在下半年得到缓解。另一方面是海员的劳动力短缺，据国际航运公会相关数据，全球国际贸易商船上共有约164.7万名海员，其中15%来自于印度，而印度爆发第二波疫情后，全球多国的港口开始拒绝载有印度海员或途径印度的船只入港，增加了海员轮换的难度。而数据显示，印度疫情的高峰已过，海员轮换的进程将逐渐回归正常。\n\n港口及海员劳动力的恢复，将提高港口运力，从而缓解重要港口的集装箱堆积问题。此外，中国集装箱生产企业也在加大产量，近5个月以来中国集装箱出口同比始终保持在150%以上，新增集装箱的补充和运力增加后的空箱更快返回亚洲，都将逐渐改善当前的运输效率。\n\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？\n从盈利预期来看，今年企业家加大投资的意愿较强；从产能利用率来看，目前现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，而海外需求端还在不断走强；从资金端来看，今年企业内源性和外源性融资均具有保障，企业具有追加投资的能力。综合来看，2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n5.1.下半年制造业仍在上行通道\n从盈利预期来看，企业家对未来制造业的回暖保持相对乐观的态度，企业存在加大投资的意愿。对制造业投资具有领先意义的企业家信心指数自去年一季度见底以来一路快速上行，在2021年一季度达到144.7的历史最高位，同时制造业贷款需求指数也达72.2为近10年来的高位，且在三四季度随着大宗商品的价格得到控制，盈利预期有望进一步改善，故盈利端整体来看，今年制造业投资将保持景气。同时，截至2021年5月，工业企业利润当月同比高达36.4%，对2019年复合同比20.2%，利润增速的保持高位也提振了企业家信心，加强企业家主动投资扩产的意愿。\n\n从产能利用率来看，目前工业产能利用率仍在历史高位，现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，在全球经济复苏需求端好转的背景下，下半年对追加制造业投资的需求客观存在。2021年一季度，中国工业产能利用率为77.2%，随较去年四季度有所下滑，但是仍处在近10年来的高位。此外，截至2021年5月，固定资产投资完成额中，新建项目累计同比为15.6%，复合同比4%，复合增速自2021年以来稳步上升，且高于2020年各月份的累计同比增速。而建筑安装工程5月复合增速为5.6%，自2020年以来建安投资增速稳步上行。新建项目和建安投资的稳步增加，也在一定程度上印证了2021年市场对进一步增加制造业投资的需求客观存在。\n\n从融资状况来看，今年企业资金端具有保障，企业具有充足的资金追加投资。外源融资方面，4月中央政治局会议指出当前经济恢复尚不均衡、基础仍不稳固，稳健的货币政策要保持流动性合理充裕，强化对实体经济、重点领域、薄弱环节的支持。在此政策基调下，制造业企业的外源融资具有保障。内源融资方面，今年制造业盈利企稳回升，5月工业企业利润总额达8299亿元，处在历史高位，内源性资金的增强，亦可加强企业进一步投资的能力。\n5.2.结构方面：医药、计算机通信、中游原材料与机械制造领跑\n2021年全球的生产恢复成为主旋律，在海外需求端改善及主动补库进程开启的背景下，出口成为我国国民经济中的关键线索。计算机通信、机械设备这类典型的出口依赖型行业，面临着更好的盈利预期；疫情相关的医药制造业也由于新兴经济体的疫苗供给匮乏和疫情反复而具有较好的基本面支撑。数据上来看，最近3个月相关行业的固定资产投资完成额累计同比确实在持续地边际改善，也进一步印证了出口是今年制造业投资重要线索。出口方面，今年疫情相关的医药，宅经济和生产替代相关的计算机通信，生产复苏相关的中游原材料与机械制造预计都将具有较好表现，故对应行业也将领跑今年的制造业投资。\n\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？\n在疫情后的复苏路径之中，中国和海外各国出现了明显的分化。中国疫情防控得当，但政策刺激较少，故而呈现“生产强、消费弱”的格局，发达国家未能控制疫情、无法复工复产，但财政刺激规模巨大，呈现“生产弱、消费强”的局面。我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n6.1.居民收入对消费的限制会逐步缓解\n从总量层面来看，中国消费恢复较慢的原因有两个：一是疫情之后的经济衰退导致中国居民的收入水平明显下降，消费能力下降。我们以城镇居民人均可支配收入的两年符合同比来衡量，直到今年一季度居民收入的增速也与疫情前的差距较大，从而限制了消费能力。但这也反映出居民消费修复的空间仍大，我们认为居民收入会随着经济的逐步复苏而稳步增加，这一因素并不会成为制约消费的长期原因。\n二是疫情导致居民的消费意愿也有所下降。居民消费支出与收入之比在疫情后降至最低点。今年一季度消费收入比再度下降，我们认为今年就地过年的政策对此产生了较大干扰。不过数据也反映出疫情仍然对居民的消费意愿有较大影响。此外，后疫情时代居民的预防性储蓄增加，也是压制消费的重要原因。随着疫情影响逐步淡化，这些因素终会消退，但居民消费意愿尤其是储蓄意愿的改变需要较长时间才能反转，所以未来消费复苏仍会是相对缓慢的过程。\n\n6.2.消费结构会逐步趋于均衡\n从结构上看，餐饮和出行相关消费仍然受到抑制；尤其是限额以下消费十分惨淡。作为占社零总额10%以上的行业，餐饮业恢复情况远远落后于平均水平。不过值得注意的是限额以上企业餐饮收入总额已经充分恢复，甚至高于疫情前水平。我们认为这反映出两个问题：第一，疫情影响导致居民外出餐饮的意愿仍然较低，总餐饮收入增速很低印证了这一点。第二，疫情期间可能很多小型企业已经倒闭，导致其消费被限额以上企业部分替代。但大量小企业的倒闭会导致很多消费场景的缺失，所以这也会影响到总量消费。小企业回归市场则需要相对更长的时间，所以消费修复的复苏也将相对缓慢。\n与外出相关的消费恢复落后于其他行业，比如服装类消费，石油类消费。由于疫情后居民出行意愿的降低，即使在去年超低的基数之下，石油类消费增长仍然疲软。但也可以看出这些行业正在边际改善，且增速提升较快。随着疫情影响的缓解，与外出相关的行业消费将有较快修复，消费结构将会更加趋于均衡。\n\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？\n我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n7.1.“德尔塔”病毒是影响货币政策的不确定性因素\n目前全球的疫情防控面临新的变数，“德尔塔”变异病毒开始肆虐全球，从南亚开始，快速对东南亚、东亚以及欧美地区的部分国家造成了严重影响。由于目前的疫苗对该病毒仍然有保护性，且欧美国家的疫苗可及性比发展中国家高得多，因此该变异病毒尚未对发达国家的疫情防控产生严重影响。近期发生在广东的中国新一轮局部疫情蔓延也得到控制，广东已连续超过10日无新增本土病例。综上，我们预期下半年，随着全球疫苗接种的进一步推进，主要经济体的疫情再次大规模爆发的可能性不大，以下货币政策展望的分析基于疫情持续控制背景下经济平稳复苏的判断。但是我们也不排除变异病毒再次让全球主要经济体停摆的尾部风险。\n\n7.2.美联储货币政策正常化会带动全球协同反应\n上文中我们提到，下半年美国货币政策正常化预期管理会加速推进将是大概率事件。在此背景下，今年以来部分新兴经济体已经开始行动，提前加息，比如巴西央行于3、5月加息两次，总共提高150个基点；俄罗斯央行于3、4月两次加息，总共提高75个基点；土耳其则于3月一次提升200个基点；韩国央行行长也公开表态在年底会上调利率。\n我们认为此轮部分新兴经济体加息，是对高通胀和应对美联储未来货币正常化风险的综合考量，也符合历史经验。市场很多观点认为，新兴经济体加息主要是应对高通胀，但高通胀本身是供需矛盾叠加全球流动性宽松的合力结果。如果单纯从经济考虑，当前很多新兴国家经济尚未完全恢复，货币政策似乎应该更多注重经济的复工复产和就业，加息的必要性不强，幅度也不应过大，这与当前已经行动的新兴经济体央行政策行为不一致。从新兴经济体的历史加息经验来看，在上一轮美联储2015年加息之前，新兴经济体往往提前准备，先行加息大约领先美联储一年左右。在美国经济恢复超预期以及美联储FMOC会议接近鹰派表述的背景下，此次新兴经济体加息应不仅仅解读为应对通胀风险，也是对未来美联储政策转向提前准备。\n\n7.3.下半年我国货币政策会保持定力，难转宽松\n二季度我国货币政策保持定力，流动性释放和回笼基本持平，社融增速缓速下降。结合前文对下半年经济形势的判断，综合以下各类因素分析，我们认为下半年我国的货币政策会继续管好货币总闸门，不会转向宽松，维持市场流动性合理充裕。虽然货币政策在总量上的不会进一步宽松，但是货币政策结构性支持实体经济发展的效能不会减。根据一季度央行货币政策执行报告，下一阶段的货币政策在管好总闸门的同时，也会进一步发挥好再贷款、再贴现和两项直达实体经济的结构性货币政策工具的牵引带动作用，这在当前和未来仍然会成为货币政策支持推动实体经济高质量转型升级的重要着力点。\n7.3.1.国际货币政策总体协调仍然是成立的\n我国货币政策遵循先内而外，以我为主，但美联储的货币政策风向预期转变对中国政策不可谓没有影响。从历史经验来看，为应对经济大幅下行风险，2014至2015年美联储缩表期间，中国央行启动多轮降准降息，货币政策明显宽松。但是在美联储启动加息的前的两个月，中国央行亦停止降息，至今没有再调整过基准利率。因此，认为美联储的货币政策完全不影响我国政策是有失偏颇的。从二季度的央行例会表述来看，与第一季度相比，措辞也更加明确“加强国际宏观经济政策协调，防范外部冲击”。\n上一轮我国降准降息政策的副作用也比较大，应当吸取教训。我国先后出现股市和各线城市房价的轮番上涨，最终股市泡沫以股灾结束，而房产泡沫则使得房价居高不下。货币政策对实体经济发展支撑有限，同时也增加了后期控制房价稳定的难度。\n\n7.3.2.货币政策目标看我国下半年转向宽松的理由不充分\n第一，从货币政策的物价目标看，下半年通胀压力会比上半年小，但PPI指数仍会较高，并非物价下行就可以宽松。当前的CPI不高，6月份公布的PMI数据也验证PPI已经大概率见顶，未来进入下行通道。虽然通胀压力比上半年要小，但下半年PPI的下降是缓慢的，通胀水平还会在高位盘整一段时间，总体压力并不小，因此我们并不认为通胀压力小了，货币政策就可以宽松，和上半年物价压力大也并不构成货币就应当紧的道理一样。\n\n第二，从货币政策的经济和就业目标来看，我们当前的就业保持景气，经济增长平稳持续恢复，高质量发展诉求高于高增速诉求，稳增长保就业压力较小。一方面，与2015年时候不同，当前决策层对经济质量的要求要高于增速的要求，不会因为一定程度的下行压力而放松货币供给。另一方面，目前中国经济恢复态势仍然较为平稳，宽松诉求不强。失业率来看，城镇调查失业率最近几个月一直下降，5月份录得5%，甚至已经低于疫情发生前的水平，保就业成果显著，压力明显降低。从经济增速来看，一季度以来的GDP增长快速恢复增速同比达到18.3%，以2019年为基期的同比增长10.25%，经济活力强劲恢复。二季度的GDP预期同比达到8.6%，世界银行6月份上调中国经济增长预期0.4个百分点，为8.5%。下半年GDP同比增长受高基数影响必然会下降，但很可能比预期更好，出口下降预计有限，消费受疫情影响有波动，但恢复的趋势不变，制造业投资预计保持较强劲的增长态势。\n第三，从货币政策的去杠杆目标来看，我们预计二季度宏观杠杆率与一季度基本持平，不再下降，保持在高位。今年一季度的杠杆率较去年四季度有所回落，降至267.8%，但主要源于一季度GDP的基数效应。根据我们测算，二季度的宏观杠杆率将与一季度基本持平，宏观杠杆率稳定在高位。控制总体杠杆的增速已然成为宏观政策的新课题，下半年经济发展同比会有放缓，但韧性较足，货币政策无需放水进一步推升宏观杠杆。\n\n第四，从人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的目标来看，年内人民币强势趋势性升值的压力并不大。4月份人民币出现一轮明显升值，5月底以来尤其美联储释放鹰派态度后，美元反弹，人民币汇率也小幅回调。我们预计下半年人民币大概率双向振荡，对货币政策指示性意义较弱。\n\n7.3.3.当前货币量价及信用在合意水平\n第一，从货币政策的价格指标看，政策利率已经处于近十几年的最低水平，基本不存在进一步宽松空间。7天逆回购利率作为政策利率，去年疫情后已经降低2.2%的水平，是近十几年来的最低水平，目前没有下调空间。市场对政策利率下调的预期也比较低。\n第二，从货币政策的量指标看，近期的流动性操作主要以维持流动性合理充裕为准，流动性的释放和回收基本持平，市场资金利率保持了平稳。二季度央行公开市场操作一共净投放不足1000亿，大部分是应对6月流动性趋紧而增加的投放，总体上可以认为二季度货币投放回笼基本持平，DR001和DR007基本保持平稳，表明银行间资金基本充裕。也就是说，资金不松不紧即可实现流动性的合理充裕。\n第三，从信用的角度看，货币供给和社融增速与名义GDP基本匹配是政策目标，目前来看也没有转向宽松的需要。今年的政府工作报告明确提出，保持货币供给和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配。从下图可以看出，无论是名义GDP的季度增长指标，还是GDP增长率代理变量——工业增加值增长率（月度环比），都与社融规模保持基本匹配。近几个月的社融增速已由年初的13%逐步下降到11%，目前我们仍然维持去年年末以来的预测，今年的社融规模增速总体会下降到10%-11%。5月M2增速录得8.3%，下半年随着基数降低可能出现小幅回升，如与社融增速结合看，基本可以实现与全年名义GDP增长基本匹配。\n总而言之，我们从多角度去分析，下半年中国货币政策转向宽松的理由均不是很充分，要注意市场出现这种预期的风险。\n\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？\n人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n8.1.短期内人民币将震荡调整，但不会进入贬值周期\n回顾去年以来各国汇率的走势，疫情是核心影响因素，人民币汇率亦是如此。去年2月份中国疫情率先爆发，人民币出现贬值。3月份海外疫情爆发并造成美元流动性危机，所有非美货币集体贬值，人民币兑美元下跌。随着5月份流动性危机缓解，中国率先走出疫情的困境，经济快速复苏，人民币进入了半年多的升值过程。今年年初美国秋冬季节的大规模疫情开始缓解，且疫苗普及加速，美元走强，人民币被动贬值。4月之后美国疫苗接种放缓，而欧洲疫苗普及加快，叠加非农数据不及预期等影响，美元兑欧元走弱，人民币兑美元也间接走强。5月下旬人民币加速升值。6月之后随着央行的调控和美联储鹰派会议，人民币兑美元出现回调。\n\n4月以来人民币已经经历了较大幅度的升值，速度过快，我们认为短期内存在调整压力。\n首先，人民币升值的速度超过了基本面基础。与去年中国率先控制疫情、强劲复苏相比，今年二季度与三季度是美国经济相对优势更加明显的阶段，人民币在这一阶段出现大幅度快速升值脱离了经济基本面基础。\n其次，从央行对汇率的态度来看，中国央行始终在避免汇率过快波动，因为这将影响金融系统和贸易体系的稳定性。5月下旬部分央行官员支持人民币升值的言论点燃了市场对人民币的升值预期，导致人民币快速升值，这其中有大量的投机因素存在。所以央行立刻表态抑制人民币过快波动。\n\n不过我们认为人民币不会因此大幅度贬值甚至进入贬值周期。\n从2015年“811”汇改以来的经验来看，央行对人民币汇率的调控都是逆周期的，并没有明确引导汇率升值或贬值的意愿，而只是抑制人民币的过快波动。而从效果来看，央行的管控只会对人民币汇率产生短期影响，很难影响大趋势。最终人民币汇率转折的基础在于经济和货币政策的基本面。所以此次央行虽然出手干预汇率，但难以就此扭转趋势。\n\n此外，从国际关系的角度来讲，目前中国正在面临中美第一阶段协议的较大压力，需要大幅进口以完成对美承诺，这客观上要求人民币汇率应保持坚挺以促进进口。中美第一阶段协议中，中国在制成品、农产品、能源产品几部分（服务贸易不易统计暂时不讨论）需要在2017年的基础上两年合计增加进口777亿美元、320亿美元及524亿美元。而根据美国口径的贸易数据，2020年中国自美国的进口量只增加了21.1亿、45.2亿和20.9亿美元，所以如果要完成中美第一阶段协议，中国今年在这三个领域需要共计增加1534亿美元的进口量。如果需要达到两年的目标，则需要分别达到149.87%，131.33%和657.69%的增速。即使不考虑填补去年的差额，2021年需要较2017年的增量也需分别达到88.82%，93.18%和443.16%。今年到目前为止的承诺完成率仍然不高，压力较大。\n从中美双方的态度来看，都有较强意愿完成第一阶段协议。美方甚至明确表示这是考虑对中国削减关税的条件之一。所以从完成进口承诺和维护中美关系的需求来看，人民币也不适宜在此时出现过大幅度的贬值。\n\n8.2.中长期人民币存在继续升值的基础\n虽然在今年下半年尤其是三季度人民币存在调整的压力。但从中长期来看人民币升值的基本面基础仍强。\n从经济长期增长的角度来看，中国经济相比之下更加稳健。在疫情期间全球主要央行都采取了大水漫灌的货币和财政政策，央行资产负债表极速扩张。相比之下，中国货币政策非常克制，M2同比增速的最高点仅与2016年之前的最低点相当。财政政策力度也有限。没有强力的刺激则意味着未来政策退出的压力也更小。事实上中国今年货币和财政政策已经基本回到正常轨道，而其它主要经济体则将面临政策退出的阵痛期。相比之下，未来中国经济增长将更加平稳，这也将增强人民币的吸引力。\n\n从通胀的角度来看，我们经过大量的分析，结果显示各国的通胀和汇率均有明显的反向关系。汇率贬值会引起通胀上升，背后是输入性通胀的影响；通胀上升也会引起汇率贬值，背后是购买力平价的原理。如上文所述，我们认为发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升，而中国通胀压力则相对较小。美国由于现金补贴、房地产过热、服务业复苏和能源价格上涨等原因引发了全面通胀，而中国CPI则处于很低的水平，这有助于维持人民币的购买力，进而支持汇率。\n从货币政策的角度来看，与2014-2016年人民币的贬值周期不同的是，目前美联储货币政策虽在正常化的途中，但中国货币政策也在“转弯”，二者是同向的，而非如2014-2016年美国收紧而中国大放水的情况。所以中国货币政策的正常化将部分抵消美联储收紧给人民币汇率带来的压力。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167400809,"gmtCreate":1624280280801,"gmtModify":1703832277071,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167400809","repostId":"2145308754","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166374216,"gmtCreate":1623994343135,"gmtModify":1703826031334,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166374216","repostId":"2144724348","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161172727,"gmtCreate":1623914648169,"gmtModify":1703823383408,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"follow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10:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285933","media":"36氪","summary":"从0到50万部，在2021年 Q1，小米成为智利增长最快的智能手机品牌。\n据市场研究机构 Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021年 Q1 智利智能手机出货量同比增长71%，达到创纪录","content":"<p>From 0 to 500,000 units, in Q1 2021, Xiaomi became the fastest growing smartphone brand in Chile.</p><p>Chilean smartphone shipments rose 71% year-on-year to a record 2.9 million units in Q1 2021, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. Among them, Xiaomi performed the most eye-catching, winning the third place in the market with 500,000 shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1,025%, making it the fastest growing smartphone brand in the region. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's market share in Chile also increased to 15.5% from 2.4% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a62fcc4249c35c8aa676f2643adcdf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In 2014, 4-year-old Xiaomi extended its tentacles overseas. For Xiaomi, Latin America, which loves \"buy, buy, buy\", is a fertile soil that needs to be developed urgently. Among them, Chile, as the third largest smartphone market in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, naturally can't be missed by Xiaomi.<b>Chile: A mature market to be developed urgently</b></p><p>Chile, is a country with high income, high internet penetration and high smartphone penetration. According to 2020 data from Worldmeter and the global economic index platform Trading Economics, Chile has a population of about 19 million people and a per capita GDP of more than $15,000, making it a high-income country.</p><p>In terms of Internet penetration, according to data from Digital Portal in January 2021, the Internet penetration rate in Chile is as high as 82.3%, with more than 15 million Internet users. Talking about the smartphone market in Chile, Counterpoint Research analyst Tina Lu said: \"Chile is the most mature market in Latin America, and it has the highest smartphone penetration and replacement rate in the region.\" Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics, also said: \"Chile is the third largest smartphone market in Latin America, second only to Brazil and Mexico. In 2021, although the country was affected by the epidemic, the demand for smartphones was still high. The 71% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2021 is enough to prove it.\"</p><p>Chile, which has a \"good\" smartphone development environment, is also a crucial step for Xiaomi's layout in the Latin American market. It is reported that as early as December 2018, Xiaomi has begun to lay out the Chilean market. However, when it first entered Chile, Xiaomi did not immediately deploy \"Xiaomi Authorized Store\" (Mi Store), but sold its products through some large shopping malls and mobile phone stores, but the sales volume did not seem to be very satisfactory. In order to further open up the Chilean market, on April 27, 2019, Xiaomi's first Chilean \"rice store\" opened in the bustling business district east of Santiago, the capital of Chile.</p><p>Regarding the reason why Xiaomi has achieved such a record in Chile this time, Rajeev Nair, senior analyst of Strategy Analytics, analyzed: \"Xiaomi's Redmi mobile phone has a high cost performance, which makes this mobile phone strongly recognized among Chilean consumers whose consumption is downgraded because of the epidemic, thus helping Xiaomi to gain the third position in shipments in the region and further increase its market share. In addition, the 'loss' of Huawei's mobile phone during this period also gave Xiaomi a lot of room for growth.\"</p><p>However, in Chile, Xiaomi has to face<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Lenovo-Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Wait for the encirclement and suppression of other competitors, especially Samsung, the giant that still \"dominates the market\". Woody Oh, director of Strategy Analytics, said: \"Samsung's smartphone market share in Chile remains relatively stable at the level of about 42%. In 2021, Samsung's smartphone shipments in Chile increased by 63% year-on-year.\" However, regarding Xiaomi's development space in Chile, Rajeev Nair, an analyst at Strategy Analytics, added: \"If the current growth trend continues, Xiaomi will surpass Lenovo-Motorola and become the second largest smartphone brand in Chile by the end of 2021.\"<b>Latin America: A Fertile Ground for Loving \"Buy, Buy, Buy\"</b></p><p>Latin America, generally referring to the region of America south of the United States, including Mexico, Central America, the West Indies, and South America. There are 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to UN data. In 2021, the population of the region has exceeded 650 million. Regional development in Latin America has not been balanced, despite not being low in GDP per capita (around $9,000 on average). Among them, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru are countries with high development level in this region, and they have also become the key markets for players in various tracks.</p><p>From the perspective of mobile phone penetration, according to Global Mobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communication system</a>By the end of 2020, nearly 70 percent of Latin American residents had a personal mobile phone, according to data from the Association (GSMA). For Latin American consumers, Samsung remains the most popular product in the region, alongside other brands such as Motorola, Apple, Huawei and LG.</p><p>In terms of market share, according to StateCounter's 2021 data, Samsung has a market share of up to 45% in the Latin American market, leading the way. In addition, Motorola and Apple ranked second and third with 16% and 10% market shares, respectively. Xiaomi and Huawei rank among the top five with similar market share. However, for Xiaomi, which began to lay out the Latin American market in 2015, such achievements are not eye-catching.</p><p>It is reported that as early as 2015, Xiaomi tested the Latin American market. As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil has become Xiaomi's first choice. However, at that time, Brazil's overall economic situation was not good, and consumers had to \"tighten their purses\" to live. Coupled with Brazil's high taxes and a series of \"unfriendly\" policies introduced by the government due to local protectionism, Xiaomi finally left the market in 2016 after frequent setbacks. After three years, Xiaomi, which has gained a certain popularity internationally, decided to return to Brazil. In June 2019, Xiaomi opened its first physical store in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subsequently, Xiaomi accelerated its layout in Latin America, and sold its products to markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay through online malls and offline \"rice stores\".</p><p>Today, Xiaomi's market share in major markets such as Brazil and Colombia is basically in the top five, and it entered the top three in the Chilean market in Q1 2021. However, today's Latin American market is still \"ruled\" by Samsung. In addition, Motorola, which has a strong \"mass base\", Apple, which has both popularity and strength, and Chinese brands such as Huawei, vivo, OPPO and realme are also eating into this fertile soil.</p><p>Xiaomi still has a long way to go to really \"win\" Latin America.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From 0 to 500,000 units, in Q1 2021, Xiaomi became the fastest growing smartphone brand in Chile.</p><p>Chilean smartphone shipments rose 71% year-on-year to a record 2.9 million units in Q1 2021, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. Among them, Xiaomi performed the most eye-catching, winning the third place in the market with 500,000 shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1,025%, making it the fastest growing smartphone brand in the region. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's market share in Chile also increased to 15.5% from 2.4% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a62fcc4249c35c8aa676f2643adcdf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In 2014, 4-year-old Xiaomi extended its tentacles overseas. For Xiaomi, Latin America, which loves \"buy, buy, buy\", is a fertile soil that needs to be developed urgently. Among them, Chile, as the third largest smartphone market in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, naturally can't be missed by Xiaomi.<b>Chile: A mature market to be developed urgently</b></p><p>Chile, is a country with high income, high internet penetration and high smartphone penetration. According to 2020 data from Worldmeter and the global economic index platform Trading Economics, Chile has a population of about 19 million people and a per capita GDP of more than $15,000, making it a high-income country.</p><p>In terms of Internet penetration, according to data from Digital Portal in January 2021, the Internet penetration rate in Chile is as high as 82.3%, with more than 15 million Internet users. Talking about the smartphone market in Chile, Counterpoint Research analyst Tina Lu said: \"Chile is the most mature market in Latin America, and it has the highest smartphone penetration and replacement rate in the region.\" Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics, also said: \"Chile is the third largest smartphone market in Latin America, second only to Brazil and Mexico. In 2021, although the country was affected by the epidemic, the demand for smartphones was still high. The 71% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2021 is enough to prove it.\"</p><p>Chile, which has a \"good\" smartphone development environment, is also a crucial step for Xiaomi's layout in the Latin American market. It is reported that as early as December 2018, Xiaomi has begun to lay out the Chilean market. However, when it first entered Chile, Xiaomi did not immediately deploy \"Xiaomi Authorized Store\" (Mi Store), but sold its products through some large shopping malls and mobile phone stores, but the sales volume did not seem to be very satisfactory. In order to further open up the Chilean market, on April 27, 2019, Xiaomi's first Chilean \"rice store\" opened in the bustling business district east of Santiago, the capital of Chile.</p><p>Regarding the reason why Xiaomi has achieved such a record in Chile this time, Rajeev Nair, senior analyst of Strategy Analytics, analyzed: \"Xiaomi's Redmi mobile phone has a high cost performance, which makes this mobile phone strongly recognized among Chilean consumers whose consumption is downgraded because of the epidemic, thus helping Xiaomi to gain the third position in shipments in the region and further increase its market share. In addition, the 'loss' of Huawei's mobile phone during this period also gave Xiaomi a lot of room for growth.\"</p><p>However, in Chile, Xiaomi has to face<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Lenovo-Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Wait for the encirclement and suppression of other competitors, especially Samsung, the giant that still \"dominates the market\". Woody Oh, director of Strategy Analytics, said: \"Samsung's smartphone market share in Chile remains relatively stable at the level of about 42%. In 2021, Samsung's smartphone shipments in Chile increased by 63% year-on-year.\" However, regarding Xiaomi's development space in Chile, Rajeev Nair, an analyst at Strategy Analytics, added: \"If the current growth trend continues, Xiaomi will surpass Lenovo-Motorola and become the second largest smartphone brand in Chile by the end of 2021.\"<b>Latin America: A Fertile Ground for Loving \"Buy, Buy, Buy\"</b></p><p>Latin America, generally referring to the region of America south of the United States, including Mexico, Central America, the West Indies, and South America. There are 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to UN data. In 2021, the population of the region has exceeded 650 million. Regional development in Latin America has not been balanced, despite not being low in GDP per capita (around $9,000 on average). Among them, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru are countries with high development level in this region, and they have also become the key markets for players in various tracks.</p><p>From the perspective of mobile phone penetration, according to Global Mobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communication system</a>By the end of 2020, nearly 70 percent of Latin American residents had a personal mobile phone, according to data from the Association (GSMA). For Latin American consumers, Samsung remains the most popular product in the region, alongside other brands such as Motorola, Apple, Huawei and LG.</p><p>In terms of market share, according to StateCounter's 2021 data, Samsung has a market share of up to 45% in the Latin American market, leading the way. In addition, Motorola and Apple ranked second and third with 16% and 10% market shares, respectively. Xiaomi and Huawei rank among the top five with similar market share. However, for Xiaomi, which began to lay out the Latin American market in 2015, such achievements are not eye-catching.</p><p>It is reported that as early as 2015, Xiaomi tested the Latin American market. As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil has become Xiaomi's first choice. However, at that time, Brazil's overall economic situation was not good, and consumers had to \"tighten their purses\" to live. Coupled with Brazil's high taxes and a series of \"unfriendly\" policies introduced by the government due to local protectionism, Xiaomi finally left the market in 2016 after frequent setbacks. After three years, Xiaomi, which has gained a certain popularity internationally, decided to return to Brazil. In June 2019, Xiaomi opened its first physical store in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subsequently, Xiaomi accelerated its layout in Latin America, and sold its products to markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay through online malls and offline \"rice stores\".</p><p>Today, Xiaomi's market share in major markets such as Brazil and Colombia is basically in the top five, and it entered the top three in the Chilean market in Q1 2021. However, today's Latin American market is still \"ruled\" by Samsung. In addition, Motorola, which has a strong \"mass base\", Apple, which has both popularity and strength, and Chinese brands such as Huawei, vivo, OPPO and realme are also eating into this fertile soil.</p><p>Xiaomi still has a long way to go to really \"win\" Latin America.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202106061030337d494125&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6440ed998678ceba7821d81f1812c86f","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202106061030337d494125&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141285933","content_text":"从0到50万部，在2021年 Q1，小米成为智利增长最快的智能手机品牌。\n据市场研究机构 Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021年 Q1 智利智能手机出货量同比增长71%，达到创纪录的290万部。而其中，小米表现最为抢眼，以50万部的出货量夺得市场第三名，年同比增长高达1025%，成为该地区增长最快的智能手机品牌。与此同时，小米在智利的市场占有率也从去年同期的2.4%上升至15.5%。\n\n2014年，4岁的小米将触角伸向海外。对于小米来说，酷爱“买买买”的拉美是一片亟待开发的沃土。而其中，智利作为仅次于巴西和墨西哥的拉美第三大智能手机市场，小米自然不能错过。智利：亟待开发的成熟市场\n智利，是一个拥有高收入、高互联网渗透率和高智能手机普及率的国家。根据 Worldmeter 和全球经济指数平台 Trading Economics 2020年数据显示，智利拥有约1900万人口，人均 GDP 超过15000美元，属于高收入国家。\n互联网渗透率方面，根据 Digital Portal 2021年1月的数据显示，智利的互联网渗透率高达82.3%，网民人数达1500余万。而谈及智利的智能手机市场，Counterpoint Research 分析师 Tina Lu 表示：“智利是拉美地区最成熟的市场，其拥有该地区最高的智能手机普及率和更换率。” Strategy Analytics 执行董事 Neil Mawston 也表示：“智利是拉美第三大智能手机市场，仅次于巴西和墨西哥。2021年，该国虽然受到了疫情的影响，但民众对智能手机的需求仍旧很高。2021年 Q1 的出货量同比增长71%就足以证明。”\n拥有“良好”智能手机发展环境的智利，对于小米在拉美市场的布局来说也是至关重要的一步。据悉，早在2018年12月，小米就已经开始布局智利市场。然而，初入智利时，小米并没有马上部署“小米授权店”（米店），而是通过一些大型商场和手机专营店来进行产品的销售，但销量似乎并不是非常理想。为了进一步打开智利市场，2019年4月27日，小米的首家智利“米店”在智利首都圣地亚哥东部繁华商圈开业。\n而对于小米此次能够在智利取得如此战绩的原因，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 分析称：“小米旗下的红米手机具有很高的性价比，这使得该款手机在因为疫情而“消费 降级”的智利消费者中获得了强烈认可，从而帮助小米在该地区获得了出货量第三名的位置，也进一步提高了市场占有率。此外，华为手机此段时间的‘失利’也给了小米很大的增长空间。”\n不过，在智利，小米还要面对三星、联想-摩托罗拉、苹果等其他竞争对手的围剿，尤其是仍旧“制霸市场”的巨头三星。Strategy Analytics 总监 Woody Oh 称：“三星在智利的智能手机市场份额目前保持相对稳定，大约42%的水平。2021年，三星在智利的智能手机出货量同比增长 63%。”不过，关于小米在智利的发展空间，Strategy Analytics 的分析师 Rajeev Nair 补充道：“如果目前的增长趋势继续下去，小米将在2021年底之前超越联想-摩托罗拉，成为智利第二大智能手机品牌。”拉美：酷爱“买买买”的沃土\n拉丁美洲，通常泛指美国以南的美洲地区，包括墨西哥、中美洲、西印度群岛和南美洲。联合国数据显示，拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区共有33个国家。2021年，该区域人口已经超过了6.5亿。尽管人均 GDP 不低（平均9000美元左右），拉丁美洲区域发展并不平衡。其中，巴西、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、阿根廷、智利和秘鲁六国是这一区域发展水平较高的国家，也成为了各赛道玩家重点布局的市场。\n从手机渗透率来看，根据全球移动通信系统协会（GSMA）数据显示，截至2020年底，将近70%的拉美居民拥有个人手机。而对于拉美消费者来说，三星仍旧是该地区最受欢迎的产品，除此之外还有摩托罗拉、苹果、华为和 LG 等其他品牌。\n从市场占有率来看，根据 StateCounter 2021年的数据，三星在拉美市场的市占率高达45%，一路领跑。此外，摩托罗拉和苹果分别以16%和10%的市场份额位列第二、第三。而小米和华为以相差不多的市场占有率跻身前5名。然而，对于2015年就开始布局拉美市场的小米来说，这样的成绩不算亮眼。\n据悉，早在2015年，小米就曾试水拉美市场。而作为拉美最大经济体的巴西成为了小米的首选。然而，当时巴西整体的经济状况不佳，消费者不得不“勒紧钱袋”过日子，再加上巴西高昂的税收，以及政府因本土保护主义而出台的一系列“不友好”政策，小米在频频受挫后，最终于2016年遗憾离场。暌违3年之后，已经在国际上获得一定知名度的小米决定重回巴西。2019年6月，小米在巴西圣保罗开设了第一家实体店。随后，小米加快了在拉美的布局，通过在线商城和线下“米店”将产品卖到了巴西、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、智利和乌拉圭等市场。\n如今，小米在巴西、哥伦比亚等主要市场的市占率排名基本都在前五，并在2021年 Q1 进入了智利市场前三名。不过，如今的拉美市场仍旧被三星“统治”，除此之外，拥有强大“群众基础”的摩托罗拉、知名度和实力兼具的苹果，以及华为、vivo、OPPO 和 realme 等中国品牌也都在蚕食着这片沃土。\n想要真正“拿下”拉美，小米还有很长的一段路要走。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48652":0.6,"48708":0.6,"48709":0.6,"48717":0.6,"48728":0.6,"48730":0.6,"48736":0.6,"48754":0.6,"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115871212,"gmtCreate":1622978849036,"gmtModify":1704194018948,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115871212","repostId":"2141285221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285221","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622959680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285221?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Golden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285221","media":"FX168","summary":"“超级周”黄金踏上“惊险之旅” 下周这一事件恐再掀起市场巨澜FX168财经报社(北美)讯 过去一周，受包括非农就业报告等经济数据以及有关美联储动向消息的影响，金融市场波动剧烈，现货黄金也随之跌宕起伏。周二，金价攀升至1月初以来最高水平1916美元，但最终收跌。本周，现货黄金下跌12.62美元或0.66%。展望下周，最值得关注的是下周四的美国CPI数据，上次CPI数据不及预期一度导致黄金大跌，因此市场下周将密切关注这一数据。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Original title: Golden Weekly Review: Too exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FX168 Financial News (North America) News In the past week, affected by economic data including non-farm payrolls report and news about the trend of the Federal Reserve, the financial market fluctuated drastically, and spot gold also ups and downs. Gold started the week with light trading in consolidation due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States. On Tuesday,<span>Gold price</span><span></span>climbed to $1,916, its highest level since early January, but ended lower. While buyers continued to hold on to $1,900 on Wednesday, the dollar's resumption of rally led to gold recording its biggest one-day percentage drop in three months on Thursday. During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 4th), the price of gold continued to slide, reaching the lowest level of $1,856 in more than two weeks. Disappointing labor market data in the US triggered a pre-weekend rally, though, with gold closing around $1,890, snapping a four-week rally.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Friday, spot gold closed at $1,891.03/oz, up sharply by $20.67 or 1.11%. It once hit the lowest level of $1,855.06/oz since May 19th, but then rose strongly and refreshed to a daily high of $1,896.13/oz. For the week, spot gold is down $12.62 or 0.66%.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"572,396\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/168/w572h396/20210606/c208-kracxeq7415210.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold daily trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">COMEX August gold futures closed down 1.9% at $1,873.30/oz, a new closing low in the last two weeks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Looking forward to next week, the most noteworthy thing is the U.S. CPI data next Thursday. The last CPI data was less than expected, which once caused gold to plummet, so the market will pay close attention to this data next week. The United States will also announce the number of initial jobless claims next Thursday. In addition, the market will also be closely watching the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision scheduled to be announced next Wednesday and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Highlights of the Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Economic Data Frequently Get Good News US Dollar and Gold Diving Hand in Hand</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Tuesday (June 1st), data released by the United States showed that the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The final manufacturing PMI was 62.1. Some commentators pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing sector performed well in the second quarter, with the PMI hitting a new high for the second consecutive month in May. New order inflows are climbing at the highest pace in 14-year survey history, driven by recovering domestic demand and record export sales.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Another data released later showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 in May, with both the expected and previous values at 60.7. According to some institutions, manufacturing activity in the United States picked up in May, and pent-up demand due to the reopening of the economy boosted orders, but there is still a lot of unfinished work due to shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"This data indicates that the overall economy has expanded for 12 consecutive months after the contraction in April 2020,\" the report said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The dollar weakened and approached a five-month low after data showed shortages of raw materials and labor led to more unfinished work despite a pick-up in U.S. manufacturing activity last month.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">the US Dollar Index fell 25 points in the short term, refreshing its daily low to 89.66, and once rose to 90.45 last Friday, when the US inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve recorded its biggest annual increase since 1992.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As the dollar fell, the price of gold fell sharply from its nearly five-month high earlier, as strong U.S. manufacturing data and higher U.S. bond yields weakened its appeal.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In the U.S. market, spot gold fell sharply below the 1900 mark in the short term, and reached a daily low of $1,892.26/oz, down $24 from the daily high.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/176/w575h401/20210606/dff3-kracxeq8533819.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"Gold has seen a slight pullback as U.S. stocks continue to rise and U.S. Treasury Bond yields start to move higher,\" said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">He added that investors may think that the Fed's policy of tapering bond purchases will be faster than expected.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">US economic data, the Federal Reserve continued to send heavy news, the US dollar \"one pillar holds the sky\" and the gold \"cliff falls\"</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Thursday (June 3rd), the latest series of economic data released by the United States showed strong performance. Private sector employment grew at its fastest pace in nearly a year in May, with businesses hiring nearly 1 million people, according to a report released Thursday by payroll processing firm ADP.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Hiring totaled 978,000 for the month, up sharply from 654,000 in April and the biggest increase since June 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 680,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adam Button, head of forex strategy at Forexlive.com, said: \"Despite the downward revision of April data, this is a very strong report. The non-farm payroll data is volatile, but the most important thing at present is the trend, and it is clearly accelerating improvement.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 385,000 in the week ending May 29th, which continued to reach a new low since the week of March 14th last year. It also marks the first time since the early days of the pandemic that jobless claims have fallen below 400,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The two subsequent data released also performed brilliantly: the final PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 70.4 in May, which continued to hit a new high since records began; The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 64 in May, a record high.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In addition, there is also a message from the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed announced it will begin selling ETFs in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The New York Fed said it will begin the gradual sale of corporate bonds in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7, starting with the sale of ETFs. The sale of corporate bonds will be gradual. And will take into account the day-to-day liquidity and trading conditions of exchange-traded funds and corporate bonds to minimize any adverse effects on the functioning of the market. Additionally, it is planned to start selling SMCCF's corporate bond holdings this summer, with more details to be provided later before the sale begins.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The strong data made the market more worried that the Federal Reserve would start tapering its bond purchases earlier, and the dollar strengthened as a result. The the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose to 90.55.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">With the rise of the US dollar, spot gold fell below the four major barriers of 1900, 1890, 1880 and 1870 US dollars/ounce one after another, falling below 1,870 US dollars for the first time since May 21st, falling more than 40 US dollars from the daily high, with an intraday drop of 2%, the largest intraday drop since February; spot goods<span>Silver</span><span></span>It fell 3.4%, the biggest intraday decline since March.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"573,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/174/w573h401/20210606/9e73-kracxeq8533987.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading, said: \"The ADP data is much stronger than expected, suggesting that there will be a similar rebound in employment data tomorrow, which pushes the US dollar significantly higher and triggers a long liquidation of gold below $1,890. The support level of $1,850-60 is significant, and gold must maintain these levels.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Non-farm accident missed expectations, US dollar \"flying down\", 2 minutes turnover exceeded $1.3 billion, gold soared $28</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday (June 4th), the number of new jobs in May was disappointing again, with an increase of 559,000, lower than expected. Employment is expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"740,433\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/373/w740h433/20210606/0bb5-kracxeq8533988.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: U.S. Department of Labor, CNBC)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%, which was better than the 5.9% expected. Another measure of unemployment, which includes those working part-time for financial reasons, fell slightly to 10.2%.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the U.S. labor force participation rate also fell from 61.8% to 61.6% in May, and the index has remained in a narrow range of 61.4%-61.7% since June 2020. The labor force participation rate in May was 1.7 percentage points lower than in February 2020.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 14 cents (0.5%) to $25.60 in May. It was the latest rise following a 0.7pc rise in salaries in April.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In this regard, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that the non-farm payrolls report is positive, but it is still not enough to influence policy.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"I think there continues to be progress on the labor side, which is very good news. But I would like to see further progress,\" Mester said in an interview with CNBC.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, the US Dollar Index fell under pressure, falling over 50 points to a low of 90.02 in the short term.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said that the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report does not mean that the U.S. dollar will be under continued pressure, because the market will now pay attention to the U.S. May inflation data scheduled to be released next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">After the employment data was released, spot gold quickly rose by nearly $28 in the short term, reaching a daily high of $1,896.13, which was more than $40 higher than the daily low.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,395\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/170/w575h395/20210606/cb8d-kracxeq8534189.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"After the non-farm payroll numbers were slightly below expectations, we saw a modest rally in stocks…A lot of market watchers were looking for a bigger number, and when that didn't come, gold market bulls seemed relieved,\" said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The rally we're seeing today keeps the uptrend active on the gold market's daily chart, which is encouraging for the bulls,\" Wyckoff added.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Gold Outlook Next Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FXStreet's forecast survey shows a slightly bearish short-term outlook for analysts, with an average price target of $1,882 by the end of next week. Several experts are predicting a sharp pullback in gold below $1,800, with the average one-month price target now at $1,863.