集韩 personal page - To The Moon

集韩

No personal profile

3Follow

5Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2025-03-27

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain

2023-05-05

2023-05-04

2023-04-29

Sell at May and run away

@MillionaireTiger:【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?

2023-02-02

👀

The surge in US stocks hides a "devil"! What happened?

2023-02-02

$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻

2022-09-01

$标普500(.SPX)$

2022-03-02

💰💰

How to break free from the vicious cycle of "small profits, big losses"? Position management is key

2022-02-22

👍🏻👍🏻

The investment philosophy behind "Wall Street must-read classics"

2022-02-21

👍🏻

Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?

2022-01-31

👍🏻

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581989768565324","uuid":"3581989768565324","gmtCreate":1618897312783,"gmtModify":1750661854045,"name":"集韩","pinyin":"jhjihan","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":64,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.30","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.06","exceedPercentage":"60.70%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":418177377399080,"gmtCreate":1743089988582,"gmtModify":1743089992555,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15dcc60417d517a8eab86e56f239a283","width":"1176","height":"2224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418177377399080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656924632,"gmtCreate":1683291733827,"gmtModify":1683291733827,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8552af8430cf7b919d81388b54f74153","width":"1620","height":"1884"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656924632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656066100,"gmtCreate":1683208654701,"gmtModify":1683208654701,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdaf831dd581026137ab50dd1af6b316","width":"2160","height":"1296"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656066100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947145515,"gmtCreate":1682726201638,"gmtModify":1682726206682,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell at May and run away","listText":"Sell at May and run away","text":"Sell at May and run away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's price policy affects short-term US Treasury bonds, while quantitative policy affects medium- to long-term US Treasury bonds. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced in the Federal Reserve's tightening of rate hike and even the end of rate hike, but the impact of shrinking balance sheet has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best possible combination: the US economy had not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds had fallen sharply; The coming months may see the worst-case scenario: the US economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>rate hike continues to slow down, and the market's dovish interpretation is somewhat inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased somewhat; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have already reacted to the rate hike, but the impact of monetary policy has been delayed and has not yet been fully manifested, requiring observation.<b>3）</b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would receive 25 basis points at this policy meeting, rate hike would receive 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin considering interest rate cuts in November and December. While acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed considerations such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future. At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Returning to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projects U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, compared to the published figure of 0.96%. The Federal Reserve's expected unemployment rate rebounded to 3.7% in December, compared to the actual 3.5%. As long as economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal.<b>2) However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. not experience negative economic growth. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations are emerging. 1) The \"devil\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It is evident that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, it will be more difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to further decline.</b>The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><b>The United States has seen its best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the coming months, we may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved. Based on this, our judgments on various asset classes are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year US Treasury yield has entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the inverted curve between long and short terms narrowed;<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have some negative impact on RMB-denominated assets, but the internal causes remain the core contradiction of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>rate hike continues to slow down, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve released a statement at its February policy meeting, raising the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stated that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $60 billion per month and MBS by $35 billion per month since September.</p><p><b>Based on Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve's continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased somewhat (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to the rate hike, but the lagged impact of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation, and financial development has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of expectation discrepancies.</b>Following the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, US Treasury yields fell significantly, US stocks surged, and gold also performed well. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on February 1, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in this policy meeting, rate hike by 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November and December. Following the statement, while acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed concerns such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention when to end the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future (if the data remains strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high). At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled pre-meeting market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will be subject to certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Federal Reserve began to slow down after the midterm elections. rate hike confirmed the view we have been emphasizing since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are a watershed moment in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy,\" and it can be seen that the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy carries certain political considerations. Looking ahead, the timing of interest rate cuts is likely to be the most critical time window for the economy and politics, rather than immediately releasing a rate cut signal right after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is about to end, the expectation gap is most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether it's a little more (rate hike) or a little less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In response to reporters' questions, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If US employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is a 25-basis-point rate hike release in March a foregone conclusion, but the market may even revise its expectations that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to shift to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Based on the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at an opportune time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, then the market's attention will subsequently turn to the impact of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What impact will the Fed's balance sheet reduction have? Has it been fully absorbed by the market? When does the US economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Let's get back to the economy itself: it exceeded expectations in the short term, but is approaching a recession.</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projected U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, but the final figure was 0.96%. The December economic outlook also expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, compared to 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Federal Reserve's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp downturn in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be somewhat excessive.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report on December 28, 2022, \"The Resilience of the US Economy and Its Implications for China After Opening Up,\" that in the past two years, against the backdrop of labor shortages, low- and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the pandemic were more likely to obtain high-paying jobs after the pandemic, thereby enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. However, this does not prevent the U.S. economy from impending a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has experienced eight rapid declines from its highs, with eight peaks occurring in Q4 1974, Q2 1981, Q4 1990, Q3 2001, Q3 2008, Q3 2011, and Q2 2022. Previously, the U.S. composite average cost index for businesses peaked and then fell rapidly. Only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. experience negative economic growth; the U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the other six times. This reflects that a slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike’s efforts to suppress inflation. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination is emerging.</b></p><p><b>The \"demon\" hidden in the details: M2 turning negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline in inflation, is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>Concerns about high inflation in the United States emerged in the market in the second half of 2020. The main logic was that M2 saw a rare double-digit year-on-year growth, with M2 growing by as much as 26.9% year-on-year in February 2021, the highest since data became available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the US CPI rose rapidly and sharply from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, like a runaway horse, reaching a high of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, U.S. M2 growth fell to -1.3% year-on-year, marking the first time it has turned negative since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of US M2 after the pandemic fueled inflation, then a negative year-on-year turn in M2 theoretically means that US inflation may fall more rapidly and significantly than expected. This conclusion supports the Federal Reserve in quickly ending its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the figure below, each major shock to the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet exacerbates year-on-year fluctuations in M2. The decline in year-on-year M2 growth from its peak in March 2021 coincided with the inflection point of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the sharp drop in year-on-year M2 growth in the United States, while the turn of year-on-year M2 growth to negative growth, was most likely a result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's price-based instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 2 years and below, while quantitative instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and above. Currently, it seems increasingly difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, given the increasing risks of both economic recession and downside inflation, the central level of the 10-year US Treasury yield should further decline, approaching 3% or even lower. However, supply and demand relationships may counter this trend. First, the Federal Reserve's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect short-term US Treasury yields more than they directly affect long-term yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term US Treasury yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, factors driving demand for long-term US Treasury bonds also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing their holdings of US Treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 4.25% in 2022, significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this was not driven by Fed rate hike, but rather by a combination of economic factors (including high inflation), Fed shrinking balance sheet, and reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>This shows that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>IV. The final decline in US stocks may be about to begin.</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we kept saying that the US stock market would experience a final drop triggered by a decline in earnings, but it never happened. The reason is that the US economy still remains resilient and the market had already taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in US stocks in the past quarter reflects that \"the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply.\" As a result, the 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a historical high of 29.92 times. If, as we predict, the US financial market environment faces the worst-case scenario in the next 1-2 quarters: \"the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is constrained by factors such as the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, making it difficult for the center to move further downwards,\" then US stocks are bound to begin their final decline to kill earnings.</p><p>Based on this, our assessment of various asset classes in the coming months is as follows:<b>1）</b>Long-term US Treasury yields have entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>Short-term US Treasury yields continued to decline, and the inversion between long and short-term yields narrowed.<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the US economic and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's price policy affects short-term US Treasury bonds, while quantitative policy affects medium- to long-term US Treasury bonds. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced in the Federal Reserve's tightening of rate hike and even the end of rate hike, but the impact of shrinking balance sheet has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best possible combination: the US economy had not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds had fallen sharply; The coming months may see the worst-case scenario: the US economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>rate hike continues to slow down, and the market's dovish interpretation is somewhat inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased somewhat; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have already reacted to the rate hike, but the impact of monetary policy has been delayed and has not yet been fully manifested, requiring observation.<b>3）</b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would receive 25 basis points at this policy meeting, rate hike would receive 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin considering interest rate cuts in November and December. While acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed considerations such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future. At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Returning to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projects U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, compared to the published figure of 0.96%. The Federal Reserve's expected unemployment rate rebounded to 3.7% in December, compared to the actual 3.5%. As long as economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal.<b>2) However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. not experience negative economic growth. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations are emerging. 1) The \"devil\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It is evident that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, it will be more difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to further decline.</b>The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><b>The United States has seen its best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the coming months, we may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved. Based on this, our judgments on various asset classes are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year US Treasury yield has entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the inverted curve between long and short terms narrowed;<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have some negative impact on RMB-denominated assets, but the internal causes remain the core contradiction of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>rate hike continues to slow down, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve released a statement at its February policy meeting, raising the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stated that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $60 billion per month and MBS by $35 billion per month since September.</p><p><b>Based on Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve's continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased somewhat (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to the rate hike, but the lagged impact of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation, and financial development has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of expectation discrepancies.</b>Following the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, US Treasury yields fell significantly, US stocks surged, and gold also performed well. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on February 1, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in this policy meeting, rate hike by 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November and December. Following the statement, while acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed concerns such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention when to end the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future (if the data remains strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high). At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled pre-meeting market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will be subject to certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Federal Reserve began to slow down after the midterm elections. rate hike confirmed the view we have been emphasizing since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are a watershed moment in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy,\" and it can be seen that the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy carries certain political considerations. Looking ahead, the timing of interest rate cuts is likely to be the most critical time window for the economy and politics, rather than immediately releasing a rate cut signal right after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is about to end, the expectation gap is most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether it's a little more (rate hike) or a little less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In response to reporters' questions, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If US employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is a 25-basis-point rate hike release in March a foregone conclusion, but the market may even revise its expectations that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to shift to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Based on the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at an opportune time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, then the market's attention will subsequently turn to the impact of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What impact will the Fed's balance sheet reduction have? Has it been fully absorbed by the market? When does the US economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Let's get back to the economy itself: it exceeded expectations in the short term, but is approaching a recession.</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projected U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, but the final figure was 0.96%. The December economic outlook also expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, compared to 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Federal Reserve's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp downturn in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be somewhat excessive.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report on December 28, 2022, \"The Resilience of the US Economy and Its Implications for China After Opening Up,\" that in the past two years, against the backdrop of labor shortages, low- and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the pandemic were more likely to obtain high-paying jobs after the pandemic, thereby enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. However, this does not prevent the U.S. economy from impending a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has experienced eight rapid declines from its highs, with eight peaks occurring in Q4 1974, Q2 1981, Q4 1990, Q3 2001, Q3 2008, Q3 2011, and Q2 2022. Previously, the U.S. composite average cost index for businesses peaked and then fell rapidly. Only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. experience negative economic growth; the U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the other six times. This reflects that a slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike’s efforts to suppress inflation. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination is emerging.</b></p><p><b>The \"demon\" hidden in the details: M2 turning negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline in inflation, is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>Concerns about high inflation in the United States emerged in the market in the second half of 2020. The main logic was that M2 saw a rare double-digit year-on-year growth, with M2 growing by as much as 26.9% year-on-year in February 2021, the highest since data became available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the US CPI rose rapidly and sharply from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, like a runaway horse, reaching a high of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, U.S. M2 growth fell to -1.3% year-on-year, marking the first time it has turned negative since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of US M2 after the pandemic fueled inflation, then a negative year-on-year turn in M2 theoretically means that US inflation may fall more rapidly and significantly than expected. This conclusion supports the Federal Reserve in quickly ending its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the figure below, each major shock to the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet exacerbates year-on-year fluctuations in M2. The decline in year-on-year M2 growth from its peak in March 2021 coincided with the inflection point of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the sharp drop in year-on-year M2 growth in the United States, while the turn of year-on-year M2 growth to negative growth, was most likely a result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's price-based instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 2 years and below, while quantitative instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and above. Currently, it seems increasingly difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, given the increasing risks of both economic recession and downside inflation, the central level of the 10-year US Treasury yield should further decline, approaching 3% or even lower. However, supply and demand relationships may counter this trend. First, the Federal Reserve's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect short-term US Treasury yields more than they directly affect long-term yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term US Treasury yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, factors driving demand for long-term US Treasury bonds also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing their holdings of US Treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 4.25% in 2022, significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this was not driven by Fed rate hike, but rather by a combination of economic factors (including high inflation), Fed shrinking balance sheet, and reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>This shows that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>IV. The final decline in US stocks may be about to begin.</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we kept saying that the US stock market would experience a final drop triggered by a decline in earnings, but it never happened. The reason is that the US economy still remains resilient and the market had already taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in US stocks in the past quarter reflects that \"the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply.\" As a result, the 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a historical high of 29.92 times. If, as we predict, the US financial market environment faces the worst-case scenario in the next 1-2 quarters: \"the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is constrained by factors such as the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, making it difficult for the center to move further downwards,\" then US stocks are bound to begin their final decline to kill earnings.</p><p>Based on this, our assessment of various asset classes in the coming months is as follows:<b>1）</b>Long-term US Treasury yields have entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>Short-term US Treasury yields continued to decline, and the inversion between long and short-term yields narrowed.<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the US economic and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders enter the market and experience a phase of \"small profits and large losses.\" The capital curve during this phase also shows slight rises and sharp falls, and some even fall all the way down without any signs of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How can we break the strange phenomenon of funds being completely depleted in the midst of \"small profits and big losses\"? Perhaps this can offer you some insights from the perspective of position management. Position management is often broadly referred to as \"money management.\" Although this term is not precise, it is often universally applicable within the trading community. So what exactly is position management? As the name suggests, it's about managing your positions. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the full position is the so-called position ratio. According to Baidu Baike, this is defined as: in a risk market, risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of capital invested in a single transaction.</p><p>Through the above explanation, you should now have a relatively accurate understanding of \"position management.\" Below, we will discuss...<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mindset issues in position management.</b>This paper explains how to solve the problem of \"small profits and large losses\" from three aspects.</p><p>I. The Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The prerequisite for studying position management must be consistent trading methods and the fixed use of one or more combinations to participate in the market; otherwise, position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is simple: just like in poker, the criteria for folding and raising should be the same every time. Otherwise, who can say for sure whether you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a large bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what the market will be like at some point in the future, or what price it will represent. Even if someone does it in the short term, it will definitely be a mistake. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict market trends when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market becomes obvious to us. Since the market is never predictable, do you still have any reason to use all your funds for position holding?</p><p>At this point, you might ask, how can you make enough profits without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of pursuing profit, while at the same time untying the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the beginner stage, unrestrained investment without a guaranteed win rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to lose money.</p><p>Position management is a risk prevention measure, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful veterans often tell us that we can only invest heavily under fairly certain circumstances, and even then, this is based on preparing for stop-loss orders in advance. After all, survival is the key to profiting in the market.</p><p>This shows that position management is essential in market competition. It's never a bad idea to invest smaller positions before you can properly interpret market signals and establish a sound trading system. While it can't temporarily help you escape \"small profits,\" combined with stop-loss position management, it can at least help you stop \"large losses.\" This is a symbolic victory in the entire trading process: your funds will finally stop flowing out in large quantities.</p><p>II. How to manage positions?</p><p>If the aforementioned are so-called \"worldviews,\" then in this section we will explore the \"methodology\" of position management. First, there's one thing everyone needs to understand: position control doesn't solve the problem of low winning rates; it only slows down traders' deaths so they have enough time and opportunity to capture their own wave of market opportunities. Therefore, position management cannot be discussed in isolation, but should be considered in conjunction with each person's trading time period, psychological tolerance, and entry and exit criteria.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high win rate, but their profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict position control when engaging in trend trading to reduce the cost of test orders. Once a test order is successful and profitable, it is necessary to continuously increase positions to improve the profit-loss ratio and compensate for the low win rate. Short-term traders rely on a high win rate combined with a low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits. Therefore, they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize profits. Of course, short-term traders have very strict stop-loss orders, which reduces the risk brought about by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut losses and allow profits to flow. To achieve this goal, certain principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never invest all your capital in the market. Especially in the beginner stage or when you are in a state of \"small profits and large losses\" for a long time, investing all your funds in the market will not only amplify the losses, but will also affect the trader's mentality to some extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to invest heavily if they have firm stop-loss orders and a reasonable profit-loss ratio, but it is essential to ensure that the same entry standard is used to open the same position; otherwise, there is a high risk of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>The awkward situation of holding a small position and holding a large position when losses occur.</p><p>2. It is normal for occasional consecutive losses to occur during trading. Position management must ensure that after consecutive losses, the remaining funds can be used to open the same number of positions. If this principle is not followed, it is very likely that a 100-lot order can be opened, but after several consecutive losses, only a 90-lot order can be opened. It will be more difficult for a 90-lot order to return the capital to its original level than a 100-lot order.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy for increasing or decreasing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical perspective, it is by no means a static model. In an ever-changing market, after a single entry, we may experience a market trend that prompts us to increase or decrease our positions. At this time, your win rate and profit-loss ratio also change, which requires your position management, including the content of increasing or decreasing positions.</p><p>Are there any general rules for specific position management that are precise down to numbers? For example, what percentage must be used to open a position? Under what circumstances should the position be increased or decreased? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this section, position management should be designed based on individual entry and exit criteria and psychological tolerance. This can only provide you with one approach. You need to complete your position management strategy based on your own relevant data.</p><p>So what data or reference points should be used to set your own position management strategy? I have compiled the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative. How much loss can you accept each time? What are the stop-loss points corresponding to these losses in your trading system? The acceptable loss amount is the amount of loss you can bear per point compared to the stop-loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you can open in a single trade compared to the price fluctuation per point.</p><p>2. The success rate of the trading method. Your position management must be determined in conjunction with the win rate that the trading method can provide. This is to ensure that your funds can survive the losses with a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of a transaction, also known as the profit-loss ratio. Win rate and profit-loss ratio are twins, as I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the combination of win rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" of trading, otherwise you will die a tragic death in the night before dawn before you even reach the dawn of your trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part; it is an integral part of the entire trading system. Above, we only discussed position management and related factors, but this does not mean that trading systems are the only ones. In a trading system, entry and exit strategies and position management complement each other and are indispensable.</p><p>III. Mindset Issues in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts introduced the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management, respectively. The next part is about the issue of awareness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, it will definitely not be possible to deal with them well in terms of mindset. If your position management has been inspired by the above section, or if you have already solved the previous problems, then the issue of mindset will be relatively easier.</p><p>There are essentially two mindsets that often arise in position management: when making money, I wish I could have gone all in back then; When I lost money, I wish I had tried with a small position back then. Of course, there will also be questions such as whether or not to increase your position. Let's add to our positions and take a gamble! Or should we reduce our positions? Forget it, I'll just hurry up and reduce my holdings and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best approach is to follow a pre-designed management model without any subjective factors. This sounds easy, but it's not that simple to actually do. So what should we do?</p><p>There are no shortcuts; the only way is to make the position management strategy and the other parts of the trading system that match it as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective imagination.</p><p>Note that this is not about making your trading system complicated, but rather telling everyone to make the simplest possible trading system as fixed and detailed as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on a range, then turn this range into a definite value, or try to compress the range of the range to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your mind with rules.</p><p>However, rules still need to be enforced through discipline, so it is essential to abide by established rules, even if it means using your own reward and punishment mechanisms.</p><p>That concludes our discussion on position management. We hope you have gained some insights into position management, which will undoubtedly be beneficial to your trading journey. Finally, I hope everyone has a smooth trading experience, taking advantage of both price</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders enter the market and experience a phase of \"small profits and large losses.\" The capital curve during this phase also shows slight rises and sharp falls, and some even fall all the way down without any signs of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How can we break the strange phenomenon of funds being completely depleted in the midst of \"small profits and big losses\"? Perhaps this can offer you some insights from the perspective of position management. Position management is often broadly referred to as \"money management.\" Although this term is not precise, it is often universally applicable within the trading community. So what exactly is position management? As the name suggests, it's about managing your positions. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the full position is the so-called position ratio. According to Baidu Baike, this is defined as: in a risk market, risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of capital invested in a single transaction.</p><p>Through the above explanation, you should now have a relatively accurate understanding of \"position management.\" Below, we will discuss...<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mindset issues in position management.</b>This paper explains how to solve the problem of \"small profits and large losses\" from three aspects.</p><p>I. The Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The prerequisite for studying position management must be consistent trading methods and the fixed use of one or more combinations to participate in the market; otherwise, position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is simple: just like in poker, the criteria for folding and raising should be the same every time. Otherwise, who can say for sure whether you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a large bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what the market will be like at some point in the future, or what price it will represent. Even if someone does it in the short term, it will definitely be a mistake. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict market trends when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market becomes obvious to us. Since the market is never predictable, do you still have any reason to use all your funds for position holding?</p><p>At this point, you might ask, how can you make enough profits without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of pursuing profit, while at the same time untying the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the beginner stage, unrestrained investment without a guaranteed win rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to lose money.</p><p>Position management is a risk prevention measure, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful veterans often tell us that we can only invest heavily under fairly certain circumstances, and even then, this is based on preparing for stop-loss orders in advance. After all, survival is the key to profiting in the market.</p><p>This shows that position management is essential in market competition. It's never a bad idea to invest smaller positions before you can properly interpret market signals and establish a sound trading system. While it can't temporarily help you escape \"small profits,\" combined with stop-loss position management, it can at least help you stop \"large losses.\" This is a symbolic victory in the entire trading process: your funds will finally stop flowing out in large quantities.</p><p>II. How to manage positions?</p><p>If the aforementioned are so-called \"worldviews,\" then in this section we will explore the \"methodology\" of position management. First, there's one thing everyone needs to understand: position control doesn't solve the problem of low winning rates; it only slows down traders' deaths so they have enough time and opportunity to capture their own wave of market opportunities. Therefore, position management cannot be discussed in isolation, but should be considered in conjunction with each person's trading time period, psychological tolerance, and entry and exit criteria.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high win rate, but their profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict position control when engaging in trend trading to reduce the cost of test orders. Once a test order is successful and profitable, it is necessary to continuously increase positions to improve the profit-loss ratio and compensate for the low win rate. Short-term traders rely on a high win rate combined with a low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits. Therefore, they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize profits. Of course, short-term traders have very strict stop-loss orders, which reduces the risk brought about by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut losses and allow profits to flow. To achieve this goal, certain principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never invest all your capital in the market. Especially in the beginner stage or when you are in a state of \"small profits and large losses\" for a long time, investing all your funds in the market will not only amplify the losses, but will also affect the trader's mentality to some extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to invest heavily if they have firm stop-loss orders and a reasonable profit-loss ratio, but it is essential to ensure that the same entry standard is used to open the same position; otherwise, there is a high risk of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>The awkward situation of holding a small position and holding a large position when losses occur.</p><p>2. It is normal for occasional consecutive losses to occur during trading. Position management must ensure that after consecutive losses, the remaining funds can be used to open the same number of positions. If this principle is not followed, it is very likely that a 100-lot order can be opened, but after several consecutive losses, only a 90-lot order can be opened. It will be more difficult for a 90-lot order to return the capital to its original level than a 100-lot order.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy for increasing or decreasing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical perspective, it is by no means a static model. In an ever-changing market, after a single entry, we may experience a market trend that prompts us to increase or decrease our positions. At this time, your win rate and profit-loss ratio also change, which requires your position management, including the content of increasing or decreasing positions.</p><p>Are there any general rules for specific position management that are precise down to numbers? For example, what percentage must be used to open a position? Under what circumstances should the position be increased or decreased? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this section, position management should be designed based on individual entry and exit criteria and psychological tolerance. This can only provide you with one approach. You need to complete your position management strategy based on your own relevant data.</p><p>So what data or reference points should be used to set your own position management strategy? I have compiled the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative. How much loss can you accept each time? What are the stop-loss points corresponding to these losses in your trading system? The acceptable loss amount is the amount of loss you can bear per point compared to the stop-loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you can open in a single trade compared to the price fluctuation per point.</p><p>2. The success rate of the trading method. Your position management must be determined in conjunction with the win rate that the trading method can provide. This is to ensure that your funds can survive the losses with a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of a transaction, also known as the profit-loss ratio. Win rate and profit-loss ratio are twins, as I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the combination of win rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" of trading, otherwise you will die a tragic death in the night before dawn before you even reach the dawn of your trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part; it is an integral part of the entire trading system. Above, we only discussed position management and related factors, but this does not mean that trading systems are the only ones. In a trading system, entry and exit strategies and position management complement each other and are indispensable.</p><p>III. Mindset Issues in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts introduced the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management, respectively. The next part is about the issue of awareness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, it will definitely not be possible to deal with them well in terms of mindset. If your position management has been inspired by the above section, or if you have already solved the previous problems, then the issue of mindset will be relatively easier.</p><p>There are essentially two mindsets that often arise in position management: when making money, I wish I could have gone all in back then; When I lost money, I wish I had tried with a small position back then. Of course, there will also be questions such as whether or not to increase your position. Let's add to our positions and take a gamble! Or should we reduce our positions? Forget it, I'll just hurry up and reduce my holdings and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best approach is to follow a pre-designed management model without any subjective factors. This sounds easy, but it's not that simple to actually do. So what should we do?</p><p>There are no shortcuts; the only way is to make the position management strategy and the other parts of the trading system that match it as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective imagination.</p><p>Note that this is not about making your trading system complicated, but rather telling everyone to make the simplest possible trading system as fixed and detailed as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on a range, then turn this range into a definite value, or try to compress the range of the range to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your mind with rules.</p><p>However, rules still need to be enforced through discipline, so it is essential to abide by established rules, even if it means using your own reward and punishment mechanisms.</p><p>That concludes our discussion on position management. We hope you have gained some insights into position management, which will undoubtedly be beneficial to your trading journey. Finally, I hope everyone has a smooth trading experience, taking advantage of both price</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American company in 1995.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Oaktree Capital now manages $100 billion in assets. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memos\" for investors since the 1990s. In his January 2000 investment memo, he predicted the bursting of the tech stock bubble, and his \"investment memos\" became required reading on Wall Street.</p><p>“The first email I open and read is Howard Marks’ memo. I always learn something from it. His books are especially true,” Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he highly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing About Investing,\" and says he has read it twice.</p><p>This article is a brilliant speech by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"Investing Most Important\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad you're here to hear me talk about my books, my investment philosophy, and how we manage our money.</p><p>I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe is essential in investing. Today, I would also like to talk to you about how the investment philosophy behind this book came about and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made up of uncertainty.</b></p><p>We need to recognize that the world is a world full of uncertainty in order to understand how to cope with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, believe that you are right and use this as a basis for action, you are definitely asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you could end up very badly.</p><p>As the humorous Mark Twain said, \"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, but what you think you know that you're wrong about.\" I believe that believing too much in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world.</b></p><p>Basing your investments on predictions about the future is a very dangerous thing. My predictions don't have to be much better than others', after all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macroeconomy. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well under various macroeconomic conditions in order to control risk. Only by knowing our ignorance can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. My understanding of the world's development is often controlled by random events.</b></p><p>We cannot say for sure what the future will be; the future is made up of random events that may occur. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when those events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave safe space to cope with uncertainty.</b></p><p>It can be said that I have been successful in my career because I have studied what might happen in the future, but I do not think it will definitely happen, leaving room for uncertainty and variable factors, and preparing for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is precisely what most people think will never happen.