Oil matters to inflation more than almost any other single commodity because it touches everything. Transport costs more, manufacturing costs more, even your electricity bill costs more, because an oil price move flows through to nearly every other price in the economy. Brent oil funds is also the top performer on this entire list, which tells you how large this year’s Middle East supply shock has actually been. The risk cuts both ways. The same headline risk that took this up 104% can reverse just as fast if there is real de-escalation, and futures funds bleed a little to the roll from month to month even when the price goes nowhere. Commodities used to mean opening a separate futures account. Futures are leveraged, and they come with quirks like contango and backwardation, where near-ter

Oil matters to inflation more than almost any other single commodity because it touches everything. Transport costs more, manufacturing costs more, even your electricity bill costs more, because an oil price move flows through to nearly every other price in the economy. BNO is also the top performer on this entire list, which tells you how large this year’s Middle East supply shock has actually been. The risk cuts both ways. The same headline risk that took this up 104% can reverse just as fast if there is real de-escalation, and futures funds bleed a little to the roll from month to month even when the price goes nowhere. Commodities usedlike oil  to mean opening a separate futures account. Futures are leveraged, and they come with quirks like contango and backwardation, where near-t

The rise of AI poses a threat to software stocks. A powerful enough AI can customise a company’s software, or at least call into question the value of standardised software that costs more than an AI subscription and doesn’t fully suit a business’s operating needs. Some companies may switch to AI to disintermediate software altogether, which would mean less revenue for software companies. But the reality is that most software stocks are still reporting revenue growth. That’s because the stock market is forward looking, and prices in the future impact on software fundamentals well in advance. That said, investors may have gotten too pessimistic on software and too optimistic on AI. In July, overleveraged AI bets got unwound and software stocks soared. The proxy VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH

Nvidia expects $108b in Q3 revenue and projects FY28 revenue to grow about 70%. Management explicitly said customer forecasts point to demand that could support roughly doubling again next year, but it’s guiding to only about 70% growth because it doesn’t currently have enough supply to satisfy all that demand. The largest company in the world by market cap, already $5.5T, shouldn’t be growing like a young company. But that’s exactly what Nvidia is doing. It has boomed for three years running, and in the latest quarter, revenue grew 106% and earnings jumped 126%. These are numbers you’d expect from a young, fast growing company, not a megacap. Yet here we are. It’s earnings season, and investors are watching AI-related stocks closely, trying to figure out if the AI trade is alive or dying.

Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move huge volumes of data fast enough for the AI era. Its overall revenue rose 86% to $29.6b, but AI semiconductor revenue exploded 221% to $16.7b. Hock Tan, President and CEO of Broadcom, said, “In Q4 the momentum continues, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $21.7 billion, up 236% year over year.” But in FY28, Broadcom isn’t expecting 200% growth anymore in AI semiconductor revenue. Revenue is projected to hit $230b, up from an estimated $115b in FY27. Still, that’s 100% growth. The stock still fell, though. Expectations were even higher. Broadcom guided Q4 revenue to $34.8b, but LSEG consensus was about $35.03b,

For the longest time, Microsoft lumped its cloud business unit Azure together with other businesses like GitHub, Security Copilot and healthcare cloud revenue. That made it hard for investors to know how fast Azure was really growing. Not anymore. Microsoft has finally decided to report Azure separately. Revenue for the June quarter was up 42% YoY, from US$20.7b to US$29.4b. FY2026 Azure revenue came in at US$101.9b, up 40% from US$72.6b. Quarterly Azure revenue accelerated from US$22.4b to $24.1b to $26.0b to $29.4b through FY26. Azure isn’t merely large, growth actually accelerated into Q4 despite the increasingly bigger base. Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move hu

