Kyochan personal page - To The Moon

Kyochan

Kyochan

No personal profile

312Follow

5Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-07-10

$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅

2022-05-11

🚀🚀🚀

@资本邦:恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%，位居恆生系列產品第一

2022-04-18

twitter🚀🚀🚀

2022-01-24

🤟🤟🚀

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-09

🚀🚀🚀🤟

Airbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.

2021-08-20

??

Is Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?

2021-08-20

$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly

2021-08-17

fly

Modern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.

2021-08-16

gogo

Market pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

2021-08-16

gogoog

Ren Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021

2021-08-14

fly

[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4089193130492580","uuid":"4089193130492580","gmtCreate":1626090067035,"gmtModify":1628818599990,"name":"Kyochan","pinyin":"kyochan","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":312,"tweetSize":28,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":"60.60%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":2,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9073707600,"gmtCreate":1657415701800,"gmtModify":1676536003862,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","text":"$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69058e6b5c8cdcc080cc6f875dcf79e7","width":"1242","height":"2505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073707600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064016736,"gmtCreate":1652246411025,"gmtModify":1676535061513,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064016736","repostId":"612157298","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612157298,"gmtCreate":1652245632314,"gmtModify":1676533088961,"author":{"id":"3511237393001450","authorId":"3511237393001450","name":"资本邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1331a33968359a10e08ae7160541b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511237393001450","authorIdStr":"3511237393001450"},"themes":[],"title":"恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%， 位居恆生系列產品第一","htmlText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","listText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","text":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612157298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088066169,"gmtCreate":1650291432659,"gmtModify":1676534688131,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","listText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","text":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088066169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007434379,"gmtCreate":1642982565519,"gmtModify":1676533761379,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🤟🤟🚀","listText":"🤟🤟🚀","text":"🤟🤟🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007434379","repostId":"1171166423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006830083,"gmtCreate":1641685297165,"gmtModify":1676533638852,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","listText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","text":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006830083","repostId":"2201217750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201217750","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641601341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201217750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-08 08:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Airbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to media reports citing industry insiders, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>Previously, reports indicated that Airbus exceeded its target of delivering 600 aircraft for the full year of 2021, continuing to lead its main competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Company.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries were key to generating cash. It is understood that during times of crisis, some airlines were allowed to postpone the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load sheet through some workarounds, thereby partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditing agencies.</p><p>Airbus will release its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Currently, the aviation industry is trying to readjust its supply chain, which has been weakened by the pandemic. With Airbus confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body aircraft productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Industry insiders say that some aircraft originally scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months due to logistical bottlenecks and chip shortages for some components. Reports indicate that the delivery of some aircraft may even be postponed until 2023.</p><p>Analysts say that although Airbus has not yet provided a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 series narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month before the summer of 2023. It's worth noting that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to partnerships with France...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Saifeng</a>The group and other engine manufacturers abandoned the plan due to disagreements.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to media reports citing industry insiders, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>Previously, reports indicated that Airbus exceeded its target of delivering 600 aircraft for the full year of 2021, continuing to lead its main competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Company.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries were key to generating cash. It is understood that during times of crisis, some airlines were allowed to postpone the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load sheet through some workarounds, thereby partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditing agencies.</p><p>Airbus will release its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Currently, the aviation industry is trying to readjust its supply chain, which has been weakened by the pandemic. With Airbus confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body aircraft productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Industry insiders say that some aircraft originally scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months due to logistical bottlenecks and chip shortages for some components. Reports indicate that the delivery of some aircraft may even be postponed until 2023.</p><p>Analysts say that although Airbus has not yet provided a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 series narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month before the summer of 2023. It's worth noting that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to partnerships with France...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Saifeng</a>The group and other engine manufacturers abandoned the plan due to disagreements.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The company released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg) and consistently exceeding the previous guidance (RMB 4.25-4.35 billion).</p><p>Looking ahead to the third quarter, management has given revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, implying a growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus expectation for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion yuan falls within the guidance range, while in the past, the lower limit of the guidance would exceed market expectations. Clearly, Bilibili's third-quarter guidance is somewhat conservative.</p><p>The company reported an adjusted net loss of 857 million yuan in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating losses of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion yuan corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expectation is 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted and are similar to the actual loss rate). A closer look at the data reveals that the main expectation difference lies in operating expenses. (Specific reasons will be analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, regarding other key operating indicators, here is a quick overview of the gap between second-quarter performance and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) Overall, although Bilibili's revenue and user data in the second quarter clearly beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company provided some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance of the second quarter with securities firms (most of the market believed that the forward-looking guidance was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline). Subsequently, market expectations have been adjusted for some time based on this forward-looking guidance.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite outstanding, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>Games, on the other hand, suffered a severe setback. Although popular new games were released as scheduled, overall revenue declined instead of increasing. Bilibili is somewhat aware that its self-developed games are so-so, but its investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The overall user market is growing well, but the old problem has not shown any signs of improvement: the growth rate of daily active users (DAU) cannot keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline in overall user stickiness. The third quarter faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clean-up campaign, protection of minors, live streaming supervision, etc.), and user growth is expected to be lower than in previous summer peak seasons.</p><p>But Dolphin believes that in the long run, B's value goes far beyond that. Although the original intention was not to do tile ads, the Huahuo platform is currently a private domain advertising platform, and the revenue sharing for content creators accounts for the vast majority, indirectly taking a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Bilibili. In addition, Bilibili's current user activity (DAU) and the effectiveness of public domain advertising cannot be simply compared with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, Bilibili's most valuable asset is its Generation Z users, including content creators, who are constantly growing and becoming the main force of social consumption. These users have a very high level of recognition of Bilibili's value. Although its high-frequency activity is not as high as other platforms (which rely on algorithms to retain users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of content creators (UPs) among Bilibili users has been increasing, reflecting not only a long-term healthy community ecosystem, but also an increasing number of UGC content and participants, giving Bilibili's value-added services such as live streaming and tipping an advantage over traditional live streaming.</p><p>Judging from the stock price trend, Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies an overly pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili's future. Short-term stock price fluctuations are largely influenced by the regulatory environment, such as the regulation of cultural content during special years, the protection of minors, and the summer health campaign.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright regulation has also had a certain impact on Bilibili, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. The performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively get involved after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed analysis of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third-quarter guidance average.</p><p>(1) Revenue side</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg), while beat management guided the upper limit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Advertising revenue growth continued to be impressive across different business segments. Despite the release of highly popular new games, they still performed poorly, with contributions declining rapidly year-on-year, while live streaming and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>The company's gross profit margin declined by 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, mainly due to increased revenue sharing for new games, content investment (LPL World Finals and esports regular season live streaming rights), and increased live streaming revenue sharing (the revenue sharing for streamers has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the majority of Huahuo's revenue goes to content creators (UPs), Bilibili's advertising gross profit margin of around 50% is significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB 1.521 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 1.188 billion, mainly due to an increase in the marketing expense ratio. Many new games were released in the second quarter, resulting in significant marketing and promotion expenditures, an increase of 6 points compared to the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives continued to increase year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User base: Not sluggish during the off-season, but growth may face pressure in the third quarter under more regulation.</p><p>The number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, the number still grew by 38%, which was higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, if the growth rate is 20% of the previous year's reduction rate, the user growth rate for the whole year this year must exceed 30%, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old problems persist. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) has hit a two-year low. A platform's activity level will affect its future monetization potential, especially for advertisers who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself can have a certain impact on the platform's activity level, the longer the video, the lower the activity level. Judging from Questmobile's 30-day retention rate for different video apps. It basically follows the pattern of short videos > medium videos > long videos. The company previously stated that it is still in the stage of expanding its scale and going viral, and its long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's worth mentioning that Bilibili made two significant feature page redesigns in the second quarter to address user stickiness, and user stickiness is expected to improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the portrait Mode \"Story Mode\", which allows users to switch between videos by swiping up and down directly, similar to short videos, with the main purpose of increasing user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. Another feature is a major redesign that just launched during the summer, highlighting video creation functions to guide more users to become content creators.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, the number of paying users for tipping games, premium members, and virtual items (such as coins, live streaming gifts, etc.) this quarter was affected by seasonality. The total number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous quarter. However, the downward trend in the level of payment per user is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising Business: Prosperity remains strong, and commercialization is progressing steadily.</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili's advertising revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, far exceeding the market and Dolphin's expectations (150%). With the economic recovery and the rebound in advertising spending, as well as Bilibili's increasingly recognized brand influence, it will help continue to drive Bilibili's advertising prosperity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Currently, Bilibili, the Fireworks platform, only takes about 6% of its own commission and recognizes revenue based on the total transaction volume, thus lowering the overall gross profit margin of advertising.</p><p>Judging from Bilibili's unique platform character, the future contribution of the Fireworks platform will also be significantly enhanced. However, for Bilibili, the contribution of the Fireworks platform to its overall performance may not be a core indicator for Bilibili in the short term. Instead, it regards Fireworks as a major empowerment tool for maintaining the main ecosystem of content creators.</p><p>After all, on Bilibili, content creators and users interact frequently, and there is even some emotional connection between them. It can be seen as a series of private domain relationships. Therefore, content creators are also a core asset of Bilibili.</p><p>Dolphin Jun speculates that, in addition to needing to supplement the content supply, considering the strategic significance of Fireworks, this is also why Bilibili is constantly expanding the number of content creators.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still very difficult to play.</p><p>Bilibili's game revenue declined by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, which is quite poor compared to its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although popular new games that the market had high hopes for, such as \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\", \"Mobile Warrior\", and \"Sword Art Online\", were released in the second quarter, their revenue performance was very poor except for \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data sensors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Looking at the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the revenue of old games distributed through agents and \"Kan Gong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too quickly. (The black line represents the revenue stream for Genshin Impact, and the yellow line represents the revenue stream for Kan Gong.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps aware of its own capabilities, Bilibili invested in seven game companies in the first quarter and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, expected to benefit from video coin-operated revenue sharing and the popularity of live streaming.</p><p>The value-added business actually performed quite well in the second quarter, especially given the overall decline in the industry environment. It achieved revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, which was slightly lower than the expectations of major banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Bilibili's live streaming and value-added services include premium membership, video coin-in revenue sharing, and live streaming tipping revenue sharing. In terms of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy (review before broadcasting) faced by Japanese anime in April, which is expected to affect the revenue of large members, Dolphin Jun guesses that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live streaming growth and value-added services should be mainly due to the increase in coin sharing and the increase in live streaming popularity.</p><p>This is different from traditional live streaming, as Bilibili's live streaming is still in a stage of rapid penetration and growth.</p><p>6. E-commerce and other businesses: Although their proportion is small, their momentum is even stronger.</p><p>E-commerce continued its high growth, nearly doubling in the second quarter. However, considering that this revenue (membership purchases) is mainly driven by the consumption of core anime users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the ACG (Anime, Comics, and Games) community among Generation Z users, its future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggests that investors pay appropriate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The company released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg) and consistently exceeding the previous guidance (RMB 4.25-4.35 billion).</p><p>Looking ahead to the third quarter, management has given revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, implying a growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus expectation for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion yuan falls within the guidance range, while in the past, the lower limit of the guidance would exceed market expectations. Clearly, Bilibili's third-quarter guidance is somewhat conservative.</p><p>The company reported an adjusted net loss of 857 million yuan in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating losses of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion yuan corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expectation is 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted and are similar to the actual loss rate). A closer look at the data reveals that the main expectation difference lies in operating expenses. (Specific reasons will be analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, regarding other key operating indicators, here is a quick overview of the gap between second-quarter performance and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) Overall, although Bilibili's revenue and user data in the second quarter clearly beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company provided some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance of the second quarter with securities firms (most of the market believed that the forward-looking guidance was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline). Subsequently, market expectations have been adjusted for some time based on this forward-looking guidance.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite outstanding, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>Games, on the other hand, suffered a severe setback. Although popular new games were released as scheduled, overall revenue declined instead of increasing. Bilibili is somewhat aware that its self-developed games are so-so, but its investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The overall user market is growing well, but the old problem has not shown any signs of improvement: the growth rate of daily active users (DAU) cannot keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline in overall user stickiness. The third quarter faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clean-up campaign, protection of minors, live streaming supervision, etc.), and user growth is expected to be lower than in previous summer peak seasons.</p><p>But Dolphin believes that in the long run, B's value goes far beyond that. Although the original intention was not to do tile ads, the Huahuo platform is currently a private domain advertising platform, and the revenue sharing for content creators accounts for the vast majority, indirectly taking a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Bilibili. In addition, Bilibili's current user activity (DAU) and the effectiveness of public domain advertising cannot be simply compared with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, Bilibili's most valuable asset is its Generation Z users, including content creators, who are constantly growing and becoming the main force of social consumption. These users have a very high level of recognition of Bilibili's value. Although its high-frequency activity is not as high as other platforms (which rely on algorithms to retain users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of content creators (UPs) among Bilibili users has been increasing, reflecting not only a long-term healthy community ecosystem, but also an increasing number of UGC content and participants, giving Bilibili's value-added services such as live streaming and tipping an advantage over traditional live streaming.</p><p>Judging from the stock price trend, Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies an overly pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili's future. Short-term stock price fluctuations are largely influenced by the regulatory environment, such as the regulation of cultural content during special years, the protection of minors, and the summer health campaign.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright regulation has also had a certain impact on Bilibili, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. The performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively get involved after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed analysis of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third-quarter guidance average.</p><p>(1) Revenue side</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg), while beat management guided the upper limit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Advertising revenue growth continued to be impressive across different business segments. Despite the release of highly popular new games, they still performed poorly, with contributions declining rapidly year-on-year, while live streaming and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>The company's gross profit margin declined by 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, mainly due to increased revenue sharing for new games, content investment (LPL World Finals and esports regular season live streaming rights), and increased live streaming revenue sharing (the revenue sharing for streamers has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the majority of Huahuo's revenue goes to content creators (UPs), Bilibili's advertising gross profit margin of around 50% is significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB 1.521 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 1.188 billion, mainly due to an increase in the marketing expense ratio. Many new games were released in the second quarter, resulting in significant marketing and promotion expenditures, an increase of 6 points compared to the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives continued to increase year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User base: Not sluggish during the off-season, but growth may face pressure in the third quarter under more regulation.</p><p>The number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, the number still grew by 38%, which was higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, if the growth rate is 20% of the previous year's reduction rate, the user growth rate for the whole year this year must exceed 30%, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old problems persist. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) has hit a two-year low. A platform's activity level will affect its future monetization potential, especially for advertisers who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself can have a certain impact on the platform's activity level, the longer the video, the lower the activity level. Judging from Questmobile's 30-day retention rate for different video apps. It basically follows the pattern of short videos > medium videos > long videos. The company previously stated that it is still in the stage of expanding its scale and going viral, and its long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's worth mentioning that Bilibili made two significant feature page redesigns in the second quarter to address user stickiness, and user stickiness is expected to improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the portrait Mode \"Story Mode\", which allows users to switch between videos by swiping up and down directly, similar to short videos, with the main purpose of increasing user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. Another feature is a major redesign that just launched during the summer, highlighting video creation functions to guide more users to become content creators.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, the number of paying users for tipping games, premium members, and virtual items (such as coins, live streaming gifts, etc.) this quarter was affected by seasonality. The total number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous quarter. However, the downward trend in the level of payment per user is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising Business: Prosperity remains strong, and commercialization is progressing steadily.</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili's advertising revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, far exceeding the market and Dolphin's expectations (150%). With the economic recovery and the rebound in advertising spending, as well as Bilibili's increasingly recognized brand influence, it will help continue to drive Bilibili's advertising prosperity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Currently, Bilibili, the Fireworks platform, only takes about 6% of its own commission and recognizes revenue based on the total transaction volume, thus lowering the overall gross profit margin of advertising.</p><p>Judging from Bilibili's unique platform character, the future contribution of the Fireworks platform will also be significantly enhanced. However, for Bilibili, the contribution of the Fireworks platform to its overall performance may not be a core indicator for Bilibili in the short term. Instead, it regards Fireworks as a major empowerment tool for maintaining the main ecosystem of content creators.</p><p>After all, on Bilibili, content creators and users interact frequently, and there is even some emotional connection between them. It can be seen as a series of private domain relationships. Therefore, content creators are also a core asset of Bilibili.</p><p>Dolphin Jun speculates that, in addition to needing to supplement the content supply, considering the strategic significance of Fireworks, this is also why Bilibili is constantly expanding the number of content creators.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still very difficult to play.</p><p>Bilibili's game revenue declined by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, which is quite poor compared to its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although popular new games that the market had high hopes for, such as \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\", \"Mobile Warrior\", and \"Sword Art Online\", were released in the second quarter, their revenue performance was very poor except for \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data sensors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Looking at the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the revenue of old games distributed through agents and \"Kan Gong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too quickly. (The black line represents the revenue stream for Genshin Impact, and the yellow line represents the revenue stream for Kan Gong.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps aware of its own capabilities, Bilibili invested in seven game companies in the first quarter and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, expected to benefit from video coin-operated revenue sharing and the popularity of live streaming.