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54oo_

54oo_

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02-05

$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$

2023-10-27

$皇冠(5HT.SI)$

2023-03-06

[害羞]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-02

[流泪]

鲍威尔：考虑再加息约两次后暂停，今年降息不合适，金融状况收紧需时间

2023-02-02

[流泪]

“木头姐”大回血：ARKK 1月暴涨27.8%，创历史最佳月度表现

2023-01-27

[鬼脸]

Intel, Chevron, Visa, BuzzFeed And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch

2023-01-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [得意]

2023-01-16

yes lor

2023-01-15

funny[得意]

2023-01-15

ney

2023-01-15

neat

2023-01-14

[龇牙]

2023-01-13

Nice

2023-01-12

[得意]

2023-01-11

[惊讶]

2023-01-10

[得意]

2023-01-10

sigh[流泪]

2023-01-09

nice

2023-01-08

nice

2023-01-07

Yeah

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07:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔：考虑再加息约两次后暂停，今年降息不合适，金融状况收紧需时间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139522843","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。鲍威尔强调，鉴于经济状况，预计今年不会降息。他说，当前美国经济所处的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。</blockquote><p>2月1日周三，在美联储公布最新利率决议后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开记者会。</p><p><b>鲍威尔说，FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。他说，政策制定者并不认为现在是暂停加息的时候。</b></p><p><b>关于这里的“几次”指的是多少次加息，彭博社解读认为，并非每个人都会认为是两次，但该媒体认为基本上可以确定是再加息两次，即在3月和5月的FOMC会议上继续以25个基点的幅度分别加息一次，这将令联邦基金利率上升至5%至5.25%的区间，达到12月时美联储的预期利率峰值水平。</b></p><p>市场普遍预计3月美联储将继续加息25个基点，但鲍威尔强调，他对5月FOMC会议不抱任何确定性。关于3月的点阵图，他认为，可能高于12月，也可能更低，具体取决于数据，美联储3月FOMC会议将更新加息路径评估，美联储将留意从现在到三月的数据。</p><p><b>鲍威尔表示，他和他的FOMC同事们做出的预测表明，今年降息是不合适。</b>他表示：</p><blockquote>鉴于我们预期的经济前景，我认为我们今年不会降息。</blockquote><p>不过他补充称，如果通胀下降得更快，那么这将影响政策决策。在通胀问题上，鲍威尔表示：</p><blockquote>我们将在宣布抗通胀取得胜利上采取谨慎态度，我们正处于反通胀的早期阶段，取得胜利需要时间。</blockquote><p>继续加息是适当的，当前利率水平距利率峰值不远</p><p>在记者会上，对去年一年的加息行动，鲍威尔总结说，美联储采取了有力的行动。</p><p>展望未来，他说，将需要在一段时期内维持货币政策对美国经济的的限制性，<b>美联储继续预期持续的加息是适当的，以达到充分的限制性立场。他强调，当前美联储制定的利率还没有达到足够限制性的政策立场。</b></p><p>他继续强烈承诺将实现2%通胀目标。他强调，物价稳定是经济的基础，当前的通胀水平远高于美联储的目标，美联储官员们仍然需要付出更多努力，美联储将坚持到底，直到工作完成。他说，现在宣布胜利还为时过早：</p><blockquote>我们的预期是，通胀需要一定时间才能回落，我们需要耐心，因此将需要在更长时间内保持较高的利率。</blockquote><p>他对美国经济软着陆依然有信心：</p><blockquote>我认为通胀可以回落到2%，而不会出现真正严重的经济衰退。</blockquote><p>关于市场对于美联储未来加息路径的讨论，<b>他说，美联储官员们花了很多时间讨论利率政策的未来路径，但还没有就本轮加息周期的利率峰值是多少做出决定，但他相信当前的利率水平已经距离利率峰值不远了。</b></p><p>和前几次记者会一样，鲍威尔再次重申，历史告诫不要过早放松政策，美联储不希望通货膨胀卷土重来，很难管理加息不够带来的风险。鲍威尔说：</p><blockquote>我不希望在停止加息后的6个月或12个月后，美联储才迫不得已得出结论：今年在降低通货膨胀方面做得不够，将不得不再次提高利率。</blockquote><p>但他也强调，美联储没有动力也不想过度收紧利率，但如果美联储真的过度收紧，该机构依然有工具来解决这个问题。</p><p><b>他说，放慢加息节奏可以让FOMC评估进展。对于未来的加息进程，鲍威尔说，将在逐个会议上做出决定。</b></p><p><b>对于市场关注的政策滞后性，鲍威尔回应称，需要一段时间才能充分看到紧缩政策的效果，这些滞后性影响了今天FOMC加息25个基点的决定。</b>鲍威尔说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来，但重要的是，市场确实反映了美联储正在实施的紧缩政策。不过，<b>他也说，如果需要调整加息幅度至12月以前的力度（即每次加息75个基点），美联储将那样做。</b></p><p>通胀预期稳定令人安心，通胀放缓进程已经开始</p><p>关于通胀，鲍威尔说，市场预计通胀下降速度比美联储预期的更快，但是他强调，不知道通胀进一步放缓是否会“艰难”。如果通胀下降速度真的比美联储预期的快，这将影响美联储的政策决策。就目前的状况来看，美国三个月期（季度性）核心PCE通胀指标相当低，季度性通胀放缓是可喜的，但这一趋势是否可以延续，美联储需要更多证据。</p><p>鲍威尔对美联储控制通胀的行动似乎很有信心，他说：</p><blockquote>美国有望陷入超低通胀，这将让人感到心满意足。</blockquote><p>他也强调，好的一点是，市场对长期通胀的预期保持稳定：</p><blockquote>通胀预期似乎很稳定，这令人安心。</blockquote><p>鲍威尔说，可能需要将通胀增速降低至低于长期趋势的经济增长速度。他说，美联储敏锐地意识到高通胀会带来困难，将高度关注通胀带来的双向风险。他说，随着通货膨胀回落的证据越来越多，这将随着时间的推移反映在政策中。</p><p>关于美联储对抗通胀的行动，鲍威尔认为，预计通胀将继续在住房服务领域上升，然后下降。