</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good interpretation is that \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (as Eloi Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk exists in the current market and most investors believe it will occur, then it is not a risk. If most investors believe that something will not happen in the future, then that is where the risk lies.</p><p>However, the truth is that we never know if something will happen. From this perspective, we must strive to understand the future and its possibilities, but we should never assume that we have completely figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. Not having a particularly bad record is better than being inconsistent.</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big influence on me. Simon said there are two kinds of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One type is a loser's match.</p><p>The winning matches were played by professional players like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, and Sampras. Winners of tennis championships are highly skilled and have consummate skills, so they don't have to worry about tennis ball rebounds, wind speeds, blinding sunlight, or lack of skill. They can fight however they want, they can do whatever they want.</p><p>A winner's game belongs to the winner. The opponent can't catch the ball that the winner hits. To win a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that winners can only hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding playing like a loser.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and sometimes they can't even catch simple balls. Our goal is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, the opponent may only be able to do it nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by playing well, we win by not playing badly.</p><p>When I read this article and applied this concept to investing, I had a sudden enlightenment. We live in an uncertain world, and it's difficult to always make successful investments. Those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that, for me, the best way to achieve long-term success in investing is perhaps to avoid mistakes, to avoid making wrong investments, and to avoid bad years. As long as you make well-accumulated investments and achieve steady performance year after year, over twenty, thirty, forty, and fifty years, this will lead to a successful investment career.</p><p>The key is that it's impossible to be right every time. It's hard to know what the future holds. It's difficult to hit a good shot or make a great investment and succeed overnight. But as long as we avoid failure, we will be on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts.</b></p><p>Macroeconomic forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, markets, and interest rates will change in the future; it studies the overall situation. These things are, firstly, difficult to understand, and secondly, difficult to understand better than others.</p><p>For someone like me to predict what the world economy, the US economy, the Chinese economy, interest rates, or the Chinese A-share market will be like next year, what advantages do I have compared to others? These things are difficult to understand better than what others have studied. We achieve better investment results because we understand things better than others.</p><p>Oaktree Capital's investments are not based on future macroeconomic projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest</b></p><p>First, you need to consider what kind of investment results will emerge in the future. When building a portfolio, it must be at least OK, meaning it remains viable in any possible scenario, before investing.</p><p>Second, strive to control risks. The risk is to avoid getting out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume we understand macroeconomics, but we should certainly know more about the microeconomy. What is microscopic? It refers to companies, industries, and securities. On these specific, smaller task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Cheap Goods</b></p><p>When I first started working at Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Beautiful Fifty,\" which were the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>Furthermore, some of these companies were highly anticipated but ultimately failed, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take photos with film these days, and few use instant cameras either, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but back in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing they would always be so perfect, and never imagined they would disappear. The key point is that even if you buy a very good company, you may lose a lot of money.</p><p>One lesson we can learn from this is that good companies and good investments are not the same thing. Buying good companies can make you lose a lot of money, while buying bad companies can make you make a lot of money. This tells us that it is certainly not the quality of the company that determines the return on investment.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? It is the purchase price. If the company's prices are high, you may lose money. You may make money, or even make money safely, if the lower-quality companies are cheap. This is very important in shaping my investment philosophy.</p><p>I realize that what matters is not what you buy, but how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise create, the foolish imitate.</b></p><p>In investing, every trend eventually leads to extremes.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 2000 points, those who invested in A-shares did the right thing. But later, as the stock rose, others were attracted, and they bought more and more, becoming more and more excited, and even using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 points later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right time and price, you can safely achieve good returns. If you act at the end of the trend, regardless of timing and price, you may run into big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that someone who is six feet tall can drown in a river that is on average five feet deep.</b></p><p>When we invest, we can't just pursue average survival; we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, the portfolio we build must be able to withstand the worst tests. We must manage our investments professionally, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live, and when things are good, survival isn't difficult. At that time, everyone is actually doing very well. The hard part is who gets through the tough times. Those people whose portfolios are too aggressive, those who are too leveraged, can't survive the tough times, and those who are six feet tall drown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It's difficult to distinguish between being much earlier than others or making a mistake.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing is about the future. In the investment field, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we do the right thing, our timing may not be quite right.</p><p>We're probably too early, and if we're too late, we could be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it seems like you're doing something wrong.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems they were wrong, and they themselves feel they were wrong. They may regret leaving the market at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They felt they were wrong, but they were right, it was just too early. Our timing can never be perfect. You must have courage and conviction, and if there are good reasons for what you do, the facts will ultimately prove that your actions were rational.</p><p>I must have courage myself. I buy things whose prices are falling because they're cheap, because they've fallen, and because I like them, I buy them. It will continue to fall. I have to be very confident and believe that I am right. We can't sell just because the price continues to fall. Therefore, you must remember that before the facts ultimately prove you right, it is difficult to distinguish whether you were much earlier than others or whether you were wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of an asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is it about making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We don't agree with any of this. The first job of an asset manager is to control risk. At Oaktree Asset Management, we place risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks or bonds. Instead, we discover less popular corporate bonds, convertible securities, distressed bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly traded stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance will not rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle because of our outstanding risk control, and we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We achieve average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough. However, our clients want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: in a bull market we get average returns, and in a bear market we get excess returns.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our results will be less volatile than average. Our overall above-average returns are due to our outstanding performance in a bear market, which allowed us to achieve this goal. This is indeed very necessary, as it makes our clients happy.</p><p>I believe this is the secret to our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of $100 billion, from $3.5 billion in 2006 to $100 billion today. We really started our asset management business in 2007. 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least $10 billion in funding in 2007 because our performance is better than average during a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and has the ability to deliver consistent and stable investment results. We grew up!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>We believe that it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage and make money in the part of the market that people can understand; However, you can do relatively well in those markets that people usually don't understand, such as bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure construction, real estate, emerging markets... It's relatively easier to gain an investment advantage in these projects, but not so easy either. It's just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I do not believe that macroeconomic forecasts are feasible. I believe that macro forecasting is not a necessary condition for successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, did not succeed because they did a better job of macro forecasting than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>Finally, we do not speculate on market fluctuations.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going to rise, or take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to make mistakes predicting price fluctuations like We enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the level of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments. Take baseball as an example; it does not come from hitting an occasional home run. An investor's long-term success stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment results over decades. This is our goal, and I think we have achieved it. This is what I want to share with you.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investing needs to be done step by step. Once you feel good, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make things worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to invest a very small percentage (less than 5%) in your portfolio in areas you are optimistic about, because an investment that is too small will have little effect on your portfolio regardless of its performance and is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand them at all, don't do them.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American company in 1995.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Oaktree Capital now manages $100 billion in assets. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memos\" for investors since the 1990s. In his January 2000 investment memo, he predicted the bursting of the tech stock bubble, and his \"investment memos\" became required reading on Wall Street.</p><p>“The first email I open and read is Howard Marks’ memo. I always learn something from it. His books are especially true,” Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he highly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing About Investing,\" and says he has read it twice.</p><p>This article is a brilliant speech by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"Investing Most Important\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad you're here to hear me talk about my books, my investment philosophy, and how we manage our money.</p><p>I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe is essential in investing. Today, I would also like to talk to you about how the investment philosophy behind this book came about and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made up of uncertainty.</b></p><p>We need to recognize that the world is a world full of uncertainty in order to understand how to cope with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, believe that you are right and use this as a basis for action, you are definitely asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you could end up very badly.</p><p>As the humorous Mark Twain said, \"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, but what you think you know that you're wrong about.\" I believe that believing too much in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world.</b></p><p>Basing your investments on predictions about the future is a very dangerous thing. My predictions don't have to be much better than others', after all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macroeconomy. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well under various macroeconomic conditions in order to control risk. Only by knowing our ignorance can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. My understanding of the world's development is often controlled by random events.</b></p><p>We cannot say for sure what the future will be; the future is made up of random events that may occur. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when those events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave safe space to cope with uncertainty.</b></p><p>It can be said that I have been successful in my career because I have studied what might happen in the future, but I do not think it will definitely happen, leaving room for uncertainty and variable factors, and preparing for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is precisely what most people think will never happen.</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good interpretation is that \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (as Eloi Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk exists in the current market and most investors believe it will occur, then it is not a risk. If most investors believe that something will not happen in the future, then that is where the risk lies.</p><p>However, the truth is that we never know if something will happen. From this perspective, we must strive to understand the future and its possibilities, but we should never assume that we have completely figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. Not having a particularly bad record is better than being inconsistent.</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big influence on me. Simon said there are two kinds of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One type is a loser's match.</p><p>The winning matches were played by professional players like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, and Sampras. Winners of tennis championships are highly skilled and have consummate skills, so they don't have to worry about tennis ball rebounds, wind speeds, blinding sunlight, or lack of skill. They can fight however they want, they can do whatever they want.</p><p>A winner's game belongs to the winner. The opponent can't catch the ball that the winner hits. To win a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that winners can only hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding playing like a loser.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and sometimes they can't even catch simple balls. Our goal is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, the opponent may only be able to do it nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by playing well, we win by not playing badly.</p><p>When I read this article and applied this concept to investing, I had a sudden enlightenment. We live in an uncertain world, and it's difficult to always make successful investments. Those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that, for me, the best way to achieve long-term success in investing is perhaps to avoid mistakes, to avoid making wrong investments, and to avoid bad years. As long as you make well-accumulated investments and achieve steady performance year after year, over twenty, thirty, forty, and fifty years, this will lead to a successful investment career.</p><p>The key is that it's impossible to be right every time. It's hard to know what the future holds. It's difficult to hit a good shot or make a great investment and succeed overnight. But as long as we avoid failure, we will be on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts.</b></p><p>Macroeconomic forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, markets, and interest rates will change in the future; it studies the overall situation. These things are, firstly, difficult to understand, and secondly, difficult to understand better than others.</p><p>For someone like me to predict what the world economy, the US economy, the Chinese economy, interest rates, or the Chinese A-share market will be like next year, what advantages do I have compared to others? These things are difficult to understand better than what others have studied. We achieve better investment results because we understand things better than others.</p><p>Oaktree Capital's investments are not based on future macroeconomic projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest</b></p><p>First, you need to consider what kind of investment results will emerge in the future. When building a portfolio, it must be at least OK, meaning it remains viable in any possible scenario, before investing.</p><p>Second, strive to control risks. The risk is to avoid getting out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume we understand macroeconomics, but we should certainly know more about the microeconomy. What is microscopic? It refers to companies, industries, and securities. On these specific, smaller task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Cheap Goods</b></p><p>When I first started working at Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Beautiful Fifty,\" which were the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>Furthermore, some of these companies were highly anticipated but ultimately failed, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take photos with film these days, and few use instant cameras either, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but back in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing they would always be so perfect, and never imagined they would disappear. The key point is that even if you buy a very good company, you may lose a lot of money.</p><p>One lesson we can learn from this is that good companies and good investments are not the same thing. Buying good companies can make you lose a lot of money, while buying bad companies can make you make a lot of money. This tells us that it is certainly not the quality of the company that determines the return on investment.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? It is the purchase price. If the company's prices are high, you may lose money. You may make money, or even make money safely, if the lower-quality companies are cheap. This is very important in shaping my investment philosophy.</p><p>I realize that what matters is not what you buy, but how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise create, the foolish imitate.</b></p><p>In investing, every trend eventually leads to extremes.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 2000 points, those who invested in A-shares did the right thing. But later, as the stock rose, others were attracted, and they bought more and more, becoming more and more excited, and even using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 points later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right time and price, you can safely achieve good returns. If you act at the end of the trend, regardless of timing and price, you may run into big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that someone who is six feet tall can drown in a river that is on average five feet deep.</b></p><p>When we invest, we can't just pursue average survival; we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, the portfolio we build must be able to withstand the worst tests. We must manage our investments professionally, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live, and when things are good, survival isn't difficult. At that time, everyone is actually doing very well. The hard part is who gets through the tough times. Those people whose portfolios are too aggressive, those who are too leveraged, can't survive the tough times, and those who are six feet tall drown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It's difficult to distinguish between being much earlier than others or making a mistake.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing is about the future. In the investment field, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we do the right thing, our timing may not be quite right.</p><p>We're probably too early, and if we're too late, we could be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it seems like you're doing something wrong.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems they were wrong, and they themselves feel they were wrong. They may regret leaving the market at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They felt they were wrong, but they were right, it was just too early. Our timing can never be perfect. You must have courage and conviction, and if there are good reasons for what you do, the facts will ultimately prove that your actions were rational.</p><p>I must have courage myself. I buy things whose prices are falling because they're cheap, because they've fallen, and because I like them, I buy them. It will continue to fall. I have to be very confident and believe that I am right. We can't sell just because the price continues to fall. Therefore, you must remember that before the facts ultimately prove you right, it is difficult to distinguish whether you were much earlier than others or whether you were wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of an asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is it about making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We don't agree with any of this. The first job of an asset manager is to control risk. At Oaktree Asset Management, we place risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks or bonds. Instead, we discover less popular corporate bonds, convertible securities, distressed bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly traded stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance will not rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle because of our outstanding risk control, and we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We achieve average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough. However, our clients want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: in a bull market we get average returns, and in a bear market we get excess returns.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our results will be less volatile than average. Our overall above-average returns are due to our outstanding performance in a bear market, which allowed us to achieve this goal. This is indeed very necessary, as it makes our clients happy.</p><p>I believe this is the secret to our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of $100 billion, from $3.5 billion in 2006 to $100 billion today. We really started our asset management business in 2007. 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least $10 billion in funding in 2007 because our performance is better than average during a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and has the ability to deliver consistent and stable investment results. We grew up!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>We believe that it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage and make money in the part of the market that people can understand; However, you can do relatively well in those markets that people usually don't understand, such as bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure construction, real estate, emerging markets... It's relatively easier to gain an investment advantage in these projects, but not so easy either. It's just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I do not believe that macroeconomic forecasts are feasible. I believe that macro forecasting is not a necessary condition for successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, did not succeed because they did a better job of macro forecasting than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>Finally, we do not speculate on market fluctuations.