</p><p>The value-added business actually performed quite well in the second quarter, especially given the overall decline in the industry environment. It achieved revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, which was slightly lower than the expectations of major banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Bilibili's live streaming and value-added services include premium membership, video coin-in revenue sharing, and live streaming tipping revenue sharing. In terms of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy (review before broadcasting) faced by Japanese anime in April, which is expected to affect the revenue of large members, Dolphin Jun guesses that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live streaming growth and value-added services should be mainly due to the increase in coin sharing and the increase in live streaming popularity.</p><p>This is different from traditional live streaming, as Bilibili's live streaming is still in a stage of rapid penetration and growth.</p><p>6. E-commerce and other businesses: Although their proportion is small, their momentum is even stronger.</p><p>E-commerce continued its high growth, nearly doubling in the second quarter. However, considering that this revenue (membership purchases) is mainly driven by the consumption of core anime users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the ACG (Anime, Comics, and Games) community among Generation Z users, its future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggests that investors pay appropriate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BILI":0.9,"09626":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">modern dentistry</a>The stock rose more than 30% at one point during trading and is currently trading at HK$8.89, a two-month high, with a market capitalization of HK$8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit warning last night, expecting unaudited net profit for the first half of this year to be between RMB 230 million and RMB 245 million, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 140 million in the same period last year. The announcement stated that the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to release its results at the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">modern dentistry</a>The stock rose more than 30% at one point during trading and is currently trading at HK$8.89, a two-month high, with a market capitalization of HK$8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit warning last night, expecting unaudited net profit for the first half of this year to be between RMB 230 million and RMB 245 million, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 140 million in the same period last year. The announcement stated that the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to release its results at the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting approaches, investors await any signals the Federal Reserve might give regarding Taper, and the market falls into a kind of calm before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, from August 26 to 28 local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, based on past experience, the Federal Reserve often drops a \"bombshell\" at its Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to provide clues at this annual meeting regarding the timing and methods of reducing bond purchases. However, the recurring pandemic has added uncertainty.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a research report titled \"Jackson Hold,\" strategists such as Mark Cabana stated that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but remain virtually unchanged for two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al. wrote: \"We would not be surprised if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech outlining the progress of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and acknowledging that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not signal it.\"</p><p><h2>The market is on high alert</h2>However, US Treasury bonds have entered a period of high alert, and their trend has remained almost flat over the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data shows that the number of customers holding a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury Bond has reached its highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, following the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rebounded from a six-month low, but the rebound has now stopped, with the yield falling to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, US stocks are performing strongly, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a new record for the longest winning streak since 1999. However, the higher the price increases, the higher the risk of accumulation.</p><p>In a report, Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned that interest rate risk is at an all-time high with the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects arising from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Subramanian stated that among the 20 market indicators tracked by the bank, most are statistically too expensive. Earnings growth is expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to inflation and the economic slowdown. Record interest rate risk means that even if interest rates rise only slightly, the stock market decline will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian pointed out that a growing number of Federal Reserve officials are urging a reduction in bond purchases, and implied market volatility has increased following the release of a strong jobs report.</p><p>In this context, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500 index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks that hastily raised their S&P 500 forecasts when the market was rising, Bank of America remains the only bearish, forecasting the 10-year yield to reach 1.9% by the end of the year, an increase of about 55 basis points from the current level, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall by about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting approaches, investors await any signals the Federal Reserve might give regarding Taper, and the market falls into a kind of calm before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, from August 26 to 28 local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, based on past experience, the Federal Reserve often drops a \"bombshell\" at its Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to provide clues at this annual meeting regarding the timing and methods of reducing bond purchases. However, the recurring pandemic has added uncertainty.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a research report titled \"Jackson Hold,\" strategists such as Mark Cabana stated that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but remain virtually unchanged for two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al. wrote: \"We would not be surprised if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech outlining the progress of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and acknowledging that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not signal it.\"</p><p><h2>The market is on high alert</h2>However, US Treasury bonds have entered a period of high alert, and their trend has remained almost flat over the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data shows that the number of customers holding a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury Bond has reached its highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, following the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rebounded from a six-month low, but the rebound has now stopped, with the yield falling to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, US stocks are performing strongly, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a new record for the longest winning streak since 1999. However, the higher the price increases, the higher the risk of accumulation.</p><p>In a report, Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned that interest rate risk is at an all-time high with the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects arising from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Subramanian stated that among the 20 market indicators tracked by the bank, most are statistically too expensive. Earnings growth is expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to inflation and the economic slowdown. Record interest rate risk means that even if interest rates rise only slightly, the stock market decline will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian pointed out that a growing number of Federal Reserve officials are urging a reduction in bond purchases, and implied market volatility has increased following the release of a strong jobs report.</p><p>In this context, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500 index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks that hastily raised their S&P 500 forecasts when the market was rising, Bank of America remains the only bearish, forecasting the 10-year yield to reach 1.9% by the end of the year, an increase of about 55 basis points from the current level, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall by about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BAC":"美国银行","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping's team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We have proposed a widely circulated analytical framework in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This article looks at global housing price trends, examining the factors and patterns driving housing price trends in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b></p><p><b>Over the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have risen by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b>First, housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%. Secondly, 14 economies, including Ireland and Australia, have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and average annual growth of 5.5%-8%. Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than five times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of over 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by 22%. However, the increases in major Asian countries have been lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The largest increases in housing prices occurred in metropolitan areas where a country's population flowed in.</b>London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</p><p><b>Our call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) is urgent. We should accelerate the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market, with the linking of people and land, control of currency and property tax as the core, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a window of opportunity in the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Differences in housing price increases across different economies: economic growth, population changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 Significant differences in housing price trends across 23 economies over the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, housing prices in four economies—South Africa, New Zealand, Spain, and the United Kingdom—have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>South Africa and New Zealand have seen cumulative house price increases of 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies. UK house prices have risen 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased by 60.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-8%: Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States, and Belgium.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9% for both countries. Hong Kong property prices rose 19.9 times from Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%. From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia rose 5.1 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%. The other 10 countries saw increases ranging from 15 to 40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% to 7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, five economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of less than five times and average annual growth of less than 4%: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany, and Japan.</b>Thailand's stock price increased 1.8 times from Q1 1991 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, South Korean housing prices rose 3.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the correlation between global housing price trends is gradually increasing.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, house prices in Japan and South Korea fell in the early 1990s, house prices in Southeast Asia fell in 1997, and the global real estate market fell in 2007.<b>Looking at housing price trends over the past 51 years, the 23 economies can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies that have seen housing prices rise continuously with minor adjustments during this period: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any of the aforementioned four countries has not exceeded 9% in any downward cycle. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada did not experience two consecutive years of decline; France experienced three significant adjustments, from 1992 to 1995, from 2008 to 2009, and from 2011 to 2015, but the cumulative decline in each of the three periods never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand, experienced a sharp decline in housing prices but later rose above their previous highs.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% between 1979 and 1982 and by more than 19% between 2008 and 2013; house prices in South Africa fell by 11% between 1984 and 1986; house prices in Finland plummeted by 37% between 1990 and 1992; house prices in Switzerland plummeted by 22% between 1990 and 1998; house prices in Malaysia and Thailand both plummeted by more than 11% between 1997 and 1998 and 1998, respectively; house prices in Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% between 1998 and 2003; house prices in the United States plummeted by more than 30% between 2007 and 2011; and house prices in the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% between 1990 and 1992 and by more than 13% between 2008 and 2009. Housing prices in the aforementioned economies continued to rise after a sharp decline and have now surpassed their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies whose housing bubbles burst in the early stages and are still below their peak: Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.</b>Although the eras and countries differ, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has invariably been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates, while the collapse of real estate bubbles has always been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years, but in 2020, housing prices in these four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8%, and 83.2% of the peak, respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with a basically stable housing price trend and a relatively small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three significant upward cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times between 1971 and 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% between 1987 and 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% between 2009 and Q1 2021. The cumulative decline has never exceeded 10% in any downward cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply, and the housing system.</b></p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including first-time homebuyers and those seeking to improve their homes) and financial attributes (investment and speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, housing prices depend not only on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely on the money supply. Based on the experience of global real estate market operation, under the impact of conflicts, plagues, natural disasters, and economic and financial crises, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time along with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rates of local currency housing prices and local currency nominal GDP growth rates in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively, which are relatively close, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52.</b>If Thailand and Malaysia are excluded, the correlation coefficient for 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient for 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be broken down into per capita constant GDP, population, and GDP deflation index. Coupled with the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern, these four factors can better explain the long-term differences in housing price trends in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought about by economic growth. GDP growth at constant prices reflects real economic growth after excluding prices. GDP growth per capita at constant prices in local currency means that residents' real purchasing power has increased and housing demand has increased.</b>From 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices in 23 economies in Q1 was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, while the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (for some economies, data calculations began when housing price data was available; for Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, it began in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991, respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP in constant currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, while Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand have average annual growth rates of over 2.5%, while most other economies have grown below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Demographic effects caused by changes in the total population and its structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth and cross-border population movement. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, with the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-to-high-income, low-to-middle-income, and low-income economies being 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6, respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-to-high-income economies are no longer sufficient to compensate for generational population change. However, high-income economies have attracted large cross-border population inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population into high-income economies reached 140 million, with 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% coming from middle-to-high, middle-to-low, and low-income economies, respectively. The living standards of people in middle- and high-income economies are close to those in high-income economies, and their motivation to migrate is not strong; Low-income economies have strong motivation for population migration, but they find it difficult to bear the costs of migration; Low- and middle-income economies have strong motivation for population migration and can afford the costs of migration. According to UN statistics, Germany's population decreased by approximately 2.3 million between 2004 and 2011, but later returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to decline in 2009, and Italy's population began to decline in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in population structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in population structure, such as the main homebuyers aged 20-50 and household size, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, global household size is trending towards smaller sizes due to factors such as delayed marriage age, increased unmarried and divorce rates, low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, population aging, and population mobility, which has increased housing demand to some extent. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States decreased from 3.33 to 2.54, and in Japan from 4.14 to 2.39. In addition, from 1980 to 2015, the number of people in South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73. Regarding the main home buyers, the US population aged 20-49 continues to grow, while Japan, South Korea, and the UK peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, population growth affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth for many economies that have caught up with the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often shifts to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) The monetary illusion caused by the money supply.</b>International experience shows that most countries experience varying degrees of excessive money supply during economic development, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a higher growth rate of broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual GDP deflation index of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%. This is not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also fluctuates in a relatively consistent manner. For example, from 1970 to Q1 2021, South Africa's broad money supply increased by 532.5 times, while South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times despite a significant excess of money supply, while real GDP increased by only 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. The U.S. broad money supply increased 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased 19.0 times, real GDP increased 2.8 times, the GDP deflator increased 5.2 times, and house prices increased 13 times. However, excessive money supply can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, may even trigger economic crises, such as the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currencies have increased more than in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, from 2001 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies, including India and Mexico, was 13.7%, significantly higher than the 5.3% growth rate in six representative developed economies, including the UK, the US, and Japan. According to BIS statistics, from 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of house prices in emerging economies was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of 3.8% in developed economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>The housing system guides a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices in the long term and support the development of the real economy, while a bad housing system may cause housing prices to rise and fall sharply, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residence-oriented housing system, which has three pillars: a neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing finance system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold homes for the long term and combats speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and encourages long-term rentals. Singapore currently has a dual supply system dominated by HDB flats and supplemented by private homes. The supply structure presents a tiered distribution of \"low-rent housing - affordable housing - improved HDB flats - private homes\". The homeownership rate exceeds 90%, basically achieving housing for everyone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.3 There is a significant difference between the increase in US dollar house prices and the increase in local currency house prices.</b></p><p><b>In US dollar terms, housing price increases in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 2021, and there was a certain correlation between US dollar housing price increases and nominal GDP growth in US dollars. If an economy's money supply is more severe than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency housing prices does not necessarily mean a sharp rise in US dollar housing prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>Based on the increase in US dollar house prices, they can be roughly divided into four categories: First, those with a cumulative increase of more than 50 times and an average annual growth of more than 8%, with only New Zealand having one. Secondly, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth is 7%-7.5%, including three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy, and Japan. Fourth, five economies have a cumulative increase of less than 9 times and an average annual growth of less than 5%: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand, and South Korea. Compared to the increase in local currency house prices, South Africa saw the largest change, with local currency house prices increasing by as much as 110.5 times from 1970 to Q1 2021, but US dollar house prices increasing by only 3.8 times. In addition, Swiss local currency house prices increased by only 4.8 times, but US dollar house prices reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices narrowed to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the perspective of correlation coefficients,</b>The correlation coefficient between dollar house price growth and dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is a weak correlation. However, if we exclude South Korea, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 75.3 times and dollar house prices are only 0.7 times higher, and Ireland, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 99.6 times and dollar house prices are only 28.7 times higher, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies reaches 0.77. This indicates that, from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between dollar-denominated house price growth and dollar-denominated nominal GDP growth in an economy is largely true. The differences in the long-term trend of dollar house prices in different economies can be broken down by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the factor of excessive money supply of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices rose significantly during the pandemic.</b></p><p><b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of more than 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, Turkish house prices rose by 32%, ranking first. New Zealand followed closely behind, rising 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. Meanwhile, price increases in major Asian countries were lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Japan followed closely behind, rising 5.7%; Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to factors such as the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the pandemic, central banks around the world have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, which has reached the people through enterprise relief funds, unemployment benefits and other means. Meanwhile, under loose monetary policy, mortgage rates have decreased. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing policies has made people eager to find assets to preserve value, and real estate, which has the attributes of preserving and increasing value, has become the first choice for investment. 2) From a demand perspective, the pent-up demand for improvements during the pandemic was released after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events like the pandemic have led more and more investors to try to reduce risk by diversifying their asset allocation, making owning a second home a choice for more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From a supply perspective, the loose monetary policy has led to a general rise in asset prices, increased raw material prices, and increased construction costs. At the same time, the pandemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and thus driving up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. Which region within a country has seen the largest increase in housing prices: metropolitan areas with population inflows?</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases.</b></p><p>London has three areas: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London, also known as the City of London, is very small in area. In a general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, which includes 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the United Kingdom. The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and its surrounding areas. Due to urban planning issues and other problems that have led to prominent problems in large cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London decreased from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and later rebounded to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of the economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, and its proportion increased from 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Over the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in the UK and England (71 and 81 times, respectively) and the UK's nominal GDP increase (51 times).</b>According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from £4,400 to £500,000, in England from £3,400 to £275,000, and nationwide from £3,600 to £256,000. House prices in London increased 113 times, 71 times higher than the national average and 81 times higher than in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the UK's nominal GDP increased 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and house price increases significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the house price increases in Greater London were very similar to those in England and the UK before 1994, but the volatility increased significantly after 1995, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England, and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times, and 14.6 times respectively, with relatively small differences. However, from then until March 2018, the price increases varied significantly, reaching 5.3 times, 3.5 times, and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England, and the UK fell by 16.6%, 15.0%, and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009, respectively. Subsequently, against the backdrop of monetary stimulus for quantitative easing, housing prices gradually rebounded, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5%, and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Looking within the London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, while the increases in surrounding areas are all below 6.0%.</b>From January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London rose 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2, and 5.4 times, respectively. The house price increase in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. Furthermore, house prices in Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, rose only 4.6 times during that period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>Looking within Greater London, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times in the past 26 years, while house prices in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from £78,300 per unit to £594,500 per unit, a 7.6-fold increase. House prices in Outer London rose 6.2 times from £73,000 to £451,000. Currently, the most expensive homes in London are in Kensington and Chelsea (£1.2272 million per unit), followed by the City of Westminster (£936,800 per unit), representing increases of 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively compared to January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding those in surrounding areas.