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2021-06-16

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2021-06-17

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The "super cycle" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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What does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?

2021-06-17

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The Federal Reserve's "hawkish stance" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?

2021-06-16

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Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?

2021-06-16

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11:00","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118656593","media":"格隆汇","summary":"沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀。","content":"<p>Authors: Deng Haiqing, Wang Shuqin</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected, causing a triple whammy in the US stock, bond, and commodity markets, which were immersed in a \"buffalo\" of overflowing liquidity. the US Dollar Index strengthened while commodities weakened, with inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, falling by nearly 10 basis points, leaving the stories of a \"super cycle\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities in a silence.</p><p><b>I. Inflation exaggeration and speculation are beginning to subside, the market is reacting lukewarmly to high inflation data, and long-term inflation expectations are cooling.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, due to the widespread availability of vaccines and the introduction of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies in developed countries, speculation about \"super cycles\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities has been rampant. Every now and then, the story of \"global inflation is coming\" has caused disturbances in financial markets. The recovery in Europe and the United States, Biden's massive fiscal stimulus, the pandemic and natural disasters in producing countries, and domestic carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have all become reasons for exaggerated speculation on commodities and inflation.</p><p><b>However, judging from recent market sentiment and commodity price trends, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation is beginning to subside, and commodity prices have peaked and fallen. As the base rises, the year-on-year increase has declined significantly, and market views on inflation and central bank monetary policy are gradually changing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc567b396e432095391330753ae952d4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 9, China released its May inflation data. In May, China's PPI continued to rise year-on-year due to factors such as the base and commodity prices, with the PPI rising 9.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008. Judging from the market performance that day, bond yields rose first and then fell, and most market opinions believe that the peak of this year's PPI has been reached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c52071fadad8a28d86ec51444d55a\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 11, the United States released its May inflation data. In May, the US CPI rose 5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since 1992. Judging from the market performance that day, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by nearly 12 basis points, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, have been on a downward trend since mid-May.</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected. The US stock market, bond market, and commodity market, which were immersed in a liquidity-ridden \"buffalo,\" suffered a triple whammy. the US Dollar Index strengthened, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, fell by nearly 10 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a123ebba821ce282f123fc1f1cf68ed\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, commodity price manipulation is an important means of launching a \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 on June 8 local time, its predecessor being the Endless Frontiers Act introduced last May. Although the bill is called \"industrial policy,\" it is more like a \"declaration of war\" against China. Under the guise of innovative themes such as semiconductors, 5G, and space exploration, the content of \"containing China\" is permeated between the lines. The industrial chain between China and the United States, especially in the high-tech field, is booming. As we have pointed out in articles such as \"Seeing the Risks, Part Three: Beware of the Potential 'Supply-Side Attack' on Chinese Manufacturing!\"<b>We must pay close attention to the United States' \"supply-side attack\" on China's supply chain and industrial chain, and the manipulation of commodity prices is an important means of carrying out this \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China implemented effective epidemic prevention and control measures, took the lead in restoring social and economic order, protected manufacturing capacity, and smoothly met overseas demand, laying the foundation for high export growth and becoming an important source of China's economic resilience. Compared to the out-of-control pandemic and social lockdowns in countries like Southeast Asia and India,<b>The stability of China's supply chain has withstood the extreme stress test of the pandemic, attracting international capital to invest and build factories in China.</b></p><p><b>However, the sharp rise in commodity prices this year has led to operational difficulties for some midstream and downstream enterprises.</b>Despite the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the lack of significant expansion in demand has made it difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted downstream, squeezing corporate profits. In May, China's industrial producer purchase price index (PPI) rose 12.5% year-on-year, while the industrial producer price index (EPI) rose 9.0% year-on-year, a mismatch. Among industrial producer prices, prices in the mining industry rose by 36.4%, prices in the raw materials industry by 18.8%, and prices in the processing industry by 7.4%. The price of consumer goods rose by 0.5%.</p><p><b>Faced with rising commodity prices, some companies that were not devastated by the pandemic have been forced to suspend production and operations, which has challenged the stability of China's supply chain and may prompt some overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, by hyping up the commodity super cycle and creating pressures such as high inflation and a wave of overseas rate hike to induce rate hike by the People's Bank of China, it can increase the financing costs of China's real economy, drive up the appreciation of the RMB, lead to difficulties in the operation of China's real economy, and may also cause the bursting of China's asset price bubble and a debt default crisis, making it easier for international speculative capital to \"harvest China\".</b></p><p><b>Hyping up the commodity supercycle could also induce China to allow the yuan to appreciate to combat rising import costs and hit Chinese exports.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2d6b44ac64759f08838e873e9716388\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Faced with this situation, financial regulatory authorities such as the Financial Stability and Development Commission, the People's Bank of China, and the China Banking and Research Commission should severely crack down on commodity speculation, strictly supervise and curb the flow of funds from speculative capital and financial institutions, enforce the trading order of the derivatives market, reduce the \"overheating\" of commodity prices, and allow commodity prices to return to economic fundamentals.</b></p><p><b>In addition, potential attacks by international capital on China's supply side include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Stigmatizing China under the pretext of human rights and inducing overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain (such as the Xinjiang cotton incident).</b></p><p><b>(2) Relying on technological hegemony to attack China's high-end manufacturing industry, represented by the chip industry, and hinder China's technological progress and industrial upgrading.</b></p><p><b>(3) With the huge attraction of the stock market, the United States excludes companies that are unwilling to join its industrial chain system or that pose a threat to its industrial chain system, while attracting high-quality companies to list in the United States and join the global supply chain system dominated by American companies.</b></p><p><b>(4) Speculating on the RMB exchange rate, inducing or forcing the RMB to appreciate unilaterally, and attacking Chinese export-oriented enterprises.</b>Since the pandemic, China's domestic demand has recovered slowly, while external demand is an important reason supporting the high prosperity of China's manufacturing industry. If exports are affected, the process of China's economic return to normal will inevitably be disrupted.</p><p><b>Third, there is no basis for overall high inflation in China, and inflation is not the main contradiction that the People's Bank of China is currently focusing on in its monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>From the current perspective, China has not been \"fooled\".</b>The People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out in column four that rising global commodity prices may temporarily push up my country's PPI, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. At the recent Lujiazui Forum, Governor Yi stated that my country's PPI growth rate has been relatively high this year, which is partly related to the low base formed by the negative PPI last year. Therefore, we can observe PPI changes from the overall perspective of last year, this year, and next year for three consecutive years. Based on various factors, my country's CPI trend this year is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, with the average CPI increase for the whole year expected to be below 2%.</p><p><b>In a series of articles since March, \"The Da Vinci Code of the Bond Market 'Bulldozer Strategy'—An Exploration of the Breakthrough and Reconstruction of the Modern Central Banking System,\" we have maintained that rising commodity prices are unsustainable and that there is no basis for widespread high inflation in China. The main reasons include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Rising crude oil prices are unlikely to bring imported inflation to China.</b>The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2005 to 2008 was \"China's rapid development + a weak US dollar\"; The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2008 to 2011 was \"demand expansion brought about by China's 'four trillion yuan' plus a weak US dollar\". This round of crude oil price increases is different from the previous two rounds. China's demand has not expanded on a large scale, and the US dollar is not expected to depreciate in the long term. The supply of new energy and shale oil to replace traditional oil has set a ceiling for crude oil price increases, and the rise in oil prices is likely to reach a peak.</p><p><b>(2) CPI lacks upward momentum.</b>The growth rate of residents' income is still in the process of recovery, which has suppressed the release of consumption potential, and there is insufficient momentum in the core CPI. With hog production continuing to recover and pork prices continuing to decline, coupled with the high base effect, the CPI is likely to remain low in the future. PPI has a weak transmission effect on CPI. Historically, since 2015, the trends of China's CPI and PPI have been divergent or even opposite, making it difficult for rising PPI growth to have a transmission effect on CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498b348e62856293d98771abfa38fe74\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) China’s aggregate demand has not expanded significantly, and there are no conditions for overheated demand to lead to high inflation. It is unlikely that China will experience overheated demand inflation again. Economic data from May shows that China's industrial production has reached its peak, and domestic demand is still recovering but has not yet reached the normal level before the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad5be4f1624ce4e0ee853daf4fca6a7\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation is not currently a key risk factor for regulators. Judging from Chairman Guo's speech at the Lujiazui Forum, the main risks and possible countermeasures that regulators are currently focusing on in the financial sector are:</b></p><p>(1) The rebound in the scale of non-performing loans and the housing bubble. The solution is to accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets and use structured monetary policy tools to curb the rapid rise in housing prices in some areas.</p><p>(2) Shadow banking has made a comeback. The solution is to earnestly implement the new asset management regulations.</p><p>(3) Illegal and irregular activities in the financial sector, such as illegal public offering of securities and Ponzi schemes. Responding to the market involves strengthening administrative supervision, legal penalties, and investor education.</p><p>(4) Risks of investing in financial derivatives. The solutions remain investor education and a crackdown on market speculation. Chairman Guo particularly emphasized that those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold, and other commodity futures have little chance of getting rich.</p><p><b>Fourth, the \"super cycle\" is ultimately a short-term frenzy, and the bond market's \"bulldozer\" has not stopped.</b></p><p><b>Recently, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation in the market has begun to subside. The stories of \"super cycles\" in commodities told by major international investment banks are no longer appealing. Inflation is not the main contradiction that central banks focus on in monetary policy, and high inflation is unlikely to be enough to drive bond market yields upwards.</b></p><p><b>The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen from the 1.7% range, and the interest rate differential between China and the US has widened again. It is unlikely that US Treasury yields will be able to drive the upward trend of Chinese bond market yields.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5e2f9286c2ab267583e76cdd32b7c4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This year's government work report calls for further reductions in actual loan interest rates and continued guidance for the financial system to offer benefits to the real economy. This year, it is essential to make financing more convenient for micro and small enterprises and to ensure that overall financing costs remain stable with a slight decline.</p><p>Following the reform of the LPR system, the transmission chain of OMO interest rate, MLF interest rate, LPR interest rate, and loan interest rate has become clearer. According to the first quarter monetary policy implementation report: \"The LPR is formed based on the policy interest rate quote, and the central bank... has improved the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism from the policy interest rate to the LPR interest rate and then to the actual loan interest rate.\" Driving down the actual loan interest rate requires maintaining the stability of the policy interest rate.</p><p><b>This year, we proposed the \"bulldozer strategy,\" believing that there is a trend bull market in the bond market. The two core judgments are: First, the central bank's policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged this year; Second, the tone of \"reasonably ample\" liquidity is likely to remain unchanged this year. Based on this assessment, judging from the current spread between long-term interest rate bond yields, policy interest rates, and market interest rates, there is still room for decline in bond market yields. The intermediate fluctuations are just \"small bumps\" that bring about bull market turbulence and are unlikely to change the overall trend of a bull market.</b></p><p><b>Since June, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield has returned above 3.10%. We recommend that bond market investors continue to adhere to the \"bulldozer strategy\" and seize the window of opportunity to actively allocate to long-term interest rate bonds to earn coupon income!</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Authors: Deng Haiqing, Wang Shuqin</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected, causing a triple whammy in the US stock, bond, and commodity markets, which were immersed in a \"buffalo\" of overflowing liquidity. the US Dollar Index strengthened while commodities weakened, with inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, falling by nearly 10 basis points, leaving the stories of a \"super cycle\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities in a silence.</p><p><b>I. Inflation exaggeration and speculation are beginning to subside, the market is reacting lukewarmly to high inflation data, and long-term inflation expectations are cooling.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, due to the widespread availability of vaccines and the introduction of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies in developed countries, speculation about \"super cycles\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities has been rampant. Every now and then, the story of \"global inflation is coming\" has caused disturbances in financial markets. The recovery in Europe and the United States, Biden's massive fiscal stimulus, the pandemic and natural disasters in producing countries, and domestic carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have all become reasons for exaggerated speculation on commodities and inflation.