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2021-07-08

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美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？

2021-06-24

Well said

These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash

2021-06-24

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S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues

2021-06-23

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all

2021-06-23

read

Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next

2021-06-23

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz

2021-06-23

Well said

Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash

2021-06-22

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市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO

2021-06-21

Well said...

特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？

2021-06-21

Ok

火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%

2021-06-21

Let see

618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战

2021-06-21

6666

新式茶饮第一股，奈雪的茶值多少钱？

2021-06-21

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前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

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2021-06-21

Tiger is here

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-21

Tiger is here

以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响

2021-06-21

tiger is here

以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响

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22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132708633","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。","content":"<p>作者：周欣瑜</p>\n<p>周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。</p>\n<p><b>看点一、SRF是个什么工具？</b></p>\n<p>其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。</p>\n<p>而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。</p>\n<p>该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）</p>\n<p>那么我们不仅要思考一下，<b><u>如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？</u></b>可能有以下两方面：</p>\n<p>1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。</p>\n<p>2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。</p>\n<p><b>看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高</b></p>\n<p>纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：</p>\n<p><b>1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”</b>这主要是源于疫情的风险。</p>\n<p><b>2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”</b></p>\n<p><b>3、</b>一些与会者认为，<b>“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”</b></p>\n<p><b>4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”</b></p>\n<p>整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。</p>\n<p><b>看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论</b></p>\n<p>纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：</p>\n<p>1、委员普遍认为<b>“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到</b>。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始<b>放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。</b></p>\n<p>2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。</p>\n<p>3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。</p>\n<p>4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-08 22:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132708633","content_text":"作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。\n而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。\n该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）\n那么我们不仅要思考一下，如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？可能有以下两方面：\n1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。\n2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。\n看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高\n纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：\n1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”这主要是源于疫情的风险。\n2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”\n3、一些与会者认为，“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”\n4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”\n整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。\n看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论\n纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：\n1、委员普遍认为“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。\n2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。\n3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。\n4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121292171,"gmtCreate":1624464418893,"gmtModify":1703837663692,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121292171","repostId":"2145950390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145950390","pubTimestamp":1624454400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145950390?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145950390","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's important to own shares of high-quality businesses.","content":"<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.</p>\n<p>Buffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83be5a41077ce17c2e4391b5b8225228\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>\n<p>Verizon Communications</p>\n<p><b>Verizon Communications </b>(NYSE:VZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.</p>\n<p>Verizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.</p>\n<p>The steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.</p>\n<h3>General Motors</h3>\n<p><b>General Motors </b>(NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.</p>\n<p>Fast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.</p>\n<p>General Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.</p>\n<h3>Kroger</h3>\n<p>Finally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant <b>Kroger </b>(NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.</p>\n<p>Kroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.</p>\n<p>With an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.</p>\n<h3>Be ready for the crash</h3>\n<p>The stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","KR":"克罗格","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GM":"通用汽车","VZ":"威瑞森"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145950390","content_text":"It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.\nBuffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.\n\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\nVerizon Communications\nVerizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), one of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.\nVerizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.\nThe steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is one of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.\nGeneral Motors\nGeneral Motors (NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.\nFast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.\nGeneral Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.\nKroger\nFinally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant Kroger (NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.\nKroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.\nWith an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.\nBe ready for the crash\nThe stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121298256,"gmtCreate":1624464379175,"gmtModify":1703837660944,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121298256","repostId":"1141331644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141331644","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624455055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141331644?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141331644","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141331644","content_text":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 closed just shy of one.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.\nEnergy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.\nBitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.\nAt last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading.Big tech stocks mixed in morning trading.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.\n\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"\nFor June the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.\nLooking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.\n\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121823473,"gmtCreate":1624459212392,"gmtModify":1703837447499,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a881ae781a0e79743b5abb7cc0f1b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121823473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121866234,"gmtCreate":1624458977428,"gmtModify":1703837436627,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"read","listText":"read","text":"read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121866234","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121138299,"gmtCreate":1624456271811,"gmtModify":1703837249195,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247438475cf04c0346e8c199e2c2d3a3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121138299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368241,"gmtCreate":1624454380383,"gmtModify":1703837154218,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368241","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145283099","pubTimestamp":1624452600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145283099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145283099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales fell off a cliff, and so did the stock price.","content":"<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.