+Follow
李金淼
No personal profile
11
Follow
16
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
李金淼
2021-05-20
?
Sorry, the original content has been removed
李金淼
2021-06-13
good
Sorry, the original content has been removed
李金淼
2021-04-28
I am coming now!
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581052926190229","uuid":"3581052926190229","gmtCreate":1617959248387,"gmtModify":1623941703608,"name":"李金淼","pinyin":"ljmlijinmiao","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":16,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":69,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.24","exceedPercentage":"93.97%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":"80.63%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":182900528,"gmtCreate":1623549381464,"gmtModify":1704205806428,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182900528","repostId":"1134192115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134192115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623070463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134192115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 20:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"5000-word in-depth analysis: How to analyze the future development potential of the industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134192115","media":" 思想钢印","summary":"为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The stage of development of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies in the same food and beverage industry or the same pharmaceutical industry, under the same growth rate, start with a PE ratio of 60 times, while others only have 20 times?</p><p>Why can some internet companies offer a 20-fold PS when they are losing money, but only 5 times when they are profitable?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple sooner? Why is Hillhouse Capital, which invests in the primary market, now investing in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the stage of industry development. Companies at different stages may have different future changes, development space, and ultimate outcomes. For example, if you are stronger than a child, but the child can grow taller, but you cannot, then the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>In my article \"5000-Word Depth: How to Quickly Judge a Company's Investment Value in 30 Minutes?\", I stated that industry potential focuses on three key factors: the industry's stage of development, cyclicality, and sustainability. The most important of these is \"the industry's stage of development,\" which I tend to divide into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early stages, which seem to have vast potential but are highly uncertain, include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLEDs, and quantum computers.</p><p></li><li>Rapid development periods following industry consumption booms, the formation of business models, or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries.</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are in this stage</p><p></li><li>Development stagnation period: most so-called \"sunset industries\" are in this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain outlook: Industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and print media.</p><p></li></ul>This article takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>The early days when the space seems large but is very uncertain</b></p><p>This type of company should theoretically be in the stage of VC and PE investment and is not within the scope of consideration in the secondary market. However, there are two exceptions: a new business model cultivated within the listed company, or a new application direction suddenly emerging for the listed company's products.</p><p>Taking the community group-buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example, it was already in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason it attracted investors' attention was because its industry space and business model were very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry Space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on the lower-tier market, avoiding competition from e-commerce and traditional commercial giants (referring to two years ago), combining \"online + offline\" scenarios, it has multiple characteristics of large space and sustainability of essential needs.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the existing retail system, does not require \"last-mile delivery\", has no inventory, is a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the consumer's social system with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">High frequency of essential needs, avoiding giants, integrating into social relationships... these are all characteristics of early-stage industries with explosive growth potential.</p><p>Although community group buying now has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying first emerged before 2020, the business reflected the uncertainty of early-stage projects: the uncertainty of social networking, the fragility of online and offline integration, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the pandemic at the beginning of last year, the period of uncertainty in community group buying might have been even longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages emerge in the secondary market, they often exhibit characteristics of thematic investment and concept hype, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Murder mystery games: Situational social interaction under the guise of games weakens competitiveness and has the potential to become a new form of entertainment product with a longer lifecycle.</p><p>metaverse: An immersive virtual space where users can engage in a variety of cultural, social, and entertainment activities, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>These types of companies are essentially investments in the VC field, and it's unlikely that one in ten will succeed. General investors should avoid getting involved.