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2022-01-01

TSLA: What are the major drivers?

The most obvious factor driving $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$share prices is that the company is constantly coming up with innovations and is led by an entrepreneurial maverick in Elon Musk. There's also no doubt the world will be embrace electric vehicles over the coming decades. Tesla already has an enviable position in this fast-growing marketplace. The range – Model S, Model 3, Model X and Model Y – are not only technologically advanced but visually appealing, which is why so many more are being seen on the roads.The company might also benefit from any increases in fuel prices or government regulations on more traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in the next few years.
TSLA: What are the major drivers?
avatarjayc
2022-01-03
$Ford(F)$In a research note, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli raised his price target for Ford Motor to $23 from $20 and maintained a "neutral" rating. In addition, the analyst raised his earnings forecast for 2020-2023 to reflect the company's fourth quarter, In particular, the strong growth trend in the US market.$General Motors(GM)$However, Michaeli sees more upside potential in General Motors, while maintaining a "constructive stance" on Ford. The analyst noted the industry's top pick for GM, which is expected to benefit from new truck updates and electric vehicle launches by 2023, with a long-term upside of $200 per share.
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2022-06-07

3 Reasons Amazon Stock Could Soar After Its Split

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$1. AWS is a beastWhen most people think of Amazon, they understandably think of its massive e-commerce business. The online retail leader commands the lion's share of many global e-commerce markets. For example, roughly 57% of all online retail purchases in the U.S. are made on Amazon's platform, according to digital payments research company PYMNTS. So the company's e-commerce sites are how many people engage with its services every day.2. Advertising is boomingDigital advertising is another often-overlooked profit driver for Amazon. With so many consumers beginning (and often ending) their online shopping searches on Amazon, the company's ad platform has become an indispensable marketing tool for countless third-party merchants
3 Reasons Amazon Stock Could Soar After Its Split
avatarjayc
2022-07-03

Advanced Micro Devices

$AMD(AMD)$A $50,000 investment in shares of AMD at the beginning of 2012 was worth more than $1.3 million at the end of 2021. Of course, the stock has pulled back 42% so far in 2022, but investors who bought the company's shares a decade ago are still sitting on fat gains.The good part is that AMD's slide this year has made the stock attractive as far as its valuation is concerned. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31 is way lower than its five-year average earnings multiple of 105. The forward P/E of 20 points toward healthy growth in AMD's bottom line over the next year.More importantly, a closer look at the markets that AMD serves tells us that this company could grow at an impressive pace for years to come. Take the data center busin
Advanced Micro Devices
avatarjayc
2022-04-06

History tends to repeat itself

History tends to repeat itself.In 1988 and 1998, tech stocks struggled before a 10-2 inversion, then soared for months. In 2006 and 2019, tech stocks struggled before a 10-2 inversion, then soared for months.I sound like a broken record, right?Well, here we are in 2022. And tech stocks are struggling while the 10-2 yield curve just inverted.It's clear what comes next: a huge tech stock rally.Philosophically, this makes a ton of sense. You must understand that markets are forward-looking. They price things in before they happen, so markets anticipate the effect of a yield curve inversion before it happens. That causes stocks to move lower. Then, once the yield curve inverts and there's no recession happening, investors breathe a sigh of relief. And they proceed to pile back into stocks.It h
History tends to repeat itself
avatarjayc
2021-09-04

What exactly is the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 Index is a stock Index of 500 publicly traded companies in the United States. The stock index is created and maintained by Standard & Poor's.All companies covered by the S&P 500 are listed on major U.S. exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The S&P 500 contains more companies than the Dow, so risk is more diversified and reflects broader market changes.Top 10 S&P 500 holdings: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMORGAN Chase, ALPHABET INC A, ALPHABET INC C (Parent company of Google) Are these companies familiar? Most of them are fortune 500 companies. So by investing in the S&P 500, you're indirectly owning these great companies.The stocks that make up the S&P 500 inde
What exactly is the S&P 500?
avatarjayc
2022-03-19
$Apple(AAPL)$In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:
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2022-02-25

