kenp personal page - To The Moon

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2021-06-27

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With the national carbon trading market about to launch, institutions have identified five major investment directions.

2021-07-27

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Tesla's Bitcoin assets are impaired by $23 million and are about to fall below the cost line.

2022-02-10

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2022-03-13

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Are all automakers trying to emulate Tesla, leaving car dealers with "no way out"?

2021-05-15

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How did the masters cope with the stock market decline?

2021-06-26

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2022-02-26

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Goldman Sachs: Nothing can stop the Fed from releasing 25 basis points of rate hike in March.

2021-04-25

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2021-05-06

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-27

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Snowflake's revenue surged beyond expectations, but growth is expected to slow this quarter.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Good good good&nbsp;","listText":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good&nbsp;","text":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948621004,"gmtCreate":1680701951409,"gmtModify":1680701954968,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice event&nbsp;","listText":"Nice event&nbsp;","text":"Nice event","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621004","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022823188,"gmtCreate":1653519705145,"gmtModify":1676535294756,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022823188","repostId":"1189522697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189522697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653488770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189522697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 22:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will US inflation decline? Keep a close eye on these 9 indicators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189522697","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures foreshadow a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is nearing its highest level in 40 years, posing challenges to households, businesses, and government policymakers. Is the abnormal wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, how long will it take for inflation to slow? Most importantly, in the long run, where will inflation stabilize?</p><p>Economists provide several signals to anticipate US inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflationary momentum</b></p><p>The most closely watched inflation data is the year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of price increases in a month compared to the same period last year. Lou Crandall, chief analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the indicator helps measure longer-term inflation trends, it may focus too much on past inflation levels. He and other economists depicted the change in CPI compared to three months ago and the change compared to the same period last year in the chart below. The former better reflects the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI compared to 3 months ago and the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors, such as rising oil or food prices, do not reflect the overall price pressures in the economy. But economists have developed data that can identify overall economic inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, recommends paying attention to the Cleveland Fed's 16% trimmed-mean CPI, an inflation indicator that excludes the most extreme price changes and leaves most of the middle price changes. This data can better explain how inflation is formed.</p><p>CPI year-on-year growth rate vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted CPI year-on-year growth rate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>The commodity frenzy is over.</b></p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, demand for manufactured goods surged, while demand for services plummeted. At the same time, supply chain disruptions related to the pandemic have led to an imbalance between supply and demand, resulting in severe shortages of goods and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to measure whether this is happening is to track changes in the balances of two major categories of expenditures in the Ministry of Commerce's monthly personal consumption expenditure report.</p><p>Comparison of goods consumption and service consumption after inflation adjustment:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>Overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin stated that as consumers shift back to service sector consumption, it will be crucial to focus on wage growth, as the service sector often relies more on labor than on goods production. He said:</p><p>“If you plot trends over a period of time, you’ll find that wages and service sector inflation complement each other.” He suggested paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracking system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group, and other factors. A useful comparison is the number of job hoppers and the number of workers who stay in place.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage growth increases Americans' incomes, pushing up the prices of everything—especially housing costs. Housing prices are key to understanding the direction of inflation, as housing costs account for nearly one-third of the CPI. Aichi Amemiya, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, suggests paying attention<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>To better understand housing cost trends, we use rent indices and rent estimates from Apartment List.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rent indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is key.</b></p><p>Amemiya stated that over the past year, car market prices have accounted for a large proportion of overall inflation. Of the 8.3% CPI growth in April, automobiles and auto parts contributed 1.3 percentage points. Among them, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to drop significantly, used car prices must fall. Amemiya recommends paying attention to Manheim's used car value index, which is often one or two months ahead of the CPI series index.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and auto parts to year-on-year CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>The tourism industry is particularly vulnerable to the pandemic—especially airline tickets, hotels, and car rentals. Amemiya stated that one way to gauge consumer attitudes toward the pandemic is through the number of passengers at airport checkpoints released by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration. The data is updated daily and is close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been a major cause of inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. By observing the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts, one can roughly see what level oil prices might reach in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>The Environmental Information Agency (EIA) updates retail gasoline prices weekly. The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides daily gasoline prices by state and nationwide.</p><p>Regular gasoline in the United States, all gasoline retail prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation Expectations</b>Once people start to notice inflation, it inflates itself. Alex Lin said that this is why so-called inflation expectations are worth paying attention to. The median inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey are a well-hated indicator of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We've already seen some kind of rebound—their levels seem consistent with the 2% inflation rate the Federal Reserve is trying to set, but if they continue to climb, it will trigger more panic.\" Consumer inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will US inflation decline? Keep a close eye on these 9 indicators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will US inflation decline? Keep a close eye on these 9 indicators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 22:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures foreshadow a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is nearing its highest level in 40 years, posing challenges to households, businesses, and government policymakers. Is the abnormal wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, how long will it take for inflation to slow? Most importantly, in the long run, where will inflation stabilize?</p><p>Economists provide several signals to anticipate US inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflationary momentum</b></p><p>The most closely watched inflation data is the year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of price increases in a month compared to the same period last year. Lou Crandall, chief analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the indicator helps measure longer-term inflation trends, it may focus too much on past inflation levels. He and other economists depicted the change in CPI compared to three months ago and the change compared to the same period last year in the chart below. The former better reflects the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI compared to 3 months ago and the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors, such as rising oil or food prices, do not reflect the overall price pressures in the economy. But economists have developed data that can identify overall economic inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, recommends paying attention to the Cleveland Fed's 16% trimmed-mean CPI, an inflation indicator that excludes the most extreme price changes and leaves most of the middle price changes. This data can better explain how inflation is formed.</p><p>CPI year-on-year growth rate vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted CPI year-on-year growth rate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>The commodity frenzy is over.</b></p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, demand for manufactured goods surged, while demand for services plummeted. At the same time, supply chain disruptions related to the pandemic have led to an imbalance between supply and demand, resulting in severe shortages of goods and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to measure whether this is happening is to track changes in the balances of two major categories of expenditures in the Ministry of Commerce's monthly personal consumption expenditure report.</p><p>Comparison of goods consumption and service consumption after inflation adjustment:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>Overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin stated that as consumers shift back to service sector consumption, it will be crucial to focus on wage growth, as the service sector often relies more on labor than on goods production. He said:</p><p>“If you plot trends over a period of time, you’ll find that wages and service sector inflation complement each other.” He suggested paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracking system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group, and other factors. A useful comparison is the number of job hoppers and the number of workers who stay in place.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage growth increases Americans' incomes, pushing up the prices of everything—especially housing costs. Housing prices are key to understanding the direction of inflation, as housing costs account for nearly one-third of the CPI. Aichi Amemiya, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, suggests paying attention<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>To better understand housing cost trends, we use rent indices and rent estimates from Apartment List.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rent indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is key.</b></p><p>Amemiya stated that over the past year, car market prices have accounted for a large proportion of overall inflation. Of the 8.3% CPI growth in April, automobiles and auto parts contributed 1.3 percentage points. Among them, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to drop significantly, used car prices must fall. Amemiya recommends paying attention to Manheim's used car value index, which is often one or two months ahead of the CPI series index.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and auto parts to year-on-year CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>The tourism industry is particularly vulnerable to the pandemic—especially airline tickets, hotels, and car rentals. Amemiya stated that one way to gauge consumer attitudes toward the pandemic is through the number of passengers at airport checkpoints released by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration. The data is updated daily and is close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been a major cause of inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. By observing the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts, one can roughly see what level oil prices might reach in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>The Environmental Information Agency (EIA) updates retail gasoline prices weekly. The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides daily gasoline prices by state and nationwide.</p><p>Regular gasoline in the United States, all gasoline retail prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation Expectations</b>Once people start to notice inflation, it inflates itself. Alex Lin said that this is why so-called inflation expectations are worth paying attention to. The median inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey are a well-hated indicator of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We've already seen some kind of rebound—their levels seem consistent with the 2% inflation rate the Federal Reserve is trying to set, but if they continue to climb, it will trigger more panic.\" Consumer inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189522697","content_text":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？最重要的是，从长期来看，通胀会在哪个位置稳定下来?经济学家给出几个信号用来预期美国通胀：1、短期通胀势头最受关注的通胀数据是消费者价格指数（CPI）的同比增速，该指数衡量了一个月与上年同期相比的物价上涨速度。Wrightson ICAP首席分析师Lou Crandall表示，尽管该指标有助于衡量较长期的通胀趋势，但可能过度关注过去的通胀水平。他和其他经济学家将CPI较3个月前的变化和较去年同期的变化描绘在了下图，前者更能体现出近期的通胀趋势。CPI较3个月前和较去年同期的变化：2、潜在通胀油价或食品价格上涨的这些短期因素，不能反映经济中整体的价格压力。但经济学家们已经研究出能识别整体经济通胀的数据。美国银行Global Research高级美国经济学家Alex Lin建议关注克利夫兰联储16%的截尾平均CPI（16% trimmed-mean CPI），该通胀指标剔除了最极端的价格变动，留下了中间大部分的价格变动，这些数据能更好地解释通胀如何形成的。CPI同比增速vs克利夫兰联储经调整后的CPI同比增速：3、大宗商品狂欢结束疫情的早期，人们对制成品的需求激增，而对服务的需求急剧下降。同时，也因与疫情有关的供应链中断，供需失衡，造成商品严重短缺和价格上涨。当消费者回归到正常的商品、服务消费后，这可能会降低产品价格的压力。衡量这种情况是否发生的一种方法是，跟踪商务部月度个人消费支出报告中两大类支出的余额变化。经通胀调整后，商品消费与服务消费的比较：4、过热的劳动力市场Alex Lin表示，随着消费者重新转向服务业消费，关注工资增长将非常重要，因为服务业往往比商品生产更依赖劳动力。他表示：“如果你绘制一段时间的趋势图，你会发现工资和服务业通胀相辅相成。”他建议密切关注亚特兰大联储的工资跟踪系统，该系统还允许用户按工资水平、人口统计群体和其他因素对数据进行筛选。一个比较有用的比较是跳槽者数量和留在原地的工作者数量。工资年增长中位数的12个月移动平均水平：5、租金成本工资的快速增长会增加了美国人的收入，推高了所有东西的价格——尤其是住房成本。住房价格是了解通胀走向的关键，因为住房成本占CPI的近三分之一。Nomura Securities的美国经济学家Aichi Amemiya建议关注Zillow的租金指数和Apartment List的租金预估数据，来更好地了解住房成本趋势。三种租金指标的同比增速对比：6、汽车市场是关键Amemiya表示，过去一年，汽车市场的价格占整体通胀中很大比例。4月份8.3%的CPI增长中，汽车和零部件贡献了1.3个百分点。其中，二手车是最大的因素。要想通胀大幅下降，二手车价格必须有所下降。Amemiya建议关注Manheim的二手车价值指数，该指数往往比CPI系列指数领先一两个月。汽车和零部件对CPI同比增速的贡献：7、易受疫情影响的部分易受疫情大幅影响的特别是旅游业——尤其是机票、酒店和汽车租赁。 Amemiya表示，衡量消费者对疫情态度的一种方法是通过美国交通安全管理局公布的机场检查站的旅客数量。数据每天更新且接近于实时指标。机场检查站的旅客数量（7日移动平均数）：8、石油期货飙升的能源价格是过去一年通货膨胀的主要原因，而油价在今年创下了历史新高。观察美国原油期货合约的价格，可以大致看出几个月或一年后油价可能会达到什么水平。短期来看，美国能源信息署（EIA）每周会更新汽油零售价格。美国汽车协会（AAA）每日会提供各州和全国范围内的汽油价格。美国普通汽油，所有汽油零售价格：9、通胀预期一旦人们开始注意到通货膨胀，它就会自我膨胀。Alex Lin说道，这就是为什么所谓的通胀预期值得关注的原因。密歇根大学月度消费者调查中的未来5至10年的通胀预期中值是遗恨良好的通胀预期指标。他说道：“我们已经看到了某种反弹——它们的水平似乎与美联储试图设定的2%通胀率相一致，但如果它们继续攀升，就会引发更多的恐慌。”未来5-10年消费者的通胀预期：","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026478178,"gmtCreate":1653433100594,"gmtModify":1676535279115,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026478178","repostId":"1107384662","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107384662","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653404833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107384662?