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Initial Report Part 3: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

5.Advertising services - advertising campaigns on the platforms, which may display ads on the Kaspi.kz Super App to users through product searches, suggested products and banner ads. Two forms of ads - product ads and brand ads Product ads Brand ads   Source: Kaspi Q2 2024 Report Promotional periods such as Kaspi Juma, a 3 day national shopping festival (Kaspi's version of 9.9 / 10.10 / 11.11 in the context of Shopee or USA's Black Friday or China's Single Day) Kaspi Juma usually takes place twice a year, in the summer and the autumn, and allows consumers to purchase any goods from participating merchants via a buy-now-pay-later consumer finance product with interest-free instalments for up to 24 months. This will be changed to thrice a year from 2024 onwards to cater to the diff
Initial Report Part 3: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report: Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH), 35% 3-Year Potential Upside

Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MANH) deep dive:Company OverviewThe company designs, builds and delivers supply chain commerce solutions globally. The company offers products through direct sales personnel and partnership agreements with various organizations. The company operates in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Company’s revenue centers around three main buckets – supply chain, omnichannel commerce, and inventory management. 3 products – OMS, TMS, WMS. Customers include Walmart, Loreal, Nike, and Home Depot. Expertise in apparel-based businesses such as Under Armour, Lululemon, Adidas, and Crocs.Business ModelSoftwareSoftware LicenseIndustryManhattan has been recognized as a leader in the Warehouse Management System Gartner Magic Quadrant for t
Initial Report: Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH), 35% 3-Year Potential Upside

Initial Report(part2): Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), 121% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Javier CHAN)

4. PAYC Set-up (-30% YTD) PAYC stock is down -55% in the past twelve months. In 3Q23, the company missed guidance for the first time in history and provided weak guidance for 2024 sales and EBITDA. In 4Q23, they beat earnings and topline guidance was in line with the street, but margin guidance came up short of consensus, sparking another sell-off. Latest 2024 guidance implies 10-12% y/y revenue growth and a -370bps contraction in EBITDA margin. Weakness in sales growth stems from two issues: (1) revenue cannibalization from Beti adoption, and (2) weak client net-adds. While these issues have presented about a 10-15% headwind to prior sales expectations, these effects are likely temporary, and we should soon see an inflection point where PAYC returns to higher
Initial Report(part2): Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), 121% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Javier CHAN)

Initial Report(part1): Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), 121% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Javier CHAN)

1. Executive Summary I am initiating coverage on Paycom with a BUY recommendation and a 1Y target price of $258 (209% IRR). The setup for Paycom is interesting – the stock is down ~30% YTD, with negative overhang stemming from 2 main issues, (1) revenue cannibalization headwinds, as well as (2) weak client net adds. These issues have introduced uncertainty around Paycom’s future growth, and the street is treating these as structural problems with the business. However, I believe that these are merely temporary headwinds that will soon abate, and we are likely near an inflection point where we will see Paycom return to its structural growth story. 2. Company Overview Paycom Software, Inc. (“Paycom”) is a leading provider of comprehensive, cloud-based human
Initial Report(part1): Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), 121% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Javier CHAN)

Initial Report(part1): Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT), 71% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP, Sarah HENG)

Executive Summary 1.1. Introduction Fortinet is a cybersecurity company based in California and founded in 2000. Since then, it provides cybersecurity solutions for over 750,000 customers worldwide. I believe what makes Fortinet a good investment includes its products that are attractively-priced and effective, its integrated solutions that make cybersecurity management much easier, its potential through adapting to changes in the cybersecurity landscape alongside strong demand in the cybersecurity market. 1.2. Key Financials Fortinet has shown consistent improvement in its profitability margins. Its ROIC has also been improving consistently, meaning it has been able effectively invest for growth. However, its debt to equity ratio has been decreasing and became negative in 2023. Neverthele
Initial Report(part1): Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT), 71% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP, Sarah HENG)

Initial Report(part2): TSMC (TWSE:2330), 70% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Fabian VERA)

