From AI capex to AI revenue—the monetisation cycle is becoming clearer. 🔄 1️⃣ Hardware: NVIDIA supplies the GPUs and computing infrastructure needed to build AI capacity. Its latest results showed data-centre revenue reaching US$89 billion, up 117% year-on-year—evidence that infrastructure demand remains exceptionally strong. 2️⃣ Cloud: Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle install these chips in data centres, then monetise them by renting AI computing power to developers and enterprises. 3️⃣ Software: Companies such as Salesforce use that cloud capacity to embed AI into real business workflows. Customers pay through subscriptions, AI add-ons and usage-based fees—turning computing power into recurring software revenue. 4️⃣ Security: As more applications and data move into AI environments, d

#Reward: Tech Stocks — Buy the Dip or Run for the Exit? My answer: I would buy the dip selectively—but I would not blindly chase every AI stock. This does not necessarily mean that the AI story is ending. Now the market has moved from asking, “Is AI real?” to asking, “Which companies can convert AI spending into sustainable revenue, profit and cash flow?” AI investment is finally producing measurable returns The latest results from the major cloud companies provide strong evidence that AI capital expenditure is beginning to generate real commercial returns. Microsoft reported quarterly Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27% year on year, while Azure and other cloud-services revenue increased 43%. More importantly, its commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678

Jackson Hole 2026: Three Warsh Scenarios—and What They Mean for AI Stocks After Nvidia’s strong earnings reinforced confidence in AI demand, the market’s attention now shifts from corporate earnings to monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote could determine whether strong AI investment is viewed as: ✅ A productivity engine that allows faster, less inflationary growth or ⚠️ An investment boom that keeps demand and inflation too strong This distinction matters because technology companies face two opposing forces: * Strong AI capex supports semiconductor, cloud and software revenue. * Higher interest rates reduce technology valuations and increase financing costs. Here are my best, base and worst-case scenarios for the speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT MA

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

1 September 2026 Renewed US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields higher, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance strengthened expectations of a September rate hike, sending all three major US indices lower—although they still ended August with monthly gains. S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14 Dow Jones fell 0.70% to 53,185.90 Nasdaq fell 0.12% to 26,370.89 US 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.348% US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 3.6 basis points to 4.757% Market data: Reuters⁠ | Treasury data: WSJ⁠ ⸻ News 1) US-Iran hostilities resume, raising risks around the Strait of Hormuz * The US struck Iranian missile-launch facilities on Larak Island, marking the first direct military exchange between the two sides in a month. * Iran retaliated

📅 SEPTEMBER 2026 MARKET WATCHLIST “Sell in May and buy in September” does not mean investors should automatically buy on 1 September. Historically, September has been one of the market’s more volatile and weaker months. However, that volatility may also create better entry opportunities ahead of the traditionally stronger October–April period. 🔴 KEY MACRO DATES • 4 Sep: U.S. Jobs Report • 10 Sep: Producer Price Index • 11 Sep: Consumer Price Index • 16 Sep: Retail Sales + FOMC decision • 30 Sep: PCE inflation + Q2 GDP These events will shape inflation expectations, Treasury yields, Fed policy and equity valuations. 📊 EARNINGS CATALYSTS • 2 Sep: Broadcom • 3 Sep: Zscaler + Lululemon • 8–14 Sep: Oracle — TBC • 10 Sep: Adobe — TBC • 24 Sep: Costco • 30 Sep: Micron Broadcom and Micron will tes

Warsh’s Jackson Hole Verdict: Hawkish on Rates, Bullish on AI Growth Warsh’s speech was hawkish on interest rates, but constructive on economic growth and AI demand. Relative to my earlier best/base/worst-case framework, the outcome landed between the base and worst cases—closer to worst for rates, but more constructive for AI growth. 🔴 Inflation: Hawkish 🔴 Labour: Strong enough to tolerate tighter policy 🔴 Financial conditions: Not restrictive 🟢 Economic growth: Resilient 🟢 AI investment: Structurally strong 🟡 AI stocks: Positive fundamentals, valuation-sensitive Overall hawkish score: 7/10 However, Warsh did not promise a September rate hike. He concluded that he was committed to a policy discipline, “not to a decision.” This was a hawkish bias—not an explicit rate-hike announcement. ⸻ 1

Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Record Earnings—So Why Did Memory Stocks Fall Together? Recently, $SNDK$，$WDC$，$MU$，$SKHY$，$STX$ all experienced sharp pullbacks. Strictly speaking, Micron, SK hynix, and Sandisk are producers of DRAM, HBM, or NAND memory chips, while Western Digital and Seagate mainly focus on enterprise hard disk drives. However, under the broader AI data-center investment theme, the market often treats all five companies as part of the same “AI storage trade.” This selloff does not mean that demand for AI storage has suddenly disappeared. Instead, it appears to be a broad repricing of the sector as elevated valuations, high expectations, and excessive leverage cooled simultaneously. 1. Macro Environment: Lower Rate Pressure, but Capital Rotated Out of Memory Stocks U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedl