jfsrevg
jfsrevg
Full Time Trader, Co-Funded LP
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avatarjfsrevg
11-15 09:08

Missed Opportunities and Current Portfolio Focus

Not much to do since 11th Nov, unless you grabbed $ProShares UltraShort Gold(GLL)$ or $ $United States Natural Gas Fund LP(UNG)$ on the commodities side. Craved for opening week action and attempted $Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares(ERX)$ and $Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares(RETL)$ on Monday but was all stopped out. Even $ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.(ZIM)$ current high RVOL breakout from my watchlist doesn’t appeal to me due to its loose price action.Gutted about missing $Netflix(NFLX)$ and
Missed Opportunities and Current Portfolio Focus
avatarjfsrevg
11-15 09:03

17 Growth Stocks in Consolidation

17 Growth Stocks in Consolidation
avatarjfsrevg
11-14 10:40

$ACVA is emerging as a momentum stock

$ACV Auctions Inc.(ACVA)$ - Post Earnings Update (+373% EPS YoY, +44% Sales YoY), From the Strongest Sector, $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ I was waiting for a clean high RVOL attempt to break $21.15 pre-earnings since the last post, but the price retraced to the highlighted consolidation range. Post earnings, the price gapped out of this range and is now just below $21.30, showing reduced rate of change in price action over the last two sessions. This is a bullish flag price action behavior. This is a strong name fundamentally, and ACV Auctions is emerging as a momentum stock, increasing its ADR from 2.9% to 3.7% in under 3 weeks. I’ve set a price alert at $21.31, though I’d prefer
$ACVA is emerging as a momentum stock
avatarjfsrevg
11-14 10:38

$PENN - Watchlist Name from the Strongest 1-Month Sector

$Penn Ent(PENN)$ - Watchlist Name from the Strongest 1-Month Sector, $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ PENN Entertainment has been so beaten down that its all-time high of $140 from 2021 barely fits the chart, as I wanted to highlight the significance of its recent 200-MA reclaim. The stock is currently within a 6-month ascending triangle pattern (a trend reversal chart pattern). Despite reaching a 9-month high yesterday, there’s still an unfilled gap up to $22.25.A potential hypothesis for this bottom could be the past two quarters of YoY EPS and sales growth. Do revisit this with $22.25 price alert set.Image
$PENN - Watchlist Name from the Strongest 1-Month Sector
avatarjfsrevg
11-14 10:35

$PSNL - I have been waiting for that RVOL entry

$Personalis(PSNL)$ (RS-99, ADR 8.12%) - Post Earnings Update (+41% Sales Growth YoY), Reclaim of Post-Earnings Gap Down in 3 Sessions Personalis, Inc. remains on my watchlist as I have been waiting for that RVOL entry. I'm now more inclined to consider future participation given the swift reclaim of its post-earnings gap down. Need to highlight the liquidity of this is name is barely at $4mil/d 750k shares/d on 50 days average. You certainly need high RVOL entry to reduce the widen spread cost. Last week earnings reveal +41% (+21% beat) YoY Sales Growth.Image
$PSNL - I have been waiting for that RVOL entry
avatarjfsrevg
11-14 10:31

Further Reduction of R Loss Per Trade

I have lots of consideration about this 'end of day' manual stop loss idea when I come across MisterLowRisk sharing it a few months. Here's an additional tactic I’d apply if I were in the U.S. or Europe, though time zone constraints prevent me from doing it:I would close any position with an unrealized loss right before the market closes (i.e., if it’s trading below the entry price, especially when that entry was based on a range breakout). If the trade hasn’t shown traction by day’s end, this approach can give an edge by further reducing R loss. It’s best done near the end of the day to allow the full day range to play out—since a last-hour rally could lift the position if it's below the average price earlier in the day.One downside you need to accept is re-entering an idea on higher entr
Further Reduction of R Loss Per Trade
avatarjfsrevg
11-13 08:31

Understanding the Infeasibility of '1% Risk to Equity' and Benefits of High ADR% Securities