</p>\n<p>Other cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. <b>Ethereum</b> (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.</p>\n<p>Graphics chip developer <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eae70fe3111cdeb0fe2fe15c5e5fcf3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.</p>\n<p>What happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.</p>\n<h3>From shortage to supply glut</h3>\n<p>The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?</p>\n<p>NVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F631439%2Fnvidia-gaming-revenue-crypto.png&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.</p>\n<p>The crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.</p>\n<p>\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.</p>\n<p>Kress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"</p>\n<p>What's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.</p>\n<p>Actual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.</p>\n<p>Just like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872169a76058d1b9cde031da052b3211\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>\n<p>NVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145283099","content_text":"It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.\nOther cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.\nGraphics chip developer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.\nWhat happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.\nFrom shortage to supply glut\nThe price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?\nNVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.\n\nChart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.\nThe crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.\n\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.\nKress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"\nWhat's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.\nActual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.\nJust like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.\n\nNVDA data by YCharts\nNVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129580417,"gmtCreate":1624377590539,"gmtModify":1703835014925,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129580417","repostId":"1113483599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113483599","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624375257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113483599?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113483599","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n\n\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","content":"<p>据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。</p>\n<p>两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 23:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。</p>\n<p>两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113483599","content_text":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906768,"gmtCreate":1624290701254,"gmtModify":1703832716818,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said...","listText":"Well said...","text":"Well said...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906768","repostId":"1189217015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189217015","pubTimestamp":1624285381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189217015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189217015","media":"极客公园","summary":"文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面","content":"<p>文／赵子潇</p>\n<p>产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。</p>\n<p>作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。</p>\n<p>这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；为了让汽车达到很夸张的加速，特斯拉采用了一款带有碳纤维涂层的新型电机，使得它能让两吨重的汽车快速起步。</p>\n<p>在炫酷的配置之外，对于车内的智能化，特斯拉也加入自己的想法。一个比较惊艳的功能是，Model S Plaid 取消了挡杆，传统意义上的换挡，被车内的触摸屏取代了。并且，特斯拉加入了自动换挡功能，一步到位，从手动换挡升级到了直接开车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e3ed7ff3431cac0db49afa34b3e71c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Model S Plaid取消了物理挡杆，车内配置进一步简化|特斯拉</p>\n<p>听起来，特斯拉开始了又一次的“革命式创新”，但这项功能也会遭遇一些争议。特斯拉官方并没有特别强调自动换挡功能如何实现，也只有极少人实际体验过，因此会遭到安全方面的质疑。</p>\n<p>但这不妨碍特斯拉迈出了一项科技功能的第一步。它是全球第一款没有挡杆的汽车，恐怕也不只是为了作秀，还有更深远的意义在。</p>\n<p><b>取消挡杆，自动换挡，车还怎么开？</b></p>\n<p>电动汽车逐渐成为汽车行业的主流产品，但也有人旗帜鲜明地站在电动汽车的对立面，反对的其中一条理由就是：电动汽车失去了驾驶的乐趣。</p>\n<p>这种说法不无道理，一些电动汽车甚至要靠音响来模拟发动机的声音，因为有些人觉得电动车内部实在太安静，不像在开车。但反过来想，也正因为电动带起的智能化，无形之中让开车这件事变得方便了许多。</p>\n<p>就拿特斯拉 Model S Plaid 这款车来说，你甚至不用握住挡杆前后推动，只要在中控大屏上上下滑动，就能完成挡位切换。</p>\n<p>这是汽车设计的一次不小的创新。根据特斯拉官方演示，在中控大屏最左侧一列，司机只要向上划，就切换到D挡，向下划则切换到R挡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab60bc02b5b7de87b4e32be9e923cce5\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">在触摸屏上下划就可以换挡，是 Model S Plaid 最大的特色之一 |Twitter</p>\n<p>把硬件电子化甚至虚拟化，成为了汽车行业的一个趋势，从设计角度上看，也有种简约的美观。但有时也会遇到限制。把传统的后视镜简化成为一个摄像头，也是一种趋势，但在中国和美国，这个功能还不被法规所允许。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42e87b21e459fefbe1c1236585537c9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奥迪e-tron的虚拟后视镜，在中国和美国仍不被法规认可|奥迪</p>\n<p>但有趣的是，触摸屏上换挡这个功能是被允许的。NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）在一份声明中表示，他们了解特斯拉开发的系统并表示通过触摸屏界面操作的变速箱换挡控制配置正确不会违反联邦机动车安全标准。</p>\n<p>为了避免中控大屏有时会宕机，除了触摸屏，在中控台处也有挡位选择按键，作为一套“备份”系统。相比其他汽车只有一种换挡方式，特斯拉 Model S Plaid 提供了三种，数量上保证了这套系统不会出现问题。最后一种也是这款车型的“杀手锏”——自动换挡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f532a66cba86335450ea40fd3e906\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Model S Plaid自动换挡功能|特斯拉</p>\n<p>顾名思义，它可以根据周围环境进行检测，从而了解判断此时应该换到什么挡位。听起来比较科幻，但了解原理之后会发现，其实功能没有想象中那么复杂。</p>\n<p>举个例子，当汽车与手机绑定之后，如果汽车能在一定距离之内感应到手机，说明车主马上要上车，这时车辆就可以自动解锁。原理大致相同，自动换挡功能是与 Autopilot 辅助驾驶功能高度结合的。</p>\n<p>比如车辆前方有一堵墙，车辆的摄像头已经识别出前方有障碍物，那么唯一的办法就是倒车。同样，如果汽车感应到前方没有物体挡路，它也可以从停车挡位切换到驾驶模式。当汽车停下来、司机安全带解开，并且车门打开，汽车就会自动换到停车挡；另外，汽车在驾驶模式下一分钟没有移动，系统也会自动切到停车挡。</p>\n<p>由此可见，自动换挡是存在一定规律的。它需要在满足一些固定条件下才能完成。为了安全起见，特斯拉规定在停车模式下、司机安全带已系好、踩下制动踏板、所有车门和后备箱已关闭等一系列条件之下，才可以使用自动换挡功能。</p>\n<p><b>完成自动驾驶的第一步</b></p>\n<p>需要注意的是，自动换挡仍然是一项不完善的功能，特斯拉也没有大肆宣传，功能上也处理的比较谨慎。在 Model S Plaid 用户手册中，特斯拉指出自动换挡是一项 BETA 功能，默认情况下处于禁用状态。人们对这项新功能似乎还需要熟悉一下，才能熟练操作。</p>\n<p>的确，每一项功能的迭代都需要长时间的切换。自动挡汽车的出现，就抵消掉了一些开车的门槛，让更方便快捷的驾驶方式流行起来。</p>\n<p>从手动挡进化到自动挡，再到自动换挡功能的出现，除了代表设计简化的趋势，背后其实代表着发动机的逐步进化，再转变到电机，核心硬件也越来越简单，导致软件在其中的重要性逐步增加。</p>\n<p>不难理解，软件定义汽车的趋势在扩大，反馈到用户体验时，就意味着让人变“懒”，无需做一些重复的、基本的动作。这是科技发展给人们带来的最核心的改变。</p>\n<p>试想一下，以后人们开车可能只用到油门和方向盘，其他都不需要，是不是可以直接联想到汽车的下一个阶段：自动驾驶？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca650a574a30b6bfda2d6e74c177d4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">对于Model S Plaid的新方向盘，已经有人开始玩梗|网络</p>\n<p>看起来，特斯拉在某些方面的确有些激进，取消物理挡杆，方向盘设置成为方形，不管从传统的人体工学和使用习惯来看，都是反着来的。</p>\n<p>在一些社交媒体上，不断有人质疑，yoke 方向盘只是马斯克为了博眼球而提供的设计，在车辆掉头或者大幅度转弯时，方形方向盘对于人们的握持操作来说不一定安全。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611031209beaa0c94f220f6f7080ae32\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">非圆形方向盘掉头的尴尬|youtube</p>\n<p>但是从机器的视角来看，这个改变不存在什么硬伤。如果让自动驾驶系统来操控汽车，那么减少人类的动作意味着车辆全部走向电子化，让软件可以控制车辆的更多功能。</p>\n<p>回到汽车上，就是把所有“原子”变成“比特”，也就是把所有物理形态的零部件融合在电子化、自动化的按键里。Model S Plaid 的方向盘上只有两颗实体按键，其他都是需要用力触摸才得到反馈的虚拟按键。不少功能都需要大屏、仪表盘和实体按键的配合才能完成，即便熟悉科技产品的人也需要适应一下，但对于机器来说，这些都不太成问题。</p>\n<p>“Autopilot 作为量产车里辅助驾驶体验最好的系统之一，接下来需要车辆本身与自动驾驶系统进一步的适配，Model S Plaid 就是在这方面的尝试。车辆适配，自动驾驶系统升级，再针对性地调整，达到更高级的自动驾驶系统。”一位自动驾驶行业从业者向极客公园表示。</p>\n<p>一些具有争议的功能，看似“反人类”的设计，也许是特斯拉这家企业为了终极目标而做出的一次硬核技术铺垫。</p>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 22:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。\n这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35095c7a9e12e0226dab622d85302d4e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189217015","content_text":"文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。\n这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；为了让汽车达到很夸张的加速，特斯拉采用了一款带有碳纤维涂层的新型电机，使得它能让两吨重的汽车快速起步。\n在炫酷的配置之外，对于车内的智能化，特斯拉也加入自己的想法。一个比较惊艳的功能是，Model S Plaid 取消了挡杆，传统意义上的换挡，被车内的触摸屏取代了。并且，特斯拉加入了自动换挡功能，一步到位，从手动换挡升级到了直接开车。\nModel S Plaid取消了物理挡杆，车内配置进一步简化|特斯拉\n听起来，特斯拉开始了又一次的“革命式创新”，但这项功能也会遭遇一些争议。特斯拉官方并没有特别强调自动换挡功能如何实现，也只有极少人实际体验过，因此会遭到安全方面的质疑。\n但这不妨碍特斯拉迈出了一项科技功能的第一步。它是全球第一款没有挡杆的汽车，恐怕也不只是为了作秀，还有更深远的意义在。\n取消挡杆，自动换挡，车还怎么开？\n电动汽车逐渐成为汽车行业的主流产品，但也有人旗帜鲜明地站在电动汽车的对立面，反对的其中一条理由就是：电动汽车失去了驾驶的乐趣。\n这种说法不无道理，一些电动汽车甚至要靠音响来模拟发动机的声音，因为有些人觉得电动车内部实在太安静，不像在开车。但反过来想，也正因为电动带起的智能化，无形之中让开车这件事变得方便了许多。\n就拿特斯拉 Model S Plaid 这款车来说，你甚至不用握住挡杆前后推动，只要在中控大屏上上下滑动，就能完成挡位切换。\n这是汽车设计的一次不小的创新。根据特斯拉官方演示，在中控大屏最左侧一列，司机只要向上划，就切换到D挡，向下划则切换到R挡。\n在触摸屏上下划就可以换挡，是 Model S Plaid 最大的特色之一 |Twitter\n把硬件电子化甚至虚拟化，成为了汽车行业的一个趋势，从设计角度上看，也有种简约的美观。但有时也会遇到限制。把传统的后视镜简化成为一个摄像头，也是一种趋势，但在中国和美国，这个功能还不被法规所允许。\n奥迪e-tron的虚拟后视镜，在中国和美国仍不被法规认可|奥迪\n但有趣的是，触摸屏上换挡这个功能是被允许的。NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）在一份声明中表示，他们了解特斯拉开发的系统并表示通过触摸屏界面操作的变速箱换挡控制配置正确不会违反联邦机动车安全标准。\n为了避免中控大屏有时会宕机，除了触摸屏，在中控台处也有挡位选择按键，作为一套“备份”系统。相比其他汽车只有一种换挡方式，特斯拉 Model S Plaid 提供了三种，数量上保证了这套系统不会出现问题。最后一种也是这款车型的“杀手锏”——自动换挡。\nModel S Plaid自动换挡功能|特斯拉\n顾名思义，它可以根据周围环境进行检测，从而了解判断此时应该换到什么挡位。听起来比较科幻，但了解原理之后会发现，其实功能没有想象中那么复杂。\n举个例子，当汽车与手机绑定之后，如果汽车能在一定距离之内感应到手机，说明车主马上要上车，这时车辆就可以自动解锁。原理大致相同，自动换挡功能是与 Autopilot 辅助驾驶功能高度结合的。\n比如车辆前方有一堵墙，车辆的摄像头已经识别出前方有障碍物，那么唯一的办法就是倒车。同样，如果汽车感应到前方没有物体挡路，它也可以从停车挡位切换到驾驶模式。当汽车停下来、司机安全带解开，并且车门打开，汽车就会自动换到停车挡；另外，汽车在驾驶模式下一分钟没有移动，系统也会自动切到停车挡。\n由此可见，自动换挡是存在一定规律的。它需要在满足一些固定条件下才能完成。为了安全起见，特斯拉规定在停车模式下、司机安全带已系好、踩下制动踏板、所有车门和后备箱已关闭等一系列条件之下，才可以使用自动换挡功能。\n完成自动驾驶的第一步\n需要注意的是，自动换挡仍然是一项不完善的功能，特斯拉也没有大肆宣传，功能上也处理的比较谨慎。在 Model S Plaid 用户手册中，特斯拉指出自动换挡是一项 BETA 功能，默认情况下处于禁用状态。人们对这项新功能似乎还需要熟悉一下，才能熟练操作。\n的确，每一项功能的迭代都需要长时间的切换。自动挡汽车的出现，就抵消掉了一些开车的门槛，让更方便快捷的驾驶方式流行起来。\n从手动挡进化到自动挡，再到自动换挡功能的出现，除了代表设计简化的趋势，背后其实代表着发动机的逐步进化，再转变到电机，核心硬件也越来越简单，导致软件在其中的重要性逐步增加。\n不难理解，软件定义汽车的趋势在扩大，反馈到用户体验时，就意味着让人变“懒”，无需做一些重复的、基本的动作。