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going to rise, or take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to make mistakes predicting price fluctuations like We enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the level of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments. Take baseball as an example; it does not come from hitting an occasional home run. An investor's long-term success stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment results over decades. This is our goal, and I think we have achieved it. This is what I want to share with you.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investing needs to be done step by step. Once you feel good, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make things worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to invest a very small percentage (less than 5%) in your portfolio in areas you are optimistic about, because an investment that is too small will have little effect on your portfolio regardless of its performance and is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand them at all, don't do them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097661560","repostId":"1179897507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179897507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1645423968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179897507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>The market has experienced a significant correction during this period, which has led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus approach pullback/retracement? Today I'm sharing an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement, translated by my friend Huang Yun, a very excellent fund manager, in 2019. Even today, it would still be particularly fitting. This also shows that no matter how excellent a company is, it will experience huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>This chapter describes a somewhat harsh reality in the market: both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience significant downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are currently in. How to calmly cope with market losses is quite difficult for any investor, because we not only have to consider the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. These two demands are also contradictory in some extremely downturned market environments. Perhaps we, as investors, have the ability to absorb market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience provides us with valuable lessons on how to truly possess patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and are in adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>- Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>These are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyles, and if their shareholders can hold their stocks for the long term, these shareholders will also reap huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to achieve huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial public offering in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual return of 35.5%. This means that the initial $1,000 investment will become $387,000 today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years should not be underestimated. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initially assumed $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, resulting in a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is said that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner is not actually simple. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon will change the world,\" but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound return of 38% since its IPO in May 2002. However, achieving this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can bear. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, with a drop of more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Can investors really endure their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? In particular, the 500% return vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three companies, with an annual compound return of 25% since its IPO in 2004. He provides investors with a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's stock price has only fallen by more than 50% once, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. When his stock price pullback/retracement sharply, many investments could not tolerate this period. In those 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market capitalization at the time was less than $153 billion. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which deprived many investors of the opportunity to earn a 515% return over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, or Google. However, the companies he invested in over a long period of time that yielded huge investment returns also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The vice chairman of Hathaway is known as a long-time partner of Warren Buffett. His famous quotes, rich in wisdom and philosophy, are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about problems from multiple perspectives using different ways of thinking. One of his famous quotes is, \"If I knew where I would die, I would never go there.\" At the 2002 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, he said, \"People calculate too much and think too little.\"</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he is never attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets: entry, exit, and too difficult.\" Investors should follow his advice: \"If an investment target is too difficult to analyze, we move on to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\"</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products on the market that serve investors, which are like purple and green bait: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation between me and the fishing gear owner. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Will the fish really take the bait because of them?\" He said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish.\"</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pursue a legal career. In his early investing career, Munger made his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His passion for investing was fully ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis, one of Buffett's first investors, introduced him to Buffett. Buffett was surprised that he easily obtained Ed Davis's $100,000, because Davis didn't seem to care much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor whom Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two are so similar that Davis once wrote Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off instantly. After years of communication, mutual learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger founded a law firm with other partners in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is outstanding. From 1962 to 1969, the fund achieved an incredible average annual return of 37.1% before fees. Especially when you consider the market environment at the time, this achievement is truly remarkable. Over the past eight years, picking stocks has not been an easy task. In fact, the S&P 500 (including Dividend) rose only 6.6% during the same period. Over the 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound annual return of 19.82%, far exceeding the index, while the S&P 500 (including Dividend) had a compound annual return of only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners would also reap substantial rewards if they could persevere alongside him; however, this is not as easy as maintaining their holdings in Amazon.</p><p>The best lesson investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often involves significant short-term losses. If you cannot accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. As Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you cannot cope with two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century, you are not suited to investing and will only receive relatively mediocre investment returns compared to those investors who can rationally handle market volatility.</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater fluctuations in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated mental structure.\" Of course, Munger is not just focused; his focus is on diversified thinking based on a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. During the worst bear market since the Great Depression, the company inflicted severe damage on Munger's portfolio. Blue Chip Printing's sales exceeded $124 million that year. However, sales soon began to decline, plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing, I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure.\"</p><p>However, Blue Chip Print, as an important asset for the fund's investments, later provided substantial funding for the acquisitions of Seesee Candy, the Buffalo Evening News, and Wesco Financial Corporation, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to -13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to -23.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but because of market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value,\" Munger said. \"It was a tough experience—1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone; for many great investors, it was a difficult process. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. In the bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500 fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, returning directly to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger starting January 1, 1973, would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger still lost its largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound return of 24.3% before fees throughout its entire life cycle, even during the brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall by more than 50%. Even indices with long-term compound growth may experience a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement exceeding 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell by more than 90% before returning to its 1929 high in 1955. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced two significant pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the tech bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, huge losses are inevitable if we are to seek high investment returns, regardless of the investment cycle, whether it is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said, \"We are keen to keep things simple.\" You can simplify everything you want, but that won't keep you away from losses. Even a 50/50 stock and bond portfolio lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. First, the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffered absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway holdings fell by more than 20% on six occasions. For those unfamiliar with it, pullback/retracement is simply a decline starting from a high point. In other words, there have been six instances where Berkshire Hathaway has fallen by more than 20% after hitting a record high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, namely your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire did not invest in them. This also made them pay a price. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. However, what's even more painful is that internet stocks continue to soar. During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 270%! In a 1999 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote, \"Relative returns are a concern for us, and over the same period, poor relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indices, poor relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance underperformed the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to grow at a compound annual rate over the past 55 years, in his own words, is:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We cannot play chess blindfolded or become pianists. But our achievements are remarkable because we have an advantage in temperament, which is more than enough to compensate for our lack of intelligence.</b></i></p><p>You must be able to cope with the loss. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has already fallen. If you invest this way, you may be destined not to get good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you'll be forced to sell. If you know that a stock has fallen by more than 50% in the past, and this will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't afford to lose more than $30,000. Assume that if the value of stocks decreases by half while the bonds will retain their value (this is absolutely an assumption, with no guarantees), then do not allocate more than 60% of your assets to stocks. That way, even if that 60% of your assets fall by half, you should still be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>The market has experienced a significant correction during this period, which has led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus approach pullback/retracement? Today I'm sharing an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement, translated by my friend Huang Yun, a very excellent fund manager, in 2019. Even today, it would still be particularly fitting. This also shows that no matter how excellent a company is, it will experience huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>This chapter describes a somewhat harsh reality in the market: both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience significant downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are currently in. How to calmly cope with market losses is quite difficult for any investor, because we not only have to consider the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. These two demands are also contradictory in some extremely downturned market environments. Perhaps we, as investors, have the ability to absorb market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience provides us with valuable lessons on how to truly possess patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and are in adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>- Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>These are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyles, and if their shareholders can hold their stocks for the long term, these shareholders will also reap huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to achieve huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial public offering in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual return of 35.5%. This means that the initial $1,000 investment will become $387,000 today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years should not be underestimated. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initially assumed $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, resulting in a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is said that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner is not actually simple. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon will change the world,\" but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound return of 38% since its IPO in May 2002. However, achieving this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can bear. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, with a drop of more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Can investors really endure their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? In particular, the 500% return vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three companies, with an annual compound return of 25% since its IPO in 2004. He provides investors with a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's stock price has only fallen by more than 50% once, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. When his stock price pullback/retracement sharply, many investments could not tolerate this period. In those 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market capitalization at the time was less than $153 billion. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which deprived many investors of the opportunity to earn a 515% return over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, or Google. However, the companies he invested in over a long period of time that yielded huge investment returns also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The vice chairman of Hathaway is known as a long-time partner of Warren Buffett. His famous quotes, rich in wisdom and philosophy, are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about problems from multiple perspectives using different ways of thinking. One of his famous quotes is, \"If I knew where I would die, I would never go there.\" At the 2002 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, he said, \"People calculate too much and think too little.\"</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he is never attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets: entry, exit, and too difficult.\" Investors should follow his advice: \"If an investment target is too difficult to analyze, we move on to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\"</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products on the market that serve investors, which are like purple and green bait: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation between me and the fishing gear owner. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Will the fish really take the bait because of them?\" He said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish.\"</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pursue a legal career. In his early investing career, Munger made his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His passion for investing was fully ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis, one of Buffett's first investors, introduced him to Buffett. Buffett was surprised that he easily obtained Ed Davis's $100,000, because Davis didn't seem to care much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor whom Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two are so similar that Davis once wrote Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off instantly. After years of communication, mutual learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger founded a law firm with other partners in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is outstanding. From 1962 to 1969, the fund achieved an incredible average annual return of 37.1% before fees. Especially when you consider the market environment at the time, this achievement is truly remarkable. Over the past eight years, picking stocks has not been an easy task. In fact, the S&P 500 (including Dividend) rose only 6.6% during the same period. Over the 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound annual return of 19.82%, far exceeding the index, while the S&P 500 (including Dividend) had a compound annual return of only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners would also reap substantial rewards if they could persevere alongside him; however, this is not as easy as maintaining their holdings in Amazon.</p><p>The best lesson investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often involves significant short-term losses. If you cannot accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. As Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you cannot cope with two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century, you are not suited to investing and will only receive relatively mediocre investment returns compared to those investors who can rationally handle market volatility.</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater fluctuations in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated mental structure.\" Of course, Munger is not just focused; his focus is on diversified thinking based on a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. During the worst bear market since the Great Depression, the company inflicted severe damage on Munger's portfolio. Blue Chip Printing's sales exceeded $124 million that year. However, sales soon began to decline, plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing, I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure.\"</p><p>However, Blue Chip Print, as an important asset for the fund's investments, later provided substantial funding for the acquisitions of Seesee Candy, the Buffalo Evening News, and Wesco Financial Corporation, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to -13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to -23.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but because of market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value,\" Munger said. \"It was a tough experience—1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone; for many great investors, it was a difficult process. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. In the bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500 fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, returning directly to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger starting January 1, 1973, would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger still lost its largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound return of 24.3% before fees throughout its entire life cycle, even during the brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall by more than 50%. Even indices with long-term compound growth may experience a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement exceeding 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell by more than 90% before returning to its 1929 high in 1955. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced two significant pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the tech bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, huge losses are inevitable if we are to seek high investment returns, regardless of the investment cycle, whether it is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said, \"We are keen to keep things simple.\" You can simplify everything you want, but that won't keep you away from losses. Even a 50/50 stock and bond portfolio lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. First, the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffered absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway holdings fell by more than 20% on six occasions. For those unfamiliar with it, pullback/retracement is simply a decline starting from a high point. In other words, there have been six instances where Berkshire Hathaway has fallen by more than 20% after hitting a record high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, namely your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire did not invest in them. This also made them pay a price. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. However, what's even more painful is that internet stocks continue to soar. During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 270%! In a 1999 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote, \"Relative returns are a concern for us, and over the same period, poor relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indices, poor relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance underperformed the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to grow at a compound annual rate over the past 55 years, in his own words, is:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We cannot play chess blindfolded or become pianists. But our achievements are remarkable because we have an advantage in temperament, which is more than enough to compensate for our lack of intelligence.</b></i></p><p>You must be able to cope with the loss. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has already fallen. If you invest this way, you may be destined not to get good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you'll be forced to sell. If you know that a stock has fallen by more than 50% in the past, and this will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't afford to lose more than $30,000. Assume that if the value of stocks decreases by half while the bonds will retain their value (this is absolutely an assumption, with no guarantees), then do not allocate more than 60% of your assets to stocks. That way, even if that 60% of your assets fall by half, you should still be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093209633,"gmtCreate":1643627498655,"gmtModify":1676533837591,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093209633","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":418177377399080,"gmtCreate":1743089988582,"gmtModify":1743089992555,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15dcc60417d517a8eab86e56f239a283","width":"1176","height":"2224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418177377399080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656924632,"gmtCreate":1683291733827,"gmtModify":1683291733827,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8552af8430cf7b919d81388b54f74153","width":"1620","height":"1884"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656924632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656066100,"gmtCreate":1683208654701,"gmtModify":1683208654701,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdaf831dd581026137ab50dd1af6b316","width":"2160","height":"1296"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656066100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947145515,"gmtCreate":1682726201638,"gmtModify":1682726206682,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell at May and run away","listText":"Sell at May and run away","text":"Sell at May and run away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's price policy affects short-term US Treasury bonds, while quantitative policy affects medium- to long-term US Treasury bonds. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced in the Federal Reserve's tightening of rate hike and even the end of rate hike, but the impact of shrinking balance sheet has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best possible combination: the US economy had not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds had fallen sharply; The coming months may see the worst-case scenario: the US economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>rate hike continues to slow down, and the market's dovish interpretation is somewhat inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased somewhat; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have already reacted to the rate hike, but the impact of monetary policy has been delayed and has not yet been fully manifested, requiring observation.<b>3）</b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would receive 25 basis points at this policy meeting, rate hike would receive 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin considering interest rate cuts in November and December. While acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed considerations such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future. At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Returning to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projects U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, compared to the published figure of 0.96%. The Federal Reserve's expected unemployment rate rebounded to 3.7% in December, compared to the actual 3.5%. As long as economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal.<b>2) However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. not experience negative economic growth. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations are emerging. 1) The \"devil\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It is evident that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, it will be more difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to further decline.</b>The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><b>The United States has seen its best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the coming months, we may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved. Based on this, our judgments on various asset classes are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year US Treasury yield has entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the inverted curve between long and short terms narrowed;<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have some negative impact on RMB-denominated assets, but the internal causes remain the core contradiction of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>rate hike continues to slow down, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve released a statement at its February policy meeting, raising the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stated that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $60 billion per month and MBS by $35 billion per month since September.</p><p><b>Based on Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve's continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased somewhat (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to the rate hike, but the lagged impact of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation, and financial development has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of expectation discrepancies.</b>Following the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, US Treasury yields fell significantly, US stocks surged, and gold also performed well. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on February 1, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in this policy meeting, rate hike by 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November and December. Following the statement, while acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed concerns such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention when to end the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future (if the data remains strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high). At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled pre-meeting market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will be subject to certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Federal Reserve began to slow down after the midterm elections. rate hike confirmed the view we have been emphasizing since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are a watershed moment in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy,\" and it can be seen that the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy carries certain political considerations. Looking ahead, the timing of interest rate cuts is likely to be the most critical time window for the economy and politics, rather than immediately releasing a rate cut signal right after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is about to end, the expectation gap is most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether it's a little more (rate hike) or a little less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In response to reporters' questions, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If US employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is a 25-basis-point rate hike release in March a foregone conclusion, but the market may even revise its expectations that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to shift to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Based on the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at an opportune time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, then the market's attention will subsequently turn to the impact of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What impact will the Fed's balance sheet reduction have? Has it been fully absorbed by the market? When does the US economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Let's get back to the economy itself: it exceeded expectations in the short term, but is approaching a recession.</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projected U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, but the final figure was 0.96%. The December economic outlook also expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, compared to 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Federal Reserve's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp downturn in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be somewhat excessive.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report on December 28, 2022, \"The Resilience of the US Economy and Its Implications for China After Opening Up,\" that in the past two years, against the backdrop of labor shortages, low- and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the pandemic were more likely to obtain high-paying jobs after the pandemic, thereby enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. However, this does not prevent the U.S. economy from impending a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has experienced eight rapid declines from its highs, with eight peaks occurring in Q4 1974, Q2 1981, Q4 1990, Q3 2001, Q3 2008, Q3 2011, and Q2 2022. Previously, the U.S. composite average cost index for businesses peaked and then fell rapidly. Only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. experience negative economic growth; the U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the other six times. This reflects that a slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike’s efforts to suppress inflation. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination is emerging.</b></p><p><b>The \"demon\" hidden in the details: M2 turning negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline in inflation, is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>Concerns about high inflation in the United States emerged in the market in the second half of 2020. The main logic was that M2 saw a rare double-digit year-on-year growth, with M2 growing by as much as 26.9% year-on-year in February 2021, the highest since data became available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the US CPI rose rapidly and sharply from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, like a runaway horse, reaching a high of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, U.S. M2 growth fell to -1.3% year-on-year, marking the first time it has turned negative since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of US M2 after the pandemic fueled inflation, then a negative year-on-year turn in M2 theoretically means that US inflation may fall more rapidly and significantly than expected. This conclusion supports the Federal Reserve in quickly ending its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the figure below, each major shock to the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet exacerbates year-on-year fluctuations in M2. The decline in year-on-year M2 growth from its peak in March 2021 coincided with the inflection point of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the sharp drop in year-on-year M2 growth in the United States, while the turn of year-on-year M2 growth to negative growth, was most likely a result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's price-based instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 2 years and below, while quantitative instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and above. Currently, it seems increasingly difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, given the increasing risks of both economic recession and downside inflation, the central level of the 10-year US Treasury yield should further decline, approaching 3% or even lower. However, supply and demand relationships may counter this trend. First, the Federal Reserve's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect short-term US Treasury yields more than they directly affect long-term yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term US Treasury yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, factors driving demand for long-term US Treasury bonds also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing their holdings of US Treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 4.25% in 2022, significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this was not driven by Fed rate hike, but rather by a combination of economic factors (including high inflation), Fed shrinking balance sheet, and reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>This shows that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>IV. The final decline in US stocks may be about to begin.</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we kept saying that the US stock market would experience a final drop triggered by a decline in earnings, but it never happened. The reason is that the US economy still remains resilient and the market had already taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in US stocks in the past quarter reflects that \"the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply.\" As a result, the 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a historical high of 29.92 times. If, as we predict, the US financial market environment faces the worst-case scenario in the next 1-2 quarters: \"the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is constrained by factors such as the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, making it difficult for the center to move further downwards,\" then US stocks are bound to begin their final decline to kill earnings.</p><p>Based on this, our assessment of various asset classes in the coming months is as follows:<b>1）</b>Long-term US Treasury yields have entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>Short-term US Treasury yields continued to decline, and the inversion between long and short-term yields narrowed.<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the US economic and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe surge in US stocks hides a \"devil\"! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's price policy affects short-term US Treasury bonds, while quantitative policy affects medium- to long-term US Treasury bonds. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced in the Federal Reserve's tightening of rate hike and even the end of rate hike, but the impact of shrinking balance sheet has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best possible combination: the US economy had not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds had fallen sharply; The coming months may see the worst-case scenario: the US economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>rate hike continues to slow down, and the market's dovish interpretation is somewhat inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased somewhat; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have already reacted to the rate hike, but the impact of monetary policy has been delayed and has not yet been fully manifested, requiring observation.<b>3）</b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would receive 25 basis points at this policy meeting, rate hike would receive 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin considering interest rate cuts in November and December. While acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed considerations such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future. At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Returning to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projects U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, compared to the published figure of 0.96%. The Federal Reserve's expected unemployment rate rebounded to 3.7% in December, compared to the actual 3.5%. As long as economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal.<b>2) However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. not experience negative economic growth. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations are emerging. 1) The \"devil\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It is evident that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, it will be more difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to further decline.</b>The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><b>The United States has seen its best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the coming months, we may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved. Based on this, our judgments on various asset classes are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year US Treasury yield has entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the inverted curve between long and short terms narrowed;<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have some negative impact on RMB-denominated assets, but the internal causes remain the core contradiction of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>rate hike continues to slow down, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, maintaining its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve released a statement at its February policy meeting, raising the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stated that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $60 billion per month and MBS by $35 billion per month since September.</p><p><b>Based on Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve's continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased somewhat (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to the rate hike, but the lagged impact of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation, and financial development has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of expectation discrepancies.</b>Following the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, US Treasury yields fell significantly, US stocks surged, and gold also performed well. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's actions did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on February 1, the market's expectations for the Fed's operations were that rate hike would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in this policy meeting, rate hike by 25 basis points in March, and then rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November and December. Following the statement, while acknowledging the slowdown in inflation, Powell also expressed concerns such as still high inflation and the resilience of the job market. He did not mention when to end the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one more rate hike in the future (if the data remains strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high). At most, this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting fulfilled pre-meeting market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will be subject to certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Federal Reserve began to slow down after the midterm elections. rate hike confirmed the view we have been emphasizing since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are a watershed moment in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy,\" and it can be seen that the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy carries certain political considerations. Looking ahead, the timing of interest rate cuts is likely to be the most critical time window for the economy and politics, rather than immediately releasing a rate cut signal right after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is about to end, the expectation gap is most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether it's a little more (rate hike) or a little less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In response to reporters' questions, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If US employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is a 25-basis-point rate hike release in March a foregone conclusion, but the market may even revise its expectations that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to shift to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Based on the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at an opportune time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, then the market's attention will subsequently turn to the impact of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What impact will the Fed's balance sheet reduction have? Has it been fully absorbed by the market? When does the US economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Let's get back to the economy itself: it exceeded expectations in the short term, but is approaching a recession.</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Federal Reserve's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook projected U.S. real GDP growth of 0.50% year-on-year in Q4 2022, but the final figure was 0.96%. The December economic outlook also expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, compared to 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Federal Reserve's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp downturn in the short term, the Federal Reserve does not need to give a more accommodative signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be somewhat excessive.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, with corporate costs plummeting and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion/contraction threshold, a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report on December 28, 2022, \"The Resilience of the US Economy and Its Implications for China After Opening Up,\" that in the past two years, against the backdrop of labor shortages, low- and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the pandemic were more likely to obtain high-paying jobs after the pandemic, thereby enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. However, this does not prevent the U.S. economy from impending a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the U.S. corporate composite average cost index. Since the 1970s, the index has experienced eight rapid declines from its highs, with eight peaks occurring in Q4 1974, Q2 1981, Q4 1990, Q3 2001, Q3 2008, Q3 2011, and Q2 2022. Previously, the U.S. composite average cost index for businesses peaked and then fell rapidly. Only after Q3 2011 did the U.S. experience negative economic growth; the U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the other six times. This reflects that a slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike’s efforts to suppress inflation. After peaking in Q2 2022, this indicator fell rapidly in Q3-Q4 2022, indicating that aggregate demand in the United States has begun to slow down. Furthermore, since the late 1990s, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the expansion/contraction threshold during economic recessions. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also foreshadows the risk of a recession in the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination is emerging.</b></p><p><b>The \"demon\" hidden in the details: M2 turning negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline in inflation, is also a result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>Concerns about high inflation in the United States emerged in the market in the second half of 2020. The main logic was that M2 saw a rare double-digit year-on-year growth, with M2 growing by as much as 26.9% year-on-year in February 2021, the highest since data became available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the US CPI rose rapidly and sharply from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, like a runaway horse, reaching a high of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, U.S. M2 growth fell to -1.3% year-on-year, marking the first time it has turned negative since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of US M2 after the pandemic fueled inflation, then a negative year-on-year turn in M2 theoretically means that US inflation may fall more rapidly and significantly than expected. This conclusion supports the Federal Reserve in quickly ending its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the figure below, each major shock to the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet exacerbates year-on-year fluctuations in M2. The decline in year-on-year M2 growth from its peak in March 2021 coincided with the inflection point of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the sharp drop in year-on-year M2 growth in the United States, while the turn of year-on-year M2 growth to negative growth, was most likely a result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has already influenced economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivatives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's price-based instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 2 years and below, while quantitative instruments affect the yield on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and above. Currently, it seems increasingly difficult for the center of the 10-year US Treasury yield to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, given the increasing risks of both economic recession and downside inflation, the central level of the 10-year US Treasury yield should further decline, approaching 3% or even lower. However, supply and demand relationships may counter this trend. First, the Federal Reserve's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect short-term US Treasury yields more than they directly affect long-term yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term US Treasury yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, factors driving demand for long-term US Treasury bonds also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing their holdings of US Treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 4.25% in 2022, significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this was not driven by Fed rate hike, but rather by a combination of economic factors (including high inflation), Fed shrinking balance sheet, and reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.25% to 3.39% over the past three months indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks' reduction of their holdings of US Treasury bonds and the future increase in the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term US Treasury bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year US Treasury yield to recover during an economic recession, the continued reduction of US Treasury holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has left little room for further decline in the 10-year Treasury yield for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>This shows that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst-case scenario: the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains unmoved.</b></p><p><b>IV. The final decline in US stocks may be about to begin.