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 23:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"R&D investment accounts for 14%! NetEase is investing in \"hard technology\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107384662","media":"上海证券报","summary":"5月24日，网易集团披露2022年一季报，同日云音乐也发布了独立财报。一边是网易提高研发投入，布局“硬科技”端，另一边是云音乐持续巩固音乐人生态，激发内生动力，财务指标进一步优化。去年以来的互联网行业","content":"<p><div>On May 24, NetEase Group released its Q1 2022 financial report, and on the same day, Cloud Music also released its independent financial report. On the one hand, NetEase is increasing its R&D investment and focusing on \"hard technology\"; on the other hand, Cloud Music is continuously consolidating its musician ecosystem, stimulating endogenous motivation, and further optimizing its financial indicators. The changes in the internet industry since last year have prompted NetEase to begin honing its internal capabilities and building resilience early on. On May 24, NetEase announced its first-quarter 2022 results, with R&D investment accounting for 14%. Financial reports show that in the first quarter of this year, NetEase achieved revenue of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15%. The company achieved a net profit of 4.394 billion yuan in the first quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1eZY9Yp-6BwhQzFbAqeoDQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>R&D investment accounts for 14%! NetEase is investing in \"hard technology\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nR&D investment accounts for 14%! NetEase is investing in \"hard technology\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On May 24, NetEase Group released its Q1 2022 financial report, and on the same day, Cloud Music also released its independent financial report. On the one hand, NetEase is increasing its R&D investment and focusing on \"hard technology\"; on the other hand, Cloud Music is continuously consolidating its musician ecosystem, stimulating endogenous motivation, and further optimizing its financial indicators. The changes in the internet industry since last year have prompted NetEase to begin honing its internal capabilities and building resilience early on. On May 24, NetEase announced its first-quarter 2022 results, with R&D investment accounting for 14%. Financial reports show that in the first quarter of this year, NetEase achieved revenue of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15%. The company achieved a net profit of 4.394 billion yuan in the first quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1eZY9Yp-6BwhQzFbAqeoDQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1eZY9Yp-6BwhQzFbAqeoDQ\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8e0305a87df45caf56132a277d0132","relate_stocks":{"09999":"网易","NTES":"网易"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1eZY9Yp-6BwhQzFbAqeoDQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107384662","content_text":"5月24日，网易集团披露2022年一季报，同日云音乐也发布了独立财报。一边是网易提高研发投入，布局“硬科技”端，另一边是云音乐持续巩固音乐人生态，激发内生动力，财务指标进一步优化。去年以来的互联网行业变化，让网易早早开始修炼内功，锻造韧性。研发投入占比14%5月24日，网易公布2022年第一季度业绩。财报显示，今年一季度，网易实现营收236亿元，同比增长约15%。一季度实现净利润43.94亿元，上年同期为44.39亿元。具体来看，一季度，在线游戏服务净收入173亿元，依然是营收的主力。不过，网易显然不满足于做一家纯粹的游戏公司，转型成为一家科技企业，或许才是丁磊对于网易的期许。一季度，网易研发投入为34亿元。研发占收入比达14%，保持行业领先水平。而记者注意到，2020年起，网易研发投入连续两年突破百亿大关，研发人员占比约50%，并被评为国内研发强度前三的企业。这么多的资金都投向了那些领域呢？网易的答案是自研引擎。作为下一时代互联网的基础建设，相关引擎的开发一直是一项被国外企业垄断的核心技术。据了解，截至2021年7月，网易自研的引擎Messiah已支持9款产品研发。同时，Messiah还先后拿下了20多项独创专利技术，已成为有能力支撑世界级品质、全平台发行的大型游戏开发的成熟自研引擎。网易互娱首席游戏软件设计专家、Messiah引擎领衔者赵钰琨对记者表示，Messiah是网易在技术突破上第一次野心勃勃的巨大尝试，也是国内软件研发历史上一个巨大复杂软件成功研发的里程碑。“这些技术是核心，是命脉，不能寄望于别人、不能买、不能借、不能依托于开源或者授权，更不能被别人卡脖子，要牢牢掌握在我们自己的手里。”除了引擎之外，网易已在VR、AR、人工智能、云游戏、区块链等数字经济重点领域，拥有全球领先的技术储备。尤其在人工智能领域，网易多次获得了全球顶级学术会议的认可。此外，网易有道在人工智能领域也取得了突破性的成果。其搭载自主研发YNMT（神经网络翻译）技术和OCR(光学字符识别 )等技术的有道词典笔，平均识别准确率达98.3%，识别速度提升了40%，能有效提高用户的外语学习效率。云音乐内生动力强化相较于硬科技上的不断投入，对于社区的培养则更加考验网易的智慧。自独立上市以来，云音乐作为网易新兴业务中发展强劲的板块而备受关注。财报显示，网易云音乐2022年第一季度净收入为21亿元，同比增长38.6%；得益于会员订阅、社交娱乐的增长以及成本管控的整体改善，2022年第一季度录得毛利润2.52亿元，毛利率大幅提升至12%。在线音乐服务月付费用户数达3674万，同比增长超51%。今年以来疫情反复，线上音乐会成为了越来越多年轻人的选择，而这也为云音乐提供了发展的契机。社交娱乐服务增长的迅速，进一步释放了平台商业化潜力，让云音乐内部寻找到了除付费音乐外，新的增长点。2022年第一季度，社交娱乐服务及其他收入为11.9亿元，同比增长61.6%。音频直播，成为越来越被年轻人接受的新线上社交方式。此外，在音乐社区基本盘上，云音乐平台内生发展动力强劲，注册独立音乐人超45万，同比增长约70%。富有个性的创作者，让用户黏性保持在较高水准。“有这么多的音乐人群体，我们也在思考如何将这块业务做深做透。”一位云音乐内部人士告诉记者，自去年以来，云音乐就开启了一条“深化音乐人服务”的探索之路。今年1月，网易云音乐上线一站式Beat交易平台BeatSoul。而就在近日，网易云音乐发起的业内首届大型原创Beat制作赛事“节奏玩家”落下帷幕，该赛事共吸引近3000位音乐制作人参赛，收到投稿作品达5000余份，因专业度和权威性引发全音乐行业关注。“我们希望这个社区有能给音乐人带来更多创作的灵感，更多收益的途径。”前述人士表示，未来，云音乐将着力为幕后创作人带来持续高效的曝光，促进更多的音乐合作，获得更多的音乐收益，推动原创音乐的全面繁荣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NTES":0.9,"09999":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026081597,"gmtCreate":1653297627519,"gmtModify":1676535255668,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026081597","repostId":"1162580552","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162580552","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1653295525,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162580552?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 16:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The IMF chief warned that the global economy could face its \"biggest test since World War II.\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162580552","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"格奥尔基耶娃称乌克兰冲突“破坏了人们的生活，拖累了经济增长，推高了通货膨胀”，并敦促各国不要“屈服于地缘经济分裂的力量，这将使我们的世界更贫穷、更危险”。但她也承认：“并没有解决最具破坏性分裂的灵丹妙","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Georgieva called the conflict in Ukraine \"disrupting people's lives, dragging down economic growth, and driving up inflation,\" and urged countries not to \"succumb to the forces of geoeconomic division, which will make our world poorer and more dangerous.\" But she also acknowledged: \"There is no panacea to solve the most destructive divisions.\" The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of the global economic disintegration caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, saying that undermining decades of global integration would make the world poorer and more dangerous.</p><p>On the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, along with IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and Head of Strategy, Policy and Review Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, stated in a blog post that the global economy is facing \"its greatest test since World War II.\"</p><p>The cost of further disintegration of ties between countries will be enormous. People at all income levels will suffer—from high-income professionals and middle-income factory workers engaged in exports to low-income workers who depend on imported food for survival. More people will embark on dangerous journeys to seek opportunities elsewhere. They said,<b>After more than 30 countries restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities, countries should lower trade barriers to alleviate shortages and lower prices.</b>Countries should also diversify imports to ensure supply chain security and reduce production losses due to supply disruptions.</p><p>They also wrote that the G20 should improve its common framework for dealing with debt restructuring to help countries in debt distress address their vulnerabilities.</p><p>In addition, cross-border payment systems need to be modernized, and countries should work together to create a public digital platform for processing remittances in order to reduce costs and improve security. Countries must also cooperate to address climate change.</p><p><b>Georgieva called the conflict in Ukraine \"disrupting people's lives, dragging down economic growth, and driving up inflation,\" and urged countries not to \"succumb to the forces of geoeconomic division, which will make our world poorer and more dangerous.\" But she also acknowledged: \"There is no panacea to solve the most destructive divisions.\"</b></p><p>Recently, a growing number of economists have expressed concern that the world is falling into an economic recession, Europe is suffering from a cost-of-living crisis, the United States is moving from prosperity to recession, and emerging markets are facing food shortages.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics released the results of a simulation test last week, simulating the long-term trend of accelerated reversal of globalization. The results show that the planet will become poorer, productivity will decline significantly, and trade will return to levels seen before China joined the World Trade Organization. In addition, inflation may be higher and more volatile.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The IMF chief warned that the global economy could face its \"biggest test since World War II.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe IMF chief warned that the global economy could face its \"biggest test since World War II.\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-23 16:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Georgieva called the conflict in Ukraine \"disrupting people's lives, dragging down economic growth, and driving up inflation,\" and urged countries not to \"succumb to the forces of geoeconomic division, which will make our world poorer and more dangerous.\" But she also acknowledged: \"There is no panacea to solve the most destructive divisions.\" The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of the global economic disintegration caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, saying that undermining decades of global integration would make the world poorer and more dangerous.</p><p>On the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, along with IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and Head of Strategy, Policy and Review Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, stated in a blog post that the global economy is facing \"its greatest test since World War II.\"</p><p>The cost of further disintegration of ties between countries will be enormous. People at all income levels will suffer—from high-income professionals and middle-income factory workers engaged in exports to low-income workers who depend on imported food for survival. More people will embark on dangerous journeys to seek opportunities elsewhere. They said,<b>After more than 30 countries restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities, countries should lower trade barriers to alleviate shortages and lower prices.</b>Countries should also diversify imports to ensure supply chain security and reduce production losses due to supply disruptions.</p><p>They also wrote that the G20 should improve its common framework for dealing with debt restructuring to help countries in debt distress address their vulnerabilities.</p><p>In addition, cross-border payment systems need to be modernized, and countries should work together to create a public digital platform for processing remittances in order to reduce costs and improve security. Countries must also cooperate to address climate change.</p><p><b>Georgieva called the conflict in Ukraine \"disrupting people's lives, dragging down economic growth, and driving up inflation,\" and urged countries not to \"succumb to the forces of geoeconomic division, which will make our world poorer and more dangerous.\" But she also acknowledged: \"There is no panacea to solve the most destructive divisions.\"</b></p><p>Recently, a growing number of economists have expressed concern that the world is falling into an economic recession, Europe is suffering from a cost-of-living crisis, the United States is moving from prosperity to recession, and emerging markets are facing food shortages.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics released the results of a simulation test last week, simulating the long-term trend of accelerated reversal of globalization. The results show that the planet will become poorer, productivity will decline significantly, and trade will return to levels seen before China joined the World Trade Organization. In addition, inflation may be higher and more volatile.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162580552","content_text":"格奥尔基耶娃称乌克兰冲突“破坏了人们的生活，拖累了经济增长，推高了通货膨胀”，并敦促各国不要“屈服于地缘经济分裂的力量，这将使我们的世界更贫穷、更危险”。但她也承认：“并没有解决最具破坏性分裂的灵丹妙药。”国际货币基金组织IMF对俄乌冲突导致的全球经济分崩离析发出警告，称破坏数十年的全球一体化将使世界更贫穷、更危险。在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛召开前夕，IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）与IMF第一副总裁 Gita Gopinath 以及战略、政策和审查部门负责人 Ceyla Pazarbasioglu 在一篇博客文章中表示，全球经济正面临“自二战以来的最大考验”：各国之间的联系进一步瓦解的代价将是巨大的。各个收入水平的人都将受到伤害——从高收入专业人士和从事出口的中等收入工厂工人，到依赖进口食品生存的低收入工人。更多的人将踏上危险的旅程，到其他地方寻找机会。他们表示，在30多个国家限制食品、能源和其他关键商品的贸易后，各国应降低贸易壁垒，以缓解短缺并降低价格。各国还应使进口多样化，以确保供应链的安全，并减少因供应中断造成的产量损失。他们还写道，G20还应改善其处理债务重组的共同框架，以帮助陷入债务困境的国家，应对其脆弱性。另外，还要实现跨境支付系统的现代化，各国应共同努力创建一个处理汇款的公共数字平台，以降低成本并提高安全性。各国还必须合作应对气候变化。格奥尔基耶娃称乌克兰冲突“破坏了人们的生活，拖累了经济增长，推高了通货膨胀”，并敦促各国不要“屈服于地缘经济分裂的力量，这将使我们的世界更贫穷、更危险”。但她也承认：“并没有解决最具破坏性分裂的灵丹妙药。”近日来，越来越多的经济学家担心，全球正陷入经济衰退，欧洲遭受生活成本危机，美国从繁荣走向萧条，新兴市场面临粮食短缺。彭博经济上周发布了一项模拟测试的结果，模拟全球化加速逆转的长期趋势。结果表明，地球将变得更加贫穷，生产力也将大幅下降，贸易将回到中国加入世界贸易组织之前的水平。另外，通胀可能会更高、更不稳定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028601178,"gmtCreate":1653204589394,"gmtModify":1676535240167,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028601178","repostId":"615784506","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615784506,"gmtCreate":1653196473505,"gmtModify":1676533133826,"author":{"id":"3561588058603386","authorId":"3561588058603386","name":"孟析笔谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c19d993767ff7603cd9012a54472164","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561588058603386","authorIdStr":"3561588058603386"},"themes":[],"title":"心理專家線上“開方送藥”！海信冰箱公益課堂聽得家長心裏暖暖的","htmlText":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","listText":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","text":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1f128a94b5289fdf1ad51776500593"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615784506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028601349,"gmtCreate":1653204577882,"gmtModify":1676535240160,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028601349","repostId":"615787219","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615787219,"gmtCreate":1653197882631,"gmtModify":1676533134036,"author":{"id":"4099445609802530","authorId":"4099445609802530","name":"读懂数字财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b9527f1fd2c3dab409752c5c6c9411","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099445609802530","authorIdStr":"4099445609802530"},"themes":[],"title":"螞蟻集團如何重塑想象力（下）：兩張進展不順利的關鍵牌照","htmlText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","listText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","text":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36fd9a13d04d3df702ccf952bb8e5e8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615787219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028603550,"gmtCreate":1653204471970,"gmtModify":1676535240152,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028603550","repostId":"1176182387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021544123,"gmtCreate":1653090673662,"gmtModify":1676535220738,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021544123","repostId":"2237028422","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021544951,"gmtCreate":1653090661673,"gmtModify":1676535220747,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021544951","repostId":"2237028422","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"ver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11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236063801","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has experienced 17 bear markets: an average duration of about a year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b>After a continuous decline, the S&P 500 has fallen 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and a 20% drop would enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some have pointed out that the S&P 500 has actually been in a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>According to business media outlet MarketWatch, Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment firm Boston Partners, said that so far...<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 is likely to hit a low of 3,750 points, and that the S&P 500 may continue to decline as more weaker-than-expected earnings reports are gradually released.