</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: the City of Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including the three suburban departments), and the Paris Region (including the four outer departments, also known as \"Île-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761, and 11,001 square kilometers respectively. The Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France's land area. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has long been concentrated in Paris and its surrounding areas. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, its population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and its economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, in order to control the population and address the problems of large cities, Paris experienced a long period of decline, from 2.89 million to 2.13 million from 1931 to 1999, before rebounding to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, housing prices in Paris have increased 43.7 times, significantly exceeding the average increase in French housing prices (26.6 times) and the increase in French nominal GDP (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2%, and 6.4%, respectively.</b>Prior to this, between 1945 and 1965, influenced by post-war reconstruction, the baby boom, and significant excess money supply, housing prices in Paris and France surged 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Viewed in stages,</b>The trend of housing prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, housing prices rose rapidly. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6%, respectively. 2) 1992-1997, a period of decline in housing prices. Due to rampant real estate speculation and excessive price increases in Paris around 1985-1990 (with increases exceeding 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), Parisian housing prices began to fall sharply. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of -6.1%, -0.4%, and 3.8%, respectively. By the end of 1997, Parisian house prices had plummeted to 69% of their 1991 levels. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0%, respectively. Among them, Paris house prices fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, Paris house prices experienced a significant increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Paris saw the highest increase in housing prices in the Paris region. From Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Paris increased by more than 3.5 times, significantly higher than those in the three suburban departments and the four outer suburban departments.</b>Because Paris has a relatively small land area (105 square kilometers), slightly larger than the combined area of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we will no longer analyze housing prices within Paris. Instead, we will take Paris as the core area of the Paris region and analyze the differences in housing price trends between it and other areas of the Paris region. According to data from the French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times increase in the three near-suburban departments and the 1.6 times increase in the four far-suburban departments. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis, and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times, and 2.4 times, respectively. House prices in the four outlying departments of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne, and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.5 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City home prices have increased ninefold in 46 years, with Queens performing better.</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical District, etc. New York City covers an area of 789 square kilometers and had a population of 8.55 million in 2015. The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015. The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. In terms of population, due to the shift of the US economic center to the West Coast and South Coast, although the population of the New York area continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was far less than that of the Los Angeles area, which led to a significant decline in the population share of the New York area. During this period, due to suburbanization and the decline of manufacturing, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million between 1950 and 1980. Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rebounded to 8.55 million in 2015, but decreased slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>Over the past 46 years, New York City home prices have increased more than ninefold, higher than the U.S. average, but lower than the price increases in the surrounding areas of New York City and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, home prices in the United States, New York City, the New York-Jersey-White Plains area (one of the New York metropolitan areas) (1976-Q1 2021), and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan areas) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. While the price increase in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was not as high as that in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area, it was still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that New York City housing prices lagged behind U.S. nominal GDP and M2 during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area outpaced U.S. nominal GDP, approaching M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the New York metropolitan area, housing prices in the New York subdivision have more than quadrupled in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions of the New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains division, the New York metropolitan area also includes three divisions: Nassau County-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The housing price trends in the four major districts were basically the same. Among them, the Nassau County–Suffolk County district saw a 4.3-fold increase from 1986 to Q1 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first. The New York-Jersey City-White Plains area saw a 4.1-fold increase, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, ranking second. The Newark subdivision and the Dutchess County-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) increased by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within New York City, housing prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, higher than in New York City.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, home prices in Manhattan, New York City, increased 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%. Home prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, home prices in New York City and the New York borough increased 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities saw a 210-fold increase in prices over 36 years.</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Ward and Tokyo Metropolitan Area, which includes Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2,188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. The Tokyo metropolitan area accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area and had a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's total. Currently, the region's GDP accounts for about one-third of Japan's total.</p><p>Japan's population movement can be divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population was basically concentrated in the three poles of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya areas. From 1884 to 1973, excluding the impact of war, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% of the total population. The population of the Osaka area increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% of the total population. The population of the Nagoya area increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% of the total population. Subsequently, the population concentration shifted to the Tokyo metropolitan area, while the inflow and outflow of population in the Nagoya metropolitan area were basically balanced, and the Osaka metropolitan area experienced a long-term net outflow. By 2016, the populations of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas were 36.29 million, 18.31 million, and 11.34 million, respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4%, and 8.9% of the total population. During this period, the population growth of the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas mainly stemmed from natural growth. Tokyo's population growth stagnated between 1970 and 1997, mainly due to industrial relocation and population migration from the Tokyo metropolitan area. However, the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan wards and the three prefectures within the Tokyo metropolitan area grew significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices continued to rise except for an adjustment in 1975, increasing 82 times between 1955 and 1991, exceeding the 55 times nominal GDP growth rate during that period. Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, while in non-core cities they rose 78 times. Looking at the stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in Japan's six core cities—Tokyo Ward, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe—increased 40.6 times, averaging 21.7% annually, while other cities increased 29.6 times, averaging 19.7% annually. During the same period, nominal GDP increased 15 times, averaging 15.7% annually. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in the six core cities rose 4.5 times, averaging 11.2% per year, while other cities rose 1.7 times, averaging 6.4% per year. During the same period, nominal GDP rose 2.2 times, averaging 7.5% per year.</p><p>Japanese housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main homebuyers. However, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s due to factors such as the rapid rise in the later stages, a sharp decline in the birth rate, the peak of the main homebuyers in the 1990s, and the Japanese government's erroneous response. After that, Japanese land prices continued to adjust until 2005, and in 2017, Japanese land prices were only 47.1% of their peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After a short-term rise from 2006 to 2008, they fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rebound in 2013 and have since reached 35.3% of the peak in 1991. Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The land price trend in the Tokyo area is basically the same as that in Japan as a whole, but its peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that in Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual increase of 11.1%. The decline continued until 2005, when it rebounded ahead of the rest of the country in 2014.</b>Housing prices in the Tokyo and Osaka areas peaked in 1990, while land prices in the Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992, respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0%. Especially before the housing bubble burst, land prices in the Tokyo area surged 0.95 times between 1987 and 1988, and in the Osaka area surged 1.6 times between 1988 and 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, land prices in the Tokyo area fell sharply until 2005. They began to rebound in 2006-2008, but were adjusted again in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and began to rebound again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of their peak values, respectively. The reason why land prices in the Osaka area have adjusted the most drastically is because they saw the largest increase before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>Land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988 and doubled in the five years prior to peaking. At the same time, they adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest within the Tokyo metropolitan area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and its wards peaked in 1988, two years earlier than in the Tokyo metropolitan area and three years earlier than in Japan as a whole. In the five years before the peak, housing prices in Tokyo's wards doubled, 1.8 times higher than in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than in the Tokyo metropolitan area. After peaking, housing prices in Tokyo and its wards continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rebound in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo wards rose by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in non-wards of Tokyo remained basically flat, while housing prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell by 1.7% cumulatively. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, its wards, and non-metropolitan wards were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7%, and 38.8% of their peak values, respectively, very close to the 40.7% in the Tokyo metropolitan area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Conclusion: Over the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing presses, driving new housing reforms.</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, population changes, money supply, and housing system. The first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive money supply can lead to a surge in domestic local currency housing prices, but not necessarily a surge in US dollar housing prices, meaning they may not have investment value from a global perspective. Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflationary properties and can partially share in the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies exceeded their respective CPI growth rates to varying degrees. In the UK, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, the average annual growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was still over 3%, while in Japan and Germany, the growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was close to 0. Compared to nominal GDP growth in local currencies, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed housing prices in Q1 of 1970-2021. This means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share in the dividends of economic growth.</p><p><b>In the long run, excessive global money supply is a common phenomenon. Broad money growth is often higher than nominal GDP growth, and few assets can outperform the money printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, UK house prices grew at an average annual rate of 5.6% from 1987 to 2020. Although this was higher than the average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money supply of 7.1%. From 1960 to 2020, U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5%, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at average annual rates of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was 5.8%, lower than the 6.8% growth rate of M2 during the same period and the same as the 5.8% growth rate of GDP. In China, the broad money supply M2 has grown at an average annual rate of 15% over the past forty years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly built housing nationwide has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the M2 growth rate during the same period. Meanwhile, housing prices in first-tier cities have basically kept pace with the M2 growth rate.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have significant investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies experience severe excessive money supply and significant housing price increases. However, from a global asset allocation perspective, investors focus on the increase in US dollar housing prices, which excludes exchange rate changes caused by relative excessive money supply. The increase in US dollar housing prices is mainly related to the growth of nominal US dollar GDP and can be broken down into factors such as economic growth, population changes, and housing systems. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may experience a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but attention should be paid to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a new housing system in China that is residence-oriented.</b>The development of China's real estate market over the past two decades has shown that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term supply and demand imbalance, and deepening housing system reform is the foundation for achieving stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, we will reform the \"people-land linkage\" and optimize land supply.</b>The current \"people-land linkage\" system links the number of rural migrants to the supply of construction land, which cannot solve the contradiction between population inflow and housing supply shortages in hot cities. In the future, it is necessary to promote the linking of new permanent residents to land supply and the balance between cross-provincial arable land occupation and compensation to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land. For example, the sale of land quotas in the Northeast and West regions can effectively solve the current problem of a large waste of land quotas in the Northeast and West. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory reduction cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply model.</p><p><b>Second, maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate finance policy.</b>Implement long-term and stable housing credit financial policies to stabilize homebuyers' expectations, support first-time homebuyers and those seeking to upgrade their homes, and curb speculative demand. Support real estate companies' reasonable financing needs, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>Third, we will transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply entities.</b>Currently, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over rental, and a housing system with diverse supply entities has not yet been established. In the future, the main suppliers will shift from developers to multiple suppliers, including the government, developers, leasing intermediaries, and long-term rental companies. The supply form will also shift from primarily commercial housing to multiple categories such as commercial housing, rental housing, and shared ownership housing. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be tailored to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be especially wary of blindly following trends.</p><p><b>Fourth, we will steadily promote the property tax pilot program.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and transaction taxes in the era of existing housing stock, the introduction of a property tax is an inevitable trend. International experience shows that property tax is typically regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue in mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization, and phased progress\". \"Legislation first\" means enacting legislation before implementing taxes; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing local governments to conduct pilot programs tailored to local conditions, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. According to international experience, property tax is a local main tax. \"Distributed progress\" is a positive and steady approach, and efforts should be made to ensure that the plan is mature and to guide social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping's team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We have proposed a widely circulated analytical framework in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This article looks at global housing price trends, examining the factors and patterns driving housing price trends in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b></p><p><b>Over the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have risen by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b>First, housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%. Secondly, 14 economies, including Ireland and Australia, have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and average annual growth of 5.5%-8%. Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than five times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of over 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by 22%. However, the increases in major Asian countries have been lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The largest increases in housing prices occurred in metropolitan areas where a country's population flowed in.</b>London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</p><p><b>Our call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) is urgent. We should accelerate the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market, with the linking of people and land, control of currency and property tax as the core, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a window of opportunity in the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Differences in housing price increases across different economies: economic growth, population changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 Significant differences in housing price trends across 23 economies over the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, housing prices in four economies—South Africa, New Zealand, Spain, and the United Kingdom—have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>South Africa and New Zealand have seen cumulative house price increases of 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies. UK house prices have risen 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased by 60.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-8%: Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States, and Belgium.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9% for both countries. Hong Kong property prices rose 19.9 times from Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%. From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia rose 5.1 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%. The other 10 countries saw increases ranging from 15 to 40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% to 7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, five economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of less than five times and average annual growth of less than 4%: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany, and Japan.</b>Thailand's stock price increased 1.8 times from Q1 1991 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, South Korean housing prices rose 3.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the correlation between global housing price trends is gradually increasing.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, house prices in Japan and South Korea fell in the early 1990s, house prices in Southeast Asia fell in 1997, and the global real estate market fell in 2007.<b>Looking at housing price trends over the past 51 years, the 23 economies can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies that have seen housing prices rise continuously with minor adjustments during this period: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any of the aforementioned four countries has not exceeded 9% in any downward cycle. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada did not experience two consecutive years of decline; France experienced three significant adjustments, from 1992 to 1995, from 2008 to 2009, and from 2011 to 2015, but the cumulative decline in each of the three periods never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand, experienced a sharp decline in housing prices but later rose above their previous highs.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% between 1979 and 1982 and by more than 19% between 2008 and 2013; house prices in South Africa fell by 11% between 1984 and 1986; house prices in Finland plummeted by 37% between 1990 and 1992; house prices in Switzerland plummeted by 22% between 1990 and 1998; house prices in Malaysia and Thailand both plummeted by more than 11% between 1997 and 1998 and 1998, respectively; house prices in Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% between 1998 and 2003; house prices in the United States plummeted by more than 30% between 2007 and 2011; and house prices in the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% between 1990 and 1992 and by more than 13% between 2008 and 2009. Housing prices in the aforementioned economies continued to rise after a sharp decline and have now surpassed their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies whose housing bubbles burst in the early stages and are still below their peak: Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.</b>Although the eras and countries differ, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has invariably been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates, while the collapse of real estate bubbles has always been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years, but in 2020, housing prices in these four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8%, and 83.2% of the peak, respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with a basically stable housing price trend and a relatively small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three significant upward cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times between 1971 and 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% between 1987 and 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% between 2009 and Q1 2021. The cumulative decline has never exceeded 10% in any downward cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply, and the housing system.</b></p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including first-time homebuyers and those seeking to improve their homes) and financial attributes (investment and speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, housing prices depend not only on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely on the money supply. Based on the experience of global real estate market operation, under the impact of conflicts, plagues, natural disasters, and economic and financial crises, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time along with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rates of local currency housing prices and local currency nominal GDP growth rates in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively, which are relatively close, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52.</b>If Thailand and Malaysia are excluded, the correlation coefficient for 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient for 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be broken down into per capita constant GDP, population, and GDP deflation index. Coupled with the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern, these four factors can better explain the long-term differences in housing price trends in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought about by economic growth. GDP growth at constant prices reflects real economic growth after excluding prices. GDP growth per capita at constant prices in local currency means that residents' real purchasing power has increased and housing demand has increased.</b>From 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices in 23 economies in Q1 was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, while the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (for some economies, data calculations began when housing price data was available; for Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, it began in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991, respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP in constant currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, while Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand have average annual growth rates of over 2.5%, while most other economies have grown below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Demographic effects caused by changes in the total population and its structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth and cross-border population movement. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, with the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-to-high-income, low-to-middle-income, and low-income economies being 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6, respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-to-high-income economies are no longer sufficient to compensate for generational population change. However, high-income economies have attracted large cross-border population inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population into high-income economies reached 140 million, with 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% coming from middle-to-high, middle-to-low, and low-income economies, respectively. The living standards of people in middle- and high-income economies are close to those in high-income economies, and their motivation to migrate is not strong; Low-income economies have strong motivation for population migration, but they find it difficult to bear the costs of migration; Low- and middle-income economies have strong motivation for population migration and can afford the costs of migration. According to UN statistics, Germany's population decreased by approximately 2.3 million between 2004 and 2011, but later returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to decline in 2009, and Italy's population began to decline in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in population structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in population structure, such as the main homebuyers aged 20-50 and household size, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, global household size is trending towards smaller sizes due to factors such as delayed marriage age, increased unmarried and divorce rates, low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, population aging, and population mobility, which has increased housing demand to some extent. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States decreased from 3.33 to 2.54, and in Japan from 4.14 to 2.39. In addition, from 1980 to 2015, the number of people in South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73. Regarding the main home buyers, the US population aged 20-49 continues to grow, while Japan, South Korea, and the UK peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, population growth affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth for many economies that have caught up with the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often shifts to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) The monetary illusion caused by the money supply.