</p><p><b>However, judging from recent market sentiment and commodity price trends, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation is beginning to subside, and commodity prices have peaked and fallen. As the base rises, the year-on-year increase has declined significantly, and market views on inflation and central bank monetary policy are gradually changing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc567b396e432095391330753ae952d4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 9, China released its May inflation data. In May, China's PPI continued to rise year-on-year due to factors such as the base and commodity prices, with the PPI rising 9.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008. Judging from the market performance that day, bond yields rose first and then fell, and most market opinions believe that the peak of this year's PPI has been reached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c52071fadad8a28d86ec51444d55a\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 11, the United States released its May inflation data. In May, the US CPI rose 5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since 1992. Judging from the market performance that day, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by nearly 12 basis points, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, have been on a downward trend since mid-May.</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected. The US stock market, bond market, and commodity market, which were immersed in a liquidity-ridden \"buffalo,\" suffered a triple whammy. the US Dollar Index strengthened, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, fell by nearly 10 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a123ebba821ce282f123fc1f1cf68ed\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, commodity price manipulation is an important means of launching a \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 on June 8 local time, its predecessor being the Endless Frontiers Act introduced last May. Although the bill is called \"industrial policy,\" it is more like a \"declaration of war\" against China. Under the guise of innovative themes such as semiconductors, 5G, and space exploration, the content of \"containing China\" is permeated between the lines. The industrial chain between China and the United States, especially in the high-tech field, is booming. As we have pointed out in articles such as \"Seeing the Risks, Part Three: Beware of the Potential 'Supply-Side Attack' on Chinese Manufacturing!\"<b>We must pay close attention to the United States' \"supply-side attack\" on China's supply chain and industrial chain, and the manipulation of commodity prices is an important means of carrying out this \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China implemented effective epidemic prevention and control measures, took the lead in restoring social and economic order, protected manufacturing capacity, and smoothly met overseas demand, laying the foundation for high export growth and becoming an important source of China's economic resilience. Compared to the out-of-control pandemic and social lockdowns in countries like Southeast Asia and India,<b>The stability of China's supply chain has withstood the extreme stress test of the pandemic, attracting international capital to invest and build factories in China.</b></p><p><b>However, the sharp rise in commodity prices this year has led to operational difficulties for some midstream and downstream enterprises.</b>Despite the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the lack of significant expansion in demand has made it difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted downstream, squeezing corporate profits. In May, China's industrial producer purchase price index (PPI) rose 12.5% year-on-year, while the industrial producer price index (EPI) rose 9.0% year-on-year, a mismatch. Among industrial producer prices, prices in the mining industry rose by 36.4%, prices in the raw materials industry by 18.8%, and prices in the processing industry by 7.4%. The price of consumer goods rose by 0.5%.</p><p><b>Faced with rising commodity prices, some companies that were not devastated by the pandemic have been forced to suspend production and operations, which has challenged the stability of China's supply chain and may prompt some overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, by hyping up the commodity super cycle and creating pressures such as high inflation and a wave of overseas rate hike to induce rate hike by the People's Bank of China, it can increase the financing costs of China's real economy, drive up the appreciation of the RMB, lead to difficulties in the operation of China's real economy, and may also cause the bursting of China's asset price bubble and a debt default crisis, making it easier for international speculative capital to \"harvest China\".</b></p><p><b>Hyping up the commodity supercycle could also induce China to allow the yuan to appreciate to combat rising import costs and hit Chinese exports.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2d6b44ac64759f08838e873e9716388\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Faced with this situation, financial regulatory authorities such as the Financial Stability and Development Commission, the People's Bank of China, and the China Banking and Research Commission should severely crack down on commodity speculation, strictly supervise and curb the flow of funds from speculative capital and financial institutions, enforce the trading order of the derivatives market, reduce the \"overheating\" of commodity prices, and allow commodity prices to return to economic fundamentals.</b></p><p><b>In addition, potential attacks by international capital on China's supply side include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Stigmatizing China under the pretext of human rights and inducing overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain (such as the Xinjiang cotton incident).</b></p><p><b>(2) Relying on technological hegemony to attack China's high-end manufacturing industry, represented by the chip industry, and hinder China's technological progress and industrial upgrading.</b></p><p><b>(3) With the huge attraction of the stock market, the United States excludes companies that are unwilling to join its industrial chain system or that pose a threat to its industrial chain system, while attracting high-quality companies to list in the United States and join the global supply chain system dominated by American companies.</b></p><p><b>(4) Speculating on the RMB exchange rate, inducing or forcing the RMB to appreciate unilaterally, and attacking Chinese export-oriented enterprises.</b>Since the pandemic, China's domestic demand has recovered slowly, while external demand is an important reason supporting the high prosperity of China's manufacturing industry. If exports are affected, the process of China's economic return to normal will inevitably be disrupted.</p><p><b>Third, there is no basis for overall high inflation in China, and inflation is not the main contradiction that the People's Bank of China is currently focusing on in its monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>From the current perspective, China has not been \"fooled\".</b>The People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out in column four that rising global commodity prices may temporarily push up my country's PPI, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. At the recent Lujiazui Forum, Governor Yi stated that my country's PPI growth rate has been relatively high this year, which is partly related to the low base formed by the negative PPI last year. Therefore, we can observe PPI changes from the overall perspective of last year, this year, and next year for three consecutive years. Based on various factors, my country's CPI trend this year is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, with the average CPI increase for the whole year expected to be below 2%.</p><p><b>In a series of articles since March, \"The Da Vinci Code of the Bond Market 'Bulldozer Strategy'—An Exploration of the Breakthrough and Reconstruction of the Modern Central Banking System,\" we have maintained that rising commodity prices are unsustainable and that there is no basis for widespread high inflation in China. The main reasons include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Rising crude oil prices are unlikely to bring imported inflation to China.</b>The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2005 to 2008 was \"China's rapid development + a weak US dollar\"; The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2008 to 2011 was \"demand expansion brought about by China's 'four trillion yuan' plus a weak US dollar\". This round of crude oil price increases is different from the previous two rounds. China's demand has not expanded on a large scale, and the US dollar is not expected to depreciate in the long term. The supply of new energy and shale oil to replace traditional oil has set a ceiling for crude oil price increases, and the rise in oil prices is likely to reach a peak.</p><p><b>(2) CPI lacks upward momentum.</b>The growth rate of residents' income is still in the process of recovery, which has suppressed the release of consumption potential, and there is insufficient momentum in the core CPI. With hog production continuing to recover and pork prices continuing to decline, coupled with the high base effect, the CPI is likely to remain low in the future. PPI has a weak transmission effect on CPI. Historically, since 2015, the trends of China's CPI and PPI have been divergent or even opposite, making it difficult for rising PPI growth to have a transmission effect on CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498b348e62856293d98771abfa38fe74\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) China’s aggregate demand has not expanded significantly, and there are no conditions for overheated demand to lead to high inflation. It is unlikely that China will experience overheated demand inflation again. Economic data from May shows that China's industrial production has reached its peak, and domestic demand is still recovering but has not yet reached the normal level before the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad5be4f1624ce4e0ee853daf4fca6a7\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation is not currently a key risk factor for regulators. Judging from Chairman Guo's speech at the Lujiazui Forum, the main risks and possible countermeasures that regulators are currently focusing on in the financial sector are:</b></p><p>(1) The rebound in the scale of non-performing loans and the housing bubble. The solution is to accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets and use structured monetary policy tools to curb the rapid rise in housing prices in some areas.</p><p>(2) Shadow banking has made a comeback. The solution is to earnestly implement the new asset management regulations.</p><p>(3) Illegal and irregular activities in the financial sector, such as illegal public offering of securities and Ponzi schemes. Responding to the market involves strengthening administrative supervision, legal penalties, and investor education.</p><p>(4) Risks of investing in financial derivatives. The solutions remain investor education and a crackdown on market speculation. Chairman Guo particularly emphasized that those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold, and other commodity futures have little chance of getting rich.</p><p><b>Fourth, the \"super cycle\" is ultimately a short-term frenzy, and the bond market's \"bulldozer\" has not stopped.</b></p><p><b>Recently, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation in the market has begun to subside. The stories of \"super cycles\" in commodities told by major international investment banks are no longer appealing. Inflation is not the main contradiction that central banks focus on in monetary policy, and high inflation is unlikely to be enough to drive bond market yields upwards.</b></p><p><b>The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen from the 1.7% range, and the interest rate differential between China and the US has widened again. It is unlikely that US Treasury yields will be able to drive the upward trend of Chinese bond market yields.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5e2f9286c2ab267583e76cdd32b7c4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This year's government work report calls for further reductions in actual loan interest rates and continued guidance for the financial system to offer benefits to the real economy. This year, it is essential to make financing more convenient for micro and small enterprises and to ensure that overall financing costs remain stable with a slight decline.</p><p>Following the reform of the LPR system, the transmission chain of OMO interest rate, MLF interest rate, LPR interest rate, and loan interest rate has become clearer. According to the first quarter monetary policy implementation report: \"The LPR is formed based on the policy interest rate quote, and the central bank... has improved the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism from the policy interest rate to the LPR interest rate and then to the actual loan interest rate.\" Driving down the actual loan interest rate requires maintaining the stability of the policy interest rate.</p><p><b>This year, we proposed the \"bulldozer strategy,\" believing that there is a trend bull market in the bond market. The two core judgments are: First, the central bank's policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged this year; Second, the tone of \"reasonably ample\" liquidity is likely to remain unchanged this year. Based on this assessment, judging from the current spread between long-term interest rate bond yields, policy interest rates, and market interest rates, there is still room for decline in bond market yields. The intermediate fluctuations are just \"small bumps\" that bring about bull market turbulence and are unlikely to change the overall trend of a bull market.</b></p><p><b>Since June, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield has returned above 3.10%. We recommend that bond market investors continue to adhere to the \"bulldozer strategy\" and seize the window of opportunity to actively allocate to long-term interest rate bonds to earn coupon income!</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470557\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0be9406e3525c187cc490ba8451964d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470557","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118656593","content_text":"作者：邓海清、汪术勤\n6月17日，美联储6月议息会议鹰派程度超预期，沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀。美元指数走强，大宗商品走弱，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期下跌近10BP，大宗商品“超级周期”、“再通胀交易”故事冷场。\n一、通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，市场对高通胀数据反应冷淡，长期通胀预期降温\n今年以来，由于发达国家疫苗普及和大规模财政刺激政策的推出，大宗商品“超级周期”、“再通胀交易”的炒作甚嚣尘上，每隔一段时间，“全球通胀来了”的故事都要对金融市场进行一次扰动。欧美复苏、拜登大规模财政刺激、生产国疫情和天灾、国内的碳中和碳达峰等等，都成为大宗商品和通胀夸大炒作的理由。\n但从近期市场观点和大宗商品价格走势来看，通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，大宗商品价格见顶回落，随着基数抬升，同比涨幅显著下降，市场对通胀及央行货币政策的看法也逐渐发生转变。\n\n6月9日，中国公布5月通胀数据。5月份，中国PPI同比由于基数和大宗价格等原因继续上行，PPI同比上升9.0%，超出市场预期，创2008年9月以来新高。从当日市场表现来看，债市收益率先上后下，市场多数观点认为今年PPI高点已现。\n\n6月11日，美国公布5月通胀数据。5月份，美国CPI同比上升5%，超出市场预期，创2008年9月以来新高，核心CPI同比增速创1992年以来新高。从当日市场表现来看，10年期美债收益率下跌近12BP，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期5月中旬以来呈下跌趋势。\n6月17日，美联储6月议息会议鹰派程度超预期，沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀，美元指数走强，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期下跌近10BP。\n\n二、大宗商品价格炒作是对中国进行“供给侧攻击”的重要手段\n美国国会参议院在当地时间6月8号投票通过了《2021年美国创新与竞争法案》，其前身正是去年5月提出的《无尽前沿法案》。该法案虽以“产业政策”为名，却更像是一份对华“战斗宣言”，在半导体、5G、太空探索等创新主题的包裹之下，“遏华”内容充斥于字里行间。中美在产业链，尤其是高科技领域产业链的如火如荼。我们在《看见风险系列之三：警惕中国制造可能遭受“供给侧攻击”！！》等文章中已经指出，要高度重视美国针对中国供应链、产业链的“供给侧攻击”，对大宗商品价格的炒作是对中国进行“供给侧攻击”的重要手段。\n2020年新冠疫情发生后，中国疫情防控措施有力，社会经济秩序率先恢复，制造业产能得到保护，顺畅地承接了海外需求，为出口的高增长奠定了基础，成为中国经济韧性的重要来源。相比于东南亚、印度等国的疫情失控和社会封锁，中国的供应链的稳定性承受住了疫情的极限压力测试，吸引国际资本在中国投资建厂。\n但今年以来，大宗商品的大幅涨价导致部分中下游企业经营困难。尽管上游原材料价格涨势凶猛，但由于需求端没有大幅扩张，上游的涨价难以向下游传导，企业盈利受到挤压。5月份中国工业生产者购进价格同比上涨12.5%，工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨9.0%，涨幅不匹配。工业生产者出厂价格中，采掘工业价格上涨36.4%，原材料工业价格上涨18.8%，加工工业价格上涨7.4%。生活资料价格上涨0.5%。\n面对大宗商品价格上涨，未被疫情打垮的部分企业被迫停产、停工，中国供应链的稳定性反而受到挑战，可能促使部分海外企业与中国供应链脱钩。\n同时，通过炒作大宗商品超级周期，制造通胀高企、海外加息潮等压力诱使中国央行加息，可以增加中国实体经济融资成本，同时带动人民币升值，导致中国实体经济经营困难，还可能导致中国资产价格泡沫破裂和出现债务违约危机，便利国际游资“收割中国”。\n炒作大宗商品超级周期，还可以诱使中国允许人民币升值以对抗进口成本上涨，打击中国出口。\n\n面对这种局面，金稳委、一行两会等金融监管部门应严厉打击大宗商品炒作行为，严格监管遏制游资、金融机构资金流向，严肃衍生品市场交易秩序，为大宗商品价格“降虚火”，使大宗商品价格回归经济基本面。\n此外，国际资本对中国供给侧的潜在攻击手段还包括：\n（1）以人权等借口污名化中国，诱导海外企业与中国供应链脱钩（比如新疆棉花事件）。\n（2）凭借科技霸权，打击以芯片行业为代表的中国高端制造业，阻击中国技术进步和产业升级。\n（3）美国凭借股市的巨大吸引力，排斥不愿加入其产业链体系或对其产业链体系有威胁的企业，同时吸引优质企业赴美上市，加入美国企业主导的全球供应链体系。\n（4）炒作人民币汇率，诱使或逼迫人民币单边升值，打击中国出口型企业。疫情后，中国内需恢复较慢，外需是支撑中国制造业高景气的重要原因，如果出口受到影响，中国经济恢复常态化的进程必然受到干扰。\n三、中国不存在全面高通胀的基础，通胀并非当前中国央行货币政策关注的主要矛盾\n从目前来看，中国并未“上当”。央行一季度货币政策执行报告在专栏四中指出，全球大宗商品价格上涨可能阶段性推升我国PPI，但输入性通胀的风险总体可控。不存在长期通胀或通缩的基础。在近日的陆家嘴论坛上，易行长表示，今年以来我国PPI增幅较高，一定程度上与去年PPI为负形成的低基数有关，所以我们可以用去年今年和明年连续三年的整体视角来观察PPI变化。综合各方面因素判断，今年我国CPI走势前低后高，全年的CPI平均涨幅预计在2%以下。\n我们在3月份《债市“推土机策略”的达芬奇密码——探析现代中央银行制度的破题与再造》以来的一系列文章中都坚持认为，大宗商品价格上涨不可持续，中国不存在全面高通胀的基础，主要理由包括：\n（1）原油价格上涨难以给中国带来输入型通胀。2005—2008年原油价格上涨的背景是“中国高速发展+弱美元”；2008—2011年原油价格上涨的背景是“中国‘四万亿’带来的需求扩张+弱美元”。本轮原油价格上涨与前两轮不可同日而语，中国的需求没有大规模扩张，美元也没有长期贬值预期，新能源和页岩油对传统石油的供给替代为原油价格上涨设置了天花板，油价上行大概率有顶。\n（2）CPI缺乏上行动力。居民收入增速仍在恢复过程中，抑制了消费潜力的释放，核心CPI上行动力不足。生猪生产不断恢复，猪肉价格持续回落，加之高基数影响，未来CPI大概率继续低位运行。PPI对CPI传导效应弱，从历史上看，自2015年以来，中国的CPI和PPI走势割裂甚至相反，PPI增速上涨难以对CPI形成传导。\n\n（3）中国的总需求未大幅扩张，不存在需求过热导致通胀高企的条件，中国恐难再现需求过热型通胀。从5月经济数据来看，中国工业生产景气高点已现，内需仍在恢复但尚未达到疫情前正常水平。\n\n通胀并非当前监管层重点关注的风险点。从郭主席在陆家嘴论坛的演讲来看，当前监管层重点关注的金融领域风险和可能的应对方案主要是：\n（1）不良贷款规模反弹和房市泡沫。应对之策是加快不良资产处置力度，运用结构化货币政策工具遏制局部地区房价过快上涨。\n（2）影子银行死灰复燃。应对之策是认真落实资管新规。\n（3）金融领域违法违规行为，如非法公开发行证券和庞氏骗局等。应对市场是加强行政监管、法律处罚和投资者教育。\n（4）金融衍生品投资风险。应对之策还是投资者教育和严厉打击市场炒作。郭主席特别强调，那些炒作外汇、黄金及其他商品期货的人很难有机会发家致富。\n四、“超级周期”终归是短期的狂欢，债市“推土机”并未熄火\n近期市场上通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，国际大投行讲述的大宗商品“超级周期”故事已经“不香了”，通胀并非央行货币政策关注的主要矛盾，高通胀恐难以推动债市收益率趋势性上行。\n近期十年期美债收益率已经由1.7%区间下行，中美利差再度拉大，美债收益率恐难以推动中国债市收益率趋势性上行。\n\n今年政府工作报告要求，推动实际贷款利率进一步降低，继续引导金融系统向实体经济让利。今年务必做到小微企业融资更便利、综合融资成本稳中有降。\n在LPR制度改革后，OMO利率—MLF利率—LPR利率—贷款利率的传导链条更加明确。根据一季度货币政策执行报告：“LPR基于政策利率报价形成，央行……健全从政策利率到LPR利率再到实际贷款利率的市场化利率形成和传导机制。”推动实际贷款利率下降更需要保持政策利率的稳定。