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goh63
2023-03-09
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2023-03-07
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2023-03-01
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2023-03-01
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2023-02-24
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2023-02-03
$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$
goh63
2022-04-08
Good
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goh63
2022-04-05
Kk
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goh63
2022-03-18
😔😔😔😔😔
rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?
goh63
2022-02-22
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goh63
2022-02-11
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16:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181924326","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it won't be able to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it won't be able to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181924326","content_text":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。与此同时，其预测显示，美联储官员预计今年将再加息6次，明年将加息3次。这是一场激进的加息运动，但也引出了一个问题：美联储能否在不严重损害经济的情况下取得成功？“美联储过于激进了”一些经济学家认为，美联储可能不会按预期行事，因为这可能会损害经济。据CNBC报道，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师James Paulsen表示，甚至在会议之前，债券市场就已经消化了7次加息，但许多经济学家曾预计，美联储只会加息5到6次：这在很大程度上已经被消化，但市场面临的更大问题是，我们是否会看到经济衰退。虽然经济学家没有明确预测经济会衰退，但他们确实看到经济增长放缓，而且自从俄罗斯的军事行动以来，前景变得更加不明朗。乌克兰危机也加剧了通胀，因为俄罗斯是主要的大宗商品生产国，而冲突和制裁引发了人们对石油、小麦和其他主要出口产品供应的怀疑。道富环球顾问首席分析师Simona Mocuta明确表示：“我认为美联储在这方面过于激进了。经济如何发展是高度不确定的。它们可能不会实现。但可以肯定的是，美联储传递了一个非常强烈的信息. ...我仍然怀疑是否会有这么多的加息次数。”经济学家们曾预计，美联储在首次加息时，会表现出鹰派或激进的态度。许多人曾认为美联储的决策滞后，因为美联储最初认为通胀是暂时的，而这种观点已经持续了太久。Mocuta表示，美联储可能会先加息几次，但在第三季度时应重新考虑加息的路径和经济状况。如果俄乌冲突有所改善，通胀和供应链方面的一些压力将会缓解。随着时间的推移，疫情带来的一些供应链压力也可能消退。大都会投资管理公司首席市场策略师Drew Matus表示：我想说的是，他们在发出他们需要发出的信号，但他们是否真的采取行动，这是一个悬而未决的问题。数据显示，美国2月份CPI跃升至7.9%的40年新高，预计3月份还会进一步上升。美联储预计，今年的核心通胀率将为4.1%，加息后明年将降至2.6%。他们还预测今年GDP将增长4%，到2023年将降至2.2%。预计失业率将降至3.5%，并将维持在这一水平。Matus认为：“他们的很多预测都是没有意义的...在逻辑上有一些漏洞。”他指出，其中一个漏洞是，如果美联储真的按照预期的速度升息，将无法实现这一经济预测。“他们是认真的”但其他人确实预计美联储会继续加息，一些华尔街人士预测今年将加息7次。美国银行美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：他们是认真的。他们在通胀方面真的远远落后于曲线。那些认为他们不能进行7次加息的人，将面临严重的打击。Grant Thornton的首席经济学家Diane Swonk认为，市场应该相信美联储的话：我们不能冒着滞胀的风险。他们承认，他们现在预计通胀会持续更长时间，而且这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题。看到市场的反应，他们显然不相信。这是美联储加息前景的重大转变。他们这么做是有原因的，不仅仅是美联储的某个人。这是整个美联储的系统性举措，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员也不例外。Swonk表示，美联储对失业率的预测可能不合理，但美联储确实希望给通胀降温。如果美联储官员按照预期的行动，就存在风险。她说：“当我模拟7次加息的情景时，也就是我的预测，我认为经济在下半年的平均增长将止步于1%。这是一次半硬着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097252282,"gmtCreate":1645488458809,"gmtModify":1676534031720,"author":{"id":"4103111140760420","authorId":"4103111140760420","name":"goh63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0495fffaedb295d4de28a966d5a78a49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103111140760420","authorIdStr":"4103111140760420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🤨","listText":"🤨","text":"🤨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097252282","repostId":"2213603512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092367013,"gmtCreate":1644539690360,"gmtModify":1676533938501,"author":{"id":"4103111140760420","authorId":"4103111140760420","name":"goh63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0495fffaedb295d4de28a966d5a78a49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103111140760420","authorIdStr":"4103111140760420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🎃","listText":"🎃","text":"🎃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092367013","repostId":"1148471486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9097252282,"gmtCreate":1645488458809,"gmtModify":1676534031720,"author":{"id":"4103111140760420","authorId":"4103111140760420","name":"goh63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0495fffaedb295d4de28a966d5a78a49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103111140760420","authorIdStr":"4103111140760420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🤨","listText":"🤨","text":"🤨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097252282","repostId":"2213603512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092367013,"gmtCreate":1644539690360,"gmtModify":1676533938501,"author":{"id":"4103111140760420","authorId":"4103111140760420","name":"goh63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0495fffaedb295d4de28a966d5a78a49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103111140760420","authorIdStr":"4103111140760420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🎃","listText":"🎃","text":"🎃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092367013","repostId":"1148471486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949319759,"gmtCreate":1678358095772,"gmtModify":1678358098811,"author":{"id":"4103111140760420","authorId":"4103111140760420","name":"goh63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0495fffaedb295d4de28a966d5a78a49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103111140760420","authorIdStr":"4103111140760420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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