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程導绅
2021-07-29
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程導绅
2021-07-29
Hi
Taper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic
程導绅
2021-06-28
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程導绅
2021-06-27
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It is still far from the threshold of \"substantial further progress\" but also closer; ② downplayed the market's concern that the Delta mutant virus dragged down the economic prospects; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ In the future, the high probability of reducing QE will be that Treasury Bond and MBS will reduce it together; ⑤ Emphasize again that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Set up a standing repurchase facility tool (SRF), which is divided into domestic primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal of this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up to cut QE purchases (Taper). Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and blunt, market expectations will often overshoot, causing drastic fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"cutting panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this round of policy cycle, the Fed's policy withdrawal and communication mode is gradual, smooth and transparent.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of the statement at this meeting is that \"some progress has been made on the economic objectives and will continue to be evaluated at future meetings\". The Delta variant virus that the market is worried about has not shaken the Fed's overall optimistic expectation of the economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy \"may be weaker and weaker\".</p><p>Considering that Taper's threshold is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the employment gap is filled. As of June, the employment gap caused by this epidemic was still unfilled by 6.76 million people, and the recovery rate was 70%. When the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the employment gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If the average monthly new jobs are about 690,000 in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market is always concerned about the rhythm of Taper, and at present, the expectation is gradually consistent. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve will hold on at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Federal Reserve begins to suggest that it will consider Taper, and it may officially announce Taper at the end of 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous judgment that the December FOMC meeting was announced and implemented in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting is the first time that Fed officials have conducted in-depth internal discussions on the possible timing and varieties involved in Taper in the future. Although there is no internal consensus on when to start Taper, it is inclined to cut US Treasury Bond and MBS at the same time once Taper.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014 the Fed reduced the monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting, and officially stopped QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. At present, the Fed's monthly purchase amount (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is USD 120 billion. If the monthly purchase amount is reduced by USD 15 billion, it will take roughly 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will end roughly in 2022Q3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, this meeting once again confirmed that the Federal Reserve basically gave up its prediction of when inflation will peak, but its bottom line is that the long-term inflation expectation can't get out of control, which is why the inflation data continues to exceed expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price level increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is likely not to affect the future inflation path\".</p><p>The Fed's most concerned inflation expectation indicator-the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines professional forecasters, household surveys and market implied inflation expectation indicators, and professional forecasters and businesses tend to predict inflation more accurately than household surveys or market pricing. CIE moved up from 1.94% in 2020Q3 to 2.05% in 2021Q2 and is not currently surging following the inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason why the US Treasury yields declined in the past month was mainly due to the economic worries caused by the raging mutant virus and the deadlock of fiscal stimulus. The reason why it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the transaction level (short covering, rebalancing of pension stocks and bonds, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>When the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate falls below 1.20%, what we need to think about is whether the current pricing of the U.S. economic outlook in US Treasury yields is too pessimistic, especially considering that the previous 1.20% level from the end of January to the beginning of February corresponds to the background that the U.S. fiscal stimulus and mass vaccination have not yet landed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering the current pessimistic pricing of the economic outlook in US Treasury yields, the unsustainable driving force of technical factors, and the rule that the bear market rebound space of U.S. bonds is about 50bp, the downside of U.S. bond interest rate in the second half of the year is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown of employment recovery in 2013Q3 led the Federal Reserve to stand still at the September-October interest rate meeting, and the 10-year US bond interest rate rose by 38bp from a low of 10.23 of 2.51% to 2.89% before the December interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced it on December 18 and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose again by 15bp to a peak of 3.04% during the year, and then returned to the downward channel in 2014 (global economic worries).</p><p>Referring to historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release the Taper signal in the third quarter, the 10-year US bond interest rate may rise again and gradually peak after the Taper official announcement, but it is difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to the upward channel next, the slope is difficult to be too steep, and there is a high probability that it will be in a wide range of fluctuations. In addition, the market's expectation for the Fed's withdrawal from easing is very sufficient, so there will be no more situation in February-March at the beginning of the year that the upward trend of the US Treasury yields will have a serious impact on the equity market. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1620296573452","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">覃汉投资笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary of the key points of the Fed's July FOMC meeting: ① The economy has made some progress towards reducing QE and will continue to evaluate it at future meetings. It is still far from the threshold of \"substantial further progress\" but also closer; ② downplayed the market's concern that the Delta mutant virus dragged down the economic prospects; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ In the future, the high probability of reducing QE will be that Treasury Bond and MBS will reduce it together; ⑤ Emphasize again that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Set up a standing repurchase facility tool (SRF), which is divided into domestic primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal of this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up to cut QE purchases (Taper). Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and blunt, market expectations will often overshoot, causing drastic fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"cutting panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this round of policy cycle, the Fed's policy withdrawal and communication mode is gradual, smooth and transparent.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of the statement at this meeting is that \"some progress has been made on the economic objectives and will continue to be evaluated at future meetings\". The Delta variant virus that the market is worried about has not shaken the Fed's overall optimistic expectation of the economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy \"may be weaker and weaker\".</p><p>Considering that Taper's threshold is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the employment gap is filled. As of June, the employment gap caused by this epidemic was still unfilled by 6.76 million people, and the recovery rate was 70%. When the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the employment gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If the average monthly new jobs are about 690,000 in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market is always concerned about the rhythm of Taper, and at present, the expectation is gradually consistent. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve will hold on at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Federal Reserve begins to suggest that it will consider Taper, and it may officially announce Taper at the end of 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous judgment that the December FOMC meeting was announced and implemented in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting is the first time that Fed officials have conducted in-depth internal discussions on the possible timing and varieties involved in Taper in the future. Although there is no internal consensus on when to start Taper, it is inclined to cut US Treasury Bond and MBS at the same time once Taper.