</p><p>This Thursday, due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>The performance \"disappointment\", compounded by the previous day<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>With earnings results falling short of expectations, the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest single-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So, based on historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that U.S. stocks have experienced 17 bear markets (or near-bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is about one year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 experienced a 17-month bear market, with a record-breaking 57% drop.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred in early 2020 during the outbreak of the pandemic, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, after which a bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can P/E survive the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings prospects of its constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He emphasized that analysts have consistently expected S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the coming years. Economists also believe that the 12-month forward earnings expectations for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>However, according to di Galoma, managing director of asset management firm Seaport Global Holdings,<b>One risk factor that is currently underestimated is how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and what impact this will have on the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma stated that the economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people imagine,\" and he predicts that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in early 2023, and that \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out that<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could impact the stock P/E.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve remains prepared to continue its aggressive \"tightening,\" shrinking its balance sheet by nearly $9 trillion starting next month and raising its rate hike by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings.</p><p><b>But now the situation is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>In early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he was not actively considering a 75 basis point rate hike, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality,\" causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq Composite to fall by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has experienced 17 bear markets: an average duration of about a year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b>After a continuous decline, the S&P 500 has fallen 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and a 20% drop would enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some have pointed out that the S&P 500 has actually been in a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>According to business media outlet MarketWatch, Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment firm Boston Partners, said that so far...<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 is likely to hit a low of 3,750 points, and that the S&P 500 may continue to decline as more weaker-than-expected earnings reports are gradually released.</p><p>This Thursday, due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>The performance \"disappointment\", compounded by the previous day<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>With earnings results falling short of expectations, the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest single-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So, based on historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that U.S. stocks have experienced 17 bear markets (or near-bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is about one year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 experienced a 17-month bear market, with a record-breaking 57% drop.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred in early 2020 during the outbreak of the pandemic, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, after which a bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can P/E survive the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings prospects of its constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He emphasized that analysts have consistently expected S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the coming years. Economists also believe that the 12-month forward earnings expectations for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>However, according to di Galoma, managing director of asset management firm Seaport Global Holdings,<b>One risk factor that is currently underestimated is how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and what impact this will have on the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma stated that the economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people imagine,\" and he predicts that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in early 2023, and that \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out that<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could impact the stock P/E.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve remains prepared to continue its aggressive \"tightening,\" shrinking its balance sheet by nearly $9 trillion starting next month and raising its rate hike by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings.</p><p><b>But now the situation is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>In early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he was not actively considering a 75 basis point rate hike, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality,\" causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq Composite to fall by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236063801","content_text":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定义上的熊市。然而有声音指出，在过去数周标普500指数其实已经是熊市风格。商业媒体MarketWatch提及，投资机构Boston Partners全球市场研究主管Mike Mullaney表示，到目前为止，标普500指数中61%的成分股已经进入熊市。研究机构凯投宏观的Thomas Mathews认为，标普500指数很容易触及3750点的低位），并且随着更多不及预期的财报逐步公布，标普500指数或将继续下行。本周四由于美国第二大零售消费集团塔吉特业绩“暴雷”，叠加前一天沃尔玛财报成绩低于预期，标普500指数在周日创下2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。那么从历史经验来看，标普500指数进入熊市后会如何发展？投资管理平台LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick在周三报告中表示，自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市（或接近熊市）。而一般来说，标普500指数一旦进入熊市，就会进一步下跌。平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在2007年-2009年的金融危机中，标普500指数的熊市行情长达17个月，并且创下历史最高57%的跌幅。持续时间最长的熊市发生在1973年-1974年，标普500指数在近21个月的时间内下挫48.2%。持续时间最短的熊市发生在2020年初疫情爆发之时，当时标普500指数在23个交易日内重挫近34%，并在3月23日触底，之后便开启了牛市行情。经济衰退危机下 “市盈率”能否保住？凯投宏观Mathews认为，尽管标普500指数距离熊市仅一步之遥，但是成分股的盈利预期仍值得期待。他对此强调称，分析师们一直预计标普500指数成分股将在未来几年内实现近两位数的盈利增长。经济学家也认为，这些成分股的12个月远期盈利预期仍比疫情前高出16%左右。但是按照资产管理机构Seaport Global Holdings的董事总经理di Galoma的说法，当前有一个风险因素被低估，那就是在当前环境下金融和经济状况会以多快的速度恶化，会对股市造成怎样的冲击。di Galoma表示经济恶化速度“正在加速，而且会比人们想象的要快得多”，他预计美国经济将在 2023年初陷入衰退，并且“这次衰退将非常严重”。Mathews同样指出，美联储的货币政策就是另一个“关键冲击”，可能会对股票市盈率造成影响。当前美联储仍旧准备继续激进“收水”，从下月开始缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，并在6月和7月两次会议上分别加息50个基点。但现在的情况是，投资者正在试图忽略加息的影响。此前在5月初当美联储主席鲍威尔表示未积极考虑加息75个基点，市场随即欢呼雀跃，然而在第二天就开始“回归现实”，导致道指狂泻千点，纳指暴跌5%，标普500指数重挫3.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021830661,"gmtCreate":1653022505753,"gmtModify":1676535210431,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021830661","repostId":"2236063801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236063801","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653274939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236063801?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236063801","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has experienced 17 bear markets: an average duration of about a year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b>After a continuous decline, the S&P 500 has fallen 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and a 20% drop would enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some have pointed out that the S&P 500 has actually been in a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>According to business media outlet MarketWatch, Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment firm Boston Partners, said that so far...<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 is likely to hit a low of 3,750 points, and that the S&P 500 may continue to decline as more weaker-than-expected earnings reports are gradually released.</p><p>This Thursday, due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>The performance \"disappointment\", compounded by the previous day<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>With earnings results falling short of expectations, the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest single-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So, based on historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that U.S. stocks have experienced 17 bear markets (or near-bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is about one year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 experienced a 17-month bear market, with a record-breaking 57% drop.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred in early 2020 during the outbreak of the pandemic, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, after which a bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can P/E survive the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings prospects of its constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He emphasized that analysts have consistently expected S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the coming years. Economists also believe that the 12-month forward earnings expectations for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>However, according to di Galoma, managing director of asset management firm Seaport Global Holdings,<b>One risk factor that is currently underestimated is how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and what impact this will have on the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma stated that the economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people imagine,\" and he predicts that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in early 2023, and that \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out that<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could impact the stock P/E.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve remains prepared to continue its aggressive \"tightening,\" shrinking its balance sheet by nearly $9 trillion starting next month and raising its rate hike by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings.</p><p><b>But now the situation is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>In early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he was not actively considering a 75 basis point rate hike, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality,\" causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq Composite to fall by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from history: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market; worse is yet to come.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has experienced 17 bear markets: an average duration of about a year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b>After a continuous decline, the S&P 500 has fallen 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and a 20% drop would enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some have pointed out that the S&P 500 has actually been in a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>According to business media outlet MarketWatch, Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment firm Boston Partners, said that so far...<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 is likely to hit a low of 3,750 points, and that the S&P 500 may continue to decline as more weaker-than-expected earnings reports are gradually released.</p><p>This Thursday, due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>The performance \"disappointment\", compounded by the previous day<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>With earnings results falling short of expectations, the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest single-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So, based on historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that U.S. stocks have experienced 17 bear markets (or near-bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is about one year, with a drop of nearly 30% from peak to trough.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 experienced a 17-month bear market, with a record-breaking 57% drop.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred in early 2020 during the outbreak of the pandemic, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, after which a bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can P/E survive the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings prospects of its constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He emphasized that analysts have consistently expected S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the coming years. Economists also believe that the 12-month forward earnings expectations for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>However, according to di Galoma, managing director of asset management firm Seaport Global Holdings,<b>One risk factor that is currently underestimated is how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and what impact this will have on the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma stated that the economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people imagine,\" and he predicts that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in early 2023, and that \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out that<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could impact the stock P/E.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve remains prepared to continue its aggressive \"tightening,\" shrinking its balance sheet by nearly $9 trillion starting next month and raising its rate hike by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings.</p><p><b>But now the situation is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>In early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he was not actively considering a 75 basis point rate hike, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality,\" causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq Composite to fall by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236063801","content_text":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定义上的熊市。然而有声音指出，在过去数周标普500指数其实已经是熊市风格。商业媒体MarketWatch提及，投资机构Boston Partners全球市场研究主管Mike Mullaney表示，到目前为止，标普500指数中61%的成分股已经进入熊市。研究机构凯投宏观的Thomas Mathews认为，标普500指数很容易触及3750点的低位），并且随着更多不及预期的财报逐步公布，标普500指数或将继续下行。本周四由于美国第二大零售消费集团塔吉特业绩“暴雷”，叠加前一天沃尔玛财报成绩低于预期，标普500指数在周日创下2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。那么从历史经验来看，标普500指数进入熊市后会如何发展？投资管理平台LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick在周三报告中表示，自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市（或接近熊市）。而一般来说，标普500指数一旦进入熊市，就会进一步下跌。平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在2007年-2009年的金融危机中，标普500指数的熊市行情长达17个月，并且创下历史最高57%的跌幅。持续时间最长的熊市发生在1973年-1974年，标普500指数在近21个月的时间内下挫48.2%。持续时间最短的熊市发生在2020年初疫情爆发之时，当时标普500指数在23个交易日内重挫近34%，并在3月23日触底，之后便开启了牛市行情。经济衰退危机下 “市盈率”能否保住？凯投宏观Mathews认为，尽管标普500指数距离熊市仅一步之遥，但是成分股的盈利预期仍值得期待。他对此强调称，分析师们一直预计标普500指数成分股将在未来几年内实现近两位数的盈利增长。经济学家也认为，这些成分股的12个月远期盈利预期仍比疫情前高出16%左右。但是按照资产管理机构Seaport Global Holdings的董事总经理di Galoma的说法，当前有一个风险因素被低估，那就是在当前环境下金融和经济状况会以多快的速度恶化，会对股市造成怎样的冲击。di Galoma表示经济恶化速度“正在加速，而且会比人们想象的要快得多”，他预计美国经济将在 2023年初陷入衰退，并且“这次衰退将非常严重”。Mathews同样指出，美联储的货币政策就是另一个“关键冲击”，可能会对股票市盈率造成影响。当前美联储仍旧准备继续激进“收水”，从下月开始缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，并在6月和7月两次会议上分别加息50个基点。但现在的情况是，投资者正在试图忽略加息的影响。此前在5月初当美联储主席鲍威尔表示未积极考虑加息75个基点，市场随即欢呼雀跃，然而在第二天就开始“回归现实”，导致道指狂泻千点，纳指暴跌5%，标普500指数重挫3.