这是科技发展给人们带来的最核心的改变。\n试想一下，以后人们开车可能只用到油门和方向盘，其他都不需要，是不是可以直接联想到汽车的下一个阶段：自动驾驶？\n对于Model S Plaid的新方向盘，已经有人开始玩梗|网络\n看起来，特斯拉在某些方面的确有些激进，取消物理挡杆，方向盘设置成为方形，不管从传统的人体工学和使用习惯来看，都是反着来的。\n在一些社交媒体上，不断有人质疑，yoke 方向盘只是马斯克为了博眼球而提供的设计，在车辆掉头或者大幅度转弯时，方形方向盘对于人们的握持操作来说不一定安全。\n非圆形方向盘掉头的尴尬|youtube\n但是从机器的视角来看，这个改变不存在什么硬伤。如果让自动驾驶系统来操控汽车，那么减少人类的动作意味着车辆全部走向电子化，让软件可以控制车辆的更多功能。\n回到汽车上，就是把所有“原子”变成“比特”，也就是把所有物理形态的零部件融合在电子化、自动化的按键里。Model S Plaid 的方向盘上只有两颗实体按键，其他都是需要用力触摸才得到反馈的虚拟按键。不少功能都需要大屏、仪表盘和实体按键的配合才能完成，即便熟悉科技产品的人也需要适应一下，但对于机器来说，这些都不太成问题。\n“Autopilot 作为量产车里辅助驾驶体验最好的系统之一，接下来需要车辆本身与自动驾驶系统进一步的适配，Model S Plaid 就是在这方面的尝试。车辆适配，自动驾驶系统升级，再针对性地调整，达到更高级的自动驾驶系统。”一位自动驾驶行业从业者向极客公园表示。\n一些具有争议的功能，看似“反人类”的设计，也许是特斯拉这家企业为了终极目标而做出的一次硬核技术铺垫。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906827,"gmtCreate":1624290664769,"gmtModify":1703832712005,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906827","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。</p>\n<p>截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。</p>\n<p>亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。</p>\n<p>2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。</p>\n<p>截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。</p>\n<p>亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。</p>\n<p>2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164243612,"gmtCreate":1624213740536,"gmtModify":1703830722277,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let see","listText":"Let see","text":"Let see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164243612","repostId":"2144943706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144943706","pubTimestamp":1624149308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144943706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 08:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144943706","media":"雷达财经","summary":"电商进入巨头混战时代","content":"<p>今年的618，格局生变。</p>\n<p>媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。</p>\n<p>行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。</p>\n<p>如今，在天猫、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等传统平台之外，还加入了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>和快手这样的新势力。整个行业重新轮回到补贴拉新+基建投入补短板时期。资本开支加大、增收不增利成为中短期常态。</p>\n<p>电商巨头价值也出现重估。雷达财经梳理发现，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>美股自去年618至今，股价下跌了5.64%，京东同期涨18.35%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。</p>\n<h3><b>抖音、快手加入618混战</b></h3>\n<p>这次618大促，电商行业告别了过去天猫、京东和拼多多三分天下的局面，进入到与抖音、快手同台竞技阶段。短视频两大巨头抢食电商业务，并不让人意外。</p>\n<p>长期来看，将流量作为变现来源永远不会安全，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>就是一例。目前短视频平台成熟变现方式包括会员订阅、直播打赏的增值服务模式，卖广告给B端客户和电商佣金模式。</p>\n<p>其中，电商是空间最大、效率最高、确定性最强的变现路径。因此从2018年起，抖音、快手都将电商作为战略级投入方向，前者在去年618前夕成立电商事业部，成为字节的一级部门；后者高举高打，对直播电商的投入以及重视程度，更远大于抖音。</p>\n<p>抖音起初与淘宝合作，扮演的是流量管道的角色。双方合作背后也有博弈，于是从2019年开始互相在导流上设置了一定门槛。后来抖音决定做电商闭环，彻底封锁了第三方平台商品链接，组建自己的电商生态。</p>\n<p>据媒体报道，今年5月份，抖音电商又与京东达成年度200亿GMV的合作，这被看做是抖音加强其缺少的成熟电商体系和供应链措施。</p>\n<p>联手淘宝、京东之外，抖音电商也在发力补齐自身的供应链短板。据Tech星球报道，近期引入多位从阿里离职的供应链方向高级别人才，同时在广东、云南、浙江等全国多省拿地建仓。</p>\n<p>而且从今年打出的“兴趣电商”概念来看，可以理解抖音电商还是依赖算法精准匹配，基于“货找人”的逻辑帮助用户发现潜在需求。目前各大平台都有海量商品池，消费者从中选出高性价比物品耗时费力，而迎合用户偏好来推荐、激发购物欲望的兴趣模式，和信息爆炸时代的兴趣阅读有着相似之处，不失为解决消费者购物倦怠的一种方式。</p>\n<p>当然营收规模已很庞大的字节，似乎不急于追求规模。抖音电商总裁康泽宇之前公开表示，“对于现阶段的抖音电商来说，GMV不是第一指标。完善平台对商家的基础服务能力，为用户提供极致的购买保障、客服体验才是现阶段抖音电商的重中之重。”</p>\n<p>快手从2018年起与淘宝打通购物车，去年5月又和京东签约，用户可以直接从快手小店进入京东自营店，由主播选品销售，并享受京东提供的配送、售后。</p>\n<p>根据官方公布数据，2021年第一季度，快手电商GMV达到1186亿元，同比增长219.8%。不过快手的直播带货场景下，主播成为一大变量。老铁文化下成长起来的带货主播，素质良莠不齐，有些主播甚至明知商品质量不过关还要推销。618前夕，有用户在快手“驴嫂平荣”的店里买到了“山寨”朵唯手机。</p>\n<p>虽然快手处理及时果断，永久清退朵唯所有产品。但在业内人士看来，目前快手官方没有能力控制平台的假冒伪劣商品，封禁主播只是平台治理逻辑，不触及问题的本质。</p>\n<p>这也是为什么6月1日，快手联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视打造的晚会以“极致信任”为主题，快手电商平台和主播都急需用户的信任。</p>\n<h3><b>阿里股价“退”拼多多“进”</b></h3>\n<p>新对手涌入的同时，老玩家的发展境况也各不相同。阿里在被巨罚冲击之后，还需直面拼多多崛起带来的挑战。2020年末及今年第一季度，拼多多年度活跃用户数量连续两季超越阿里，今年一季度拼多多年度活跃买家数8.238亿，阿里为8.11亿。</p>\n<p>拼多多毫不隐藏成为中国“电商一哥”的野心，新任CEO陈磊在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说：“拼多多的计划是继续投入补贴，直到取代阿里巴巴成为十亿中国消费者的首选购物平台。”</p>\n<p>尽管阿里还有云计算、菜鸟物流这样盈利潜力强劲的业务，但它再也不是电商领域曾经的超级存在，被迫参与到一场不得不打的下沉市场争夺战中。5月的财报电话会上，阿里CFO武卫称：“如今这么多竞争对手都在通过巨大的亏损来投资重要的领域，而阿里创造的价值和阿里已有的资源没理由让我们不投。”</p>\n<p>投入一方面是补贴拉新，2021年第一季度阿里销售费用率提升至14%，为2018年以来新高。另一方面是在新一轮电商及新零售基础设施方向上投入。随着电商增长天花板渐渐逼近，碎片化的线下消费开始被巨头们重视，社区团购作为未来电商版图中的重要一块拼图，没人能忽视。</p>\n<p>因此围绕新业态继续对现有物流设施完善，对本地即时配送网络进行迭代，以及对以生鲜为代表的社区零售在供给侧高效匹配，平台设施的完善程度和效率，成为巨头下一轮比拼的关键。</p>\n<p>但对未来竞争优势的执著投入，无疑会拖累阿里的财务表现。阿里巴巴董事局主席张勇就表示，阿里决定在新财年将业务增长所带来的所有新增利润都投入到重点战略领域。这种不确定性反应在了股价上，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今下跌了5.64%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。</p>\n<p>相对而言，京东是反垄断监管的受益者，过去“二选一”的商家可以重回京东开店，借助微信资源开拓的下沉市场用户，成为公司新的增长点。另外，京东具备的数字化技术、供应链和物流基础设施，让其有了赋能B端的能力。</p>\n<p>但值得关注的是，5月19日举行的一季度业绩电话会议上，京东管理层透露出，集团仍将致力于社区团购业务的投资，但不会像部分竞争对手一样大量投资。据了解，目前京东社区团购业务仅覆盖全国17个省份，远远落后于市场先行者。</p>\n<p>野村证券认为，尽管社区团购市场看似前景光明，但京东似乎并不具备与行业巨头展开正面交锋所需的资源。</p>\n<p>京东对社区团购的谨慎态度，和两年前对待直播电商相似。据棱镜报道，2019年下半年，直播在京东内部还被定性为“伪风口”。彼时，京东零售CEO徐雷在宿迁面对包括作者在内的媒体讲道，直播电商不是常态的、稳定的供应链。但时至今日，直播带货已站稳电商C位，反而映衬出京东在内容和流量上的缺位。</p>\n<p>好在京东的“优势”在于，它从来都不是行业老大，不是舆论关注的焦点，同时也具备足够深的品牌、供应链和物流护城河。但当所有商家转向直播，巨头都在加码社区团购的时候，京东还能“专心搞钱”吗？</p>\n<p>股价方面，去年618至今的一年时间里，京东在美股上涨18.35%，同期纳斯达克指数涨幅42.89%。</p>\n<p>事实上，在巨头们的战略研判中，社区团购不仅仅是“几捆菜”的事，生鲜买菜只是社区零售的一个方面。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>研报的分析，社区团购本质上切的是高频、低客单、高复购、刚需的生鲜与日用零售品电商市场份额。</p>\n<p>未来的电商版图将由线上实物、外卖到家服务、社区（生鲜）零售三位一体构成。这也意味着零售的概念扩大了，传统电商平台的边界也有了延伸的可能，巨头们看到了更大的蛋糕。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>将中国消费市场划分为传统零售（20-25万亿）、数字化新零售（10-15万亿）、本地生活服务（20-25万亿）三个部分，随着消费和服务边界逐渐模糊，这是一个规模有望达到60万亿的大市场。</p>\n<p>在社会消费版图朝这个方向演进时，巨头互抢地盘时有发生。京东零售集团首席执行官徐雷在618前夕公开表示，如今主体为电商或者非电商的企业，都发现零售业是最有可能穿越经济周期的行业之一，纷纷涌入进来。</p>\n<p>巨头激战正酣，谁能笑到最后，让我们拭目以待。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 08:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439><strong>雷达财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年的618，格局生变。\n媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。\n行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。\n如今，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83c96a071b225e670f1b11b79c4a3e91","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144943706","content_text":"今年的618，格局生变。\n媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。\n行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。\n如今，在天猫、京东、拼多多等传统平台之外，还加入了抖音和快手这样的新势力。整个行业重新轮回到补贴拉新+基建投入补短板时期。资本开支加大、增收不增利成为中短期常态。\n电商巨头价值也出现重估。雷达财经梳理发现，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今，股价下跌了5.64%，京东同期涨18.35%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。\n抖音、快手加入618混战\n这次618大促，电商行业告别了过去天猫、京东和拼多多三分天下的局面，进入到与抖音、快手同台竞技阶段。短视频两大巨头抢食电商业务，并不让人意外。\n长期来看，将流量作为变现来源永远不会安全，百度就是一例。目前短视频平台成熟变现方式包括会员订阅、直播打赏的增值服务模式，卖广告给B端客户和电商佣金模式。\n其中，电商是空间最大、效率最高、确定性最强的变现路径。因此从2018年起，抖音、快手都将电商作为战略级投入方向，前者在去年618前夕成立电商事业部，成为字节的一级部门；后者高举高打，对直播电商的投入以及重视程度，更远大于抖音。\n抖音起初与淘宝合作，扮演的是流量管道的角色。双方合作背后也有博弈，于是从2019年开始互相在导流上设置了一定门槛。后来抖音决定做电商闭环，彻底封锁了第三方平台商品链接，组建自己的电商生态。\n据媒体报道，今年5月份，抖音电商又与京东达成年度200亿GMV的合作，这被看做是抖音加强其缺少的成熟电商体系和供应链措施。\n联手淘宝、京东之外，抖音电商也在发力补齐自身的供应链短板。据Tech星球报道，近期引入多位从阿里离职的供应链方向高级别人才，同时在广东、云南、浙江等全国多省拿地建仓。\n而且从今年打出的“兴趣电商”概念来看，可以理解抖音电商还是依赖算法精准匹配，基于“货找人”的逻辑帮助用户发现潜在需求。目前各大平台都有海量商品池，消费者从中选出高性价比物品耗时费力，而迎合用户偏好来推荐、激发购物欲望的兴趣模式，和信息爆炸时代的兴趣阅读有着相似之处，不失为解决消费者购物倦怠的一种方式。\n当然营收规模已很庞大的字节，似乎不急于追求规模。抖音电商总裁康泽宇之前公开表示，“对于现阶段的抖音电商来说，GMV不是第一指标。完善平台对商家的基础服务能力，为用户提供极致的购买保障、客服体验才是现阶段抖音电商的重中之重。”\n快手从2018年起与淘宝打通购物车，去年5月又和京东签约，用户可以直接从快手小店进入京东自营店，由主播选品销售，并享受京东提供的配送、售后。\n根据官方公布数据，2021年第一季度，快手电商GMV达到1186亿元，同比增长219.8%。不过快手的直播带货场景下，主播成为一大变量。老铁文化下成长起来的带货主播，素质良莠不齐，有些主播甚至明知商品质量不过关还要推销。618前夕，有用户在快手“驴嫂平荣”的店里买到了“山寨”朵唯手机。\n虽然快手处理及时果断，永久清退朵唯所有产品。但在业内人士看来，目前快手官方没有能力控制平台的假冒伪劣商品，封禁主播只是平台治理逻辑，不触及问题的本质。\n这也是为什么6月1日，快手联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视打造的晚会以“极致信任”为主题，快手电商平台和主播都急需用户的信任。\n阿里股价“退”拼多多“进”\n新对手涌入的同时，老玩家的发展境况也各不相同。阿里在被巨罚冲击之后，还需直面拼多多崛起带来的挑战。2020年末及今年第一季度，拼多多年度活跃用户数量连续两季超越阿里，今年一季度拼多多年度活跃买家数8.238亿，阿里为8.11亿。\n拼多多毫不隐藏成为中国“电商一哥”的野心，新任CEO陈磊在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说：“拼多多的计划是继续投入补贴，直到取代阿里巴巴成为十亿中国消费者的首选购物平台。”\n尽管阿里还有云计算、菜鸟物流这样盈利潜力强劲的业务，但它再也不是电商领域曾经的超级存在，被迫参与到一场不得不打的下沉市场争夺战中。5月的财报电话会上，阿里CFO武卫称：“如今这么多竞争对手都在通过巨大的亏损来投资重要的领域，而阿里创造的价值和阿里已有的资源没理由让我们不投。”\n投入一方面是补贴拉新，2021年第一季度阿里销售费用率提升至14%，为2018年以来新高。另一方面是在新一轮电商及新零售基础设施方向上投入。随着电商增长天花板渐渐逼近，碎片化的线下消费开始被巨头们重视，社区团购作为未来电商版图中的重要一块拼图，没人能忽视。\n因此围绕新业态继续对现有物流设施完善，对本地即时配送网络进行迭代，以及对以生鲜为代表的社区零售在供给侧高效匹配，平台设施的完善程度和效率，成为巨头下一轮比拼的关键。\n但对未来竞争优势的执著投入，无疑会拖累阿里的财务表现。阿里巴巴董事局主席张勇就表示，阿里决定在新财年将业务增长所带来的所有新增利润都投入到重点战略领域。这种不确定性反应在了股价上，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今下跌了5.64%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。\n相对而言，京东是反垄断监管的受益者，过去“二选一”的商家可以重回京东开店，借助微信资源开拓的下沉市场用户，成为公司新的增长点。另外，京东具备的数字化技术、供应链和物流基础设施，让其有了赋能B端的能力。\n但值得关注的是，5月19日举行的一季度业绩电话会议上，京东管理层透露出，集团仍将致力于社区团购业务的投资，但不会像部分竞争对手一样大量投资。据了解，目前京东社区团购业务仅覆盖全国17个省份，远远落后于市场先行者。\n野村证券认为，尽管社区团购市场看似前景光明，但京东似乎并不具备与行业巨头展开正面交锋所需的资源。\n京东对社区团购的谨慎态度，和两年前对待直播电商相似。据棱镜报道，2019年下半年，直播在京东内部还被定性为“伪风口”。彼时，京东零售CEO徐雷在宿迁面对包括作者在内的媒体讲道，直播电商不是常态的、稳定的供应链。但时至今日，直播带货已站稳电商C位，反而映衬出京东在内容和流量上的缺位。\n好在京东的“优势”在于，它从来都不是行业老大，不是舆论关注的焦点，同时也具备足够深的品牌、供应链和物流护城河。但当所有商家转向直播，巨头都在加码社区团购的时候，京东还能“专心搞钱”吗？\n股价方面，去年618至今的一年时间里，京东在美股上涨18.35%，同期纳斯达克指数涨幅42.89%。\n事实上，在巨头们的战略研判中，社区团购不仅仅是“几捆菜”的事，生鲜买菜只是社区零售的一个方面。根据国泰君安研报的分析，社区团购本质上切的是高频、低客单、高复购、刚需的生鲜与日用零售品电商市场份额。\n未来的电商版图将由线上实物、外卖到家服务、社区（生鲜）零售三位一体构成。这也意味着零售的概念扩大了，传统电商平台的边界也有了延伸的可能，巨头们看到了更大的蛋糕。\n国泰君安将中国消费市场划分为传统零售（20-25万亿）、数字化新零售（10-15万亿）、本地生活服务（20-25万亿）三个部分，随着消费和服务边界逐渐模糊，这是一个规模有望达到60万亿的大市场。\n在社会消费版图朝这个方向演进时，巨头互抢地盘时有发生。京东零售集团首席执行官徐雷在618前夕公开表示，如今主体为电商或者非电商的企业，都发现零售业是最有可能穿越经济周期的行业之一，纷纷涌入进来。