</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we kept saying that the US stock market would experience a final drop triggered by a decline in earnings, but it never happened. The reason is that the US economy still remains resilient and the market had already taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in US stocks in the past quarter reflects that \"the economy has not yet receded and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen sharply.\" As a result, the 10-year Shiller cycle adjustment P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a historical high of 29.92 times. If, as we predict, the US financial market environment faces the worst-case scenario in the next 1-2 quarters: \"the economy begins to recess, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is constrained by factors such as the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, making it difficult for the center to move further downwards,\" then US stocks are bound to begin their final decline to kill earnings.</p><p>Based on this, our assessment of various asset classes in the coming months is as follows:<b>1）</b>Long-term US Treasury yields have entered a period of volatility, with the fluctuation range potentially between 3.2 and 3.5%.<b>2）</b>Short-term US Treasury yields continued to decline, and the inversion between long and short-term yields narrowed.<b>3）</b>US stocks begin their final decline, killing off earnings;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index may fluctuate between 100 and 103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the US economic and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders enter the market and experience a phase of \"small profits and large losses.\" The capital curve during this phase also shows slight rises and sharp falls, and some even fall all the way down without any signs of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How can we break the strange phenomenon of funds being completely depleted in the midst of \"small profits and big losses\"? Perhaps this can offer you some insights from the perspective of position management. Position management is often broadly referred to as \"money management.\" Although this term is not precise, it is often universally applicable within the trading community. So what exactly is position management? As the name suggests, it's about managing your positions. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the full position is the so-called position ratio. According to Baidu Baike, this is defined as: in a risk market, risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of capital invested in a single transaction.</p><p>Through the above explanation, you should now have a relatively accurate understanding of \"position management.\" Below, we will discuss...<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mindset issues in position management.</b>This paper explains how to solve the problem of \"small profits and large losses\" from three aspects.</p><p>I. The Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The prerequisite for studying position management must be consistent trading methods and the fixed use of one or more combinations to participate in the market; otherwise, position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is simple: just like in poker, the criteria for folding and raising should be the same every time. Otherwise, who can say for sure whether you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a large bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what the market will be like at some point in the future, or what price it will represent. Even if someone does it in the short term, it will definitely be a mistake. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict market trends when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market becomes obvious to us. Since the market is never predictable, do you still have any reason to use all your funds for position holding?</p><p>At this point, you might ask, how can you make enough profits without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of pursuing profit, while at the same time untying the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the beginner stage, unrestrained investment without a guaranteed win rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to lose money.</p><p>Position management is a risk prevention measure, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful veterans often tell us that we can only invest heavily under fairly certain circumstances, and even then, this is based on preparing for stop-loss orders in advance. After all, survival is the key to profiting in the market.</p><p>This shows that position management is essential in market competition. It's never a bad idea to invest smaller positions before you can properly interpret market signals and establish a sound trading system. While it can't temporarily help you escape \"small profits,\" combined with stop-loss position management, it can at least help you stop \"large losses.\" This is a symbolic victory in the entire trading process: your funds will finally stop flowing out in large quantities.</p><p>II. How to manage positions?</p><p>If the aforementioned are so-called \"worldviews,\" then in this section we will explore the \"methodology\" of position management. First, there's one thing everyone needs to understand: position control doesn't solve the problem of low winning rates; it only slows down traders' deaths so they have enough time and opportunity to capture their own wave of market opportunities. Therefore, position management cannot be discussed in isolation, but should be considered in conjunction with each person's trading time period, psychological tolerance, and entry and exit criteria.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high win rate, but their profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict position control when engaging in trend trading to reduce the cost of test orders. Once a test order is successful and profitable, it is necessary to continuously increase positions to improve the profit-loss ratio and compensate for the low win rate. Short-term traders rely on a high win rate combined with a low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits. Therefore, they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize profits. Of course, short-term traders have very strict stop-loss orders, which reduces the risk brought about by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut losses and allow profits to flow. To achieve this goal, certain principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never invest all your capital in the market. Especially in the beginner stage or when you are in a state of \"small profits and large losses\" for a long time, investing all your funds in the market will not only amplify the losses, but will also affect the trader's mentality to some extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to invest heavily if they have firm stop-loss orders and a reasonable profit-loss ratio, but it is essential to ensure that the same entry standard is used to open the same position; otherwise, there is a high risk of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>The awkward situation of holding a small position and holding a large position when losses occur.</p><p>2. It is normal for occasional consecutive losses to occur during trading. Position management must ensure that after consecutive losses, the remaining funds can be used to open the same number of positions. If this principle is not followed, it is very likely that a 100-lot order can be opened, but after several consecutive losses, only a 90-lot order can be opened. It will be more difficult for a 90-lot order to return the capital to its original level than a 100-lot order.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy for increasing or decreasing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical perspective, it is by no means a static model. In an ever-changing market, after a single entry, we may experience a market trend that prompts us to increase or decrease our positions. At this time, your win rate and profit-loss ratio also change, which requires your position management, including the content of increasing or decreasing positions.</p><p>Are there any general rules for specific position management that are precise down to numbers? For example, what percentage must be used to open a position? Under what circumstances should the position be increased or decreased? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this section, position management should be designed based on individual entry and exit criteria and psychological tolerance. This can only provide you with one approach. You need to complete your position management strategy based on your own relevant data.</p><p>So what data or reference points should be used to set your own position management strategy? I have compiled the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative. How much loss can you accept each time? What are the stop-loss points corresponding to these losses in your trading system? The acceptable loss amount is the amount of loss you can bear per point compared to the stop-loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you can open in a single trade compared to the price fluctuation per point.</p><p>2. The success rate of the trading method. Your position management must be determined in conjunction with the win rate that the trading method can provide. This is to ensure that your funds can survive the losses with a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of a transaction, also known as the profit-loss ratio. Win rate and profit-loss ratio are twins, as I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the combination of win rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" of trading, otherwise you will die a tragic death in the night before dawn before you even reach the dawn of your trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part; it is an integral part of the entire trading system. Above, we only discussed position management and related factors, but this does not mean that trading systems are the only ones. In a trading system, entry and exit strategies and position management complement each other and are indispensable.</p><p>III. Mindset Issues in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts introduced the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management, respectively. The next part is about the issue of awareness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, it will definitely not be possible to deal with them well in terms of mindset. If your position management has been inspired by the above section, or if you have already solved the previous problems, then the issue of mindset will be relatively easier.</p><p>There are essentially two mindsets that often arise in position management: when making money, I wish I could have gone all in back then; When I lost money, I wish I had tried with a small position back then. Of course, there will also be questions such as whether or not to increase your position. Let's add to our positions and take a gamble! Or should we reduce our positions? Forget it, I'll just hurry up and reduce my holdings and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best approach is to follow a pre-designed management model without any subjective factors. This sounds easy, but it's not that simple to actually do. So what should we do?</p><p>There are no shortcuts; the only way is to make the position management strategy and the other parts of the trading system that match it as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective imagination.</p><p>Note that this is not about making your trading system complicated, but rather telling everyone to make the simplest possible trading system as fixed and detailed as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on a range, then turn this range into a definite value, or try to compress the range of the range to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your mind with rules.</p><p>However, rules still need to be enforced through discipline, so it is essential to abide by established rules, even if it means using your own reward and punishment mechanisms.</p><p>That concludes our discussion on position management. We hope you have gained some insights into position management, which will undoubtedly be beneficial to your trading journey. Finally, I hope everyone has a smooth trading experience, taking advantage of both price</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to break free from the vicious cycle of \"small profits, big losses\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders enter the market and experience a phase of \"small profits and large losses.\" The capital curve during this phase also shows slight rises and sharp falls, and some even fall all the way down without any signs of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How can we break the strange phenomenon of funds being completely depleted in the midst of \"small profits and big losses\"? Perhaps this can offer you some insights from the perspective of position management. Position management is often broadly referred to as \"money management.\" Although this term is not precise, it is often universally applicable within the trading community. So what exactly is position management? As the name suggests, it's about managing your positions. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the full position is the so-called position ratio. According to Baidu Baike, this is defined as: in a risk market, risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of capital invested in a single transaction.</p><p>Through the above explanation, you should now have a relatively accurate understanding of \"position management.\" Below, we will discuss...<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mindset issues in position management.</b>This paper explains how to solve the problem of \"small profits and large losses\" from three aspects.</p><p>I. The Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The prerequisite for studying position management must be consistent trading methods and the fixed use of one or more combinations to participate in the market; otherwise, position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is simple: just like in poker, the criteria for folding and raising should be the same every time. Otherwise, who can say for sure whether you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a large bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what the market will be like at some point in the future, or what price it will represent. Even if someone does it in the short term, it will definitely be a mistake. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict market trends when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market becomes obvious to us. Since the market is never predictable, do you still have any reason to use all your funds for position holding?</p><p>At this point, you might ask, how can you make enough profits without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of pursuing profit, while at the same time untying the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the beginner stage, unrestrained investment without a guaranteed win rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to lose money.</p><p>Position management is a risk prevention measure, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful veterans often tell us that we can only invest heavily under fairly certain circumstances, and even then, this is based on preparing for stop-loss orders in advance. After all, survival is the key to profiting in the market.</p><p>This shows that position management is essential in market competition. It's never a bad idea to invest smaller positions before you can properly interpret market signals and establish a sound trading system. While it can't temporarily help you escape \"small profits,\" combined with stop-loss position management, it can at least help you stop \"large losses.\" This is a symbolic victory in the entire trading process: your funds will finally stop flowing out in large quantities.</p><p>II. How to manage positions?</p><p>If the aforementioned are so-called \"worldviews,\" then in this section we will explore the \"methodology\" of position management. First, there's one thing everyone needs to understand: position control doesn't solve the problem of low winning rates; it only slows down traders' deaths so they have enough time and opportunity to capture their own wave of market opportunities. Therefore, position management cannot be discussed in isolation, but should be considered in conjunction with each person's trading time period, psychological tolerance, and entry and exit criteria.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high win rate, but their profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict position control when engaging in trend trading to reduce the cost of test orders. Once a test order is successful and profitable, it is necessary to continuously increase positions to improve the profit-loss ratio and compensate for the low win rate. Short-term traders rely on a high win rate combined with a low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits. Therefore, they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize profits. Of course, short-term traders have very strict stop-loss orders, which reduces the risk brought about by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut losses and allow profits to flow. To achieve this goal, certain principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never invest all your capital in the market. Especially in the beginner stage or when you are in a state of \"small profits and large losses\" for a long time, investing all your funds in the market will not only amplify the losses, but will also affect the trader's mentality to some extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to invest heavily if they have firm stop-loss orders and a reasonable profit-loss ratio, but it is essential to ensure that the same entry standard is used to open the same position; otherwise, there is a high risk of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>The awkward situation of holding a small position and holding a large position when losses occur.</p><p>2. It is normal for occasional consecutive losses to occur during trading. Position management must ensure that after consecutive losses, the remaining funds can be used to open the same number of positions. If this principle is not followed, it is very likely that a 100-lot order can be opened, but after several consecutive losses, only a 90-lot order can be opened. It will be more difficult for a 90-lot order to return the capital to its original level than a 100-lot order.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy for increasing or decreasing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical perspective, it is by no means a static model. In an ever-changing market, after a single entry, we may experience a market trend that prompts us to increase or decrease our positions. At this time, your win rate and profit-loss ratio also change, which requires your position management, including the content of increasing or decreasing positions.</p><p>Are there any general rules for specific position management that are precise down to numbers? For example, what percentage must be used to open a position? Under what circumstances should the position be increased or decreased? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this section, position management should be designed based on individual entry and exit criteria and psychological tolerance. This can only provide you with one approach. You need to complete your position management strategy based on your own relevant data.</p><p>So what data or reference points should be used to set your own position management strategy? I have compiled the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative. How much loss can you accept each time? What are the stop-loss points corresponding to these losses in your trading system? The acceptable loss amount is the amount of loss you can bear per point compared to the stop-loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you can open in a single trade compared to the price fluctuation per point.</p><p>2. The success rate of the trading method. Your position management must be determined in conjunction with the win rate that the trading method can provide. This is to ensure that your funds can survive the losses with a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of a transaction, also known as the profit-loss ratio. Win rate and profit-loss ratio are twins, as I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the combination of win rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" of trading, otherwise you will die a tragic death in the night before dawn before you even reach the dawn of your trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part; it is an integral part of the entire trading system. Above, we only discussed position management and related factors, but this does not mean that trading systems are the only ones. In a trading system, entry and exit strategies and position management complement each other and are indispensable.</p><p>III. Mindset Issues in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts introduced the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management, respectively. The next part is about the issue of awareness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, it will definitely not be possible to deal with them well in terms of mindset. If your position management has been inspired by the above section, or if you have already solved the previous problems, then the issue of mindset will be relatively easier.</p><p>There are essentially two mindsets that often arise in position management: when making money, I wish I could have gone all in back then; When I lost money, I wish I had tried with a small position back then. Of course, there will also be questions such as whether or not to increase your position. Let's add to our positions and take a gamble! Or should we reduce our positions? Forget it, I'll just hurry up and reduce my holdings and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best approach is to follow a pre-designed management model without any subjective factors. This sounds easy, but it's not that simple to actually do. So what should we do?</p><p>There are no shortcuts; the only way is to make the position management strategy and the other parts of the trading system that match it as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective imagination.</p><p>Note that this is not about making your trading system complicated, but rather telling everyone to make the simplest possible trading system as fixed and detailed as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on a range, then turn this range into a definite value, or try to compress the range of the range to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your mind with rules.</p><p>However, rules still need to be enforced through discipline, so it is essential to abide by established rules, even if it means using your own reward and punishment mechanisms.</p><p>That concludes our discussion on position management. We hope you have gained some insights into position management, which will undoubtedly be beneficial to your trading journey. Finally, I hope everyone has a smooth trading experience, taking advantage of both price</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American company in 1995.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Oaktree Capital now manages $100 billion in assets. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memos\" for investors since the 1990s. In his January 2000 investment memo, he predicted the bursting of the tech stock bubble, and his \"investment memos\" became required reading on Wall Street.</p><p>“The first email I open and read is Howard Marks’ memo. I always learn something from it. His books are especially true,” Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he highly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing About Investing,\" and says he has read it twice.</p><p>This article is a brilliant speech by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"Investing Most Important\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad you're here to hear me talk about my books, my investment philosophy, and how we manage our money.</p><p>I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe is essential in investing. Today, I would also like to talk to you about how the investment philosophy behind this book came about and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made up of uncertainty.</b></p><p>We need to recognize that the world is a world full of uncertainty in order to understand how to cope with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, believe that you are right and use this as a basis for action, you are definitely asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you could end up very badly.</p><p>As the humorous Mark Twain said, \"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, but what you think you know that you're wrong about.\" I believe that believing too much in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world.</b></p><p>Basing your investments on predictions about the future is a very dangerous thing. My predictions don't have to be much better than others', after all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macroeconomy. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well under various macroeconomic conditions in order to control risk. Only by knowing our ignorance can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. My understanding of the world's development is often controlled by random events.