areetis personal page - To The Moon

areetis

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2023-06-29

$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ Better run 1st

2023-05-23

$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.

2022-06-06

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$End investigation -> delisting coming?

2023-06-16

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ A bit over rated at the moment...

08-06

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ sale is over?

05-30

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

02-16

$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?

2022-09-15

$Microsoft(MSFT)$why keep falling?

08-28

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 150

2023-07-20

$Apple(AAPL)$ 200

2022-04-21

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$crap...

02-14

Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.

AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already

2023-09-15

$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...

2023-06-06

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ AI wave

2022-10-25

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...

2023-07-19

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 300

2023-06-14

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Power!

2022-08-05

2022-07-15

$Ford(F)$now then moon?

2022-05-09

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Tiger should not come to SG lar...

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333375052513288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333373770776744,"gmtCreate":1722433431828,"gmtModify":1722433437833,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> unbelieveable, congrats to those who bought during the dip.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> unbelieveable, congrats to those who bought during the dip.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ unbelieveable, congrats to those who bought during the dip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333373770776744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333373395329208,"gmtCreate":1722433305458,"gmtModify":1722433313746,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333373395329208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316096671232280,"gmtCreate":1718201783495,"gmtModify":1718201787890,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Amazing.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Amazing.","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Amazing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316096671232280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311496913645584,"gmtCreate":1717074783997,"gmtModify":1717074787403,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","listText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","text":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311496913645584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283281788170384,"gmtCreate":1710169257803,"gmtModify":1710231376299,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA 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1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281782493761760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279488925847608,"gmtCreate":1709256046972,"gmtModify":1709256049905,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ &nbsp;</a>Back to earth","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ &nbsp;</a>Back to earth","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Back to earth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/279488925847608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274614685925664,"gmtCreate":1708082397474,"gmtModify":1708082400251,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","text":"$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274614685925664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559700461523213","authorId":"3559700461523213","authorIdStr":"3559700461523213","name":"Dont be weak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b3e51be6a54224a834dd01de25f3cc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559700461523213"},"content":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","text":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","html":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273837718921512,"gmtCreate":1707892863283,"gmtModify":1707892867475,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","listText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","text":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273837718921512","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270930762252352,"gmtCreate":1707183136762,"gmtModify":1707183139548,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>800","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>800","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 800","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270930762252352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264849263505432,"gmtCreate":1705684490587,"gmtModify":1705684492258,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 200 coming","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 200 coming","text":"$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 200 coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264849263505432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249926523171032,"gmtCreate":1702036273058,"gmtModify":1702036277890,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","listText":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","text":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249926523171032","repostId":"1124603759","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124603759","pubTimestamp":1702004243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124603759?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-08 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124603759","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.Ad","content":"<html><head></head><body><h4 id=\"id_3931243577\" style=\"text-align: start;\">ZINGER KEY POINTS</h4><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. </strong>shares rallied Thursday after the company announced thelaunched of its new GenAI chip.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Raymond James On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Srini Pajjuri </strong>maintained a Strong Buy rating while raising the price target from $125 to $140.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“AMD officially launched its Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeted for AI/ML workloads,” Pajjuri said in a note.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong>, <strong>Oracle Corp</strong> and <strong>Meta Platforms Inc </strong>took the stage with major server OEM customers, “highlighting the broad-based design win momentum,” he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are particularly encouraged by META’s plans to use MI300X for inferencing, as we believe internal workloads are important for sustained volume ramps in the near term,” the analyst stated. Meta’s comments suggested</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“AMD’s Software is maturing fast,” he further said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Goldman Sachs On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Toshiya Hari</strong> reiterated a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $125 to $137.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Advanced Micro Devices indicated a larger TAM (total addressable market) of $45 billion, versus its earlier estimate of $35 billion, Hari stated.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">With broadening customer engagements and expectations of an acceleration in the rate of AI adoption, the company raised its Data Center accelerator TAM for 2027 from around $150 billion to around $400 billion, representing a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of more than 70%, he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Mizuho Securities On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Vijay Rakesh</strong> reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $130.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although Advanced Micro Devices raised its AI/DC TAM to $400 billion, “there is some investor concern on AMD not raising its AI or overall 2024 outlook despite the higher TAM,” Rajesh wrote in a note.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are estimating AMD DC revs 1Q24E up 1% q/q (cons. $2.2B, down 3% q/q),” he added. ROCm development seems to be a top priority for the company to compete against<strong> NVIDIA Corp.’s </strong>CUDA, “which is the key competitive advantage over potential peers,” the analyst further stated.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-08 10:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124603759","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. shares rallied Thursday after the company announced thelaunched of its new GenAI chip.Raymond James On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Srini Pajjuri maintained a Strong Buy rating while raising the price target from $125 to $140.