Business Model Foundry Model: Unlike integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) like Intel, TSMC operates on a pure-play foundry model. This means it manufactures chips designed by other companies. This model allows it to serve a wide range of customers, including some of the biggest names in the tech industry. Its efficacy as foundry vis-à-vis its competitors has been discussed in the section ‘Competitor Analysis’. Customers: TSMC’s clientele includes major technology companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, and many others. These companies rely on TSMC for their cutting-edge chip manufacturing capabilities. By serving its clients, the rhetorical question of ,,How effective is TSMC helping its clients?’ deserves an answer Fig. 6 – Multiple Valuation plot of TSMC and its clients, accomp
Initial Report(part2): TSMC (TWSE:2330), 70% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Fabian VERA)

Initial Report(Part1): TSMC (TWSE:2330), 70% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Fabian VERA)

Valuation Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) currently trades at ~FY2024 28.59x P/E, which is below to both the current industry average of 65x and the three-year industry average of 34.8x. Given that TSMC current valuation is below average in the cyclical industry of semiconductor foundry, a fair assessment would lead to an IRR of 2-11%, and by the compounding effect of time, leading to a three-year target price of NT$976.72 and a five-year target price of NT$1,591.31. As these high-floor prices are most likely to materialize due to Artificial Intelligence adoption and smartphone infiltration in society, it is right and just to dive into this rising tide that lifts all those technology boats. Company overview Established in 1987, TSMC was the world’s first dedicated semiconductor f
Initial Report(Part1): TSMC (TWSE:2330), 70% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Fabian VERA)

Initial Memo(Part2): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TPE:2330), 67% 5-Year Potential Upside (Calista CHEW, EIP)

TSMC Logo and symbol, meaning, history, PNG Competitor Analysis TSMC crafted and maintained its market position by focusing its business model solely on the production of semiconductors. However, the semiconductor industry is very segmented with fabless companies designing the chipsets and foundries manufacturing the final product. While some companies choose to become IDMs to design and manufacture their own chips, TSMC decided not to manufacture any products under its own name, so that the company never engages in direct competition with its customers. The competition in the semiconductor foundry industry is fierce as TSMC competes with other foundry service providers and some Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs). However, as chip designs grew increasingly complex, requiring specialize
Initial Memo(Part2): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TPE:2330), 67% 5-Year Potential Upside (Calista CHEW, EIP)

Initial Memo(Part1): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TPE:2330), 67% 5-Year Potential Upside (Calista CHEW, EIP)

TSMC Logo and symbol, meaning, history, PNG Company Overview Established in 1987 and headquartered in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) was the pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model. Led by Morris Chang who revolutionized the semiconductor industry, TSMC's adoption of the foundry business model has been instrumental in shaping the global fabless industry, solidifying its position as a leading semiconductor foundry by providing American chip companies with cost-effective manufacturing solutions. This model is distinguished by its exclusive focus on manufacturing its customers' products, abstaining from designing, manufacturing, or marketing any semiconductor products under its own name. This deliberate choice ensures that TSMC never en
Initial Memo(Part1): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TPE:2330), 67% 5-Year Potential Upside (Calista CHEW, EIP)

Initial Report(part2): Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), 52% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Olivia ZHANG)

2) Gross profit margin, growth rate   -- Divided by regional income -- US market: Due to strong consumption power and high product pricing, the gross profit margin has been stable at about 68% for a long time. International Market: In contrast, the average product pricing in the international market is lower, and the gross profit margin is only maintained in the range of more than 40%. From 2015 to 2020, especially in major markets such as Europe and South America, the gross profit margin has declined year by year, mainly because the overseas market is still in the growth stage, and the company has to increase some promotional subsidies to develop the market. Overall: Overall, the company's gross profit margin remains between 50% -60%. From 2021 to 2022, the compan
Initial Report(part2): Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), 52% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Olivia ZHANG)

Initial Report(part1): Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), 52% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Olivia ZHANG)

