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2021-06-11
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for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188150575","repostId":"1185815929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185815929","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623381455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185815929?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐","content":"<blockquote>\n 美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">潘多拉</a>魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。</p>\n<p>然而,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!</p>\n<p>在她看来,<b>随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服,未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。</b></p>\n<p>美国银行表示,在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际,市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险,反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失,届时失业福利将减少,儿童保育更好找,对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖,需求从商品转向服务,瓶颈就将逐渐消失;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退,劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速,贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨,而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升,涨势也将消退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 5、从定义出发,价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高,因为产出缺口仍旧存在,而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事,因为这有助于缩小收入差距;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 7、近年来,薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝,而非哀叹工资上涨;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 8、从定义出发,薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长,因为失业率仍旧太高,无法产生持续的薪资压力;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升,但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应;当这两大价格走低时,通胀预期也会消退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 10、从历史上看,只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后,通胀预期才会走高;最近的上涨一定是侥幸;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升,如果真的存在问题,债市会告诉我们一切;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查,对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为,长期来看,通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国银行还指出,最重要的一点在于,<b>市场相信“不要担心通胀过高,因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息,以此来冷却通胀”。</b></p>\n<p>对此,金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道:美联储行得很,不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀,还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。</p>\n<p>不过值得注意的是,市场的上述观点,多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么,美国银行在担心什么?</p>\n<p>Meyer认为,若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”,这并不合情理。最关键的地方是,<b>这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月,并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。</b></p>\n<p>她还称,考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明,他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高,上述可能性就变得非常之大。</p>\n<p>对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法,美国银行也并不认同:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近几十年来,我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n <b>但历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>此外,美联储已经承诺,加息将比常态情况下来得更晚,且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。</p>\n<p>这也就意味着,美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难,但如果有意外发生,加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早,那么对于市场而言,一切就已经太晚了。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-11 11:17 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。\n然而,美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!\n在她看来,随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。\n然而,美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!\n在她看来,随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服,未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示,在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际,市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险,反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口:\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失,届时失业福利将减少,儿童保育更好找,对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退;\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖,需求从商品转向服务,瓶颈就将逐渐消失;\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退,劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速,贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解;\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨,而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升,涨势也将消退;\n\n\n 5、从定义出发,价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高,因为产出缺口仍旧存在,而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失;\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事,因为这有助于缩小收入差距;\n\n\n 7、近年来,薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝,而非哀叹工资上涨;\n\n\n 8、从定义出发,薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长,因为失业率仍旧太高,无法产生持续的薪资压力;\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升,但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应;当这两大价格走低时,通胀预期也会消退;\n\n\n 10、从历史上看,只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后,通胀预期才会走高;最近的上涨一定是侥幸;\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升,如果真的存在问题,债市会告诉我们一切;\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查,对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为,长期来看,通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出,最重要的一点在于,市场相信“不要担心通胀过高,因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息,以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此,金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道:美联储行得很,不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀,还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是,市场的上述观点,多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么,美国银行在担心什么?\nMeyer认为,若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”,这并不合情理。最关键的地方是,这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月,并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称,考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明,他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高,上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法,美国银行也并不认同:\n\n 近几十年来,我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外,美联储已经承诺,加息将比常态情况下来得更晚,且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着,美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难,但如果有意外发生,加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早,那么对于市场而言,一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188150575,"gmtCreate":1623425192697,"gmtModify":1704203460629,"author":{"id":"3580697639970256","authorId":"3580697639970256","name":"Kokmun0087","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c62944e7911c3cf63a88be9bf5d47f3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580697639970256","authorIdStr":"3580697639970256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for 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