但在不包括住房的核心服务业中，还没有看到超低通胀现象，服务业通胀的核心仍在4%左右，不过美联储预计核心服务业将很快出现超低通胀现象。</p><p><b>和前几次记者会不同的是，鲍威尔首次强调了加息带来的通缩风险。</b>他说，通缩压力已经浮现，特别是在商品方面，美联储注意到房地产市场即将出现通货紧缩。他说：</p><blockquote>我们现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。</blockquote><p>美国经济当前所处的周期独一无二</p><p>关于美国的经济状况，鲍威尔说，去年经济增长明显放缓，消费者支出似乎受到抑制，房地产活动继续疲软。</p><p><b>关于美国当前所处的经济周期，他说，当前的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。他预测美国经济增长将继续保持温和。</b></p><p>他强调，全球经济形势有所改善，这对美国很重要。</p><p>关于美国国会是否会提高债务上限，鲍威尔说，关于债务上限的讨论仍在继续，美联储将仔细监测货币市场状况：</p><blockquote>我相信国会会提高债务上限，这是必须的。</blockquote><p>鲍威尔认为，通胀下降的趋势必须在整个美国经济中铺开。他强调，不要假设美联储可以在发生债务违约时保护经济。</p><p>鲍威尔还说，新冠疫情在美国经济中影响不再重大。</p><p>美联储密切关注金融状况，金融状况收紧需要时间</p><p>关于市场关注的金融市场的状况，鲍威尔认为，自去年12月以来，金融状况基本保持不变，美联储也在一直仔细监控金融状况。</p><p><b>鲍威尔强调，美联储现在关注的重点不是金融状况的短期变化，而是侧重于金融条件的持续变化，在制定政策时，美联储将考虑金融状况和其他条件。</b></p><p>鲍威尔说，金融状况收紧将需要时间，需要耐心。</p><p>鲍威尔说，去年金融状况收紧非常严重。但他似乎并没有对最近金融市场变得宽松作出评论。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e207d92f00fd25d372217cc8daa89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔的此番表态被市场做了鸽派解读，在鲍威尔就金融市场状况表态后，美国股市、黄金上涨，美债收益率下行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23929968e05b7811623571bc0446d58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef9b697f1432afc1602eb96cafd2cb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9dbead1045aa1b53ad50b77b4a3874\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>劳动力市场依然极度紧张</p><p>关于美国的劳动力市场，鲍威尔说，劳动力市场仍然“极度紧张”，工资增速提高，就业增长势头强劲，劳动力需求依然大幅超过供给。</p><p>他强调劳动力市场降温对于控制通胀的重要性：</p><blockquote>总的来看，如果劳动力市场没有达到更好的平衡，我个人的观点是，通胀率不会持续回到2%。</blockquote><p>具体拆分来看，鲍威尔说，美联储看到工资增速在下降，但是JOLTs报告中的职位空缺数字一直相当不稳定。尽管劳动力成本指数ECI和平均时薪已经脱离高点，但仍然相当高。他说，到目前为止，美联储的紧缩政策并没有以劳动力市场为代价，这是一件好事。</p><p>鲍威尔说，美联储还将关注下一份ECI报告，昨天的数据显示工资下降，具有建设性。</p><p>鲍威尔说，一旦能观察到工资—价格螺旋上升，就太晚了，美联储不能允许这种情况发生，当前，美联储没有看到工资—价格螺旋上升的迹象。</p><p>关于失业率，鲍威尔说，大多数政策制定者预测失业率可能会略有上升。</p><p>市场反应</p><p>利率互换市场的交易员得出的结论是，政策方向将从今年年中开始进一步转向鸽派。交易员们预计，到2023年年底，美联储将较6月利率峰值降息50个基点。交易员们认为，今年6月美国政策利率将达到峰值，隔夜拆借利率为4.9%；到今年12月，这一利率将下降至4.4%。</p><p>对于下一次即3月召开的美联储FOMC议息会议，目前市场仅定价21个基点的加息溢价，这表明市场认为美联储将再加息25个基点的可能性为 84%。除此之外，市场认为美联储在5月份再次加息的前景已经下降。</p><p>标普500指数一度上涨1.3%，道指转涨，纳指一度上涨2.2%。</p><p>尾盘时美股集体转涨至日高，道指最高涨近250点或涨0.7%，此前一度跌超500点或跌超1.5%，短暂失守3.4万点整数位。标普500指数最高涨1.8%并升破4100点，此前跌1%且能源板块领跌。纳指最高涨2.8%，此前跌0.7%。罗素小盘股最高涨2.3%，此前跌0.5%。</p><p>美国10年期国债收益率跌约12个基点，刷新日低至3.3819%；两年期美债收益率一度跌超10个基点，刷新日低至4.0981%；2/10年期美债收益率利差在利率决议声明发布后迅速跌至日低-76.226个基点，目前反弹至-71.000个基点上方，日内整体跌幅收窄至不足1.6个基点。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔：考虑再加息约两次后暂停，今年降息不合适，金融状况收紧需时间</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：考虑再加息约两次后暂停，今年降息不合适，金融状况收紧需时间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-02 07:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680974><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。鲍威尔强调，鉴于经济状况，预计今年不会降息。他说，当前美国经济所处的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680974\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139522843","content_text":"摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。鲍威尔强调，鉴于经济状况，预计今年不会降息。他说，当前美国经济所处的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。2月1日周三，在美联储公布最新利率决议后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开记者会。鲍威尔说，FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。他说，政策制定者并不认为现在是暂停加息的时候。关于这里的“几次”指的是多少次加息，彭博社解读认为，并非每个人都会认为是两次，但该媒体认为基本上可以确定是再加息两次，即在3月和5月的FOMC会议上继续以25个基点的幅度分别加息一次，这将令联邦基金利率上升至5%至5.25%的区间，达到12月时美联储的预期利率峰值水平。