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Jasonsparrow

Jasonsparrow

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08-01

Sept

经济降温警报频响，美联储年内三次降息稳了？

01-12

$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$

2023-07-19

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2023-06-27

$应用软件(BK4023)$ fly

2022-12-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

2022-12-14

$AMC院线(AMC)$

2022-12-14

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$

2022-11-14

$科尔士百货(KSS)$

2022-11-14

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ Good

2022-10-26

$AMC院线(AMC)$

2022-10-25

$拼多多(PDD)$

2022-10-19

$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$

2022-10-18

$AMC院线(AMC)$

2022-10-11

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

2022-10-07

$西方石油(OXY)$

2022-10-06

$AMC Entertainment Preferred(APE)$

2022-10-06

$西方石油(OXY)$

2022-10-06

$西方石油(OXY)$

2022-10-05

$AMC Entertainment Preferred(APE)$

2022-10-05

Good

恒大残局靠汽车

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01:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"经济降温警报频响，美联储年内三次降息稳了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456576431","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国7月制造业活动进一步萎缩，初请数据再次证明就业市场放缓，交易员完全定价美联储年内将降息三次。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四，更多的数据凸显出美国经济面临的挑战，包括制造业活动萎缩幅度加深，以及就业市场进一步降温。</p><p>数据显示，<strong>美国7月ISM制造业PMI</strong>录得46.8，不及预期的48.8和前值48.5，为2023年11月以来新低。<strong>美国6月营建支出月率</strong>录得-0.3%，远低于预期的0.2%，为2022年10月以来最大降幅，前值从-0.1%下修至-0.4%。稍早的时候，<strong>美国初请失业金人数</strong>录得24.9万人，超过预期的23.6万人，为2023年8月5日当周以来新高。</p><p>数据公布后，美债延续反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>跌破4%，至2月份以来最低。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>短线走低10余点。现货黄金一度站上2460美元/盎司，最高升至2462.21美元/盎司，随后掉头向下，短线波幅约14美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d695e1eb756f3556a8673b3544898b6\" tg-width=\"1250\" tg-height=\"704\"/></p><p>ISM制造业商业调查委员会主席Timothy Fiore表示，7月份制造业经济活动连续第四个月萎缩，也是过去21个月以来的第20次萎缩。美国制造业活动进入了更深的收缩阶段。