\n巨头激战正酣，谁能笑到最后，让我们拭目以待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249657,"gmtCreate":1624213594879,"gmtModify":1703830721442,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249657","repostId":"2144706272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144706272","pubTimestamp":1624242918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144706272?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"新式茶饮第一股，奈雪的茶值多少钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。</p>\n<p>作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。</p>\n<p>影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。</p>\n<p>先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。</p>\n<p>奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。</p>\n<p>在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？</p>\n<p>2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。</p>\n<p>一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？</p>\n<p>一种我们可以看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。</p>\n<p>从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。</p>\n<p>从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。</p>\n<p>所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。</p>\n<p>但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。</p>\n<p>行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。</p>\n<p>那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？</p>\n<p>个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。</p>\n<p>先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。</p>\n<p>这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。</p>\n<p>供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。</p>\n<p>咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。</p>\n<p>奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。</p>\n<p>人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。</p>\n<p>这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。</p>\n<p>第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。</p>\n<p>奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。</p>\n<p>有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>8个多点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>10个点左右。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。</p>\n<p>那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？</p>\n<p>从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。</p>\n<p>星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。</p>\n<p>香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。</p>\n<p>相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。</p>\n<p>奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。</p>\n<p>当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。</p>\n<p>因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。</p>\n<p>按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新式茶饮第一股，奈雪的茶值多少钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249883,"gmtCreate":1624213572142,"gmtModify":1703830721279,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249883","repostId":"1129554767","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129554767","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624183832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129554767?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 18:10","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129554767","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。","content":"<p><b>摘要：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>经济数据方面：</b>中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>新股方面：</b>中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>事件方面：</b>美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>财报方面：</b>耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率</b></p>\n<p><b>周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。</b></p>\n<p>彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。</p>\n<p><b>中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。</b></p>\n<p><b>周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监&nbsp;Tom&nbsp;Mutton&nbsp;就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。</b></p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，</b>需要予以关注。</p>\n<p><b>周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。</p>\n<p>相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。</p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。</b>这将是市场关注的焦点所在。</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。</p>\n<p><b>周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b>。<b>市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据方面，投资者需要关注<b>美国的初请失业金人数变动</b>。<b>申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，</b>因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>将公布新一季财报。</b></p>\n<p>新股方面，<b>社交元宇宙第一股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>将登陆纳斯达克上市。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——<b>美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。</b></p>\n<p>5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">医渡科技</a>将公布新一季财报</b>，投资者可作关注。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-20 18:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>经济数据方面：</b>中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>新股方面：</b>中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>事件方面：</b>美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>财报方面：</b>耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率</b></p>\n<p><b>周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。</b></p>\n<p>彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。</p>\n<p><b>中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。</b></p>\n<p><b>周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监&nbsp;Tom&nbsp;Mutton&nbsp;就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。</b></p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，</b>需要予以关注。</p>\n<p><b>周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。</p>\n<p>相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。</p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。</b>这将是市场关注的焦点所在。</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。</p>\n<p><b>周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b>。<b>市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据方面，投资者需要关注<b>美国的初请失业金人数变动</b>。<b>申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，</b>因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>将公布新一季财报。</b></p>\n<p>新股方面，<b>社交元宇宙第一股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>将登陆纳斯达克上市。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——<b>美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。</b></p>\n<p>5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">医渡科技</a>将公布新一季财报</b>，投资者可作关注。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129554767","content_text":"摘要：\n\n经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n\n\n新股方面：中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n\n\n事件方面：美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n\n\n财报方面：耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n\n周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率\n周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。\n彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。\n中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。\n周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监 Tom Mutton 就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。\n纽约时段，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，需要予以关注。\n周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。\n相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。\n纽约时段，美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。这将是市场关注的焦点所在。\n美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。\n周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值。市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。\n此外，美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报数据方面，投资者需要关注美国的初请失业金人数变动。申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。\n财报方面，耐克、黑莓、联邦快递将公布新一季财报。\n新股方面，社交元宇宙第一股Soul将登陆纳斯达克上市。\n此外，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。\n5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。\n财报方面，晶科能源、医渡科技将公布新一季财报，投资者可作关注。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164255489,"gmtCreate":1624213032141,"gmtModify":1703830715443,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164255489","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252755,"gmtCreate":1624212725777,"gmtModify":1703830714635,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is 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here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252591","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252262,"gmtCreate":1624212650956,"gmtModify":1703830713987,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","listText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","text":"tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252262","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120906827,"gmtCreate":1624290664769,"gmtModify":1703832712005,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906827","repostId":"1131452883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131452883","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624290305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131452883?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131452883","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.7","content":"<p>据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。</p>\n<p>截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。</p>\n<p>亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。</p>\n<p>2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n火花思维提交在美IPO申请，一季度营收增长202.7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 23:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。</p>\n<p>截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。