\n我们今年提出“推土机策略”，认为债券市场存在趋势性牛市的两大核心判断在于：第一，今年央行政策利率大概率保持不变；第二，今年流动性“合理充裕”的基调大概率保持不变。在此判断的基础上，从当前长端利率债收益率和政策利率、市场利率的利差来看，债券市场收益率依然存在下行空间，中间的震荡只是带来牛市颠簸的“小土包”，难改趋势性牛市大势。\n6月份以来，十年国债收益率再次回到3.10%以上，我们建议债市投资继续坚守“推土机策略”，抓住窗口期积极配置长久期利率债吃票息！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161391981,"gmtCreate":1623903776443,"gmtModify":1703823126475,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161391981","repostId":"2144843711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161390747,"gmtCreate":1623903670389,"gmtModify":1703823123701,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161390747","repostId":"2144711488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144711488","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623900405,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144711488?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144711488","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"此次调整，并非加息，而是对利率走廊框架的技术性调整。","content":"<p><b>What happened?</b></p><p>In the early hours of June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision, deciding to keep the policy rate near zero and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, but raising the two major management rates.</p><p>Specifically, the Federal Reserve raised the upper limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the excess reserve ratio (IOER)—from 0.10% to 0.15%, and raised the lower limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP)—from zero to 0.05%. The two major interest rate adjustments took effect on June 17 local time.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year. While reiterating that the rise in inflation is mainly due to temporary factors, it signaled that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023. Federal Reserve policymakers expect rate hike to arrive sooner than when they announced their expected interest rate guidelines in March of this year.</p><p><b>What are IOER and ON RRP?</b></p><p>IOER stands for Interest Rate on Excess Reserves. The so-called excess reserves refer to the reserves held by commercial banks and deposit-taking financial institutions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The portion of the actual reserves on the deposit account that exceeds the statutory reserves. The Federal Reserve pays interest on excess reserves, and its interest rate is the excess reserve rate.</p><p>IOER is the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. An IOER greater than zero means that commercial banks can keep their excess daily liquidity at the Federal Reserve for a free lunch. Therefore, unless the Federal Funds rate is higher than the IOER, commercial banks have no incentive to withdraw their excess reserves for interbank lending.</p><p>The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to withdraw liquidity from non-bank institutions, especially money market funds, in order to quickly absorb excess liquidity from outside the banking system in the short term. Money market funds, federal mortgage banks, and other institutions deposit excess reserves in the Federal Reserve's accounts through repurchase transactions and earn interest.</p><p>ON RRP is the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. If Federal Funds rate falls below the reverse repo rate, non-bank institutions will choose to lend money to the Federal Reserve, ultimately leading to a tight market and an increase in Federal Funds rate.</p><p>Federal Funds rate fluctuates between these upper and lower limits.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Haitong Macro's Liang Zhonghua and Li Jun analyzed that<b>This adjustment is not a rate hike, but a technical adjustment to the Interest Rate Corridor framework:</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it is to solve the problem of declining effective Federal Funds rate.</b>For example, it once fell to a historical low of 0.05% on April 30, and has since declined to 0.05% multiple times.<b>On the other hand, it is to address the issues of rising overnight reverse repos and money market interest rates exceeding 0%.</b>For example, since June 9, the daily overnight reverse repurchase volume has exceeded $500 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908bbe41f8fa1c37aac64b112fbdf3\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve launched this round of reverse repos in March of this year and kept them below 100 billion yuan until late April. However, as of June 16, the Federal Reserve's reverse repos exceeded $500 billion for five consecutive trading days, a new high since data became available (Note: The main purpose of the Fed's reverse repos is to withdraw funds, which is the opposite of the reverse repos operated by the People's Bank of China in the open market).</p><p>The sharp surge in reverse repurchase balances reflects the current state of excess dollar liquidity in the US financial market.<b>In other words, overnight reverse repos are a haven for market funds during periods of excess liquidity.</b></p><p>When liquidity is excessive, market funds often choose to buy US Treasury Bond in pursuit of safe assets. When a large amount of funds buy US Treasury bonds, US Treasury yields will continue to decline and may even fall into negative interest rate territory. At this point, overnight reverse repurchase agreements become a safe haven for market funds because the overnight reverse repurchase rate acts as the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Federal Reserve does not want to fall into negative interest rates, the overnight reverse repurchase rate remains at 0% even in a post-pandemic zero-interest-rate environment.</p><p>Prior to this increase, the ON RRP rate was only zero, which still attracted a large amount of capital. This means that funds chasing short-term yields have nowhere to go and can only be deposited into the Federal Reserve without interest.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously pointed out that moderately raising the ON RRP rate can not only withdraw excess residual liquidity, but also correct the reaction of interest rates to the money market and allow deposit-taking institutions to maintain normal operations (positive slight profits).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group ING believes that while raising IOER and ON RRP is a technical move that the Federal Reserve downplays, the impact and marginal direction of the policy remain clear:</p><p>This is certainly not a policy easing; in fact, it coincides with a series of recent similar tightening measures, including the Federal Reserve's decision in March not to renew the expiration of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) relief measures, and the announcement earlier this month of selling off corporate bond instruments that were specially rescued during last year's pandemic. ING points out that raising the ON RRP Rate itself will not reduce the use of reverse repos by financial institutions, but combined with the increase in IOER, it may push up the market-driven Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), thereby reducing the pressure ON the use of reverse repos. SOFR, which uses U.S. Treasury Bond as collateral, is a broad metric used to calculate the cost of overnight lending.</p><p>References:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guoxin Securities</a>\"The Past and Present of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Control\"</p><p>Huachuang Securities, \"Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Handbook – Federal Reserve Chapter\"</p><p>Haitong Macro, \"The Fed Shows Signs of a 'Hawkish' Turn – Commentary on the Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>What happened?</b></p><p>In the early hours of June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision, deciding to keep the policy rate near zero and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, but raising the two major management rates.</p><p>Specifically, the Federal Reserve raised the upper limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the excess reserve ratio (IOER)—from 0.10% to 0.15%, and raised the lower limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP)—from zero to 0.05%. The two major interest rate adjustments took effect on June 17 local time.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year. While reiterating that the rise in inflation is mainly due to temporary factors, it signaled that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023. Federal Reserve policymakers expect rate hike to arrive sooner than when they announced their expected interest rate guidelines in March of this year.</p><p><b>What are IOER and ON RRP?</b></p><p>IOER stands for Interest Rate on Excess Reserves. The so-called excess reserves refer to the reserves held by commercial banks and deposit-taking financial institutions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The portion of the actual reserves on the deposit account that exceeds the statutory reserves. The Federal Reserve pays interest on excess reserves, and its interest rate is the excess reserve rate.</p><p>IOER is the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. An IOER greater than zero means that commercial banks can keep their excess daily liquidity at the Federal Reserve for a free lunch. Therefore, unless the Federal Funds rate is higher than the IOER, commercial banks have no incentive to withdraw their excess reserves for interbank lending.</p><p>The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to withdraw liquidity from non-bank institutions, especially money market funds, in order to quickly absorb excess liquidity from outside the banking system in the short term. Money market funds, federal mortgage banks, and other institutions deposit excess reserves in the Federal Reserve's accounts through repurchase transactions and earn interest.</p><p>ON RRP is the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. If Federal Funds rate falls below the reverse repo rate, non-bank institutions will choose to lend money to the Federal Reserve, ultimately leading to a tight market and an increase in Federal Funds rate.</p><p>Federal Funds rate fluctuates between these upper and lower limits.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Haitong Macro's Liang Zhonghua and Li Jun analyzed that<b>This adjustment is not a rate hike, but a technical adjustment to the Interest Rate Corridor framework:</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it is to solve the problem of declining effective Federal Funds rate.</b>For example, it once fell to a historical low of 0.05% on April 30, and has since declined to 0.05% multiple times.<b>On the other hand, it is to address the issues of rising overnight reverse repos and money market interest rates exceeding 0%.</b>For example, since June 9, the daily overnight reverse repurchase volume has exceeded $500 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908bbe41f8fa1c37aac64b112fbdf3\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve launched this round of reverse repos in March of this year and kept them below 100 billion yuan until late April. However, as of June 16, the Federal Reserve's reverse repos exceeded $500 billion for five consecutive trading days, a new high since data became available (Note: The main purpose of the Fed's reverse repos is to withdraw funds, which is the opposite of the reverse repos operated by the People's Bank of China in the open market).</p><p>The sharp surge in reverse repurchase balances reflects the current state of excess dollar liquidity in the US financial market.<b>In other words, overnight reverse repos are a haven for market funds during periods of excess liquidity.</b></p><p>When liquidity is excessive, market funds often choose to buy US Treasury Bond in pursuit of safe assets. When a large amount of funds buy US Treasury bonds, US Treasury yields will continue to decline and may even fall into negative interest rate territory. At this point, overnight reverse repurchase agreements become a safe haven for market funds because the overnight reverse repurchase rate acts as the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Federal Reserve does not want to fall into negative interest rates, the overnight reverse repurchase rate remains at 0% even in a post-pandemic zero-interest-rate environment.</p><p>Prior to this increase, the ON RRP rate was only zero, which still attracted a large amount of capital. This means that funds chasing short-term yields have nowhere to go and can only be deposited into the Federal Reserve without interest.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously pointed out that moderately raising the ON RRP rate can not only withdraw excess residual liquidity, but also correct the reaction of interest rates to the money market and allow deposit-taking institutions to maintain normal operations (positive slight profits).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group ING believes that while raising IOER and ON RRP is a technical move that the Federal Reserve downplays, the impact and marginal direction of the policy remain clear:</p><p>This is certainly not a policy easing; in fact, it coincides with a series of recent similar tightening measures, including the Federal Reserve's decision in March not to renew the expiration of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) relief measures, and the announcement earlier this month of selling off corporate bond instruments that were specially rescued during last year's pandemic. ING points out that raising the ON RRP Rate itself will not reduce the use of reverse repos by financial institutions, but combined with the increase in IOER, it may push up the market-driven Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), thereby reducing the pressure ON the use of reverse repos. SOFR, which uses U.S. Treasury Bond as collateral, is a broad metric used to calculate the cost of overnight lending.</p><p>References:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guoxin Securities</a>\"The Past and Present of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Control\"</p><p>Huachuang Securities, \"Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Handbook – Federal Reserve Chapter\"</p><p>Haitong Macro, \"The Fed Shows Signs of a 'Hawkish' Turn – Commentary on the Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633128\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633128","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144711488","content_text":"发生了什么？\n北京时间6月17日凌晨，美联储发布利率决议，仍决定保持近零的政策利率和QE购债规模不变，但上调了两大管理利率。\n具体来看，美联储将联邦基金利率区间的上限——超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.10%上调至0.15%，将联邦基金利率区间的下限——隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）从零上调至0.05%。两大利率调整自当地时间6月17日开始生效。\n此外，美联储明显上调了今年的通胀预期，虽然重申通胀上升主要来自暂时的因素，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。相比今年3月公布预期利率路线时，联储决策者预计加息会更快到来。\n什么是IOER和ON RRP？\nIOER全称 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves，即超额准备金利率。所谓超额准备金是指商业银行及存款性金融机构在中央银行存款帐户上的实际准备金超过法定准备金的部分。美联储对超额准备金支付利息，其利率就是超额准备金利率。\nIOER是美联储利率的上限。大于零的IOER意味着商业银行日常多余的流动性可以放在美联储享受免费的午餐，因此除非联邦基金利率高于IOER，否则商业银行没有动力力将自己的超额准备金调出用于拆借。\n隔夜逆回购协议便利（ON RRP）则是美联储从非银机构，特别是货币市场基金回笼流动性的工具，目的是为了短期内迅速吸收那些来自于银行体系之外的超额流动性。货币市场基金、联邦住房贷款银行等机构通过回购交易，将过剩储备金存在美联储账户上并获得利息。\nON RRP是美联储利率的下限，如果联邦基金利率低于逆回购利率，那么非银机构就会选择将钱借给美联储，最终使得市场资金紧张，联邦基金利率上升。\n联邦基金利率便在这上下限之间波动。\n意味着什么？\n海通宏观梁中华、李俊分析指出，此次调整，并非加息，而是对利率走廊框架的技术性调整：\n\n一方面是为了解决有效联邦基金利率不断下滑的问题，例如4月30日一度下行至0.05%的历史低点，此后也多次下滑至0.05%；\n 另一方面是为了解决隔夜逆回购用量不断上升、货币市场利率突破0%的问题，例如自6月9日起，每天隔夜逆回购用量均超过5000亿美元。\n \n\n本轮美联储开启逆回购是在今年3月，到4月下旬之前始终保持1000亿元以内。但截至6月16日，美联储连续5个交易日逆回购超5000亿美元，创有数据以来新高（注：美联储逆回购主要作用是回笼资金，方向与中国央行公开市场操作的逆回购相反）。\n逆回购余额的大幅飙升反映的是美国金融市场美元流动性过剩的现状，换句话说，隔夜逆回购是流动性过剩时期的市场资金庇护所。\n当流动性过剩时，为追求安全资产，市场资金往往会选择购买美国国债，当大量资金购买美债时，美债收益率会不断下行，甚至可能跌入负利率区间。此时，隔夜逆回购协议就成为市场资金的安全庇护所，因为隔夜逆回购利率充当着美联储利率走廊下限的作用，由于美联储并不希望落入负利率，因此即便在疫情后0利率的环境下，隔夜逆回购利率水平也在0%。\n在此次上调之前，ON RRP利率只有零，仍然吸引了大批资金。这代表追逐短期收益率的资金根本无处可去，只能无息放入美联储。\n华尔街见闻此前分析指出，适度上调ON RRP利率既能回笼过多的剩余流动性，也能纠正当利率对货币市场的反应，并容许存款机构维持正常化经营（正向微利）。\n荷兰国际集团ING认为，虽然上调IOER和ON RRP是一个技术性的举动，美联储对此轻描淡写，但政策的影响和边际方向仍然是明确的：\n\n 这肯定不是一种政策上的放松，实际上与最近一系列类似紧缩的举措相吻合，包括今年3月美联储决定补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施到期不续，以及本月初宣布的抛售去年疫情期间特别入市救助的公司债工具。\n\nING指出，上调ON RRP利率本身并不会减少金融机构对逆回购的使用，但结合IOER的抬升，可能会推高由市场驱动的担保隔夜融资利率SOFR（Secured Overnight Financing Rate），从而减少对逆回购的使用压力。SOFR以美国国债作为抵押品，是一个用来计算隔夜借贷成本的广泛指标。\n参考资料：\n国信证券，《美联储利率调控的“前世今生”》\n华创证券，《全球央行货币政策手册——美联储篇》\n海通宏观，《美联储显“转鹰”信号——美联储6月议息会议点评》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161307707,"gmtCreate":1623903632309,"gmtModify":1703823122226,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161307707","repostId":"2144719786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144719786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623901955,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144719786?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144719786","media":"格隆汇","summary":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储20","content":"<p><h2>The highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has finally come to a close.</h2>This meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and to maintain monthly bond purchases at $120 billion, which was in line with market expectations, but also sent a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts that the Federal Reserve will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there was no rate hike and no reduction in bond purchases, the strengthening of expectations for rate hike in the future still triggered a major shock in global markets.</p><p>Following the news, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% at one point. The decline only narrowed after Powell reassured the market at a press conference, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US dollar spot exchange rate index rose 0.6%, briefly breaking through 0.7% during the session, its biggest gain since January 27, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 91 mark.</p><p>Gold futures prices fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce in August, while spot prices plummeted by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. U.S. COMEX gold futures and WTI futures prices also declined.