需求再次疲软，产出下降，投入总体上保持宽松。由于当前的联邦货币政策和其他条件，企业表现出不愿意投资资本和库存。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>市场情报公司首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，制造业的复苏在7月份出现了逆转，尽管在经济增长黯淡的同时，<strong>商品生产部门的通胀也明显降温</strong>。此外，由于<strong>新订单自4月份以来首次下降</strong>，导致生产几近停滞，7月份企业的经营状况进一步恶化。它们担心销售弱于预期，因此采购活动正在下降，招聘也已放缓，<strong>就业人口创四年来最大降幅</strong>。</p><p>不过，Williamson认为这种低迷也是情有可原的。他说，“许多企业预计这种疲软是暂时的，与总统大选前暂停支出和投资有关。”</p><p>然而，从历史标准来看，企业对一年后产出的预期仍然偏低，这反映出企业对利率上升和持续通胀的影响更加担忧。7月份，厂房和机械等投资品的订单降幅尤为明显，凸显了近期资本支出的回落，而消费品生产商也报告需求略有下降。</p><p>通胀方面则有更好的消息。Williamson指出，投入成本通胀在5月份升至13个月高点后，7月份已经连续第二个月降温。投入成本的降低帮助进一步缓解了销售价格通胀的压力。7月份，销售价格通胀大幅放缓至一年来的最低水平。他认为，<strong>这种生产者价格通胀几乎为零的情况应该会在未来几个月内传导至消费者价格通胀的下降。</strong></p><p>与此同时，美国初请失业金人数升至近一年来的最高水平，进一步证明劳动力市场正在放缓。续领失业金人数在截至7月20日的一周也上升至188万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。</p><p>在一系列令人担忧的经济数据公布后，目前<strong>美联储利率互换市场完全定价年底前将有3次降息。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n经济降温警报频响，美联储年内三次降息稳了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-02 01:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144810&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周四，更多的数据凸显出美国经济面临的挑战，包括制造业活动萎缩幅度加深，以及就业市场进一步降温。数据显示，美国7月ISM制造业PMI录得46.8，不及预期的48.8和前值48.5，为2023年11月以来新低。美国6月营建支出月率录得-0.3%，远低于预期的0.2%，为2022年10月以来最大降幅，前值从-0.1%下修至-0.4%。稍早的时候，美国初请失业金人数录得24.9万人，超过预期的23.6万人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144810&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654649f0d683db15e6503138da196ca4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144810&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2456576431","content_text":"周四，更多的数据凸显出美国经济面临的挑战，包括制造业活动萎缩幅度加深，以及就业市场进一步降温。数据显示，美国7月ISM制造业PMI录得46.8，不及预期的48.8和前值48.5，为2023年11月以来新低。美国6月营建支出月率录得-0.3%，远低于预期的0.2%，为2022年10月以来最大降幅，前值从-0.1%下修至-0.4%。稍早的时候，美国初请失业金人数录得24.9万人，超过预期的23.6万人，为2023年8月5日当周以来新高。数据公布后，美债延续反弹，美国10年期国债收益率跌破4%，至2月份以来最低。美元指数短线走低10余点。现货黄金一度站上2460美元/盎司，最高升至2462.21美元/盎司，随后掉头向下，短线波幅约14美元。ISM制造业商业调查委员会主席Timothy Fiore表示，7月份制造业经济活动连续第四个月萎缩，也是过去21个月以来的第20次萎缩。美国制造业活动进入了更深的收缩阶段。