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2021-07-08

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Fed June Minutes: What else should we pay attention to besides discussing tapering QE?

2021-06-24

Well said

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2021-06-24

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S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues

2021-06-23

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all

2021-06-23

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Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next

2021-06-23

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz

2021-06-23

Well said

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2021-06-22

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Market news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO

2021-06-21

Well said...

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2021-06-21

Ok

Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter

2021-06-21

Let see

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2021-06-21

6666

The first share of new tea drinks, how much is Naixue's tea worth?

2021-06-21

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Forward: Powell joins hands with U.S. core inflation data to hit heavily

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States

2021-06-21

tiger is here

Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States

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In the minutes, the FOMC discussed the establishment of a Domestic Permanent Repurchase Agreement Facility (SRF) and a Permanent Foreign International Monetary Authority (FIMA) Repurchase Facility; The economic outlook affirms the current rapid expansion, and also mentions that uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising; As well as market concerns, the scaling back of asset purchase plans were discussed.</p><p><b>Point 1. What kind of tool is SRF?</b></p><p>Among them, the standing FIMA repurchase facility is similar to the existing interim FIMA repurchase facility. That is, foreign central banks can exchange U.S. Treasury Bond for liquidity from the Federal Reserve. This has been used since the end of March last year, when the dollar was tight, and it is mainly used in emerging market countries that lack dollar liquidity.</p><p>While the SRF is known as the standing repo facility, in which financial institutions obtain temporary liquidity at a fixed interest rate through repo transactions with the Federal Reserve involving securities they hold that are eligible for open market operations.</p><p>The tool had actually been discussed in July 2019 as a technical element for rate cuts. Similar to the Excess Reserve Rate (IOER), it is the upper end of the Federal Funds rate target. Moreover, in terms of mechanism, the significance of its upper limit is tougher than IOER. (Because if big banks are also tight on liquidity, the ceiling represented by the excess reserve rate will lapse.)</p><p>So we have to not only think about it,<b><u>If the Fed was thinking about the pressure of negative interest rates when discussing ON RRP (lower bound), what was it thinking about when it started discussing SRF (upper bound)?</u></b>There may be two aspects:</p><p>1. As a management tool in the exit process of quantitative easing, it provides liquidity when interest rates in Federal Funds rate and other money markets rise abnormally. Earlier, SRF was considered a repackaged \"quantitative easing\" because it also provided liquidity to the market. However, the leading party and method are very different. The sponsor of SRF is not the central bank, but a financial institution, and the initiation method is more flexible.</p><p>2. Or incentivize banks to shift the composition of liquid asset portfolios from reserves to high-quality securities. SRF is to pledge bonds (mainly Treasury Bond) in exchange for liquidity. If the minimum bid rate of SRF is low, it will strongly encourage the increase of relevant underlying securities.</p><p><b>Point 2: Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising</b></p><p>The U.S. economic forecast for the June FOMC meeting was stronger than the April forecast, the minutes said. Real GDP growth is expected to increase significantly this year, with unemployment falling rapidly accordingly. The near-term inflation outlook has been revised significantly upward, but it is still expected that this year's rise in inflation will be temporary. But it has also become more cautious about some aspects:</p><p><b>1. \"Uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising.\"</b>This is mainly due to the risk stemming from the pandemic.</p><p><b>2. \"The economy is still far from achieving the broad-based and inclusive maximum employment goal.\"</b></p><p><b>3、</b>In the view of some participants,<b>\"Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages have complicated the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals, and the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain.\"</b></p><p><b>4. \"The risk of inflation forecast tends to go up.\"</b></p><p>On the overall note, the commissioners believe that the current recovery in the labor market is not meeting the target. Factors such as early retirement, concerns about the virus, childcare responsibilities and expanded unemployment insurance benefits remain important factors hampering the current job market. Several participants also highlighted that low interest rates are fueling rising house prices and that valuation pressures in the housing market could pose a financial stability risk.</p><p><b>Third, the reduction of asset purchase plan was discussed</b></p><p>The minutes show that participants discussed asset purchases and progress towards realization. There is no clear exit point, but the exit content is discussed more than the preliminary discussion in the previous issue. Including:</p><p>1. Members generally believe that<b>The criteria for \"further substantial progress\" have not been met</b>。 However, several participants mentioned that, in view of the upcoming data, it was expected to begin<b>Conditions to slow the pace of asset purchases will come a bit earlier than they expected at previous meetings.</b></p><p>2. 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In the minutes, the FOMC discussed the establishment of a Domestic Permanent Repurchase Agreement Facility (SRF) and a Permanent Foreign International Monetary Authority (FIMA) Repurchase Facility; The economic outlook affirms the current rapid expansion, and also mentions that uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising; As well as market concerns, the scaling back of asset purchase plans were discussed.</p><p><b>Point 1. What kind of tool is SRF?</b></p><p>Among them, the standing FIMA repurchase facility is similar to the existing interim FIMA repurchase facility. That is, foreign central banks can exchange U.S. Treasury Bond for liquidity from the Federal Reserve. This has been used since the end of March last year, when the dollar was tight, and it is mainly used in emerging market countries that lack dollar liquidity.</p><p>While the SRF is known as the standing repo facility, in which financial institutions obtain temporary liquidity at a fixed interest rate through repo transactions with the Federal Reserve involving securities they hold that are eligible for open market operations.</p><p>The tool had actually been discussed in July 2019 as a technical element for rate cuts. Similar to the Excess Reserve Rate (IOER), it is the upper end of the Federal Funds rate target. Moreover, in terms of mechanism, the significance of its upper limit is tougher than IOER. (Because if big banks are also tight on liquidity, the ceiling represented by the excess reserve rate will lapse.)</p><p>So we have to not only think about it,<b><u>If the Fed was thinking about the pressure of negative interest rates when discussing ON RRP (lower bound), what was it thinking about when it started discussing SRF (upper bound)?</u></b>There may be two aspects:</p><p>1. As a management tool in the exit process of quantitative easing, it provides liquidity when interest rates in Federal Funds rate and other money markets rise abnormally. Earlier, SRF was considered a repackaged \"quantitative easing\" because it also provided liquidity to the market. However, the leading party and method are very different. The sponsor of SRF is not the central bank, but a financial institution, and the initiation method is more flexible.</p><p>2. Or incentivize banks to shift the composition of liquid asset portfolios from reserves to high-quality securities. SRF is to pledge bonds (mainly Treasury Bond) in exchange for liquidity. If the minimum bid rate of SRF is low, it will strongly encourage the increase of relevant underlying securities.