</p><p>In 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase its investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business in the massage chair industry. With this concept, its revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Ogawa. However, a year later, the \"sharing economy\" receded. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, the profit margin was taken away by the market because the industry barriers were too low. The company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry boom period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the validation of demand, technology, or business models, the successful implementation of products, and the availability of funds, the entire market is in a period of explosive growth, attracting players from all walks of life.</p><p>For example, among the industries that have recently entered a period of explosive growth: community group buying is a validated business model, medical aesthetics and new energy vehicles are experiencing explosive downstream demand, and lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both achieved technological breakthroughs, reducing costs to economic benefits.</p><p>The boom in the manufacturing sector is somewhat uneven and often very sudden, making it difficult for individual investors to grasp it. A better direction is to choose new consumption sectors whose boom period is not as intense but which last longer, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bread chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in my article \"A bad business model is an 'accident-prone area' in investment\": \"The bread making process takes a long time, uses a lot of ingredients, and has many varieties. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of the auxiliary ingredients of franchisees.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When the downstream sector is weak and scattered, there is hope for a strong upstream B2B manufacturing company to emerge. Frozen baking manufacturers, represented by Ligao Foods, have begun to provide downstream bakeries with frozen finished and semi-finished products in recent years. In particular, the latter products can be made into baked goods that have the exact same taste as freshly made bread through simple proofing and baking. The process is faster, the quality is more controllable, the taste is more uniform, and the cost is lower.</p><p>In industries experiencing explosive growth, the biggest investment problem is out-of-control valuations, such as medical aesthetics.</p><p>In industries experiencing explosive growth, it is difficult to estimate the height of their ceiling and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great valuation elasticity, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders gets out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculation funds, which take turns speculating on companies with mediocre fundamentals in the sector. Investors must distinguish between leading stocks with strong performance but overvalued stocks and stocks that are following the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between different stages of an industry are not absolute, and industries that enter a period of explosive growth do not simply emerge victorious.</p><p>Community group buying demonstrated strong commercialization capabilities last year, with its business potential appearing to be far greater than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden policy changes at the end of the year may push community group buying back to its first stage, or limit its scale to a niche market—of course, it may simply make the industry more standardized, in short, increasing uncertainty.</p><p><b>Stable growth period</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"tenfold stocks,\" ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The vast majority of A-share listed companies are in a stage of \"stable growth,\" and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies in this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the explosive performance of companies in this stage is not as strong as in the previous two stages, but in the long run, the returns from investing in this stage are not low. The A-share market is currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investments.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban layers, and a unified culture, while consumer culture has a conductivity from high to low levels. Many products are popular in first-tier cities for a few years, second- and third-tier cities for a few years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, resulting in a longer growth period than in other markets. The migration of population from lower-tier cities to higher-tier cities, and from rural areas to cities, coupled with the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, makes this process more complex and lengthy, resulting in most mature industries experiencing a growth period of at least ten years.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital companies like Hillhouse Capital, which originally focused on the primary market, have also devoted their main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and a considerable number of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Taking large appliances as an example, this is one of the earliest industries in China to have global competitiveness. 25 years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, 5 years ago it was Midea and Robam, and now it is the turn of companies like Haier that are positioned in the mid-to-high-end and have the ability to expand overseas.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature sector with significant room for penetration. Leading air conditioner manufacturers with a well-competitive landscape may still see growth of over 7% over the next ten years.</p><p>Looking at the product categories, from black appliances, which were the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white goods, which were the second to establish advantages, and then to kitchen appliances, which rose with the real estate market, from these economies of scale to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, and smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligentization.</p><p>The coexistence of product category extension and regional differences has created market depth and breadth. Leading companies that have established themselves in mature categories are more likely to emerge from the second growth curve. Robam is focusing on dishwashers, Haier is cultivating high-end brands, Midea is expanding into small home appliances, and TCL is entering the upstream panel industry.</p><p>Mature industries rely on product category expansion for growth. Therefore, for companies entering this stage, investors need to shift their perspective from industry space and product competitiveness to entrepreneurship, management, and organizational culture. Only companies that address their management radius can have the ability to continuously expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue; we'll discuss it later when analyzing management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industries was more influenced by Western economic circles, equating them with traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textiles, steel, mining, chemical machinery, etc. The actual reason is that primary manufacturing industries in Europe and the United States have lost their competitiveness due to high costs in the process of globalization and have been transferred to Asia. The so-called \"sunset\" does not refer to a decline or disappearance of demand in the industry, but rather to companies outsourcing manufacturing to supply chains, leading to the relocation of these industries to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial relocation in globalization primarily affects these traditional primary manufacturing industries, which gives investors the profound impact of sunset industries.</p><p>In fact, when it comes to traditional and primary industries, agriculture is more like a sunset industry. However, no country will allow this type of industry to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so it is not \"sunset\". This is a typical definition from a Western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, investment opportunities in these primary manufacturing industries are not \"sunset.\" I believe that China is likely to become the \"final destination\" for the relocation of traditional primary manufacturing industries, and these \"sunset industries\" will become \"industries where the sun never sets\" in China, for the following three reasons:</p><p>First, it is impossible to find a region with a greater comparative advantage.</p><p>Traditional primary manufacturing has evolved from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Four Asian Tigers,\" and finally to China, each time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage.\" Comparative advantages include not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic market size, unified market, government governance capabilities, and so on. However, looking at the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, optimization of the competitive landscape and management capabilities of traditional primary manufacturing industries.</p><p>In unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, industrial clearing and the emergence of oligopolies can slow down the trend of industrial chain transfer. This is because giants have the profits to integrate the industrial chain to reduce costs, the capital to acquire foreign companies, and the technology to set up factories abroad to globalize their production capacity.</p><p>The case of Buffett's huge losses from his investment in Berkshire Hathaway in the 1970s gives people the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who have made a fortune by buying Shenzhou International in recent years are enjoying the benefits of China's textile and apparel processing industry shifting its production capacity to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has a different impact on enterprises. Back then, European and American textile and apparel companies could not go global, but today, although China's textile and apparel industry has transferred production capacity, the enterprises are still the same. Those who go global are the enterprises that bring back profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing gene\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can adapt to different cultural environments.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing by new technologies</p><p>In previous manufacturing relocations, whether production was in the United States, Japan, or South Korea, apart from more advanced machinery and equipment and some product upgrades, the manufacturing methods did not fundamentally change.</p><p>However, after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet boom entering the B2B manufacturing sector. Whether it was the \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or the \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production methods of the manufacturing industry have undergone fundamental changes.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises. It aggregates many downstream enterprises and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to negotiate prices with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also gain the procurement cost advantage of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires internet platforms to have accumulated a large number of professional customers and to be able to provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, while also providing low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technological accumulation of digital and cloud-based services, which has certain barriers to entry.