“AMD officially launched its Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeted for AI/ML workloads,” Pajjuri said in a note.Microsoft Corp., Oracle Corp and Meta Platforms Inc took the stage with major server OEM customers, “highlighting the broad-based design win momentum,” he added.“We are particularly encouraged by META’s plans to use MI300X for inferencing, as we believe internal workloads are important for sustained volume ramps in the near term,” the analyst stated. Meta’s comments suggested“AMD’s Software is maturing fast,” he further said.Goldman Sachs On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Toshiya Hari reiterated a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $125 to $137.Advanced Micro Devices indicated a larger TAM (total addressable market) of $45 billion, versus its earlier estimate of $35 billion, Hari stated.With broadening customer engagements and expectations of an acceleration in the rate of AI adoption, the company raised its Data Center accelerator TAM for 2027 from around $150 billion to around $400 billion, representing a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of more than 70%, he added.Mizuho Securities On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Vijay Rakesh reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $130.Although Advanced Micro Devices raised its AI/DC TAM to $400 billion, “there is some investor concern on AMD not raising its AI or overall 2024 outlook despite the higher TAM,” Rajesh wrote in a note.“We are estimating AMD DC revs 1Q24E up 1% q/q (cons. $2.2B, down 3% q/q),” he added. ROCm development seems to be a top priority for the company to compete against NVIDIA Corp.’s CUDA, “which is the key competitive advantage over potential peers,” the analyst further stated.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":192588381229224,"gmtCreate":1688048297858,"gmtModify":1688048301218,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRCB\">$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ &nbsp;</a>Better run 1st","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRCB\">$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ &nbsp;</a>Better run 1st","text":"$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ Better run 1st","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192588381229224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4140417619644592","authorId":"4140417619644592","authorIdStr":"4140417619644592","name":"DavidSoros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4140417619644592"},"content":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together","text":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together","html":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970465971,"gmtCreate":1684838850794,"gmtModify":1684840045189,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BTOU.SI\">$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BTOU.SI\">$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","text":"$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970465971","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053840656,"gmtCreate":1654522377875,"gmtModify":1676535461526,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>End investigation -&gt; delisting coming?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>End investigation -&gt; delisting coming?","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$End investigation -> delisting coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053840656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187906712322152,"gmtCreate":1686903472443,"gmtModify":1686903475783,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>A bit over rated at the moment...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>A bit over rated at the moment...","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ A bit over rated at the moment...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187906712322152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575426937784230","authorId":"3575426937784230","authorIdStr":"3575426937784230","name":"MaxGain","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7ec5528a5a65cfeab0826428adcb08","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575426937784230"},"content":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!","text":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!","html":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335513539719600,"gmtCreate":1722950952812,"gmtModify":1722950955768,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> sale is over?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> sale is over?","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ sale is over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335513539719600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311496913645584,"gmtCreate":1717074783997,"gmtModify":1717074787403,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","listText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","text":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311496913645584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274614685925664,"gmtCreate":1708082397474,"gmtModify":1708082400251,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","text":"$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274614685925664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559700461523213","authorId":"3559700461523213","authorIdStr":"3559700461523213","name":"Dont be weak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b3e51be6a54224a834dd01de25f3cc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559700461523213"},"content":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","text":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","html":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934296967,"gmtCreate":1663251709459,"gmtModify":1676537236988,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>why keep falling?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>why keep falling?","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$why keep falling?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934296967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343352201150720,"gmtCreate":1724855746849,"gmtModify":1724855748967,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 150","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 150","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 150","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343352201150720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":48,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199993467998224,"gmtCreate":1689860884154,"gmtModify":1689860886519,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ 200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199993467998224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4152970971288522","authorId":"4152970971288522","authorIdStr":"4152970971288522","name":"岁月..","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0606867cb2816c4aca984aef7473ca21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4152970971288522"},"content":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","text":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","html":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082837730,"gmtCreate":1650549100627,"gmtModify":1676534749253,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>crap...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>crap...","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$crap...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082837730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273837718921512,"gmtCreate":1707892863283,"gmtModify":1707892867475,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","listText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","text":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273837718921512","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2411108323","pubTimestamp":1707888619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2411108323?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-14 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411108323","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ex","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.</p></li><li><p>The history of AMD&#39;s stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aabf8f669b54b622ae2fb759d2b2316b\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it&#39;s known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.</p><p>A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to &#34;survive the flood,&#34; I&#39;m going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.</p><h2 id=\"id_556213205\">Reverse-Engineering the Valuation</h2><p>The first thing is to unpack is what&#39;s reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it&#39;s one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00d177cd1702da079ab895431c41384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD&#39;s GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it&#39;s selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3eaeebf982d09df3ec2373c95983855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculation</p><p></p><p>If we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.</p><p>Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>, it&#39;s a handy gauge for investors looking for &#34;growth at a reasonable price.