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06-12

$Apple(AAPL)$ Amazing.

05-30

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

03-11

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

03-11

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Good chance to accumulate.

03-09

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

03-07

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 1000

03-01

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Back to earth

02-16

$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?

02-14

Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.

AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already

02-06

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 800

01-20

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 200 coming

2023-12-08

What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?

AMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch

2023-12-05

Happy waiting.

Buying Apple Stock Is a Smart Move, Only if This 1 Thing Happens

2023-10-12

$Apple(AAPL)$ 200 coming soon

2023-10-06

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 100

2023-09-15

$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...

2023-09-15

Hype only, 2nd day no strength liao... better wait it come down more than 40% then go in... patient...

2023-07-20

$Apple(AAPL)$ 200

2023-07-19

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 300

2023-07-19

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ 400

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Amazing.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Amazing.","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Amazing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316096671232280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311496913645584,"gmtCreate":1717074783997,"gmtModify":1717074787403,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","listText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","text":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311496913645584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283281788170384,"gmtCreate":1710169257803,"gmtModify":1710231376299,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283281788170384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283278250729616,"gmtCreate":1710168394170,"gmtModify":1710168397799,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Good chance to accumulate.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Good chance to accumulate.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Good chance to accumulate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283278250729616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282217527541920,"gmtCreate":1709926729068,"gmtModify":1709926730836,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282217527541920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281782493761760,"gmtCreate":1709823159555,"gmtModify":1709823161770,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>1000","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>1000","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281782493761760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279488925847608,"gmtCreate":1709256046972,"gmtModify":1709256049905,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ &nbsp;</a>Back to earth","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ &nbsp;</a>Back to earth","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Back to earth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/279488925847608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274614685925664,"gmtCreate":1708082397474,"gmtModify":1708082400251,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","text":"$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274614685925664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559700461523213","authorId":"3559700461523213","name":"Dont be weak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b3e51be6a54224a834dd01de25f3cc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","text":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","html":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273837718921512,"gmtCreate":1707892863283,"gmtModify":1707892867475,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","listText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","text":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273837718921512","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2411108323","pubTimestamp":1707888619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2411108323?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-14 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411108323","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ex","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.</p></li><li><p>The history of AMD&#39;s stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aabf8f669b54b622ae2fb759d2b2316b\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it&#39;s known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.</p><p>A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to &#34;survive the flood,&#34; I&#39;m going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.</p><h2 id=\"id_556213205\">Reverse-Engineering the Valuation</h2><p>The first thing is to unpack is what&#39;s reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it&#39;s one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00d177cd1702da079ab895431c41384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD&#39;s GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it&#39;s selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3eaeebf982d09df3ec2373c95983855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculation</p><p></p><p>If we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.</p><p>Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>, it&#39;s a handy gauge for investors looking for &#34;growth at a reasonable price.&#34; Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren&#39;t standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:</p><blockquote><p>My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I&#39;m wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.</p></blockquote><p>&#34;What that means&#34; is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:</p><blockquote><p>...wonderful companies become risky investments <em>when people overpay</em>, using McDonald&#39;s as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to &#34;live up to these expectations,&#34; the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a &#34;more realistic&#34; 13 times earnings.</p></blockquote><p>McDonald&#39;s is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.</p><p>What&#39;s the impact of AI to AMD&#39;s earnings? We don&#39;t know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4228085524\">Mystery of AI-Driven Growth</h2><p>The company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.