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014 the Fed reduced the monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting, and officially stopped QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. At present, the Fed's monthly purchase amount (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is USD 120 billion. If the monthly purchase amount is reduced by USD 15 billion, it will take roughly 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will end roughly in 2022Q3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, this meeting once again confirmed that the Federal Reserve basically gave up its prediction of when inflation will peak, but its bottom line is that the long-term inflation expectation can't get out of control, which is why the inflation data continues to exceed expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price level increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is likely not to affect the future inflation path\".</p><p>The Fed's most concerned inflation expectation indicator-the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines professional forecasters, household surveys and market implied inflation expectation indicators, and professional forecasters and businesses tend to predict inflation more accurately than household surveys or market pricing. CIE moved up from 1.94% in 2020Q3 to 2.05% in 2021Q2 and is not currently surging following the inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason why the US Treasury yields declined in the past month was mainly due to the economic worries caused by the raging mutant virus and the deadlock of fiscal stimulus. The reason why it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the transaction level (short covering, rebalancing of pension stocks and bonds, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>When the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate falls below 1.20%, what we need to think about is whether the current pricing of the U.S. economic outlook in US Treasury yields is too pessimistic, especially considering that the previous 1.20% level from the end of January to the beginning of February corresponds to the background that the U.S. fiscal stimulus and mass vaccination have not yet landed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering the current pessimistic pricing of the economic outlook in US Treasury yields, the unsustainable driving force of technical factors, and the rule that the bear market rebound space of U.S. bonds is about 50bp, the downside of U.S. bond interest rate in the second half of the year is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown of employment recovery in 2013Q3 led the Federal Reserve to stand still at the September-October interest rate meeting, and the 10-year US bond interest rate rose by 38bp from a low of 10.23 of 2.51% to 2.89% before the December interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced it on December 18 and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose again by 15bp to a peak of 3.04% during the year, and then returned to the downward channel in 2014 (global economic worries).</p><p>Referring to historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release the Taper signal in the third quarter, the 10-year US bond interest rate may rise again and gradually peak after the Taper official announcement, but it is difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to the upward channel next, the slope is difficult to be too steep, and there is a high probability that it will be in a wide range of fluctuations. In addition, the market's expectation for the Fed's withdrawal from easing is very sufficient, so there will be no more situation in February-March at the beginning of the year that the upward trend of the US Treasury yields will have a serious impact on the equity market. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml\">覃汉投资笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SPY":"标普500ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155908504","content_text":"美联储7月FOMC会议要点总结：①经济已经朝削减QE取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估，与“进一步重大进展”（“substantial further progress”）的门槛仍有距离但也更近了；②淡化了市场对Delta变异病毒拖累经济前景的担忧；③重申通胀是暂时的，无需感到恐慌；④未来削减QE大概率会是国债和MBS一起减；⑤再次强调谈论加息过早；⑥设立常备回购便利工具（SRF），分为面向美国国内一级交易商和海外央行。\n本次会议最重要的信号，无疑就是美联储开始为削减QE购买（Taper）进行预热。政策沟通是门艺术，过于突兀与生硬，市场预期往往就会超调，引发资产价格剧烈波动，类似2013年5月的“削减恐慌”。所以，在本轮政策周期中，美联储政策退出和沟通的模式都是力求渐进、平滑和透明。\n本次会议声明措辞中，最重要的变化就是“经济目标已经取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估”。市场担忧的Delta变异病毒，并没有动摇美联储对经济前景整体乐观的预期，鲍威尔认为疫情对经济的冲击“可能一波比一波弱”。\n考虑到Taper的门槛是经济取得“进一步重大进展”，我们建议关注就业缺口的填补程度。本轮疫情造成的就业缺口截止6月仍差676万人未填补，恢复率为70%，而2013年12月美联储宣布Taper时，金融危机造成的就业缺口恢复率为88%，若下半年平均每月新增就业约69万人，年底12月实现类似的缺口恢复率难度不大。\n市场关心的始终是Taper的节奏，目前来看预期也逐渐走向一致。本次会议美联储按兵不动并不意外，市场普遍预期是8月Jackson Hole的央行年会或者9月FOMC会议将会是美联储开始暗示考虑Taper的时点，并且可能在2021年底或2022年初正式宣布Taper。我们则维持此前的判断，即12月FOMC会议宣布并在2022年开始执行。\n根据鲍威尔所言，7月FOMC会议是美联储官员首次针对未来Taper可能的时点和涉及品种进行深度内部讨论，虽然内部尚未对何时开始Taper形成共识，但倾向于一旦Taper就同时削减美国国债和MBS。\n回顾上一轮Taper，2014年美联储在每次会议上将每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）减少100亿美元，并在10月会议上正式停止QE，历时10个月完成。对比当下，美联储每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）为1200亿美元，若按照每月减少额度150亿美元，则大致需要8个月实现停止QE，如果12月宣布Taper，那么大致2022Q3结束。\n\n通胀方面，本次会议再次确认了美联储基本放弃对通胀何时见顶的预测，但它的底线是守住长期通胀预期不能失控，这也是为何通胀数据连续超预期，美联储却依然坚信“通胀是暂时性”的原因。鲍威尔也强调“如果短期的物价水平上涨不会影响长期的通胀预期，那么它就很可能不会影响未来的通胀路径”。\n美联储最关注的通胀预期指标——共同通胀预期指数（CIE），该指数综合了专业预测者、家庭调查和市场隐含的通胀预期指标，而专业预测者和企业对通胀的预测往往比家庭调查或市场定价更准确。CIE从2020Q3的1.94%上行到2021Q2的2.05%，目前并没有跟随通胀数据而飙升。\n\n过去一个月美债利率之所以下行，主要来自于变异病毒肆虐叠加财政刺激僵局所引发的经济担忧，而之所以一度跌破1.2%，主要来自交易层面的技术因素（空头回补、养老金股债再平衡、海外需求较强等）。