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Retail investors and Wall Street analysts remain bullish on gold prices next week, according to the latest weekly gold survey results released by Kitco News on Friday. However, bearish sentiment has started to rise, with some analysts warning that gold has topped $1,900 and the market appears to be overbought.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">This week, 16 analysts took part in Kitco's gold survey. Of these analysts, 11 (69%) said they were bullish on gold; At the same time, two analysts (13%) said they were bearish on the performance of gold next week; Three other analysts (19%) said they expected gold prices to move sideways. Meanwhile, a total of 10.23 million people participated in the online poll facing ordinary investors. Of these respondents, 552 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week; 301 respondents (29%) expect the price of gold to decline, and another 170 respondents (7%) hold flat expectations.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"661,437\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/298/w661h437/20210606/1f82-kracxeq8534188.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: Kitco)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">While momentum indicators in the gold market look slightly tight, some analysts say gold has potential for further gains. They said the fundamental outlook provides strong support for the current uptrend.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: \"The latest U.S. jobs report shows that fewer new jobs have been added than expected, while rising wages have heightened people's fears about inflation. Increased wages tend to be sticky, and new hiring figures suggest that wages may need to increase more to attract people back to work. This is bad for the dollar and good for gold.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Other analysts said the gold price crossed $1,900 in May, indicating strong market momentum. Last month, the gold market posted its biggest monthly gain since July last year.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"At the close of May, gold topped the key psychological level of $1,900/oz and remained on an upward trend despite a retreat on June 3,\" said John Feneck, founder of Feneck Consultants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Despite Thursday's sell-off, the gold market has been relatively stable in a strong uptrend and has managed to hold key support levels, said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">However, he added that he has a neutral view on gold as he expects the Fed will have to act on rising inflationary pressures. Gold may struggle to hold on to gains above $1,900, he said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The Fed can't control inflation. It's going to last longer than they expected. There is room for gold to go higher, but at some point, because of inflation, the Fed will at least reduce its bond purchases. It's going to turn the lights out of the gold party.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said the price of gold had rebounded strongly following the release of disappointing employment data in May.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"However, I'm more inclined to sell on further rallies,\" he said. \"The MACD indicator and the slow stochastic indicator are rolling, and I suspect what we're seeing so far is just the first wave of a possible three-wave pullback.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important data and events next week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">There will be no higher-level macroeconomic data release next Monday, and gold will likely continue to react to volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the technical range. Next Tuesday, the Eurozone first-quarter GDP data and Germany's ZEW survey data will appear in the European Economic Report. Although these data are unlikely to have a direct impact on gold valuations, large movements in EUR/USD could affect USD demand.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will meet next week, and the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged after reducing its asset purchases in April. With them likely to scale back their asset purchases again in the third quarter, their outlook may not be as dovish as other central banks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Thursday, U.S. jobless claims are likely to be overlooked by market participants, who will be eyeing the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In April, CPI rose to 4.2% from 2.6% in March, and gold fell more than 1% on the day of the data, again demonstrating gold's sensitivity to inflation data and suggesting that CPI surprises could weigh on gold and vice versa.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist of the group, said: \"We expect the consumer price index to rise by 4.8% in May compared with the same period last year, and the core price (excluding food and energy prices) to rise from 3% to 3.3%. For the former, this will be the highest inflation level since 2008 (when oil prices soared to $146/barrel), while for the core inflation rate, it will be the highest level since 1993!\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The general consensus is that the more disappointing macroeconomic data is, the better gold is,\" said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities. \"But in terms of CPI, it's good for gold if inflation is stronger.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision and issue a monetary policy statement. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said strong policy support would continue to provide a bridge to weather the pandemic and drive economic recovery. Market participants will be looking for clues about possible changes to the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Programme (PEPP). The ECB's hawkish stance is likely to hurt the dollar, while its dovish stance is unlikely to provide a strong boost to the dollar, as it won't be a big surprise to market participants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">By the end of next week, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer confidence index for June.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important economic data and events next week:</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Monday (June 7)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's May Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's foreign exchange reserves in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German manufacturing orders in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Holiday Preview: New Zealand Queen's Birthday Holiday Closed</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Tuesday (June 8)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's first quarter GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone Q1 GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Wednesday (June 9)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US Last Week API<span>crude oil</span><span></span>Change in inventory</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's ex-factory price index of industrial products in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China Consumer Goods Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Germany Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada Overnight Target Rate</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes last week</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: EIA Announces Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: Bank of Canada Unveils Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Thursday (June 10)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan Domestic Corporate Commodity Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">EurozoneEuropean Central BankRefinancing Rates</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US May Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: OPEC Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Friday (June 11)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK industrial output in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK April trade balance of goods</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: 46th G7 Summit to June 13</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">IEA Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Golden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGolden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 14:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Original title: Golden Weekly Review: Too exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FX168 Financial News (North America) News In the past week, affected by economic data including non-farm payrolls report and news about the trend of the Federal Reserve, the financial market fluctuated drastically, and spot gold also ups and downs. Gold started the week with light trading in consolidation due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States. On Tuesday,<span>Gold price</span><span></span>climbed to $1,916, its highest level since early January, but ended lower. While buyers continued to hold on to $1,900 on Wednesday, the dollar's resumption of rally led to gold recording its biggest one-day percentage drop in three months on Thursday. During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 4th), the price of gold continued to slide, reaching the lowest level of $1,856 in more than two weeks. Disappointing labor market data in the US triggered a pre-weekend rally, though, with gold closing around $1,890, snapping a four-week rally.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Friday, spot gold closed at $1,891.03/oz, up sharply by $20.67 or 1.11%. It once hit the lowest level of $1,855.06/oz since May 19th, but then rose strongly and refreshed to a daily high of $1,896.13/oz. For the week, spot gold is down $12.62 or 0.66%.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"572,396\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/168/w572h396/20210606/c208-kracxeq7415210.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold daily trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">COMEX August gold futures closed down 1.9% at $1,873.30/oz, a new closing low in the last two weeks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Looking forward to next week, the most noteworthy thing is the U.S. CPI data next Thursday. The last CPI data was less than expected, which once caused gold to plummet, so the market will pay close attention to this data next week. The United States will also announce the number of initial jobless claims next Thursday. In addition, the market will also be closely watching the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision scheduled to be announced next Wednesday and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Highlights of the Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Economic Data Frequently Get Good News US Dollar and Gold Diving Hand in Hand</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Tuesday (June 1st), data released by the United States showed that the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The final manufacturing PMI was 62.1. Some commentators pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing sector performed well in the second quarter, with the PMI hitting a new high for the second consecutive month in May. New order inflows are climbing at the highest pace in 14-year survey history, driven by recovering domestic demand and record export sales.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Another data released later showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 in May, with both the expected and previous values at 60.7. According to some institutions, manufacturing activity in the United States picked up in May, and pent-up demand due to the reopening of the economy boosted orders, but there is still a lot of unfinished work due to shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"This data indicates that the overall economy has expanded for 12 consecutive months after the contraction in April 2020,\" the report said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The dollar weakened and approached a five-month low after data showed shortages of raw materials and labor led to more unfinished work despite a pick-up in U.S. manufacturing activity last month.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">the US Dollar Index fell 25 points in the short term, refreshing its daily low to 89.66, and once rose to 90.45 last Friday, when the US inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve recorded its biggest annual increase since 1992.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As the dollar fell, the price of gold fell sharply from its nearly five-month high earlier, as strong U.S. manufacturing data and higher U.S. bond yields weakened its appeal.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In the U.S. market, spot gold fell sharply below the 1900 mark in the short term, and reached a daily low of $1,892.26/oz, down $24 from the daily high.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/176/w575h401/20210606/dff3-kracxeq8533819.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"Gold has seen a slight pullback as U.S. stocks continue to rise and U.S. Treasury Bond yields start to move higher,\" said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">He added that investors may think that the Fed's policy of tapering bond purchases will be faster than expected.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">US economic data, the Federal Reserve continued to send heavy news, the US dollar \"one pillar holds the sky\" and the gold \"cliff falls\"</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Thursday (June 3rd), the latest series of economic data released by the United States showed strong performance. Private sector employment grew at its fastest pace in nearly a year in May, with businesses hiring nearly 1 million people, according to a report released Thursday by payroll processing firm ADP.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Hiring totaled 978,000 for the month, up sharply from 654,000 in April and the biggest increase since June 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 680,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adam Button, head of forex strategy at Forexlive.com, said: \"Despite the downward revision of April data, this is a very strong report. The non-farm payroll data is volatile, but the most important thing at present is the trend, and it is clearly accelerating improvement.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 385,000 in the week ending May 29th, which continued to reach a new low since the week of March 14th last year. It also marks the first time since the early days of the pandemic that jobless claims have fallen below 400,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The two subsequent data released also performed brilliantly: the final PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 70.4 in May, which continued to hit a new high since records began; The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 64 in May, a record high.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In addition, there is also a message from the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed announced it will begin selling ETFs in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The New York Fed said it will begin the gradual sale of corporate bonds in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7, starting with the sale of ETFs. The sale of corporate bonds will be gradual. And will take into account the day-to-day liquidity and trading conditions of exchange-traded funds and corporate bonds to minimize any adverse effects on the functioning of the market. Additionally, it is planned to start selling SMCCF's corporate bond holdings this summer, with more details to be provided later before the sale begins.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The strong data made the market more worried that the Federal Reserve would start tapering its bond purchases earlier, and the dollar strengthened as a result. The the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose to 90.55.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">With the rise of the US dollar, spot gold fell below the four major barriers of 1900, 1890, 1880 and 1870 US dollars/ounce one after another, falling below 1,870 US dollars for the first time since May 21st, falling more than 40 US dollars from the daily high, with an intraday drop of 2%, the largest intraday drop since February; spot goods<span>Silver</span><span></span>It fell 3.4%, the biggest intraday decline since March.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"573,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/174/w573h401/20210606/9e73-kracxeq8533987.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading, said: \"The ADP data is much stronger than expected, suggesting that there will be a similar rebound in employment data tomorrow, which pushes the US dollar significantly higher and triggers a long liquidation of gold below $1,890. The support level of $1,850-60 is significant, and gold must maintain these levels.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Non-farm accident missed expectations, US dollar \"flying down\", 2 minutes turnover exceeded $1.3 billion, gold soared $28</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday (June 4th), the number of new jobs in May was disappointing again, with an increase of 559,000, lower than expected. Employment is expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"740,433\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/373/w740h433/20210606/0bb5-kracxeq8533988.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: U.S. Department of Labor, CNBC)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%, which was better than the 5.9% expected. Another measure of unemployment, which includes those working part-time for financial reasons, fell slightly to 10.2%.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the U.S. labor force participation rate also fell from 61.8% to 61.6% in May, and the index has remained in a narrow range of 61.4%-61.7% since June 2020. The labor force participation rate in May was 1.7 percentage points lower than in February 2020.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 14 cents (0.5%) to $25.60 in May. It was the latest rise following a 0.7pc rise in salaries in April.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In this regard, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that the non-farm payrolls report is positive, but it is still not enough to influence policy.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"I think there continues to be progress on the labor side, which is very good news. But I would like to see further progress,\" Mester said in an interview with CNBC.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, the US Dollar Index fell under pressure, falling over 50 points to a low of 90.02 in the short term.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said that the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report does not mean that the U.S. dollar will be under continued pressure, because the market will now pay attention to the U.S. May inflation data scheduled to be released next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">After the employment data was released, spot gold quickly rose by nearly $28 in the short term, reaching a daily high of $1,896.13, which was more than $40 higher than the daily low.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,395\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/170/w575h395/20210606/cb8d-kracxeq8534189.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"After the non-farm payroll numbers were slightly below expectations, we saw a modest rally in stocks…A lot of market watchers were looking for a bigger number, and when that didn't come, gold market bulls seemed relieved,\" said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The rally we're seeing today keeps the uptrend active on the gold market's daily chart, which is encouraging for the bulls,\" Wyckoff added.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Gold Outlook Next Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FXStreet's forecast survey shows a slightly bearish short-term outlook for analysts, with an average price target of $1,882 by the end of next week. Several experts are predicting a sharp pullback in gold below $1,800, with the average one-month price target now at $1,863.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Retail investors and Wall Street analysts remain bullish on gold prices next week, according to the latest weekly gold survey results released by Kitco News on Friday. However, bearish sentiment has started to rise, with some analysts warning that gold has topped $1,900 and the market appears to be overbought.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">This week, 16 analysts took part in Kitco's gold survey. Of these analysts, 11 (69%) said they were bullish on gold; At the same time, two analysts (13%) said they were bearish on the performance of gold next week; Three other analysts (19%) said they expected gold prices to move sideways. Meanwhile, a total of 10.23 million people participated in the online poll facing ordinary investors. Of these respondents, 552 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week; 301 respondents (29%) expect the price of gold to decline, and another 170 respondents (7%) hold flat expectations.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"661,437\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/298/w661h437/20210606/1f82-kracxeq8534188.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: Kitco)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">While momentum indicators in the gold market look slightly tight, some analysts say gold has potential for further gains. They said the fundamental outlook provides strong support for the current uptrend.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: \"The latest U.S. jobs report shows that fewer new jobs have been added than expected, while rising wages have heightened people's fears about inflation. Increased wages tend to be sticky, and new hiring figures suggest that wages may need to increase more to attract people back to work. This is bad for the dollar and good for gold.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Other analysts said the gold price crossed $1,900 in May, indicating strong market momentum. Last month, the gold market posted its biggest monthly gain since July last year.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"At the close of May, gold topped the key psychological level of $1,900/oz and remained on an upward trend despite a retreat on June 3,\" said John Feneck, founder of Feneck Consultants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Despite Thursday's sell-off, the gold market has been relatively stable in a strong uptrend and has managed to hold key support levels, said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">However, he added that he has a neutral view on gold as he expects the Fed will have to act on rising inflationary pressures. Gold may struggle to hold on to gains above $1,900, he said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The Fed can't control inflation. It's going to last longer than they expected. There is room for gold to go higher, but at some point, because of inflation, the Fed will at least reduce its bond purchases. It's going to turn the lights out of the gold party.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said the price of gold had rebounded strongly following the release of disappointing employment data in May.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"However, I'm more inclined to sell on further rallies,\" he said. \"The MACD indicator and the slow stochastic indicator are rolling, and I suspect what we're seeing so far is just the first wave of a possible three-wave pullback.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important data and events next week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">There will be no higher-level macroeconomic data release next Monday, and gold will likely continue to react to volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the technical range. Next Tuesday, the Eurozone first-quarter GDP data and Germany's ZEW survey data will appear in the European Economic Report. Although these data are unlikely to have a direct impact on gold valuations, large movements in EUR/USD could affect USD demand.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will meet next week, and the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged after reducing its asset purchases in April. With them likely to scale back their asset purchases again in the third quarter, their outlook may not be as dovish as other central banks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Thursday, U.S. jobless claims are likely to be overlooked by market participants, who will be eyeing the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In April, CPI rose to 4.2% from 2.6% in March, and gold fell more than 1% on the day of the data, again demonstrating gold's sensitivity to inflation data and suggesting that CPI surprises could weigh on gold and vice versa.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist of the group, said: \"We expect the consumer price index to rise by 4.8% in May compared with the same period last year, and the core price (excluding food and energy prices) to rise from 3% to 3.3%. For the former, this will be the highest inflation level since 2008 (when oil prices soared to $146/barrel), while for the core inflation rate, it will be the highest level since 1993!\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The general consensus is that the more disappointing macroeconomic data is, the better gold is,\" said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities. \"But in terms of CPI, it's good for gold if inflation is stronger.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision and issue a monetary policy statement. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said strong policy support would continue to provide a bridge to weather the pandemic and drive economic recovery. Market participants will be looking for clues about possible changes to the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Programme (PEPP). The ECB's hawkish stance is likely to hurt the dollar, while its dovish stance is unlikely to provide a strong boost to the dollar, as it won't be a big surprise to market participants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">By the end of next week, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer confidence index for June.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important economic data and events next week:</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Monday (June 7)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's May Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's foreign exchange reserves in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German manufacturing orders in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Holiday Preview: New Zealand Queen's Birthday Holiday Closed</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Tuesday (June 8)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's first quarter GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone Q1 GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Wednesday (June 9)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US Last Week API<span>crude oil</span><span></span>Change in inventory</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's ex-factory price index of industrial products in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China Consumer Goods Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Germany Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada Overnight Target Rate</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes last week</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: EIA Announces Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: Bank of Canada Unveils Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Thursday (June 10)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan Domestic Corporate Commodity Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">EurozoneEuropean Central BankRefinancing Rates</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US May Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: OPEC Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Friday (June 11)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK industrial output in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK April trade balance of goods</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: 46th G7 Summit to June 13</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">IEA Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi8024832.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi8024832.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2141285221","content_text":"原标题：黄金周评：太刺激！“超级周”黄金踏上“惊险之旅” 下周这一事件恐再掀起市场巨澜FX168财经报社(北美)讯 过去一周，受包括非农就业报告等经济数据以及有关美联储动向消息的影响，金融市场波动剧烈，现货黄金也随之跌宕起伏。本周伊始，由于美国阵亡将士纪念日假期的影响，黄金交投清淡处于盘整状态。周二，金价攀升至1月初以来最高水平1916美元，但最终收跌。尽管周三买家继续守住1900美元，但美元重拾升势导致黄金在周四录得3个月来最大单日百分比跌幅。在周五(6月4日)的亚洲交易时段，金价继续下滑，达到了两周多以来的最低水平1856美元。不过，美国令人失望的劳动力市场数据引发了周末前的反弹，金价收于1890美元左右，结束了连续四周的涨势。周五，现货黄金收报1891.03美元/盎司，大幅上涨20.67美元或1.11%，盘中一度触及5月19日以来最低水平1855.06美元/盎司，但随后强势上涨并刷新日高至1896.13美元/盎司。本周，现货黄金下跌12.62美元或0.66%。（现货黄金日线走势图，来源：FX168）COMEX 8月黄金期货收跌1.9%，报1873.30美元/盎司，创最近两周收盘新低。展望下周，最值得关注的是下周四的美国CPI数据，上次CPI数据不及预期一度导致黄金大跌，因此市场下周将密切关注这一数据。美国还将于下周四公布初请失业金人数。此外，市场也将密切关注加拿大央行定于下周三宣布的利率决议以及欧洲央行下周四的利率决定。一周要闻盘点经济数据频传捷报 美元和黄金携手跳水周二(6月1日)，美公布的数据显示，美国5月Markit制造业PMI终值为62.1。有评论指出，美国制造业第二季度表现良好，5月份PMI连续第二个月创下新高。受国内需求复苏和出口销售创纪录的推动，新订单流入正以14年调查历史上最高的速度攀升。随后公布的另一项数据显示，美国5月ISM制造业PMI升至61.2，预期和前值都为60.7。有机构称，美国5月制造业活动回升，因经济重新开放而被压抑的需求提振了订单，但原材料和劳动力短缺导致未完成的工作还有很多。报告称:“这一数据表明，在2020年4月出现收缩后，整体经济连续12个月出现扩张。”在数据显示，尽管美国制造业活动上月有所回升，但原材料和劳动力短缺导致未完成工作增多之后，美元走软，逼近五个月低点。美元指数短线下跌25点，刷新日低至89.66，上周五一度升至90.45，当日美联储密切关注的美国通胀指标录得1992年以来最大年度升幅。在美元下跌之际，金价自稍早触及的近五个月高位大幅下跌，因强劲的美国制造业数据和美债收益率走高削弱了其吸引力。美市盘中，现货黄金短线急跌下破1900关口，并刷新日低至1892.26美元/盎司，较日高跌去24美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）“随着美国股市继续上涨，美国国债收益率开始走高，金价出现了小幅回落，”蓝线期货首席市场策略师Phillip Streible表示。他补充称，投资者可能认为美联储缩减购债规模政策的速度将快于预期。美经济数据、美联储连传重磅消息 美元“一柱擎天”黄金“断崖下跌”周四(6月3日)，美国最新公布的一连串经济数据表现强劲。据薪资处理公司ADP周四发布的报告，5月份私营部门就业增长速度达到近一年来的最快速度，企业雇佣了近100万名员工。当月招聘总数达到97.8万人，较4月份的65.4万人大幅上升，创下自2020年6月以来的最大增幅。接受道琼斯调查的经济学家原本预期将增加68万。Forexlive.com外汇策略主管Adam Button表示:“尽管4月份的数据向下修正，但这是一份非常强劲的报告。非农就业数据不稳定，但目前最重要的是趋势，而且明显在加速改善。”与此同时，美国至5月29日当周初请失业金人数录得38.5万人，续刷去年3月14日当周以来新低。它还标志着自疫情爆发初期以来，初请失业金人数首次降至40万人以下。随后公布的两项数据也表现靓丽：美国5月Markit服务业PMI终值录得70.4，续创有记录以来新高；美国5月ISM非制造业PMI录得64，创有记录以来新高。此外，美联储方面也传来了一则消息。纽约联储宣布将于6月7日开始出售二级市场企业信贷便利(SMCCF)工具中的ETF。纽约联储称，将于6月7日开始逐步出售二级市场企业信贷便利（SMCCF）工具中的企业债，将从出售ETF开始。企业债的出售将是循序渐进的。并将考虑到交易所交易基金和公司债券的日常流动性和交易条件，以最大限度地减少对市场运作的任何不利影响。此外，计划今年夏天开始出售SMCCF所持公司债券，更多细节将在发售开始前晚些时候提供。强劲数据令市场更加担心美联储会更早开始缩减购债规模，美元因此走强。衡量美元兑一篮子六种货币汇率的美元指数升至90.55。随着美元上扬，现货黄金接连跌破1900、1890、1880、1870美元/盎司等四大关口，为5月21日以来首次跌破1870美元，较日高大跌逾40美元，日内跌幅高达2%，创下2月以来的盘中最大跌幅；现货白银跌3.4%，为3月以来盘中最大跌幅。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）蒙特利尔银行金属衍生品交易主管Tai Wong表示:“ADP数据远强于预期，暗示明日就业数据也将出现类似的反弹，这推动美元明显走高，并引发黄金在1890美元下方的多头清算。1850-60美元的支撑位意义重大，黄金必须维持住这些水平。”非农意外不及预期 美元“飞流直下”、2分钟成交逾13亿美元黄金狂飙28美元美国劳工部周五(6月4日)公布的数据显示，5月新增就业人数再次令人失望，增长55.9万人，低于预期。据道琼斯调查的经济学家称，预计就业人数将增加67.1万人。（来源：美国劳工部、CNBC）失业率从6.1%下降到5.8%，比预期的5.9%要好。另一项衡量失业率的指标则小幅降至10.2%，该指标包括那些因经济原因而从事兼职工作的人。与此同时，美国劳动力参与率也从61.8%降至5月的61.6%，该指数自2020年6月以来一直保持在61.4%-61.7%的窄幅区间内。5月的劳动力参与率比2020年2月低1.7个百分点。此外，5月份平均时薪增加了14美分(0.5%)至25.60美元。这是继4月份薪资上涨0.7%之后的最新一次上涨。对此，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示，非农就业报告是正面的，但仍不足以影响政策。“我认为劳工方面继续取得进展，这是非常好的消息。但我希望看到进一步的进展，”梅斯特在接受CNBC采访时说。由于非农就业数据不及预期，美元指数承压下跌，短线下滑超50点至90.02低点。法国农业信贷银行策略师Manuel Oliveri称，美国就业报告弱于预期并不意味着美元将面临持续的压力，因为市场目前将关注定于下周四公布的美国5月通胀数据。就业数据公布后，现货黄金短线短线迅速拉升近28美元，刷新日高至1896.13美元，较日低则高出逾40美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）“在非农就业数据略低于预期之后，我们看到股市出现温和反弹……很多市场观察人士都在寻求一个更大的数字，当这一数字没有出现时，黄金市场多头似乎松了一口气，”Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示。“我们今天看到的反弹使黄金市场日线图上的上行趋势保持活跃，这对多头来说是鼓舞人心的，”Wyckoff补充道。下周黄金展望FXStreet的预测调查显示，分析师的短期前景略微看跌，下周结束前的平均目标价为1882美元。几位专家预测，金价将大幅回调至1800美元下方，一个月平均目标价目前为1863美元。Kitco News周五最新公布的黄金周度调查结果显示，散户投资者和华尔街分析师仍看好下周的金价。然而，看跌情绪已开始上升，一些分析师警告称，金价已突破1900美元，市场似乎处于超买状态。本周，16位分析师参加了Kitco的黄金调查。在这些分析师中，有11位(占69%)表示看涨黄金；与此同时，有两位分析师(占13%)表示，看空黄金的下周表现；另外3位分析师(占19%)说，他们预计金价将呈横向走势。与此同时，共有1023万人次参加了面对普通投资者的网上投票。在这些受访者中，有552人(占54%)预计金价下周将上涨；301名受访者(占29%)预计金价将下滑，另有170名受访者(占7%)持看平预期。（来源：Kitco）尽管黄金市场的动能指标看起来有些紧张，但一些分析师表示，黄金有进一步上涨的潜力。他们表示，基本面前景为当前的上行趋势提供了强有力的支撑。Adrian Day Asset Management总裁Adrian Day表示:“最新的美国就业报告显示，新增就业岗位少于预期，而工资水平上升，加剧了人们对通胀的担忧。增加的工资往往具有粘性，新的雇佣数字表明，工资可能需要增加更多才能吸引人们重返工作岗位。这对美元不利，对黄金有利。”其他分析师表示，5月金价突破1900美元，表明市场动能强劲。上个月，黄金市场创下自去年7月份以来的最大月度涨幅。“5月收盘时，金价突破1900美元/盎司的关键心理水准，尽管6月3日有所回落，但仍处于上行趋势，”Feneck Consultants创始人John Feneck表示。Phoenix Futures and Options总裁Kevin Grady表示，尽管周四出现抛售，但黄金市场在强劲上升趋势中相对稳定，并成功守住了关键支撑位。不过，他补充称，他对黄金持中性看法，因为他预计美联储将不得不对通胀压力上升采取行动。他说，金价可能很难守住1900美元以上的涨幅。“美联储无法控制通货膨胀。这将比他们预期的更持久。黄金有走高的空间，但在某个时候，由于通货膨胀，美联储将至少减少债券购买。它会把黄金派对的灯都关掉。”Bannockburn Global Forex董事总经理Marc Chandler表示，在5月份令人失望的就业数据发布后，金价出现了强劲反弹。“不过，我更倾向于在进一步反弹时卖出，”他表示。“MACD指标和缓慢随机指标正在滚动，我怀疑我们目前所看到的，只是可能的三波回调的第一波。”下周重要数据和事件下周一不会有更高层次的宏观经济数据发布，黄金可能会继续在技术范围内对美国国债收益率的波动做出反应。下周二，欧元区第一季度GDP数据和德国ZEW调查数据将出现在欧洲经济报告中。尽管这些数据不太可能对黄金估值产生直接影响，但欧元/美元的大幅波动可能会影响美元需求。下周三，加拿大央行将于下周召开会议，市场普遍预期该央行将在4月减少资产购买后维持政策不变。由于它们可能在第三季度再次缩减资产购买规模，它们的前景可能不如其他央行那么鸽派。下周四，美国初请失业金人数可能会被市场参与者忽略，他们将关注5月消费者价格指数(CPI)数据。4月份，CPI从3月份的2.6%上升至4.2%，黄金在数据发布当天下跌了超过1%，这再次表明了黄金对通胀数据的敏感性，并表明CPI的惊喜可能会给黄金带来压力，反之亦然。荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家James Knightley说:“我们预计5月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上升4.8%，核心价格(不包括食品和能源价格)由3%上升至3.3%。就前者而言，这将是2008年以来的最高通胀水平(当时油价飙升至146美元/桶)，而就核心通胀率而言，这将是1993年以来的最高水平！”“普遍共识是，宏观经济数据越是令人失望，黄金就越好，”道明证券全球策略主管Bart Melek称。“但就CPI而言，如果通胀走强，这对黄金有利。”与此同时，欧洲央行将宣布其利率决定，并发布货币政策声明。本周早些时候，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，强有力的政策支持将继续为渡过大流行并推动经济复苏提供桥梁。市场参与者将寻找有关大流行紧急采购方案(PEPP)可能变化的线索。欧洲央行的鹰派立场可能损及美元，而鸽派立场不太可能对美元提供强劲提振，因为对市场参与者来说，这不会是一个很大的意外。下周末之前，密歇根大学将发布6月份消费者信心指数初值。下周重要经济数据和事件：周一（6月7日）中国5月贸易帐日本5月外汇储备德国4月制造业订单欧元区6月Sentix投资者信心指数假日预告：新西兰女王诞辰日假期休市周二（6月8日）日本第一季度GDP欧元区第一季度GDP德国6月ZEW经济景气指数加拿大4月贸易帐美国4月贸易帐周三（6月9日）美国上周API原油库存变化中国5月工业品出厂价格指数中国5月居民消费品价格指数德国4月季调后贸易帐加拿大隔夜目标利率美国上周EIA原油库存变化财经事件：EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告央行动态：加拿大央行公布利率决议周四（6月10日）日本5月国内企业商品物价指数欧元区欧洲央行再融资利率美国5月未季调消费者物价指数财经事件：欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告央行动态：欧洲央行公布利率决议欧洲央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会周五（6月11日）英国4月工业产出英国4月商品贸易帐美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值财经事件：第46届G7峰会举行，至6月13日IEA公布月度原油市场报告\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"GCmain":1,"GLD":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115871977,"gmtCreate":1622978802199,"gmtModify":1704194017977,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115871977","repostId":"2141233286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115873409,"gmtCreate":1622978752401,"gmtModify":1704194017171,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115873409","repostId":"2141286885","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141286885","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622966528,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141286885?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 16:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"European and American stock markets in danger? Morgan Stanley Market Indicators Fully Send Sell Signals!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141286885","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在过去的几个月里，摩根士丹利的基本面分析师对股市的看法越来越悲观。\n本周早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson表示，对于美股，目前市场过于乐观，但收益却不高，悲观情绪蔓延。Wi","content":"<p>In the last few months,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Fundamental analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the stock market.</p><p>Earlier this week, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said,<b>For U.S. Stocks</b>At present, the market is too optimistic, but the income is not high, and pessimism spreads. At the same time, Wilson believes that the current forward P/E of the market is too high and will decline in the future. \"From now on, the valuation will drop by 15%, and the profit correction can't offset the future killing valuation. The whole market will have a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72ac2b1254473a56a44d443d5b0af2e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Wilson belongs to one of Wall Street's most pessimistic analysts. And his bearish sentiment on fundamentals has spread to the investment bank's team of technical analysts.</p><p>As Matthew Garman, the bank's chief euro equity strategist, writes,<b>For European stocks</b>, not only the fundamentals deteriorated, each of Morgan Stanley's five technical market timing indicators gave a sell signal, which has happened for the fifth time in the last 30+ years.</p><p>Not only that, but the bank's composite market timing indicator, which has been giving a sell signal since March, just hit an all-time high of 1.19, surpassing the record high set in June 2007, which was timed just before the U.S. stock crash.</p><p>According to Garman, the only time the stock market rallied after this sell signal occurred was on February 17, 2017, and the other times before \"this sell signal occurred were March 1990, May 1992, and June 2007. In the six months following this signal, the MSCI Europe Index fell by an average of 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c5ad156b3885ff11dc842d79da75705\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So every internal risk indicator is prompting a sell, does that mean Morgan Stanley will have the courage to tell its customers to sell? It turns out not necessarily, because there are so many unusual companies like AMC, GameStop, and Bed Bath in this market, and so many unusual events in the capital markets that it seriously upsets the judgment of analysts.</p><p>Moreover, some analysts at Morgan Stanley are assuming that the current situation is similar to that in 2017-this is the only time that the indicator signal is wrong.