</p><p>What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I&#39;ve seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let&#39;s just observe carefully what it says the abstract:</p><blockquote><p>The AI market covers a <strong>vast number of industries</strong>. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business&#39;s fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.</p><p>I also mentioned McDonald&#39;s above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald&#39;s in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn&#39;t matter whose car you bought.</p><p>Fast food doesn&#39;t care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it&#39;s been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there&#39;s always an element of trial and error that spans years.</p><p>Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn&#39;t occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.</p><h2 id=\"id_1489106187\">History of the Share Price</h2><p>Unlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock&#39;s history. To assist further, here are the prices:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>May 29, 2000: <strong>$45.07</strong></p></li><li><p>Feb. 13, 2006: <strong>$40.33</strong></p></li><li><p>Nov. 22, 2021: <strong>$154.81</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e87029494fe2cf84ad2467f7b91c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD&#39;s chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.</p><p>With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d60b236bc55a2e60558e8a5c3a74b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today&#39;s peak is only about 4x that of 2000&#39;s, the market cap is more than 20x. Today&#39;s stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000&#39;s price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that&#39;s another major risk that investors are overlooking.</p><h2 id=\"id_3991879825\">The Indirect Capex of SBC</h2><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.</p><p>Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don&#39;t count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dd6ee8d5cb8fd52b4ef0f08e2ad7cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)</p><p></p><p>Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.</p><p>Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it&#39;s a subtle detail that investors should know.</p><p>Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD&#39;s multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.</p><h2 id=\"id_1541592541\">Conclusion</h2><p>The parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn&#39;t save him, and God tells him, &#34;I sent you two boats and a helicopter.&#34;</p><p>In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.</p><p>Folks don&#39;t make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don&#39;t make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it&#39;s wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-14 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","INTC":"英特尔","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","MCD":"麦当劳","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411108323","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.The history of AMD's stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it's known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to \"survive the flood,\" I'm going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.Reverse-Engineering the ValuationThe first thing is to unpack is what's reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it's one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)It's been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD's GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it's selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.Author's calculationIf we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, One Up on Wall Street, it's a handy gauge for investors looking for \"growth at a reasonable price.\" Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren't standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I'm wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.\"What that means\" is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:...wonderful companies become risky investments when people overpay, using McDonald's as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to \"live up to these expectations,\" the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a \"more realistic\" 13 times earnings.McDonald's is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.What's the impact of AI to AMD's earnings? We don't know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.Mystery of AI-Driven GrowthThe company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I've seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let's just observe carefully what it says the abstract:The AI market covers a vast number of industries. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business's fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.I also mentioned McDonald's above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald's in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn't matter whose car you bought.Fast food doesn't care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it's been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there's always an element of trial and error that spans years.Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn't occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.History of the Share PriceUnlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock's history. To assist further, here are the prices:May 29, 2000: $45.07Feb. 13, 2006: $40.33Nov. 22, 2021: $154.81AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD's chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today's peak is only about 4x that of 2000's, the market cap is more than 20x. Today's stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000's price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that's another major risk that investors are overlooking.The Indirect Capex of SBCStock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don't count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it's a subtle detail that investors should know.Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD's multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.ConclusionThe parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn't save him, and God tells him, \"I sent you two boats and a helicopter.