</p><p><b>Point 2: Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising</b></p><p>The U.S. economic forecast for the June FOMC meeting was stronger than the April forecast, the minutes said. Real GDP growth is expected to increase significantly this year, with unemployment falling rapidly accordingly. The near-term inflation outlook has been revised significantly upward, but it is still expected that this year's rise in inflation will be temporary. But it has also become more cautious about some aspects:</p><p><b>1. \"Uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising.\"</b>This is mainly due to the risk stemming from the pandemic.</p><p><b>2. \"The economy is still far from achieving the broad-based and inclusive maximum employment goal.\"</b></p><p><b>3、</b>In the view of some participants,<b>\"Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages have complicated the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals, and the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain.\"</b></p><p><b>4. \"The risk of inflation forecast tends to go up.\"</b></p><p>On the overall note, the commissioners believe that the current recovery in the labor market is not meeting the target. Factors such as early retirement, concerns about the virus, childcare responsibilities and expanded unemployment insurance benefits remain important factors hampering the current job market. Several participants also highlighted that low interest rates are fueling rising house prices and that valuation pressures in the housing market could pose a financial stability risk.</p><p><b>Third, the reduction of asset purchase plan was discussed</b></p><p>The minutes show that participants discussed asset purchases and progress towards realization. There is no clear exit point, but the exit content is discussed more than the preliminary discussion in the previous issue. Including:</p><p>1. Members generally believe that<b>The criteria for \"further substantial progress\" have not been met</b>。 However, several participants mentioned that, in view of the upcoming data, it was expected to begin<b>Conditions to slow the pace of asset purchases will come a bit earlier than they expected at previous meetings.</b></p><p>2. It is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Committee's goals faster than expected or risks that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals.</p><p>3. Different participants presented their views on the committee's institutional MBS purchase.</p><p>4. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards achieving its goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132708633","content_text":"作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。\n而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。\n该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）\n那么我们不仅要思考一下，如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？可能有以下两方面：\n1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。\n2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。\n看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高\n纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：\n1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”这主要是源于疫情的风险。\n2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”\n3、一些与会者认为，“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”\n4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”\n整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。\n看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论\n纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：\n1、委员普遍认为“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。\n2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。\n3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。\n4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121292171,"gmtCreate":1624464418893,"gmtModify":1703837663692,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121292171","repostId":"2145950390","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121298256,"gmtCreate":1624464379175,"gmtModify":1703837660944,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121298256","repostId":"1141331644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141331644","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624455055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141331644?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141331644","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141331644","content_text":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 closed just shy of one.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.\nEnergy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.\nBitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.\nAt last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading.Big tech stocks mixed in morning trading.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.\n\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"\nFor June the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.\nLooking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.\n\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121823473,"gmtCreate":1624459212392,"gmtModify":1703837447499,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a881ae781a0e79743b5abb7cc0f1b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121823473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121866234,"gmtCreate":1624458977428,"gmtModify":1703837436627,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"read","listText":"read","text":"read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121866234","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121138299,"gmtCreate":1624456271811,"gmtModify":1703837249195,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247438475cf04c0346e8c199e2c2d3a3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121138299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368241,"gmtCreate":1624454380383,"gmtModify":1703837154218,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368241","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129580417,"gmtCreate":1624377590539,"gmtModify":1703835014925,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129580417","repostId":"1113483599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113483599","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624375257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113483599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113483599","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n\n\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","content":"<p>US One, a company owned by China's \"king of lipstick\" Li Jiaqi, is looking for a chief financial officer to prepare for a possible US stock sale plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Qianxun, Via's parent company, is also planning an IPO, according to another person familiar with the matter. The two IPOs are expected to lift the veil on one of China's largest and most dynamic internet arenas.</p><p>Both companies' deliberations are in the early stages, and US One did not respond to repeated requests for comment, while Qianxun declined to comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 23:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US One, a company owned by China's \"king of lipstick\" Li Jiaqi, is looking for a chief financial officer to prepare for a possible US stock sale plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Qianxun, Via's parent company, is also planning an IPO, according to another person familiar with the matter. The two IPOs are expected to lift the veil on one of China's largest and most dynamic internet arenas.</p><p>Both companies' deliberations are in the early stages, and US One did not respond to repeated requests for comment, while Qianxun declined to comment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113483599","content_text":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906768,"gmtCreate":1624290701254,"gmtModify":1703832716818,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said...","listText":"Well said...","text":"Well said...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906768","repostId":"1189217015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906827,"gmtCreate":1624290664769,"gmtModify":1703832712005,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906827","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164243612,"gmtCreate":1624213740536,"gmtModify":1703830722277,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let see","listText":"Let see","text":"Let see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164243612","repostId":"2144943706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249657,"gmtCreate":1624213594879,"gmtModify":1703830721442,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249657","repostId":"2144706272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144706272","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624242918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144706272?