&#34; Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren&#39;t standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:</p><blockquote><p>My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I&#39;m wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.</p></blockquote><p>&#34;What that means&#34; is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:</p><blockquote><p>...wonderful companies become risky investments <em>when people overpay</em>, using McDonald&#39;s as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to &#34;live up to these expectations,&#34; the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a &#34;more realistic&#34; 13 times earnings.</p></blockquote><p>McDonald&#39;s is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.</p><p>What&#39;s the impact of AI to AMD&#39;s earnings? We don&#39;t know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4228085524\">Mystery of AI-Driven Growth</h2><p>The company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.</p><p>What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I&#39;ve seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let&#39;s just observe carefully what it says the abstract:</p><blockquote><p>The AI market covers a <strong>vast number of industries</strong>. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business&#39;s fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.</p><p>I also mentioned McDonald&#39;s above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald&#39;s in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn&#39;t matter whose car you bought.</p><p>Fast food doesn&#39;t care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it&#39;s been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there&#39;s always an element of trial and error that spans years.</p><p>Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn&#39;t occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.</p><h2 id=\"id_1489106187\">History of the Share Price</h2><p>Unlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock&#39;s history. To assist further, here are the prices:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>May 29, 2000: <strong>$45.07</strong></p></li><li><p>Feb. 13, 2006: <strong>$40.33</strong></p></li><li><p>Nov. 22, 2021: <strong>$154.81</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e87029494fe2cf84ad2467f7b91c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD&#39;s chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.</p><p>With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d60b236bc55a2e60558e8a5c3a74b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today&#39;s peak is only about 4x that of 2000&#39;s, the market cap is more than 20x. Today&#39;s stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000&#39;s price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that&#39;s another major risk that investors are overlooking.</p><h2 id=\"id_3991879825\">The Indirect Capex of SBC</h2><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.</p><p>Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don&#39;t count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dd6ee8d5cb8fd52b4ef0f08e2ad7cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)</p><p></p><p>Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.</p><p>Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it&#39;s a subtle detail that investors should know.</p><p>Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD&#39;s multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.</p><h2 id=\"id_1541592541\">Conclusion</h2><p>The parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn&#39;t save him, and God tells him, &#34;I sent you two boats and a helicopter.&#34;</p><p>In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.</p><p>Folks don&#39;t make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don&#39;t make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it&#39;s wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-14 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","INTC":"英特尔","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","MCD":"麦当劳","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411108323","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.The history of AMD's stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it's known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to \"survive the flood,\" I'm going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.Reverse-Engineering the ValuationThe first thing is to unpack is what's reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it's one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)It's been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD's GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it's selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.Author's calculationIf we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, One Up on Wall Street, it's a handy gauge for investors looking for \"growth at a reasonable price.\" Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren't standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I'm wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.\"What that means\" is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:...wonderful companies become risky investments when people overpay, using McDonald's as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to \"live up to these expectations,\" the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a \"more realistic\" 13 times earnings.McDonald's is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.What's the impact of AI to AMD's earnings? We don't know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.Mystery of AI-Driven GrowthThe company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I've seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let's just observe carefully what it says the abstract:The AI market covers a vast number of industries. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business's fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.I also mentioned McDonald's above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald's in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn't matter whose car you bought.Fast food doesn't care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it's been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there's always an element of trial and error that spans years.Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn't occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.History of the Share PriceUnlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock's history. To assist further, here are the prices:May 29, 2000: $45.07Feb. 13, 2006: $40.33Nov. 22, 2021: $154.81AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD's chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today's peak is only about 4x that of 2000's, the market cap is more than 20x. Today's stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000's price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that's another major risk that investors are overlooking.The Indirect Capex of SBCStock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don't count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it's a subtle detail that investors should know.Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD's multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.ConclusionThe parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn't save him, and God tells him, \"I sent you two boats and a helicopter.\"In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.Folks don't make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don't make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it's wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220224106143840,"gmtCreate":1694787047910,"gmtModify":1694787050933,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","text":"$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220224106143840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094526733194150","authorId":"4094526733194150","authorIdStr":"4094526733194150","name":"Agxm","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4094526733194150"},"content":"Haha that what i want to say.","text":"Haha that what i want to say.","html":"Haha that what i want to say."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184468653437032,"gmtCreate":1686060924661,"gmtModify":1686060929051,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>AI wave","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>AI wave","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ AI wave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184468653437032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988142435,"gmtCreate":1666705821227,"gmtModify":1676537793125,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor 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Power!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187248019497064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902218524,"gmtCreate":1659706489470,"gmtModify":1704700094567,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","authorIdStr":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583566101291811"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Buy","listText":"<a 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