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the Industrial Internet's transformation of traditional manufacturing is likely to enable these traditional industries to no longer rely excessively on low costs and environmental costs, and to remain in China forever, or to keep their profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the industry's growth rate, liquor is a standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that is not growing, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of leading companies due to the competitive landscape. Fortunately, financing demand has decreased, profit growth is higher than revenue growth, and shareholder returns are greater than scale growth, making it an opportunity that ordinary investors can easily seize.</p><p><b>Uncertain outlook</b></p><p>Traditional primary manufacturing is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, such as traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, etc.</p><p>It is easy to judge industries where demand has already declined, but it is difficult to judge industries where future demand is unclear, such as new home development in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry; it is certainly a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new home development model faces the problem of unclear future demand. my country has the fifth largest per capita housing area in the world and is facing population decline. The proportion of second-hand homes will continue to rise in the future. Coupled with the issue of 70-year property rights, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new homes.</p><p>When investing, never gamble on your luck in an industry where the demand is unclear. Back then, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV substitution and stockpiled a large number of color tubes, hoping to expand its market share by monopolizing upstream materials through price wars. As a result, it accelerated the substitution of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>Below is Kim Kardashian's birthday gift to her son—a Sany Heavy Industry mini excavator. This isn't a celebrity joke; mini excavators were a new internet sensation on the consumption lists of middle-class American families last year, after big houses, big swimming pools, and big lawns—without an excavator at home, you wouldn't know what to talk about with your neighbors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, with demand believed to shrink as infrastructure projects decreased. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, mini excavators have become omnipotent \"magic tools\" due to population aging.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, industry development is like \"flying chess\". You have to roll a \"6\" at the beginning to really start. Along the way, you mainly move forward. Occasionally you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the extreme punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"sent back to base camp\".</p><p>The biggest problem still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded together at the same stage, where they can easily be eliminated. Leading at the start doesn't necessarily mean you can carry that lead to the end, but in the second half, after widening the gap significantly, as long as you don't make a fatal mistake, you are very likely to carry that lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how much you lead your opponent near the end, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and start a new game, all your advantages will disappear on a new battlefield. This is also the cruelest, most exciting aspect of commercial competition that constantly attracts new players.</p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000-word in-depth analysis: How to analyze the future development potential of the industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000-word in-depth analysis: How to analyze the future development potential of the industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The stage of development of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies in the same food and beverage industry or the same pharmaceutical industry, under the same growth rate, start with a PE ratio of 60 times, while others only have 20 times?</p><p>Why can some internet companies offer a 20-fold PS when they are losing money, but only 5 times when they are profitable?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple sooner? Why is Hillhouse Capital, which invests in the primary market, now investing in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the stage of industry development. Companies at different stages may have different future changes, development space, and ultimate outcomes. For example, if you are stronger than a child, but the child can grow taller, but you cannot, then the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>In my article \"5000-Word Depth: How to Quickly Judge a Company's Investment Value in 30 Minutes?\", I stated that industry potential focuses on three key factors: the industry's stage of development, cyclicality, and sustainability. The most important of these is \"the industry's stage of development,\" which I tend to divide into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early stages, which seem to have vast potential but are highly uncertain, include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLEDs, and quantum computers.</p><p></li><li>Rapid development periods following industry consumption booms, the formation of business models, or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries.</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are in this stage</p><p></li><li>Development stagnation period: most so-called \"sunset industries\" are in this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain outlook: Industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and print media.</p><p></li></ul>This article takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>The early days when the space seems large but is very uncertain</b></p><p>This type of company should theoretically be in the stage of VC and PE investment and is not within the scope of consideration in the secondary market. However, there are two exceptions: a new business model cultivated within the listed company, or a new application direction suddenly emerging for the listed company's products.