需求再次疲软，产出下降，投入总体上保持宽松。由于当前的联邦货币政策和其他条件，企业表现出不愿意投资资本和库存。标普全球市场情报公司首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，制造业的复苏在7月份出现了逆转，尽管在经济增长黯淡的同时，商品生产部门的通胀也明显降温。此外，由于新订单自4月份以来首次下降，导致生产几近停滞，7月份企业的经营状况进一步恶化。它们担心销售弱于预期，因此采购活动正在下降，招聘也已放缓，就业人口创四年来最大降幅。不过，Williamson认为这种低迷也是情有可原的。他说，“许多企业预计这种疲软是暂时的，与总统大选前暂停支出和投资有关。”然而，从历史标准来看，企业对一年后产出的预期仍然偏低，这反映出企业对利率上升和持续通胀的影响更加担忧。7月份，厂房和机械等投资品的订单降幅尤为明显，凸显了近期资本支出的回落，而消费品生产商也报告需求略有下降。通胀方面则有更好的消息。Williamson指出，投入成本通胀在5月份升至13个月高点后，7月份已经连续第二个月降温。投入成本的降低帮助进一步缓解了销售价格通胀的压力。7月份，销售价格通胀大幅放缓至一年来的最低水平。他认为，这种生产者价格通胀几乎为零的情况应该会在未来几个月内传导至消费者价格通胀的下降。与此同时，美国初请失业金人数升至近一年来的最高水平，进一步证明劳动力市场正在放缓。续领失业金人数在截至7月20日的一周也上升至188万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。在一系列令人担忧的经济数据公布后，目前美联储利率互换市场完全定价年底前将有3次降息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262294483308712,"gmtCreate":1705070941959,"gmtModify":1705070946981,"author":{"id":"4088747122325190","authorId":"4088747122325190","name":"Jasonsparrow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d420fa01300f656bd7ce17c862c568","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088747122325190","authorIdStr":"4088747122325190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒大残局靠汽车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165004093","media":"锌财经","summary":"经历了两次食言，多次跳票，恒驰5终于量产。许家印心中唯一可以依赖的“救命稻草”，再一次活了。但外界普遍是一种揶揄戏谑的口吻和看热闹的心态。恒大许老板最爱大场面，恒大汽车自然也少不了“恒大式”的大制作、","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>经历了两次食言，多次跳票，恒驰5终于量产。许家印心中唯一可以依赖的“救命稻草”，再一次活了。</p><p>但外界普遍是一种揶揄戏谑的口吻和看热闹的心态。</p><p>恒大许老板最爱大场面，恒大汽车自然也少不了“恒大式”的大制作、大宣传，大手笔，虽然“汽车圈把它看做一个笑话，或者说，就像看戏。”</p><p>秉承着一贯“雷声大，雨点小”的做派，恒大宣称自己的车是“媲美（特斯拉）Model Y，30万内最好纯电SUV”，并以卖房子的手段卖车，恒大汽车依然是熟悉的“土气”奇葩作风，最终恐还是一场“皇帝新衣”般的魔幻闹剧。</p><p>覆巢之下，完卵难存。当下，恒大地产深陷地产债务危机中自顾不暇，许家印势必想尽一切办法抓住汽车这根稻草。</p><p>这是许老板唯一翻盘的期望，也可能是资本市场中恒大系唯一残存的价值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7910ed05499e10e5b928f228b817b521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>“突破行业极限”</b></p><blockquote>恒大从2018年起就开始了全球扫货。</blockquote><p>跟造房一样，许家印造车也充斥着一股浓郁的“恒大气息”。