市场普遍预计3月美联储将继续加息25个基点，但鲍威尔强调，他对5月FOMC会议不抱任何确定性。关于3月的点阵图，他认为，可能高于12月，也可能更低，具体取决于数据，美联储3月FOMC会议将更新加息路径评估，美联储将留意从现在到三月的数据。鲍威尔表示，他和他的FOMC同事们做出的预测表明，今年降息是不合适。他表示：鉴于我们预期的经济前景，我认为我们今年不会降息。不过他补充称，如果通胀下降得更快，那么这将影响政策决策。在通胀问题上，鲍威尔表示：我们将在宣布抗通胀取得胜利上采取谨慎态度，我们正处于反通胀的早期阶段，取得胜利需要时间。继续加息是适当的，当前利率水平距利率峰值不远在记者会上，对去年一年的加息行动，鲍威尔总结说，美联储采取了有力的行动。展望未来，他说，将需要在一段时期内维持货币政策对美国经济的的限制性，美联储继续预期持续的加息是适当的，以达到充分的限制性立场。他强调，当前美联储制定的利率还没有达到足够限制性的政策立场。他继续强烈承诺将实现2%通胀目标。他强调，物价稳定是经济的基础，当前的通胀水平远高于美联储的目标，美联储官员们仍然需要付出更多努力，美联储将坚持到底，直到工作完成。他说，现在宣布胜利还为时过早：我们的预期是，通胀需要一定时间才能回落，我们需要耐心，因此将需要在更长时间内保持较高的利率。他对美国经济软着陆依然有信心：我认为通胀可以回落到2%，而不会出现真正严重的经济衰退。关于市场对于美联储未来加息路径的讨论，他说，美联储官员们花了很多时间讨论利率政策的未来路径，但还没有就本轮加息周期的利率峰值是多少做出决定，但他相信当前的利率水平已经距离利率峰值不远了。和前几次记者会一样，鲍威尔再次重申，历史告诫不要过早放松政策，美联储不希望通货膨胀卷土重来，很难管理加息不够带来的风险。鲍威尔说：我不希望在停止加息后的6个月或12个月后，美联储才迫不得已得出结论：今年在降低通货膨胀方面做得不够，将不得不再次提高利率。但他也强调，美联储没有动力也不想过度收紧利率，但如果美联储真的过度收紧，该机构依然有工具来解决这个问题。他说，放慢加息节奏可以让FOMC评估进展。对于未来的加息进程，鲍威尔说，将在逐个会议上做出决定。对于市场关注的政策滞后性，鲍威尔回应称，需要一段时间才能充分看到紧缩政策的效果，这些滞后性影响了今天FOMC加息25个基点的决定。鲍威尔说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来，但重要的是，市场确实反映了美联储正在实施的紧缩政策。不过，他也说，如果需要调整加息幅度至12月以前的力度（即每次加息75个基点），美联储将那样做。通胀预期稳定令人安心，通胀放缓进程已经开始关于通胀，鲍威尔说，市场预计通胀下降速度比美联储预期的更快，但是他强调，不知道通胀进一步放缓是否会“艰难”。如果通胀下降速度真的比美联储预期的快，这将影响美联储的政策决策。就目前的状况来看，美国三个月期（季度性）核心PCE通胀指标相当低，季度性通胀放缓是可喜的，但这一趋势是否可以延续，美联储需要更多证据。鲍威尔对美联储控制通胀的行动似乎很有信心，他说：美国有望陷入超低通胀，这将让人感到心满意足。他也强调，好的一点是，市场对长期通胀的预期保持稳定：通胀预期似乎很稳定，这令人安心。鲍威尔说，可能需要将通胀增速降低至低于长期趋势的经济增长速度。他说，美联储敏锐地意识到高通胀会带来困难，将高度关注通胀带来的双向风险。他说，随着通货膨胀回落的证据越来越多，这将随着时间的推移反映在政策中。关于美联储对抗通胀的行动，鲍威尔认为，预计通胀将继续在住房服务领域上升，然后下降。但在不包括住房的核心服务业中，还没有看到超低通胀现象，服务业通胀的核心仍在4%左右，不过美联储预计核心服务业将很快出现超低通胀现象。和前几次记者会不同的是，鲍威尔首次强调了加息带来的通缩风险。他说，通缩压力已经浮现，特别是在商品方面，美联储注意到房地产市场即将出现通货紧缩。他说：我们现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。美国经济当前所处的周期独一无二关于美国的经济状况，鲍威尔说，去年经济增长明显放缓，消费者支出似乎受到抑制，房地产活动继续疲软。关于美国当前所处的经济周期，他说，当前的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。他预测美国经济增长将继续保持温和。他强调，全球经济形势有所改善，这对美国很重要。关于美国国会是否会提高债务上限，鲍威尔说，关于债务上限的讨论仍在继续，美联储将仔细监测货币市场状况：我相信国会会提高债务上限，这是必须的。鲍威尔认为，通胀下降的趋势必须在整个美国经济中铺开。他强调，不要假设美联储可以在发生债务违约时保护经济。鲍威尔还说，新冠疫情在美国经济中影响不再重大。美联储密切关注金融状况，金融状况收紧需要时间关于市场关注的金融市场的状况，鲍威尔认为，自去年12月以来，金融状况基本保持不变，美联储也在一直仔细监控金融状况。鲍威尔强调，美联储现在关注的重点不是金融状况的短期变化，而是侧重于金融条件的持续变化，在制定政策时，美联储将考虑金融状况和其他条件。鲍威尔说，金融状况收紧将需要时间，需要耐心。鲍威尔说，去年金融状况收紧非常严重。但他似乎并没有对最近金融市场变得宽松作出评论。鲍威尔的此番表态被市场做了鸽派解读，在鲍威尔就金融市场状况表态后，美国股市、黄金上涨，美债收益率下行。劳动力市场依然极度紧张关于美国的劳动力市场，鲍威尔说，劳动力市场仍然“极度紧张”，工资增速提高，就业增长势头强劲，劳动力需求依然大幅超过供给。他强调劳动力市场降温对于控制通胀的重要性：总的来看，如果劳动力市场没有达到更好的平衡，我个人的观点是，通胀率不会持续回到2%。具体拆分来看，鲍威尔说，美联储看到工资增速在下降，但是JOLTs报告中的职位空缺数字一直相当不稳定。尽管劳动力成本指数ECI和平均时薪已经脱离高点，但仍然相当高。他说，到目前为止，美联储的紧缩政策并没有以劳动力市场为代价，这是一件好事。鲍威尔说，美联储还将关注下一份ECI报告，昨天的数据显示工资下降，具有建设性。鲍威尔说，一旦能观察到工资—价格螺旋上升，就太晚了，美联储不能允许这种情况发生，当前，美联储没有看到工资—价格螺旋上升的迹象。关于失业率，鲍威尔说，大多数政策制定者预测失业率可能会略有上升。市场反应利率互换市场的交易员得出的结论是，政策方向将从今年年中开始进一步转向鸽派。交易员们预计，到2023年年底，美联储将较6月利率峰值降息50个基点。交易员们认为，今年6月美国政策利率将达到峰值，隔夜拆借利率为4.9%；到今年12月，这一利率将下降至4.4%。对于下一次即3月召开的美联储FOMC议息会议，目前市场仅定价21个基点的加息溢价，这表明市场认为美联储将再加息25个基点的可能性为 84%。除此之外，市场认为美联储在5月份再次加息的前景已经下降。标普500指数一度上涨1.3%，道指转涨，纳指一度上涨2.2%。尾盘时美股集体转涨至日高，道指最高涨近250点或涨0.7%，此前一度跌超500点或跌超1.5%，短暂失守3.4万点整数位。标普500指数最高涨1.8%并升破4100点，此前跌1%且能源板块领跌。纳指最高涨2.8%，此前跌0.7%。罗素小盘股最高涨2.3%，此前跌0.5%。