Soonsoon personal page - To The Moon

Soonsoon

Soonsoon

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2022-09-20

[微笑]

@杨德龙说财经:楊德龍：現在是佈局四季度行情的最佳時間窗口

2022-09-17

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-13

[微笑]

@澳洲马丁广场:查爾斯國王不必爲女王價值超過7.5億美元的私人財產支付遺產稅--由於一項規則允許資產從一個主權國家傳給另一個主權國家澳大利亞宣佈9月22日爲紀念英國女王伊麗莎白二世逝世的公共假期

2021-07-29

?

Zoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital

2021-07-06

Omg

JD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%

2021-07-03

Good

Non-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?

2021-06-26

Great

A number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192

2021-06-22

Great

Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter

2021-06-19

?

Last Night This Morning: The Fed's Big Dove Turns Hawk! European and American stocks fell sharply

2021-06-17

like and comment mine post

Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable

2021-06-12

Wow

Tiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day

2021-06-07

Nice

There are many "broken defense" rooms, and what other capital stories are good?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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21:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Zoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125795700","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月29日，Zoom涨超6%，此前获克班资本上调评级，目标价428美元。\n\n克班资本预计，Zoom将从当前和未来线上和线下混合工作模式中受益，因此上调其评级至“增持”，目标价428美元。\n该行分析师S","content":"<p>July 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It rose by more than 6%, after being upgraded by Keban Capital with a target price of $428.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24c4da4dfac9844612ebc9029260679\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Keban Capital expects Zoom to benefit from current and future hybrid online and offline working models, so it upgraded its rating to \"overweight\" with a price target of $428.</p><p>Steve Enders, an analyst at the bank, said that video and cloud communications will be a long-term priority for enterprise IT departments to achieve hybrid working models. In addition, the upgrade is supported by surveys of the company's CIO and value-added resellers, as well as optimistic expectations for the company's acquisition of Five9. According to the data, Zoom previously spent $14.7 billion to acquire Five9, a cloud-based software company, to improve its attractiveness to business customers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 21:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It rose by more than 6%, after being upgraded by Keban Capital with a target price of $428.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24c4da4dfac9844612ebc9029260679\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Keban Capital expects Zoom to benefit from current and future hybrid online and offline working models, so it upgraded its rating to \"overweight\" with a price target of $428.</p><p>Steve Enders, an analyst at the bank, said that video and cloud communications will be a long-term priority for enterprise IT departments to achieve hybrid working models. In addition, the upgrade is supported by surveys of the company's CIO and value-added resellers, as well as optimistic expectations for the company's acquisition of Five9. According to the data, Zoom previously spent $14.7 billion to acquire Five9, a cloud-based software company, to improve its attractiveness to business customers.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125795700","content_text":"7月29日，Zoom涨超6%，此前获克班资本上调评级，目标价428美元。\n\n克班资本预计，Zoom将从当前和未来线上和线下混合工作模式中受益，因此上调其评级至“增持”，目标价428美元。\n该行分析师Steve Enders表示，视频和云通信将是企业IT部门为实现混合工作模式所长期优先考虑的。此外，通过对该公司首席信息官和增值经销商的调查、以及对该公司收购Five9的乐观预期，都支持了此次评级上调。资料显示，Zoom此前斥资147亿美元收购基于云计算的软件公司Five9，以提高其对商业客户的吸引力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154705347,"gmtCreate":1625543324989,"gmtModify":1703743388085,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154705347","repostId":"1160188319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160188319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625542742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160188319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 11:39","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"JD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160188319","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日，京东物流盘中跳水，现跌超7%，报37.6港元。","content":"<p>On July 6,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Intraday diving, now down more than 7% to HK$ 37.6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a135aa9846012412cf91022cb1ffcfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 11:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 6,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Intraday diving, now down more than 7% to HK$ 37.6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a135aa9846012412cf91022cb1ffcfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160188319","content_text":"7月6日，京东物流盘中跳水，现跌超7%，报37.6港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9,"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152529677,"gmtCreate":1625315405699,"gmtModify":1703740344446,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152529677","repostId":"2148167804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148167804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625284923,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148167804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Non-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148167804","media":"智通财经网","summary":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站","content":"<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 850,000 in June, higher than expected by 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force led to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Recently, the price of crude oil has stood at $75/barrel, and the oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down in the short term, and the inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the official start of discussion of Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official start of implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, and the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before Taper's formal discussion, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper's formal discussion, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-farm payrolls is higher than market expectations.</b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Despite better-than-expected non-farm data in June, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal as the number of unemployed people remains high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor participation rate is low.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continued to pick up, while the construction industry continued to drag down employment growth.</b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service sectors such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new jobs in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of school classes are worth looking forward to. This view is also the view of many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.</p><p><b>Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and inflation in the United States may remain high in stages.</b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down. At present, inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items. When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</p><p><b>The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.</b>As far as Taper is concerned during the year, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the normal level, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper will occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. As far as the rate hike is concerned since then, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the interest rate meeting in June, the hawkish voice of Fed officials has also increased obviously, and the market's expectation for an early rate hike has also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not excluded that the Fed will have an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields trend during the year: before Taper formally discusses, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper formally discusses, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope. It is expected that after the start of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p>text</p><p>According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, with an expected increase of 720,000. The previous value was revised from 559,000 to 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, the expected increase was 3.6%, and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and non-agricultural products are higher than market expectations</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.</b>In June, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-farm data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. In April, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and in May, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year. However, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits, which were lower than market expectations. In June, the number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly, which was higher than market expectations.</p><p><b>We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation.</b>First of all, due to the lack of labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply and the number of job vacancies is high. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they have stopped paying unemployment benefits, causing people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to need to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on starting work and social activities caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start working. Third, because the labor market is in short supply, enterprises generally raise their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% per annum, and the previous value increased by 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Although the non-farm data in June was better than expected, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal.</b>First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million people less than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Secondly, in June, the unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People' s willingness to seek jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that they are satisfied with and matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor participation rate in June was equal to that in May at only 61.6%, which is still at a historically low level, and the situation of short supply in the job market still exists in the short term. As a result, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about contracting the virus and the need to care for children and the elderly still constrain labour supply. However, as time goes on, vaccination rates continue to rise, schools open, and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growth</b></p><p><b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities.</b>Specifically, the number of employed people in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural employees in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; The number of employees in education and health services remained unchanged from the previous month at 59,000; New employment in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 quarter-on-quarter. In June, the number of employees in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Employment in financial services fell by about 0.1 thousand in June, making it the sector with the second largest decline in non-farm payrolls in June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to.</b>From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, travel restrictions continue to be relaxed in some areas, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which has continued to boost employment in the leisure and hospitality industries. In addition, the continued resumption of offline teaching in some areas, coupled with the increase of outpatient and health services, has led to a recovery of employment in both education and health services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with 414,000 fewer employees in the local government education sector, 168,000 fewer employees in the state government education sector and 255,000 fewer employees in the private education sector since February 2020, showing greater room for recovery in education sector employment in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor forces caring for children at home will increase, which will become an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Fed officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Renew as Oil Prices Surge</b></p><p><b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.</b>Since March, with the continuous economic recovery, the demand for crude oil is strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and the price of crude oil has soared all the way. Both WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices have risen from around $60/barrel in late March to more than $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month until December 2021. It was lower than the market expectation, and then put on hold due to the opposition of the UAE. WTI and Brent oil prices both stood at 75 USD/barrel, of which WTI oil price was the new high since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down.</b>On June 30th, the latest data of EIA showed that as of June 25th, the crude oil inventory decreased by 6.718 million barrels in that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels, which was a six-week consecutive decline. The continuous decline of crude oil inventory reflected the current large gap between crude oil supply and demand. Judging from this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still some differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help alleviate the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline president Ibrahim Raisi, the future Iranian nuclear negotiations will have big variables.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.</b>After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in the United States in May once again exceeded market expectations, and its main pull came from the transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the unseasonally adjusted CPI of the United States recorded 5% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the year-on-year reading of inflation in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect to CPI in May were transportation and energy. In May, the transportation sub-item of CPI in the United States grew by 20% year-on-year, and the energy sub-item grew by 28.5% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the increase of people's travel demand under the epidemic recovery. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target, and core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</b>Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the downward trend of market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18th and 21st, with the continuous rise of oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI detail; Secondly, the year-on-year trend of energy items in CPI sub-items is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and oil price-driven inflation, inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items will remain at a high level, and the price of used cars will remain high in the short term, which will also support the inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?</b></p><p><b>In terms of Taper during the year, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the level of normal times, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to be advanced.</b>Although the current inflation is at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, inflation is not the focus of the Fed for Taper during the year. At present, the Fed's focus is still on the job market. At present, the recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to the normal level. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find employment gradually increased. At the same time, with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care decreased. It is expected that the job market will accelerate its repair in July and August, which may trigger the Fed's discussion on Taper. Therefore, the non-farm report in June lets us keep our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the timing of official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the timing of announcing Taper and official implementation of Taper will happen at the end of this year and the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>As far as the rate hike after that, inflation will be the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, then it is not ruled out that the Fed will make an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</b>On the one hand, the June Fed dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and 13 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, there are three more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and six more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether rate hike is or not, it still reflects the change in attitude of Fed officials towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voice of Fed officials also increased obviously. The most representative one is that Bullard, president of St. Louis Fed, who is famous for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even seven policymakers, including himself, expected the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which was a natural reaction to inflation rising faster than expected. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller and Richmond Fed President Barkin all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the latest forecast of inflation by the Federal Reserve and the marginal change of Powell's expression of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, it is not excluded that the Federal Reserve will take action in advance to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of U.S. debt during the year?</b></p><p><b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin.</b>According to our previous report \"Bond Market Qiming Series 20210622-Why is US Treasury yields Diving?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend of US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, it was driven by excess liquidity and the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan. After the interest rate meeting, it was driven by the downward trend of interest rates caused by the downward trend of inflation expectations caused by excess liquidity. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to oscillate between 1.4%-1.6%.</p><p><b>According to the experience of the last round of Taper, it is expected that the US Treasury yields will rise slightly or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0% after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper.</b>On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony before Congress. During the question-and-answer session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, then we will reduce the size of purchases in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and there was the so-called \"taper tantrum\". After the sudden Taper signal appeared, the yield of U.S. bonds soared rapidly. From May 1, 2013, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the interest rate meeting in September, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month to a high point of 2.98%, with an upward trend of over 130bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope.</b>Powell said at the press conference after the interest rate meeting in June that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Kaplan, president of Ladas Fed, also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother, because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating the \"tapering panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Fed officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will go up, but it will not reach the range of 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 850,000 in June, higher than expected by 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force led to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Recently, the price of crude oil has stood at $75/barrel, and the oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down in the short term, and the inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the official start of discussion of Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official start of implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, and the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before Taper's formal discussion, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper's formal discussion, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-farm payrolls is higher than market expectations.</b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Despite better-than-expected non-farm data in June, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal as the number of unemployed people remains high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor participation rate is low.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continued to pick up, while the construction industry continued to drag down employment growth.</b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service sectors such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new jobs in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of school classes are worth looking forward to. This view is also the view of many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.</p><p><b>Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and inflation in the United States may remain high in stages.</b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down. At present, inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items. When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</p><p><b>The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.</b>As far as Taper is concerned during the year, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the normal level, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper will occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. As far as the rate hike is concerned since then, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the interest rate meeting in June, the hawkish voice of Fed officials has also increased obviously, and the market's expectation for an early rate hike has also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not excluded that the Fed will have an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields trend during the year: before Taper formally discusses, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper formally discusses, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope. It is expected that after the start of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p>text</p><p>According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, with an expected increase of 720,000. The previous value was revised from 559,000 to 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, the expected increase was 3.6%, and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and non-agricultural products are higher than market expectations</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.</b>In June, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-farm data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. In April, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and in May, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year. However, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits, which were lower than market expectations. In June, the number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly, which was higher than market expectations.</p><p><b>We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation.</b>First of all, due to the lack of labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply and the number of job vacancies is high. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they have stopped paying unemployment benefits, causing people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to need to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on starting work and social activities caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start working. Third, because the labor market is in short supply, enterprises generally raise their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% per annum, and the previous value increased by 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Although the non-farm data in June was better than expected, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal.</b>First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million people less than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Secondly, in June, the unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People' s willingness to seek jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that they are satisfied with and matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor participation rate in June was equal to that in May at only 61.6%, which is still at a historically low level, and the situation of short supply in the job market still exists in the short term. As a result, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about contracting the virus and the need to care for children and the elderly still constrain labour supply. However, as time goes on, vaccination rates continue to rise, schools open, and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growth</b></p><p><b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities.</b>Specifically, the number of employed people in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural employees in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; The number of employees in education and health services remained unchanged from the previous month at 59,000; New employment in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 quarter-on-quarter. In June, the number of employees in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Employment in financial services fell by about 0.1 thousand in June, making it the sector with the second largest decline in non-farm payrolls in June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to.</b>From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, travel restrictions continue to be relaxed in some areas, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which has continued to boost employment in the leisure and hospitality industries. In addition, the continued resumption of offline teaching in some areas, coupled with the increase of outpatient and health services, has led to a recovery of employment in both education and health services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with 414,000 fewer employees in the local government education sector, 168,000 fewer employees in the state government education sector and 255,000 fewer employees in the private education sector since February 2020, showing greater room for recovery in education sector employment in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor forces caring for children at home will increase, which will become an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Fed officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Renew as Oil Prices Surge</b></p><p><b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.</b>Since March, with the continuous economic recovery, the demand for crude oil is strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and the price of crude oil has soared all the way. Both WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices have risen from around $60/barrel in late March to more than $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month until December 2021. It was lower than the market expectation, and then put on hold due to the opposition of the UAE. WTI and Brent oil prices both stood at 75 USD/barrel, of which WTI oil price was the new high since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down.</b>On June 30th, the latest data of EIA showed that as of June 25th, the crude oil inventory decreased by 6.718 million barrels in that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels, which was a six-week consecutive decline. The continuous decline of crude oil inventory reflected the current large gap between crude oil supply and demand. Judging from this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still some differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help alleviate the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline president Ibrahim Raisi, the future Iranian nuclear negotiations will have big variables.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.</b>After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in the United States in May once again exceeded market expectations, and its main pull came from the transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the unseasonally adjusted CPI of the United States recorded 5% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the year-on-year reading of inflation in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect to CPI in May were transportation and energy. In May, the transportation sub-item of CPI in the United States grew by 20% year-on-year, and the energy sub-item grew by 28.5% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the increase of people's travel demand under the epidemic recovery. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target, and core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</b>Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the downward trend of market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18th and 21st, with the continuous rise of oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI detail; Secondly, the year-on-year trend of energy items in CPI sub-items is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and oil price-driven inflation, inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items will remain at a high level, and the price of used cars will remain high in the short term, which will also support the inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?</b></p><p><b>In terms of Taper during the year, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the level of normal times, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to be advanced.</b>Although the current inflation is at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, inflation is not the focus of the Fed for Taper during the year. At present, the Fed's focus is still on the job market. At present, the recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to the normal level. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find employment gradually increased. At the same time, with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care decreased. It is expected that the job market will accelerate its repair in July and August, which may trigger the Fed's discussion on Taper. Therefore, the non-farm report in June lets us keep our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the timing of official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the timing of announcing Taper and official implementation of Taper will happen at the end of this year and the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>As far as the rate hike after that, inflation will be the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, then it is not ruled out that the Fed will make an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</b>On the one hand, the June Fed dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and 13 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, there are three more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and six more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether rate hike is or not, it still reflects the change in attitude of Fed officials towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voice of Fed officials also increased obviously. The most representative one is that Bullard, president of St. Louis Fed, who is famous for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even seven policymakers, including himself, expected the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which was a natural reaction to inflation rising faster than expected. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller and Richmond Fed President Barkin all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the latest forecast of inflation by the Federal Reserve and the marginal change of Powell's expression of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, it is not excluded that the Federal Reserve will take action in advance to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of U.S. debt during the year?</b></p><p><b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin.</b>According to our previous report \"Bond Market Qiming Series 20210622-Why is US Treasury yields Diving?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend of US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, it was driven by excess liquidity and the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan. After the interest rate meeting, it was driven by the downward trend of interest rates caused by the downward trend of inflation expectations caused by excess liquidity. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to oscillate between 1.4%-1.6%.</p><p><b>According to the experience of the last round of Taper, it is expected that the US Treasury yields will rise slightly or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0% after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper.</b>On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony before Congress. During the question-and-answer session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, then we will reduce the size of purchases in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and there was the so-called \"taper tantrum\". After the sudden Taper signal appeared, the yield of U.S. bonds soared rapidly. From May 1, 2013, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the interest rate meeting in September, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month to a high point of 2.98%, with an upward trend of over 130bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope.</b>Powell said at the press conference after the interest rate meeting in June that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Kaplan, president of Ladas Fed, also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother, because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating the \"tapering panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Fed officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will go up, but it will not reach the range of 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2148167804","content_text":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站上75美元/桶，油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。在美联储收紧的节奏上，预计Taper进程或不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初，加息进程或将提前至2022年底。美债利率年内走势上，Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农就业人数高于市场预期。从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但由于失业人数仍然较多、失业率上升以及劳动参与率处于低位，就业市场距离恢复到正常还有较远距离。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累就业增长。分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。美国当前通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。\n美联储收紧节奏：预计Taper进程或不会提前，加息进程或将提前。就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，在6月议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，市场对于提前加息的预期也有所增加，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息的可能。\n美债利率年内走势：Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。预计在Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。\n正文\n美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增85万人，预期增72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人;6月失业率为5.9%，预期为5.7%，前值为5.8%;6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，预期增3.6%，前值增2%;6月劳动参与率为61.6%，前值为61.6%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农高于市场预期\n从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。6月美国非农新增就业人数高于前值，同时今年4月和5月的非农数据分别经历了下修和上修，4月非农新增就业人数从27.8万人下修至26.9万人，5月非农新增就业人数从55.9万人上修至58.3万人。从非农新增就业人数走势来看，随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，今年1月-3月，非农新增就业人数逐月增加，但是4月和5月非农新增就业人数受到失业救济金发放等影响，均低于市场预期，6月非农新增就业人数增长强劲，高于市场预期。\n我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。首先，由于此前失业救济金的发放导致劳动力供给不足，就业市场供不应求，职位空缺数较多。6月以来，美国大部分州宣布停止失业救济金的发放，导致因领取失业救济金而不工作的民众需要重新找到工作。其次，疫苗接种率不断增加使得因疫情造成的开工和社交限制逐渐被解除，增加民众开始工作的意愿。再次，由于劳动力市场供不应求，企业普遍提升工资水平，6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，前值增2%，这也进一步吸引人们重回劳动力市场。\n\n尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但就业市场距离恢复正常还有较远距离。首先，从就业人数上看，当前较2020年2月疫情以前的就业人数水平仍少近680万人。其次，6月失业率较此前有所上升，从5.6%上升至5.9%，我们认为这可能是暂时的摩擦性失业，民众求职意愿提升，寻找工作的人开始增加，但是找到自己满意同时技能匹配的工作仍需一段时间，因此失业率在6月有所上升。再次，6月的劳动参与率与5月相等仅为61.6%，仍然处于历史低位，就业市场供不应求的状况短期仍然存在。因此，当前就业市场还远未复苏到正常水平，对于感染病毒的担忧、照顾子女和老人的需求仍然制约着劳动力供给。不过，随着时间推移，疫苗接种率继续提升、学校开学、越来越多的州停发失业救济金，劳动力市场或将会得到进一步修复。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累增长\n分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。具体来看，6月休闲和酒店业就业人数为34.3万人，相较5月环比增加3.7万人，仍然为6月非农新增人数第一的行业。6月政府部门新增就业人数为18.8万人，环比增加约12.1万人;教育和保健服务就业人数环比不变，保持为5.9万人;专业和商业服务新增就业人数环比增加约3.6万人。6月建筑业就业人数减少约0.7万人，为6月非农就业人数减少最多的行业;6月金融服务就业人数减少约0.1万人，为6月非农就业人数减少第二多的行业。\n\n中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待。从行业数据上来看，随着更多人完成疫苗接种，部分地区继续放宽出行限制，更多人恢复旅游和外出就餐活动，对休闲和酒店业的就业产生持续的提振。此外，一些地区继续恢复线下教学，叠加门诊与保健服务的增加，导致教育和保健服务业就业人数均有所恢复。尽管如此，教育就业仍然处于低位，自2020年2月以来，地方政府教育部门的就业人数减少了41.4万人，州政府教育部门的就业人数减少了16.8万人，私立教育部门的就业人数减少了25.5万人，显示教育部门就业在接下来经济生活正常化中的更大恢复空间。不仅如此，随着教育部门就业和线下课程的恢复，大量居家看护儿童的以女性为主的劳动力将会增加，成为中期非农就业新增的一大重要潜力，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价飙升，通胀预期再起\n今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。3月开始，随着经济持续复苏，原油需求强劲，尽管OPEC+不断增产，但是原油供需缺口仍存，原油价格一路飙升，WTI原油和布油价格均从3月下旬的60美元/桶附近一路走上70美元/桶以上。本周四，OPEC+早先初步达成协议，2021年12月前平均每月增产40万桶/日。低于市场预期，后又因阿联酋反对而搁置，WTI和布油价格双双站上75美元/桶，其中WTI油价为2018年10月以来的新高。\n\n今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。6月30日，EIA最新数据显示，截至6月25日，当周原油库存减少671.8万桶，降幅高于预期的385万桶，为连续6周下降，连续下降的原油库存反映当前原油供需缺口较大。从本周OPEC+会议情况来看，OPEC+内部对于是否增产仍然存在一定分歧，同时，即便OPEC+对于增产达成协议，每月增加的原油产量也未必能够填补当前较大的供需缺口，因此短期来看，原油价格或将维持高位。目前最大变量或在伊核谈判，若短期内伊核谈判顺利，伊朗恢复原油供给和出口，将有助于缓解油价上行趋势;若短期内谈判不顺利，那么在新任强硬派总统易卜拉欣·莱希领导下，未来伊核谈判将有较大变数。\n\n美国通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在4月通胀数据远超市场预期后，美国5月通胀数据再次超市场预期，其主要拉动来自于交通运输和能源分项。5月美国未季调CPI同比录得5%，较前值4.2%上涨0.8pct，未季调核心CPI同比录得3.8%，较前值3%上涨0.8pct。一方面，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是5月通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因。另一方面，从CPI分项上来看，给5月份CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是交通运输和能源项，5月美国CPI交通运输分项同比增速达20%，能源分项同比增速高达28.5%，主要反映了疫情修复下人们出行需求的增加。与此同时，美联储更加关心的PCE指标也创历史新高，5月PCE同比增3.9%，远高于美联储2%的通胀目标，核心PCE同比增3.4%，为1992年以来的新高。\n\n在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。在6月美联储议息会议偏鹰派态度下，市场通胀预期下行带动美债利率不升反降，在6月18日和21日到达阶段性低点后，近期随着油价连续上行，通胀预期再次抬头。从油价和通胀的关系来看，首先，油价与美国CPI细项中能源类商品的走势基本正相关;其次，CPI分项中能源项同比与CPI总体同比走势高度吻合。因此，在通胀预期上行和油价带动通胀的共同作用下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。同时，交通运输项、住房项维持高位，二手车价格短期内居高不下，同样会对通胀水平有所支撑。\n\n美联储会提前收紧吗?\n就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前。虽然当前通胀位于高位，并将在未来一定时间内维持高位，但是对于年内的Taper而言，通胀并不是美联储关注的重点。美联储当前关注的重点仍是就业市场，当前就业市场复苏进程较为稳定，但远未恢复到正常时期水平。在6月大部分州停发失业救济金后，居民就业意愿逐渐提升，同时叠加9月学校复学，看护小孩需求降低，预计就业市场或将在7、8月加速修复，届时或将触发美联储对于Taper的讨论。因此，6月的非农报告让我们保持此前的判断，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。\n就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息。一方面，6月美联储点阵图显示所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位官员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息，相比3月点阵图，预计2022年加息的官员增加3人，预计2023年加息的官员增加6人。尽管点阵图和是否加息并无直接联系，但是依然反映出美联储官员对于加息态度的变化。另一方面，在议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，最具代表性的是以鸽派著称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德突然转鹰，他表示，连他本人在内的7位政策制定者均预计美联储将采取激进的措施来遏制通胀，这是对通胀上升快于预期的自然反应。此外，达拉斯联储主席卡普兰、美联储理事沃勒、里士满联储主席巴尔金近期均发表鹰派言论。根据美联储对于通胀的最新预测以及鲍威尔对于通胀表述的边际变化，如果通胀以及通胀预期持续走高，那么不排除美联储将提前采取行动遏制通胀(即在2022年底前加息)的可能。\n\n年内美债走势如何?\n随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。根据我们此前的报告《债市启明系列20210622—美债利率为何跳水?》(2021-06-22)，近期美债利率的下行分为两个阶段，美联储6月议息会议之前是流动性过剩和拜登基建计划受阻推动的下行，议息会议之后是流动性过剩下通胀预期下行引发的利率下行。短期而言，预计美债利率将在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。\n而根据上一轮Taper经验，在本轮Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，预计美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。2013年5月22日，时任美联储主席伯南克在国会发表证词，在提问环节，伯南克表示，如果就业市场持续改善，并且我们对改善势头的持续有信心，那么将在未来几次会议上减少购买规模。在伯南克的讲话和议息会议纪要共同冲击下，市场反应剧烈，出现了所谓的“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)”。在突如其来的Taper信号出现后，美债收益率快速大幅飙升，从2013年5月1日起，10年期美债收益率开始迅速飙升，到9月议息会议前夕已由月初的1.66%升至高点2.98%，上行超130bps。\n\n就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。鲍威尔在6月议息会议后的发布会上表示，会尽所能避免市场出现过度反应，在做出任何决定之前会提前告知市场。同时，拉达斯联储主席卡普兰也在近日表示，美联储将逐步减少资产购买，但这次将更加顺利，因为投资者已经知道该措施正被商议中，美联储这次将避免制造2013年的“缩减恐慌”。因此，我们认为在美联储正式释放Taper讨论信号后，美债利率将会有所上行，但是不会出现2013年高达130bps的幅度，或将达到1.8%-2.0%的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SImain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125114314,"gmtCreate":1624663943938,"gmtModify":1703842939081,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125114314","repostId":"2146105079","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146105079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624661887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146105079?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 06:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146105079","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，近日，耐克公布了2021财年第四财季及全年财报。财报公布后，多家投行上调了对该公司的目标价。该分析师目前认为，耐克股价未来三年的上涨潜力或将达到250美元以上。RBC Capital分析师Beth Reed将耐克目标价由165美元上调至183美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。Murphy表示，其提高了对耐克的业绩预期，并称该公司第四季度的业绩“是多种战略杠杆共同作用的结果”。Kummetz表示，该公司第四季度业绩远超预期。","content":"<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Announced the fourth fiscal quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter increased by 96% year-on-year to US $12.3 billion, compared with market expectations of US $11.01 billion and US $6.313 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $1.509 billion, compared with expectations of US $819 million, compared with a loss of US $790 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $0.93, market expectations for earnings per share of US $0.51, and losses per share of US $0.51 in the same period last year, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>After the financial report was announced, a number of investment banks raised their target prices for the company.</p><p><b>Baird analyst Jonathan Komp raised Nike's target price from $150 to $192, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst noted that Nike's fourth-quarter results almost doubled, reflecting the company's strong momentum in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and better-than-expected performance in Greater China. The analyst currently believes that the upside potential of Nike's stock price in the next three years may reach more than $250.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analyst Paul Trussell raised Nike's target price from $161 to $179 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Trussell pointed out that Nike released a \"strong\" fourth-quarter performance report, which showed that the company's revenue growth and profitability in China and North America were better than expected, indicating that the overall market is developing healthily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jay Sole raised Nike's target price from $170 to $185 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>The analyst said in the report that Nike's fourth-quarter profit performance was outstanding and the company's guidance for fiscal 2022 was \"well above market expectations,\" highlighting the company's ability to achieve substantial earnings growth despite the challenges facing in the Chinese market. The benefits of Nike's transformation into a digital, direct-to-consumer (DTC) company are \"just beginning to show,\" Sole adds.</p><p><b>RBC Capital analyst Beth Reed raised Nike's target price from $165 to $183, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst said Nike reported \"strong\" fourth-quarter results and raised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast from high single digits to low double digits, driven by digital markets, women's apparel products, apparel business, Jordan brand, and international sales. Notably, Nike has also increased its sales target for DTC to 60% from the current 40%, Reed added.</p><p><b>Piper Sandler analyst Erin Murphy raised Nike's target price from $170 to $174 and maintained an \"overweight\" rating.</b>Murphy said it raised its performance expectations for Nike and called the company's fourth-quarter results \"the result of a combination of multiple strategic levers.\"</p><p><b>BMO Capital analyst Simeon Siegel raised Nike's target price from $160 to $174, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst pointed out that Nike's performance almost all exceeded expectations, and the company's overall profit margin has also improved significantly as its EBIT profit margin has reached its highest level in \"years\". Siegel believes the company's size provides it with a long-term competitive advantage.</p><p><b>Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz raised Nike's target price from $167 to $175 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Kummetz said the company's fourth-quarter results far beat expectations. On the basis of the past two years, the company's sales increased by 21%, including a 29% increase in North America. He said Nike's results \"show its tremendous momentum,\" while its guidance for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2025 \"shows its tremendous confidence.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 06:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Announced the fourth fiscal quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter increased by 96% year-on-year to US $12.3 billion, compared with market expectations of US $11.01 billion and US $6.313 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $1.509 billion, compared with expectations of US $819 million, compared with a loss of US $790 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $0.93, market expectations for earnings per share of US $0.51, and losses per share of US $0.51 in the same period last year, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>After the financial report was announced, a number of investment banks raised their target prices for the company.</p><p><b>Baird analyst Jonathan Komp raised Nike's target price from $150 to $192, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst noted that Nike's fourth-quarter results almost doubled, reflecting the company's strong momentum in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and better-than-expected performance in Greater China. The analyst currently believes that the upside potential of Nike's stock price in the next three years may reach more than $250.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analyst Paul Trussell raised Nike's target price from $161 to $179 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Trussell pointed out that Nike released a \"strong\" fourth-quarter performance report, which showed that the company's revenue growth and profitability in China and North America were better than expected, indicating that the overall market is developing healthily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jay Sole raised Nike's target price from $170 to $185 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>The analyst said in the report that Nike's fourth-quarter profit performance was outstanding and the company's guidance for fiscal 2022 was \"well above market expectations,\" highlighting the company's ability to achieve substantial earnings growth despite the challenges facing in the Chinese market. The benefits of Nike's transformation into a digital, direct-to-consumer (DTC) company are \"just beginning to show,\" Sole adds.</p><p><b>RBC Capital analyst Beth Reed raised Nike's target price from $165 to $183, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst said Nike reported \"strong\" fourth-quarter results and raised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast from high single digits to low double digits, driven by digital markets, women's apparel products, apparel business, Jordan brand, and international sales. Notably, Nike has also increased its sales target for DTC to 60% from the current 40%, Reed added.</p><p><b>Piper Sandler analyst Erin Murphy raised Nike's target price from $170 to $174 and maintained an \"overweight\" rating.</b>Murphy said it raised its performance expectations for Nike and called the company's fourth-quarter results \"the result of a combination of multiple strategic levers.\"</p><p><b>BMO Capital analyst Simeon Siegel raised Nike's target price from $160 to $174, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst pointed out that Nike's performance almost all exceeded expectations, and the company's overall profit margin has also improved significantly as its EBIT profit margin has reached its highest level in \"years\". Siegel believes the company's size provides it with a long-term competitive advantage.</p><p><b>Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz raised Nike's target price from $167 to $175 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Kummetz said the company's fourth-quarter results far beat expectations. On the basis of the past two years, the company's sales increased by 21%, including a 29% increase in North America. He said Nike's results \"show its tremendous momentum,\" while its guidance for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2025 \"shows its tremendous confidence.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501577.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e7d64fe74200def49d40052d7e96014","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501577.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146105079","content_text":"近日，耐克公布了2021财年第四财季及全年财报。财报显示，公司四财季营收同比增长96%至123亿美元，市场预期110.1亿美元，去年同期63.13亿美元；净利润为15.09亿美元，预期为8.19亿美元，去年同期为亏损7.9亿美元；每股盈利0.93美元，市场预期每股盈利0.51美元，去年同期每股亏损0.51美元，均超出市场预期。\n财报公布后，多家投行上调了对该公司的目标价。\nBaird分析师Jonathan Komp将耐克目标价由150美元上调至192美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师指出，耐克第四季度业绩几乎翻了一番，这反映出了该公司在北美、欧洲、中东和非洲地区的强劲势头，以及在大中华地区优于预期的表现。该分析师目前认为，耐克股价未来三年的上涨潜力或将达到250美元以上。\n德意志银行分析师Paul Trussell将耐克目标价由161美元上调至179美元，维持“买入”评级。Trussell指出，耐克发布了一份“强劲”的第四季度业绩报告，报告显示该公司在中国和北美市场的营收增长和盈利能力均优于预期，这表明整体市场正健康发展。\n瑞银分析师Jay Sole将耐克目标价由170美元上调至185美元，维持“买入”评级。该分析师在报告表示，耐克第四季度利润表现出色，并且该公司对2022财年的业绩指引“远高于市场预期”，这突显出了该公司尽管在中国市场面临挑战，但其仍有能力实现大幅盈利增长。Sole补充道，耐克转型为一家数字化、直接面向消费者(DTC)的公司所带来的好处“才刚刚开始显现”。\nRBC Capital分析师Beth Reed将耐克目标价由165美元上调至183美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师表示，耐克公布了“强劲”的第四季度业绩，并在数字市场、女装产品、服装业务、乔丹品牌以及国际销售的推动下，将其2025财年的营收增长预期从高单位数上调至低双位数。Reed补充道，值得注意的是，耐克还将DTC的销售目标从目前的40%提高到60%。\nPiper Sandler分析师Erin Murphy将耐克目标价由170美元上调至174美元，维持“增持”评级。Murphy表示，其提高了对耐克的业绩预期，并称该公司第四季度的业绩“是多种战略杠杆共同作用的结果”。\nBMO Capital分析师Simeon Siegel将耐克目标价由160美元上调至174美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师指出，耐克业绩表现几乎全部超出预期，并且，由于其EBIT利润率达到了“多年来”的最高水平，公司整体利润率也得到了显著提升。Siegel认为，该公司的规模为其提供了长期竞争优势。\nPivotal Research分析师Mitch Kummetz将耐克目标价由167美元上调至175美元，维持“买入”评级。Kummetz表示，该公司第四季度业绩远超预期。在过去两年的基础上，该公司的销售额增长了21%，其中北美地区的销售额增长了29%。他表示，耐克的业绩“显示出其巨大的势头”，而2022财年和2025财年的业绩指引“显示出了其极大的信心”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120125424,"gmtCreate":1624316353468,"gmtModify":1703833070498,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120125424","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162224595,"gmtCreate":1624065517017,"gmtModify":1703827946936,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162224595","repostId":"1145549454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145549454","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624062837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145549454?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 08:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night This Morning: The Fed's Big Dove Turns Hawk! European and American stocks fell sharply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145549454","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：道指本周累跌3.45%，创2020年10月以来最大周跌幅；欧洲三大股指全线收跌，$英国富时100$指数跌近2%；国际金价收跌，报于1770美元关口之下；美联储官员再发鹰派讲话，布拉德称最早明年加息；$爱回收$正式登陆纽交所，IPO首日收盘大涨近23%等。美东时间周五，美股全线下跌，道指连续五个交易日下滑，创2020年10月以来的最大周跌幅。卡什卡利的言论表明，在日益鹰派的美联储中，他属于明显的少数派。","content":"<p>Abstract: The Dow fell 3.45% this week, the biggest weekly decline since October 2020; The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>Index fell nearly 2%; The international gold price closed lower, reported below the $1,770 mark; Federal Reserve officials made another hawkish speech, and Bullard said rate hike as early as next year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love recycling</a>Officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, and the IPO closed by nearly 23% on the first day. Overseas markets</p><p>The Dow fell 3.45% this week, its biggest weekly loss since October 2020</p><p>U.S. stocks fell across the board on Friday Eastern Time, with the Dow falling for five consecutive trading days, the biggest weekly decline since October 2020. As of the close, the Dow fell 533.37 points, or 1.58%, to 33,290.08 points; The Nasdaq fell 130.97 points, or 0.92%, to 14,030.38 points; The S&P 500 fell 55.41 points, or 1.31 percent, to 4,166.45. On the disk, bank stocks and energy stocks fell, most large technology stocks in U.S. stocks closed lower, and Chinese education stocks rebounded.</p><p>All three major European indexes closed lower UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>Down nearly 2%</p><p>On Friday, European time, the three major European stock indexes closed down across the board,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell nearly 2%. As of the close, the average price index of 100 stocks of the Financial Times in London stock market closed at 7017.47 points on the 18th, down 135.96 points or 1.90% from the previous trading day. The CAC40 index of Paris stock market closed at 6569.16 points on the 18th, down 97.10 points or 1.46% from the previous trading day. The DAX index of Frankfurt stock market in Germany fell 279.63 points, or 1.78%, to close at 15,448.04 points on the 18th.</p><p>International gold prices closed lower below the $1,770 mark</p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, the international gold price closed lower, below the $1,770 mark. As of the close, the most actively traded August gold futures price in the gold futures market of New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $5.8 on the 18th compared with the previous trading day, closing at $1,769 per ounce, a decrease of 0.33%.</p><p>International oil prices rose slightly Brent oil closed up 0.59%</p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, international oil prices rose slightly, and Brent oil closed up 0.59%. By the close, New York July crude oil futures closed up $0.60, or 0.84%, at $71.64/barrel; Brent August crude oil futures closed up $0.43, or 0.59%, at $73.51/barrel.</p><p>International macro</p><p>Kashkari: Hope to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of 2023 'dot plot' has tasted and should be scrapped</p><p>On Friday (June 18), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wants to keep the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate near zero until at least the end of 2023 to return the labor market to pre-COVID levels. \"It was meant to be a tool for providing forward-looking guidance to doves,\" Kashkari said of the \"dot plot.\"\"It ended up being a tool for providing forward-looking guidance to hawks…I still think we should do away with the\" dot plot. \"Kashkali's remarks suggest he belongs to a clear minority in an increasingly hawkish Fed.</p><p>The new \"Eagle King\"? Fed's Bullard Expects Rate Hike As Early as 2022</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC on Friday that he expects to raise interest rates for the first time in late 2022 as inflation rises faster than previously expected. The outlook forecast released by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday has hit financial markets. The committee has a median expectation of up to two rate hikes in 2023, having previously hinted in March that there would be no rate hike. Bullard has on several occasions described the Fed's moves this week as \"hawkish,\" a preference for tighter monetary policy than has generally been adopted since the Covid pandemic.</p><p>This central bank may have a rate hike in early 2023 and three rate hike during the year</p><p>The Fed is not the leader when it comes to withdrawal easing, and the rest of the world's central banks are not just staying put. The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are also turning to a hard line, followed by the Bank of England. According to the latest forecast of investment banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at the beginning of 2023, and raise interest rates three times in a year, with a total rate hike of 65 basis points. $ West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The Bank (WBC.AU) $Chief economist said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to start raising its key interest rate in early 2023, when key indicators set by policymakers for the economy will be met.</p><p>The Bank of England will ignore the temporary rise in inflation and focus on protecting economic recovery</p><p>The latest survey suggests UK inflation could rise above 3pc until it upsets the Bank of England. Analysts also said the UK economy will expand faster than previously expected this quarter as more pandemic restrictions are lifted. The Bank of England set an inflation target of 2%, but inflation surprisingly exceeded that target in May, reaching 2.1%, the first time inflation has exceeded the target in almost two years.</p><p>Company News</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144777835\" target=\"_blank\">Baker Hughes: U.S. Drilling Companies Add Oil and Gas Rigs for Second Week</a></p><p>American Oil Services Corporation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKR\">Baker Hughes</a>According to the released data, the total number of oil drilling rigs increased by 8 to 373 in the week ending June 18th, which was previously expected to increase by 3; The total number of natural gas rigs drilled during the week increased by one to 97; The total number of rigs drilled increased by nine to 470.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>U.S. drilling companies added oil and gas rigs for the second week in a row, Oilservices said.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144774757\" target=\"_blank\">Following Didi, \"Uber of China's truck industry\" is also going to IPO in the United States</a></p><p>It was learned from the official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that \"Uber in China's truck industry\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Group (FullTruckAllianceCo. Ltd.) has launched an IPO, and it is expected to issue 82.5 million ADS shares to be listed on the NYSE, and the offering price may be set at between $17 and $19. According to reports, as China's largest vehicle-cargo matching information platform,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The Group provides users with accurate and convenient information interaction platform services; At the same time, the company has also developed into the largest truck rear service platform in China, providing one-stop services for truck drivers by covering service areas such as truck oil, ETC, new vehicles, finance, insurance and parks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144777702\" target=\"_blank\">Love Recycling officially landed on the NYSE IPO closed nearly 23% on the first day</a></p><p>Aihui officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. As of the close, Aihui's share price was reported at $17.21, an increase of 22.93%, with a market value of $3.793 billion. The prospectus shows that everything<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">newly born</a>The Group's overall revenue for the past 12 months (ended March 31, 2021) was 5.680 billion yuan, up 49.4% year-on-year. In 2020, the overall revenue was 4.858 billion yuan, of which core business revenue was 4.709 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.2% over 2019.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night This Morning: The Fed's Big Dove Turns Hawk! European and American stocks fell sharply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night This Morning: The Fed's Big Dove Turns Hawk! European and American stocks fell sharply\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-19 08:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: The Dow fell 3.45% this week, the biggest weekly decline since October 2020; The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>Index fell nearly 2%; The international gold price closed lower, reported below the $1,770 mark; Federal Reserve officials made another hawkish speech, and Bullard said rate hike as early as next year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love recycling</a>Officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, and the IPO closed by nearly 23% on the first day. Overseas markets</p><p>The Dow fell 3.45% this week, its biggest weekly loss since October 2020</p><p>U.S. stocks fell across the board on Friday Eastern Time, with the Dow falling for five consecutive trading days, the biggest weekly decline since October 2020. As of the close, the Dow fell 533.37 points, or 1.58%, to 33,290.08 points; The Nasdaq fell 130.97 points, or 0.92%, to 14,030.38 points; The S&P 500 fell 55.41 points, or 1.31 percent, to 4,166.45. On the disk, bank stocks and energy stocks fell, most large technology stocks in U.S. stocks closed lower, and Chinese education stocks rebounded.</p><p>All three major European indexes closed lower UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>Down nearly 2%</p><p>On Friday, European time, the three major European stock indexes closed down across the board,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell nearly 2%. As of the close, the average price index of 100 stocks of the Financial Times in London stock market closed at 7017.47 points on the 18th, down 135.96 points or 1.90% from the previous trading day. The CAC40 index of Paris stock market closed at 6569.16 points on the 18th, down 97.10 points or 1.46% from the previous trading day. The DAX index of Frankfurt stock market in Germany fell 279.63 points, or 1.78%, to close at 15,448.04 points on the 18th.</p><p>International gold prices closed lower below the $1,770 mark</p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, the international gold price closed lower, below the $1,770 mark. As of the close, the most actively traded August gold futures price in the gold futures market of New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $5.8 on the 18th compared with the previous trading day, closing at $1,769 per ounce, a decrease of 0.33%.</p><p>International oil prices rose slightly Brent oil closed up 0.59%</p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, international oil prices rose slightly, and Brent oil closed up 0.59%. By the close, New York July crude oil futures closed up $0.60, or 0.84%, at $71.64/barrel; Brent August crude oil futures closed up $0.43, or 0.59%, at $73.51/barrel.</p><p>International macro</p><p>Kashkari: Hope to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of 2023 'dot plot' has tasted and should be scrapped</p><p>On Friday (June 18), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wants to keep the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate near zero until at least the end of 2023 to return the labor market to pre-COVID levels. \"It was meant to be a tool for providing forward-looking guidance to doves,\" Kashkari said of the \"dot plot.\"\"It ended up being a tool for providing forward-looking guidance to hawks…I still think we should do away with the\" dot plot. \"Kashkali's remarks suggest he belongs to a clear minority in an increasingly hawkish Fed.</p><p>The new \"Eagle King\"? Fed's Bullard Expects Rate Hike As Early as 2022</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC on Friday that he expects to raise interest rates for the first time in late 2022 as inflation rises faster than previously expected. The outlook forecast released by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday has hit financial markets. The committee has a median expectation of up to two rate hikes in 2023, having previously hinted in March that there would be no rate hike. Bullard has on several occasions described the Fed's moves this week as \"hawkish,\" a preference for tighter monetary policy than has generally been adopted since the Covid pandemic.</p><p>This central bank may have a rate hike in early 2023 and three rate hike during the year</p><p>The Fed is not the leader when it comes to withdrawal easing, and the rest of the world's central banks are not just staying put. The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are also turning to a hard line, followed by the Bank of England. According to the latest forecast of investment banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at the beginning of 2023, and raise interest rates three times in a year, with a total rate hike of 65 basis points. $ West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The Bank (WBC.AU) $Chief economist said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to start raising its key interest rate in early 2023, when key indicators set by policymakers for the economy will be met.</p><p>The Bank of England will ignore the temporary rise in inflation and focus on protecting economic recovery</p><p>The latest survey suggests UK inflation could rise above 3pc until it upsets the Bank of England. Analysts also said the UK economy will expand faster than previously expected this quarter as more pandemic restrictions are lifted. The Bank of England set an inflation target of 2%, but inflation surprisingly exceeded that target in May, reaching 2.1%, the first time inflation has exceeded the target in almost two years.</p><p>Company News</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144777835\" target=\"_blank\">Baker Hughes: U.S. Drilling Companies Add Oil and Gas Rigs for Second Week</a></p><p>American Oil Services Corporation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKR\">Baker Hughes</a>According to the released data, the total number of oil drilling rigs increased by 8 to 373 in the week ending June 18th, which was previously expected to increase by 3; The total number of natural gas rigs drilled during the week increased by one to 97; The total number of rigs drilled increased by nine to 470.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>U.S. drilling companies added oil and gas rigs for the second week in a row, Oilservices said.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144774757\" target=\"_blank\">Following Didi, \"Uber of China's truck industry\" is also going to IPO in the United States</a></p><p>It was learned from the official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that \"Uber in China's truck industry\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Group (FullTruckAllianceCo. Ltd.) has launched an IPO, and it is expected to issue 82.5 million ADS shares to be listed on the NYSE, and the offering price may be set at between $17 and $19. According to reports, as China's largest vehicle-cargo matching information platform,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The Group provides users with accurate and convenient information interaction platform services; At the same time, the company has also developed into the largest truck rear service platform in China, providing one-stop services for truck drivers by covering service areas such as truck oil, ETC, new vehicles, finance, insurance and parks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2144777702\" target=\"_blank\">Love Recycling officially landed on the NYSE IPO closed nearly 23% on the first day</a></p><p>Aihui officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. As of the close, Aihui's share price was reported at $17.21, an increase of 22.93%, with a market value of $3.793 billion. The prospectus shows that everything<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">newly born</a>The Group's overall revenue for the past 12 months (ended March 31, 2021) was 5.680 billion yuan, up 49.4% year-on-year. In 2020, the overall revenue was 4.858 billion yuan, of which core business revenue was 4.709 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.2% over 2019.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145549454","content_text":"摘要：道指本周累跌3.45%，创2020年10月以来最大周跌幅；欧洲三大股指全线收跌，英国富时100指数跌近2%；国际金价收跌，报于1770美元关口之下；美联储官员再发鹰派讲话，布拉德称最早明年加息；爱回收正式登陆纽交所，IPO首日收盘大涨近23%等。\n\n海外市场\n道指本周累跌3.45% 创2020年10月以来最大周跌幅\n美东时间周五，美股全线下跌，道指连续五个交易日下滑，创2020年10月以来的最大周跌幅。截止收盘，道指跌533.37点，跌幅1.58%，报33290.08点；纳指跌130.97点，跌幅0.92%，报14030.38点；标普500指数跌55.41点，跌幅1.31%，报4166.45点。盘面上，银行股、能源股走低，美股大型科技股多数收跌，中概教育股反弹。\n欧洲三大股指全线收跌 英国富时100指数跌近2%\n欧洲时间周五，欧洲三大股指全线收跌，英国富时100指数跌近2%。截止收盘，英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数18日报收于7017.47点，比前一交易日下跌135.96点，跌幅为1.90%。法国巴黎股市CAC40指数18日报收于6569.16点，较前一交易日下跌97.10点，跌幅为1.46%。德国法兰克福股市DAX指数18日下跌279.63点，跌幅为1.78%，报收于15448.04点。\n国际金价收跌 报于1770美元关口之下\n美东时间周五，国际金价收跌，报于1770美元关口之下。截止收盘，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价18日比前一交易日下跌5.8美元，收于每盎司1769美元，跌幅为0.33%。\n国际油价小幅上涨 布油收涨0.59%\n美东时间周五，国际油价小幅上涨，布油收涨0.59%。截止收盘，纽约7月原油期货收涨0.60美元，涨幅0.84%，报71.64美元/桶；布伦特8月原油期货收涨0.43美元，涨幅0.59%，报73.51美元/桶。\n国际宏观\n卡什卡利：希望至少在2023年底前维持利率不变 “点阵图”已变味应该废除\n周五(6月18日)，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)表示，他希望至少在2023年底前将美联储指标短期利率维持在接近零的水准，以使劳动力市场恢复到新冠大流行前的水平。卡什卡利谈到“点阵图”时说：“它本来是一个提供鸽派前瞻性指导的工具。”“它最终成为了一种工具，为鹰派提供了前瞻性指导……我仍然认为我们应该废除‘点阵图’。”卡什卡利的言论表明，在日益鹰派的美联储中，他属于明显的少数派。\n新的“鹰王”？美联储布拉德预计最早将在2022年加息\n圣路易斯联储(St.Louis Federal Reserve)主席布拉德(James Bullard)周五对CNBC表示，他预计将在2022年末首次升息，因通胀上升速度快于此前预期。美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)周三发布的前景预测对金融市场造成了冲击。该委员会对2023年加息的预期中值为最多两次，此前在3月曾暗示不会加息。布拉德在多个场合将美联储本周的举措描述为“鹰派”，即倾向于比新冠大流行以来普遍采取的货币政策更紧缩。\n这一央行或将在2023年初加息 且年内加息3次\n在撤出宽松方面，美联储并不是领头羊，全球其他央行并没有仅仅停留在原地。加拿大央行和新西兰联储也在转向强硬立场，英国央行也紧随其后。而据投行最新预测，澳洲联储将在2023年初升息，且一年内升息三次，共加息65个基点。$西太平洋银行(WBC.AU)$首席经济学家表示，预计澳洲联储(RBA)将于2023年初开始提高关键利率，届时决策者为经济设定的关键指标将得到满足。\n英国央行将忽略通胀暂时性上升 专心保护经济复苏\n最新调查显示，英国通胀率可能升至3%以上，直到让英国央行感到不安。分析师还表示，随着更多防疫限制措施被取消，英国经济本季度的扩张速度将高于此前预期。英国央行设定的通胀目标为2%，但今年5月通胀率出人意料地超过了这一目标，达到2.1%，这是近两年来通胀首次超越目标。\n公司新闻\n贝克休斯：美国钻井公司连续第二周增加石油和天然气钻井平台\n美国油服公司贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截至6月18日当周，石油钻井总数增加8座，至373座，此前预期增加3座；当周天然气钻井总数增加1座，至97座；总钻井数增加9座，至470座。贝克休斯油服表示，美国钻井公司连续第二周增加石油和天然气钻井平台。\n继滴滴后，“中国货车界Uber”也要赴美IPO了\n从美国证券交易委员会(SEC)官网获悉，“中国货车界Uber”满帮集团(FullTruckAllianceCo.Ltd.)已启动招股，预计发行8250万股ADS在纽交所上市，发行价或定在17美元-19美元之间。据介绍，作为中国最大的车货匹配信息平台，满帮集团为用户提供准确便捷的信息交互平台服务；同时，公司也已发展成全国最大的货车车后服务平台，通过覆盖车油、ETC、新车、金融、保险、园区等服务领域，为货车司机提供一站式服务。\n爱回收正式登陆纽交所 IPO首日收盘大涨近23%\n爱回收周五正式登陆纽交所，截至收盘，爱回股价报17.21美元，涨幅22.93%，市值37.93亿美元。招股书显示，万物新生集团过去12个月(截至2021年3月31日)的整体营收为56.80亿元，同比增长49.4%。2020年整体营收为48.58亿元，其中核心业务营收为47.09亿元，较2019年同比增长38.2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161369303,"gmtCreate":1623905500102,"gmtModify":1703823179289,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment mine post","listText":"like and comment mine post","text":"like and comment mine post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161369303","repostId":"1186688505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186688505","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623891302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186688505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186688505","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目","content":"<p>June 17 news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>An announcement was made that the company issued 715 million shares at a price of HK$ 6.98 per share and 1,000 shares per lot, which is expected to be listed on June 18th.</p><p>During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>1000 shares per board lot with an admission fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate of one hand is 80%, and the subscription of three hands is stable.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:</p><p>For financing purposes, the Company intends to apply approximately HK$3,238 million of the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% or will be allocated to pasture to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purpose.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was founded in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, and its business layout covers the whole upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the Company is the largest upstream integrated dairy products and services provider in China.</b>The Company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments, namely raw milk and systematic solutions for ruminant farming. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the total revenue of the Company from 2018 to 2020 was RMB6,334 million, RMB7,668 million and RMB11,781 million, respectively, representing a CAGR of 36.4%; Net profits of RMB653 million, RMB802 million and RMB1,541 million were recorded for the same periods, representing a CAGR of 53.6%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Youran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouran Animal Husbandry's first-hand winning rate is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>An announcement was made that the company issued 715 million shares at a price of HK$ 6.98 per share and 1,000 shares per lot, which is expected to be listed on June 18th.