Key Takeaways Revenue rose 26% YoY to US$28.24B. Deliveries hit 480,126 units, up 25% YoY. Automotive gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3%. Operating margin dropped to 1.4%. CapEx reached US$5.79B, causing negative FCF of US$1.09B. 2026 CapEx will exceed US$25B. FSD paid users reached 1.48M. Robotaxi passed 380,000 unsupervised miles with no notable incidents. SpaceX gains added about US$1B to Tesla’s net income. TSLA fell around 4% after hours as investors focused on margins and cash flow. Tesla reported strong Q2 2026 revenue and record deliveries, but profit quality was much weaker. Revenue reached US$28.24B, up 26% YoY and above market estimates. Adjusted EPS came in at US$0.33, below the expected US$0.49. The result was clear: Tesla sold more cars, but earned less from each dollar of

Takeaways Q1 revenue rose 22%, while operating income grew 30%. Cloud revenue grew 63% and margin reached 32.9%. Search revenue rose 19%, with a lower traffic acquisition cost ratio. Q1 capex consumed 78% of operating cash flow. Forward P/E is about 24.6 times, while free cash flow yield is only 1.5%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reports second quarter results after the close on July 22. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $116.9 billion, up 21.3% year over year, with EPS of $2.90. That EPS will look much lower than the $5.11 reported in Q1. The comparison is misleading. Equity investment gains added $28.7 billion to Q1 net income and $2.35 to EPS. I would strip those gains out and concentrate on operating income, free cash flow and the gro

1. Retail investors are rewriting their own story Over the past year, U.S. retail investors have followed a virtually unchanging rule of thumb: buy on dips. However, the latest Retail Radar report released by JPMorgan on April 8 reveals a fundamental shift—retail investors have switched from a "buy on dips" strategy to a defensive stance of "sell on rallies and wait on dips". This is not a one-day anomaly, but a new behavioral pattern that has solidified over the past month. On a "bullish" trading day when oil prices recorded their largest single-day drop since 2020 and the VIX fell below 20, retail capital inflows not only failed to increase but remained at extremely low levels throughout the day—overall activity was at just the 1.2th percentile of the past year. A group that once reflexi

One of the most controversial names in the entire U.S. equity market—and a true outlier in the global data analytics and AI applications space $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ reported its Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 2. Overall, this was a report with very few real flaws to pick apart. Revenue, profitability, leading indicators, and forward guidance all came in above expectations. More importantly, growth re-accelerated in Q4, directly easing the market’s core concern that Palantir’s premium valuation depends on high growth that might be peaking. What’s intriguing, however, is the market’s reaction. The stock rose less than 8% post-earnings, noticeably below the 10%+ moves investors had grown accustomed to in recent quarters.

Macro Theme of the WeekThe minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting released this week show that internal divisions over the policy path have widened significantly. Although the Committee ultimately decided to cut rates in December, the number of dissenting voices reached a level rarely seen.Overall, the minutes had a limited impact on risk assets, serving mainly to reinforce the market’s prior view that rate cuts in Q1 2026 are unlikely.On one hand, most officials supported rate cuts as a precaution against potential weakness in the labor market. On the other hand, some argued for keeping rates unchanged for a period of time, and a small minority believed that conditions in December did not justify a rate cut at all.This internal divergence suggests that the Fed has yet to

Macro Highlights This WeekThe December FOMC delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut and announced roughly USD 40bn in short-term Treasury purchases to replenish system reserves. However, the market’s real focus was not the policy action itself, but Chair Powell’s rare admission that current job growth may be “systematically overstated.”The latest dot plot shows a sharply widened divergence in views on the 2026 rate path. While the median still points to one 25bp cut, the range now spans from no cuts to as much as 150bp of easing, highlighting a lack of consensus among policymakers on the economic outlook.At the corporate level, Oracle’s earnings triggered the market’s first broad-based concern over AI capex returns. Weak cloud revenue combined with sharply higher capital spending drove t

Macro HighlightsIn Japan, Governor Ueda successfully persuaded the Prime Minister to agree to a 25bp rate hike to 0.75% in December, marking the official end of Japan’s ultra-low interest rate era. With the potential retracement of the trillion-dollar yen carry trade, markets are concerned about spillover risks. However, since this coincides with the Fed’s pause in rate cuts, the impact is expected to be less severe than the 2022 year-end “carry trade plunge.”In the US, the Fed officially ended balance sheet reduction on Monday, signaling a key shift in liquidity direction. Markets widely expect the next FOMC to announce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, potentially starting $35B/month of short-term bond purchases from January, indicating a policy shift from “draining” to “injec

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Core inflation re-accelerated but with nuanceUS October core PCE rose 2.8% y/y – still above the Fed’s 2% target – yet the month-on-month pace eased. Services inflation, driven partly by surging portfolio-management fees tied to earlier equity gains, was the key driver.Fed policy path remains the biggest wildcardThe US economy shows resilience alongside hidden cracks. Markets are increasingly focused on the $6.7 tn of Treasuries maturing in 2025–2026 (≈25% of the outstanding marketable debt). Combined with potential expansionary fiscal policy under a second Trump administration, deficit concerns are rising. CICC estimates suggest meaningful deficit reduction will be difficult in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. Any shift in Treasury issuance mix could

Over the past 48 hours, one of the biggest stories in the entire AI sector has been the explosive move in Google-related assets. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ / $Alphabet(GOOG)$ shares ripped higher by more than 6% in regular trading and tacked on another ~2% after-hours on reports that Meta is in talks for a massive multi-billion-dollar TPU order. Meanwhile, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ barely budged — a stark contrast to what we usually see when AI hype hits.This isn’t being driven by a single headline. It’s the culmination of several developments that are forcing the market to completely re-price the cost stru

The memory sector's performance last week continued to polarize the market: bulls firmly believe HBM is ushering in a new profit cycle, while skeptics argue spot price gains for DRAM/NAND have clearly deviated from fundamentals, resembling the bubble phase seen in 2017–18.I lean toward the opposite of the latter view: Prices are indeed overheated, but the core drivers stem from genuine structural shifts in supply and demand, not speculation.How should I express it?DRAM spot prices rose 5% week-over-week (16Gb DDR4 surged 9% to $37.5), hitting a 25-year high; NAND spot prices climbed even more sharply, with 1Tb/512Gb/256Gb rising 15-22%. Despite thin trading volumes, supply shortages drove up inventory replenishment demand. NVIDIA's Oct-Q revenue reached $5.7 billion (Data Center: $5.1 bill