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":124716002,"gmtCreate":1624791483706,"gmtModify":1703845202768,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124716002","repostId":"1182411664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182411664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624761673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182411664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"With the national carbon trading market about to launch, institutions have identified five major investment directions.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182411664","media":"上海证券报","summary":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。","content":"<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market draws ever closer, related concept stocks have also seen unusual activity. On June 25, the carbon neutrality and energy conservation and environmental protection sectors were active. By the close of trading, multiple stocks, including Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, and Meijin Energy, hit their daily limit, while stocks such as Debang Lighting, Kai'er New Materials, and Zhiguang Electric also saw gains. Recently, securities firms have also released a series of research reports focusing on the investment opportunities brought about by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that the launch of the national carbon market will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries, and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. The scale of carbon trading will rapidly increase in the national carbon market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the national carbon trading market about to launch, institutions have identified five major investment directions.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the national carbon trading market about to launch, institutions have identified five major investment directions.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market draws ever closer, related concept stocks have also seen unusual activity. On June 25, the carbon neutrality and energy conservation and environmental protection sectors were active. By the close of trading, multiple stocks, including Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, and Meijin Energy, hit their daily limit, while stocks such as Debang Lighting, Kai'er New Materials, and Zhiguang Electric also saw gains. Recently, securities firms have also released a series of research reports focusing on the investment opportunities brought about by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that the launch of the national carbon market will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries, and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. The scale of carbon trading will rapidly increase in the national carbon market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8eab65ec7981d9d3c6a4d13a066308","relate_stocks":{"300234":"开尔新材","600698":"湖南天雁","603303":"得邦照明","002564":"天沃科技","000723":"美锦能源","002169":"智光电气"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182411664","content_text":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。\n6月25日，碳中和、节能环保板块表现活跃。截至收盘，天沃科技、湖南天雁、美锦能源等多股涨停，得邦照明、开尔新材、智光电气等个股纷纷拉升。\n\n近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。\n碳交易规模将迅速攀升\n全国碳市场启动之后，市场规模究竟有多大？\n据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。未来，我国碳市场覆盖范围将逐步扩大，到2030年累计交易额或将超过1000亿元。\n“伴随双碳目标逐步实现、控排覆盖企业增加以及碳交易市场成熟，我们推测碳交易规模将迅速攀升，仅碳排放现货交易一项，市场规模就有望于2030年突破千亿元。”中航证券高端制造团队指出。\n此外，机构认为碳交易市场正式上线后，有望带来碳交易量价齐升。中航证券高端制造团队表示，当前国内的碳交易成交量及价格显著低于国际水平，而全国碳交易系统建立将有助于提高市场活力，刺激企业向清洁能源转型，提高碳价格。\n“碳价格作为成本可能传递至电力、钢铁、水泥、炼油等行业。涉及碳交易的龙头企业一般具有技术和规模优势，碳价格对龙头公司影响较小。”平安证券分析师樊金璐表示。\n新能源企业利润有望增厚\n天风证券研究所环保与公用行业首席分析师郭丽丽认为，全国碳市场首批纳入仅是2000多家电力企业，对于不同类型的电力企业影响不一。对于火电企业，短期业绩压力不大，而中长期面临向非化石能源转型的压力较大；对于新能源运营企业，CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）有望增厚其收益，盈利能力或进一步提升。\n华西证券环保公用团队同样看好新能源企业后续业绩空间。其认为，“免费发放+拍卖”相结合的配额分配是未来碳市场发展方向，若未来碳配额价格能够较好地体现经济价值，则新能源运营企业将获得丰厚的额外碳配额交易收入，实现价值重估。\n“新能源发电商价值有望重估，我们按2019年数据测算，将增厚新能源发电利润9%至17%。”华泰证券表示，长期看好新能源发电前景，但是对于火电也不必过度悲观，火电仍具备压舱石效应，行稳致远。\n机构：关注五大投资方向\n机构普遍认为，碳排放权交易是生态环境价值的体现，也是未来一段时间碳达峰、碳中和行动的核心工作。那么从长期投资角度来看，应该关注哪些机遇？\n国盛证券表示，碳交易全国推广，一方面将推动碳排放负外部性利益化，促进碳减排合理、高效、平稳实现。另一方面，立足全球视角，碳关税或将成为长期趋势，碳交易推广也将助力国际贸易全球化。具体而言，可以关注五大投资方向：\n一是高碳排行业集中度提升，龙头优势加速凸显，推荐关注钢铁、金属非金属新材料、工业金属、化学制品、装修装饰和其他建材等细分行业头部企业。\n二是零碳排新能源再获动力，推荐关注光伏、风电、核电、水电等电力细分领域优质标的。\n三是负碳排板块将受益于CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）推广，推荐关注林业碳汇、垃圾处理等相关投资机遇。\n四是碳配额分配与碳交易覆盖度提升均将激发碳排放监测需求，推荐关注环保监测设备、环保工程及服务。\n五是未来有望迎来碳金融产品创新与推广的新发展阶段，推荐关注银行金融板块及碳金融衍生品相关投资机遇。\n此外，首创证券认为，以数字化和信息化为载体的智慧环保将深度赋能碳市场与碳交易。智慧环保是优质赛道，且处于行业生命周期中的快速成长期，相关公司将享受市场爆发的红利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300234":0.9,"600698":0.9,"603303":0.9,"000723":0.9,"002564":0.9,"002169":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882722,"gmtCreate":1627358120366,"gmtModify":1703488322168,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809882722","repostId":"1150761427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150761427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627355599,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150761427?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Bitcoin assets are impaired by $23 million and are about to fall below the cost line.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150761427","media":"界面新闻","summary":"该公司没有报告更新加密货币的减持或增持，仍持价值13亿美元的比特币。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei On July 26, Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, released its second-quarter financial report after the US stock market closed. Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Tesla's Q2 financial report was very impressive, exceeding market expectations. However, its Bitcoin-related assets were impaired by $23 million, and its current net crypto asset value is $1.311 billion. According to Tesla's second-quarter earnings report, the company did not report any updated reductions or increases in cryptocurrency holdings, but still holds $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. Tesla announced in February that it had purchased Value...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Bitcoin assets are impaired by $23 million and are about to fall below the cost line.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Bitcoin assets are impaired by $23 million and are about to fall below the cost line.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei On July 26, Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, released its second-quarter financial report after the US stock market closed. Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Tesla's Q2 financial report was very impressive, exceeding market expectations. However, its Bitcoin-related assets were impaired by $23 million, and its current net crypto asset value is $1.311 billion. According to Tesla's second-quarter earnings report, the company did not report any updated reductions or increases in cryptocurrency holdings, but still holds $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. Tesla announced in February that it had purchased Value...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150761427","content_text":"记者／司林威\n7月26日，全球最大电动汽车制造商特斯拉在美股盘后公布了二季度财报。财报显示，特斯拉在2021年第二季度营收119.6亿美元，同比增长98%。\n特斯拉Q2财报数据非常亮眼，超出市场预期。但其比特币相关资产减值2300万美元，目前净加密资产价值13.11亿美元。\n根据特斯拉第二季度财报，该公司没有报告更新加密货币的减持或增持，仍持价值13亿美元的比特币。\n特斯拉在2月份宣布购买了价值15亿美元的比特币。在2020年第四季度晚些时候，该公司将其比特币头寸削减了10%，这一出售使其第一季度收益增加了2.72亿美元。通过出售比特币特斯拉成功使自己的净利润扭亏转正。\n但今年第二季度一切有了变化。随着5月19日起，加密货币受我国监管政策影响，价格一落千丈，在7月回到了2021年年初水平，特斯拉的持仓成本线也即将被跌穿。\n据《财富》网站估算，特斯拉共计买入了46000枚比特币，平均买入价格约为32600美元。2021年4月，特斯拉第一季度财报披露出售了10%的比特币，即4600枚左右，平均售价为59100美元。这笔交易为该公司带来了2.72亿美元的收入。\n截止二季度财报发布，特斯拉此后一直没有出售和增持比特币，即还持有41400枚比特币，扣除已经了结的利润后，其真实成本应为12.28亿美元，这意味着其单币成本价约为29661美元。\n而财报发布前一星期，比特币价格已接近29000美元，即将跌穿特斯拉的成本线。\n财报发布前，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克大改此前批评态度，对比特币和狗狗币大肆唱多。他在出席活动中明确表示“特斯拉很有可能恢复比特币支付”，又透露旗下另一家公司Space X也持有比特币。\n同时，他还在社交媒体上转发了各种看好狗狗币的表情包，还表示自己的儿子非常喜欢狗狗币。\n北京时间7月27日凌晨3点，比特币价格迅速拉高，一举突破4万美元，创6月17日来的最高价。短暂突破后，比特币价格又迅速跳水3000美元，最低跌至36771美元。截止发稿前最新价格为37386美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096754964,"gmtCreate":1644469679558,"gmtModify":1676533930815,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096754964","repostId":"1164007651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036256654,"gmtCreate":1647131761413,"gmtModify":1676534196311,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036256654","repostId":"2218241000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218241000","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647070207,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218241000?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Are all automakers trying to emulate Tesla, leaving car dealers with \"no way out\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218241000","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉开创了一种新型的电动汽车销售模式——直销，省去了“中间商赚差价”，传统汽车制造商纷纷想要效仿，经销商的利益面临威胁。目前造车新势力基本都是使用这种无经销商的销售模式，比如美国豪华电动汽车制造商L","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It pioneered a new electric vehicle sales model – direct sales, which eliminated the need for \"middlemen to profit from the price difference.\" Traditional automakers wanted to follow suit, but the interests of dealers were threatened.</p><p>Currently, most emerging car manufacturers use this dealership-free sales model, such as in the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric vehicle maker Lucid and electric truck company Rivian. They uniformly open showrooms, while consumers place orders directly through online platforms or retail stores.</p><p>However, franchise laws in various U.S. states typically prohibit traditional automakers from selling directly to consumers, thereby protecting dealers' pricing power and sales channels.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned last week that on March 3rd,<b>Oklahoma, USA, has passed a new law prohibiting companies from selling cars without a dealer license, forcing Tesla, which has no dealers and operates a direct sales model, to withdraw from the market.</b></p><p>Currently, despite consumer dissatisfaction that dealer prices are often thousands of dollars higher than the manufacturer's suggested retail price, most traditional automakers in the United States are still unable to sell their cars directly to ordinary customers.</p><p><h2><b>Is the car sales model about to change dramatically?</b></h2>The success of Tesla's new retail strategy is gradually becoming a threat to traditional automakers.</p><p>Traditional automakers want to abandon the dealership model they have always used and instead emulate the direct sales model of new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla.</p><p><b>Through the direct sales model, these traditional automakers can reclaim pricing power from dealers and control their own sales channels, which will greatly strengthen their relationship with consumers.</b></p><p>Some executives of traditional car companies believe that future sales models should be simpler and more digital. Automakers only need to offer a relatively small number of models and feature combinations, allowing consumers to easily place orders remotely online through a unified display.</p><p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The company proposed a new sales plan: car dealers do not need to stockpile any car inventory in advance, and consumers do not need to \"haggle\" with dealers. Instead, they place orders directly at the factory price of the car manufacturer, and the dealers' main job is to deliver the vehicles.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>The company recently made a similar shift, requiring its GMC brand dealers to sell its newly launched Hummer electric pickup trucks through a direct sales model. General Motors stated that, according to the agreement, consumers can only order the new Hummer electric pickup truck through the GMC website.</p><p><b>However, this has squeezed the role of car dealers, and their position is \"precarious\". For car dealers, they must find a way out as soon as possible, otherwise they will be defeated by the new retail model of cars.</b></p><p>Overall, these moves by established automakers such as Ford and General Motors signify the modernization of the deeply ingrained traditional car sales model in the United States. This weekend, the annual meeting of the American Automobile Dealers Association will be held in Las Vegas, which is expected to generate widespread discussion.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are all automakers trying to emulate Tesla, leaving car dealers with \"no way out\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre all automakers trying to emulate Tesla, leaving car dealers with \"no way out\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-12 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It pioneered a new electric vehicle sales model – direct sales, which eliminated the need for \"middlemen to profit from the price difference.\" Traditional automakers wanted to follow suit, but the interests of dealers were threatened.</p><p>Currently, most emerging car manufacturers use this dealership-free sales model, such as in the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric vehicle maker Lucid and electric truck company Rivian. They uniformly open showrooms, while consumers place orders directly through online platforms or retail stores.</p><p>However, franchise laws in various U.S. states typically prohibit traditional automakers from selling directly to consumers, thereby protecting dealers' pricing power and sales channels.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned last week that on March 3rd,<b>Oklahoma, USA, has passed a new law prohibiting companies from selling cars without a dealer license, forcing Tesla, which has no dealers and operates a direct sales model, to withdraw from the market.</b></p><p>Currently, despite consumer dissatisfaction that dealer prices are often thousands of dollars higher than the manufacturer's suggested retail price, most traditional automakers in the United States are still unable to sell their cars directly to ordinary customers.</p><p><h2><b>Is the car sales model about to change dramatically?</b></h2>The success of Tesla's new retail strategy is gradually becoming a threat to traditional automakers.</p><p>Traditional automakers want to abandon the dealership model they have always used and instead emulate the direct sales model of new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla.</p><p><b>Through the direct sales model, these traditional automakers can reclaim pricing power from dealers and control their own sales channels, which will greatly strengthen their relationship with consumers.</b></p><p>Some executives of traditional car companies believe that future sales models should be simpler and more digital. Automakers only need to offer a relatively small number of models and feature combinations, allowing consumers to easily place orders remotely online through a unified display.</p><p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The company proposed a new sales plan: car dealers do not need to stockpile any car inventory in advance, and consumers do not need to \"haggle\" with dealers. Instead, they place orders directly at the factory price of the car manufacturer, and the dealers' main job is to deliver the vehicles.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>The company recently made a similar shift, requiring its GMC brand dealers to sell its newly launched Hummer electric pickup trucks through a direct sales model. General Motors stated that, according to the agreement, consumers can only order the new Hummer electric pickup truck through the GMC website.</p><p><b>However, this has squeezed the role of car dealers, and their position is \"precarious\". For car dealers, they must find a way out as soon as possible, otherwise they will be defeated by the new retail model of cars.</b></p><p>Overall, these moves by established automakers such as Ford and General Motors signify the modernization of the deeply ingrained traditional car sales model in the United States. This weekend, the annual meeting of the American Automobile Dealers Association will be held in Las Vegas, which is expected to generate widespread discussion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654068\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654068","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218241000","content_text":"特斯拉开创了一种新型的电动汽车销售模式——直销，省去了“中间商赚差价”，传统汽车制造商纷纷想要效仿，经销商的利益面临威胁。目前造车新势力基本都是使用这种无经销商的销售模式，比如美国豪华电动汽车制造商Lucid和电动卡车公司Rivian。