</p><p>In terms of market style and industry sectors, Morgan Stanley believes that defensive stocks may have little impact after the selling signal is sent, while cyclical stocks will suffer heavily. After all, within six months after the selling signal occurs, the average performance of cyclical stocks is 12% lower than that of defensive stocks, even when they rose in 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9618b756a6aed053f89c0eff76d963\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>European and American stock markets in danger? Morgan Stanley Market Indicators Fully Send Sell Signals!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEuropean and American stock markets in danger? Morgan Stanley Market Indicators Fully Send Sell Signals!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 16:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the last few months,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Fundamental analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the stock market.</p><p>Earlier this week, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said,<b>For U.S. Stocks</b>At present, the market is too optimistic, but the income is not high, and pessimism spreads. At the same time, Wilson believes that the current forward P/E of the market is too high and will decline in the future. \"From now on, the valuation will drop by 15%, and the profit correction can't offset the future killing valuation. The whole market will have a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72ac2b1254473a56a44d443d5b0af2e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Wilson belongs to one of Wall Street's most pessimistic analysts. And his bearish sentiment on fundamentals has spread to the investment bank's team of technical analysts.</p><p>As Matthew Garman, the bank's chief euro equity strategist, writes,<b>For European stocks</b>, not only the fundamentals deteriorated, each of Morgan Stanley's five technical market timing indicators gave a sell signal, which has happened for the fifth time in the last 30+ years.</p><p>Not only that, but the bank's composite market timing indicator, which has been giving a sell signal since March, just hit an all-time high of 1.19, surpassing the record high set in June 2007, which was timed just before the U.S. stock crash.</p><p>According to Garman, the only time the stock market rallied after this sell signal occurred was on February 17, 2017, and the other times before \"this sell signal occurred were March 1990, May 1992, and June 2007. In the six months following this signal, the MSCI Europe Index fell by an average of 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c5ad156b3885ff11dc842d79da75705\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So every internal risk indicator is prompting a sell, does that mean Morgan Stanley will have the courage to tell its customers to sell? It turns out not necessarily, because there are so many unusual companies like AMC, GameStop, and Bed Bath in this market, and so many unusual events in the capital markets that it seriously upsets the judgment of analysts.</p><p>Moreover, some analysts at Morgan Stanley are assuming that the current situation is similar to that in 2017-this is the only time that the indicator signal is wrong.</p><p>In terms of market style and industry sectors, Morgan Stanley believes that defensive stocks may have little impact after the selling signal is sent, while cyclical stocks will suffer heavily. After all, within six months after the selling signal occurs, the average performance of cyclical stocks is 12% lower than that of defensive stocks, even when they rose in 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9618b756a6aed053f89c0eff76d963\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632247\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632247","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141286885","content_text":"在过去的几个月里，摩根士丹利的基本面分析师对股市的看法越来越悲观。\n本周早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson表示，对于美股，目前市场过于乐观，但收益却不高，悲观情绪蔓延。Wilson同时认为，目前市场远期市盈率太高，未来会下滑，“从现在开始，估值将下降15%，而盈利修正也无法抵消未来的杀估值，整个市场在接下来的6个月中会有10-15%的修正。\n\n目前，Wilson属于华尔街最悲观的分析师之一。并且他对基本面的看跌情绪已经蔓延到该投行的技术分析师团队中。\n正如该银行首席欧元股票策略师Matthew Garman所写的那样，对于欧股，不仅是基本面恶化，摩根士丹利的五个技术面市场时机指标中的每一个都给出了卖出信号，这在过去30多年来第五次发生。\n不仅如此，该银行的综合市场时机指标自3月以来一直给出了卖出信号，该指标刚刚创下1.19的历史新高，超过了2007年6月创下的历史新高，而后者的时机正处于美股崩盘之前。\n根据Garman的说法，在该卖出信号发生之后，股市唯一一次上涨是在2017年2月17日，之前出现“该卖出信号的其他时间是1990年3月、1992年5月和2007年6月。在该信号发布后的6个月中，MSCI欧洲指数平均下跌了6%。\n\n因此，每个内部风险指标都在提示卖出，这是否意味着摩根士丹利将有勇气告诉其客户卖出？事实证明并不一定，因为在这个市场上，像AMC、GameStop和Bed Bath这样的不寻常公司太多，资本市场上不寻常的事件也太多，这严重扰乱了分析师们的判断力。\n并且，摩根士丹利有分析师正在假设目前的情况和2017年相似——这是唯一一次指标信号判断错误的状况。\n在市场风格和行业板块上，摩根士丹利认为，防御股可能会在卖出信号发出后影响不大，而周期股则会遭受重创，毕竟在卖出信号发生后的6个月内，周期股的平均表现比防御股低12%，即便在2017年上涨时也是如此。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110268807,"gmtCreate":1622460892309,"gmtModify":1704184725382,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110268807","repostId":"1155355296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155355296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622458563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155355296?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 18:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The outlook of rate hike rattles stocks, June off-season for U.S. stocks on the horizon?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155355296","media":"36氪","summary":"美股5月表现好坏参半。\n标普500指数上涨0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨1.9%。小型股罗素2000指数持平，上涨0.1%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌1.5%。根据Bespoke的数据，在过去20年里，","content":"<p>U.S. stocks performed mixed in May.</p><p>The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Dow rose 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was flat, up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5%. According to Bespoke,<b>June has been weaker over the past 20 years, with an average decline of 0.7% and only 40% of the years gaining.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67d3523bd7e9d951b1b29875bdc6376\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source: CNBC.</p><p>What's key for markets right now is whether the Fed is starting to believe that inflation is higher than expected, or that the economy is strong enough to make progress without so much monetary support. Fed officials emphasized that they would keep their policies loose to watch for signs of a real economic recovery. They also argue that higher inflation figures are temporary, and that if inflation is too high, the Fed's main weapon is to raise interest rates.</p><p><b>The outlook for rate hike is rattling stocks, which will mean higher costs and less liquidity for businesses. In theory, higher interest rates also mean that investors are likely to opt for higher-yielding bond investments over stocks.</b></p><p>But Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, after all, the spread of COVID vaccines has laid the groundwork for an economic recovery this summer. According to CNBC, Wall Street analysts are fine-tuning their investment recommendations as May draws to a close, and here are the stocks favored by Wall Street analysts:</p><p><b>Advanced Micro Semiconductor Corporation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>）</b></p><p>AMD Semiconductor specializes in designing and manufacturing a variety of innovative microprocessors for the computer, communications, and consumer electronics industries, as well as providing flash memory and low-power processor solutions.</p><p>Gus Richard, an analyst at Northland Capital, said he was infinitely bullish on the company, reiterating a \"buy\" rating on the company and setting a price target of $116. Richard believes that the demand growth rate of personal computers may decline in the second quarter, but AMD's high-quality products are grabbing Intel's market share, so there is no need to worry too much about the decline in terminal demand. In the next five years, he said, AMD will expand its market share in the personal computer market from 20 percent today to 50 percent.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMED\">Amis Medical</a></b></p><p>Amis Medical is one of the largest providers of home medical care services and hospice services in the United States. Michael Wiederhorn, an analyst at Oppenheimer, said the company is still on the high road of growth, so he kept a \"buy\" rating on the company and set a price target of $325.</p><p><b>Deere & Co.</b></p><p>Deere Corporation is a leading global manufacturer of construction machinery, agricultural machinery and lawn machinery equipment. Stephen Volkmann, an analyst at Jefferies, reiterated a \"buy\" rating on the company, while he raised his price target to $450 from $400. Volkmann forecasts Deere to generate $55 billion in revenue this year and a 20% EBIT margin. At the same time, according to Deere management team, in 2021, the sales target will be raised from 23.5% increase to 28.5% increase.</p><p><b>Zscaler</b></p><p>Zscaler is an American cybersecurity company that provides cloud security services. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, maintained a \"buy\" rating on the company with a price target of $240.</p><p><b>AtriCure</b></p><p>AtriCure offers products related to the treatment of atrial fibrillation. Marie Thibault, an analyst at BTIG, said she was optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, reiterating the company's \"buy\" rating and $76 price target.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The outlook of rate hike rattles stocks, June off-season for U.S. stocks on the horizon?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe outlook of rate hike rattles stocks, June off-season for U.S. stocks on the horizon?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 18:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks performed mixed in May.</p><p>The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Dow rose 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was flat, up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5%. According to Bespoke,<b>June has been weaker over the past 20 years, with an average decline of 0.7% and only 40% of the years gaining.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67d3523bd7e9d951b1b29875bdc6376\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source: CNBC.</p><p>What's key for markets right now is whether the Fed is starting to believe that inflation is higher than expected, or that the economy is strong enough to make progress without so much monetary support. Fed officials emphasized that they would keep their policies loose to watch for signs of a real economic recovery. They also argue that higher inflation figures are temporary, and that if inflation is too high, the Fed's main weapon is to raise interest rates.</p><p><b>The outlook for rate hike is rattling stocks, which will mean higher costs and less liquidity for businesses. In theory, higher interest rates also mean that investors are likely to opt for higher-yielding bond investments over stocks.</b></p><p>But Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, after all, the spread of COVID vaccines has laid the groundwork for an economic recovery this summer. According to CNBC, Wall Street analysts are fine-tuning their investment recommendations as May draws to a close, and here are the stocks favored by Wall Street analysts:</p><p><b>Advanced Micro Semiconductor Corporation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>）</b></p><p>AMD Semiconductor specializes in designing and manufacturing a variety of innovative microprocessors for the computer, communications, and consumer electronics industries, as well as providing flash memory and low-power processor solutions.</p><p>Gus Richard, an analyst at Northland Capital, said he was infinitely bullish on the company, reiterating a \"buy\" rating on the company and setting a price target of $116. Richard believes that the demand growth rate of personal computers may decline in the second quarter, but AMD's high-quality products are grabbing Intel's market share, so there is no need to worry too much about the decline in terminal demand. In the next five years, he said, AMD will expand its market share in the personal computer market from 20 percent today to 50 percent.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMED\">Amis Medical</a></b></p><p>Amis Medical is one of the largest providers of home medical care services and hospice services in the United States. Michael Wiederhorn, an analyst at Oppenheimer, said the company is still on the high road of growth, so he kept a \"buy\" rating on the company and set a price target of $325.</p><p><b>Deere & Co.</b></p><p>Deere Corporation is a leading global manufacturer of construction machinery, agricultural machinery and lawn machinery equipment. Stephen Volkmann, an analyst at Jefferies, reiterated a \"buy\" rating on the company, while he raised his price target to $450 from $400. Volkmann forecasts Deere to generate $55 billion in revenue this year and a 20% EBIT margin. At the same time, according to Deere management team, in 2021, the sales target will be raised from 23.5% increase to 28.5% increase.</p><p><b>Zscaler</b></p><p>Zscaler is an American cybersecurity company that provides cloud security services. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, maintained a \"buy\" rating on the company with a price target of $240.</p><p><b>AtriCure</b></p><p>AtriCure offers products related to the treatment of atrial fibrillation. Marie Thibault, an analyst at BTIG, said she was optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, reiterating the company's \"buy\" rating and $76 price target.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1248063581676550\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","AMED":"阿米斯医疗",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","AMD":"美国超微公司","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1248063581676550","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155355296","content_text":"美股5月表现好坏参半。\n标普500指数上涨0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨1.9%。小型股罗素2000指数持平，上涨0.1%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌1.5%。根据Bespoke的数据，在过去20年里，6月份的表现较为疲弱，平均下跌0.7%，只有40%的年份上涨。图表来源：CNBC。\n当前对于市场而言，关键的是美联储是否开始相信通胀高于预期，或者经济的强劲程度足以在没有这么多货币支持的情况下取得进展。联储官员强调，他们将保持宽松的政策，以观察经济真正复苏的迹象。他们还认为，较高的通胀数据是暂时的，如果通货膨胀过高，美联储的主要武器就是提高利率。\n加息的前景令股市感到不安，这将意味着企业成本上升和流动性减少。从理论上讲，更高的利率也意味着投资者可能会选择收益率更高的债券投资，而不是股票。\n但华尔街分析师依然保留乐观态度，毕竟新冠疫苗的普及为今年夏天经济复苏奠定了基础。据CNBC报道，随着5月接近尾声，华尔街分析师正在微调他们的投资建议，以下是华尔街分析师青睐的股票：\n美国超微半导体公司（AMD）\n美国AMD半导体公司专门为计算机、通信和消费电子行业设计和制造各种创新的微处理器，以及提供闪存和低功率处理器解决方案。\nNorthland Capital的分析师Gus Richard 表示无限看好这家公司，他重申了这家公司的“买入”评级，并设定目标价$116。Richard认为第二个季度，个人电脑的需求增速可能下降，但AMD优质的产品正在攫取因特尔的市场份额，所以不用对末端需求下降太过担忧。他说未来五年内，AMD在个人电脑市场的市占率将从现在的20%扩大到50%。\n阿米斯医疗\n阿米斯医疗是美国最大的家庭医疗护理服务提供商和临终关怀服务提供商之一。Oppenheimer的分析师Michael Wiederhorn表示这家公司还在增长的高速道上，因此保持该公司“买入”评级，目标价设为$325。\n迪尔公司\n迪尔公司是全球领先的工程机械、农用机械和草坪机械设备的制造商。Jefferies的分析师Stephen Volkmann重申该公司“买入”评级，同时，他将目标价从$400美元提升至$450美元。Volkmann预测迪尔今年的营收将达550亿美元，息税前利润率达20%。同时，根据迪尔管理团队的透露，2021年，销售额目标将从23.5%的涨幅提升至28.5%的涨幅。\nZscaler\nZscaler是一家提供云安全服务的美国网络安全公司。Wedbush的分析师Daniel Ives保持该公司“买入”评级，目标价设为$240。\nAtriCure\nAtriCure提供房颤治疗相关产品。BTIG的分析师Marie Thibault称看好该公司长期的的增长前景，她重申该公司“买入”评级和$76目标价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110268087,"gmtCreate":1622460825549,"gmtModify":1704184724729,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110268087","repostId":"1153796666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796666","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622457612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153796666?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796666","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数，于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","content":"<p>The Hang Seng Index Company has included JD Logistics in the Hang Seng Composite Index with effect from Friday, 11 June 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-31 18:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Hang Seng Index Company has included JD Logistics in the Hang Seng Composite Index with effect from Friday, 11 June 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796666","content_text":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数，于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138644764,"gmtCreate":1621938240558,"gmtModify":1704364760424,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138644764","repostId":"1187175383","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138642749,"gmtCreate":1621938060381,"gmtModify":1704364757503,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","idStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138642749","repostId":"1118239674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118239674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621937890,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118239674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"In the first quarter, there is a company or a massive profit of 10 billion! How profitable is the vaccine industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118239674","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n","content":"<p>It is estimated that global sales of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 are expected to exceed $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news side,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced the results of the first quarterly report, revealing that the profit of Kexing Zhongwei in the first quarter may reach 10 billion yuan. If the profit of Kexing Zhongwei in Q1 reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">CHINA PHARMA</a>Single-quarter revenue and profit history of the industry.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way, falling 2.87% as of the close.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's big rise in Sinovac is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces the COVID-19 vaccine, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of research and development, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in the therapeutic fields of antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, and degenerative diseases.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals showed that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period of last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associates and a joint venture in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period of last year, which achieved a leap-forward growth.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US$515 million (about HK$4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding a 15.03% interest in it. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may be mainly benefited from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>According to the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity interest in Sinovac Zhongwei, the net profit of Sinovac Zhongwei in Q1 is nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment volume of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>The securities speculate that 21Q1 should be about 200 million doses, and it is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%, which is in line with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei's net profit is nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand for COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of about 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, it took 25 days for the cumulative vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine nationwide to exceed 100 million doses on March 27th and 200 million on April 21st. It took 16 days from 200 million doses to more than 300 million doses on May 7th, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16th, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on the 23rd. It can be predicted that the pace of vaccination in China will also accelerate.</p><p>In addition,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original expectation of the epidemic. The possible impact of Indian, South African variants, etc. on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes it possible that vaccination may not be limited to just one, but large varieties that require regular vaccination. In addition, the EU will open the \"COVID-19 Pass\" on July 1st. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"COVID-19 Pass\" to gradually open the free flow of some regions to the world, and the sales of COVID-19 vaccines will be sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since the UAE became the first country to approve the Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine in December last year, Sinopharm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with exports amounting to 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding the whole of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry is unabated. The biological vaccine index has soared since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on the logic of the COVID-19 vaccine, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching a peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine and the changes in sales expectations, there was a sharp correction, the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend rebounded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies entered a performance realization period, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 are expected to exceed US$50 billion.</b></p><p>At present, with the industry dividend period, the share prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. Leader of 100 billion market capitalization<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit is 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">FOSUN PHARMA</a>Watson Biological's share price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusion, supporting medical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>According to the 2020 annual report, the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period of last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the first quarter, there is a company or a massive profit of 10 billion! How profitable is the vaccine industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the first quarter, there is a company or a massive profit of 10 billion! How profitable is the vaccine industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is estimated that global sales of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 are expected to exceed $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news side,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced the results of the first quarterly report, revealing that the profit of Kexing Zhongwei in the first quarter may reach 10 billion yuan. If the profit of Kexing Zhongwei in Q1 reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">CHINA PHARMA</a>Single-quarter revenue and profit history of the industry.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way, falling 2.87% as of the close.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's big rise in Sinovac is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces the COVID-19 vaccine, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of research and development, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in the therapeutic fields of antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, and degenerative diseases.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals showed that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period of last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associates and a joint venture in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period of last year, which achieved a leap-forward growth.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US$515 million (about HK$4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding a 15.03% interest in it. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may be mainly benefited from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>According to the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity interest in Sinovac Zhongwei, the net profit of Sinovac Zhongwei in Q1 is nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment volume of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>The securities speculate that 21Q1 should be about 200 million doses, and it is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%, which is in line with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei's net profit is nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand for COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of about 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, it took 25 days for the cumulative vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine nationwide to exceed 100 million doses on March 27th and 200 million on April 21st. It took 16 days from 200 million doses to more than 300 million doses on May 7th, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16th, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on the 23rd. It can be predicted that the pace of vaccination in China will also accelerate.</p><p>In addition,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original expectation of the epidemic. The possible impact of Indian, South African variants, etc. on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes it possible that vaccination may not be limited to just one, but large varieties that require regular vaccination. In addition, the EU will open the \"COVID-19 Pass\" on July 1st. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"COVID-19 Pass\" to gradually open the free flow of some regions to the world, and the sales of COVID-19 vaccines will be sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since the UAE became the first country to approve the Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine in December last year, Sinopharm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with exports amounting to 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding the whole of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry is unabated. The biological vaccine index has soared since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on the logic of the COVID-19 vaccine, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching a peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine and the changes in sales expectations, there was a sharp correction, the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend rebounded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies entered a performance realization period, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 are expected to exceed US$50 billion.</b></p><p>At present, with the industry dividend period, the share prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. Leader of 100 billion market capitalization<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit is 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">FOSUN PHARMA</a>Watson Biological's share price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusion, supporting medical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>According to the 2020 annual report, the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period of last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"300142":"沃森生物","300485":"赛升药业","300601":"康泰生物","688136":"科兴制药","688185":"康希诺","000650":"仁和药业","002581":"ST未名"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118239674","content_text":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n\n消息面上，昨日中国生物制药公布了一季报业绩，透露科兴中维一季度利润或达100亿元，如果科兴中维Q1盈利达百亿，这将创造中国医药产业的单季度营收和利润历史记录。受此利好消息影响，今日生物疫苗板块行情上涨。\n然而，公布业绩的中国生物制药高开4.86%后，一路走低，截至收盘，跌2.87%。\n另与大家认为的不同的是，今日大涨科兴制药并不是生产新冠疫苗的科兴中维，他们之间也并无任何股权关系。前者是一家主要从事重组蛋白药物和微生态制剂的研发、生产、销售一体化的创新型生物制药企业，专注于抗病毒、血液、肿瘤与免疫、退行性疾病等治疗领域的药物研发。\n中国生物制药Q1业绩显示，公司营收72亿元，较去年同期增长约16.4%；归母净利润19亿元，较去年同期增长118.5%。其中，首季应占联营公司及一家合营公司盈利达到14.76亿元，相比上年同期仅249.3万元实现了跨越式增长。\n去年12月份，中国生物制药宣布向科兴中维出资5.15亿美元(约40亿港元)，持有其15.03%权益。因此，市场推测中国生物制药首季盈利大升，或主要受惠科兴中维利润贡献。根据中国生物制药近15亿元盈利，以及在科兴中维的15%权益计算，科兴中维Q1净利润或近100亿。\n根据科兴中维向 WHO递交的审计材料，截止21年4月1日，科兴中维新冠灭活疫苗向全球27个国家累计发货量超27亿剂，国泰君安证券推测21Q1应该在2亿剂左右，测算灭活疫苗单支净利润在50元，净利率约40-50%，这与市场推测科兴中维近100亿净利润想符合。\n新冠疫苗需求量巨大，根据国家卫健委24日通报，全国新冠疫苗接种超过5亿剂次。按照每剂100元计算，大约产生了500亿元市场。\n根据公开数据，3月27日全国新冠疫苗累计接种突破1亿剂次，至4月21日突破2亿，用了25天。从2亿剂次到5月7日接种超过3亿剂次用了16天，到5月16日突破4亿剂次用了9天时间，再到23日突破5亿剂次则只用了7天时间。可以预测，中国疫苗接种速度还将加快。\n此外，印度疫情爆发，使原有的疫情预期发生改变。印度、南非变异株等对现有疫苗免疫效力可能产生的影响，使疫苗接种可能不仅限于一次，而是需要定期接种的大品种。另欧盟将在7月1日开通“新冠通行证”，预计其他国家也将在随后逐步实行类似的“新冠通行证”逐步开放部分地区直至全球的自由流动，新冠疫苗销售具备持续性。预计未来疫苗需求量还将继续增加。\n自去年12月，阿联酋成为第一个批准中国产新冠疫苗的国家后，国药中生、科兴生物和康希诺的疫苗开始运抵海外市场。今年一季度末时，中国已向 43 个国家出口了疫苗，出口额达到 119 亿元，远超去年全年。\n\n图源：智妍咨询\n疫苗行业热度不减。2019年以来生物疫苗指数大幅飙升。2020年涨幅为111%。疫情爆发后，基于新冠疫苗逻辑，指数维持上涨走势，7、8月份达到峰值。之后随新冠疫苗获批及销售预期变动，出现大幅度回调，估值重回相对合理区间，近期走势重新回升。\n\n2021年新冠疫苗企业进入业绩兑现期，多家机构对疫苗行业持乐观态度，预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n当前，伴随行业红利期，疫苗行业相关公司股价已经开始大放异彩。千亿市值龙头万泰生物近一年内涨停36次；复星医药、沃森生物股价屡创历史新高。\n此外，疫苗产业产业链上的相关公司营收大增。比如主要从事非PVC软袋、玻瓶大输液、配套医药包材、医疗器械等产品的研发、生产与销售的华仁药业，2020年年报显示，公司实现营业收入为16.16亿元，同比增长10.56%；实现归母净利润9462.4万元，较上年同期增长124.94%，营收利润双双达到历史最佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300142":0.9,"300485":0.9,"300601":0.9,"688136":0.9,"688185":0.9,"002581":0.9,"000650":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166374216,"gmtCreate":1623994343135,"gmtModify":1703826031334,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166374216","repostId":"2144724348","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110268087,"gmtCreate":1622460825549,"gmtModify":1704184724729,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110268087","repostId":"1153796666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796666","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622457612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153796666?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796666","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数，于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","content":"<p>The Hang Seng Index Company has included JD Logistics in the Hang Seng Composite Index with effect from Friday, 11 June 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHSI Companies: JD Logistics Included in Hang Seng Composite Index\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-31 18:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Hang Seng Index Company has included JD Logistics in the Hang Seng Composite Index with effect from Friday, 11 June 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796666","content_text":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数，于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142582948,"gmtCreate":1626161833684,"gmtModify":1703754559638,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142582948","repostId":"1106225294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179651938,"gmtCreate":1626523184724,"gmtModify":1703761427978,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179651938","repostId":"1152148407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142586677,"gmtCreate":1626161805099,"gmtModify":1703754559477,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142586677","repostId":"1154832282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154832282","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626159588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154832282?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 14:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154832282","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5G手机出货量1.28亿部，同比增长100.9%，占同期手机出货量73.4%。","content":"<p>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.</p><p>ICT Academy: From January to June, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 174 million units, up 13.7% year-on-year, and the shipment of 5G mobile phones amounted to 128 million units, up 100.9% year-on-year, accounting for 73.4% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.</p><p>ICT Academy: In June 2021, the domestic mobile phone market continued to decline year-on-year due to factors such as early release of demand (shipments increased by 100.1% year-on-year in the first quarter), shortage of mobile chips, and the absence of Huawei, but the decline narrowed from more than 30% in April and May to 10%, and achieved a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.7%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 14:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>China shipped 25.664 million mobile phones in June, down 10.4% year-on-year, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.</p><p>ICT Academy: From January to June, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 174 million units, up 13.7% year-on-year, and the shipment of 5G mobile phones amounted to 128 million units, up 100.9% year-on-year, accounting for 73.4% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.</p><p>ICT Academy: In June 2021, the domestic mobile phone market continued to decline year-on-year due to factors such as early release of demand (shipments increased by 100.1% year-on-year in the first quarter), shortage of mobile chips, and the absence of Huawei, but the decline narrowed from more than 30% in April and May to 10%, and achieved a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.7%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3838196910a7c13db676b51f15e68246","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154832282","content_text":"中国信通院数据显示，中国6月手机出货量2566.4万部，同比下降10.4%。\n信通院：1-6月国内市场手机总体出货量累计1.74亿部，同比增长13.7%，5G手机出货量1.28亿部，同比增长100.9%，占同期手机出货量73.4%。\n信通院：2021年6月，国内手机市场继续受需求提前释放（一季度出货量同比增长100.1%）、移动芯片短缺、华为缺位等因素影响，同比延续下降趋势，但降幅由4、5月的超过30%收窄至10%，并实现环比增长11.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149870568,"gmtCreate":1625718059254,"gmtModify":1703747052496,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149870568","repostId":"1129945496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129945496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625712407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129945496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Eight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129945496","media":"东北宏观by凤来仪","summary":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和","content":"<p><b>Summary of the Report</b></p><p>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation? We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy? With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair? We believe that the manufacturing industry will still be on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contract-on-contract growth will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair? We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate? The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?</b></p><p>We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p><b>1.1. The U.S. may have a comparative advantage in pandemic control</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the global pandemic, the primary factor determining the pace of economic recovery in various countries has been the situation of pandemic control. China took the lead in controlling the pandemic, resuming work and production smoothly, and restarting its economy, making it the only major economy to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been fully opened. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain a huge comparative advantage.</p><p>For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.<b>Developed countries have inherent advantages in the spread of vaccines</b>。 European and American countries are the producers of many kinds of vaccines, and at the same time monopolize the production of most vaccines. And most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that the popularization of vaccines has indeed played a significant role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people, who are more immune to the new coronavirus, so the slowdown in the popularity of vaccines has not caused the epidemic to rebound.</p><p>From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccines in the world: mRNA vaccine, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccine; adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile for several countries with high vaccine penetration rates. Among them, the vaccines received in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccines and mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of epidemic control, at present, the average number of new cases in the United States on the 7th has steadily declined, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. Recently, the epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Delta virus, a variant of the new coronavirus, while adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The outbreak in Chile has begun to decline since June, though at a slower pace than in the United States and Canada. The effectiveness of several COVID vaccines is currently medically inconclusive, but<b>From the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.</b>We analyzed more sample countries, and most of them agreed with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.</p><p>Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have administered a larger number of adenovirus vector vaccines. So far, Japan's vaccination rate is still low, only comparable to the world average. The vaccination progress in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve complete economic opening.<b>Our basic assumption is that the third quarter is the time when the epidemic in the United States is under control and the economy is fully open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2. US job market expected to accelerate recovery</b></p><p>The non-farm payroll data in the United States in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that suppressed the yield of the US dollar and US bonds and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.</p><p>There are three main factors that lead to the U.S. employment data in April and May falling short of expectations:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits for residents have reduced the urgency of the unemployed to find a job.</b>Some surveys show that compared with before the pandemic, the proportion of U.S. residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" has been lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to stay at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican-governed states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic-dominated states will exit later. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate in red states of the Republican Party after the pandemic was significantly lower than that in blue states of the Democratic Party.</p><p><b>Second, the pandemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.