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The first share of new tea drinks, how much is Naixue's tea worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>According to the announcement, the company will offer 257 million shares globally during the period from June 18 to June 23, 2021, of which the Hong Kong Public Offering accounts for 10%, the International Offering accounts for 90%, and an additional 15% over-allotment option. Entry fee is HK$9999.8. The offer price is HK$17.2-HK$19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds of HK$4.842 billion from the global offering.</p><p>As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is predictable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth. Fortunately, there is an anchor in the market fluctuation.</p><p>There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, one is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is about how fast the company can grow, the faster it grows, the higher the valuation it will naturally give, and the latter two are about sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points, one is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.</p><p>Nayuki's field is freshly made tea, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20), mid-end (average price 10-20) and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band. Nayuki is in the high-end price band.</p><p>In the Chinese tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among the freshly made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly made tea drinks. From 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate was as high as 75.8%, and the industry size reached 12.9 billion RMB. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Nayuki in recent years. According to the report of Zhuo Chi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Nayuki was on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?</p><p>In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of tea stores in Naixue reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. In 2018 and at the end of 2019, the number of Nayuki tea stores was 155 and 327, respectively.</p><p>When a store is invested, it is both a demand flow point and a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores was 909 million, 2.291 billion and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 were 152% and 25% respectively.</p><p>The future growth of Naixue's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?</p><p>One that we can see<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. Nayuki's tea product positioning is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that the potential space of Nayuki's tea can be 5,000 stores.</p><p>At present, Naixue's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, have 22, 33 and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and there is strong consumer demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Naixue's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, with 4 municipalities directly under the central government and 293 prefecture-level cities in China). From this perspective, Naixue's tea shop space can be 5,000 or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier cities and below in such business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, there are thousands of tea stores in Naixue.</p><p>So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.</p><p>But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment, which comes from Nayuki's tea family alone. We turned to look at the industry landscape and Nayuki's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the concentration of high-end freshly made tea drinks market is relatively high at present. According to the data of Chishi Consulting, the market share of CR5, a high-end freshly made tea brand, is as high as 55%, of which Naixue's market share is 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of the head brands is now very obvious.</p><p>Where are the competitive barriers of high-end tea drinks?</p><p>Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.</p><p>Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, using raw materials including superior tea leaves, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. Fortunately, high-quality tea and fresh milk have been produced industrially, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but the supply chain of fresh fruits is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality, how to ensure storage and reduce losses, are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the material cost accounts for about 34% of the revenue of current tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>It can be seen that the fluctuation of raw material costs has a significant impact on the profit side. High-end freshly made tea drinks don't have many entry thresholds in terms of product form, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nayuki can reach this share, and its control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.</p><p>The control of supply chain will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. However, in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be done by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the division of labor in the production process is clear, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is complicated, so there are many people in the store.</p><p>The average staffing of Naixue's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it started to push PRO stores with fresh baking removed, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With many people, the process is complicated, and the training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time, it also constitutes a barrier to competition.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically directly sold. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and the liberalization of joining is driven by huge interests, so it is easy to mess around.</p><p>The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not so important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be the icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces should be hard.</p><p>Now that Naixue has achieved the leader in the industry, these three points of competitiveness should be passed.</p><p>One thing investors may be more worried about is the operating cost of Naixue. Take the cost apart. A remarkable feature of Naixue, early Starbucks and current catering enterprises in Hong Kong stocks is the high rental cost. Nayuki's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks is more than 4 points in the early days, and Hong Kong stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue's opening of a big store in a bustling business district. However, the profitability of the company's store level is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% affected by the epidemic in 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, more headquarters expenses can be amortized as scale increases, improving profitability. In addition, Nayuki's future operating costs will continue to decline, which comes from the advantage of the expanded supply chain, and the second is the rental bargaining power of the enhanced brand power. In addition, expanding into lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, which are relatively lower in lower-tier cities.</p><p>Then how should Nayuki give a valuation?</p><p>From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier is currently under the banner of Jiumaojiu in Hong Kong stocks. Let's compare the early Starbucks and current restaurant stock valuations in Hong Kong.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about USD 14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. There were 165 stores in that year. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at about 80 times, with the highest of over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 to 6 times.</p><p>The current market value of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu in Hong Kong corresponds to the net profit valuation in 2020, which is hundreds of times respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit end of catering enterprises in 2020. According to the estimated profits of securities firms in 2021, they are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, it is 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively. The consensus expectation of securities firms in 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.