他们统一开设展厅，而消费者通过线上平台或零售店直接下单。然而美国各个州的特许经营法通常禁止传统汽车公司直接向消费者销售，从而达到保护经销商的定价权和销售渠道的目的。华尔街见闻上周提及，3月3日，美国俄克拉荷马州通过了一项新法案——禁止未获得经销商牌照的公司销售汽车，导致没有任何经销商、采用直销模式的特斯拉被迫退出该市场。目前来看，尽管消费者不满经销商的售价往往比制造商建议的零售价高出数千美元，但是美国的传统汽车公司目前仍然大多没法将汽车直销给普通客户。汽车销售模式要变天？特斯拉新零售战略的成功正逐渐成为传统汽车公司的威胁。传统汽车制造商想要放弃一直沿用的经销商模式，转而效仿特斯拉等新能源汽车制造商的直营销售模式。通过直销模式，这些传统汽车制造商可以从经销商手中夺回定价权，并自己掌控销售渠道，这将大大拉近与消费者之间的关系。一些传统汽车公司的高管认为，未来的销售模式应该更简单、更数字化。汽车制造商只需要提供相对较少的车型和功能组合，可以让消费者通过统一的展示，从而简单地线上远程下单。最近，福特汽车公司提出了一项新的销售计划：汽车经销商不用事先储备任何汽车库存，消费者也不用和经销商“讨价还价”，而是直接以汽车制造商的出厂价格下单，而经销商的主要工作就是交付车辆。通用汽车公司近期也有类似的转变举措，要求其GMC品牌经销商以直销的模式来销售新推出的悍马电动皮卡车。通用汽车称，根据协议规定，消费者只能通过GMC网站订购新的悍马电动皮卡车。可是如此一来，汽车经销商的作用空间被挤压，地位“岌岌可危”。对于汽车经销商来说，他们必须尽快找到出路，不然就会被汽车的新零售模式打败。总体来看，福特、通用等老牌汽车制造商的这些举措标志着美国根深蒂固的传统汽车销售模式正在变得现代化。本周末，美国汽车经销商协会年会将在拉斯维加斯举行，预计届时将引起广泛讨论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196228959,"gmtCreate":1621059901071,"gmtModify":1704352600497,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196228959","repostId":"2135983438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135983438","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股大V独家情报资讯，聪明的海外投资者都在这里！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股情报局","id":"93","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35928b82e1d94fecbe1be1572e5703b0"},"pubTimestamp":1621068324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135983438?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-15 16:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How did the masters cope with the stock market decline?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135983438","media":"美股情报局","summary":"巴菲特、达里奥、索罗斯等大师是如何应对股市下跌的？大师们如何应对大跌？但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌，道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%，而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。目前，桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司，管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%，远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅，索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。","content":"<p>How did masters like Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?</p><p>Buffett stated that when the stock market falls, one should not closely monitor its performance, but rather remain calm and hold it for the long term.</p><p>Graham: First, never lose money; Second, never forget the first rule.</p><p>Dalio stated that investors are always more likely to sell when the market is declining, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not succeed. It is important to remain calm and operate in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a crash the best opportunity to make big money: huge fortunes are often only earned during such stock market crashes.</p><p>Soros: To gain wealth, you need to recognize its illusions, invest in it, and then exit the game before the illusions are recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROG\">Rogers</a>Buy what's worth, sell what's crazy.</p><p>What should ordinary investors do if the stock market crashes?</p><p><b>How did the masters cope with the sharp drop?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay calm and hold for the long term</b></p><p>According to Warren Buffett, the best approach for investors when facing sharp stock market fluctuations is to remain calm and adhere to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock market guru with over fifty years of investment experience, Warren Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"<b>Don't pay close attention to stock market performance when the stock market is falling. If an investor worries when the stock market falls and then thinks about selling their stocks when the stock market recovers, then such an investor will not ultimately reap the desired returns.</b>」</p><p>Buffett has consistently emphasized that long-term investing is an important factor in achieving ideal returns. He believes that the returns from investing in the stock market come from holding stocks of high-quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, or 30 years, they will eventually reap good returns.</p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders, Buffett explained that the market is always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of their level of investment experience, is to remain calm.</p><p>He wrote: While markets are usually rational, they can occasionally go crazy. For investors, seizing opportunities doesn't require much intelligence or an economics degree.</p><p>All investors need is the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on fundamentals. In addition, the willingness to remain boring, even silly, for a considerable period of time is also very important.</p><p><b>Graham</b></p><p><b>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the first rule.</b></p><p>Graham is Warren Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the pioneer of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 381 points before beginning to decline. On October 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 12%, a day described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a low of 198 points before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points, a rebound of as much as 43%. As a result, many investors believe that the worst is over and the stock market is about to reverse dramatically. Graham thought so too, so he started buying at the bottom.</p><p>He bought only good stocks that were very cheap in terms of valuation, and in order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leveraged operations. However, the stock market rally continued until April, when it began to plummet again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33% in 1930, while the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had reached a low of 41 points, a maximum drop of 89% from its peak of 381 points. During the same period, Graham's fund management lost as much as 78%, and this huge bear market almost bankrupted him.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback, writing the investment bibles \"Securities Analysis\" and \"The Intelligent Investor,\" summarizing a timeless fundamental principle of value investing: margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p><b>Dalio: Stay calm and operate in reverse.</b></p><p>Like Buffett, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, also believes that investors should not panic when facing a stock market decline and should remain calm.</p><p>Dalio stated that investors are always more likely to sell when the market is declining, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not succeed.</p><p>Conversely, when the market is falling, investors need to do the opposite, that is, when you are no longer afraid, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy.</p><p>Currently, Bridgewater Associates has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management reaching $150 billion.</p><p>In his book \"Principles,\" Dalio shares three things he learned from the market crash: First, one should not be overly confident and allow oneself to be swayed by emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should not confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again realized the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to seize market opportunities. One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to only place risky bets on investments you have a high degree of confidence in, and to diversify your investments thoroughly.</p><p>Wise people always keep an eye on sound fundamentals through various ups and downs; Frivolous people, on the other hand, follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush into popular things, and immediately give up when they're not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without exposing yourself to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p><b>Peter Lynch</b></p><p>The historical patterns of stock market fluctuations tell us that all major crashes will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that a stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risk and create investment opportunities, allowing you to buy shares of excellent companies at very low prices. But buying at the bottom is not that simple. Instead of constantly buying at the bottom and getting trapped, it's better to wait until the bottom appears before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to abject poverty, suffered mental breakdowns, and even committed suicide. At the time, Peter Lynch, a superstar in the American securities industry, managed the Magellan Fund, which managed more than $10 billion. In one day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, or as much as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-ended fund managers, has only one option: sell stocks. To cope with the unusually large redemptions, Lynch had to sell all his shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels terrified when he recalls it. \"At that moment, I really couldn't be sure whether it was the end of the world, whether we were about to fall into a severe Great Depression, or whether things hadn't gotten that bad yet, and it was just that Wall Street was about to collapse?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market crashes, but he still achieved very successful results.</p><p>First, don't panic and sell all your stocks at low prices. If you desperately sell stocks during a stock market crash, your selling price will often be very low. The market in October 1987 was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks on that day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, or more than 23%.</p><p>Second, one must have unwavering courage to hold stocks in good companies. Third, you should dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. A crash is the best opportunity to make big money: huge wealth is often only available during such stock market crashes.</p><p><b>Soros</b></p><p>World economic history is a series of dramas based on illusions and lies. To acquire wealth, one must recognize its illusions, engage in them, and then exit the game before the illusions are recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros believed that the Japanese stock market was in a huge bubble and shorted Japanese stocks, which resulted in a disastrous failure, and the Japanese stock market remained bullish until 1989. Soros advocated on Wall Street Commentary that the U.S. stock market would remain strong and the Japanese stock market would crash, but the result was exactly the opposite: the U.S. stock market crashed, while the Japanese stock market remained strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, the first to experience a major collapse was not the Japanese stock market, but rather Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York plummeted 508 points, setting a new historical record at the time. Over the next week, the New York stock market continued to decline. The Japanese stock market, however, remained relatively strong. Soros decided to sell several large long-term stock holdings.</p><p>Other traders picked up on this information and took the opportunity to smash the sold-off stocks down, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost approximately $650 million to $800 million in this Wall Street crash.</p><p>This crash caused the Quantum Fund's net assets to fall by 26.2%, far greater than the 17% drop in the US stock market, making Soros the biggest loser of this disaster.</p><p>The ultimate reason for Soros's disastrous defeat back then was speculative psychology, which led to huge losses due to his stubborn pursuit of market opportunities.</p><p>Mistakes are not shameful; what is shameful is that they are already obvious and are not corrected. Taking risks is beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to take a gamble. Right or wrong is not important; what matters is how much you lose when you make a mistake and how much you gain when you make a correct judgment.</p><p><b>Jim Rogers: Buy What It's Worth, Sell Its Madness</b></p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that one should patiently wait for the right opportunity, take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. Only in this way can one defeat others.</p><p>Market trends often experience prolonged periods of stagnation. To avoid getting funds stuck in a stagnant market, investors should wait for catalysts to emerge that can change the market trend. Buy what's worth, sell what's crazy.</p><p><b>Philip Fisher</b></p><p>Philip Fisher is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern investment</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, a godfather-level investment master, and one of the most respected and admired investors on Wall Street.</p><p>You need to learn to spend a lot of time researching and not rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in a frenzied bull market before the crash, but Fisher found that the prospects for many American industries were unstable and the stock market was in a serious bubble.</p><p>In August 1929, he submitted a report to senior bank executives stating that \"the worst bear market in 25 years is about to begin.\" This is arguably the most impressive stock market prediction of Fisher's life, but unfortunately, Fisher was \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be misled by the volatility of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't yet risen to their full potential.\" In October 1929, the US stock market suddenly crashed, and Fisher was not spared either. He suffered heavy losses in the crash, and Fisher also lost everything.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor determining stock prices was not the P/E ratio of that year, but the expected P/E ratio for the next few years. He said that if one can cultivate one's ability to determine the potential performance of a stock in the next few years within reasonable upper and lower limits, one can find a key to not only avoiding losses but also making substantial profits.</p><p><b>Bill Miller</b></p><p>「<b>I often remind my analysts that your information about a company is 100% representative of the company's past, while the valuation of a stock depends 100% on the future.</b>」</p><p>Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust outperformed the S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history and being hailed as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, this honor was destroyed by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many previously excellent companies fell sharply, and Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so they bought against the trend. He thought the crisis was a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his contrarian investment decisions over the past 15 years have proven correct in hindsight, this time he has failed miserably. Miller's stock list is like a \"list of martyrs\" in this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKMU\">Mutual Aid Bank</a>etc.</p><p>In a 2008 interview, Miller, now 58, said, \"I failed to properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis from the beginning.\"</p><p>Although Miller has often profited from market panic in the past, he said he did not expect the crisis to be so severe and the fundamental problems to be so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that were once the market leaders have collapsed.</p><p>\"I still lack experience,\" Miller said. \"Every decision I made to buy stocks was wrong, it's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson learned: \"Any highly performing portfolio succeeds over a certain period of time because it has the safety net against price misalignment. The market's estimate of this future figure is wrong. We identify price misalignment by comparing the market's valuation of the company with our own valuation of the company, using a combination of factors.\"</p><p><b>What should ordinary investors do when the stock market crashes?</b></p><p><b>Situation 1: The stocks you hold have fallen to the cost zone.</b></p><p>Recommendation: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to exit the market, while more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price and observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't sell blindly, and don't get emotional about the stocks you bought. At this moment, you must be clear-headed.</p><p><b>Situation 2: The stocks you hold have already incurred losses.