</p>\n<p>亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。</p>\n<p>2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7186383295e35dbeed76b7df4bae0d3b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131452883","content_text":"据美国证券交易委员会文件：火花思维教育科技公司提交在美IPO申请，拟筹资达1亿美元，寻求在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为SPRK。\n招股书显示，火花思维2019年营收为1.95亿元，2020年营收为11.74亿元，年比增幅为502.1%；火花思维在2019年的净亏损为7.71亿元，2020年净亏损9.52亿元，近两年累计亏损17.23亿元。\n截止3月31日的第一季度，火花思维营收为4.54亿元，同比增长202.7%。一季度，火花思维净亏损为3.74亿元，同比2020年第一季度扩大78.95%。\n亏损主要来自于销售及市场营销费用支出的快速增长。招股书显示，2019年火花思维的销售及市场营销费用、研发费用和一般行政管理支出费用分别是2.36亿元、2.4亿元及1.28亿元；2020年，这三项支出分别是7.98亿元、3.27亿元和1.78亿元。\n2021年第一季度，火花思维的销售及市场营销费用支出为3.43亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长203.5%。研发投入为1.44亿元，同比2020年第一季度增长107.7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121298256,"gmtCreate":1624464379175,"gmtModify":1703837660944,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121298256","repostId":"1141331644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141331644","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624455055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141331644?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141331644","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p>\n<p>Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p>\n<p>At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p>\n<p>\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p>\n<p>For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p>\n<p>\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141331644","content_text":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 closed just shy of one.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.\nEnergy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.\nBitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.\nAt last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading.Big tech stocks mixed in morning trading.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.\n\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"\nFor June the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.\nLooking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.\n\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143961589,"gmtCreate":1625756139441,"gmtModify":1703748010879,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，read","listText":"，read","text":"，read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143961589","repostId":"1132708633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132708633","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625754621,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132708633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132708633","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。","content":"<p>作者：周欣瑜</p>\n<p>周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。</p>\n<p><b>看点一、SRF是个什么工具？</b></p>\n<p>其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。</p>\n<p>而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。</p>\n<p>该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）</p>\n<p>那么我们不仅要思考一下，<b><u>如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？</u></b>可能有以下两方面：</p>\n<p>1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。</p>\n<p>2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。</p>\n<p><b>看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高</b></p>\n<p>纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：</p>\n<p><b>1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”</b>这主要是源于疫情的风险。</p>\n<p><b>2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”</b></p>\n<p><b>3、</b>一些与会者认为，<b>“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”</b></p>\n<p><b>4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”</b></p>\n<p>整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。</p>\n<p><b>看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论</b></p>\n<p>纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：</p>\n<p>1、委员普遍认为<b>“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到</b>。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始<b>放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。</b></p>\n<p>2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。</p>\n<p>3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。</p>\n<p>4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-08 22:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132708633","content_text":"作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。\n而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。\n该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）\n那么我们不仅要思考一下，如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？可能有以下两方面：\n1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。\n2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。\n看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高\n纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：\n1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”这主要是源于疫情的风险。\n2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”\n3、一些与会者认为，“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”\n4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”\n整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。\n看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论\n纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：\n1、委员普遍认为“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。\n2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。\n3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。\n4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121292171,"gmtCreate":1624464418893,"gmtModify":1703837663692,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121292171","repostId":"2145950390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145950390","pubTimestamp":1624454400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145950390?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145950390","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's important to own shares of high-quality businesses.","content":"<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.</p>\n<p>Buffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83be5a41077ce17c2e4391b5b8225228\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>\n<p>Verizon Communications</p>\n<p><b>Verizon Communications </b>(NYSE:VZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.</p>\n<p>Verizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.</p>\n<p>The steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.</p>\n<h3>General Motors</h3>\n<p><b>General Motors </b>(NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.</p>\n<p>Fast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.</p>\n<p>General Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.</p>\n<h3>Kroger</h3>\n<p>Finally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant <b>Kroger </b>(NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.</p>\n<p>Kroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.</p>\n<p>With an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.</p>\n<h3>Be ready for the crash</h3>\n<p>The stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","KR":"克罗格","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GM":"通用汽车","VZ":"威瑞森"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145950390","content_text":"It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.\nBuffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.\n\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\nVerizon Communications\nVerizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), one of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.\nVerizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.\nThe steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is one of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.\nGeneral Motors\nGeneral Motors (NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.\nFast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.\nGeneral Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.\nKroger\nFinally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant Kroger (NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.\nKroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.\nWith an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.\nBe ready for the crash\nThe stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121823473,"gmtCreate":1624459212392,"gmtModify":1703837447499,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>no worry at all","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$no worry at all","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a881ae781a0e79743b5abb7cc0f1b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121823473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121138299,"gmtCreate":1624456271811,"gmtModify":1703837249195,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>up more plz","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$up more plz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247438475cf04c0346e8c199e2c2d3a3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121138299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129580417,"gmtCreate":1624377590539,"gmtModify":1703835014925,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129580417","repostId":"1113483599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113483599","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624375257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113483599?