</p><p>Compared with Starbucks in those days, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is exaggerated.</p><p>Nayuki is still in a high-speed growth period, and we use PS for valuation. If it is estimated according to the standard of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 is 3 billion, which is about 12 billion-18 billion according to 4-6 times PS.</p><p>Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, the investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. There are already a lot of stores in Haidilao, and this is a period of rapid growth. It will be more appropriate to use ninety-nine cents, and Nayuki is close to Tai Er's logic.</p><p>Because 2021 is now halfway over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiu Mao Jiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44-46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>According to the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The first share of new tea drinks, how much is Naixue's tea worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe first share of new tea drinks, how much is Naixue's tea worth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>According to the announcement, the company will offer 257 million shares globally during the period from June 18 to June 23, 2021, of which the Hong Kong Public Offering accounts for 10%, the International Offering accounts for 90%, and an additional 15% over-allotment option. Entry fee is HK$9999.8. The offer price is HK$17.2-HK$19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds of HK$4.842 billion from the global offering.</p><p>As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is predictable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth. Fortunately, there is an anchor in the market fluctuation.</p><p>There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, one is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is about how fast the company can grow, the faster it grows, the higher the valuation it will naturally give, and the latter two are about sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points, one is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.</p><p>Nayuki's field is freshly made tea, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20), mid-end (average price 10-20) and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band. Nayuki is in the high-end price band.</p><p>In the Chinese tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among the freshly made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly made tea drinks. From 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate was as high as 75.8%, and the industry size reached 12.9 billion RMB. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Nayuki in recent years. According to the report of Zhuo Chi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Nayuki was on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?</p><p>In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of tea stores in Naixue reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. In 2018 and at the end of 2019, the number of Nayuki tea stores was 155 and 327, respectively.</p><p>When a store is invested, it is both a demand flow point and a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores was 909 million, 2.291 billion and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 were 152% and 25% respectively.</p><p>The future growth of Naixue's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?</p><p>One that we can see<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. Nayuki's tea product positioning is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that the potential space of Nayuki's tea can be 5,000 stores.</p><p>At present, Naixue's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, have 22, 33 and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and there is strong consumer demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Naixue's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, with 4 municipalities directly under the central government and 293 prefecture-level cities in China). From this perspective, Naixue's tea shop space can be 5,000 or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier cities and below in such business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, there are thousands of tea stores in Naixue.</p><p>So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.</p><p>But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment, which comes from Nayuki's tea family alone. We turned to look at the industry landscape and Nayuki's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the concentration of high-end freshly made tea drinks market is relatively high at present. According to the data of Chishi Consulting, the market share of CR5, a high-end freshly made tea brand, is as high as 55%, of which Naixue's market share is 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of the head brands is now very obvious.</p><p>Where are the competitive barriers of high-end tea drinks?</p><p>Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.</p><p>Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, using raw materials including superior tea leaves, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. Fortunately, high-quality tea and fresh milk have been produced industrially, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but the supply chain of fresh fruits is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality, how to ensure storage and reduce losses, are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the material cost accounts for about 34% of the revenue of current tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>It can be seen that the fluctuation of raw material costs has a significant impact on the profit side. High-end freshly made tea drinks don't have many entry thresholds in terms of product form, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nayuki can reach this share, and its control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.</p><p>The control of supply chain will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. However, in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be done by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the division of labor in the production process is clear, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is complicated, so there are many people in the store.</p><p>The average staffing of Naixue's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it started to push PRO stores with fresh baking removed, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With many people, the process is complicated, and the training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time, it also constitutes a barrier to competition.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically directly sold. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and the liberalization of joining is driven by huge interests, so it is easy to mess around.</p><p>The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not so important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be the icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces should be hard.</p><p>Now that Naixue has achieved the leader in the industry, these three points of competitiveness should be passed.</p><p>One thing investors may be more worried about is the operating cost of Naixue. Take the cost apart. A remarkable feature of Naixue, early Starbucks and current catering enterprises in Hong Kong stocks is the high rental cost. Nayuki's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks is more than 4 points in the early days, and Hong Kong stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue's opening of a big store in a bustling business district. However, the profitability of the company's store level is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% affected by the epidemic in 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, more headquarters expenses can be amortized as scale increases, improving profitability. In addition, Nayuki's future operating costs will continue to decline, which comes from the advantage of the expanded supply chain, and the second is the rental bargaining power of the enhanced brand power. In addition, expanding into lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, which are relatively lower in lower-tier cities.</p><p>Then how should Nayuki give a valuation?</p><p>From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier is currently under the banner of Jiumaojiu in Hong Kong stocks. Let's compare the early Starbucks and current restaurant stock valuations in Hong Kong.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about USD 14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. There were 165 stores in that year. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at about 80 times, with the highest of over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 to 6 times.</p><p>The current market value of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu in Hong Kong corresponds to the net profit valuation in 2020, which is hundreds of times respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit end of catering enterprises in 2020. According to the estimated profits of securities firms in 2021, they are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, it is 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively. The consensus expectation of securities firms in 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.</p><p>Compared with Starbucks in those days, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is exaggerated.</p><p>Nayuki is still in a high-speed growth period, and we use PS for valuation. If it is estimated according to the standard of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 is 3 billion, which is about 12 billion-18 billion according to 4-6 times PS.</p><p>Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, the investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. There are already a lot of stores in Haidilao, and this is a period of rapid growth. It will be more appropriate to use ninety-nine cents, and Nayuki is close to Tai Er's logic.</p><p>Because 2021 is now halfway over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiu Mao Jiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44-46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>According to the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249883,"gmtCreate":1624213572142,"gmtModify":1703830721279,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249883","repostId":"1129554767","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129554767","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624183832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129554767?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 18:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Forward: Powell joins hands with U.S. core inflation data to hit heavily","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129554767","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>China LPR Rate, US PCE Price Index, US Jobless Claims, US Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial...<b>In respect of new shares:</b>China's leading digital freight platform \"Manbang\" and \"the first stock in the social metaverse\" Soul are about to go public;<b>Event aspect:</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell joined hands with a number of Fed officials to give intensive speeches;<b>In terms of financial report:</b>Nike, BlackBerry, JinkoSolar, Yidu Technology and many other companies will announce their financial reports.<b>Mon (Jun 21) KEYWORDS: China's LPR rate</b></p><p><b>There was less economic data on Monday, mainly paying attention to China's LPR interest rate data.</b></p><p>The PBOC's latest medium-term lending facility (MLF) operating rate remained stable, indicating that the loan market quoted rate (LPR) will remain unchanged in June, a team of Bloomberg Asia economists wrote. China's latest economic activity figures provide no pressing reason for the central bank to change its policy trajectory.</p><p><b>China's one-year loan market quoted rate, the reference rate for bank-to-business loans, is likely to remain at 3.85% in June. The five-year LPR (mortgage reference rate) is likely to remain at 4.65%.</b></p><p><b>There were also fewer risk events on Monday. The European session focused on the speeches of Bank of England officials, among which Woods, deputy governor of prudential supervision, spoke on climate risk scenario planning, and Tom Mutton, director of financial technology, spoke on crypto assets, stablecoins and digital currencies.</b></p><p>New York time,<b>Williams, the permanent voting committee of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, spoke at the banking conference,</b>Attention is needed.</p><p><b>Tuesday (Jun 22) KEYWORDS: Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of economic data on Tuesday, we mainly focused on the difference of CBI industrial orders in the UK in June, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the United States in May, and the consumer confidence index in the euro zone in June.</p><p>Relatively speaking, the speeches of Fed officials are more worthy of attention. Generally, in the week after the Fed decision, Fed officials will make speeches one after another, from which investors can get more details of officials' future monetary policy.</p><p>New York time,<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will address Congress on the COVID response and the economic outlook.</b>This will be the focus of the market.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out at the press conference after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 17th that there is still a long way to go before the economic recovery is enough for the Federal Reserve to start reducing its monthly bond purchases. He added that the discussion didn't even mention the timing of interest rate hike. Relatively speaking, Powell's attitude is slightly dovish than that of the Fed resolution. If Powell makes a more dovish speech, he needs to beware of the risk of US dollar correction and gold price rebound.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 23) Keywords: Europe and America June Markit manufacturing PMI initial value</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States will release the preliminary value of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the United States in June</b>。<b>The market expects the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI to fall slightly to 61.8 in June, but it is still at a historically high level, and it is still biased towards favorable stocks, commodities and risky assets.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Boston Fed President Rosengren will give speeches respectively, and investors also need to pay attention.</b></p><p><b>Thursday (June 24) KEYWORDS: Initial data, Fed officials speak, Soul goes public, Nike/BlackBerry earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the data front, investors need to pay attention<b>Movements in Unemployment Claims in the United States</b>。<b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits may continue to show a downward trend,</b>Because after supplemental unemployment benefits expire in many states, Americans are more willing to seek jobs.</p><p>In terms of financial report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will announce new quarterly earnings.</b></p><p>In terms of new shares,<b>The first stock in the social metaverse<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>Will be listed on NASDAQ.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>The FOMC permanent voting committee, New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak separately, and investors need to focus on it as well.</b></p><p><b>Friday (Jun 25) KEYWORDS: U.S. May PCE data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday, markets will welcome one of two data that the Fed focuses on monitoring- -<b>The U.S. PCE price index, which is a key measure of private consumption inflation in the United States.</b></p><p>The personal income and expenditure report for May will show how much Americans are trying to make up for what was missing during the pandemic. While the latest retail sales report showed a drop in goods consumption last month, upcoming data could suggest accelerated growth in the services sector made up for the loss in goods spending.</p><p>In terms of financial report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>Will report new quarterly earnings</b>Investors can pay attention to it.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forward: Powell joins hands with U.S. core inflation data to hit heavily</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForward: Powell joins hands with U.S. core inflation data to hit heavily\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-20 18:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>China LPR Rate, US PCE Price Index, US Jobless Claims, US Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial...<b>In respect of new shares:</b>China's leading digital freight platform \"Manbang\" and \"the first stock in the social metaverse\" Soul are about to go public;<b>Event aspect:</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell joined hands with a number of Fed officials to give intensive speeches;<b>In terms of financial report:</b>Nike, BlackBerry, JinkoSolar, Yidu Technology and many other companies will announce their financial reports.