</p><p>During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>1000 shares per board lot with an admission fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate of one hand is 80%, and the subscription of three hands is stable.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the Public Offer, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times and the final number of Offer Shares allocated to the Public Offer was 71,544 million, representing 10% of the total number of Offer Shares (before any Over-allotment Option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a successful rate of 80%, and 3 subscriptions were successful.</p><p>In addition, the International Offering was over-subscribed and the final number of Offer Shares was 644 million (excluding the Over-allocated Shares), representing 90% of the total number of Offer Shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:</p><p>For financing purposes, the Company intends to apply approximately HK$3,238 million of the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% or will be allocated to pasture to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purpose.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was founded in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, and its business layout covers the whole upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the Company is the largest upstream integrated dairy products and services provider in China.</b>The Company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments, namely raw milk and systematic solutions for ruminant farming. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the total revenue of the Company from 2018 to 2020 was RMB6,334 million, RMB7,668 million and RMB11,781 million, respectively, representing a CAGR of 36.4%; Net profits of RMB653 million, RMB802 million and RMB1,541 million were recorded for the same periods, representing a CAGR of 53.6%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186688505","content_text":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：申购阶梯：\n每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。\n据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。\n财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09858":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188219592,"gmtCreate":1623446643016,"gmtModify":1704203810989,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188219592","repostId":"1156959915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156959915","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623429803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156959915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 00:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156959915","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月12日，BOSS直聘登陆纳斯达克，首日开涨75%。\n老虎证券作为互联网承销商，与高盛、摩根士丹利、UBS、华兴、海通等国际知名大行同列BOSS直聘招股书封面，展现出老虎证券作为头部互联网科","content":"<p>On June 12th, Beijing time, BOSS directly hired and landed on Nasdaq, which rose by 75% on the first day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57551fd25362c75885fbb928efe43f8a\"></p><p>As an Internet underwriter, Tiger Brokers is listed on the cover of BOSS direct prospectus with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Huaxing, Haitong and other internationally renowned banks, showing the influence of Tiger Brokers as the head Internet technology investment bank.<br></p><p><br></p><p>According to the latest prospectus information, BOSS Direct Recruitment will publicly issue 48 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an issue price of US$19 per share, raising about US$912 million, and the total market value was US$7.599 billion at the opening.</p><p>This valuation has exceeded the sum of Worry-Free Future, which has a public valuation of US$5 billion, and Zhaopin Recruitment, which can only be valued at US$1.7 billion in the private equity fund market due to delisting, making it the highest valued Chinese recruitment platform.</p><p>Of course, being able to reach such a high valuation shows to some extent that BOSS Direct Recruitment also has its own financial performance and has been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of BOSS Direct Recruitment can be roughly summarized as follows: strong revenue growth momentum; Gross profit growth was strong and gross margin remained stable; Although the operating profit is low, it has turned losses into profits; Cash flow from operations skyrocketed.</p><p>Specifically, BOSS Direct Recruitment's revenue in 2020 reached 298 million USD, a 95.4% increase from 152 million USD in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue reached 120 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 178.9%.</p><p>BOSS Direct Gross Profit was US$261 million in 2020, an increase of 98.7% from US$131 million in 2019, and reached US$104 million in the first quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 178.4%. Meanwhile, in 2019, 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin remained almost unchanged at 86.20%, 87.65% and 86.45%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment achieved operating profit of $392,800, $1,356,000, and $35,400,000, respectively, with operating profit margins of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. During the same period, the company's net losses were $112 million, $188 million and $40.972 million, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Hire cash flow from operations was-16.1318 million, 60.6760 million, and 25.235 million, respectively.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment held cash of $626 million and liabilities of $332 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company had free cash flow of $102 million.</p><p><b>Study Analysis</b></p><p>BOSS Direct Recruitment hopes to gain support from the US capital market to help them continue to expand in the Chinese market.</p><p>From the company's financial performance, their revenue and gross profit margin have grown rapidly, and the operational level has turned losses into profits. Free cash flow for the year ended March 31, 2021 was more than $101 million, which was impressive.</p><p>In China, providing online recruitment services for job seekers and employers has a huge market volume and promising prospects.</p><p>Goldman Sachs is the leading underwriter of this transaction. In the past twelve months, the company's IPO shares underwritten by the company have achieved an average return of 42.9%, which is in the middle of the comparison of all major underwriters in the same period.</p><p>The number one risk facing BOSS Direct hiring is that the company may face a series of competitive pressures, such as talent networks or other mainstream international recruitment companies entering their market, which, once realized, will threaten their growth prospects or force them to significantly increase marketing spending and suppress profitability.</p><p>All kinds of online businesses with high profit margins in China often end up attracting a large number of competitors, and the main means of competition is to fight a price war, which is obviously not good news for the future returns of stocks.</p><p>From the valuation point of view, the price offered by BOSS Direct for US IPO investors means that the company's enterprise value-to-revenue ratio is about 19.2. Although this figure is higher than the current overall level of software-as-a-service stocks, the revenue growth momentum of BOSS Direct is stronger. They have crossed the profit threshold at the operational level and generated considerable free cash flow.</p><p>Therefore, although the price of BOSS Direct Recruitment IPO is not cheap, it is still worth paying attention to investors interested in the growth prospects of China's online recruitment market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361ada34c84eeaafbb2e860b6eb0db6f\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-12 00:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 12th, Beijing time, BOSS directly hired and landed on Nasdaq, which rose by 75% on the first day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57551fd25362c75885fbb928efe43f8a\"></p><p>As an Internet underwriter, Tiger Brokers is listed on the cover of BOSS direct prospectus with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Huaxing, Haitong and other internationally renowned banks, showing the influence of Tiger Brokers as the head Internet technology investment bank.<br></p><p><br></p><p>According to the latest prospectus information, BOSS Direct Recruitment will publicly issue 48 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an issue price of US$19 per share, raising about US$912 million, and the total market value was US$7.599 billion at the opening.</p><p>This valuation has exceeded the sum of Worry-Free Future, which has a public valuation of US$5 billion, and Zhaopin Recruitment, which can only be valued at US$1.7 billion in the private equity fund market due to delisting, making it the highest valued Chinese recruitment platform.</p><p>Of course, being able to reach such a high valuation shows to some extent that BOSS Direct Recruitment also has its own financial performance and has been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of BOSS Direct Recruitment can be roughly summarized as follows: strong revenue growth momentum; Gross profit growth was strong and gross margin remained stable; Although the operating profit is low, it has turned losses into profits; Cash flow from operations skyrocketed.</p><p>Specifically, BOSS Direct Recruitment's revenue in 2020 reached 298 million USD, a 95.4% increase from 152 million USD in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue reached 120 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 178.9%.</p><p>BOSS Direct Gross Profit was US$261 million in 2020, an increase of 98.7% from US$131 million in 2019, and reached US$104 million in the first quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 178.4%. Meanwhile, in 2019, 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin remained almost unchanged at 86.20%, 87.65% and 86.45%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment achieved operating profit of $392,800, $1,356,000, and $35,400,000, respectively, with operating profit margins of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. During the same period, the company's net losses were $112 million, $188 million and $40.972 million, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Hire cash flow from operations was-16.1318 million, 60.6760 million, and 25.235 million, respectively.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment held cash of $626 million and liabilities of $332 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company had free cash flow of $102 million.</p><p><b>Study Analysis</b></p><p>BOSS Direct Recruitment hopes to gain support from the US capital market to help them continue to expand in the Chinese market.</p><p>From the company's financial performance, their revenue and gross profit margin have grown rapidly, and the operational level has turned losses into profits. Free cash flow for the year ended March 31, 2021 was more than $101 million, which was impressive.</p><p>In China, providing online recruitment services for job seekers and employers has a huge market volume and promising prospects.</p><p>Goldman Sachs is the leading underwriter of this transaction. In the past twelve months, the company's IPO shares underwritten by the company have achieved an average return of 42.9%, which is in the middle of the comparison of all major underwriters in the same period.</p><p>The number one risk facing BOSS Direct hiring is that the company may face a series of competitive pressures, such as talent networks or other mainstream international recruitment companies entering their market, which, once realized, will threaten their growth prospects or force them to significantly increase marketing spending and suppress profitability.</p><p>All kinds of online businesses with high profit margins in China often end up attracting a large number of competitors, and the main means of competition is to fight a price war, which is obviously not good news for the future returns of stocks.</p><p>From the valuation point of view, the price offered by BOSS Direct for US IPO investors means that the company's enterprise value-to-revenue ratio is about 19.2. Although this figure is higher than the current overall level of software-as-a-service stocks, the revenue growth momentum of BOSS Direct is stronger. They have crossed the profit threshold at the operational level and generated considerable free cash flow.</p><p>Therefore, although the price of BOSS Direct Recruitment IPO is not cheap, it is still worth paying attention to investors interested in the growth prospects of China's online recruitment market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361ada34c84eeaafbb2e860b6eb0db6f\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aee31599ee7010691cc73f0ff8ac182","relate_stocks":{"BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156959915","content_text":"北京时间6月12日，BOSS直聘登陆纳斯达克，首日开涨75%。\n老虎证券作为互联网承销商，与高盛、摩根士丹利、UBS、华兴、海通等国际知名大行同列BOSS直聘招股书封面，展现出老虎证券作为头部互联网科技投行的影响力。\n\n根据最新招股书信息显示，BOSS直聘将公开发行4800万股美国存托股份（ADS），发行价定为每股19美元，募资约9.12亿美元，总市值开盘时是75.99亿美元。\n而这个估值已经超过公开估值50亿美元的前程无忧和由于退市只能在私募基金市场有估值17亿美元的智联招聘之和，成为估值最高的中国招聘平台。\n当然，能达到如此高额的估值，在一定程度上表明BOSS直聘也有着自己的在财务上的表现得到了资本市场的认可。\n财务表现\nBOSS直聘近期的财务表现大约可以做如下概括：营收增长势头强劲；毛利润增长强劲，毛利润率保持稳定；运营利润虽然低，但是已经实现了扭亏为盈；运营现金流猛增。\n具体而言，BOSS直聘2020年营收达到了2.98亿美元，较之2019年的1.52亿美元猛增95.4%之多，而2021年第一季度，公司营收就达到了1.20亿美元，同比增幅更高达178.9%。\nBOSS直聘毛利润2020年为2.61亿美元，较之2019年的1.31亿美元增长98.7%，而2021年第一季度达到1.04亿美元，同比增幅高达178.4%。与此同时，在2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度当中，公司毛利润率分别为86.20%、87.65%和86.45%，几乎保持不变。\n2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度，BOSS直聘分别实现运营利润39.28万美元、135.60万美元和35、40万美元，运营利润率分别为0.3%、0.5%和0.3%。同期内，公司净亏损分别为1.12亿美元、1.88亿美元和4097.20万美元。\n2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度，BOSS直聘运营现金流分别为-1613.18万美元、6067.60万美元和2523.50万美元。\n截至2021年3月31日，BOSS直聘持有现金6.26亿美元，负债3.32亿美元。截至2021年3月31日的十二个月内，公司自由现金流为1.02亿美元。\n研究分析\nBOSS直聘希望获得美国资本市场的支持，帮助他们在中国市场上继续扩张。\n从公司的财务表现看，他们营收和毛利润率增长迅猛，运营层面已经实现扭亏为盈。截至2021年3月31日的自由现金流超过1.01亿美元，令人印象深刻。\n在中国，为求职者和雇主提供线上招聘服务，市场体量是很巨大的，前景是很可观的。\n高盛是本次交易的领衔承销商，在过去十二个月时间内，该公司领衔承销的IPO股票，平均回报率为42.9%，在所有主要承销商同期业绩的比较当中位于中游水平。\nBOSS直聘面前的头号风险是，该公司可能会面对一系列竞争压力，比如人才网络，或者其他主流国际招聘公司进入他们所在的市场，而这些一旦成为现实，就将威胁到他们的增长前景，或者是迫使他们大幅提升营销支出，打压盈利能力。\n中国各种利润率较高的线上业务，往往最终都会吸引大量竞争者，而最主要的竞争手段就是大打价格战，而这对于股票未来的回报显然不是什么好消息。\n从估值角度看，BOSS直聘为美国IPO投资者开出的价格意味着公司企业价值营收比率为19.2左右，虽然这一数字高于软件即服务股票当前的总体水平，但是BOSS直聘的营收增长势头更为强劲，他们已经在运营层面越过盈利门槛，并且产生了可观的自由现金流。\n因此，虽然BOSS直聘IPO价格称不上低廉，但是对于那些有意于中国线上招聘市场成长前景的投资者而言，这一股票还是值得关注的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115268613,"gmtCreate":1623011781232,"gmtModify":1704194231678,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115268613","repostId":"2141285413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622971587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 17:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are many \"broken defense\" rooms, and what other capital stories are good?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285413","media":"节点财经","summary":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二","content":"<p>From 2001 to the present,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">Fang Duoduo</a>Just 10 years have passed. Starting from the Groupon model at the beginning, after several evolutions, Fang Duoduo went public with the aura of \"the first SaaS stock in industrial Internet\".</p><p>Nowadays, the aura is beginning to fade, and unfavorable factors have appeared in many aspects, such as Fang Duoduo's own positioning, continuous losses and the performance of the secondary market-the SaaS story is \"not working\", the stock price in the capital market is tepid, and the competition in the industry is also intensifying, and Fang Duoduo's profitability is weakening.</p><p>Recently, Fang Duoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of this year. The financial report showed that Fang Duoduo's adjusted net loss was 93 million yuan. The loss has intensified again, and Fang Duoduo seems to be facing a \"breaking defense\" across the board?</p><p> / 01 /</p><p>Story breaking defense</p><p>How to talk about \"the first real estate SaaS stock\"?</p><p>In 2010, the three founders of Fangduoduo thought that although the Internet was in full swing, it was far from two industries, one was real estate and the other was medical care. Among the three founders, Zeng Xi and Duan Yi are both born in real estate sales. Transforming the real estate market through the Internet has become the direction of their entrepreneurship, and Fangduoduo came into being.</p><p>Fang Duoduo can grow rapidly, which has a great relationship with the industry environment at that time. At that time, the efficiency of real estate transactions in China was extremely low, and the penetration of the Internet into the real estate industry was still in a very weak stage. There are pain points and demand for transformation in the industry. Fang Duoduo's original intention is to \"improve efficiency for brokers through Internet-based tools\", which just makes up for the lacking links in this industrial chain.</p><p>In the initial stage of development, Fangduoduo realized profits by selling coupons to buyers, that is, by cooperating with developers to obtain coupons for buying houses, and then selling coupons to customers through brokers and sharing them with brokers. After this model continued for 4 or 5 years, important changes have taken place in the industry-houses are easy to sell, and some people rush to buy them without discounting.</p><p>So Fang Duoduo began to collect commissions from developers, and brokers took customers. After the transaction, Fang Duoduo paid commissions. To this day, this is still the main source of income for Fang Duoduo.</p><p>In recent years, under the high pressure of \"three red lines\", the real estate industry has gradually entered the stock era. Fang Duoduo has played its own new label: \"SaaS\" service. Simply understood, it is to help developers realize digitalization and open up the digital platform of brokers. That is To say, after making the platform, Fang Duoduo began To make standardized products and provide To B services.</p><p>Zeng Xi, co-CEO of Fangduoduo, once said, \"Fangduoduo wants to be a SaaS service company that not only helps upstream developers realize Internet, but also helps downstream brokerage companies realize SaaS.\"</p><p>After telling this \"story\", Fangduoduo transformed from a real estate trading platform into a technology enterprise. In 2019, when Fang Duoduo was listed on Nasdaq, it had the super aura of \"the first SaaS stock in industrial Internet\".</p><p>But this \"story\" is not so easy to tell, and the shadow behind the aura is not small. In recent years, Fang Duoduo has been questioned by the industry about the attributes of SaaS. The reason is that, from the perspective of income structure, the proportion of Fangduoduo's commissions and handling fees has remained above 90% for a long time, and the proportion of innovative business income including SaaS services is less than 10%.</p><p>From 2017 to 2020, commission and fee income and innovative business income accounted for 91.9% and 8.1%, respectively; 89.1%、10.9%； 96.0%、4.0%； 90.7%、9.3%。 From 2017 to 2020, the revenue of innovative business was 146 million, 248 million, 144 million and 228 million respectively. It can be seen that the revenue brought by SaaS services is not high and accounts for a small proportion. Fangduoduo is still a company that makes money on commissions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797e193abbaff10e77690a5e46d9d36c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Fangduoduo Financial Report, wind</p><p>American Real Estate Technology Corp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>It also takes SaaS as the core, but in revenue, SaaS tools and solutions contribute nearly 70% of the revenue. It can be seen that Fang Duoduo is still quite far from the goal of \"real estate Taobao\" put forward by himself.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of last year, Fangduoduo fully upgraded its SaaS to Fangyun SaaS, which serves the upstream and downstream digital marketing of the industry, helping developers to accurately and directly connect online and quickly start brokers, trying to improve the matching efficiency of houses and customers in real estate transactions, while controlling the marketing cost. However, from the just-released first-quarter financial report, it did not meet the expectations of Fang Duoduo.</p><p> / 02 /</p><p>Earnings Break Defense</p><p>Listing is highlight, profitability declines all the way</p><p>Recently, Fang Duoduo announced its latest quarterly financial report. According to the financial report, in the first quarter of 2021, Fangduoduo's revenue was 291 million yuan and its net loss was 102 million yuan. On a Non-GAAP basis, Fangduoduo's adjusted net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was 93 million.</p><p>If the listing is regarded as a watershed, then before the listing, the revenue of Fang Duoduo is increasing year by year, while since the listing, the losses of Fang Duoduo are expanding.</p><p>There are many houses before listing, and the revenue from 2017 to 2019 was 1.798.5 billion yuan, 2.282.2 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan respectively. After listing, it began to decline. Since the first quarter of 2020, the revenue in a single quarter was 272.1 million yuan, 737.7 million yuan, 819.1 million yuan and 622.4 million yuan respectively. Year-on-year declines of-58.52%, -22.20%, -13.59% and-40.57%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Fangduoduo's revenue dropped to 291 million yuan. Instead of taking off with the help of the capital market, Fang Duoduo rushed down, and the net profit attributable to the parent grew negatively. From the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, Fang Duoduo's net profit attributable to the parent was-136 million yuan, -13.99 million yuan, 21.91 million yuan, -91.76 million yuan and-102 million yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82dd656d8813a53e71e2eaf71afcdac4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Fangduoduo Financial Report, wind</p><p>Is the reason for the decline in performance the pandemic?</p><p>Although the epidemic has had some impact, it seems that the decline of Fangduoduo's revenue cannot be completely deducted from the epidemic. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the sales of commercial housing nationwide were close to 17.4 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. During the same period, the volume of housing transactions facilitated on the Fangduoduo platform dropped by 14%.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Operating income was 70.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%; Net profit for the year reached 2.778 billion yuan, achieving full-year profit under US accounting standards for the first time. By the end of 2020, Shell GTV (the total transaction volume of the platform in the whole year) exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan, and GTV increased to 3.0 times.</p><p>Excluding the influence of external factors, there is another crucial factor left-the intensification of industry competition.</p><p>Fangduoduo has always boasted of being an independent third-party platform, but the appearance of shells and Anjuke has broken this balance. When Zuo Hui decided to be a shell, the industry accused him of being both a referee and an athlete, but judging from the results, Zuo Hui's choice was correct. At the beginning, the most critical voice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58INTERCITY</a>Now, it will also develop its Anjuke in the same direction.</p><p>The opponents are strong, and they are willing to invest generously. They quickly occupy the market through subsidies and commissions, which has become a way for shells to quickly occupy users' minds. However, Fang Duoduo believes that vicious subsidies will not bring sustainable growth, so he gives up the decision to pay subsidies. This decision put Fang Duoduo under pressure in business. Zeng Xi also said that not participating in vicious subsidies put short-lived pressure on the company.</p><p>In 2020, Fangduoduo's transaction scale and revenue both declined. In 2020, the total closed-loop transaction GMV (total transaction volume) facilitated by Fangduoduo was 181.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%; Realized revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%.