</b></p><p>We cannot say for sure what the future will be; the future is made up of random events that may occur. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when those events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave safe space to cope with uncertainty.</b></p><p>It can be said that I have been successful in my career because I have studied what might happen in the future, but I do not think it will definitely happen, leaving room for uncertainty and variable factors, and preparing for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is precisely what most people think will never happen.</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good interpretation is that \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (as Eloi Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk exists in the current market and most investors believe it will occur, then it is not a risk. If most investors believe that something will not happen in the future, then that is where the risk lies.</p><p>However, the truth is that we never know if something will happen. From this perspective, we must strive to understand the future and its possibilities, but we should never assume that we have completely figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. Not having a particularly bad record is better than being inconsistent.</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big influence on me. Simon said there are two kinds of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One type is a loser's match.</p><p>The winning matches were played by professional players like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, and Sampras. Winners of tennis championships are highly skilled and have consummate skills, so they don't have to worry about tennis ball rebounds, wind speeds, blinding sunlight, or lack of skill. They can fight however they want, they can do whatever they want.</p><p>A winner's game belongs to the winner. The opponent can't catch the ball that the winner hits. To win a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that winners can only hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding playing like a loser.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and sometimes they can't even catch simple balls. Our goal is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, the opponent may only be able to do it nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by playing well, we win by not playing badly.</p><p>When I read this article and applied this concept to investing, I had a sudden enlightenment. We live in an uncertain world, and it's difficult to always make successful investments. Those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that, for me, the best way to achieve long-term success in investing is perhaps to avoid mistakes, to avoid making wrong investments, and to avoid bad years. As long as you make well-accumulated investments and achieve steady performance year after year, over twenty, thirty, forty, and fifty years, this will lead to a successful investment career.</p><p>The key is that it's impossible to be right every time. It's hard to know what the future holds. It's difficult to hit a good shot or make a great investment and succeed overnight. But as long as we avoid failure, we will be on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts.</b></p><p>Macroeconomic forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, markets, and interest rates will change in the future; it studies the overall situation. These things are, firstly, difficult to understand, and secondly, difficult to understand better than others.</p><p>For someone like me to predict what the world economy, the US economy, the Chinese economy, interest rates, or the Chinese A-share market will be like next year, what advantages do I have compared to others? These things are difficult to understand better than what others have studied. We achieve better investment results because we understand things better than others.</p><p>Oaktree Capital's investments are not based on future macroeconomic projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest</b></p><p>First, you need to consider what kind of investment results will emerge in the future. When building a portfolio, it must be at least OK, meaning it remains viable in any possible scenario, before investing.</p><p>Second, strive to control risks. The risk is to avoid getting out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume we understand macroeconomics, but we should certainly know more about the microeconomy. What is microscopic? It refers to companies, industries, and securities. On these specific, smaller task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Cheap Goods</b></p><p>When I first started working at Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Beautiful Fifty,\" which were the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>Furthermore, some of these companies were highly anticipated but ultimately failed, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take photos with film these days, and few use instant cameras either, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but back in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing they would always be so perfect, and never imagined they would disappear. The key point is that even if you buy a very good company, you may lose a lot of money.</p><p>One lesson we can learn from this is that good companies and good investments are not the same thing. Buying good companies can make you lose a lot of money, while buying bad companies can make you make a lot of money. This tells us that it is certainly not the quality of the company that determines the return on investment.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? It is the purchase price. If the company's prices are high, you may lose money. You may make money, or even make money safely, if the lower-quality companies are cheap. This is very important in shaping my investment philosophy.</p><p>I realize that what matters is not what you buy, but how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise create, the foolish imitate.</b></p><p>In investing, every trend eventually leads to extremes.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 2000 points, those who invested in A-shares did the right thing. But later, as the stock rose, others were attracted, and they bought more and more, becoming more and more excited, and even using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 points later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right time and price, you can safely achieve good returns. If you act at the end of the trend, regardless of timing and price, you may run into big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that someone who is six feet tall can drown in a river that is on average five feet deep.</b></p><p>When we invest, we can't just pursue average survival; we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, the portfolio we build must be able to withstand the worst tests. We must manage our investments professionally, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live, and when things are good, survival isn't difficult. At that time, everyone is actually doing very well. The hard part is who gets through the tough times. Those people whose portfolios are too aggressive, those who are too leveraged, can't survive the tough times, and those who are six feet tall drown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It's difficult to distinguish between being much earlier than others or making a mistake.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing is about the future. In the investment field, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we do the right thing, our timing may not be quite right.</p><p>We're probably too early, and if we're too late, we could be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it seems like you're doing something wrong.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems they were wrong, and they themselves feel they were wrong. They may regret leaving the market at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They felt they were wrong, but they were right, it was just too early. Our timing can never be perfect. You must have courage and conviction, and if there are good reasons for what you do, the facts will ultimately prove that your actions were rational.</p><p>I must have courage myself. I buy things whose prices are falling because they're cheap, because they've fallen, and because I like them, I buy them. It will continue to fall. I have to be very confident and believe that I am right. We can't sell just because the price continues to fall. Therefore, you must remember that before the facts ultimately prove you right, it is difficult to distinguish whether you were much earlier than others or whether you were wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of an asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is it about making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We don't agree with any of this. The first job of an asset manager is to control risk. At Oaktree Asset Management, we place risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks or bonds. Instead, we discover less popular corporate bonds, convertible securities, distressed bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly traded stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance will not rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle because of our outstanding risk control, and we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We achieve average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough. However, our clients want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: in a bull market we get average returns, and in a bear market we get excess returns.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our results will be less volatile than average. Our overall above-average returns are due to our outstanding performance in a bear market, which allowed us to achieve this goal. This is indeed very necessary, as it makes our clients happy.</p><p>I believe this is the secret to our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of $100 billion, from $3.5 billion in 2006 to $100 billion today. We really started our asset management business in 2007. 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least $10 billion in funding in 2007 because our performance is better than average during a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and has the ability to deliver consistent and stable investment results. We grew up!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>We believe that it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage and make money in the part of the market that people can understand; However, you can do relatively well in those markets that people usually don't understand, such as bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure construction, real estate, emerging markets... It's relatively easier to gain an investment advantage in these projects, but not so easy either. It's just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I do not believe that macroeconomic forecasts are feasible. I believe that macro forecasting is not a necessary condition for successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, did not succeed because they did a better job of macro forecasting than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>Finally, we do not speculate on market fluctuations.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going to rise, or take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to make mistakes predicting price fluctuations like We enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the level of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments. Take baseball as an example; it does not come from hitting an occasional home run. An investor's long-term success stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment results over decades. This is our goal, and I think we have achieved it. This is what I want to share with you.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investing needs to be done step by step. Once you feel good, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make things worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to invest a very small percentage (less than 5%) in your portfolio in areas you are optimistic about, because an investment that is too small will have little effect on your portfolio regardless of its performance and is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand them at all, don't do them.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe investment philosophy behind \"Wall Street must-read classics\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American company in 1995.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Oaktree Capital now manages $100 billion in assets. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memos\" for investors since the 1990s. In his January 2000 investment memo, he predicted the bursting of the tech stock bubble, and his \"investment memos\" became required reading on Wall Street.</p><p>“The first email I open and read is Howard Marks’ memo. I always learn something from it. His books are especially true,” Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he highly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing About Investing,\" and says he has read it twice.</p><p>This article is a brilliant speech by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"Investing Most Important\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad you're here to hear me talk about my books, my investment philosophy, and how we manage our money.</p><p>I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe is essential in investing. Today, I would also like to talk to you about how the investment philosophy behind this book came about and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made up of uncertainty.</b></p><p>We need to recognize that the world is a world full of uncertainty in order to understand how to cope with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, believe that you are right and use this as a basis for action, you are definitely asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you could end up very badly.</p><p>As the humorous Mark Twain said, \"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, but what you think you know that you're wrong about.\" I believe that believing too much in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world.</b></p><p>Basing your investments on predictions about the future is a very dangerous thing. My predictions don't have to be much better than others', after all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macroeconomy. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well under various macroeconomic conditions in order to control risk. Only by knowing our ignorance can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. My understanding of the world's development is often controlled by random events.</b></p><p>We cannot say for sure what the future will be; the future is made up of random events that may occur. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when those events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave safe space to cope with uncertainty.</b></p><p>It can be said that I have been successful in my career because I have studied what might happen in the future, but I do not think it will definitely happen, leaving room for uncertainty and variable factors, and preparing for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is precisely what most people think will never happen.</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good interpretation is that \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (as Eloi Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk exists in the current market and most investors believe it will occur, then it is not a risk. If most investors believe that something will not happen in the future, then that is where the risk lies.</p><p>However, the truth is that we never know if something will happen. From this perspective, we must strive to understand the future and its possibilities, but we should never assume that we have completely figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. Not having a particularly bad record is better than being inconsistent.</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big influence on me. Simon said there are two kinds of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One type is a loser's match.</p><p>The winning matches were played by professional players like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, and Sampras. Winners of tennis championships are highly skilled and have consummate skills, so they don't have to worry about tennis ball rebounds, wind speeds, blinding sunlight, or lack of skill. They can fight however they want, they can do whatever they want.</p><p>A winner's game belongs to the winner. The opponent can't catch the ball that the winner hits. To win a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that winners can only hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding playing like a loser.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and sometimes they can't even catch simple balls. Our goal is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, the opponent may only be able to do it nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by playing well, we win by not playing badly.</p><p>When I read this article and applied this concept to investing, I had a sudden enlightenment. We live in an uncertain world, and it's difficult to always make successful investments. Those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that, for me, the best way to achieve long-term success in investing is perhaps to avoid mistakes, to avoid making wrong investments, and to avoid bad years. As long as you make well-accumulated investments and achieve steady performance year after year, over twenty, thirty, forty, and fifty years, this will lead to a successful investment career.</p><p>The key is that it's impossible to be right every time. It's hard to know what the future holds. It's difficult to hit a good shot or make a great investment and succeed overnight. But as long as we avoid failure, we will be on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts.</b></p><p>Macroeconomic forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, markets, and interest rates will change in the future; it studies the overall situation. These things are, firstly, difficult to understand, and secondly, difficult to understand better than others.</p><p>For someone like me to predict what the world economy, the US economy, the Chinese economy, interest rates, or the Chinese A-share market will be like next year, what advantages do I have compared to others? These things are difficult to understand better than what others have studied. We achieve better investment results because we understand things better than others.</p><p>Oaktree Capital's investments are not based on future macroeconomic projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest</b></p><p>First, you need to consider what kind of investment results will emerge in the future. When building a portfolio, it must be at least OK, meaning it remains viable in any possible scenario, before investing.</p><p>Second, strive to control risks. The risk is to avoid getting out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume we understand macroeconomics, but we should certainly know more about the microeconomy. What is microscopic? It refers to companies, industries, and securities. On these specific, smaller task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Cheap Goods</b></p><p>When I first started working at Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Beautiful Fifty,\" which were the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>Furthermore, some of these companies were highly anticipated but ultimately failed, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take photos with film these days, and few use instant cameras either, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but back in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing they would always be so perfect, and never imagined they would disappear. The key point is that even if you buy a very good company, you may lose a lot of money.</p><p>One lesson we can learn from this is that good companies and good investments are not the same thing. Buying good companies can make you lose a lot of money, while buying bad companies can make you make a lot of money. This tells us that it is certainly not the quality of the company that determines the return on investment.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? It is the purchase price. If the company's prices are high, you may lose money. You may make money, or even make money safely, if the lower-quality companies are cheap. This is very important in shaping my investment philosophy.</p><p>I realize that what matters is not what you buy, but how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise create, the foolish imitate.</b></p><p>In investing, every trend eventually leads to extremes.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 2000 points, those who invested in A-shares did the right thing. But later, as the stock rose, others were attracted, and they bought more and more, becoming more and more excited, and even using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 points later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right time and price, you can safely achieve good returns. If you act at the end of the trend, regardless of timing and price, you may run into big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that someone who is six feet tall can drown in a river that is on average five feet deep.</b></p><p>When we invest, we can't just pursue average survival; we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, the portfolio we build must be able to withstand the worst tests. We must manage our investments professionally, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live, and when things are good, survival isn't difficult. At that time, everyone is actually doing very well. The hard part is who gets through the tough times. Those people whose portfolios are too aggressive, those who are too leveraged, can't survive the tough times, and those who are six feet tall drown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It's difficult to distinguish between being much earlier than others or making a mistake.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing is about the future. In the investment field, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we do the right thing, our timing may not be quite right.</p><p>We're probably too early, and if we're too late, we could be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it seems like you're doing something wrong.</p><p>When the A-share market reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems they were wrong, and they themselves feel they were wrong. They may regret leaving the market at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They felt they were wrong, but they were right, it was just too early. Our timing can never be perfect. You must have courage and conviction, and if there are good reasons for what you do, the facts will ultimately prove that your actions were rational.</p><p>I must have courage myself. I buy things whose prices are falling because they're cheap, because they've fallen, and because I like them, I buy them. It will continue to fall. I have to be very confident and believe that I am right. We can't sell just because the price continues to fall. Therefore, you must remember that before the facts ultimately prove you right, it is difficult to distinguish whether you were much earlier than others or whether you were wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of an asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is it about making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We don't agree with any of this. The first job of an asset manager is to control risk. At Oaktree Asset Management, we place risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks or bonds. Instead, we discover less popular corporate bonds, convertible securities, distressed bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly traded stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance will not rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle because of our outstanding risk control, and we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We achieve average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough. However, our clients want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: in a bull market we get average returns, and in a bear market we get excess returns.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our results will be less volatile than average. Our overall above-average returns are due to our outstanding performance in a bear market, which allowed us to achieve this goal. This is indeed very necessary, as it makes our clients happy.</p><p>I believe this is the secret to our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of $100 billion, from $3.5 billion in 2006 to $100 billion today. We really started our asset management business in 2007. 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least $10 billion in funding in 2007 because our performance is better than average during a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and has the ability to deliver consistent and stable investment results. We grew up!