美国10年期国债收益率跌约12个基点，刷新日低至3.3819%；两年期美债收益率一度跌超10个基点，刷新日低至4.0981%；2/10年期美债收益率利差在利率决议声明发布后迅速跌至日低-76.226个基点，目前反弹至-71.000个基点上方，日内整体跌幅收窄至不足1.6个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955158255,"gmtCreate":1675295602577,"gmtModify":1676538990246,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106048906582030","authorIdStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955158255","repostId":"2308726057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308726057","pubTimestamp":1675295438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2308726057?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 07:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”大回血：ARKK 1月暴涨27.8%，创历史最佳月度表现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308726057","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。</blockquote><p>随着美国科技股在1月的强劲反弹，“木头姐”Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金也“大回血”，创下有史以来的最佳月度表现。</p><p>根据道琼斯市场数据，Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>（ARKK）在1月份累计上涨达27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。</p><p>在2020年，美国科技股受益于新冠疫情带来的居家办公和学习浪潮，ARKK在当年飙涨了近150%。随着美联储从2021年开始考虑Taper，尤其是去年美联储开始激进加息以来，不断提高的利率令科技公司估值下降，科技股最先受到打击，ARKK的投资策略也遭到波及，ARKK在2021年和2022年分别下跌了21%和67%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bb19e68d53ab5d955a20abaca1cf54\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>今年以来，美债收益率开始回落，市场也普遍预期美联储将进一步放缓加息脚步，此外，投资者不相信美联储真的会落实维持利率在5%以上一段时间的计划，交易员们押注美联储将在年内开始降息。</p><p>美债收益率在1月份大幅下行。2年期和5年期国债收益率分别下行22个基点和37个基点。10年期美债收益率也从去年10月4.2%的峰值回落至3.49%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/339d561af834045964365a2ae1c50075\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这是自2020年3月（美联储在疫情期间实施干预措施的高峰）以来，5年期美债收益率出现的第二大月度降幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe059733e60730ad473fd43fcdd465b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>前不久，Wood在季度投资者研讨会上说：</p><blockquote><b>我们很高兴看到债券收益率开始下降。</b></blockquote><blockquote>如果去年利率上升对成长型股票造成不成比例伤害的逻辑逆转了，那么未来现金流的折现价值应该会上升。</blockquote><blockquote>就像在1980年代初期一样，股市需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。</blockquote><p>Wood曾一再警告称，美联储突然加息可能引发一段时期的通缩，并表示，<b>到2023年年中，通胀率可能降至3%或更低。</b></p><blockquote>我认为美联储即将结束这一紧缩举措。</blockquote><p>1月纳斯达克综合指数为累计上涨10.7%，创2001年以来的最佳1月份表现，并刷新去年7月来最大月度涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180e00989326614d76f66b198186237a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wood青睐的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在1月表现抢眼，在去年创历史最差表现的特斯拉，在1月斩获44%的涨幅。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”大回血：ARKK 1月暴涨27.8%，创历史最佳月度表现</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”大回血：ARKK 1月暴涨27.8%，创历史最佳月度表现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-02 07:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680964><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。随着美国科技股在1月的强劲反弹，“木头姐”Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金也“大回血”，创下有史以来的最佳月度表现。根据道琼斯市场数据，Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680964\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdcf7fb84fcd8462e772a725a35e3d36","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680964","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308726057","content_text":"在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。随着美国科技股在1月的强劲反弹，“木头姐”Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金也“大回血”，创下有史以来的最佳月度表现。根据道琼斯市场数据，Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF（ARKK）在1月份累计上涨达27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。