<b>Mon (Jun 21) KEYWORDS: China's LPR rate</b></p><p><b>There was less economic data on Monday, mainly paying attention to China's LPR interest rate data.</b></p><p>The PBOC's latest medium-term lending facility (MLF) operating rate remained stable, indicating that the loan market quoted rate (LPR) will remain unchanged in June, a team of Bloomberg Asia economists wrote. China's latest economic activity figures provide no pressing reason for the central bank to change its policy trajectory.</p><p><b>China's one-year loan market quoted rate, the reference rate for bank-to-business loans, is likely to remain at 3.85% in June. The five-year LPR (mortgage reference rate) is likely to remain at 4.65%.</b></p><p><b>There were also fewer risk events on Monday. The European session focused on the speeches of Bank of England officials, among which Woods, deputy governor of prudential supervision, spoke on climate risk scenario planning, and Tom Mutton, director of financial technology, spoke on crypto assets, stablecoins and digital currencies.</b></p><p>New York time,<b>Williams, the permanent voting committee of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, spoke at the banking conference,</b>Attention is needed.</p><p><b>Tuesday (Jun 22) KEYWORDS: Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of economic data on Tuesday, we mainly focused on the difference of CBI industrial orders in the UK in June, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the United States in May, and the consumer confidence index in the euro zone in June.</p><p>Relatively speaking, the speeches of Fed officials are more worthy of attention. Generally, in the week after the Fed decision, Fed officials will make speeches one after another, from which investors can get more details of officials' future monetary policy.</p><p>New York time,<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will address Congress on the COVID response and the economic outlook.</b>This will be the focus of the market.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out at the press conference after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 17th that there is still a long way to go before the economic recovery is enough for the Federal Reserve to start reducing its monthly bond purchases. He added that the discussion didn't even mention the timing of interest rate hike. Relatively speaking, Powell's attitude is slightly dovish than that of the Fed resolution. If Powell makes a more dovish speech, he needs to beware of the risk of US dollar correction and gold price rebound.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 23) Keywords: Europe and America June Markit manufacturing PMI initial value</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States will release the preliminary value of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the United States in June</b>。<b>The market expects the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI to fall slightly to 61.8 in June, but it is still at a historically high level, and it is still biased towards favorable stocks, commodities and risky assets.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Boston Fed President Rosengren will give speeches respectively, and investors also need to pay attention.</b></p><p><b>Thursday (June 24) KEYWORDS: Initial data, Fed officials speak, Soul goes public, Nike/BlackBerry earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the data front, investors need to pay attention<b>Movements in Unemployment Claims in the United States</b>。<b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits may continue to show a downward trend,</b>Because after supplemental unemployment benefits expire in many states, Americans are more willing to seek jobs.</p><p>In terms of financial report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will announce new quarterly earnings.</b></p><p>In terms of new shares,<b>The first stock in the social metaverse<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>Will be listed on NASDAQ.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>The FOMC permanent voting committee, New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak separately, and investors need to focus on it as well.</b></p><p><b>Friday (Jun 25) KEYWORDS: U.S. May PCE data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday, markets will welcome one of two data that the Fed focuses on monitoring- -<b>The U.S. PCE price index, which is a key measure of private consumption inflation in the United States.</b></p><p>The personal income and expenditure report for May will show how much Americans are trying to make up for what was missing during the pandemic. While the latest retail sales report showed a drop in goods consumption last month, upcoming data could suggest accelerated growth in the services sector made up for the loss in goods spending.</p><p>In terms of financial report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>Will report new quarterly earnings</b>Investors can pay attention to it.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129554767","content_text":"摘要：\n\n经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n\n\n新股方面：中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n\n\n事件方面：美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n\n\n财报方面：耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n\n周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率\n周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。\n彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。\n中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。\n周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监 Tom Mutton 就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。\n纽约时段，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，需要予以关注。\n周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。\n相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。\n纽约时段，美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。这将是市场关注的焦点所在。\n美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。\n周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值。市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。\n此外，美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报数据方面，投资者需要关注美国的初请失业金人数变动。申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。\n财报方面，耐克、黑莓、联邦快递将公布新一季财报。\n新股方面，社交元宇宙第一股Soul将登陆纳斯达克上市。\n此外，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。\n5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。\n财报方面，晶科能源、医渡科技将公布新一季财报，投资者可作关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164255489,"gmtCreate":1624213032141,"gmtModify":1703830715443,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164255489","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252755,"gmtCreate":1624212725777,"gmtModify":1703830714635,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252755","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252403,"gmtCreate":1624212706302,"gmtModify":1703830714312,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252403","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252591,"gmtCreate":1624212671113,"gmtModify":1703830714473,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252591","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252262,"gmtCreate":1624212650956,"gmtModify":1703830713987,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","listText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","text":"tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252262","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120906827,"gmtCreate":1624290664769,"gmtModify":1703832712005,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906827","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpark Thinking Submits IPO Application in the United States, Revenue Grows 202.7% in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings: Spark Thinking Education Technology Company submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to raise $100 million, and seeking to list on Nasdaq under the stock symbol SPRK.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the revenue of Spark Thinking in 2019 was 195 million yuan, and the revenue in 2020 was 1.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 502.1%; Spark Thinking had a net loss of 771 million yuan in 2019, 952 million yuan in 2020, and an accumulated loss of 1.723 billion yuan in the past two years.</p><p>In the first quarter ended March 31, the revenue of Spark Thinking was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%. In the first quarter, the net loss of Spark Thinking was 374 million yuan, an increase of 78.95% compared with the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The loss was mainly attributable to the rapid growth in selling and marketing expenses. According to the prospectus, in 2019, the sales and marketing expenses, R&D expenses and general administrative expenses of Spark Thinking were 236 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 128 million yuan respectively; In 2020, these three expenditures were 798 million yuan, 327 million yuan and 178 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the sales and marketing expenses of Spark Thinking were 343 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.5% over the first quarter of 2020. R&D investment was 144 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.7% over the first quarter of 2020.