</b>International experience shows that most countries experience varying degrees of excessive money supply during economic development, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a higher growth rate of broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual GDP deflation index of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%. This is not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also fluctuates in a relatively consistent manner. For example, from 1970 to Q1 2021, South Africa's broad money supply increased by 532.5 times, while South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times despite a significant excess of money supply, while real GDP increased by only 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. The U.S. broad money supply increased 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased 19.0 times, real GDP increased 2.8 times, the GDP deflator increased 5.2 times, and house prices increased 13 times. However, excessive money supply can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, may even trigger economic crises, such as the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currencies have increased more than in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, from 2001 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies, including India and Mexico, was 13.7%, significantly higher than the 5.3% growth rate in six representative developed economies, including the UK, the US, and Japan. According to BIS statistics, from 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of house prices in emerging economies was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of 3.8% in developed economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>The housing system guides a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices in the long term and support the development of the real economy, while a bad housing system may cause housing prices to rise and fall sharply, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residence-oriented housing system, which has three pillars: a neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing finance system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold homes for the long term and combats speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and encourages long-term rentals. Singapore currently has a dual supply system dominated by HDB flats and supplemented by private homes. The supply structure presents a tiered distribution of \"low-rent housing - affordable housing - improved HDB flats - private homes\". The homeownership rate exceeds 90%, basically achieving housing for everyone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.3 There is a significant difference between the increase in US dollar house prices and the increase in local currency house prices.</b></p><p><b>In US dollar terms, housing price increases in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 2021, and there was a certain correlation between US dollar housing price increases and nominal GDP growth in US dollars. If an economy's money supply is more severe than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency housing prices does not necessarily mean a sharp rise in US dollar housing prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>Based on the increase in US dollar house prices, they can be roughly divided into four categories: First, those with a cumulative increase of more than 50 times and an average annual growth of more than 8%, with only New Zealand having one. Secondly, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth is 7%-7.5%, including three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy, and Japan. Fourth, five economies have a cumulative increase of less than 9 times and an average annual growth of less than 5%: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand, and South Korea. Compared to the increase in local currency house prices, South Africa saw the largest change, with local currency house prices increasing by as much as 110.5 times from 1970 to Q1 2021, but US dollar house prices increasing by only 3.8 times. In addition, Swiss local currency house prices increased by only 4.8 times, but US dollar house prices reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices narrowed to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the perspective of correlation coefficients,</b>The correlation coefficient between dollar house price growth and dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is a weak correlation. However, if we exclude South Korea, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 75.3 times and dollar house prices are only 0.7 times higher, and Ireland, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 99.6 times and dollar house prices are only 28.7 times higher, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies reaches 0.77. This indicates that, from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between dollar-denominated house price growth and dollar-denominated nominal GDP growth in an economy is largely true. The differences in the long-term trend of dollar house prices in different economies can be broken down by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the factor of excessive money supply of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices rose significantly during the pandemic.</b></p><p><b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of more than 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, Turkish house prices rose by 32%, ranking first. New Zealand followed closely behind, rising 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. Meanwhile, price increases in major Asian countries were lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Japan followed closely behind, rising 5.7%; Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to factors such as the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the pandemic, central banks around the world have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, which has reached the people through enterprise relief funds, unemployment benefits and other means. Meanwhile, under loose monetary policy, mortgage rates have decreased. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing policies has made people eager to find assets to preserve value, and real estate, which has the attributes of preserving and increasing value, has become the first choice for investment. 2) From a demand perspective, the pent-up demand for improvements during the pandemic was released after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events like the pandemic have led more and more investors to try to reduce risk by diversifying their asset allocation, making owning a second home a choice for more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From a supply perspective, the loose monetary policy has led to a general rise in asset prices, increased raw material prices, and increased construction costs. At the same time, the pandemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and thus driving up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. Which region within a country has seen the largest increase in housing prices: metropolitan areas with population inflows?</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases.</b></p><p>London has three areas: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London, also known as the City of London, is very small in area. In a general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, which includes 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the United Kingdom. The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and its surrounding areas. Due to urban planning issues and other problems that have led to prominent problems in large cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London decreased from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and later rebounded to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of the economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, and its proportion increased from 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Over the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in the UK and England (71 and 81 times, respectively) and the UK's nominal GDP increase (51 times).</b>According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from £4,400 to £500,000, in England from £3,400 to £275,000, and nationwide from £3,600 to £256,000. House prices in London increased 113 times, 71 times higher than the national average and 81 times higher than in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the UK's nominal GDP increased 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and house price increases significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the house price increases in Greater London were very similar to those in England and the UK before 1994, but the volatility increased significantly after 1995, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England, and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times, and 14.6 times respectively, with relatively small differences. However, from then until March 2018, the price increases varied significantly, reaching 5.3 times, 3.5 times, and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England, and the UK fell by 16.6%, 15.0%, and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009, respectively. Subsequently, against the backdrop of monetary stimulus for quantitative easing, housing prices gradually rebounded, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5%, and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Looking within the London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, while the increases in surrounding areas are all below 6.0%.</b>From January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London rose 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2, and 5.4 times, respectively. The house price increase in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. Furthermore, house prices in Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, rose only 4.6 times during that period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>Looking within Greater London, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times in the past 26 years, while house prices in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from £78,300 per unit to £594,500 per unit, a 7.6-fold increase. House prices in Outer London rose 6.2 times from £73,000 to £451,000. Currently, the most expensive homes in London are in Kensington and Chelsea (£1.2272 million per unit), followed by the City of Westminster (£936,800 per unit), representing increases of 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively compared to January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding those in surrounding areas.</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: the City of Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including the three suburban departments), and the Paris Region (including the four outer departments, also known as \"Île-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761, and 11,001 square kilometers respectively. The Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France's land area. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has long been concentrated in Paris and its surrounding areas. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, its population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and its economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, in order to control the population and address the problems of large cities, Paris experienced a long period of decline, from 2.89 million to 2.13 million from 1931 to 1999, before rebounding to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, housing prices in Paris have increased 43.7 times, significantly exceeding the average increase in French housing prices (26.6 times) and the increase in French nominal GDP (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2%, and 6.4%, respectively.</b>Prior to this, between 1945 and 1965, influenced by post-war reconstruction, the baby boom, and significant excess money supply, housing prices in Paris and France surged 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Viewed in stages,</b>The trend of housing prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, housing prices rose rapidly. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6%, respectively. 2) 1992-1997, a period of decline in housing prices. Due to rampant real estate speculation and excessive price increases in Paris around 1985-1990 (with increases exceeding 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), Parisian housing prices began to fall sharply. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of -6.1%, -0.4%, and 3.8%, respectively. By the end of 1997, Parisian house prices had plummeted to 69% of their 1991 levels. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0%, respectively. Among them, Paris house prices fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, Paris house prices experienced a significant increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Paris saw the highest increase in housing prices in the Paris region. From Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Paris increased by more than 3.5 times, significantly higher than those in the three suburban departments and the four outer suburban departments.</b>Because Paris has a relatively small land area (105 square kilometers), slightly larger than the combined area of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we will no longer analyze housing prices within Paris. Instead, we will take Paris as the core area of the Paris region and analyze the differences in housing price trends between it and other areas of the Paris region. According to data from the French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times increase in the three near-suburban departments and the 1.6 times increase in the four far-suburban departments. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis, and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times, and 2.4 times, respectively. House prices in the four outlying departments of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne, and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.5 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City home prices have increased ninefold in 46 years, with Queens performing better.</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical District, etc. New York City covers an area of 789 square kilometers and had a population of 8.55 million in 2015. The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015. The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. In terms of population, due to the shift of the US economic center to the West Coast and South Coast, although the population of the New York area continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was far less than that of the Los Angeles area, which led to a significant decline in the population share of the New York area. During this period, due to suburbanization and the decline of manufacturing, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million between 1950 and 1980. Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rebounded to 8.55 million in 2015, but decreased slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>Over the past 46 years, New York City home prices have increased more than ninefold, higher than the U.S. average, but lower than the price increases in the surrounding areas of New York City and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, home prices in the United States, New York City, the New York-Jersey-White Plains area (one of the New York metropolitan areas) (1976-Q1 2021), and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan areas) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. While the price increase in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was not as high as that in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area, it was still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that New York City housing prices lagged behind U.S. nominal GDP and M2 during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area outpaced U.S. nominal GDP, approaching M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the New York metropolitan area, housing prices in the New York subdivision have more than quadrupled in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions of the New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains division, the New York metropolitan area also includes three divisions: Nassau County-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The housing price trends in the four major districts were basically the same. Among them, the Nassau County–Suffolk County district saw a 4.3-fold increase from 1986 to Q1 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first. The New York-Jersey City-White Plains area saw a 4.1-fold increase, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, ranking second. The Newark subdivision and the Dutchess County-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) increased by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within New York City, housing prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, higher than in New York City.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, home prices in Manhattan, New York City, increased 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%. Home prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, home prices in New York City and the New York borough increased 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities saw a 210-fold increase in prices over 36 years.</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Ward and Tokyo Metropolitan Area, which includes Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2,188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. The Tokyo metropolitan area accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area and had a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's total. Currently, the region's GDP accounts for about one-third of Japan's total.</p><p>Japan's population movement can be divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population was basically concentrated in the three poles of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya areas. From 1884 to 1973, excluding the impact of war, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% of the total population. The population of the Osaka area increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% of the total population. The population of the Nagoya area increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% of the total population. Subsequently, the population concentration shifted to the Tokyo metropolitan area, while the inflow and outflow of population in the Nagoya metropolitan area were basically balanced, and the Osaka metropolitan area experienced a long-term net outflow. By 2016, the populations of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas were 36.29 million, 18.31 million, and 11.34 million, respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4%, and 8.9% of the total population. During this period, the population growth of the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas mainly stemmed from natural growth. Tokyo's population growth stagnated between 1970 and 1997, mainly due to industrial relocation and population migration from the Tokyo metropolitan area. However, the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan wards and the three prefectures within the Tokyo metropolitan area grew significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices continued to rise except for an adjustment in 1975, increasing 82 times between 1955 and 1991, exceeding the 55 times nominal GDP growth rate during that period. Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, while in non-core cities they rose 78 times. Looking at the stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in Japan's six core cities—Tokyo Ward, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe—increased 40.6 times, averaging 21.7% annually, while other cities increased 29.6 times, averaging 19.7% annually. During the same period, nominal GDP increased 15 times, averaging 15.7% annually. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in the six core cities rose 4.5 times, averaging 11.2% per year, while other cities rose 1.7 times, averaging 6.4% per year. During the same period, nominal GDP rose 2.2 times, averaging 7.5% per year.</p><p>Japanese housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main homebuyers. However, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s due to factors such as the rapid rise in the later stages, a sharp decline in the birth rate, the peak of the main homebuyers in the 1990s, and the Japanese government's erroneous response. After that, Japanese land prices continued to adjust until 2005, and in 2017, Japanese land prices were only 47.1% of their peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After a short-term rise from 2006 to 2008, they fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rebound in 2013 and have since reached 35.3% of the peak in 1991. Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The land price trend in the Tokyo area is basically the same as that in Japan as a whole, but its peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that in Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual increase of 11.1%. The decline continued until 2005, when it rebounded ahead of the rest of the country in 2014.</b>Housing prices in the Tokyo and Osaka areas peaked in 1990, while land prices in the Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992, respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0%. Especially before the housing bubble burst, land prices in the Tokyo area surged 0.95 times between 1987 and 1988, and in the Osaka area surged 1.6 times between 1988 and 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, land prices in the Tokyo area fell sharply until 2005. They began to rebound in 2006-2008, but were adjusted again in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and began to rebound again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of their peak values, respectively. The reason why land prices in the Osaka area have adjusted the most drastically is because they saw the largest increase before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>Land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988 and doubled in the five years prior to peaking. At the same time, they adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest within the Tokyo metropolitan area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and its wards peaked in 1988, two years earlier than in the Tokyo metropolitan area and three years earlier than in Japan as a whole. In the five years before the peak, housing prices in Tokyo's wards doubled, 1.8 times higher than in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than in the Tokyo metropolitan area. After peaking, housing prices in Tokyo and its wards continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rebound in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo wards rose by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in non-wards of Tokyo remained basically flat, while housing prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell by 1.7% cumulatively. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, its wards, and non-metropolitan wards were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7%, and 38.8% of their peak values, respectively, very close to the 40.7% in the Tokyo metropolitan area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Conclusion: Over the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing presses, driving new housing reforms.</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, population changes, money supply, and housing system. The first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive money supply can lead to a surge in domestic local currency housing prices, but not necessarily a surge in US dollar housing prices, meaning they may not have investment value from a global perspective. Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflationary properties and can partially share in the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies exceeded their respective CPI growth rates to varying degrees. In the UK, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, the average annual growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was still over 3%, while in Japan and Germany, the growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was close to 0. Compared to nominal GDP growth in local currencies, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed housing prices in Q1 of 1970-2021. This means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share in the dividends of economic growth.</p><p><b>In the long run, excessive global money supply is a common phenomenon. Broad money growth is often higher than nominal GDP growth, and few assets can outperform the money printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, UK house prices grew at an average annual rate of 5.6% from 1987 to 2020. Although this was higher than the average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money supply of 7.1%. From 1960 to 2020, U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5%, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at average annual rates of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was 5.8%, lower than the 6.8% growth rate of M2 during the same period and the same as the 5.8% growth rate of GDP. In China, the broad money supply M2 has grown at an average annual rate of 15% over the past forty years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly built housing nationwide has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the M2 growth rate during the same period. Meanwhile, housing prices in first-tier cities have basically kept pace with the M2 growth rate.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have significant investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies experience severe excessive money supply and significant housing price increases. However, from a global asset allocation perspective, investors focus on the increase in US dollar housing prices, which excludes exchange rate changes caused by relative excessive money supply. The increase in US dollar housing prices is mainly related to the growth of nominal US dollar GDP and can be broken down into factors such as economic growth, population changes, and housing systems. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may experience a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but attention should be paid to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a new housing system in China that is residence-oriented.</b>The development of China's real estate market over the past two decades has shown that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term supply and demand imbalance, and deepening housing system reform is the foundation for achieving stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, we will reform the \"people-land linkage\" and optimize land supply.</b>The current \"people-land linkage\" system links the number of rural migrants to the supply of construction land, which cannot solve the contradiction between population inflow and housing supply shortages in hot cities. In the future, it is necessary to promote the linking of new permanent residents to land supply and the balance between cross-provincial arable land occupation and compensation to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land. For example, the sale of land quotas in the Northeast and West regions can effectively solve the current problem of a large waste of land quotas in the Northeast and West. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory reduction cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply model.</p><p><b>Second, maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate finance policy.</b>Implement long-term and stable housing credit financial policies to stabilize homebuyers' expectations, support first-time homebuyers and those seeking to upgrade their homes, and curb speculative demand. Support real estate companies' reasonable financing needs, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>Third, we will transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply entities.</b>Currently, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over rental, and a housing system with diverse supply entities has not yet been established. In the future, the main suppliers will shift from developers to multiple suppliers, including the government, developers, leasing intermediaries, and long-term rental companies. The supply form will also shift from primarily commercial housing to multiple categories such as commercial housing, rental housing, and shared ownership housing. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be tailored to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be especially wary of blindly following trends.</p><p><b>Fourth, we will steadily promote the property tax pilot program.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and transaction taxes in the era of existing housing stock, the introduction of a property tax is an inevitable trend. International experience shows that property tax is typically regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue in mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization, and phased progress\". \"Legislation first\" means enacting legislation before implementing taxes; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing local governments to conduct pilot programs tailored to local conditions, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. According to international experience, property tax is a local main tax. \"Distributed progress\" is a positive and steady approach, and efforts should be made to ensure that the plan is mature and to guide social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF华夏","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116529888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628867931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116529888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:18","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、","content":"<p>On August 13th, the decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Weibo fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13th, the decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Weibo fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116529888","content_text":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东、网易跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007434379,"gmtCreate":1642982565519,"gmtModify":1676533761379,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🤟🤟🚀","listText":"🤟🤟🚀","text":"🤟🤟🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007434379","repostId":"1171166423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006830083,"gmtCreate":1641685297165,"gmtModify":1676533638852,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","listText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","text":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006830083","repostId":"2201217750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201217750","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641601341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201217750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-08 08:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Airbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to media reports citing industry insiders, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>Previously, reports indicated that Airbus exceeded its target of delivering 600 aircraft for the full year of 2021, continuing to lead its main competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Company.