在2020年，美国科技股受益于新冠疫情带来的居家办公和学习浪潮，ARKK在当年飙涨了近150%。随着美联储从2021年开始考虑Taper，尤其是去年美联储开始激进加息以来，不断提高的利率令科技公司估值下降，科技股最先受到打击，ARKK的投资策略也遭到波及，ARKK在2021年和2022年分别下跌了21%和67%。今年以来，美债收益率开始回落，市场也普遍预期美联储将进一步放缓加息脚步，此外，投资者不相信美联储真的会落实维持利率在5%以上一段时间的计划，交易员们押注美联储将在年内开始降息。美债收益率在1月份大幅下行。2年期和5年期国债收益率分别下行22个基点和37个基点。10年期美债收益率也从去年10月4.2%的峰值回落至3.49%。这是自2020年3月（美联储在疫情期间实施干预措施的高峰）以来，5年期美债收益率出现的第二大月度降幅。前不久，Wood在季度投资者研讨会上说：我们很高兴看到债券收益率开始下降。如果去年利率上升对成长型股票造成不成比例伤害的逻辑逆转了，那么未来现金流的折现价值应该会上升。就像在1980年代初期一样，股市需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。Wood曾一再警告称，美联储突然加息可能引发一段时期的通缩，并表示，到2023年年中，通胀率可能降至3%或更低。我认为美联储即将结束这一紧缩举措。1月纳斯达克综合指数为累计上涨10.7%，创2001年以来的最佳1月份表现，并刷新去年7月来最大月度涨幅。Wood青睐的特斯拉在1月表现抢眼，在去年创历史最差表现的特斯拉，在1月斩获44%的涨幅。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952565631,"gmtCreate":1674829243924,"gmtModify":1676538961150,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106048906582030","authorIdStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952565631","repostId":"1142142923","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142142923","pubTimestamp":1674812059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142142923?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-27 17:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel, Chevron, Visa, BuzzFeed And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142142923","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading mostly lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading mostly lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b>American Express Company</b> to post quarterly earnings at $2.22 per share on revenue of $14.22 billion before the opening bell.</li><li><b>Visa Inc.</b> reported better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter. Visa shares rose over 1% in premarket trading.</li><li>Analysts are expecting <b>Chevron Corporation</b> to have earned $4.38 per share on revenue of $54.63 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Intel Corporation</b> reported weaker-than-expected results for its fourth quarter and issued soft guidance. Intel shares dropped over 10% in premarket trading.</li><li>Analysts expect <b>Charter Communications, Inc.</b> to post quarterly earnings at $8.79 per share on revenue of $13.72 billion before the opening bell. </li><li>Meta was paying <b>BuzzFeed</b> millions of dollars to bring more creators to Facebook and Instagram. Moreover, it would use ChatGPT creator OpenAI for its content. Stocks continued to rise over 20% in premarket trading and gained over 160% in 2 days.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel, Chevron, Visa, BuzzFeed And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel, Chevron, Visa, BuzzFeed And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-27 17:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/01/30598996/american-express-intel-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-friday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With US stock futures trading mostly lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Wall Street expects American Express Company to post