\n在10年美债利率跌破1.20%之际，我们需要思考的是当前美债利率对美国经济前景的定价是否过于悲观，尤其是考虑到此前1月底-2月初1.20%的水平对应的背景是美国财政刺激和疫苗大规模接种都还没有落地。\n\n考虑到当前美债利率对经济前景的定价过于悲观、技术性因素的驱动力量难以持续、以及美债熊市反弹空间约50bp的规律，下半年10年美债利率下行空间有限。\n回顾2013-2014年，2013Q3就业复苏放缓导致美联储在9-10月议息会议上按兵不动，10年美债利率从10.23低点2.51%累计上行38bp至12月议息会议前的2.89%。美联储在12.18正式官宣并在2014年初执行，10年美债利率再次上行15bp至年内高点3.04%见顶，随后在2014年重回下降通道（全球经济担忧）。\n参考历史经验，我们认为，随着美联储在三季度开始释放Taper信号，10年美债利率可能会再次上行，并在Taper官宣落地后逐步见顶，但很难突破前期高点1.70-1.80%。\n所以，接下来即使美债利率重回上行通道，但是斜率很难太陡，大概率处于宽幅区间震荡格局，再加上市场对联储退出宽松预期非常充分，所以不会再出现年初2-3月份那种因为美债利率上行对权益市场造成严重冲击的情况。（完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"BND":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127346059,"gmtCreate":1624837541771,"gmtModify":1703845682609,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586587763605977","authorIdStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127346059","repostId":"2146121007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124650528,"gmtCreate":1624763473364,"gmtModify":1703844687981,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586587763605977","authorIdStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124650528","repostId":"1165215748","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165215748","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624762603,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165215748?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165215748","media":"中国证券报","summary":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了","content":"<p><div>On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, the Bitcoin plummeted again, once falling to $30,000, which dropped all the gains accumulated in the past six months. This is also the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of speculators. In just two months, the wind has reversed in the virtual currency market. Virtual currency collapsed across the board On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, after three days of pulling at the front line of $30,000, the price in Bitcoin took a sharp turn, falling by more than 53.5% compared with the highest price of $64,900 on April 14th. At present, the price has returned to the beginning of this year Tesla CEO Elon...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, the Bitcoin plummeted again, once falling to $30,000, which dropped all the gains accumulated in the past six months. This is also the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of speculators. In just two months, the wind has reversed in the virtual currency market. Virtual currency collapsed across the board On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, after three days of pulling at the front line of $30,000, the price in Bitcoin took a sharp turn, falling by more than 53.5% compared with the highest price of $64,900 on April 14th. At present, the price has returned to the beginning of this year Tesla CEO Elon...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76545b6ea7eb27730ee55d40b45ce15","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165215748","content_text":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了大逆转。\n虚拟货币全线崩溃\n北京时间6月26日晚间，在30000美元一线拉扯3天之后，比特币价格急转直下，较4月14日的年内最高价64900美元，跌超53.5%。目前价格已回归至今年初特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克力推比特币之前的水平。\n\n图片来源：欧易\nUAlCoin数据显示，虚拟货币合约一日内共爆仓超32亿元人民币，超3万多头遭血洗。\n\n图片来源：UAlCoin\nglassnode数据显示，比特币交易活跃地址数量已创下今年以来新低，比特币的交易活跃度回落至今年的底部区间，关注的人数逐渐减少。\n\n图片来源：alternative.me\nalternative.me显示，6月27日，虚拟货币交易情绪指数降至20，处于极度恐慌状态。最近一周，市场的恐慌情绪格外严重。\n百度搜索指数显示，比特币搜索量继续降低，市场关注度明显回落。\n虚拟货币投资者林海（化名）对中国证券报记者表示：“比特币刚开始跌的时候，炒币群里还一片谈笑风生，大家都在调侃什么时候加仓。自从这个月暴跌50%之后，群里都静悄悄的，大部分人不吭声了，群聊人数也开始减少，感觉快解散了。”\n有虚拟货币行情分析人士指出，比特币新增地址数近期持续下降，市场增量资金明显减少。从技术图上看，比特币上攻受阻，短线回落，考虑到上方抛压较大，短期走势逼近前期新低，反弹持续乏力，做空情绪浓厚，后续有深度回调的风险。\n特斯拉或抛售离场\n最近一周比特币价格徘徊在30000美元附近。分析师表示，很难预见比特币会出现转机。\n摩根大通团队分析师称，近期的市场是具有挑战性的。数据表明，虚拟货币的抛售是为了弥补损失，可能仍有大量低于实际价值的头寸需要通过市场清理。\n近日，摩根大通调查了来自1500多家机构的约3000名美国投资者。绝大多数参与者（占90%）表示他们的公司不会投资数字资产，80%的人声称他们永远不会进入加密货币市场。与此同时，五分之四的受访者表示，希望对虚拟货币采取更严格的限制。\n有市场人士猜测，近期比特币的下跌与马斯克对于比特币摇摆不定的态度有关，因为比特币挖矿消耗了大量能源与特斯拉的环保立场不符，特斯拉或将抛售比特币并拒绝比特币作为支付方式。目前相对脆弱的市场引发了散户的恐慌情绪。\n2月上旬，特斯拉宣布购入价值15亿美元的比特币，并透露将接受比特币作为付款方式。\n多位加密数字资产业内人士认为，这一消息是推动比特币价格从20000美元快速飙涨至60000美元的重要催化剂。然而，如今比特币的价格已经跌破当初特斯拉买入时的成本价，为特斯拉二季度的财报埋下隐患。\n根据市场预估，今年第一季度特斯拉开始投资比特币，并从中获得超过1亿美元的投资收益，占公司净利润将近四分之一。但比特币价格在二季度出现大幅调整，价格直接腰斩，若特斯拉未出售所持比特币，或造成接近1亿美元的投资损失。\n矿机遭5折甩卖\n币价腰斩，虚拟“挖矿”活动也不再活跃。\n虚拟货币“挖矿”活动的“重镇”四川省全面清理整顿挖矿行为，已经有一周时间。bytetree矿工生产和抛售累积数据数据显示，最近一周，矿工生产量和抛售量均出现下跌，显示出矿工抛售情绪明显上升，这或意味着更多矿工选择关机。\n\n图片来源：bytetree\n抛售矿机成为很多矿工的选择。大量二手矿机涌入市场，导致价格暴跌，与几个月前“一机难求“的火爆场面已是天差地别。\n一位矿机卖家指出, 原来用来交流的矿工群，现在已经用来卖变压器和矿机了。比特大陆S19jPRO-100T型号的矿机售价由7万多元腰斩至3万元左右。“只要能卖出去，什么价格都能接受。”\n\n图片来源：矿机卖家\n由于大量二手现货涌向市场，全球最大的加密货币矿机厂商比特大陆日前宣布，二手市场出货压力很大，为了帮助行业平稳过渡，决定全球暂时停售现货。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":124650528,"gmtCreate":1624763473364,"gmtModify":1703844687981,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124650528","repostId":"1165215748","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165215748","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624762603,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165215748?