</p><p>Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply today, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 1%, while the South Korean, Singaporean, and Australian S&P 500 indices experienced significant open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the initial decline in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets yesterday in anticipation of the liquidity tightening risk caused by the Federal Reserve's decision, the ChiNext index plummeted by more than 4%, releasing a sense of panic. Today, the A-share market saw a slight open low before rebounding. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged and rebounded 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what are the views of various institutional leaders on this interest rate meeting, which is considered the most important of the year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said, \"A more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases, may be detrimental to dollar short sellers in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Federal Reserve policymakers expect increased rate hike to push up real interest rates and strengthen the dollar's upward momentum, at least in the short term, with the dot plot showing a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term outcome of adjusting management interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dove\" nor does it \"stick to its temporary inflation theory.\" The support the Fed provided for the euro to rise against the dollar is no longer there, ending his trading recommendation to go long on the euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy: \"Large-cap U.S. stocks will be fine, but this shift by the Fed is detrimental to speculative technology stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood of the market rising out of control.\"</p><p><b>5. Anben Standard Investment</b></p><p>Deputy Chief Economist James McCann: “This exceeded market expectations. This shift in stance is inconsistent with the Federal Reserve’s recent statement that rising inflation is temporary. If price volatility is temporary, there is no clear reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially given the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In the eyes of some, this certainly sends a signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is deepening its concerns about inflation.”</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Chief U.S. Economist Paul Ashworth: \"The Fed's insistence that the surge in inflation 'roughly' reflects a 'temporary factor,' but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and the median forecast now indicates two 25-basis-point rate hike in 2023. We previously assumed the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market—hence only one 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.\" But we clearly misjudged the Federal Reserve's ever-changing response mechanisms and its tolerance for inflation.</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Federal Reserve acknowledged that the effects of supply bottlenecks are likely to be greater than expected, and that inflation expectations may also be higher and longer-lasting than the Fed expects. It also stated that it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from concerns to reality, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as it previously appeared.</p><p><b>8. CICC</b></p><p>This meeting did not significantly change the pace of the Federal Reserve's exit. The appropriate time is still likely to be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the US Treasury and dollar markets react so strongly? This is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, as well as a partial \"correction\" of previous pricing issues. The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation remains temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no mention of cutting QE in anticipation of a strong economic recovery? The Federal Reserve also needs to help the Treasury reduce the cost of issuing Treasury Bond; Taper signals need to wait for Q3; the real risks may arise in the second half of the year. We expect QE to be reduced in Q3. The Biden administration may intend to release risks to US stocks within the year.</p><p><b>The views of these experts are largely convergent, confirming the Fed's hawkish signals and expressing the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectations will have on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of global capital market liquidity, although Powell still has ample motivation to protect the US capital market, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner against the backdrop of persistently high inflation. Powell does not have much choice but to keep dragging his feet, hoping that the economy, prices, and employment can provide more support so that he does not stay in a corner for too long and can calmly put down the rate hike knife.</b></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2>The highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has finally come to a close.</h2>This meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and to maintain monthly bond purchases at $120 billion, which was in line with market expectations, but also sent a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts that the Federal Reserve will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there was no rate hike and no reduction in bond purchases, the strengthening of expectations for rate hike in the future still triggered a major shock in global markets.</p><p>Following the news, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% at one point. The decline only narrowed after Powell reassured the market at a press conference, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US dollar spot exchange rate index rose 0.6%, briefly breaking through 0.7% during the session, its biggest gain since January 27, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 91 mark.</p><p>Gold futures prices fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce in August, while spot prices plummeted by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. U.S. COMEX gold futures and WTI futures prices also declined.</p><p>Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply today, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 1%, while the South Korean, Singaporean, and Australian S&P 500 indices experienced significant open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the initial decline in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets yesterday in anticipation of the liquidity tightening risk caused by the Federal Reserve's decision, the ChiNext index plummeted by more than 4%, releasing a sense of panic. Today, the A-share market saw a slight open low before rebounding. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged and rebounded 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what are the views of various institutional leaders on this interest rate meeting, which is considered the most important of the year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said, \"A more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases, may be detrimental to dollar short sellers in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Federal Reserve policymakers expect increased rate hike to push up real interest rates and strengthen the dollar's upward momentum, at least in the short term, with the dot plot showing a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term outcome of adjusting management interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dove\" nor does it \"stick to its temporary inflation theory.\" The support the Fed provided for the euro to rise against the dollar is no longer there, ending his trading recommendation to go long on the euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy: \"Large-cap U.S. stocks will be fine, but this shift by the Fed is detrimental to speculative technology stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood of the market rising out of control.\"</p><p><b>5. Anben Standard Investment</b></p><p>Deputy Chief Economist James McCann: “This exceeded market expectations. This shift in stance is inconsistent with the Federal Reserve’s recent statement that rising inflation is temporary. If price volatility is temporary, there is no clear reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially given the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In the eyes of some, this certainly sends a signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is deepening its concerns about inflation.”</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Chief U.S. Economist Paul Ashworth: \"The Fed's insistence that the surge in inflation 'roughly' reflects a 'temporary factor,' but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and the median forecast now indicates two 25-basis-point rate hike in 2023. We previously assumed the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market—hence only one 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.\" But we clearly misjudged the Federal Reserve's ever-changing response mechanisms and its tolerance for inflation.</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Federal Reserve acknowledged that the effects of supply bottlenecks are likely to be greater than expected, and that inflation expectations may also be higher and longer-lasting than the Fed expects. It also stated that it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from concerns to reality, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as it previously appeared.</p><p><b>8. CICC</b></p><p>This meeting did not significantly change the pace of the Federal Reserve's exit. The appropriate time is still likely to be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the US Treasury and dollar markets react so strongly? This is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, as well as a partial \"correction\" of previous pricing issues. The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation remains temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no mention of cutting QE in anticipation of a strong economic recovery? The Federal Reserve also needs to help the Treasury reduce the cost of issuing Treasury Bond; Taper signals need to wait for Q3; the real risks may arise in the second half of the year. We expect QE to be reduced in Q3. The Biden administration may intend to release risks to US stocks within the year.</p><p><b>The views of these experts are largely convergent, confirming the Fed's hawkish signals and expressing the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectations will have on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of global capital market liquidity, although Powell still has ample motivation to protect the US capital market, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner against the backdrop of persistently high inflation. Powell does not have much choice but to keep dragging his feet, hoping that the economy, prices, and employment can provide more support so that he does not stay in a corner for too long and can calmly put down the rate hike knife.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144719786","content_text":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储2023年底前将至少加息两次。\n\n虽然没有加息，也没有缩减购债规模，但未来要加息的预期加强还是引发全球市场巨震。\n消息一出，美股三大股指一度均跌逾1%，鲍威尔在新闻发布会再度安抚市场后跌幅才收窄，美国10年期国债收益率则冲破1.5%。\n\n美元即期汇率指数上涨0.6%，盘中一度破0.7%，为1月27日以来最大涨幅，美元指数则直线升破91关口。\n8月份黄金期货价格大幅下跌1.2%，至每盎司1834.20美元，现货价格则暴跌1.6%，至每盎司1829.26美元，美国COMEX黄金期货价格、WTI期货价格也都出现下跌。\n今日亚太市场开盘，日经225指数开盘急剧下跌1%，韩国、新加坡、澳洲标普指数等明显低开。\n\n但由于昨日A股港股市场先跌提前预期美联储决议的收流动性风险，创业板暴跌了超4%，释放了恐慌气氛。今日A股市场反而小幅低开后高走反弹，截至发文，沪指涨0.37%，深成指上涨1.2%，创业板大涨反弹2%。\n\n那么，对于这次被称为本年度最重要的议息会议，各家机构大佬又如何看待？\n1、高盛\n分析师Zach Pandl表示：“美联储观点更加强硬，以及市场上越来越多有关购债缩减的争论，短期内可能不利于美元空头。”\n2、纽约梅隆银行\n策略师John Velis表示，美联储决策者预期加息次数增多可能会推升实际利率，增强美元涨势的动力，至少在短期内会如此，点阵图显示的加息路径更加鹰派，以及调整管理利率的一个可预见的短期结果。\n3、德意志银行\n外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos：美联储不再是“持久鸽派”，也不“坚持它的临时性通胀说”，美联储为欧元兑美元上行提供的支撑已不复存在，结束做多欧元兑美元的交易建议。\n4、Evercore ISI投资\n组合策略主管Dennis DeBusschere：“美股大盘股不会有事，但美联储的这种转变不利于投机性科技股。鉴于最近这些股票上涨，这件事很有趣，这也降低了市场涨到失控的可能性。\n5、安本标准投资\n副首席经济学家James McCann：“这超出了市场预期。这个立场转变跟美联储最近说通胀上升是暂时的并不一致。如果价格波动是暂时的，没有明显理由需要比计划更早加息，尤其是在最近劳动力市场表现让人失望的情况下。在一些人看来，这当然会释放出联邦公开市场委员会对通胀的担忧加深的信号。”\n6、凯投宏观\n首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth：“美联储坚持通胀蹿升‘大致’反映了‘暂时性因素’的说法，但官员们大幅上调了今年通胀率预测，而且现在预测中值显示2023年将有两次各25基点的加息。我们之前假设美联储会更愿意让通胀上升，以确保劳动力市场‘广泛而包容性’复苏——因此预期只有一次25个基点的加息。但我们显然误判了美联储不断变化的反应机制和对通胀的容忍。”\n7、华泰证券\n美联储承认了供给瓶颈的效应比预期更大的可能性，通胀预期也可能比美联储的预期更高且更持久，并表示如果有迹象表明通胀预期正在实质性并且持续地超出预期，将会调整货币政策立场。这意味着持续的通胀预期也可能逐渐由担忧转向现实，美联储对通胀的容忍度可能没之前表现地那么坚定。\n8、中金\n此次会议并没有大幅改变了美联储的退出节奏。合适时间依然可能是在年底或者四季度。那么美债和美元市场为何反应如此剧烈？主要是市场对于美联储利率散点图暗示加息节奏可能提前的反应，以及对于前期定价问题的部分「纠正」。美联储对于通胀的判断依然是暂时性且逐步消退。\n9、广发证券\n预期经济强劲回升为何只字不提削减QE？美联储还需帮助财政部压低国债发行成本；Taper信号需待Q3，真正的风险或在下半年，我们预计：Q3削减QE；拜登政府或有意在年内释放美股风险。\n从这些大佬的观点上，大致趋同，都确认了美联储鹰派信号，也表达了美联储的加息预期将给资本市场造成的利空。\n作为全球资本市场流动性之锚，尽管鲍威尔呵护美国资本市场的动机还充足，但在通胀持续高企的现实背景下，美联储其实已经被逼入墙角，鲍威尔也没有太多的选择余地，能够做的只是不断往后拖，希望经济、物价、就业能够多给点力，让他不至于在墙角呆太久，能够从容地放下加息这把刀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160528305,"gmtCreate":1623802473207,"gmtModify":1703819737301,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160528305","repostId":"1134804844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134804844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134804844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134804844","media":"第一财经","summary":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的","content":"<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that a more balanced allocation is necessary during this period. Why did US inflation data hit a 13-year high but still not shake investor sentiment? Why did US Treasury yields fall instead of rising? How should one invest as a tightening cycle approaches? These are all huge questions that have been lingering in the minds of investors recently. Morgan Stanley recently stated that economic growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of this year experienced exceptionally strong demand, which may indicate that the rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The US market seems to agree with this, causing bond yields to peak and then fall...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that a more balanced allocation is necessary during this period. Why did US inflation data hit a 13-year high but still not shake investor sentiment? Why did US Treasury yields fall instead of rising? How should one invest as a tightening cycle approaches? These are all huge questions that have been lingering in the minds of investors recently. Morgan Stanley recently stated that economic growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of this year experienced exceptionally strong demand, which may indicate that the rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The US market seems to agree with this, causing bond yields to peak and then fall...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134804844","content_text":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的巨大疑问。\n摩根士丹利最新表示，明年经济增长和通胀预计仍将相当强劲。然而，今年第一季度经历了异常旺盛的需求，可能标志着增长和通胀的上升速率已达峰值。美国市场似乎也认同这一点，债券收益率因此触顶回落，一些周期性较强的股票也出现盘整。在一季度盈利大幅上修后，大摩现在认为未来继续上修的空间有限，毕竟一季度发生的一些事情未来不太会重复——经济重启叠加巨大的财政刺激带动了消费，加密市场泡沫也强化了财富效应。\n市场预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题。随着紧缩周期不断临近，投资策略也不同于早周期，盈利增速将成主要驱动力。年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n通胀预期可能触顶\n数据显示，美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%，超过预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；剔除不稳定的食品与能源价格的核心CPI年率达3.8%，同样超过市场预期的3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n\n美国整体通胀率。来源：Wind，美国劳工部\n然而，在6月10日上述数据发布后，10年期美债收益率不涨反跌，收盘仅报1.454%。美股也照涨不误，标普500指数上周五收于4247.44点，距离突破历史新高的4249.74点仅一步之遥。\n大摩认为，这背后的原因可能在于，通胀预期或已经近乎见顶。\n摩根士丹利首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael J Wilson）对记者表示，通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场此前已变得非常拥挤，特别是在零售市场，因此无论通胀数据结果如何，回调的时机已经成熟；盈亏平衡通胀率已经反映了市场对通胀的乐观预期，达到10年高点；此外，企业和消费者调查都表明，他们对通胀的预期发生了变化，认为通胀是更持续性的而非间歇性的，这一点很重要，因为预期可以导致行为变化。\n“尽管所有这些指标都大幅走高，但它们似乎也已见顶，10年期国债名义收益率和盈亏平衡收益率已触顶回落。这可能是一个早期信号，表明后续经济增长和通胀都可能不及目前过高的预期。”威尔逊称。\n影响这一预期的关键仍和需求水平有关。一季度高达1.9万亿美元的财政刺激拉动了消费，叠加加密货币扩张又带来了近1万亿美元的财富效应。但机构认为，这两种情况都不太可能在二、三季度重演，这也会逐步体现在经济增速和通胀数据上。\n从名义利率拆解来看，2月中旬之前，美债收益率快速攀升主要受通胀预期回升驱动。疫情后美国经济加速复苏，叠加拜登政府推岀的一轮轮大规模财政刺激，通胀预期不断升温，彼时实际利率受疫情反复等因素的影响持续磨底。\n在突破1.3%后，通胀预期趋于缓和，实际利率替代通胀预期成为推动美债收益率快速上行的核心因素，这也意味着彼时市场的关注点更多落在经济数据的改善上。近期美债收益率的下行，更多则源于通胀预期和实际利率的同步走弱。隐含通胀预期从5月峰值下降近19BP，与CPI连续两个月的大幅上涨形成了鲜明对比。显然，美联储官员以及美国财长耶伦关于“通胀上升是暂时的”的说法终于让市场开始买账了，投资者开始相信，供给短缺造成的涨价将会缓解，且服务性需求的攀升也不可能一直持续下去。\n\n另一些因素可能也在推动收益率下行。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper对记者表示，债市正在对某些国家的新冠肺炎疫情未能受控的担忧做出反应，尤其是在更令人担忧的Delta变异病毒株迅速传播的情况下，这可能会抑制经济增长。Delta变异病毒株占英国新病例的90%，并且很可能成为美国的主要毒株；此外，美国以外的投资者仍被美国国债所吸引，特别是考虑到欧元区的利率非常低。上周的一个催化剂是美元走软，这刺激了外国购买美国政府债券。\n紧缩周期前夕应均衡配置\n不过，通胀预期触顶并不代表通胀会很快下行，更不代表全球央行尤其是美联储永远不“收水”。\nKristina Hooper预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题，可能会在夏末的杰克逊·霍尔会议（Jackson Hole）上宣布缩表时间点，并于秋季开始实行。但市场可能还没有准备好接受这个消息，预计美债收益率可能在下半年上升。\n历史数据也显示，即使在经济增长动能见顶放缓、流动性边际收紧的时期，股市表现仍可能保持良好，盈利增长是驱动股价攀升的关键。当然回报往往会弱于经济强劲增长的时期。在行业配置上，比起在上一个阶段侧重于顺周期板块的配置，在当前的中周期，行业配置就需要在长期可持续成长和顺周期板块中求取平衡。\n年初以来，从成长到价值的板块轮动加速。但事实上，5月以来，早周期板块相较于标普500的表现已明显触顶回落，这也和美债收益率触顶回落的时间点吻合。\n\n大摩认为，在成长（growth）和价值/周期性行业（value）之间，后疫情时代的每股收益驱动因素将更加均衡，消费者服务、运输、能源和资本物品等板块预计将成为价值/周期板块的重要增长驱动力，这和过去两年有较大不同，当时每股收益增长主要集中在科技和通信服务。\n未来，更高的利润率预期主要是由科技、互联网和制药行业推动的。就不同板块对整体营业利润的贡献来看，科技公司仍占主导。具体而言，传媒和娱乐行业(以谷歌和脸书主导）的利润增长几乎占预期利润增长的四分之一，软件/服务占17%，零售服务占16%（其中亚马逊一家公司就贡献了近三分之二），半导体占12%，科技硬件占10%，制药占11%。