quarterly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/01/30598996/american-express-intel-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-friday\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa","CHTR":"特许通讯","INTC":"英特尔","AXP":"美国运通","CVX":"雪佛龙","BZFD":"Buzzfeed"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/01/30598996/american-express-intel-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-friday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142142923","content_text":"With US stock futures trading mostly lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Wall Street expects American Express Company to post quarterly earnings at $2.22 per share on revenue of $14.22 billion before the opening bell.Visa Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter. Visa shares rose over 1% in premarket trading.Analysts are expecting Chevron Corporation to have earned $4.38 per share on revenue of $54.63 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open.Intel Corporation reported weaker-than-expected results for its fourth quarter and issued soft guidance. Intel shares dropped over 10% in premarket trading.Analysts expect Charter Communications, Inc. to post quarterly earnings at $8.79 per share on revenue of $13.72 billion before the opening bell. Meta was paying BuzzFeed millions of dollars to bring more creators to Facebook and Instagram. Moreover, it would use ChatGPT creator OpenAI for its content. Stocks continued to rise over 20% in premarket trading and gained over 160% in 2 days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952022680,"gmtCreate":1674274904741,"gmtModify":1676538935043,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106048906582030","authorIdStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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21:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎点评：强美元之下，英镑、日元、欧元谁更“惨”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106991391","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天主要讨论一个问题，在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。</p><p>美元指数DXY是一个落后的指数，这个指数从诞生开始，指数里面的成分和权重就没有变化过。指数后面最大的3个成分是欧元57.6%，日元13.6%和英镑11.9%，这3个货币占比82%。道琼斯指数30只股票，从诞生之初调整多次，目前30只股票和第一版的30只股票已经完全不一样，但即使这样现在看道琼斯指数的人也不多了。搞不懂为何美元指数DXY后面的机构ICE却懒得在指数上花资源，这个指数稍微做点推广，会有很多产品可以搞。</p><p>下面三个图，分别是美国对欧洲、对日本和对英国的贸易，时间从2000-2021年。蓝柱代表美国对那个地区的出口，橙柱代表美国从那个地区的进口，灰色线代表进口+出口，黄线代表美国对那个地区的贸易顺差逆差。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>中国海关的数据喜欢说“进口+出口”（上图灰线），美国特别是川普时期喜欢强调的数字是“顺差/逆差”（上图黄线），其实这两个数字都很重要。“进口+出口”衡量的是两个经济体之间的紧密程度，数字越大代表两个经济体绑定得越紧；“顺差/逆差”衡量的是某个经济体相对于另一个经济体的强弱地位。</p><p>过去20年，这三个国家/地区和美国的贸易的活跃程度，欧盟+100%，日本+0%，英国+50%。而美国相对于全世界的贸易活跃程度（下图）是增加了+130%。这就说明，<b>这3个国家/地区和美国的经济活跃程度，在过去20年全部在下降。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>活跃程度下降得最大的是美日经贸，过去20年原地踏步；而美英的经贸关系中，进出口几乎平衡，也就是说英国在和美国贸易往来中，是赚不到美元的。这两个国家的货币，在强势美元的背景下会非常难受。日本因为长期和美国的交易中，处于顺差地位，所以日本央行的外汇储备远远高于英国，证明短期日元是有防御能力的关键是日本央行的态度。下图是日本央行和英国央行的外汇储备，日本的外储（红线）是英国（绿线）的9倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>英镑&lt;日元&lt;&lt;欧元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎点评：强美元之下，英镑、日元、欧元谁更“惨”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎点评：强美元之下，英镑、日元、欧元谁更“惨”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-27 21:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>今天主要讨论一个问题，在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。</p><p>美元指数DXY是一个落后的指数，这个指数从诞生开始，指数里面的成分和权重就没有变化过。指数后面最大的3个成分是欧元57.6%，日元13.6%和英镑11.9%，这3个货币占比82%。道琼斯指数30只股票，从诞生之初调整多次，目前30只股票和第一版的30只股票已经完全不一样，但即使这样现在看道琼斯指数的人也不多了。