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113483599","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n\n\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","content":"<p>据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。</p>\n<p>两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：李佳琦、薇娅所属公司均在计划进行IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 23:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。</p>\n<p>两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113483599","content_text":"据知情人士透露，中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美One正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。与此同时据另一位知情人士透露，薇娅的母公司谦寻集团(Qianxun)也在计划IPO。这两笔IPO有望揭开中国最大、最具活力的互联网竞技场之一的面纱。\n两家公司的审议都处于早期阶段，美One没有回应记者多次的置评请求，而谦寻拒绝置评。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120906768,"gmtCreate":1624290701254,"gmtModify":1703832716818,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said...","listText":"Well said...","text":"Well said...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120906768","repostId":"1189217015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189217015","pubTimestamp":1624285381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189217015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189217015","media":"极客公园","summary":"文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面","content":"<p>文／赵子潇</p>\n<p>产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。</p>\n<p>作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。</p>\n<p>这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；为了让汽车达到很夸张的加速，特斯拉采用了一款带有碳纤维涂层的新型电机，使得它能让两吨重的汽车快速起步。</p>\n<p>在炫酷的配置之外，对于车内的智能化，特斯拉也加入自己的想法。一个比较惊艳的功能是，Model S Plaid 取消了挡杆，传统意义上的换挡，被车内的触摸屏取代了。并且，特斯拉加入了自动换挡功能，一步到位，从手动换挡升级到了直接开车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e3ed7ff3431cac0db49afa34b3e71c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Model S Plaid取消了物理挡杆，车内配置进一步简化|特斯拉</p>\n<p>听起来，特斯拉开始了又一次的“革命式创新”，但这项功能也会遭遇一些争议。特斯拉官方并没有特别强调自动换挡功能如何实现，也只有极少人实际体验过，因此会遭到安全方面的质疑。</p>\n<p>但这不妨碍特斯拉迈出了一项科技功能的第一步。它是全球第一款没有挡杆的汽车，恐怕也不只是为了作秀，还有更深远的意义在。</p>\n<p><b>取消挡杆，自动换挡，车还怎么开？</b></p>\n<p>电动汽车逐渐成为汽车行业的主流产品，但也有人旗帜鲜明地站在电动汽车的对立面，反对的其中一条理由就是：电动汽车失去了驾驶的乐趣。</p>\n<p>这种说法不无道理，一些电动汽车甚至要靠音响来模拟发动机的声音，因为有些人觉得电动车内部实在太安静，不像在开车。但反过来想，也正因为电动带起的智能化，无形之中让开车这件事变得方便了许多。</p>\n<p>就拿特斯拉 Model S Plaid 这款车来说，你甚至不用握住挡杆前后推动，只要在中控大屏上上下滑动，就能完成挡位切换。</p>\n<p>这是汽车设计的一次不小的创新。根据特斯拉官方演示，在中控大屏最左侧一列，司机只要向上划，就切换到D挡，向下划则切换到R挡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab60bc02b5b7de87b4e32be9e923cce5\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">在触摸屏上下划就可以换挡，是 Model S Plaid 最大的特色之一 |Twitter</p>\n<p>把硬件电子化甚至虚拟化，成为了汽车行业的一个趋势，从设计角度上看，也有种简约的美观。但有时也会遇到限制。把传统的后视镜简化成为一个摄像头，也是一种趋势，但在中国和美国，这个功能还不被法规所允许。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42e87b21e459fefbe1c1236585537c9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奥迪e-tron的虚拟后视镜，在中国和美国仍不被法规认可|奥迪</p>\n<p>但有趣的是，触摸屏上换挡这个功能是被允许的。NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）在一份声明中表示，他们了解特斯拉开发的系统并表示通过触摸屏界面操作的变速箱换挡控制配置正确不会违反联邦机动车安全标准。</p>\n<p>为了避免中控大屏有时会宕机，除了触摸屏，在中控台处也有挡位选择按键，作为一套“备份”系统。相比其他汽车只有一种换挡方式，特斯拉 Model S Plaid 提供了三种，数量上保证了这套系统不会出现问题。最后一种也是这款车型的“杀手锏”——自动换挡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f532a66cba86335450ea40fd3e906\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Model S Plaid自动换挡功能|特斯拉</p>\n<p>顾名思义，它可以根据周围环境进行检测，从而了解判断此时应该换到什么挡位。听起来比较科幻，但了解原理之后会发现，其实功能没有想象中那么复杂。</p>\n<p>举个例子，当汽车与手机绑定之后，如果汽车能在一定距离之内感应到手机，说明车主马上要上车，这时车辆就可以自动解锁。原理大致相同，自动换挡功能是与 Autopilot 辅助驾驶功能高度结合的。</p>\n<p>比如车辆前方有一堵墙，车辆的摄像头已经识别出前方有障碍物，那么唯一的办法就是倒车。同样，如果汽车感应到前方没有物体挡路，它也可以从停车挡位切换到驾驶模式。当汽车停下来、司机安全带解开，并且车门打开，汽车就会自动换到停车挡；另外，汽车在驾驶模式下一分钟没有移动，系统也会自动切到停车挡。</p>\n<p>由此可见，自动换挡是存在一定规律的。它需要在满足一些固定条件下才能完成。为了安全起见，特斯拉规定在停车模式下、司机安全带已系好、踩下制动踏板、所有车门和后备箱已关闭等一系列条件之下，才可以使用自动换挡功能。</p>\n<p><b>完成自动驾驶的第一步</b></p>\n<p>需要注意的是，自动换挡仍然是一项不完善的功能，特斯拉也没有大肆宣传，功能上也处理的比较谨慎。在 Model S Plaid 用户手册中，特斯拉指出自动换挡是一项 BETA 功能，默认情况下处于禁用状态。人们对这项新功能似乎还需要熟悉一下，才能熟练操作。</p>\n<p>的确，每一项功能的迭代都需要长时间的切换。自动挡汽车的出现，就抵消掉了一些开车的门槛，让更方便快捷的驾驶方式流行起来。</p>\n<p>从手动挡进化到自动挡，再到自动换挡功能的出现，除了代表设计简化的趋势，背后其实代表着发动机的逐步进化，再转变到电机，核心硬件也越来越简单，导致软件在其中的重要性逐步增加。</p>\n<p>不难理解，软件定义汽车的趋势在扩大，反馈到用户体验时，就意味着让人变“懒”，无需做一些重复的、基本的动作。这是科技发展给人们带来的最核心的改变。</p>\n<p>试想一下，以后人们开车可能只用到油门和方向盘，其他都不需要，是不是可以直接联想到汽车的下一个阶段：自动驾驶？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca650a574a30b6bfda2d6e74c177d4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">对于Model S Plaid的新方向盘，已经有人开始玩梗|网络</p>\n<p>看起来，特斯拉在某些方面的确有些激进，取消物理挡杆，方向盘设置成为方形，不管从传统的人体工学和使用习惯来看，都是反着来的。</p>\n<p>在一些社交媒体上，不断有人质疑，yoke 方向盘只是马斯克为了博眼球而提供的设计，在车辆掉头或者大幅度转弯时，方形方向盘对于人们的握持操作来说不一定安全。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611031209beaa0c94f220f6f7080ae32\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">非圆形方向盘掉头的尴尬|youtube</p>\n<p>但是从机器的视角来看，这个改变不存在什么硬伤。如果让自动驾驶系统来操控汽车，那么减少人类的动作意味着车辆全部走向电子化，让软件可以控制车辆的更多功能。</p>\n<p>回到汽车上，就是把所有“原子”变成“比特”，也就是把所有物理形态的零部件融合在电子化、自动化的按键里。Model S Plaid 的方向盘上只有两颗实体按键，其他都是需要用力触摸才得到反馈的虚拟按键。不少功能都需要大屏、仪表盘和实体按键的配合才能完成，即便熟悉科技产品的人也需要适应一下，但对于机器来说，这些都不太成问题。</p>\n<p>“Autopilot 作为量产车里辅助驾驶体验最好的系统之一，接下来需要车辆本身与自动驾驶系统进一步的适配，Model S Plaid 就是在这方面的尝试。车辆适配，自动驾驶系统升级，再针对性地调整，达到更高级的自动驾驶系统。”一位自动驾驶行业从业者向极客公园表示。</p>\n<p>一些具有争议的功能，看似“反人类”的设计，也许是特斯拉这家企业为了终极目标而做出的一次硬核技术铺垫。</p>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉砍掉挡杆，自动驾驶已经开始改变人类？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 22:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。\n这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35095c7a9e12e0226dab622d85302d4e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i4upSTM_2d19LefBB_7G5w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189217015","content_text":"文／赵子潇\n产品线5年没有过更新、售价是Model 3的五倍，106 万人民币的特斯拉Model S Plaid开始交付了。\n作为特斯拉大规模量产车型中的高端产品，Model S Plaid 在各方面都满足了当下电动汽车对于速度和动力的探索，0-60 英里加速 1.99 秒，是目前全球电动汽车当中的王者。\n这款车有许多令人称道的地方，比如它的大屏内置AMD芯片，甚至可以玩《赛博朋克 2077》；为了让汽车达到很夸张的加速，特斯拉采用了一款带有碳纤维涂层的新型电机，使得它能让两吨重的汽车快速起步。\n在炫酷的配置之外，对于车内的智能化，特斯拉也加入自己的想法。一个比较惊艳的功能是，Model S Plaid 取消了挡杆，传统意义上的换挡，被车内的触摸屏取代了。并且，特斯拉加入了自动换挡功能，一步到位，从手动换挡升级到了直接开车。\nModel S Plaid取消了物理挡杆，车内配置进一步简化|特斯拉\n听起来，特斯拉开始了又一次的“革命式创新”，但这项功能也会遭遇一些争议。特斯拉官方并没有特别强调自动换挡功能如何实现，也只有极少人实际体验过，因此会遭到安全方面的质疑。\n但这不妨碍特斯拉迈出了一项科技功能的第一步。它是全球第一款没有挡杆的汽车，恐怕也不只是为了作秀，还有更深远的意义在。\n取消挡杆，自动换挡，车还怎么开？\n电动汽车逐渐成为汽车行业的主流产品，但也有人旗帜鲜明地站在电动汽车的对立面，反对的其中一条理由就是：电动汽车失去了驾驶的乐趣。\n这种说法不无道理，一些电动汽车甚至要靠音响来模拟发动机的声音，因为有些人觉得电动车内部实在太安静，不像在开车。但反过来想，也正因为电动带起的智能化，无形之中让开车这件事变得方便了许多。\n就拿特斯拉 Model S Plaid 这款车来说，你甚至不用握住挡杆前后推动，只要在中控大屏上上下滑动，就能完成挡位切换。\n这是汽车设计的一次不小的创新。根据特斯拉官方演示，在中控大屏最左侧一列，司机只要向上划，就切换到D挡，向下划则切换到R挡。\n在触摸屏上下划就可以换挡，是 Model S Plaid 最大的特色之一 |Twitter\n把硬件电子化甚至虚拟化，成为了汽车行业的一个趋势，从设计角度上看，也有种简约的美观。但有时也会遇到限制。把传统的后视镜简化成为一个摄像头，也是一种趋势，但在中国和美国，这个功能还不被法规所允许。\n奥迪e-tron的虚拟后视镜，在中国和美国仍不被法规认可|奥迪\n但有趣的是，触摸屏上换挡这个功能是被允许的。NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）在一份声明中表示，他们了解特斯拉开发的系统并表示通过触摸屏界面操作的变速箱换挡控制配置正确不会违反联邦机动车安全标准。\n为了避免中控大屏有时会宕机，除了触摸屏，在中控台处也有挡位选择按键，作为一套“备份”系统。相比其他汽车只有一种换挡方式，特斯拉 Model S Plaid 提供了三种，数量上保证了这套系统不会出现问题。最后一种也是这款车型的“杀手锏”——自动换挡。\nModel S Plaid自动换挡功能|特斯拉\n顾名思义，它可以根据周围环境进行检测，从而了解判断此时应该换到什么挡位。听起来比较科幻，但了解原理之后会发现，其实功能没有想象中那么复杂。\n举个例子，当汽车与手机绑定之后，如果汽车能在一定距离之内感应到手机，说明车主马上要上车，这时车辆就可以自动解锁。原理大致相同，自动换挡功能是与 Autopilot 辅助驾驶功能高度结合的。\n比如车辆前方有一堵墙，车辆的摄像头已经识别出前方有障碍物，那么唯一的办法就是倒车。同样，如果汽车感应到前方没有物体挡路，它也可以从停车挡位切换到驾驶模式。当汽车停下来、司机安全带解开，并且车门打开，汽车就会自动换到停车挡；另外，汽车在驾驶模式下一分钟没有移动，系统也会自动切到停车挡。\n由此可见，自动换挡是存在一定规律的。它需要在满足一些固定条件下才能完成。为了安全起见，特斯拉规定在停车模式下、司机安全带已系好、踩下制动踏板、所有车门和后备箱已关闭等一系列条件之下，才可以使用自动换挡功能。\n完成自动驾驶的第一步\n需要注意的是，自动换挡仍然是一项不完善的功能，特斯拉也没有大肆宣传，功能上也处理的比较谨慎。在 Model S Plaid 用户手册中，特斯拉指出自动换挡是一项 BETA 功能，默认情况下处于禁用状态。人们对这项新功能似乎还需要熟悉一下，才能熟练操作。\n的确，每一项功能的迭代都需要长时间的切换。自动挡汽车的出现，就抵消掉了一些开车的门槛，让更方便快捷的驾驶方式流行起来。\n从手动挡进化到自动挡，再到自动换挡功能的出现，除了代表设计简化的趋势，背后其实代表着发动机的逐步进化，再转变到电机，核心硬件也越来越简单，导致软件在其中的重要性逐步增加。\n不难理解，软件定义汽车的趋势在扩大，反馈到用户体验时，就意味着让人变“懒”，无需做一些重复的、基本的动作。这是科技发展给人们带来的最核心的改变。\n试想一下，以后人们开车可能只用到油门和方向盘，其他都不需要，是不是可以直接联想到汽车的下一个阶段：自动驾驶？\n对于Model S Plaid的新方向盘，已经有人开始玩梗|网络\n看起来，特斯拉在某些方面的确有些激进，取消物理挡杆，方向盘设置成为方形，不管从传统的人体工学和使用习惯来看，都是反着来的。\n在一些社交媒体上，不断有人质疑，yoke 方向盘只是马斯克为了博眼球而提供的设计，在车辆掉头或者大幅度转弯时，方形方向盘对于人们的握持操作来说不一定安全。\n非圆形方向盘掉头的尴尬|youtube\n但是从机器的视角来看，这个改变不存在什么硬伤。如果让自动驾驶系统来操控汽车，那么减少人类的动作意味着车辆全部走向电子化，让软件可以控制车辆的更多功能。\n回到汽车上，就是把所有“原子”变成“比特”，也就是把所有物理形态的零部件融合在电子化、自动化的按键里。Model S Plaid 的方向盘上只有两颗实体按键，其他都是需要用力触摸才得到反馈的虚拟按键。不少功能都需要大屏、仪表盘和实体按键的配合才能完成，即便熟悉科技产品的人也需要适应一下，但对于机器来说，这些都不太成问题。\n“Autopilot 作为量产车里辅助驾驶体验最好的系统之一，接下来需要车辆本身与自动驾驶系统进一步的适配，Model S Plaid 就是在这方面的尝试。车辆适配，自动驾驶系统升级，再针对性地调整，达到更高级的自动驾驶系统。”一位自动驾驶行业从业者向极客公园表示。\n一些具有争议的功能，看似“反人类”的设计，也许是特斯拉这家企业为了终极目标而做出的一次硬核技术铺垫。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121866234,"gmtCreate":1624458977428,"gmtModify":1703837436627,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"read","listText":"read","text":"read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121866234","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368241,"gmtCreate":1624454380383,"gmtModify":1703837154218,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368241","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145283099","pubTimestamp":1624452600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145283099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145283099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales fell off a cliff, and so did the stock price.","content":"<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.</p>\n<p>Other cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. <b>Ethereum</b> (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.</p>\n<p>Graphics chip developer <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eae70fe3111cdeb0fe2fe15c5e5fcf3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.</p>\n<p>What happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.</p>\n<h3>From shortage to supply glut</h3>\n<p>The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?