I’d like to clarify why aiming for a 1% risk-to-equity ratio is often unrealistic due to position sizing constraints. I’ll also compare lower ADR% products, like $SPDR S&P Retail ETF(XRT)$ at 1.41% ADR, with higher ADR% products, like $Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares(RETL)$ at 4.06% ADR (a 3x leverage of XRT, sharing the same price structure on intraday timeframes).In the example below, I simulate an entry price and stop-loss price based on XRT and RETL high and low range and automate the calculation of position size % required for a “1% risk” approach relative to account equity (excluding existing unrealized gains/losses of other positions).Using a 1% risk model, you would need to allocate almost
Understanding the Infeasibility of '1% Risk to Equity' and Benefits of High ADR% Securities
avatarjfsrevg
11-13 08:27

6 types of action on the day immediately on the day of post earnings report

I actually don't think this is true. If you study all the triple digit % earnings/revenue beat, there are 6 types of action on the day immediately on the day of post earnings report.1. gap up, trade higher to close (this is ideal, but not often the case)2. gap up, trade lower to close (this is stop loss killer if it claim ORH intraday)3. gap down, trade higher to close (this is the sort I can see an edge if there's a intraday overblown sell off)4. gap down, trade lower to close5. gap up, close within intraday range (this can be a stop loss killer)6. gap down, close within intraday range What happens a few days post ER after volatility settles down is another type of setup, another type of trade. I do agree this can better control risk, and size appropriately. This earnings, there are 173
6 types of action on the day immediately on the day of post earnings report
avatarjfsrevg
11-12

$SPY: Hold, Don't Rush New Trades

I rarely gain nett profit traction with new positions when $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is at such point we are now;1. 4.6 x ATR% to 50-MA at vs 6 (Yellow Dots)2. 5% Historical % Extension from 50-MA3. 1-Month Nett New High vs New LowAvoid being quick to pull the trigger this week, manage what you already have.Image65% isn't extended but we are already on track to 80% historical extensionImagea hunch for the quote of this week; If you don't sell into strength, you'll end up selling into weakness.Levels for all various indexes and MAs ImageI don't want to be misquoted as calling top😅 but i urge you to do the same exercise on those charts
$SPY: Hold, Don't Rush New Trades
avatarjfsrevg
11-12

$ITA Trading: Managing Risk & Drawdown

My Friday entry on $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ using the M1 chart is an ideal example to demonstrate 33%/66% sell stops and 33% batches of sizing out. I want to highlight that you don’t need a lower timeframe chart for entry when structuring a trade around an opening range reclaim or breakout since the daily live candle already captures the full high-low range as it forms.When I’m positioned in a trade that doesn’t hit layer 1 (33%) or layer 2 (66%) stops within T+3, it’s typically a strong runner, often yielding 5R+ based on my sell rules. This year, I’ve had winning trades as high as 51R (which would be +$510K on a $10K risk position), 4 trades at 20R+, and 11 at 10R+, with my max monthly win rate at a low of 31.6%. I am wrong
$ITA Trading: Managing Risk & Drawdown
avatarjfsrevg
11-11

Customized Spreadsheet for Trading

I don’t share the base template of my spreadsheet because there are already many good, more automated ones available, particularly Google Sheets-based (mine is Excel and a little simplified some may find😅)However, what I strongly recommend is building a spreadsheet tailored to your own trading history and statistics. If you're a low win-rate but high RRR trader like me, the focus should be on improving your losing trades—cutting them quickly and sequentially before hitting the intended stop loss. I wrote often about a simple 33%/66% stop loss accompanied by 33% sizing out at each level I swear by because it's the only optimal solution I could find through the years to enhance R loss reduction but also not destroy profit potential from cutting sizes out too early. By reducing your net R los
Customized Spreadsheet for Trading
avatarjfsrevg
11-11

$RBLX - Showing a similar extended base structure

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ - Showing a similar extended base structure and YoY quarterly sales growth to $Toast, Inc.(TOST)$ $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ $Veeva(VEEV)$ $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ in Tech sector.Many of these names have bases extending beyond 2 years. If they’ve truly bottomed out, there’s still opportunity, even with UPST. A more favorable risk-reward entry would be to seek an opportunity in pullback forming a wedge or flag structure, setting up for a VCP-based entry with high RVOL imho.The key is achieving the tightest entry (relative to larger position sizing) and
$RBLX - Showing a similar extended base structure
avatarjfsrevg
11-10

High Relative Volume as a Key Clue for Potential Growth Stock Breakouts

High Relative Volume as a Key Clue for Potential Growth Stock BreakoutsThis is hands down my favorite scan and my top priority screener. I removed the price compression filter to analyzes the strongest Year-to-Date performers from the sorted list. While some lacked a structured setup (like consolidation, ascending base, or bullish downward wedge) before their price move, one consistent feature is the high RVOL print during the initial run. $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ $Red Cat Holdings Inc.(RCAT)$ $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$
High Relative Volume as a Key Clue for Potential Growth Stock Breakouts
avatarjfsrevg
11-08

