Options Market Statistics (2/8): Microsoft Receives Bullish Bets After Adding ChatGPT to Bing Futures slipped, suggesting a rally in U.S. stocks could pause Wednesday as investors consider what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks mean for the trajectory of interest rates. A key focus for investors this week has been comments from Fed officials. Following Mr. Powell's remarks Tuesday, bank officials including Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Fed governor Christopher Waller are due to speak on Wednesday. Days after $Apple(AAPL)$ CEO Tim Cook said the 'Buy Now, Pay Later' service will be "launching soon," the tech giant has reportedly started contacting retail employees to offer them a test version. Apple shares rose nearly 2%, with option volume of nearly 1.13 million, and calls accounted for 59.1% of the volume. The 155.00 calls expiring Friday lead the flow with the highest volume. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ held a press event on Tuesday to announce ChatGPT integration into its services. Microsoft shares rose nearly 4% on the event, with option volume of nearly 820,000, and calls accounted for 67.3% of the volume. After a wild day for the meme stocks, $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$  shares plunged more than 48%, with option volume of nearly 1.09 million, and calls accounted for 56.4% of the volume. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Chief Elon Musk teased another update about "Master Plan 3′′ late on Tuesday night, hinting that it would be revealed at the electric vehicle firm's Investor Day event at Giga Texas. Tesla shares rose 2.52%, with option volume of nearly 2.42 million, and calls accounted for 61.9% of the volume. The 200.00 and 195.00 calls expiring Friday lead the flow with the highest volumes. Movie-theater chain's Sightline at $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$  will assign prices to seats based on sightlines to the movie screen. AMC shares fell more than 9%, with option volume of nearly 450,000 options traded, and calls accounted for 66.6% of the volume. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Markets Should Rally After a Fed Pause. But It May Be a While The stock market usually performs well once the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but that rally might have to wait. The central bank has been lifting rates since last year to cool inflation by reducing economic demand, causing worries it could trigger a recession. But the rate of inflation has been declining, signifying that the end of rate increases may be near. That optimism has powered the $S&P 500(.SPX)$  to an almost 15% gain from its early October low point, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is up just over 15% in that time. Many fast-growing technology stocks are valued on the basis that a bulk of their profits will come many years in the future -- and future profits become more valuable when rates go down. More gains could be on the way when the Fed does pause. The S&P 500's median move in the six months after the Fed's final rate increase in hiking cycles dating back to 1990 is up 13%, according to RBC. In other time periods, that gain is less, but a gain nonetheless. Since 1995, the S&P 500 technology sector performs the best under these circumstances, with median returns of up 19%, according to RBC. So if the market keeps trading the way it has, then a Fed pause would unlock more Nasdaq, or tech, outperformance. The problem is that the Fed may not be close to the end of its rate hikes. First off, the January jobs report was hotter than expected, which means inflation might not decline quickly enough for the central bank to pause soon. Secondly, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that more rate hikes are likely necessary. Combine that with the fact that stocks are not exactly cheap, and it seems that the market could be in for a rough road ahead until the Fed finally stops increasing rates. Stock valuations remain at historically high levels, given the level of interest rates on risk-free bonds. Plus, there is added risk to economic activity and earnings if rates move higher. That is why the S&P 500 has run into "resistance." At roughly the 4100 level, it is having trouble moving higher from here. Sellers have come in at this level consistently over the past several months, as the Fed and economic outlook hasn't improved enough. Things in the stock market might just have to get worse before they get better. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Microsoft Adds ChatGPT AI Technology to Bing Search Engine $Microsoft(MSFT)$  is integrating the technology behind the viral chatbot ChatGPT into its Bing search engine, hoping the artificial intelligence upgrade can help it chip away at $Alphabet(GOOG)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 's dominance of the search market. The breakout success of the bot from the Microsoft-backed OpenAI has put the software giant at the forefront of what some see as the next wave of technological innovation: generative artificial intelligence. In an event Tuesday to launch the technology, Microsoft said the Bing upgrade will enable a new kind of search in which people will pose questions to the search engine in natural language and it will generate direct answers and suggestions. Mr. Nadella put the significance of AI-powered search on the same level of importance as the development of web browsers and mobile devices. Unlike ChatGPT, which wasn't able to answer questions about current events, the updated Bing uses newer technology tailored for search engines. It will have access to the latest information such as news stories, train schedules and product pricing. It will also be able to provide links to demonstrate where its answers are coming from, another feature that wasn't part of ChatGPT. Microsoft shares rose 4% to $267.56 in 4 p.m. trading Tuesday. Microsoft, which is investing billions of dollars into OpenAI, is integrating the technology into many of its products, marking what it pitches as a new era of AI-powered software that has the potential to upend power in the tech industry. Some analysts say AI-powered searches could help Microsoft's Bing search engine take market share away from Alphabet Inc.'s Google, which controls around 90% of the market. The industry has been buzzing about the possibilities of generative AI since OpenAI released its image generation tech Dall-E 2 to the public last year. Dall-E 2 can create original images based on simple prompts, such