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165215748","media":"中国证券报","summary":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了","content":"<p><div>On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, the Bitcoin plummeted again, once falling to $30,000, which dropped all the gains accumulated in the past six months. This is also the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of speculators. In just two months, the wind has reversed in the virtual currency market. Virtual currency collapsed across the board On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, after three days of pulling at the front line of $30,000, the price in Bitcoin took a sharp turn, falling by more than 53.5% compared with the highest price of $64,900 on April 14th. At present, the price has returned to the beginning of this year Tesla CEO Elon...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n24-hour 3.2 billion yuan explosion warehouse, virtual currency collapse across the board, mining machine 50% discount sale\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, the Bitcoin plummeted again, once falling to $30,000, which dropped all the gains accumulated in the past six months. This is also the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of speculators. In just two months, the wind has reversed in the virtual currency market. Virtual currency collapsed across the board On the evening of June 26th, Beijing time, after three days of pulling at the front line of $30,000, the price in Bitcoin took a sharp turn, falling by more than 53.5% compared with the highest price of $64,900 on April 14th. At present, the price has returned to the beginning of this year Tesla CEO Elon...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76545b6ea7eb27730ee55d40b45ce15","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165215748","content_text":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了大逆转。\n虚拟货币全线崩溃\n北京时间6月26日晚间，在30000美元一线拉扯3天之后，比特币价格急转直下，较4月14日的年内最高价64900美元，跌超53.5%。目前价格已回归至今年初特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克力推比特币之前的水平。\n\n图片来源：欧易\nUAlCoin数据显示，虚拟货币合约一日内共爆仓超32亿元人民币，超3万多头遭血洗。\n\n图片来源：UAlCoin\nglassnode数据显示，比特币交易活跃地址数量已创下今年以来新低，比特币的交易活跃度回落至今年的底部区间，关注的人数逐渐减少。\n\n图片来源：alternative.me\nalternative.me显示，6月27日，虚拟货币交易情绪指数降至20，处于极度恐慌状态。最近一周，市场的恐慌情绪格外严重。\n百度搜索指数显示，比特币搜索量继续降低，市场关注度明显回落。\n虚拟货币投资者林海（化名）对中国证券报记者表示：“比特币刚开始跌的时候，炒币群里还一片谈笑风生，大家都在调侃什么时候加仓。自从这个月暴跌50%之后，群里都静悄悄的，大部分人不吭声了，群聊人数也开始减少，感觉快解散了。”\n有虚拟货币行情分析人士指出，比特币新增地址数近期持续下降，市场增量资金明显减少。从技术图上看，比特币上攻受阻，短线回落，考虑到上方抛压较大，短期走势逼近前期新低，反弹持续乏力，做空情绪浓厚，后续有深度回调的风险。\n特斯拉或抛售离场\n最近一周比特币价格徘徊在30000美元附近。分析师表示，很难预见比特币会出现转机。\n摩根大通团队分析师称，近期的市场是具有挑战性的。数据表明，虚拟货币的抛售是为了弥补损失，可能仍有大量低于实际价值的头寸需要通过市场清理。\n近日，摩根大通调查了来自1500多家机构的约3000名美国投资者。绝大多数参与者（占90%）表示他们的公司不会投资数字资产，80%的人声称他们永远不会进入加密货币市场。与此同时，五分之四的受访者表示，希望对虚拟货币采取更严格的限制。\n有市场人士猜测，近期比特币的下跌与马斯克对于比特币摇摆不定的态度有关，因为比特币挖矿消耗了大量能源与特斯拉的环保立场不符，特斯拉或将抛售比特币并拒绝比特币作为支付方式。目前相对脆弱的市场引发了散户的恐慌情绪。\n2月上旬，特斯拉宣布购入价值15亿美元的比特币，并透露将接受比特币作为付款方式。\n多位加密数字资产业内人士认为，这一消息是推动比特币价格从20000美元快速飙涨至60000美元的重要催化剂。然而，如今比特币的价格已经跌破当初特斯拉买入时的成本价，为特斯拉二季度的财报埋下隐患。\n根据市场预估，今年第一季度特斯拉开始投资比特币，并从中获得超过1亿美元的投资收益，占公司净利润将近四分之一。但比特币价格在二季度出现大幅调整，价格直接腰斩，若特斯拉未出售所持比特币，或造成接近1亿美元的投资损失。\n矿机遭5折甩卖\n币价腰斩，虚拟“挖矿”活动也不再活跃。\n虚拟货币“挖矿”活动的“重镇”四川省全面清理整顿挖矿行为，已经有一周时间。bytetree矿工生产和抛售累积数据数据显示，最近一周，矿工生产量和抛售量均出现下跌，显示出矿工抛售情绪明显上升，这或意味着更多矿工选择关机。\n\n图片来源：bytetree\n抛售矿机成为很多矿工的选择。大量二手矿机涌入市场，导致价格暴跌，与几个月前“一机难求“的火爆场面已是天差地别。\n一位矿机卖家指出, 原来用来交流的矿工群，现在已经用来卖变压器和矿机了。比特大陆S19jPRO-100T型号的矿机售价由7万多元腰斩至3万元左右。“只要能卖出去，什么价格都能接受。”\n\n图片来源：矿机卖家\n由于大量二手现货涌向市场，全球最大的加密货币矿机厂商比特大陆日前宣布，二手市场出货压力很大，为了帮助行业平稳过渡，决定全球暂时停售现货。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808060065,"gmtCreate":1627544752157,"gmtModify":1703492038287,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808060065","repostId":"1187897781","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808087297,"gmtCreate":1627544729719,"gmtModify":1703492037799,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808087297","repostId":"2155908504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155908504","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627544101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155908504?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 15:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155908504","media":"覃汉投资笔记","summary":"美联储7月FOMC会议要点总结：①经济已经朝削减QE取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估，与“进一步重大进展”（“substantial further progress”）的门槛仍有距离但也更近了","content":"<p>Summary of the key points of the Fed's July FOMC meeting: ① The economy has made some progress towards reducing QE and will continue to evaluate it at future meetings. It is still far from the threshold of \"substantial further progress\" but also closer; ② downplayed the market's concern that the Delta mutant virus dragged down the economic prospects; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ In the future, the high probability of reducing QE will be that Treasury Bond and MBS will reduce it together; ⑤ Emphasize again that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Set up a standing repurchase facility tool (SRF), which is divided into domestic primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal of this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up to cut QE purchases (Taper). Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and blunt, market expectations will often overshoot, causing drastic fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"cutting panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this round of policy cycle, the Fed's policy withdrawal and communication mode is gradual, smooth and transparent.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of the statement at this meeting is that \"some progress has been made on the economic objectives and will continue to be evaluated at future meetings\". The Delta variant virus that the market is worried about has not shaken the Fed's overall optimistic expectation of the economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy \"may be weaker and weaker\".</p><p>Considering that Taper's threshold is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the employment gap is filled. As of June, the employment gap caused by this epidemic was still unfilled by 6.76 million people, and the recovery rate was 70%. When the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the employment gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If the average monthly new jobs are about 690,000 in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market is always concerned about the rhythm of Taper, and at present, the expectation is gradually consistent. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve will hold on at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Federal Reserve begins to suggest that it will consider Taper, and it may officially announce Taper at the end of 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous judgment that the December FOMC meeting was announced and implemented in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting is the first time that Fed officials have conducted in-depth internal discussions on the possible timing and varieties involved in Taper in the future. Although there is no internal consensus on when to start Taper, it is inclined to cut US Treasury Bond and MBS at the same time once Taper.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014 the Fed reduced the monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting, and officially stopped QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. At present, the Fed's monthly purchase amount (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is USD 120 billion. If the monthly purchase amount is reduced by USD 15 billion, it will take roughly 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will end roughly in 2022Q3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, this meeting once again confirmed that the Federal Reserve basically gave up its prediction of when inflation will peak, but its bottom line is that the long-term inflation expectation can't get out of control, which is why the inflation data continues to exceed expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price level increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is likely not to affect the future inflation path\".</p><p>The Fed's most concerned inflation expectation indicator-the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines professional forecasters, household surveys and market implied inflation expectation indicators, and professional forecasters and businesses tend to predict inflation more accurately than household surveys or market pricing. CIE moved up from 1.94% in 2020Q3 to 2.05% in 2021Q2 and is not currently surging following the inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason why the US Treasury yields declined in the past month was mainly due to the economic worries caused by the raging mutant virus and the deadlock of fiscal stimulus. The reason why it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the transaction level (short covering, rebalancing of pension stocks and bonds, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>When the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate falls below 1.20%, what we need to think about is whether the current pricing of the U.S. economic outlook in US Treasury yields is too pessimistic, especially considering that the previous 1.20% level from the end of January to the beginning of February corresponds to the background that the U.S. fiscal stimulus and mass vaccination have not yet landed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering the current pessimistic pricing of the economic outlook in US Treasury yields, the unsustainable driving force of technical factors, and the rule that the bear market rebound space of U.S. bonds is about 50bp, the downside of U.S. bond interest rate in the second half of the year is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown of employment recovery in 2013Q3 led the Federal Reserve to stand still at the September-October interest rate meeting, and the 10-year US bond interest rate rose by 38bp from a low of 10.23 of 2.51% to 2.89% before the December interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced it on December 18 and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose again by 15bp to a peak of 3.04% during the year, and then returned to the downward channel in 2014 (global economic worries).