搞不懂为何美元指数DXY后面的机构ICE却懒得在指数上花资源，这个指数稍微做点推广，会有很多产品可以搞。</p><p>下面三个图，分别是美国对欧洲、对日本和对英国的贸易，时间从2000-2021年。蓝柱代表美国对那个地区的出口，橙柱代表美国从那个地区的进口，灰色线代表进口+出口，黄线代表美国对那个地区的贸易顺差逆差。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>中国海关的数据喜欢说“进口+出口”（上图灰线），美国特别是川普时期喜欢强调的数字是“顺差/逆差”（上图黄线），其实这两个数字都很重要。“进口+出口”衡量的是两个经济体之间的紧密程度，数字越大代表两个经济体绑定得越紧；“顺差/逆差”衡量的是某个经济体相对于另一个经济体的强弱地位。</p><p>过去20年，这三个国家/地区和美国的贸易的活跃程度，欧盟+100%，日本+0%，英国+50%。而美国相对于全世界的贸易活跃程度（下图）是增加了+130%。这就说明，<b>这3个国家/地区和美国的经济活跃程度，在过去20年全部在下降。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>活跃程度下降得最大的是美日经贸，过去20年原地踏步；而美英的经贸关系中，进出口几乎平衡，也就是说英国在和美国贸易往来中，是赚不到美元的。这两个国家的货币，在强势美元的背景下会非常难受。日本因为长期和美国的交易中，处于顺差地位，所以日本央行的外汇储备远远高于英国，证明短期日元是有防御能力的关键是日本央行的态度。下图是日本央行和英国央行的外汇储备，日本的外储（红线）是英国（绿线）的9倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>英镑&lt;日元&lt;&lt;欧元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106991391","content_text":"今天主要讨论一个问题，在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。美元指数DXY是一个落后的指数，这个指数从诞生开始，指数里面的成分和权重就没有变化过。指数后面最大的3个成分是欧元57.6%，日元13.6%和英镑11.9%，这3个货币占比82%。道琼斯指数30只股票，从诞生之初调整多次，目前30只股票和第一版的30只股票已经完全不一样，但即使这样现在看道琼斯指数的人也不多了。搞不懂为何美元指数DXY后面的机构ICE却懒得在指数上花资源，这个指数稍微做点推广，会有很多产品可以搞。下面三个图，分别是美国对欧洲、对日本和对英国的贸易，时间从2000-2021年。蓝柱代表美国对那个地区的出口，橙柱代表美国从那个地区的进口，灰色线代表进口+出口，黄线代表美国对那个地区的贸易顺差逆差。中国海关的数据喜欢说“进口+出口”（上图灰线），美国特别是川普时期喜欢强调的数字是“顺差/逆差”（上图黄线），其实这两个数字都很重要。“进口+出口”衡量的是两个经济体之间的紧密程度，数字越大代表两个经济体绑定得越紧；“顺差/逆差”衡量的是某个经济体相对于另一个经济体的强弱地位。过去20年，这三个国家/地区和美国的贸易的活跃程度，欧盟+100%，日本+0%，英国+50%。而美国相对于全世界的贸易活跃程度（下图）是增加了+130%。这就说明，这3个国家/地区和美国的经济活跃程度，在过去20年全部在下降。活跃程度下降得最大的是美日经贸，过去20年原地踏步；而美英的经贸关系中，进出口几乎平衡，也就是说英国在和美国贸易往来中，是赚不到美元的。这两个国家的货币，在强势美元的背景下会非常难受。日本因为长期和美国的交易中，处于顺差地位，所以日本央行的外汇储备远远高于英国，证明短期日元是有防御能力的关键是日本央行的态度。下图是日本央行和英国央行的外汇储备，日本的外储（红线）是英国（绿线）的9倍。英镑<日元<<欧元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910846043,"gmtCreate":1663601294682,"gmtModify":1676537299428,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910846043","repostId":"1164103449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164103449","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1663585741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164103449?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 19:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储本轮加息终点，已有投行看到5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164103449","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。德意志银行，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”激进成为焦点。该行的美国经济学家Matt Luzzetti 表示，美联储在2023年一季度结束加息，届时美国联邦基准利率将达到4.9%，接近5%！</p><p>美联储将在当地时间9月20-21日举行议息会议。在会议前夕公布的美国通胀数据再一次超预期，市场已经完全接受了美联储本轮加息周期的终点利率为4%的“激进观点”。然而，投行们在情绪极端脆弱的时候，再给市场浇冷水。</p><p>在上一轮美联储加息周期，最终的利率停留在 2.25%-2.5%，如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的预测成真，那么本轮美联储加息的幅度就是上一次的两倍，而且在一年以内完成。上周，桥水基金创始人达里奥表示，如果美联储将利率提高到4.5%，美股还得再跌20%。</p><p>现在，由于美联储加息，对金融市场更广泛的影响。一年期美债收益率已经在上周达到 4.004%，高于4%。美国房贷利率已经达到6%，达到2008年以来的最高水平。</p><p>德意志银行在报告中解释称，接近5%的加息终点利率的前提条件是“预计美国的通胀在较高水平停留更长的时间”。Matt Luzzetti 进一步解释称，在以往所有的紧缩周期中，美联储经常会将联邦基准利率提高至高于通胀的水平，不管通胀水平是高还是低。</p><p>Matt Luzzetti 对媒体表示，美联储现在需要更加严厉的政策，真实利率或者称经通胀调整后的利率必须为正。现在，美联储官员不能依靠预测“让通胀随着时间下降”，他们必须做点什么让利率高于通胀，至少在明年初做到这一点。</p><p>但是，德意志银行并不认为，接近5%的利率会在美国持续很久。</p><p>美股近期的士气受到超预期通胀数据的打压。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>公司（FedEx）的盈利警告进一步加深了弥漫市场的悲观情绪。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>首席美国经济学家Carl Riccadonna认为，这符合他的观点，即美国经济正在“大幅减速”。