as, "Draw a robot dancing in a field of flowers." OpenAI released ChatGPT in November. Millions of people have since used it to generate essays, sales pitches and poems. The popularity of the tools has put pressure on Google, which has long been at the forefront of AI technology, to match it. Earlier this week, Google announced it is rolling out its own conversational artificial-intelligence service to a set of testers and plans a broader public launch in the coming weeks. The new experimental service, called Bard, generates responses to questions posed by users, based on information drawn from the web, Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Google parent Alphabet, said in a blog post published Monday. Shares of Chinese internet giant $Baidu(BIDU)$ $BIDU-SW(09888)$ surged in Hong Kong Tuesday as it confirmed plans to launch an artificial-intelligence chatbot. Baidu said it expects to launch its AI chatbot, called Ernie Bot, in March. Some artificial intelligence analysts warn there are still potential problems with generative AI. ChatGPT, for example, can be expensive to run and slow, and it sometimes produces responses that contain made-up facts, they have said. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was at the Microsoft event, saying the new uses for AI technology mark the "beginning of a new era." In the past he has warned that it is still evolving and prone to inaccuracies. Mr. Altman said both OpenAI and Microsoft are taking a cautious approach in how they roll out the technology, trying to take measures to ensure that Bing won't generate dangerous or offensive content. The technology is proving powerful in some cases, such as when it is paired with professionals for specific tasks. Last year Microsoft released GitHub Copilot which uses OpenAI tools to help programmers write and fix computer code. Microsoft estimated that in files in which it is enabled, Copilot generates 40% of the code. The company last year also integrated OpenAI's image-generation tech into its Bing and graphical design software Microsoft Designer. The latest applications of the technology to Bing as well as Microsoft's Edge browser are aimed at creating similar partnerships between people and AI, Mr. Nadella said. On Tuesday Microsoft showed off Bing's new ability to spit out brief biographies of famous Mexican artists, compare features of new televisions and generate a family's weekly dinner menu. Using a Bing integration into Microsoft's Edge web browser, people can converse with the search engine to refine initial answers. For example, it can take a suggested menu and generate a shopping list for the ingredients. The search engine cites sources of the information that make up its responses. While that citation ability is an improvement over ChatGPT and gives people a better sense of where answers are coming from, it could raise questions about copyright and the effect this new search model will have on web traffic. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

How Warren Buffett's Fund Manager Turned $70K Into $264M: 'In A Perfect World, Nobody Would Know About This' Legendary investor Warren Buffett is widely considered one of the greatest investors of all time. It turns out Berkshire's investing approach can be learned and repeated, evidenced by the mind-blowing returns one of his portfolio managers has generated. According to a Business Insider report, citing a Washington Post interview from late 2021, Ted Weschler, an investment manager at $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$, grew his retirement account from $70,000 to $264 million in less than 30 years with a simple approach. The massive fortune was first uncovered in June 2021 when ProPublica got ahold of Weschler's tax returns. The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio manager then shared some details about how he managed to amass the wealth with reporter Allan Sloan. Weschler definitely got an early start, and anyone hoping to replicate the feat needs to do the same. The report indicates that Weschler started an IRA in 1984 at the age of 22 and by the time he was 27, he had grown his account to $70,384 by maxing out his contributions and doubling down via employer match. He quit his job as a financial analyst and began his journey in private equity. Despite getting off to a rocky start with investments in Continental Health and Intelogic, his new role ultimately led him to become a hedge fund manager by the turn of the century. Speaking with Sloan, the portfolio manager noted that all losses are simply "unmonetized lessons." Weschler reportedly generated compound annual returns of 22% for more than a decade before he joined Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in 2012. He noted that he used to focus on companies that he believed were in much better standing than the market was pricing in. Weschler also said he spent a lot of his time studying companies and industries in order to find important pieces of information the market was missing. For those who don't have the time, he recommended focusing on index funds like the $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ . They can be very powerful tools for investors who can't closely follow individual investments, he said. But his main advice is to keep all of your money in equities and to tune out anyone who tells you to do something different. The Berkshire manager told the Washington Post he made all of his money by investing in publicly available securities, suggesting anyone can do it with the right approach. Buffett too was a beneficiary of an early start. The billionaire investor has been piling money into equities since he was 11. If you don't have the early start advantage in front of you, one can always back the guys who are arguably the best to ever do it by buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The fund has historically outperformed the S&P 500. Berkshire Hathaway has averaged an 11.39% annual return over the last 10 years. It's up more than 215% since Weschler joined the firm in 2012. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Baidu also Launching a ChatGPT Rival and the share price is growing up! A frenzy over investing opportunities in artificial intelligence continues to benefit $Baidu(BIDU)$ , with shares in the Chinese tech giant rallying Tuesday after the company revealed concrete plans to launch a chatbot to rival the likes of popular ChatGPT. American depositary receipts of Baidu jumped 12% in the market trading on Tuesday, bringing the 2023 gain for the shares above 20%. The stock's latest jump higher comes as Baidu detailed plans to launch an artificial intelligence chatbot in the coming months, confirming media reports that had telegraphed the move. Baidu confirmed that the name of its AI chatbot would be called "ERNIE Bot" in English, and that the company plans to complete internal testing in March before making the chatbot available to the public. China's answer to Google, Baidu's core business is in online search and advertising -- but it has recently begun to increase its focus on high-growth areas such as AI and cloud computing. Baidu's advances in AI so far include a booming autonomous ride-hailing arm that completed hundreds of thousands of rides in China last year, including offering the first fully driverless services in the country. That has made Baidu well-positioned to benefit from an explosion of interest in AI this year, driven in part by widespread public attention on generative AI chatbot ChatGPT. Amid an ongoing investor frenzy over AI stocks that shows few signs of stopping -- with $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 's Google planning on rolling out its own chatbot called Bard in the coming weeks -- Baidu increasingly looks like a Chinese way to play the trend. And the stock is looked upon favorably by Wall Street. Baidu has an average rating of Buy among analysts surveyed by FactSet, with an average price target on the ADRs of around $170. Even after recent gains -- with the shares poised to open around $160 on Tuesday -- that means there is still some implied upside. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Stock Market Poised for Next Leg Lower as Profits Shrink, Says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson One of Wall Street's biggest bears believes U.S. stocks are poised for their next leg lower as the January effect and other factors that had supported markets in the early weeks of the New Year have started to fade. In a note to clients dated Monday, Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanely, said "the door is still very much open" for U.S. stocks to fall as investors grappled with an earnings outlook that has substantially weakened during the month of January. Expectations for corporate profits in 2023 have continued to deteriorate since the start of the year. In fact, as of the end of last month, expectations for S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth for 2023 turned negative for the first time since 2020, and only the fifth time since 2000. Previous instances occurred in 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2020. And each time, it preceded further downside in the S&P 500, as Wilson and his team illustrated. According to data from FactSet, the calendar-year EPS expectations for 2023 fell by 2.5% during the first quarter to $224.88. At this level, corporate earnings would be contracting, not growing. "What makes this analysis more powerful is that, historically, the majority of the price downside in equities comes after forward EPS growth goes negative. In other words, this earnings recession is not priced, in our view," Wilson said. Expectations for corporate earnings growth have deteriorated by 2.5% since the start of January, according to FactSet data. That's the largest such decline to kick off a year since January 2016. This dimming has occurred as companies have reported their quarterly results for the fourth quarter of 2023. So far, America's largest publicly traded companies are on track to see profits shrink by 5.3% compared with the same period in 2021. Barring a sudden turnaround, this will be the first such decline since the third quarter of 2020, according to FactSet. But while other periods of deterioration coincided with a Federal Reserve that was cutting interest rates to protect the economy, Wilson said that this time around, the Fed is still hiking interest rates, with no plans to start cutting until 2024 according to the central bank's official projections. "In other words, this earnings recession is not priced," he said. To be sure, Wilson says there are other reasons to be bearish on U.S. stocks besides the fundamental earnings picture. In his note, he also pointed to positioning, as institutional investors have already rebuilt their stockholdings, which could constrain further gains. Wilson also sees the recent underperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a sign that stocks could be ready to sour once again. Heading into the new year, Wilson had expected the S&P 500 to reach a new cycle low closer to 3,000 before the end of the first quarter. Now, he expects this decline will arrive eventually, although they could take longer to play out. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ are on track to finish in the red for a second day in a row on Friday. The large-cap index was down 0.4% in recent trade at 4,121, but it has still risen more than 7% since the start of the year. The Nasdaq was off 0.6% at 11,937, but is still up more than 14% for the year. The $DJIA(.DJI)$ was marginally higher Monday afternoon, but is up roughly 2.5% for the year so far. Wilson is Morgan Stanley's top U.S. equity strategist. He earned plaudits for correctly anticipating the selloff in stocks and bonds in 2022, which saw the S&P 500 fall 19.4% for the worst calendar-year decline since 2008. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

News Highlights: Top Global Markets News of the Day Stock Waver Ahead of Powell Remarks Stock wavered ahead of comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that investors hope will shed light on the path for U.S. interest rates. Market Rally Broadens as Tech Firms Join In Bellwethers like Meta, Apple and Microsoft have broken through their long-term trend lines. Bonds Have Been in Rally Mode. Don't Get Excited-The Fed Has More Work to Do Interest rate hikes have yet to lead to a meaningful drop in consumer demand as companies still add labor. This means the Federal Reserve will need to maintain aggressive monetary tightening, which could spell trouble for bond investors. A digital currency is likely to be needed, says U.K. Treasury and Bank of England The U.K. government said Monday that a digital currency is likely needed, as countries around the world examine the changing nature of payments. China Forex Reserves Rose in January The country's foreign-exchange reserves rose in January, beating expectations, amid a weakening U.S. dollar. Crypto Brands Reposition Themselves in Wake of FTX and Market Tumble Once crypto was marketed as the transgressive future of finance. Now its message is simpler: dependability, transparency and trust. As one crypto chief put it: 'Boring is not bad.' Russia Pushes on Several Fronts in Ukraine Russian forces launched multiple attacks in eastern Ukraine, pushing for a breakthrough on the battlefield ahead of the delivery of new Western weapons. Market Rally Stirs Concerns It Could Feed Inflation Economists disagree about how much market-driven financial conditions influence the economy relative to interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Biden to Urge Quadrupling New 1% Tax on Stock Buybacks The president intends to discuss the plan during his State of the Union speech on Tuesday. Tech Giants' Cloud Pains Aren't Shared Equally The tech slowdown is finally hitting the cloud. The largest player might be paying the biggest price. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Options Market Statistics (2/7): Tesla Options Traders Are More Bullish Than Musk Stock futures wavered Tuesday ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that investors hope will shed light on the path for U.S. interest rates. Mr. Powell is due to speak at the Economic Club of Washington at 12:40 p.m. ET, in an interview with Carlyle Co-Chairman David Rubenstein. Investors will dissect Mr. Powell's comments for clues on how the Fed chair is thinking about future monetary policy. Investors have grown optimistic that the Fed is approaching the end of its most aggressive series of interest-rate increases since the 1980s. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares edged higher by 2.52%, with option volume of nearly 2.21 million, and calls accounted for 64.4% of the volume. The 200.00 calls expiring Friday lead the flow with a volume of 140,000. Wedbush lowered BBBY price target on $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ to $0, saying the struggling retailer's planned equity offering was a "last gasp" before filing for bankruptcy protection. The equity offering, announced Monday, plans to raise more than $1 billion to repay debt. Shares up 92.13% yesteday, with volume 2x normal at 1.05 million contracts, and calls accounted for 65% of the volume. $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$  shares jumped nearly 12%, with option volume of 960,000, also nearly doubling, with puts accounted for 55.1% of the volume. Puts on AMC with farther out expiration date were traded actively, with a strike price of $2.00 and $4.00, respectively. $Apple(AAPL)$ shares were nearly 2% lower, with option volume of 1.05 million, and calls accounted for 52.5% of the volume. The 150 and 155 calls expiring Friday were the traded most actively. @TigerStars   @Daily_Discussion  

S&P 500 might not be a good choice?  The stock market's monthlong rally had gone too far. More gains for the near-term won't come easily. The S&P 500 had gained as much as 17% since its early October low point of its bear market. Driving the rally is a declining rate of inflation, would could mean that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes are having the desired effect. If the central bank ended rate hikes, that could mean a bottom in economic growth. There are a few issues with the resulting rally, however. The first is that economic growth -- and corporate earnings -- will continue to get hit before any recovery takes place. Just last week, $Apple(AAPL)$  and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ posted poor quarters versus analysts expectations, as advertising spending was weak. Disappointing earnings combined with higher stock prices have driven stock valuations higher. The S&P 500's aggregate forward price/earnings multiple is now at about 18.4 times, up from 15.3 at the index's October low. For every dollar of earnings of the index, an investor pays about $18.40 to own the S&P 500. The index yields 5.4%, only 1.8 percentage points better than the yield on the safe 10-year U.S. government bond. That's not a lot of extra compensation for taking on the risk of buying stocks, and it's below the typical premium. Historically, the S&P 500 tends to yield about three or four percentage points more than the 10-year bond on average, according to Morgan Stanley. In short, the rally has made stocks too expensive. "There's an element of that "FOMO,'" or fear of missing out, said Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth, U.S. The other problem is that the Fed may not even be finished with its rate hikes. Friday's hotter-than-expected January jobs report signifies that inflation may decline rather slowly, forcing the Fed into more rate hikes from here. That means more pressure on economic demand -- and on companies' profits. The jobs report has already been the catalyst moving stocks downward in the past couple days. The S&P 500 is experiencing its second straight day of declines Monday. That the market is experiencing weakness at this level isn't a surprise. The S&P 500 is just above 4100, a level where sellers have emerged to slow down the index's rise several times in the past few months. The market needs to see either lower rates or higher earnings expectations before buyers come in at this level. That makes reaching the 4200 mark an even harder one to achieve. That's also a level that has lured sellers to come in and knock the index down, too. Last week, the index rallied to just under that level before promptly dropping. The index also failed to surpass that level after a late August rally and an early June gain. "We expect 4200 to act as formidable resistance and see the SPX turning lower from here," wrote Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. The market will get there, but it's probably going to take some time -- and have many fits and starts. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Options Market Statistics (2/6): Traders Purchase Large Volume of Put Options on AMC Entertainment Futures pointed to further losses for U.S. stocks, after strong jobs data last week raised the prospect of more rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Stocks ripped higher at the start of 2023, boosted by wagers that slowing inflation will encourage the Fed to pause rate hikes, then unwind some of them later this year. But Friday's surprisingly strong jobs report suggested the Fed might feel the need to keep raising rates to curb wage growth, and then hold rates steady for an extended period, according to The Wall Street Journal. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  shares plunged by more than 8% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Trade Commission was looking into an antitrust lawsuit against the online megastore, which wields considerable power over the distribution of many small companies' goods. Option volume topped nearly 1.48 million, and calls accounted for over 70% of the volume. The 110.00 calls expiring this Friday lead the flow. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares jumped nearly 1% with option volume of 1.45 million, and calls accounted for 62.6% of the volume. The 200.00 calls expiring this Friday were traded most actively. Third party retailers in China are offering discounts of as much as 10% on iPhone 14 Pro amid sluggish demand for smartphones. $Apple(AAPL)$  shares edged 2.46% higher, with option volume of nearly 1.12 million, and calls accounted for more than 60%. The 155.00 puts expiring this Friday were traded most actively.  $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ shares were mostly flat last Friday, with option volume of nearly 380,000, and calls accounted for 63.4% of the volume. The 2.00 puts expiring this March 17 were traded most actively at a volume of 190,000. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

ChatGPT Effect? Google Intensifies AI Focus With Latest Investment $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  invested nearly $400 million in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic AI, which trialed a rival to OpenAI's ChatGPT. Anthropic chose Google Cloud as the preferred cloud provider for building AI systems.Google Cloud plans to build large-scale, next-generation TPU and GPU clusters that Anthropic plans to use to train and deploy its cutting-edge AI systems. Anthropic CEO Dario Amode said, "We've been impressed with Google Cloud's open and flexible infrastructure. We are excited to partner with Google to scale up our systems in the coming months." Anthropic was founded in January 2021 by the team behind AI breakthroughs like GPT-3 and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). Recently, Google trialed new AI-powered chat products to integrate them into a search engine.Google worked on a project under its cloud unit called "Atlas" to respond to the large-language chatbot ChatGPT. Google also tested a chatbot called "Apprentice Bard," where employees can ask questions and receive detailed answers similar to ChatGPT.The product tests followed a meeting where employees flagged the company's competitive edge in AI, given the sudden popularity of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ backed OpenAI's ChatGPT. Microsoft shared a new multiyear, $10 billion deal in January with OpenAI. The deal followed its previous investments in 2019 and 2021. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ shares traded lower by 1.19% at $103.53 premarket on the last check Monday. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Big Tech Just Added to a Shrinking Forecast, but Maybe Bob Iger Can Brighten the Mood Analysts are reducing annual projections faster than any year since 2016, and that was before $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ tripped up, but $Walt Disney(DIS)$  offers the most dramatic show of the earnings season to look forward to. Wall Street's expectations for 2023 have been diving as forecasts for the new year come in light, and the news could get worse once they factor in disappointing results from Big Tech. But at least Bob Iger is coming back for a sequel. Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple all disappointed with holiday earnings this week. Their forecasts ranged from nonexistent to piecemeal to meh, and the fallout will only add to the biggest dive in Wall Street's expectations through the beginning of a year since 2016. Analysts' average forecast for 2023 earnings from the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.5% in January, according to FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, the worst in seven years. Those projections began heading lower last year, and the decline is only steepening -- analysts are now projecting 3% earnings growth in 2023, and that is contingent on a big holiday rebound from the results being released this quarter. The news was even worse for the first quarter, for which projections declined 3.3% in January as companies whiffed on their forecasts at a rapid pace: 86% of the 43 companies that have guided for first-quarter earnings have missed projections, Butters reported. Earnings are now expected to decline 4.2%, which would be the first year-over-year earnings decline since the third quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic write-offs started to come in. Big Tech only added to the downward trajectory in recent days. Amazon.com missed on its holiday earnings as well as its forecast for the first quarter, and that company could determine if S&P 500 profits rise in 2023 all on its own. Amazon's worst holiday earnings since 2014 could also contribute to the consumer discretionary sector's first earnings decline since the beginning of the pandemic, with holiday sector earnings now expected to drop more than 5%. Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ also missed their respective earnings targets amid problems with the digital-advertising industry, leading to the communications-services sector having the worst earnings season in the S&P 500. Profit has declined 25.2% in that sector so far, the worst among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, but would be down just 6.5% without the effects of Meta and Alphabet, Butters reported. Apple also didn't do projections any favors, reporting its biggest sales decrease since 2016 and an earnings miss Thursday afternoon. In a piecemeal forecast, executives projected a similar sales decline in the calendar first quarter, though unofficially. After the busiest week in earnings season wrapped up, don't expect much of a breather -- 95 S&P 500 companies are expected to report in the week ahead, the third consecutive week with at least 90 companies reporting. Only one Dow Jones Industrial Average stock will report, but that is the Wednesday call you will want to tune in for: Bob Iger's return to the $Disney(DIS.US)$ earnings show. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Third-Largest U.S. Pension Sells Alibaba, TSMC, and MGM Stock. It Bought Harley-Davidson One of the largest U.S. public pension plans made big changes in its investments, including Asian tech giants. The New York State Common Retirement Fund cut its investments in $Alibaba(BABA)$ , $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , and $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$, and doubled a stake in $Harley-Davidson(HOG)$ in the fourth quarter. The fund disclosed the stock trades, among others, in a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The office of New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, the sole trustee of the pension, declined to comment on the stock trades. As of Sept. 30, the fund's estimated assets were $ 233.2 billion. It's the third-largest U.S. pension by assets, according to Pensions & Investments. The pension sold 79,212 American depositary receipts of Chinese internet giant Alibaba in the fourth quarter to cut its investment to 637,996 ADRs. Alibaba ADRs slid 26% in 2022, compared with a 19% drop in the S&P 500 index. So far this year, the ADRs are up 21%, while the index is 7.7% higher. Taiwan Semiconductor, also known as TSMC, has rallied in 2023 as well, with ADRs of the world's largest contract chip maker soaring 27%. They dove 38% in 2022. TSMC ADRs got a boost in November, after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKb) disclosed that it made a large initial investment in the company's securities. In January, TSMC reported a record fourth quarter, but still expects "the whole industry to drop slightly." The company plans to begin making 4-nanometer chips in a new Arizona plant in 2024. New York's pension sold 423,194 TSMC ADRs to lower its investment to 2.1 million ADRs at the end of December. The fund sold 484,141 MGM shares in the fourth quarter to cut its stake to 677,981 shares. MGM stock dropped 25% in 2022, and so far this year shares are up 24%. MGM, among other casino peers, was pressured in 2022 by Covid-19 closures and reopenings in Macau. MGM offered last May to acquire LeoVegas, a Swedish online gambling firm, and closed the transaction later that year. In January of this year, MGM committed to a 10-year license renewal in Macau. MGM reports fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 8. Harley-Davidson reported strong earnings in 2022, a year that saw shares rise 10%. So far in 2023, shares are up 23%, and the strong earnings reports have continued as shipments soar. New York's pension bought 155,070 more Harley-Davidson shares to end the fourth quarter with 317,809 shares. Inside Scoop is a regular Barron's feature covering stock transactions by corporate executives and board members -- so-called insiders -- as well as large shareholders, politicians, and other prominent figures. Due to their insider status, these investors are required to disclose stock trades with the Securities and Exchange Commission or other regulatory groups. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Elon Musk Says Twitter Is Headed for 'Breakeven' After He Saved It Elon Musk said Sunday that his social media company Twitter is "trending to breakeven" after he had to save it from "bankruptcy." The past three months when he ran Twitter after buying for $44 billion, in addition to keeping his day jobs at Tesla and SpaceX, were "extremely tough." He has described himself as a nanomanager who works long hours, goes to bed late, and sleeps very little, The Wall Street Journal reported. He apologized during his testimony at a federal trial in San Francisco in January for "squirming around" with "quite severe back pain." He has confirmed surgeries to treat neck and back pain he said came from throwing a 380-pound sumo wrestler at a birthday party. On Friday, a jury trial said Musk wasn't liable for tweeting in 2018 that he had secured funding to take Tesla private before funding was finalized. He said during that trial that "I had trouble sleeping last night, so unfortunately, I'm not at my best." His mother, Maye Musk, congratulated him on Twitter after the trial on Friday, saying: "Such a relief," and "Now catch up on sleep." $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ investors have worried about Musk being distracted by Twitter. Musk has dismissed those criticisms, saying he hasn't missed any important Tesla meetings and tweeting in November that "I still do a lot of work at Tesla!". He once joked on Saturday Night Live that he's not a "chill, normal dude, " and has said he goes to bed around 3 a.m. and sleeps six hours, the Journal reported. He slept on a Tesla factory floor in 2018 and is now sleeping at Twitter's San Francisco offices. Musk has previously said he plans to bring in another Twitter CEO "as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job!" after a December poll found 57.5% of more than 17.5 million votes said he should step down. He hasn't said when he would name his successor. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Nvidia and 5 Other Stocks at High Risk for Short Selling Stocks have rallied in recent months, with the S&P 500 gaining about 16% since its low point in October, but some of the market's best performers could now be at risk of short selling. The Federal Reserve has been lifting interest rates in order to cool record-high inflation by reducing economic demand. Now, inflation is declining and markets are optimistic the Fed could stop its rate hikes soon -- even if Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report throws some cold water on that narrative. Select stocks have soared during the rally, particularly those in the technology and cyclical, or economically-sensitive, sectors. Now, 22V Research has put together a list of candidates that could be shorted, or bet against. That happens when a trader borrows someone else's shares, immediately sells them, and buys them back usually within a six-month period to return them. The hope for the short seller is that the price goes down, making for a profitable trade. The firm screened for the top five performing stocks in each S&P 500 sector in the past month, many of which have also beaten the index since its October low. Many are "likely to see reversals in February," wrote 22V Research's Dennis DeBusschere. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  has gained 90% since the start of the rally. Its valuation, or multiple of next year's expected earnings per share, has risen to around 50 times from about 30 times at the start of the rally, making it vulnerable to potentially higher interest rates. The higher rates reduces the value of future profits -- and Nvidia is valued on the basis that a bulk of its profits will come many years in the future. Meanwhile, the stock's short interest is low -- only about 1.5% of the shares outstanding are shorted, according to S3 Partners, lower than the S&P 500's aggregate 2.4%. With potential downside, there is plenty of room to short it -- if anything goes wrong. The company's Feb. 22 earnings report could fail to live up to the stock's lofty price, for one. $Micron Technology(MU.US)$ is up about 20% since the rally and more than that since the stock's own low point in September. It trades at a growth-like multiple, at 23 times expected 2024 EPS, a few points above the S&P 500's multiple and up from the start of the rally. The company reports earnings in March, but there is room for short-sellers to come in, with short interest at 2.6%. $Nucor(NUE.US)$ stock is up 54%, but the steelmaker is highly economically sensitive, as it sells less -- and lower-priced -- steel when demand for steel-based products such as cars declines. Its short interest is at about 2.5% . $Steel Dynamics(STLD.US)$ has seen its stock gain 69%, with short interest at about 3%. Both of these steel companies have seen earnings per share estimates drop during the rally. $Diamondback Energy(FANG.US)$ is on the list. To be sure, it was flat during the October rally, but it is still up 26% from its September low point. Short interest is still only at about 3.9%, and the problem for oil companies is that the price of oil has dropped during the rally, and analysts expect EPS for most oil firms, including Diamondback, to drop in each of the next couple of years. $Marathon Petroleum(MPC.US)$ has seen its stock gain 40% from a September low point. Short interest is at just 2.5%. None of this necessarily means these stocks will get shorted, just that there is particularly high risk of that happening. Be careful with these names. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

I believe all of the tigers roughly know what is tiger coins. Tiger coins can be use to redeem limited merchandise, stock voucher and profile frames.   I had joined Tiger broker apps for almost 1 years, but I didnt know how to earn tiger coins at that time (the 1st 6month), I only use the daily sign in coins to predict the market rise or fall. After using tigers app for a period and meet a lot of friends (@koolgal  @HelenJanet  @LMSunshine  @Universe宇宙  @melson  @SR050321  @WanEH  @GoodLife99  @rL  @SirBahamut  @Fenger1188  @SPOT_ON  @Aqa and more) , I managed to get some tips on how to earn tiger coins.  By sign in everyday and doing the daily mission, you can earned about 50-100 coins per day, roughly 3000 per month. Joining the event or quiz and writing the articles post can earn extra tiger coins(if your post is good, you might have chance to get the editor pick and earn 200 tiger coins) . Beside that weekly predictions and 'predict market rise and fall' also can earn more tiger coins.  I mainly use my tiger coins to redeem the stock voucher especially HKD88 stock voucher or SGD30 stock voucher. Beside tiger coins, joining the event and activities organized by hardworking tiger staffs have chances to win special tiger gifts! Thanks to @TigerEvents  @CaptainTiger  @Tiger_SG  @Tiger_AU  @Tiger_NZ  @Tiger_chat  @TigerStars  I hope sharing this experience can help other new tigers to know more about tigers coins and the way to earn them.  

Tesla stock never stop! 🚀🚀🚀 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares are trading higher by 4.30% to $196.36 Friday morning following an increase in China sales. The Treasury also announced it is raising the price cap for EV tax credits to $80,000. Tesla delivered 66,051 cars in January, preliminary data released by the China Passenger Car Association showed. The tally, which includes both exports and domestic sales, marked a 10.4% year-over-year increase from the 59,845 vehicles the company sold in January of 2022. The U.S. Treasury Department updated the vehicle classification standard used to determine the applicable Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) limitation for clean vehicle tax credits available under the Inflation Reduction Act. On December 29, 2022, the Treasury says it published a notice of intent to propose regulations containing information for consumers and manufacturers in advance of the January 1, 2023, effective date of changes to the clean vehicle credit under section 30D of the tax code. The notice of intent provided an expected vehicle classification standard, based on existing EPA CAFE standards, for the purpose of determining whether the vehicle is a sedan, SUV, or other type of vehicle and subject to the $55,000 or $80,000 MSRP limitation. The Treasury says this change will allow crossover vehicles that share similar features to be treated consistently. The Treasury also says all vehicles that were eligible under the MSRP limitations prior to today's notice remain eligible under the updated standard. TSLA has a 52-week high of $384.29 and a 52-week low of $101.81. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

Apple CEO Tim Cook Says Layoffs Are Last Resort, But 'You Can Never Say Never' As many tech giants have been executing an unprecedented level of layoffs, $Apple(AAPL)$  has managed to avoid major job cuts even though it missed expectations for several of its lines of business announced during its first-quarter earnings. The iPhone maker announced its first quarterly revenue, which declined for the first time in nearly four years, with revenue of $117.2 billion that missed analyst expectations of $121.1 billion. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Apple CEO Tim Cook said there are ways to reduce costs, and that layoffs aren't the only answer. "I view layoffs as a last resort kind of thing," Cook said. "You can never say never. We want to manage costs in other ways to the degree that we can." Cook added that the company is managing costs very tightly and is curtailing hiring in certain areas while continuing to hire in others. With the present volatile economic condition, Apple has been cautious while managing its resources. The company added employees at a much slower clip than other tech companies during the pandemic. It also tends to run lean, with limited employee perks, and businesses focused on hardware products, reports WSJ. Apple's workforce grew by about 20% to approximately 164,000 full-time employees from its fiscal year-end in September 2019 to September 2022. Around the same period, the employee count at Amazon.com, Inc doubled, and Microsoft Corp's rose 53%. Meanwhile, Alphabet Inc and Meta Platform Inc saw their employee counts increase by 57% and 94%, respectively. According to the report, Apple has about 65,000 retail employees working in more than 500 stores, making up roughly 40% of the company's workforce. Apple's last leg of major layoffs occurred in 1997, when co-founder Steve Jobs returned to the company, which then cut costs by firing 4,100 employees. The Wall Street Journal quoted Tom Forte, senior research analyst at investment bank D.A. Davidson & Co., saying that "he expects Apple to reduce headcount, but it might do that quietly through employee attrition—by not replacing workers who leave." Earlier this year, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ announced another round of layoffs affecting 18,000 employees. In addition, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ has announced that it will let go of 10,000 employees, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  disclosed plans to cut 12,000 jobs. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion  