</p><p>Referring to historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release the Taper signal in the third quarter, the 10-year US bond interest rate may rise again and gradually peak after the Taper official announcement, but it is difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to the upward channel next, the slope is difficult to be too steep, and there is a high probability that it will be in a wide range of fluctuations. In addition, the market's expectation for the Fed's withdrawal from easing is very sufficient, so there will be no more situation in February-March at the beginning of the year that the upward trend of the US Treasury yields will have a serious impact on the equity market. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1620296573452","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper is asymptotic, so it's hard to panic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">覃汉投资笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary of the key points of the Fed's July FOMC meeting: ① The economy has made some progress towards reducing QE and will continue to evaluate it at future meetings. It is still far from the threshold of \"substantial further progress\" but also closer; ② downplayed the market's concern that the Delta mutant virus dragged down the economic prospects; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ In the future, the high probability of reducing QE will be that Treasury Bond and MBS will reduce it together; ⑤ Emphasize again that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Set up a standing repurchase facility tool (SRF), which is divided into domestic primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal of this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up to cut QE purchases (Taper). Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and blunt, market expectations will often overshoot, causing drastic fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"cutting panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this round of policy cycle, the Fed's policy withdrawal and communication mode is gradual, smooth and transparent.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of the statement at this meeting is that \"some progress has been made on the economic objectives and will continue to be evaluated at future meetings\". The Delta variant virus that the market is worried about has not shaken the Fed's overall optimistic expectation of the economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy \"may be weaker and weaker\".</p><p>Considering that Taper's threshold is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the employment gap is filled. As of June, the employment gap caused by this epidemic was still unfilled by 6.76 million people, and the recovery rate was 70%. When the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the employment gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If the average monthly new jobs are about 690,000 in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market is always concerned about the rhythm of Taper, and at present, the expectation is gradually consistent. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve will hold on at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Federal Reserve begins to suggest that it will consider Taper, and it may officially announce Taper at the end of 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous judgment that the December FOMC meeting was announced and implemented in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting is the first time that Fed officials have conducted in-depth internal discussions on the possible timing and varieties involved in Taper in the future. Although there is no internal consensus on when to start Taper, it is inclined to cut US Treasury Bond and MBS at the same time once Taper.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014 the Fed reduced the monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting, and officially stopped QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. At present, the Fed's monthly purchase amount (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is USD 120 billion. If the monthly purchase amount is reduced by USD 15 billion, it will take roughly 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will end roughly in 2022Q3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, this meeting once again confirmed that the Federal Reserve basically gave up its prediction of when inflation will peak, but its bottom line is that the long-term inflation expectation can't get out of control, which is why the inflation data continues to exceed expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price level increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is likely not to affect the future inflation path\".