</b>Although many American people don't care about COVID-19, nor do they pay attention to prevention and control. But there are also many people who are very cautious about it. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to be able to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, creating a mismatch between supply and demand. This problem can only be effectively alleviated after the epidemic is fully controlled.</p><p><b>Third, due to the lockdown of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of parents of children to care for their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.</b>Relevant surveys in the United States show that the return to work rate of parents with younger children is significantly lower than average.</p><p><b>Obviously, the root of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors, which are expected to ease in the third quarter.</b>First of all, many states in the United States have planned to end unemployment benefits early. Under the current state plan, half of the states will end unemployment benefits by July 10, which will prompt more people to go out and find jobs. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to be fully opened, and the number of people who don't look for jobs due to fear of the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the demand for parents to care for children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,<b>We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth of non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment is not over yet, and the real estate market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>We believe that the manufacturing replenishment cycle brought by the production repair in the United States has not yet ended, which will continue to stimulate the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.</b>We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and inventory replenishment cycle after the COVID-19 epidemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of year-on-year inventory in each cycle as the origin, the replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. In this cycle, the process of inventory replenishment is faster than in the past, but the trend of wholesalers and retailers replenishing inventory is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be because the resumption of work and production is incomplete. With further recovery on the production side, manufacturers' replenishment is also expected to continue.<b>However, from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the US replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. housing market is starting to show signs of cooling.</b>The rising cost of building houses has pushed up home prices sharply, and mortgage rates in the United States began to rise early this year, limiting residents' ability to buy homes. Combined with a shortage of housing inventory, home sales began to decline.</p><p><b>However, housing spending will remain resilient.</b>On the one hand, although home sales in the United States have cooled down, we don't expect to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new listings will join the market to meet the previous demand of insufficient inventory and cannot be released. On the other hand, the demand for real estate replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of home construction spending lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even much stronger than before the pandemic. But the services sector fell to a freezing point due to economic lockdowns and recovered at a slower pace.</p><p>According to the Government Lockdown Index compiled by Oxford University, lockdowns in the United States have remained high so far due to the impact of the pandemic, which is constraining the recovery of the services sector. In the third quarter, with the epidemic under control and the economy fully opened up, there is a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in service-related industries compared with before the epidemic, which has great potential.<b>At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out. At present, the income of American residents is still far higher than that before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than that before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but the lack of consumption scenarios in the service industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above reasons, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control in the United States will have a comparative advantage in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, the economic performance of the United States will still be bright.</b></p><p><b>But in the long run,</b>The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the withdrawal experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. From the above discussion, it can also be seen that the fire of manufacturing replenishment and real estate will probably end this year, so<b>This year's boom in the U.S. economy is unsustainable in the long run.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation?</b></p><p>Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, great deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to the unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, the global future will see a big inflation trend. We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p><b>2.1. Long-term inflation hub in the United States will rise</b></p><p><b>From a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation that has prevailed globally will eventually fall, we do not believe that there will be a big deflationary environment, and the future inflation hub will be higher than in the past decade</b>There are two reasons:</p><p><b>First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is matched with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode mainly based on monetary policy</b>。 Relying mainly on monetary policy stimulus will lead to a large amount of money staying in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. On the other hand, fiscal policy can effectively promote the flow of money into the real economy, thus pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is the embodiment of the effect of fiscal policy.</p><p>Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the lack of supply in the labor market and the push up of wages. The following chart shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that when<b>When wage growth is matched by inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth is significantly lagging behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016</b>。 In fact, in recent years, the wage level in the United States has been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for inflation. The CPI in the United States approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. After the epidemic, this trend has accelerated, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually, this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the reduction of labor participation rate and the changes in economic structure brought by the epidemic have also brought a long-term impact on labor supply, and the cycle of rising wages driving inflation may last for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.</b>Since 2000, a well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries is that the continuous development of global trade has caused the cheap goods of emerging economies to impact the commodity prices of developed countries, and the huge low-price supply of developing countries has made developed countries unable to stimulate inflation no matter how they stimulate demand. An obvious example is that after China's entry into WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.</p><p>But this trend has been stymied and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after the populist governments of various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries generally started the \"manufacturing return\" plan. The G7 countries have taken the lead in introducing the world's lowest tax rate policy, aimed at attracting overseas tax-avoiding companies to return to their homes. At present and in the future, a series of policy objectives will be to increase the overseas costs of multinational companies. If multinational companies come to their home countries, they will also face higher labor costs, and the long-term rise in costs will also push the long-term upward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Current macro conditions do not provide the basis for big inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries, represented by the United States, will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that of the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation mainly lies in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).</p><p>Looking back at the history of inflation in the United States over the past 100 years, we can see that there were three periods of obvious great inflation: the period of World War I, the period of World War II, and the period of oil crisis in the 70s. We believe that the basis of big inflation is mainly as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in the money supply.</b>Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by the war, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply of the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher than that of the day-to-day water release period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.</p><p><b>Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand</b>。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing is easy to fall into the liquidity trap, which can't push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Third, the self-realization of inflation expectations, which comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives</b>。 The common feature of the three big inflation periods seems to be a fault on the supply side, which is manifested by the squeeze of military production out of civilian production and the disruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the surface reason, and the deep reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The gap in supply pushed up inflation expectations. In the three major inflation periods, the central banks of all countries did not have a clear inflation target. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's continuous expectation of monetary easing. Finally, inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promoted each other and realized themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, emerging economies may also cause imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we will only discuss large economies here, not this situation.</p><p>Combined with the above three big inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation in the world at present. The government debt ratio of the United States even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries are the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfied. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates, and there is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. The characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations, which is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks all over the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which play a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer thinks that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past big inflation period. The limitation of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.</p><p><b>Based on the above points, we believe that the world does not have the foundation of big inflation at present, and it is difficult to have sustained excessive inflation.</b></p><p><b>2.3. Short-term commodity prices have a high probability of pulling back, but the extent is expected to be limited</b></p><p>After discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to the judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have probably peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thus alleviating some inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>First of all, the global M2 growth rate has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.</b>We calculated the sum of M2 of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator has a high correlation with RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year, which is leading most of the time and synchronous in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year. Empirically, there is a correction pressure on the overall commodity price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the gradual release of tightening signals from the Federal Reserve and the Chinese government's price control also helped to reduce speculation in commodities in the market</b>。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have obviously cooled down. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult to see a sustained price decline.</b></p><p><b>First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, and it is difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.</b>According to the global production index of various types of economies compiled by the Dutch Economic Analysis Bureau, the production level of emerging economies after excluding China has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend resumed at the end of the first quarter. Under the circumstances that the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets is generally backward and the epidemic prevention and control situation is poor, it is not yet known when the raw material supply gap will be made up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, although iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have recently pulled back, the price of crude oil, the mother of commodities, has been rising</b>。 The international oil price is highly correlated with the prices of coal, black, nonferrous and other commodities in China. At present, the oil price is likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of the overall inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction of commodity prices and a rise in base, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, with the risk of exceeding expectations. However, there is little pressure on CPI to rise. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge in demand; On the other hand, the price of pork dropped rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.</b></p><p><b>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy?</b></p><p>With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p><b>3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to taper bond purchases</b></p><p><b>Judging from the objective market reaction, at present, the Fed's QE has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to purchase bonds is declining.</b>The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to an all-time high, far higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of overnight reverse repurchase by the Federal Reserve means that the financial system deposits money in the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively pours \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excessive. Even to maintain the lower bound of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise IOER and ONRRP rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excess liquidity pushing short-end interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance of reducing bond purchases is also progressing steadily.</b>Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss the tapering of bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he was ready to discuss the tapering of bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing the tapering of bond purchases\". We think the Fed's current round of tapering of bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:</p><p>Phase 1: No discussion of tapering at all.</p><p>Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering.</p><p>Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 4: Announce the time plan to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 5: Officially start to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>This process fully reflects the Fed's communication with the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has stepped from the first phase to the second phase. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>Another signal revealed from the June Fed meeting is that the Fed is no longer completely ignoring inflation.</b>Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the monetary policy orientation. But at the June meeting, Powell noted that \"inflation could be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it could misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if the inflation expectation is too high, it will be prepared to adjust the policy.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed the attitude of inflation, but has made a policy response at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center of the United States will rise, and there is also the possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also urge the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.</p><p><b>3.2. The U.S. dollar will remain strong in the short term, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trend</b></p><p>As the Fed communicates fully with the market in this cycle and guides the market expectations successfully, we believe that the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual realization of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.</p><p><b>We believe that under the expectation of the Fed's tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but it will not enter a strong US dollar cycle.</b>We mentioned in the first part that the US economy should perform strongly in the third quarter, with a great comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis supporting the US dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.</p><p>However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily bring a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring a short-term strength of the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy are really improving. Although the US dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and the expectation of QE in the euro zone kept heating up and finally landed, passively pushing up the US dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major European debtor countries and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that in the United States, it is difficult to operate in reverse from 2014 to 2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the US economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the US dollar to maintain a strong momentum in the long run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the bond market, there was an interesting phenomenon after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: the short-term interest rate rose rapidly, but the long-term interest rate fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market is not skeptical about the Fed's short-term accelerated monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but it is not confident in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partly consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with the short-term interest rate of the United States, but it is not easy to remain strong in the long run.</p><p><b>However, we believe that there is still a great upward risk of long-term interest rates in the third quarter.</b>At present, an important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not bright enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate is also abnormally high, which can't dispel the market worries. At the same time, with the recent commodity price correction, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is difficult to fall soon, so the long-term yield of U.S. debt may continue to rise after a short correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?</b></p><p>Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p><b>4.1. In the second half of the year, the base increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarter</b></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2020, China took the lead in resuming production due to good control of the pandemic, and the substitution effect led to a bright export performance in the second half of the year, while the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth of exports in the second half of 2021.</b>In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then accelerated further, with year-on-year growth rates as high as 21% and 18% in November and December, respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even if the second half of the year maintains the compound growth rate of 13% in the first quarter to 2019, then the exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally drop sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.<b>Therefore, the influence of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline of export growth will be certain.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. Improvement on the global demand side to hedge the decline of substitution effects on the supply side</b></p><p><b>4.2.1. Improved demand due to global economic recovery is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, China's export performance has been very bright in the process of global economic recovery.<b>From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in the general trend and inflection point, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak under the background of improving global demand.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, although there is still epidemic disturbance and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the world as a whole, the economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will not change.</b>From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and is still expanding, reflecting that the global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30th, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index reached 3,383. The oil price and the freight rate of upstream raw materials kept hitting new highs, which also pointed to the current vigorous development of global industry to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not gone bad, and the supporting logic of exports has changed to some extent. It has been dominated by the previous supply-side production substitution and gradually transformed into the global demand-side to drive China's exports.</b>In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have driven the export growth rate most obviously since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2.2. Demand-side pull can greatly hedge the impact of weakening production substitution effects</b></p><p><b>The global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become the core export fundamentals of China.</b>First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely hedge the supply restored by overseas economies, thus weakening the substitution effect attenuation brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of global total exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, global total exports rose by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rates of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's share of global exports dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the proportion of EU exports with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the proportion of ASEAN exports as a whole has shown a slow decline.<b>Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of production substitution effect, which has limited impact, and exports will remain prosperous in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As of May 2021, among China's exports, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), medical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year, respectively, and the monthly pull rate of 28% export growth rate to China was 5.7% and 1.8%, respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by the mutant virus, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to the insufficient supply of vaccines, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is generally still below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has administered 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. With the gradual decline of China's demand for vaccines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used for supply and export. Therefore, the export of biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) will probably maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100% in the second half of the year, while the export of medical materials and pharmaceuticals will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. The disturbance of poor shipping will be greatly alleviated in the third and fourth quarters</b></p><p>Poor shipping is one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. The labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. China's container shortage caused by inefficient container turnover.<b>Looking forward to the second half of the year, the shortage of shipping and port labor caused by the pandemic will be alleviated with the vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency, so the drag of poor shipping on transportation efficiency will be obviously improved in the third and fourth quarters.</b></p><p>The labor shortage that caused poor shipping came from two aspects. On the one hand, because of the impact of the pandemic and massive fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits chose to stay home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers not being replenished in a timely manner. However, at present, the full vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the suspension of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to ease in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to the relevant data of the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on global international trade merchant ships, of which 15% come from India. After the second wave of epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port carrying Indian seafarers or ships passing through India, which increased the difficulty of seafarers' rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarers' rotation will gradually return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The restoration of port and seafarer labour will increase port capacity, thereby alleviating the problem of container accumulation at important ports. In addition, China's container manufacturers are also increasing their output. In the past five months, China's container exports have always remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers with increased capacity will gradually improve the current transportation efficiency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair?</b></p><p>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, at present, the capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, this year, both endogenous and exogenous financing of enterprises are guaranteed, and enterprises have the ability to invest additionally. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contracted growth rate will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p><b>5.1. Manufacturing is still on the upward track in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs remain relatively optimistic about the future recovery of manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.</b>The entrepreneur confidence index, which has leading significance for manufacturing investment, has risen rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, the highest level in the past 10 years. In the third and fourth quarters, with the price of commodities under control, the profit expectation is expected to further improve. Therefore, on the whole, the manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profit of industrial enterprises reached 36.4% year-on-year, and the compound year-on-year ratio was 20.2% in 2019. The high profit growth rate also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened their willingness to actively invest in production expansion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of capacity utilization rate, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Under the background of improving demand side of global economic recovery, the demand for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year exists objectively</b>。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, down from the fourth quarter of last year, but still at the highest level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new projects was 15.6%, representing a compound year-on-year growth rate of 4%, and the compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of each month in 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has steadily increased since 2020. The steady increase in investment in new projects and construction and installation also confirms to a certain extent that the market demand for further increasing investment in manufacturing industry in 2021 is objective.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of financing situation, this year, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed, and enterprises have sufficient funds for additional investment.</b>In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, the profit of manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.</p><p><b>5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communication, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing lead the way</b></p><p>In 2021, global production recovery became the main theme, and under the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, export became a key clue in China's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communication and machinery are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, in the last three months, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that export is an important clue of manufacturing investment this year.<b>In terms of exports, this year's epidemic-related medicine, computer communication related to home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are expected to perform well, so the corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair?</b></p><p>In the post-pandemic recovery path, there has been a clear difference between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and cannot resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p><b>6.1. Restrictions on consumption imposed by residents' income will be gradually eased</b></p><p><b>From the total level, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level and consumption power of Chinese residents.</b>We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year conformity ratio. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the pandemic, thus limiting the spending power. However, this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption repair,<b>We believe that residents' income will steadily increase with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not be a long-term reason for restricting consumption.</b></p><p><b>Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to spend</b>。 The ratio of household consumption spending to income dropped to its lowest point after the pandemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again, and we think that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a great impact on residents' willingness to spend. In addition, the increase of residents' preventive savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens,<b>These factors will eventually fade, but it will take a long time for the change of residents' willingness to spend, especially their willingness to save, to reverse, so the future consumption recovery will still be a relatively slow process.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2. Consumption structure will gradually balance</b></p><p>Structurally, catering and travel-related consumption remains suppressed; In particular, consumption below the quota is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail volume, the recovery of the catering industry is far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe that this reflects two problems:<b>First, the willingness of residents to go out for dining is still low due to the impact of the epidemic, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering income. Second, during the pandemic, many small businesses may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above the designated size. However, the closure of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so it will also affect the total consumption. It will take a relatively long time for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption repair will be relatively slow</b>。</p><p>The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease in residents' willingness to travel after the pandemic, oil consumption growth remained weak even under last year's ultra-low base. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be repaired quickly.<b>The consumption structure will be more balanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?</b></p><p>We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p><b>7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policy</b></p><p>At present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc all over the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused a serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Europe and America. Since current vaccines are still protective against the virus, and vaccine accessibility in European and American countries is much higher than in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, the spread of a new round of local epidemic in China in Guangdong has also been controlled. There have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.<b>In summary, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that the pandemic will break out again on a large scale in major economies. The following analysis of the monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continuous control of the pandemic. But we also do not rule out the tail risk of the mutated virus shutting down the world's major economies again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.2. The normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lead to global synergy</b></p><p><b>As mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, some emerging economies have started to move ahead of rate hike this year</b>For example, the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates twice in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian central bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised 200 basis points at a time in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea has also publicly stated that interest rates will be raised by the end of the year.</p><p><b>We believe that this round of rate hike in some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of currency normalization of the Federal Reserve in the future, and it is also in line with historical experience</b>。 Many views in the market believe that the rate hike of emerging economies is mainly responding to high inflation, but high inflation itself is the result of the combined force of supply and demand contradiction and global liquidity easing. If we consider the economy purely, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered, and it seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment of the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the range should not be too large, which is inconsistent with the policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies that have taken action at present. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2015, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the leading rate hike was about a year ahead of the Federal Reserve. Against the background that the US economy has recovered beyond expectations and the FMOC meeting of the Federal Reserve is close to the hawkish statement, this rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for the future policy shift of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3. China's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year, and it will be difficult to turn loose</b></p><p>In the second quarter, China's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically flat, and the growth rate of social financing slowly declined. Combined with the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe that<b>In the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to loosening, so as to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.</b>According to the monetary policy implementation report of the central bank in the first quarter, while managing the main gate, the next stage of monetary policy will further play the leading role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, which will still become an important focus of monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.</p><p><b>7.3.1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in place</b></p><p><b>China's monetary policy follows the principle of \"inside\" and \"outside\", but the expected change of monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve has no impact on China's policy</b>。 From the historical experience, in response to the sharp downward risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve started its rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and has not adjusted its benchmark interest rate so far. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Fed's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the regular meeting of the central bank in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer \"strengthening the coordination of international macroeconomic policies and preventing external shocks\".</p><p>The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy were also relatively large, and lessons should be learned. China's stock market and housing prices in various cities have risen in turn. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with the stock market crash, while the housing bubble made the housing prices remain high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and at the same time, it is more difficult to control the stability of housing prices in the later period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.2. Monetary Policy Targets: Insufficient Reasons for China's Turn to Loosening in the Second Half of the Year</b></p><p><b>First, from the price target of monetary policy, the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be higher, which does not mean that prices can be eased if they go down</b>。