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries were key to generating cash. It is understood that during times of crisis, some airlines were allowed to postpone the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load sheet through some workarounds, thereby partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditing agencies.</p><p>Airbus will release its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Currently, the aviation industry is trying to readjust its supply chain, which has been weakened by the pandemic. With Airbus confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body aircraft productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Industry insiders say that some aircraft originally scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months due to logistical bottlenecks and chip shortages for some components. Reports indicate that the delivery of some aircraft may even be postponed until 2023.</p><p>Analysts say that although Airbus has not yet provided a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 series narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month before the summer of 2023. It's worth noting that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to partnerships with France...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Saifeng</a>The group and other engine manufacturers abandoned the plan due to disagreements.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus reportedly exceeded its 2021 delivery targets, and analysts are optimistic about this year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to media reports citing industry insiders, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>Previously, reports indicated that Airbus exceeded its target of delivering 600 aircraft for the full year of 2021, continuing to lead its main competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Company.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries were key to generating cash. It is understood that during times of crisis, some airlines were allowed to postpone the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load sheet through some workarounds, thereby partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditing agencies.</p><p>Airbus will release its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Currently, the aviation industry is trying to readjust its supply chain, which has been weakened by the pandemic. With Airbus confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body aircraft productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Industry insiders say that some aircraft originally scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months due to logistical bottlenecks and chip shortages for some components. Reports indicate that the delivery of some aircraft may even be postponed until 2023.</p><p>Analysts say that although Airbus has not yet provided a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 series narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month before the summer of 2023. It's worth noting that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to partnerships with France...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Saifeng</a>The group and other engine manufacturers abandoned the plan due to disagreements.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073707600,"gmtCreate":1657415701800,"gmtModify":1676536003862,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","text":"$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69058e6b5c8cdcc080cc6f875dcf79e7","width":"1242","height":"2505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073707600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting approaches, investors await any signals the Federal Reserve might give regarding Taper, and the market falls into a kind of calm before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, from August 26 to 28 local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, based on past experience, the Federal Reserve often drops a \"bombshell\" at its Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to provide clues at this annual meeting regarding the timing and methods of reducing bond purchases. However, the recurring pandemic has added uncertainty.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a research report titled \"Jackson Hold,\" strategists such as Mark Cabana stated that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but remain virtually unchanged for two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al. wrote: \"We would not be surprised if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech outlining the progress of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and acknowledging that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not signal it.\"</p><p><h2>The market is on high alert</h2>However, US Treasury bonds have entered a period of high alert, and their trend has remained almost flat over the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data shows that the number of customers holding a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury Bond has reached its highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, following the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rebounded from a six-month low, but the rebound has now stopped, with the yield falling to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, US stocks are performing strongly, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a new record for the longest winning streak since 1999. However, the higher the price increases, the higher the risk of accumulation.</p><p>In a report, Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned that interest rate risk is at an all-time high with the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects arising from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Subramanian stated that among the 20 market indicators tracked by the bank, most are statistically too expensive. Earnings growth is expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to inflation and the economic slowdown. Record interest rate risk means that even if interest rates rise only slightly, the stock market decline will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian pointed out that a growing number of Federal Reserve officials are urging a reduction in bond purchases, and implied market volatility has increased following the release of a strong jobs report.</p><p>In this context, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500 index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks that hastily raised their S&P 500 forecasts when the market was rising, Bank of America remains the only bearish, forecasting the 10-year yield to reach 1.9% by the end of the year, an increase of about 55 basis points from the current level, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall by about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure is mounting, and everyone is focused on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting approaches, investors await any signals the Federal Reserve might give regarding Taper, and the market falls into a kind of calm before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, from August 26 to 28 local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, based on past experience, the Federal Reserve often drops a \"bombshell\" at its Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to provide clues at this annual meeting regarding the timing and methods of reducing bond purchases. However, the recurring pandemic has added uncertainty.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a research report titled \"Jackson Hold,\" strategists such as Mark Cabana stated that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but remain virtually unchanged for two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al. wrote: \"We would not be surprised if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech outlining the progress of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and acknowledging that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not signal it.\"</p><p><h2>The market is on high alert</h2>However, US Treasury bonds have entered a period of high alert, and their trend has remained almost flat over the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data shows that the number of customers holding a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury Bond has reached its highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, following the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rebounded from a six-month low, but the rebound has now stopped, with the yield falling to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, US stocks are performing strongly, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a new record for the longest winning streak since 1999. However, the higher the price increases, the higher the risk of accumulation.</p><p>In a report, Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned that interest rate risk is at an all-time high with the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects arising from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Subramanian stated that among the 20 market indicators tracked by the bank, most are statistically too expensive. Earnings growth is expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to inflation and the economic slowdown. Record interest rate risk means that even if interest rates rise only slightly, the stock market decline will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian pointed out that a growing number of Federal Reserve officials are urging a reduction in bond purchases, and implied market volatility has increased following the release of a strong jobs report.</p><p>In this context, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500 index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks that hastily raised their S&P 500 forecasts when the market was rising, Bank of America remains the only bearish, forecasting the 10-year yield to reach 1.9% by the end of the year, an increase of about 55 basis points from the current level, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall by about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BAC":"美国银行","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064016736,"gmtCreate":1652246411025,"gmtModify":1676535061513,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064016736","repostId":"612157298","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612157298,"gmtCreate":1652245632314,"gmtModify":1676533088961,"author":{"id":"3511237393001450","authorId":"3511237393001450","name":"资本邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1331a33968359a10e08ae7160541b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3511237393001450","idStr":"3511237393001450"},"themes":[],"title":"恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%， 位居恆生系列產品第一","htmlText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","listText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","text":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612157298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088066169,"gmtCreate":1650291432659,"gmtModify":1676534688131,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","listText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","text":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088066169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The company released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg) and consistently exceeding the previous guidance (RMB 4.25-4.35 billion).</p><p>Looking ahead to the third quarter, management has given revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, implying a growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus expectation for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion yuan falls within the guidance range, while in the past, the lower limit of the guidance would exceed market expectations. Clearly, Bilibili's third-quarter guidance is somewhat conservative.</p><p>The company reported an adjusted net loss of 857 million yuan in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating losses of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion yuan corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expectation is 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted and are similar to the actual loss rate). A closer look at the data reveals that the main expectation difference lies in operating expenses. (Specific reasons will be analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, regarding other key operating indicators, here is a quick overview of the gap between second-quarter performance and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) Overall, although Bilibili's revenue and user data in the second quarter clearly beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company provided some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance of the second quarter with securities firms (most of the market believed that the forward-looking guidance was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline). Subsequently, market expectations have been adjusted for some time based on this forward-looking guidance.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite outstanding, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>Games, on the other hand, suffered a severe setback. Although popular new games were released as scheduled, overall revenue declined instead of increasing. Bilibili is somewhat aware that its self-developed games are so-so, but its investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The overall user market is growing well, but the old problem has not shown any signs of improvement: the growth rate of daily active users (DAU) cannot keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline in overall user stickiness. The third quarter faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clean-up campaign, protection of minors, live streaming supervision, etc.), and user growth is expected to be lower than in previous summer peak seasons.</p><p>But Dolphin believes that in the long run, B's value goes far beyond that. Although the original intention was not to do tile ads, the Huahuo platform is currently a private domain advertising platform, and the revenue sharing for content creators accounts for the vast majority, indirectly taking a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Bilibili. In addition, Bilibili's current user activity (DAU) and the effectiveness of public domain advertising cannot be simply compared with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, Bilibili's most valuable asset is its Generation Z users, including content creators, who are constantly growing and becoming the main force of social consumption. These users have a very high level of recognition of Bilibili's value. Although its high-frequency activity is not as high as other platforms (which rely on algorithms to retain users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of content creators (UPs) among Bilibili users has been increasing, reflecting not only a long-term healthy community ecosystem, but also an increasing number of UGC content and participants, giving Bilibili's value-added services such as live streaming and tipping an advantage over traditional live streaming.</p><p>Judging from the stock price trend, Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies an overly pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili's future. Short-term stock price fluctuations are largely influenced by the regulatory environment, such as the regulation of cultural content during special years, the protection of minors, and the summer health campaign.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright regulation has also had a certain impact on Bilibili, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. The performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively get involved after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed analysis of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third-quarter guidance average.</p><p>(1) Revenue side</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg), while beat management guided the upper limit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Advertising revenue growth continued to be impressive across different business segments. Despite the release of highly popular new games, they still performed poorly, with contributions declining rapidly year-on-year, while live streaming and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>The company's gross profit margin declined by 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, mainly due to increased revenue sharing for new games, content investment (LPL World Finals and esports regular season live streaming rights), and increased live streaming revenue sharing (the revenue sharing for streamers has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the majority of Huahuo's revenue goes to content creators (UPs), Bilibili's advertising gross profit margin of around 50% is significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB 1.521 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 1.188 billion, mainly due to an increase in the marketing expense ratio. Many new games were released in the second quarter, resulting in significant marketing and promotion expenditures, an increase of 6 points compared to the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives continued to increase year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User base: Not sluggish during the off-season, but growth may face pressure in the third quarter under more regulation.</p><p>The number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, the number still grew by 38%, which was higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, if the growth rate is 20% of the previous year's reduction rate, the user growth rate for the whole year this year must exceed 30%, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old problems persist. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) has hit a two-year low. A platform's activity level will affect its future monetization potential, especially for advertisers who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself can have a certain impact on the platform's activity level, the longer the video, the lower the activity level. Judging from Questmobile's 30-day retention rate for different video apps. It basically follows the pattern of short videos > medium videos > long videos. The company previously stated that it is still in the stage of expanding its scale and going viral, and its long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's worth mentioning that Bilibili made two significant feature page redesigns in the second quarter to address user stickiness, and user stickiness is expected to improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the portrait Mode \"Story Mode\", which allows users to switch between videos by swiping up and down directly, similar to short videos, with the main purpose of increasing user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. Another feature is a major redesign that just launched during the summer, highlighting video creation functions to guide more users to become content creators.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, the number of paying users for tipping games, premium members, and virtual items (such as coins, live streaming gifts, etc.) this quarter was affected by seasonality. The total number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous quarter. However, the downward trend in the level of payment per user is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising Business: Prosperity remains strong, and commercialization is progressing steadily.</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili's advertising revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, far exceeding the market and Dolphin's expectations (150%). With the economic recovery and the rebound in advertising spending, as well as Bilibili's increasingly recognized brand influence, it will help continue to drive Bilibili's advertising prosperity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Currently, Bilibili, the Fireworks platform, only takes about 6% of its own commission and recognizes revenue based on the total transaction volume, thus lowering the overall gross profit margin of advertising.</p><p>Judging from Bilibili's unique platform character, the future contribution of the Fireworks platform will also be significantly enhanced. However, for Bilibili, the contribution of the Fireworks platform to its overall performance may not be a core indicator for Bilibili in the short term. Instead, it regards Fireworks as a major empowerment tool for maintaining the main ecosystem of content creators.</p><p>After all, on Bilibili, content creators and users interact frequently, and there is even some emotional connection between them. It can be seen as a series of private domain relationships. Therefore, content creators are also a core asset of Bilibili.</p><p>Dolphin Jun speculates that, in addition to needing to supplement the content supply, considering the strategic significance of Fireworks, this is also why Bilibili is constantly expanding the number of content creators.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still very difficult to play.</p><p>Bilibili's game revenue declined by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, which is quite poor compared to its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although popular new games that the market had high hopes for, such as \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\", \"Mobile Warrior\", and \"Sword Art Online\", were released in the second quarter, their revenue performance was very poor except for \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data sensors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Looking at the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the revenue of old games distributed through agents and \"Kan Gong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too quickly. (The black line represents the revenue stream for Genshin Impact, and the yellow line represents the revenue stream for Kan Gong.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps aware of its own capabilities, Bilibili invested in seven game companies in the first quarter and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, expected to benefit from video coin-operated revenue sharing and the popularity of live streaming.</p><p>The value-added business actually performed quite well in the second quarter, especially given the overall decline in the industry environment. It achieved revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, which was slightly lower than the expectations of major banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Bilibili's live streaming and value-added services include premium membership, video coin-in revenue sharing, and live streaming tipping revenue sharing. In terms of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy (review before broadcasting) faced by Japanese anime in April, which is expected to affect the revenue of large members, Dolphin Jun guesses that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live streaming growth and value-added services should be mainly due to the increase in coin sharing and the increase in live streaming popularity.</p><p>This is different from traditional live streaming, as Bilibili's live streaming is still in a stage of rapid penetration and growth.</p><p>6. E-commerce and other businesses: Although their proportion is small, their momentum is even stronger.</p><p>E-commerce continued its high growth, nearly doubling in the second quarter. However, considering that this revenue (membership purchases) is mainly driven by the consumption of core anime users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the ACG (Anime, Comics, and Games) community among Generation Z users, its future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggests that investors pay appropriate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Bilibili, which has been running wildly, about to fall to earth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The company released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg) and consistently exceeding the previous guidance (RMB 4.25-4.35 billion).</p><p>Looking ahead to the third quarter, management has given revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, implying a growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus expectation for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion yuan falls within the guidance range, while in the past, the lower limit of the guidance would exceed market expectations. Clearly, Bilibili's third-quarter guidance is somewhat conservative.</p><p>The company reported an adjusted net loss of 857 million yuan in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating losses of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion yuan corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expectation is 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted and are similar to the actual loss rate). A closer look at the data reveals that the main expectation difference lies in operating expenses. (Specific reasons will be analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, regarding other key operating indicators, here is a quick overview of the gap between second-quarter performance and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) Overall, although Bilibili's revenue and user data in the second quarter clearly beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company provided some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance of the second quarter with securities firms (most of the market believed that the forward-looking guidance was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline). Subsequently, market expectations have been adjusted for some time based on this forward-looking guidance.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite outstanding, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>Games, on the other hand, suffered a severe setback. Although popular new games were released as scheduled, overall revenue declined instead of increasing. Bilibili is somewhat aware that its self-developed games are so-so, but its investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The overall user market is growing well, but the old problem has not shown any signs of improvement: the growth rate of daily active users (DAU) cannot keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline in overall user stickiness. The third quarter faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clean-up campaign, protection of minors, live streaming supervision, etc.), and user growth is expected to be lower than in previous summer peak seasons.</p><p>But Dolphin believes that in the long run, B's value goes far beyond that. Although the original intention was not to do tile ads, the Huahuo platform is currently a private domain advertising platform, and the revenue sharing for content creators accounts for the vast majority, indirectly taking a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Bilibili. In addition, Bilibili's current user activity (DAU) and the effectiveness of public domain advertising cannot be simply compared with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, Bilibili's most valuable asset is its Generation Z users, including content creators, who are constantly growing and becoming the main force of social consumption. These users have a very high level of recognition of Bilibili's value. Although its high-frequency activity is not as high as other platforms (which rely on algorithms to retain users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of content creators (UPs) among Bilibili users has been increasing, reflecting not only a long-term healthy community ecosystem, but also an increasing number of UGC content and participants, giving Bilibili's value-added services such as live streaming and tipping an advantage over traditional live streaming.</p><p>Judging from the stock price trend, Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies an overly pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili's future. Short-term stock price fluctuations are largely influenced by the regulatory environment, such as the regulation of cultural content during special years, the protection of minors, and the summer health campaign.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright regulation has also had a certain impact on Bilibili, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. The performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively get involved after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed analysis of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third-quarter guidance average.</p><p>(1) Revenue side</p><p>Bilibili achieved net revenue of RMB 4.5 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding the market consensus expectation of RMB 4.3 billion (Bloomberg), while beat management guided the upper limit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Advertising revenue growth continued to be impressive across different business segments. Despite the release of highly popular new games, they still performed poorly, with contributions declining rapidly year-on-year, while live streaming and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>The company's gross profit margin declined by 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, mainly due to increased revenue sharing for new games, content investment (LPL World Finals and esports regular season live streaming rights), and increased live streaming revenue sharing (the revenue sharing for streamers has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the majority of Huahuo's revenue goes to content creators (UPs), Bilibili's advertising gross profit margin of around 50% is significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB 1.521 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 1.188 billion, mainly due to an increase in the marketing expense ratio. Many new games were released in the second quarter, resulting in significant marketing and promotion expenditures, an increase of 6 points compared to the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives continued to increase year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User base: Not sluggish during the off-season, but growth may face pressure in the third quarter under more regulation.