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>We believe that it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage and make money in the part of the market that people can understand; However, you can do relatively well in those markets that people usually don't understand, such as bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure construction, real estate, emerging markets... It's relatively easier to gain an investment advantage in these projects, but not so easy either. It's just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I do not believe that macroeconomic forecasts are feasible. I believe that macro forecasting is not a necessary condition for successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, did not succeed because they did a better job of macro forecasting than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>Finally, we do not speculate on market fluctuations.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going to rise, or take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to make mistakes predicting price fluctuations like We enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the level of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments. Take baseball as an example; it does not come from hitting an occasional home run. An investor's long-term success stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment results over decades. This is our goal, and I think we have achieved it. This is what I want to share with you.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investing needs to be done step by step. Once you feel good, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make things worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to invest a very small percentage (less than 5%) in your portfolio in areas you are optimistic about, because an investment that is too small will have little effect on your portfolio regardless of its performance and is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand them at all, don't do them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581989768565324","authorIdStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097661560","repostId":"1179897507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179897507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1645423968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179897507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>The market has experienced a significant correction during this period, which has led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus approach pullback/retracement? Today I'm sharing an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement, translated by my friend Huang Yun, a very excellent fund manager, in 2019. Even today, it would still be particularly fitting. This also shows that no matter how excellent a company is, it will experience huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>This chapter describes a somewhat harsh reality in the market: both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience significant downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are currently in. How to calmly cope with market losses is quite difficult for any investor, because we not only have to consider the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. These two demands are also contradictory in some extremely downturned market environments. Perhaps we, as investors, have the ability to absorb market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience provides us with valuable lessons on how to truly possess patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and are in adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>- Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>These are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyles, and if their shareholders can hold their stocks for the long term, these shareholders will also reap huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to achieve huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial public offering in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual return of 35.5%. This means that the initial $1,000 investment will become $387,000 today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years should not be underestimated. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initially assumed $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, resulting in a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is said that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner is not actually simple. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon will change the world,\" but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound return of 38% since its IPO in May 2002. However, achieving this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can bear. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, with a drop of more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Can investors really endure their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? In particular, the 500% return vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three companies, with an annual compound return of 25% since its IPO in 2004. He provides investors with a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's stock price has only fallen by more than 50% once, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. When his stock price pullback/retracement sharply, many investments could not tolerate this period. In those 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market capitalization at the time was less than $153 billion. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which deprived many investors of the opportunity to earn a 515% return over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, or Google. However, the companies he invested in over a long period of time that yielded huge investment returns also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The vice chairman of Hathaway is known as a long-time partner of Warren Buffett. His famous quotes, rich in wisdom and philosophy, are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about problems from multiple perspectives using different ways of thinking. One of his famous quotes is, \"If I knew where I would die, I would never go there.\" At the 2002 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, he said, \"People calculate too much and think too little.\"</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he is never attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets: entry, exit, and too difficult.\" Investors should follow his advice: \"If an investment target is too difficult to analyze, we move on to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\"</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products on the market that serve investors, which are like purple and green bait: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation between me and the fishing gear owner. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Will the fish really take the bait because of them?\" He said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish.\"</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pursue a legal career. In his early investing career, Munger made his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His passion for investing was fully ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis, one of Buffett's first investors, introduced him to Buffett. Buffett was surprised that he easily obtained Ed Davis's $100,000, because Davis didn't seem to care much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor whom Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two are so similar that Davis once wrote Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off instantly. After years of communication, mutual learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger founded a law firm with other partners in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is outstanding. From 1962 to 1969, the fund achieved an incredible average annual return of 37.1% before fees. Especially when you consider the market environment at the time, this achievement is truly remarkable. Over the past eight years, picking stocks has not been an easy task. In fact, the S&P 500 (including Dividend) rose only 6.6% during the same period. Over the 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound annual return of 19.82%, far exceeding the index, while the S&P 500 (including Dividend) had a compound annual return of only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners would also reap substantial rewards if they could persevere alongside him; however, this is not as easy as maintaining their holdings in Amazon.</p><p>The best lesson investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often involves significant short-term losses. If you cannot accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. As Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you cannot cope with two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century, you are not suited to investing and will only receive relatively mediocre investment returns compared to those investors who can rationally handle market volatility.</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater fluctuations in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated mental structure.\" Of course, Munger is not just focused; his focus is on diversified thinking based on a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. During the worst bear market since the Great Depression, the company inflicted severe damage on Munger's portfolio. Blue Chip Printing's sales exceeded $124 million that year. However, sales soon began to decline, plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing, I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure.\"</p><p>However, Blue Chip Print, as an important asset for the fund's investments, later provided substantial funding for the acquisitions of Seesee Candy, the Buffalo Evening News, and Wesco Financial Corporation, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to -13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to -23.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but because of market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value,\" Munger said. \"It was a tough experience—1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone; for many great investors, it was a difficult process. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. In the bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500 fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, returning directly to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger starting January 1, 1973, would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger still lost its largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound return of 24.3% before fees throughout its entire life cycle, even during the brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall by more than 50%. Even indices with long-term compound growth may experience a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement exceeding 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell by more than 90% before returning to its 1929 high in 1955. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced two significant pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the tech bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, huge losses are inevitable if we are to seek high investment returns, regardless of the investment cycle, whether it is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said, \"We are keen to keep things simple.\" You can simplify everything you want, but that won't keep you away from losses. Even a 50/50 stock and bond portfolio lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. First, the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffered absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway holdings fell by more than 20% on six occasions. For those unfamiliar with it, pullback/retracement is simply a decline starting from a high point. In other words, there have been six instances where Berkshire Hathaway has fallen by more than 20% after hitting a record high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, namely your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire did not invest in them. This also made them pay a price. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. However, what's even more painful is that internet stocks continue to soar. During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 270%! In a 1999 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote, \"Relative returns are a concern for us, and over the same period, poor relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indices, poor relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance underperformed the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to grow at a compound annual rate over the past 55 years, in his own words, is:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We cannot play chess blindfolded or become pianists. But our achievements are remarkable because we have an advantage in temperament, which is more than enough to compensate for our lack of intelligence.</b></i></p><p>You must be able to cope with the loss. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has already fallen. If you invest this way, you may be destined not to get good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you'll be forced to sell. If you know that a stock has fallen by more than 50% in the past, and this will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't afford to lose more than $30,000. Assume that if the value of stocks decreases by half while the bonds will retain their value (this is absolutely an assumption, with no guarantees), then do not allocate more than 60% of your assets to stocks. That way, even if that 60% of your assets fall by half, you should still be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>The market has experienced a significant correction during this period, which has led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus approach pullback/retracement? Today I'm sharing an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement, translated by my friend Huang Yun, a very excellent fund manager, in 2019. Even today, it would still be particularly fitting. This also shows that no matter how excellent a company is, it will experience huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>This chapter describes a somewhat harsh reality in the market: both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience significant downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are currently in. How to calmly cope with market losses is quite difficult for any investor, because we not only have to consider the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. These two demands are also contradictory in some extremely downturned market environments. Perhaps we, as investors, have the ability to absorb market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience provides us with valuable lessons on how to truly possess patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and are in adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>- Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>These are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyles, and if their shareholders can hold their stocks for the long term, these shareholders will also reap huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to achieve huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial public offering in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual return of 35.5%. This means that the initial $1,000 investment will become $387,000 today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years should not be underestimated. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initially assumed $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, resulting in a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is said that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner is not actually simple. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon will change the world,\" but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound return of 38% since its IPO in May 2002. However, achieving this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can bear. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, with a drop of more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Can investors really endure their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? In particular, the 500% return vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three companies, with an annual compound return of 25% since its IPO in 2004. He provides investors with a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's stock price has only fallen by more than 50% once, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. When his stock price pullback/retracement sharply, many investments could not tolerate this period. In those 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market capitalization at the time was less than $153 billion. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which deprived many investors of the opportunity to earn a 515% return over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, or Google. However, the companies he invested in over a long period of time that yielded huge investment returns also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The vice chairman of Hathaway is known as a long-time partner of Warren Buffett. His famous quotes, rich in wisdom and philosophy, are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about problems from multiple perspectives using different ways of thinking. One of his famous quotes is, \"If I knew where I would die, I would never go there.\" At the 2002 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, he said, \"People calculate too much and think too little.\"</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he is never attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets: entry, exit, and too difficult.\" Investors should follow his advice: \"If an investment target is too difficult to analyze, we move on to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\"</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products on the market that serve investors, which are like purple and green bait: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation between me and the fishing gear owner. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Will the fish really take the bait because of them?\" He said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish.\"</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pursue a legal career. In his early investing career, Munger made his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His passion for investing was fully ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis, one of Buffett's first investors, introduced him to Buffett. Buffett was surprised that he easily obtained Ed Davis's $100,000, because Davis didn't seem to care much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor whom Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two are so similar that Davis once wrote Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off instantly. After years of communication, mutual learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger founded a law firm with other partners in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is outstanding. From 1962 to 1969, the fund achieved an incredible average annual return of 37.1% before fees. Especially when you consider the market environment at the time, this achievement is truly remarkable. Over the past eight years, picking stocks has not been an easy task. In fact, the S&P 500 (including Dividend) rose only 6.6% during the same period. Over the 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound annual return of 19.82%, far exceeding the index, while the S&P 500 (including Dividend) had a compound annual return of only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners would also reap substantial rewards if they could persevere alongside him; however, this is not as easy as maintaining their holdings in Amazon.</p><p>The best lesson investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often involves significant short-term losses. If you cannot accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. As Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you cannot cope with two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century, you are not suited to investing and will only receive relatively mediocre investment returns compared to those investors who can rationally handle market volatility.</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater fluctuations in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated mental structure.\" Of course, Munger is not just focused; his focus is on diversified thinking based on a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. During the worst bear market since the Great Depression, the company inflicted severe damage on Munger's portfolio. Blue Chip Printing's sales exceeded $124 million that year. However, sales soon began to decline, plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing, I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure.\"</p><p>However, Blue Chip Print, as an important asset for the fund's investments, later provided substantial funding for the acquisitions of Seesee Candy, the Buffalo Evening News, and Wesco Financial Corporation, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to -13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to -23.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but because of market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value,\" Munger said. \"It was a tough experience—1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone; for many great investors, it was a difficult process. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. In the bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500 fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, returning directly to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger starting January 1, 1973, would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger still lost its largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound return of 24.3% before fees throughout its entire life cycle, even during the brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall by more than 50%. Even indices with long-term compound growth may experience a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement exceeding 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell by more than 90% before returning to its 1929 high in 1955. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced two significant pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the tech bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, huge losses are inevitable if we are to seek high investment returns, regardless of the investment cycle, whether it is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said, \"We are keen to keep things simple.\" You can simplify everything you want, but that won't keep you away from losses. Even a 50/50 stock and bond portfolio lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. First, the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffered absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway holdings fell by more than 20% on six occasions. For those unfamiliar with it, pullback/retracement is simply a decline starting from a high point. In other words, there have been six instances where Berkshire Hathaway has fallen by more than 20% after hitting a record high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, namely your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire did not invest in them. This also made them pay a price. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. However, what's even more painful is that internet stocks continue to soar. During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 270%! In a 1999 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote, \"Relative returns are a concern for us, and over the same period, poor relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indices, poor relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance underperformed the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to grow at a compound annual rate over the past 55 years, in his own words, is:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We cannot play chess blindfolded or become pianists. But our achievements are remarkable because we have an advantage in temperament, which is more than enough to compensate for our lack of intelligence.</b></i></p><p>You must be able to cope with the loss. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has already fallen. If you invest this way, you may be destined not to get good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you'll be forced to sell. If you know that a stock has fallen by more than 50% in the past, and this will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't afford to lose more than $30,000. Assume that if the value of stocks decreases by half while the bonds will retain their value (this is absolutely an assumption, with no guarantees), then do not allocate more than 60% of your assets to stocks. That way, even if that 60% of your assets fall by half, you should still be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}