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter the downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we don't think that if the inflationary pressure is small, the monetary policy can be loosened, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not constitute the reason that the currency should be tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment targets of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth continues to recover steadily and sustainably, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and the pressure of steady growth and employment is small.</b>On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the epidemic. The results of employment protection are remarkable, and the pressure is significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year with 2019 as the base period, and the economic vitality has recovered strongly. The GDP forecast for the second quarter reached 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited, and consumption fluctuates due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged, and manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a relatively strong growth trend.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter to be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer declining, and remaining at a high level</b>。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculation, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will remain stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, the economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and the monetary policy does not need to release water to further promote macro leverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, judging from the goal of basically stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, the pressure of strong trend appreciation of RMB during the year is not great.</b>In April, there was an obvious appreciation of RMB. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance to monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.3. Current currency volume, price and credit at desirable levels</b></p><p><b>First, from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past decade, and there is basically no room for further easing.</b>As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate has dropped by 2.2% after the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past decade. At present, there is no room for downward adjustment. The market's expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates is also relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the quantity indicators of monetary policy, the recent liquidity operation is mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate remains stable.</b>In the second quarter, the central bank's total net investment in open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which were increased in response to the tightening of liquidity in June. Generally, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds were basically abundant. That is to say, reasonable and abundant liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.</p><p><b>Third, from the point of view of credit, it is the policy goal to basically match the growth rate of money supply and social financing with nominal GDP. At present, there is no need to shift to easing</b>。 This year's government work report clearly states that the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the following figure, both the quarterly growth index of nominal GDP and the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month), the proxy variable of GDP growth rate, basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year. This year's growth rate of social financing will generally drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and in the second half of the year, it may rebound slightly with the decrease of the base. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.</p><p>All in all, we analyze it from multiple angles. The reasons for China's monetary policy to shift to loosening in the second half of the year are not sufficient, so we should pay attention to the risk of this expectation in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate?</b></p><p>The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>8.1. RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not enter a depreciation cycle</b></p><p><b>Looking back on the trend of exchange rates of various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, as is the RMB exchange rate.</b>In February last year, the epidemic first broke out in China, and the RMB depreciated. In March, when the overseas epidemic broke out and caused a liquidity crisis in the US dollar, all non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the plight of the epidemic, the economy recovered rapidly, and the RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the United States in autumn and winter began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while the popularization of vaccines in Europe accelerated, and the non-agricultural data was less than expected. The US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The RMB accelerated its appreciation in late May. After June, with the regulation of the central bank and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since April, the RMB has experienced a large appreciation, which is too fast. We believe that there is adjustment pressure in the short term.</p><p><b>First, the RMB is appreciating faster than the fundamental basis.</b>Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second quarter and third quarter of this year are the stages when the comparative advantage of the US economy is more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of RMB at this stage is away from the economic fundamentals.</p><p><b>Secondly, judging from the attitude of the central bank towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive exchange rate fluctuations, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system</b>。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, which has a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately stated its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, we don't think the RMB will depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.</p><p>Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of exchange rate, but only to suppress the excessive fluctuation of RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The basis of the final turnaround of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.<b>Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it is difficult to reverse the trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and it needs to import a lot to fulfill its commitment to the United States. This objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain firm to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products by a total of US$77.7 billion, US$32 billion and US$52.4 billion in two years on the basis of 2017 (the statistics of trade in services are not easy to discuss for the time being). According to U.S. -caliber trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by 2.11 billion, 4.52 billion and 2.09 billion US dollars in 2020.<b>So if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need a total of $153.4 billion more imports in these three areas this year</b>。 If you need to meet the two-year target, you need to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even without taking into account last year's shortfall, 2021 needs to increase by 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16%, respectively, compared with 2017.<b>Commitment fulfillment rates so far this year are still low and stressful.</b></p><p>Judging from the attitude of both China and the United States, both China and the United States have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The US even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering cutting tariffs on China.<b>Therefore, from the perspective of the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to have experienced a large depreciation at this time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>8.2. There is a basis for RMB to continue to appreciate in the medium and long term</b></p><p><b>Although there is pressure of RMB adjustment in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental basis of RMB appreciation is still strong.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more robust by comparison.</b>During the pandemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooded monetary and fiscal policies, and the balance sheets of central banks expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of M2's year-on-year growth rate is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. Fiscal policy is also limited. The absence of strong stimulus means less pressure to withdraw from future policies. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have largely returned to normal this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy exit. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious reverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. The depreciation of exchange rate will cause inflation to rise, which is behind the influence of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, which is behind the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries will rise, while inflationary pressures in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheating of housing, a recovery in the services sector and rising energy prices, while<b>China's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of the yuan, which in turn supports the exchange rate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of monetary policy, different from the depreciation cycle of RMB in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\", and the two are in the same direction, instead of the situation when the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. So<b>The normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p>","source":"lsy1601172882827","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEight Macroeconomic Outlooks for the Second Half of the Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">东北宏观by凤来仪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary of the Report</b></p><p>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation? We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy? With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair? We believe that the manufacturing industry will still be on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contract-on-contract growth will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair? We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate? The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>Outlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?</b></p><p>We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. But in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.</p><p><b>1.1. The U.S. may have a comparative advantage in pandemic control</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the global pandemic, the primary factor determining the pace of economic recovery in various countries has been the situation of pandemic control. China took the lead in controlling the pandemic, resuming work and production smoothly, and restarting its economy, making it the only major economy to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been fully opened. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain a huge comparative advantage.</p><p>For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.<b>Developed countries have inherent advantages in the spread of vaccines</b>。 European and American countries are the producers of many kinds of vaccines, and at the same time monopolize the production of most vaccines. And most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that the popularization of vaccines has indeed played a significant role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people, who are more immune to the new coronavirus, so the slowdown in the popularity of vaccines has not caused the epidemic to rebound.</p><p>From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccines in the world: mRNA vaccine, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccine; adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile for several countries with high vaccine penetration rates. Among them, the vaccines received in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccines and mRNA vaccines; The vaccines administered in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of epidemic control, at present, the average number of new cases in the United States on the 7th has steadily declined, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. Recently, the epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Delta virus, a variant of the new coronavirus, while adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The outbreak in Chile has begun to decline since June, though at a slower pace than in the United States and Canada. The effectiveness of several COVID vaccines is currently medically inconclusive, but<b>From the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.</b>We analyzed more sample countries, and most of them agreed with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.</p><p>Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have administered a larger number of adenovirus vector vaccines. So far, Japan's vaccination rate is still low, only comparable to the world average. The vaccination progress in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve complete economic opening.<b>Our basic assumption is that the third quarter is the time when the epidemic in the United States is under control and the economy is fully open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2. US job market expected to accelerate recovery</b></p><p>The non-farm payroll data in the United States in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that suppressed the yield of the US dollar and US bonds and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.</p><p>There are three main factors that lead to the U.S. employment data in April and May falling short of expectations:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits for residents have reduced the urgency of the unemployed to find a job.</b>Some surveys show that compared with before the pandemic, the proportion of U.S. residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" has been lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to stay at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican-governed states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic-dominated states will exit later. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate in red states of the Republican Party after the pandemic was significantly lower than that in blue states of the Democratic Party.</p><p><b>Second, the pandemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.</b>Although many American people don't care about COVID-19, nor do they pay attention to prevention and control. But there are also many people who are very cautious about it. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to be able to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, creating a mismatch between supply and demand. This problem can only be effectively alleviated after the epidemic is fully controlled.</p><p><b>Third, due to the lockdown of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of parents of children to care for their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.</b>Relevant surveys in the United States show that the return to work rate of parents with younger children is significantly lower than average.</p><p><b>Obviously, the root of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors, which are expected to ease in the third quarter.</b>First of all, many states in the United States have planned to end unemployment benefits early. Under the current state plan, half of the states will end unemployment benefits by July 10, which will prompt more people to go out and find jobs. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to be fully opened, and the number of people who don't look for jobs due to fear of the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the demand for parents to care for children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,<b>We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth of non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment is not over yet, and the real estate market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>We believe that the manufacturing replenishment cycle brought by the production repair in the United States has not yet ended, which will continue to stimulate the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.</b>We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and inventory replenishment cycle after the COVID-19 epidemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of year-on-year inventory in each cycle as the origin, the replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. In this cycle, the process of inventory replenishment is faster than in the past, but the trend of wholesalers and retailers replenishing inventory is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be because the resumption of work and production is incomplete. With further recovery on the production side, manufacturers' replenishment is also expected to continue.<b>However, from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the US replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. housing market is starting to show signs of cooling.</b>The rising cost of building houses has pushed up home prices sharply, and mortgage rates in the United States began to rise early this year, limiting residents' ability to buy homes. Combined with a shortage of housing inventory, home sales began to decline.</p><p><b>However, housing spending will remain resilient.</b>On the one hand, although home sales in the United States have cooled down, we don't expect to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new listings will join the market to meet the previous demand of insufficient inventory and cannot be released. On the other hand, the demand for real estate replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of home construction spending lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even much stronger than before the pandemic. But the services sector fell to a freezing point due to economic lockdowns and recovered at a slower pace.</p><p>According to the Government Lockdown Index compiled by Oxford University, lockdowns in the United States have remained high so far due to the impact of the pandemic, which is constraining the recovery of the services sector. In the third quarter, with the epidemic under control and the economy fully opened up, there is a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in service-related industries compared with before the epidemic, which has great potential.<b>At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out. At present, the income of American residents is still far higher than that before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than that before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but the lack of consumption scenarios in the service industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above reasons, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control in the United States will have a comparative advantage in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, the economic performance of the United States will still be bright.</b></p><p><b>But in the long run,</b>The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the withdrawal experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. From the above discussion, it can also be seen that the fire of manufacturing replenishment and real estate will probably end this year, so<b>This year's boom in the U.S. economy is unsustainable in the long run.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 2: Will the future be big inflation or big deflation?</b></p><p>Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, great deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to the unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, the global future will see a big inflation trend. We believe that the foundation of big inflation and big deflation is not available. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to have sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.</p><p><b>2.1. Long-term inflation hub in the United States will rise</b></p><p><b>From a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation that has prevailed globally will eventually fall, we do not believe that there will be a big deflationary environment, and the future inflation hub will be higher than in the past decade</b>There are two reasons:</p><p><b>First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is matched with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode mainly based on monetary policy</b>。 Relying mainly on monetary policy stimulus will lead to a large amount of money staying in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. On the other hand, fiscal policy can effectively promote the flow of money into the real economy, thus pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is the embodiment of the effect of fiscal policy.</p><p>Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the lack of supply in the labor market and the push up of wages. The following chart shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that when<b>When wage growth is matched by inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth is significantly lagging behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016</b>。 In fact, in recent years, the wage level in the United States has been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for inflation. The CPI in the United States approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. After the epidemic, this trend has accelerated, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually, this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the reduction of labor participation rate and the changes in economic structure brought by the epidemic have also brought a long-term impact on labor supply, and the cycle of rising wages driving inflation may last for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.</b>Since 2000, a well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries is that the continuous development of global trade has caused the cheap goods of emerging economies to impact the commodity prices of developed countries, and the huge low-price supply of developing countries has made developed countries unable to stimulate inflation no matter how they stimulate demand. An obvious example is that after China's entry into WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.</p><p>But this trend has been stymied and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after the populist governments of various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries generally started the \"manufacturing return\" plan. The G7 countries have taken the lead in introducing the world's lowest tax rate policy, aimed at attracting overseas tax-avoiding companies to return to their homes. At present and in the future, a series of policy objectives will be to increase the overseas costs of multinational companies. If multinational companies come to their home countries, they will also face higher labor costs, and the long-term rise in costs will also push the long-term upward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Current macro conditions do not provide the basis for big inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries, represented by the United States, will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that of the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation mainly lies in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).</p><p>Looking back at the history of inflation in the United States over the past 100 years, we can see that there were three periods of obvious great inflation: the period of World War I, the period of World War II, and the period of oil crisis in the 70s. We believe that the basis of big inflation is mainly as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in the money supply.</b>Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by the war, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply of the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher than that of the day-to-day water release period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.</p><p><b>Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand</b>。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing is easy to fall into the liquidity trap, which can't push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Third, the self-realization of inflation expectations, which comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives</b>。 The common feature of the three big inflation periods seems to be a fault on the supply side, which is manifested by the squeeze of military production out of civilian production and the disruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the surface reason, and the deep reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The gap in supply pushed up inflation expectations. In the three major inflation periods, the central banks of all countries did not have a clear inflation target. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's continuous expectation of monetary easing. Finally, inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promoted each other and realized themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, emerging economies may also cause imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we will only discuss large economies here, not this situation.</p><p>Combined with the above three big inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation in the world at present. The government debt ratio of the United States even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries are the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfied. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates, and there is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. The characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations, which is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks all over the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which play a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer thinks that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past big inflation period. The limitation of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.</p><p><b>Based on the above points, we believe that the world does not have the foundation of big inflation at present, and it is difficult to have sustained excessive inflation.</b></p><p><b>2.3. Short-term commodity prices have a high probability of pulling back, but the extent is expected to be limited</b></p><p>After discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to the judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have probably peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thus alleviating some inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>First of all, the global M2 growth rate has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.</b>We calculated the sum of M2 of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator has a high correlation with RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year, which is leading most of the time and synchronous in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year. Empirically, there is a correction pressure on the overall commodity price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the gradual release of tightening signals from the Federal Reserve and the Chinese government's price control also helped to reduce speculation in commodities in the market</b>。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have obviously cooled down. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult to see a sustained price decline.</b></p><p><b>First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, and it is difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.</b>According to the global production index of various types of economies compiled by the Dutch Economic Analysis Bureau, the production level of emerging economies after excluding China has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend resumed at the end of the first quarter. Under the circumstances that the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets is generally backward and the epidemic prevention and control situation is poor, it is not yet known when the raw material supply gap will be made up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, although iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have recently pulled back, the price of crude oil, the mother of commodities, has been rising</b>。 The international oil price is highly correlated with the prices of coal, black, nonferrous and other commodities in China. At present, the oil price is likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of the overall inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction of commodity prices and a rise in base, China's PPI will drop slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, with the risk of exceeding expectations. However, there is little pressure on CPI to rise. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge in demand; On the other hand, the price of pork dropped rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.</b></p><p><b>Outlook 3: What will be the pace of Fed monetary policy?</b></p><p>With the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The US dollar will receive short-term support, and the long-term yield of US debt will also have upward pressure.</p><p><b>3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to taper bond purchases</b></p><p><b>Judging from the objective market reaction, at present, the Fed's QE has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to purchase bonds is declining.</b>The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to an all-time high, far higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of overnight reverse repurchase by the Federal Reserve means that the financial system deposits money in the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively pours \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excessive. Even to maintain the lower bound of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise IOER and ONRRP rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excess liquidity pushing short-end interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance of reducing bond purchases is also progressing steadily.</b>Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss the tapering of bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he was ready to discuss the tapering of bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing the tapering of bond purchases\". We think the Fed's current round of tapering of bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:</p><p>Phase 1: No discussion of tapering at all.</p><p>Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering.</p><p>Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 4: Announce the time plan to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>Phase 5: Officially start to reduce bond purchases.</p><p>This process fully reflects the Fed's communication with the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has stepped from the first phase to the second phase. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>Another signal revealed from the June Fed meeting is that the Fed is no longer completely ignoring inflation.</b>Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the monetary policy orientation. But at the June meeting, Powell noted that \"inflation could be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it could misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if the inflation expectation is too high, it will be prepared to adjust the policy.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed the attitude of inflation, but has made a policy response at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center of the United States will rise, and there is also the possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also urge the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.</p><p><b>3.2. The U.S. dollar will remain strong in the short term, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trend</b></p><p>As the Fed communicates fully with the market in this cycle and guides the market expectations successfully, we believe that the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual realization of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.</p><p><b>We believe that under the expectation of the Fed's tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but it will not enter a strong US dollar cycle.</b>We mentioned in the first part that the US economy should perform strongly in the third quarter, with a great comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis supporting the US dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.</p><p>However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily bring a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring a short-term strength of the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy are really improving. Although the US dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and the expectation of QE in the euro zone kept heating up and finally landed, passively pushing up the US dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major European debtor countries and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that in the United States, it is difficult to operate in reverse from 2014 to 2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the US economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the US dollar to maintain a strong momentum in the long run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the bond market, there was an interesting phenomenon after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: the short-term interest rate rose rapidly, but the long-term interest rate fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market is not skeptical about the Fed's short-term accelerated monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but it is not confident in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partly consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with the short-term interest rate of the United States, but it is not easy to remain strong in the long run.</p><p><b>However, we believe that there is still a great upward risk of long-term interest rates in the third quarter.</b>At present, an important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not bright enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate is also abnormally high, which can't dispel the market worries. At the same time, with the recent commodity price correction, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is difficult to fall soon, so the long-term yield of U.S. debt may continue to rise after a short correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?</b></p><p>Dragged down by the high base, it was difficult for China's exports in the second half of 2021 to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2021. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 21%, under the neutral scenario, 15%, and under the pessimistic scenario, the annual growth rate will be 10% (with low probability). In terms of structure, it will fall quarter by quarter after high and low.</p><p><b>4.1. In the second half of the year, the base increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarter</b></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2020, China took the lead in resuming production due to good control of the pandemic, and the substitution effect led to a bright export performance in the second half of the year, while the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth of exports in the second half of 2021.</b>In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then accelerated further, with year-on-year growth rates as high as 21% and 18% in November and December, respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even if the second half of the year maintains the compound growth rate of 13% in the first quarter to 2019, then the exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally drop sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.<b>Therefore, the influence of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline of export growth will be certain.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. Improvement on the global demand side to hedge the decline of substitution effects on the supply side</b></p><p><b>4.2.1. Improved demand due to global economic recovery is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, China's export performance has been very bright in the process of global economic recovery.<b>From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in the general trend and inflection point, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak under the background of improving global demand.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, although there is still epidemic disturbance and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the world as a whole, the economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will not change.</b>From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and is still expanding, reflecting that the global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30th, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index reached 3,383. The oil price and the freight rate of upstream raw materials kept hitting new highs, which also pointed to the current vigorous development of global industry to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not gone bad, and the supporting logic of exports has changed to some extent. It has been dominated by the previous supply-side production substitution and gradually transformed into the global demand-side to drive China's exports.