</p><p>Taking the community group-buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example, it was already in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason it attracted investors' attention was because its industry space and business model were very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry Space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on the lower-tier market, avoiding competition from e-commerce and traditional commercial giants (referring to two years ago), combining \"online + offline\" scenarios, it has multiple characteristics of large space and sustainability of essential needs.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the existing retail system, does not require \"last-mile delivery\", has no inventory, is a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the consumer's social system with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">High frequency of essential needs, avoiding giants, integrating into social relationships... these are all characteristics of early-stage industries with explosive growth potential.</p><p>Although community group buying now has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying first emerged before 2020, the business reflected the uncertainty of early-stage projects: the uncertainty of social networking, the fragility of online and offline integration, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the pandemic at the beginning of last year, the period of uncertainty in community group buying might have been even longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages emerge in the secondary market, they often exhibit characteristics of thematic investment and concept hype, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Murder mystery games: Situational social interaction under the guise of games weakens competitiveness and has the potential to become a new form of entertainment product with a longer lifecycle.</p><p>metaverse: An immersive virtual space where users can engage in a variety of cultural, social, and entertainment activities, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>These types of companies are essentially investments in the VC field, and it's unlikely that one in ten will succeed. General investors should avoid getting involved.</p><p>In 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase its investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business in the massage chair industry. With this concept, its revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Ogawa. However, a year later, the \"sharing economy\" receded. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, the profit margin was taken away by the market because the industry barriers were too low. The company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry boom period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the validation of demand, technology, or business models, the successful implementation of products, and the availability of funds, the entire market is in a period of explosive growth, attracting players from all walks of life.</p><p>For example, among the industries that have recently entered a period of explosive growth: community group buying is a validated business model, medical aesthetics and new energy vehicles are experiencing explosive downstream demand, and lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both achieved technological breakthroughs, reducing costs to economic benefits.</p><p>The boom in the manufacturing sector is somewhat uneven and often very sudden, making it difficult for individual investors to grasp it. A better direction is to choose new consumption sectors whose boom period is not as intense but which last longer, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bread chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in my article \"A bad business model is an 'accident-prone area' in investment\": \"The bread making process takes a long time, uses a lot of ingredients, and has many varieties. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of the auxiliary ingredients of franchisees.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When the downstream sector is weak and scattered, there is hope for a strong upstream B2B manufacturing company to emerge. Frozen baking manufacturers, represented by Ligao Foods, have begun to provide downstream bakeries with frozen finished and semi-finished products in recent years. In particular, the latter products can be made into baked goods that have the exact same taste as freshly made bread through simple proofing and baking. The process is faster, the quality is more controllable, the taste is more uniform, and the cost is lower.</p><p>In industries experiencing explosive growth, the biggest investment problem is out-of-control valuations, such as medical aesthetics.</p><p>In industries experiencing explosive growth, it is difficult to estimate the height of their ceiling and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great valuation elasticity, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders gets out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculation funds, which take turns speculating on companies with mediocre fundamentals in the sector. Investors must distinguish between leading stocks with strong performance but overvalued stocks and stocks that are following the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between different stages of an industry are not absolute, and industries that enter a period of explosive growth do not simply emerge victorious.</p><p>Community group buying demonstrated strong commercialization capabilities last year, with its business potential appearing to be far greater than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden policy changes at the end of the year may push community group buying back to its first stage, or limit its scale to a niche market—of course, it may simply make the industry more standardized, in short, increasing uncertainty.