</p><p>Although the subsidy was abandoned, seeing that the market value of shells has reached 64.439 billion US dollars and is headed towards a market value of 100 billion US dollars, Fang Duoduo is not in a hurry. In the fourth quarter of last year, Fang Duoduo started to carry out large-scale brand promotion and publicity, and the sales expenses reached 32 million yuan, an increase of 88%. It doesn't seem much, but you should know that its annual sales expenses are only 38 million yuan.</p><p>Nowadays, real estate developers have also begun to sell buildings online, and with the addition of Internet giants, many buildings have to change. Previously, Fang Duoduo had always emphasized the attribute of independent third parties. Duan Yi promised to the outside world, \"Be an independent platform, don't employ a broker or open an offline store; Defend the legitimate interests of every platform merchant; Don't encroach on the private data of any merchant.\"</p><p>But subtly, this positioning is also changing. In November last year, Fang Duoduo announced a stake in Yuan Cui, a franchise service operation platform of Zhongyuan Group. By taking a stake, Fang Duoduo completed the process from online to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and offline</a>On the occasion of integrated transformation, it also lost the attribute of \"independent third-party platform\".</p><p>Give up \"independence\" is to have stronger chips to participate in the competition and embrace a larger market. This is the most fundamental means and method for Fang Duoduo to turn losses at present.</p><p> / 03 /</p><p>Valuation \"breaking defense\"</p><p>Competition intensifies, capital markets don't buy it</p><p>At the beginning, it was listed with highlights, which originated from the pursuit of SaaS projects by investors in the secondary market. Especially in the US market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And Slack are superstars in this field. The combination of SaaS and industry gives real estate with low technology gold content an imaginative tomorrow.</p><p>After Fangduoduo's SaaS business ran for several quarters, the business quality surfaced. In November 2019, the issuance price of Fangduoduo was $13 when it went public. As of the close of trading on June 4th, the quotation was $3.17, a drop of more than 70%.</p><p>The development of SaaS-related innovative service business has not been effective for several years. At present, Fang Duoduo is facing two problems,</p><p>First, will innovative services continue to exert their strength?</p><p>The founding team gave a positive answer. Zeng Xi once said that Fangduoduo has two core advantages. The first is that it has gathered the largest broker group in China and is online at high frequency; The second is the ability to deliver system solutions that has been accumulated over the past decade. \"Based on these two advantages, we will unswervingly promote developers to go online faster and help developers build the systems and operational services needed to go online.\"</p><p>Second, how high is the core competence barrier of Fang Duoduo?</p><p>There are many services in the industry, such as shells. At present, there are nearly 300 brands, 47,000 stores and nearly 500,000 brokers in the shell ecology. A large amount of data allows Shell to have a powerful data system, which can serve brokers, store managers and platform service personnel on the platform, and make the operation process online. On the whole, this service is still an online operating system within the scope of real estate transactions.</p><p>Another kind of more representative is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">Mingyuanyun</a>。 Mingyuan Cloud started as an enterprise ERP, and now it has transformed into a marketing SaaS service provider. The main service object is real estate enterprises.</p><p>It can be said that at present, mainstream traditional real estate enterprises have used Mingyuan Cloud's ERP system.</p><p>Mingyuan's SaaS business is mainly subdivided into cloud customer, cloud chain, cloud procurement, cloud space, etc., covering all aspects of the operation of real estate developers. Among them, Yunke (that is, the marketing SaaS system) has grown rapidly in the epidemic environment. In 2020, Mingyuan Cloud quickly launched handheld sales, integrating functions such as online communication, digital exhibition hall and online opening.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the fourth quarter of 2020, Fangduoduo also launched Fangyun SaaS. In terms of function, Fangyun SaaS' Ziqubao products launched online stores<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>New functions such as recommendation, merchant dynamics, salesman online store, and high-intention visitor reach reminder help case sales quickly start brokerage merchants on the B-side. At the same time, private domain marketing tools have also been launched to Fangyun APP simultaneously, supporting developers to initiate new games such as live broadcast, short video customer acquisition, one-click generation of VR in real estate, and online viewing by C-end users.</p><p>Everyone's gameplay is similar, and the competition will undoubtedly be more intense.</p><p>From the industrial perspective, there are giants such as Shell and Anjuke, and from the perspective of SaaS services, there are also Mingyuan Cloud and a group of small and medium-sized players transformed from ERP.</p><p>Does Fang Duoduo still have a chance? From the former point of view, real estate brokers present the Internet attribute of the strong, and the larger the scale, the stronger the strength will be; From the latter perspective, among the top 100 housing enterprises in 2020, Mingyuan Cloud cooperated with 97, and the unit price of customers increased from 3.7 million yuan to 6.1 million yuan. To sum up, in the fiercely competitive industry, Fang Duoduo's report card is not a top student. In the future, stronger team execution and faster speed are needed to have a chance to overtake.</p><p>This year, an important personnel change took place in Fang Duoduo, and Liu Tianyang officially served as the senior vice president of Fang Duoduo. The new vice president currently serves as a director of Centaline Group, vice president of Centaline Real Estate (Mainland China), president of Yuancui and president of several mu real estate.</p><p>Fang Duoduo is the major shareholder of Yuancui. What is the meaning of Liu Tianyang's joining? It is understood that Liu Tianyang will be responsible for second-hand housing and innovative business, including second-hand housing trading division, good living and good housing exchange business department.</p><p>Second-hand housing is most likely the next business focus of Fangduoduo after innovative business.</p><p>In 2020, the cumulative closed-loop GMV of Fangduoduo's second-hand houses was 73.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.26%. In the whole year of 2020, the national second-hand housing transaction amount was 7.3 trillion yuan, the largest transaction amount since 2015.</p><p>As early as 2014, Fang Duoduo had invested a lot of resources in second-hand business. However, the business development is not smooth. In 2016, Fang Duoduo completely shrank the second-hand housing business and returned to the new homeowner's track. This time, re-mention the second-hand housing business. Is Fang Duoduo really ready?</p><p>At present, the market value of Fangduoduo is $263 million, and the market value of Shell is 245 times that. In April, Anjuke submitted an application for listing to HKEx, and the real estate trading market will usher in another giant. There are many houses facing \"broken defense\", and more changes are needed to cope with challenges.</p>","source":"jdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are many \"broken defense\" rooms, and what other capital stories are good?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are many \"broken defense\" rooms, and what other capital stories are good?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">节点财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 17:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From 2001 to the present,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">Fang Duoduo</a>Just 10 years have passed. Starting from the Groupon model at the beginning, after several evolutions, Fang Duoduo went public with the aura of \"the first SaaS stock in industrial Internet\".</p><p>Nowadays, the aura is beginning to fade, and unfavorable factors have appeared in many aspects, such as Fang Duoduo's own positioning, continuous losses and the performance of the secondary market-the SaaS story is \"not working\", the stock price in the capital market is tepid, and the competition in the industry is also intensifying, and Fang Duoduo's profitability is weakening.</p><p>Recently, Fang Duoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of this year. The financial report showed that Fang Duoduo's adjusted net loss was 93 million yuan. The loss has intensified again, and Fang Duoduo seems to be facing a \"breaking defense\" across the board?</p><p> / 01 /</p><p>Story breaking defense</p><p>How to talk about \"the first real estate SaaS stock\"?</p><p>In 2010, the three founders of Fangduoduo thought that although the Internet was in full swing, it was far from two industries, one was real estate and the other was medical care. Among the three founders, Zeng Xi and Duan Yi are both born in real estate sales. Transforming the real estate market through the Internet has become the direction of their entrepreneurship, and Fangduoduo came into being.</p><p>Fang Duoduo can grow rapidly, which has a great relationship with the industry environment at that time. At that time, the efficiency of real estate transactions in China was extremely low, and the penetration of the Internet into the real estate industry was still in a very weak stage. There are pain points and demand for transformation in the industry. Fang Duoduo's original intention is to \"improve efficiency for brokers through Internet-based tools\", which just makes up for the lacking links in this industrial chain.</p><p>In the initial stage of development, Fangduoduo realized profits by selling coupons to buyers, that is, by cooperating with developers to obtain coupons for buying houses, and then selling coupons to customers through brokers and sharing them with brokers. After this model continued for 4 or 5 years, important changes have taken place in the industry-houses are easy to sell, and some people rush to buy them without discounting.</p><p>So Fang Duoduo began to collect commissions from developers, and brokers took customers. After the transaction, Fang Duoduo paid commissions. To this day, this is still the main source of income for Fang Duoduo.</p><p>In recent years, under the high pressure of \"three red lines\", the real estate industry has gradually entered the stock era. Fang Duoduo has played its own new label: \"SaaS\" service. Simply understood, it is to help developers realize digitalization and open up the digital platform of brokers. That is To say, after making the platform, Fang Duoduo began To make standardized products and provide To B services.</p><p>Zeng Xi, co-CEO of Fangduoduo, once said, \"Fangduoduo wants to be a SaaS service company that not only helps upstream developers realize Internet, but also helps downstream brokerage companies realize SaaS.\"</p><p>After telling this \"story\", Fangduoduo transformed from a real estate trading platform into a technology enterprise. In 2019, when Fang Duoduo was listed on Nasdaq, it had the super aura of \"the first SaaS stock in industrial Internet\".</p><p>But this \"story\" is not so easy to tell, and the shadow behind the aura is not small. In recent years, Fang Duoduo has been questioned by the industry about the attributes of SaaS. The reason is that, from the perspective of income structure, the proportion of Fangduoduo's commissions and handling fees has remained above 90% for a long time, and the proportion of innovative business income including SaaS services is less than 10%.</p><p>From 2017 to 2020, commission and fee income and innovative business income accounted for 91.9% and 8.1%, respectively; 89.1%、10.9%； 96.0%、4.0%； 90.7%、9.3%。 From 2017 to 2020, the revenue of innovative business was 146 million, 248 million, 144 million and 228 million respectively. It can be seen that the revenue brought by SaaS services is not high and accounts for a small proportion. Fangduoduo is still a company that makes money on commissions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797e193abbaff10e77690a5e46d9d36c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Fangduoduo Financial Report, wind</p><p>American Real Estate Technology Corp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>It also takes SaaS as the core, but in revenue, SaaS tools and solutions contribute nearly 70% of the revenue. It can be seen that Fang Duoduo is still quite far from the goal of \"real estate Taobao\" put forward by himself.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of last year, Fangduoduo fully upgraded its SaaS to Fangyun SaaS, which serves the upstream and downstream digital marketing of the industry, helping developers to accurately and directly connect online and quickly start brokers, trying to improve the matching efficiency of houses and customers in real estate transactions, while controlling the marketing cost. However, from the just-released first-quarter financial report, it did not meet the expectations of Fang Duoduo.</p><p> / 02 /</p><p>Earnings Break Defense</p><p>Listing is highlight, profitability declines all the way</p><p>Recently, Fang Duoduo announced its latest quarterly financial report. According to the financial report, in the first quarter of 2021, Fangduoduo's revenue was 291 million yuan and its net loss was 102 million yuan. On a Non-GAAP basis, Fangduoduo's adjusted net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was 93 million.</p><p>If the listing is regarded as a watershed, then before the listing, the revenue of Fang Duoduo is increasing year by year, while since the listing, the losses of Fang Duoduo are expanding.</p><p>There are many houses before listing, and the revenue from 2017 to 2019 was 1.798.5 billion yuan, 2.282.2 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan respectively. After listing, it began to decline. Since the first quarter of 2020, the revenue in a single quarter was 272.1 million yuan, 737.7 million yuan, 819.1 million yuan and 622.4 million yuan respectively. Year-on-year declines of-58.52%, -22.20%, -13.59% and-40.57%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Fangduoduo's revenue dropped to 291 million yuan. Instead of taking off with the help of the capital market, Fang Duoduo rushed down, and the net profit attributable to the parent grew negatively. From the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, Fang Duoduo's net profit attributable to the parent was-136 million yuan, -13.99 million yuan, 21.91 million yuan, -91.76 million yuan and-102 million yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82dd656d8813a53e71e2eaf71afcdac4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Fangduoduo Financial Report, wind</p><p>Is the reason for the decline in performance the pandemic?</p><p>Although the epidemic has had some impact, it seems that the decline of Fangduoduo's revenue cannot be completely deducted from the epidemic. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the sales of commercial housing nationwide were close to 17.4 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. During the same period, the volume of housing transactions facilitated on the Fangduoduo platform dropped by 14%.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Operating income was 70.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%; Net profit for the year reached 2.778 billion yuan, achieving full-year profit under US accounting standards for the first time. By the end of 2020, Shell GTV (the total transaction volume of the platform in the whole year) exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan, and GTV increased to 3.0 times.</p><p>Excluding the influence of external factors, there is another crucial factor left-the intensification of industry competition.</p><p>Fangduoduo has always boasted of being an independent third-party platform, but the appearance of shells and Anjuke has broken this balance. When Zuo Hui decided to be a shell, the industry accused him of being both a referee and an athlete, but judging from the results, Zuo Hui's choice was correct. At the beginning, the most critical voice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58INTERCITY</a>Now, it will also develop its Anjuke in the same direction.</p><p>The opponents are strong, and they are willing to invest generously. They quickly occupy the market through subsidies and commissions, which has become a way for shells to quickly occupy users' minds. However, Fang Duoduo believes that vicious subsidies will not bring sustainable growth, so he gives up the decision to pay subsidies. This decision put Fang Duoduo under pressure in business. Zeng Xi also said that not participating in vicious subsidies put short-lived pressure on the company.</p><p>In 2020, Fangduoduo's transaction scale and revenue both declined. In 2020, the total closed-loop transaction GMV (total transaction volume) facilitated by Fangduoduo was 181.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%; Realized revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%.</p><p>Although the subsidy was abandoned, seeing that the market value of shells has reached 64.439 billion US dollars and is headed towards a market value of 100 billion US dollars, Fang Duoduo is not in a hurry. In the fourth quarter of last year, Fang Duoduo started to carry out large-scale brand promotion and publicity, and the sales expenses reached 32 million yuan, an increase of 88%. It doesn't seem much, but you should know that its annual sales expenses are only 38 million yuan.</p><p>Nowadays, real estate developers have also begun to sell buildings online, and with the addition of Internet giants, many buildings have to change. Previously, Fang Duoduo had always emphasized the attribute of independent third parties. Duan Yi promised to the outside world, \"Be an independent platform, don't employ a broker or open an offline store; Defend the legitimate interests of every platform merchant; Don't encroach on the private data of any merchant.\"</p><p>But subtly, this positioning is also changing. In November last year, Fang Duoduo announced a stake in Yuan Cui, a franchise service operation platform of Zhongyuan Group. By taking a stake, Fang Duoduo completed the process from online to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and offline</a>On the occasion of integrated transformation, it also lost the attribute of \"independent third-party platform\".</p><p>Give up \"independence\" is to have stronger chips to participate in the competition and embrace a larger market. This is the most fundamental means and method for Fang Duoduo to turn losses at present.</p><p> / 03 /</p><p>Valuation \"breaking defense\"</p><p>Competition intensifies, capital markets don't buy it</p><p>At the beginning, it was listed with highlights, which originated from the pursuit of SaaS projects by investors in the secondary market. Especially in the US market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And Slack are superstars in this field. The combination of SaaS and industry gives real estate with low technology gold content an imaginative tomorrow.</p><p>After Fangduoduo's SaaS business ran for several quarters, the business quality surfaced. In November 2019, the issuance price of Fangduoduo was $13 when it went public. As of the close of trading on June 4th, the quotation was $3.17, a drop of more than 70%.</p><p>The development of SaaS-related innovative service business has not been effective for several years. At present, Fang Duoduo is facing two problems,</p><p>First, will innovative services continue to exert their strength?</p><p>The founding team gave a positive answer. Zeng Xi once said that Fangduoduo has two core advantages. The first is that it has gathered the largest broker group in China and is online at high frequency; The second is the ability to deliver system solutions that has been accumulated over the past decade. \"Based on these two advantages, we will unswervingly promote developers to go online faster and help developers build the systems and operational services needed to go online.\"</p><p>Second, how high is the core competence barrier of Fang Duoduo?</p><p>There are many services in the industry, such as shells. At present, there are nearly 300 brands, 47,000 stores and nearly 500,000 brokers in the shell ecology. A large amount of data allows Shell to have a powerful data system, which can serve brokers, store managers and platform service personnel on the platform, and make the operation process online. On the whole, this service is still an online operating system within the scope of real estate transactions.</p><p>Another kind of more representative is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">Mingyuanyun</a>。 Mingyuan Cloud started as an enterprise ERP, and now it has transformed into a marketing SaaS service provider. The main service object is real estate enterprises.</p><p>It can be said that at present, mainstream traditional real estate enterprises have used Mingyuan Cloud's ERP system.</p><p>Mingyuan's SaaS business is mainly subdivided into cloud customer, cloud chain, cloud procurement, cloud space, etc., covering all aspects of the operation of real estate developers. Among them, Yunke (that is, the marketing SaaS system) has grown rapidly in the epidemic environment. In 2020, Mingyuan Cloud quickly launched handheld sales, integrating functions such as online communication, digital exhibition hall and online opening.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the fourth quarter of 2020, Fangduoduo also launched Fangyun SaaS. In terms of function, Fangyun SaaS' Ziqubao products launched online stores<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>New functions such as recommendation, merchant dynamics, salesman online store, and high-intention visitor reach reminder help case sales quickly start brokerage merchants on the B-side. At the same time, private domain marketing tools have also been launched to Fangyun APP simultaneously, supporting developers to initiate new games such as live broadcast, short video customer acquisition, one-click generation of VR in real estate, and online viewing by C-end users.</p><p>Everyone's gameplay is similar, and the competition will undoubtedly be more intense.</p><p>From the industrial perspective, there are giants such as Shell and Anjuke, and from the perspective of SaaS services, there are also Mingyuan Cloud and a group of small and medium-sized players transformed from ERP.</p><p>Does Fang Duoduo still have a chance? From the former point of view, real estate brokers present the Internet attribute of the strong, and the larger the scale, the stronger the strength will be; From the latter perspective, among the top 100 housing enterprises in 2020, Mingyuan Cloud cooperated with 97, and the unit price of customers increased from 3.7 million yuan to 6.1 million yuan. To sum up, in the fiercely competitive industry, Fang Duoduo's report card is not a top student. In the future, stronger team execution and faster speed are needed to have a chance to overtake.</p><p>This year, an important personnel change took place in Fang Duoduo, and Liu Tianyang officially served as the senior vice president of Fang Duoduo. The new vice president currently serves as a director of Centaline Group, vice president of Centaline Real Estate (Mainland China), president of Yuancui and president of several mu real estate.</p><p>Fang Duoduo is the major shareholder of Yuancui. What is the meaning of Liu Tianyang's joining? It is understood that Liu Tianyang will be responsible for second-hand housing and innovative business, including second-hand housing trading division, good living and good housing exchange business department.</p><p>Second-hand housing is most likely the next business focus of Fangduoduo after innovative business.</p><p>In 2020, the cumulative closed-loop GMV of Fangduoduo's second-hand houses was 73.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.26%. In the whole year of 2020, the national second-hand housing transaction amount was 7.3 trillion yuan, the largest transaction amount since 2015.</p><p>As early as 2014, Fang Duoduo had invested a lot of resources in second-hand business. However, the business development is not smooth. In 2016, Fang Duoduo completely shrank the second-hand housing business and returned to the new homeowner's track. This time, re-mention the second-hand housing business. Is Fang Duoduo really ready?