</p><p>许家印曾把恒大造车路径总结为“买买买”、“合合合”、“圈圈圈”、“大大大”、“好好好”，即“把能买的核心技术，能买的企业都买了，买不过来就寻求合作”。</p><p>作为汽车行业的门外汉，恒大从2018年起就开始了全球扫货。最初，许家印投资了贾跃亭的FF法拉第未来，但最后双方闹翻，对簿公堂后彻底割席。</p><p>此后，恒大在海外先后收购拥有萨博汽车技术的瑞典NEVS、卡耐新能源以及轮毂电机技术公司Protean，并牵手德国FEV、EDAG集团、IAV集团、奥地利AVL和加拿大MAGNA五大顶尖汽车供应商组成“豪华军团”，计划推出15款覆盖中高低端所有档次的全系产品。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fb6c08fa6023270f48212fe7ecb4bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>恒大收购轮毂电机技术公司Protean</p><p>建设基地方面，恒大更是宣称在广州南沙砸下1600亿，在沈阳投资1200亿元，建设汽车生产工厂。</p><p>不差钱的许家印曾经每一次的投入都震惊业界。当时的说法是“要用3到5年时间，将恒大新能源汽车打造成全球规模最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。”</p><p>蔚来李斌曾说：“没有200亿不要造车”,之后又表示，“没有400亿元可能干不了，汽车行业的门槛比想象的要高很多”。</p><p>即便造车难于上青天，但是在许老板看来，“世上无难事只怕有钱人。”</p><p>截至2020年，恒大新能源汽车产业累计投入474亿元；2021年上半年，恒大汽车各项开支为45.31亿元，合计近520亿元。</p><p>金元战略之下，恒大造车给人的印象是既大又全，以及各种突破汽车产业极限的匪夷所思。</p><p>比如，恒大汽车董事长肖恩曾表示，恒大汽车2025年产销量目标是100万辆，2035年达到500万辆。而去年，全球电动车市场为420万辆，特斯拉卖出了93万辆，从0到近百万台，特斯拉用了18年，恒大则准备用6年时间完成这一壮举。</p><p>一款新车的开发周期要3-5年，而恒驰5首车下线到量产才8个月时间，从2019年成立，到计划交付，也就3年的时间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1d9a8ee7dae40b984600278f1c15c0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>恒大汽车“全球战略合作签约仪式”</p><p>按照规划，恒大要同步研发15款车，在全球同步建设十大整车和重要零部件生产基地，纵观世界汽车史，这都是绝无仅有的孤例。</p><p>大众、丰田没有做到，即便是鼎盛时期的福特也未敢有这样的想法。</p><p>在两个月前的“720恒驰节”上，恒大宣布已有3.7万用户下订，恒大汽车总裁刘永灼称，“市场反应非常好，比预期还要好，恒驰大卖已成定局。”</p><p>这不禁令人充满疑问，一台没有试驾，没有完整的驾乘感受，甚至没有具体的性能指标，只有一个17.9万元的预售价，就已经让近4万人为之疯狂？</p><p>而且，恒大还用卖房的方式卖车，比如“小定1000元，大定1万元可抵2万元购车款”，购车即送终身质保、免费安装家用充电桩等十大礼包。</p><p>由于恒大地产深陷信任危机，为打消购车消费者的顾虑，恒大决定将预售订金、认购定金及尾款全部支付至天津市津滨公证处设立的专用账户，并接受公证处监管。这在世界汽车史上也是前无古人。</p><p>许家印曾表示，恒大造车“要开辟一条和全世界车企都不一样的道路。”现在看来，这些标新立异确实足够与众不同。</p><p><b>还债才是硬道理</b></p><blockquote>打头阵的恒驰5，其表现至关重要。</blockquote><p>债务危机火山喷发后，恒大彻底“塌房”，商业信任值跌至冰点。</p><p>当下，保交楼已经成为恒大的首要任务。9月12日，许家印又立下军令状，他要求“在9月30日前，所有项目全部达到正常施工水平”。目前恒大在全国的保交楼项目共计706个，已复工项目668个，未复工的还有38个。</p><p>绝境之际，许家印曾一度将物业、汽车资产摆上货架。去年8月，恒大公告称正在接触第三方投资者，探讨出售恒大汽车的部分股权。</p><p>恒大物业和合生创展一度接近达成200亿港元的股权交易，而后就爆出恒大物业134亿存款被质押后，流向了恒大集团。恒大“二号人物”夏海钧、CFO潘大荣等6名高管引咎辞职。</p><p>许家印指望地产业务自我造血，已几乎没有任何可能。地产行业风声鹤唳，信任，已成为横亘在恒大和所有利益相关方之间最为脆弱的一条连接线。今年前8月，中国恒合约销售金额181.58亿元，同比暴跌96%。</p><p>所有产业中只有汽车价值最大。要么整体卖出回笼资金，要么研发产品，自我循环。而市场一度有传言称广汽集团或将并购恒大汽车，但广汽集团回应，“没有这回事”。如果卖不出去，恒大只能想尽办法让其升值。</p><p>对于造车新势力来说，一款新车能否如期量产，能否如期交付，交付后能否持续大卖，是影响企业资本估值的重要因素，这在理想、小鹏等车企的遭遇中已经被印证过。</p><p>3月22日晚上，许家印又立下了“军令状”：大干三个月，一定要在6月22日实现恒驰5量产。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ed20eff2fd5d444401f27a360f7941\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>恒大5的量产时间一再推迟</p><p>最终恒大汽车依旧是食言，量产时间推迟三个月。随着7月6日恒驰5开启预售，9月16日宣布量产，10月开始陆续交付。许家印的“造车梦”终于看到了希望。</p><p>能够量产，能够顺利交付，就意味着有钱进账，如果现金流挣够转正，恒大这架停滞的机器将有机会重新启动。</p><p>恒大的计划是2023年第一季度完成1万辆交付，与此同时，加快推进更多车型量产。按照时间表，恒驰6将于今年底下线，2023年上半年量产；恒驰7将于2023年上半年下线，2023年下半年量产，同时加快恒驰1、恒驰3的研发进度。</p><p>现在看来，打头阵的恒驰5的表现至关重要。</p><p><b>还有价值吗？</b></p><blockquote>许家印的自救战略中，汽车就是最为重要的一环。</blockquote><p>一位在恒大工作多年的员工说：“恒大汽车卖的好不好，已经与产品力无关。”</p><p>同样，恒大汽车存在的意义，关键也在于它能否给市场传递一丝暖意，抵冲恒大所面对的滔滔舆论。</p><p>恒大系三家上市公司中，中国恒大、恒大物业受地产大势和自身债务影响，翻盘的难度已经极大。而恒大汽车在新能源大浪潮中，翻盘的机会还有，毕竟选对方向要强于无脑狂奔。</p><p>许家印的自救战略中，汽车就是最为重要的一环：“10年内，完成由房地产向新能源汽车的转型。未来，恒大的产业格局将迭代为新能源汽车为主，房地产为辅”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00b113ef0d6c273280abd93c2d554a95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>许家印2019年宴请全球汽车工程技术龙头CEO</p><p>但汽车业务与集团休戚与共的关系无法改变。汽车业务的好坏全系母公司的健康程度，集团债台高筑，汽车板块也无法独善其身。</p><p>天眼查显示，恒大新能源汽车投资控股集团共有80条被起诉的开庭公告，原告主要为各类供应商以及银行、信托等投资方。</p><p>母公司陷入债务危局，恒大汽车因拖欠供应商款项，被多方起诉追债，导致零部件供应不及时甚至存在断裂风险，这应该是恒驰5量产延后的根本原因。</p><p>作为恒大汽车背后的“金主”，中诚信托的“新能源3号信托计划”被迫延期回购，遭到投资者维权和举报。</p><p>当然，受连累的还有其他的债权方、投资人和二级市场的散户投资者。恒大汽车股价自去年2月的历史高点至停牌时暴跌了96%，6300多亿港元市值灰飞烟灭，无异于一台凶残的“价值绞肉机”。</p><p>回想一年半前，一辆车还未开售的恒大汽车，市值冲到了6000多亿的历史高点。上海车展恒大九车齐发，业界震惊。彼时，甚至有投资机构给予恒大汽车“买入评级”，目标价167港元，潜在涨幅还有173%。</p><p>燥热之下，新能源融资异常火爆。去年1月24日，恒大汽车定向增发9.52亿股，融资260亿港元，6名投资人自愿锁定12个月。而这6人都是许家印的铁杆朋友，京基集团的陈华、中洲集团的黄光苗、投资大佬王开国、翠林投资王忠明、刘銮雄的妻子陈凯韵以及中国燃气创始人刘明辉。</p><p>股权融资的加持下，恒大汽车次日股价暴涨51.67%，市值一天增长1700亿港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac3788a21f656f411908485d66dde9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但疯狂之后，便是急速陨落，许家印此番坑惨老朋友，陈华等人至今被套牢，亏损近九成。