</p><p>The number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, the number still grew by 38%, which was higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, if the growth rate is 20% of the previous year's reduction rate, the user growth rate for the whole year this year must exceed 30%, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old problems persist. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) has hit a two-year low. A platform's activity level will affect its future monetization potential, especially for advertisers who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself can have a certain impact on the platform's activity level, the longer the video, the lower the activity level. Judging from Questmobile's 30-day retention rate for different video apps. It basically follows the pattern of short videos > medium videos > long videos. The company previously stated that it is still in the stage of expanding its scale and going viral, and its long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's worth mentioning that Bilibili made two significant feature page redesigns in the second quarter to address user stickiness, and user stickiness is expected to improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the portrait Mode \"Story Mode\", which allows users to switch between videos by swiping up and down directly, similar to short videos, with the main purpose of increasing user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. Another feature is a major redesign that just launched during the summer, highlighting video creation functions to guide more users to become content creators.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, the number of paying users for tipping games, premium members, and virtual items (such as coins, live streaming gifts, etc.) this quarter was affected by seasonality. The total number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous quarter. However, the downward trend in the level of payment per user is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising Business: Prosperity remains strong, and commercialization is progressing steadily.</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili's advertising revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, far exceeding the market and Dolphin's expectations (150%). With the economic recovery and the rebound in advertising spending, as well as Bilibili's increasingly recognized brand influence, it will help continue to drive Bilibili's advertising prosperity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Currently, Bilibili, the Fireworks platform, only takes about 6% of its own commission and recognizes revenue based on the total transaction volume, thus lowering the overall gross profit margin of advertising.</p><p>Judging from Bilibili's unique platform character, the future contribution of the Fireworks platform will also be significantly enhanced. However, for Bilibili, the contribution of the Fireworks platform to its overall performance may not be a core indicator for Bilibili in the short term. Instead, it regards Fireworks as a major empowerment tool for maintaining the main ecosystem of content creators.</p><p>After all, on Bilibili, content creators and users interact frequently, and there is even some emotional connection between them. It can be seen as a series of private domain relationships. Therefore, content creators are also a core asset of Bilibili.</p><p>Dolphin Jun speculates that, in addition to needing to supplement the content supply, considering the strategic significance of Fireworks, this is also why Bilibili is constantly expanding the number of content creators.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still very difficult to play.</p><p>Bilibili's game revenue declined by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, which is quite poor compared to its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although popular new games that the market had high hopes for, such as \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\", \"Mobile Warrior\", and \"Sword Art Online\", were released in the second quarter, their revenue performance was very poor except for \"Kangong Cavalry Champion Sword\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data sensors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Looking at the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the revenue of old games distributed through agents and \"Kan Gong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too quickly. (The black line represents the revenue stream for Genshin Impact, and the yellow line represents the revenue stream for Kan Gong.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps aware of its own capabilities, Bilibili invested in seven game companies in the first quarter and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, expected to benefit from video coin-operated revenue sharing and the popularity of live streaming.</p><p>The value-added business actually performed quite well in the second quarter, especially given the overall decline in the industry environment. It achieved revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, which was slightly lower than the expectations of major banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Bilibili's live streaming and value-added services include premium membership, video coin-in revenue sharing, and live streaming tipping revenue sharing. In terms of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy (review before broadcasting) faced by Japanese anime in April, which is expected to affect the revenue of large members, Dolphin Jun guesses that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live streaming growth and value-added services should be mainly due to the increase in coin sharing and the increase in live streaming popularity.</p><p>This is different from traditional live streaming, as Bilibili's live streaming is still in a stage of rapid penetration and growth.</p><p>6. E-commerce and other businesses: Although their proportion is small, their momentum is even stronger.</p><p>E-commerce continued its high growth, nearly doubling in the second quarter. However, considering that this revenue (membership purchases) is mainly driven by the consumption of core anime users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the ACG (Anime, Comics, and Games) community among Generation Z users, its future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggests that investors pay appropriate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BILI":0.9,"09626":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">modern dentistry</a>The stock rose more than 30% at one point during trading and is currently trading at HK$8.89, a two-month high, with a market capitalization of HK$8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit warning last night, expecting unaudited net profit for the first half of this year to be between RMB 230 million and RMB 245 million, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 140 million in the same period last year. The announcement stated that the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to release its results at the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental rose more than 30% at one point, expecting to turn a profit in the first half of the year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">modern dentistry</a>The stock rose more than 30% at one point during trading and is currently trading at HK$8.89, a two-month high, with a market capitalization of HK$8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit warning last night, expecting unaudited net profit for the first half of this year to be between RMB 230 million and RMB 245 million, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 140 million in the same period last year. The announcement stated that the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to release its results at the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping's team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We have proposed a widely circulated analytical framework in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This article looks at global housing price trends, examining the factors and patterns driving housing price trends in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b></p><p><b>Over the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have risen by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b>First, housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%. Secondly, 14 economies, including Ireland and Australia, have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and average annual growth of 5.5%-8%. Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than five times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of over 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by 22%. However, the increases in major Asian countries have been lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The largest increases in housing prices occurred in metropolitan areas where a country's population flowed in.</b>London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</p><p><b>Our call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) is urgent. We should accelerate the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market, with the linking of people and land, control of currency and property tax as the core, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a window of opportunity in the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Differences in housing price increases across different economies: economic growth, population changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 Significant differences in housing price trends across 23 economies over the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, housing prices in four economies—South Africa, New Zealand, Spain, and the United Kingdom—have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>South Africa and New Zealand have seen cumulative house price increases of 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies. UK house prices have risen 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased by 60.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-8%: Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States, and Belgium.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9% for both countries. Hong Kong property prices rose 19.9 times from Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%. From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia rose 5.1 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%. The other 10 countries saw increases ranging from 15 to 40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% to 7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, five economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of less than five times and average annual growth of less than 4%: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany, and Japan.</b>Thailand's stock price increased 1.8 times from Q1 1991 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, South Korean housing prices rose 3.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the correlation between global housing price trends is gradually increasing.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, house prices in Japan and South Korea fell in the early 1990s, house prices in Southeast Asia fell in 1997, and the global real estate market fell in 2007.<b>Looking at housing price trends over the past 51 years, the 23 economies can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies that have seen housing prices rise continuously with minor adjustments during this period: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any of the aforementioned four countries has not exceeded 9% in any downward cycle. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada did not experience two consecutive years of decline; France experienced three significant adjustments, from 1992 to 1995, from 2008 to 2009, and from 2011 to 2015, but the cumulative decline in each of the three periods never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand, experienced a sharp decline in housing prices but later rose above their previous highs.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% between 1979 and 1982 and by more than 19% between 2008 and 2013; house prices in South Africa fell by 11% between 1984 and 1986; house prices in Finland plummeted by 37% between 1990 and 1992; house prices in Switzerland plummeted by 22% between 1990 and 1998; house prices in Malaysia and Thailand both plummeted by more than 11% between 1997 and 1998 and 1998, respectively; house prices in Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% between 1998 and 2003; house prices in the United States plummeted by more than 30% between 2007 and 2011; and house prices in the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% between 1990 and 1992 and by more than 13% between 2008 and 2009. Housing prices in the aforementioned economies continued to rise after a sharp decline and have now surpassed their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies whose housing bubbles burst in the early stages and are still below their peak: Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.</b>Although the eras and countries differ, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has invariably been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates, while the collapse of real estate bubbles has always been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years, but in 2020, housing prices in these four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8%, and 83.2% of the peak, respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with a basically stable housing price trend and a relatively small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three significant upward cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times between 1971 and 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% between 1987 and 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% between 2009 and Q1 2021. The cumulative decline has never exceeded 10% in any downward cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply, and the housing system.</b></p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including first-time homebuyers and those seeking to improve their homes) and financial attributes (investment and speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, housing prices depend not only on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely on the money supply. Based on the experience of global real estate market operation, under the impact of conflicts, plagues, natural disasters, and economic and financial crises, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time along with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rates of local currency housing prices and local currency nominal GDP growth rates in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively, which are relatively close, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52.</b>If Thailand and Malaysia are excluded, the correlation coefficient for 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient for 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be broken down into per capita constant GDP, population, and GDP deflation index. Coupled with the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern, these four factors can better explain the long-term differences in housing price trends in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought about by economic growth. GDP growth at constant prices reflects real economic growth after excluding prices. GDP growth per capita at constant prices in local currency means that residents' real purchasing power has increased and housing demand has increased.</b>From 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices in 23 economies in Q1 was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, while the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (for some economies, data calculations began when housing price data was available; for Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, it began in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991, respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP in constant currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, while Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand have average annual growth rates of over 2.5%, while most other economies have grown below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Demographic effects caused by changes in the total population and its structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth and cross-border population movement. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, with the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-to-high-income, low-to-middle-income, and low-income economies being 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6, respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-to-high-income economies are no longer sufficient to compensate for generational population change. However, high-income economies have attracted large cross-border population inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population into high-income economies reached 140 million, with 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% coming from middle-to-high, middle-to-low, and low-income economies, respectively. The living standards of people in middle- and high-income economies are close to those in high-income economies, and their motivation to migrate is not strong; Low-income economies have strong motivation for population migration, but they find it difficult to bear the costs of migration; Low- and middle-income economies have strong motivation for population migration and can afford the costs of migration. According to UN statistics, Germany's population decreased by approximately 2.3 million between 2004 and 2011, but later returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to decline in 2009, and Italy's population began to decline in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in population structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in population structure, such as the main homebuyers aged 20-50 and household size, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, global household size is trending towards smaller sizes due to factors such as delayed marriage age, increased unmarried and divorce rates, low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, population aging, and population mobility, which has increased housing demand to some extent. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States decreased from 3.33 to 2.54, and in Japan from 4.14 to 2.39. In addition, from 1980 to 2015, the number of people in South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73. Regarding the main home buyers, the US population aged 20-49 continues to grow, while Japan, South Korea, and the UK peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, population growth affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth for many economies that have caught up with the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often shifts to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) The monetary illusion caused by the money supply.</b>International experience shows that most countries experience varying degrees of excessive money supply during economic development, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a higher growth rate of broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual GDP deflation index of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%. This is not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also fluctuates in a relatively consistent manner. For example, from 1970 to Q1 2021, South Africa's broad money supply increased by 532.5 times, while South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times despite a significant excess of money supply, while real GDP increased by only 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. The U.S. broad money supply increased 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased 19.0 times, real GDP increased 2.8 times, the GDP deflator increased 5.2 times, and house prices increased 13 times. However, excessive money supply can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, may even trigger economic crises, such as the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currencies have increased more than in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, from 2001 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies, including India and Mexico, was 13.7%, significantly higher than the 5.3% growth rate in six representative developed economies, including the UK, the US, and Japan. According to BIS statistics, from 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of house prices in emerging economies was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of 3.8% in developed economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>The housing system guides a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices in the long term and support the development of the real economy, while a bad housing system may cause housing prices to rise and fall sharply, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residence-oriented housing system, which has three pillars: a neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing finance system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold homes for the long term and combats speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and encourages long-term rentals. Singapore currently has a dual supply system dominated by HDB flats and supplemented by private homes. The supply structure presents a tiered distribution of \"low-rent housing - affordable housing - improved HDB flats - private homes\". The homeownership rate exceeds 90%, basically achieving housing for everyone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.3 There is a significant difference between the increase in US dollar house prices and the increase in local currency house prices.</b></p><p><b>In US dollar terms, housing price increases in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 2021, and there was a certain correlation between US dollar housing price increases and nominal GDP growth in US dollars. If an economy's money supply is more severe than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency housing prices does not necessarily mean a sharp rise in US dollar housing prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>Based on the increase in US dollar house prices, they can be roughly divided into four categories: First, those with a cumulative increase of more than 50 times and an average annual growth of more than 8%, with only New Zealand having one. Secondly, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth is 7%-7.5%, including three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy, and Japan. Fourth, five economies have a cumulative increase of less than 9 times and an average annual growth of less than 5%: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand, and South Korea. Compared to the increase in local currency house prices, South Africa saw the largest change, with local currency house prices increasing by as much as 110.5 times from 1970 to Q1 2021, but US dollar house prices increasing by only 3.8 times. In addition, Swiss local currency house prices increased by only 4.8 times, but US dollar house prices reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices narrowed to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the perspective of correlation coefficients,</b>The correlation coefficient between dollar house price growth and dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is a weak correlation. However, if we exclude South Korea, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 75.3 times and dollar house prices are only 0.7 times higher, and Ireland, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 99.6 times and dollar house prices are only 28.7 times higher, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies reaches 0.77. This indicates that, from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between dollar-denominated house price growth and dollar-denominated nominal GDP growth in an economy is largely true. The differences in the long-term trend of dollar house prices in different economies can be broken down by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the factor of excessive money supply of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices rose significantly during the pandemic.</b></p><p><b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of more than 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, Turkish house prices rose by 32%, ranking first. New Zealand followed closely behind, rising 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. Meanwhile, price increases in major Asian countries were lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Japan followed closely behind, rising 5.7%; Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to factors such as the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the pandemic, central banks around the world have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, which has reached the people through enterprise relief funds, unemployment benefits and other means. Meanwhile, under loose monetary policy, mortgage rates have decreased. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing policies has made people eager to find assets to preserve value, and real estate, which has the attributes of preserving and increasing value, has become the first choice for investment. 2) From a demand perspective, the pent-up demand for improvements during the pandemic was released after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events like the pandemic have led more and more investors to try to reduce risk by diversifying their asset allocation, making owning a second home a choice for more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From a supply perspective, the loose monetary policy has led to a general rise in asset prices, increased raw material prices, and increased construction costs. At the same time, the pandemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and thus driving up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. Which region within a country has seen the largest increase in housing prices: metropolitan areas with population inflows?</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases.</b></p><p>London has three areas: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London, also known as the City of London, is very small in area. In a general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, which includes 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the United Kingdom. The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and its surrounding areas. Due to urban planning issues and other problems that have led to prominent problems in large cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London decreased from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and later rebounded to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of the economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, and its proportion increased from 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Over the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in the UK and England (71 and 81 times, respectively) and the UK's nominal GDP increase (51 times).</b>According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from £4,400 to £500,000, in England from £3,400 to £275,000, and nationwide from £3,600 to £256,000. House prices in London increased 113 times, 71 times higher than the national average and 81 times higher than in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the UK's nominal GDP increased 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and house price increases significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the house price increases in Greater London were very similar to those in England and the UK before 1994, but the volatility increased significantly after 1995, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England, and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times, and 14.6 times respectively, with relatively small differences. However, from then until March 2018, the price increases varied significantly, reaching 5.3 times, 3.5 times, and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England, and the UK fell by 16.6%, 15.0%, and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009, respectively. Subsequently, against the backdrop of monetary stimulus for quantitative easing, housing prices gradually rebounded, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5%, and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Looking within the London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, while the increases in surrounding areas are all below 6.0%.</b>From January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London rose 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2, and 5.4 times, respectively. The house price increase in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. Furthermore, house prices in Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, rose only 4.6 times during that period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>Looking within Greater London, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times in the past 26 years, while house prices in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from £78,300 per unit to £594,500 per unit, a 7.6-fold increase. House prices in Outer London rose 6.2 times from £73,000 to £451,000. Currently, the most expensive homes in London are in Kensington and Chelsea (£1.2272 million per unit), followed by the City of Westminster (£936,800 per unit), representing increases of 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively compared to January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding those in surrounding areas.