\"In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.Folks don't make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don't make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it's wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270930762252352,"gmtCreate":1707183136762,"gmtModify":1707183139548,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>800","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>800","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 800","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270930762252352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264849263505432,"gmtCreate":1705684490587,"gmtModify":1705684492258,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 200 coming","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 200 coming","text":"$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 200 coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264849263505432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249926523171032,"gmtCreate":1702036273058,"gmtModify":1702036277890,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","listText":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","text":"What's point of buying if no dividend declared after so many years?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249926523171032","repostId":"1124603759","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124603759","pubTimestamp":1702004243,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124603759?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-08 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124603759","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.Ad","content":"<html><head></head><body><h4 id=\"id_3931243577\" style=\"text-align: start;\">ZINGER KEY POINTS</h4><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. </strong>shares rallied Thursday after the company announced thelaunched of its new GenAI chip.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Raymond James On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Srini Pajjuri </strong>maintained a Strong Buy rating while raising the price target from $125 to $140.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“AMD officially launched its Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeted for AI/ML workloads,” Pajjuri said in a note.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong>, <strong>Oracle Corp</strong> and <strong>Meta Platforms Inc </strong>took the stage with major server OEM customers, “highlighting the broad-based design win momentum,” he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are particularly encouraged by META’s plans to use MI300X for inferencing, as we believe internal workloads are important for sustained volume ramps in the near term,” the analyst stated. Meta’s comments suggested</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“AMD’s Software is maturing fast,” he further said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Goldman Sachs On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Toshiya Hari</strong> reiterated a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $125 to $137.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Advanced Micro Devices indicated a larger TAM (total addressable market) of $45 billion, versus its earlier estimate of $35 billion, Hari stated.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">With broadening customer engagements and expectations of an acceleration in the rate of AI adoption, the company raised its Data Center accelerator TAM for 2027 from around $150 billion to around $400 billion, representing a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of more than 70%, he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Mizuho Securities On Advanced Micro Devices</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Analyst <strong>Vijay Rakesh</strong> reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $130.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although Advanced Micro Devices raised its AI/DC TAM to $400 billion, “there is some investor concern on AMD not raising its AI or overall 2024 outlook despite the higher TAM,” Rajesh wrote in a note.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are estimating AMD DC revs 1Q24E up 1% q/q (cons. $2.2B, down 3% q/q),” he added. ROCm development seems to be a top priority for the company to compete against<strong> NVIDIA Corp.’s </strong>CUDA, “which is the key competitive advantage over potential peers,” the analyst further stated.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Projects $45B AI Chip Market In 2023: Analysts Say Chipmaker Maturing Fast After GPU Launch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-08 10:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36142456/advanced-micro-devices-projects-45b-ai-chip-market-in-2023-analysts-take-a-look-at-","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124603759","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAdvanced Micro Devices launches Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeting AI and ML workloads.AMD increases its 2027 data center accelerator TAM from around $150bn to around $400bn.Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. shares rallied Thursday after the company announced thelaunched of its new GenAI chip.Raymond James On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Srini Pajjuri maintained a Strong Buy rating while raising the price target from $125 to $140.“AMD officially launched its Instinct MI300X Data Center GPU targeted for AI/ML workloads,” Pajjuri said in a note.Microsoft Corp., Oracle Corp and Meta Platforms Inc took the stage with major server OEM customers, “highlighting the broad-based design win momentum,” he added.“We are particularly encouraged by META’s plans to use MI300X for inferencing, as we believe internal workloads are important for sustained volume ramps in the near term,” the analyst stated. Meta’s comments suggested“AMD’s Software is maturing fast,” he further said.Goldman Sachs On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Toshiya Hari reiterated a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $125 to $137.Advanced Micro Devices indicated a larger TAM (total addressable market) of $45 billion, versus its earlier estimate of $35 billion, Hari stated.With broadening customer engagements and expectations of an acceleration in the rate of AI adoption, the company raised its Data Center accelerator TAM for 2027 from around $150 billion to around $400 billion, representing a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of more than 70%, he added.Mizuho Securities On Advanced Micro DevicesAnalyst Vijay Rakesh reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $130.Although Advanced Micro Devices raised its AI/DC TAM to $400 billion, “there is some investor concern on AMD not raising its AI or overall 2024 outlook despite the higher TAM,” Rajesh wrote in a note.“We are estimating AMD DC revs 1Q24E up 1% q/q (cons. $2.2B, down 3% q/q),” he added. ROCm development seems to be a top priority for the company to compete against NVIDIA Corp.’s CUDA, “which is the key competitive advantage over potential peers,” the analyst further stated.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":248852941385960,"gmtCreate":1701787056232,"gmtModify":1701787060451,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy waiting.","listText":"Happy waiting.","text":"Happy waiting.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248852941385960","repostId":"2388870731","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2388870731","pubTimestamp":1701755771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2388870731?