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121298256,"gmtCreate":1624464379175,"gmtModify":1703837660944,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121298256","repostId":"1141331644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141331644","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624455055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141331644?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141331644","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141331644","content_text":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 closed just shy of one.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.\nEnergy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.\nBitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.\nAt last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading.Big tech stocks mixed in morning trading.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.\n\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"\nFor June the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.\nLooking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.\n\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143961589,"gmtCreate":1625756139441,"gmtModify":1703748010879,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，read","listText":"，read","text":"，read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143961589","repostId":"1132708633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132708633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625754621,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132708633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed June Minutes: What else should we pay attention to besides discussing tapering QE?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132708633","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。","content":"<p>Author: Zhou Xinyu</p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June policy meeting. In the minutes, the FOMC discussed the establishment of a Domestic Permanent Repurchase Agreement Facility (SRF) and a Permanent Foreign International Monetary Authority (FIMA) Repurchase Facility; The economic outlook affirms the current rapid expansion, and also mentions that uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising; As well as market concerns, the scaling back of asset purchase plans were discussed.</p><p><b>Point 1. What kind of tool is SRF?</b></p><p>Among them, the standing FIMA repurchase facility is similar to the existing interim FIMA repurchase facility. That is, foreign central banks can exchange U.S. Treasury Bond for liquidity from the Federal Reserve. This has been used since the end of March last year, when the dollar was tight, and it is mainly used in emerging market countries that lack dollar liquidity.</p><p>While the SRF is known as the standing repo facility, in which financial institutions obtain temporary liquidity at a fixed interest rate through repo transactions with the Federal Reserve involving securities they hold that are eligible for open market operations.</p><p>The tool had actually been discussed in July 2019 as a technical element for rate cuts. Similar to the Excess Reserve Rate (IOER), it is the upper end of the Federal Funds rate target. Moreover, in terms of mechanism, the significance of its upper limit is tougher than IOER. (Because if big banks are also tight on liquidity, the ceiling represented by the excess reserve rate will lapse.)</p><p>So we have to not only think about it,<b><u>If the Fed was thinking about the pressure of negative interest rates when discussing ON RRP (lower bound), what was it thinking about when it started discussing SRF (upper bound)?</u></b>There may be two aspects:</p><p>1. As a management tool in the exit process of quantitative easing, it provides liquidity when interest rates in Federal Funds rate and other money markets rise abnormally. Earlier, SRF was considered a repackaged \"quantitative easing\" because it also provided liquidity to the market. However, the leading party and method are very different. The sponsor of SRF is not the central bank, but a financial institution, and the initiation method is more flexible.</p><p>2. Or incentivize banks to shift the composition of liquid asset portfolios from reserves to high-quality securities. SRF is to pledge bonds (mainly Treasury Bond) in exchange for liquidity. If the minimum bid rate of SRF is low, it will strongly encourage the increase of relevant underlying securities.</p><p><b>Point 2: Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising</b></p><p>The U.S. economic forecast for the June FOMC meeting was stronger than the April forecast, the minutes said. Real GDP growth is expected to increase significantly this year, with unemployment falling rapidly accordingly. The near-term inflation outlook has been revised significantly upward, but it is still expected that this year's rise in inflation will be temporary. But it has also become more cautious about some aspects:</p><p><b>1. \"Uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising.\"</b>This is mainly due to the risk stemming from the pandemic.</p><p><b>2. \"The economy is still far from achieving the broad-based and inclusive maximum employment goal.\"</b></p><p><b>3、</b>In the view of some participants,<b>\"Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages have complicated the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals, and the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain.\"</b></p><p><b>4. \"The risk of inflation forecast tends to go up.\"</b></p><p>On the overall note, the commissioners believe that the current recovery in the labor market is not meeting the target. Factors such as early retirement, concerns about the virus, childcare responsibilities and expanded unemployment insurance benefits remain important factors hampering the current job market. Several participants also highlighted that low interest rates are fueling rising house prices and that valuation pressures in the housing market could pose a financial stability risk.</p><p><b>Third, the reduction of asset purchase plan was discussed</b></p><p>The minutes show that participants discussed asset purchases and progress towards realization. There is no clear exit point, but the exit content is discussed more than the preliminary discussion in the previous issue. Including:</p><p>1. Members generally believe that<b>The criteria for \"further substantial progress\" have not been met</b>。 However, several participants mentioned that, in view of the upcoming data, it was expected to begin<b>Conditions to slow the pace of asset purchases will come a bit earlier than they expected at previous meetings.</b></p><p>2. It is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Committee's goals faster than expected or risks that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals.</p><p>3. Different participants presented their views on the committee's institutional MBS purchase.</p><p>4. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards achieving its goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed June Minutes: What else should we pay attention to besides discussing tapering QE?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed June Minutes: What else should we pay attention to besides discussing tapering QE?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhou Xinyu</p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June policy meeting. In the minutes, the FOMC discussed the establishment of a Domestic Permanent Repurchase Agreement Facility (SRF) and a Permanent Foreign International Monetary Authority (FIMA) Repurchase Facility; The economic outlook affirms the current rapid expansion, and also mentions that uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising; As well as market concerns, the scaling back of asset purchase plans were discussed.</p><p><b>Point 1. What kind of tool is SRF?</b></p><p>Among them, the standing FIMA repurchase facility is similar to the existing interim FIMA repurchase facility. That is, foreign central banks can exchange U.S. Treasury Bond for liquidity from the Federal Reserve. This has been used since the end of March last year, when the dollar was tight, and it is mainly used in emerging market countries that lack dollar liquidity.