\n之所以这一时期要均衡配置，也是因为从绝对角度看，大摩认为预期利润率涨幅最大的是科技股和一些周期性行业，部分周期性行业在经历了上半年的大涨后，后续行情仍有望延续，包括汽车、耐用消费品/服装、多元金融(资管公司、投行、经纪公司)、能源和材料等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160521292,"gmtCreate":1623802449316,"gmtModify":1703819736489,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160521292","repostId":"2143750481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160563519,"gmtCreate":1623802223731,"gmtModify":1703819721925,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160563519","repostId":"1199368394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":160563519,"gmtCreate":1623802223731,"gmtModify":1703819721925,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160563519","repostId":"1199368394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161391633,"gmtCreate":1623903813122,"gmtModify":1703823127121,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161391633","repostId":"1118656593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118656593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623898804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118656593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:00","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118656593","media":"格隆汇","summary":"沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀。","content":"<p>Authors: Deng Haiqing, Wang Shuqin</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected, causing a triple whammy in the US stock, bond, and commodity markets, which were immersed in a \"buffalo\" of overflowing liquidity. the US Dollar Index strengthened while commodities weakened, with inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, falling by nearly 10 basis points, leaving the stories of a \"super cycle\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities in a silence.</p><p><b>I. Inflation exaggeration and speculation are beginning to subside, the market is reacting lukewarmly to high inflation data, and long-term inflation expectations are cooling.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, due to the widespread availability of vaccines and the introduction of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies in developed countries, speculation about \"super cycles\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities has been rampant. Every now and then, the story of \"global inflation is coming\" has caused disturbances in financial markets. The recovery in Europe and the United States, Biden's massive fiscal stimulus, the pandemic and natural disasters in producing countries, and domestic carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have all become reasons for exaggerated speculation on commodities and inflation.</p><p><b>However, judging from recent market sentiment and commodity price trends, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation is beginning to subside, and commodity prices have peaked and fallen. As the base rises, the year-on-year increase has declined significantly, and market views on inflation and central bank monetary policy are gradually changing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc567b396e432095391330753ae952d4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 9, China released its May inflation data. In May, China's PPI continued to rise year-on-year due to factors such as the base and commodity prices, with the PPI rising 9.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008. Judging from the market performance that day, bond yields rose first and then fell, and most market opinions believe that the peak of this year's PPI has been reached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c52071fadad8a28d86ec51444d55a\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 11, the United States released its May inflation data. In May, the US CPI rose 5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since 1992. Judging from the market performance that day, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by nearly 12 basis points, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, have been on a downward trend since mid-May.</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected. The US stock market, bond market, and commodity market, which were immersed in a liquidity-ridden \"buffalo,\" suffered a triple whammy. the US Dollar Index strengthened, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, fell by nearly 10 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a123ebba821ce282f123fc1f1cf68ed\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, commodity price manipulation is an important means of launching a \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 on June 8 local time, its predecessor being the Endless Frontiers Act introduced last May. Although the bill is called \"industrial policy,\" it is more like a \"declaration of war\" against China. Under the guise of innovative themes such as semiconductors, 5G, and space exploration, the content of \"containing China\" is permeated between the lines. The industrial chain between China and the United States, especially in the high-tech field, is booming. As we have pointed out in articles such as \"Seeing the Risks, Part Three: Beware of the Potential 'Supply-Side Attack' on Chinese Manufacturing!\"<b>We must pay close attention to the United States' \"supply-side attack\" on China's supply chain and industrial chain, and the manipulation of commodity prices is an important means of carrying out this \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China implemented effective epidemic prevention and control measures, took the lead in restoring social and economic order, protected manufacturing capacity, and smoothly met overseas demand, laying the foundation for high export growth and becoming an important source of China's economic resilience. Compared to the out-of-control pandemic and social lockdowns in countries like Southeast Asia and India,<b>The stability of China's supply chain has withstood the extreme stress test of the pandemic, attracting international capital to invest and build factories in China.</b></p><p><b>However, the sharp rise in commodity prices this year has led to operational difficulties for some midstream and downstream enterprises.</b>Despite the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the lack of significant expansion in demand has made it difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted downstream, squeezing corporate profits. In May, China's industrial producer purchase price index (PPI) rose 12.5% year-on-year, while the industrial producer price index (EPI) rose 9.0% year-on-year, a mismatch. Among industrial producer prices, prices in the mining industry rose by 36.4%, prices in the raw materials industry by 18.8%, and prices in the processing industry by 7.4%. The price of consumer goods rose by 0.5%.</p><p><b>Faced with rising commodity prices, some companies that were not devastated by the pandemic have been forced to suspend production and operations, which has challenged the stability of China's supply chain and may prompt some overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, by hyping up the commodity super cycle and creating pressures such as high inflation and a wave of overseas rate hike to induce rate hike by the People's Bank of China, it can increase the financing costs of China's real economy, drive up the appreciation of the RMB, lead to difficulties in the operation of China's real economy, and may also cause the bursting of China's asset price bubble and a debt default crisis, making it easier for international speculative capital to \"harvest China\".</b></p><p><b>Hyping up the commodity supercycle could also induce China to allow the yuan to appreciate to combat rising import costs and hit Chinese exports.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2d6b44ac64759f08838e873e9716388\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Faced with this situation, financial regulatory authorities such as the Financial Stability and Development Commission, the People's Bank of China, and the China Banking and Research Commission should severely crack down on commodity speculation, strictly supervise and curb the flow of funds from speculative capital and financial institutions, enforce the trading order of the derivatives market, reduce the \"overheating\" of commodity prices, and allow commodity prices to return to economic fundamentals.</b></p><p><b>In addition, potential attacks by international capital on China's supply side include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Stigmatizing China under the pretext of human rights and inducing overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain (such as the Xinjiang cotton incident).</b></p><p><b>(2) Relying on technological hegemony to attack China's high-end manufacturing industry, represented by the chip industry, and hinder China's technological progress and industrial upgrading.</b></p><p><b>(3) With the huge attraction of the stock market, the United States excludes companies that are unwilling to join its industrial chain system or that pose a threat to its industrial chain system, while attracting high-quality companies to list in the United States and join the global supply chain system dominated by American companies.</b></p><p><b>(4) Speculating on the RMB exchange rate, inducing or forcing the RMB to appreciate unilaterally, and attacking Chinese export-oriented enterprises.</b>Since the pandemic, China's domestic demand has recovered slowly, while external demand is an important reason supporting the high prosperity of China's manufacturing industry. If exports are affected, the process of China's economic return to normal will inevitably be disrupted.</p><p><b>Third, there is no basis for overall high inflation in China, and inflation is not the main contradiction that the People's Bank of China is currently focusing on in its monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>From the current perspective, China has not been \"fooled\".</b>The People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out in column four that rising global commodity prices may temporarily push up my country's PPI, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. At the recent Lujiazui Forum, Governor Yi stated that my country's PPI growth rate has been relatively high this year, which is partly related to the low base formed by the negative PPI last year. Therefore, we can observe PPI changes from the overall perspective of last year, this year, and next year for three consecutive years. Based on various factors, my country's CPI trend this year is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, with the average CPI increase for the whole year expected to be below 2%.</p><p><b>In a series of articles since March, \"The Da Vinci Code of the Bond Market 'Bulldozer Strategy'—An Exploration of the Breakthrough and Reconstruction of the Modern Central Banking System,\" we have maintained that rising commodity prices are unsustainable and that there is no basis for widespread high inflation in China. The main reasons include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Rising crude oil prices are unlikely to bring imported inflation to China.</b>The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2005 to 2008 was \"China's rapid development + a weak US dollar\"; The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2008 to 2011 was \"demand expansion brought about by China's 'four trillion yuan' plus a weak US dollar\". This round of crude oil price increases is different from the previous two rounds. China's demand has not expanded on a large scale, and the US dollar is not expected to depreciate in the long term. The supply of new energy and shale oil to replace traditional oil has set a ceiling for crude oil price increases, and the rise in oil prices is likely to reach a peak.</p><p><b>(2) CPI lacks upward momentum.</b>The growth rate of residents' income is still in the process of recovery, which has suppressed the release of consumption potential, and there is insufficient momentum in the core CPI. With hog production continuing to recover and pork prices continuing to decline, coupled with the high base effect, the CPI is likely to remain low in the future. PPI has a weak transmission effect on CPI. Historically, since 2015, the trends of China's CPI and PPI have been divergent or even opposite, making it difficult for rising PPI growth to have a transmission effect on CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498b348e62856293d98771abfa38fe74\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) China’s aggregate demand has not expanded significantly, and there are no conditions for overheated demand to lead to high inflation. It is unlikely that China will experience overheated demand inflation again. Economic data from May shows that China's industrial production has reached its peak, and domestic demand is still recovering but has not yet reached the normal level before the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad5be4f1624ce4e0ee853daf4fca6a7\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation is not currently a key risk factor for regulators. Judging from Chairman Guo's speech at the Lujiazui Forum, the main risks and possible countermeasures that regulators are currently focusing on in the financial sector are:</b></p><p>(1) The rebound in the scale of non-performing loans and the housing bubble. The solution is to accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets and use structured monetary policy tools to curb the rapid rise in housing prices in some areas.</p><p>(2) Shadow banking has made a comeback. The solution is to earnestly implement the new asset management regulations.</p><p>(3) Illegal and irregular activities in the financial sector, such as illegal public offering of securities and Ponzi schemes. Responding to the market involves strengthening administrative supervision, legal penalties, and investor education.</p><p>(4) Risks of investing in financial derivatives. The solutions remain investor education and a crackdown on market speculation. Chairman Guo particularly emphasized that those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold, and other commodity futures have little chance of getting rich.</p><p><b>Fourth, the \"super cycle\" is ultimately a short-term frenzy, and the bond market's \"bulldozer\" has not stopped.</b></p><p><b>Recently, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation in the market has begun to subside. The stories of \"super cycles\" in commodities told by major international investment banks are no longer appealing. Inflation is not the main contradiction that central banks focus on in monetary policy, and high inflation is unlikely to be enough to drive bond market yields upwards.</b></p><p><b>The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen from the 1.7% range, and the interest rate differential between China and the US has widened again. It is unlikely that US Treasury yields will be able to drive the upward trend of Chinese bond market yields.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5e2f9286c2ab267583e76cdd32b7c4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This year's government work report calls for further reductions in actual loan interest rates and continued guidance for the financial system to offer benefits to the real economy. This year, it is essential to make financing more convenient for micro and small enterprises and to ensure that overall financing costs remain stable with a slight decline.</p><p>Following the reform of the LPR system, the transmission chain of OMO interest rate, MLF interest rate, LPR interest rate, and loan interest rate has become clearer. According to the first quarter monetary policy implementation report: \"The LPR is formed based on the policy interest rate quote, and the central bank... has improved the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism from the policy interest rate to the LPR interest rate and then to the actual loan interest rate.\" Driving down the actual loan interest rate requires maintaining the stability of the policy interest rate.</p><p><b>This year, we proposed the \"bulldozer strategy,\" believing that there is a trend bull market in the bond market. The two core judgments are: First, the central bank's policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged this year; Second, the tone of \"reasonably ample\" liquidity is likely to remain unchanged this year. Based on this assessment, judging from the current spread between long-term interest rate bond yields, policy interest rates, and market interest rates, there is still room for decline in bond market yields. The intermediate fluctuations are just \"small bumps\" that bring about bull market turbulence and are unlikely to change the overall trend of a bull market.</b></p><p><b>Since June, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield has returned above 3.10%. We recommend that bond market investors continue to adhere to the \"bulldozer strategy\" and seize the window of opportunity to actively allocate to long-term interest rate bonds to earn coupon income!</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"super cycle\" is a short-term frenzy; those betting on inflation trading should wake up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Authors: Deng Haiqing, Wang Shuqin</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected, causing a triple whammy in the US stock, bond, and commodity markets, which were immersed in a \"buffalo\" of overflowing liquidity. the US Dollar Index strengthened while commodities weakened, with inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, falling by nearly 10 basis points, leaving the stories of a \"super cycle\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities in a silence.</p><p><b>I. Inflation exaggeration and speculation are beginning to subside, the market is reacting lukewarmly to high inflation data, and long-term inflation expectations are cooling.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, due to the widespread availability of vaccines and the introduction of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies in developed countries, speculation about \"super cycles\" and \"reinflation trading\" in commodities has been rampant. Every now and then, the story of \"global inflation is coming\" has caused disturbances in financial markets. The recovery in Europe and the United States, Biden's massive fiscal stimulus, the pandemic and natural disasters in producing countries, and domestic carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have all become reasons for exaggerated speculation on commodities and inflation.