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-05 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying Apple Stock Is a Smart Move, Only if This 1 Thing Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2388870731","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's best to look at the facts to come to the right conclusion.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>In the last five years, <strong>Apple</strong> (AAPL) shares have soared 328%. This is a better gain than the overall market, which is impressive given the tech giant&#39;s massive size.</p><p>Even this year, this tech business has crushed the broader <strong>Nasdaq Composite Index</strong>. Investor optimism appears to have picked up a lot of steam lately.</p><p>But to be clear, buying this top FAANG stock right now doesn&#39;t look like a good idea unless this one thing happens. Here&#39;s something investors should think about.</p><h2 id=\"id_922573303\">Premium pricing</h2><p>Apple is well-known for selling some of the most in-demand hardware products on the planet, like the iPhone, MacBook, and AirPods. These products have made Apple one of the most powerful brands, as well as one of the most profitable companies.</p><p>Most importantly, these hardware items possess pricing power. People seem to almost always be willing to pay for them. The average retail iPhone price is nearly $1,000.</p><p>Selling expensive merchandise agrees with the fact that Apple&#39;s share price also carries a premium price tag. After a monumental rise in the last few years, the stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31. That&#39;s about a 50% premium to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and to Apple&#39;s trailing 10-year average valuation.</p><p>The current P/E multiple is the most obvious reason that investors should not buy the stock right now. Consequently, it only makes sense to add shares of Apple to your portfolio if the P/E ratio declines substantially.</p><h2 id=\"id_253838888\">No growth</h2><p>Investors who pay the P/E of 31 right now should know exactly what they&#39;re buying. Apple&#39;s revenue in fiscal 2023 (ended Sept. 30) was down 2.8% year over year. Net income also declined by the same amount. Yet investors are being asked to pay a high valuation for shares.</p><p>I&#39;m not trying to bash Apple. Without a doubt, this might be the most successful business of all time. I touched on its strong brand and popular products. What&#39;s more, services and software are continuing to become a bigger revenue and profit engine for the company, which can help drive margins up over time.</p><p>These non-hardware aspects of Apple&#39;s offerings also drive tremendous stickiness and loyalty from the customer base. Many companies wish they resonated with consumers the way that Apple does.</p><p>But I think there&#39;s one appropriate question to ask in this situation: What P/E multiple will Apple need to trade at for one to be comfortable buying the stock?</p><p>Based on the mature stage of the business, I&#39;d have to say maybe a P/E of 20. Apple is currently posting zero growth and is registering falling sales and earnings. The stock last traded in this range in March 2020.</p><p>Now, should Apple somehow find ways to boost its top line over the next few years, then I&#39;d be willing to pay a higher multiple. This could happen with a new game-changing product, like the rumored car. It could also happen with new software capabilities.</p><p>As things stand today, however, there&#39;s no way to predict these things with certainty. We have to use the facts in front of us. Unless the stock gets cheaper, this isn&#39;t a good setup for market-beating returns in the years ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying Apple Stock Is a Smart Move, Only if This 1 Thing Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying Apple Stock Is a Smart Move, Only if This 1 Thing Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-05 13:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/04/buying-apple-stock-smart-only-if-1-thing-happens/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the last five years, Apple (AAPL) shares have soared 328%. This is a better gain than the overall market, which is impressive given the tech giant's massive size.Even this year, this tech business ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/04/buying-apple-stock-smart-only-if-1-thing-happens/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4515":"5G概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4576":"AR","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/04/buying-apple-stock-smart-only-if-1-thing-happens/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2388870731","content_text":"In the last five years, Apple (AAPL) shares have soared 328%. This is a better gain than the overall market, which is impressive given the tech giant's massive size.Even this year, this tech business has crushed the broader Nasdaq Composite Index. Investor optimism appears to have picked up a lot of steam lately.But to be clear, buying this top FAANG stock right now doesn't look like a good idea unless this one thing happens. Here's something investors should think about.Premium pricingApple is well-known for selling some of the most in-demand hardware products on the planet, like the iPhone, MacBook, and AirPods. These products have made Apple one of the most powerful brands, as well as one of the most profitable companies.Most importantly, these hardware items possess pricing power. People seem to almost always be willing to pay for them. The average retail iPhone price is nearly $1,000.Selling expensive merchandise agrees with the fact that Apple's share price also carries a premium price tag. After a monumental rise in the last few years, the stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31. That's about a 50% premium to the S&P 500 and to Apple's trailing 10-year average valuation.The current P/E multiple is the most obvious reason that investors should not buy the stock right now. Consequently, it only makes sense to add shares of Apple to your portfolio if the P/E ratio declines substantially.No growthInvestors who pay the P/E of 31 right now should know exactly what they're buying. Apple's revenue in fiscal 2023 (ended Sept. 30) was down 2.8% year over year. Net income also declined by the same amount. Yet investors are being asked to pay a high valuation for shares.I'm not trying to bash Apple. Without a doubt, this might be the most successful business of all time. I touched on its strong brand and popular products. What's more, services and software are continuing to become a bigger revenue and profit engine for the company, which can help drive margins up over time.These non-hardware aspects of Apple's offerings also drive tremendous stickiness and loyalty from the customer base. Many companies wish they resonated with consumers the way that Apple does.But I think there's one appropriate question to ask in this situation: What P/E multiple will Apple need to trade at for one to be comfortable buying the stock?Based on the mature stage of the business, I'd have