I been set target for myself at least one month finish reading one book since few years ago. So basically will Finish reading at least 12 books per year[Thinking]  Currently I am reading a book called IKIGAI, this book urges individuals to simplify their lives by pursuing what sparks joy for them. Made you understand more about yourself and appreciate things around us. This Japanese thinking or spirit is inspiring and I highly recommend it to all the tigers[Smart]  Beside that I read cookbooks too because I like to cook for my family! (Part of my interest /hobby, and cooking will released some of my stress & problems? make me feel relax). I will recommend cookbook written by famous local Singaporean Chef Sam leong. The recipe is simple and easy to follow (although some require technical skill). Overall I am happy with the end result and sharing the foods with family make me feel satisfied. [Happy]  @TigerStars @CaptainTiger  @TigerEvents  

Stocks Are at Wall Street's Year-end Target. It's Only Early February Nasdaq Composite surges 16% to start 2023 Just like last year, Wall Street strategists look pretty wrong about their expectations for stock-market performance in 2023. But this time around, they're in the unusual position of having been too pessimistic. Back in December, MarketWatch collected year-end price targets for the S&P 500 from 18 investment banks and brokerage houses. Instead of following the herd, their targets were unusual for their range, with some anticipating a further decline for stocks, but others forecasting a powerful rally. The average for the group pegged the S&P 500 at 4,031 by year's end. The S&P 500 finished Thursday's session above that level at 4,179, its highest close since Aug. 25, according to FactSet data. Several factors have played into its rebound since the beginning of the year. 'The January effect' There are a few different theories about what's driving the latest hot streak in U.S. stocks. One is the January effect. While stocks bottomed in October, the main indexes struggled to sustain their upward momentum in November and December. Although the $S&P 500(.SPX)$  barely eked out a Santa Claus Rally, the index finished the year down 19.4%, and many expected stocks to continue their downward trajectory in the first quarter of 2023. So far, that hasn't happened. Instead, stocks broke out of a rangebound funk and moved higher shortly after the new year arrived. Fundamentally, not much had changed for the market, except for the calendar, said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. "I think we've underestimated the January effect as an explanatory factor in what we've seen this month," Sosnick said. Many of last year's worst performers helped to lead the rebound, another sign that seasonal capital flows were at least helping to bolster the rally, Sosnick said. Some examples include $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , which was the second-best S&P 500 stock in January after falling roughly 65% last year, and $Carvana(CVNA.US)$, a troubled purveyor of cars that at one time had aspirations of being "the Amazon of used cars." Then there's also the $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ , which just notched its best month ever with a 27.8% gain in January. 'Goldilocks' As economists and market strategists like to point out, nothing substantial has changed about the fundamentals of the U.S. economy over the past few months. Still, investors are feeling more sanguine about the possibility that the U.S. economy may avoid a punishing recession as inflation dissipates. This notion has a name: "Goldilocks." Investors might be acting as if the U.S. economy will soon achieve this fairy-tale ideal, once again "Investors are increasingly pricing in a benign, even a Goldilocks, mix of peak inflation/rates, a shallow recession, a boost to global demand from China reopening, the dissipation of energy supply concerns, and lower volatility overall," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. In a Thursday research note, a team of strategists from ING defined the current Goldilocks scenario as one "where inflation can come down, but unemployment does not have to rise." Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset equity derivatives strategist at Nomura, defined it as "disinflation, but still resilient growth." It isn't completely unjustified. The consumer-price index shows inflation has been waning for six months since peaking at its highest level in 41 years over the summer. Data also show the U.S. labor market is still robust despite the Fed's most aggressive interest-rate hikes since the 1980s. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect this trend to have continue in December data, forecasting 187,000 new jobs were created, compared with 223,000 the month before. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has dropped to a 9-month low. Still, the Fed signaled on Wednesday that it's planning more interest rate hikes, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he doesn't expect to cut interest rates before the end of the year, something that the market has been hoping for. Some strategists expect stocks could swoon if the Fed ultimately disappoints. "The worst of the monetary headwinds are behind us," Sosnick said about the Fed's rate hikes. "It doesn't mean the monetary headwinds have ended yet." U.S. stocks added to their yearly gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 achieving its first "golden cross" in two-and-a-half years. The large-cap index gained 1.5% to roughly 4,179, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 3.3% to about 12,200. The $DJIA(.DJI)$  was the sole laggard of the major indexes, falling 0.1% to 34,053. @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion