Kyochan personal page - To The Moon

Kyochan

Kyochan

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2022-01-24

🤟🤟🚀

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2022-01-09

🚀🚀🚀🤟

空客据称超额完成2021年交付目标，分析师看好今年

2022-07-10

$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅

2021-08-16

gogo

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2022-05-11

🚀🚀🚀

@资本邦:恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%，位居恆生系列產品第一

2022-04-18

twitter🚀🚀🚀

2021-08-20

??

狂奔的B站要跌落凡间？

2021-08-20

$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly

2021-08-17

fly

现代牙科一度涨逾30%，预期上半年纯利扭亏为盈

2021-08-16

gogoog

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2021-08-14

fly

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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08:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场压力越来越大，所有人盯着杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。</p>\n<p>一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。</p>\n<p>目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。</p>\n<p>Cabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”</p>\n<h2>市场严阵以待</h2>\n<p>不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。</p>\n<p>8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。</p>\n<p>美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。</p>\n<p>Subramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Subramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场压力越来越大，所有人盯着杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场压力越来越大，所有人盯着杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-16 08:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BAC":"美国银行","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116529888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628867931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116529888?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】热门中概股跌幅扩大，贝壳跌超9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、","content":"<p>8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>、微博跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌超1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】热门中概股跌幅扩大，贝壳跌超9%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】热门中概股跌幅扩大，贝壳跌超9%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-13 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>、微博跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌超1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116529888","content_text":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东、网易跌超1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007434379,"gmtCreate":1642982565519,"gmtModify":1676533761379,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤟🤟🚀","listText":"🤟🤟🚀","text":"🤟🤟🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007434379","repostId":"1171166423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006830083,"gmtCreate":1641685297165,"gmtModify":1676533638852,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","listText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","text":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006830083","repostId":"2201217750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201217750","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641601341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201217750?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-08 08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"空客据称超额完成2021年交付目标，分析师看好今年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。</p><p>此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>公司。</p><p>在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。</p><p>空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。</p><p>眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。</p><p>业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。</p><p>分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。</p><p>去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">赛峰</a>集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>空客据称超额完成2021年交付目标，分析师看好今年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n空客据称超额完成2021年交付目标，分析师看好今年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-08 08:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073707600,"gmtCreate":1657415701800,"gmtModify":1676536003862,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","listText":"<a 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位居恆生系列產品第一","htmlText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","listText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","text":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612157298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088066169,"gmtCreate":1650291432659,"gmtModify":1676534688131,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","listText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","text":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088066169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"狂奔的B站要跌落凡间？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>北京时间8月19日港股盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>发布了2021年二季度财报。</p>\n<p>本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。</p>\n<p>展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。</p>\n<p>二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)</p>\n<p>另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>先说结论：</p>\n<p>(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。</p>\n<p>但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。</p>\n<p>(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。</p>\n<p>游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。</p>\n<p>(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。</p>\n<p>但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。</p>\n<p>还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。</p>\n<p>另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。</p>\n<p>如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。</p>\n<p>另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。</p>\n<p>本次财报数据详细解读</p>\n<p>1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般</p>\n<p>(1)收入端</p>\n<p>二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>(2)利润端</p>\n<p>二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力</p>\n<p>二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。</p>\n<p>考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频&gt;中视频&gt;长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：</p>\n<p>a。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>b。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进</p>\n<p>二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。</p>\n<p>从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。</p>\n<p>毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。</p>\n<p>海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。</p>\n<p>4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打</p>\n<p>二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>从第三方数据Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：IT桔子</p>\n<p>5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来</p>\n<p>二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>B站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。</p>\n<p>这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。</p>\n<p>6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛</p>\n<p>二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>狂奔的B站要跌落凡间？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n狂奔的B站要跌落凡间？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-20 18:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw><strong>海豚投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"现代牙科一度涨逾30%，预期上半年纯利扭亏为盈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>8月17日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">现代牙科</a>盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现代牙科一度涨逾30%，预期上半年纯利扭亏为盈\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月17日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">现代牙科</a>盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}