to say maybe a P/E of 20. Apple is currently posting zero growth and is registering falling sales and earnings. The stock last traded in this range in March 2020.Now, should Apple somehow find ways to boost its top line over the next few years, then I'd be willing to pay a higher multiple. This could happen with a new game-changing product, like the rumored car. It could also happen with new software capabilities.As things stand today, however, there's no way to predict these things with certainty. We have to use the facts in front of us. Unless the stock gets cheaper, this isn't a good setup for market-beating returns in the years ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":229687638515824,"gmtCreate":1697117924492,"gmtModify":1697117927678,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200 coming soon","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200 coming soon","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ 200 coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/229687638515824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":227674975576184,"gmtCreate":1696593800314,"gmtModify":1696593803008,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a>100","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a>100","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/227674975576184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220224106143840,"gmtCreate":1694787047910,"gmtModify":1694787050933,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","text":"$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220224106143840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094526733194150","authorId":"4094526733194150","name":"Agxm","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Haha that what i want to say.","text":"Haha that what i want to say.","html":"Haha that what i want to say."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220218432151576,"gmtCreate":1694785502026,"gmtModify":1694785507334,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hype only, 2nd day no strength liao... better wait it come down more than 40% then go in... patient...","listText":"Hype only, 2nd day no strength liao... better wait it come down more than 40% then go in... patient...","text":"Hype only, 2nd day no strength liao... better wait it come down more than 40% then go in... patient...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220218432151576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199993467998224,"gmtCreate":1689860884154,"gmtModify":1689860886519,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ 200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199993467998224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4152970971288522","authorId":"4152970971288522","name":"岁月..","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0606867cb2816c4aca984aef7473ca21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","text":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","html":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199611848097936,"gmtCreate":1689775107299,"gmtModify":1689775109834,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>300","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>300","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 300","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199611848097936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199605635932320,"gmtCreate":1689773602437,"gmtModify":1689773605112,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$&nbsp;</a>400","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$&nbsp;</a>400","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ 400","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199605635932320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":192588381229224,"gmtCreate":1688048297858,"gmtModify":1688048301218,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRCB\">$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ &nbsp;</a>Better run 1st","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRCB\">$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ &nbsp;</a>Better run 1st","text":"$First Republic Bank(FRCB)$ Better run 1st","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192588381229224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4140417619644592","authorId":"4140417619644592","name":"DavidSoros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together","text":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together","html":"Don't fool others to sell themselves, bargain-hunting and make money together"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970465971,"gmtCreate":1684838850794,"gmtModify":1684840045189,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BTOU.SI\">$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BTOU.SI\">$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","text":"$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ wa lau sian, should have loaded more @0.15.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970465971","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053840656,"gmtCreate":1654522377875,"gmtModify":1676535461526,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>End investigation -&gt; delisting coming?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>End investigation -&gt; delisting coming?","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$End investigation -> delisting coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053840656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187906712322152,"gmtCreate":1686903472443,"gmtModify":1686903475783,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>A bit over rated at the moment...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>A bit over rated at the moment...","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ A bit over rated at the moment...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187906712322152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575426937784230","authorId":"3575426937784230","name":"MaxGain","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7ec5528a5a65cfeab0826428adcb08","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!","text":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!","html":"It is freaking $6 stock, what are these people smoking!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311496913645584,"gmtCreate":1717074783997,"gmtModify":1717074787403,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","listText":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","text":"Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311496913645584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274614685925664,"gmtCreate":1708082397474,"gmtModify":1708082400251,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXMU.SI\">$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ &nbsp;</a>any news coming&nbsp; dividend suspend?","text":"$Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ any news coming dividend suspend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274614685925664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559700461523213","authorId":"3559700461523213","name":"Dont be weak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b3e51be6a54224a834dd01de25f3cc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","text":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770","html":"After earnings report https://investor.primeusreit.com/news.html/id/2477770"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934296967,"gmtCreate":1663251709459,"gmtModify":1676537236988,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>why keep falling?