</p>\n<p>NVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F631439%2Fnvidia-gaming-revenue-crypto.png&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.</p>\n<p>The crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.</p>\n<p>\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.</p>\n<p>Kress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"</p>\n<p>What's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.</p>\n<p>Actual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.</p>\n<p>Just like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872169a76058d1b9cde031da052b3211\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>\n<p>NVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145283099","content_text":"It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.\nOther cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.\nGraphics chip developer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.\nWhat happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.\nFrom shortage to supply glut\nThe price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?\nNVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.\n\nChart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.\nThe crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.\n\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.\nKress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"\nWhat's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.\nActual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.\nJust like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.\n\nNVDA data by YCharts\nNVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164243612,"gmtCreate":1624213740536,"gmtModify":1703830722277,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let see","listText":"Let see","text":"Let see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164243612","repostId":"2144943706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144943706","pubTimestamp":1624149308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144943706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 08:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144943706","media":"雷达财经","summary":"电商进入巨头混战时代","content":"<p>今年的618，格局生变。</p>\n<p>媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。</p>\n<p>行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。</p>\n<p>如今，在天猫、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等传统平台之外，还加入了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>和快手这样的新势力。整个行业重新轮回到补贴拉新+基建投入补短板时期。资本开支加大、增收不增利成为中短期常态。</p>\n<p>电商巨头价值也出现重估。雷达财经梳理发现，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>美股自去年618至今，股价下跌了5.64%，京东同期涨18.35%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。</p>\n<h3><b>抖音、快手加入618混战</b></h3>\n<p>这次618大促，电商行业告别了过去天猫、京东和拼多多三分天下的局面，进入到与抖音、快手同台竞技阶段。短视频两大巨头抢食电商业务，并不让人意外。</p>\n<p>长期来看，将流量作为变现来源永远不会安全，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>就是一例。目前短视频平台成熟变现方式包括会员订阅、直播打赏的增值服务模式，卖广告给B端客户和电商佣金模式。</p>\n<p>其中，电商是空间最大、效率最高、确定性最强的变现路径。因此从2018年起，抖音、快手都将电商作为战略级投入方向，前者在去年618前夕成立电商事业部，成为字节的一级部门；后者高举高打，对直播电商的投入以及重视程度，更远大于抖音。</p>\n<p>抖音起初与淘宝合作，扮演的是流量管道的角色。双方合作背后也有博弈，于是从2019年开始互相在导流上设置了一定门槛。后来抖音决定做电商闭环，彻底封锁了第三方平台商品链接，组建自己的电商生态。</p>\n<p>据媒体报道，今年5月份，抖音电商又与京东达成年度200亿GMV的合作，这被看做是抖音加强其缺少的成熟电商体系和供应链措施。</p>\n<p>联手淘宝、京东之外，抖音电商也在发力补齐自身的供应链短板。据Tech星球报道，近期引入多位从阿里离职的供应链方向高级别人才，同时在广东、云南、浙江等全国多省拿地建仓。</p>\n<p>而且从今年打出的“兴趣电商”概念来看，可以理解抖音电商还是依赖算法精准匹配，基于“货找人”的逻辑帮助用户发现潜在需求。目前各大平台都有海量商品池，消费者从中选出高性价比物品耗时费力，而迎合用户偏好来推荐、激发购物欲望的兴趣模式，和信息爆炸时代的兴趣阅读有着相似之处，不失为解决消费者购物倦怠的一种方式。</p>\n<p>当然营收规模已很庞大的字节，似乎不急于追求规模。抖音电商总裁康泽宇之前公开表示，“对于现阶段的抖音电商来说，GMV不是第一指标。完善平台对商家的基础服务能力，为用户提供极致的购买保障、客服体验才是现阶段抖音电商的重中之重。”</p>\n<p>快手从2018年起与淘宝打通购物车，去年5月又和京东签约，用户可以直接从快手小店进入京东自营店，由主播选品销售，并享受京东提供的配送、售后。</p>\n<p>根据官方公布数据，2021年第一季度，快手电商GMV达到1186亿元，同比增长219.8%。不过快手的直播带货场景下，主播成为一大变量。老铁文化下成长起来的带货主播，素质良莠不齐，有些主播甚至明知商品质量不过关还要推销。618前夕，有用户在快手“驴嫂平荣”的店里买到了“山寨”朵唯手机。</p>\n<p>虽然快手处理及时果断，永久清退朵唯所有产品。但在业内人士看来，目前快手官方没有能力控制平台的假冒伪劣商品，封禁主播只是平台治理逻辑，不触及问题的本质。</p>\n<p>这也是为什么6月1日，快手联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视打造的晚会以“极致信任”为主题，快手电商平台和主播都急需用户的信任。</p>\n<h3><b>阿里股价“退”拼多多“进”</b></h3>\n<p>新对手涌入的同时，老玩家的发展境况也各不相同。阿里在被巨罚冲击之后，还需直面拼多多崛起带来的挑战。2020年末及今年第一季度，拼多多年度活跃用户数量连续两季超越阿里，今年一季度拼多多年度活跃买家数8.238亿，阿里为8.11亿。</p>\n<p>拼多多毫不隐藏成为中国“电商一哥”的野心，新任CEO陈磊在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说：“拼多多的计划是继续投入补贴，直到取代阿里巴巴成为十亿中国消费者的首选购物平台。”</p>\n<p>尽管阿里还有云计算、菜鸟物流这样盈利潜力强劲的业务，但它再也不是电商领域曾经的超级存在，被迫参与到一场不得不打的下沉市场争夺战中。5月的财报电话会上，阿里CFO武卫称：“如今这么多竞争对手都在通过巨大的亏损来投资重要的领域，而阿里创造的价值和阿里已有的资源没理由让我们不投。”</p>\n<p>投入一方面是补贴拉新，2021年第一季度阿里销售费用率提升至14%，为2018年以来新高。另一方面是在新一轮电商及新零售基础设施方向上投入。随着电商增长天花板渐渐逼近，碎片化的线下消费开始被巨头们重视，社区团购作为未来电商版图中的重要一块拼图，没人能忽视。</p>\n<p>因此围绕新业态继续对现有物流设施完善，对本地即时配送网络进行迭代，以及对以生鲜为代表的社区零售在供给侧高效匹配，平台设施的完善程度和效率，成为巨头下一轮比拼的关键。</p>\n<p>但对未来竞争优势的执著投入，无疑会拖累阿里的财务表现。阿里巴巴董事局主席张勇就表示，阿里决定在新财年将业务增长所带来的所有新增利润都投入到重点战略领域。这种不确定性反应在了股价上，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今下跌了5.64%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。</p>\n<p>相对而言，京东是反垄断监管的受益者，过去“二选一”的商家可以重回京东开店，借助微信资源开拓的下沉市场用户，成为公司新的增长点。另外，京东具备的数字化技术、供应链和物流基础设施，让其有了赋能B端的能力。</p>\n<p>但值得关注的是，5月19日举行的一季度业绩电话会议上，京东管理层透露出，集团仍将致力于社区团购业务的投资，但不会像部分竞争对手一样大量投资。据了解，目前京东社区团购业务仅覆盖全国17个省份，远远落后于市场先行者。</p>\n<p>野村证券认为，尽管社区团购市场看似前景光明，但京东似乎并不具备与行业巨头展开正面交锋所需的资源。</p>\n<p>京东对社区团购的谨慎态度，和两年前对待直播电商相似。据棱镜报道，2019年下半年，直播在京东内部还被定性为“伪风口”。彼时，京东零售CEO徐雷在宿迁面对包括作者在内的媒体讲道，直播电商不是常态的、稳定的供应链。但时至今日，直播带货已站稳电商C位，反而映衬出京东在内容和流量上的缺位。</p>\n<p>好在京东的“优势”在于，它从来都不是行业老大，不是舆论关注的焦点，同时也具备足够深的品牌、供应链和物流护城河。但当所有商家转向直播，巨头都在加码社区团购的时候，京东还能“专心搞钱”吗？</p>\n<p>股价方面，去年618至今的一年时间里，京东在美股上涨18.35%，同期纳斯达克指数涨幅42.89%。</p>\n<p>事实上，在巨头们的战略研判中，社区团购不仅仅是“几捆菜”的事，生鲜买菜只是社区零售的一个方面。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>研报的分析，社区团购本质上切的是高频、低客单、高复购、刚需的生鲜与日用零售品电商市场份额。</p>\n<p>未来的电商版图将由线上实物、外卖到家服务、社区（生鲜）零售三位一体构成。这也意味着零售的概念扩大了，传统电商平台的边界也有了延伸的可能，巨头们看到了更大的蛋糕。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>将中国消费市场划分为传统零售（20-25万亿）、数字化新零售（10-15万亿）、本地生活服务（20-25万亿）三个部分，随着消费和服务边界逐渐模糊，这是一个规模有望达到60万亿的大市场。</p>\n<p>在社会消费版图朝这个方向演进时，巨头互抢地盘时有发生。京东零售集团首席执行官徐雷在618前夕公开表示，如今主体为电商或者非电商的企业，都发现零售业是最有可能穿越经济周期的行业之一，纷纷涌入进来。</p>\n<p>巨头激战正酣，谁能笑到最后，让我们拭目以待。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n618格局生变，抖音快手加入战团，阿里地位面临挑战\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 08:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439><strong>雷达财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年的618，格局生变。\n媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。\n行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。\n如今，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83c96a071b225e670f1b11b79c4a3e91","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1275287659954439","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144943706","content_text":"今年的618，格局生变。\n媒体报道中，消费者是疲惫应对、躺平状态，没了狂欢的味道；商家的声势也在减弱、放低姿态，氛围低调了许多。\n行业人士认为，直播带货常态化之下，消费者可随时在直播间买到低价产品，618的促销优势不在。而反垄断重锤之下，过去电商行业极度内卷的过度营销、恶性竞争、“二选一”等形式得以抑制，取而代之的是抓运营、补品类、完善体验，平台希望从自身出发增强对品牌方和消费者的吸引力。\n如今，在天猫、京东、拼多多等传统平台之外，还加入了抖音和快手这样的新势力。整个行业重新轮回到补贴拉新+基建投入补短板时期。资本开支加大、增收不增利成为中短期常态。\n电商巨头价值也出现重估。雷达财经梳理发现，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今，股价下跌了5.64%，京东同期涨18.35%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。\n抖音、快手加入618混战\n这次618大促，电商行业告别了过去天猫、京东和拼多多三分天下的局面，进入到与抖音、快手同台竞技阶段。短视频两大巨头抢食电商业务，并不让人意外。\n长期来看，将流量作为变现来源永远不会安全，百度就是一例。目前短视频平台成熟变现方式包括会员订阅、直播打赏的增值服务模式，卖广告给B端客户和电商佣金模式。\n其中，电商是空间最大、效率最高、确定性最强的变现路径。因此从2018年起，抖音、快手都将电商作为战略级投入方向，前者在去年618前夕成立电商事业部，成为字节的一级部门；后者高举高打，对直播电商的投入以及重视程度，更远大于抖音。\n抖音起初与淘宝合作，扮演的是流量管道的角色。双方合作背后也有博弈，于是从2019年开始互相在导流上设置了一定门槛。后来抖音决定做电商闭环，彻底封锁了第三方平台商品链接，组建自己的电商生态。\n据媒体报道，今年5月份，抖音电商又与京东达成年度200亿GMV的合作，这被看做是抖音加强其缺少的成熟电商体系和供应链措施。\n联手淘宝、京东之外，抖音电商也在发力补齐自身的供应链短板。据Tech星球报道，近期引入多位从阿里离职的供应链方向高级别人才，同时在广东、云南、浙江等全国多省拿地建仓。\n而且从今年打出的“兴趣电商”概念来看，可以理解抖音电商还是依赖算法精准匹配，基于“货找人”的逻辑帮助用户发现潜在需求。目前各大平台都有海量商品池，消费者从中选出高性价比物品耗时费力，而迎合用户偏好来推荐、激发购物欲望的兴趣模式，和信息爆炸时代的兴趣阅读有着相似之处，不失为解决消费者购物倦怠的一种方式。\n当然营收规模已很庞大的字节，似乎不急于追求规模。抖音电商总裁康泽宇之前公开表示，“对于现阶段的抖音电商来说，GMV不是第一指标。完善平台对商家的基础服务能力，为用户提供极致的购买保障、客服体验才是现阶段抖音电商的重中之重。”\n快手从2018年起与淘宝打通购物车，去年5月又和京东签约，用户可以直接从快手小店进入京东自营店，由主播选品销售，并享受京东提供的配送、售后。\n根据官方公布数据，2021年第一季度，快手电商GMV达到1186亿元，同比增长219.8%。不过快手的直播带货场景下，主播成为一大变量。老铁文化下成长起来的带货主播，素质良莠不齐，有些主播甚至明知商品质量不过关还要推销。618前夕，有用户在快手“驴嫂平荣”的店里买到了“山寨”朵唯手机。\n虽然快手处理及时果断，永久清退朵唯所有产品。但在业内人士看来，目前快手官方没有能力控制平台的假冒伪劣商品，封禁主播只是平台治理逻辑，不触及问题的本质。\n这也是为什么6月1日，快手联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视打造的晚会以“极致信任”为主题，快手电商平台和主播都急需用户的信任。\n阿里股价“退”拼多多“进”\n新对手涌入的同时，老玩家的发展境况也各不相同。阿里在被巨罚冲击之后，还需直面拼多多崛起带来的挑战。2020年末及今年第一季度，拼多多年度活跃用户数量连续两季超越阿里，今年一季度拼多多年度活跃买家数8.238亿，阿里为8.11亿。\n拼多多毫不隐藏成为中国“电商一哥”的野心，新任CEO陈磊在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说：“拼多多的计划是继续投入补贴，直到取代阿里巴巴成为十亿中国消费者的首选购物平台。”\n尽管阿里还有云计算、菜鸟物流这样盈利潜力强劲的业务，但它再也不是电商领域曾经的超级存在，被迫参与到一场不得不打的下沉市场争夺战中。5月的财报电话会上，阿里CFO武卫称：“如今这么多竞争对手都在通过巨大的亏损来投资重要的领域，而阿里创造的价值和阿里已有的资源没理由让我们不投。”\n投入一方面是补贴拉新，2021年第一季度阿里销售费用率提升至14%，为2018年以来新高。另一方面是在新一轮电商及新零售基础设施方向上投入。随着电商增长天花板渐渐逼近，碎片化的线下消费开始被巨头们重视，社区团购作为未来电商版图中的重要一块拼图，没人能忽视。\n因此围绕新业态继续对现有物流设施完善，对本地即时配送网络进行迭代，以及对以生鲜为代表的社区零售在供给侧高效匹配，平台设施的完善程度和效率，成为巨头下一轮比拼的关键。\n但对未来竞争优势的执著投入，无疑会拖累阿里的财务表现。阿里巴巴董事局主席张勇就表示，阿里决定在新财年将业务增长所带来的所有新增利润都投入到重点战略领域。这种不确定性反应在了股价上，阿里巴巴美股自去年618至今下跌了5.64%，拼多多则大涨72.06%。\n相对而言，京东是反垄断监管的受益者，过去“二选一”的商家可以重回京东开店，借助微信资源开拓的下沉市场用户，成为公司新的增长点。另外，京东具备的数字化技术、供应链和物流基础设施，让其有了赋能B端的能力。\n但值得关注的是，5月19日举行的一季度业绩电话会议上，京东管理层透露出，集团仍将致力于社区团购业务的投资，但不会像部分竞争对手一样大量投资。据了解，目前京东社区团购业务仅覆盖全国17个省份，远远落后于市场先行者。\n野村证券认为，尽管社区团购市场看似前景光明，但京东似乎并不具备与行业巨头展开正面交锋所需的资源。\n京东对社区团购的谨慎态度，和两年前对待直播电商相似。据棱镜报道，2019年下半年，直播在京东内部还被定性为“伪风口”。彼时，京东零售CEO徐雷在宿迁面对包括作者在内的媒体讲道，直播电商不是常态的、稳定的供应链。但时至今日，直播带货已站稳电商C位，反而映衬出京东在内容和流量上的缺位。\n好在京东的“优势”在于，它从来都不是行业老大，不是舆论关注的焦点，同时也具备足够深的品牌、供应链和物流护城河。但当所有商家转向直播，巨头都在加码社区团购的时候，京东还能“专心搞钱”吗？\n股价方面，去年618至今的一年时间里，京东在美股上涨18.35%，同期纳斯达克指数涨幅42.89%。\n事实上，在巨头们的战略研判中，社区团购不仅仅是“几捆菜”的事，生鲜买菜只是社区零售的一个方面。根据国泰君安研报的分析，社区团购本质上切的是高频、低客单、高复购、刚需的生鲜与日用零售品电商市场份额。