CME group special commentator Kou JianIn 2023, WTI crude oil price fluctuated in a zigzag shape for a whole year between US $63 and US $95 under the influence of various factors. Before we bid farewell to 2023 and usher in 2024, what factors should we pay special attention to in crude oil trading?1. The relationship between supply and demand, especially the domestic demand for crude oil and the import volume.Domestic demand for crude oil has been in a slow downward trend after setting an all-time high of 10,000,000 barrels a day in 2021 (Figure 1). Is the rapid development of renewable new energy in China in recent years the real end of the demand for crude oil? At present, we can't draw a conclusion too early, so paying close attention to the domestic crude oil import volume in 2024 is an

In the past two weeks, some changes in the macro world have exerted a strong influence on the price changes of crude oil market. It is embodied in two things. First, the Federal Reserve issued a strong hawkish police; Second, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) declared bankruptcy.On March 6th, the Federal Reserve said that it underestimated the intractability of inflation, and the crude oil market turned around and fell, changing the upward direction of prices brought about by the hope of domestic economic recovery. The next day, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the largest venture capital bank in the United States, experienced a run on the market, and the crude oil market continued to fall. On March 10th, the federal government took over Silicon Valley Bank, and the downward trend of crude oil price tem

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th

I have mentioned before  in early May this year, that there was a wave of selling in American stocks, and the market brought American stocks to a very important technical bottom. Looking back now, the US stock market has built a long-term technical bottom in June and July (see the chart below).The US stock market has hit bottom?In my opinion, the US stock market has bottomed out for the following reasons:First, the price of US crude oil, which has the greatest impact on inflation, has dropped from the highest point of $130 this year in February to about $90 now.Second, the cracking price difference of refined oil products has also dropped from the highest point of $60 in spring to less than $40 now. This is important for lowering gas prices at gas stations, and it also

On December 9th, the lowest trading price of the main contract of crude oil (WTI) futures owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange was US $70.08, which was the biggest decline of US crude oil in a week since April this year and the lowest price since the high price of US $130 was created in February this year.Since February this year, after the US crude oil price exceeded US $130, I have repeatedly stressed that US $130 is the highest price of US crude oil this year. Since then, the US crude oil price will slowly drop to around US $65.Medium and long-term investors should pay attention to: diesel price and premium statusThe US crude oil price on December 9th is very close to the personal crude oil buying price target. Now, with a tentative small investment in crude oil, medium and long-term in

CME group special commentator Kou JianA new round of military conflict broke out between Israel and Palestine on October 7, local time, which gave a short-term boost to crude oil prices, which was quite different from the previous trend in less than 10 days from September 27 to October 6. At that time, the price of American oil (WTI) dropped sharply from the highest point of 95 US dollars this year to 81 US dollars, which shocked the world.What caused the sharp drop in crude oil prices this time, and what will happen to crude oil prices next?On September 27th, the price of US crude oil reached US $95, and the inflation in the United States remained high. The Federal Reserve went all out to raise interest rates, and claimed that the whole rate hike operation would not be completed until the

Looking at the trend of American natural gas market this year, it can start from 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused the imbalance between global natural gas supply and demand, which caused the natural gas price to soar, and then returned to normal in 2023. This process is expected to continue in 2024 and continue to dominate the natural gas price movement.So what problems should we pay attention to in the process of trading natural gas in 2024?1. Macroclimate and microclimate: Macroclimate is what we usually call the global medium and long-term climate pattern, such as the obvious El Ni ñ o climate pattern last year. Microclimate is the occasional sudden change of climate in the macro climate environment, such as the temporary cold in the United States after the unpr

Kou Jian, special commentator of Zhishang Institute Starting from Black Friday after Thanksgiving on November 25th, the market took the newly discovered Novel Coronavirus variant Omicron as the trumpeter of public opinion, which suppressed the crude oil price by 10 dollars, creating the biggest decline in the seventh day in the history of US crude oil (CL). Four days later, the market was prompted by the OPEC meeting's decision to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day, and American Oil set a recent record low of $62.47. In this way, US crude oil completed the perfect technical retracement from the recent historical high of US $85 to US $62 on December 1 (please see the following picture). After that, the market repeatedly competed between $72 and $62 for nearly a month, and now US c