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>why keep falling?","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$why keep falling?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934296967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199993467998224,"gmtCreate":1689860884154,"gmtModify":1689860886519,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>200&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ 200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199993467998224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4152970971288522","authorId":"4152970971288522","name":"岁月..","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0606867cb2816c4aca984aef7473ca21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","text":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good","html":"Even if 200, it will take some time. Gary is good"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082837730,"gmtCreate":1650549100627,"gmtModify":1676534749253,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>crap...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>crap...","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$crap...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082837730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273837718921512,"gmtCreate":1707892863283,"gmtModify":1707892867475,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","listText":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","text":"Author want to push down price and then buy low lor.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273837718921512","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2411108323","pubTimestamp":1707888619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2411108323?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-14 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411108323","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ex","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.</p></li><li><p>The history of AMD&#39;s stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aabf8f669b54b622ae2fb759d2b2316b\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it&#39;s known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.</p><p>A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to &#34;survive the flood,&#34; I&#39;m going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.</p><h2 id=\"id_556213205\">Reverse-Engineering the Valuation</h2><p>The first thing is to unpack is what&#39;s reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it&#39;s one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00d177cd1702da079ab895431c41384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD&#39;s GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it&#39;s selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3eaeebf982d09df3ec2373c95983855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculation</p><p></p><p>If we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.</p><p>Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>, it&#39;s a handy gauge for investors looking for &#34;growth at a reasonable price.&#34; Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren&#39;t standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:</p><blockquote><p>My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I&#39;m wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.</p></blockquote><p>&#34;What that means&#34; is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:</p><blockquote><p>...wonderful companies become risky investments <em>when people overpay</em>, using McDonald&#39;s as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to &#34;live up to these expectations,&#34; the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a &#34;more realistic&#34; 13 times earnings.</p></blockquote><p>McDonald&#39;s is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.</p><p>What&#39;s the impact of AI to AMD&#39;s earnings? We don&#39;t know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4228085524\">Mystery of AI-Driven Growth</h2><p>The company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.</p><p>What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I&#39;ve seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let&#39;s just observe carefully what it says the abstract:</p><blockquote><p>The AI market covers a <strong>vast number of industries</strong>. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business&#39;s fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.</p><p>I also mentioned McDonald&#39;s above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald&#39;s in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn&#39;t matter whose car you bought.</p><p>Fast food doesn&#39;t care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it&#39;s been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there&#39;s always an element of trial and error that spans years.</p><p>Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn&#39;t occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.</p><h2 id=\"id_1489106187\">History of the Share Price</h2><p>Unlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock&#39;s history. To assist further, here are the prices:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>May 29, 2000: <strong>$45.07</strong></p></li><li><p>Feb. 13, 2006: <strong>$40.33</strong></p></li><li><p>Nov. 22, 2021: <strong>$154.81</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e87029494fe2cf84ad2467f7b91c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD&#39;s chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.</p><p>With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d60b236bc55a2e60558e8a5c3a74b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today&#39;s peak is only about 4x that of 2000&#39;s, the market cap is more than 20x. Today&#39;s stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000&#39;s price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that&#39;s another major risk that investors are overlooking.</p><h2 id=\"id_3991879825\">The Indirect Capex of SBC</h2><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.</p><p>Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don&#39;t count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dd6ee8d5cb8fd52b4ef0f08e2ad7cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)</p><p></p><p>Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.</p><p>Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it&#39;s a subtle detail that investors should know.