\n未来的电商版图将由线上实物、外卖到家服务、社区（生鲜）零售三位一体构成。这也意味着零售的概念扩大了，传统电商平台的边界也有了延伸的可能，巨头们看到了更大的蛋糕。\n国泰君安将中国消费市场划分为传统零售（20-25万亿）、数字化新零售（10-15万亿）、本地生活服务（20-25万亿）三个部分，随着消费和服务边界逐渐模糊，这是一个规模有望达到60万亿的大市场。\n在社会消费版图朝这个方向演进时，巨头互抢地盘时有发生。京东零售集团首席执行官徐雷在618前夕公开表示，如今主体为电商或者非电商的企业，都发现零售业是最有可能穿越经济周期的行业之一，纷纷涌入进来。\n巨头激战正酣，谁能笑到最后，让我们拭目以待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249657,"gmtCreate":1624213594879,"gmtModify":1703830721442,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249657","repostId":"2144706272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144706272","pubTimestamp":1624242918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144706272?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"新式茶饮第一股，奈雪的茶值多少钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。</p>\n<p>作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。</p>\n<p>影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。</p>\n<p>先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。</p>\n<p>奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。</p>\n<p>在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？</p>\n<p>2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。</p>\n<p>一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？</p>\n<p>一种我们可以看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。</p>\n<p>从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。</p>\n<p>从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。</p>\n<p>所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。</p>\n<p>但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。</p>\n<p>行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。</p>\n<p>那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？</p>\n<p>个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。</p>\n<p>先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。</p>\n<p>这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。</p>\n<p>供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。</p>\n<p>咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。</p>\n<p>奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。</p>\n<p>人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。</p>\n<p>这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。</p>\n<p>第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。</p>\n<p>奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。</p>\n<p>有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>8个多点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>10个点左右。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。</p>\n<p>那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？</p>\n<p>从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。</p>\n<p>星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。</p>\n<p>香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。</p>\n<p>相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。</p>\n<p>奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。</p>\n<p>当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。</p>\n<p>因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。</p>\n<p>按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新式茶饮第一股，奈雪的茶值多少钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164249883,"gmtCreate":1624213572142,"gmtModify":1703830721279,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164249883","repostId":"1129554767","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129554767","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624183832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129554767?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 18:10","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129554767","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。","content":"<p><b>摘要：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>经济数据方面：</b>中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>新股方面：</b>中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>事件方面：</b>美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>财报方面：</b>耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率</b></p>\n<p><b>周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。</b></p>\n<p>彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。</p>\n<p><b>中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。</b></p>\n<p><b>周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监&nbsp;Tom&nbsp;Mutton&nbsp;就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。</b></p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，</b>需要予以关注。</p>\n<p><b>周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。</p>\n<p>相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。</p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。</b>这将是市场关注的焦点所在。</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。</p>\n<p><b>周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b>。<b>市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据方面，投资者需要关注<b>美国的初请失业金人数变动</b>。<b>申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，</b>因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>将公布新一季财报。</b></p>\n<p>新股方面，<b>社交元宇宙第一股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>将登陆纳斯达克上市。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——<b>美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。</b></p>\n<p>5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">医渡科技</a>将公布新一季财报</b>，投资者可作关注。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：鲍威尔携手美国核心通胀数据重磅来袭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-20 18:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>经济数据方面：</b>中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>新股方面：</b>中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>事件方面：</b>美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>财报方面：</b>耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率</b></p>\n<p><b>周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。</b></p>\n<p>彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。</p>\n<p><b>中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。</b></p>\n<p><b>周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监&nbsp;Tom&nbsp;Mutton&nbsp;就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。</b></p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，</b>需要予以关注。</p>\n<p><b>周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。</p>\n<p>相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。</p>\n<p>纽约时段，<b>美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。</b>这将是市场关注的焦点所在。</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。</p>\n<p><b>周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值</b>。<b>市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据方面，投资者需要关注<b>美国的初请失业金人数变动</b>。<b>申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，</b>因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>将公布新一季财报。</b></p>\n<p>新股方面，<b>社交元宇宙第一股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>将登陆纳斯达克上市。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。</b></p>\n<p><b>周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——<b>美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。</b></p>\n<p>5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。</p>\n<p>财报方面，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">医渡科技</a>将公布新一季财报</b>，投资者可作关注。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129554767","content_text":"摘要：\n\n经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n\n\n新股方面：中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n\n\n事件方面：美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n\n\n财报方面：耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n\n周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率\n周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。\n彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。\n中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。\n周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监 Tom Mutton 就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。\n纽约时段，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，需要予以关注。\n周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。\n相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。\n纽约时段，美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。这将是市场关注的焦点所在。\n美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。\n周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值。市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。\n此外，美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报数据方面，投资者需要关注美国的初请失业金人数变动。申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。\n财报方面，耐克、黑莓、联邦快递将公布新一季财报。\n新股方面，社交元宇宙第一股Soul将登陆纳斯达克上市。\n此外，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。\n5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。\n财报方面，晶科能源、医渡科技将公布新一季财报，投资者可作关注。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164255489,"gmtCreate":1624213032141,"gmtModify":1703830715443,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164255489","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252755,"gmtCreate":1624212725777,"gmtModify":1703830714635,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252755","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252403,"gmtCreate":1624212706302,"gmtModify":1703830714312,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252403","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252591,"gmtCreate":1624212671113,"gmtModify":1703830714473,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252591","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164252262,"gmtCreate":1624212650956,"gmtModify":1703830713987,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","listText":"tiger&nbsp; is here","text":"tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164252262","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}