The SP500 dropped by over 2% along side other main indexes despite multiple big banks earnings beat on Friday pre market. This is because of 1 main reason and a few sub reasons. It started on 13/10 thursday, CPI m/m came out as a beat to the upside and the market dropped by around 2%. Then the FED minute came out and the market narated it as a 'good' news which surged the SP500 by around 4%, although many disagrees with this narative. In my opinion, the market naration of 'good' news from FED minutes was just to give an opportunity for big money to exit which I will back this point up at the end of this writing with the most recent VIX movement. (13/10 made the market euphoric). Then on 14/10 which is Friday, UoM inflation expectation came out and it was at 5.1% which is a relatively big i

Main indexes like the ‌$S&P 500(.SPX)$  ‌,‌$DJIA(.DJI)$  ‌,‌$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  ‌‌were up around 0.4% in Monday's trading hour. Despite this, the bond markets were down, with the treasuries above 3 years consistantly in the red. ( When bond prices fall, bond yield rise ). The picture below (Data from home.treasury.gov) illustrates that majority of the bonds are in the red with the anomaly being 4 months, 1 year and 3 year treasury bond.  (the change: part i added myself) This is quite unusual because both stock prices and bond prices should move in tandem as they are both correlated with how the economy is performing, and they are both forward lookin

The SPY is up 0.82% in premarket.The main reason for it is because :- Jerome Powell speech yesterday- RBA, BOC, ECB hiked rate according to analyst expectations- Consumer credit was a big missI made a video about this : Help like it :)https://youtu.be/aog8Fheuh5YJerome Powell speech yesterday‌- Jerome Powell speech is priced in as a good news because the market rallied during the later half of Powell's conversation with Cato Institution's manager. The reason i can think of is that the the market thinks Powell have became more 'dovish' as his tone is alot less 'hawkish' when comparing to his tone during Jackson Hole. But it is worth to note that during Jackson Hole, he was speaking on a stage and addressing the world while this time, he is on a zoom call with Cata Institution and having a c

Jackson Hole Symposium event is coming up this weekend and FED chair Powell is expected to be hawkish according to many analyst and fund managers. The reason for this stance include Powell stating that inflation was transitory during last year's sympoium and have to rectifiy his mistake by providing solutions, inflation is now still at 8.5% which is alot higher than the FED's target of 2% etc.Why is the market up ?‌I believe there are many reasons on why the market is up. But in this post i will discuss 2 reasons. First is the media's narrative whereby analyst believes that Powell is going to give a timeline for pivot in the future hence the market is currently pricing in good news + student loan forgiveness was passed which can help boost economy spending as lesser mon

‌The main fear factors - FED raise rates - Future earnings recession- Recession - War ‌General market consensus now :- FED rate hike predicted to end by summer 2023 ( May/June )      - So the market is pricing it in already. ( Stock market is forward looking )             - Pricing in by 2023 summer, stock price will be higher than now.- Big money leaving - Bank of America say + VIX is lower than its suppose to be at      - VIX - not as high as its suppose to be due to main fear factors : War, FED rate hike, recession, future earnings recession + usual hedging contracts.             - Big money have sold alot, so need lesser option contr