</p><p><b>Stable growth period</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"tenfold stocks,\" ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The vast majority of A-share listed companies are in a stage of \"stable growth,\" and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies in this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the explosive performance of companies in this stage is not as strong as in the previous two stages, but in the long run, the returns from investing in this stage are not low. The A-share market is currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investments.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban layers, and a unified culture, while consumer culture has a conductivity from high to low levels. Many products are popular in first-tier cities for a few years, second- and third-tier cities for a few years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, resulting in a longer growth period than in other markets. The migration of population from lower-tier cities to higher-tier cities, and from rural areas to cities, coupled with the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, makes this process more complex and lengthy, resulting in most mature industries experiencing a growth period of at least ten years.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital companies like Hillhouse Capital, which originally focused on the primary market, have also devoted their main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and a considerable number of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Taking large appliances as an example, this is one of the earliest industries in China to have global competitiveness. 25 years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, 5 years ago it was Midea and Robam, and now it is the turn of companies like Haier that are positioned in the mid-to-high-end and have the ability to expand overseas.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature sector with significant room for penetration. Leading air conditioner manufacturers with a well-competitive landscape may still see growth of over 7% over the next ten years.</p><p>Looking at the product categories, from black appliances, which were the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white goods, which were the second to establish advantages, and then to kitchen appliances, which rose with the real estate market, from these economies of scale to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, and smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligentization.</p><p>The coexistence of product category extension and regional differences has created market depth and breadth. Leading companies that have established themselves in mature categories are more likely to emerge from the second growth curve. Robam is focusing on dishwashers, Haier is cultivating high-end brands, Midea is expanding into small home appliances, and TCL is entering the upstream panel industry.</p><p>Mature industries rely on product category expansion for growth. Therefore, for companies entering this stage, investors need to shift their perspective from industry space and product competitiveness to entrepreneurship, management, and organizational culture. Only companies that address their management radius can have the ability to continuously expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue; we'll discuss it later when analyzing management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industries was more influenced by Western economic circles, equating them with traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textiles, steel, mining, chemical machinery, etc. The actual reason is that primary manufacturing industries in Europe and the United States have lost their competitiveness due to high costs in the process of globalization and have been transferred to Asia. The so-called \"sunset\" does not refer to a decline or disappearance of demand in the industry, but rather to companies outsourcing manufacturing to supply chains, leading to the relocation of these industries to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial relocation in globalization primarily affects these traditional primary manufacturing industries, which gives investors the profound impact of sunset industries.</p><p>In fact, when it comes to traditional and primary industries, agriculture is more like a sunset industry. However, no country will allow this type of industry to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so it is not \"sunset\". This is a typical definition from a Western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, investment opportunities in these primary manufacturing industries are not \"sunset.\" I believe that China is likely to become the \"final destination\" for the relocation of traditional primary manufacturing industries, and these \"sunset industries\" will become \"industries where the sun never sets\" in China, for the following three reasons:</p><p>First, it is impossible to find a region with a greater comparative advantage.</p><p>Traditional primary manufacturing has evolved from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Four Asian Tigers,\" and finally to China, each time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage.\" Comparative advantages include not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic market size, unified market, government governance capabilities, and so on. However, looking at the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, optimization of the competitive landscape and management capabilities of traditional primary manufacturing industries.</p><p>In unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, industrial clearing and the emergence of oligopolies can slow down the trend of industrial chain transfer. This is because giants have the profits to integrate the industrial chain to reduce costs, the capital to acquire foreign companies, and the technology to set up factories abroad to globalize their production capacity.