</p><p>At present, the market value of Fangduoduo is $263 million, and the market value of Shell is 245 times that. In April, Anjuke submitted an application for listing to HKEx, and the real estate trading market will usher in another giant. There are many houses facing \"broken defense\", and more changes are needed to cope with challenges.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml\">节点财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"DUO":"房多多"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141285413","content_text":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。\n近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。亏损再一次加剧，房多多似乎正在面临全线“破防”？\n / 01 /\n故事破防\n“房产SaaS第一股”如何讲下去？\n2010年时，房多多的三位创始人认为互联网虽然发展如火如荼，但是距离两个行业很远，其一是房地产，其二是医疗。三位创始人中，曾熙和段毅都是房产销售出身，通过互联网改造房地产市场就成为他们创业的方向，房多多应运而生。\n房多多能快速成长，与当时行业的环境有极大的关系。当时，中国房地产交易效率极低，互联网对房地产行业的渗透还处在非常弱的阶段。行业有痛点和改造的需求，房多多以“通过互联网化的工具为经纪人提高效率”为初衷，刚好补上了这个产业链上所欠缺的环节。\n在发展最初阶段，房多多通过向买房者卖优惠券的方式来实现盈利，即通过与开发商合作获得购房优惠券，然后把优惠券通过经纪人卖给客户，与经纪人进行分成。这种模式延续了4、5年后，行业发生了重要的变化——房子好卖了，不需要打折也有人抢着买。\n于是房多多开始向开发商收佣金，由经纪人带客，成交以后给房多多付佣金。时至今日，这仍然是房多多最主要的收入来源。\n近几年，“三道红线”的高压之下，房地产行业逐步走进存量时代。房多多打出了自己新的标签：“SaaS”服务。简单理解，就是帮助开发商实现数字化，打通经纪人的数字化平台。也就是说房多多在做出了平台之后，开始做标准化的产品，提供To B服务。\n房多多联席CEO曾熙曾表示，“房多多就是想做一家既帮助上游开发商实现互联网化的SaaS服务公司，又帮助下游经纪公司实现SaaS化的服务公司。”\n讲出这个“故事”后，房多多从一家房产交易平台摇身一变成了科技企业。2019年，房多多在纳斯达克上市时，就顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的超级光环。\n但这个“故事”并不是那么好讲，光环背后阴影面不小。近几年，房多多一直被业内质疑SaaS的属性。原因是，从收入结构看，房多多佣金及手续费占比长期维持在90%以上，包含SaaS服务的创新业务收入占比不足10%。\n2017-2020年，佣金及手续费收入及创新业务收入占比分别为91.9%、8.1%；89.1%、10.9%；96.0%、4.0%；90.7%、9.3%。2017年到2020年，创新业务收入分别为1.46亿、2.48亿、1.44亿、2.28亿，可以看出，SaaS服务所带来的营收并不高，且占比很小。房多多还是一家靠佣金赚钱的公司。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n美国房产科技公司Zillow也以SaaS为核心，但营收中，SaaS工具及解决方案贡献收入接近70%。可见房多多距离自己提出的“房地产淘宝”目标还有相当的距离。\n去年四季度，房多多将旗下SaaS全面升级为服务产业上下游全场景数字化营销的房云SaaS，帮助开发商在线精准直连、快速启动经纪人，试图通过这一方式一边提升房地产交易的房源和客源的匹配效率，另一边控制营销成本。但从刚刚发布的一季度财报看，并未如达到房多多的期待。\n / 02 /\n盈利破防\n上市即高光，盈利能力一路下滑\n近期，房多多公布了最新的季度财报。财报显示，2021年一季度，房多多营收为2.910亿元，净亏损为1.02亿元。非美国会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，房多多2021年第一季度经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。\n如果将上市作为分水岭，那么上市前，房多多的营收呈逐年增长，而自上市后，房多多的亏损正在不断扩大。\n上市前的房多多，2017-2019年营收分别为17.985亿元、22.822亿元、36亿元。而上市后则开始走下坡路，从2020年第一季度开始，单季度营收分别为2.721亿元、7.377亿元、8.191亿元、6.224亿元。同比分别下滑了-58.52%、-22.20%、-13.59%和-40.57%。\n今年一季度，房多多的营收更下滑至2.91亿元。房多多非但没有借助资本市场腾飞，反而一个下冲，归母净利润负增长，从2020年第一季度至2021年第一季度，房多多归母净利润分别为-1.36亿元、-1399万、2191万元、-9176万元、-1.02亿元。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n业绩下滑原因是疫情吗？\n虽然疫情有所影响，但房多多营收的下降似乎不能完全扣在疫情上。国家统计局数据显示，2020年，全国商品房销售额接近17.4万亿元，同比增长了8.7%。同期，房多多平台上促成的房屋交易额下降了14%。\n同一时间，贝壳营业收入为705亿元，同比增长53.2%；全年净利润达27.78亿元，首次实现美国会计准则下的全年盈利。而截至2020年末，贝壳GTV（全年平台总交易额）突破3.5万亿元，GTV增长至3.0倍。\n排除外界因素影响，就剩下另一个至关重要的因素——行业竞争的加剧。\n房多多一直自诩为独立第三方平台，但贝壳、安居客的出现打破这样的平衡。在左晖决定做贝壳时，业内都指责他既做裁判，又做运动员，但从结果看，左晖的选择是正确的。当初，责难声最重的58同城，如今也将旗下的安居客向同样的方向发展。\n对手们实力强劲，还舍得大手笔投放，通过补贴和佣金迅速占领市场，成为贝壳们快速占领用户心智的方法，但房多多认为恶性补贴不会带来可持续的增长，便放弃了支付补贴的决定。而这一决定让房多多在业务上承压。曾熙也表示，不参与恶性补贴给公司带来了短暂的压力。\n2020年，房多多的交易规模和收入均出现下滑。2020年，房多多促成的总闭环交易GMV(交易总额)1811亿元，同比下降14.0%；实现收入24.5亿元，同比下降31.9%。\n虽然放弃补贴，但是眼看着贝壳市值已经达到644.39亿美元、正在朝向千亿市值进发，房多多也并非不急，去年第四季度，房多多开始大规模的进行品牌推广和宣传，销售费用达到0.32亿元，增幅高达88%，看上去不多，但要知道，而其全年销售费用也只有0.38亿元。\n如今，房地产商也开始在线卖楼，加上互联网巨头的加入，房多多不得不变。此前，房多多一直强调独立第三方的属性，段毅对外界承诺，“做独立平台，不自雇一个经纪人，不开一个线下店；捍卫每一个平台商户的正当利益；不侵占任何一个商户的私有数据。”\n但潜移默化中，这一定位也在改变。去年11月，房多多宣布入股中原集团旗下加盟服务运营平台原萃，借由入股，房多多完成了由线上到线上线下的一体化转型之际，但也丢掉了“独立第三方平台”的属性。\n放弃“独立”，是为了有更强的筹码参与竞争，拥抱更大的市场，这是房多多当前想要扭亏最根本的手段和方法。\n / 03 /\n估值“破防”\n竞争加剧、资本市场不买账\n当初顶着高光上市，源自二级市场投资人对SaaS类项目的追捧。尤其是在美国市场，Salesforce、Zoom、Slack都是这一领域的超级明星。SaaS与产业相结合，给了科技含金量较低的房地产一个充满想象力的明天。\n房多多的SaaS业务跑了几个季度后，业务质地浮上水面。2019年11月，房多多上市时的发行价为13美元，截至6月4日收盘，报价为3.17美元，跌去超过7成。\nSaaS相关的创新服务业务发展几年仍然不见成效，当前，房多多面临两个问题，\n其一、创新服务是否还会持续发力？\n创始团队给出了肯定的答案。曾熙曾表示，房多多有两个核心优势，第一是聚集了中国最大的经纪人群体且高频在线；第二是过去十年积累了提供系统解决方案的能力。“基于这两个优势，我们会坚定不移地去推动开发商更快地上线，帮助开发商建设上线所需要的系统和运营服务。”\n其二、房多多所拥有的核心能力壁垒有多高？\n业内做服务的不少，比如贝壳。目前，贝壳的生态内已经有将近300个品牌，4.7万家门店和近50万经纪人入驻。大量的数据让贝壳拥有强大的数据体系，可以为平台上的经纪人、门店经理还有平台服务人员进行服务，将作业流程线上化。从整体看，这种服务仍然是在房地产交易范围内的线上化操作系统。\n另外一类比较具备代表性的就是明源云。明源云从企业ERP起家，如今转型为营销SaaS服务商。主要服务对象就是房地产企业。\n可以说目前，主流的传统房地产企业都曾经使用过明源云的ERP系统。\n明源云的SaaS业务主要细分为云客、云链、云采购、云空间等，涵盖房地产开发商运行的各个环节。其中云客（也就是营销端SaaS系统）在疫情环境下增长迅猛。2020年，明源云迅速推出了掌上售楼，集合线上传播、数字展厅、线上开盘等功能。\n值得一提的是，2020年第四季度，房多多也推出房云SaaS。在功能上，房云SaaS旗下自渠宝产品上线门店智能推荐、商户动态、销售员网店、高意向访客触达提醒等全新功能，帮助案场销售在B端快速启动经纪商户。同时，私域营销工具也同步上线至房云APP，支持开发商发起直播、短视频获客、楼盘一键生成VR、C端用户在线带看等新玩法。\n大家的玩法相似，竞争也无疑会更加激烈。\n从产业端看，有贝壳、安居客等巨头，从SaaS服务看，还有从ERP转型而来的明源云和一众中小玩家。\n房多多还有机会吗？从前者看，房地产经纪呈现强者恒强的互联网属性，规模越大，则实力将越强；而从后者看，2020 年百强房企中，明源云合作了 97 家，客单价从 370 万提升到 610 万元。两个方面总结下来，竞争激烈的行业中，房多多的成绩单算不上优等生，未来需要更强的团队执行力和更快的速度，方有反超的机会。\n今年，房多多发生了一项重要人事变化，刘天旸正式担任房多多高级副总裁。而这位新任的副总裁，目前还任中原集团董事、中原地产（中国内地）副总裁、原萃总裁和几亩置业总裁。\n房多多是原萃的大股东，刘天旸的加盟有何深意？据了解，刘天旸将负责二手房及创新业务，包括二手房交易事业部、挺好住和好房汇业务部。\n二手房，极有可能是房多多继创新业务外下一个业务重点。\n2020年，房多多二手房累计闭环GMV为731亿，同比增长15.26%。而在2020年全年，全国二手房交易金额7.3万亿，创下了自2015年以来最大值的交易额。\n早在2014年，房多多曾投入了大量的资源在二手业务上。但业务发展并不顺利，房多多在2016年把二手房的业务全面地收缩掉，回到了新房主赛道。这一次，重提二手房业务，房多多真的准备好了吗？\n当前，房多多的市值为2.63亿美元，贝壳市值是其245倍。4月份，安居客向港交所提交了上市申请，房产交易市场将迎来又一个巨无霸。面临“破防”的房多多，需要更多变化应对挑战。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":808833056,"gmtCreate":1627567901575,"gmtModify":1703492568503,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808833056","repostId":"1125795700","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125795700","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627566816,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125795700?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 21:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Zoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125795700","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月29日，Zoom涨超6%，此前获克班资本上调评级，目标价428美元。\n\n克班资本预计，Zoom将从当前和未来线上和线下混合工作模式中受益，因此上调其评级至“增持”，目标价428美元。\n该行分析师S","content":"<p>July 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It rose by more than 6%, after being upgraded by Keban Capital with a target price of $428.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24c4da4dfac9844612ebc9029260679\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Keban Capital expects Zoom to benefit from current and future hybrid online and offline working models, so it upgraded its rating to \"overweight\" with a price target of $428.</p><p>Steve Enders, an analyst at the bank, said that video and cloud communications will be a long-term priority for enterprise IT departments to achieve hybrid working models. In addition, the upgrade is supported by surveys of the company's CIO and value-added resellers, as well as optimistic expectations for the company's acquisition of Five9. According to the data, Zoom previously spent $14.7 billion to acquire Five9, a cloud-based software company, to improve its attractiveness to business customers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom rises more than 6% after receiving a rating upgrade from Kerban Capital\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 21:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It rose by more than 6%, after being upgraded by Keban Capital with a target price of $428.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24c4da4dfac9844612ebc9029260679\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Keban Capital expects Zoom to benefit from current and future hybrid online and offline working models, so it upgraded its rating to \"overweight\" with a price target of $428.</p><p>Steve Enders, an analyst at the bank, said that video and cloud communications will be a long-term priority for enterprise IT departments to achieve hybrid working models. In addition, the upgrade is supported by surveys of the company's CIO and value-added resellers, as well as optimistic expectations for the company's acquisition of Five9. According to the data, Zoom previously spent $14.7 billion to acquire Five9, a cloud-based software company, to improve its attractiveness to business customers.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125795700","content_text":"7月29日，Zoom涨超6%，此前获克班资本上调评级，目标价428美元。\n\n克班资本预计，Zoom将从当前和未来线上和线下混合工作模式中受益，因此上调其评级至“增持”，目标价428美元。\n该行分析师Steve Enders表示，视频和云通信将是企业IT部门为实现混合工作模式所长期优先考虑的。此外，通过对该公司首席信息官和增值经销商的调查、以及对该公司收购Five9的乐观预期，都支持了此次评级上调。资料显示，Zoom此前斥资147亿美元收购基于云计算的软件公司Five9，以提高其对商业客户的吸引力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152529677,"gmtCreate":1625315405699,"gmtModify":1703740344446,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152529677","repostId":"2148167804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148167804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625284923,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148167804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Non-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148167804","media":"智通财经网","summary":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站","content":"<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 850,000 in June, higher than expected by 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force led to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Recently, the price of crude oil has stood at $75/barrel, and the oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down in the short term, and the inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the official start of discussion of Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official start of implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, and the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before Taper's formal discussion, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper's formal discussion, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-farm payrolls is higher than market expectations.</b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Despite better-than-expected non-farm data in June, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal as the number of unemployed people remains high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor participation rate is low.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continued to pick up, while the construction industry continued to drag down employment growth.</b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service sectors such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new jobs in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of school classes are worth looking forward to. This view is also the view of many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.</p><p><b>Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and inflation in the United States may remain high in stages.</b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down. At present, inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items. When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</p><p><b>The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.</b>As far as Taper is concerned during the year, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the normal level, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper will occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. As far as the rate hike is concerned since then, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the interest rate meeting in June, the hawkish voice of Fed officials has also increased obviously, and the market's expectation for an early rate hike has also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not excluded that the Fed will have an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields trend during the year: before Taper formally discusses, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper formally discusses, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope. It is expected that after the start of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p>text</p><p>According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, with an expected increase of 720,000. The previous value was revised from 559,000 to 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, the expected increase was 3.6%, and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and non-agricultural products are higher than market expectations</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.</b>In June, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-farm data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. In April, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and in May, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year. However, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits, which were lower than market expectations. In June, the number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly, which was higher than market expectations.</p><p><b>We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation.</b>First of all, due to the lack of labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply and the number of job vacancies is high. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they have stopped paying unemployment benefits, causing people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to need to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on starting work and social activities caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start working. Third, because the labor market is in short supply, enterprises generally raise their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% per annum, and the previous value increased by 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Although the non-farm data in June was better than expected, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal.</b>First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million people less than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Secondly, in June, the unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People' s willingness to seek jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that they are satisfied with and matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor participation rate in June was equal to that in May at only 61.6%, which is still at a historically low level, and the situation of short supply in the job market still exists in the short term. As a result, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about contracting the virus and the need to care for children and the elderly still constrain labour supply. However, as time goes on, vaccination rates continue to rise, schools open, and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growth</b></p><p><b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities.</b>Specifically, the number of employed people in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural employees in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; The number of employees in education and health services remained unchanged from the previous month at 59,000; New employment in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 quarter-on-quarter. In June, the number of employees in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Employment in financial services fell by about 0.1 thousand in June, making it the sector with the second largest decline in non-farm payrolls in June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to.</b>From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, travel restrictions continue to be relaxed in some areas, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which has continued to boost employment in the leisure and hospitality industries. In addition, the continued resumption of offline teaching in some areas, coupled with the increase of outpatient and health services, has led to a recovery of employment in both education and health services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with 414,000 fewer employees in the local government education sector, 168,000 fewer employees in the state government education sector and 255,000 fewer employees in the private education sector since February 2020, showing greater room for recovery in education sector employment in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor forces caring for children at home will increase, which will become an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Fed officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Renew as Oil Prices Surge</b></p><p><b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.</b>Since March, with the continuous economic recovery, the demand for crude oil is strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and the price of crude oil has soared all the way. Both WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices have risen from around $60/barrel in late March to more than $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month until December 2021. It was lower than the market expectation, and then put on hold due to the opposition of the UAE. WTI and Brent oil prices both stood at 75 USD/barrel, of which WTI oil price was the new high since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down.</b>On June 30th, the latest data of EIA showed that as of June 25th, the crude oil inventory decreased by 6.718 million barrels in that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels, which was a six-week consecutive decline. The continuous decline of crude oil inventory reflected the current large gap between crude oil supply and demand. Judging from this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still some differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help alleviate the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline president Ibrahim Raisi, the future Iranian nuclear negotiations will have big variables.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.</b>After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in the United States in May once again exceeded market expectations, and its main pull came from the transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the unseasonally adjusted CPI of the United States recorded 5% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the year-on-year reading of inflation in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect to CPI in May were transportation and energy. In May, the transportation sub-item of CPI in the United States grew by 20% year-on-year, and the energy sub-item grew by 28.5% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the increase of people's travel demand under the epidemic recovery. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target, and core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</b>Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the downward trend of market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18th and 21st, with the continuous rise of oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI detail; Secondly, the year-on-year trend of energy items in CPI sub-items is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and oil price-driven inflation, inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items will remain at a high level, and the price of used cars will remain high in the short term, which will also support the inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?</b></p><p><b>In terms of Taper during the year, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the level of normal times, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to be advanced.</b>Although the current inflation is at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, inflation is not the focus of the Fed for Taper during the year. At present, the Fed's focus is still on the job market. At present, the recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to the normal level. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find employment gradually increased. At the same time, with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care decreased. It is expected that the job market will accelerate its repair in July and August, which may trigger the Fed's discussion on Taper. Therefore, the non-farm report in June lets us keep our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the timing of official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the timing of announcing Taper and official implementation of Taper will happen at the end of this year and the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>As far as the rate hike after that, inflation will be the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, then it is not ruled out that the Fed will make an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</b>On the one hand, the June Fed dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and 13 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, there are three more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and six more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether rate hike is or not, it still reflects the change in attitude of Fed officials towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voice of Fed officials also increased obviously. The most representative one is that Bullard, president of St. Louis Fed, who is famous for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even seven policymakers, including himself, expected the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which was a natural reaction to inflation rising faster than expected. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller and Richmond Fed President Barkin all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the latest forecast of inflation by the Federal Reserve and the marginal change of Powell's expression of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, it is not excluded that the Federal Reserve will take action in advance to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of U.S. debt during the year?</b></p><p><b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin.</b>According to our previous report \"Bond Market Qiming Series 20210622-Why is US Treasury yields Diving?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend of US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, it was driven by excess liquidity and the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan. After the interest rate meeting, it was driven by the downward trend of interest rates caused by the downward trend of inflation expectations caused by excess liquidity. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to oscillate between 1.4%-1.6%.</p><p><b>According to the experience of the last round of Taper, it is expected that the US Treasury yields will rise slightly or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0% after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper.</b>On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony before Congress. During the question-and-answer session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, then we will reduce the size of purchases in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and there was the so-called \"taper tantrum\". After the sudden Taper signal appeared, the yield of U.S. bonds soared rapidly. From May 1, 2013, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the interest rate meeting in September, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month to a high point of 2.98%, with an upward trend of over 130bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope.</b>Powell said at the press conference after the interest rate meeting in June that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Kaplan, president of Ladas Fed, also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother, because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating the \"tapering panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Fed officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will go up, but it will not reach the range of 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm is improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Federal Reserve tighten ahead of schedule?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 850,000 in June, higher than expected by 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force led to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Recently, the price of crude oil has stood at $75/barrel, and the oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down in the short term, and the inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the official start of discussion of Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official start of implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, and the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before Taper's formal discussion, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper's formal discussion, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-farm payrolls is higher than market expectations.