Based on the latest futures market, the probability of a rate hike in September 2026 has dropped to 34.7%, down from more than 50% just a week ago. No rate hike is good news for AI capex. Companies like Alphabet are issuing new bonds to fund their expansion, and a hike would have raised their cost of funds, squeezed profits, and possibly delayed plans to borrow more and expand faster to meet demand. That worry is off the table for now, at least for the next two months, so they can carry on. Commodity prices are one thing worth watching. Not just oil, but copper, corn, and other raw materials that go into whatever we produce. They tend to lead the inflation numbers rather than follow them. The prolonged Iran War sparked fears that inflation would come roaring back. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Many investors assume a new high means the market is expensive and due for a fall. It’s the opposite. Markets hit new highs because they’re bullish, and a new high can be broken many times in a single year. A new high isn’t a ceiling. It’s proof the market has the energy to keep breaking through. You can see the track record of S&P 500 making numerous new highs in the past years. Look at new highs versus new lows on the NYSE (not the S&P 500). We’re seeing more highs than lows, and that’s strength, not weakness. In a bear market, new lows outnumber new highs. And if valuations were truly overstretched, we’d see new highs spike far above new lows, the way they did in February, just before the Iran War AI trades corrected heavily over the last two months, and that flushed out a lot o

The reality is there are plenty of other cybersecurity stocks out there, and one of them doesn’t compete head on with these three market leaders at all. Instead, it focuses on vulnerability detection. Think of vulnerability detection as hiring a highly trained security inspector to walk around your house every single day with a clipboard, aggressively checking for weaknesses before a burglar finds them. In an AI era where hacking grows more powerful by the month, and AI use keeps proliferating, vulnerability detection only becomes more important. Companies and organizations need to find their own weak points before malicious actors using AI find them first. The takeaway for the market was blunt. AI powered hacking had arrived, and established cybersecurity business models suddenly looked o

Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is the next Chinese name to make a splash in Western media. It ranks alongside the frontier models from Claude and ChatGPT, and that alone is a feat. The naysayers say it was achieved through distillation and the like. Maybe. But if it were that easy, every lab would be doing it and every model would be frontier class.Being frontier is one thing. Cost is another. Claude is known to be expensive. ChatGPT has managed to bring its costs down. Kimi K3 still comes in more than 50% cheaper than ChatGPT. As good as the West, at a fraction of the price. For cost conscious users, that is reason enough to switch.It also remains a few years behind its U.S. and Korean peers technologically. Strict export controls mean it cannot easily acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography equip

SpaceX is a lottery ticket kind of stock. It defies almost every principle of sound fundamental investing. First, the valuation is always a stretch. Same story with Tesla, priced wildly above its competitors. I accept that a market leader deserves a premium, but the gap suggests something more than that. There is an Elon Musk premium embedded in the share price, and it is substantial. Second, much of what you are buying sits in the future. Colonising Mars or the Moon, data centres in space, humanoid robots. None of it is commercialised. Yet it is priced today as though it already is. That is not valuation. That is buying into a vision. So if you want to invest in Musk’s companies, you cannot use the conventional lens. Which is exactly why these stocks are so divisive. On one side, the nays

SpaceX’s fall has dragged the rest of the space sector down with it. A handful of these names are down more than 20%. No surprise there.With both stocks sliding, Musk has lost his trillionaire status. Over $300 billion gone in about a month. That is more than the entire net worth of second placed Larry Page. It wasn’t just SpaceX. Tesla fell hard after earnings and is now down 29% year to date. The culprit was negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in Q2 2026, as Tesla spends big on AI, on top of robotaxi and Optimus. Investors have turned sensitive towards heavy capex spenders, and Tesla has just joined that group. The selling is consistent with how the market is treating everyoneSpaceX closed at $201.80 on 16 June 2026. It has since tumbled 43% to $115.07, which also puts it 15% below

Today, Warren Buffett is one of the richest people in the world - a $149 billion net worth. He built that fortune by compounding Berkshire Hathaway at a 19.9% rate a year for the last 60 years. That’s nearly double the return of the S&P 500 Index.Warren Buffett was doing what most people aren’t doing today: Value investing. And Buffett's secret to achieving such enormous gains was to pick companies that could greatly grow their earnings without spending much additional capital. For most of his career, he had a mentor, a coach and a close friend, Charlie Munger whom he could bounce ideas off of (yes, having a mentor and partners are important). Together, they looked for wonderful stock ideas to accumulate. Think about the big entrepreneurs on Forbes who sold software, ran furniture comp