1. Company Overview: Monster Beverage Corporation, formerly known as Hansen, is a Holding Company headquartered in Crona, California. It develops, promotes, sells, and distributes energy drinks through its subsidiaries. In 2002, it launched the Monster energy drink series and began transitioning from juice soda to energy drinks. The revenue streams are primarily divided into four operating and reportable segments: 1) Monster Energy Drink (91.81%): primarily sells ready-to-drink packaged energy drinks (RTD) to bottlers and full-service beverage distributors. 2) Strategic Brands (5.27%): primarily generates net operating income from the sale of concentrate or beverage base to authorized bottled and canned partners for the brand series eg, NOS, Throttlee, etc., which were exchanged from Coca-
Initial Report(part1): Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), 52% 5-Year Potential Upside (VIP, Olivia ZHANG)

Initial Report(part 3): Waste Management (NYSE:WM), 20% 5-Year Potential Upside (EIP, Nicholas TAN)

Porter's Five Forces Competition Within The Industry - High With numerous large players and low switching costs, the competitive rivalry in the waste management/garbage industry is high. Bargaining Power Of Buyers - Moderate While individual customers may have limited bargaining power, larger commercial and municipal customers can negotiate contracts and prices based on volume. However, switching costs for customers can be high due to the specialised nature of waste management services. Thus, the bargaining power of buyers is moderate. Bargaining Power Of Suppliers - Moderate Suppliers providing necessary equipment and supplies to waste management companies establish substantial bargaining power due to their direct impact on the company’s operations. However, due to the dominant market pos
Initial Report(part 3): Waste Management (NYSE:WM), 20% 5-Year Potential Upside (EIP, Nicholas TAN)

Initial Report(part 2): Waste Management (NYSE:WM), 20% 5-Year Potential Upside (EIP, Nicholas TAN)

Sustainability & ESG Considerations Sustainability Strategy & Targets WM’s sustainability strategy is centred on three core ambitions: Material is repurposed Under this ambition, the Company seeks to reimage a circular economy. WM strives to operate innovative recycling and waste solutions that help fuel the continuous reuse of materials. Using 2021 as a baseline, WM sets a target to increase recovery of materials by 60% to 25 million tons per year by 2030, including an interim milestone of a 25% increase by 2025. Energy is renewable Under this ambition, WM aims to innovate for climate progress. The Company leverages advanced technologies to turn waste into energy that powers communities and reduces GHG emissions. It aims to reduce absolute Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions to 42% by 203
Initial Report(part 2): Waste Management (NYSE:WM), 20% 5-Year Potential Upside (EIP, Nicholas TAN)

Initial Report(part1): Pop Mart (HKSE)42.7% 1-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Calista CHEW)

Executive Summary Pop Mart International Group Limited is a company based in China that specializes in the design, development, and distribution of trendy and innovative toys, collectibles and lifestyle products. They are well-known for their blind box or blind bag products, where customers purchase sealed boxes without knowing the specific item inside, adding an element of surprise to the purchase. Popmart has gained popularity for collaborating with various artists and designers to create unique and visually appealing collectibles. Their products often feature cute or stylized characters, and they have successfully tapped into the global market with a focus on pop culture and art.Its business model revolves around the creation, distribution, and sale of blind box toys and collectibles. T
Initial Report(part1): Pop Mart (HKSE)42.7% 1-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Calista CHEW)

Initial Report: McKesson Corporation (MCK), -11% 3-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Amelia LEE)

Executive Summary Company Overview McKesson Corporation is a pharmaceutical wholesaler and distributor headquartered in the United States. Its main operations include sourcing and distributing branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to pharmacies, hospitals networks, and healthcare providers. Additionally, the company supplies medical-surgical products and equipment to healthcare facilities and provides a variety of technology solutions for pharmacies. “Advancing Health outcomes for All” is a commitment McKesson has made through its research and development, products and services along with its social initiatives. Business Segments The company operates its business in four reportable segments: U.S. Pharmaceutical, Prescription Technology Solutions (“RxTS), Medical-Surgical
Initial Report: McKesson Corporation (MCK), -11% 3-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Amelia LEE)