</b></p><p>Recommendation: Such losses also need to be categorized. Investors can check relevant information. If the stocks they hold are heavily held by the fund, they should not blindly cut their positions. In fact, if the market plummets rapidly, they can add to their positions in batches to reduce costs and fight the fund to the end. (This advice is not suitable for use during a bear market or stock market crash.)</p><p>If, after reviewing the information, it is found that the main players in the stock are mainly manipulated by a few large investors, investors should resolutely exit such stocks in the context of a persistently poor market, preserve their cash, and strive for greater initiative. Because the major players in these stocks generally do not support the market when it actually plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively low trading volume and no obvious signs of major players intervening. In such cases, it is essential to set a stop-loss price. These stocks are mainly characterized by following the trend, and once they fall below a long-established platform, you must resolutely exit the market.</p><p><b>Situation 3: Half of your holdings are money and half are stocks.</b></p><p>Recommendation: If an investor's stock is profitable but the market trend remains unclear, they should sell the stock and retain cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and retaining cash is the only way to have a greater say in the market.</p><p>If you have already suffered losses in these stocks, investors should quickly replenish their holdings after the market has fallen sharply and shown signs of stabilizing. If the stock rises significantly that day after adding to the position, you can do a disguised T+0 on the same day to lock in a portion of the profits.</p><p><b>Situation 4: I have all the money and want to enter the market.</b></p><p>Recommendation: If you are an aggressive investor with a certain level of market analysis skills, you can seize rebounds based on market conditions, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the masters cope with the stock market decline?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the masters cope with the stock market decline?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/93\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/35928b82e1d94fecbe1be1572e5703b0);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股情报局 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-15 16:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How did masters like Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?</p><p>Buffett stated that when the stock market falls, one should not closely monitor its performance, but rather remain calm and hold it for the long term.</p><p>Graham: First, never lose money; Second, never forget the first rule.</p><p>Dalio stated that investors are always more likely to sell when the market is declining, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not succeed. It is important to remain calm and operate in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a crash the best opportunity to make big money: huge fortunes are often only earned during such stock market crashes.</p><p>Soros: To gain wealth, you need to recognize its illusions, invest in it, and then exit the game before the illusions are recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROG\">Rogers</a>Buy what's worth, sell what's crazy.</p><p>What should ordinary investors do if the stock market crashes?</p><p><b>How did the masters cope with the sharp drop?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay calm and hold for the long term</b></p><p>According to Warren Buffett, the best approach for investors when facing sharp stock market fluctuations is to remain calm and adhere to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock market guru with over fifty years of investment experience, Warren Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"<b>Don't pay close attention to stock market performance when the stock market is falling. If an investor worries when the stock market falls and then thinks about selling their stocks when the stock market recovers, then such an investor will not ultimately reap the desired returns.</b>」</p><p>Buffett has consistently emphasized that long-term investing is an important factor in achieving ideal returns. He believes that the returns from investing in the stock market come from holding stocks of high-quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, or 30 years, they will eventually reap good returns.</p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders, Buffett explained that the market is always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of their level of investment experience, is to remain calm.</p><p>He wrote: While markets are usually rational, they can occasionally go crazy. For investors, seizing opportunities doesn't require much intelligence or an economics degree.</p><p>All investors need is the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on fundamentals. In addition, the willingness to remain boring, even silly, for a considerable period of time is also very important.</p><p><b>Graham</b></p><p><b>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the first rule.</b></p><p>Graham is Warren Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the pioneer of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 381 points before beginning to decline. On October 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 12%, a day described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a low of 198 points before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points, a rebound of as much as 43%. As a result, many investors believe that the worst is over and the stock market is about to reverse dramatically. Graham thought so too, so he started buying at the bottom.</p><p>He bought only good stocks that were very cheap in terms of valuation, and in order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leveraged operations. However, the stock market rally continued until April, when it began to plummet again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33% in 1930, while the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had reached a low of 41 points, a maximum drop of 89% from its peak of 381 points. During the same period, Graham's fund management lost as much as 78%, and this huge bear market almost bankrupted him.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback, writing the investment bibles \"Securities Analysis\" and \"The Intelligent Investor,\" summarizing a timeless fundamental principle of value investing: margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p><b>Dalio: Stay calm and operate in reverse.</b></p><p>Like Buffett, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, also believes that investors should not panic when facing a stock market decline and should remain calm.</p><p>Dalio stated that investors are always more likely to sell when the market is declining, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not succeed.</p><p>Conversely, when the market is falling, investors need to do the opposite, that is, when you are no longer afraid, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy.</p><p>Currently, Bridgewater Associates has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management reaching $150 billion.</p><p>In his book \"Principles,\" Dalio shares three things he learned from the market crash: First, one should not be overly confident and allow oneself to be swayed by emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should not confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again realized the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to seize market opportunities. One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to only place risky bets on investments you have a high degree of confidence in, and to diversify your investments thoroughly.</p><p>Wise people always keep an eye on sound fundamentals through various ups and downs; Frivolous people, on the other hand, follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush into popular things, and immediately give up when they're not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without exposing yourself to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p><b>Peter Lynch</b></p><p>The historical patterns of stock market fluctuations tell us that all major crashes will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that a stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risk and create investment opportunities, allowing you to buy shares of excellent companies at very low prices. But buying at the bottom is not that simple. Instead of constantly buying at the bottom and getting trapped, it's better to wait until the bottom appears before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to abject poverty, suffered mental breakdowns, and even committed suicide. At the time, Peter Lynch, a superstar in the American securities industry, managed the Magellan Fund, which managed more than $10 billion. In one day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, or as much as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-ended fund managers, has only one option: sell stocks. To cope with the unusually large redemptions, Lynch had to sell all his shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels terrified when he recalls it. \"At that moment, I really couldn't be sure whether it was the end of the world, whether we were about to fall into a severe Great Depression, or whether things hadn't gotten that bad yet, and it was just that Wall Street was about to collapse?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market crashes, but he still achieved very successful results.</p><p>First, don't panic and sell all your stocks at low prices. If you desperately sell stocks during a stock market crash, your selling price will often be very low. The market in October 1987 was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks on that day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, or more than 23%.</p><p>Second, one must have unwavering courage to hold stocks in good companies. Third, you should dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. A crash is the best opportunity to make big money: huge wealth is often only available during such stock market crashes.</p><p><b>Soros</b></p><p>World economic history is a series of dramas based on illusions and lies. To acquire wealth, one must recognize its illusions, engage in them, and then exit the game before the illusions are recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros believed that the Japanese stock market was in a huge bubble and shorted Japanese stocks, which resulted in a disastrous failure, and the Japanese stock market remained bullish until 1989. Soros advocated on Wall Street Commentary that the U.S. stock market would remain strong and the Japanese stock market would crash, but the result was exactly the opposite: the U.S. stock market crashed, while the Japanese stock market remained strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, the first to experience a major collapse was not the Japanese stock market, but rather Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York plummeted 508 points, setting a new historical record at the time. Over the next week, the New York stock market continued to decline. The Japanese stock market, however, remained relatively strong. Soros decided to sell several large long-term stock holdings.</p><p>Other traders picked up on this information and took the opportunity to smash the sold-off stocks down, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost approximately $650 million to $800 million in this Wall Street crash.</p><p>This crash caused the Quantum Fund's net assets to fall by 26.2%, far greater than the 17% drop in the US stock market, making Soros the biggest loser of this disaster.</p><p>The ultimate reason for Soros's disastrous defeat back then was speculative psychology, which led to huge losses due to his stubborn pursuit of market opportunities.</p><p>Mistakes are not shameful; what is shameful is that they are already obvious and are not corrected. Taking risks is beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to take a gamble. Right or wrong is not important; what matters is how much you lose when you make a mistake and how much you gain when you make a correct judgment.</p><p><b>Jim Rogers: Buy What It's Worth, Sell Its Madness</b></p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that one should patiently wait for the right opportunity, take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. Only in this way can one defeat others.</p><p>Market trends often experience prolonged periods of stagnation. To avoid getting funds stuck in a stagnant market, investors should wait for catalysts to emerge that can change the market trend. Buy what's worth, sell what's crazy.</p><p><b>Philip Fisher</b></p><p>Philip Fisher is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern investment</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, a godfather-level investment master, and one of the most respected and admired investors on Wall Street.</p><p>You need to learn to spend a lot of time researching and not rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in a frenzied bull market before the crash, but Fisher found that the prospects for many American industries were unstable and the stock market was in a serious bubble.</p><p>In August 1929, he submitted a report to senior bank executives stating that \"the worst bear market in 25 years is about to begin.\" This is arguably the most impressive stock market prediction of Fisher's life, but unfortunately, Fisher was \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be misled by the volatility of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't yet risen to their full potential.\" In October 1929, the US stock market suddenly crashed, and Fisher was not spared either. He suffered heavy losses in the crash, and Fisher also lost everything.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor determining stock prices was not the P/E ratio of that year, but the expected P/E ratio for the next few years. He said that if one can cultivate one's ability to determine the potential performance of a stock in the next few years within reasonable upper and lower limits, one can find a key to not only avoiding losses but also making substantial profits.</p><p><b>Bill Miller</b></p><p>「<b>I often remind my analysts that your information about a company is 100% representative of the company's past, while the valuation of a stock depends 100% on the future.</b>」</p><p>Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust outperformed the S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history and being hailed as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, this honor was destroyed by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many previously excellent companies fell sharply, and Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so they bought against the trend. He thought the crisis was a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his contrarian investment decisions over the past 15 years have proven correct in hindsight, this time he has failed miserably. Miller's stock list is like a \"list of martyrs\" in this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKMU\">Mutual Aid Bank</a>etc.</p><p>In a 2008 interview, Miller, now 58, said, \"I failed to properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis from the beginning.\"</p><p>Although Miller has often profited from market panic in the past, he said he did not expect the crisis to be so severe and the fundamental problems to be so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that were once the market leaders have collapsed.</p><p>\"I still lack experience,\" Miller said. \"Every decision I made to buy stocks was wrong, it's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson learned: \"Any highly performing portfolio succeeds over a certain period of time because it has the safety net against price misalignment. The market's estimate of this future figure is wrong. We identify price misalignment by comparing the market's valuation of the company with our own valuation of the company, using a combination of factors.\"</p><p><b>What should ordinary investors do when the stock market crashes?