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2021-06-11

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美银“打脸”美联储：哪有什么“暂时性”通胀？

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for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188150575","repostId":"1185815929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185815929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623381455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185815929?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银“打脸”美联储：哪有什么“暂时性”通胀？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐","content":"<blockquote>\n 美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">潘多拉</a>魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。</p>\n<p>然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！</p>\n<p>在她看来，<b>随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。</b></p>\n<p>美国银行表示，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险，反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，<b>市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。</b></p>\n<p>对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。</p>\n<p>不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？</p>\n<p>Meyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，<b>这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。</b></p>\n<p>她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。</p>\n<p>对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n <b>但历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>此外，美联储已经承诺，加息将比常态情况下来得更晚，且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。</p>\n<p>这也就意味着，美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难，但如果有意外发生，加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早，那么对于市场而言，一切就已经太晚了。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银“打脸”美联储：哪有什么“暂时性”通胀？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银“打脸”美联储：哪有什么“暂时性”通胀？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-11 11:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。\n然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！\n在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。\n然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！\n在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险，反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口：\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n\n\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n\n\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n\n\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n\n\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？\nMeyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：\n\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外，美联储已经承诺，加息将比常态情况下来得更晚，且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着，美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难，但如果有意外发生，加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早，那么对于市场而言，一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188150575,"gmtCreate":1623425192697,"gmtModify":1704203460629,"author":{"id":"3580697639970256","authorId":"3580697639970256","name":"Kokmun0087","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c62944e7911c3cf63a88be9bf5d47f3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580697639970256","authorIdStr":"3580697639970256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for 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