DeepSeek shook the semiconductor industry and the stock market with the release of its R1 reasoning model. R1 matched top-tier models like OpenAI’s o1, yet it was reportedly trained for a fraction of the cost, around $6 million.The good news is that AI stocks recovered, and then some. They surged to record highs as Western models kept improving and held their lead, quashing fears that cheaper Chinese models could catch up. For a while, that justified the massive capital expenditure the West had committed to. Most AI models are judged on how well they answer a question, write a Python script, or pass an exam. Chip design is a different beast. It is a gruelling, multi-step engineering process. By completing all of it autonomously over 48 hours with no human intervention, Impressive as it is,

For the past month, the market has been whispering that the AI trade is done. Memory stocks took the brunt of it, on the belief that chip prices had peaked. Their share prices fell hard. Alphabet’s guidance says otherwise. Higher capex and a shortage of AI cloud compute mean the spending cycle is still running. Alphabet has stopped its share buyback because it needs the cash for AI, while it continues to issue stock to raise funds and to reward employees with options. Share count is up 1.2% in six months. That is dilution, and it is new. Previously the buybacks more than offset the issuance. On top of that, Alphabet took on $19.1B of mandatory convertible preferred shares and $56.2B of debt. And the fundraising is not ending soon. Roughly $106B of securities are expected to be issued over

Oil prices rose and the energy sector did well as a result. For years the AI trade has lifted technology, and just this past month we saw financials and healthcare take their turn. So there is no single sector that wins forever. But there is always at least one sector that is working. That is the basis for a rotation strategy. You move capital into the sectors that are doing well, or that you expect to do well. The method varies. It can be driven by macro, by fundamentals, or by momentum. Sector rotation is the established idea. Factor rotation is the newer cousin, and many investors are not even familiar with factors to begin with.Factors are characteristics of stocks with evidence of outperformance. Value, quality, momentum, size and low volatility are the foremost ones. Factors rotate t

will AI AI stocks will crash. ?  It’s just a matter of time, though no one knows exactly when, or how much higher they’ll climb before gravity catches up. That makes them poor long-term holdings Let’s take a break from AI stocks, especially since we’re starting to see a sector rotation underway. We might be better off looking for investment ideas built for the long haul. The difference is that you buy AI stocks because they are moving fast. You buy long-term stocks because they last. Many investors conflate the two and get into trouble.example beats McDonald’s. It’s a place where parents bring their kids, and one day those kids bring their own. It’s intergenerational and never goes out of style. Compare that to a fashion label tagged to an older generation and shunned by the next. Thi

$FoundationHealth(FHH.SI)$  is going up can buy now 

Property developers and cyclical industries have continued to face significant headwinds despite favourable long-term themes. China’s property sector remains under pressure from weak housing demand, financing constraints, and skepticism over a sustained recovery, weighing on developers such as Longfor Group. Meanwhile, electric vehicle and renewable energy companies, including BYD, BYD Electronic, Li Auto, and Xinyi Solar, have corrected amid price wars, slowing growth, margin pressure, and industry overcapacity. Commodity producers such as Zijin Mining, CMOC, and Chalco have fared relatively better due to long-term demand for critical minerals, but their shares have also pulled back as investors took profits and reacted to concerns over global economic growth and commodity price volatilit

These AI stocks have rallied so hard that they are now hypersensitive to any whiff of weaker demand. The moment demand looks shaky, the selloff follows.Investors are trimming AI exposure, not abandoning the thesis. I don’t think this is 2000 all over again, yet. Once the deleveraging plays out, these stocks should stabilize. And frankly, after nine straight weeks of gains and multi bagger moves packed into a short stretch, a breather was overdue. It’s just that the breather can look like a sharp, ugly pullback, the kind most investors aren’t prepared for. The key reason I’m not sounding the alarm is that fundamentals still look solid and supply is still tight. But this is a spot worth watching. Hyperscalers have poured billions into building capacity. If we’re at the point where exces