SirBahamut
SirBahamutLV7 军师虎
Profile:巴哈姆特 | Tech and REIT specialist
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ST Engineering – “Defence” is the best offence!

$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$  ST Engineering (STE)'s share price has been underperforming over the past few months. I think the main reason is due to an increase in STE's total debt to S$6.2bn in 1H22, leading to higher finance costs. Also, the anticipated earnings accretion from the Transcore acquisition is yet to be realized and is expected to come only in 2H23F. Furthermore, STE's FY22 PATMI was slightly lower than expected due to the impact of higher input costs in the inflationary environment on its margin. Despite these challenges, STE’s growth prospects are expected to improve in 2023, driven by a record order-book of S$23bn, a decrease in losses from passenger-to-freighter (PTF) conversion, and the recovery of global air
ST Engineering – “Defence” is the best offence!
$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$  MUST found new Korean Oppa to rescue her! @LMSunshine  https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hot-stock-manulife-us-reit-38-report-manager-being-acquired MUST is said to have identified Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. as their white knight according to media reports! Mirae reported to be acquiring the REIT manager and purchase part of a stake in the REIT. The devil’s in the details, but this is indeed a good news to MUST and one of the key re-rating catalysts for MUST that investors have been waiting for.

SG banks overreaction to SVB, good opportunity to accumulate!

$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$  I noticed our three local SG bank share price has declined quite a lot due to the SVB fiasco, which I find it puzzling because the collapse of SVB is largely a non-event to SG banks. I think that the market has overreacted too much, especially with the potential 50bps Fed hike on 22 March 2023. Recap: What happened to SVB? SVB's collapse was caused by mismanagement of assets and liabilities during a period of rising interest rates. The bank experienced significant inflows of deposits due to a technology-driven boom in 2019-2021, which SVB invested in long-term securities such as treasury and MBS. However, when interest rates rose, SVB suffered significant unrealized investment los
SG banks overreaction to SVB, good opportunity to accumulate!
Isnt the core CPI higher? 😅😅😅. But market celebrates anyway. Market sees what it likes [Cool] 
Pre-Bell|U.S. Stock Futures Jumped after CPI in line with Expectations; First Republic Jumped 53%
$ASMPT(00522)$ Woah bloomberg leaked that there is takeover interest from a PE investor for ASMPT after its strong result for 4Q! This top backend equipment maker is seeing strong demand from its automotive and advanced packaging end market. I am not very familiar with this company, but I know advanced packaging and automotive are experiencing very strong growth last year and many years to come! Sir Bahamut will do more research. Interesting company!

TSMC’s Feb 2023 sales slightly weaker. YTD Feb 2023 +13.8% growth ☹️

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  Today after the market closed, TSMC announced their February 2023 revenue of NT163.174bn, which represents an increase of 11.1% y-o-y but -18.4% growth m-o-m. This comes as a slight disappointment after January’s strong growth. YTD Feb revenue achieved NT319.1bn, which is approximately 60+% of TSMC’s 1Q23 guidance. TSMC management had previously guided the market that its revenue in 1Q23 will decline 14.2% q-o-q at the midpoint guidance. It seems like TSMC’s top clients such as Apple and Qualcomm are reducing chip production due to weak demand and inventory corrections across the end market. On the other hand, there should be some positivity from Nvida as demand for its gami
TSMC’s Feb 2023 sales slightly weaker. YTD Feb 2023 +13.8% growth ☹️

Sea Ltd: Unexpected positive earnings surprise!

$Sea Ltd(SE)$  Sea Ltd (SE) blew my mind when I saw its 4Q22 EBITDA and net profit both turned positive! This is far better than consensus’s estimates of US$433m loss! The 4Q22 results were exceptional, surpassing expectations and achieving significant profit milestones, including adjusted EBITDA breakeven on both Shopee and digital financial services (SeaMoney) segments, group level GAAP profitability and positive cash flow! Quick result summary 4Q22 GAAP revenue increased by 7% YoY and 9% QoQ. Strong cost discipline allowed for a rapid turnaround in 4Q22 as SE achieved adj. EBITDA of US$496m, driven by the strong beat on Shopee and SeaMoney EBITDA, offsetting the weaker performance of Garena. Sales and marketing ex
Sea Ltd: Unexpected positive earnings surprise!

CrowdStrike: Conservative outlook in 2023, but still strong!