</p><p><b>However, judging from recent market sentiment and commodity price trends, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation is beginning to subside, and commodity prices have peaked and fallen. As the base rises, the year-on-year increase has declined significantly, and market views on inflation and central bank monetary policy are gradually changing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc567b396e432095391330753ae952d4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 9, China released its May inflation data. In May, China's PPI continued to rise year-on-year due to factors such as the base and commodity prices, with the PPI rising 9.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008. Judging from the market performance that day, bond yields rose first and then fell, and most market opinions believe that the peak of this year's PPI has been reached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c52071fadad8a28d86ec51444d55a\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On June 11, the United States released its May inflation data. In May, the US CPI rose 5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reaching a new high since September 2008, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since 1992. Judging from the market performance that day, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by nearly 12 basis points, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, have been on a downward trend since mid-May.</p><p>On June 17, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting was more hawkish than expected. The US stock market, bond market, and commodity market, which were immersed in a liquidity-ridden \"buffalo,\" suffered a triple whammy. the US Dollar Index strengthened, and inflation expectations, measured by the Treasury Bond inflation index, fell by nearly 10 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a123ebba821ce282f123fc1f1cf68ed\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, commodity price manipulation is an important means of launching a \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 on June 8 local time, its predecessor being the Endless Frontiers Act introduced last May. Although the bill is called \"industrial policy,\" it is more like a \"declaration of war\" against China. Under the guise of innovative themes such as semiconductors, 5G, and space exploration, the content of \"containing China\" is permeated between the lines. The industrial chain between China and the United States, especially in the high-tech field, is booming. As we have pointed out in articles such as \"Seeing the Risks, Part Three: Beware of the Potential 'Supply-Side Attack' on Chinese Manufacturing!\"<b>We must pay close attention to the United States' \"supply-side attack\" on China's supply chain and industrial chain, and the manipulation of commodity prices is an important means of carrying out this \"supply-side attack\" on China.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China implemented effective epidemic prevention and control measures, took the lead in restoring social and economic order, protected manufacturing capacity, and smoothly met overseas demand, laying the foundation for high export growth and becoming an important source of China's economic resilience. Compared to the out-of-control pandemic and social lockdowns in countries like Southeast Asia and India,<b>The stability of China's supply chain has withstood the extreme stress test of the pandemic, attracting international capital to invest and build factories in China.</b></p><p><b>However, the sharp rise in commodity prices this year has led to operational difficulties for some midstream and downstream enterprises.</b>Despite the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the lack of significant expansion in demand has made it difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted downstream, squeezing corporate profits. In May, China's industrial producer purchase price index (PPI) rose 12.5% year-on-year, while the industrial producer price index (EPI) rose 9.0% year-on-year, a mismatch. Among industrial producer prices, prices in the mining industry rose by 36.4%, prices in the raw materials industry by 18.8%, and prices in the processing industry by 7.4%. The price of consumer goods rose by 0.5%.</p><p><b>Faced with rising commodity prices, some companies that were not devastated by the pandemic have been forced to suspend production and operations, which has challenged the stability of China's supply chain and may prompt some overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, by hyping up the commodity super cycle and creating pressures such as high inflation and a wave of overseas rate hike to induce rate hike by the People's Bank of China, it can increase the financing costs of China's real economy, drive up the appreciation of the RMB, lead to difficulties in the operation of China's real economy, and may also cause the bursting of China's asset price bubble and a debt default crisis, making it easier for international speculative capital to \"harvest China\".</b></p><p><b>Hyping up the commodity supercycle could also induce China to allow the yuan to appreciate to combat rising import costs and hit Chinese exports.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2d6b44ac64759f08838e873e9716388\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Faced with this situation, financial regulatory authorities such as the Financial Stability and Development Commission, the People's Bank of China, and the China Banking and Research Commission should severely crack down on commodity speculation, strictly supervise and curb the flow of funds from speculative capital and financial institutions, enforce the trading order of the derivatives market, reduce the \"overheating\" of commodity prices, and allow commodity prices to return to economic fundamentals.</b></p><p><b>In addition, potential attacks by international capital on China's supply side include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Stigmatizing China under the pretext of human rights and inducing overseas companies to decouple from China's supply chain (such as the Xinjiang cotton incident).</b></p><p><b>(2) Relying on technological hegemony to attack China's high-end manufacturing industry, represented by the chip industry, and hinder China's technological progress and industrial upgrading.</b></p><p><b>(3) With the huge attraction of the stock market, the United States excludes companies that are unwilling to join its industrial chain system or that pose a threat to its industrial chain system, while attracting high-quality companies to list in the United States and join the global supply chain system dominated by American companies.</b></p><p><b>(4) Speculating on the RMB exchange rate, inducing or forcing the RMB to appreciate unilaterally, and attacking Chinese export-oriented enterprises.</b>Since the pandemic, China's domestic demand has recovered slowly, while external demand is an important reason supporting the high prosperity of China's manufacturing industry. If exports are affected, the process of China's economic return to normal will inevitably be disrupted.</p><p><b>Third, there is no basis for overall high inflation in China, and inflation is not the main contradiction that the People's Bank of China is currently focusing on in its monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>From the current perspective, China has not been \"fooled\".</b>The People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out in column four that rising global commodity prices may temporarily push up my country's PPI, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. At the recent Lujiazui Forum, Governor Yi stated that my country's PPI growth rate has been relatively high this year, which is partly related to the low base formed by the negative PPI last year. Therefore, we can observe PPI changes from the overall perspective of last year, this year, and next year for three consecutive years. Based on various factors, my country's CPI trend this year is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, with the average CPI increase for the whole year expected to be below 2%.</p><p><b>In a series of articles since March, \"The Da Vinci Code of the Bond Market 'Bulldozer Strategy'—An Exploration of the Breakthrough and Reconstruction of the Modern Central Banking System,\" we have maintained that rising commodity prices are unsustainable and that there is no basis for widespread high inflation in China. The main reasons include:</b></p><p><b>(1) Rising crude oil prices are unlikely to bring imported inflation to China.</b>The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2005 to 2008 was \"China's rapid development + a weak US dollar\"; The background to the rise in crude oil prices from 2008 to 2011 was \"demand expansion brought about by China's 'four trillion yuan' plus a weak US dollar\". This round of crude oil price increases is different from the previous two rounds. China's demand has not expanded on a large scale, and the US dollar is not expected to depreciate in the long term. The supply of new energy and shale oil to replace traditional oil has set a ceiling for crude oil price increases, and the rise in oil prices is likely to reach a peak.</p><p><b>(2) CPI lacks upward momentum.</b>The growth rate of residents' income is still in the process of recovery, which has suppressed the release of consumption potential, and there is insufficient momentum in the core CPI. With hog production continuing to recover and pork prices continuing to decline, coupled with the high base effect, the CPI is likely to remain low in the future. PPI has a weak transmission effect on CPI. Historically, since 2015, the trends of China's CPI and PPI have been divergent or even opposite, making it difficult for rising PPI growth to have a transmission effect on CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498b348e62856293d98771abfa38fe74\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) China’s aggregate demand has not expanded significantly, and there are no conditions for overheated demand to lead to high inflation. It is unlikely that China will experience overheated demand inflation again. Economic data from May shows that China's industrial production has reached its peak, and domestic demand is still recovering but has not yet reached the normal level before the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad5be4f1624ce4e0ee853daf4fca6a7\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation is not currently a key risk factor for regulators. Judging from Chairman Guo's speech at the Lujiazui Forum, the main risks and possible countermeasures that regulators are currently focusing on in the financial sector are:</b></p><p>(1) The rebound in the scale of non-performing loans and the housing bubble. The solution is to accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets and use structured monetary policy tools to curb the rapid rise in housing prices in some areas.</p><p>(2) Shadow banking has made a comeback. The solution is to earnestly implement the new asset management regulations.</p><p>(3) Illegal and irregular activities in the financial sector, such as illegal public offering of securities and Ponzi schemes. Responding to the market involves strengthening administrative supervision, legal penalties, and investor education.</p><p>(4) Risks of investing in financial derivatives. The solutions remain investor education and a crackdown on market speculation. Chairman Guo particularly emphasized that those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold, and other commodity futures have little chance of getting rich.</p><p><b>Fourth, the \"super cycle\" is ultimately a short-term frenzy, and the bond market's \"bulldozer\" has not stopped.</b></p><p><b>Recently, the exaggerated hype surrounding inflation in the market has begun to subside. The stories of \"super cycles\" in commodities told by major international investment banks are no longer appealing. Inflation is not the main contradiction that central banks focus on in monetary policy, and high inflation is unlikely to be enough to drive bond market yields upwards.</b></p><p><b>The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen from the 1.7% range, and the interest rate differential between China and the US has widened again. It is unlikely that US Treasury yields will be able to drive the upward trend of Chinese bond market yields.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5e2f9286c2ab267583e76cdd32b7c4\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This year's government work report calls for further reductions in actual loan interest rates and continued guidance for the financial system to offer benefits to the real economy. This year, it is essential to make financing more convenient for micro and small enterprises and to ensure that overall financing costs remain stable with a slight decline.</p><p>Following the reform of the LPR system, the transmission chain of OMO interest rate, MLF interest rate, LPR interest rate, and loan interest rate has become clearer. According to the first quarter monetary policy implementation report: \"The LPR is formed based on the policy interest rate quote, and the central bank... has improved the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism from the policy interest rate to the LPR interest rate and then to the actual loan interest rate.\" Driving down the actual loan interest rate requires maintaining the stability of the policy interest rate.</p><p><b>This year, we proposed the \"bulldozer strategy,\" believing that there is a trend bull market in the bond market. The two core judgments are: First, the central bank's policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged this year; Second, the tone of \"reasonably ample\" liquidity is likely to remain unchanged this year. Based on this assessment, judging from the current spread between long-term interest rate bond yields, policy interest rates, and market interest rates, there is still room for decline in bond market yields. The intermediate fluctuations are just \"small bumps\" that bring about bull market turbulence and are unlikely to change the overall trend of a bull market.</b></p><p><b>Since June, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield has returned above 3.10%. We recommend that bond market investors continue to adhere to the \"bulldozer strategy\" and seize the window of opportunity to actively allocate to long-term interest rate bonds to earn coupon income!</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470557\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0be9406e3525c187cc490ba8451964d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470557","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118656593","content_text":"作者：邓海清、汪术勤\n6月17日，美联储6月议息会议鹰派程度超预期，沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀。美元指数走强，大宗商品走弱，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期下跌近10BP，大宗商品“超级周期”、“再通胀交易”故事冷场。\n一、通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，市场对高通胀数据反应冷淡，长期通胀预期降温\n今年以来，由于发达国家疫苗普及和大规模财政刺激政策的推出，大宗商品“超级周期”、“再通胀交易”的炒作甚嚣尘上，每隔一段时间，“全球通胀来了”的故事都要对金融市场进行一次扰动。欧美复苏、拜登大规模财政刺激、生产国疫情和天灾、国内的碳中和碳达峰等等，都成为大宗商品和通胀夸大炒作的理由。\n但从近期市场观点和大宗商品价格走势来看，通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，大宗商品价格见顶回落，随着基数抬升，同比涨幅显著下降，市场对通胀及央行货币政策的看法也逐渐发生转变。\n\n6月9日，中国公布5月通胀数据。5月份，中国PPI同比由于基数和大宗价格等原因继续上行，PPI同比上升9.0%，超出市场预期，创2008年9月以来新高。从当日市场表现来看，债市收益率先上后下，市场多数观点认为今年PPI高点已现。\n\n6月11日，美国公布5月通胀数据。5月份，美国CPI同比上升5%，超出市场预期，创2008年9月以来新高，核心CPI同比增速创1992年以来新高。从当日市场表现来看，10年期美债收益率下跌近12BP，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期5月中旬以来呈下跌趋势。\n6月17日，美联储6月议息会议鹰派程度超预期，沉浸于流动性泛滥“水牛”的美国股市、债市、商品三杀，美元指数走强，用通胀指数国债衡量的通胀预期下跌近10BP。\n\n二、大宗商品价格炒作是对中国进行“供给侧攻击”的重要手段\n美国国会参议院在当地时间6月8号投票通过了《2021年美国创新与竞争法案》，其前身正是去年5月提出的《无尽前沿法案》。该法案虽以“产业政策”为名，却更像是一份对华“战斗宣言”，在半导体、5G、太空探索等创新主题的包裹之下，“遏华”内容充斥于字里行间。中美在产业链，尤其是高科技领域产业链的如火如荼。我们在《看见风险系列之三：警惕中国制造可能遭受“供给侧攻击”！！》等文章中已经指出，要高度重视美国针对中国供应链、产业链的“供给侧攻击”，对大宗商品价格的炒作是对中国进行“供给侧攻击”的重要手段。\n2020年新冠疫情发生后，中国疫情防控措施有力，社会经济秩序率先恢复，制造业产能得到保护，顺畅地承接了海外需求，为出口的高增长奠定了基础，成为中国经济韧性的重要来源。相比于东南亚、印度等国的疫情失控和社会封锁，中国的供应链的稳定性承受住了疫情的极限压力测试，吸引国际资本在中国投资建厂。\n但今年以来，大宗商品的大幅涨价导致部分中下游企业经营困难。尽管上游原材料价格涨势凶猛，但由于需求端没有大幅扩张，上游的涨价难以向下游传导，企业盈利受到挤压。5月份中国工业生产者购进价格同比上涨12.5%，工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨9.0%，涨幅不匹配。工业生产者出厂价格中，采掘工业价格上涨36.4%，原材料工业价格上涨18.8%，加工工业价格上涨7.4%。生活资料价格上涨0.5%。\n面对大宗商品价格上涨，未被疫情打垮的部分企业被迫停产、停工，中国供应链的稳定性反而受到挑战，可能促使部分海外企业与中国供应链脱钩。\n同时，通过炒作大宗商品超级周期，制造通胀高企、海外加息潮等压力诱使中国央行加息，可以增加中国实体经济融资成本，同时带动人民币升值，导致中国实体经济经营困难，还可能导致中国资产价格泡沫破裂和出现债务违约危机，便利国际游资“收割中国”。\n炒作大宗商品超级周期，还可以诱使中国允许人民币升值以对抗进口成本上涨，打击中国出口。\n\n面对这种局面，金稳委、一行两会等金融监管部门应严厉打击大宗商品炒作行为，严格监管遏制游资、金融机构资金流向，严肃衍生品市场交易秩序，为大宗商品价格“降虚火”，使大宗商品价格回归经济基本面。\n此外，国际资本对中国供给侧的潜在攻击手段还包括：\n（1）以人权等借口污名化中国，诱导海外企业与中国供应链脱钩（比如新疆棉花事件）。\n（2）凭借科技霸权，打击以芯片行业为代表的中国高端制造业，阻击中国技术进步和产业升级。\n（3）美国凭借股市的巨大吸引力，排斥不愿加入其产业链体系或对其产业链体系有威胁的企业，同时吸引优质企业赴美上市，加入美国企业主导的全球供应链体系。\n（4）炒作人民币汇率，诱使或逼迫人民币单边升值，打击中国出口型企业。疫情后，中国内需恢复较慢，外需是支撑中国制造业高景气的重要原因，如果出口受到影响，中国经济恢复常态化的进程必然受到干扰。\n三、中国不存在全面高通胀的基础，通胀并非当前中国央行货币政策关注的主要矛盾\n从目前来看，中国并未“上当”。央行一季度货币政策执行报告在专栏四中指出，全球大宗商品价格上涨可能阶段性推升我国PPI，但输入性通胀的风险总体可控。不存在长期通胀或通缩的基础。在近日的陆家嘴论坛上，易行长表示，今年以来我国PPI增幅较高，一定程度上与去年PPI为负形成的低基数有关，所以我们可以用去年今年和明年连续三年的整体视角来观察PPI变化。综合各方面因素判断，今年我国CPI走势前低后高，全年的CPI平均涨幅预计在2%以下。\n我们在3月份《债市“推土机策略”的达芬奇密码——探析现代中央银行制度的破题与再造》以来的一系列文章中都坚持认为，大宗商品价格上涨不可持续，中国不存在全面高通胀的基础，主要理由包括：\n（1）原油价格上涨难以给中国带来输入型通胀。2005—2008年原油价格上涨的背景是“中国高速发展+弱美元”；2008—2011年原油价格上涨的背景是“中国‘四万亿’带来的需求扩张+弱美元”。本轮原油价格上涨与前两轮不可同日而语，中国的需求没有大规模扩张，美元也没有长期贬值预期，新能源和页岩油对传统石油的供给替代为原油价格上涨设置了天花板，油价上行大概率有顶。\n（2）CPI缺乏上行动力。居民收入增速仍在恢复过程中，抑制了消费潜力的释放，核心CPI上行动力不足。生猪生产不断恢复，猪肉价格持续回落，加之高基数影响，未来CPI大概率继续低位运行。PPI对CPI传导效应弱，从历史上看，自2015年以来，中国的CPI和PPI走势割裂甚至相反，PPI增速上涨难以对CPI形成传导。\n\n（3）中国的总需求未大幅扩张，不存在需求过热导致通胀高企的条件，中国恐难再现需求过热型通胀。从5月经济数据来看，中国工业生产景气高点已现，内需仍在恢复但尚未达到疫情前正常水平。\n\n通胀并非当前监管层重点关注的风险点。从郭主席在陆家嘴论坛的演讲来看，当前监管层重点关注的金融领域风险和可能的应对方案主要是：\n（1）不良贷款规模反弹和房市泡沫。应对之策是加快不良资产处置力度，运用结构化货币政策工具遏制局部地区房价过快上涨。\n（2）影子银行死灰复燃。应对之策是认真落实资管新规。\n（3）金融领域违法违规行为，如非法公开发行证券和庞氏骗局等。应对市场是加强行政监管、法律处罚和投资者教育。\n（4）金融衍生品投资风险。应对之策还是投资者教育和严厉打击市场炒作。郭主席特别强调，那些炒作外汇、黄金及其他商品期货的人很难有机会发家致富。\n四、“超级周期”终归是短期的狂欢，债市“推土机”并未熄火\n近期市场上通胀夸大炒作初显退潮，国际大投行讲述的大宗商品“超级周期”故事已经“不香了”，通胀并非央行货币政策关注的主要矛盾，高通胀恐难以推动债市收益率趋势性上行。\n近期十年期美债收益率已经由1.7%区间下行，中美利差再度拉大，美债收益率恐难以推动中国债市收益率趋势性上行。\n\n今年政府工作报告要求，推动实际贷款利率进一步降低，继续引导金融系统向实体经济让利。今年务必做到小微企业融资更便利、综合融资成本稳中有降。\n在LPR制度改革后，OMO利率—MLF利率—LPR利率—贷款利率的传导链条更加明确。根据一季度货币政策执行报告：“LPR基于政策利率报价形成，央行……健全从政策利率到LPR利率再到实际贷款利率的市场化利率形成和传导机制。”推动实际贷款利率下降更需要保持政策利率的稳定。\n我们今年提出“推土机策略”，认为债券市场存在趋势性牛市的两大核心判断在于：第一，今年央行政策利率大概率保持不变；第二，今年流动性“合理充裕”的基调大概率保持不变。在此判断的基础上，从当前长端利率债收益率和政策利率、市场利率的利差来看，债券市场收益率依然存在下行空间，中间的震荡只是带来牛市颠簸的“小土包”，难改趋势性牛市大势。