</b></p><p><b>Situation 1: The stocks you hold have fallen to the cost zone.</b></p><p>Recommendation: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to exit the market, while more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price and observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't sell blindly, and don't get emotional about the stocks you bought. At this moment, you must be clear-headed.</p><p><b>Situation 2: The stocks you hold have already incurred losses.</b></p><p>Recommendation: Such losses also need to be categorized. Investors can check relevant information. If the stocks they hold are heavily held by the fund, they should not blindly cut their positions. In fact, if the market plummets rapidly, they can add to their positions in batches to reduce costs and fight the fund to the end. (This advice is not suitable for use during a bear market or stock market crash.)</p><p>If, after reviewing the information, it is found that the main players in the stock are mainly manipulated by a few large investors, investors should resolutely exit such stocks in the context of a persistently poor market, preserve their cash, and strive for greater initiative. Because the major players in these stocks generally do not support the market when it actually plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively low trading volume and no obvious signs of major players intervening. In such cases, it is essential to set a stop-loss price. These stocks are mainly characterized by following the trend, and once they fall below a long-established platform, you must resolutely exit the market.</p><p><b>Situation 3: Half of your holdings are money and half are stocks.</b></p><p>Recommendation: If an investor's stock is profitable but the market trend remains unclear, they should sell the stock and retain cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and retaining cash is the only way to have a greater say in the market.</p><p>If you have already suffered losses in these stocks, investors should quickly replenish their holdings after the market has fallen sharply and shown signs of stabilizing. If the stock rises significantly that day after adding to the position, you can do a disguised T+0 on the same day to lock in a portion of the profits.</p><p><b>Situation 4: I have all the money and want to enter the market.</b></p><p>Recommendation: If you are an aggressive investor with a certain level of market analysis skills, you can seize rebounds based on market conditions, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8844d34a68c737501939fc425fd6195b","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135983438","content_text":"巴菲特、达里奥、索罗斯等大师是如何应对股市下跌的？巴菲特表示当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现，要保持冷静，长期持有。格雷厄姆：第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功，要保持镇定，反向操作。彼得林奇称暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。索罗斯：要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂。如果股市暴跌，普通投资者应该怎么办？大师们如何应对大跌？巴菲特：保持冷静，长期持有在股神巴菲特看来，投资者在面对股市剧烈波动时，最好的方法应该是保持冷静，并坚守长期持有的投资原则。作为拥有长达五十多年投资生涯的股神，巴菲特曾在2016年的一次采访中告诫投资者：「当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现。如果一个投资者遇到股市下跌就忧心忡忡，然后想着等股市回升时就抛掉手中的股票，那么这种投资者最终不会获得理想的回报。」一直以来，巴菲特都在强调长期投资是取得理想收益的重要因素。他认为，投资股市所获得的收益来自于长期持有优质公司的股票。如果投资者购买优质公司的股票，且持有这些股票10年、20年、30年之久，那么他们最终将会取得不错的回报。巴菲特曾在致股东的年度信中解释说，市场总是处于波动之中，因此对于每个投资者来说，无论投资经验深浅，最好的选择就是保持镇定。他写道：虽然通常情况下市场是理性的，但市场偶尔也会有疯狂之举。对于投资者而言，抓住机遇并不需要太多的智慧或经济学位。投资者需要的，仅仅是无视市场恐慌或狂热的能力，并将注意力集中在基本面上即可。另外，能在相当长的时期内保持无趣、甚至是愚蠢的意愿也十分重要。格雷厄姆第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。格雷厄姆是巴菲特的导师，证券分析之父，价值投资的鼻祖。1929年9月，道琼斯指数最高涨到381点，随后开始下跌。10月29日，道琼斯指数暴跌12%，这一天被形容为纽约交易所112年历史上「最糟糕的一天」，这就是历史上最著名的「黑色星期二」。1929年11月，道琼斯指数最低跌到198点，然后企稳反弹。到1930年3月，一度涨到286点，反弹幅度高达43%。于是许多投资者认为最坏的时期已经过去了，股市将要大反转。格雷厄姆也这样认为，于是他开始进场抄底。他抄的都是从价值评估上看非常便宜的好股票，为了取得更大的收益率，他还利用保证金进行杠杆操作。但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌，道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%，而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。至1932年7月，道琼斯指数达到最低点41点，从最高点381点算起，最大跌幅高达89%，而同期格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达78%，这场超级大熊市几乎让他倾家荡产。格雷厄姆后来重新东山再起，写出投资圣经《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》，总结出一个永恒的价值投资基本原则：安全边际。安全第一，赢利第二。达里奥：保持镇定，反向操作和巴菲特一样，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人达里奥也认为，投资者在面对股市下跌时不必惊慌，应该保持冷静。达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功。相反，在市场走跌时，投资者需要进行反向操作，即当你不再感到恐惧时，你可能需要卖出；当你感到恐惧时，你也许需要买进。目前，桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司，管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。在《原则》一书中，达里奥分享了他在市场崩盘中学到的三件事情：第一，不应该离谱地过度自信，并放纵自己被情绪左右。无论我知道多少东西，无论我多么勤奋，我都不应该自信地做出绝对的断言。第二，我再次领会到研究历史的价值；第三，把握市场的时机相当困难。成为一个成功投资者的要决之一，是只对你有高度信心的投资对象进行冒险押注，并对这些对象进行充分的分散投资。明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯稳健的基本面；而轻浮的人跟着感觉走，做出情绪化的反应，对于热门的东西一拥而上，不热的时候又马上放弃。想要拥有很多优势，而又不暴露于不可接受的劣势之下，最稳妥的方式是做出一系列良好的、互不相关的押注，彼此平衡，相互补充。彼得·林奇股市波动的历史规律告诉我们，所有的大跌都会过去，股市永远会涨得更高。历史经验还表明，股市大跌其实是释放风险，创造投资的一次好机会，能以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。但抄底并没有那么简单。与其去不断抄「底」，不断被套，不如等底部出现后再介入不迟。1987年美国股市大崩盘时，很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫，精神崩溃甚至自杀。当时美国证券界超级巨星彼得·林奇管理着100多亿美元的麦哲伦基金，一天之内基金资产净值损失了18%，损失高达20亿美元。林奇和所有开放式基金经理一样，只有一个选择：抛售股票。为了应付非比寻常的巨额赎回，林奇不得不把股票都卖了。过了一年多，彼得·林奇回忆起来仍然感到害怕，「在那一时刻，我真的不能确定，到底是到了世界末日，还是我们即将陷入一场严重的经济大萧条，又或者是事情还没变得那么糟糕，仅仅只是华尔街即将完蛋？」之后彼得林奇继续经历过很多次股市大跌，但仍然取得了非常成功的绩效。第一，不要因恐慌而全部贱价抛出股票。如果你在股市暴跌中绝望地卖出股票，那么你的卖出价格往往会非常之低。1987年10月的行情让人感到惊恐不安，但没必要在这一天或第二天把股票抛出。当年11月份股市开始稳步上扬。到1988年6月，市场已经反弹了400多点，也就是说涨幅超过了23%。第二，对持有的好公司股票要有坚定的勇气。第三，要敢于低价买入好公司股票。暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。索罗斯世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。索罗斯1987年前认为日本股市泡沫巨大，放空日本股票，结果惨败，日本股市牛到了1989年。索罗斯在华尔街评论上鼓吹美国股市会坚挺，日本股市将会崩盘，而结果正好相反：美国股市崩盘了，日本股市却坚挺。1987年9月，索罗斯把几十亿美元的投资从东京转移到了华尔街。然而，首先出现大崩溃的不是日本证券市场，而恰恰是美国的华尔街。1987年10月19日，美国纽约道琼斯平均指数狂跌508点，创当时历史记录。在接下来的一个星期里，纽约股市一路下滑。而日本股市却相对坚挺。索罗斯决定抛售手中所持有的几个大的长期股票份额。其他的交易商捕捉到有关信息后，借机猛烈向下砸被抛售的股票，使期货的现金折扣降了20%。索罗斯在这场华尔街大崩溃中，损失了大约6.5亿到8亿美元。这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%，远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅，索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。索罗斯当年的惨败原因归根结底是投机心理作祟，揣摩市场时机一意孤行的走到了巨额亏损的境地。错误并不可耻，可耻的是错误已经显而易见了还不去修正。承担风险，无可指责。但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。对错都不重要，关键是弄错的时候你损失了多少，判断正确的时候又赚了多少。吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂华尔街投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯曾指出，应该耐心等待好时机，赚了钱获利了结，然后等待下一次机会。如此，才可以战胜别人。市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振，为了避免使资金陷入一潭死水的市场中，投资者应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。买其所值，卖其疯狂。菲利普·费雪菲利普·费雪是现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资家之一。要学会花很多时间来研究，并不急于买入。在一个连续下跌的市场环境中，不要过快地买入那些不熟悉的股票。1929年美国股市处在崩溃前的疯狂牛市中，但费雪发现美国许多产业前景不稳，股市有严重泡沫。1929年8月，他向银行高级主管提交了一份「25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开。」的报告。这可以说是费雪一生中最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜的是费雪「看空做多」。他说：「我免不了被股市的魁力所惑。于是到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，因为它们还没涨到位。」1929年10月美股突然崩溃，费雪也没有幸免于难，在股灾中他损失惨重，费雪亦血本无归。费雪开始明白，决定股票价格的主要因素，不是当年的P/E，而是未来几年的预期P/E。他说，若能培养自己的能力，在合理的上下限内确定某只股票未来几年可能的业绩，就能找到一把钥匙，不但能避免亏损，更能赚得厚利。比尔·米勒「我经常提醒我的分析师们，你们关于公司的信息100%代表了公司的过去，而股票的估值100%取决于未来。」米勒管理的Legg Mason价值型信托基金在1991—2005年这15年当中，连续战胜标准普尔500指数，创造了有史以来最辉煌的基金经理业绩记录，被誉为这个时代最成功的基金经理。然而，在短短一年时间里，这个荣誉就被他亲手毁掉了。在次贷危机中，很多原来非常优秀的公司股票连续大幅下跌，米勒认为投资者反应过度了，于是逆市买入。他本以为那次危机是一次大好的赚钱良机，结果危机却变成大萧条之后最惨重的大熊市。虽然过去15年来他逆向操作的投资决策事后都证明是正确的，但这次却栽得很惨。米勒的股票清单就像是这次危机中的「烈士榜」：AIG、贝尔斯登、房地美、花旗集团、华盛顿互助银行等。2008年，已经58岁的米勒接受采访时说：「从一开始我就没能恰当地估计到这场流动性危机的严重性」。尽管米勒以前经常从市场恐慌中赚钱，但他说，这次自己没想到危机会这么严重，基本面的问题如此之深，以至于曾贵为市场领头羊的优质上市公司居然统统倒下了。「我还是缺乏经验」，米勒说，「每一个买进股票的决定都是错的，真是太可怕了。」经验教训「任何超常发挥的投资组合，在某段时间内能成功，是因为具有价格错位的保险性。市场对这个未来数的估计是错的。我们通过比较市场，对此公司的估值以及我们自己对公司的估值，用多种要素组合的方法来找出价格错位。」股市暴跌，普通投资者怎么办？状况一：手中股票已经跌到成本区建议：在这种状况下，谨慎的投资者应该选择离场，比较激进的也要设置止损价，然后观察一两天再作出决定。不要盲目杀跌，也不要对自己买的股票有情绪，在这个时刻，头脑一定要清醒。状况二：手中股票已经出现亏损建议：这种亏损也需要分类对待，投资者可查看相关资料，如果手中股票属于基金重仓股，那么就不要盲目斩仓，甚至在大盘快速暴跌的情况下，可分批补仓，摊低成本，和基金死磕到底。（如遇熊市下跌过程中或股灾的时候，不适合用这条建议）而如果通过查看资料发现，该股票主力主要是由个别大户操纵的，这样的股票在市场持续不佳的情况下，投资者应该坚决出局，保住现金争取更大的主动性。因为这种股票的主力在大盘真正暴跌时一般不会护盘。另外，还有一些成交比较清淡的个股，没有明显主力介入的迹象，那么一定要设立止损价位，这种股票的性质主要以跟风为主，一旦跌破长期形成的平台，一定要坚决离场。状况三：手中一半是钱一半是股票建议：如果投资者这部分股票处于盈利状态，而市场趋势始终看不明朗，那么应将股票出掉，保留现金。毕竟市场中的机会很多，保留现金才能在市场中有更大的话语权。如果是手中这部分股票已经亏损，那么投资者应该选择市场在大幅下跌之后，并出现走稳趋向的时候，迅速补充自己手中的股票。而如果补仓后，该股当天涨幅较大，可当天做变相T+0，锁定一部分利润。状况四：手中都是钱想进场建议：如果是激进型的投资者，并有一定看盘能力的，可以根据市场情况抢反弹，但应以短线思维为主。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","text":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","html":"Stay calm. . It's important. ."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124093614,"gmtCreate":1624703134738,"gmtModify":1703843899134,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124093614","repostId":"1125653339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039991087,"gmtCreate":1645866831994,"gmtModify":1676534071609,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039991087","repostId":"1168359400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168359400","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1645845222,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168359400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 11:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: Nothing can stop the Fed from releasing 25 basis points of rate hike in March.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168359400","media":"Wind万得","summary":"在高盛看来，无论风险事件如何迷雾重重，美联储既定的方向都不会受到影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve faces an unprecedentedly complex situation. On the one hand, geopolitical risks have pushed the prices of several commodities to historical highs, and inflation has soared visibly.</p><p>On the other hand, soaring commodity prices are hindering the global economic recovery and could lead to a faster and more painful economic downturn. What exactly will the Federal Reserve do?</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that no matter how unclear the risk events may be, the Federal Reserve's established direction will not be affected.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs,<b>The current event risk level has only ranked 4th in the last 40 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/747435ef8ff5ef936e8315c161252782\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Logically speaking, geopolitical risks must be a factor that central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, face when assessing whether to continue monetary tightening.</p><p>It is certain that,<b>Central banks have always been cautious about tightening financial conditions, or at least moderately easing them, in major global geopolitical conflicts.</b>Especially if a global economic recession is one of the potential side effects of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>On Thursday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius analyzed the potential impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine conflict on the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. Jan Hatzius argues that any direct impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy will be limited because the U.S. has weak trade ties with Russia and Ukraine, and energy prices are likely to be affected far less than in Europe.</p><p>However, the surge in oil prices is a huge red flag. According to Goldman Sachs data, a $10 increase in oil prices per barrel would raise U.S. core inflation by 3.5% and headline inflation by 20 basis points, but would only affect GDP growth by less than 0.1%.</p><p>While geopolitical events are certainly negative for inflation and economic growth, the impact of tightening financial conditions is the most unpredictable. Data shows that substantial tightening of U.S. financial conditions has rarely occurred since past geopolitical risk events, although it is difficult to summarize the current situation.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs stated, \"financial conditions are tightening further.\"<b>Increased uncertainty facing businesses will further drag down U.S. economic growth.</b>”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a92a5f14fc15e76a7e7bfabc7a24b12\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So what does this mean for the Federal Reserve?</p><p>Goldman Sachs has acknowledged for the first time that Wall Street's consensus estimate of up to seven (or more) rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2022 may not materialize.<b>Because \"the combination of upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth has a complex impact on monetary policy.\"</b></p><p>Historically, Federal Reserve officials have sometimes tended to postpone major policy decisions until uncertainty surrounding geopolitical risks has subsided.</p><p>For example, on September 11, 2001, or during 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee also reduced Federal Funds rate. Of course, this is not an option now, because interest rates are currently 0% and the inflation rate has reached 7.5%.</p><p>Goldman Sachs reviewed the Federal Reserve's historical attitude towards geopolitical events and focused on analyzing the Fed's current situation. The bank stated, \"The current situation is different from previous times when geopolitical events led the Federal Reserve to delay tightening or easing monetary policy, as inflation risks created a stronger and more urgent reason for the Fed to tighten monetary policy today than in previous times.\"</p><p>Jan Hatzius points out that with some wage price dynamics showing signs of high inflation expectations in the near future,<b>Further increases in commodity prices may be more worrying than usual</b>”。</p><p>Therefore, although Goldman Sachs anticipates geopolitical risks will not prevent the Federal Open Market Committee from steadily rate hike by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting,<b>However, we do believe that geopolitical uncertainty has further reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike in March.</b>”。</p><p>In short, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will not abandon its 25 basis points rate hike in March due to the Russia-Ukraine incident. At least four Federal Reserve officials have recently stated publicly that the uncertainty of geopolitical events is a significant factor in the U.S. economic downturn.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that some Federal Reserve voting committees see the negative impact of geopolitical events on the U.S. economy as a compelling reason not to report a 50 basis point rate hike in March.</p><p>For now, the market seems to agree with Goldman Sachs' view. Earlier this month, the probability of the Fed's March rate hike reaching 50 basis points reached nearly 100%, but has now dropped to 20%.</p><p>Looking at the whole year, traders remain confident.<b>The Federal Reserve will somehow rate hike at least six times in 2022 without plunging the economy into recession.</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: Nothing can stop the Fed from releasing 25 basis points of rate hike in March.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: Nothing can stop the Fed from releasing 25 basis points of rate hike in March.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 11:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve faces an unprecedentedly complex situation. On the one hand, geopolitical risks have pushed the prices of several commodities to historical highs, and inflation has soared visibly.</p><p>On the other hand, soaring commodity prices are hindering the global economic recovery and could lead to a faster and more painful economic downturn. What exactly will the Federal Reserve do?</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that no matter how unclear the risk events may be, the Federal Reserve's established direction will not be affected.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs,<b>The current event risk level has only ranked 4th in the last 40 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/747435ef8ff5ef936e8315c161252782\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Logically speaking, geopolitical risks must be a factor that central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, face when assessing whether to continue monetary tightening.</p><p>It is certain that,<b>Central banks have always been cautious about tightening financial conditions, or at least moderately easing them, in major global geopolitical conflicts.