Major indexes are hitting new all-time highs

Major indexes are hitting new all-time highs, but participation isn’t broad across all market sectors. Here’s a simplified top-down view from today’s close, sorted by 1-month relative strength, highlighting areas that contributed—and those that didn’t.Sectoral Level:Leading Cap Weighted SPDR Sector (1-Month RS 100%): $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ (Note: XLK at 67% as it did not reach a 1-Month High) Lagging Cap Weighted SPDR Sector (1-Month RS 0%): $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$
Major indexes are hitting new all-time highs
avatarjfsrevg
11-07

Daily Charts - 18 Stocks With Triple-Digit (%) EPS Beat

Daily Charts - 18 Stocks With Triple-Digit (%) EPS Beat
avatarjfsrevg
11-06

$GRAB – Southeast Asia’s SuperApp

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ (RS Rating 87)– Southeast Asia’s SuperApp and Acquirer of $Uber(UBER)$ ’s SEA Operations in 2018A 30-month ascending triangle base with seven consecutive quarters of YoY sales growth, currently breaking above the base high and forming a bullish flag pattern. Next earnings report is scheduled for November 12th, after hours.This is a must download app if you are traveling to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines and Myanmar. It makes traveling much easier.Develop a balanced mindset, manage risk well, and adhere to fixed sell rules rather than trying to predict outcomes, and much of the internal struggle will lessen.Image
$GRAB – Southeast Asia’s SuperApp
avatarjfsrevg
11-04

ADR%: Examining Trend-Following vs. Range-Expansive Move Behavior

I received an overwhelming response and numerous DMs (apologies if my replies are delayed, as I’m working to respond to each message constructively) across platforms, including LinkedIn and IG, about my recent post on the top 100 performing stocks (YTD basis), which included a breakdown of some simple key data. I also expanded the data for everyone's deep dive by sharing the full list of the top 100 % gainers from each year since 2018 without filter. I wish to use this post to clarify in case anyone misinterprets how to apply the ADR% filter in their screening criteria.Here’s an overlay of the historical ADR% indicator highlighting two types of +70% upward moves within the same quarter. I’ve selected four stocks with varying prices, share structures, sector/group, floats, and trading volum
ADR%: Examining Trend-Following vs. Range-Expansive Move Behavior
avatarjfsrevg
11-03

This week’s top 20 growth stock ideas

This week’s top 20 growth stock ideas, categorized by industry groupSemiconductors $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ Precious Metals / Other Metals/Minerals $Fortuna Silver Mines(FSM)$ $Ur-Energy(URG)$ Packaged Software / Internet Software/Services $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SentinelOne, Inc(S)$ $Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$
This week’s top 20 growth stock ideas
avatarjfsrevg
11-02

Review the last 20-session $SPY vs breadth compilation

Review the last 20-session $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ vs breadth compilation in the comments—were there any warning signs to today's sell off? (Latest deterioration reflects today’s close)Do comment to expand your thought and analysis or using additional breadth indicators so I can compare them.ImageEven without any technical overextension in indexes or sector ETFs, this is a good review if breadth is the only reliable indicator to spot underlying deterioration beneath the surface this monthIf there’s any debate that yesterday’s move was due to end-of-month trading, which often tends to lead to a sell-off, I have the last 92 end-of-month data points to referenceImageresult for end of month data on SPYImage
Review the last 20-session $SPY vs breadth compilation
avatarjfsrevg
11-01

The Month-End Review: A Timely Reflection

The Month-End Review: A Timely ReflectionWith the month ending on a sharp market sell-off, it’s an ideal time to thoroughly review each trade and execution decision from the whole month. Trade by trade, relook at your thought process and decision-making. It can be discouraging to have participated in certain thematic stocks, only to finish flat or even in the red from being too quick to progress our exposure or too comfortable (complacent) —something I suffered myself and a wake up call I need be sharp and not sloppy. It's actually incredibly difficult to trade up the market because everything even on relative weakness has set up as well.Still, there are valuable insights to be gained here that can help refine our trading habits for the long term.
The Month-End Review: A Timely Reflection

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