</b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation. Despite better-than-expected non-farm data in June, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal as the number of unemployed people remains high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor participation rate is low.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continued to pick up, while the construction industry continued to drag down employment growth.</b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service sectors such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new jobs in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of school classes are worth looking forward to. This view is also the view of many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.</p><p><b>Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and inflation in the United States may remain high in stages.</b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down. At present, inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items. When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</p><p><b>The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.</b>As far as Taper is concerned during the year, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the normal level, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper will occur at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. As far as the rate hike is concerned since then, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the interest rate meeting in June, the hawkish voice of Fed officials has also increased obviously, and the market's expectation for an early rate hike has also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not excluded that the Fed will have an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</p><p><b>US Treasury yields trend during the year: before Taper formally discusses, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before Taper formally discusses, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.</b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope. It is expected that after the start of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p><p>text</p><p>According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, with an expected increase of 720,000. The previous value was revised from 559,000 to 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, the expected increase was 3.6%, and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.</p><p><b>Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and non-agricultural products are higher than market expectations</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonal adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000. The number of new non-farm employment reached a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.</b>In June, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-farm data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. In April, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and in May, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year. However, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits, which were lower than market expectations. In June, the number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly, which was higher than market expectations.</p><p><b>We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the recovery of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than the market expectation.</b>First of all, due to the lack of labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply and the number of job vacancies is high. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they have stopped paying unemployment benefits, causing people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to need to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on starting work and social activities caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start working. Third, because the labor market is in short supply, enterprises generally raise their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% per annum, and the previous value increased by 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Although the non-farm data in June was better than expected, the job market is still a long way from returning to normal.</b>First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million people less than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Secondly, in June, the unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People' s willingness to seek jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that they are satisfied with and matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor participation rate in June was equal to that in May at only 61.6%, which is still at a historically low level, and the situation of short supply in the job market still exists in the short term. As a result, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about contracting the virus and the need to care for children and the elderly still constrain labour supply. However, as time goes on, vaccination rates continue to rise, schools open, and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.</p><p><b>The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growth</b></p><p><b>In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and commercial services, while the industries that lost more employment were construction and financial activities.</b>Specifically, the number of employed people in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural employees in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; The number of employees in education and health services remained unchanged from the previous month at 59,000; New employment in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 quarter-on-quarter. In June, the number of employees in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Employment in financial services fell by about 0.1 thousand in June, making it the sector with the second largest decline in non-farm payrolls in June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the relief of labor supply problems due to the increase of female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to.</b>From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, travel restrictions continue to be relaxed in some areas, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which has continued to boost employment in the leisure and hospitality industries. In addition, the continued resumption of offline teaching in some areas, coupled with the increase of outpatient and health services, has led to a recovery of employment in both education and health services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with 414,000 fewer employees in the local government education sector, 168,000 fewer employees in the state government education sector and 255,000 fewer employees in the private education sector since February 2020, showing greater room for recovery in education sector employment in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor forces caring for children at home will increase, which will become an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Fed officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Renew as Oil Prices Surge</b></p><p><b>Since March this year, under the strong demand and the market expectation that demand will continue to be strong, oil prices have begun to rise. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and the price of WTI crude oil stood at $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.</b>Since March, with the continuous economic recovery, the demand for crude oil is strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and the price of crude oil has soared all the way. Both WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices have risen from around $60/barrel in late March to more than $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month until December 2021. It was lower than the market expectation, and then put on hold due to the opposition of the UAE. WTI and Brent oil prices both stood at 75 USD/barrel, of which WTI oil price was the new high since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States has been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the strong demand for crude oil. Since May, the crude oil inventory has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting that the current gap between supply and demand is large, and the oil price may be easy to go up but difficult to go down.</b>On June 30th, the latest data of EIA showed that as of June 25th, the crude oil inventory decreased by 6.718 million barrels in that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels, which was a six-week consecutive decline. The continuous decline of crude oil inventory reflected the current large gap between crude oil supply and demand. Judging from this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still some differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help alleviate the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline president Ibrahim Raisi, the future Iranian nuclear negotiations will have big variables.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflation in the United States remains at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.</b>After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in the United States in May once again exceeded market expectations, and its main pull came from the transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the unseasonally adjusted CPI of the United States recorded 5% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, up 0.8pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the year-on-year reading of inflation in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect to CPI in May were transportation and energy. In May, the transportation sub-item of CPI in the United States grew by 20% year-on-year, and the energy sub-item grew by 28.5% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the increase of people's travel demand under the epidemic recovery. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target, and core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>When oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations will rise again, and inflation will remain high in stages.</b>Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the downward trend of market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18th and 21st, with the continuous rise of oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI detail; Secondly, the year-on-year trend of energy items in CPI sub-items is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and oil price-driven inflation, inflation in the United States may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items will remain at a high level, and the price of used cars will remain high in the short term, which will also support the inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?</b></p><p><b>In terms of Taper during the year, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to the level of normal times, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to be advanced.</b>Although the current inflation is at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, inflation is not the focus of the Fed for Taper during the year. At present, the Fed's focus is still on the job market. At present, the recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to the normal level. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find employment gradually increased. At the same time, with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care decreased. It is expected that the job market will accelerate its repair in July and August, which may trigger the Fed's discussion on Taper. Therefore, the non-farm report in June lets us keep our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced, and the timing of official discussion of Taper will be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the timing of announcing Taper and official implementation of Taper will happen at the end of this year and the beginning of next year.</p><p><b>As far as the rate hike after that, inflation will be the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, then it is not ruled out that the Fed will make an early rate hike before the end of 2022.</b>On the one hand, the June Fed dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and 13 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, there are three more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2022 and six more officials expecting to raise interest rates in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether rate hike is or not, it still reflects the change in attitude of Fed officials towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voice of Fed officials also increased obviously. The most representative one is that Bullard, president of St. Louis Fed, who is famous for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even seven policymakers, including himself, expected the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which was a natural reaction to inflation rising faster than expected. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller and Richmond Fed President Barkin all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the latest forecast of inflation by the Federal Reserve and the marginal change of Powell's expression of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, it is not excluded that the Federal Reserve will take action in advance to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of U.S. debt during the year?</b></p><p><b>With the Fed's monetary policy shift, we expect U.S. bonds to remain volatile between 1.4%-1.6% before the Taper discussions officially begin.</b>According to our previous report \"Bond Market Qiming Series 20210622-Why is US Treasury yields Diving?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend of US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, it was driven by excess liquidity and the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan. After the interest rate meeting, it was driven by the downward trend of interest rates caused by the downward trend of inflation expectations caused by excess liquidity. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to oscillate between 1.4%-1.6%.</p><p><b>According to the experience of the last round of Taper, it is expected that the US Treasury yields will rise slightly or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0% after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper.</b>On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony before Congress. During the question-and-answer session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, then we will reduce the size of purchases in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and there was the so-called \"taper tantrum\". After the sudden Taper signal appeared, the yield of U.S. bonds soared rapidly. From May 1, 2013, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the interest rate meeting in September, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month to a high point of 2.98%, with an upward trend of over 130bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"shrinking panic\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that US Treasury yields will not have a large upward slope.</b>Powell said at the press conference after the interest rate meeting in June that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Kaplan, president of Ladas Fed, also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother, because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating the \"tapering panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Fed officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will go up, but it will not reach the range of 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2148167804","content_text":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站上75美元/桶，油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。在美联储收紧的节奏上，预计Taper进程或不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初，加息进程或将提前至2022年底。美债利率年内走势上，Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农就业人数高于市场预期。从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但由于失业人数仍然较多、失业率上升以及劳动参与率处于低位，就业市场距离恢复到正常还有较远距离。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累就业增长。分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。美国当前通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。\n美联储收紧节奏：预计Taper进程或不会提前，加息进程或将提前。就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，在6月议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，市场对于提前加息的预期也有所增加，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息的可能。\n美债利率年内走势：Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。预计在Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。\n正文\n美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增85万人，预期增72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人;6月失业率为5.9%，预期为5.7%，前值为5.8%;6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，预期增3.6%，前值增2%;6月劳动参与率为61.6%，前值为61.6%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农高于市场预期\n从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。6月美国非农新增就业人数高于前值，同时今年4月和5月的非农数据分别经历了下修和上修，4月非农新增就业人数从27.8万人下修至26.9万人，5月非农新增就业人数从55.9万人上修至58.3万人。从非农新增就业人数走势来看，随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，今年1月-3月，非农新增就业人数逐月增加，但是4月和5月非农新增就业人数受到失业救济金发放等影响，均低于市场预期，6月非农新增就业人数增长强劲，高于市场预期。\n我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。首先，由于此前失业救济金的发放导致劳动力供给不足，就业市场供不应求，职位空缺数较多。6月以来，美国大部分州宣布停止失业救济金的发放，导致因领取失业救济金而不工作的民众需要重新找到工作。其次，疫苗接种率不断增加使得因疫情造成的开工和社交限制逐渐被解除，增加民众开始工作的意愿。再次，由于劳动力市场供不应求，企业普遍提升工资水平，6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，前值增2%，这也进一步吸引人们重回劳动力市场。\n\n尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但就业市场距离恢复正常还有较远距离。首先，从就业人数上看，当前较2020年2月疫情以前的就业人数水平仍少近680万人。其次，6月失业率较此前有所上升，从5.6%上升至5.9%，我们认为这可能是暂时的摩擦性失业，民众求职意愿提升，寻找工作的人开始增加，但是找到自己满意同时技能匹配的工作仍需一段时间，因此失业率在6月有所上升。再次，6月的劳动参与率与5月相等仅为61.6%，仍然处于历史低位，就业市场供不应求的状况短期仍然存在。因此，当前就业市场还远未复苏到正常水平，对于感染病毒的担忧、照顾子女和老人的需求仍然制约着劳动力供给。不过，随着时间推移，疫苗接种率继续提升、学校开学、越来越多的州停发失业救济金，劳动力市场或将会得到进一步修复。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累增长\n分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。具体来看，6月休闲和酒店业就业人数为34.3万人，相较5月环比增加3.7万人，仍然为6月非农新增人数第一的行业。6月政府部门新增就业人数为18.8万人，环比增加约12.1万人;教育和保健服务就业人数环比不变，保持为5.9万人;专业和商业服务新增就业人数环比增加约3.6万人。6月建筑业就业人数减少约0.7万人，为6月非农就业人数减少最多的行业;6月金融服务就业人数减少约0.1万人，为6月非农就业人数减少第二多的行业。\n\n中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待。从行业数据上来看，随着更多人完成疫苗接种，部分地区继续放宽出行限制，更多人恢复旅游和外出就餐活动，对休闲和酒店业的就业产生持续的提振。此外，一些地区继续恢复线下教学，叠加门诊与保健服务的增加，导致教育和保健服务业就业人数均有所恢复。尽管如此，教育就业仍然处于低位，自2020年2月以来，地方政府教育部门的就业人数减少了41.4万人，州政府教育部门的就业人数减少了16.8万人，私立教育部门的就业人数减少了25.5万人，显示教育部门就业在接下来经济生活正常化中的更大恢复空间。不仅如此，随着教育部门就业和线下课程的恢复，大量居家看护儿童的以女性为主的劳动力将会增加，成为中期非农就业新增的一大重要潜力，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价飙升，通胀预期再起\n今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。3月开始，随着经济持续复苏，原油需求强劲，尽管OPEC+不断增产，但是原油供需缺口仍存，原油价格一路飙升，WTI原油和布油价格均从3月下旬的60美元/桶附近一路走上70美元/桶以上。本周四，OPEC+早先初步达成协议，2021年12月前平均每月增产40万桶/日。低于市场预期，后又因阿联酋反对而搁置，WTI和布油价格双双站上75美元/桶，其中WTI油价为2018年10月以来的新高。\n\n今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。6月30日，EIA最新数据显示，截至6月25日，当周原油库存减少671.8万桶，降幅高于预期的385万桶，为连续6周下降，连续下降的原油库存反映当前原油供需缺口较大。从本周OPEC+会议情况来看，OPEC+内部对于是否增产仍然存在一定分歧，同时，即便OPEC+对于增产达成协议，每月增加的原油产量也未必能够填补当前较大的供需缺口，因此短期来看，原油价格或将维持高位。目前最大变量或在伊核谈判，若短期内伊核谈判顺利，伊朗恢复原油供给和出口，将有助于缓解油价上行趋势;若短期内谈判不顺利，那么在新任强硬派总统易卜拉欣·莱希领导下，未来伊核谈判将有较大变数。\n\n美国通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在4月通胀数据远超市场预期后，美国5月通胀数据再次超市场预期，其主要拉动来自于交通运输和能源分项。5月美国未季调CPI同比录得5%，较前值4.2%上涨0.8pct，未季调核心CPI同比录得3.8%，较前值3%上涨0.8pct。一方面，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是5月通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因。另一方面，从CPI分项上来看，给5月份CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是交通运输和能源项，5月美国CPI交通运输分项同比增速达20%，能源分项同比增速高达28.5%，主要反映了疫情修复下人们出行需求的增加。与此同时，美联储更加关心的PCE指标也创历史新高，5月PCE同比增3.9%，远高于美联储2%的通胀目标，核心PCE同比增3.4%，为1992年以来的新高。\n\n在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。在6月美联储议息会议偏鹰派态度下，市场通胀预期下行带动美债利率不升反降，在6月18日和21日到达阶段性低点后，近期随着油价连续上行，通胀预期再次抬头。从油价和通胀的关系来看，首先，油价与美国CPI细项中能源类商品的走势基本正相关;其次，CPI分项中能源项同比与CPI总体同比走势高度吻合。因此，在通胀预期上行和油价带动通胀的共同作用下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。同时，交通运输项、住房项维持高位，二手车价格短期内居高不下，同样会对通胀水平有所支撑。\n\n美联储会提前收紧吗?\n就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前。虽然当前通胀位于高位，并将在未来一定时间内维持高位，但是对于年内的Taper而言，通胀并不是美联储关注的重点。美联储当前关注的重点仍是就业市场，当前就业市场复苏进程较为稳定，但远未恢复到正常时期水平。在6月大部分州停发失业救济金后，居民就业意愿逐渐提升，同时叠加9月学校复学，看护小孩需求降低，预计就业市场或将在7、8月加速修复，届时或将触发美联储对于Taper的讨论。因此，6月的非农报告让我们保持此前的判断，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。\n就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息。一方面，6月美联储点阵图显示所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位官员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息，相比3月点阵图，预计2022年加息的官员增加3人，预计2023年加息的官员增加6人。尽管点阵图和是否加息并无直接联系，但是依然反映出美联储官员对于加息态度的变化。另一方面，在议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，最具代表性的是以鸽派著称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德突然转鹰，他表示，连他本人在内的7位政策制定者均预计美联储将采取激进的措施来遏制通胀，这是对通胀上升快于预期的自然反应。此外，达拉斯联储主席卡普兰、美联储理事沃勒、里士满联储主席巴尔金近期均发表鹰派言论。根据美联储对于通胀的最新预测以及鲍威尔对于通胀表述的边际变化，如果通胀以及通胀预期持续走高，那么不排除美联储将提前采取行动遏制通胀(即在2022年底前加息)的可能。\n\n年内美债走势如何?\n随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。根据我们此前的报告《债市启明系列20210622—美债利率为何跳水?》(2021-06-22)，近期美债利率的下行分为两个阶段，美联储6月议息会议之前是流动性过剩和拜登基建计划受阻推动的下行，议息会议之后是流动性过剩下通胀预期下行引发的利率下行。短期而言，预计美债利率将在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。\n而根据上一轮Taper经验，在本轮Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，预计美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。2013年5月22日，时任美联储主席伯南克在国会发表证词，在提问环节，伯南克表示，如果就业市场持续改善，并且我们对改善势头的持续有信心，那么将在未来几次会议上减少购买规模。在伯南克的讲话和议息会议纪要共同冲击下，市场反应剧烈，出现了所谓的“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)”。在突如其来的Taper信号出现后，美债收益率快速大幅飙升，从2013年5月1日起，10年期美债收益率开始迅速飙升，到9月议息会议前夕已由月初的1.66%升至高点2.98%，上行超130bps。\n\n就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。鲍威尔在6月议息会议后的发布会上表示，会尽所能避免市场出现过度反应，在做出任何决定之前会提前告知市场。同时，拉达斯联储主席卡普兰也在近日表示，美联储将逐步减少资产购买，但这次将更加顺利，因为投资者已经知道该措施正被商议中，美联储这次将避免制造2013年的“缩减恐慌”。因此，我们认为在美联储正式释放Taper讨论信号后，美债利率将会有所上行，但是不会出现2013年高达130bps的幅度，或将达到1.8%-2.0%的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SImain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125114314,"gmtCreate":1624663943938,"gmtModify":1703842939081,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125114314","repostId":"2146105079","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146105079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624661887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146105079?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 06:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146105079","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，近日，耐克公布了2021财年第四财季及全年财报。财报公布后，多家投行上调了对该公司的目标价。该分析师目前认为，耐克股价未来三年的上涨潜力或将达到250美元以上。RBC Capital分析师Beth Reed将耐克目标价由165美元上调至183美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。Murphy表示，其提高了对耐克的业绩预期，并称该公司第四季度的业绩“是多种战略杠杆共同作用的结果”。Kummetz表示，该公司第四季度业绩远超预期。","content":"<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Announced the fourth fiscal quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter increased by 96% year-on-year to US $12.3 billion, compared with market expectations of US $11.01 billion and US $6.313 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $1.509 billion, compared with expectations of US $819 million, compared with a loss of US $790 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $0.93, market expectations for earnings per share of US $0.51, and losses per share of US $0.51 in the same period last year, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>After the financial report was announced, a number of investment banks raised their target prices for the company.</p><p><b>Baird analyst Jonathan Komp raised Nike's target price from $150 to $192, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst noted that Nike's fourth-quarter results almost doubled, reflecting the company's strong momentum in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and better-than-expected performance in Greater China. The analyst currently believes that the upside potential of Nike's stock price in the next three years may reach more than $250.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analyst Paul Trussell raised Nike's target price from $161 to $179 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Trussell pointed out that Nike released a \"strong\" fourth-quarter performance report, which showed that the company's revenue growth and profitability in China and North America were better than expected, indicating that the overall market is developing healthily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jay Sole raised Nike's target price from $170 to $185 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>The analyst said in the report that Nike's fourth-quarter profit performance was outstanding and the company's guidance for fiscal 2022 was \"well above market expectations,\" highlighting the company's ability to achieve substantial earnings growth despite the challenges facing in the Chinese market. The benefits of Nike's transformation into a digital, direct-to-consumer (DTC) company are \"just beginning to show,\" Sole adds.