</b>In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have driven the export growth rate most obviously since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2.2. Demand-side pull can greatly hedge the impact of weakening production substitution effects</b></p><p><b>The global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become the core export fundamentals of China.</b>First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely hedge the supply restored by overseas economies, thus weakening the substitution effect attenuation brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of global total exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, global total exports rose by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rates of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's share of global exports dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the proportion of EU exports with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the proportion of ASEAN exports as a whole has shown a slow decline.<b>Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of production substitution effect, which has limited impact, and exports will remain prosperous in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the year</b></p><p>As of May 2021, among China's exports, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), medical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year, respectively, and the monthly pull rate of 28% export growth rate to China was 5.7% and 1.8%, respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by the mutant virus, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to the insufficient supply of vaccines, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is generally still below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has administered 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. With the gradual decline of China's demand for vaccines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used for supply and export. Therefore, the export of biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) will probably maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100% in the second half of the year, while the export of medical materials and pharmaceuticals will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. The disturbance of poor shipping will be greatly alleviated in the third and fourth quarters</b></p><p>Poor shipping is one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. The labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. China's container shortage caused by inefficient container turnover.<b>Looking forward to the second half of the year, the shortage of shipping and port labor caused by the pandemic will be alleviated with the vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency, so the drag of poor shipping on transportation efficiency will be obviously improved in the third and fourth quarters.</b></p><p>The labor shortage that caused poor shipping came from two aspects. On the one hand, because of the impact of the pandemic and massive fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits chose to stay home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers not being replenished in a timely manner. However, at present, the full vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the suspension of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to ease in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to the relevant data of the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on global international trade merchant ships, of which 15% come from India. After the second wave of epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port carrying Indian seafarers or ships passing through India, which increased the difficulty of seafarers' rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarers' rotation will gradually return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The restoration of port and seafarer labour will increase port capacity, thereby alleviating the problem of container accumulation at important ports. In addition, China's container manufacturers are also increasing their output. In the past five months, China's container exports have always remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers with increased capacity will gradually improve the current transportation efficiency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 5: Can Manufacturing Investment Continue to Repair?</b></p><p>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, at present, the capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, this year, both endogenous and exogenous financing of enterprises are guaranteed, and enterprises have the ability to invest additionally. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward track in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will be around 10% for the whole year, and the compound contracted growth rate will be 3.7% for 2019.</p><p><b>5.1. Manufacturing is still on the upward track in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs remain relatively optimistic about the future recovery of manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.</b>The entrepreneur confidence index, which has leading significance for manufacturing investment, has risen rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, the highest level in the past 10 years. In the third and fourth quarters, with the price of commodities under control, the profit expectation is expected to further improve. Therefore, on the whole, the manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profit of industrial enterprises reached 36.4% year-on-year, and the compound year-on-year ratio was 20.2% in 2019. The high profit growth rate also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened their willingness to actively invest in production expansion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of capacity utilization rate, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Under the background of improving demand side of global economic recovery, the demand for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year exists objectively</b>。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, down from the fourth quarter of last year, but still at the highest level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new projects was 15.6%, representing a compound year-on-year growth rate of 4%, and the compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of each month in 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has steadily increased since 2020. The steady increase in investment in new projects and construction and installation also confirms to a certain extent that the market demand for further increasing investment in manufacturing industry in 2021 is objective.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of financing situation, this year, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed, and enterprises have sufficient funds for additional investment.</b>In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, the profit of manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.</p><p><b>5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communication, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing lead the way</b></p><p>In 2021, global production recovery became the main theme, and under the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, export became a key clue in China's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communication and machinery are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, in the last three months, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that export is an important clue of manufacturing investment this year.<b>In terms of exports, this year's epidemic-related medicine, computer communication related to home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are expected to perform well, so the corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 6: What is the pace of consumption repair?</b></p><p>In the post-pandemic recovery path, there has been a clear difference between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and cannot resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that China's consumption will continue to recover as residents' income rises and the impact of the pandemic weakens, but due to the long-tail effect brought by the pandemic, the pace of consumption recovery may still be slow.</p><p><b>6.1. Restrictions on consumption imposed by residents' income will be gradually eased</b></p><p><b>From the total level, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level and consumption power of Chinese residents.</b>We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year conformity ratio. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the pandemic, thus limiting the spending power. However, this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption repair,<b>We believe that residents' income will steadily increase with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not be a long-term reason for restricting consumption.</b></p><p><b>Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to spend</b>。 The ratio of household consumption spending to income dropped to its lowest point after the pandemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again, and we think that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a great impact on residents' willingness to spend. In addition, the increase of residents' preventive savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens,<b>These factors will eventually fade, but it will take a long time for the change of residents' willingness to spend, especially their willingness to save, to reverse, so the future consumption recovery will still be a relatively slow process.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2. Consumption structure will gradually balance</b></p><p>Structurally, catering and travel-related consumption remains suppressed; In particular, consumption below the quota is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail volume, the recovery of the catering industry is far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe that this reflects two problems:<b>First, the willingness of residents to go out for dining is still low due to the impact of the epidemic, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering income. Second, during the pandemic, many small businesses may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above the designated size. However, the closure of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so it will also affect the total consumption. It will take a relatively long time for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption repair will be relatively slow</b>。</p><p>The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease in residents' willingness to travel after the pandemic, oil consumption growth remained weak even under last year's ultra-low base. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be repaired quickly.<b>The consumption structure will be more balanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?</b></p><p>We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.</p><p><b>7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policy</b></p><p>At present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc all over the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused a serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Europe and America. Since current vaccines are still protective against the virus, and vaccine accessibility in European and American countries is much higher than in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, the spread of a new round of local epidemic in China in Guangdong has also been controlled. There have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.<b>In summary, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that the pandemic will break out again on a large scale in major economies. The following analysis of the monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continuous control of the pandemic. But we also do not rule out the tail risk of the mutated virus shutting down the world's major economies again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.2. The normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lead to global synergy</b></p><p><b>As mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, some emerging economies have started to move ahead of rate hike this year</b>For example, the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates twice in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian central bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised 200 basis points at a time in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea has also publicly stated that interest rates will be raised by the end of the year.</p><p><b>We believe that this round of rate hike in some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of currency normalization of the Federal Reserve in the future, and it is also in line with historical experience</b>。 Many views in the market believe that the rate hike of emerging economies is mainly responding to high inflation, but high inflation itself is the result of the combined force of supply and demand contradiction and global liquidity easing. If we consider the economy purely, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered, and it seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment of the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the range should not be too large, which is inconsistent with the policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies that have taken action at present. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2015, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the leading rate hike was about a year ahead of the Federal Reserve. Against the background that the US economy has recovered beyond expectations and the FMOC meeting of the Federal Reserve is close to the hawkish statement, this rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for the future policy shift of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3. China's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year, and it will be difficult to turn loose</b></p><p>In the second quarter, China's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically flat, and the growth rate of social financing slowly declined. Combined with the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe that<b>In the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to loosening, so as to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.</b>According to the monetary policy implementation report of the central bank in the first quarter, while managing the main gate, the next stage of monetary policy will further play the leading role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, which will still become an important focus of monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.</p><p><b>7.3.1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in place</b></p><p><b>China's monetary policy follows the principle of \"inside\" and \"outside\", but the expected change of monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve has no impact on China's policy</b>。 From the historical experience, in response to the sharp downward risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve started its rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and has not adjusted its benchmark interest rate so far. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Fed's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the regular meeting of the central bank in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer \"strengthening the coordination of international macroeconomic policies and preventing external shocks\".</p><p>The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy were also relatively large, and lessons should be learned. China's stock market and housing prices in various cities have risen in turn. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with the stock market crash, while the housing bubble made the housing prices remain high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and at the same time, it is more difficult to control the stability of housing prices in the later period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.2. Monetary Policy Targets: Insufficient Reasons for China's Turn to Loosening in the Second Half of the Year</b></p><p><b>First, from the price target of monetary policy, the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be higher, which does not mean that prices can be eased if they go down</b>。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter the downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we don't think that if the inflationary pressure is small, the monetary policy can be loosened, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not constitute the reason that the currency should be tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment targets of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth continues to recover steadily and sustainably, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and the pressure of steady growth and employment is small.</b>On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the epidemic. The results of employment protection are remarkable, and the pressure is significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year with 2019 as the base period, and the economic vitality has recovered strongly. The GDP forecast for the second quarter reached 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited, and consumption fluctuates due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged, and manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a relatively strong growth trend.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter to be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer declining, and remaining at a high level</b>。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculation, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will remain stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, the economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and the monetary policy does not need to release water to further promote macro leverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, judging from the goal of basically stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, the pressure of strong trend appreciation of RMB during the year is not great.</b>In April, there was an obvious appreciation of RMB. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance to monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7.3.3. Current currency volume, price and credit at desirable levels</b></p><p><b>First, from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past decade, and there is basically no room for further easing.</b>As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate has dropped by 2.2% after the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past decade. At present, there is no room for downward adjustment. The market's expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates is also relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the quantity indicators of monetary policy, the recent liquidity operation is mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate remains stable.</b>In the second quarter, the central bank's total net investment in open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which were increased in response to the tightening of liquidity in June. Generally, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds were basically abundant. That is to say, reasonable and abundant liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.</p><p><b>Third, from the point of view of credit, it is the policy goal to basically match the growth rate of money supply and social financing with nominal GDP. At present, there is no need to shift to easing</b>。 This year's government work report clearly states that the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the following figure, both the quarterly growth index of nominal GDP and the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month), the proxy variable of GDP growth rate, basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year. This year's growth rate of social financing will generally drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and in the second half of the year, it may rebound slightly with the decrease of the base. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.</p><p>All in all, we analyze it from multiple angles. The reasons for China's monetary policy to shift to loosening in the second half of the year are not sufficient, so we should pay attention to the risk of this expectation in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Outlook 8: What is the short-term and long-term trend of RMB exchange rate?</b></p><p>The exchange rate of RMB has experienced great ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, RMB still has a strong fundamental basis for appreciation.</p><p><b>8.1. RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not enter a depreciation cycle</b></p><p><b>Looking back on the trend of exchange rates of various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, as is the RMB exchange rate.</b>In February last year, the epidemic first broke out in China, and the RMB depreciated. In March, when the overseas epidemic broke out and caused a liquidity crisis in the US dollar, all non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the plight of the epidemic, the economy recovered rapidly, and the RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the United States in autumn and winter began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while the popularization of vaccines in Europe accelerated, and the non-agricultural data was less than expected. The US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The RMB accelerated its appreciation in late May. After June, with the regulation of the central bank and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since April, the RMB has experienced a large appreciation, which is too fast. We believe that there is adjustment pressure in the short term.</p><p><b>First, the RMB is appreciating faster than the fundamental basis.</b>Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second quarter and third quarter of this year are the stages when the comparative advantage of the US economy is more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of RMB at this stage is away from the economic fundamentals.</p><p><b>Secondly, judging from the attitude of the central bank towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive exchange rate fluctuations, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system</b>。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, which has a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately stated its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, we don't think the RMB will depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.</p><p>Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of exchange rate, but only to suppress the excessive fluctuation of RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The basis of the final turnaround of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.<b>Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it is difficult to reverse the trend.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and it needs to import a lot to fulfill its commitment to the United States. This objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain firm to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products by a total of US$77.7 billion, US$32 billion and US$52.4 billion in two years on the basis of 2017 (the statistics of trade in services are not easy to discuss for the time being). According to U.S. -caliber trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by 2.11 billion, 4.52 billion and 2.09 billion US dollars in 2020.<b>So if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need a total of $153.4 billion more imports in these three areas this year</b>。 If you need to meet the two-year target, you need to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even without taking into account last year's shortfall, 2021 needs to increase by 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16%, respectively, compared with 2017.<b>Commitment fulfillment rates so far this year are still low and stressful.</b></p><p>Judging from the attitude of both China and the United States, both China and the United States have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The US even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering cutting tariffs on China.<b>Therefore, from the perspective of the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to have experienced a large depreciation at this time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>8.2. There is a basis for RMB to continue to appreciate in the medium and long term</b></p><p><b>Although there is pressure of RMB adjustment in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental basis of RMB appreciation is still strong.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more robust by comparison.</b>During the pandemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooded monetary and fiscal policies, and the balance sheets of central banks expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of M2's year-on-year growth rate is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. Fiscal policy is also limited. The absence of strong stimulus means less pressure to withdraw from future policies. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have largely returned to normal this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy exit. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious reverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. The depreciation of exchange rate will cause inflation to rise, which is behind the influence of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, which is behind the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that long-term inflation centers in developed countries will rise, while inflationary pressures in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheating of housing, a recovery in the services sector and rising energy prices, while<b>China's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of the yuan, which in turn supports the exchange rate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of monetary policy, different from the depreciation cycle of RMB in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\", and the two are in the same direction, instead of the situation when the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. So<b>The normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Risk: The global epidemic has spread again, and policies have been tightened too quickly.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A\">东北宏观by凤来仪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3818aa8c04676880c8fa36fc370f4054","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129945496","content_text":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样？随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？我们认为2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。\n\n\n报告正文\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？\n我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n1.1.美国在疫情控制上可能具有相对优势\n自全球疫情爆发以来，决定各国经济复苏速度的首要因素就是疫情控制情况。中国率先控制住疫情，复工复产顺利推进，经济重启，成为了2020年主要经济体中唯一实现正增长的国家。而其它国家疫情均出现了大规模的反弹，经济始终无法全面开放。能够在疫情防控上取得领先的国家毫无疑问将获得巨大的相对优势。\n对于海外各国而言，疫苗普及率和疫苗的有效性是能否成功防控疫情的关键。在疫苗的普及方面，发达国家具备先天的优势。欧美国家是很多种疫苗的生产国，同时垄断了大部分疫苗的产量。而新兴经济体大多难以在短时间内获得疫苗。所以近期发达国家疫情防控形势普遍好于发展中国家。目前美国疫苗普及速度虽然放缓，但是新增病例已经持续下降，反映出疫苗普及对疫情防控确实起到了明显作用。而且美国拒绝接种的人群大多为年轻人，对新冠病毒的免疫能力更强，所以疫苗普及速度的放缓并未造成疫情反弹。\n从疫苗有效性方面来看，目前全球主要的新冠疫苗分三种：mRNA疫苗，以辉瑞-Moderna疫苗为代表；腺病毒载体疫苗，以牛津-阿斯利康疫苗为代表；灭活疫苗，以中国疫苗为代表。我们选取了美国以及加拿大、英国、智利几个疫苗普及率均很高的国家分析。其中，美国和加拿大接种的疫苗以mRNA疫苗为主；英国接种的疫苗的疫苗以腺病毒载体疫苗和mRNA疫苗为主；智利接种的疫苗以灭活疫苗为主。\n从疫情控制情况来看，目前美国7日平均新增病例稳步下降，加拿大疫情也得到了较好的控制。而英国近期疫情出现了明显反弹。有医学专家表示英国新增病例中大部分为新冠病毒的变种Delta病毒，而腺病毒载体疫苗对Delta病毒的防控效果不佳。智利疫情自6月以来开始下降，不过速度相对美国和加拿大较慢。目前医学上对几种新冠疫苗的有效性尚无定论，但从数据上看，短期内似乎mRNA疫苗在疫情防控上更具优势。我们分析了更多的样本国家，大多符合这一结论，在此不一一列举。\n美国疫苗接种以mRNA疫苗为主。相对应的，欧洲国家接种了较大量的腺病毒载体疫苗。日本到目前为止仍然接种率偏低，仅与世界平均水平相当。而新兴市场疫苗接种进度普遍落后。所以在今年下半年美国在疫情防控方面可能具有一定相对优势，有望先行控制住疫情并实现经济的完全开放。我们的基本假设是三季度是美国疫情得到控制、经济完全开放的时点。这是美国经济能够继续强劲复苏的必要条件。\n\n\n1.2.美国就业市场有望加快复苏\n美国4月和5月的非农就业数据不及预期，这也是此前压制美元、美债收益率和阻碍美联储货币政策正常化的重要因素。但我们认为美国就业放缓是暂时的，三季度美国就业市场有望加速复苏。\n导致4、5月份美国就业数据不及预期的主要有以下三个因素：\n第一，美国政府对居民的现金补贴和失业金补贴降低了失业者找工作的急切程度。一些调查结果显示，相对于疫情之前，近期美国居民找工作是出于“经济压力”的比例更低了。很多失业者更愿意躺在家里领取财政补贴。共和党执政的州普遍计划更早结束失业救济金，民主党主导的州则将更晚退出。而相应的，疫情后共和党的红州失业率也明显低于民主党的蓝州。\n第二，疫情仍然影响着部分人外出工作的意愿。虽然美国民众中很多人并不在乎新冠病毒、也不注意防控。但也有很多人对此十分谨慎。美国求职网站ZipRecruiter的数据显示，有半数以上的求职者希望能够远程工作，然而只有10%的雇主会提供远程的职位，造成了供需的错配。只有疫情充分得到控制之后这个问题才能有效缓解。\n第三，由于众多学校、教育机构在疫情期间的封锁，儿童的父母居家照顾孩子的需求提升，难以外出工作。美国有相关调查表明，有低龄儿童的父母的复工率明显低于平均水平。\n很明显，以上三个原因的根本都在于疫情及相关影响，且都是短期因素，这些因素有望在三季度缓解。首先，目前美国已经有很多州计划提早结束失业救济金。按照各州目前计划，在7月10日之前将有半数州结束失业金，这将促使更多人外出寻找工作机会。其次，我们认为三季度美国疫情将持续缓解，经济有望全面开放，因担忧疫情而不去找工作的人数也将大大减少。再次，三季度随着各学校和教育机构重新开启，父母居家照顾儿童的需求也将降低，促使这部分群体外出工作。所以，我们认为三季度美国就业市场将有明显反弹，6月非农就业人数的超预期增长已经开始反映这一趋势。\n\n1.3.美国制造业补库存尚未结束，房地产市场仍存韧性\n我们认为美国生产修复带来的制造业补库存周期尚未结束，将对三季度经济有持续拉动，甚至可能持续至年底。我们对比了2000年以来美国典型的四次补库存周期的经验，分别为互联网泡沫后的补库存、金融危机后的补库存，2016年全球共振补库存及本次新冠疫情后的补库存周期。如下图所示，以各周期中库存同比的最低点为原点，补库存阶段通常会持续12个月以上，最长可达24个月左右。本轮周期中补库存的进程快于以往，但批发商和零售商补库存的趋势显然还没有结束，制造商补库存虽然冲高回落，但我们认为可能因为复工复产不完全。随着生产端的进一步复苏，制造商补库存也有望持续。不过从趋势对比来看，美国补库存周期很难在明年保持强劲势头。\n\n\n美国房地产市场开始出现降温迹象。不断上升的建房成本大幅推升了房屋价格，同时美国抵押贷款利率也在今年年初开始回升，这限制了居民的购房能力，加之房屋库存的短缺，使得房屋销售量开始下降。\n不过房屋建造支出仍将保持一定韧性。一方面，美国房屋销售虽然降温，但我们预计不会快速回落，因为利率绝对水平仍然不高，有新房源加入市场后会满足此前库存不足而无法释放的需求。另一方面，美国房地产补库存的需求仍在，房屋建造支出的周期滞后于销售周期，所以对经济的拉动仍然存在。\n\n\n1.4.服务业将随着经济开放而强劲复苏\n疫情爆发以来，强力的财政刺激政策带来了商品消费的V型反弹，甚至远强于疫情之前。但是服务业则由于经济的封锁而降至冰点，之后复苏的速度也较慢。\n根据牛津大学编制的政府封锁指数，由于疫情的影响，美国至今封锁程度仍然较高，这制约着服务业的复苏。而三季度随着疫情得到控制、经济完全开放，服务业恢复的空间很大。从就业情况来看，目前服务业相关行业就业人数较疫情之前仍有很大缺口，潜力很大。同时，我们认为服务业消费和商品消费有望相互促进而非挤出。目前美国居民收入仍然远远高于疫情之前，储蓄水平也大幅高于疫情之前，所以居民消费能力有充分保障。制约消费的并非预算约束，而是缺乏服务业的消费场景。\n\n\n综合以上几点原因，我们认为三季度美国疫情防控将具备相对优势，就业市场有望加速复苏，制造业、房地产业存在韧性且服务业将强劲复苏。所以下半年尤其是三季度美国经济表现仍将亮眼。\n不过从长期来看，美国本轮经济强势复苏的源头是远超其它国家的财政和货币政策刺激。未来美国难有新的纾困法案，而美联储货币政策也在正常化的途中，明年之后美国将面临政策退出带来的阵痛。从金融危机之后美国数轮QE的退出经验来看，货币政策的退出都会带来经济下行的压力。从上文的论述中也可以看出，制造业补库存和房地产的火热在今年大概率结束，所以美国经济今年的繁荣在长期难以持续。\n\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？\n通胀是今年全球宏观经济的核心关注点之一。而市场对通胀的看法较为两极化，一种观点认为由于贫富差距的扩大和全球化贸易重启，大通缩将为长期的趋势；另一种观点认为由于史无前例的货币放水和供给不足，全球未来将出现大通胀趋势。我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n2.1.美国长期通胀中枢会抬升\n从长期角度来看，虽然近期全球普遍存在的高通胀会最终回落，但我们并不认为会出现大通缩环境，未来通胀中枢将会高于过去十年，有以下两点理由：\n第一，本轮中巨量的财政刺激与货币刺激相配合，与以往危机后以货币政策为主的刺激方式不同。主要依靠货币政策刺激会导致大量货币滞留在金融体系之中，无法流入实体经济内，其结果是金融资产价格大幅上涨。而财政政策则能有效推动货币流入实体经济，从而推升实体通胀。今年全球大超预期的通胀就是财政政策效果的体现。\n“直升机撒钱”的另一个直接结果是造成了劳动力市场供给的不足，同时推升了工资水平。下图中展示了美国商品生产部门平均时薪和美国CPI的关系，可以看出当薪资水平增长与通胀相匹配时，通胀就存在持续上行的动力，比如20世纪70年代以及2001-2008年。而当薪资增长明显落后于通胀之时，通胀上升也会乏力，比如1980-2000年及2011-2016年。事实上近年来美国近两年工资水平一直在持续上升，这是推动通胀上行的重要动力，美国CPI同比在2017年和2018年就几度逼近3%。而疫情后这一趋势出现加速，薪资与CPI之比达到20世纪70年代的水平，这也将推动通胀继续加速上涨。通常这一趋势都不是短期之内可以终结的，虽然目前的劳动力供给不足很大程度上是由于短期因素，但不可否认劳动参与率的降低和疫情带来的经济结构变化也给劳动力供给带来了长期的影响，薪资上升推动通胀上涨的循环可能还会持续较长时间。\n\n第二，去全球化和发达国家的制造业回流政策会带来长期的通胀压力。2000年以来发达国家低通胀的一个众所周知的原因，就是全球化贸易的不断发展导致新兴经济体的廉价商品冲击了发达国家的商品价格，发展中国家巨量的低价供给使得发达国家无论如何刺激需求也无法拉动通胀。很明显的例子就是中国加入WTO之后，美国商品CPI迅速跳水，体现出全球化贸易带来的低通胀效应。\n但这一趋势已经受到了阻碍，甚至开始扭转。一是全球化贸易已经进入瓶颈，近年来全球贸易开放指数出现震荡下降，尤其是各国民粹主义政府上台之后，全球化遭遇的挑战更大，新兴市场的廉价商品压低发达国家通胀的趋势受阻，中美贸易摩擦就是典型的例子。二是发达国家普遍开始“制造业回流”计划。G7国家率先推行全球最低税率政策，意在吸引海外避税的公司回归本国。当前和未来的一系列政策目标都会是增加跨国公司在海外的成本，而跨国公司如果会到本国，也将面临更高的劳动力成本，成本的长期上升也会推动通胀的长期上行。\n\n2.2.当前宏观条件不具备大通胀的基础\n如上文所述，我们认为以美国为代表的发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升。那么是否会出现如上世纪70年代类似的大通胀？目前市场对通胀的关注点主要在于美国，我们以美国的角度出发，讨论是否存在大通胀（通胀率长期维持在5%以上）的基础。\n回顾美国百年来的通胀历史，可以看出明显的大通胀时期有三个：第一次世界大战时期，第二次世界大战时期，70年代石油危机时期。我们认为大通胀的基础主要有以下几点：\n\n第一，财政或货币的扩张导致货币供给量大增。一战与二战都是战争导致的财政赤字货币化，货币供给激增；而石油危机前实际上也是由于越南战争导致了美国货币供给大增，M2同比甚至远高于金融危机之后的天量放水时期。通胀的本质是货币现象，这一经济规律其实并未失效，但前提是实体经济中流通的货币增加。\n第二，货币政策需要有一定的空间刺激长期需求。当利率水平较高、货币政策空间较大时，降息等货币政策能够有效促进货币在实体经济中流通；而当利率水平很低时，货币宽松就容易陷入流动性陷阱，无法推动货币进入实体经济，进而在金融体系中空转，造成货币政策失效。\n第三，通胀预期的自我实现，这来自于货币政策目标的模糊。三次大通胀时期的共同特点似乎是供给端出现断层，分别表现为军用生产挤出民用生产，以及石油供给中断。但我们认为这只是表层原因，深层原因在于通胀预期的抬升。供给的缺口推升了通胀预期，而在三次大通胀时期，各国央行均未有明确的通胀目标，而是在经济和通胀之间反复徘徊，始终没有真正紧缩货币，导致市场对货币宽松有持续的预期，最终通胀预期与货币宽松预期相互促进，自我实现。\n\n此外，新兴经济体也可能会因为债务危机、货币贬值而导致输入性恶性通胀，不过我们在此只讨论大型经济体，不考虑此种情况.\n结合以上三点大通胀基础，我们来分析目前的状况。首先，财政及货币的巨量刺激，目前全球是符合这一情况的，美国政府债务率甚至超过了二战时期，其它国家也大多如此。全球M2飙升，货币供给泛滥。其次，货币政策有一定空间。这一点是不满足的，发达国家目前几乎全部是零利率或负利率，美联储资产负债表上积压大量基础货币，流动性陷阱的特征明显。最后，通胀预期的自我实现，这一点在当前难以实现。因为现在全球央行基本都设立了明确的通胀目标，对管理市场预期起到了非常重要且有效的作用，市场不再认为央行会无视通胀而刺激经济。虽然美联储改变了通胀的框架，但仍然有明确的管控通胀的要求，与过去大通胀时期完全不同。货币政策对通胀目标的限定使得市场难以出现过高的通胀预期。\n综合以上几点，我们认为目前全球并不具备大通胀的基础，难以出现持续的过高通胀。\n2.3.短期大宗商品价格大概率回调，但幅度预计有限\n论述了长期通胀前景后，我们回归对年内通胀的走势判断。我们认为近期大宗商品价格大概率已经见顶，可能会有所回调，从而缓解部分通胀压力。\n首先，全球M2增速已经出现拐点，指向大宗商品价格有下行压力。我们计算了G4和金砖四国的M2总和同比，这一指标与RJ/CRB商品价格指数同比有高度的相关性，大多时候具有领先性，少数时段为同步。领先时段多为半年左右。这一指标于今年2月见顶，经验上来看商品整体价格存在回调压力。\n\n其次，美联储逐步释放的收紧信号和中国政府的价格调控也有助于降低市场大宗商品的投机热度。近期数据来看，铜、原油等此前被市场投机者关注的品种已经明显降温。大宗商品市场正在向基本面回归。\n\n不过我们认为大宗商品价格的回调有限，难以出现价格的持续下降。\n首先，新兴市场生产恢复不快，难以迅速增加原材料供给。从荷兰经济分析局编制的全球各类别经济体生产指数来看，除去中国后的新兴经济体生产水平到一季度末尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，且在一季度末重新出现下行趋势。在新兴市场疫苗普及普遍落后、疫情防控情况不佳的情况下，原材料供给缺口何时能够弥补尚未可知。\n\n其次，虽然铁矿石、铜、煤炭等商品近期出现回调，但大宗商品之母——原油价格不断上涨。国际油价与中国煤炭、黑色、有色等大宗商品价格相关度极高，目前来看三季度油价大概率居高不下甚至继续上涨，将阻碍整体通胀水平的下行。\n\n基于以上判断，我们认为下半年在商品价格小幅回调及基数抬升的效应下，中国PPI同比将小幅回落，但将处于高位震荡，存在超预期的风险。不过CPI上升的压力很小。一方面中国消费复苏平稳，需求端不会出现暴增；另一方面猪肉价格快速下跌至较低的位置，大大拖累了CPI的增速。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样?\n随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n3.1.美联储缩减购债势在必行\n从客观的市场反应来看，目前美联储QE已经导致市场流动性过剩，继续购债的必要性在下降。美国隔夜逆回购数量已经攀升至历史高位，远远高于前几轮QE后期的情况。与中国逆回购投放流动性不同，美联储隔夜逆回购的上升意味着金融系统将货币存入美联储而换取债券等资产，即市场主动将“水”倒灌进美联储，表明市场流动性已经严重过剩。甚至为了维持利率走廊的下限，美联储6月会议不得不上调IOER和ONRRP利率各5个基点，以避免过量的流动性将短端利率下压至零以下。各种流动性过剩的迹象表明美联储有必要加快缩减购债的进程。\n\n从美联储的主观意愿来看，对缩减购债的预期引导也在稳步进行。虽然6月美联储会议并未正式讨论缩减购债，但鲍威尔指出已经准备讨论缩减购债，这与此前“不讨论缩减购债”的论调相比已经向前迈了一步。我们认为美联储本轮缩减购债将大致分为五个阶段：\n第一阶段：完全不讨论缩减购债。\n第二阶段：准备讨论缩减购债。\n第三阶段：正式讨论缩减购债。\n第四阶段：公布缩减购债的时间计划。\n第五阶段：正式开始缩减购债。\n这一过程充分体现出美联储与市场的沟通。目前美联储已经从第一阶段跨入第二阶段。预计7月或8月就将正式讨论缩减购债，三季度末或四季度初可能公布缩减购债的时间计划，可能在今年年末或明年年初正式开始实施。\n6月美联储会议透露出的另一个信号是，美联储不再完全无视通胀了。此前在CPI数据超预期上升时，美联储官员都会出面“降温”，强调通胀是短期因素，不会因此改变货币政策取向。但在6月会议上，鲍威尔指出“通货膨胀可能会比我们预期的更高、更持久”，意味着美联储已经承认自己可能会误判通胀。同时指出“如果通胀预期过高，将准备调整政策。”表明美联储已经不完全是淡化通胀的态度，而是随时做好了政策应对。如我们前文所述，美国长期通胀中枢将会抬升，短期也存在超预期的可能，这也会促使美联储加快货币政策正常化的步伐。\n3.2.美元将维持短期强势，美债收益率有望重拾升势\n由于本轮周期中美联储与市场沟通非常充分，对市场预期的引导也较为成功，所以我们认为美联储货币政策正常化的进程不会对市场造成很大扰动，股市不会因此受到明显冲击。不过随着收紧预期的逐步兑现，汇率和债市会有相应变化。\n我们认为在美联储紧缩预期之下，美元指数短期之内将维持较强势头，但不会进入强美元周期。我们在第一部分提到，美国三季度经济应会表现强劲，相对其它主要经济体有较大的相对优势，这是支撑美元的基本面基础。同时我们认为美联储货币政策收紧的预期会在三季度逐步升温，这是美元强势的政策面基础。\n不过从长期来看，美联储货币政策正常化不必然带来美元的强周期。回顾2008年之后美国几轮QE的经验，每次QE退出会带来美元的短期强势，但势头能否维持仍取决于美国经济基本面是否真正转好。QE3退出后虽然美元进入了强周期，但当时的更大背景是欧债危机再度爆发，欧元区QE预期不断升温并最终落地，被动推升了美元。而目前从欧洲几个主要债务国和德国的国债利差来看，欧债危机的风险已经大大减弱，欧元区货币政策正常化进程虽然慢于美国，但很难出现2014-2015年反向操作的情况。而如上文所述，我们认为明年之后美国经济很可能出现相对劣势，所以美元长期来看难以维持强劲势头。\n\n\n对于债市而言，美联储6月鹰派会议之后出现了一个较为有趣的现象：短端利率快速上升，但长端利率反而大幅下行，收益率曲线扁平化。这反映出市场目前对美联储短期加快收紧货币政策甚至加息是不怀疑的，但对于长期经济和通胀并没有信心。这与我们对美元指数的判断逻辑是部分相符的，美元表现与美国短端利率相关性更大，而长期来看则不易维持强劲。\n但我们认为三季度长端利率仍有较大的上行的风险。目前市场对长期增长悲观的很重要原因在于就业数据表现不够亮眼，即使6月份非农就业数据超预期上升，但失业率也反常走高，并不能够打消市场忧虑。同时随着近期大宗商品价格回调，通胀预期也有所下降。但如上文所述，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度有望加速复苏，而通胀也难以很快下降，所以美债长端收益率在短暂回调之后可能继续上升。\n\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？\n在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n4.1.下半年基数升高，出口增速逐季下降\n2020年从第三季度起，由于对疫情的良好控制，中国率先恢复生产，替代效应导致下半年出口表现亮眼，而对应的高基数将导致2021年下半年的出口同比增速受到明显抑制。2020年6月份中国出口总额同比增长0%，而7月份同比增长跃升至7%，且之后进一步提速，在11、12月同比增速分别高达21%与18%。在如此高基数的影响下，今年三四季度难以维持上半年的出口总额的超高同比增速。从数据上来看，即使假设下半年保持了第一季度对2019年13%的复合增速，那么三四季度的出口也将分别自然从一季度的49%大幅回落至18%和9%，故基数效应的影响在下半年的出口增速表现上起着主导作用，出口增速的逐季回落将是确定性的。\n\n4.2.全球需求端好转，对冲供给端的替代效应的衰减\n4.2.1. 全球经济修复带来的需求改善，是下半年出口的核心基本面\n中国作为世界工业大国，是全球产业链中极为重要的一环，故在历次的全球经济复苏过程中，中国的出口表现均十分亮眼。从数据上看，中国出口总额同比增速与OECD的实际GDP同比增速之间在大趋势和拐点上有着较强的相关性，也印证了在全球需求端好转的背景下，中国的出口表现往往不弱。\n\n当前虽然仍有疫情扰动，全球经济复苏尚不均衡，但从发达国家及全球整体来看，经济复苏的态势已经十分明显，且随着疫苗的接种，全球经济将持续转好，大势不改。从数据上来看，目前OECD综合领先指标在2021年3月份以来超过100且仍在持续扩张，反映出未来6个月全球的经济增长将保持强势。同时，截至6月30日，WTI原油现货价达73.47，波罗的海干散货指数达3383，油价和上游原材料的运价不断创出新高，也在一定程度上指向当前全球工业的蓬勃发展。\n\n所以，我们认为中国出口的基本面并没有走坏，出口的支撑逻辑发生了一定的变化，由之前的供给端生产替代主导，逐渐转化为全球需求端拉动中国出口。此外，从中国出口结构来看，2021年以来对出口增速拉动最为明显的项目均为工业生产的中游原材料及中游机械设备，也印证了我们逻辑转换的观点。\n\n4.2.2.   需求面拉动可极大程度对冲生产替代效应减弱的影响\n下半年全球的经济复苏将成为中国最核心的出口基本面。首先，全球需求总量的上升，对中国出口有着直接的拉动作用；其次，这种新释放出来的需求边际增量将很大程度上对冲海外经济体所恢复的供给，从而减弱海外供给恢复给中国带来的替代效应衰减。从数据上来看，在2019年全球出口总额全年负增长的背景下，中国出口占比仅为13%至14%。而2021年3月和4月全球出口总额同比分别大幅上涨26%与47%，对比2019年的复合增速高达7%与5%。在此期间中国在全球的出口份额降低至15%左右。同时，近一年来，疫苗接种较好的欧盟出口份额占比仅始终围绕13%小幅震荡，而东盟出口份额占比整体呈现出缓慢回落的形态。故全球需求端的复苏在极大程度上对冲了生产替代效应的衰退，生产替代效应的衰退影响有限，下半年出口将保持景气。\n\n4.3.下半年疫苗医药的出口仍有韧性\n截至2021年5月中国出口商品中，生物技术（疫苗等）、医药材及药品分别同比增加1240%和99%，对中国28%的出口增速的当月拉动率分别为5.7%和1.8%。目前欧洲仍受变异病毒影响，而东南亚等新兴经济体疫情正在爆发，由于疫苗供给不足，新兴经济体疫苗接种率普遍仍在10%以下，对中国疫苗和药品的需求仍大。同时截至2021年6月30日，中国已接种12.4亿剂新冠疫苗，随着中国对疫苗需求量的逐渐下降，大量疫苗产能可以用于供应出口，故下半年生物技术相关商品（疫苗等）的出口将大概率至少维持100%以上的复合同比增长，而医药材及药品的出口将至少保持50%以上的复合同比增速。\n\n4.4.航运不畅的扰动将在第三四季度大幅缓解\n航运不畅是此前影响中国进出口的重要因素之一。当前航运不畅的主要原因来自于：1.疫情造成的劳动力短缺；2. 集装箱周转低效导致的中国集装箱短缺。展望下半年，疫情导致的航运及港口劳动力的短缺等问题将随着疫苗的接种和就业市场的复苏而得到缓解；而集装箱的短缺，将随着集装箱的大量生产和周转效率的加快而得到解决，故航运不畅对运输效率的拖累在三四季度将会有明显好转。\n造成航运不畅的劳动力短缺来自于两方面，一方面是因为疫情和大规模财政刺激的影响，许多接受失业补助的工人选择呆在家里，导致了港口工人和货运司机无法得到及时的补充。但目前美国疫苗完全接种率已高达46%，随着美国失业救济的停止发放，以及疫苗的进一步普及，港口劳动力的短缺有望在下半年得到缓解。另一方面是海员的劳动力短缺，据国际航运公会相关数据，全球国际贸易商船上共有约164.7万名海员，其中15%来自于印度，而印度爆发第二波疫情后，全球多国的港口开始拒绝载有印度海员或途径印度的船只入港，增加了海员轮换的难度。而数据显示，印度疫情的高峰已过，海员轮换的进程将逐渐回归正常。\n\n港口及海员劳动力的恢复，将提高港口运力，从而缓解重要港口的集装箱堆积问题。此外，中国集装箱生产企业也在加大产量，近5个月以来中国集装箱出口同比始终保持在150%以上，新增集装箱的补充和运力增加后的空箱更快返回亚洲，都将逐渐改善当前的运输效率。\n\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？\n从盈利预期来看，今年企业家加大投资的意愿较强；从产能利用率来看，目前现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，而海外需求端还在不断走强；从资金端来看，今年企业内源性和外源性融资均具有保障，企业具有追加投资的能力。综合来看，2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n5.1.下半年制造业仍在上行通道\n从盈利预期来看，企业家对未来制造业的回暖保持相对乐观的态度，企业存在加大投资的意愿。对制造业投资具有领先意义的企业家信心指数自去年一季度见底以来一路快速上行，在2021年一季度达到144.7的历史最高位，同时制造业贷款需求指数也达72.2为近10年来的高位，且在三四季度随着大宗商品的价格得到控制，盈利预期有望进一步改善，故盈利端整体来看，今年制造业投资将保持景气。同时，截至2021年5月，工业企业利润当月同比高达36.4%，对2019年复合同比20.2%，利润增速的保持高位也提振了企业家信心，加强企业家主动投资扩产的意愿。\n\n从产能利用率来看，目前工业产能利用率仍在历史高位，现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，在全球经济复苏需求端好转的背景下，下半年对追加制造业投资的需求客观存在。2021年一季度，中国工业产能利用率为77.2%，随较去年四季度有所下滑，但是仍处在近10年来的高位。此外，截至2021年5月，固定资产投资完成额中，新建项目累计同比为15.6%，复合同比4%，复合增速自2021年以来稳步上升，且高于2020年各月份的累计同比增速。而建筑安装工程5月复合增速为5.6%，自2020年以来建安投资增速稳步上行。新建项目和建安投资的稳步增加，也在一定程度上印证了2021年市场对进一步增加制造业投资的需求客观存在。\n\n从融资状况来看，今年企业资金端具有保障，企业具有充足的资金追加投资。外源融资方面，4月中央政治局会议指出当前经济恢复尚不均衡、基础仍不稳固，稳健的货币政策要保持流动性合理充裕，强化对实体经济、重点领域、薄弱环节的支持。在此政策基调下，制造业企业的外源融资具有保障。内源融资方面，今年制造业盈利企稳回升，5月工业企业利润总额达8299亿元，处在历史高位，内源性资金的增强，亦可加强企业进一步投资的能力。