当前，恒大汽车仍在停牌，2021年年报和2022年中报还未刊发，2018年至2021年上半年，已经累计亏损180亿元。</p><p>回头来看，恒大汽车6000多亿市值无疑是过于高估；但站在当前的角度，抛开产品不谈，恒驰5量产确实是一个利好，对于恒大集团来说是一针久违的强心剂。</p><p>但造车并不是盖房子，汽车的复杂程度要远高于房地产，复盘恒大造车的历程，许家印还是一种“大拼盘”的思维，这注定了恒大汽车想要成为恒大集团的大救星困难重重。</p><p><b>写在最后</b></p><p>巅峰时期的恒大曾举办过一场内部篮球赛。那场比赛中， 许家印单场爆砍30分，荣膺MVP，率领高管队战胜员工队，副总裁刘永灼则是助攻王。</p><p>因为这个MVP，许家印被全网嘲讽。</p><p>在那之前，在一个大佬云集的民营企业座谈会上，全国工商联副主席徐乐江点名许家印谈谈学习体会。许家印称，恒大应该从高负债、高杠杆、高周转和低成本的“三高一低”发展模式转向低负债、低成本、低杠杆和高周转的“三低一高”的模式转变。</p><p>徐乐江听后，打趣称，恒大过去的发展模式，其实还应加一个“高风险”。</p><p>指点足够直接，许家印不知能否闻弦音，知雅意？</p><p>关于恒大和许家印的“传奇故事”还有很多，这些故事最终在中国商界留下了浓墨重彩的印记。</p><p>中国房地产正在遭遇史诗级调整，但行业危机不能洗脱所有问题。一句轻飘飘的“大家都这样”并不能解释一切，故事的背后才是真实。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568892980557","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒大残局靠汽车</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒大残局靠汽车\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 22:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bebNgxQ2FlIemxcV62JCqQ><strong>锌财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经历了两次食言，多次跳票，恒驰5终于量产。许家印心中唯一可以依赖的“救命稻草”，再一次活了。但外界普遍是一种揶揄戏谑的口吻和看热闹的心态。恒大许老板最爱大场面，恒大汽车自然也少不了“恒大式”的大制作、大宣传，大手笔，虽然“汽车圈把它看做一个笑话，或者说，就像看戏。”秉承着一贯“雷声大，雨点小”的做派，恒大宣称自己的车是“媲美（特斯拉）Model Y，30万内最好纯电SUV”，并以卖房子的手段卖车，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bebNgxQ2FlIemxcV62JCqQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7910ed05499e10e5b928f228b817b521","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大","00708":"恒大汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bebNgxQ2FlIemxcV62JCqQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165004093","content_text":"经历了两次食言，多次跳票，恒驰5终于量产。许家印心中唯一可以依赖的“救命稻草”，再一次活了。但外界普遍是一种揶揄戏谑的口吻和看热闹的心态。恒大许老板最爱大场面，恒大汽车自然也少不了“恒大式”的大制作、大宣传，大手笔，虽然“汽车圈把它看做一个笑话，或者说，就像看戏。”秉承着一贯“雷声大，雨点小”的做派，恒大宣称自己的车是“媲美（特斯拉）Model Y，30万内最好纯电SUV”，并以卖房子的手段卖车，恒大汽车依然是熟悉的“土气”奇葩作风，最终恐还是一场“皇帝新衣”般的魔幻闹剧。覆巢之下，完卵难存。当下，恒大地产深陷地产债务危机中自顾不暇，许家印势必想尽一切办法抓住汽车这根稻草。这是许老板唯一翻盘的期望，也可能是资本市场中恒大系唯一残存的价值。“突破行业极限”恒大从2018年起就开始了全球扫货。跟造房一样，许家印造车也充斥着一股浓郁的“恒大气息”。许家印曾把恒大造车路径总结为“买买买”、“合合合”、“圈圈圈”、“大大大”、“好好好”，即“把能买的核心技术，能买的企业都买了，买不过来就寻求合作”。