</p><p>Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD&#39;s multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.</p><h2 id=\"id_1541592541\">Conclusion</h2><p>The parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn&#39;t save him, and God tells him, &#34;I sent you two boats and a helicopter.&#34;</p><p>In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.</p><p>Folks don&#39;t make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don&#39;t make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it&#39;s wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-14 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","INTC":"英特尔","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","MCD":"麦当劳","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411108323","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.The history of AMD's stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it's known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to \"survive the flood,\" I'm going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.Reverse-Engineering the ValuationThe first thing is to unpack is what's reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it's one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)It's been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD's GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it's selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.Author's calculationIf we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, One Up on Wall Street, it's a handy gauge for investors looking for \"growth at a reasonable price.\" Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren't standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I'm wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.\"What that means\" is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:...wonderful companies become risky investments when people overpay, using McDonald's as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to \"live up to these expectations,\" the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a \"more realistic\" 13 times earnings.McDonald's is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.What's the impact of AI to AMD's earnings? We don't know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.Mystery of AI-Driven GrowthThe company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I've seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let's just observe carefully what it says the abstract:The AI market covers a vast number of industries. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business's fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.I also mentioned McDonald's above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald's in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn't matter whose car you bought.Fast food doesn't care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it's been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there's always an element of trial and error that spans years.Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn't occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.History of the Share PriceUnlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock's history. To assist further, here are the prices:May 29, 2000: $45.07Feb. 13, 2006: $40.33Nov. 22, 2021: $154.81AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD's chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today's peak is only about 4x that of 2000's, the market cap is more than 20x. Today's stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000's price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that's another major risk that investors are overlooking.The Indirect Capex of SBCStock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don't count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it's a subtle detail that investors should know.Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD's multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.ConclusionThe parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn't save him, and God tells him, \"I sent you two boats and a helicopter.\"In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.Folks don't make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don't make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it's wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220224106143840,"gmtCreate":1694787047910,"gmtModify":1694787050933,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","text":"$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Hype only, 2nd day no strength... better wait come down more than 40% then in... patient...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220224106143840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094526733194150","authorId":"4094526733194150","name":"Agxm","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Haha that what i want to say.","text":"Haha that what i want to say.","html":"Haha that what i want to say."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184468653437032,"gmtCreate":1686060924661,"gmtModify":1686060929051,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>AI wave","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>AI wave","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ AI wave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184468653437032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988142435,"gmtCreate":1666705821227,"gmtModify":1676537793125,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$Cui this stock and analyst keep saying this stock is good...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988142435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199611848097936,"gmtCreate":1689775107299,"gmtModify":1689775109834,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>300","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>300","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 300","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199611848097936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187248019497064,"gmtCreate":1686742658764,"gmtModify":1686742661815,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>Power!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>Power!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Power!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187248019497064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902218524,"gmtCreate":1659706489470,"gmtModify":1704700094567,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Buy","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902218524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076477751,"gmtCreate":1657898443873,"gmtModify":1676536079172,"author":{"id":"3583566101291811","authorId":"3583566101291811","name":"areetis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F\">$Ford(F)$</a>now then moon?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F\">$Ford(F)$</a>now then moon?","text":"$Ford(F)$now then 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