\n6月份以来，十年国债收益率再次回到3.10%以上，我们建议债市投资继续坚守“推土机策略”，抓住窗口期积极配置长久期利率债吃票息！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161391981,"gmtCreate":1623903776443,"gmtModify":1703823126475,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161391981","repostId":"2144843711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161390747,"gmtCreate":1623903670389,"gmtModify":1703823123701,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161390747","repostId":"2144711488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144711488","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623900405,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144711488?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144711488","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"此次调整，并非加息，而是对利率走廊框架的技术性调整。","content":"<p><b>What happened?</b></p><p>In the early hours of June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision, deciding to keep the policy rate near zero and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, but raising the two major management rates.</p><p>Specifically, the Federal Reserve raised the upper limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the excess reserve ratio (IOER)—from 0.10% to 0.15%, and raised the lower limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP)—from zero to 0.05%. The two major interest rate adjustments took effect on June 17 local time.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year. While reiterating that the rise in inflation is mainly due to temporary factors, it signaled that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023. Federal Reserve policymakers expect rate hike to arrive sooner than when they announced their expected interest rate guidelines in March of this year.</p><p><b>What are IOER and ON RRP?</b></p><p>IOER stands for Interest Rate on Excess Reserves. The so-called excess reserves refer to the reserves held by commercial banks and deposit-taking financial institutions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The portion of the actual reserves on the deposit account that exceeds the statutory reserves. The Federal Reserve pays interest on excess reserves, and its interest rate is the excess reserve rate.</p><p>IOER is the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. An IOER greater than zero means that commercial banks can keep their excess daily liquidity at the Federal Reserve for a free lunch. Therefore, unless the Federal Funds rate is higher than the IOER, commercial banks have no incentive to withdraw their excess reserves for interbank lending.</p><p>The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to withdraw liquidity from non-bank institutions, especially money market funds, in order to quickly absorb excess liquidity from outside the banking system in the short term. Money market funds, federal mortgage banks, and other institutions deposit excess reserves in the Federal Reserve's accounts through repurchase transactions and earn interest.</p><p>ON RRP is the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. If Federal Funds rate falls below the reverse repo rate, non-bank institutions will choose to lend money to the Federal Reserve, ultimately leading to a tight market and an increase in Federal Funds rate.</p><p>Federal Funds rate fluctuates between these upper and lower limits.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Haitong Macro's Liang Zhonghua and Li Jun analyzed that<b>This adjustment is not a rate hike, but a technical adjustment to the Interest Rate Corridor framework:</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it is to solve the problem of declining effective Federal Funds rate.</b>For example, it once fell to a historical low of 0.05% on April 30, and has since declined to 0.05% multiple times.<b>On the other hand, it is to address the issues of rising overnight reverse repos and money market interest rates exceeding 0%.</b>For example, since June 9, the daily overnight reverse repurchase volume has exceeded $500 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908bbe41f8fa1c37aac64b112fbdf3\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve launched this round of reverse repos in March of this year and kept them below 100 billion yuan until late April. However, as of June 16, the Federal Reserve's reverse repos exceeded $500 billion for five consecutive trading days, a new high since data became available (Note: The main purpose of the Fed's reverse repos is to withdraw funds, which is the opposite of the reverse repos operated by the People's Bank of China in the open market).</p><p>The sharp surge in reverse repurchase balances reflects the current state of excess dollar liquidity in the US financial market.<b>In other words, overnight reverse repos are a haven for market funds during periods of excess liquidity.</b></p><p>When liquidity is excessive, market funds often choose to buy US Treasury Bond in pursuit of safe assets. When a large amount of funds buy US Treasury bonds, US Treasury yields will continue to decline and may even fall into negative interest rate territory. At this point, overnight reverse repurchase agreements become a safe haven for market funds because the overnight reverse repurchase rate acts as the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Federal Reserve does not want to fall into negative interest rates, the overnight reverse repurchase rate remains at 0% even in a post-pandemic zero-interest-rate environment.</p><p>Prior to this increase, the ON RRP rate was only zero, which still attracted a large amount of capital. This means that funds chasing short-term yields have nowhere to go and can only be deposited into the Federal Reserve without interest.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously pointed out that moderately raising the ON RRP rate can not only withdraw excess residual liquidity, but also correct the reaction of interest rates to the money market and allow deposit-taking institutions to maintain normal operations (positive slight profits).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group ING believes that while raising IOER and ON RRP is a technical move that the Federal Reserve downplays, the impact and marginal direction of the policy remain clear:</p><p>This is certainly not a policy easing; in fact, it coincides with a series of recent similar tightening measures, including the Federal Reserve's decision in March not to renew the expiration of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) relief measures, and the announcement earlier this month of selling off corporate bond instruments that were specially rescued during last year's pandemic. ING points out that raising the ON RRP Rate itself will not reduce the use of reverse repos by financial institutions, but combined with the increase in IOER, it may push up the market-driven Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), thereby reducing the pressure ON the use of reverse repos. SOFR, which uses U.S. Treasury Bond as collateral, is a broad metric used to calculate the cost of overnight lending.</p><p>References:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guoxin Securities</a>\"The Past and Present of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Control\"</p><p>Huachuang Securities, \"Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Handbook – Federal Reserve Chapter\"</p><p>Haitong Macro, \"The Fed Shows Signs of a 'Hawkish' Turn – Commentary on the Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat does it mean that the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw liquidity?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>What happened?</b></p><p>In the early hours of June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision, deciding to keep the policy rate near zero and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, but raising the two major management rates.</p><p>Specifically, the Federal Reserve raised the upper limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the excess reserve ratio (IOER)—from 0.10% to 0.15%, and raised the lower limit of the Federal Funds rate range—the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP)—from zero to 0.05%. The two major interest rate adjustments took effect on June 17 local time.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year. While reiterating that the rise in inflation is mainly due to temporary factors, it signaled that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023. Federal Reserve policymakers expect rate hike to arrive sooner than when they announced their expected interest rate guidelines in March of this year.</p><p><b>What are IOER and ON RRP?</b></p><p>IOER stands for Interest Rate on Excess Reserves. The so-called excess reserves refer to the reserves held by commercial banks and deposit-taking financial institutions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The portion of the actual reserves on the deposit account that exceeds the statutory reserves. The Federal Reserve pays interest on excess reserves, and its interest rate is the excess reserve rate.</p><p>IOER is the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. An IOER greater than zero means that commercial banks can keep their excess daily liquidity at the Federal Reserve for a free lunch. Therefore, unless the Federal Funds rate is higher than the IOER, commercial banks have no incentive to withdraw their excess reserves for interbank lending.</p><p>The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to withdraw liquidity from non-bank institutions, especially money market funds, in order to quickly absorb excess liquidity from outside the banking system in the short term. Money market funds, federal mortgage banks, and other institutions deposit excess reserves in the Federal Reserve's accounts through repurchase transactions and earn interest.</p><p>ON RRP is the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. If Federal Funds rate falls below the reverse repo rate, non-bank institutions will choose to lend money to the Federal Reserve, ultimately leading to a tight market and an increase in Federal Funds rate.</p><p>Federal Funds rate fluctuates between these upper and lower limits.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Haitong Macro's Liang Zhonghua and Li Jun analyzed that<b>This adjustment is not a rate hike, but a technical adjustment to the Interest Rate Corridor framework:</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it is to solve the problem of declining effective Federal Funds rate.</b>For example, it once fell to a historical low of 0.05% on April 30, and has since declined to 0.05% multiple times.<b>On the other hand, it is to address the issues of rising overnight reverse repos and money market interest rates exceeding 0%.</b>For example, since June 9, the daily overnight reverse repurchase volume has exceeded $500 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908bbe41f8fa1c37aac64b112fbdf3\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve launched this round of reverse repos in March of this year and kept them below 100 billion yuan until late April. However, as of June 16, the Federal Reserve's reverse repos exceeded $500 billion for five consecutive trading days, a new high since data became available (Note: The main purpose of the Fed's reverse repos is to withdraw funds, which is the opposite of the reverse repos operated by the People's Bank of China in the open market).</p><p>The sharp surge in reverse repurchase balances reflects the current state of excess dollar liquidity in the US financial market.<b>In other words, overnight reverse repos are a haven for market funds during periods of excess liquidity.</b></p><p>When liquidity is excessive, market funds often choose to buy US Treasury Bond in pursuit of safe assets. When a large amount of funds buy US Treasury bonds, US Treasury yields will continue to decline and may even fall into negative interest rate territory. At this point, overnight reverse repurchase agreements become a safe haven for market funds because the overnight reverse repurchase rate acts as the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Federal Reserve does not want to fall into negative interest rates, the overnight reverse repurchase rate remains at 0% even in a post-pandemic zero-interest-rate environment.</p><p>Prior to this increase, the ON RRP rate was only zero, which still attracted a large amount of capital. This means that funds chasing short-term yields have nowhere to go and can only be deposited into the Federal Reserve without interest.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously pointed out that moderately raising the ON RRP rate can not only withdraw excess residual liquidity, but also correct the reaction of interest rates to the money market and allow deposit-taking institutions to maintain normal operations (positive slight profits).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group ING believes that while raising IOER and ON RRP is a technical move that the Federal Reserve downplays, the impact and marginal direction of the policy remain clear:</p><p>This is certainly not a policy easing; in fact, it coincides with a series of recent similar tightening measures, including the Federal Reserve's decision in March not to renew the expiration of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) relief measures, and the announcement earlier this month of selling off corporate bond instruments that were specially rescued during last year's pandemic. ING points out that raising the ON RRP Rate itself will not reduce the use of reverse repos by financial institutions, but combined with the increase in IOER, it may push up the market-driven Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), thereby reducing the pressure ON the use of reverse repos. SOFR, which uses U.S. Treasury Bond as collateral, is a broad metric used to calculate the cost of overnight lending.</p><p>References:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guoxin Securities</a>\"The Past and Present of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Control\"</p><p>Huachuang Securities, \"Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Handbook – Federal Reserve Chapter\"</p><p>Haitong Macro, \"The Fed Shows Signs of a 'Hawkish' Turn – Commentary on the Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633128\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633128","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144711488","content_text":"发生了什么？\n北京时间6月17日凌晨，美联储发布利率决议，仍决定保持近零的政策利率和QE购债规模不变，但上调了两大管理利率。\n具体来看，美联储将联邦基金利率区间的上限——超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.10%上调至0.15%，将联邦基金利率区间的下限——隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）从零上调至0.05%。两大利率调整自当地时间6月17日开始生效。\n此外，美联储明显上调了今年的通胀预期，虽然重申通胀上升主要来自暂时的因素，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。相比今年3月公布预期利率路线时，联储决策者预计加息会更快到来。\n什么是IOER和ON RRP？\nIOER全称 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves，即超额准备金利率。所谓超额准备金是指商业银行及存款性金融机构在中央银行存款帐户上的实际准备金超过法定准备金的部分。美联储对超额准备金支付利息，其利率就是超额准备金利率。\nIOER是美联储利率的上限。大于零的IOER意味着商业银行日常多余的流动性可以放在美联储享受免费的午餐，因此除非联邦基金利率高于IOER，否则商业银行没有动力力将自己的超额准备金调出用于拆借。\n隔夜逆回购协议便利（ON RRP）则是美联储从非银机构，特别是货币市场基金回笼流动性的工具，目的是为了短期内迅速吸收那些来自于银行体系之外的超额流动性。货币市场基金、联邦住房贷款银行等机构通过回购交易，将过剩储备金存在美联储账户上并获得利息。\nON RRP是美联储利率的下限，如果联邦基金利率低于逆回购利率，那么非银机构就会选择将钱借给美联储，最终使得市场资金紧张，联邦基金利率上升。\n联邦基金利率便在这上下限之间波动。\n意味着什么？\n海通宏观梁中华、李俊分析指出，此次调整，并非加息，而是对利率走廊框架的技术性调整：\n\n一方面是为了解决有效联邦基金利率不断下滑的问题，例如4月30日一度下行至0.05%的历史低点，此后也多次下滑至0.05%；\n 另一方面是为了解决隔夜逆回购用量不断上升、货币市场利率突破0%的问题，例如自6月9日起，每天隔夜逆回购用量均超过5000亿美元。\n \n\n本轮美联储开启逆回购是在今年3月，到4月下旬之前始终保持1000亿元以内。但截至6月16日，美联储连续5个交易日逆回购超5000亿美元，创有数据以来新高（注：美联储逆回购主要作用是回笼资金，方向与中国央行公开市场操作的逆回购相反）。\n逆回购余额的大幅飙升反映的是美国金融市场美元流动性过剩的现状，换句话说，隔夜逆回购是流动性过剩时期的市场资金庇护所。\n当流动性过剩时，为追求安全资产，市场资金往往会选择购买美国国债，当大量资金购买美债时，美债收益率会不断下行，甚至可能跌入负利率区间。此时，隔夜逆回购协议就成为市场资金的安全庇护所，因为隔夜逆回购利率充当着美联储利率走廊下限的作用，由于美联储并不希望落入负利率，因此即便在疫情后0利率的环境下，隔夜逆回购利率水平也在0%。\n在此次上调之前，ON RRP利率只有零，仍然吸引了大批资金。这代表追逐短期收益率的资金根本无处可去，只能无息放入美联储。\n华尔街见闻此前分析指出，适度上调ON RRP利率既能回笼过多的剩余流动性，也能纠正当利率对货币市场的反应，并容许存款机构维持正常化经营（正向微利）。\n荷兰国际集团ING认为，虽然上调IOER和ON RRP是一个技术性的举动，美联储对此轻描淡写，但政策的影响和边际方向仍然是明确的：\n\n 这肯定不是一种政策上的放松，实际上与最近一系列类似紧缩的举措相吻合，包括今年3月美联储决定补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施到期不续，以及本月初宣布的抛售去年疫情期间特别入市救助的公司债工具。\n\nING指出，上调ON RRP利率本身并不会减少金融机构对逆回购的使用，但结合IOER的抬升，可能会推高由市场驱动的担保隔夜融资利率SOFR（Secured Overnight Financing Rate），从而减少对逆回购的使用压力。SOFR以美国国债作为抵押品，是一个用来计算隔夜借贷成本的广泛指标。\n参考资料：\n国信证券，《美联储利率调控的“前世今生”》\n华创证券，《全球央行货币政策手册——美联储篇》\n海通宏观，《美联储显“转鹰”信号——美联储6月议息会议点评》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161307707,"gmtCreate":1623903632309,"gmtModify":1703823122226,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161307707","repostId":"2144719786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144719786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623901955,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144719786?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144719786","media":"格隆汇","summary":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储20","content":"<p><h2>The highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has finally come to a close.</h2>This meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and to maintain monthly bond purchases at $120 billion, which was in line with market expectations, but also sent a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts that the Federal Reserve will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there was no rate hike and no reduction in bond purchases, the strengthening of expectations for rate hike in the future still triggered a major shock in global markets.</p><p>Following the news, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% at one point. The decline only narrowed after Powell reassured the market at a press conference, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US dollar spot exchange rate index rose 0.6%, briefly breaking through 0.7% during the session, its biggest gain since January 27, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 91 mark.</p><p>Gold futures prices fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce in August, while spot prices plummeted by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. U.S. COMEX gold futures and WTI futures prices also declined.