</p><p>The case of Buffett's huge losses from his investment in Berkshire Hathaway in the 1970s gives people the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who have made a fortune by buying Shenzhou International in recent years are enjoying the benefits of China's textile and apparel processing industry shifting its production capacity to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has a different impact on enterprises. Back then, European and American textile and apparel companies could not go global, but today, although China's textile and apparel industry has transferred production capacity, the enterprises are still the same. Those who go global are the enterprises that bring back profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing gene\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can adapt to different cultural environments.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing by new technologies</p><p>In previous manufacturing relocations, whether production was in the United States, Japan, or South Korea, apart from more advanced machinery and equipment and some product upgrades, the manufacturing methods did not fundamentally change.</p><p>However, after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet boom entering the B2B manufacturing sector. Whether it was the \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or the \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production methods of the manufacturing industry have undergone fundamental changes.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises. It aggregates many downstream enterprises and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to negotiate prices with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also gain the procurement cost advantage of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires internet platforms to have accumulated a large number of professional customers and to be able to provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, while also providing low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technological accumulation of digital and cloud-based services, which has certain barriers to entry.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the Industrial Internet's transformation of traditional manufacturing is likely to enable these traditional industries to no longer rely excessively on low costs and environmental costs, and to remain in China forever, or to keep their profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the industry's growth rate, liquor is a standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that is not growing, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of leading companies due to the competitive landscape. Fortunately, financing demand has decreased, profit growth is higher than revenue growth, and shareholder returns are greater than scale growth, making it an opportunity that ordinary investors can easily seize.</p><p><b>Uncertain outlook</b></p><p>Traditional primary manufacturing is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, such as traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, etc.</p><p>It is easy to judge industries where demand has already declined, but it is difficult to judge industries where future demand is unclear, such as new home development in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry; it is certainly a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new home development model faces the problem of unclear future demand. my country has the fifth largest per capita housing area in the world and is facing population decline. The proportion of second-hand homes will continue to rise in the future. Coupled with the issue of 70-year property rights, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new homes.</p><p>When investing, never gamble on your luck in an industry where the demand is unclear. Back then, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV substitution and stockpiled a large number of color tubes, hoping to expand its market share by monopolizing upstream materials through price wars. As a result, it accelerated the substitution of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>Below is Kim Kardashian's birthday gift to her son—a Sany Heavy Industry mini excavator. This isn't a celebrity joke; mini excavators were a new internet sensation on the consumption lists of middle-class American families last year, after big houses, big swimming pools, and big lawns—without an excavator at home, you wouldn't know what to talk about with your neighbors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, with demand believed to shrink as infrastructure projects decreased. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, mini excavators have become omnipotent \"magic tools\" due to population aging.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, industry development is like \"flying chess\". You have to roll a \"6\" at the beginning to really start. Along the way, you mainly move forward. Occasionally you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the extreme punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"sent back to base camp\".</p><p>The biggest problem still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded together at the same stage, where they can easily be eliminated. Leading at the start doesn't necessarily mean you can carry that lead to the end, but in the second half, after widening the gap significantly, as long as you don't make a fatal mistake, you are very likely to carry that lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how much you lead your opponent near the end, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and start a new game, all your advantages will disappear on a new battlefield. This is also the cruelest, most exciting aspect of commercial competition that constantly attracts new players.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q\"> 思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134192115","content_text":"行业所处发展阶段为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？为什么有些互联网公司亏损时，可以给20倍PS，盈利后，却只能给5倍？为什么巴菲特不早点买苹果？为什么投一级市场的高瓴要来投二级市场？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。打个比方，你比小孩子力气大，但是小孩子能长个儿，你却不能，所以小孩子的估值就应该比你高。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期，比如氢能源车、第三代半导体、OLED、量子计算机行业消费爆发、商业模式成型或者技术突破后的高速发展期，比如锂电、光伏、人工智能应用、部分医药行业、部分新消费行业稳定增长期：大部分行业都处于这个阶段发展停滞期：大部分所谓“夕阳行业”都处于这个阶段前景不明期：未来有可能被替代或大众变小众的行业，比如传统的新住宅开发、传统的超市百货、纸媒本文就以国内上市公司的行业为例，分析一下这五个阶段的投资特点。空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期这一类公司理论上应该是VC、PE投资的阶段，不在二级市场考虑范围内，但有两种情况例外——上市公司体内培育的新商业模式，或者上市公司的产品忽然出现了某个新应用方向。以美团和拼多多发力的社区团购业务为例，2020年之前就处于这一“不确定”的阶段，之所以引起投资者的注意，因为其行业空间和商业模式都非常有吸引力：1、行业空间：主打低价生活必需品，高频高粘性，面对的是最广泛人群的最基本的需求，主打下沉市场，避开电商和传统商业巨头的竞争（指的是两年前），“线上+线下”场景结合，具有大空间刚需永续性的多个特点。2、商业模式：“预售+自提”的模式避开所有现行零售体系高成本的部分，不用“最后一公里配送”，无库存、简单的中心仓，并以“团长”这个特殊的角色融入消费者的社交体系。刚需高频、避开巨头、融入社交关系……，这些都是有爆发潜力的早期行业的特点。虽然现在的社区团购已经具备比较成熟的运营模式和盈利潜力，但在2020年前社区团购刚刚兴起时，业务更多体现出早期项目的不确定性：社交链的不确定性、线上线下结合的脆弱性、运营管理的难度、规模经济的程度……，如果不是去年年初的疫情，社区团购的不确定期可能还要更长。二级市场出现类似阶段的行业或产品时，常常有主题投资和概念炒作的特点，比如近期两个题材：剧本杀：在游戏外衣下的情境社交，弱化竞技性，有可能成为有较长生命周期的新形态的娱乐产品。元宇宙：沉浸式的虚拟空间，用户可在其中进行文化、社交、娱乐等丰富的活动，将区块链、游戏、网络算力、VR等技术或商业模式融为一体。这类公司的投资本质是属于VC领域，十个中难以成功一个，对于一般投资者，应该避免介入。2017年的按摩椅行业，荣泰健康当年选择加大投入当时的“共享按摩椅”业务，凭借这一概念，营收增长和估值都高于规模更大的奥佳华，但一年后，“共享经济”退潮，共享按摩椅虽然成为少数能产生正现金流的产品，但因为行业壁垒太低，利润空间全被商场拿走了，公司不得不考虑剥离这一块业务。行业爆发期到了这个阶段，由于需求、技术或商业模式被验证，产品跑通、资金到位，导致整个市场处于爆发期，各路玩家纷纷进入。比如近期进入爆发期的行业中：社区团购是商业模式被验证，医美和新能源车是下游需求爆发，锂电和光伏兼具了技术突破，成本降到具有经济效益。制造业的爆发有一定的不均衡性，往往非常突然，一般个人投资者不太好把握，更好的方向是选择爆发期没那么猛烈但持续时间比较长的新消费，比如冷冻烘焙食品。面包连锁店不是好的商业模式，我在《不好的商业模式，是投资中的“事故多发地段”》一文讲过理由，“面包的制作工艺时间长、用料多，花样又多，总部很难控制加盟商的辅料的品质”。下游弱而散，就有希望出现一个强有力的上游2B的制造业企业，以立高食品为代表的冷冻烘焙厂商，近年来开始向下游的面包房提供冷冻成品和半成品，特别是后者，门店经过简单醒发、烘烤即可成为与现做面包口感完全一致的烘焙食品，时间更快，品质更可控、口感更统一、成本更低。处于爆发期的行业，投资上最大的问题是估值失控，比如医美。爆发式增长的行业很难估计其天花板的高度，以及高增长延续的时间，但确定性却不亚于成熟性行业，导致估值的弹性很大，股价往往由最乐观的投资者决定。一旦行业龙头的估值失控，赚钱效应很容易引发主题投资和趋势投机资金，把板块内基本面一般的公司轮流炒一遍。投资者务必要分清有业绩但高估的龙头品种，和跟风炒作的品种。需要说明的是，行业各阶段之间的界限并不绝对，进入爆发期的行业也并非就此上岸。社区团购去年已经显示了强大的商业化能力，其商业空间看上去远大于传统的生鲜电商，但年底的政策风云突变，有可能把社区团购打回到第一阶段，或者其规模从此限制在一个细分的领域——当然，也可能只是让行业更规范，总之是增加了不确定性。稳定增长期虽然前两个阶段是“十倍股”的摇篮，但一般投资者不一定把握得了。A股的绝大部分公司的行业都处于“稳定增长期”的阶段，巴菲特的护城河理论也基本上属于这个阶段的企业。短期而言，这个阶段的公司业绩爆发性不如前两个阶段，但长期而言，投资此阶段的收益并不低，A股目前更类似于巴菲特投资的黄金时代。原因在于，中国有巨大的人口量、复杂的城市层次和统一的文化，而消费文化具有从高阶到低阶的传导性，很多产品在一线城市火几年，二、三线城市火几年，再传到四线城市，成长期也比其他市场长。而人口从低线城市向高线城市迁移，农村向城市迁移，加上中国制造具备的全球竞争力，又让这个过程更加复杂和漫长，导致大部分成熟行业都要经历至少十年以上的成长期。所以像高瓴资本这样原本做一级市场的风险投资，近几年也把主要精力投身二级市场，且相当一部分都是处于成熟阶段的企业。以大家电为例，这是中国最早具备全球竞争力的行业，25年前的成长股是长虹、康佳，15年前是格力，5年前是美的、老板，现在又重新轮到海尔一类定位中高端，具备海外扩张能力的公司。这就导致很多投资者视之为成熟行业的家电行业，渗透率仍有很大空间，竞争格局好的空调龙头，可能还有十年7%以上的增长。再从品类上看，从最早获得突破的黑电，到其次建立优势的白电，再到随房地产起来的厨电，从这些规模经济领域，发展到依赖产业链效率和功能创新的小家电，还有加入智能化浪潮的智能家电。品类延伸与区域差异并存，造就了市场的深度与广度，在成熟品类站住脚的头部企业更容易走出第二增长曲线——老板发力洗碗机，海尔培养高端品牌，美的布局小家电，TCL进军上游面板行业。成熟行业增长靠品类扩张，所以进入这个阶段的企业，投资者需要把公司的观察视角，从行业空间与产品竞争力的层面，转移到企业家精神与管理和组织文化的层面。只有解决管理半径的企业，才能拥有持续扩张的能力。当然，这就不是行业层面的问题了，留到分析管理能力的时候再说。低增长期过去，我们对夕阳行业的定义更多受到西方经济界的影响，等同于纺织钢铁采掘化工机械等传统初级制造业，实际原因是欧美初级制造业在全球化中，由于成本过高失去了竞争力而被转移到亚洲。所谓的“夕阳”，并不是这个行业需求下降或消失，而是企业将制造环节外包为供应链，导致这些产业转移到其他国家。而且，全球化的每一次产业转移，首当其冲的都是这类传统初级制造行业，这才给投资者以夕阳行业的深刻影响。事实上，要说传统、初级，农业更像夕阳行业，但任何一个国家都不会允许这类产业全球化，加上美国又有成本优势，所以就不“夕阳”了，这就是典型的西方视角的定义。所以，这类初级制造行业的投资机会并不“夕阳”，我认为，中国很可能成为传统初级制造业转移的“终点站”，这类“夕阳行业”将在中国成为“日不落行业”，基于以下三个原因：第一、再也无法找到更有比较优势的地区传统初级制造业从欧美到日本再到“亚洲四小龙”，最后到中国，每一次都是因为后者有“比较优势”。比较优势比较的不仅仅是劳动力成本，还包括基础设施、内需市场规模、统一市场、政府治理能力，等等，但放眼全球，几乎没有一个地区可以完全接受中国传统制造业的转移。第二、传统初级制造业竞争格局和管理能力的优化不赚钱的行业，只要竞争格局优化到一定程度，产业出清，寡头出现，也能延缓产业链转移的趋势。这是因为，巨头有利润进行产业链一体化降低成本，有资本对国外企业进行收购，有技术在国外设厂，进行产能全球化布局。巴菲特70年代投资伯克希尔巨亏的案例，给大家以美国纺织业在全球化中失败的印象，但这几年买申洲国际大赚的投资者，享受的恰恰是中国纺织服装加工行业产能转移到越南印度的红利。产能的转移对企业的影响不同，当年欧美纺织服装企业走不出去，而今天的中国纺织服装业，虽然产能转移出去了，但企业还是这些企业，走出去的是企业，带回来的是利润，其原因正是前一条所说的中国企业血液中的“制造业基因”，能够适合不同的文化土壤。第三、新技术对传统初级制造业的改造前几次制造业的转移，不管是在美国生产，还是在日本、韩国生产，除了机器设备更先进，产品有一些升级，其制造方式并没有本质的变化。可制造业转移到中国之后，恰逢互联网大潮进入2B的制造领域，不管是十年前的“鼠标+水泥”，还是五年前的“互联网+”，制造业的生产方式都有了本质的变化。以国联股份为例，解决的是中小企业低成本采购问题，聚合众多下游企业，利用“集采”的模式向上游供应商砍价，使中小企业也能获得大企业的采购成本优势。这个模式要求互联网平台已经积累了大量专业客户，并能够提供高度垂直、高度细分的产品，同时能提供低成本的物流仓储服务，这就要求数字化、云化服务的技术积淀，有一定的壁垒。从物流到采购再到生产，工业互联网对传统制造业的改造，很可能让这些传统行业不再过度依赖低成本和支付环境代价，永远地留在中国，或者把利润留在中国。如果只看行业增速，白酒就是标准的“夕阳行业”。对于这一类不增长的行业而言，胜在竞争格局导致的龙头确定性强，好在融资需求下降，利润增速高于营收增速，股东回报大于规模增长，反而是普通投资者容易把握的机会。前景不明期传统初级制造业一点也不“夕阳”，真正的“夕阳行业”往往是因为新技术、新产品和新商业模式出现，进入需求下降的行业，类似传统相机、普通手表、普通仿制药、上一代电子产品，等等。已经出现需求下降的行业是很好判断的，难的是未来需求不明的行业，比如房地产行业中的新房开发。这里并不是说房地产是夕阳行业，房地产当然是永续经营的行业，但我国目前的新房开发模式，面临未来的需求不明确的问题。我国的人均住房面积世界第五，又面临人口下降，未来二手房占比越来越高，再加上七十年产权的问题，让未来新房开发模式很难预计。投资，千万不要在需求不明确的行业里赌自己的运气。当年长虹低估了液晶电视替代的速度，大量囤积彩管，想通过价格战垄断上游材料扩大份额，结果反而加速了液晶电视的替代，自己陷入财务危机。行业发展如飞行棋下面是金·卡戴珊给儿子的生日礼物——一台三一重工的微型挖掘机，这不是明星搞怪，微型挖掘机是去年美国中产家庭的消费清单上，在大House，大泳池，大草坪之后的新晋网红——家里没有挖掘机，你都不知道出门跟邻居聊啥。挖掘机一度被认为是夕阳行业，认为需求会随着基建工程的减少而萎缩，事实上，不光是美国，在日本，微型挖掘机也因为人口老龄化而变成无所不能的“神器”。本文虽然列了五个阶段，但现实世界里，行业发展就像“飞行棋”，一开始投出“6”才能真正出发，一路上以前进为主，偶尔能“连续飞行”，但也常常遇到“后退几步”，甚至因犯规被“停止一次”，甚至被“打回大本营”的极刑。最大困扰还是来自竞争对手，特别是大家拥挤在同一个阶段时，一不小心就会被干掉。一开局领先，不一定能把领先优势进行到底，但到了后半程，拉开相当的差距后，只要自己不犯致命错误，很可能会将领先优势带到终局。然而，不管你多么领先对手接近终局，只要对手有能力掀翻桌子，重开一局，在一个新的战场上，你所有的优势都将荡然无存，这也是商业竞争的游戏中最残酷、最刺激、不断吸引新玩家入场的一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197223682,"gmtCreate":1621469977146,"gmtModify":1704358030409,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197223682","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100299705,"gmtCreate":1619615240407,"gmtModify":1704726814395,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I am coming now!","listText":"I am coming now!","text":"I am coming now!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100299705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":197223682,"gmtCreate":1621469977146,"gmtModify":1704358030409,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197223682","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182900528,"gmtCreate":1623549381464,"gmtModify":1704205806428,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182900528","repostId":"1134192115","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100299705,"gmtCreate":1619615240407,"gmtModify":1704726814395,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am coming now!","listText":"I am coming now!","text":"I am coming now!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100299705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