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  CrowdStrike (CRWD) has been in my portfolio since 2020 and has been my favourite cybersecurity company! CRWD's disruptive platform has made it a leader in the Endpoint Security market, enabling it to efficiently penetrate core and adjacent markets. Due to its strong unit economics and go-to-market efficiency, CrowdStrike has more flexibility than its peers in driving incremental profitability, and has consistently exceeded expectations and is on track to achieve its goal of $5bn of ARR by FY26. Highly favourable Gartner ratings! For consecutive years since its initial public offering in 2019, CRWD has consistently received high ratings from Gartner. In 2022, it was ranked as the top performer for compl
CrowdStrike: Conservative outlook in 2023, but still strong!

Nvidia: Accelerating Datacenter and Gaming Recovery!

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  Nvidia reported its result on 21 February 2023 and I would like to do a quick update on the result-review as well as my post-result thoughts. Nvidia’s reported 4Q23 (Jan-Qtr) revenue/GMs/EPS are all above consensus. Revenue increased by 2% due to the recovery in demand for gaming GPUs, primarily driven by the strong demand for RTX40, but offset by softer Data Center sales mainly due to weaker demand in China. Strong rebound for DC expected, supported by Generative AI hype! Nvidia anticipates an acceleration in Data Center revenue growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by an increase in demand for AI computing, potential restocking demand from Cloud Service Provider (CSP) customers, and the lau
Nvidia: Accelerating Datacenter and Gaming Recovery!

Grab: I’m not impressed with its EBITDA breakeven

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  Regular readers will know that I am bearish on Grab for the longest time. Well, this 4Q22 result has not change my mind. Grab released its 4Q22 result last week, which is better than market’s expectation. The greatest highlight is that Grab was brought forward its adjusted EBITDA breakeven guidance earlier to 4Q23 from its previous guidance of 2H24 by “prioritizing high-quality GMV” and cost-cutting. However, this came at the expense of GMV growth, as the improved delivery margin was accompanied by a contraction in GMV. Furthermore, although there was full economic opening, mobility GMV only increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, which was disappointing. 4Q22 Result Review Grab's GMV increased b
Grab: I’m not impressed with its EBITDA breakeven

Genting Singapore: Not bad recovery!

$GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED(G13.SI)$  Genting Singapore reported its result on Monday, slightly upbeat compared to my expectation! 4Q22 result analysis Genting Singapore generated S$543m in revenue for 4Q22, which was consistent with consensus estimates. Both gaming and non-gaming revenues have rebounded, reaching 96%/78% of pre-Covid-19 levels from 4Q19. Although there was a slight decline in gaming revenue due to a lower win rate, this was compensated by higher rolling volume. For non-gaming revenues, the slower recovery of could be attributed partly to the ongoing renovation works at Festive Hotel, which is scheduled to reopen in May 2023 and will add 389 rooms to RWS's current estimated 1.2k rooms. Hotel occupancy was at 80%, and the ave
Genting Singapore: Not bad recovery!

Cloudflare: Beneficiary of ChatGPT? 4Q22 earnings review!

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$  Cloudflare's FY22 Q4 revenue was in line with expectations and was overshadowed by its better-than-expected guidance for FY23 revenue growth and PF operating margin.  The company's guidance seems to be prudently derisked, and while it is not immune to macro headwinds, it appears to be executing well. Despite signs of deceleration in metrics such as RPO, DBNRR, and customer growth, Cloudflare's deceleration rate seems less steep than that of software companies in related markets, which is encouraging given its innovative and price-disruptive offerings. Some signs of deceleration Although Q4 revenue growth of 41.9% slightly exceeded the consensus estimate of 41.6%, there are signs of deceleration in Cloudflare's bus
Cloudflare: Beneficiary of ChatGPT? 4Q22 earnings review!
$RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD(BSL.SI)$  Lately, I saw quite a few reports on positive catalysts for Raffles Medical Group (RMG). Firstly, RMG is set to benefit from a rebound in medical tourism. RMG observed that visitors from regional countries (such as Indonesia, Vietnam, etc) have been flowing in since Singapore significantly eased its border restrictions. RMG foresee that the number of medical tourists will exceed the levels seen prior to the Covid pandemic. These patients from abroad have historically accounted for 25-30% of Raffles Medical hospital revenue, and it is expected that this figure could be surpassed in 2023-24. The recovery in this industry is being stimulated by the return of Indonesian patients and the growing int
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  There was so much hype on NVDA from the recent craze about ChatGPT AI, which is understandable. NVDA's A100/H100 is used to trained 90-95% of the AI, and 1 of such chip is priced between 12-14k!  However, investors seems to forgot one interesting aspect of the buzz surrounding ChatGPT AI that has gone largely unnoticed: the crucial role played by TSMC! As the only foundry capable of producing highly advanced AI chips, such as Nvidia's A100/H100, TSMC holds a unique position in this AI market! Additionally, TSMC is one of a limited number of foundries capable of handling advanced packaging for AI chips, further emphasizing its importance in the field.  Not

Keppel Corp: The Spinoff is OFFICAL!

$KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED(BN4.SI)$  The proposal to merge with Keppel Offshore & Marine was officially approved by 95.28% of Sembcorp Marine's shareholders yesterday! Following this EGM, Keppel Offshore & Marine (excluding legacy rig assets and related receivables in Asset Co) will be integrated into Sembcorp Marine (SMM), with Sembcorp Marine owning a 46% share. The remaining 54% share will be held by Keppel Corporation, which will transfer 49% of the stake to its shareholders through a distributing-in-specie (DIS) mechanism in a ratio of 19:1 Sembcorp Marine shares, with each share having an implied value of S$2.32 per Keppel Corporation share if we used 1x PB for SMM. The ex-distribution date of the DI
Keppel Corp: The Spinoff is OFFICAL!

ESR REIT: Another negative-carry dilutive EFR (haiz)

$ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)$  EREIT plans to raise at least S$300m through a private placement and preferential offering to repay debt while waiting for future acquisitions, redevelopments, or AEIs. The private placement will aim to raise at least S$150m at a discounted issue price of S$0.33-0.335 per share. The non-renounceable preferential offering will also aim to raise at least S$150m at a discounted price of 0.5cts below the private placement price. The private placement is fully underwritten. ESR and LOGOS Group, the sponsors, will subscribe to its provisional allotments of the preferential offering and any additional preferential offering units up to a total of S$150m. The net proceeds from the equity raising will be used to repay debt tempo
ESR REIT: Another negative-carry dilutive EFR (haiz)

Singapore Budget 2023: Winner and Losers

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  [I saw a similar title in Bloomberg after writing, rest assured my views are different!] DPM Lawrence Wong delivered his speech for the Singaporean budget for FY2023. The budget forecasts a slight deficit of 0.1% of GDP, taking into account the expected slower economic growth of 0.5-2.5%. For households, policies are focused on offsetting the impact of GST hikes and inflation, increasing housing support, and improving the workforce's skills. For businesses, the focus is on attracting higher-end R&D and intellectual property development in the medium term. Here are some the immediate impacts I can identify on SG-listed companies: Good for Retail, Mixed for developers In the property sector,
Singapore Budget 2023: Winner and Losers
$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$  Repost my MUST article dated30 dec for you hehe: Be careful of Manulife US REIT Manulife US REIT (MUST) today announced that the property valuations of their portfolio dropped by 10.9%, causing the gearing to increase from 42.5% as at 30 Sep 2022 to 49%! This is dangerously close to breaching MAS’s regulatory limit of 50% leverage! According to MUST’s announcement, the decline in property valuations is primarily caused by higher discount rates and capitalization rates for certain properties due to deteriorating fundamentals at the property level, as well as declining performance in the submarkets where the properties are located due to weak demand and leasing activity, resulting in higher concessions and leasin

Link REIT: Huge DPU dilution, Negative shock!

$LINK REIT(00823)$  Last Friday, Link REIT announced a rights issue to raise HKD 18.8 billion for debt reduction and acquisition of more assets. Link REIT plans to offer one rights unit for every five existing units held, with a subscription price of HKD 44.20 per rights unit, which is approximately 29.6% discount from the last closing price. This was a huge negative surprise, as this is the first time Link REIT had to turn to the equity market for funding since its IPO in 2005! Previously, Link REIT has relied on the sale of assets to finance acquisitions. Approximately 40-50% of the net proceeds generated will go towards repaying existing debt and general working capital needs, with the remaining funds earmarked for future investments with
Link REIT: Huge DPU dilution, Negative shock!

TSMC’s Jan 2023 powered on! Jan 2023 +16.2% growth!

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  Today after the market closed, TSMC announced their January 2023 revenue of NT200.051bn, which represents an increase of 16.2% y-o-y and 3.9% growth m-o-m! This comes as a pleasant surprise as TSMC management had previously guided the market that its revenue in 1Q23 will decline 14.2% quarter over quarter at the midpoint guidance! In particular, almost all of TSMC’s top clients such as Apple, AMD and Qualcomm are reducing chip production due to weak demand and inventory corrections across the end market. So, its very surprising that TSMC stands out among its peers in the technology industry. TSMC’s sales growth momentum is rather uncommon in the current semi downcycle trend
TSMC’s Jan 2023 powered on! Jan 2023 +16.2% growth!

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