</p><p>Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply today, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 1%, while the South Korean, Singaporean, and Australian S&P 500 indices experienced significant open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the initial decline in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets yesterday in anticipation of the liquidity tightening risk caused by the Federal Reserve's decision, the ChiNext index plummeted by more than 4%, releasing a sense of panic. Today, the A-share market saw a slight open low before rebounding. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged and rebounded 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what are the views of various institutional leaders on this interest rate meeting, which is considered the most important of the year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said, \"A more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases, may be detrimental to dollar short sellers in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Federal Reserve policymakers expect increased rate hike to push up real interest rates and strengthen the dollar's upward momentum, at least in the short term, with the dot plot showing a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term outcome of adjusting management interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dove\" nor does it \"stick to its temporary inflation theory.\" The support the Fed provided for the euro to rise against the dollar is no longer there, ending his trading recommendation to go long on the euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy: \"Large-cap U.S. stocks will be fine, but this shift by the Fed is detrimental to speculative technology stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood of the market rising out of control.\"</p><p><b>5. Anben Standard Investment</b></p><p>Deputy Chief Economist James McCann: “This exceeded market expectations. This shift in stance is inconsistent with the Federal Reserve’s recent statement that rising inflation is temporary. If price volatility is temporary, there is no clear reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially given the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In the eyes of some, this certainly sends a signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is deepening its concerns about inflation.”</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Chief U.S. Economist Paul Ashworth: \"The Fed's insistence that the surge in inflation 'roughly' reflects a 'temporary factor,' but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and the median forecast now indicates two 25-basis-point rate hike in 2023. We previously assumed the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market—hence only one 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.\" But we clearly misjudged the Federal Reserve's ever-changing response mechanisms and its tolerance for inflation.</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Federal Reserve acknowledged that the effects of supply bottlenecks are likely to be greater than expected, and that inflation expectations may also be higher and longer-lasting than the Fed expects. It also stated that it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from concerns to reality, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as it previously appeared.</p><p><b>8. CICC</b></p><p>This meeting did not significantly change the pace of the Federal Reserve's exit. The appropriate time is still likely to be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the US Treasury and dollar markets react so strongly? This is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, as well as a partial \"correction\" of previous pricing issues. The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation remains temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no mention of cutting QE in anticipation of a strong economic recovery? The Federal Reserve also needs to help the Treasury reduce the cost of issuing Treasury Bond; Taper signals need to wait for Q3; the real risks may arise in the second half of the year. We expect QE to be reduced in Q3. The Biden administration may intend to release risks to US stocks within the year.</p><p><b>The views of these experts are largely convergent, confirming the Fed's hawkish signals and expressing the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectations will have on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of global capital market liquidity, although Powell still has ample motivation to protect the US capital market, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner against the backdrop of persistently high inflation. Powell does not have much choice but to keep dragging his feet, hoping that the economy, prices, and employment can provide more support so that he does not stay in a corner for too long and can calmly put down the rate hike knife.</b></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's \"hawkish stance\" has caused a major shock to global markets. What are the opinions of various industry leaders?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2>The highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has finally come to a close.</h2>This meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and to maintain monthly bond purchases at $120 billion, which was in line with market expectations, but also sent a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts that the Federal Reserve will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there was no rate hike and no reduction in bond purchases, the strengthening of expectations for rate hike in the future still triggered a major shock in global markets.</p><p>Following the news, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% at one point. The decline only narrowed after Powell reassured the market at a press conference, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US dollar spot exchange rate index rose 0.6%, briefly breaking through 0.7% during the session, its biggest gain since January 27, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 91 mark.</p><p>Gold futures prices fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce in August, while spot prices plummeted by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. U.S. COMEX gold futures and WTI futures prices also declined.</p><p>Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply today, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 1%, while the South Korean, Singaporean, and Australian S&P 500 indices experienced significant open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the initial decline in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets yesterday in anticipation of the liquidity tightening risk caused by the Federal Reserve's decision, the ChiNext index plummeted by more than 4%, releasing a sense of panic. Today, the A-share market saw a slight open low before rebounding. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged and rebounded 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what are the views of various institutional leaders on this interest rate meeting, which is considered the most important of the year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said, \"A more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases, may be detrimental to dollar short sellers in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Federal Reserve policymakers expect increased rate hike to push up real interest rates and strengthen the dollar's upward momentum, at least in the short term, with the dot plot showing a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term outcome of adjusting management interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dove\" nor does it \"stick to its temporary inflation theory.\" The support the Fed provided for the euro to rise against the dollar is no longer there, ending his trading recommendation to go long on the euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy: \"Large-cap U.S. stocks will be fine, but this shift by the Fed is detrimental to speculative technology stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood of the market rising out of control.\"</p><p><b>5. Anben Standard Investment</b></p><p>Deputy Chief Economist James McCann: “This exceeded market expectations. This shift in stance is inconsistent with the Federal Reserve’s recent statement that rising inflation is temporary. If price volatility is temporary, there is no clear reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially given the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In the eyes of some, this certainly sends a signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is deepening its concerns about inflation.”</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Chief U.S. Economist Paul Ashworth: \"The Fed's insistence that the surge in inflation 'roughly' reflects a 'temporary factor,' but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and the median forecast now indicates two 25-basis-point rate hike in 2023. We previously assumed the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market—hence only one 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.\" But we clearly misjudged the Federal Reserve's ever-changing response mechanisms and its tolerance for inflation.</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Federal Reserve acknowledged that the effects of supply bottlenecks are likely to be greater than expected, and that inflation expectations may also be higher and longer-lasting than the Fed expects. It also stated that it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from concerns to reality, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as it previously appeared.</p><p><b>8. CICC</b></p><p>This meeting did not significantly change the pace of the Federal Reserve's exit. The appropriate time is still likely to be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the US Treasury and dollar markets react so strongly? This is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, as well as a partial \"correction\" of previous pricing issues. The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation remains temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no mention of cutting QE in anticipation of a strong economic recovery? The Federal Reserve also needs to help the Treasury reduce the cost of issuing Treasury Bond; Taper signals need to wait for Q3; the real risks may arise in the second half of the year. We expect QE to be reduced in Q3. The Biden administration may intend to release risks to US stocks within the year.</p><p><b>The views of these experts are largely convergent, confirming the Fed's hawkish signals and expressing the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectations will have on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of global capital market liquidity, although Powell still has ample motivation to protect the US capital market, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner against the backdrop of persistently high inflation. Powell does not have much choice but to keep dragging his feet, hoping that the economy, prices, and employment can provide more support so that he does not stay in a corner for too long and can calmly put down the rate hike knife.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144719786","content_text":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储2023年底前将至少加息两次。\n\n虽然没有加息，也没有缩减购债规模，但未来要加息的预期加强还是引发全球市场巨震。\n消息一出，美股三大股指一度均跌逾1%，鲍威尔在新闻发布会再度安抚市场后跌幅才收窄，美国10年期国债收益率则冲破1.5%。\n\n美元即期汇率指数上涨0.6%，盘中一度破0.7%，为1月27日以来最大涨幅，美元指数则直线升破91关口。\n8月份黄金期货价格大幅下跌1.2%，至每盎司1834.20美元，现货价格则暴跌1.6%，至每盎司1829.26美元，美国COMEX黄金期货价格、WTI期货价格也都出现下跌。\n今日亚太市场开盘，日经225指数开盘急剧下跌1%，韩国、新加坡、澳洲标普指数等明显低开。\n\n但由于昨日A股港股市场先跌提前预期美联储决议的收流动性风险，创业板暴跌了超4%，释放了恐慌气氛。今日A股市场反而小幅低开后高走反弹，截至发文，沪指涨0.37%，深成指上涨1.2%，创业板大涨反弹2%。\n\n那么，对于这次被称为本年度最重要的议息会议，各家机构大佬又如何看待？\n1、高盛\n分析师Zach Pandl表示：“美联储观点更加强硬，以及市场上越来越多有关购债缩减的争论，短期内可能不利于美元空头。”\n2、纽约梅隆银行\n策略师John Velis表示，美联储决策者预期加息次数增多可能会推升实际利率，增强美元涨势的动力，至少在短期内会如此，点阵图显示的加息路径更加鹰派，以及调整管理利率的一个可预见的短期结果。\n3、德意志银行\n外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos：美联储不再是“持久鸽派”，也不“坚持它的临时性通胀说”，美联储为欧元兑美元上行提供的支撑已不复存在，结束做多欧元兑美元的交易建议。\n4、Evercore ISI投资\n组合策略主管Dennis DeBusschere：“美股大盘股不会有事，但美联储的这种转变不利于投机性科技股。鉴于最近这些股票上涨，这件事很有趣，这也降低了市场涨到失控的可能性。\n5、安本标准投资\n副首席经济学家James McCann：“这超出了市场预期。这个立场转变跟美联储最近说通胀上升是暂时的并不一致。如果价格波动是暂时的，没有明显理由需要比计划更早加息，尤其是在最近劳动力市场表现让人失望的情况下。在一些人看来，这当然会释放出联邦公开市场委员会对通胀的担忧加深的信号。”\n6、凯投宏观\n首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth：“美联储坚持通胀蹿升‘大致’反映了‘暂时性因素’的说法，但官员们大幅上调了今年通胀率预测，而且现在预测中值显示2023年将有两次各25基点的加息。我们之前假设美联储会更愿意让通胀上升，以确保劳动力市场‘广泛而包容性’复苏——因此预期只有一次25个基点的加息。但我们显然误判了美联储不断变化的反应机制和对通胀的容忍。”\n7、华泰证券\n美联储承认了供给瓶颈的效应比预期更大的可能性，通胀预期也可能比美联储的预期更高且更持久，并表示如果有迹象表明通胀预期正在实质性并且持续地超出预期，将会调整货币政策立场。这意味着持续的通胀预期也可能逐渐由担忧转向现实，美联储对通胀的容忍度可能没之前表现地那么坚定。\n8、中金\n此次会议并没有大幅改变了美联储的退出节奏。合适时间依然可能是在年底或者四季度。那么美债和美元市场为何反应如此剧烈？主要是市场对于美联储利率散点图暗示加息节奏可能提前的反应，以及对于前期定价问题的部分「纠正」。美联储对于通胀的判断依然是暂时性且逐步消退。\n9、广发证券\n预期经济强劲回升为何只字不提削减QE？美联储还需帮助财政部压低国债发行成本；Taper信号需待Q3，真正的风险或在下半年，我们预计：Q3削减QE；拜登政府或有意在年内释放美股风险。\n从这些大佬的观点上，大致趋同，都确认了美联储鹰派信号，也表达了美联储的加息预期将给资本市场造成的利空。\n作为全球资本市场流动性之锚，尽管鲍威尔呵护美国资本市场的动机还充足，但在通胀持续高企的现实背景下，美联储其实已经被逼入墙角，鲍威尔也没有太多的选择余地，能够做的只是不断往后拖，希望经济、物价、就业能够多给点力，让他不至于在墙角呆太久，能够从容地放下加息这把刀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160528305,"gmtCreate":1623802473207,"gmtModify":1703819737301,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160528305","repostId":"1134804844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134804844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134804844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134804844","media":"第一财经","summary":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的","content":"<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that a more balanced allocation is necessary during this period. Why did US inflation data hit a 13-year high but still not shake investor sentiment? Why did US Treasury yields fall instead of rising? How should one invest as a tightening cycle approaches? These are all huge questions that have been lingering in the minds of investors recently. Morgan Stanley recently stated that economic growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of this year experienced exceptionally strong demand, which may indicate that the rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The US market seems to agree with this, causing bond yields to peak and then fall...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. With shrinking balance sheet approaching, how should one invest?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that a more balanced allocation is necessary during this period. Why did US inflation data hit a 13-year high but still not shake investor sentiment? Why did US Treasury yields fall instead of rising? How should one invest as a tightening cycle approaches? These are all huge questions that have been lingering in the minds of investors recently. Morgan Stanley recently stated that economic growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of this year experienced exceptionally strong demand, which may indicate that the rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The US market seems to agree with this, causing bond yields to peak and then fall...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134804844","content_text":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的巨大疑问。\n摩根士丹利最新表示，明年经济增长和通胀预计仍将相当强劲。然而，今年第一季度经历了异常旺盛的需求，可能标志着增长和通胀的上升速率已达峰值。美国市场似乎也认同这一点，债券收益率因此触顶回落，一些周期性较强的股票也出现盘整。在一季度盈利大幅上修后，大摩现在认为未来继续上修的空间有限，毕竟一季度发生的一些事情未来不太会重复——经济重启叠加巨大的财政刺激带动了消费，加密市场泡沫也强化了财富效应。\n市场预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题。随着紧缩周期不断临近，投资策略也不同于早周期，盈利增速将成主要驱动力。年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n通胀预期可能触顶\n数据显示，美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%，超过预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；剔除不稳定的食品与能源价格的核心CPI年率达3.8%，同样超过市场预期的3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n\n美国整体通胀率。来源：Wind，美国劳工部\n然而，在6月10日上述数据发布后，10年期美债收益率不涨反跌，收盘仅报1.454%。美股也照涨不误，标普500指数上周五收于4247.44点，距离突破历史新高的4249.74点仅一步之遥。\n大摩认为，这背后的原因可能在于，通胀预期或已经近乎见顶。\n摩根士丹利首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael J Wilson）对记者表示，通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场此前已变得非常拥挤，特别是在零售市场，因此无论通胀数据结果如何，回调的时机已经成熟；盈亏平衡通胀率已经反映了市场对通胀的乐观预期，达到10年高点；此外，企业和消费者调查都表明，他们对通胀的预期发生了变化，认为通胀是更持续性的而非间歇性的，这一点很重要，因为预期可以导致行为变化。\n“尽管所有这些指标都大幅走高，但它们似乎也已见顶，10年期国债名义收益率和盈亏平衡收益率已触顶回落。这可能是一个早期信号，表明后续经济增长和通胀都可能不及目前过高的预期。”威尔逊称。\n影响这一预期的关键仍和需求水平有关。一季度高达1.9万亿美元的财政刺激拉动了消费，叠加加密货币扩张又带来了近1万亿美元的财富效应。但机构认为，这两种情况都不太可能在二、三季度重演，这也会逐步体现在经济增速和通胀数据上。\n从名义利率拆解来看，2月中旬之前，美债收益率快速攀升主要受通胀预期回升驱动。疫情后美国经济加速复苏，叠加拜登政府推岀的一轮轮大规模财政刺激，通胀预期不断升温，彼时实际利率受疫情反复等因素的影响持续磨底。\n在突破1.3%后，通胀预期趋于缓和，实际利率替代通胀预期成为推动美债收益率快速上行的核心因素，这也意味着彼时市场的关注点更多落在经济数据的改善上。近期美债收益率的下行，更多则源于通胀预期和实际利率的同步走弱。隐含通胀预期从5月峰值下降近19BP，与CPI连续两个月的大幅上涨形成了鲜明对比。显然，美联储官员以及美国财长耶伦关于“通胀上升是暂时的”的说法终于让市场开始买账了，投资者开始相信，供给短缺造成的涨价将会缓解，且服务性需求的攀升也不可能一直持续下去。\n\n另一些因素可能也在推动收益率下行。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper对记者表示，债市正在对某些国家的新冠肺炎疫情未能受控的担忧做出反应，尤其是在更令人担忧的Delta变异病毒株迅速传播的情况下，这可能会抑制经济增长。Delta变异病毒株占英国新病例的90%，并且很可能成为美国的主要毒株；此外，美国以外的投资者仍被美国国债所吸引，特别是考虑到欧元区的利率非常低。上周的一个催化剂是美元走软，这刺激了外国购买美国政府债券。\n紧缩周期前夕应均衡配置\n不过，通胀预期触顶并不代表通胀会很快下行，更不代表全球央行尤其是美联储永远不“收水”。\nKristina Hooper预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题，可能会在夏末的杰克逊·霍尔会议（Jackson Hole）上宣布缩表时间点，并于秋季开始实行。但市场可能还没有准备好接受这个消息，预计美债收益率可能在下半年上升。\n历史数据也显示，即使在经济增长动能见顶放缓、流动性边际收紧的时期，股市表现仍可能保持良好，盈利增长是驱动股价攀升的关键。当然回报往往会弱于经济强劲增长的时期。在行业配置上，比起在上一个阶段侧重于顺周期板块的配置，在当前的中周期，行业配置就需要在长期可持续成长和顺周期板块中求取平衡。\n年初以来，从成长到价值的板块轮动加速。但事实上，5月以来，早周期板块相较于标普500的表现已明显触顶回落，这也和美债收益率触顶回落的时间点吻合。\n\n大摩认为，在成长（growth）和价值/周期性行业（value）之间，后疫情时代的每股收益驱动因素将更加均衡，消费者服务、运输、能源和资本物品等板块预计将成为价值/周期板块的重要增长驱动力，这和过去两年有较大不同，当时每股收益增长主要集中在科技和通信服务。\n未来，更高的利润率预期主要是由科技、互联网和制药行业推动的。就不同板块对整体营业利润的贡献来看，科技公司仍占主导。具体而言，传媒和娱乐行业(以谷歌和脸书主导）的利润增长几乎占预期利润增长的四分之一，软件/服务占17%，零售服务占16%（其中亚马逊一家公司就贡献了近三分之二），半导体占12%，科技硬件占10%，制药占11%。\n之所以这一时期要均衡配置，也是因为从绝对角度看，大摩认为预期利润率涨幅最大的是科技股和一些周期性行业，部分周期性行业在经历了上半年的大涨后，后续行情仍有望延续，包括汽车、耐用消费品/服装、多元金融(资管公司、投行、经纪公司)、能源和材料等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160521292,"gmtCreate":1623802449316,"gmtModify":1703819736489,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160521292","repostId":"2143750481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}