</p><p>德意志银行并不是第一次发表悲观看法。今年4月，德意志银行第一家称美国经济衰退的华尔街大银行。就在同一个月，它更进一步地说，看到了符合其悲观假设的下行风险。6月份，该行宏观策略师Tim Wessel表示，看到了通胀无法减速的可能性。就在三天前，该行研究分析师Henry Allen表示，当谈到美国经济能否实现软着陆的辩论时，“悲观主义者将不幸获胜”。</p><p>不巧的是，越来越多的投行加入德意志银行。</p><p>上周五，荷兰金融服务公司荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）称，对利率高于预期的前景再次表示担忧。该行策略师Philip Marey表示，预计明年美国联邦基金利率将达到5%的峰值，高于此前预测的4.5%，因为持续的通货膨胀和已经开始的工资与价格螺旋上升。荷兰合作银行还表示，预计美联储不会在2024年前改变其利率立场，即2023年美联储不会开启降息。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储本轮加息终点，已有投行看到5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储本轮加息终点，已有投行看到5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 19:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”激进成为焦点。该行的美国经济学家Matt Luzzetti 表示，美联储在2023年一季度结束加息，届时美国联邦基准利率将达到4.9%，接近5%！</p><p>美联储将在当地时间9月20-21日举行议息会议。在会议前夕公布的美国通胀数据再一次超预期，市场已经完全接受了美联储本轮加息周期的终点利率为4%的“激进观点”。然而，投行们在情绪极端脆弱的时候，再给市场浇冷水。</p><p>在上一轮美联储加息周期，最终的利率停留在 2.25%-2.5%，如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的预测成真，那么本轮美联储加息的幅度就是上一次的两倍，而且在一年以内完成。上周，桥水基金创始人达里奥表示，如果美联储将利率提高到4.5%，美股还得再跌20%。</p><p>现在，由于美联储加息，对金融市场更广泛的影响。一年期美债收益率已经在上周达到 4.004%，高于4%。美国房贷利率已经达到6%，达到2008年以来的最高水平。</p><p>德意志银行在报告中解释称，接近5%的加息终点利率的前提条件是“预计美国的通胀在较高水平停留更长的时间”。Matt Luzzetti 进一步解释称，在以往所有的紧缩周期中，美联储经常会将联邦基准利率提高至高于通胀的水平，不管通胀水平是高还是低。</p><p>Matt Luzzetti 对媒体表示，美联储现在需要更加严厉的政策，真实利率或者称经通胀调整后的利率必须为正。现在，美联储官员不能依靠预测“让通胀随着时间下降”，他们必须做点什么让利率高于通胀，至少在明年初做到这一点。</p><p>但是，德意志银行并不认为，接近5%的利率会在美国持续很久。</p><p>美股近期的士气受到超预期通胀数据的打压。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>公司（FedEx）的盈利警告进一步加深了弥漫市场的悲观情绪。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>首席美国经济学家Carl Riccadonna认为，这符合他的观点，即美国经济正在“大幅减速”。</p><p>德意志银行并不是第一次发表悲观看法。今年4月，德意志银行第一家称美国经济衰退的华尔街大银行。就在同一个月，它更进一步地说，看到了符合其悲观假设的下行风险。6月份，该行宏观策略师Tim Wessel表示，看到了通胀无法减速的可能性。就在三天前，该行研究分析师Henry Allen表示，当谈到美国经济能否实现软着陆的辩论时，“悲观主义者将不幸获胜”。</p><p>不巧的是，越来越多的投行加入德意志银行。</p><p>上周五，荷兰金融服务公司荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）称，对利率高于预期的前景再次表示担忧。该行策略师Philip Marey表示，预计明年美国联邦基金利率将达到5%的峰值，高于此前预测的4.5%，因为持续的通货膨胀和已经开始的工资与价格螺旋上升。荷兰合作银行还表示，预计美联储不会在2024年前改变其利率立场，即2023年美联储不会开启降息。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164103449","content_text":"美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。德意志银行，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”激进成为焦点。该行的美国经济学家Matt Luzzetti 表示，美联储在2023年一季度结束加息，届时美国联邦基准利率将达到4.9%，接近5%！美联储将在当地时间9月20-21日举行议息会议。在会议前夕公布的美国通胀数据再一次超预期，市场已经完全接受了美联储本轮加息周期的终点利率为4%的“激进观点”。然而，投行们在情绪极端脆弱的时候，再给市场浇冷水。在上一轮美联储加息周期，最终的利率停留在 2.25%-2.5%，如果德意志银行的预测成真，那么本轮美联储加息的幅度就是上一次的两倍，而且在一年以内完成。上周，桥水基金创始人达里奥表示，如果美联储将利率提高到4.5%，美股还得再跌20%。现在，由于美联储加息，对金融市场更广泛的影响。一年期美债收益率已经在上周达到 4.004%，高于4%。美国房贷利率已经达到6%，达到2008年以来的最高水平。德意志银行在报告中解释称，接近5%的加息终点利率的前提条件是“预计美国的通胀在较高水平停留更长的时间”。Matt Luzzetti 进一步解释称，在以往所有的紧缩周期中，美联储经常会将联邦基准利率提高至高于通胀的水平，不管通胀水平是高还是低。Matt Luzzetti 对媒体表示，美联储现在需要更加严厉的政策，真实利率或者称经通胀调整后的利率必须为正。现在，美联储官员不能依靠预测“让通胀随着时间下降”，他们必须做点什么让利率高于通胀，至少在明年初做到这一点。但是，德意志银行并不认为，接近5%的利率会在美国持续很久。美股近期的士气受到超预期通胀数据的打压。联邦快递公司（FedEx）的盈利警告进一步加深了弥漫市场的悲观情绪。法国巴黎银行首席美国经济学家Carl Riccadonna认为，这符合他的观点，即美国经济正在“大幅减速”。德意志银行并不是第一次发表悲观看法。今年4月，德意志银行第一家称美国经济衰退的华尔街大银行。就在同一个月，它更进一步地说，看到了符合其悲观假设的下行风险。6月份，该行宏观策略师Tim Wessel表示，看到了通胀无法减速的可能性。就在三天前，该行研究分析师Henry Allen表示，当谈到美国经济能否实现软着陆的辩论时，“悲观主义者将不幸获胜”。不巧的是，越来越多的投行加入德意志银行。上周五，荷兰金融服务公司荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）称，对利率高于预期的前景再次表示担忧。该行策略师Philip 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