</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: the City of Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including the three suburban departments), and the Paris Region (including the four outer departments, also known as \"Île-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761, and 11,001 square kilometers respectively. The Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France's land area. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has long been concentrated in Paris and its surrounding areas. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, its population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and its economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, in order to control the population and address the problems of large cities, Paris experienced a long period of decline, from 2.89 million to 2.13 million from 1931 to 1999, before rebounding to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, housing prices in Paris have increased 43.7 times, significantly exceeding the average increase in French housing prices (26.6 times) and the increase in French nominal GDP (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2%, and 6.4%, respectively.</b>Prior to this, between 1945 and 1965, influenced by post-war reconstruction, the baby boom, and significant excess money supply, housing prices in Paris and France surged 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Viewed in stages,</b>The trend of housing prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, housing prices rose rapidly. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6%, respectively. 2) 1992-1997, a period of decline in housing prices. Due to rampant real estate speculation and excessive price increases in Paris around 1985-1990 (with increases exceeding 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), Parisian housing prices began to fall sharply. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of -6.1%, -0.4%, and 3.8%, respectively. By the end of 1997, Parisian house prices had plummeted to 69% of their 1991 levels. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0%, respectively. Among them, Paris house prices fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, Paris house prices experienced a significant increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Paris saw the highest increase in housing prices in the Paris region. From Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Paris increased by more than 3.5 times, significantly higher than those in the three suburban departments and the four outer suburban departments.</b>Because Paris has a relatively small land area (105 square kilometers), slightly larger than the combined area of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we will no longer analyze housing prices within Paris. Instead, we will take Paris as the core area of the Paris region and analyze the differences in housing price trends between it and other areas of the Paris region. According to data from the French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times increase in the three near-suburban departments and the 1.6 times increase in the four far-suburban departments. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis, and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times, and 2.4 times, respectively. House prices in the four outlying departments of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne, and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.5 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City home prices have increased ninefold in 46 years, with Queens performing better.</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical District, etc. New York City covers an area of 789 square kilometers and had a population of 8.55 million in 2015. The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015. The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. In terms of population, due to the shift of the US economic center to the West Coast and South Coast, although the population of the New York area continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was far less than that of the Los Angeles area, which led to a significant decline in the population share of the New York area. During this period, due to suburbanization and the decline of manufacturing, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million between 1950 and 1980. Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rebounded to 8.55 million in 2015, but decreased slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>Over the past 46 years, New York City home prices have increased more than ninefold, higher than the U.S. average, but lower than the price increases in the surrounding areas of New York City and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, home prices in the United States, New York City, the New York-Jersey-White Plains area (one of the New York metropolitan areas) (1976-Q1 2021), and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan areas) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. While the price increase in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was not as high as that in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area, it was still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that New York City housing prices lagged behind U.S. nominal GDP and M2 during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area outpaced U.S. nominal GDP, approaching M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the New York metropolitan area, housing prices in the New York subdivision have more than quadrupled in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions of the New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains division, the New York metropolitan area also includes three divisions: Nassau County-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The housing price trends in the four major districts were basically the same. Among them, the Nassau County–Suffolk County district saw a 4.3-fold increase from 1986 to Q1 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first. The New York-Jersey City-White Plains area saw a 4.1-fold increase, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, ranking second. The Newark subdivision and the Dutchess County-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) increased by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within New York City, housing prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, higher than in New York City.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, home prices in Manhattan, New York City, increased 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%. Home prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, home prices in New York City and the New York borough increased 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities saw a 210-fold increase in prices over 36 years.</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Ward and Tokyo Metropolitan Area, which includes Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2,188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. The Tokyo metropolitan area accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area and had a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's total. Currently, the region's GDP accounts for about one-third of Japan's total.</p><p>Japan's population movement can be divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population was basically concentrated in the three poles of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya areas. From 1884 to 1973, excluding the impact of war, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% of the total population. The population of the Osaka area increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% of the total population. The population of the Nagoya area increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% of the total population. Subsequently, the population concentration shifted to the Tokyo metropolitan area, while the inflow and outflow of population in the Nagoya metropolitan area were basically balanced, and the Osaka metropolitan area experienced a long-term net outflow. By 2016, the populations of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas were 36.29 million, 18.31 million, and 11.34 million, respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4%, and 8.9% of the total population. During this period, the population growth of the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas mainly stemmed from natural growth. Tokyo's population growth stagnated between 1970 and 1997, mainly due to industrial relocation and population migration from the Tokyo metropolitan area. However, the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan wards and the three prefectures within the Tokyo metropolitan area grew significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices continued to rise except for an adjustment in 1975, increasing 82 times between 1955 and 1991, exceeding the 55 times nominal GDP growth rate during that period. Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, while in non-core cities they rose 78 times. Looking at the stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in Japan's six core cities—Tokyo Ward, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe—increased 40.6 times, averaging 21.7% annually, while other cities increased 29.6 times, averaging 19.7% annually. During the same period, nominal GDP increased 15 times, averaging 15.7% annually. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in the six core cities rose 4.5 times, averaging 11.2% per year, while other cities rose 1.7 times, averaging 6.4% per year. During the same period, nominal GDP rose 2.2 times, averaging 7.5% per year.</p><p>Japanese housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main homebuyers. However, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s due to factors such as the rapid rise in the later stages, a sharp decline in the birth rate, the peak of the main homebuyers in the 1990s, and the Japanese government's erroneous response. After that, Japanese land prices continued to adjust until 2005, and in 2017, Japanese land prices were only 47.1% of their peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After a short-term rise from 2006 to 2008, they fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rebound in 2013 and have since reached 35.3% of the peak in 1991. Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The land price trend in the Tokyo area is basically the same as that in Japan as a whole, but its peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that in Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual increase of 11.1%. The decline continued until 2005, when it rebounded ahead of the rest of the country in 2014.</b>Housing prices in the Tokyo and Osaka areas peaked in 1990, while land prices in the Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992, respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0%. Especially before the housing bubble burst, land prices in the Tokyo area surged 0.95 times between 1987 and 1988, and in the Osaka area surged 1.6 times between 1988 and 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, land prices in the Tokyo area fell sharply until 2005. They began to rebound in 2006-2008, but were adjusted again in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and began to rebound again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of their peak values, respectively. The reason why land prices in the Osaka area have adjusted the most drastically is because they saw the largest increase before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>Land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988 and doubled in the five years prior to peaking. At the same time, they adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest within the Tokyo metropolitan area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and its wards peaked in 1988, two years earlier than in the Tokyo metropolitan area and three years earlier than in Japan as a whole. In the five years before the peak, housing prices in Tokyo's wards doubled, 1.8 times higher than in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than in the Tokyo metropolitan area. After peaking, housing prices in Tokyo and its wards continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rebound in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo wards rose by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in non-wards of Tokyo remained basically flat, while housing prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell by 1.7% cumulatively. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, its wards, and non-metropolitan wards were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7%, and 38.8% of their peak values, respectively, very close to the 40.7% in the Tokyo metropolitan area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Conclusion: Over the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing presses, driving new housing reforms.</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, population changes, money supply, and housing system. The first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive money supply can lead to a surge in domestic local currency housing prices, but not necessarily a surge in US dollar housing prices, meaning they may not have investment value from a global perspective. Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflationary properties and can partially share in the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies exceeded their respective CPI growth rates to varying degrees. In the UK, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, the average annual growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was still over 3%, while in Japan and Germany, the growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was close to 0. Compared to nominal GDP growth in local currencies, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed housing prices in Q1 of 1970-2021. This means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share in the dividends of economic growth.</p><p><b>In the long run, excessive global money supply is a common phenomenon. Broad money growth is often higher than nominal GDP growth, and few assets can outperform the money printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, UK house prices grew at an average annual rate of 5.6% from 1987 to 2020. Although this was higher than the average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money supply of 7.1%. From 1960 to 2020, U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5%, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at average annual rates of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was 5.8%, lower than the 6.8% growth rate of M2 during the same period and the same as the 5.8% growth rate of GDP. In China, the broad money supply M2 has grown at an average annual rate of 15% over the past forty years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly built housing nationwide has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the M2 growth rate during the same period. Meanwhile, housing prices in first-tier cities have basically kept pace with the M2 growth rate.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have significant investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies experience severe excessive money supply and significant housing price increases. However, from a global asset allocation perspective, investors focus on the increase in US dollar housing prices, which excludes exchange rate changes caused by relative excessive money supply. The increase in US dollar housing prices is mainly related to the growth of nominal US dollar GDP and can be broken down into factors such as economic growth, population changes, and housing systems. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may experience a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but attention should be paid to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a new housing system in China that is residence-oriented.</b>The development of China's real estate market over the past two decades has shown that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term supply and demand imbalance, and deepening housing system reform is the foundation for achieving stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, we will reform the \"people-land linkage\" and optimize land supply.</b>The current \"people-land linkage\" system links the number of rural migrants to the supply of construction land, which cannot solve the contradiction between population inflow and housing supply shortages in hot cities. In the future, it is necessary to promote the linking of new permanent residents to land supply and the balance between cross-provincial arable land occupation and compensation to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land. For example, the sale of land quotas in the Northeast and West regions can effectively solve the current problem of a large waste of land quotas in the Northeast and West. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory reduction cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply model.</p><p><b>Second, maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate finance policy.</b>Implement long-term and stable housing credit financial policies to stabilize homebuyers' expectations, support first-time homebuyers and those seeking to upgrade their homes, and curb speculative demand. Support real estate companies' reasonable financing needs, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>Third, we will transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply entities.</b>Currently, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over rental, and a housing system with diverse supply entities has not yet been established. In the future, the main suppliers will shift from developers to multiple suppliers, including the government, developers, leasing intermediaries, and long-term rental companies. The supply form will also shift from primarily commercial housing to multiple categories such as commercial housing, rental housing, and shared ownership housing. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be tailored to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be especially wary of blindly following trends.</p><p><b>Fourth, we will steadily promote the property tax pilot program.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and transaction taxes in the era of existing housing stock, the introduction of a property tax is an inevitable trend. International experience shows that property tax is typically regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue in mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization, and phased progress\". \"Legislation first\" means enacting legislation before implementing taxes; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing local governments to conduct pilot programs tailored to local conditions, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. According to international experience, property tax is a local main tax. \"Distributed progress\" is a positive and steady approach, and efforts should be made to ensure that the plan is mature and to guide social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: Global Housing Price Trends in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping's team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We have proposed a widely circulated analytical framework in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This article looks at global housing price trends, examining the factors and patterns driving housing price trends in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b></p><p><b>Over the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have risen by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b>First, housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%. Secondly, 14 economies, including Ireland and Australia, have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and average annual growth of 5.5%-8%. Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than five times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of over 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by 22%. However, the increases in major Asian countries have been lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The largest increases in housing prices occurred in metropolitan areas where a country's population flowed in.</b>London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</p><p><b>Our call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) is urgent. We should accelerate the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market, with the linking of people and land, control of currency and property tax as the core, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a window of opportunity in the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Differences in housing price increases across different economies: economic growth, population changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 Significant differences in housing price trends across 23 economies over the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. Based on the magnitude of the price increase, housing prices can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, housing prices in four economies—South Africa, New Zealand, Spain, and the United Kingdom—have increased by more than 60 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>South Africa and New Zealand have seen cumulative house price increases of 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies. UK house prices have risen 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased by 60.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of 5-50 times and an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-8%: Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States, and Belgium.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9% for both countries. Hong Kong property prices rose 19.9 times from Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%. From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia rose 5.1 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%. The other 10 countries saw increases ranging from 15 to 40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% to 7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, five economies have seen cumulative housing price increases of less than five times and average annual growth of less than 4%: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany, and Japan.</b>Thailand's stock price increased 1.8 times from Q1 1991 to Q1 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, South Korean housing prices rose 3.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the correlation between global housing price trends is gradually increasing.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, house prices in Japan and South Korea fell in the early 1990s, house prices in Southeast Asia fell in 1997, and the global real estate market fell in 2007.<b>Looking at housing price trends over the past 51 years, the 23 economies can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies that have seen housing prices rise continuously with minor adjustments during this period: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any of the aforementioned four countries has not exceeded 9% in any downward cycle. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada did not experience two consecutive years of decline; France experienced three significant adjustments, from 1992 to 1995, from 2008 to 2009, and from 2011 to 2015, but the cumulative decline in each of the three periods never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Secondly, 14 economies, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand, experienced a sharp decline in housing prices but later rose above their previous highs.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% between 1979 and 1982 and by more than 19% between 2008 and 2013; house prices in South Africa fell by 11% between 1984 and 1986; house prices in Finland plummeted by 37% between 1990 and 1992; house prices in Switzerland plummeted by 22% between 1990 and 1998; house prices in Malaysia and Thailand both plummeted by more than 11% between 1997 and 1998 and 1998, respectively; house prices in Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% between 1998 and 2003; house prices in the United States plummeted by more than 30% between 2007 and 2011; and house prices in the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% between 1990 and 1992 and by more than 13% between 2008 and 2009. Housing prices in the aforementioned economies continued to rise after a sharp decline and have now surpassed their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies whose housing bubbles burst in the early stages and are still below their peak: Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.</b>Although the eras and countries differ, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has invariably been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates, while the collapse of real estate bubbles has always been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years, but in 2020, housing prices in these four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8%, and 83.2% of the peak, respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with a basically stable housing price trend and a relatively small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three significant upward cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times between 1971 and 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% between 1987 and 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% between 2009 and Q1 2021. The cumulative decline has never exceeded 10% in any downward cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply, and the housing system.</b></p><p><b>The differences in the long-term trends of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought about by economic growth, the demographic effect caused by changes in the total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought about by the money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including first-time homebuyers and those seeking to improve their homes) and financial attributes (investment and speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, housing prices depend not only on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely on the money supply. Based on the experience of global real estate market operation, under the impact of conflicts, plagues, natural disasters, and economic and financial crises, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time along with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rates of local currency housing prices and local currency nominal GDP growth rates in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively, which are relatively close, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52.</b>If Thailand and Malaysia are excluded, the correlation coefficient for 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient for 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be broken down into per capita constant GDP, population, and GDP deflation index. Coupled with the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern, these four factors can better explain the long-term differences in housing price trends in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought about by economic growth. GDP growth at constant prices reflects real economic growth after excluding prices. GDP growth per capita at constant prices in local currency means that residents' real purchasing power has increased and housing demand has increased.</b>From 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices in 23 economies in Q1 was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, while the average annual growth rate at constant local currency prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (for some economies, data calculations began when housing price data was available; for Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, it began in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991, respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP in constant currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, while Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand have average annual growth rates of over 2.5%, while most other economies have grown below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Demographic effects caused by changes in the total population and its structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth and cross-border population movement. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, with the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-to-high-income, low-to-middle-income, and low-income economies being 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6, respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-to-high-income economies are no longer sufficient to compensate for generational population change. However, high-income economies have attracted large cross-border population inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population into high-income economies reached 140 million, with 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% coming from middle-to-high, middle-to-low, and low-income economies, respectively. The living standards of people in middle- and high-income economies are close to those in high-income economies, and their motivation to migrate is not strong; Low-income economies have strong motivation for population migration, but they find it difficult to bear the costs of migration; Low- and middle-income economies have strong motivation for population migration and can afford the costs of migration. According to UN statistics, Germany's population decreased by approximately 2.3 million between 2004 and 2011, but later returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to decline in 2009, and Italy's population began to decline in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in population structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in population structure, such as the main homebuyers aged 20-50 and household size, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, global household size is trending towards smaller sizes due to factors such as delayed marriage age, increased unmarried and divorce rates, low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, population aging, and population mobility, which has increased housing demand to some extent. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States decreased from 3.33 to 2.54, and in Japan from 4.14 to 2.39. In addition, from 1980 to 2015, the number of people in South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73. Regarding the main home buyers, the US population aged 20-49 continues to grow, while Japan, South Korea, and the UK peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, population growth affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth for many economies that have caught up with the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often shifts to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) The monetary illusion caused by the money supply.