\n5.2.结构方面：医药、计算机通信、中游原材料与机械制造领跑\n2021年全球的生产恢复成为主旋律，在海外需求端改善及主动补库进程开启的背景下，出口成为我国国民经济中的关键线索。计算机通信、机械设备这类典型的出口依赖型行业，面临着更好的盈利预期；疫情相关的医药制造业也由于新兴经济体的疫苗供给匮乏和疫情反复而具有较好的基本面支撑。数据上来看，最近3个月相关行业的固定资产投资完成额累计同比确实在持续地边际改善，也进一步印证了出口是今年制造业投资重要线索。出口方面，今年疫情相关的医药，宅经济和生产替代相关的计算机通信，生产复苏相关的中游原材料与机械制造预计都将具有较好表现，故对应行业也将领跑今年的制造业投资。\n\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？\n在疫情后的复苏路径之中，中国和海外各国出现了明显的分化。中国疫情防控得当，但政策刺激较少，故而呈现“生产强、消费弱”的格局，发达国家未能控制疫情、无法复工复产，但财政刺激规模巨大，呈现“生产弱、消费强”的局面。我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n6.1.居民收入对消费的限制会逐步缓解\n从总量层面来看，中国消费恢复较慢的原因有两个：一是疫情之后的经济衰退导致中国居民的收入水平明显下降，消费能力下降。我们以城镇居民人均可支配收入的两年符合同比来衡量，直到今年一季度居民收入的增速也与疫情前的差距较大，从而限制了消费能力。但这也反映出居民消费修复的空间仍大，我们认为居民收入会随着经济的逐步复苏而稳步增加，这一因素并不会成为制约消费的长期原因。\n二是疫情导致居民的消费意愿也有所下降。居民消费支出与收入之比在疫情后降至最低点。今年一季度消费收入比再度下降，我们认为今年就地过年的政策对此产生了较大干扰。不过数据也反映出疫情仍然对居民的消费意愿有较大影响。此外，后疫情时代居民的预防性储蓄增加，也是压制消费的重要原因。随着疫情影响逐步淡化，这些因素终会消退，但居民消费意愿尤其是储蓄意愿的改变需要较长时间才能反转，所以未来消费复苏仍会是相对缓慢的过程。\n\n6.2.消费结构会逐步趋于均衡\n从结构上看，餐饮和出行相关消费仍然受到抑制；尤其是限额以下消费十分惨淡。作为占社零总额10%以上的行业，餐饮业恢复情况远远落后于平均水平。不过值得注意的是限额以上企业餐饮收入总额已经充分恢复，甚至高于疫情前水平。我们认为这反映出两个问题：第一，疫情影响导致居民外出餐饮的意愿仍然较低，总餐饮收入增速很低印证了这一点。第二，疫情期间可能很多小型企业已经倒闭，导致其消费被限额以上企业部分替代。但大量小企业的倒闭会导致很多消费场景的缺失，所以这也会影响到总量消费。小企业回归市场则需要相对更长的时间，所以消费修复的复苏也将相对缓慢。\n与外出相关的消费恢复落后于其他行业，比如服装类消费，石油类消费。由于疫情后居民出行意愿的降低，即使在去年超低的基数之下，石油类消费增长仍然疲软。但也可以看出这些行业正在边际改善，且增速提升较快。随着疫情影响的缓解，与外出相关的行业消费将有较快修复，消费结构将会更加趋于均衡。\n\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？\n我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n7.1.“德尔塔”病毒是影响货币政策的不确定性因素\n目前全球的疫情防控面临新的变数，“德尔塔”变异病毒开始肆虐全球，从南亚开始，快速对东南亚、东亚以及欧美地区的部分国家造成了严重影响。由于目前的疫苗对该病毒仍然有保护性，且欧美国家的疫苗可及性比发展中国家高得多，因此该变异病毒尚未对发达国家的疫情防控产生严重影响。近期发生在广东的中国新一轮局部疫情蔓延也得到控制，广东已连续超过10日无新增本土病例。综上，我们预期下半年，随着全球疫苗接种的进一步推进，主要经济体的疫情再次大规模爆发的可能性不大，以下货币政策展望的分析基于疫情持续控制背景下经济平稳复苏的判断。但是我们也不排除变异病毒再次让全球主要经济体停摆的尾部风险。\n\n7.2.美联储货币政策正常化会带动全球协同反应\n上文中我们提到，下半年美国货币政策正常化预期管理会加速推进将是大概率事件。在此背景下，今年以来部分新兴经济体已经开始行动，提前加息，比如巴西央行于3、5月加息两次，总共提高150个基点；俄罗斯央行于3、4月两次加息，总共提高75个基点；土耳其则于3月一次提升200个基点；韩国央行行长也公开表态在年底会上调利率。\n我们认为此轮部分新兴经济体加息，是对高通胀和应对美联储未来货币正常化风险的综合考量，也符合历史经验。市场很多观点认为，新兴经济体加息主要是应对高通胀，但高通胀本身是供需矛盾叠加全球流动性宽松的合力结果。如果单纯从经济考虑，当前很多新兴国家经济尚未完全恢复，货币政策似乎应该更多注重经济的复工复产和就业，加息的必要性不强，幅度也不应过大，这与当前已经行动的新兴经济体央行政策行为不一致。从新兴经济体的历史加息经验来看，在上一轮美联储2015年加息之前，新兴经济体往往提前准备，先行加息大约领先美联储一年左右。在美国经济恢复超预期以及美联储FMOC会议接近鹰派表述的背景下，此次新兴经济体加息应不仅仅解读为应对通胀风险，也是对未来美联储政策转向提前准备。\n\n7.3.下半年我国货币政策会保持定力，难转宽松\n二季度我国货币政策保持定力，流动性释放和回笼基本持平，社融增速缓速下降。结合前文对下半年经济形势的判断，综合以下各类因素分析，我们认为下半年我国的货币政策会继续管好货币总闸门，不会转向宽松，维持市场流动性合理充裕。虽然货币政策在总量上的不会进一步宽松，但是货币政策结构性支持实体经济发展的效能不会减。根据一季度央行货币政策执行报告，下一阶段的货币政策在管好总闸门的同时，也会进一步发挥好再贷款、再贴现和两项直达实体经济的结构性货币政策工具的牵引带动作用，这在当前和未来仍然会成为货币政策支持推动实体经济高质量转型升级的重要着力点。\n7.3.1.国际货币政策总体协调仍然是成立的\n我国货币政策遵循先内而外，以我为主，但美联储的货币政策风向预期转变对中国政策不可谓没有影响。从历史经验来看，为应对经济大幅下行风险，2014至2015年美联储缩表期间，中国央行启动多轮降准降息，货币政策明显宽松。但是在美联储启动加息的前的两个月，中国央行亦停止降息，至今没有再调整过基准利率。因此，认为美联储的货币政策完全不影响我国政策是有失偏颇的。从二季度的央行例会表述来看，与第一季度相比，措辞也更加明确“加强国际宏观经济政策协调，防范外部冲击”。\n上一轮我国降准降息政策的副作用也比较大，应当吸取教训。我国先后出现股市和各线城市房价的轮番上涨，最终股市泡沫以股灾结束，而房产泡沫则使得房价居高不下。货币政策对实体经济发展支撑有限，同时也增加了后期控制房价稳定的难度。\n\n7.3.2.货币政策目标看我国下半年转向宽松的理由不充分\n第一，从货币政策的物价目标看，下半年通胀压力会比上半年小，但PPI指数仍会较高，并非物价下行就可以宽松。当前的CPI不高，6月份公布的PMI数据也验证PPI已经大概率见顶，未来进入下行通道。虽然通胀压力比上半年要小，但下半年PPI的下降是缓慢的，通胀水平还会在高位盘整一段时间，总体压力并不小，因此我们并不认为通胀压力小了，货币政策就可以宽松，和上半年物价压力大也并不构成货币就应当紧的道理一样。\n\n第二，从货币政策的经济和就业目标来看，我们当前的就业保持景气，经济增长平稳持续恢复，高质量发展诉求高于高增速诉求，稳增长保就业压力较小。一方面，与2015年时候不同，当前决策层对经济质量的要求要高于增速的要求，不会因为一定程度的下行压力而放松货币供给。另一方面，目前中国经济恢复态势仍然较为平稳，宽松诉求不强。失业率来看，城镇调查失业率最近几个月一直下降，5月份录得5%，甚至已经低于疫情发生前的水平，保就业成果显著，压力明显降低。从经济增速来看，一季度以来的GDP增长快速恢复增速同比达到18.3%，以2019年为基期的同比增长10.25%，经济活力强劲恢复。二季度的GDP预期同比达到8.6%，世界银行6月份上调中国经济增长预期0.4个百分点，为8.5%。下半年GDP同比增长受高基数影响必然会下降，但很可能比预期更好，出口下降预计有限，消费受疫情影响有波动，但恢复的趋势不变，制造业投资预计保持较强劲的增长态势。\n第三，从货币政策的去杠杆目标来看，我们预计二季度宏观杠杆率与一季度基本持平，不再下降，保持在高位。今年一季度的杠杆率较去年四季度有所回落，降至267.8%，但主要源于一季度GDP的基数效应。根据我们测算，二季度的宏观杠杆率将与一季度基本持平，宏观杠杆率稳定在高位。控制总体杠杆的增速已然成为宏观政策的新课题，下半年经济发展同比会有放缓，但韧性较足，货币政策无需放水进一步推升宏观杠杆。\n\n第四，从人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的目标来看，年内人民币强势趋势性升值的压力并不大。4月份人民币出现一轮明显升值，5月底以来尤其美联储释放鹰派态度后，美元反弹，人民币汇率也小幅回调。我们预计下半年人民币大概率双向振荡，对货币政策指示性意义较弱。\n\n7.3.3.当前货币量价及信用在合意水平\n第一，从货币政策的价格指标看，政策利率已经处于近十几年的最低水平，基本不存在进一步宽松空间。7天逆回购利率作为政策利率，去年疫情后已经降低2.2%的水平，是近十几年来的最低水平，目前没有下调空间。市场对政策利率下调的预期也比较低。\n第二，从货币政策的量指标看，近期的流动性操作主要以维持流动性合理充裕为准，流动性的释放和回收基本持平，市场资金利率保持了平稳。二季度央行公开市场操作一共净投放不足1000亿，大部分是应对6月流动性趋紧而增加的投放，总体上可以认为二季度货币投放回笼基本持平，DR001和DR007基本保持平稳，表明银行间资金基本充裕。也就是说，资金不松不紧即可实现流动性的合理充裕。\n第三，从信用的角度看，货币供给和社融增速与名义GDP基本匹配是政策目标，目前来看也没有转向宽松的需要。今年的政府工作报告明确提出，保持货币供给和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配。从下图可以看出，无论是名义GDP的季度增长指标，还是GDP增长率代理变量——工业增加值增长率（月度环比），都与社融规模保持基本匹配。近几个月的社融增速已由年初的13%逐步下降到11%，目前我们仍然维持去年年末以来的预测，今年的社融规模增速总体会下降到10%-11%。5月M2增速录得8.3%，下半年随着基数降低可能出现小幅回升，如与社融增速结合看，基本可以实现与全年名义GDP增长基本匹配。\n总而言之，我们从多角度去分析，下半年中国货币政策转向宽松的理由均不是很充分，要注意市场出现这种预期的风险。\n\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？\n人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n8.1.短期内人民币将震荡调整，但不会进入贬值周期\n回顾去年以来各国汇率的走势，疫情是核心影响因素，人民币汇率亦是如此。去年2月份中国疫情率先爆发，人民币出现贬值。3月份海外疫情爆发并造成美元流动性危机，所有非美货币集体贬值，人民币兑美元下跌。随着5月份流动性危机缓解，中国率先走出疫情的困境，经济快速复苏，人民币进入了半年多的升值过程。今年年初美国秋冬季节的大规模疫情开始缓解，且疫苗普及加速，美元走强，人民币被动贬值。4月之后美国疫苗接种放缓，而欧洲疫苗普及加快，叠加非农数据不及预期等影响，美元兑欧元走弱，人民币兑美元也间接走强。5月下旬人民币加速升值。6月之后随着央行的调控和美联储鹰派会议，人民币兑美元出现回调。\n\n4月以来人民币已经经历了较大幅度的升值，速度过快，我们认为短期内存在调整压力。\n首先，人民币升值的速度超过了基本面基础。与去年中国率先控制疫情、强劲复苏相比，今年二季度与三季度是美国经济相对优势更加明显的阶段，人民币在这一阶段出现大幅度快速升值脱离了经济基本面基础。\n其次，从央行对汇率的态度来看，中国央行始终在避免汇率过快波动，因为这将影响金融系统和贸易体系的稳定性。5月下旬部分央行官员支持人民币升值的言论点燃了市场对人民币的升值预期，导致人民币快速升值，这其中有大量的投机因素存在。所以央行立刻表态抑制人民币过快波动。\n\n不过我们认为人民币不会因此大幅度贬值甚至进入贬值周期。\n从2015年“811”汇改以来的经验来看，央行对人民币汇率的调控都是逆周期的，并没有明确引导汇率升值或贬值的意愿，而只是抑制人民币的过快波动。而从效果来看，央行的管控只会对人民币汇率产生短期影响，很难影响大趋势。最终人民币汇率转折的基础在于经济和货币政策的基本面。所以此次央行虽然出手干预汇率，但难以就此扭转趋势。\n\n此外，从国际关系的角度来讲，目前中国正在面临中美第一阶段协议的较大压力，需要大幅进口以完成对美承诺，这客观上要求人民币汇率应保持坚挺以促进进口。中美第一阶段协议中，中国在制成品、农产品、能源产品几部分（服务贸易不易统计暂时不讨论）需要在2017年的基础上两年合计增加进口777亿美元、320亿美元及524亿美元。而根据美国口径的贸易数据，2020年中国自美国的进口量只增加了21.1亿、45.2亿和20.9亿美元，所以如果要完成中美第一阶段协议，中国今年在这三个领域需要共计增加1534亿美元的进口量。如果需要达到两年的目标，则需要分别达到149.87%，131.33%和657.69%的增速。即使不考虑填补去年的差额，2021年需要较2017年的增量也需分别达到88.82%，93.18%和443.16%。今年到目前为止的承诺完成率仍然不高，压力较大。\n从中美双方的态度来看，都有较强意愿完成第一阶段协议。美方甚至明确表示这是考虑对中国削减关税的条件之一。所以从完成进口承诺和维护中美关系的需求来看，人民币也不适宜在此时出现过大幅度的贬值。\n\n8.2.中长期人民币存在继续升值的基础\n虽然在今年下半年尤其是三季度人民币存在调整的压力。但从中长期来看人民币升值的基本面基础仍强。\n从经济长期增长的角度来看，中国经济相比之下更加稳健。在疫情期间全球主要央行都采取了大水漫灌的货币和财政政策，央行资产负债表极速扩张。相比之下，中国货币政策非常克制，M2同比增速的最高点仅与2016年之前的最低点相当。财政政策力度也有限。没有强力的刺激则意味着未来政策退出的压力也更小。事实上中国今年货币和财政政策已经基本回到正常轨道，而其它主要经济体则将面临政策退出的阵痛期。相比之下，未来中国经济增长将更加平稳，这也将增强人民币的吸引力。\n\n从通胀的角度来看，我们经过大量的分析，结果显示各国的通胀和汇率均有明显的反向关系。汇率贬值会引起通胀上升，背后是输入性通胀的影响；通胀上升也会引起汇率贬值，背后是购买力平价的原理。如上文所述，我们认为发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升，而中国通胀压力则相对较小。美国由于现金补贴、房地产过热、服务业复苏和能源价格上涨等原因引发了全面通胀，而中国CPI则处于很低的水平，这有助于维持人民币的购买力，进而支持汇率。\n从货币政策的角度来看，与2014-2016年人民币的贬值周期不同的是，目前美联储货币政策虽在正常化的途中，但中国货币政策也在“转弯”，二者是同向的，而非如2014-2016年美国收紧而中国大放水的情况。所以中国货币政策的正常化将部分抵消美联储收紧给人民币汇率带来的压力。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167400809,"gmtCreate":1624280280801,"gmtModify":1703832277071,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167400809","repostId":"2145308754","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161172727,"gmtCreate":1623914648169,"gmtModify":1703823383408,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161172727","repostId":"1186688505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186688505","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623891302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186688505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186688505","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目","content":"<p>June 17 news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>An announcement was made that the company issued 715 million shares at a price of HK$ 6.98 per share and 1,000 shares per lot, which is expected to be listed on June 18th.</p><p>During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>1000 shares per board lot with an admission fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate of one hand is 80%, and the subscription of three hands is stable.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:</p><p>For financing purposes, the Company intends to apply approximately HK$3,238 million of the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% or will be allocated to pasture to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purpose.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was founded in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, and its business layout covers the whole upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the Company is the largest upstream integrated dairy products and services provider in China.</b>The Company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments, namely raw milk and systematic solutions for ruminant farming. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the total revenue of the Company from 2018 to 2020 was RMB6,334 million, RMB7,668 million and RMB11,781 million, respectively, representing a CAGR of 36.4%; Net profits of RMB653 million, RMB802 million and RMB1,541 million were recorded for the same periods, representing a CAGR of 53.6%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>An announcement was made that the company issued 715 million shares at a price of HK$ 6.98 per share and 1,000 shares per lot, which is expected to be listed on June 18th.</p><p>During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>1000 shares per board lot with an admission fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate of one hand is 80%, and the subscription of three hands is stable.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:</p><p>For financing purposes, the Company intends to apply approximately HK$3,238 million of the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% or will be allocated to pasture to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purpose.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was founded in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, and its business layout covers the whole upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the Company is the largest upstream integrated dairy products and services provider in China.</b>The Company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments, namely raw milk and systematic solutions for ruminant farming. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the total revenue of the Company from 2018 to 2020 was RMB6,334 million, RMB7,668 million and RMB11,781 million, respectively, representing a CAGR of 36.4%; Net profits of RMB653 million, RMB802 million and RMB1,541 million were recorded for the same periods, representing a CAGR of 53.6%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186688505","content_text":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：申购阶梯：\n每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。\n据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。\n财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09858":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115871737,"gmtCreate":1622978884029,"gmtModify":1704194019432,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115871737","repostId":"2141285933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285933","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622947816,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285933?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 10:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285933","media":"36氪","summary":"从0到50万部，在2021年 Q1，小米成为智利增长最快的智能手机品牌。\n据市场研究机构 Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021年 Q1 智利智能手机出货量同比增长71%，达到创纪录","content":"<p>From 0 to 500,000 units, in Q1 2021, Xiaomi became the fastest growing smartphone brand in Chile.</p><p>Chilean smartphone shipments rose 71% year-on-year to a record 2.9 million units in Q1 2021, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. Among them, Xiaomi performed the most eye-catching, winning the third place in the market with 500,000 shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1,025%, making it the fastest growing smartphone brand in the region. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's market share in Chile also increased to 15.5% from 2.4% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a62fcc4249c35c8aa676f2643adcdf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In 2014, 4-year-old Xiaomi extended its tentacles overseas. For Xiaomi, Latin America, which loves \"buy, buy, buy\", is a fertile soil that needs to be developed urgently. Among them, Chile, as the third largest smartphone market in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, naturally can't be missed by Xiaomi.<b>Chile: A mature market to be developed urgently</b></p><p>Chile, is a country with high income, high internet penetration and high smartphone penetration. According to 2020 data from Worldmeter and the global economic index platform Trading Economics, Chile has a population of about 19 million people and a per capita GDP of more than $15,000, making it a high-income country.</p><p>In terms of Internet penetration, according to data from Digital Portal in January 2021, the Internet penetration rate in Chile is as high as 82.3%, with more than 15 million Internet users. Talking about the smartphone market in Chile, Counterpoint Research analyst Tina Lu said: \"Chile is the most mature market in Latin America, and it has the highest smartphone penetration and replacement rate in the region.\" Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics, also said: \"Chile is the third largest smartphone market in Latin America, second only to Brazil and Mexico. In 2021, although the country was affected by the epidemic, the demand for smartphones was still high. The 71% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2021 is enough to prove it.\"</p><p>Chile, which has a \"good\" smartphone development environment, is also a crucial step for Xiaomi's layout in the Latin American market. It is reported that as early as December 2018, Xiaomi has begun to lay out the Chilean market. However, when it first entered Chile, Xiaomi did not immediately deploy \"Xiaomi Authorized Store\" (Mi Store), but sold its products through some large shopping malls and mobile phone stores, but the sales volume did not seem to be very satisfactory. In order to further open up the Chilean market, on April 27, 2019, Xiaomi's first Chilean \"rice store\" opened in the bustling business district east of Santiago, the capital of Chile.</p><p>Regarding the reason why Xiaomi has achieved such a record in Chile this time, Rajeev Nair, senior analyst of Strategy Analytics, analyzed: \"Xiaomi's Redmi mobile phone has a high cost performance, which makes this mobile phone strongly recognized among Chilean consumers whose consumption is downgraded because of the epidemic, thus helping Xiaomi to gain the third position in shipments in the region and further increase its market share. In addition, the 'loss' of Huawei's mobile phone during this period also gave Xiaomi a lot of room for growth.\"</p><p>However, in Chile, Xiaomi has to face<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Lenovo-Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Wait for the encirclement and suppression of other competitors, especially Samsung, the giant that still \"dominates the market\". Woody Oh, director of Strategy Analytics, said: \"Samsung's smartphone market share in Chile remains relatively stable at the level of about 42%. In 2021, Samsung's smartphone shipments in Chile increased by 63% year-on-year.\" However, regarding Xiaomi's development space in Chile, Rajeev Nair, an analyst at Strategy Analytics, added: \"If the current growth trend continues, Xiaomi will surpass Lenovo-Motorola and become the second largest smartphone brand in Chile by the end of 2021.\"<b>Latin America: A Fertile Ground for Loving \"Buy, Buy, Buy\"</b></p><p>Latin America, generally referring to the region of America south of the United States, including Mexico, Central America, the West Indies, and South America. There are 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to UN data. In 2021, the population of the region has exceeded 650 million. Regional development in Latin America has not been balanced, despite not being low in GDP per capita (around $9,000 on average). Among them, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru are countries with high development level in this region, and they have also become the key markets for players in various tracks.</p><p>From the perspective of mobile phone penetration, according to Global Mobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communication system</a>By the end of 2020, nearly 70 percent of Latin American residents had a personal mobile phone, according to data from the Association (GSMA). For Latin American consumers, Samsung remains the most popular product in the region, alongside other brands such as Motorola, Apple, Huawei and LG.</p><p>In terms of market share, according to StateCounter's 2021 data, Samsung has a market share of up to 45% in the Latin American market, leading the way. In addition, Motorola and Apple ranked second and third with 16% and 10% market shares, respectively. Xiaomi and Huawei rank among the top five with similar market share. However, for Xiaomi, which began to lay out the Latin American market in 2015, such achievements are not eye-catching.</p><p>It is reported that as early as 2015, Xiaomi tested the Latin American market. As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil has become Xiaomi's first choice. However, at that time, Brazil's overall economic situation was not good, and consumers had to \"tighten their purses\" to live. Coupled with Brazil's high taxes and a series of \"unfriendly\" policies introduced by the government due to local protectionism, Xiaomi finally left the market in 2016 after frequent setbacks. After three years, Xiaomi, which has gained a certain popularity internationally, decided to return to Brazil. In June 2019, Xiaomi opened its first physical store in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subsequently, Xiaomi accelerated its layout in Latin America, and sold its products to markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay through online malls and offline \"rice stores\".</p><p>Today, Xiaomi's market share in major markets such as Brazil and Colombia is basically in the top five, and it entered the top three in the Chilean market in Q1 2021. However, today's Latin American market is still \"ruled\" by Samsung. In addition, Motorola, which has a strong \"mass base\", Apple, which has both popularity and strength, and Chinese brands such as Huawei, vivo, OPPO and realme are also eating into this fertile soil.</p><p>Xiaomi still has a long way to go to really \"win\" Latin America.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter seven years of overseas road, can Xiaomi \"win\" the Latin American market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From 0 to 500,000 units, in Q1 2021, Xiaomi became the fastest growing smartphone brand in Chile.</p><p>Chilean smartphone shipments rose 71% year-on-year to a record 2.9 million units in Q1 2021, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. Among them, Xiaomi performed the most eye-catching, winning the third place in the market with 500,000 shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1,025%, making it the fastest growing smartphone brand in the region. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's market share in Chile also increased to 15.5% from 2.4% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a62fcc4249c35c8aa676f2643adcdf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In 2014, 4-year-old Xiaomi extended its tentacles overseas. For Xiaomi, Latin America, which loves \"buy, buy, buy\", is a fertile soil that needs to be developed urgently. Among them, Chile, as the third largest smartphone market in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, naturally can't be missed by Xiaomi.<b>Chile: A mature market to be developed urgently</b></p><p>Chile, is a country with high income, high internet penetration and high smartphone penetration. According to 2020 data from Worldmeter and the global economic index platform Trading Economics, Chile has a population of about 19 million people and a per capita GDP of more than $15,000, making it a high-income country.</p><p>In terms of Internet penetration, according to data from Digital Portal in January 2021, the Internet penetration rate in Chile is as high as 82.3%, with more than 15 million Internet users. Talking about the smartphone market in Chile, Counterpoint Research analyst Tina Lu said: \"Chile is the most mature market in Latin America, and it has the highest smartphone penetration and replacement rate in the region.\" Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics, also said: \"Chile is the third largest smartphone market in Latin America, second only to Brazil and Mexico. In 2021, although the country was affected by the epidemic, the demand for smartphones was still high. The 71% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2021 is enough to prove it.\"</p><p>Chile, which has a \"good\" smartphone development environment, is also a crucial step for Xiaomi's layout in the Latin American market. It is reported that as early as December 2018, Xiaomi has begun to lay out the Chilean market. However, when it first entered Chile, Xiaomi did not immediately deploy \"Xiaomi Authorized Store\" (Mi Store), but sold its products through some large shopping malls and mobile phone stores, but the sales volume did not seem to be very satisfactory. In order to further open up the Chilean market, on April 27, 2019, Xiaomi's first Chilean \"rice store\" opened in the bustling business district east of Santiago, the capital of Chile.</p><p>Regarding the reason why Xiaomi has achieved such a record in Chile this time, Rajeev Nair, senior analyst of Strategy Analytics, analyzed: \"Xiaomi's Redmi mobile phone has a high cost performance, which makes this mobile phone strongly recognized among Chilean consumers whose consumption is downgraded because of the epidemic, thus helping Xiaomi to gain the third position in shipments in the region and further increase its market share. In addition, the 'loss' of Huawei's mobile phone during this period also gave Xiaomi a lot of room for growth.\"</p><p>However, in Chile, Xiaomi has to face<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Lenovo-Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Wait for the encirclement and suppression of other competitors, especially Samsung, the giant that still \"dominates the market\". Woody Oh, director of Strategy Analytics, said: \"Samsung's smartphone market share in Chile remains relatively stable at the level of about 42%. In 2021, Samsung's smartphone shipments in Chile increased by 63% year-on-year.\" However, regarding Xiaomi's development space in Chile, Rajeev Nair, an analyst at Strategy Analytics, added: \"If the current growth trend continues, Xiaomi will surpass Lenovo-Motorola and become the second largest smartphone brand in Chile by the end of 2021.\"<b>Latin America: A Fertile Ground for Loving \"Buy, Buy, Buy\"</b></p><p>Latin America, generally referring to the region of America south of the United States, including Mexico, Central America, the West Indies, and South America. There are 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to UN data. In 2021, the population of the region has exceeded 650 million. Regional development in Latin America has not been balanced, despite not being low in GDP per capita (around $9,000 on average). Among them, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru are countries with high development level in this region, and they have also become the key markets for players in various tracks.</p><p>From the perspective of mobile phone penetration, according to Global Mobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communication system</a>By the end of 2020, nearly 70 percent of Latin American residents had a personal mobile phone, according to data from the Association (GSMA). For Latin American consumers, Samsung remains the most popular product in the region, alongside other brands such as Motorola, Apple, Huawei and LG.</p><p>In terms of market share, according to StateCounter's 2021 data, Samsung has a market share of up to 45% in the Latin American market, leading the way. In addition, Motorola and Apple ranked second and third with 16% and 10% market shares, respectively. Xiaomi and Huawei rank among the top five with similar market share. However, for Xiaomi, which began to lay out the Latin American market in 2015, such achievements are not eye-catching.</p><p>It is reported that as early as 2015, Xiaomi tested the Latin American market. As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil has become Xiaomi's first choice. However, at that time, Brazil's overall economic situation was not good, and consumers had to \"tighten their purses\" to live. Coupled with Brazil's high taxes and a series of \"unfriendly\" policies introduced by the government due to local protectionism, Xiaomi finally left the market in 2016 after frequent setbacks. After three years, Xiaomi, which has gained a certain popularity internationally, decided to return to Brazil. In June 2019, Xiaomi opened its first physical store in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subsequently, Xiaomi accelerated its layout in Latin America, and sold its products to markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay through online malls and offline \"rice stores\".</p><p>Today, Xiaomi's market share in major markets such as Brazil and Colombia is basically in the top five, and it entered the top three in the Chilean market in Q1 2021. However, today's Latin American market is still \"ruled\" by Samsung. In addition, Motorola, which has a strong \"mass base\", Apple, which has both popularity and strength, and Chinese brands such as Huawei, vivo, OPPO and realme are also eating into this fertile soil.</p><p>Xiaomi still has a long way to go to really \"win\" Latin America.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202106061030337d494125&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6440ed998678ceba7821d81f1812c86f","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202106061030337d494125&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141285933","content_text":"从0到50万部，在2021年 Q1，小米成为智利增长最快的智能手机品牌。\n据市场研究机构 Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021年 Q1 智利智能手机出货量同比增长71%，达到创纪录的290万部。而其中，小米表现最为抢眼，以50万部的出货量夺得市场第三名，年同比增长高达1025%，成为该地区增长最快的智能手机品牌。与此同时，小米在智利的市场占有率也从去年同期的2.4%上升至15.5%。\n\n2014年，4岁的小米将触角伸向海外。对于小米来说，酷爱“买买买”的拉美是一片亟待开发的沃土。而其中，智利作为仅次于巴西和墨西哥的拉美第三大智能手机市场，小米自然不能错过。智利：亟待开发的成熟市场\n智利，是一个拥有高收入、高互联网渗透率和高智能手机普及率的国家。根据 Worldmeter 和全球经济指数平台 Trading Economics 2020年数据显示，智利拥有约1900万人口，人均 GDP 超过15000美元，属于高收入国家。\n互联网渗透率方面，根据 Digital Portal 2021年1月的数据显示，智利的互联网渗透率高达82.3%，网民人数达1500余万。而谈及智利的智能手机市场，Counterpoint Research 分析师 Tina Lu 表示：“智利是拉美地区最成熟的市场，其拥有该地区最高的智能手机普及率和更换率。” Strategy Analytics 执行董事 Neil Mawston 也表示：“智利是拉美第三大智能手机市场，仅次于巴西和墨西哥。2021年，该国虽然受到了疫情的影响，但民众对智能手机的需求仍旧很高。2021年 Q1 的出货量同比增长71%就足以证明。”\n拥有“良好”智能手机发展环境的智利，对于小米在拉美市场的布局来说也是至关重要的一步。据悉，早在2018年12月，小米就已经开始布局智利市场。然而，初入智利时，小米并没有马上部署“小米授权店”（米店），而是通过一些大型商场和手机专营店来进行产品的销售，但销量似乎并不是非常理想。为了进一步打开智利市场，2019年4月27日，小米的首家智利“米店”在智利首都圣地亚哥东部繁华商圈开业。\n而对于小米此次能够在智利取得如此战绩的原因，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 分析称：“小米旗下的红米手机具有很高的性价比，这使得该款手机在因为疫情而“消费 降级”的智利消费者中获得了强烈认可，从而帮助小米在该地区获得了出货量第三名的位置，也进一步提高了市场占有率。此外，华为手机此段时间的‘失利’也给了小米很大的增长空间。”\n不过，在智利，小米还要面对三星、联想-摩托罗拉、苹果等其他竞争对手的围剿，尤其是仍旧“制霸市场”的巨头三星。Strategy Analytics 总监 Woody Oh 称：“三星在智利的智能手机市场份额目前保持相对稳定，大约42%的水平。2021年，三星在智利的智能手机出货量同比增长 63%。”不过，关于小米在智利的发展空间，Strategy Analytics 的分析师 Rajeev Nair 补充道：“如果目前的增长趋势继续下去，小米将在2021年底之前超越联想-摩托罗拉，成为智利第二大智能手机品牌。”拉美：酷爱“买买买”的沃土\n拉丁美洲，通常泛指美国以南的美洲地区，包括墨西哥、中美洲、西印度群岛和南美洲。联合国数据显示，拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区共有33个国家。2021年，该区域人口已经超过了6.5亿。尽管人均 GDP 不低（平均9000美元左右），拉丁美洲区域发展并不平衡。其中，巴西、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、阿根廷、智利和秘鲁六国是这一区域发展水平较高的国家，也成为了各赛道玩家重点布局的市场。\n从手机渗透率来看，根据全球移动通信系统协会（GSMA）数据显示，截至2020年底，将近70%的拉美居民拥有个人手机。而对于拉美消费者来说，三星仍旧是该地区最受欢迎的产品，除此之外还有摩托罗拉、苹果、华为和 LG 等其他品牌。\n从市场占有率来看，根据 StateCounter 2021年的数据，三星在拉美市场的市占率高达45%，一路领跑。此外，摩托罗拉和苹果分别以16%和10%的市场份额位列第二、第三。而小米和华为以相差不多的市场占有率跻身前5名。然而，对于2015年就开始布局拉美市场的小米来说，这样的成绩不算亮眼。\n据悉，早在2015年，小米就曾试水拉美市场。而作为拉美最大经济体的巴西成为了小米的首选。然而，当时巴西整体的经济状况不佳，消费者不得不“勒紧钱袋”过日子，再加上巴西高昂的税收，以及政府因本土保护主义而出台的一系列“不友好”政策，小米在频频受挫后，最终于2016年遗憾离场。暌违3年之后，已经在国际上获得一定知名度的小米决定重回巴西。2019年6月，小米在巴西圣保罗开设了第一家实体店。随后，小米加快了在拉美的布局，通过在线商城和线下“米店”将产品卖到了巴西、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、智利和乌拉圭等市场。\n如今，小米在巴西、哥伦比亚等主要市场的市占率排名基本都在前五，并在2021年 Q1 进入了智利市场前三名。不过，如今的拉美市场仍旧被三星“统治”，除此之外，拥有强大“群众基础”的摩托罗拉、知名度和实力兼具的苹果，以及华为、vivo、OPPO 和 realme 等中国品牌也都在蚕食着这片沃土。\n想要真正“拿下”拉美，小米还有很长的一段路要走。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48652":0.6,"48708":0.6,"48709":0.6,"48717":0.6,"48728":0.6,"48730":0.6,"48736":0.6,"48754":0.6,"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115871212,"gmtCreate":1622978849036,"gmtModify":1704194018948,"author":{"id":"3577059908006860","authorId":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorIdStr":"3577059908006860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115871212","repostId":"2141285221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285221","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622959680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285221?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Golden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285221","media":"FX168","summary":"“超级周”黄金踏上“惊险之旅” 下周这一事件恐再掀起市场巨澜FX168财经报社(北美)讯 过去一周，受包括非农就业报告等经济数据以及有关美联储动向消息的影响，金融市场波动剧烈，现货黄金也随之跌宕起伏。周二，金价攀升至1月初以来最高水平1916美元，但最终收跌。本周，现货黄金下跌12.62美元或0.66%。展望下周，最值得关注的是下周四的美国CPI数据，上次CPI数据不及预期一度导致黄金大跌，因此市场下周将密切关注这一数据。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Original title: Golden Weekly Review: Too exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FX168 Financial News (North America) News In the past week, affected by economic data including non-farm payrolls report and news about the trend of the Federal Reserve, the financial market fluctuated drastically, and spot gold also ups and downs. Gold started the week with light trading in consolidation due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States. On Tuesday,<span>Gold price</span><span></span>climbed to $1,916, its highest level since early January, but ended lower. While buyers continued to hold on to $1,900 on Wednesday, the dollar's resumption of rally led to gold recording its biggest one-day percentage drop in three months on Thursday. During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 4th), the price of gold continued to slide, reaching the lowest level of $1,856 in more than two weeks. Disappointing labor market data in the US triggered a pre-weekend rally, though, with gold closing around $1,890, snapping a four-week rally.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Friday, spot gold closed at $1,891.03/oz, up sharply by $20.67 or 1.11%. It once hit the lowest level of $1,855.06/oz since May 19th, but then rose strongly and refreshed to a daily high of $1,896.13/oz. For the week, spot gold is down $12.62 or 0.66%.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"572,396\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/168/w572h396/20210606/c208-kracxeq7415210.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold daily trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">COMEX August gold futures closed down 1.9% at $1,873.30/oz, a new closing low in the last two weeks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Looking forward to next week, the most noteworthy thing is the U.S. CPI data next Thursday. The last CPI data was less than expected, which once caused gold to plummet, so the market will pay close attention to this data next week. The United States will also announce the number of initial jobless claims next Thursday. In addition, the market will also be closely watching the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision scheduled to be announced next Wednesday and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Highlights of the Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Economic Data Frequently Get Good News US Dollar and Gold Diving Hand in Hand</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Tuesday (June 1st), data released by the United States showed that the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The final manufacturing PMI was 62.1. Some commentators pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing sector performed well in the second quarter, with the PMI hitting a new high for the second consecutive month in May. New order inflows are climbing at the highest pace in 14-year survey history, driven by recovering domestic demand and record export sales.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Another data released later showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 in May, with both the expected and previous values at 60.7. According to some institutions, manufacturing activity in the United States picked up in May, and pent-up demand due to the reopening of the economy boosted orders, but there is still a lot of unfinished work due to shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"This data indicates that the overall economy has expanded for 12 consecutive months after the contraction in April 2020,\" the report said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The dollar weakened and approached a five-month low after data showed shortages of raw materials and labor led to more unfinished work despite a pick-up in U.S. manufacturing activity last month.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">the US Dollar Index fell 25 points in the short term, refreshing its daily low to 89.66, and once rose to 90.45 last Friday, when the US inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve recorded its biggest annual increase since 1992.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As the dollar fell, the price of gold fell sharply from its nearly five-month high earlier, as strong U.S. manufacturing data and higher U.S. bond yields weakened its appeal.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In the U.S. market, spot gold fell sharply below the 1900 mark in the short term, and reached a daily low of $1,892.26/oz, down $24 from the daily high.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/176/w575h401/20210606/dff3-kracxeq8533819.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"Gold has seen a slight pullback as U.S. stocks continue to rise and U.S. Treasury Bond yields start to move higher,\" said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">He added that investors may think that the Fed's policy of tapering bond purchases will be faster than expected.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">US economic data, the Federal Reserve continued to send heavy news, the US dollar \"one pillar holds the sky\" and the gold \"cliff falls\"</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Thursday (June 3rd), the latest series of economic data released by the United States showed strong performance. Private sector employment grew at its fastest pace in nearly a year in May, with businesses hiring nearly 1 million people, according to a report released Thursday by payroll processing firm ADP.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Hiring totaled 978,000 for the month, up sharply from 654,000 in April and the biggest increase since June 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 680,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adam Button, head of forex strategy at Forexlive.com, said: \"Despite the downward revision of April data, this is a very strong report. The non-farm payroll data is volatile, but the most important thing at present is the trend, and it is clearly accelerating improvement.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 385,000 in the week ending May 29th, which continued to reach a new low since the week of March 14th last year. It also marks the first time since the early days of the pandemic that jobless claims have fallen below 400,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The two subsequent data released also performed brilliantly: the final PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 70.4 in May, which continued to hit a new high since records began; The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 64 in May, a record high.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In addition, there is also a message from the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed announced it will begin selling ETFs in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The New York Fed said it will begin the gradual sale of corporate bonds in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7, starting with the sale of ETFs. The sale of corporate bonds will be gradual. And will take into account the day-to-day liquidity and trading conditions of exchange-traded funds and corporate bonds to minimize any adverse effects on the functioning of the market. Additionally, it is planned to start selling SMCCF's corporate bond holdings this summer, with more details to be provided later before the sale begins.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The strong data made the market more worried that the Federal Reserve would start tapering its bond purchases earlier, and the dollar strengthened as a result. The the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose to 90.55.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">With the rise of the US dollar, spot gold fell below the four major barriers of 1900, 1890, 1880 and 1870 US dollars/ounce one after another, falling below 1,870 US dollars for the first time since May 21st, falling more than 40 US dollars from the daily high, with an intraday drop of 2%, the largest intraday drop since February; spot goods<span>Silver</span><span></span>It fell 3.4%, the biggest intraday decline since March.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"573,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/174/w573h401/20210606/9e73-kracxeq8533987.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading, said: \"The ADP data is much stronger than expected, suggesting that there will be a similar rebound in employment data tomorrow, which pushes the US dollar significantly higher and triggers a long liquidation of gold below $1,890. The support level of $1,850-60 is significant, and gold must maintain these levels.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Non-farm accident missed expectations, US dollar \"flying down\", 2 minutes turnover exceeded $1.3 billion, gold soared $28</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday (June 4th), the number of new jobs in May was disappointing again, with an increase of 559,000, lower than expected. Employment is expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"740,433\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/373/w740h433/20210606/0bb5-kracxeq8533988.