</p><p>While the SRF is known as the standing repo facility, in which financial institutions obtain temporary liquidity at a fixed interest rate through repo transactions with the Federal Reserve involving securities they hold that are eligible for open market operations.</p><p>The tool had actually been discussed in July 2019 as a technical element for rate cuts. Similar to the Excess Reserve Rate (IOER), it is the upper end of the Federal Funds rate target. Moreover, in terms of mechanism, the significance of its upper limit is tougher than IOER. (Because if big banks are also tight on liquidity, the ceiling represented by the excess reserve rate will lapse.)</p><p>So we have to not only think about it,<b><u>If the Fed was thinking about the pressure of negative interest rates when discussing ON RRP (lower bound), what was it thinking about when it started discussing SRF (upper bound)?</u></b>There may be two aspects:</p><p>1. As a management tool in the exit process of quantitative easing, it provides liquidity when interest rates in Federal Funds rate and other money markets rise abnormally. Earlier, SRF was considered a repackaged \"quantitative easing\" because it also provided liquidity to the market. However, the leading party and method are very different. The sponsor of SRF is not the central bank, but a financial institution, and the initiation method is more flexible.</p><p>2. Or incentivize banks to shift the composition of liquid asset portfolios from reserves to high-quality securities. SRF is to pledge bonds (mainly Treasury Bond) in exchange for liquidity. If the minimum bid rate of SRF is low, it will strongly encourage the increase of relevant underlying securities.</p><p><b>Point 2: Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising</b></p><p>The U.S. economic forecast for the June FOMC meeting was stronger than the April forecast, the minutes said. Real GDP growth is expected to increase significantly this year, with unemployment falling rapidly accordingly. The near-term inflation outlook has been revised significantly upward, but it is still expected that this year's rise in inflation will be temporary. But it has also become more cautious about some aspects:</p><p><b>1. \"Uncertainty around the economic outlook is rising.\"</b>This is mainly due to the risk stemming from the pandemic.</p><p><b>2. \"The economy is still far from achieving the broad-based and inclusive maximum employment goal.\"</b></p><p><b>3、</b>In the view of some participants,<b>\"Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages have complicated the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals, and the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain.\"</b></p><p><b>4. \"The risk of inflation forecast tends to go up.\"</b></p><p>On the overall note, the commissioners believe that the current recovery in the labor market is not meeting the target. Factors such as early retirement, concerns about the virus, childcare responsibilities and expanded unemployment insurance benefits remain important factors hampering the current job market. Several participants also highlighted that low interest rates are fueling rising house prices and that valuation pressures in the housing market could pose a financial stability risk.</p><p><b>Third, the reduction of asset purchase plan was discussed</b></p><p>The minutes show that participants discussed asset purchases and progress towards realization. There is no clear exit point, but the exit content is discussed more than the preliminary discussion in the previous issue. Including:</p><p>1. Members generally believe that<b>The criteria for \"further substantial progress\" have not been met</b>。 However, several participants mentioned that, in view of the upcoming data, it was expected to begin<b>Conditions to slow the pace of asset purchases will come a bit earlier than they expected at previous meetings.</b></p><p>2. It is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Committee's goals faster than expected or risks that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals.</p><p>3. Different participants presented their views on the committee's institutional MBS purchase.</p><p>4. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards achieving its goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132708633","content_text":"作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。\n而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。\n该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）\n那么我们不仅要思考一下，如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？可能有以下两方面：\n1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。\n2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。\n看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高\n纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：\n1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”这主要是源于疫情的风险。\n2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”\n3、一些与会者认为，“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”\n4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”\n整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。\n看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论\n纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：\n1、委员普遍认为“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。\n2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。\n3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。\n4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121292171,"gmtCreate":1624464418893,"gmtModify":1703837663692,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121292171","repostId":"2145950390","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121823473,"gmtCreate":1624459212392,"gmtModify":1703837447499,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a881ae781a0e79743b5abb7cc0f1b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121823473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121138299,"gmtCreate":1624456271811,"gmtModify":1703837249195,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247438475cf04c0346e8c199e2c2d3a3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121138299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129580417,"gmtCreate":1624377590539,"gmtModify":1703835014925,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129580417","repostId":"1113483599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113483599","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624375257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113483599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113483599","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n\n\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","content":"<p>US One, a company owned by China's \"king of lipstick\" Li Jiaqi, is looking for a chief financial officer to prepare for a possible US stock sale plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Qianxun, Via's parent company, is also planning an IPO, according to another person familiar with the matter. The two IPOs are expected to lift the veil on one of China's largest and most dynamic internet arenas.</p><p>Both companies' deliberations are in the early stages, and US One did not respond to repeated requests for comment, while Qianxun declined to comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya's companies are planning IPO\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 23:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US One, a company owned by China's \"king of lipstick\" Li Jiaqi, is looking for a chief financial officer to prepare for a possible US stock sale plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Qianxun, Via's parent company, is also planning an IPO, according to another person familiar with the matter. The two IPOs are expected to lift the veil on one of China's largest and most dynamic internet arenas.</p><p>Both companies' deliberations are in the early stages, and US One did not respond to repeated requests for comment, while Qianxun declined to comment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113483599","content_text":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906768,"gmtCreate":1624290701254,"gmtModify":1703832716818,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said...","listText":"Well said...","text":"Well said...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906768","repostId":"1189217015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121866234,"gmtCreate":1624458977428,"gmtModify":1703837436627,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"read","listText":"read","text":"read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121866234","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368241,"gmtCreate":1624454380383,"gmtModify":1703837154218,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368241","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}