</b>International experience shows that most countries experience varying degrees of excessive money supply during economic development, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a higher growth rate of broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual GDP deflation index of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%. This is not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also fluctuates in a relatively consistent manner. For example, from 1970 to Q1 2021, South Africa's broad money supply increased by 532.5 times, while South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times despite a significant excess of money supply, while real GDP increased by only 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. The U.S. broad money supply increased 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased 19.0 times, real GDP increased 2.8 times, the GDP deflator increased 5.2 times, and house prices increased 13 times. However, excessive money supply can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, may even trigger economic crises, such as the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currencies have increased more than in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, from 2001 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies, including India and Mexico, was 13.7%, significantly higher than the 5.3% growth rate in six representative developed economies, including the UK, the US, and Japan. According to BIS statistics, from 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of house prices in emerging economies was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of 3.8% in developed economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>The housing system guides a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices in the long term and support the development of the real economy, while a bad housing system may cause housing prices to rise and fall sharply, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residence-oriented housing system, which has three pillars: a neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing finance system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold homes for the long term and combats speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and encourages long-term rentals. Singapore currently has a dual supply system dominated by HDB flats and supplemented by private homes. The supply structure presents a tiered distribution of \"low-rent housing - affordable housing - improved HDB flats - private homes\". The homeownership rate exceeds 90%, basically achieving housing for everyone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.3 There is a significant difference between the increase in US dollar house prices and the increase in local currency house prices.</b></p><p><b>In US dollar terms, housing price increases in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 2021, and there was a certain correlation between US dollar housing price increases and nominal GDP growth in US dollars. If an economy's money supply is more severe than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency housing prices does not necessarily mean a sharp rise in US dollar housing prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>Based on the increase in US dollar house prices, they can be roughly divided into four categories: First, those with a cumulative increase of more than 50 times and an average annual growth of more than 8%, with only New Zealand having one. Secondly, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth is 7%-7.5%, including three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy, and Japan. Fourth, five economies have a cumulative increase of less than 9 times and an average annual growth of less than 5%: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand, and South Korea. Compared to the increase in local currency house prices, South Africa saw the largest change, with local currency house prices increasing by as much as 110.5 times from 1970 to Q1 2021, but US dollar house prices increasing by only 3.8 times. In addition, Swiss local currency house prices increased by only 4.8 times, but US dollar house prices reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices narrowed to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the perspective of correlation coefficients,</b>The correlation coefficient between dollar house price growth and dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is a weak correlation. However, if we exclude South Korea, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 75.3 times and dollar house prices are only 0.7 times higher, and Ireland, where dollar nominal GDP growth is 99.6 times and dollar house prices are only 28.7 times higher, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies reaches 0.77. This indicates that, from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between dollar-denominated house price growth and dollar-denominated nominal GDP growth in an economy is largely true. The differences in the long-term trend of dollar house prices in different economies can be broken down by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the factor of excessive money supply of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices rose significantly during the pandemic.</b></p><p><b>Over the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by an average of more than 7%, with Türkiye rising by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, Turkish house prices rose by 32%, ranking first. New Zealand followed closely behind, rising 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. Meanwhile, price increases in major Asian countries were lower than the global average, with Singapore experiencing the largest increase at 6.1%. Japan followed closely behind, rising 5.7%; Chinese housing prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The significant increase in housing prices during the pandemic was due to factors such as the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of pent-up demand for improved housing during the pandemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the pandemic, central banks around the world have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, which has reached the people through enterprise relief funds, unemployment benefits and other means. Meanwhile, under loose monetary policy, mortgage rates have decreased. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing policies has made people eager to find assets to preserve value, and real estate, which has the attributes of preserving and increasing value, has become the first choice for investment. 2) From a demand perspective, the pent-up demand for improvements during the pandemic was released after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events like the pandemic have led more and more investors to try to reduce risk by diversifying their asset allocation, making owning a second home a choice for more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From a supply perspective, the loose monetary policy has led to a general rise in asset prices, increased raw material prices, and increased construction costs. At the same time, the pandemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and thus driving up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. Which region within a country has seen the largest increase in housing prices: metropolitan areas with population inflows?</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have increased 113 times in 53 years, with inner London seeing even greater increases.</b></p><p>London has three areas: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London, also known as the City of London, is very small in area. In a general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, which includes 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the United Kingdom. The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and its surrounding areas. Due to urban planning issues and other problems that have led to prominent problems in large cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London decreased from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and later rebounded to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of the economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, and its proportion increased from 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Over the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in the UK and England (71 and 81 times, respectively) and the UK's nominal GDP increase (51 times).</b>According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from £4,400 to £500,000, in England from £3,400 to £275,000, and nationwide from £3,600 to £256,000. House prices in London increased 113 times, 71 times higher than the national average and 81 times higher than in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the UK's nominal GDP increased 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and house price increases significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the house price increases in Greater London were very similar to those in England and the UK before 1994, but the volatility increased significantly after 1995, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England, and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times, and 14.6 times respectively, with relatively small differences. However, from then until March 2018, the price increases varied significantly, reaching 5.3 times, 3.5 times, and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England, and the UK fell by 16.6%, 15.0%, and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009, respectively. Subsequently, against the backdrop of monetary stimulus for quantitative easing, housing prices gradually rebounded, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5%, and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Looking within the London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, while the increases in surrounding areas are all below 6.0%.</b>From January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London rose 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2, and 5.4 times, respectively. The house price increase in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. Furthermore, house prices in Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, rose only 4.6 times during that period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>Looking within Greater London, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times in the past 26 years, while house prices in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from £78,300 per unit to £594,500 per unit, a 7.6-fold increase. House prices in Outer London rose 6.2 times from £73,000 to £451,000. Currently, the most expensive homes in London are in Kensington and Chelsea (£1.2272 million per unit), followed by the City of Westminster (£936,800 per unit), representing increases of 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively compared to January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding those in surrounding areas.</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: the City of Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including the three suburban departments), and the Paris Region (including the four outer departments, also known as \"Île-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761, and 11,001 square kilometers respectively. The Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France's land area. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has long been concentrated in Paris and its surrounding areas. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, its population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and its economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, in order to control the population and address the problems of large cities, Paris experienced a long period of decline, from 2.89 million to 2.13 million from 1931 to 1999, before rebounding to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, housing prices in Paris have increased 43.7 times, significantly exceeding the average increase in French housing prices (26.6 times) and the increase in French nominal GDP (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2%, and 6.4%, respectively.</b>Prior to this, between 1945 and 1965, influenced by post-war reconstruction, the baby boom, and significant excess money supply, housing prices in Paris and France surged 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Viewed in stages,</b>The trend of housing prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, housing prices rose rapidly. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6%, respectively. 2) 1992-1997, a period of decline in housing prices. Due to rampant real estate speculation and excessive price increases in Paris around 1985-1990 (with increases exceeding 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), Parisian housing prices began to fall sharply. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of -6.1%, -0.4%, and 3.8%, respectively. By the end of 1997, Parisian house prices had plummeted to 69% of their 1991 levels. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, Parisian house prices, French house prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0%, respectively. Among them, Paris house prices fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, Paris house prices experienced a significant increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Paris saw the highest increase in housing prices in the Paris region. From Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, housing prices in Paris increased by more than 3.5 times, significantly higher than those in the three suburban departments and the four outer suburban departments.</b>Because Paris has a relatively small land area (105 square kilometers), slightly larger than the combined area of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we will no longer analyze housing prices within Paris. Instead, we will take Paris as the core area of the Paris region and analyze the differences in housing price trends between it and other areas of the Paris region. According to data from the French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times increase in the three near-suburban departments and the 1.6 times increase in the four far-suburban departments. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis, and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times, and 2.4 times, respectively. House prices in the four outlying departments of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne, and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.5 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City home prices have increased ninefold in 46 years, with Queens performing better.</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical District, etc. New York City covers an area of 789 square kilometers and had a population of 8.55 million in 2015. The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015. The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. In terms of population, due to the shift of the US economic center to the West Coast and South Coast, although the population of the New York area continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was far less than that of the Los Angeles area, which led to a significant decline in the population share of the New York area. During this period, due to suburbanization and the decline of manufacturing, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million between 1950 and 1980. Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rebounded to 8.55 million in 2015, but decreased slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>Over the past 46 years, New York City home prices have increased more than ninefold, higher than the U.S. average, but lower than the price increases in the surrounding areas of New York City and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, home prices in the United States, New York City, the New York-Jersey-White Plains area (one of the New York metropolitan areas) (1976-Q1 2021), and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan areas) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. While the price increase in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was not as high as that in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area, it was still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that New York City housing prices lagged behind U.S. nominal GDP and M2 during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area outpaced U.S. nominal GDP, approaching M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the New York metropolitan area, housing prices in the New York subdivision have more than quadrupled in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions of the New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains division, the New York metropolitan area also includes three divisions: Nassau County-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The housing price trends in the four major districts were basically the same. Among them, the Nassau County–Suffolk County district saw a 4.3-fold increase from 1986 to Q1 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first. The New York-Jersey City-White Plains area saw a 4.1-fold increase, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, ranking second. The Newark subdivision and the Dutchess County-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) increased by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within New York City, housing prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, higher than in New York City.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, home prices in Manhattan, New York City, increased 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%. Home prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, home prices in New York City and the New York borough increased 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities saw a 210-fold increase in prices over 36 years.</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Ward and Tokyo Metropolitan Area, which includes Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2,188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. The Tokyo metropolitan area accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area and had a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's total. Currently, the region's GDP accounts for about one-third of Japan's total.</p><p>Japan's population movement can be divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population was basically concentrated in the three poles of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya areas. From 1884 to 1973, excluding the impact of war, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% of the total population. The population of the Osaka area increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% of the total population. The population of the Nagoya area increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% of the total population. Subsequently, the population concentration shifted to the Tokyo metropolitan area, while the inflow and outflow of population in the Nagoya metropolitan area were basically balanced, and the Osaka metropolitan area experienced a long-term net outflow. By 2016, the populations of the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas were 36.29 million, 18.31 million, and 11.34 million, respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4%, and 8.9% of the total population. During this period, the population growth of the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas mainly stemmed from natural growth. Tokyo's population growth stagnated between 1970 and 1997, mainly due to industrial relocation and population migration from the Tokyo metropolitan area. However, the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan wards and the three prefectures within the Tokyo metropolitan area grew significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, with increases as high as 210 times in six core cities.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices continued to rise except for an adjustment in 1975, increasing 82 times between 1955 and 1991, exceeding the 55 times nominal GDP growth rate during that period. Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, while in non-core cities they rose 78 times. Looking at the stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in Japan's six core cities—Tokyo Ward, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe—increased 40.6 times, averaging 21.7% annually, while other cities increased 29.6 times, averaging 19.7% annually. During the same period, nominal GDP increased 15 times, averaging 15.7% annually. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in the six core cities rose 4.5 times, averaging 11.2% per year, while other cities rose 1.7 times, averaging 6.4% per year. During the same period, nominal GDP rose 2.2 times, averaging 7.5% per year.</p><p>Japanese housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main homebuyers. However, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s due to factors such as the rapid rise in the later stages, a sharp decline in the birth rate, the peak of the main homebuyers in the 1990s, and the Japanese government's erroneous response. After that, Japanese land prices continued to adjust until 2005, and in 2017, Japanese land prices were only 47.1% of their peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After a short-term rise from 2006 to 2008, they fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rebound in 2013 and have since reached 35.3% of the peak in 1991. Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The land price trend in the Tokyo area is basically the same as that in Japan as a whole, but its peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that in Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual increase of 11.1%. The decline continued until 2005, when it rebounded ahead of the rest of the country in 2014.</b>Housing prices in the Tokyo and Osaka areas peaked in 1990, while land prices in the Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992, respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0%. Especially before the housing bubble burst, land prices in the Tokyo area surged 0.95 times between 1987 and 1988, and in the Osaka area surged 1.6 times between 1988 and 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, land prices in the Tokyo area fell sharply until 2005. They began to rebound in 2006-2008, but were adjusted again in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and began to rebound again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in the Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of their peak values, respectively. The reason why land prices in the Osaka area have adjusted the most drastically is because they saw the largest increase before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>Land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988 and doubled in the five years prior to peaking. At the same time, they adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest within the Tokyo metropolitan area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and its wards peaked in 1988, two years earlier than in the Tokyo metropolitan area and three years earlier than in Japan as a whole. In the five years before the peak, housing prices in Tokyo's wards doubled, 1.8 times higher than in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than in the Tokyo metropolitan area. After peaking, housing prices in Tokyo and its wards continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rebound in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo wards rose by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in non-wards of Tokyo remained basically flat, while housing prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell by 1.7% cumulatively. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, its wards, and non-metropolitan wards were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7%, and 38.8% of their peak values, respectively, very close to the 40.7% in the Tokyo metropolitan area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Conclusion: Over the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing presses, driving new housing reforms.</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, population changes, money supply, and housing system. The first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive money supply can lead to a surge in domestic local currency housing prices, but not necessarily a surge in US dollar housing prices, meaning they may not have investment value from a global perspective. Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflationary properties and can partially share in the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies exceeded their respective CPI growth rates to varying degrees. In the UK, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, the average annual growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was still over 3%, while in Japan and Germany, the growth rate of real house prices after deducting CPI was close to 0. Compared to nominal GDP growth in local currencies, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed housing prices in Q1 of 1970-2021. This means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share in the dividends of economic growth.</p><p><b>In the long run, excessive global money supply is a common phenomenon. Broad money growth is often higher than nominal GDP growth, and few assets can outperform the money printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, UK house prices grew at an average annual rate of 5.6% from 1987 to 2020. Although this was higher than the average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money supply of 7.1%. From 1960 to 2020, U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5%, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at average annual rates of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains area was 5.8%, lower than the 6.8% growth rate of M2 during the same period and the same as the 5.8% growth rate of GDP. In China, the broad money supply M2 has grown at an average annual rate of 15% over the past forty years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly built housing nationwide has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the M2 growth rate during the same period. Meanwhile, housing prices in first-tier cities have basically kept pace with the M2 growth rate.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have significant investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies experience severe excessive money supply and significant housing price increases. However, from a global asset allocation perspective, investors focus on the increase in US dollar housing prices, which excludes exchange rate changes caused by relative excessive money supply. The increase in US dollar housing prices is mainly related to the growth of nominal US dollar GDP and can be broken down into factors such as economic growth, population changes, and housing systems. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may experience a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but attention should be paid to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a new housing system in China that is residence-oriented.</b>The development of China's real estate market over the past two decades has shown that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term supply and demand imbalance, and deepening housing system reform is the foundation for achieving stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, we will reform the \"people-land linkage\" and optimize land supply.</b>The current \"people-land linkage\" system links the number of rural migrants to the supply of construction land, which cannot solve the contradiction between population inflow and housing supply shortages in hot cities. In the future, it is necessary to promote the linking of new permanent residents to land supply and the balance between cross-provincial arable land occupation and compensation to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land. For example, the sale of land quotas in the Northeast and West regions can effectively solve the current problem of a large waste of land quotas in the Northeast and West. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory reduction cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply model.</p><p><b>Second, maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate finance policy.</b>Implement long-term and stable housing credit financial policies to stabilize homebuyers' expectations, support first-time homebuyers and those seeking to upgrade their homes, and curb speculative demand. Support real estate companies' reasonable financing needs, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>Third, we will transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply entities.</b>Currently, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over rental, and a housing system with diverse supply entities has not yet been established. In the future, the main suppliers will shift from developers to multiple suppliers, including the government, developers, leasing intermediaries, and long-term rental companies. The supply form will also shift from primarily commercial housing to multiple categories such as commercial housing, rental housing, and shared ownership housing. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be tailored to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be especially wary of blindly following trends.</p><p><b>Fourth, we will steadily promote the property tax pilot program.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and transaction taxes in the era of existing housing stock, the introduction of a property tax is an inevitable trend. International experience shows that property tax is typically regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue in mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization, and phased progress\". \"Legislation first\" means enacting legislation before implementing taxes; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing local governments to conduct pilot programs tailored to local conditions, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. According to international experience, property tax is a local main tax. \"Distributed progress\" is a positive and steady approach, and efforts should be made to ensure that the plan is mature and to guide social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF华夏","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}