</p><p>The Fed's most concerned inflation expectation indicator-the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines professional forecasters, household surveys and market implied inflation expectation indicators, and professional forecasters and businesses tend to predict inflation more accurately than household surveys or market pricing. CIE moved up from 1.94% in 2020Q3 to 2.05% in 2021Q2 and is not currently surging following the inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason why the US Treasury yields declined in the past month was mainly due to the economic worries caused by the raging mutant virus and the deadlock of fiscal stimulus. The reason why it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the transaction level (short covering, rebalancing of pension stocks and bonds, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>When the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate falls below 1.20%, what we need to think about is whether the current pricing of the U.S. economic outlook in US Treasury yields is too pessimistic, especially considering that the previous 1.20% level from the end of January to the beginning of February corresponds to the background that the U.S. fiscal stimulus and mass vaccination have not yet landed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering the current pessimistic pricing of the economic outlook in US Treasury yields, the unsustainable driving force of technical factors, and the rule that the bear market rebound space of U.S. bonds is about 50bp, the downside of U.S. bond interest rate in the second half of the year is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown of employment recovery in 2013Q3 led the Federal Reserve to stand still at the September-October interest rate meeting, and the 10-year US bond interest rate rose by 38bp from a low of 10.23 of 2.51% to 2.89% before the December interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced it on December 18 and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose again by 15bp to a peak of 3.04% during the year, and then returned to the downward channel in 2014 (global economic worries).</p><p>Referring to historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release the Taper signal in the third quarter, the 10-year US bond interest rate may rise again and gradually peak after the Taper official announcement, but it is difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to the upward channel next, the slope is difficult to be too steep, and there is a high probability that it will be in a wide range of fluctuations. In addition, the market's expectation for the Fed's withdrawal from easing is very sufficient, so there will be no more situation in February-March at the beginning of the year that the upward trend of the US Treasury yields will have a serious impact on the equity market. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml\">覃汉投资笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SPY":"标普500ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155908504","content_text":"美联储7月FOMC会议要点总结：①经济已经朝削减QE取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估，与“进一步重大进展”（“substantial further progress”）的门槛仍有距离但也更近了；②淡化了市场对Delta变异病毒拖累经济前景的担忧；③重申通胀是暂时的，无需感到恐慌；④未来削减QE大概率会是国债和MBS一起减；⑤再次强调谈论加息过早；⑥设立常备回购便利工具（SRF），分为面向美国国内一级交易商和海外央行。\n本次会议最重要的信号，无疑就是美联储开始为削减QE购买（Taper）进行预热。政策沟通是门艺术，过于突兀与生硬，市场预期往往就会超调，引发资产价格剧烈波动，类似2013年5月的“削减恐慌”。所以，在本轮政策周期中，美联储政策退出和沟通的模式都是力求渐进、平滑和透明。\n本次会议声明措辞中，最重要的变化就是“经济目标已经取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估”。市场担忧的Delta变异病毒，并没有动摇美联储对经济前景整体乐观的预期，鲍威尔认为疫情对经济的冲击“可能一波比一波弱”。\n考虑到Taper的门槛是经济取得“进一步重大进展”，我们建议关注就业缺口的填补程度。本轮疫情造成的就业缺口截止6月仍差676万人未填补，恢复率为70%，而2013年12月美联储宣布Taper时，金融危机造成的就业缺口恢复率为88%，若下半年平均每月新增就业约69万人，年底12月实现类似的缺口恢复率难度不大。\n市场关心的始终是Taper的节奏，目前来看预期也逐渐走向一致。本次会议美联储按兵不动并不意外，市场普遍预期是8月Jackson Hole的央行年会或者9月FOMC会议将会是美联储开始暗示考虑Taper的时点，并且可能在2021年底或2022年初正式宣布Taper。我们则维持此前的判断，即12月FOMC会议宣布并在2022年开始执行。\n根据鲍威尔所言，7月FOMC会议是美联储官员首次针对未来Taper可能的时点和涉及品种进行深度内部讨论，虽然内部尚未对何时开始Taper形成共识，但倾向于一旦Taper就同时削减美国国债和MBS。\n回顾上一轮Taper，2014年美联储在每次会议上将每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）减少100亿美元，并在10月会议上正式停止QE，历时10个月完成。对比当下，美联储每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）为1200亿美元，若按照每月减少额度150亿美元，则大致需要8个月实现停止QE，如果12月宣布Taper，那么大致2022Q3结束。\n\n通胀方面，本次会议再次确认了美联储基本放弃对通胀何时见顶的预测，但它的底线是守住长期通胀预期不能失控，这也是为何通胀数据连续超预期，美联储却依然坚信“通胀是暂时性”的原因。鲍威尔也强调“如果短期的物价水平上涨不会影响长期的通胀预期，那么它就很可能不会影响未来的通胀路径”。\n美联储最关注的通胀预期指标——共同通胀预期指数（CIE），该指数综合了专业预测者、家庭调查和市场隐含的通胀预期指标，而专业预测者和企业对通胀的预测往往比家庭调查或市场定价更准确。CIE从2020Q3的1.94%上行到2021Q2的2.05%，目前并没有跟随通胀数据而飙升。\n\n过去一个月美债利率之所以下行，主要来自于变异病毒肆虐叠加财政刺激僵局所引发的经济担忧，而之所以一度跌破1.2%，主要来自交易层面的技术因素（空头回补、养老金股债再平衡、海外需求较强等）。\n在10年美债利率跌破1.20%之际，我们需要思考的是当前美债利率对美国经济前景的定价是否过于悲观，尤其是考虑到此前1月底-2月初1.20%的水平对应的背景是美国财政刺激和疫苗大规模接种都还没有落地。\n\n考虑到当前美债利率对经济前景的定价过于悲观、技术性因素的驱动力量难以持续、以及美债熊市反弹空间约50bp的规律，下半年10年美债利率下行空间有限。\n回顾2013-2014年，2013Q3就业复苏放缓导致美联储在9-10月议息会议上按兵不动，10年美债利率从10.23低点2.51%累计上行38bp至12月议息会议前的2.89%。美联储在12.18正式官宣并在2014年初执行，10年美债利率再次上行15bp至年内高点3.04%见顶，随后在2014年重回下降通道（全球经济担忧）。\n参考历史经验，我们认为，随着美联储在三季度开始释放Taper信号，10年美债利率可能会再次上行，并在Taper官宣落地后逐步见顶，但很难突破前期高点1.70-1.80%。\n所以，接下来即使美债利率重回上行通道，但是斜率很难太陡，大概率处于宽幅区间震荡格局，再加上市场对联储退出宽松预期非常充分，所以不会再出现年初2-3月份那种因为美债利率上行对权益市场造成严重冲击的情况。（完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"BND":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127346059,"gmtCreate":1624837541771,"gmtModify":1703845682609,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127346059","repostId":"2146121007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