Initial Report(part7): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

By 2050, TotalEnergies would produce: About 50% of its energy is in the form of low-carbon electricity with the corresponding storage capacity totaling about 500 TWh/y, on the premise that it develops about 400 GW of renewable capacity, About 25% of its energy, equivalent to 50 Mt/y of decarbonized fuels in the forms of biogas, hydrogen, or synthetic liquid fuels from the circular reaction: H2 + CO2 e-fuels, About 1 Mb/d of oil and gas (about a quarter of the total in 2030, consistent with the decline envisaged in the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario), primarily liquefied natural gas (roughly 0.7 Mb/day, or 25- 30 Mt/y) with very low-cost oil accounting for the rest. Most of that oil would be used in the petrochemicals industry to produce about 10 Mt/y of polymers, of which two-thirds would come fr
Initial Report(part7): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

Initial Report(part6): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

otalEnergies, a Company Aiming at Revolutionizing the Energy Sector The energy transition is underway, but the world still uses fossil fuels to meet 81% of its energy needs. Therefore, to keep global warming to well below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, the world must drastically reduce its consumption of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and make the world energy system evolve by building the new low-carbon energy system at a much faster pace. Investing in two energy systems simultaneously is necessary to meet the challenge of the energy transition and still ensure that reliable energy is available in the short term at the lowest possible cost. Firstly, we must ensure the current system continues to operate responsibly, and at the same time speed efforts to build a new system centered
Initial Report(part6): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

Initial Report(part5): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

Lastly, we can analyze TotalEnergies’ share performance and expected performance. As per its forecasted EPS, figures are expected to grow at a rate of 8.70x in 2025, compared to a 5.83x rate in 2021. Similarly, the company’s dividends per share are also expected to increase, reaching 3.36x (vs 2.72x in 2021). As per cash flow per share, it is forecasted to grow by a 4.82-point basis, reaching 14.87x in 2025 compared to 2021. Lastly, the most notable increase relates to the book value per share. Indeed, the book value per share of a company indicates the performance of its stock relative to its market value. As TotalEnergies’ book value is expected to increase (54.87 in 2025 vs 36.64 in 2021), the stock is expected to be perceived as more valuable. Figure 16 Risks and Mitigation Risks Prote
Initial Report(part5): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

Initial Report(part4): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

5.2 Growth-Focused Strategic Acquisitions TotalEnergies has a strong history of acquiring and integrating companies to improve its core business offerings. The acquisitions have helped it both deepen and widen its capabilities and expertise, allowing the company to grow and improve its competitive advantage. Indeed, TotalEnergies announced a series of acquisitions of startups aimed at accelerating the development of its electricity business and supporting its ambition to achieve net zero by 2050. Each company participated in TotalEnergies’ On accelerator program, which is aimed at supporting the development of new companies in the electricity and renewable energy sector and targeting companies that offer solutions across the electricity value chain, focusing on digital solutions. The acqui
Initial Report(part4): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

Initial Report(part3): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

4.2.2 Critical Minerals Global clean energy investments crossed the US$1 trillion milestone in 2022, propelled by favorable policies and open trade of energy resources and critical minerals. This growth in renewable energy is driving a surge in demand for critical minerals, with lithium demand tripling between 2017 and 2022 and cobalt and nickel demand increasing by 70% and 40%, respectively, during the same period. However, as investments in renewables pick up pace, especially against the backdrop of a shifting geopolitical landscape, they heighten the reliance on these minerals and underscore the urgency to strengthen their ownership and supply chains. This imperative may be particularly notable for nations with ambitious clean energy targets and substantial import dependence. 4.2.3 Tech
Initial Report(part3): TotalEnergies (TTE) , 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP SEA, Claire CONTRI )

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