Delivery growth could remain muted in Q4

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$'s management had noted during Q3 earnings call that their other sales were unusually high during the quarter due to the sales of regulatory EV credits ahead of time. But they expect this revenue stream to shrink going forward as the price of these credits drops with the rapid electric vehicle penetration in China.This year, basically, we believe the number of the credits we receive will increase. But this year, the penetration rate of the EV has increased very rapidly. This probably is going to change the situation for next year regarding the regulatory credit sales. According to my personal estimation, I think considering all those factors, the price of the EV credit is going to be different or probably going to be lower, compared
Delivery growth could remain muted in Q4
avatarjayc
2022-05-29

Valuations are becoming reasonable

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$On the valuation side, Nvidia still has a "best-in-class" premium over its smaller competitors. In terms of expected P/E ratio, NVIDIA still has a value of 30x, compared to its rival $AMD(AMD)$with an expected P/E ratio of 22x, while other competitors also have relatively low expected P/E ratios, with $Texas Instruments(TXN)$at 19x, $Intel(INTC)$at 12x.Currently, the 1-year valuation of NVIDIA stock is significantly below the mean level and is in the region of the lowest 1-year level. Some analysts believe this suggests that if the latest results and earnings guidance can equal or even exceed market
Valuations are becoming reasonable
avatarjayc
2021-09-13

Price-To-Book (P/B Ratio)

The price to book ratio, also called the P/B or market to book ratio, is a financial valuation tool used to evaluate whether the stock a company is over or undervalued by comparing the price of all outstanding shares with the net assets of the company. In other words, it's a calculation that measures the difference between the book value and the total share price of the company.A high price to book ratio indicates that a stock is expensive, while a low ratio indicates that it is cheap.So-called value stocks often have a low price to book ratio, which indicates that you can buy the stock for a low price relative to the value of its assets.Calculation of P/B Ratio:Let's calculate the market to book ratio for ABC company.At the end of 2020, ABC stock was trading for $418 dollars per share, wi
Price-To-Book (P/B Ratio)
avatarjayc
10-12
I expect a boost for the crypto markets, particularly because lower interest rates tend to increase liquidity and make riskier assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive to investors. A reduction in rates could serve as a catalyst for a year-end rally. The potential rate cut might set the stage for a crypto bull market, driven by increased liquidity, lower borrowing costs and a quite favorable market sentiment.
avatarjayc
2022-06-22

Nvidia’s Business Is Robust

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$The world feels like it's going to hell in a hand basket, doesn't it? That attitude is being reflected in the stock market, which has had one of its worst starts to the year in many decades. Analysts expect 26% revenue growth this year, with estimates calling for double-digit revenue growth in each of the next four years. And remember, analysts have been embarrassingly conservative with their estimates over the last few years. That goes for $AMD(AMD)$as well.How many high-quality companies are growing revenue and earnings in excess of 20% this year? Not many and yet, NVDA stock has experienced a peak-to
Nvidia’s Business Is Robust
avatarjayc
2021-09-06

Afraid of the September Curse?

Historically speaking, September has been the worst month for the stock market. Could this year be any different? The rise of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$so far has bolstered hopes that the index will continue to perform well for the rest of the year. Talks of an impending market correction and time for a pullback should not sway investors from staying vested in the market. Buying and selling simply based on the month of the calender is not necessary a wise strategy. It is better to stay vested in the market to maximise gains than to attempt to time the market since it is difficult if not almost impossible to correctly time market tops and bottoms. Moving forward, the ride upwards could be bumpy and investment portfolio may be hit along the way. So l
Afraid of the September Curse?
avatarjayc
2022-03-17

How Will Amazon's Stock Split Impact My Tax Returns?

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$Is a stock split good?Although it may appear that you've hit the jackpot when you hear about a stock split, it isn't as glamorous as it sounds. You'll receive additional shares of Amazon in your account but the overall value of your shares won't change.Let's say you owned one share of Amazon stock valued at $3,000 before the split. After a 20-for-1 stock split, you now own 20 shares of stock that are worth $150 per share. The total value of all your shares will still be $3,000.What you should know about taxesRelax. I'm not about to throw thousands of tax considerations and forms at you. Stock splits are tax-friendly. Because you don't make any money from a stock split in itself, you don't have to cough up any money to the IRS.Sel
How Will Amazon's Stock Split Impact My Tax Returns?
avatarjayc
2022-03-19

Alphabet (GOOGL)

$Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$Shares of the parent company of the world's largest and most used search engine, Alphabet, did not enter 2022 on a good note. However, Alphabet not only beat all Wall Street estimates, but it was another company that decided to share news of a stock split, which excited retail investors.Like Amazon's stock split, this move by Alphabet does not change the fundamentals of its business. One can think of a stock split as the equivalent of taking a company's market capitalization (a pie) and cutting it into more slices. Investors own more shares (slices) of this pie, though their total percentage ownership of said company remains the same.This move has been seen as a bullish o
Alphabet (GOOGL)
avatarjayc
2022-06-17

Uncertainty is high

Historically, when long-term inflation expectations are rising, it has led international stocks to outperform U.S. stocks. International markets tend to be more inflation-sensitive, with more companies that benefit from higher inflation than those that suffer. While there can be no guarantees, international stocks have been outperforming in recent months.Shorter-duration stocks can help manage the risk of rising rates. In other words, stocks with more immediate cash flows, rather than cash flows in the distant future, tended to outperform after rates bottomed in 2020, and are more dominant in international markets.Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022, but it remains high. Having a well-balanced, diversified portfolio, with a risk profile consistent with your goals
Uncertainty is high
avatarjayc
2022-01-09
$Apple(AAPL)$Apple has been performing well and thus, expectations are high. Any less than expected earnings will thus likely have a disproportionate negative reaction as compared to other tech stocks. On the other hand, if profits are in line or slightly exceeds expectations, price might only rise moderately. My view is that Apple must truly perform spectacularly in order to get a good price reaction but I am pessimistic that they can continue to do so given the increasingly competitive spaces that they operate in. 
avatarjayc
2022-01-02

January Effect: January Effect

Definition:The January Effect is a common statistical analysis of stock market movements in which returns in January tend to be "positive". The January effect first appeared in the United States, and then scholars in other countries have also found that the January effect exists in other stock markets.Part of the reason:Tax effectHere's what the tax code looks like in the United States; If profits are taxed, the tax is called capital gains tax. If the stock is sold at a higher price than the purchase price, the profit is taxed. But the tax is symmetrical. If the selling price is lower than the purchase price, the investment loses money. In principle, these losses are tax deductible.The profit of stock investment erodes duty effect, not be of plan account face, however the business accordin
January Effect: January Effect
avatarjayc
2022-04-14

Apple Begins Manufacturing iPhone In India

$Apple(AAPL)$has started manufacturing the iPhone 13 in India, Reuters reports.Apple produced the iPhone at a local plant of Apple's Taiwanese contract manufacturer $Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd.(HNHAF)$, operating as Foxconn in Sriperumbudur in Southern Tamil Nadu.Also Read: China's Smartphone Shipment Plunges By 32% In February, Here's Why Apple Could Shine Amid China's Covid ResurgenceApple shifted some areas of iPhone production from China to other markets, including India, the world's second-biggest smartphone market, to reduce reliance on its Chinese supply chain.Apple also looked to assemble iPad tablets in India.Apple launched manufacturing operations in India in 2017 with the iPhone SE wit
Apple Begins Manufacturing iPhone In India
avatarjayc
2022-07-17

5 economic indicators that I focus on as an investor

1. Jobs ReportWhy: The North Star for me is that my companies should be delivering strong results if people are employed, making money, and spending their money on goods & services that my company provides. Low unemployment, strong job creation, and a tight labor market quickly signals to me my companies should continue to do well with a firm economy.2. Jobless ClaimsWhy: I really like to get a weekly Thursday update on how many people are filing for unemployment so I can get timely & high-frequency update on how the labor market is doing. A strong labor market is very important so my companies can sustain demand and deliver strong results.3. Materials released from the Federal Reserve like FOMC Projections, FOMC Minutes, FOMC Announcement, and Fed Chair Press ConferenceWhy: They'r
5 economic indicators that I focus on as an investor

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