#Reward: Tech Stocks — Buy the Dip or Run for the Exit? My answer: I would buy the dip selectively—but I would not blindly chase every AI stock. This does not necessarily mean that the AI story is ending. Now the market has moved from asking, “Is AI real?” to asking, “Which companies can convert AI spending into sustainable revenue, profit and cash flow?” AI investment is finally producing measurable returns The latest results from the major cloud companies provide strong evidence that AI capital expenditure is beginning to generate real commercial returns. Microsoft reported quarterly Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27% year on year, while Azure and other cloud-services revenue increased 43%. More importantly, its commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678

From AI capex to AI revenue—the monetisation cycle is becoming clearer. 🔄 1️⃣ Hardware: NVIDIA supplies the GPUs and computing infrastructure needed to build AI capacity. Its latest results showed data-centre revenue reaching US$89 billion, up 117% year-on-year—evidence that infrastructure demand remains exceptionally strong. 2️⃣ Cloud: Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle install these chips in data centres, then monetise them by renting AI computing power to developers and enterprises. 3️⃣ Software: Companies such as Salesforce use that cloud capacity to embed AI into real business workflows. Customers pay through subscriptions, AI add-ons and usage-based fees—turning computing power into recurring software revenue. 4️⃣ Security: As more applications and data move into AI environments, d

Jackson Hole 2026: Three Warsh Scenarios—and What They Mean for AI Stocks After Nvidia’s strong earnings reinforced confidence in AI demand, the market’s attention now shifts from corporate earnings to monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote could determine whether strong AI investment is viewed as: ✅ A productivity engine that allows faster, less inflationary growth or ⚠️ An investment boom that keeps demand and inflation too strong This distinction matters because technology companies face two opposing forces: * Strong AI capex supports semiconductor, cloud and software revenue. * Higher interest rates reduce technology valuations and increase financing costs. Here are my best, base and worst-case scenarios for the speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT MA

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

3 September 2026 U.S. equities rebounded, led by technology stocks, as weak ADP employment data eased some interest-rate pressure. However, escalating U.S.–Iran tensions, elevated oil prices and Broadcom’s volatile after-hours reaction continued to limit risk appetite. S&P 500 rose 0.46% to 7,666.63 Dow Jones rose 0.56% to 53,061.89 Nasdaq rose 0.45% to 26,217.83 Reuters U.S. 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.39% U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.79% U.S. Treasury ⸻ News 1) U.S. and Iran engage in their largest exchange of attacks in months, raising risks around the Strait of Hormuz * The U.S. launched a new round of strikes against Iran’s southern coast, targeting air-defence and radar systems, maritime assets, communication facilities and mine-laying capabilities.

2 September 2026 Renewed US-Iran hostilities and attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher. Rising inflation and rate-hike concerns pushed Treasury yields up and dragged US equities lower for a third consecutive session. S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47 Dow Jones fell 0.79% to 52,766.88 Nasdaq fell 1.03% to 26,099.77 US 2-year Treasury yield rose approximately 5 basis points to around 4.39% US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 5 basis points to around 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025 (AP, Reuters) ⸻ News 1) US launches fresh strikes on Iran as tanker attacks drive oil and inflation risks higher * The US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. * President Trump warned that Iran would face

Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Record Earnings—So Why Did Memory Stocks Fall Together? Recently, $SNDK$，$WDC$，$MU$，$SKHY$，$STX$ all experienced sharp pullbacks. Strictly speaking, Micron, SK hynix, and Sandisk are producers of DRAM, HBM, or NAND memory chips, while Western Digital and Seagate mainly focus on enterprise hard disk drives. However, under the broader AI data-center investment theme, the market often treats all five companies as part of the same “AI storage trade.” This selloff does not mean that demand for AI storage has suddenly disappeared. Instead, it appears to be a broad repricing of the sector as elevated valuations, high expectations, and excessive leverage cooled simultaneously. 1. Macro Environment: Lower Rate Pressure, but Capital Rotated Out of Memory Stocks U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedl

20 Aug 2026 — US Market Daily US stocks ended a three-day losing streak as the Treasury’s surprise move to expand long-term bond buybacks helped push longer-dated yields lower. Moderna’s successful Phase 3 cancer vaccine trial also boosted healthcare stocks. However, hawkish Fed minutes and continued US-Iran tensions kept risk appetite in check. S&P 500: +0.21% to 7,707.98 Dow Jones: +0.22% to 53,463.05 Nasdaq: +0.16% to 26,331.09 US 2Y Treasury: +1 bp to ~4.18% US 10Y Treasury: -6 bps to ~4.65% ⸻ 1. Iran tensions remain high, but Trump leaves the door open for talks * Trump said the US may resume negotiations with Iran “at some point,” reversing his tougher stance just a day earlier. * Washington is still waiting for clearer signs that Iran is willing to compromise before formally res