作为汽车行业的门外汉，恒大从2018年起就开始了全球扫货。最初，许家印投资了贾跃亭的FF法拉第未来，但最后双方闹翻，对簿公堂后彻底割席。此后，恒大在海外先后收购拥有萨博汽车技术的瑞典NEVS、卡耐新能源以及轮毂电机技术公司Protean，并牵手德国FEV、EDAG集团、IAV集团、奥地利AVL和加拿大MAGNA五大顶尖汽车供应商组成“豪华军团”，计划推出15款覆盖中高低端所有档次的全系产品。恒大收购轮毂电机技术公司Protean建设基地方面，恒大更是宣称在广州南沙砸下1600亿，在沈阳投资1200亿元，建设汽车生产工厂。不差钱的许家印曾经每一次的投入都震惊业界。当时的说法是“要用3到5年时间，将恒大新能源汽车打造成全球规模最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。”蔚来李斌曾说：“没有200亿不要造车”,之后又表示，“没有400亿元可能干不了，汽车行业的门槛比想象的要高很多”。即便造车难于上青天，但是在许老板看来，“世上无难事只怕有钱人。”截至2020年，恒大新能源汽车产业累计投入474亿元；2021年上半年，恒大汽车各项开支为45.31亿元，合计近520亿元。金元战略之下，恒大造车给人的印象是既大又全，以及各种突破汽车产业极限的匪夷所思。比如，恒大汽车董事长肖恩曾表示，恒大汽车2025年产销量目标是100万辆，2035年达到500万辆。而去年，全球电动车市场为420万辆，特斯拉卖出了93万辆，从0到近百万台，特斯拉用了18年，恒大则准备用6年时间完成这一壮举。一款新车的开发周期要3-5年，而恒驰5首车下线到量产才8个月时间，从2019年成立，到计划交付，也就3年的时间。恒大汽车“全球战略合作签约仪式”按照规划，恒大要同步研发15款车，在全球同步建设十大整车和重要零部件生产基地，纵观世界汽车史，这都是绝无仅有的孤例。大众、丰田没有做到，即便是鼎盛时期的福特也未敢有这样的想法。在两个月前的“720恒驰节”上，恒大宣布已有3.7万用户下订，恒大汽车总裁刘永灼称，“市场反应非常好，比预期还要好，恒驰大卖已成定局。”这不禁令人充满疑问，一台没有试驾，没有完整的驾乘感受，甚至没有具体的性能指标，只有一个17.9万元的预售价，就已经让近4万人为之疯狂？而且，恒大还用卖房的方式卖车，比如“小定1000元，大定1万元可抵2万元购车款”，购车即送终身质保、免费安装家用充电桩等十大礼包。由于恒大地产深陷信任危机，为打消购车消费者的顾虑，恒大决定将预售订金、认购定金及尾款全部支付至天津市津滨公证处设立的专用账户，并接受公证处监管。这在世界汽车史上也是前无古人。许家印曾表示，恒大造车“要开辟一条和全世界车企都不一样的道路。”现在看来，这些标新立异确实足够与众不同。还债才是硬道理打头阵的恒驰5，其表现至关重要。债务危机火山喷发后，恒大彻底“塌房”，商业信任值跌至冰点。当下，保交楼已经成为恒大的首要任务。9月12日，许家印又立下军令状，他要求“在9月30日前，所有项目全部达到正常施工水平”。目前恒大在全国的保交楼项目共计706个，已复工项目668个，未复工的还有38个。绝境之际，许家印曾一度将物业、汽车资产摆上货架。去年8月，恒大公告称正在接触第三方投资者，探讨出售恒大汽车的部分股权。恒大物业和合生创展一度接近达成200亿港元的股权交易，而后就爆出恒大物业134亿存款被质押后，流向了恒大集团。恒大“二号人物”夏海钧、CFO潘大荣等6名高管引咎辞职。许家印指望地产业务自我造血，已几乎没有任何可能。地产行业风声鹤唳，信任，已成为横亘在恒大和所有利益相关方之间最为脆弱的一条连接线。今年前8月，中国恒合约销售金额181.58亿元，同比暴跌96%。所有产业中只有汽车价值最大。要么整体卖出回笼资金，要么研发产品，自我循环。而市场一度有传言称广汽集团或将并购恒大汽车，但广汽集团回应，“没有这回事”。如果卖不出去，恒大只能想尽办法让其升值。对于造车新势力来说，一款新车能否如期量产，能否如期交付，交付后能否持续大卖，是影响企业资本估值的重要因素，这在理想、小鹏等车企的遭遇中已经被印证过。3月22日晚上，许家印又立下了“军令状”：大干三个月，一定要在6月22日实现恒驰5量产。恒大5的量产时间一再推迟最终恒大汽车依旧是食言，量产时间推迟三个月。随着7月6日恒驰5开启预售，9月16日宣布量产，10月开始陆续交付。许家印的“造车梦”终于看到了希望。能够量产，能够顺利交付，就意味着有钱进账，如果现金流挣够转正，恒大这架停滞的机器将有机会重新启动。恒大的计划是2023年第一季度完成1万辆交付，与此同时，加快推进更多车型量产。按照时间表，恒驰6将于今年底下线，2023年上半年量产；恒驰7将于2023年上半年下线，2023年下半年量产，同时加快恒驰1、恒驰3的研发进度。