</p><p><b>RBC Capital analyst Beth Reed raised Nike's target price from $165 to $183, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst said Nike reported \"strong\" fourth-quarter results and raised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast from high single digits to low double digits, driven by digital markets, women's apparel products, apparel business, Jordan brand, and international sales. Notably, Nike has also increased its sales target for DTC to 60% from the current 40%, Reed added.</p><p><b>Piper Sandler analyst Erin Murphy raised Nike's target price from $170 to $174 and maintained an \"overweight\" rating.</b>Murphy said it raised its performance expectations for Nike and called the company's fourth-quarter results \"the result of a combination of multiple strategic levers.\"</p><p><b>BMO Capital analyst Simeon Siegel raised Nike's target price from $160 to $174, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst pointed out that Nike's performance almost all exceeded expectations, and the company's overall profit margin has also improved significantly as its EBIT profit margin has reached its highest level in \"years\". Siegel believes the company's size provides it with a long-term competitive advantage.</p><p><b>Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz raised Nike's target price from $167 to $175 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Kummetz said the company's fourth-quarter results far beat expectations. On the basis of the past two years, the company's sales increased by 21%, including a 29% increase in North America. He said Nike's results \"show its tremendous momentum,\" while its guidance for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2025 \"shows its tremendous confidence.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA number of investment banks raised Nike's target price, reaching a maximum of $192\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 06:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Announced the fourth fiscal quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter increased by 96% year-on-year to US $12.3 billion, compared with market expectations of US $11.01 billion and US $6.313 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $1.509 billion, compared with expectations of US $819 million, compared with a loss of US $790 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $0.93, market expectations for earnings per share of US $0.51, and losses per share of US $0.51 in the same period last year, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>After the financial report was announced, a number of investment banks raised their target prices for the company.</p><p><b>Baird analyst Jonathan Komp raised Nike's target price from $150 to $192, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst noted that Nike's fourth-quarter results almost doubled, reflecting the company's strong momentum in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and better-than-expected performance in Greater China. The analyst currently believes that the upside potential of Nike's stock price in the next three years may reach more than $250.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analyst Paul Trussell raised Nike's target price from $161 to $179 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Trussell pointed out that Nike released a \"strong\" fourth-quarter performance report, which showed that the company's revenue growth and profitability in China and North America were better than expected, indicating that the overall market is developing healthily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jay Sole raised Nike's target price from $170 to $185 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>The analyst said in the report that Nike's fourth-quarter profit performance was outstanding and the company's guidance for fiscal 2022 was \"well above market expectations,\" highlighting the company's ability to achieve substantial earnings growth despite the challenges facing in the Chinese market. The benefits of Nike's transformation into a digital, direct-to-consumer (DTC) company are \"just beginning to show,\" Sole adds.</p><p><b>RBC Capital analyst Beth Reed raised Nike's target price from $165 to $183, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst said Nike reported \"strong\" fourth-quarter results and raised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast from high single digits to low double digits, driven by digital markets, women's apparel products, apparel business, Jordan brand, and international sales. Notably, Nike has also increased its sales target for DTC to 60% from the current 40%, Reed added.</p><p><b>Piper Sandler analyst Erin Murphy raised Nike's target price from $170 to $174 and maintained an \"overweight\" rating.</b>Murphy said it raised its performance expectations for Nike and called the company's fourth-quarter results \"the result of a combination of multiple strategic levers.\"</p><p><b>BMO Capital analyst Simeon Siegel raised Nike's target price from $160 to $174, maintaining an \"outperform\" rating.</b>The analyst pointed out that Nike's performance almost all exceeded expectations, and the company's overall profit margin has also improved significantly as its EBIT profit margin has reached its highest level in \"years\". Siegel believes the company's size provides it with a long-term competitive advantage.</p><p><b>Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz raised Nike's target price from $167 to $175 and maintained a \"buy\" rating.</b>Kummetz said the company's fourth-quarter results far beat expectations. On the basis of the past two years, the company's sales increased by 21%, including a 29% increase in North America. He said Nike's results \"show its tremendous momentum,\" while its guidance for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2025 \"shows its tremendous confidence.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501577.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e7d64fe74200def49d40052d7e96014","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501577.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146105079","content_text":"近日，耐克公布了2021财年第四财季及全年财报。财报显示，公司四财季营收同比增长96%至123亿美元，市场预期110.1亿美元，去年同期63.13亿美元；净利润为15.09亿美元，预期为8.19亿美元，去年同期为亏损7.9亿美元；每股盈利0.93美元，市场预期每股盈利0.51美元，去年同期每股亏损0.51美元，均超出市场预期。\n财报公布后，多家投行上调了对该公司的目标价。\nBaird分析师Jonathan Komp将耐克目标价由150美元上调至192美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师指出，耐克第四季度业绩几乎翻了一番，这反映出了该公司在北美、欧洲、中东和非洲地区的强劲势头，以及在大中华地区优于预期的表现。该分析师目前认为，耐克股价未来三年的上涨潜力或将达到250美元以上。\n德意志银行分析师Paul Trussell将耐克目标价由161美元上调至179美元，维持“买入”评级。Trussell指出，耐克发布了一份“强劲”的第四季度业绩报告，报告显示该公司在中国和北美市场的营收增长和盈利能力均优于预期，这表明整体市场正健康发展。\n瑞银分析师Jay Sole将耐克目标价由170美元上调至185美元，维持“买入”评级。该分析师在报告表示，耐克第四季度利润表现出色，并且该公司对2022财年的业绩指引“远高于市场预期”，这突显出了该公司尽管在中国市场面临挑战，但其仍有能力实现大幅盈利增长。Sole补充道，耐克转型为一家数字化、直接面向消费者(DTC)的公司所带来的好处“才刚刚开始显现”。\nRBC Capital分析师Beth Reed将耐克目标价由165美元上调至183美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师表示，耐克公布了“强劲”的第四季度业绩，并在数字市场、女装产品、服装业务、乔丹品牌以及国际销售的推动下，将其2025财年的营收增长预期从高单位数上调至低双位数。Reed补充道，值得注意的是，耐克还将DTC的销售目标从目前的40%提高到60%。\nPiper Sandler分析师Erin Murphy将耐克目标价由170美元上调至174美元，维持“增持”评级。Murphy表示，其提高了对耐克的业绩预期，并称该公司第四季度的业绩“是多种战略杠杆共同作用的结果”。\nBMO Capital分析师Simeon Siegel将耐克目标价由160美元上调至174美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该分析师指出，耐克业绩表现几乎全部超出预期，并且，由于其EBIT利润率达到了“多年来”的最高水平，公司整体利润率也得到了显著提升。Siegel认为，该公司的规模为其提供了长期竞争优势。\nPivotal Research分析师Mitch Kummetz将耐克目标价由167美元上调至175美元，维持“买入”评级。Kummetz表示，该公司第四季度业绩远超预期。在过去两年的基础上，该公司的销售额增长了21%，其中北美地区的销售额增长了29%。他表示，耐克的业绩“显示出其巨大的势头”，而2022财年和2025财年的业绩指引“显示出了其极大的信心”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154705347,"gmtCreate":1625543324989,"gmtModify":1703743388085,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154705347","repostId":"1160188319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160188319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625542742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160188319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 11:39","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"JD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160188319","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日，京东物流盘中跳水，现跌超7%，报37.6港元。","content":"<p>On July 6,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Intraday diving, now down more than 7% to HK$ 37.6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a135aa9846012412cf91022cb1ffcfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.COM Logistics intraday dive, now down more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 11:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 6,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Intraday diving, now down more than 7% to HK$ 37.6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a135aa9846012412cf91022cb1ffcfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160188319","content_text":"7月6日，京东物流盘中跳水，现跌超7%，报37.6港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9,"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120125424,"gmtCreate":1624316353468,"gmtModify":1703833070498,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120125424","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162224595,"gmtCreate":1624065517017,"gmtModify":1703827946936,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162224595","repostId":"1145549454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188219592,"gmtCreate":1623446643016,"gmtModify":1704203810989,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188219592","repostId":"1156959915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156959915","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623429803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156959915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 00:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156959915","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月12日，BOSS直聘登陆纳斯达克，首日开涨75%。\n老虎证券作为互联网承销商，与高盛、摩根士丹利、UBS、华兴、海通等国际知名大行同列BOSS直聘招股书封面，展现出老虎证券作为头部互联网科","content":"<p>On June 12th, Beijing time, BOSS directly hired and landed on Nasdaq, which rose by 75% on the first day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57551fd25362c75885fbb928efe43f8a\"></p><p>As an Internet underwriter, Tiger Brokers is listed on the cover of BOSS direct prospectus with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Huaxing, Haitong and other internationally renowned banks, showing the influence of Tiger Brokers as the head Internet technology investment bank.<br></p><p><br></p><p>According to the latest prospectus information, BOSS Direct Recruitment will publicly issue 48 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an issue price of US$19 per share, raising about US$912 million, and the total market value was US$7.599 billion at the opening.</p><p>This valuation has exceeded the sum of Worry-Free Future, which has a public valuation of US$5 billion, and Zhaopin Recruitment, which can only be valued at US$1.7 billion in the private equity fund market due to delisting, making it the highest valued Chinese recruitment platform.</p><p>Of course, being able to reach such a high valuation shows to some extent that BOSS Direct Recruitment also has its own financial performance and has been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of BOSS Direct Recruitment can be roughly summarized as follows: strong revenue growth momentum; Gross profit growth was strong and gross margin remained stable; Although the operating profit is low, it has turned losses into profits; Cash flow from operations skyrocketed.</p><p>Specifically, BOSS Direct Recruitment's revenue in 2020 reached 298 million USD, a 95.4% increase from 152 million USD in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue reached 120 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 178.9%.</p><p>BOSS Direct Gross Profit was US$261 million in 2020, an increase of 98.7% from US$131 million in 2019, and reached US$104 million in the first quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 178.4%. Meanwhile, in 2019, 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin remained almost unchanged at 86.20%, 87.65% and 86.45%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment achieved operating profit of $392,800, $1,356,000, and $35,400,000, respectively, with operating profit margins of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. During the same period, the company's net losses were $112 million, $188 million and $40.972 million, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Hire cash flow from operations was-16.1318 million, 60.6760 million, and 25.235 million, respectively.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment held cash of $626 million and liabilities of $332 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company had free cash flow of $102 million.</p><p><b>Study Analysis</b></p><p>BOSS Direct Recruitment hopes to gain support from the US capital market to help them continue to expand in the Chinese market.</p><p>From the company's financial performance, their revenue and gross profit margin have grown rapidly, and the operational level has turned losses into profits. Free cash flow for the year ended March 31, 2021 was more than $101 million, which was impressive.</p><p>In China, providing online recruitment services for job seekers and employers has a huge market volume and promising prospects.</p><p>Goldman Sachs is the leading underwriter of this transaction. In the past twelve months, the company's IPO shares underwritten by the company have achieved an average return of 42.9%, which is in the middle of the comparison of all major underwriters in the same period.</p><p>The number one risk facing BOSS Direct hiring is that the company may face a series of competitive pressures, such as talent networks or other mainstream international recruitment companies entering their market, which, once realized, will threaten their growth prospects or force them to significantly increase marketing spending and suppress profitability.</p><p>All kinds of online businesses with high profit margins in China often end up attracting a large number of competitors, and the main means of competition is to fight a price war, which is obviously not good news for the future returns of stocks.</p><p>From the valuation point of view, the price offered by BOSS Direct for US IPO investors means that the company's enterprise value-to-revenue ratio is about 19.2. Although this figure is higher than the current overall level of software-as-a-service stocks, the revenue growth momentum of BOSS Direct is stronger. They have crossed the profit threshold at the operational level and generated considerable free cash flow.</p><p>Therefore, although the price of BOSS Direct Recruitment IPO is not cheap, it is still worth paying attention to investors interested in the growth prospects of China's online recruitment market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361ada34c84eeaafbb2e860b6eb0db6f\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Brokers helped BOSS Direct Recruitment land on Nasdaq, opening up 75% on the first day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-12 00:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 12th, Beijing time, BOSS directly hired and landed on Nasdaq, which rose by 75% on the first day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57551fd25362c75885fbb928efe43f8a\"></p><p>As an Internet underwriter, Tiger Brokers is listed on the cover of BOSS direct prospectus with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Huaxing, Haitong and other internationally renowned banks, showing the influence of Tiger Brokers as the head Internet technology investment bank.<br></p><p><br></p><p>According to the latest prospectus information, BOSS Direct Recruitment will publicly issue 48 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an issue price of US$19 per share, raising about US$912 million, and the total market value was US$7.599 billion at the opening.</p><p>This valuation has exceeded the sum of Worry-Free Future, which has a public valuation of US$5 billion, and Zhaopin Recruitment, which can only be valued at US$1.7 billion in the private equity fund market due to delisting, making it the highest valued Chinese recruitment platform.</p><p>Of course, being able to reach such a high valuation shows to some extent that BOSS Direct Recruitment also has its own financial performance and has been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of BOSS Direct Recruitment can be roughly summarized as follows: strong revenue growth momentum; Gross profit growth was strong and gross margin remained stable; Although the operating profit is low, it has turned losses into profits; Cash flow from operations skyrocketed.</p><p>Specifically, BOSS Direct Recruitment's revenue in 2020 reached 298 million USD, a 95.4% increase from 152 million USD in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue reached 120 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 178.9%.</p><p>BOSS Direct Gross Profit was US$261 million in 2020, an increase of 98.7% from US$131 million in 2019, and reached US$104 million in the first quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 178.4%. Meanwhile, in 2019, 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin remained almost unchanged at 86.20%, 87.65% and 86.45%, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment achieved operating profit of $392,800, $1,356,000, and $35,400,000, respectively, with operating profit margins of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. During the same period, the company's net losses were $112 million, $188 million and $40.972 million, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021, BOSS Direct Hire cash flow from operations was-16.1318 million, 60.6760 million, and 25.235 million, respectively.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, BOSS Direct Recruitment held cash of $626 million and liabilities of $332 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company had free cash flow of $102 million.</p><p><b>Study Analysis</b></p><p>BOSS Direct Recruitment hopes to gain support from the US capital market to help them continue to expand in the Chinese market.</p><p>From the company's financial performance, their revenue and gross profit margin have grown rapidly, and the operational level has turned losses into profits. Free cash flow for the year ended March 31, 2021 was more than $101 million, which was impressive.</p><p>In China, providing online recruitment services for job seekers and employers has a huge market volume and promising prospects.</p><p>Goldman Sachs is the leading underwriter of this transaction. In the past twelve months, the company's IPO shares underwritten by the company have achieved an average return of 42.9%, which is in the middle of the comparison of all major underwriters in the same period.</p><p>The number one risk facing BOSS Direct hiring is that the company may face a series of competitive pressures, such as talent networks or other mainstream international recruitment companies entering their market, which, once realized, will threaten their growth prospects or force them to significantly increase marketing spending and suppress profitability.</p><p>All kinds of online businesses with high profit margins in China often end up attracting a large number of competitors, and the main means of competition is to fight a price war, which is obviously not good news for the future returns of stocks.</p><p>From the valuation point of view, the price offered by BOSS Direct for US IPO investors means that the company's enterprise value-to-revenue ratio is about 19.2. Although this figure is higher than the current overall level of software-as-a-service stocks, the revenue growth momentum of BOSS Direct is stronger. They have crossed the profit threshold at the operational level and generated considerable free cash flow.</p><p>Therefore, although the price of BOSS Direct Recruitment IPO is not cheap, it is still worth paying attention to investors interested in the growth prospects of China's online recruitment market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361ada34c84eeaafbb2e860b6eb0db6f\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aee31599ee7010691cc73f0ff8ac182","relate_stocks":{"BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156959915","content_text":"北京时间6月12日，BOSS直聘登陆纳斯达克，首日开涨75%。\n老虎证券作为互联网承销商，与高盛、摩根士丹利、UBS、华兴、海通等国际知名大行同列BOSS直聘招股书封面，展现出老虎证券作为头部互联网科技投行的影响力。\n\n根据最新招股书信息显示，BOSS直聘将公开发行4800万股美国存托股份（ADS），发行价定为每股19美元，募资约9.12亿美元，总市值开盘时是75.99亿美元。\n而这个估值已经超过公开估值50亿美元的前程无忧和由于退市只能在私募基金市场有估值17亿美元的智联招聘之和，成为估值最高的中国招聘平台。\n当然，能达到如此高额的估值，在一定程度上表明BOSS直聘也有着自己的在财务上的表现得到了资本市场的认可。\n财务表现\nBOSS直聘近期的财务表现大约可以做如下概括：营收增长势头强劲；毛利润增长强劲，毛利润率保持稳定；运营利润虽然低，但是已经实现了扭亏为盈；运营现金流猛增。\n具体而言，BOSS直聘2020年营收达到了2.98亿美元，较之2019年的1.52亿美元猛增95.4%之多，而2021年第一季度，公司营收就达到了1.20亿美元，同比增幅更高达178.9%。\nBOSS直聘毛利润2020年为2.61亿美元，较之2019年的1.31亿美元增长98.7%，而2021年第一季度达到1.04亿美元，同比增幅高达178.4%。与此同时，在2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度当中，公司毛利润率分别为86.20%、87.65%和86.45%，几乎保持不变。\n2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度，BOSS直聘分别实现运营利润39.28万美元、135.60万美元和35、40万美元，运营利润率分别为0.3%、0.5%和0.3%。同期内，公司净亏损分别为1.12亿美元、1.88亿美元和4097.20万美元。\n2019年、2020年和2021年第一季度，BOSS直聘运营现金流分别为-1613.18万美元、6067.60万美元和2523.50万美元。\n截至2021年3月31日，BOSS直聘持有现金6.26亿美元，负债3.32亿美元。截至2021年3月31日的十二个月内，公司自由现金流为1.02亿美元。\n研究分析\nBOSS直聘希望获得美国资本市场的支持，帮助他们在中国市场上继续扩张。\n从公司的财务表现看，他们营收和毛利润率增长迅猛，运营层面已经实现扭亏为盈。截至2021年3月31日的自由现金流超过1.01亿美元，令人印象深刻。\n在中国，为求职者和雇主提供线上招聘服务，市场体量是很巨大的，前景是很可观的。\n高盛是本次交易的领衔承销商，在过去十二个月时间内，该公司领衔承销的IPO股票，平均回报率为42.9%，在所有主要承销商同期业绩的比较当中位于中游水平。\nBOSS直聘面前的头号风险是，该公司可能会面对一系列竞争压力，比如人才网络，或者其他主流国际招聘公司进入他们所在的市场，而这些一旦成为现实，就将威胁到他们的增长前景，或者是迫使他们大幅提升营销支出，打压盈利能力。\n中国各种利润率较高的线上业务，往往最终都会吸引大量竞争者，而最主要的竞争手段就是大打价格战，而这对于股票未来的回报显然不是什么好消息。\n从估值角度看，BOSS直聘为美国IPO投资者开出的价格意味着公司企业价值营收比率为19.2左右，虽然这一数字高于软件即服务股票当前的总体水平，但是BOSS直聘的营收增长势头更为强劲，他们已经在运营层面越过盈利门槛，并且产生了可观的自由现金流。\n因此，虽然BOSS直聘IPO价格称不上低廉，但是对于那些有意于中国线上招聘市场成长前景的投资者而言，这一股票还是值得关注的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910780345,"gmtCreate":1663683573587,"gmtModify":1676537315083,"author":{"id":"3586104114548426","authorId":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","idStr":"3586104114548426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910780345","repostId":"661391372","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":661391372,"gmtCreate":1663682263898,"gmtModify":1676537314935,"author":{"id":"3529363284825114","authorId":"3529363284825114","name":"杨德龙说财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde3fe8d8fdba3297698dcfdc7297f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529363284825114","idStr":"3529363284825114"},"themes":[],"title":"楊德龍：現在是佈局四季度行情的最佳時間窗口","htmlText":"大盤出現震盪反彈走勢，特別是新能源板塊表現較爲突出，形成了比較強的反彈趨勢，結束了之前市場比較大的調整。近期大盤調整已經具備了接近尾聲的跡象，從幾個方面可以看出來。一個就是市場的成交量萎縮比較厲害，基本上和今年高峯期上萬億的成交相比，成交量已經萎縮到5000億到6000億左右，這個成交量一般是地量見地價，這是市場見底的一個重要信號。第二個就是市場的估值上處於比較低的位置，滬深兩市主要的估值均處於歷史上比較低的水平，這從估值上來看已經是基本調整到位。第三的話就是說從新基金的發行量來看，這段時間新基金髮行量整體來看是比較低迷的，這也表明新資金入場意願不強，因爲市場從6月份開始就持續調整了三個月的時間，所以在之前我提出9月份可能是下半年市場的一個拐點，9月份也是佈局四季度行情的一個重要的窗口。對於四季度的行情，我認爲大家可以更加積極樂觀一點。雖然影響市場的一些利空因素沒有完全消除，但是出現了邊際改善。比方說第一個就是美聯儲加息的影響，本週美聯儲9月份的議息可能會如期加息75個基點，主要是因爲美國現在通脹率依然比較高。8月份CPI高達8.3%，雖然和7月份8.5%相比略有下降，但是下降幅度並不大，核心通脹率依然比較高，美聯儲可能會堅定加息以抗通脹，但是其實對市場的影響已經在之前的下跌中得到了充分的反應，如果9月21號美聯儲議息會議加息75個基點，美國的基準利率將會回升到3%。根據現在華爾街一致預期，加息最高預期就是基準利率提到4%到4.4%，也就意味着這一次加息之後最多還有2到3次加息，之後就會停止加息，甚至明年如果考慮到經濟增速下降，股市下跌的影響，美聯儲有可能會改變加息週期，甚至進入到降息週期，所以對於市場的影響在四季度正在減少。第二的話就是我國經濟面在復甦，上半年國務院出臺了六大方面33條刺激經濟的政策，這段時間國常會又再次出臺了接續的19項穩經濟增長的政策。這一系列政策在三","listText":"大盤出現震盪反彈走勢，特別是新能源板塊表現較爲突出，形成了比較強的反彈趨勢，結束了之前市場比較大的調整。近期大盤調整已經具備了接近尾聲的跡象，從幾個方面可以看出來。一個就是市場的成交量萎縮比較厲害，基本上和今年高峯期上萬億的成交相比，成交量已經萎縮到5000億到6000億左右，這個成交量一般是地量見地價，這是市場見底的一個重要信號。第二個就是市場的估值上處於比較低的位置，滬深兩市主要的估值均處於歷史上比較低的水平，這從估值上來看已經是基本調整到位。第三的話就是說從新基金的發行量來看，這段時間新基金髮行量整體來看是比較低迷的，這也表明新資金入場意願不強，因爲市場從6月份開始就持續調整了三個月的時間，所以在之前我提出9月份可能是下半年市場的一個拐點，9月份也是佈局四季度行情的一個重要的窗口。對於四季度的行情，我認爲大家可以更加積極樂觀一點。雖然影響市場的一些利空因素沒有完全消除，但是出現了邊際改善。比方說第一個就是美聯儲加息的影響，本週美聯儲9月份的議息可能會如期加息75個基點，主要是因爲美國現在通脹率依然比較高。8月份CPI高達8.3%，雖然和7月份8.5%相比略有下降，但是下降幅度並不大，核心通脹率依然比較高，美聯儲可能會堅定加息以抗通脹，但是其實對市場的影響已經在之前的下跌中得到了充分的反應，如果9月21號美聯儲議息會議加息75個基點，美國的基準利率將會回升到3%。根據現在華爾街一致預期，加息最高預期就是基準利率提到4%到4.4%，也就意味着這一次加息之後最多還有2到3次加息，之後就會停止加息，甚至明年如果考慮到經濟增速下降，股市下跌的影響，美聯儲有可能會改變加息週期，甚至進入到降息週期，所以對於市場的影響在四季度正在減少。第二的話就是我國經濟面在復甦，上半年國務院出臺了六大方面33條刺激經濟的政策，這段時間國常會又再次出臺了接續的19項穩經濟增長的政策。這一系列政策在三","text":"大盤出現震盪反彈走勢，特別是新能源板塊表現較爲突出，形成了比較強的反彈趨勢，結束了之前市場比較大的調整。近期大盤調整已經具備了接近尾聲的跡象，從幾個方面可以看出來。一個就是市場的成交量萎縮比較厲害，基本上和今年高峯期上萬億的成交相比，成交量已經萎縮到5000億到6000億左右，這個成交量一般是地量見地價，這是市場見底的一個重要信號。第二個就是市場的估值上處於比較低的位置，滬深兩市主要的估值均處於歷史上比較低的水平，這從估值上來看已經是基本調整到位。第三的話就是說從新基金的發行量來看，這段時間新基金髮行量整體來看是比較低迷的，這也表明新資金入場意願不強，因爲市場從6月份開始就持續調整了三個月的時間，所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