</b>Especially if a global economic recession is one of the potential side effects of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>On Thursday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius analyzed the potential impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine conflict on the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. Jan Hatzius argues that any direct impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy will be limited because the U.S. has weak trade ties with Russia and Ukraine, and energy prices are likely to be affected far less than in Europe.</p><p>However, the surge in oil prices is a huge red flag. According to Goldman Sachs data, a $10 increase in oil prices per barrel would raise U.S. core inflation by 3.5% and headline inflation by 20 basis points, but would only affect GDP growth by less than 0.1%.</p><p>While geopolitical events are certainly negative for inflation and economic growth, the impact of tightening financial conditions is the most unpredictable. Data shows that substantial tightening of U.S. financial conditions has rarely occurred since past geopolitical risk events, although it is difficult to summarize the current situation.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs stated, \"financial conditions are tightening further.\"<b>Increased uncertainty facing businesses will further drag down U.S. economic growth.</b>”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a92a5f14fc15e76a7e7bfabc7a24b12\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So what does this mean for the Federal Reserve?</p><p>Goldman Sachs has acknowledged for the first time that Wall Street's consensus estimate of up to seven (or more) rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2022 may not materialize.<b>Because \"the combination of upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth has a complex impact on monetary policy.\"</b></p><p>Historically, Federal Reserve officials have sometimes tended to postpone major policy decisions until uncertainty surrounding geopolitical risks has subsided.</p><p>For example, on September 11, 2001, or during 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee also reduced Federal Funds rate. Of course, this is not an option now, because interest rates are currently 0% and the inflation rate has reached 7.5%.</p><p>Goldman Sachs reviewed the Federal Reserve's historical attitude towards geopolitical events and focused on analyzing the Fed's current situation. The bank stated, \"The current situation is different from previous times when geopolitical events led the Federal Reserve to delay tightening or easing monetary policy, as inflation risks created a stronger and more urgent reason for the Fed to tighten monetary policy today than in previous times.\"</p><p>Jan Hatzius points out that with some wage price dynamics showing signs of high inflation expectations in the near future,<b>Further increases in commodity prices may be more worrying than usual</b>”。</p><p>Therefore, although Goldman Sachs anticipates geopolitical risks will not prevent the Federal Open Market Committee from steadily rate hike by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting,<b>However, we do believe that geopolitical uncertainty has further reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike in March.</b>”。</p><p>In short, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will not abandon its 25 basis points rate hike in March due to the Russia-Ukraine incident. At least four Federal Reserve officials have recently stated publicly that the uncertainty of geopolitical events is a significant factor in the U.S. economic downturn.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that some Federal Reserve voting committees see the negative impact of geopolitical events on the U.S. economy as a compelling reason not to report a 50 basis point rate hike in March.</p><p>For now, the market seems to agree with Goldman Sachs' view. Earlier this month, the probability of the Fed's March rate hike reaching 50 basis points reached nearly 100%, but has now dropped to 20%.</p><p>Looking at the whole year, traders remain confident.<b>The Federal Reserve will somehow rate hike at least six times in 2022 without plunging the economy into recession.</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168359400","content_text":"美联储面临的情况前所未有的复杂，一方面地缘政治风险将数种大宗商品价格推升至历史高位，通胀水平肉眼可见的飙升了。另一方面，商品价格大涨阻碍全球经济复苏，可能导致更快、更痛苦的经济下滑。美联储究竟会怎么行动？在高盛看来，无论风险事件如何迷雾重重，美联储既定的方向都不会受到影响。据高盛估算，当前的事件风险水平，在最近40年里只能排到第4位。按常理推断，地缘政治风险，必定是各国央行，尤其是美联储在评估是否继续实施货币紧缩时所面临的考虑因素。可以肯定的是，各国央行总是在重大全球地缘政治冲突中，对将金融状况收紧持谨慎态度，或者至少适度放松，尤其是如果全球经济衰退是俄乌全面冲突的潜在副作用之一。本周四，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius 分析了潜在的俄乌冲突对美国经济和美联储政策的潜在影响。Jan Hatzius 认为，这场冲突对美国经济的任何直接影响都是有限的，因为美国与俄罗斯和乌克兰的贸易联系薄弱，能源价格受影响的程度可能远低于欧洲。然而，油价飙升是一个巨大的危险信号。根据高盛的数据，石油价格每桶上涨10美元，将使美国核心通胀率提高3.5%，总体通胀率提高20bp，但只影响GDP增长率下降不到0.1%。虽然地缘政治事件对通胀和经济增长肯定是负面的，但金融环境紧缩带来的影响是最不可预测的。数据显示，过去的地缘政治风险事件之后，美国金融状况很少出现有实质性的紧缩，尽管很难概括到目前的情况。正如高盛所言，“金融状况进一步收紧，企业面临的不确定性增加，将进一步拖累美国经济增长”。那这对美联储又意味着什么呢？高盛首次承认，华尔街对美联储在2022年高达7次（或更多）加息的普遍估计可能不会实现，因为“通胀上行风险和增长下行风险的组合，对货币政策的影响是复杂的“。从历史上看，美联储官员有时倾向于推迟重大政策决策，直到围绕地缘政治风险的不确定性减弱。例如2001年9月11日或2018年期间，联邦公开市场委员会还降低了联邦基金利率。当然，这不是现在的一个选项，因为现在的利率为0%，通货膨胀率已经达到7.5%。回顾了历史上美联储对待地缘政治事件的态度，高盛重点分析了美联储现在的处境。该行称，“当前的情况与过去几次不同，当时地缘政治事件导致美联储推迟收紧或进行宽松的货币政策，因为通胀风险为美联储今天收紧货币政策创造了比过去几次更强烈、更紧迫的理由”。Jan Hatzius 指出，随着一些工资价格动态显示，近期通胀预期已经很高的迹象，“大宗商品价格的进一步上涨可能比平常更令人担忧”。因此，尽管高盛预计地缘政治风险，不会阻止联邦公开市场委员会在即将召开的会议上稳步加息25bp，“但我们确实认为地缘政治的不确定性进一步降低了3月份加息50个基点的可能性”。简而言之，高盛认为，美联储不会因为俄乌事件而放弃在3月份加息25bp。美联储至少有4位官员近期公开讲话表示，地缘政治事件的不确定性是美国经济下行的重要因素。高盛认为，一些美联储票委会将地缘政治事件对美国经济的负面影响视为一个令人信服的理由，不在3月份加息50bp。目前，市场似乎同意高盛的看法。在本月早些时候，美联储3月加息50bp的可能性达到近100%后，目前已经降至20%。从全年来看，交易员仍有信心，美联储将以某种方式在2022年至少6次加息，并且不会让经济陷入衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"25bp is better than 50bp！","text":"25bp is better than 50bp！","html":"25bp is better than 50bp！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375852643,"gmtCreate":1619326441682,"gmtModify":1704722498292,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375852643","repostId":"1180924199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Not good. . .","text":"Not good. . .","html":"Not good. . ."},{"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"content":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","text":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","html":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105832391,"gmtCreate":1620287805713,"gmtModify":1704341363747,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105832391","repostId":"1180972135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","text":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","html":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132361379,"gmtCreate":1622072693791,"gmtModify":1704178783783,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132361379","repostId":"1116624470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116624470","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622072210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116624470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 07:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snowflake's revenue surged beyond expectations, but growth is expected to slow this quarter.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116624470","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间5月26日周三美股盘后，云计算独角兽Snowflake自去年9月上市以来第二次公布季度财报。去年吸引巴菲特50多年来首度打新的Snowflake今年保持了收入的高增长，并且上调了全财年的收入指","content":"<p>After the US stock market closed on Wednesday, May 26, Eastern Time, cloud computing unicorns...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>This is the second quarterly financial report released since its listing last September. Snowflake, which attracted Buffett's first IPO in over 50 years last year, has maintained high revenue growth this year and raised its full-year revenue guidance.</p><p>Financial reports show that in the first fiscal quarter of 2022, ending April 30, operating revenue continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of over 100%. The performance of key financial indicators and user indicators is as follows:</p><p><ul><li>First-quarter revenue was $228.9 million, up 110% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $213.4 million. Revenue in the previous fiscal quarter, the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, increased by 119% year-over-year.</li><li>Product revenue for the quarter was $213.8 million, up 110% year-over-year, compared to analysts' expectations of $198 million.</li><li>The company reported a loss of $0.70 per share for the quarter, in line with analysts' expectations; The company reported a net loss of $203.2 million for the quarter, 2.17 times the $93.6 million loss in the same period last fiscal year.</li><li>Adjusted operating profit for the quarter was $35.8 million, down 16% year-over-year and down 24% in the previous fiscal quarter.</li><li>Residual performance value (RPO), a future revenue indicator representing contractually due but unrecognized revenue, was $1.4 billion at the end of the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 206%.</li><li>The total number of clients at the end of the quarter was 4,532, higher than analysts' expectations of 4,500. Among them, 187 companies were listed in the Fortune 500 last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%. A total of 104 major clients contributed more than US$1 million in product revenue in the past 12 months, representing a year-on-year increase of 117%.</li><li>The customer retention metric, net revenue retention rate, rose to 168% at the end of the quarter from 162% in the previous fiscal quarter, setting a new record.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6d0028b9b8bb8e954d7f74e0be3299\" tg-width=\"4000\" tg-height=\"2250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding earnings guidance, Snowflake expects product revenue for the second fiscal quarter to be approximately $235 million to $240 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 88% to 92%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $233.4 million. Product revenue is expected to be between $1.02 billion and $1.04 billion for the full year of fiscal year 2022, ending January 31 next year, representing an increase of 84% to 87% compared to fiscal year 2021, and a 1.4%-2% increase from the company's previous forecast range of $1 billion to $1.02 billion.</p><p>Based on the above guidance, Snowflake's product revenue is expected to grow by as much as 92% this quarter, a slowdown compared to the previous two quarters. Moreover, looking at the full-year revenue growth rate, the growth rate in the next quarter will not exceed 100%, which may slow further.</p><p>However, after the earnings report was released, Snowflake's stock price plummeted in after-hours trading on the US stock market, with a drop of more than 8% at one point. Before the earnings report was released, as of Wednesday's close, Snowflake had fallen by about 16% year-to-date, significantly less than the broader market, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 12% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77505e68861db5e50a03811031d1178\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake's revenue surged beyond expectations, but growth is expected to slow this quarter.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake's revenue surged beyond expectations, but growth is expected to slow this quarter.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 07:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the US stock market closed on Wednesday, May 26, Eastern Time, cloud computing unicorns...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>This is the second quarterly financial report released since its listing last September. Snowflake, which attracted Buffett's first IPO in over 50 years last year, has maintained high revenue growth this year and raised its full-year revenue guidance.</p><p>Financial reports show that in the first fiscal quarter of 2022, ending April 30, operating revenue continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of over 100%. The performance of key financial indicators and user indicators is as follows:</p><p><ul><li>First-quarter revenue was $228.9 million, up 110% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $213.4 million. Revenue in the previous fiscal quarter, the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, increased by 119% year-over-year.</li><li>Product revenue for the quarter was $213.8 million, up 110% year-over-year, compared to analysts' expectations of $198 million.</li><li>The company reported a loss of $0.70 per share for the quarter, in line with analysts' expectations; The company reported a net loss of $203.2 million for the quarter, 2.17 times the $93.6 million loss in the same period last fiscal year.</li><li>Adjusted operating profit for the quarter was $35.8 million, down 16% year-over-year and down 24% in the previous fiscal quarter.</li><li>Residual performance value (RPO), a future revenue indicator representing contractually due but unrecognized revenue, was $1.4 billion at the end of the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 206%.</li><li>The total number of clients at the end of the quarter was 4,532, higher than analysts' expectations of 4,500. Among them, 187 companies were listed in the Fortune 500 last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%. A total of 104 major clients contributed more than US$1 million in product revenue in the past 12 months, representing a year-on-year increase of 117%.</li><li>The customer retention metric, net revenue retention rate, rose to 168% at the end of the quarter from 162% in the previous fiscal quarter, setting a new record.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6d0028b9b8bb8e954d7f74e0be3299\" tg-width=\"4000\" tg-height=\"2250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding earnings guidance, Snowflake expects product revenue for the second fiscal quarter to be approximately $235 million to $240 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 88% to 92%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $233.4 million. Product revenue is expected to be between $1.02 billion and $1.04 billion for the full year of fiscal year 2022, ending January 31 next year, representing an increase of 84% to 87% compared to fiscal year 2021, and a 1.4%-2% increase from the company's previous forecast range of $1 billion to $1.02 billion.</p><p>Based on the above guidance, Snowflake's product revenue is expected to grow by as much as 92% this quarter, a slowdown compared to the previous two quarters. Moreover, looking at the full-year revenue growth rate, the growth rate in the next quarter will not exceed 100%, which may slow further.</p><p>However, after the earnings report was released, Snowflake's stock price plummeted in after-hours trading on the US stock market, with a drop of more than 8% at one point. Before the earnings report was released, as of Wednesday's close, Snowflake had fallen by about 16% year-to-date, significantly less than the broader market, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 12% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77505e68861db5e50a03811031d1178\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f535b280c5fc57a2528c0f3477d416","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116624470","content_text":"美东时间5月26日周三美股盘后，云计算独角兽Snowflake自去年9月上市以来第二次公布季度财报。去年吸引巴菲特50多年来首度打新的Snowflake今年保持了收入的高增长，并且上调了全财年的收入指引。财报显示，截至4月30日的2022财年第一财季，营业收入继续保持100%以上的同比增速。主要财务指标和用户指标的表现如下：第一财季营业收入为2.289亿美元，同比增长110%，高于分析师预期的2.134亿美元，上一财季、即2021财年第四财季营收同比增119%。当季产品营收2.138亿美元，同比也增长110%，分析师预期1.980亿美元。当季每股亏损0.70美元，持平分析师预期；当季净亏损2.032亿美元，是上财年同期亏损额9360万美元的2.17倍。当季调整后营业利润3580万美元，同比下降16%，上一财季下滑24%。代表根据合约约定应得但尚未确认收入的未来营收指标——剩余履约价值（RPO）季末为14亿美元，同比增长206%。季末客户总数4532家，高于分析师预期的4500，其中去年财富500强上榜企业187家，同比增长30%；最近12个月内贡献产品收入超过100万美元的大客户共104家，同比增长117%。客户留存指标净收入留存率季末从上一财季的162%升至168%，再创新高。在业绩指引方面，Snowflake预计，第二财季产品营收约为2.35亿到2.40亿美元，相当于同比增长88%到92%，高于分析师预期的2.334亿美元；预计在截至明年1月31日的2022财年全年，产品营收为10.2亿到10.4亿美元，较2021财年增长84%到87%，较该公司之前的预计区间10亿到10.2亿美元上调1.4%-2%。按照以上指引，本季度Snowflake的产品营收最快将增长92%，较前两个季度有所放缓，而且从全年营收增速看，下个季度的增速也不会超过100%，可能进一步放缓。但财报公布后，Snowflake股价在美股盘后跳水，跌幅一度超过8%。在财报公布前，截至本周三收盘，Snowflake今年以来累跌约16%，明显不及大盘，标普500同期涨近12%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","text":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","html":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}