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: U.S. Department of Labor, CNBC)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%, which was better than the 5.9% expected. Another measure of unemployment, which includes those working part-time for financial reasons, fell slightly to 10.2%.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the U.S. labor force participation rate also fell from 61.8% to 61.6% in May, and the index has remained in a narrow range of 61.4%-61.7% since June 2020. The labor force participation rate in May was 1.7 percentage points lower than in February 2020.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 14 cents (0.5%) to $25.60 in May. It was the latest rise following a 0.7pc rise in salaries in April.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In this regard, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that the non-farm payrolls report is positive, but it is still not enough to influence policy.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"I think there continues to be progress on the labor side, which is very good news. But I would like to see further progress,\" Mester said in an interview with CNBC.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, the US Dollar Index fell under pressure, falling over 50 points to a low of 90.02 in the short term.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said that the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report does not mean that the U.S. dollar will be under continued pressure, because the market will now pay attention to the U.S. May inflation data scheduled to be released next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">After the employment data was released, spot gold quickly rose by nearly $28 in the short term, reaching a daily high of $1,896.13, which was more than $40 higher than the daily low.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,395\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/170/w575h395/20210606/cb8d-kracxeq8534189.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"After the non-farm payroll numbers were slightly below expectations, we saw a modest rally in stocks…A lot of market watchers were looking for a bigger number, and when that didn't come, gold market bulls seemed relieved,\" said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The rally we're seeing today keeps the uptrend active on the gold market's daily chart, which is encouraging for the bulls,\" Wyckoff added.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Gold Outlook Next Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FXStreet's forecast survey shows a slightly bearish short-term outlook for analysts, with an average price target of $1,882 by the end of next week. Several experts are predicting a sharp pullback in gold below $1,800, with the average one-month price target now at $1,863.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Retail investors and Wall Street analysts remain bullish on gold prices next week, according to the latest weekly gold survey results released by Kitco News on Friday. However, bearish sentiment has started to rise, with some analysts warning that gold has topped $1,900 and the market appears to be overbought.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">This week, 16 analysts took part in Kitco's gold survey. Of these analysts, 11 (69%) said they were bullish on gold; At the same time, two analysts (13%) said they were bearish on the performance of gold next week; Three other analysts (19%) said they expected gold prices to move sideways. Meanwhile, a total of 10.23 million people participated in the online poll facing ordinary investors. Of these respondents, 552 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week; 301 respondents (29%) expect the price of gold to decline, and another 170 respondents (7%) hold flat expectations.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"661,437\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/298/w661h437/20210606/1f82-kracxeq8534188.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: Kitco)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">While momentum indicators in the gold market look slightly tight, some analysts say gold has potential for further gains. They said the fundamental outlook provides strong support for the current uptrend.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: \"The latest U.S. jobs report shows that fewer new jobs have been added than expected, while rising wages have heightened people's fears about inflation. Increased wages tend to be sticky, and new hiring figures suggest that wages may need to increase more to attract people back to work. This is bad for the dollar and good for gold.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Other analysts said the gold price crossed $1,900 in May, indicating strong market momentum. Last month, the gold market posted its biggest monthly gain since July last year.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"At the close of May, gold topped the key psychological level of $1,900/oz and remained on an upward trend despite a retreat on June 3,\" said John Feneck, founder of Feneck Consultants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Despite Thursday's sell-off, the gold market has been relatively stable in a strong uptrend and has managed to hold key support levels, said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">However, he added that he has a neutral view on gold as he expects the Fed will have to act on rising inflationary pressures. Gold may struggle to hold on to gains above $1,900, he said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The Fed can't control inflation. It's going to last longer than they expected. There is room for gold to go higher, but at some point, because of inflation, the Fed will at least reduce its bond purchases. It's going to turn the lights out of the gold party.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said the price of gold had rebounded strongly following the release of disappointing employment data in May.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"However, I'm more inclined to sell on further rallies,\" he said. \"The MACD indicator and the slow stochastic indicator are rolling, and I suspect what we're seeing so far is just the first wave of a possible three-wave pullback.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important data and events next week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">There will be no higher-level macroeconomic data release next Monday, and gold will likely continue to react to volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the technical range. Next Tuesday, the Eurozone first-quarter GDP data and Germany's ZEW survey data will appear in the European Economic Report. Although these data are unlikely to have a direct impact on gold valuations, large movements in EUR/USD could affect USD demand.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will meet next week, and the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged after reducing its asset purchases in April. With them likely to scale back their asset purchases again in the third quarter, their outlook may not be as dovish as other central banks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Thursday, U.S. jobless claims are likely to be overlooked by market participants, who will be eyeing the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In April, CPI rose to 4.2% from 2.6% in March, and gold fell more than 1% on the day of the data, again demonstrating gold's sensitivity to inflation data and suggesting that CPI surprises could weigh on gold and vice versa.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist of the group, said: \"We expect the consumer price index to rise by 4.8% in May compared with the same period last year, and the core price (excluding food and energy prices) to rise from 3% to 3.3%. For the former, this will be the highest inflation level since 2008 (when oil prices soared to $146/barrel), while for the core inflation rate, it will be the highest level since 1993!\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The general consensus is that the more disappointing macroeconomic data is, the better gold is,\" said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities. \"But in terms of CPI, it's good for gold if inflation is stronger.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision and issue a monetary policy statement. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said strong policy support would continue to provide a bridge to weather the pandemic and drive economic recovery. Market participants will be looking for clues about possible changes to the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Programme (PEPP). The ECB's hawkish stance is likely to hurt the dollar, while its dovish stance is unlikely to provide a strong boost to the dollar, as it won't be a big surprise to market participants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">By the end of next week, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer confidence index for June.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important economic data and events next week:</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Monday (June 7)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's May Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's foreign exchange reserves in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German manufacturing orders in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Holiday Preview: New Zealand Queen's Birthday Holiday Closed</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Tuesday (June 8)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's first quarter GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone Q1 GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Wednesday (June 9)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US Last Week API<span>crude oil</span><span></span>Change in inventory</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's ex-factory price index of industrial products in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China Consumer Goods Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Germany Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada Overnight Target Rate</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes last week</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: EIA Announces Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: Bank of Canada Unveils Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Thursday (June 10)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan Domestic Corporate Commodity Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">EurozoneEuropean Central BankRefinancing Rates</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US May Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: OPEC Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Friday (June 11)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK industrial output in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK April trade balance of goods</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: 46th G7 Summit to June 13</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">IEA Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Golden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGolden Weekly Review: Too Exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 14:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Original title: Golden Weekly Review: Too exciting! \"Super Week\" gold embarks on a \"thrilling journey\" next week this event is afraid to set off a huge wave in the market again</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FX168 Financial News (North America) News In the past week, affected by economic data including non-farm payrolls report and news about the trend of the Federal Reserve, the financial market fluctuated drastically, and spot gold also ups and downs. Gold started the week with light trading in consolidation due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States. On Tuesday,<span>Gold price</span><span></span>climbed to $1,916, its highest level since early January, but ended lower. While buyers continued to hold on to $1,900 on Wednesday, the dollar's resumption of rally led to gold recording its biggest one-day percentage drop in three months on Thursday. During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 4th), the price of gold continued to slide, reaching the lowest level of $1,856 in more than two weeks. Disappointing labor market data in the US triggered a pre-weekend rally, though, with gold closing around $1,890, snapping a four-week rally.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Friday, spot gold closed at $1,891.03/oz, up sharply by $20.67 or 1.11%. It once hit the lowest level of $1,855.06/oz since May 19th, but then rose strongly and refreshed to a daily high of $1,896.13/oz. For the week, spot gold is down $12.62 or 0.66%.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"572,396\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/168/w572h396/20210606/c208-kracxeq7415210.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold daily trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">COMEX August gold futures closed down 1.9% at $1,873.30/oz, a new closing low in the last two weeks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Looking forward to next week, the most noteworthy thing is the U.S. CPI data next Thursday. The last CPI data was less than expected, which once caused gold to plummet, so the market will pay close attention to this data next week. The United States will also announce the number of initial jobless claims next Thursday. In addition, the market will also be closely watching the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision scheduled to be announced next Wednesday and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Highlights of the Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Economic Data Frequently Get Good News US Dollar and Gold Diving Hand in Hand</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Tuesday (June 1st), data released by the United States showed that the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The final manufacturing PMI was 62.1. Some commentators pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing sector performed well in the second quarter, with the PMI hitting a new high for the second consecutive month in May. New order inflows are climbing at the highest pace in 14-year survey history, driven by recovering domestic demand and record export sales.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Another data released later showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 in May, with both the expected and previous values at 60.7. According to some institutions, manufacturing activity in the United States picked up in May, and pent-up demand due to the reopening of the economy boosted orders, but there is still a lot of unfinished work due to shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"This data indicates that the overall economy has expanded for 12 consecutive months after the contraction in April 2020,\" the report said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The dollar weakened and approached a five-month low after data showed shortages of raw materials and labor led to more unfinished work despite a pick-up in U.S. manufacturing activity last month.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">the US Dollar Index fell 25 points in the short term, refreshing its daily low to 89.66, and once rose to 90.45 last Friday, when the US inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve recorded its biggest annual increase since 1992.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As the dollar fell, the price of gold fell sharply from its nearly five-month high earlier, as strong U.S. manufacturing data and higher U.S. bond yields weakened its appeal.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In the U.S. market, spot gold fell sharply below the 1900 mark in the short term, and reached a daily low of $1,892.26/oz, down $24 from the daily high.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/176/w575h401/20210606/dff3-kracxeq8533819.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"Gold has seen a slight pullback as U.S. stocks continue to rise and U.S. Treasury Bond yields start to move higher,\" said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">He added that investors may think that the Fed's policy of tapering bond purchases will be faster than expected.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">US economic data, the Federal Reserve continued to send heavy news, the US dollar \"one pillar holds the sky\" and the gold \"cliff falls\"</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">On Thursday (June 3rd), the latest series of economic data released by the United States showed strong performance. Private sector employment grew at its fastest pace in nearly a year in May, with businesses hiring nearly 1 million people, according to a report released Thursday by payroll processing firm ADP.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Hiring totaled 978,000 for the month, up sharply from 654,000 in April and the biggest increase since June 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 680,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adam Button, head of forex strategy at Forexlive.com, said: \"Despite the downward revision of April data, this is a very strong report. The non-farm payroll data is volatile, but the most important thing at present is the trend, and it is clearly accelerating improvement.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 385,000 in the week ending May 29th, which continued to reach a new low since the week of March 14th last year. It also marks the first time since the early days of the pandemic that jobless claims have fallen below 400,000.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The two subsequent data released also performed brilliantly: the final PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 70.4 in May, which continued to hit a new high since records began; The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 64 in May, a record high.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In addition, there is also a message from the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed announced it will begin selling ETFs in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The New York Fed said it will begin the gradual sale of corporate bonds in the secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) facility on June 7, starting with the sale of ETFs. The sale of corporate bonds will be gradual. And will take into account the day-to-day liquidity and trading conditions of exchange-traded funds and corporate bonds to minimize any adverse effects on the functioning of the market. Additionally, it is planned to start selling SMCCF's corporate bond holdings this summer, with more details to be provided later before the sale begins.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The strong data made the market more worried that the Federal Reserve would start tapering its bond purchases earlier, and the dollar strengthened as a result. The the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose to 90.55.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">With the rise of the US dollar, spot gold fell below the four major barriers of 1900, 1890, 1880 and 1870 US dollars/ounce one after another, falling below 1,870 US dollars for the first time since May 21st, falling more than 40 US dollars from the daily high, with an intraday drop of 2%, the largest intraday drop since February; spot goods<span>Silver</span><span></span>It fell 3.4%, the biggest intraday decline since March.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"573,401\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/174/w573h401/20210606/9e73-kracxeq8533987.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading, said: \"The ADP data is much stronger than expected, suggesting that there will be a similar rebound in employment data tomorrow, which pushes the US dollar significantly higher and triggers a long liquidation of gold below $1,890. The support level of $1,850-60 is significant, and gold must maintain these levels.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Non-farm accident missed expectations, US dollar \"flying down\", 2 minutes turnover exceeded $1.3 billion, gold soared $28</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday (June 4th), the number of new jobs in May was disappointing again, with an increase of 559,000, lower than expected. Employment is expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"740,433\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/373/w740h433/20210606/0bb5-kracxeq8533988.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: U.S. Department of Labor, CNBC)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%, which was better than the 5.9% expected. Another measure of unemployment, which includes those working part-time for financial reasons, fell slightly to 10.2%.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the U.S. labor force participation rate also fell from 61.8% to 61.6% in May, and the index has remained in a narrow range of 61.4%-61.7% since June 2020. The labor force participation rate in May was 1.7 percentage points lower than in February 2020.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 14 cents (0.5%) to $25.60 in May. It was the latest rise following a 0.7pc rise in salaries in April.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">In this regard, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that the non-farm payrolls report is positive, but it is still not enough to influence policy.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"I think there continues to be progress on the labor side, which is very good news. But I would like to see further progress,\" Mester said in an interview with CNBC.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">As non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, the US Dollar Index fell under pressure, falling over 50 points to a low of 90.02 in the short term.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said that the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report does not mean that the U.S. dollar will be under continued pressure, because the market will now pay attention to the U.S. May inflation data scheduled to be released next Thursday.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">After the employment data was released, spot gold quickly rose by nearly $28 in the short term, reaching a daily high of $1,896.13, which was more than $40 higher than the daily low.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"575,395\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/170/w575h395/20210606/cb8d-kracxeq8534189.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"After the non-farm payroll numbers were slightly below expectations, we saw a modest rally in stocks…A lot of market watchers were looking for a bigger number, and when that didn't come, gold market bulls seemed relieved,\" said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The rally we're seeing today keeps the uptrend active on the gold market's daily chart, which is encouraging for the bulls,\" Wyckoff added.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Gold Outlook Next Week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">FXStreet's forecast survey shows a slightly bearish short-term outlook for analysts, with an average price target of $1,882 by the end of next week. Several experts are predicting a sharp pullback in gold below $1,800, with the average one-month price target now at $1,863.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Retail investors and Wall Street analysts remain bullish on gold prices next week, according to the latest weekly gold survey results released by Kitco News on Friday. However, bearish sentiment has started to rise, with some analysts warning that gold has topped $1,900 and the market appears to be overbought.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">This week, 16 analysts took part in Kitco's gold survey. Of these analysts, 11 (69%) said they were bullish on gold; At the same time, two analysts (13%) said they were bearish on the performance of gold next week; Three other analysts (19%) said they expected gold prices to move sideways. Meanwhile, a total of 10.23 million people participated in the online poll facing ordinary investors. Of these respondents, 552 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week; 301 respondents (29%) expect the price of gold to decline, and another 170 respondents (7%) hold flat expectations.</p><p><div><img img-size=\"661,437\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202166/298/w661h437/20210606/1f82-kracxeq8534188.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">(Source: Kitco)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">While momentum indicators in the gold market look slightly tight, some analysts say gold has potential for further gains. They said the fundamental outlook provides strong support for the current uptrend.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: \"The latest U.S. jobs report shows that fewer new jobs have been added than expected, while rising wages have heightened people's fears about inflation. Increased wages tend to be sticky, and new hiring figures suggest that wages may need to increase more to attract people back to work. This is bad for the dollar and good for gold.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Other analysts said the gold price crossed $1,900 in May, indicating strong market momentum. Last month, the gold market posted its biggest monthly gain since July last year.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"At the close of May, gold topped the key psychological level of $1,900/oz and remained on an upward trend despite a retreat on June 3,\" said John Feneck, founder of Feneck Consultants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Despite Thursday's sell-off, the gold market has been relatively stable in a strong uptrend and has managed to hold key support levels, said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">However, he added that he has a neutral view on gold as he expects the Fed will have to act on rising inflationary pressures. Gold may struggle to hold on to gains above $1,900, he said.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The Fed can't control inflation. It's going to last longer than they expected. There is room for gold to go higher, but at some point, because of inflation, the Fed will at least reduce its bond purchases. It's going to turn the lights out of the gold party.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said the price of gold had rebounded strongly following the release of disappointing employment data in May.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"However, I'm more inclined to sell on further rallies,\" he said. \"The MACD indicator and the slow stochastic indicator are rolling, and I suspect what we're seeing so far is just the first wave of a possible three-wave pullback.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important data and events next week</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">There will be no higher-level macroeconomic data release next Monday, and gold will likely continue to react to volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the technical range. Next Tuesday, the Eurozone first-quarter GDP data and Germany's ZEW survey data will appear in the European Economic Report. Although these data are unlikely to have a direct impact on gold valuations, large movements in EUR/USD could affect USD demand.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will meet next week, and the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged after reducing its asset purchases in April. With them likely to scale back their asset purchases again in the third quarter, their outlook may not be as dovish as other central banks.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Next Thursday, U.S. jobless claims are likely to be overlooked by market participants, who will be eyeing the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In April, CPI rose to 4.2% from 2.6% in March, and gold fell more than 1% on the day of the data, again demonstrating gold's sensitivity to inflation data and suggesting that CPI surprises could weigh on gold and vice versa.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist of the group, said: \"We expect the consumer price index to rise by 4.8% in May compared with the same period last year, and the core price (excluding food and energy prices) to rise from 3% to 3.3%. For the former, this will be the highest inflation level since 2008 (when oil prices soared to $146/barrel), while for the core inflation rate, it will be the highest level since 1993!\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">\"The general consensus is that the more disappointing macroeconomic data is, the better gold is,\" said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities. \"But in terms of CPI, it's good for gold if inflation is stronger.\"</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meanwhile, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision and issue a monetary policy statement. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said strong policy support would continue to provide a bridge to weather the pandemic and drive economic recovery. Market participants will be looking for clues about possible changes to the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Programme (PEPP). The ECB's hawkish stance is likely to hurt the dollar, while its dovish stance is unlikely to provide a strong boost to the dollar, as it won't be a big surprise to market participants.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">By the end of next week, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer confidence index for June.</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Important economic data and events next week:</font></p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Monday (June 7)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's May Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's foreign exchange reserves in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German manufacturing orders in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Holiday Preview: New Zealand Queen's Birthday Holiday Closed</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Tuesday (June 8)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan's first quarter GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Eurozone Q1 GDP</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">German June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. April Trade Balance</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Wednesday (June 9)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US Last Week API<span>crude oil</span><span></span>Change in inventory</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China's ex-factory price index of industrial products in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">China Consumer Goods Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Germany Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Canada Overnight Target Rate</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes last week</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: EIA Announces Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: Bank of Canada Unveils Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Thursday (June 10)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Japan Domestic Corporate Commodity Price Index in May</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">EurozoneEuropean Central BankRefinancing Rates</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">US May Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: OPEC Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Central Bank News: ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Friday (June 11)</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK industrial output in April</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">UK April trade balance of goods</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Financial Events: 46th G7 Summit to June 13</p><p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">IEA Announces Monthly Crude Oil Market Report</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi8024832.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi8024832.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2141285221","content_text":"原标题：黄金周评：太刺激！“超级周”黄金踏上“惊险之旅” 下周这一事件恐再掀起市场巨澜FX168财经报社(北美)讯 过去一周，受包括非农就业报告等经济数据以及有关美联储动向消息的影响，金融市场波动剧烈，现货黄金也随之跌宕起伏。本周伊始，由于美国阵亡将士纪念日假期的影响，黄金交投清淡处于盘整状态。周二，金价攀升至1月初以来最高水平1916美元，但最终收跌。尽管周三买家继续守住1900美元，但美元重拾升势导致黄金在周四录得3个月来最大单日百分比跌幅。在周五(6月4日)的亚洲交易时段，金价继续下滑，达到了两周多以来的最低水平1856美元。不过，美国令人失望的劳动力市场数据引发了周末前的反弹，金价收于1890美元左右，结束了连续四周的涨势。周五，现货黄金收报1891.03美元/盎司，大幅上涨20.67美元或1.11%，盘中一度触及5月19日以来最低水平1855.06美元/盎司，但随后强势上涨并刷新日高至1896.13美元/盎司。本周，现货黄金下跌12.62美元或0.66%。（现货黄金日线走势图，来源：FX168）COMEX 8月黄金期货收跌1.9%，报1873.30美元/盎司，创最近两周收盘新低。展望下周，最值得关注的是下周四的美国CPI数据，上次CPI数据不及预期一度导致黄金大跌，因此市场下周将密切关注这一数据。美国还将于下周四公布初请失业金人数。此外，市场也将密切关注加拿大央行定于下周三宣布的利率决议以及欧洲央行下周四的利率决定。一周要闻盘点经济数据频传捷报 美元和黄金携手跳水周二(6月1日)，美公布的数据显示，美国5月Markit制造业PMI终值为62.1。有评论指出，美国制造业第二季度表现良好，5月份PMI连续第二个月创下新高。受国内需求复苏和出口销售创纪录的推动，新订单流入正以14年调查历史上最高的速度攀升。随后公布的另一项数据显示，美国5月ISM制造业PMI升至61.2，预期和前值都为60.7。有机构称，美国5月制造业活动回升，因经济重新开放而被压抑的需求提振了订单，但原材料和劳动力短缺导致未完成的工作还有很多。报告称:“这一数据表明，在2020年4月出现收缩后，整体经济连续12个月出现扩张。”在数据显示，尽管美国制造业活动上月有所回升，但原材料和劳动力短缺导致未完成工作增多之后，美元走软，逼近五个月低点。美元指数短线下跌25点，刷新日低至89.66，上周五一度升至90.45，当日美联储密切关注的美国通胀指标录得1992年以来最大年度升幅。在美元下跌之际，金价自稍早触及的近五个月高位大幅下跌，因强劲的美国制造业数据和美债收益率走高削弱了其吸引力。美市盘中，现货黄金短线急跌下破1900关口，并刷新日低至1892.26美元/盎司，较日高跌去24美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）“随着美国股市继续上涨，美国国债收益率开始走高，金价出现了小幅回落，”蓝线期货首席市场策略师Phillip Streible表示。他补充称，投资者可能认为美联储缩减购债规模政策的速度将快于预期。美经济数据、美联储连传重磅消息 美元“一柱擎天”黄金“断崖下跌”周四(6月3日)，美国最新公布的一连串经济数据表现强劲。据薪资处理公司ADP周四发布的报告，5月份私营部门就业增长速度达到近一年来的最快速度，企业雇佣了近100万名员工。当月招聘总数达到97.8万人，较4月份的65.4万人大幅上升，创下自2020年6月以来的最大增幅。接受道琼斯调查的经济学家原本预期将增加68万。Forexlive.com外汇策略主管Adam Button表示:“尽管4月份的数据向下修正，但这是一份非常强劲的报告。非农就业数据不稳定，但目前最重要的是趋势，而且明显在加速改善。”与此同时，美国至5月29日当周初请失业金人数录得38.5万人，续刷去年3月14日当周以来新低。它还标志着自疫情爆发初期以来，初请失业金人数首次降至40万人以下。随后公布的两项数据也表现靓丽：美国5月Markit服务业PMI终值录得70.4，续创有记录以来新高；美国5月ISM非制造业PMI录得64，创有记录以来新高。此外，美联储方面也传来了一则消息。纽约联储宣布将于6月7日开始出售二级市场企业信贷便利(SMCCF)工具中的ETF。纽约联储称，将于6月7日开始逐步出售二级市场企业信贷便利（SMCCF）工具中的企业债，将从出售ETF开始。企业债的出售将是循序渐进的。并将考虑到交易所交易基金和公司债券的日常流动性和交易条件，以最大限度地减少对市场运作的任何不利影响。此外，计划今年夏天开始出售SMCCF所持公司债券，更多细节将在发售开始前晚些时候提供。强劲数据令市场更加担心美联储会更早开始缩减购债规模，美元因此走强。衡量美元兑一篮子六种货币汇率的美元指数升至90.55。随着美元上扬，现货黄金接连跌破1900、1890、1880、1870美元/盎司等四大关口，为5月21日以来首次跌破1870美元，较日高大跌逾40美元，日内跌幅高达2%，创下2月以来的盘中最大跌幅；现货白银跌3.4%，为3月以来盘中最大跌幅。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）蒙特利尔银行金属衍生品交易主管Tai Wong表示:“ADP数据远强于预期，暗示明日就业数据也将出现类似的反弹，这推动美元明显走高，并引发黄金在1890美元下方的多头清算。1850-60美元的支撑位意义重大，黄金必须维持住这些水平。”非农意外不及预期 美元“飞流直下”、2分钟成交逾13亿美元黄金狂飙28美元美国劳工部周五(6月4日)公布的数据显示，5月新增就业人数再次令人失望，增长55.9万人，低于预期。据道琼斯调查的经济学家称，预计就业人数将增加67.1万人。（来源：美国劳工部、CNBC）失业率从6.1%下降到5.8%，比预期的5.9%要好。另一项衡量失业率的指标则小幅降至10.2%，该指标包括那些因经济原因而从事兼职工作的人。与此同时，美国劳动力参与率也从61.8%降至5月的61.6%，该指数自2020年6月以来一直保持在61.4%-61.7%的窄幅区间内。5月的劳动力参与率比2020年2月低1.7个百分点。此外，5月份平均时薪增加了14美分(0.5%)至25.60美元。这是继4月份薪资上涨0.7%之后的最新一次上涨。对此，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示，非农就业报告是正面的，但仍不足以影响政策。“我认为劳工方面继续取得进展，这是非常好的消息。但我希望看到进一步的进展，”梅斯特在接受CNBC采访时说。由于非农就业数据不及预期，美元指数承压下跌，短线下滑超50点至90.02低点。法国农业信贷银行策略师Manuel Oliveri称，美国就业报告弱于预期并不意味着美元将面临持续的压力，因为市场目前将关注定于下周四公布的美国5月通胀数据。就业数据公布后，现货黄金短线短线迅速拉升近28美元，刷新日高至1896.13美元，较日低则高出逾40美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）“在非农就业数据略低于预期之后，我们看到股市出现温和反弹……很多市场观察人士都在寻求一个更大的数字，当这一数字没有出现时，黄金市场多头似乎松了一口气，”Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示。“我们今天看到的反弹使黄金市场日线图上的上行趋势保持活跃，这对多头来说是鼓舞人心的，”Wyckoff补充道。下周黄金展望FXStreet的预测调查显示，分析师的短期前景略微看跌，下周结束前的平均目标价为1882美元。几位专家预测，金价将大幅回调至1800美元下方，一个月平均目标价目前为1863美元。Kitco News周五最新公布的黄金周度调查结果显示，散户投资者和华尔街分析师仍看好下周的金价。然而，看跌情绪已开始上升，一些分析师警告称，金价已突破1900美元，市场似乎处于超买状态。本周，16位分析师参加了Kitco的黄金调查。在这些分析师中，有11位(占69%)表示看涨黄金；与此同时，有两位分析师(占13%)表示，看空黄金的下周表现；另外3位分析师(占19%)说，他们预计金价将呈横向走势。与此同时，共有1023万人次参加了面对普通投资者的网上投票。在这些受访者中，有552人(占54%)预计金价下周将上涨；301名受访者(占29%)预计金价将下滑，另有170名受访者(占7%)持看平预期。（来源：Kitco）尽管黄金市场的动能指标看起来有些紧张，但一些分析师表示，黄金有进一步上涨的潜力。他们表示，基本面前景为当前的上行趋势提供了强有力的支撑。Adrian Day Asset Management总裁Adrian Day表示:“最新的美国就业报告显示，新增就业岗位少于预期，而工资水平上升，加剧了人们对通胀的担忧。增加的工资往往具有粘性，新的雇佣数字表明，工资可能需要增加更多才能吸引人们重返工作岗位。这对美元不利，对黄金有利。”其他分析师表示，5月金价突破1900美元，表明市场动能强劲。上个月，黄金市场创下自去年7月份以来的最大月度涨幅。“5月收盘时，金价突破1900美元/盎司的关键心理水准，尽管6月3日有所回落，但仍处于上行趋势，”Feneck Consultants创始人John Feneck表示。Phoenix Futures and Options总裁Kevin Grady表示，尽管周四出现抛售，但黄金市场在强劲上升趋势中相对稳定，并成功守住了关键支撑位。不过，他补充称，他对黄金持中性看法，因为他预计美联储将不得不对通胀压力上升采取行动。他说，金价可能很难守住1900美元以上的涨幅。“美联储无法控制通货膨胀。这将比他们预期的更持久。黄金有走高的空间，但在某个时候，由于通货膨胀，美联储将至少减少债券购买。它会把黄金派对的灯都关掉。”Bannockburn Global Forex董事总经理Marc Chandler表示，在5月份令人失望的就业数据发布后，金价出现了强劲反弹。“不过，我更倾向于在进一步反弹时卖出，”他表示。“MACD指标和缓慢随机指标正在滚动，我怀疑我们目前所看到的，只是可能的三波回调的第一波。”下周重要数据和事件下周一不会有更高层次的宏观经济数据发布，黄金可能会继续在技术范围内对美国国债收益率的波动做出反应。下周二，欧元区第一季度GDP数据和德国ZEW调查数据将出现在欧洲经济报告中。尽管这些数据不太可能对黄金估值产生直接影响，但欧元/美元的大幅波动可能会影响美元需求。下周三，加拿大央行将于下周召开会议，市场普遍预期该央行将在4月减少资产购买后维持政策不变。由于它们可能在第三季度再次缩减资产购买规模，它们的前景可能不如其他央行那么鸽派。下周四，美国初请失业金人数可能会被市场参与者忽略，他们将关注5月消费者价格指数(CPI)数据。4月份，CPI从3月份的2.6%上升至4.2%，黄金在数据发布当天下跌了超过1%，这再次表明了黄金对通胀数据的敏感性，并表明CPI的惊喜可能会给黄金带来压力，反之亦然。荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家James Knightley说:“我们预计5月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上升4.8%，核心价格(不包括食品和能源价格)由3%上升至3.3%。就前者而言，这将是2008年以来的最高通胀水平(当时油价飙升至146美元/桶)，而就核心通胀率而言，这将是1993年以来的最高水平！”“普遍共识是，宏观经济数据越是令人失望，黄金就越好，”道明证券全球策略主管Bart Melek称。“但就CPI而言，如果通胀走强，这对黄金有利。”与此同时，欧洲央行将宣布其利率决定，并发布货币政策声明。本周早些时候，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，强有力的政策支持将继续为渡过大流行并推动经济复苏提供桥梁。市场参与者将寻找有关大流行紧急采购方案(PEPP)可能变化的线索。欧洲央行的鹰派立场可能损及美元，而鸽派立场不太可能对美元提供强劲提振，因为对市场参与者来说，这不会是一个很大的意外。下周末之前，密歇根大学将发布6月份消费者信心指数初值。下周重要经济数据和事件：周一（6月7日）中国5月贸易帐日本5月外汇储备德国4月制造业订单欧元区6月Sentix投资者信心指数假日预告：新西兰女王诞辰日假期休市周二（6月8日）日本第一季度GDP欧元区第一季度GDP德国6月ZEW经济景气指数加拿大4月贸易帐美国4月贸易帐周三（6月9日）美国上周API原油库存变化中国5月工业品出厂价格指数中国5月居民消费品价格指数德国4月季调后贸易帐加拿大隔夜目标利率美国上周EIA原油库存变化财经事件：EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告央行动态：加拿大央行公布利率决议周四（6月10日）日本5月国内企业商品物价指数欧元区欧洲央行再融资利率美国5月未季调消费者物价指数财经事件：欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告央行动态：欧洲央行公布利率决议欧洲央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会周五（6月11日）英国4月工业产出英国4月商品贸易帐美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值财经事件：第46届G7峰会举行，至6月13日IEA公布月度原油市场报告\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"GCmain":1,"GLD":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}