现在看来，打头阵的恒驰5的表现至关重要。还有价值吗？许家印的自救战略中，汽车就是最为重要的一环。一位在恒大工作多年的员工说：“恒大汽车卖的好不好，已经与产品力无关。”同样，恒大汽车存在的意义，关键也在于它能否给市场传递一丝暖意，抵冲恒大所面对的滔滔舆论。恒大系三家上市公司中，中国恒大、恒大物业受地产大势和自身债务影响，翻盘的难度已经极大。而恒大汽车在新能源大浪潮中，翻盘的机会还有，毕竟选对方向要强于无脑狂奔。许家印的自救战略中，汽车就是最为重要的一环：“10年内，完成由房地产向新能源汽车的转型。未来，恒大的产业格局将迭代为新能源汽车为主，房地产为辅”。许家印2019年宴请全球汽车工程技术龙头CEO但汽车业务与集团休戚与共的关系无法改变。汽车业务的好坏全系母公司的健康程度，集团债台高筑，汽车板块也无法独善其身。天眼查显示，恒大新能源汽车投资控股集团共有80条被起诉的开庭公告，原告主要为各类供应商以及银行、信托等投资方。母公司陷入债务危局，恒大汽车因拖欠供应商款项，被多方起诉追债，导致零部件供应不及时甚至存在断裂风险，这应该是恒驰5量产延后的根本原因。作为恒大汽车背后的“金主”，中诚信托的“新能源3号信托计划”被迫延期回购，遭到投资者维权和举报。当然，受连累的还有其他的债权方、投资人和二级市场的散户投资者。恒大汽车股价自去年2月的历史高点至停牌时暴跌了96%，6300多亿港元市值灰飞烟灭，无异于一台凶残的“价值绞肉机”。回想一年半前，一辆车还未开售的恒大汽车，市值冲到了6000多亿的历史高点。上海车展恒大九车齐发，业界震惊。彼时，甚至有投资机构给予恒大汽车“买入评级”，目标价167港元，潜在涨幅还有173%。燥热之下，新能源融资异常火爆。去年1月24日，恒大汽车定向增发9.52亿股，融资260亿港元，6名投资人自愿锁定12个月。而这6人都是许家印的铁杆朋友，京基集团的陈华、中洲集团的黄光苗、投资大佬王开国、翠林投资王忠明、刘銮雄的妻子陈凯韵以及中国燃气创始人刘明辉。股权融资的加持下，恒大汽车次日股价暴涨51.67%，市值一天增长1700亿港元。但疯狂之后，便是急速陨落，许家印此番坑惨老朋友，陈华等人至今被套牢，亏损近九成。当前，恒大汽车仍在停牌，2021年年报和2022年中报还未刊发，2018年至2021年上半年，已经累计亏损180亿元。回头来看，恒大汽车6000多亿市值无疑是过于高估；但站在当前的角度，抛开产品不谈，恒驰5量产确实是一个利好，对于恒大集团来说是一针久违的强心剂。但造车并不是盖房子，汽车的复杂程度要远高于房地产，复盘恒大造车的历程，许家印还是一种“大拼盘”的思维，这注定了恒大汽车想要成为恒大集团的大救星困难重重。写在最后巅峰时期的恒大曾举办过一场内部篮球赛。那场比赛中， 许家印单场爆砍30分，荣膺MVP，率领高管队战胜员工队，副总裁刘永灼则是助攻王。因为这个MVP，许家印被全网嘲讽。在那之前，在一个大佬云集的民营企业座谈会上，全国工商联副主席徐乐江点名许家印谈谈学习体会。许家印称，恒大应该从高负债、高杠杆、高周转和低成本的“三高一低”发展模式转向低负债、低成本、低杠杆和高周转的“三低一高”的模式转变。徐乐江听后，打趣称，恒大过去的发展模式，其实还应加一个“高风险”。指点足够直接，许家印不知能否闻弦音，知雅意？关于恒大和许家印的“传奇故事”还有很多，这些故事最终在中国商界留下了浓墨重彩的印记。中国房地产正在遭遇史诗级调整，但行业危机不能洗脱所有问题。一句轻飘飘的“大家都这样”并不能解释一切，故事的背后才是真实。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9912439408,"gmtCreate":1664873292504,"gmtModify":1676537521947,"author":{"id":"4088747122325190","authorId":"4088747122325190","name":"Jasonsparrow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d420fa01300f656bd7ce17c862c568","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088747122325190","authorIdStr":"4088747122325190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U\">$Unity Software 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